ֻ40जֻ2௹ᆄࡾն࿐࿐Б(ದ໓ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ),୍3ᄅJournalofZhejiangUniversity(HumanitiesandSocialSciences): 奚锡灿(ᆄࡾն࿐ႏࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏ,ᆄࡾݳᇜ310027)[ᅋ ေ]ࡗࣁವᇏ֥ሧᆀᄝࡓఒြࡅൈթᄝ/૧ٮձӚ0໙ี:ຓ҆ሧᆀඔਈᄀ؟,ؓఒြࡅࣜႏࠃ֥ࡓིੱᄀ֮b۳קఃຓളၹ҂э,ఒြሱႵሧࣁᄀ؟,ఒြ֥ඌིੱᄀۚ,ႪᇉཛଢཌྷؓႿਜᇉཛଢ֥Ӯۿۀੱᄀն,ֹࡗሧЧᄀྦި,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ෮၇թ֥ഠ߶༝a໓߄აܿٓ֩ߌၹᄀႪᄀ,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆࣼᄀն;ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ڄག০ੱඣᄀۚ,ఒြཛଢᄀႵ০Ⴟఒြࡅକ౼০,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆࣼᄀཬb[ܱՍ]ࣁವఔჿ;ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟ;/૧ٮձӚ0໙ีFinancialContractandtheLocalityofInformalFinancialMarketLuoDeming XiXican(CenterforResearchofPrivateEconomy,ZhejiangUniversity,Hangzhou310027,China)Abstract:,projectpstechnologicalefficiency,probabilityofsuccessofagoodproject,outsideinvestorpswealth,andlocalfactorslikesocialconventions,-freeinterestrate,:financialcontract;thelocalityofinformalfinancialmarket;thefree-riderproblem一a引 言ڿ۪ष٢୍ট,ᇏݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚ౼֤ਔऍնӮࣼ,࿐ᆀૌಏၛႨ၂Ϯંࣉྛࢳ,ᆃࣼྙӮਔ෮໌֥ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉᆭb২ೂ,Bekaert֩ದՖФܼٗႋႨ֥ྍܞׅԮ؟ݓࣜဒଆ[൬۠ರ௹]2009-08-05 [Ч़ຩᆶ#ᄝཌᄖᆽ]
ֻ2௹અ֣ૼ ᒳ༌Қ:ࣁವఔჿაࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟ153(ೂBarroބLeeᄝ1994୍ิԛ֥ٚم[1])֥࢘؇,ॉҳਔᇏݓ୍࣍ট֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉࣜဒ,ؿགྷՖॴݓ࢘؇ु۲ݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ѓሙथקၹ,ᇏݓ൞၂۱ᇗܛ৫֥అၳׄ[1]b္ࣼ൞ඪ,ѓሙଆᇏ֥ྸ؟эਈѩ҂ିႵིࢳᇏݓ୍ট֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉbѩᄝ౼֤ۚࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ൈ,ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ѯ(ੱthegrowthvolatility)٤ӈཬ,ૼཁ҂ႿऎႵোරഠ߶aᆟᇍᇅ؇აࣜ࠶ࣁವؿᅚඣ֥ݓࡅ֥౦ྙbᄝ॥ᇅਔᆟᇍڄགaᇅ؇эਈaഠ߶ЌᅰaݓႵᇅ֩эਈު,ॴݓི݂߭ݔෙಖႵ෮ڿࣉ,ಯᇗ֮ܙਔᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱbAllen֩ದοᅶمੰaࣁವაࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ࣜဒ࣮Ԯࣉྛਔ၂༢ਙ࣮,ᆷԛᇏݓ֥ᆞܿࣁವุᇅᇶေᆦӻིੱ֮༯֥ݓႵఒြ,ط҂ᆦӻಒЌᇏݓࣜ࠶ӻ࿃ॹؿᅚ֥ႏఒြ;ᇏݓ֥مੰᇅ؇္ીႵޓݺֹЌࡗሧᆀ֥০ၭ[3-4]b෮ၛ,ૌಪູ,ᆦӻᇏݓࣜ࠶ۚᄹӉ֥ࣁವᇅ؇҂൞ݓႵ֥ᆞܿࣁವ,ط൞Ⴎֹ֒Ϥྠሱؿิ܂ࣁವڛༀ֥ࡗࣁವ҆¹[3]bቔູمੰู֥ս,ࡗ֥ലუࠏᇅބܱ༢֩ഠ߶༝აܿ,ٓॖၛႵֹིЌࡗࣁವ֥҆ሧᆀbၹՎ,ႏࣜ࠶ॖၛ֤֞ؿᅚ,ѩ՜ࣉᇏݓࣜ࠶֥٦ؿᅚºbЧ໓൫ᄝHomstrÊmބTirole֥ଆॿࡏ༯[5],ܒᄯ၂۱ࡥֆ֥҂ປಆࣁವఔჿଆ,ॉҳ႕ཙࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟၹbࡗࣁವअ҆ྟ֥ᇶေหᆘ൞,ᄝሧᆀࡓఒြࡅ֥ݖӱᇏթᄝ/૧ٮձӚ0གྷའ:ຓ҆ሧᆀඔਈᄀ؟,ؓఒြࡅࣜႏࠃ֥ࡓིੱࣼᄀ֮bЧ໓൫ᆣૼ,۳קఃຓളၹ҂э,ఒြሱႵሧࣁᄀ؟,ఒြ֥ඌིੱᄀ,ۚႪᇉཛଢཌྷؓႿਜᇉཛଢ֥Ӯۿۀੱᄀն,ֹࡗሧЧᄀྦި,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ෮၇թ֥ഠ߶༝a໓߄აܿٓ֩ߌၹᄀႪᄀ,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆࣼᄀն;ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ڄག০ੱඣᄀۚ,ఒြཛଢᄀႵ০Ⴟఒြࡅକ౼০,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆࣼᄀཬbᆃဢ,ھଆ҆ٳֹࢳਔAllen֩ದ֥ࣜဒ࣮ࢲݔ[3]:ᄝᇏݓ,ෙಖمੰીႵޓݺֹЌࡗሧᆀ֥০ၭ,ࡗሱؿྙӮ֥ഠ߶༝aഅြ໓߄აܿٓିᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈЌሧᆀ֥০ၭ,՜ࣉࡗࣁವ൧ӆᄝअֹ҆ؿᅚ,ѩႵ৯ֹᆦӻֹ֥֒ႏࣜ࠶ؿᅚbၛ༯ࠫ۱࣮ਵთ֥໓ངაЧ࣮ᆰࢤཌྷܱbЧ໓൮༵აؿᅚᇏݓࡅఒြሧЧࢲܒ֥໓ངཌྷܱbݓଽຓ࣮ؿᅚᇏݓࡅఒြವሧაࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥նਈࣜဒᆣऌіૼ:ᄝཌྷ֥अთࣜ࠶(sub-economy)ଽ,ࡗࣁವ০ੱཁᇷۚႿᆞܿࣁವ০,ੱཌྷරࡗվॻᆭࡗ֥০ੱҵљޓն;ࡗվॻິჿۀੱཬ,ິჿሧЧᅝ٤ᆞܿࣁವᇏࢺੀሧЧ֥%)%;୪ބᇏཬఒြվॻᇶေႨႿളӁބસၞವሧbᆃུࣜဒ࣮ЇওטҰaσ২a࠹ਈ࣮[6-12],Ч໓ູᆃུࣜဒ࣮ิ܂ંᆦӻbఃՑ൞୍࣍টྖఏ֥مੰაࣁವ໓ངbLaPorta֩ದؿགྷ,ࣁವࢲܒࠣఃིੱაمੰఏჷႵܱ[13-14]bDjankov֩ದಪູ,๙ݖمੰุᇅაྐ༏ٳཚᇅ؇ؓᅏಃದЌӱ؇ᄀۚ,ႵྐվᅝGDPбᇗࣼᄀ,ۚطުᆀᄝࣜ࠶ᄀ҂ؿղֹ֥ᄀᇗေ[15]bDjankov֩ದࣉ၂҄ؿགྷ,ᅏༀఔჿᄝൗࢸ۲ݓൌീི֥ੱ٤ӈ֮[16]bࣜ࠶ᄀ҂ؿղ,ᅏༀఔჿൌീིੱᄀ֮bᅏༀఔჿ֥ൌീ္აمੰఏჷႵ,ܱѩथקਔࣜ࠶ིࠛbൈ,ི֮ੱ္აᅏༀൌീ֥ࢲܒหᆘႵܱbൌീིੱ¹ࡗࣁವٗᆷ۱ุaࡅ๖aఒြᆭࡗಡषܲٚᆞൔ֥ࣁವุ༢طᆰࢤࣉྛࣁವࢌၞࠃ֥ྛູbఃऎุ֥іགྷྙൔႵࡗࢹվaࡗᇹ߶aԥྐྵᇹഠaֹ༯ఫሌaሿਧ܄ඳaֹ༯ሧ܄ඳ֩bᆃུࡗࣁವࢹվྛູສສ൞٤م֥,ၹՎ๙ӈ္Фӫ/ֹູ༯ࣁವ0bºലუބܱ༢ࠏᇅЇওၛ༯ࠫᇕ:၂൞ഠ߶ᇅჿაӲـࠏᇅ,ቔູ၂ᇕຓള֥ࠏᇅ,ીႵ൯ӵ୶֥ა߶ᆀࠣఃඋࡼФ֒భࠣໃট֥ޅᇹ߶ஆԇႿຓ,္ࡼ൳֞၂༢ਙഠ߶ᇅҊ,ЇওМഈߊ֥ലუaാಀ۽ቔaҍӁФߊ֩bؽ൞ҕაࡗࣁವڛༀ֥۱ุᆭࡗ֥ࡓ,ሧࣁ֥վٚьႿ০Ⴈॖၛࠆ֤֥႗ྐ༏ބೈྐ༏ࡓࢹ֥ٚఒြࣜႏࠃb൞Ⴕܱࡗࣁವ֥ᇅ؇νஆႵ০Ⴟࢆ֮ࢹվڄགb২ೂ,ᄝᇹ߶֥ᄎቔᇏ,߶൮ቔ/ູቋުվॻದ0֥ᇅ؇νஆ,Ⴕ০Ⴟࢆ֮ః֤ݖ߶֥߶ჴ֥ິჿڄག,߶൮္ьႿ০Ⴈఃህࡅദٺაഠ߶ֹ໊ࣉྛࡓb
154ᆄࡾն࿐࿐Б(ದ໓ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ)ֻ40जᄀ֮,Ⴕᅏༀ൧ӆᄀ҂ؿղbShleiferބWolfenzonaPaganoބVolpinᆣૼਔሧᆀЌඣथקವሧ০,ੱՖط႕ཙࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ[17-18]bაᆃུ࣮҂,Ч໓ՖࡗሱؿྙӮ֥ഠ߶༝aഅြ໓߄აܿٓᆃ၂࢘؇ॉҳሧᆀЌაࡗࣁವ൧ӆؿᅚ໙ีbਸ਼ຓ၂۱ਵთ൞ࣁವᇏࢺંbЧ໓֥ࠎЧܴׄაHomstrÊmބTiroleཌྷ[5]bᆃॖၛሔි֞GrossmanބHartaHartބMoore֩ದܱႿӁಃބ॥ᇅಃದ൬ၭ֥҂ປಆఔჿં[19-20],ၛࠣࠎႿ҂ປಆఔჿ֥ᅏༀބࣁವᇏࢺં[21-23]bЧ໓෮ॉҳ֥ሧᆀᄝࡓఒြࡅൈؿള֥/૧ٮձӚ0໙ี,აBoltonބScharfstein֥࣮[24]Ⴕ৳༢bაᆃུଆ҂,Ч໓఼טࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟb二a金融契约的基本模型ࡌഡႵ၂۱ఒြࡅބᇙ؟ሧᆀ,ૌ൞ڄགᇏྟ֥bఒြࡅႵ၂۱ሧཛଢ,ѩႵԚҍڶAbഡఒြ֥ሧܿଆູKbႵ౿֥౦ྙ൞K>AbՎൈ,ఒြࡅ൳֞ࣁವჿඏ,ླေՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆࠆ֤ቀܔ֥ሧࣁK-AሧႿھཛଢbࡌഡ၂۱৵࿃ሧ֥ଆ,ՎൈKI[0,])bᄝሧު,ೂݔିܔӮۿ,ପહھཛଢॖၛӁളܿଆБԏ҂э֥གྷࣁੀRK,აھཛଢ֥ሧܿଆKӮᆞб;ೂݔཛଢാϧ,ᄵ҂ିӁളޅགྷࣁੀbࠎႿᆃဢ၂۱Hotellingཌྟഠ:ఒြ໊Ⴟھഠ֥ᇏྏ໊ᇂ0ׄb໊ႿھఒြቐႷ[-L,L]֥თഈ,नᄋֹٳ҃ሢҍڶູW֥۱ุbѩֆ໊Ӊ؇ഈ֥۱ุඔਈҩ؇ູ1/2,Ֆطთ[-L,L]ഈ֥۱ุҩ؇ູL,ॖ܂ھఒြࡅႨႿཛଢሧ֥ሹ֥ຓ҆ሧࣁູWLbᆃဢ,ҕඔL؇ਈਔთܿଆ,ՖطWL؇ਈਔھთ֥ࡗሧЧሹܿଆb۱ุx൞ᆷएᆃ۱ఒြࡅ໊ᇂູx֥۱ุbᆃུሧࣁ֥ࠏ߶ӮЧ֩Ⴟ1+¹ibᆴ֤ᇿၩ֥൞,ૌႨx؇ਈაఒြࡅ֥ܱ༢,एᄀն,ܱ༢ᄀ҂ૡ్bׅ֥ࡗࣁವ൧ӆສສअཋႿଖ၂अ҆თ,ھთଽҕაሧࣁࣩᆚ֥ࢹॻದ֥ඔਈ္൞Ⴕཋ֥bЧ໓ູਔࡥֆఏ,ࡌഡᆺႵ၂۱ఒြࡅbൖჹބઅ֣ૼᄻॉҳݖႵཋ۱ሧᆀࣩᆚሧࣁ֥໙ี[25]bაH[5]omstrÊmބTirole֥ഡᇂཌྷ,ھఒြࡅॖၛൌീਆোཛଢ:ႪᇉཛଢࠇਜᇉཛଢbႪᇉཛଢӮۿ֥ۀੱູPH,ਜᇉཛଢӮۿ֥ۀੱູPL,ఃᇏ,PL<PHbѩ,ఒြࡅሧႪᇉཛଢીႵ۱ದ০,ሧਜᇉཛଢॖၛࠆ֤০bຓ҆ሧᆀ҂ି႕ཙཛଢӮۿ֥ۀੱbሧᆀࡓӱ؇႕ཙఒြࡅࣜႏਜᇉཛଢࠆ֤֥০bሧᆀࡓӱ؇ᄀ,ۚ০ࣼᄀഒ;ّᆭၧಖbЧ໓หљܱᇿሧᆀࡓఒြࡅݖӱᇏթᄝ/֥૧ٮձӚ0໙ีb۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ሧᆀᄀ؟,ؓఒြࡅ֥ࡓࣼᄀཬ;္ॖࢳູሧᆀඔਈᄀ؟,აఒြࡅ֥नएࣼᄀն,ࡓིੱࣼᄀ֮[24-25]b২ೂ,ൖჹaઅ֣ૼބဗХܱႿᇹ߶֥֚߶ࠏᇅ֥ࣜဒ࣮іૼ,ః่ࡱ҂э,ა߶ದჴᄀ؟,ᇹ߶֚߶֥ۀੱࣼᄀն[26]bЧ໓҂ᆰࢤଆࡗሧᆀؓఒြࡅ֥ࡓ,ೂBeckerᆰࢤଆਔؿགྷٕቌྛູ֥ۀੱაؿགྷٕቌྛູӮЧ֥ܱ༢[27],ط൞ᆰࢤࡌഡሧᆀؓఒြࡅཛଢሧ֥ࡓඣ൞ሧᆀඔਈ֥ࡨݦඔ,ၧࠧ:ma=m(x)=,(1)xఃᇏaіᆘਔᆃ۱ഠ֥ഠ߶ሧЧඣ,Їওھთ֥ഠ߶༝a໓߄აܿٓ֩ᄝࡗࠒྙӮ֥അြߌ,ّ႘ਔሧᆀࡓఒြི֥ੱb¹ሧᆀ֥ࠏ߶ӮЧ൞ሧႿڄགሧӁ֥൬ၭ,২ೂࡼሧࣁթႿၿྛࠆ֤֥০༏b
ֻ2௹અ֣ૼ ᒳ༌Қ:ࣁವఔჿაࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟ155ॖՖၛ༯ࠫ۱࢘؇ࢳൔ(1)֥ࣜဒაᇅ؇Мࣟb൮༵൞ഠ֥ഠ߶ܱ༢აᇅჿࠏᇅbᄝ୪ըֹ,ದ१ੀྟࢠཬ,ದૌສສݺࠫսंᇾᄝ၂۱ֹٚ,Ќӻሢਅݺ֥ܱ༢b္ࣼ൞ඪ,ᄝ၂۱ֹ,ದૌᆭࡗ֥ཌྷਔࢳӱ؇ࢠ,ۚᆃьႿሧᆀࡓఒြࡅbೂݔႵఒြҦྟֹ࿊ᄴڄགࢠնط൬ၭࢠཬ֥ཛଢ,Ֆط֝ᇁمӊߎᅏༀ,ପહ,ᄝཌྷ໓߄აഠ߶ܿٓଽ֥ሧᆀࡼؓఒြൌീ൙ުӲـbᆃུӲـծീЇওࡼఒြࡅஆԢᄝࡅቂࠇഠᆭຓbӧᆽᆷԛ,ᄝഅြ໓߄ؿղֹ֥,ದૌؓഅြࡎᆴބఔჿᆳྛ֥ಪ؇۷ۚ,ᆃູࣼࡗࣁವ൧ӆؿᅚิ܂ਔ၂۱۷ݺ֥ഠ߶ᇅ؇ߌ[28]bഠӉ௹ࠒ֥അြ໓߄აᇅ؇ܿٓߌಌാ֥߅,ದૌࡼാޓ؟ࠏ߶,ఒြࢌၞ֥ӮЧ္ࡼննᄹࡆbڿ۪ष٢,ުԮ֥അြ໓߄ބܿٓᇯࡶ߫گ,২ೂྍᇏݓӮ৫ᆭభࣁವြбࢠؿղ֥ᆄࡾ֩സ,ႮႿթᄝᆦӻࡗࣁವؿᅚ֥ഠ߶ᇅ؇ߌ,ࡗࣁವෛሢࣜ࠶ؿᅚطᇯ҄߫گބؿᅚ,ཌྷؓႿഅြ໓߄҂ؿղֹ֥,ି۷Ⴕֹིᇂሧჷ,Ֆط՜ࣉࣜ࠶ؿᅚbఃՑ൞ཌྷܱ֥ࡗࣁವᇅ؇νஆbॖၛഡམᆃဢ၂ᇕࣁವᇅ؇νஆ:ၛఒြࡅ֥ཛଢູᇏྏ[29],ຓ҆ሧᆀቆӮ၂۱ೂBoydބPrescott෮૭ඍ֥ࣁವᇏࢺbࣁವᇏࢺ֥ࡓིੱაഠᇏ֥ഠ߶ሧЧႵ,္ܱაҕაᇏࢺ֥ሧᆀඔਈႵܱbҕა֥ሧᆀᄀ؟,/૧ٮձӚ0໙ีᄀᇗbൖჹaઅ֣ૼބဗХؓᇹ߶ິჿࠏᇅ֥࣮іૼ,ᄝᇹ߶֥ᇅ؇νஆᇏ,ေ߶൮Ⴕᄳูິჿ߶ჴ࢚ବ߶ࣁ;ط֚߶ު,ა߶ದჴᆭࡗթᄝᇗྍซ֥ࠏᇅ,֤֚߶భ၂ᆰીႵ֤߶֥߶ჴࠆ֤၂ק֥Ҁӊ;֚߶߶ჴࡼФഠ֥ఃӮჴஆԇbᆃུࠏᇅ࠻ࢆ֮ਔᇹ߶֚߶֥ۀੱ,္ࢆ֮ਔ߶ჴૌၹູ֚߶طᄥ൳֥ാ[26]bັܴࣁವᇅ؇ೂุࢹॻ֥ᄎቔ္Ⴕཌྷර֥หᆘbሧᆀᆭࡗ֥ཌྷࡓॖၛЌᆣุࢹॻᇅ؇֥ॖӻ࿃ྟbοᅶᆃᇕࠏᇅ,ሧᆀᆭࡗಯթᄝ/૧ٮձӚ0໙:ีሧᆀᄀ؟,ૌᆭࡗཌྷࡓ఼֥؇ᄀbఒြࡅࠆ֤֥॥ᇅಃ০൞ࡓඣ֥ࡨݦඔ[23-24]bູ҂ാ၂Ϯྟ,ࡌഡఒြࡅ๙ݖ࿊ᄴਜᇉཛଢॖࠆ֤֥॥ᇅಃ০ડቀၛ༯่ࡱ:Bb=mKbx=K=DxK,(2)aఃᇏҕඔbّ႘ਔหקཛଢᇏఒြࡅକ౼০֥ၞӱ؇b҂֥ཛଢ,ఒြࡅࠆ౼০֥ၞӱ؇҂bཛଢหᆘಒൌაࡗࣁವ൧ӆؿᅚႵܱ৳bᆃॖିაཛଢ֥ඌหᆘބܿଆႵܱ,္ॖିაھཛଢ֥ӁြࢲܒႵܱb২ೂ,ࡅ๖൭۽ቔ٘ൔ֥ఒြ,ሧഒ,ሧӁഒ,ޓაࡅ๖ҍӁཌྷљ,ၹطఒြࡅޓಸၞሇ၍ఒြҍӁbնఒြᄵႚႵӌٜaࠏఖഡС֩ܥקሧӁ,ཌྷؓطࣼ҂ಸၞࡼఒြሧӁሇ၍¹b࠺D=b/abൔ(2)іૼ,ఒြࡅ๙ݖ࿊ᄴਜᇉཛଢॖࠆ֤֥॥ᇅಃ০აఒြሧܿଆӮᆞб,აຓ҆ሧᆀؓఒြࡅൌീཛଢ֥ࡓ఼؇Ӯّбbࣁವఔჿ֥ൈࡗඨೂ༯:Ԛ௹,ఒြࡅႚႵ၂۱ऎႵഈඍหᆘ֥ሧཛଢ,ѩཟຓ҆ሧᆀವሧ,దרࣁವఔჿ,ಒקವሧඔਈD=xW,ఃᇏx[L,ൈಒקཛଢሧܿଆູK=A+xWbࠆ֤ವሧ,ުఒြࡅथקሧޅᇕཛଢ,ѩॖିӁളս໙ีbଌ௹,ൌགྷཛଢ൬ၭbཛଢӮۿ,ᄵཟሧᆀᆦڱRI,ఒြࡅࠆ֤ӊڱު֥ഺჅ൬ၭRE,ၧࠧRI+RE=RK;ཛଢാϧ,ᄵఒြࡅބሧᆀ֥൬ၭࢥູਬ,ၧࠧఒြࡅӵքႵཋᄳbᆃ҂ॉ੮ཛଢാϧ෮ջট֥ഠ߶ӲـაᇅҊbູਔᄝᆃ۱ଆॿࡏ༯ࢳս໙,ี҂ാ၂Ϯ,ྟࡌഡఒြࡅ࿊ᄴႪᇉཛଢ,ᄵཛଢ֥࣪གྷ¹২ೂ,PistorބXuᄝૌ֥࣮ᇏࡌഡ,ఒြܿଆᄀն,ఒြࡅࣼᄀ҂ಸၞሇ၍ఒြሧӁა൬ၭ,Ֆط॥ᇅಃದ൬ၭᄝཌྷؓၩၬഈ(ၧࠧሇ၍֥б২)ࢠ֮bҕ&,dLawEnforcementunderIncompleteLaw:TheoryandEvidencefromFinancialMarketRegulation,d2010-01-15,
156ᆄࡾն࿐࿐Б(ದ໓ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ)ֻ40जᆴ൞ᆞ֥:PHR>1+i;(3)ڎᄵ,ཛଢ֥࣪གྷᆴ൞ڵ:֥1+i>PLR+Dxb(4)ၹط,Ԣ٤ࣁವఔჿିࢳथս໙,ีఒြࡅ࿊ᄴႪᇉཛଢ,ڎᄵ,ఒြࡅ҂ॖିՖຓ҆ሧᆀପࠆ֤ሧࣁbॉ੮֞x<L,֒ഠ֥ሧࣁࢹ۳ఒြࡅൈ,ఒြࡅՖཛଢᇏॖၛࠆ֤֥০֩Ⴟ:B=DL(A+WL)b(5)ࡌഡഠቀܔն,ၧࠧLቀܔն,नޙ֥ሧऎႵଽׄࢳbᆃေࡌഡ:PPHDLHR[(1+i)+$Pb(6)္ࣼ൞ඪ,ഠቀܔն,֒ഠᇏ֥ሧᆀሧႿఒြࡅ֥ཛଢൈ,ֆ໊ሧ֥ყ௹࣪൬ၭPHR-(1+i),ࡼཬႿֆ໊ሧ֥սӮЧPHDL/$Pbࡌഡഠ֥ሧЧ൧ӆ൞ປಆࣩᆚ֥,ѩڄག০ੱູi,ᄵऎႵ၂ק؎৯ਈ֥ሧᆀ֥౦ྙაՎ٤ӈཌྷර,ఒြࡅᆭࡗᆚؠሧࣁ֥ࣩᆚ౦ྙ္აՎ٤ӈཌྷර[25]b三a贷款市场均衡ሧႪᇉཛଢႵࢠ֥ۚӮۿੱ,ሧਜᇉཛଢఒြࡅॖၛࠆ֤۱ದ০bପહ,ఒြࡅᄝહ౦ঃ༯࿊ᄴႪᇉཛଢ?ሧႪᇉཛଢ֥০൞PHRE,طሧਜᇉཛଢ֥০൞PLRE+DxK,ఃᇏK=A+xWbၹՎ,ఒြࡅ࿊ᄴႪᇉཛଢ֥ࠗৣཌྷಸ่ࡱ൞:PHRE\PLRE+DxKb(7)$P=PH-PL,ഈඍ҂֩ൔॖၛіൕູ:$PRE\DxKb(8)ሧᆀjI[-x,x]֥ҕაჿඏ:ູPH[RK-RE]\xW(1+i)b(9)ᄝປಆࣩᆚ֥ࡗࣁವ൧ӆᇏ,ຓ҆ሧᆀ҂ିՖࣁವఔჿᇏࠆ֤ޅحຓ֥০¹bၹՎ,ఒြࡅི֥࣪Ⴈࣼ൞ཛଢሧӁള֥ഠ߶ഺჅ,ၧࠧ:UE=[PHR-(1+i)]Kb(10)ၹՎ,ఒြ֥ሧܿଆഈཋ,ၧࠧఒြࡅ֥ᅏༀܿଆ,౼थႿࠗৣཌྷಸჿඏ(8)აҕაჿඏ(9)bxіൕఒြࡅॖၛࠆ֤ವሧ֥ሧᆀඔਈഈཋbఒြཛଢሧቋႪܿଆડቀ:K[kA,(11)ఃᇏk൞ሧӰඔ,ડቀၛ༯่ࡱ,༯်b¹ਆ۱ఒြູᆚؠഠ֥ࡗሧЧطᅚषࣩᆚ,Ֆطູຓ҆ሧᆀิ܂ਔحຓ֥০;Վຓ,ຓ҆ሧᆀ֥ྐ༏ӮЧ္Ⴕ၂ק႕ཙ:აఒြࡅܱ༢ૡ్֥ሧᆀࢫჿਔྐ༏ӮЧ,Ֆطࠆ֤۷؟֥حຓ০bҕൖჹaઅ֣ૼ5ູહࡗࣁವ൧ӆᄝᇏݓᇗေ?6,ᄛ5ଲٚࣜ࠶62009୍ֻ5௹,ֻ38-46်b
ֻ2௹અ֣ૼ ᒳ༌Қ:ࣁವఔჿაࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟ1571+ik=(1+i)-PH(R-D>1,(12)x/$P)ఃᇏ,x൞ၛ༯ؽՑٚӱ֥ࢳ:D$Px(A+xW)=P[PHR(A+xW)-xW(1+i)]b(13)HႮൔ(6)ॖᆩ,ൔ(12)ᇏ֥ФԢඔնႿਬ,ၧࠧֆ໊ሧ֥ყ௹࣪൬ၭPHR-(1+i),ࡼཬႿֆ໊ሧ֥սӮЧPHB/$PbѩႮൔ(3)ބ(4)ॖᆩ,$PR>DxbၹՎ,ФԢඔཬႿ1+ibᆃіૼ,ᄝಒЌఒြࡅ࿊ᄴႪᇉཛଢ่֥ࡱ༯,ఒြࡅॖၛ০Ⴈთ֥ࡗࣁವ൧ӆࠆ֤၂קح؇֥ሧࣁ,֥ཛଢሧح؇ӑݖ֥ԚҍڶA,ՖطӁളሧӰඔིႋbᆃ൞ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ᇗေۿିb҂ؿགྷ,ൔ(13)ᆺႵ၂۱ᆞࢳ,ᆃࣼ൞ૌ෮ླ֤֥ఒြࡅॖࠆ֤ವሧ֥ቋնሧᆀܿଆb࠺w=W/A,іൕֆ໊Ӊ؇ഠഈ֥ሧᆀҍڶაఒြࡅҍڶ֥б২bପહ,($P/PH)w[PHR-(1+i)]-D+{($P/PH)w[PHR-(1+i)]-D2}+4$PRDwx=2Dwb(14)ൔ(3)ބൔ(10)іૼ,ఒြࡅ֥ቋႪሧҦ൞ሧkAb四a初始财富a项目特征与局域金融市场规模༯໓ॉҳఒြࡅԚҍڶAaཛଢหᆘ(R,PH,$P)ބაཛଢหᆘႵܱ֥ఒြࡅକ౼০֥ၞӱ؇b֩ၹ,ؓཛଢವሧ֥ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆࠧD=xW֥႕ཙbླေᆷԛ֥൞,ᆃུၹؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙ,აૌؓҕაࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ሧᆀඔਈ֥႕ཙཌྷbᄝ༯໓֥ษંᇏ,ؓሧᆀඔਈ֥႕ཙ֩Ⴟؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆD֥႕ཙb൮༵,ॉҳఒြࡅ֥ሱႵሧࣁAؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙbؓൔ(13)ܱႿA֥ொ֝ඔ,ᆜުॖ:֤Dxw+$PR9x$P1+iW=xx9APH1+xWA2b(15)ၹՎ,9x>0b(16)9Aൔ(15)ބ(16)іૼ,۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ఒြࡅႚႵ֥Ԛҍڶᄀ؟,ࣼᄀିՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆᅳ֞ሧᆀཟิ܂վॻbᆃ൞٤ӈژކᆰत֥ࢲ:ંఒြࡅႚႵ֥Ԛҍڶᄀ؟,ᄝఒြໃটགྷࣁੀ෬౼ಃᇏ,ᅝ֥ܢٺб২ᄀն,ࣼᄀౠཟႿܱᇿགྷࣁੀ෮Ⴕಃջট֥൬ၭ,ط҂൞॥ᇅಃջট֥ದ൬ၭbఒြࡅ֥০ၭაఒြࡎᆴ(ࣉطაຓ҆ሧᆀ֥০ၭ)ᄀ၂ᇁ,ຓ҆ሧᆀ္ࣼᄀౠཟႿሧఒြࡅ֥ཛଢ,ၹՎ,ఒြࡅᄀିՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆࠆ֤վॻbᆃ၂ࢲંࠆ֤ਔࣜဒ࣮֥ᆦӻbᇭ؟σ২࣮іૼ,ᄝཌྷ֥अთࣜ࠶ଽ,ཌྷරվॻᆭࡗ֥০ੱҵљޓն[7-10]bሱႵሧࣁࢠ؟֥ఒြࡅ۷ಸၞࠆ֤ຓ҆ሧࣁ,ѩವሧӮЧ္۷֮bఃՑ,ॉҳཛଢӮۿൈ֥൬ၭؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙbؓൔ(13)xܱႿR֥ொ֝ඔ,ᆜުॖ:֤D$PR9xxw+x9R=$P(1+xw)xb(17)
158ᆄࡾն࿐࿐Б(ದ໓ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ)ֻ40जၹՎ,9x9R>0b(18)ൔ(17)ބ(18)іૼ,۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ఒြࡅӮۿൌീཛଢުࠆ֤֥གྷࣁੀਈᄀ؟,ࣼᄀିՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆᅳ֞ሧᆀཟิ܂վॻbᆃ္൞٤ӈژކᆰत֥ࢲ:ંఒြࡅӮۿൌീཛଢުࠆ֤֥གྷࣁੀᄀ؟,Ֆགྷࣁੀ෬౼ಃᇏࠆ֤֥൬ၭᄀն,ၹՎᄀౠཟႿܱᇿགྷࣁੀ෮Ⴕಃջট֥൬ၭ,ط҂൞॥ᇅಃջট֥ದ൬ၭbఒြࡅ֥০ၭაఒြࡎᆴ(ࣉطაຓ҆ሧᆀ֥০ၭ)ᄀ၂ᇁ,ս໙ีࣼᄀཬ,ຓ҆ሧᆀࣼᄀౠཟႿሧఒြࡅ֥ཛଢ,ఒြࡅՖطିࠆ֤۷؟վॻbᄜՑ,ॉҳႪᇉཛଢაਜᇉཛଢӮۿۀੱᆭҵؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙbؓൔ(13)xܱႿ$P֥ொ֝ඔ,ᆜުॖ֤:Dxw+$PR9x1=x9$PP[PHR(1+xw)-xw(1+i)]b(19)HၹՎ,9x9$P>0b(20)ൔ(19)ބ(20)іૼ,۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ႪᇉཛଢაਜᇉཛଢᆭࡗӮۿۀੱ֥ҵљᄀն,ఒြࡅࣼᄀିՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆᅳ֞ሧᆀཟิ܂վॻbᆃ၂ࢲં္٤ӈژކᆰत:ཌྷؓਜᇉཛଢط,ႪᇉཛଢᄀႪᄀ,ఒြࡅӮۿൌീཛଢުࠆ֤֥གྷࣁੀਈᄀ؟bაഈ૫োර֥ษ,ંіૼିՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆࠆ֤۷؟֥ሧᆀཟิ܂վॻbᆴ֤ᇿၩ֥൞,ఒြࡅ֥ሱႵሧࣁAaఒြࡅӮۿൌീཛଢުࠆ֤֥གྷࣁੀਈRaႪᇉཛଢაਜᇉཛଢᆭࡗӮۿۀੱ֥ҵљ$P֩აఒြࡅႵܱ֥ྐ༏,ࡼࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆᄹնbႏఒြႭః൞ᇏཬႏఒြ௴ђթᄝྐ༏҂ૼaࡅ๖ҍӁބఒြҍӁીႵ۬ࢸཋaҍༀᇅ؇҂ࡲಆ҂ປС֩໙,ีಌكژކ֥ܿٓఒြࣜႏ࠺aປ֥ҍༀБі֩૫߄ބܿٓ߄֥ၞႿԮ־ބࢳ֥႗ྐ༏bཌྷّ,ᇏཬႏఒြᄝವሧᇏॖၛ၇ঠ֥൞ೈྐ༏bၹՎ,ࠧᄝൌྛࣁವሱႮ߄֥ݓࡅބֹ,ಯಖթᄝᇏཬఒြվॻ໙ี[11-12,30]bᄝᇏཬఒြವሧ҂ቀ֥౦ঃ༯,ିܔູఒြิ܂၂קሧࣁ֥൞ࡗࣁವ,ط҂൞ᆞܿࣁವbߏࢳᇏཬఒြվॻ໙ี֥ܱ,൞Ⴕି৯ࠆ֤ѩԩᆃུೈྐ༏֥ࣁವࠏܒ[31],ᄝ၂קӱ؇ഈ๙ݖഈඍྟᇉ෮іᆘ֥ࠏᇅഡ࠹,۷ݺֹࢳथࣁವఔჿ෮૫ਢ֥ྐ༏҂ؓӫ໙ีbਟၪڏބႚफ֥࣮іૼ,აᆞܿࣁವࠏܒ၇ঠႿ႗ྐ༏҂,ࡗࣁವࠏܒ၇ঠֹჸaದჸࠇఃഅြܱ༢,Ֆطࠆ֤ఒြࡅ֥Ⴕܱೈྐ༏[30]bᆃུࢲં֤֞ਔޓ؟ࣜဒ࣮֥ᆦӻ[11-12]bቋ,ުॉҳఒြࡅՖ҂ཛଢᇏࠆ౼০֥ၞӱ؇bؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙb҂֥ཛଢ,ఒြࡅࠆ౼০֥ၞӱ؇ॖି҂bॉ੮֞D=b/a,ؓൔ(13)xܱႿb֥ொ֝ඔ,ᆜުॖ:֤DPR9xxw$+=-x(1+xw)/ab(21)x9bၹՎ,9x<0b(22)9bൔ(21)ބ(22)іૼ,۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ཛଢᄀႵ০Ⴟఒြࡅࠆ౼০ՖطӁളսӮЧ,ఒြࡅࣼᄀՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆࠆ֤վॻbᆃ၂ࢲં္൞٤ӈژކᆰत,္֥ࠆ֤ਔ၂ק֥ࡗࢤࣜဒᆦӻb২ೂ,ᄝ໑ᇜুౢ൧,෮Ⴕؿളࠢሧྛູ֥ఒြᇏ,֮ఖఒြᄝඔਈഈᅝ52%,ᄝࠢሧ
ֻ2௹અ֣ૼ ᒳ༌Қ:ࣁವఔჿაࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟ159ح؇ഈᅝ71%;ᄝᇜߛ֥ൊa၄ူྛြᇏ,ఒြࠢሧ૫ղ֞60%ቐႷ,༶ंཅ֥۽ၜྛြࠢሧ૫ղ֞50%bᆃུྛြᄝֹ֒൞ᇶੀაᇶေྛြ,ఒြࡅູਔົӻھྛြᄝᆄࡾസମᇀಆݓֹ໊֥,ିሱੰֹཋᇅૌᄝ࿊ᄴཛଢᇏ֥ս໙ีb五a社区特征与局域金融市场规模༯໓ॉҳഠหᆘ,Їওֆ໊ഠ֥ࡗሧЧनႚႵਈWaഠ֥ഠ߶ᇅ؇აܿٓaᆃུၹؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙb൮༵,ؓൔ(13)xܱႿW֥ொ֝ඔ,ᆜުॖ:֤Dxw+$PR9x$P1+i1x9W=-xPH1+xWb(23)AၹՎ,9x9W<0;(24)9D9W=W9x9W+x>0b(25)ഈඍൔіૼ,۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ֆ໊ഠ֥ࡗሧЧनႚႵਈWᄀն,ࠇᆀھֹ֥ࣜ࠶ᄀؿղ,ૄ۱ሧᆀ෮ିิ܂֥ሧࣁᄀ؟,ཛଢ෮ླေ֥ሧᆀඔਈࣼᄀഒ,ຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆ֥ܿଆࣼᄀնbֆ໊ഠ֥ࡗሧЧनႚႵਈWؓຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆ֥ܿଆDӁള႕ཙᇶေ๙ݖਆ۱ਫ਼ࣥb൮,༵Wᆰࢤ႕ཙD:۳קሧᆀඔਈ҂э,Wᄀն,Dᄀն,ѩᆃ۱ᆰࢤ֥ш࠽ིႋ֩ႿxbՎൈ,ࡗሧЧᄀྦި,Ԕ֥ࠢሧࣁᄀ؟,ս໙ีᄀᇗbఃՑ,Wߎॖၛ๙ݖ႕ཙx,Ֆطࡗࢤ႕ཙD:Wᄀն,xᄀཬ,ѩᆃ۱ࡗࢤ֥ш࠽ིႋ֩ႿW9x9WbՎൈ,ႮႿֆ໊ഠ֥ࡗሧЧनႚႵਈᄀ؟,ఒြ෮ླ֥ຓ҆ሧᆀࣼᄀഒ,/૧ٮձӚ0໙ีᄀ҂ᇗ,ᄀႵ০Ⴟሧᆀࣉྛࡓ,ս໙ี္ࣼᄀ҂ᇗ,Վൈ,ᆰࢤིႋᅝႪႿࡗࢤིႋbᆃဢ,๙ݖᆰࢤིႋิۚਔ൧ӆܿଆ,ႮՎӁള֥۷ৢ֥ս໙ีᄵ๙ݖࡗࢤིႋ֤֞ߏބbఃՑ,ॉҳࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ഠ߶ᇅ؇a໓߄აܿٓ֩ߌၹaؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙbॉ੮֞D=b/a,ؓൔ(13)xܱႿa֥ொ֝ඔ,ᆜުॖ:֤Dxw$PR+9xx9a=Dx(1+xw)/ab(26)ၹՎ,9x>0b(27)9aൔ(26)ބ(27)іૼ,۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ഠ߶ᇅ؇a໓߄აܿٓ֩ߌᄀݺ,ሧᆀࡓఒြࡅི֥ੱᄀ,ۚఒြࡅࣼᄀିՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆᅳ֞ሧᆀཟิ܂վॻbᆃ္൞٤ӈژކᆰत֥ࢲ:ંࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ഠ߶༝a໓߄აܿٓ֩ߌᄀݺ,ሧᆀࡓఒြࡅི֥ੱᄀۚ,ఒြࡅᄀ๙ݖ࿊ᄴཛଢ֥॥ᇅಃࠆ֤০bၹՎ,ఒြࡅ֥০ၭაຓ҆ሧᆀ֥০ၭᄀ၂ᇁ,ս໙ีࣼᄀཬbᆞೂૌᄝభ૫෮ษં֥,ᆃ၂ࢲંޓݺֹࢳਔӧᆽ֥ࣜဒ࣮[28]bGuiso֩ದ֥࣮іૼ,ഠ߶ᇅ؇a໓߄ބܿٓಒൌ႕ཙਔࣜ࠶ؿᅚݖӱᇏࣁವᇅ؇֥ؿᅚଆൔ,Ֆط႕ཙਔದनGDP[32]b
160ᆄࡾն࿐࿐Б(ದ໓ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ)ֻ40ज六a正规金融与局域金融市场规模ࣁವၝᇅ൞ؿᅚᇏݓࡅބֹ֥܋หᆘ,ᇶေіགྷູᆟکؓࣁವࠃ఼֥ᇅۄყ,২ೂದֹູ॥ᇅ০ੱބҵљؓրݓႵఒြაႏఒြ֥ࣁವڛༀbႮႿؿᅚᇏݓࡅ֥ሧࣁ܂۳҂ԉღ,ᆟکສສܿקਔ০ੱഈཋ,ѩఆ൪ྟֹؓրႏఒြ֥ሧࣁླbࢲݔ,֤֞ሧࣁ֥ສສ൞აᆟکࠏܒႵૡ్ܱ༢֥ྛြބ҆,طྍԷϷ֥aऎႵࢠն҂ಒקྟ֥ᇏཬఒြၛՖݓႵၿྛࠆ֤վॻ,ᆺିᇹႿ٤ᆞൔ֥ࡗࣁವ൧ӆbᄝݓ,ࣁವุ༢აྸ؟ఒြ֥ݓႵྟᇉྐվᆟҦऎႵ٤ӈ఼ਛ֥ᇅ؇ఆ൪bݓႵ֥ᆞܿࣁವ҆ࡼնਈ֥ሧࣁվ۳ݓႵఒြbႮႿݓႵఒြಌكࠃ৯aಌഒॖྛ֥ሧࠏ߶,ՖطીႵሱളି৯,ᆃোվॻӈӈ૫ਢ٤ӈ֥ۚິჿڄག¹bಖطؓႿݓႵၿྛ֥ܵҪބᆯჴط,ᆃᇕվॻνஆᄝᆟᇍഈ൞ᆞಒ֥bෙಖᆃུվॻࣜӈԛགྷິჿ,֝ᇁၿྛ֥շᅬᇌᅬੱ٤ӈۚ,ݓႵၿྛ֥ܵҪބᆯჴၹՎ૫ਢ֥۱ದᆯြڄགބ০ၭാಏбࢠཬbჅவ࠰ބಪ,ູሱ1952୍ၛট,ࣁವၝᇅࣼ൞ᇏݓၿྛᇅ؇֥ᇶေหᆘᆭ၂[33]bᅦफ[6]aT[34]saiࠣൎ࣋ԫ֩ದ[7-10]ؓᆄࡾࡗࣁವ֥ᇭ؟טඔऌaσ২ބٳ༅іૼ,ႮႿݓࡅؓႏఒြൌྛࣁವၝᇅᆟҦ,ႏఒြၛՖᆞܿࣁವ҆ࠆ֤ቀܔ֥ሧࣁb࣐ܵೂՎ,ᆞܿࣁವಯಖ߶႕ཙࡗࣁವ:ᆞܿࣁವ০ੱ๙ݖ႕ཙຓ҆ሧᆀ֥ࠏ߶ӮЧ,ࣉطՖሧࣁ֥܂۳૫႕ཙࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆbູ҂ാ၂Ϯ,ྟࡌഡᆞܿࣁವ০ੱაࡗࣁವ൧ӆڄག০ੱᆭࡗթᄝଖᇕܥק৳༢b൮༵,ॉҳᆞܿࣁವ০ੱࠇ൧ӆڄག০ੱؓࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆ֥႕ཙbؓൔ(13)xܱႿi֥ொ֝ඔ,ᆜުॖ:֤Dxw$PR9x$P+=-x9(1+i)Pxwb(28)HၹՎ,9x<0b(29)9(1+i)ൔ(28)ބ(29)іૼ,۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ᆞܿࣁವ০ੱᄀۚ,ఒြࡅࣼᄀՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆᅳ֞ሧᆀཟิ܂վॻbᆃ၂ࢲં္٤ӈژކᆰत:ᆞܿࣁವ০ੱᄀۚ,ູਔ་ႄຓ҆ሧᆀሧႿఒြࡅ֥ཛଢ,ఒြࡅсྶᄝཛଢӮۿൈཟሧᆀᆦڱ۷؟֥གྷࣁੀb۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ఒြࡅՖགྷࣁੀ෬౼ಃᇏࠆ֤֥൬ၭᄀཬ,ఒြࡅࣼᄀౠཟႿܱᇿ॥ᇅಃջট֥ದ൬ၭ,ط҂൞གྷࣁੀ෮Ⴕಃջট֥൬ၭbఒြࡅაຓ҆ሧᆀ֥০ၭᄀ҂၂ᇁ,ս໙ีࣼᄀᇗ,ఒြࡅՖطᄀՖຓ҆ࣁವ൧ӆࠆ֤վॻbਸ਼ຓ,ൔ(9)іૼ,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ০ੱrડቀ:1+i1+r=Pb(30)Hൔ(30)іૼ,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ০ੱაᆞܿࣁವ০ੱ৳bࢲކൔ(29)ა(30),ૌॖၛ֤ԛၛ༯ࢲ:ં۳קః่ࡱ҂э,ᆞܿࣁವ൧ӆ০ੱᄀۚ,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ০ੱࣼᄀۚ,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆᄀཬb¹ਟၪڏ֥၂༢ਙ࣮ษંਔႵܱሱളି৯აವሧ֥ܱ༢໙ี,ਟၪڏބႚफ֥࣮ᆺ൞ఃᇏᆭ၂bႵܱᆃٚ૫֥བྷ༥ษં,ॖҕॉૌ෮ڸ֥໓ངb
ֻ2௹અ֣ૼ ᒳ༌Қ:ࣁವఔჿაࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆ྟ161ࣜဒіૼ,ളӁࣜႏླေ֥ࡗࠢሧ֥ܿଆބ০ੱૼཁ൳֞ᆞܿࣁವ֥႕ཙb۴ऌᇏݓದၿྛᇜ൧ᇏྏᆦྛ֥טҰ,ႏఒြՖࡗࣁವ൧ӆԔࠢሧࣁ֥ཌྷؓܿଆა০ੱ,აֹ֒ᆞܿࣁವ֥ؿղӱ؇ӯّཟэܱ༢b1۳ԛਔ1989)2003୍ࡗمקվॻ০ੱაࡗࢹվ০ੱ֥э൝bೂ1෮ൕ,ၿྛمקվॻ০ੱაࡗࢹվ০ੱླྀэ߄bᄝ1989)1993୍ࡗ,مקվॻ০ੱაࡗࢹվ০ੱӯ༯ࢆ൝,1993)1996୍ࡗӯཬږഈശ൝,ѩᄝᆃਆ؍ൈࡗଽ,ᆃਆ۱০ੱӯྛሑэ;1996)2003୍ࡗӯ༯ࢆ൝,ѩ༯ࢆږ؇٤ӈնbᆴ֤ᇿၩ֥൞,ᇏ෮ൕ֥ඔऌ൞ၬ০ੱ,ط҂൞ൌ࠽০,ੱѩمקթॻ০ੱᇏ္ໃॉ੮ԥྐྵЌᆴᆟҦbၹՎ,бࢠࡗࢹվ০ੱაمקվॻ০ੱ֥ҵए൞ၩၬ,֥২ೂ1989୍ਆᆀཌྷҵ27%,طᄝ2003୍ᆺཌྷҵ213%bᇗေ֥൞,Ֆ1ᇏॖၛुԛ,ࡗࢹվ০ੱაمקվॻ০ੱླྀэ߄,Ֆطіૼᆃਆᇕ০ੱᆭࡗթᄝ৳༢b1 مקվॻ০ੱაࡗࢹվ০ੱླྀэ(1989)2003)¹七a结 论Ч໓ᄝॉҳݓࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ᇅ؇Мࣟބࣜဒܿᇅ֥ࠎԤഈ,ܒᄯਔ၂۱ࡥֆ֥҂ປಆವሧఔჿଆ,ॉҳਔࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥अ҆,ྟၛࠣᄝअ҆ྟหᆘ༯ఒြ֥ሧЧࢲܒหᆘbࡗࣁವअ҆ྟ֥ܱ,൞ᄝሧᆀؓఒြࡅࡓ֥ݖӱᇏթᄝ/૧ٮձӚ0໙:ีຓ҆ሧᆀඔਈᄀ؟,ؓఒြࡅࣜႏࠃ֥ࡓིੱࣼᄀ֮bଖ၂ຓളၹ(ೂࢠ֥ۚളӁඌི)ੱ֝ᇁఒြࡅॖၛՖࡗࣁವ൧ӆࠆ֤۷؟֥ሧࣁ,۳קഠ֥ࣜ࠶ڶღӱ؇,ླေ۷؟֥ሧᆀཟఒြิ܂ሧࣁbՎൈ,ሧᆀؓఒြࡅ֥ࡓӱ؇ࢆ֮bૌॖၛᆣૼ,۳קఃຓളၹ҂э,ఒြሱႵሧࣁᄀ؟,ఒြ֥ඌིੱᄀۚ,ႪᇉཛଢཌྷؓႿਜᇉཛଢ֥Ӯۿۀੱᄀն,ֹࡗሧЧᄀྦ,ިࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ഠ߶ᇅ؇a໓߄აܿٓ֩ߌၹᄀႪᄀ,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆࣼᄀն;ࡗࣁವ൧ӆ֥ڄག০ੱඣᄀۚ,ఒြཛଢᄀႵ০Ⴟఒြࡅକ౼০,ࡗࣁವ൧ӆܿଆࣼᄀཬbഈඍଆ֥ٳ༅ࢲંᄝࣜဒ࣮ᇏࠆ֤ਔᆦӻbླေᆷԛ֥൞,ࠎႿఒြҪ૫ඔऌ,Ⴍః൞טඔऌ,ॉҳ၂קთᇏႏఒြ֥ሧЧࢲܒหᆘѩဒЧ໓֥ܴׄ,൞٤ӈᆴ֤ࣉྛ֥࣮ٚཟbਸ਼ຓ,ࡗࣁವაᆞܿࣁವ֥ۿିҵၳაཌྷቔႨࠣఃؓࠊлᆟҦ֥႕ཙ,္൞ᆴ֤ॉҳ֥ᇗေ໙ีbᄝ၂۱ࡗࣁವ٤ӈؿղֹ֥ٚ,ࠊлᆟ¹ඔऌটჷ:ࡗࢹվ০ੱඔऌটሱႿൎ࣋ԫᇶщ5֥ᇏݓႏࣜ࠶ؿᅚБ6ۡ(ഈҨ),(Кࣘ)ࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠ2006୍ϱ,ֻ306်bمקվॻ০ੱބمקթॻ০ੱඔऌٳљটሱႿᇏࣜຩ/ࣁವࠏܒمקվॻ০0ੱބ/ࣁವࠏܒمקթॻ০0ੱᇏ֥6۱ᄅ؋௹০ੱ,ૄ୍नࢩ౼୍֒7ᄅ1ರ֥০ੱb
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