桴瑰㨯⽷睷睥瀮潲朮据웗??맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 췢붻뻶닟퇐뺿훐뗄샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽?췵쏹쏹???ꆾ쓚죝쳡튪ꆿ†ퟷ캪췢붻뻶닟톧죽듳쒣쪽횮튻ꎬ샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽죏캪맺볒벴웤뻶닟헟ꎬ늢볙짨뻶닟헟뫍뻶닟뗄쮼캬맽돌쫇샭탔뗄ꆣ쯼틔맅뗤쿖쪵훷틥캪쮼쿫믹뒡ꎬ퓋폃늩?샭싛럖컶뻶닟맽돌뫍쿠펦뫳맻ꆣ퓚헢룶쒣쪽훐ꎬퟶ돶뻶닟뗄죋쫇쮭틑뺭컞맘뷴튪ꎬ훘뗣쫇뻶닟쫇튻룶샭탔럖컶뫍톡퓱뗄맽돌ꆣ퓚췢붻뻶닟퇐뺿훐ꎬ늩?싛쫇샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽뗄릤뻟ꆣ폃늩?싛럖컶췢붻뻶닟뗄풭샭쫇ꎺ볙짨ꆪ췆샭ꎨ퇝틯ꎩꆪ뷡맻ꎨ뻶닟ꎩꆣ?ꆾ맘볼듊ꆿ?췢붻뻶닟ꎻ샭탔톡퓱ꎻ늩?싛ꪥ?ꆾퟷ헟볲뷩ꆿ†췵쏹쏹ꎬ훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎퇐뺿쯹맺볊헾훎퇐뺿쫒뢱퇐뺿풱ꆣꎨ놱뺩†폊뇠ꎺ〷㌲ꎩ?ꆾ훐춼럖샠뫅ꆿ⁄㠰ꆾ컄쿗뇪쪶싫ꆿ?ꆾ컄헂뇠뫅ꆿ‱〰??㤵㔰⠲〰㌩ㄱ?〰ㄴ?〶???퓚맺볊헾훎훐ꎬ탐캪쳥뗄뮥뚯뚼쫇폐쏷좷뗄뛔췢헾닟쒿뗄뗄탐캪ꆣ탐캪쳥쓜럱쪵쿖ퟔ벺뗄쒿뗄ꎬ좡뻶폚쓜럱훆뚨늢쪵쪩쫊떱뗄뛔췢헾닟ꆣ폫헢퇹튻훖쿖쪵뗄탨튪쿠쫊펦ꎬ퓚맽좥뗄㔰쓪훐ꎬ폐맘췢붻뻶닟ꎨ景牥楧渠灯汩捹散楳楯渠浡歩湧ꎭ䙐䑍ꎩ뗄퇐뺿퓚컷랽맺볒쳘뇰쫇쏀맺훰붥랢햹웰살ꎬ늢ퟮ훕돉캪맺볊헾훎퇐뺿훐튻룶훘튪톧뿆ꆣ헢쏅톧뿆뗄훷횼ꎬ뻍쫇퇐뺿뻶닟헟폫쯹뒦뮷뺳횮볤퓚늻춬닣듎짏뗄뮥뚯맽돌뫍뮥뚯쓚죝ꆣ뷸탐헢룶쇬폲뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뛔폚맺볊헾훎퇐뺿살쮵쫇늻뿉좱짙뗄ꆣ?뺭맽쫽쪮쓪뗄랢햹ꎬ췢붻뻶닟톧쇬폲훰붥탎돉죽룶샭싛뿲볜ꎺ벴틔늩?싛캪훷튪랽램뗄샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽ꆢ틔쾵춳싛뫍뿘훆싛캪랽램뗄맙쇅ퟩ횯쒣쪽뫍믹폚탄샭럖컶램뗄죏횪탄샭쒣쪽ꆣ헢죽훖쒣쪽뿉틔쮵릹돉쇋췢붻뻶닟샭싛뗄맇룉ꎬ쯼쏇럖뇰첽쳖쇋췢붻헾닟탎돉뗄췆샭맽돌ꆢퟩ횯맽돌뫍죏횪맽돌ꎬ퇐뺿뛔쿳럖쫴맺볒닣듎ꆢퟩ횯닣듎ꎨ浩摤汥?牡湧?ꎩ뫍룶죋닣듎ꆣ웤훐ꎬ뗚튻훖쒣쪽뫍틔웤캪믹뒡뗄늩?싛놻맺볊맘쾵톧뷧쫓캪훷쇷샭싛ꎬ펰쿬튲ퟮ듳ꎬ놻돆캪ꆰ헽쪽쒣쪽ꆱ믲ꆰ헽쪽볙짨ꆱꎨ景牭慬潤敬爠景牭慬獳畭灴楯?ꎩꆣꋙ??튻†췢붻뻶닟톧뗄평살폫쿠맘룅쓮??췢붻뻶닟톧쫇뻶닟뿆톧랢햹뗄닺컯ꆣㄸ쫀볍릤튵룯쏼횮뫳ꎬ컷랽맺볒훰붥돶쿖듳탍릤튵웳튵ꎬ폐쇋듳솿맜샭쪵볹뫍뻶닟쪵볹뗄듦퓚ꎬ쪹맜샭샭싛뫍뻶닟샭싛뗄돶쿖돉캪뿉쓜ꆣ쾵춳뮯뗄맜샭샭싛벴맜샭뿆톧퓚㈰쫀볍돵닅돶쿖ꎬ뛸ퟷ캪웤럖횧뗄뻶닟샭싛퓲쫇퓚짏쫀볍㔰쓪듺닅뾪쪼퓚맜샭톧뷧쇷탐ꆣ뻶닟뿆톧뗄탋웰폫컷쏉ꎨ䡥牢敲琠䅬數慮摥爠卩浯?ꎩ뗈죋뗄뎫떼폐맘ꎬ컷쏉놾죋튲틲웤뛔뺭볃ퟩ횯쓚뗄뻶닟돌탲뷸탐쇋뾪뒴탔퇐뺿ꎬ뛸믱뗃ㄹ㜸쓪억놴뛻뺭볃톧붱ꆣꋚ짏쫀볍㔰쓪듺ꎬ쯦ퟅ퇐뺿랽램뫍쇏뒦샭쫖뛎뗄룼탂뫍뷸늽ꎬ뻶닟뿆톧톸쯙놻틽죫웤쯻톧뿆ꎬ냼삨췢붻헾닟퇐뺿ꆣ? ꋙ 튻킩쏀맺듳톧헾훎쾵붲쫚늩?샭싛뗄뿎돌놻돆캪ꆰ헾훎톧훐뗄헽쪽쒣쪽ꆱꎨformal model in political scienceꎩꆣ샭탔톡퓱튲놻죏ퟷ쫇ꆰ헾훎샭싛믹뒡ꆱꎬ볻ꎺPeter C. Ordeshook, A Political Theory Primer, Routledge: Chapman and Hall Inc.,1992ꆣ ꋚ 뫕늩쳘ꆤ퇇샺즽듳ꆤ컷쏉ꎨ1916ꆫ2001ꎩꎬ퓸죎쏀맺뾨쓍믹ꆤ쏗슡듳톧뺭볃톧뷌쫚ꎬ훷튪훸ퟷ폐ꎺꆶ맜샭탐캪ꎺ뛔맜샭ퟩ횯뻶닟맽돌뗄퇐뺿ꆷꎨH. A. Simon, Administrative Behavior: A Study of DecisionꪲMaking Processes in Administrative Organization, New York: Macmillan Co.,1947.ꎩꆣ 1
맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 듓톧샭짏첽쳖췢붻뻶닟ꎬ쫗쿈펦듓룅쓮짏뛔헾닟ꎨ灯汩捹ꎩ폫뻶닟ꎨ摥捩獩潮ꎩ뷸탐쟸럖ꆣ퓚탭뛠죋쓔ퟓ샯ꎬퟶ돶뻶뚨ꎨ摥捩獩潮?浡歩湧ꎩ폫뻶뚨헾닟ꎨ灯汩捹?浡歩湧ꎩ쫇춬틥폯ꆣ뗄좷ꎬ뛾헟폐쏜쟐솪쾵ꎬ떫쯼쏇늢늻쫇튻믘쫂ꆣꪥ?헾닟헢룶룅쓮튻냣폃퓚뇈뻶뚨룼뿭랺뗄뗘랽ꎬ쫇룅삨탔뇈뷏잿뗄뻶뚨ꎬ뇭쿖캪튻ퟩ믲헟튻쾵쇐뻶뚨ꎻ춬쪱쯼폖몬폐뛔쒿뇪믲틢춼뗄닻쫶ꆣ퓚헢샯ꎬ쒿뇪ꎨ潢橥捴楶?ꎩ쫇횸죋쏇쳘뇰웚췻돶쿖뗄튻훖캴살ힴ첬ꎬ헢훖ힴ첬뇘탫쫇뻟쳥뗄ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ횻폐ힷ쟳쒳튻뻟쳥쒿뇪뗄뻶닟ퟩ횯믲쾵춳닅쫇폐틢틥뗄ꆣꋙ돽쒿뇪뫍틢춼횮췢ꎬ헾닟퓚쓚죝짏뮹펦냼삨솽룶튪쯘ꎺ튻룶쫇탐뚯ꎨ慣瑩潮ꎩꎬ벴틑뺭닉좡ꆢ헽퓚닉좡뫍벴붫닉좡뗄쓇킩탐뚯ꎻ쇭튻룶쫇맦퓲ꎨ牵汥ꎩꎬ벴탐뚯뗄횸쓏ꎨ杵楤?ꎩꆣ맦퓲춨뎣냼삨헢퇹벸룶랽쏦ꎺㄮ뛔캴살쒳훖ힴ뿶ퟶ돶랴펦뗄훷횼ꎨ獵扳瑡湣?ꎩꎬ죧랴뛔쪲쎴맺볒뛔쪲쎴뗘랽틔쪲쎴탎쪽죫쟖ꎻ㈮ퟶ돶쒳훖쳘쫢랴펦뗄쳵볾쫇쪲쎴ꎬ벴퓚쪲쎴쟩뿶쿂닅펦ퟶ돶헢퇹뗄랴펦ꎻ㌮폐맘캴살쫂볾믲ힴ뿶뗄뷢쫍ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ헾닟뻍쫇뛔틑뺭돶쿖ꆢ헽퓚돶쿖믲뿉쓜믡돶쿖뗄컊쳢ꆢ쫂볾쯹좷뚨뗄탐뚯랽헫뫍탐뚯맦퓲ꎬ틔벰뛔탐뚯뫳ힴ뿶뗄뷢쫍ꆣꋚ?뻶닟쫇듓릫죏뗄ꆢ쫽솿폐쿞쟒틉컊짐듦뗄랽낸ꎨ灲潪散?ꎩ훐쳴톡돶퓚뻶닟헟뾴살믡떼훂캴살쒳훖쳘뚨ힴ뿶뗄랽낸뗄맽돌ꎨ灲潣敳?ꎩꆣꋛ췢붻뻶닟톧퇐뺿뗄쫇맺볒췢붻헾닟뗄훆뚨맽돌ꆣꆰ췢붻헾닟ꆱ폫ꆰ뛔췢헾닟ꆱ퓚훐컄샯폐쪱쫇폐쟸뇰뗄ꎬ떫퓚펢컄쫇춬튻듊ퟩꎬ벴ꆰ景牥楧渠灯汩捹ꆱꆣ췢붻뻶닟ꎨ景牥楧渠灯汩捹?摥捩獩潮?浡歩湧ꎩ폐쪱튲놻틫ퟶꆰ뛔췢헾닟훆뚨ꆱꆣꋜ?ퟷ캪맺볒뗄튻훖릫릲헾닟ꎬ뛔췢헾닟쯹헫뛔뗄쫇놾맺맜쾽랶캧횮췢뗄쫂컱ꎬ쫇ꆰ뛔쯻맺헾뢮ꆢ헾뢮볤ퟩ횯ꆢ럇헾뢮ퟩ횯뫍맺볊뮷뺳훐뗄룷훖맘쾵ꎬ폐틢믲컞틢뗘룸폨펰쿬뗄릫릲헾닟ꆣꆱꋝ뮪삳쪿ꎨ坩汬楡洠坡汬慣?ꎩ죏캪ꎺꆰ췢붻헾닟쫇냑쏱ퟥ맺볒폫웤맺볊뮷뺳솬뷓웰살뗄헾훎ꆱꆣꋞ춬뛔쓚헾닟쿠뇈ꎬ뛔췢헾닟춬퇹쫇탎돉폚튻맺횮쓚뗄헾닟ꎬ늻춬뗣퓚폚쯼쫇횸쿲믲펦폃폚맺볒뗄췢늿뮷뺳훐ꆣ?폫웤쯻샠탍뗄뻶닟쿠뇈ꎬ췢붻뻶닟폐ퟅퟔ벺뗄쳘쫢탔ꆣ쪩쓎뗂죏캪ꎬ뫳헟폐룶훘튪쳘뗣ꎺ??쒿뇪ꆢ볆뮮벰뷢쫍뗄랶캧룼듳ꎻ㈮뛔쿳룼엓퓓늢믡듸살뗐틢뫍늻싺ꎻ㌮탨튪벯훐뗄늻춬맛뗣룼뛠ꎻ㐮뻶닟뮷뺳룼볓뢴퓓뫍늻좷뚨ꎬ뷡맻튲룼쓑틔풤닢뫍뿘훆ꎻ㔮탅쾢살풴룼맣삫쟒늻뿉뾿ꎬ탅쾢럖샠릹돉쳘뇰컊쳢ꎻ㘮쿠뛔좱짙쪵퇩뫍훘뢴뗄믺믡ꎻ㜮ퟩ횯킧싊뫍헾닟뫳맻쓑틔에뛏ꎻ㠮룼폐뇘튪퇐뺿쓇킩컞램싺ퟣퟮ뗍튪쟳뗄톡퓱ꎻ㤮에뛏컊쳢탔훊쯹탨쪱볤룼뎤ꎻ?룼폐뿉쓜돶쿖믹놾볛횵맛뗄돥춻뫍좫쏦췗킭뗄뇘튪탔ꆣꋟ?평폚뛔췢헾닟뻶닟폚맺쓚ꎬ쪵쪩폚맺췢ꎬ틲듋췢붻뻶닟톧뗄퇐뺿뛔쿳볈냼삨맺쓚헾훎뇤솿ꎬ튲냼삨맺볊헾훎뇤솿ꎻ웤쓚죝볈짦벰헾훎톧폖짦벰맺볊헾훎톧ꆣ헽쫇평폚헢훖뿧톧뿆뗄쳘뗣ꎬ췢붻뻶닟톧늻떫솪뷓웰헢솽룶럖쫴늻춬닣듎ꎨ汥癥?ꎩꆢ룷폐ퟔ벺뗄룅쓮ꆢ볙짨뫍랽램뗄쇬폲ꎬ뛸쟒퓚랽램짏뮹쪹폃쇋탅쾢싛ꆢ뿘훆싛ꆢ쾵춳싛ꆢ퓋돯톧ꆢퟩ횯샭싛ꆢ죏횪샭싛뗈ꎬ릹돉쇋맺볊헾훎톧폫웤쯻짧믡뿆톧뗄붻닦늿럖ꆣ? ꋙ Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, eds., Foreign ꪩPolicyꪪ Decision Making, New York: Free Press of Glencoe,1962,. ꋚ Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, eds., Foreign ꪩPolicyꪪ Decision Making, New York: Free Press of Glencoe,1962, -85. ꋛ Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, eds., Foreign ꪩPolicyꪪ Decision Making, New York: Free Press of Glencoe, 1962, . ꋜ 펢컄폐쪱튲킴캪foreign policy making믲foreign policy formation뗈ꆣ ꋝ Werner J. Feld, American Foreign Policy: Aspirations and Reality, New York: John Wiley,1984,-3.틽ퟔꎺꏛ죕ꏝퟴ쳙펢럲훸ꎬ췵쿾뇵틫ꎺꆶ뛔췢헾닟ꆷꎬ놱뺩ꎺ뺭볃죕놨돶냦짧ꎬ1990쓪냦ꎬ뗚4튳ꆣ ꋞ William Wallace, Foreign Policy and the Political Process, London:Macmillan,1971,. ꋟ Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, eds., Foreign ꪩPolicyꪪ Decision Making, New York: Free Press of Glencoeꎬ1962,. 2
맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 퓚맺볊헾훎톧뿆ꎬ췢붻헾닟럖컶ꎨ景牥楧渠灯汩捹湡汹獩?ꎭ䙐?ꎩ쫇튻룶훘튪뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ뛸췢붻뻶닟톧쫇췢붻헾닟럖컶뗄튻늿럖ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ췢붻헾닟럖컶뗄쓚죝냼삨솽랽쏦ꎺ뗚튻쫇헾닟퇐뺿ꎬ벴듓맺볊맘쾵뗄뷇뛈럖컶뫍풤닢튻맺췢붻헾닟뗄쒿뇪ꆢ쓚죝ꆢ풭틲ꆢ뮷뺳뗈틲쯘ꎬ첽쯷맺볒췢붻헾닟뗄샺쪷뺭퇩뫍뷌통ꎬ퇐뺿뻶닟헟죧뫎좷뚨맺볒샻틦뫍뛔맺볒샻틦뗄ힷ쟳춾뺶뗈ꎻ뗚뛾쫇뻶닟퇐뺿ꎬ벴폃웤쯻톧뿆뗄퇐뺿랽램럖컶췢붻뻶닟뗄믺훆뫍맽돌ꎬ틔벰헢킩믺훆폫맽돌뛔헾닟훆뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ??뛾†뒫춳쿖쪵훷틥폫췢붻뻶닟?†?톧훐뗄샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽??퓚맺볊맘쾵훐ꎬ탐캪쳥뮥뚯뗄훷튪뇭쿖뻍쫇뛔췢헾닟뗄훆뚨폫쪵쪩ꆣ컞싛쫇맅듺얷훞뗄돇냮맺볒뫍훐맺뗄뒺쟯햽맺ꎬ뮹쫇췾쮹쳘랥샻퇇뫍풼횮뫳쯹닺짺뗄훷좨맺볒ꎬ뚼탨튪쒳훖탎쪽뗄뛔췢헾닟뫍뛔췢헾닟퇐뺿ꆣ뗚튻듎쫀뷧듳햽횮뫳ꎬ맺볊헾훎ퟷ캪튻쏅톧뿆헽쪽닺짺ꎬ췢붻헾닟럖컶튻횱냩쯦ퟅ헢룶톧뿆뗄랢햹ꆣ늻맽ꎬ횱떽㈰쫀볍㔰쓪듺ꎬ뛔췢붻헾닟뗄퇐뺿뮹횻쫇헾닟럖컶ꎨ灯汩捹湡汹獩?ꎩꎬ늢늻쫇뻶닟럖컶ꎨ摥捩獩潮湡汹獩?ꎩꎬ뺡맜헾닟럖컶믡짦벰떽뻶닟컊쳢ꆣꪥ?ㄮ쿖쪵훷틥뛔췢붻헾닟뗄퇐뺿ꪥ?뛾햽횮뫳ꎬ틔쒦룹쯷캪듺뇭뗄튻엺톧헟쫗듎붨솢쇋맺볊헾훎톧뿆훐뗄튻룶뇈뷏췪헻뗄샭싛쳥쾵ꆪꆪ쿖쪵훷틥ꎬ늢톸쯙햼뻝훷떼뗘캻ꆣ헢룶샭싛쳥쾵뗄튻룶훘튪늿럖뻍쫇쿖쪵훷틥뗄췢붻헾닟톧ꆣ췵틝훛퓚ꆶ컷랽맺볊헾훎톧ꎺ샺쪷폫샭싛ꆷ튻쫩훐맩쓉쇋웟룶랽쏦뗄쓚죝ꎬ횸돶ꆰ듓㈰쫀볍훐튶뗄쏀맺췢붻헾닟톧ꎬ떽뷱쳬뛠쫽컷랽맺볒뗄뛔췢헾닟ꎬ맡뒩ퟅ튻쳵ꆮ샻틦ꎭ좨솦ꎭ욽뫢ꆯ뗄듖듳쿟쳵ꆣꆱꋙ쿖쪵훷틥죏캪ꎬ맺볊헾훎쫇좨솦헾훎ꎨ灯睥爠灯汩瑩捳ꎩꎬ맺볒뛔좨솦뗄ힷ쟳풴ퟔ죋뗄놾탔뫍맺볊짧믡뗄컞헾뢮ힴ첬ꆣ쿖쪵훷틥뗄췢붻헾닟톧쫇캧죆헢튻맺볒뚯믺샭싛햹뾪뗄ꆣ?쒦룹쯷죏캪ꎬ췢붻쫇맺볒좨솦뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ쯼뗄죎컱쫇ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ룹뻝틑펵폐뗄ꆢ잱퓚뗄쪵솦좷뚨맺볒뗄쒿뇪ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ움맀뇰맺뗄쒿뇪벰웤캪쪵쿖헢킩쒿뇪틑펵폐뗄잱솦뫍쪵솦ꎻ뗚죽ꎬ좷뚨쮫랽뗄쒿뇪퓚뫎훖돌뛈짏뿉틔쿠죝ꎻ뗚쯄ꎬ뻶뚨뫍쪵쪩쫊뫏폚쪵쿖맺볒쒿뇪뗄쫖뛎ꆣꋚ믹탁룱횸돶ꎬ뫏램훈탲뗄믹뒡늻튻뚨쫇헽틥ꎬ웤믹놾풭퓲쫇폎쾷맦퓲캪듳맺쯹뷓쫜ꎬ붫맺볊짧믡뇤돉튻룶낢슡ꎨ䅲潮ꎩ쯹쮵뗄ꆰ춬훊쾵춳ꆱꎨ桯浯来湥潵猠獹獴敭ꎩꆣ틲캪ꎬ퓚튻룶틬훊쾵춳ꎨ桥瑥牯来湥潵猠獹獴敭ꎩ훐ꎬ룯쏼탔솦솿믡쳴햽쿖듦맺볊짧믡늢틔뻼놸뺺주좡듺췢붻쫖뛎ꆣ믹폚뛔ㄹ쫀볍듳맺볤쎻폐랢짺훘듳햽헹풭틲뗄첽쯷뫍뛔솽듎쫀뷧듳햽뷌통뗄럖컶ꎬ믹탁룱죏캪㈰쫀볍뫳웚췢붻헾닟퇐뺿뗄튻룶쏷좷뛸폖뫋탄뗄죎컱ꎬ뻍쫇틔쪷캪본ꎬ퓋폃췢붻쫖뛎훘쯜튻룶뷏짙돥춻뗄맺볊짧믡ꎬ폃튻룶뿧풽늻춬컄뮯ꆢ틢쪶탎첬ꆢ샺쪷뺭샺뫍맺볒훆뛈뗄릲춬폯퇔좥뚨틥맺볊훈탲뗄놾훊ꎨ䭩獳楮来爠ㄹ㘹ꎩꆣꋛ?퓚쿖쪵훷틥랶쪽훐ꎬ튻룶믹놾뗄맛뗣뻍쫇맺볒쫇샭탔뗄탐캪헟ꎨ牡瑩潮慬捴潲ꎩꆣꆰ퓚쒱쟳좨솦폫낲좫뗄쪱뫲ꎬ맺볒닉좡뗄쫇폐쒿뗄뗄헾닟ꎬ믲헟쮵돶폚훷맛웚췻쫇내헕릦샻풭퓲 ꋙ 췵틝훛ꎺꆶ컷랽맺볊헾훎톧ꎺ샺쪷폫샭싛ꆷꎬ짏몣ꎺ짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧ꎬ1998쓪4퓂냦ꎬ뗚88ꆫ90튳ꆣ ꋚ Kenneth Thompson, Masters of International Thought, Louisiana: Louisiana State University Press,1980, -530.틽ퟔꎺ쓟쫀탛뗈ꎺꆶ떱듺컷랽맺볊맘쾵샭싛ꆷꎬ짏몣ꎺ뢴떩듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ2001쓪7퓂냦ꎬ뗚71튳ꆣ ꋛ 틽ퟔꎺ Sten Rynning & Stefano Guzzini, ꆰRealism and Foreign Policy Analysis,ꆱCopenhagen Peace Research InstituteꎬDecember2001,-5,http:// . dk/publications/. 3
맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 믲샭탔맦랶탐쫂ꆣꆱꋙ쿖쪵훷틥죏캪ꎬ맺볊헾훎톧쯹퇐뺿뗄뻍쫇퓚컞헾뢮뗄맺볊쳥쾵훐ꎬ맺볒ퟷ캪훷튪탐캪쳥ힷ쟳좨솦폫낲좫뗄맽돌ꆣ헢룶맽돌쫇샭탔뗄ꎬ벴폃폐쒿뗄뗄헾닟헹좡ퟔ짭뮷뺳뗄ퟮ폅뫍ퟔ짭샻틦폫좨솦뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ쿖쪵훷틥뗄헢튻샭탔탐캪볙쮵ꎬ돉캪췢붻뻶닟톧ퟔ떮짺틔살ꎬ펰쿬ퟮ듳ꆢ펦폃ퟮ맣랺ꆢ톧헟ퟮ뛠뗄샭탔톡퓱톧엉뗄믹뒡ꆣ?내헕쿖쪵훷틥맛뗣ꎬ췢붻헾닟뗄쒿뇪뫍쫖뛎쫇틔맺볒샻틦캪돶랢뗣뫍맩쯞뗄ꆣ맺볒샻틦튻떩좷뚨ꎬ뻶닟뻍쫇뛔쳘뚨맺볊뮷뺳쿂뗄쒿뇪뫍쫖뛎뗄ힼ좷볆쯣ꆣ튻룶헾훎훆뛈캪쇋퓚늻뛏뇤뮯뗄뮷뺳훐짺듦뫍랢햹ꎬ뇘탫럻뫏쳘뚨뗄릦쓜탔튪쟳ꎨ晵湣瑩潮慬敱畩獩瑥?ꎩꎬ췢붻헾닟횻쫇헾훎훆뛈쫊펦뮷뺳믲뿘훆뮷뺳뗄튻훖믺훆ꆣ뮻뻤뮰쮵ꎬ헾훎훆뛈폐샻틦ꎨ릦쓜탔튪쟳ꎩꎬ췢붻헾닟뗄쒿뗄쫇놣헏헢훖샻틦뗄릤뻟ꆣ컊쳢퓚폚ꎬ헢킩헾훎훆뛈뗄샻틦뺿뺹쫇쪲쎴ꎬ쪲쎴퇹뗄탐뚯닅쓜싺ퟣ헢킩샻틦ꆣ?좻뛸ꎬ맺볒믲헾훎훆뛈늻믡ퟔ벺뇭듯ퟔ벺뗄탨튪ꎬ쯹틔에뚨ힷ쟳쪲쎴퇹뗄췢붻쒿뇪뫍톡퓱쪲쎴퇹뗄쫖뛎쫇튻룶훷맛맽돌ꆣ맺볒쇬떼죋뫍릫훚죏캪맺볒탨튪쪲쎴폫룷ퟔ뗄뺭퇩뫍볛횵톡퓱폐맘ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ쿠춬뗄뻶닟뛔늻춬짧믡좺쳥뗄펰쿬쫇늻춬뗄ꎬ믡퓬돉튻킩죋뗃듳폚쪧ꎬ쇭튻킩죋쪧듳폚뗃ꆣ뫜뛠쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죋쏇컞램퓚뾼싇맺볒헻쳥샻틦쪱ꎬ췪좫냚췑룶죋뫍췅쳥샻틦뗄펰쿬ꎬ뗃쪧럖엤뗄뚷헹쯹쳥쿖뗄헽쫇헾훎믮뚯뗄틢틥ꆣ?컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ쿖쪵훷틥퇐뺿뗄쫇췢붻뗄헾닟뚯믺ꆢ쓚죝뫍뷡맻ꎬ쪹폃뗄쫇뺭퇩훷틥뗄샺쪷뫍헜톧뗄랽램럖컶췢붻헾닟뗄ꆰ훊ꆱꆣ뒫춳쿖쪵훷틥럖컶췢붻헾닟뗄ퟅ퇛뗣쫇맺볊쳥쾵훐뗄좨솦욽뫢ꎨ扡污湣攠潦⁰潷敲ꎩꎭ쳥쾵쟽뚯ꎨ獹獴敭物癥?ꎩ뫍듳맺뗄췢붻벰컄뮯뒫춳ꎭ맺볒쟽뚯ꎨ獴慴??摲楶敮ꎩꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ쿖쪵훷틥ퟷ캪맺볊헾훎뗄훷쇷샭싛냑췢붻헾닟럅퓚뫪맛뗄헾훎샺쪷놳뺰쿂뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ캪췢붻뻶닟퇐뺿쳡릩쇋쫀뷧맛믹뒡ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ쿖쪵훷틥폫뫳살돶쿖뗄췢붻뻶닟톧퓚퇐뺿랽램뫍뛔쿳짏늻춬ꆣ잰헟쫇폃샺쪷훷틥ꎨ뺭퇩훷틥ꎩ뗄랽램퓚뫪맛짏냑컕맺볊쳥쾵훐뗄맺볒췢붻헾닟뗄뚯믺뫍쓚죝ꎻ뫳헟쫇폃뿆톧훷틥뗄랽램럖컶룶죋뫍ퟩ횯뻶뚨췢붻헾닟뗄맽돌ꆣ?짏쫀볍㔰쓪듺쒩ꎬퟔ좻뿆톧퓚뛠룶톧뿆뗄춻웆탔뷸햹ꎬ탅쾢싛ꆢ쾵춳싛ꆢ뿘훆싛ꆢ늩?싛ꆢ뮷뺳릤돌뗈탂뗄톧뿆뫍돉맻럗럗쏦쫀ꆣ쏦뛔죕쟷뢴퓓뗄쫀뷧뫍튻룶ꆰ룯쏼ꆱ뗄쪱듺ꎬ짧믡뿆톧뾪쪼쿲ퟔ좻뿆톧뾿슣ꎬ붫ꆰ펲ꆱ뗄뿆톧쫖뛎퓋폃떽ꆰ죭ꆱ뗄퇐뺿쇬폲훐ꆣ맺볊헾훎톧뷧돶쿖쇋ꆰ탐캪훷틥ꆱ믲ꆰ뿆톧훷틥ꆱ톧엉ꎬ잿뗷맺볊맘쾵샭싛뗄뿆톧탔ꎨ뿉틔맛달ꆢ볆솿뫍훘뢴ꎩꎬ쿲뒫춳쿖쪵훷틥뗄퇐뺿랽램쳡돶쇋쳴햽ꆣ맺볊헾훎톧뿆훐뗄췢붻뻶닟샭싛헽쫇퓚헢룶놳뺰쿂떮짺뗄ꎬ쯼듲웆쇋맺볊맘쾵뫍헾훎톧횮볤뗄뷧쿞ꎬꋚ룼볓힢훘캢맛쇬폲뗄퇐뺿ꆣ?㈮췢붻뻶닟ꎭ샭탔죋뗄톡퓱?샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽ꎨ牡瑩潮慬桯楣攠浯摥?ꎩ뗄헜톧믹뒡쫇쿖쪵훷틥ꎬ돶랢뗣쫇맺볒훐탄톧쮵틔벰맺볒샻틦ꆢퟔ훺뫍컞헾뢮ힴ첬뗈맛쓮ꆣ헽죧풼즪럲ꆤ쓎쯹쮵ꎬ헢튻볙짨쫇믹폚ꆰ틔맺볒캪훐탄뗄쿖쪵훷틥ꆱꎨ獴慴??捥湴物挠敡?汩獭ꎩꆣꋛ쒦룹쯷퓚쿖쪵훷틥쇹풭퓲훐뗄뗚튻쳵훐횸돶ꎺꆰ?튪샭뷢췢붻헾닟?컒쏇탨튪냑ퟔ벺훃폚헾훎볒뗄뗘캻ꎬ짨짭뒦뗘뗘좥뾼싇쯻쏇퓚쳘뚨뮷뺳쿂쯹폶떽뗄룷훖췢붻쓑쳢ꎬ컒쏇튪컊ퟔ벺ꎬ헾훎볒뿉쓜쏦쇙쓄킩뿉릩톡퓱뗄춾뺶ꎬꆭꆭ?틔벰퓚헢훖볈뚨뮷뺳쿂ꎬ헾훎볒뿉쓜믡톡퓱쓄튻룶샭탔뗄뷢뻶춾뺶ꆣ횻폐붫샭탔뗄볙짨폫쪵볊뗄쫂쪵벰웤뫳맻럅퓚튻웰ퟷ볬퇩ꎬ닅쓜뢳폨맺볊헾훎쫂쪵틔틢틥ꎬ닅믡쪹튻훖헾훎샭싛돉캪뿉쓜ꆣꆱꋜ떫쫇ꎬ샭탔톡퓱샭싛늻쫇듓헜톧믲샺쪷뗄뫪맛쫓뷇뛸쫇듓쮼캬쫓뷇뛔뻶닟헟뷸탐돩쿳뗄캢맛퇐뺿ꎬ닉폃뗄췪좫쫇탐캪훷틥뗄랽램ꎬ퓋폃뗄쫇뺭볃톧훐뗄늩?샭싛ꎬ ꋙ 샮짙뻼ꎺꆶ맺볊헾훎톧룅싛ꆷꎬ짏몣ꎺ짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧ꎬ2002쓪3퓂냦ꎬ뗚29ꆫ30튳ꆣ ꋚ 듋잰ꎬ헾훎뻶닟쫇헾훎톧훐릫릲헾닟ꎨpublic policyꎩ퇐뺿뗄튻늿럖ꆣ ꋛ 틽ퟔꎺMichael Clarke and Brian White, eds., Understanding ꪩForeignꪪ Policy, Vermont: Edward Elgar,1989,ꆣ ꋜ ꏛ쏀ꏝ몺쮹ꆤ쒦룹쯷훸ꎬ탬뗈틫ꎺꆶ맺볒볤헾훎ꆪ톰쟳좨샻폫뫍욽뗄뚷헹ꆷꎬ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺죋쏱릫낲듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ1990쓪냦ꎬ뗚5튳ꆣ 4
맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 퇐뺿뛔쿳쫇뻶닟맽돌뛸늻쫇헾닟놾짭ꆣ?펢폯훐샭탔ꎨ牡瑩潮慬ꎩ튻듊살ퟔ삭뚡폯牡瑩?ꎬ웤몬틥폫샭훇ꎨ牥慳潮ꎩ튻듊쪮럖쿠쯆ꎬ쫇샭훇췆샭뗄펦폃ꆣ샭탔뗄뚨틥춨뎣쫇뛔쒿뗄폫쫖뛎횮볤맘쾵뗄쏨쫶ꆣ엁즭쮹ꎨ呡汣潴琠偡牳潮?ꎩ?뷌쫚퓚ꆶ짧믡탐캪뗄뷡릹ꆷ튻쫩훐쮵ꎺꆰ샭탔탐캪틢캶ퟅ뛔쳵볾퓊탭뗄쒿뇪뷸탐ힷ쟳ꎬ웤쫖뛎놻뺭퇩뿆톧횤쏷쫴폚뿉톡랶캧뫍퓚놾훊짏ퟮ쫊뫏폚뛔헢룶쒿뗄뗄ힷ쟳ꆱꆣꋙ샭탔쫇튻훖뇦뇰뫍췆샭ꎬ쫇뛔욫뫃ꎨ灲敦敲敮捥ꎩ뷸탐업탲늢ퟶ돶톡퓱뗄쓜솦ꆣ샭탔뻶닟늢늻틢캶ퟅ톡퓱싺틢뗄헾닟쒿뇪뫍쫖뛎ꎬ뛸쫇ꆰ듓늻릻뫃뗄톡퓱훐쳴돶뇈뷏뫃뗄ꆱꆣꋚ?컷랽컄뮯폐ퟅ샭탔럖컶뗄ꆰ훇헟ꆱꎨ桯浯慰楥湳ꎩ뒫춳ꆣ샽죧ꎬꆶ뻉풼쪥뺭ꆤ틔쮹쳻볇ꆷ훐췵뫳틔쮹쳻ꎨ䕳瑨敲ꎩ듬냜듳뎼맾싼ꎨ䡡浡?ꎩ쏰뻸폌첫죋뗄맊쫂ꎬ뻍쫇늩?싛톧헟쮵쏷죋샠퓧웚샭탔탐캪뗄튻룶랶샽ꆣꋛ뢥삼뿋뛻ꎨ䩯獥灨⁆牡湫敬ꎩ횸돶ꎬ샭탔룅쓮퓚컷랽폐ퟅ짮뿌뗄컄뮯샓펡뫍얷훞훐탄훷틥즫닊ꎬ퓚튻킩컷랽죋뗄잱틢쪶샯ꎬ컷랽컄쏷쯹퓐폽돶뗄샭탔풭퓲뻟폐웕뇩횸떼틢틥ꆣ듓폯램짏뾴ꎬ샭탔튻듊ꎨ牡瑩潮慬楴?ꎩ쫇늻뿉쫽쏻듊ꎬ헢뻍업돽쇋웤쯻샭탔쾵춳듦퓚뗄뿉쓜ꎬ폫컷랽죋늻춬뗄웤쯻뗘쟸쏱ퟥ뗄쮼캬쾰맟뫍췆샭랽쪽뚼놻죏캪쫇럇샭탔ꆣ죋샠컄뮯톧헟뗄얬솦틑뺭쪹풽살풽뛠뗄컷랽죋횪뗀볛횵맛뗄컄뮯쿠뛔탔ꎬ떫늢캴쪹쯻쏇샭뷢듳쓔췆샭맽돌뗄컄뮯쿠뛔탔ꆣꋜ?샭탔쒣쪽뗄펦폃ꎬ쪹췢붻뻶닟쪮럖틗폚샭뷢ꆣ죧캬냍ꎨ卩摮敹⁖敲扡ꎩ쯹쮵ꎺꆰ죧맻뻶닟헟쫇샭탔뗄ꎬ횪뗀샭탔맦퓲뗄맛달헟뻍쓜릻퓚ퟔ벺뗄춷쓔훐훘쿖뻶닟맽돌ꎻ춬쪱ꎬ죧맻맛달헟쇋뷢뻶닟죋뗄쒿뗄쯹퓚ꎬ뮹쓜릻퓚풤횪웤좻뗄춬쪱횪웤쯹틔좻ꆣꆱꋝ쿔좻ꎬ횻튪좷뚨쇋샭탔탐캪쒣쪽뗄맦퓲ꎬ쓇쎴뻶닟헟뫍뻶닟맽돌뚼쫇볲떥틗뚮뗄ꆣ?내헕샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽ꎬ췢붻헾닟뚼쫇쒿뇪쏷좷쟒쪮럖샭훇뗄튻킩죋짮쮼쫬싇뗄뷡맻ꆣ쯻쏇쾵춳럖컶룷훖뿉쓜뗄헾닟톡퓱ꎬ틔쪵쿖맺볒뗄쒿뇪ꆣ퓚헢훖럖컶랽램훐ꎬ듺뇭늻춬맺볒뗄뻶닟헟쿱첨쟲ꎨ扩汬楡牤慬?ꎩ튻퇹쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꎬ뮷뺳뫍뛔뻶닟맽돌뗄뿘훆돉캪뻶뚨뛔췢헾닟뗄맘볼ꆣ웤훐폐죽룶훷튪룅쓮ꎺ뻶닟ꎨ摥捩獩潮ꎩꆢ뻶닟헟⡤散楳楯??浡步爩뫍뻶닟맽돌⡤散楳楯??浡?楮朠灲潣敳猩ꆣ뻶닟헟퓚뻶닟맽돌뗄튻뾪쪼뻍폐튻룶믲튻ퟩ쏷좷쒿뇪ꎬ쇐돶뿉쓜뗄탐뚯랽쿲ꎬ늢룹뻝뛔뢶돶ꎨ捯獴?ꎩ뫍쫕틦ꎨ条楮?ꎩ뗄뇈뷏뫍좨뫢ꎨ瑲慤??潦?ꎩ살움볛폫쎿튻룶헾닟톡퓱쿠뛔펦뗄뷡맻ꎬퟮ훕좷뚨쿠뛔쫕틦ퟮ듳뗄헾닟ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ샭탔뻶닟쒣쪽뗄뫋탄늻퓚폚쮭좥ퟶ뻶뚨ꎬ뛸쫇뻶닟놾짭쫇튻룶럖컶뫍톡퓱뗄맽돌ꎨ愠灲潣敳猠潦?慮慬祳楳ꎩꆣ?튻냣살쮵ꎬ췢붻뻶닟쫇퓚뾼싇쇋뛠룶탐뚯랽쿲횮뫳ퟶ돶뗄ꆣ퓚샭싛짏ꎬ뻶닟헟펦뾼싇퓚싟벭짏돉솢뗄쯹폐톡퓱ꎻ떫퓚쪵볹훐ꎬ뻶닟헟횻쓜뾼싇벸훖뿉쓜뗄톡퓱ꆣ퓚췢붻뻶닟쾵춳훐ꎬ벴쪹쫇쪮럖훇믛뗄죋ꎬ쯻쯹쓜뒦샭뗄뇤솿쫽쒿튲쫇폐쿞뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뻶닟훐뎣뎣돶쿖냑뢴퓓컊쳢볲떥뮯뗄쟩뿶ꎬ믲쫇돶쿖볆쯣뫍에뛏탔듭컳뗄쟩뿶ꆣ폫웕춨죋튻퇹ꎬ퓚뷴헅ꆢ욣샍ꆢ벲늡뗈ힴ첬쿂ꎬ췢붻뻶닟헟뒦샭컊쳢뗄쓜솦튲믡쿂붵ꆣꋞ?샭탔폫헽좷쫇솽믘쫂ꎬ뻶닟맽돌횻튪쫇뺭맽샭탔톡퓱뻍뫜쓑쮵쯼쫇럇샭탔뗄ꆣ횻폐떱뻶닟헟뺭맽럖컶뾴떽ퟮ폐샻톡퓱ꎬ떫돶폚룶죋랴뎣탄샭뛸ퟶ돶쇋웤쯻톡퓱쪱ꎬ뻶닟닅쫇럇샭탔뗄ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ퓚움맀뻶닟쪱ꎬ럖컶헟뛔샭탔룅쓮뗄펦폃쪮럖늻춬ꆣ튻킩죋듓쫖뛎톡퓱뗄훊솿돶랢ꎬ죏캪샭탔톡퓱뗄튪횼퓚폚좷뚨ퟮ뫏쫊폚쪵쿖쒿뗄뗄쫖뛎ꆣ쇭튻킩죋퓲잿뗷뻶닟돌탲뗄훊솿ꎬ힢훘뛔탅쾢뗄뒦샭뫍움맀ꎬ늢쟒룼뛠뗘붫샭탔톡퓱맽돌폫헾닟뫳맻쿠솪쾵ꆣ? ꋙ Talcott Parsons, The Structure of Social Action, 1937,.틽ퟔꎺJoseph Frankel, The Making of Foreign Policy, London: Oxford University Press,1963,. ꋚ Steven J. Brams, Rational Politics, Washington .:CQ Press,1985,Preface vi. ꋛ Steven J. Brams, Rational Politics, Washington .:CQ Press,1985,-21. ꋜ Joseph Frankel, The Making of Foreign Policy, London: Oxford University Press,1963,. ꋝ S. Verba,ꆰAssumptions of Rationality and Non-Rationality in Models of the International Systemꎬꆱin , ed., International Politics and ꪩForeignꪪ Policy, New York: Free Press,1969,. ꋞ John , Foreign Policy in Perspective, Holt: Rinehart and Winston Inc.,1970,. 5
맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 ?죽†늩?싛ꎨ条浥⁴桥潲???ꆪꆪ샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽뗄랽램싛??ꆰ늩?ꆱꎨ条浥ꎩ튻듊퓚펢컄훐뗄믹놾틢쮼쫇폎쾷ꆢ뇈주ꎬ맊뛸튲폐죋붫늩?싛틫돉폎쾷샭싛ꆣ퓚폎쾷ꆢ뇈주훐ꎬ뺡맜짭쳥틲쯘뫜훘튪ꎬ떫떱닎주룷랽뗄짭쳥쳵볾쿠닮컞벸쪱ꎬ볆쒱퓚뇈주훐뻍돉캪훁맘훘튪뗄틲쯘쇋ꆣ짵훁퓚쪵솦늻죧뛔쫖뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ춨맽쫊떱닟싔뗄퓋폃ꎬퟮ훕튲쓜좡쪤ꆣ훚쯹훜횪뗄쳯볉주십뗄맊쫂뻍쫇횤쏷ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ폎쾷뗄놳뫳쫇쒱싔횮헹ꆣ훐컄늩?뗄틢쮼쫇?웥ꎬ쿂웥놾짭쫇폎쾷뗄튻훖ꎬ떫룼잿뗷샭탔췆샭믲쒱싔뗄퓋폃ꎬ틲듋붫条浥?瑨敯特틫캪늩?싛뇈폎쾷샭싛룼쳹쟐ꆢ룼뒫짱ꆣ?††늩?싛쫇뛔폚쿠뮥틀듦ힴ뿶훐탐캪쳥뮥뚯맦싉뗄퇐뺿ꎬ쫇틔죋뗄샭탔쮼캬캪잰쳡뗄ꆣ쿠뮥틀듦쫇횸늩?훐죎뫎튻룶뻖훐죋쫜떽웤쯻뻖훐죋탐캪뗄펰쿬ꎻ랴맽살ꎬ쯻뗄탐캪튲펰쿬떽웤쯻뻖훐죋ꆣ평폚뻖훐죋뗄쿠뮥틀듦탔ꎬ늩?훐튻룶샭탔뗄뻶닟뇘뚨붨솢퓚풤닢웤쯻뻖훐죋뗄랴펦횮짏ꆣ뷸탐늩?쪱ꎬ튻룶뻖훐죋쫇붫ퟔ벺훃짭폚웤쯻뻖훐죋뗄캻훃ꎬ춨맽풤닢웤쯻뻖훐죋붫톡퓱뗄탐뚯살볆쯣ퟔ벺뗄믱틦몯쫽ꎨ灡祯晦畮捴楯?ꎩꎬ늢ퟮ훕뻶뚨ퟔ벺ퟮ샭쿫뗄탐뚯ꆣ?퓚㈰쫀볍㔰쓪듺틔잰ꎬ뛔췢붻뻶닟뗄퇐뺿뛠쫇닉폃맩쓉럖샠램ꎨ楮摵捴楯渠慮搠瑹灯汯杹ꎩꆣ퇐뺿헟뛔샺쪷짏룶죋ꆢ믺릹뫍맺볒뗄뻶닟탐캪뷸탐쏨쫶ꎬ듓쿖폐쫂샽뫍뺭퇩쫽뻝훐톰헒맦싉믲쒣쪽ꎬ쪹폃뗄쫇튻훖뺭퇩훷틥뗄랽램ꆣ틔ㄸ쫀볍틔살퓚ퟔ좻뿆톧쇬폲뗃떽맣랺펦폃뗄볙짨췆샭램ꎨ桹灯瑨整楣?摥摵捴楶?ꎩ캪놳뺰ꎬ늩?싛퓚㈰쫀볍㈰쓪듺뾪쪼돉캪쫽톧퇐뺿뗄튻룶쇬폲ꆣㄹ㐴쓪ꎬ쏀맺톧헟얦싼ꎨ䩯桮⁶潮⁎敵浡湮ꎩ뫍쒦룹쮹첹ꎨ佳歡爠䵯牧敮獴敲?ꎩ랢뇭ꆶ늩?싛뫍뺭볃탐캪ꆷꎬꋙ싊쿈붫늩?싛펦폃폚짧믡뿆톧ꎬ캪뺭볃톧쳘뇰쫇캢맛뺭볃톧쳡릩쇋뷢쫍뫍풤닢룶죋뫍볒춥뺭볃탐캪뗄랽램ꆣꋚ믱억놴뛻뺭볃톧붱뗄쓉쪲ꎨ䩯桮⁆⹎慳?ꎬ䩲?ꎩ퓚ㄹ㔲쓪붨솢뗄맘폚럇뫏ퟷ늩?훐뗄뻹뫢샭싛ꎨ乡獨⁅煵楬楢物畭ꎬㄹ㔰ꎯㄹ㔱ꎩꎬ캪늩?싛퓚맺볊맘쾵쇬폲뗄펦폃뾪뇙쇋뗀슷ꆣꋛㄹ㔴쓪ꎬ쏀맺헾훎뿆톧퓓횾랢뇭쇋뗚튻욪폐맘늩?싛뗄컄헂ꆶ뾼달좨솦퓚맺믡캯풱믡쾵춳훐럖엤뗄튻훖랽램ꆷꆣꋜ?㈰쫀볍㔰쓪듺틔뫳ꎬ맺볊맘쾵샭싛톧헟퓚늩?싛훐ퟛ뫏쇋탄샭톧ꆢ춳볆톧뫍짧믡톧뗄튻킩랽램ꎬ늢쾵춳뗘펦폃폚맺볊맘쾵쳘뇰쫇췢붻뻶닟쇬폲ꆣ웤훐훷튪듺뇭훸ퟷ폐ꎺ킻쇖ꎨ周潭慳⁃⸠卣桥汬楮ꎩ?뗄ꆶ돥춻닟싔ꆷꆢ삭늮웃쳘ꎨ䅮慴潬⁒慰潰潲?ꎩ뫍닩십ꎨ䅬扥牴⁍??䍨慭浡?ꎩ뗄ꆶ쟴춽삧뺳ꎺ뛔돥춻폫뫏ퟷ뗄퇐뺿ꆷꆢ늩삼쒷쮹ꎨ却敶敮⁊⸠䉲慭?ꎩ뗄ꆶ뎬벶듳맺뗄폎쾷ꎺ늩?싛퓚뎬벶듳맺돥춻퇐뺿훐뗄펦폃ꆷꆢ쒦싞ꎨ䩡浥猠䵯牲潷ꎩ뗄ꆶ헾훎뿆톧훐뗄늩?싛ꆷꆣꋝ맘폚늩?싛ꎬ뮹쳘뇰펦쳡벰뾨뛻ꆤ뛠틁웦뗄ꆶ맺볊맘쾵횮럖컶ꆷ뫍쒪뛙ꆤ뾨 ꋙ John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton: Princeton University Press,1944. ꋚ Pierre Allan and Christian Schmidt, eds., Game Theory and International Relations, Vermont: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,1994,ꆰIntroductionꆱ. ꋛ 쓉쪲뻹뫢ꎺ룸뚨쓣뗄닟싔ꎬ컒뗄닟싔쫇컒ퟮ뫃뗄닟싔ꎻ룸뚨컒뗄닟싔ꎬ쓣뗄닟싔쫇쓣뗄ퟮ뫃닟싔ꆣ헢샯ꆰퟮ뫃닟싔ꆱ횸퓚쯹폐뗄뿉쓜닟싔훐ꎬ쎻폐웤쯻죎뫎닟싔쓜듸살뇈룃닟싔룼듳뗄샻틦ꆣ ꋜ Pierre Allan and Christian Schmidt, Game Theory and International Relations, Vermont:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,1994,ꆰIntroductionꆱ. ꋝ Thomas , The Strategy of Conflict, Cambridge:Harvard ꪩUniversityꪪ Press,1960. Anatol Rapoport and Albert M. Chammah, Prisoner's Dilemma:A Study in Conflict and Cooperation, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,1965.ꪥSteven J. Brams, Superpower Games: Applying Game Theory to Superpower Conflict, New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press,1985. James Morrow, Game Theory for Political Scientists, Princeton: Princeton ꪩUniversityꪪ Press,1995. 6
맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 웕삼뗄ꆶ맺볊헾훎뗄쾵춳뫍맽돌ꆷ솽놾쏻훸ꆣꪥ?폫틔잰췢붻헾닟럖컶훐뗄샺쪷맩쓉램늻춬ꎬ늩?싛쫇폃튻ퟩ볙짨퓚싟벭짏붫룷훖톡퓱솪쾵웰살ꎬ뷸뛸췆샭돶헾닟뷡맻ꎬ쫇싟벭췆샭뗄랽램ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ폃늩?싛럖컶췢붻뻶닟뗄풭샭쫇ꎺ볙짨ꆪꆪ췆샭ꎨ퇝틯ꎩꆪꆪ뷡맻ꎨ뻶닟ꎩꆣ퓚컷랽ꎬ늩?샭싛틑놻욵랱뗘펦폃폚췢붻헾닟ꆢ뻼놸뺺주ꆢ뫍욽폫햽헹뗈훘듳맺볊컊쳢뗄퇐뺿ꆣ헽죧믹얷몺ꎨ副扥牴⁏⸠䭥潨慮?ꎩ퓚싛쫶샭탔톡퓱룅쓮쪱쯹쮵ꎺꆰ컒쏇늻탨튪좥퇐뺿쇬떼죋뺿뺹퓚쿫쪲쎴ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뷶뷶춨맽퓚냬릫쫒훐뷸탐ꆮ쮼쿫쪵퇩ꆯꎬ뻍뿉쓜믱뗃뇘튪뗄탅쾢ꆣꆱꋙ늩?싛뻍쫇튻훖뛔쮼캬맽돌뗄쫽샭쪵퇩ꆣ?뒫춳늩?샭싛퓚㈰쫀볍㔰ꆢ㘰쓪듺퓸뺭럧탐튻쪱ꎬ돶쿖뛠훖뛠퇹뗄늩?쒣탍ꎬ떫믹놾탎쪽폐쇣뫍ꎨ穥牯?獵?ꎩ늩?뫍럇쇣뫍ꎨ湯??穥牯?獵?ꎩ늩?솽훖ꎬ닎폫헟믲솽랽믲뛠랽ꆣ쇣뫍늩?폖돆캪ꆰ쮭쫇얳럲ꆱ늩?ꎬ횸닎폫헟뗄헽뢺쫕틦쿠볓캪쇣ꎬ믲튻랽쯹쪧뻍쫇쯻랽쯹뗃ꎬ쫴폚뒿돥춻탍늩?ꎻ럇쇣뫍늩?쫇횸쮫랽믲룷랽뗃쪧늻뗈ꎬ믲헟릲춬쫜틦ꎬ믲헟릲춬쫜쯰ꎬ퓚헢훖늩?훐뫏ퟷ돉캪뿉쓜ꆣ쇣뫍늩?횻쓜폃폚ퟮ볲떥뗄돥춻ힴ첬ꎬ쟩뿶짔캢뢴퓓튻뗣뻍쪧좥펦폃볛횵ꆣ퓚럇쇣뫍늩?ꎨ샽죧쟴춽삧뺳ꎩ훐ꎬ평폚닎폫헟퓋폃샭탔췆샭랽램뿉쓜톡퓱쿠뮥놳엑뛸럅웺릲춬쫜틦뗄뷡맻ꎬ틲듋듦퓚ퟅ쫂쪵짏뗄럇샭탔톡퓱ꆣ듓㘰쓪듺뫳웚뾪쪼ꎬ헾훎톧뿆뗄늩?싛톧헟쏇죏쪶떽ꎬ컊쳢돶퓚늩?닎폫랽횻폐튻듎톡퓱믺믡ꎬ컞램폫뛔쫖뗄랴펦뷸탐뮥뚯ꎬ퓚퓋폃쇋쫕틦뻘헳ꎨ灡祯晦慴物?ꎩ횮뫳ꎬ쟩뿶룼쫇죧듋ꆣ?ㄹ㜱쓪ꎬ믴뮪뗂ꎨ乩来氠䡯睡牤ꎩ랢뇭ꆶ샭탔뗄싛ꆷꎬꋚ좡뗃쇋훘뢴늩?샭싛뗄춻웆ꆣ쯦뫳ꎬ헢튻샭싛폖뗃떽쇋탭뛠웤쯻톧헟뗄랢햹뫍룄퓬ꆣꋛ퓚훘뢴늩?훐ꎬ늩?헟ퟮ돵톡퓱뗄쫇튻훖탐캪ힼ퓲ꎬ퓊탭쯦뫳룹뻝쟩뿶뫍쫕틦ퟶ돶뗷헻ꆣ웤믹놾풭퓲틑늻퓙쫇뒫춳늩?싛훐벺랽뗄샻틦ퟮ듳뮯ꎬ뛸쫇붫ퟅ퇛뗣럅퓚뷡맻뗄탔훊ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뷡맻뗄컈뚨탔짏ꆣ퇐뺿헟뾼싇뗄늻쫇튻랽뛔ퟔ벺ퟮ듳샻틦뗄ힷ쟳ꎬ뛸쫇솽랽믲뛠랽톰헒복짙늻좷뚨탔뫍뷢뻶돥춻뗄뻹뫢뗣ꎨ敱畩汩扲極?ꎩꆣ퓚튻듎쟴춽삧뺳늩?훐ꎬ쮫랽뚼놳엑쫇쓉쪲뻹뫢뗣ꎨ乡獨⁅煵楬楢物畭?偯楮?ꎩꎬ벴햼폅쫆뗄햽싔ꎻ떫퓚훘뢴뗄늩?훐ꎬ놳엑탐캪뗄뛌웚쫕틦믡놻뷴쯦웤뫳뗄풶웚쿠뮥돍랣뗄듺볛쯹뎬맽ꆣ믴뮪뗂퓋폃쿖쪵쫀뷧훐뗄죏횪쿖쿳ꎨ톧쾰ꎩꎬ붫쟴춽삧뺳룄퓬돉튻훖뮥뚯폎쾷ꎬ퓋폃헢훖햽싔뫳ꎬퟮ훕춨맽뫏ퟷ뛸릲춬믱틦튲쫴쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ닉폃헢훖햽싔뗄늩?헟퓚튻뾪쪼뻍닉좡뫏ퟷ햽싔ꎬ좻뫳늻맜웤뛔쫖죧뫎펦뛔ꎬ뚼볡돖뛔놳엑탐캪뷸탐놨뢴ꎬ뛔뫏ퟷ탐캪룸폫믘놨ꆣ떱솽룶늩?헟뚼쪹폃ꆰ튻놨뮹튻놨ꆱꎨ瑩??景??瑡?ꎩ햽싔쪱ꎬ맺볊뫏ퟷ뻍쓜쪵쿖ꆣ?튻냣살쮵ꎬ뻶닟헟퓚뻶닟쪱죝틗뫶쫓뛔쫖뗄톡퓱폫욫뫃ꎻ훘뢴늩?평폚폐죏횪톧뗄냯훺ꎬ믡잿웈뻶닟헟뾼싇뛔랽뗄맛뗣ꎬ헢뛔춨맽쳖볛뮹볛펮뗃뷏뫃뫍뷏컈뚨뗄뷡맻훁맘훘튪ꆣ훘뢴늩?쯹붨퓬뗄뻶닟놳뺰ꎬ뿉틔쪹뻶닟헟뗄쮼캬잰뫳튻훂뫍뇈뷏좫쏦ꆣꋜ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ컒쏇튲펦룃뾴떽ꎬ쿖쪵쫀뷧늢늻뻟폐췪좫뗄뿉훘뢴탔ꎬ틲듋벴쪹쫇뿉훘뢴뗄늩?튲늻쓜룅삨쯹폐맺볊맘쾵쿖쿳ꆣ뛔폚뺭볃쎳틗ꆢ뮷뺳ꆢ뿆벼뗈붻췹살쮵ꎬ맺볒뗄랴펦쓜솦뷏캪톸쯙뫍폐킧ꎬ뛸뛔폚커ힰ돥춻ꆢ뻼놸뿘훆뛸퇔ꎬ튪쎴쫇늻뿉훘뢴뗄ꎬ튪쎴맺볒뗄랴펦뇈뷏동뮺ꆣ?틔쿖쪵훷틥캪쮼쿫믹뒡뗄샭탔톡퓱쒣쪽벰웤뛔늩?싛뗄펦폃ꎬ놻맺볊맘쾵톧뷧쫓캪퇐뺿췢붻뻶닟뗄훷쇷샭싛ꎬ펰쿬튲ퟮ듳ꆣ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ쇭튻킩톧헟죏캪ꎬ헾훎늢늻뷶뷶틢캶ퟅ샭싛볆쯣ꎬ죋쏇뗄샭탔쮼캬ퟜ쫇놻탭뛠틲쯘쿞훆ퟅꆣ샽죧ꎬ좱랦탅쾢뻍믡퇏훘ퟨ낭죋쏇뗄닟싔쮼뾼ꎬ듋췢뮹듦퓚풴폐쿞ꆢ붻쇷늻뎩ꆢ좱랦뢴퓓볆쯣쓜솦뗈컊쳢ꆣꋝ퓚쪵볹훐ꎬ샭탔톡퓱쒣 ꋙ ꏛ쏀ꏝ싞늮쳘ꆤ믹얷몺훸ꎬ쯕뎤뫍뗈틫ꎺꆶ냔좨횮뫳ꆷꎬ짏몣ꎺ짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧ꎬ2001쓪5퓂ꎬ뗚80튳ꆣ ꋚ Nigel Howard, Paradoxes of Rationality:The Theory of Metagames and Political Behavior, ambridge,Mass.:MIT Press,1971. ꋛ Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Book,1984;Steven , Super Beings, New York:Springer-verlag,1983. ꋜ Charles F. Hermann,Charles W. Kegley and James N. Rosenau, eds., New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, Boston: Allen & Unwin,1987,. ꋝ Steven , Rational Politics, Washington .: CQ Press, 1985, . 7
맺볊맘쾵샭싛 쫀뷧뺭볃폫헾훎2003쓪뗚11웚 쪽컞램짮죫웊컶퓚맺볊맘쾵훐듦퓚뗄탭뛠ꆰ럇샭탔ꆱ뻶닟ꎬ쪹죋짮룐샭탔뗄뻖쿞ꆣ폚쫇ꎬ늻짙톧헟듓맺쓚헾훎뗄ퟩ횯맜샭닣듎뫍뻶닟헟룶죋뗄탄샭죏횪닣듎짏뷸탐룼맣랺퇐뺿뫍첽쯷ꎬ듓뛸뷸튻늽췆뚯쇋췢붻뻶닟톧뗄랢햹ꆣ??ꏛ쫕룥죕웚ꎺ㈰〳?〱?㈰ꏝ?ꏛ탞믘죕웚ꎺ㈰〳?〹?㈲ꏝ?ꏛ퓰죎뇠벭ꎺ짛럥ꏝ? 8
