ֻ9ज ֻ4௹科 技 和 产 业Vol19,No14 2009୍ 4ᄅ ScienceTechnologyandIndustryApr., 2009ॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ൪࢘༯ܢ০ંაܢ০ᆟҦ࣮陈 建(湖南农业大学经济学院;湖南财经高等专科学校会计系,长沙410205)ᅋေ:从可持续增长的模型入手,从一个全新的角度探讨了传统经典股利理论和股利政策与企业财务可持续增长的关联性,为全面a正确认识股利理论和股利政策提供了一种新的方法,为实务中决策者制定股利政策提供理论参考bܱՍ:股利理论;股利政策;可持续增长;关联性ᇏٳোݼ:F275 ໓ངѓᆽ:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1671-1807(2009)04-0069-03ܢ০ᆟҦ֥ྟᇉބ႕ཙࣉྛֻ֥၂Ց༢֥ٳ༅ބ1 ॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ֥ۀაଆ࣮bMMᄝ၂༢ਙૡ֥ࡌഡ่ࡱ༯(ᆃ่ུࡱૅݓࣜ࠶࿐ࡅRobertC1Higgims࢝൱ࡼ܄ඳॖЇও/ປ֥ሧЧ൧ӆ0a/ྟྛູ0ބ/ԉٳಒקӻ࿃ᄹӉੱקၬ/ູᄝ҂ླေݻ࣐ҍༀሧჷ౦ঃ༯܄ྟ0)ᆣૼਔ܄ඳ֥ܢ০ᆟҦაఒြࡎᆴܱࠇᆀඪඳཧ൲ॖିᄹӉ֥ቋնбੱ0[1]b܄ඳ֥ܢ০ᆟҦ҂ᇗေ,ࠧܢ০ᆟҦ҂߶ؓ܄ඳ֥ܢ၂Ϯડቀೂ༯ऎุࡌഡ:¹܄ඳሧӁෛཧ൲Ӯௐࡎ۬ࠇఃሧࣁӮЧӁളޅ႕ཙb۴ऌᆃ၂ં,ᆞб২ᄹӉ(ሧӁᇛሇੱ҂э);º࣪০აཧ൲حᆭ܄ඳࡎᆴࠇܢௐࡎ۬ປಆႮሧथҦ෮थק֥ࠆ০б൞၂۱ӈඔ(ཧ൲࣪০ੱ҂э);»܄ඳܢ০ᆟҦ࠻ି৯,Ⴍః൞ॖӻ࿃֥႔০ି৯෮႕ཙ,ط٤౼थႿק(թ൬ၭੱ҂э);¼ሧЧࢲܒ࠻ק(Ӂಃбੱࠇ܄ඳ֥႔Ⴥٳٚൔ](ࠧܢ০ᆟҦ[4)bሧӁڵᅏੱࠇಃၭӰඔ҂э);½܄ඳؿྛᄝຓ֥ܢ212 ൭ᇏᆭંௐܢඔ҂э(܄ඳ๙ݖթ൬ၭࠆ֤ܢಃሧࣁ),ᄝՎ/൭ᇏᆭ0ંჷႿထე/චᄝਟ҂ೂ၂ᄝࡌഡࠎԤഈ҂֤ԛೂ༯ॖӻ࿃ᄹӉଆ[2]:ॖӻ࿃൭0bھંॖၛඪ൞ੀྛቋܼٗބቋӻࣲ֥ܢ০ᄹӉੱ=PATR/(1-PATR)=(ROE@R)/(1-ંbఃԚ௹іགྷູܢ০ᇗေં,ުࣜݖຯ৷ଚථaਟROE@R)หବaหaބۥ֨֩ؿᅚ/ູ൭ᇏᆭ0ંbఃᇏP)ཧ൲࣪০ੱA)ሧӁᇛሇੱT)௹ଌಃၭӰۥ֨֒൞ھં֥ᇶေ֥սіದb1959୍,ۥ֨ඔR)թ൬ၭੱROE)P@A@T)ಃၭ࣪০ੱࣼ֒ൈದૌ๙ӈಪູܓઙܢௐ൞ູਔܢௐໃটࡎ۬,۴ऌॖӻ࿃ᄹӉଆ,ܢ০ᆟҦ൞႕ཙҍༀॖӻೂݔໃটࡎ۬౼थႿყ௹֥ܢ০ࠇ႔০,ᄵሧᆀ࿃ᄹӉ֥ၹᆭ၂[3],ପહܢ০ᆟҦ൞ᄝહҪ૫ഈܓઙܢௐ٤൞ԛႿ۱ࠏ:¹ࣇູਔܢ০;ºࣇၝࠇ൞ᄝ؟նӱ؇ഈ႕ཙਔఒြҍༀॖӻ࿃ᄹӉඣູਔ႔০;»ൈູਔܢ০ބ႔০bۥ֨ಪ,ູԮ?ૌՖ༆ٚܢ০ંᇏିܔ֤֞ଖུఓؿbٚمಌഒંඪૼ,ิԛਔ၂ᇕӫ/ູܢ০ა႔০2 ༆ٚܢ০ંࡥඍཌྷ৳༢֥ܢௐࡎ۬э0ં,ࠧࣜݖٳ༅,ܢ০ა႔ܢ০ં෮૫֥ؓ၂۱ࠎЧ໙ีࣼ൞ܢ০აࡎ০ࡌඪa႔০ࡌඪ҂ିӮ৫bંٳ༅ބൌᆣٳ༅ᆴᆭࡗ֥ཌྷܱྟ,طఒြࡎᆴࡹ৫ᄝॖӻ࿃ᄹӉି৯नᆦӻܢ০ࡌඪ,ࠧሧᆀܓઙܢௐ൞ູਔܢ০,܄ࠎԤഈbඳ႔০ᄝܢ০ބթ႔০ᆭࡗ֥ٳಒൌି႕ཙܢ211 MMܢ০ܱંௐࡎ۬b1962,୍ۥ֨۴ऌ၂ུࡌഡ่ࡱ,๙ݖඔ࿐ᄝܢ০ં࣮ᇏ,ቋᇗေ֥໓ང൞Miller࢝ٳ༅ંᆣ,ࣉ၂҄ປਔຯ৷ଚථ1938୍Է৫֥ܢ൱აModigliani࢝൱ؿіႿ1961୍֥࿐ඌં໓5ܢௐࡎᆴܢ০์གྷଆb1963୍Ⴛؓھଆࣉྛਔྩ০ᆟҦaᄹӉაܢௐܙࡎ6,ھં໓Ф࿐ඌࢸಪູ൞ؓᆞ,ቋᇔิԛਔᇷ/֥൭ᇏ0ଆ:൬۠ರ௹:2009-02-18ࠎࣁཛଢ:湖南省哲学社会科学成果评审委员会立项课题(课题号0808027B)的阶段性研究成果bቔᆀࡥࢺ:陈建(1966))男,湖南津市人,湖南财经高等专科学校会计系副主任a副教授,湖南农业大学经济学院博士研究生,研究方向:财务与审计b69
॓ބӁြ ֻ9ज ֻ4௹ ]Dt۴ऌҍༀॖӻ࿃ᄹӉଆ,ܢ০֥ؿ٢აڎ,(ࠇᆀ൞V=Et=1(1+Kt)ܢ০ᆟҦ֥ऎุνஆ)ؓఒြ֥ॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ္҂߶Ӂൔᇏ:V)ܢௐࡎ۬D)ܢ০K)ሧᆀေ֥ള۴Ч֥႕ཙ,ᆺေࣜႏࠃԷᄯགྷࣁੀਈି৯҂сေБԏੱэ,թ൬ၭνஆ֥གྷࣁੀਈࣼ҂߶൳֞ࠞնཋᇅbႮՎॖ,ೂݔKэ,ఒြ֥ܢௐࡎᆴࣼෛᆭູਔิۚఒြॖӻ࿃ᄹӉඣิശఒြࡎᆴ,ҍༀದэ,ѩაܢ০ᆟҦႵܱb෮ၛ,֒Kэൈ,ܢჴᆺླܱᇿႿሧЧყෘ֥॓࿐थҦ,ѩၛ࠻ק֥ሧЧ০ᆟҦ߶႕ཙఒြܢௐ֥ࡎᆴb/ᄝ൭ᆭ0ં൞ყෘູࠎԤ,ིۚੱֹνஆఒြ֥ವሧࠃაܢ০ٳ۴ऌؓሧᆀྏሑ֥ٳ༅ิԛ֥bૌಪູ,Ⴎஊࠃ,॓࿐ֹ॥ᇅರӈ֥ႏᄎሧЧᄎቔ,ิۚࣜႏႿሧᆀؓڄགႵ฿ളّ֥ۋ,ѩಪູڄགࡼෛൈི,ੱᆃུࠃႵᇹႿሧЧथҦ֥ඨ০ൌീ,Ҍିࡗ֥Ӊطᄹն,ၹطૌಪ,ູ๙ݖЌ႔ჅᄜЌᅰՖ۴Чഈิۚఒြॖӻ࿃ᄹӉି৯[7]bሧطࠆ֤֥ሧЧ০֤֥҂ಒקྟေۚႿܢ০ᆦڱ֥4 ܢ০ᆟҦაॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ:ഺჅܢ০ᆟҦ҂ಒקྟ,Ֆطܢ০֥ᄹࡆ൞གྷൌaᇀܱᇗေ֥bൌಒקඥު࣪০ೂޅᄝགྷࣁܢ০ٳஊა܄ඳթ࠽ିଦ֞൭֥ܢ০,ᄹࡆթ൬ၭުᄜሧ֤֥֞ᆭࡗࣉྛٳ൞܄ඳܢ০ᆟҦ֥ᇗေଽಸ,္൞႕ཙໃট൬ၭཌྷб,ުᆀ֥ڄགն֤؟b෮ၛ,ሧᆀୡҍༀॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ֥ၹᆭ၂b۴ऌၛഈٳ༅,ေิۚ჻ଢభ൬֞ࢠഒ֥ܢ০,္҂჻֩֞ࡼটᄜ൬߭҂ಒҍༀॖӻ࿃ᄹӉඣބఒြࡎᆴ,ܱᄝႿࣜႏࠃק֥ࢠն֥ܢ০ࠇࠆ֤ࢠ֥ۚܢௐԛ൲ࡎ۬bطԷᄯགྷࣁੀਈ֥ି৯,طࣜႏࠃԷᄯགྷࣁੀਈ֥؟ሧᆀ֥ഈඍනམႻ߶Ӂള༯ඍࢲݔ:܄ඳೂݔЌ০ഒ,Ԣਔଽ҆डమ৯,ิۚࣜႏིੱຓ(ЇওڿэҍႨႿᄜሧ,ପહໃট֥൬ၭсྶοᆞӈ֥൧ӆ߭ༀᆟҦೂิۚۗۆඣ,иࣨႵཋ),ܱႻ౼थႿБੱބڄགၮࡎᆭބᄜ์གྷ,္ࣼ൞ඪ,ሧᆀ҂ࣇ܄ඳሧЧყෘඣ֥֮ۚbྍഈሧཛଢ(Їওѩေࠆ֤൧ӆඣ֥ሧ߭Б,طေ܄ඳູૌܓaᇗቆ֩)෮ջট֥ࢠ؟֥࣪གྷᆴ,൞උႿ܄ඳܢಃӵք֥ڄགᆦڱБԏbڎᄵ,ᄝဢࡎᆴ֥གྷࣁܢ০ሧЧሧᆀ෮ႚႵ֥ӑح൬ၭ,ၐ,ᄝఒြႚႵਅაሧЧᄹᆴᆭࡗ,ሧᆀࡼ࿊ᄴభᆀb္ࣼ൞ඪ,ᄝݺ֥ሧࠏ߶֥౦ঃ༯,ܵ֒अ൮༵ႋ֒ડቀሧЧܢௐყ௹Бԏੱ֥܄ൔ(ks=D1/p0+g)ᇏ,ႮႿყყෘؓሧࣁ֥ླေ,ࡼсေ֥ඥު႔০թᄝ܄ඳଽ௹ܢ০൬ၭੱ(D1/P0)֥ڄགཬႿఃӮӉੱ(g),҆Ⴈၛᄜሧ,ၛ௹ᄝࡼটԷᄯ۷؟֥གྷࣁੀਈ,ิ෮ၛ,ᄝሧᆀྏᇏ,၂ჭఫགྷࣁܢ০֥ࡎᆴӑݖਔۚሧБԏඣb෮໌ഺჅܢ০ᆟҦ,ᆞ൞ࡹ৫ᄝၛ၂ჭఫሧЧ֥ᄹᆴ֥ࡎᆴbᆃ၂္ܴׄၹՎФྙའഈંࠎԤᆭഈ,֥ऎႵ۴Чၩၬ֥ܢ০ᆟҦb֥ۀও/ູ၂ᄝ൭0ંbοᅶഺჅܢ০ᆟҦ,܄ඳଢѓܢ০ᆦڱੱ֥ಒקԢഈඍਆᇕᇶေંຓ,ܢ০ંߎЇও/ବඥ౼थႿၛ༯ၹ:¹܄ඳ֥ሧࠏ߶;º܄ඳଢѓሧҵၳં0a/ܢ০ྐݼ0ંބ/֒൙ದ႕ཙં0bЧࢲܒ;»ຓ҆ವሧ֥ॖିྟࠣఃሧЧӮЧbطಒק3 ܢ০ંაॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ֥ܱ৳ྟଢѓܢ০ᆦڱੱ֥ӱնᇁ:ູ¹ಒקሧЧყෘ;ºၛഈ෮ิ֥ࠣܢ০ં,ԢਔMMܢ০ܱᄝଢѓሧЧࢲܒ࠻ק౦ঃ༯,ಒקડቀሧЧყෘ෮ླંᆭຓ,ః֥෮໌ܢ০ં҂ݖ൞ؓ۲ᇕܢ০ᆟҦေ֥ܢಃሧЧඔح;»࣐ॖି֥Ⴈඥު႔০টડቀ֥၂ᇕࢳطၘbၹູᆇᆞၩၬഈ֥ܢ০(ંఃൌሧЧሧཛଢؓܢಃሧЧ֥ླ;¼ᄝડቀሧЧሧ҂ࣇࣇ൞ܢ০,ં္Їওః၂్֥ҍༀ࿐ඪࠇཛଢ֥ࠎԤഈ,ೂݔߎႵഺჅ֥ඥު႔০,ᄵॖࡼՎંb)࣮ฐษ֥ႋ֒൞ܢ০ᆟҦაఒြᄹӉ,ܢ০ᆟႨႿؿ٢གྷࣁܢ০bҦაఒြࡎᆴᆭࡗ֥ཌྷܱྟ[5]b၂్აఒြࡎᆴࠣ҂ुԛ,ᄝഺჅܢ০ᆟҦ༯,൙ൌഈ܄ඳીႵఃᄹӉܱ֥ҍༀᆟҦ൞҂ᇗေ֥ࠇᆀ൞Ցေ֥ܢ০ᆟҦbၹູܢ০֥ᆦڱሑঃປಆ၇ঠႿ܄ඳႵҍༀᆟҦ,ط၂్აఒြࡎᆴࠣఃᄹӉႵܱ֥ҍༀथીႵྍ֥ሧЧሧཛଢbط,ᄝఒြཧࠊحѯaҦҌ൞۴Ч֥ᇗေ֥ҍༀᆟҦbགྷࣁܢ০֥؟ഒ,ՖሧЧሧཛଢѯ֥౦ঃ༯,ܢ০ᆦڱ౦ྙဢԩᄝ۴Чഈ౼थႿࣜႏࠃԷᄯགྷࣁੀਈ֥؟ഒ,ࣜႏࠃखਛ֥ѯᇏbՖଖᇕၩၬഈࢃ[8],ᆃ҂০Ⴟ܄ඳਅ֥གྷࣁੀਈᄀ؟,ॖႨႿܢ০ᆦڱ֥གྷࣁࣼԉღ,ݺྙའ֥အbᆃ၂ᆟҦቋն֥Ⴊ൝,္൞܄ඳࣜႏࠃ֥གྷࣁੀਈᄀഒ,གྷࣁܢ০֥ؿ٢ࣼᄀҍದჴቋູܱྏ֥໙,ีь൞ॖၛЌӻ܄ඳଢѓ֥ሧ[6]b൞,сྶᆷԛ֥൞,ܢ০֥ؿ٢ؓࣜႏࠃЧࢲܒѩა܄ඳໃটൈ௹֥ሧЧሧࠏ߶ࣅૡ֥ࢲԷᄯགྷࣁੀਈ֥ି৯ѩ҂߶Ӂളᆰࢤ֥႕ཙbൈކ,ᄝሧЧሧཛଢ॓࿐ყҩܙࠎԤഈ,ഺჅܢ০70
ॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ൪࢘༯ܢ০ંაܢ০ᆟҦ࣮ ᆟҦၐ൞აҍༀॖӻ࿃ᄹӉቋປ֥ࢲކbؓิ؇,ुေิശఒြҍༀॖӻ࿃ᄹӉି৯,҂ં൞ܥۚॖӻ࿃ᄹӉඣఏ֞ቔႨ,࣐ܵᄝൌༀᇏ,Ⴎקࠇ໗ק֥ܢ০ᆟҦߎ൞ܥקܢ০ᆦڱੱᆟҦބ֮ႿഺჅᆟҦ֥ଖུр؊,ࠧ൞ᄝ၂۱ᆟҦູࠞਲࠃᆞӈܢ০ࡆحຓܢ০ᆟҦაሧЧሧყෘؿള҂֥܄ඳ૫,္҂߶ປಆοᅶഺჅܢ০ᆟҦটಒק۲ॖх૧֥؛აԊb۱௹ࡗ֥ܢ০ᆦڱ,ھᆟҦಯಖൡႨႿؓ܄ඳໃট၂۱ࢠӉൈ௹ଽܢ০ٳஊੱ֥ಒק,ࠧοᅶഺჅܢ০ҕॉ໓ངᆟҦ֥නਫ਼টಒקၛު5୍10୍ࠇᆀ۷Ӊൈ௹ଽ֥[1]ROBERTCHIGGINS1AnalysisforFinancialManagement.ܢ০ٳஊб২,ఃၩၬॣஃ۷؟֥൞ุགྷᄝҍದჴ6thed[M].TheMcGraw-HillEducation(Asia)companies,֥ҍܴڿэ,ࡹ৫ᄝఒြӉჹؿᅚ০ၭ֥ࠎԤᆭInc2001:115-141.ഈb[2]ӧࡹ.൫ંఒြॖӻ࿃ᄹӉ[J].ҍༀა߶࠹,2003(2):25-27.ഺჅܢ০ᆟҦࢣൕਔ໙ี֥ނྏ෮ᄝ,ఃൌ൞[3]ҍᆟ҆ᇿҨ߶࠹ഽॉ൫ჴ߶Ϸ܄൩.ҍༀӮЧܵ[M].КMMܢ০ܱં֥ࠞݺุགྷbࣘ:ࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠ,2003:68-69.ԢਔഺჅܢ০ᆟҦᆭຓ,ࢠӈҐႨ֥ܢ০ᆟҦߎ[4]MODIGLIANIF,,growthandႵthevaluationofshares[J].JournalofBusiness,1961,34:411:ܥקࠇ໗קܢ০ᆟҦ,ܥקܢ০ᆦڱੱᆟҦ,֮ᆞӈܢ০ࡆحຓܢ০ᆟҦb-433.[5]Ⴒཫڂ,ᆽٙ.ҍༀॖӻ࿃ᄹӉଆࠣఃႋႨ[J].߶࠹ၛഈުᇕܢ০ᆟҦᇶေ൞ࠎႿ໗קሧᆀྐ࣮,2003(6):48-50.ྏބ܄ඳܢࡎ(ቔູഈ൧܄ඳສສಪູܢࡎսіܢת[6]ކ༟,ޱ.ݓഈ൧܄ඳགྷࣁܢ০ٳᆟҦ႕ཙၹ࣮ҍڶࠇ܄ඳࡎᆴ)طҐ౼֥ᆟҦbఒြᄝࣉྛҍༀܿ[J].ҍༀა߶࠹,2004(2):22.߃ൈ[7]ᅦᄉ๕.פࠩҍༀሹࡓ[M].ྩרϱ.Кࣘ:ᇏྐԛϱഠ,,ಒקܢ০ᆟҦ൞၂۱٤ӈᇗေ֥ଽಸ,ൈ໗ק֥ܢ০ᆟҦ္ಒൌؓ܄ඳࡎᆴ֥໗קބົӻఒြ2003:357-359.[8]ລ.ҍༀં[M].Кࣘ:ࣜ࠶ܵԛϱഠ,2003:149.ॖӻ࿃ᄹӉି৯ఏ֞ٳᇗေ֥ቔႨ,Ֆ֥࢘UnderSustainableGrowthAngleofViewDividendTheoryandDividendPolicyResearchCHENJian(TheEconomicalInstituteofHunanAgriculturalUniversity;TheAccountingDepartmentofHunanFinanceandEconomicsCollege,Changsha410205,China)Abstract:Inthispaper,themodelofsustainablegrowth,:dividendtheory;dividendpolicies;sustainablegrowth;relevance(ഈࢤֻ42်)TheResearchoftheManagementModelinArchitecturalConstructionRisks1LIUL-ina,HANW2ei,LIUW3ei(,RizhaoShandong276826,China;,RizhaoShandong276800,China;,RizhaoShandong276800,China)Abstract:Toconstructionenterprise,duetotheRawmaterialsaconstructionmethodaorganizationandmanagementacompositionaprojectinvest-mentaconstructionenvironmentandperiodimpact,,:riskmanagement;projectmanagement;managementmodel71
