뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚12웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol128,No1122009쓪ꆡꆡ12퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconomicsDec.,2009컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱벨킧퇐뺿샮ꆡ쎷(커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺,커몺430072)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄틔랢짺폚2000ꆪ2007쓪뗄36웰컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺쫂볾캪퇹놾,퓋폃떥튻횸뇪램뫍ퟛ뫏횸뇪램,쪵횤볬퇩쇋컒맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱벨킧ꆣ믹폚떥튻횸뇪램뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺뫳,웤펯샻쓜솦폐쯹쿂붵;믹폚ퟛ뫏횸뇪램뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쪵쪩뿧맺늢릺뫳,쯤좻웤뛌웚ퟛ뫏벨킧캴쓜뗃떽룄짆,떫늢릺뫳2ꆫ3쓪뗄ퟛ뫏벨킧폐튻뚨쳡룟,떫벨킧룄짆늢늻쿔훸ꆣ럖탐튵뗄볬퇩뷡맻뇭쏷,컒맺믺킵탐튵짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺뫳뗄닆컱벨킧튪뫃폚탅쾢튵뫍볒뗧튵뗄웳튵ꆣ맘볼듊:짏쫐릫쮾;뿧맺늢릺;닆컱벨킧훐춼럖샠뫅:F27617ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2009)12-0083-05ꆡꆡ뷼쓪살,뿧맺늢릺틑돉캪맺볊횱뷓춶뗄훷튪욽뻹쮮욽뛸퇔,놻맺췢춶헟쫕릺뗄웳튵뗄짺닺싊탎쪽ꆣ뻝솪뫏맺쎳틗랢햹캯풱믡ퟮ탂쫀뷧춶놨룦폐뷏듳럹뛈뗄쳡룟,뛸놻맺쓚춶헟쫕릺뗄웳튵퓲쿔쪾,2007쓪좫쟲뿧맺늢릺뛮듯16371틚쏀풪,햼쎻폐뛠듳룄짆짵훁폐쿂붵[3]ꆣChudnovsky뗈뛔낢떱쓪맺볊횱뷓춶뗄82%ꆣ퓚듋좫쟲뿧맺늢릺샋룹춢웳튵뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뇭쏷:폫캴놻췢맺쫕릺뗄웳튵뎱뗄췆뚯쿂,컒맺웳튵뗄뿧맺늢릺튲틑웰늽,늢죕쟷쿠뇈,놻쫕릺웳튵뗄쿺쫛뛮ꆢ샍뚯짺닺싊ꆢ돶뿚뫍맍믮풾ꆣ믹폚벼쫵톰쟳ꆢ풴톰쟳뫍쫐뎡톰쟳뗈쒿뗄풱죋쫽뗄퓶뎤뚼룼볓잿뺢[4]ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,뛔쫕릺웳뗄뿧맺늢릺틑돉캪훐맺웳튵ퟟ돶좥뗄훘튪랽쪽ꆣ뻝튵뺭펪벨킧뗄퇐뺿퓲뇭쏷,뿧맺늢릺늢캴쪹쫕릺웳솪뫏맺쎳랢믡춳볆,2005쓪훐맺웳튵뗄뿧맺늢릺릺튵뗄벨킧뗃떽쏷쿔룄짆ꆣ죧Dickerson뗈뛔펢맺웳싲뛮듯떽95틚쏀풪,2006쓪캪149틚쏀풪,2007쓪튵뿧맺늢릺뗄튻쿮퇐뺿뇭쏷:폫늢릺잰쿠뇈,늢릺웳폐쯹믘실,캪44틚쏀풪,떫쫇2008쓪폖듳럹뛈퓶튵뗄샻죳싊벸뫵쎻폐쪲쎴룄짆ꆣ폫웤쯻쓚늿퓶뎤뗄뎤,퓚2008쓪짏냫쓪틑듯떽264틚쏀풪ꆣ뫤뫤쇒쇒웳튵쿠뇈,늢릺웳튵뗄샻죳싊랴뛸쿂붵[5]ꆣRavens2뗄뿧맺쫕릺뛔훐맺웳튵뗄캢맛펰쿬죧뫎?쫇럱룄짆craft뫍Scherer뗄튻쿮짦벰쏀맺471볒릫쮾뿧맺늢쇋웳튵뗄닆컱벨킧?놾컄쓢틔2000ꆪ2007쓪쪵쪩릺뗄퇐뺿튲뇭쏷,늢릺뗄닆컱킧맻늻병[6]ꆣBild뛔뿧맺늢릺뗄훐맺짏쫐릫쮾캪퇹놾,쪵횤볬퇩컒맺웳9룶맺볒22쿮믡볆쫽뻝쯹ퟶ뗄튻쿮퇐뺿뗄ퟛ쫶뇭튵뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱벨킧ꆣ쏷:쫕릺웳튵뗄욽뻹쫕틦쮮욽늢늻쏷쿔룟폚탐튵욽뻹쮮욽[7]ꆣGugler뗈퓋폃믡볆쫽뻝뇈뷏램,붫1ꆡ컄쿗믘맋1981ꆪ1998쓪쏀맺ꆢ펢맺ꆢ얷훞듳슽ꆢ죕놾ꆢ냄듳샻맺췢톧헟뛔뿧맺늢릺뗄뺭펪벨킧뷸탐쇋듳솿뗄퇇ꆢ탂컷삼ꆢ볓쓃듳틔벰쫀뷧웤쯻맺볒랢짺뿧맺늢릺쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ듳뛠쫽퇐뺿뚼죏캪뿧맺늢릺쓜쪹쒿뇪웳뗄웳튵폫캴랢짺뿧맺늢릺뗄웳튵뷸탐뛔뇈퇐뺿ꆣ웤튵뗄뺭펪벨킧뗃떽룄짆ꆣLichtenberg횸돶쯹폐좨뷡맻쿔쪾,짏쫶룷맺웳튵퓚뿧맺늢릺뫳뗄1ꆫ5쓪뇤룼뛔놻쫕릺웳튵뗄짺닺싊닺짺쇋헽쏦펰쿬[1]ꆣ샯,샻죳뚼폐튻뚨돌뛈뗄짏짽,뛸쿺쫛쫕죫좴폐쯹쿂Baldwin퇐뺿랢쿖20쫀볍70쓪듺놻쫕릺뗄볓쓃듳붵ꆣ퓚뛔웳튵뷸튻늽쾸럖뫳,쯻쏇랢쿖킡웳튵늢릺웳튵짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤튪뿬폚쓇킩쯹폐좨쎻폐랢짺뇤뮯뫳뗄샻죳뫍쿺쫛쫕죫쿔훸퓶볓,뛸듳웳튵샻죳쿔훸뗄웳튵[2]ꆣModen퇐뺿1980ꆪ1994쓪볤죰뗤웳튵퓶볓ꆢ쿺쫛쿔훸복짙ꆣ뺿웤풭틲,쫇틲캪킡웳튵춨맽뗄늢릺랢쿖,늻싛뷸탐쫕릺뗄쫇맺쓚쫕릺헟뮹쫇맺늢릺튻뚨돌뛈짏쪵쿖쇋맦쒣뺭볃뫍랶캧뺭볃;뛸듳췢쫕릺헟,퓚쫕릺틔잰,쒿뇪웳튵뗄욽뻹샍뚯짺닺싊웳튵퓲춨맽늢릺퓶잿쇋쫐뎡쫆솦,쳡룟쇋슢뛏돌뚼뗍폚탐튵욽뻹쮮욽,뛸퓚쫕릺뫳,쿠뛔폚춬탐튵뗄뛈[8]ꆣ쫕룥죕웚:2009-09-14믹뷰쿮쒿:커몺듳톧죋컄짧믡뿆톧퇐뺿쟠쓪쿮쒿(08QNXM06);맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(70973089;70772046);맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(07CJY009)ퟷ헟볲뷩:샮쎷(1973ꆪ),얮,뫾놱뺣훝죋,커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뢱뷌쫚,맜샭톧늩쪿,퇐뺿랽쿲:뿧맺뺭펪뫍맺볊춶ꆣ83
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚12웚평폚훐맺웳튵뷏듳맦쒣뗄뛔췢늢릺횻쫇뷼벸쓪ퟛ뫏횸뇪램퇐뺿퓲틔죴룉룶짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱횸닅욵욵랢짺,틲듋,쯤좻맘폚맺쓚늢릺뗄벨킧퇐뺿틑뇪캪믹뒡,퓋폃틲ퟓ럖컶램릹붨튻룶ퟛ뫏움볛쒣탍뺭늻볆웤쫽,떫웹뷱캪횹,맺쓚뿧맺늢릺벨킧뗄쿠맘살볬퇩컒맺짏쫐릫쮾늢릺잰뫳벨킧뗄뇤뮯,벴:퇐뺿뮹늻뛠볻ꆣ샮짆쏱ꆢ췵닊욼[9]ꆢ슬컄펨[10]ꆢ맋컀Fi=ai1fi1+ai2fi2+ai3fi3+ai4fi4+ai5fi5ꆣ욽[11]뗈퇐뺿쇋맺쓚웳튵놻췢늢릺뫳뗄벨킧,짙쫽웤훐,Fi쫇뗚i룶릫쮾늢릺벨킧뗄ퟛ뫏뗃럖,aij톧헟첽쳖쇋훐맺웳튵몣췢늢릺뗄벨킧ꆣ췵잫ꆢ췵펭쫇뗚i룶릫쮾뗚j룶틲ퟓ뗄랽닮릱쿗싊,fij쫇뗚i룶뒺퓋폃훷펪튵컱샻죳싊ꆢퟜ닺샻죳싊ꆢ뺻닺샻죳릫쮾뗚j룶틲ퟓ뗄뗃럖ꆣ싊뫍훷펪쫕죫돉뎤싊4룶횸뇪뛔훐맺웳튵쓦쿲탍뿧놾컄톡좡쇋5샠릲14룶닆컱횸뇪ꆣꋙ펯샻쓜맺늢릺벨킧뷸탐쇋퇐뺿,뷡맻뇭쏷,훐맺웳튵쪵쪩쓦솦횸뇪:쎿막쫕틦ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦싊ꆢ펪튵샻죳싊ꆢퟜ쿲뿧맺늢릺뫳튵벨뫍돉뎤쓜솦듦퓚쿈쿂붵뫳짏짽뗄닺뺻샻죳싊ꆣꋚ쿖뷰쇷솿쓜솦횸뇪:쎿막뺭펪믮뚯쟷쫆[12]ꆣ돂ꆢ틥쯚ꆢ쇵샚뗄퇐뺿퓲뇭쏷,훐맺웳쿖뷰뺻쇷솿ꆣꋛ돉뎤쓜솦횸뇪:펪튵쫕죫퓶뎤싊ꆢ뺻튵뿧맺늢릺뫳듓ퟛ뫏벨킧뗃럖짏뾴뮹쫇뇈뷏돉릦샻죳퓶뎤싊ꆢퟜ닺퓶뎤싊ꆣꋜ닺맜샭쓜솦횸뇪:뗄,떫뿉쓜평폚헻뫏햽싔훆뚨짏뗄튻킩쪧컳,ퟛ뫏벨ퟜ닺훜싊ꆢ듦믵훜싊ꆢ펦쫕헊뿮훜싊ꆣꋝ뎥킧헱떴짏짽,짏짽뗄쯙뛈늻뿬[13]ꆣ뫺량ꆢ믆폱쾼틔햮쓜솦횸뇪:닺뢺햮싊ꆢ쇷뚯뇈싊ꆢ쯙뚯뇈싊ꆣ2003ꆪ2004쓪훐맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺쫂볾캪퇹놾,212ꆡ퇹놾톡퓱벰쫽뻝살풴퓋폃닆컱횸뇪램뛔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺뗄뺭펪벨놾퇐뺿뗄뿧맺늢릺퇹놾좡ퟔ2000ꆪ2007쓪36킧뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ웤뷡맻뇭쏷,ퟜ쳥짏뾴,뿧맺늢웰훐맺A막짏쫐릫쮾뗄뿧맺늢릺쫂볾,웤훐뮦쫐13릺캴쓜쿔훸쳡룟컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧[14]ꆣ웰,짮쫐23웰ꆣ헢36웰늢릺쫂볾늢늻냼삨풴샠ퟜ뗄살뾴,쒿잰맺쓚톧헟뛔훐맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺웳튵(훐쪯뮯ꆢ훐쪯폍뗈)뫍뷰죚샠웳튵(릤짌틸탐ꆢ뗄벨킧퇐뺿늻뛠,듳뛠쫽퇐뺿뗄퇹놾벯훐퓚2004쓪훐맺틸탐뗈),헢샠웳튵뗄뿧맺늢릺뛠쫴맺볒햽싔탐틔잰ꆣ뛸뷼벸쓪훐맺펿쿖쇋탭뛠훸쏻뗄뿧맺늢릺낸캪,폫튻냣웳튵뗄뛔췢늢릺듳쿠뺶춥,늻뻟뿉뇈탔ꆣ샽,죧럄횯탐튵2007쓪퇅룪뛻뛔쏀맺KELLWOOD퇹놾짦벰뗄탐튵냼삨뗧ퟓ탅쾢튵ꆢ럄횯튵ꆢ믺킵훆퓬릫쮾웬쿂쓐ힰ튵컱늿쏅탂십벯췅뗄쫕릺ꆣ틲듋,놾튵ꆢ볒뗧튵ꆢ붻춨퓋쫤튵ꆢ튽튩튵틔벰쪳욷튵,웤훐짦컄쓢틔2000ꆪ2007쓪랢짺뿧맺늢릺뗄훐맺짏쫐릫벰믺킵훆퓬튵ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢튵뫍볒뗧튵뗄폐27웰ꆣ쮾캪퇹놾,퓋폃믡볆횸뇪퇐뺿램쪵횤볬퇩훐맺웳튵짏쫐릫쮾닆컱횸뇪쫽뻝살풴폚짮?맺첩낲탅쾢뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱벨킧ꆣ벼쫵폐쿞릫쮾뾪랢뗄ꆶ훐맺짏쫐릫쮾닆컱횸뇪럖컶쫽뻝뿢(2009)ꆷꆣ놾컄쫕벯쇋퇹놾늢릺잰1쓪ꆢ늢릺2ꆡ퇐뺿랽램뫍퇹놾톡퓱떱쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳1쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳2쓪뫍늢릺뫳3쓪잰뫳릲211ꆡ퇐뺿랽램5쓪뗄닆컱쫽뻝ꆣ놾컄뷡뫏떥튻횸뇪램뫍ퟛ뫏횸뇪램럖컶컒맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱벨킧ꆣ3ꆡ쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶떥튻횸뇪램퇐뺿벴톡좡3쿮랴펳웳튵펯샻쓜솦311ꆡ믹폚떥튻횸뇪램뗄쪵횤뷡맻뗄닆컱횸뇪살뾼달훐맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱킧펦,떥튻횸뇪램뗄볬퇩뷡맻죧뇭1쯹쪾ꆣ냼삨쎿막쫕틦ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦싊뫍펪튵샻죳싊ꆣ뇭1ꆡ떥튻횸뇪램뗄쪵횤뷡맻탐튵횸뇪럖샠잰1쓪떱쓪뫳1쓪뫳2쓪뫳3쓪쎿막쫕틦0151369101391200010324780105750201001551ퟜ쳥뺻닺쫕틦싊0116445201117908-0109124901014620-01038187펪튵샻죳싊0111189001090929-01185275-0129604501001670쎿막쫕틦0148683901349564013455810140412201356132믺킵튵뺻닺쫕틦싊0113451301098300010936980111032101082020펪튵샻죳싊0109595701098973010797400107413401055748쎿막쫕틦0136649901084312-01960054-01438473-01304051탅쾢튵뺻닺쫕틦싊0112969501079302-01661995-01040060-01147053펪튵샻죳싊01071993-01016061-11238744-11484160-01089587쎿막쫕틦0159985501505886-01044703-01171705-01337822볒뗧튵뺻닺쫕틦싊0122848901172428-01089249-01144359-01180927펪튵샻죳싊011489700110635701047178-01013285-0104021584
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ샮ꆡ쎷:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱벨킧퇐뺿ꆡꆡ듓ퟜ쳥살뾴,뫍늢릺잰쿠뇈,랴펳웳튵펯샻쓜솦쿂,뻹돊횱쿟쿂붵쟷쫆,훐볤쎻폐죎뫎믘짽쟷쿲ꆣ늢뗄3룶횸뇪퓚늢릺뫳뻹돊쿂붵첬쫆,떫쫇쎿막쫕틦릺뫳뗄뗚3쓪,3쿮횸뇪뷏늢릺잰1쓪럖뇰쿂붵풼퓚늢릺뫳뗄3쓪튻횱놣돖헽횵,뛸뺻닺쫕틦싊뫍156%ꆢ179%뫍127%ꆣ펪튵샻죳싊퓚늢릺뫳뗚1쓪뾪쪼평헽뢺ꆣ듋췢,312ꆡ믹폚ퟛ뫏횸뇪램뗄쪵횤뷡맻쎿막쫕틦뫍뺻닺쫕틦싊퓚늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뚼폐쯹믘퓋폃SPSS1610,틔틲ퟓ럖컶램뛔퇹놾ퟜ쳥내뿧짽,떫퓚늢릺뫳뗚3쓪폖뾪쪼쿂붵,펪튵샻죳싊퓲퓚맺늢릺잰1쓪ꆢ늢릺떱쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳뗚1쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳뗚늢릺뫳솬탸쿂붵,떽늢릺뫳뗚3쓪닅뾪쪼횹뗸믘짽ꆣ2쓪뫍늢릺뫳뗚3쓪럖뇰뷸탐틲ퟓ럖컶,쳡좡5룶ퟜ뗄살뾴,늢릺뫳뗚3쓪뗄쎿막쫕틦ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦싊틲ퟓꆣ룹뻝틲ퟓ뗃럖뫍랽닮릱쿗싊,뗃돶5룶ퟛ뫏뫍펪튵샻죳싊3쿮횸뇪뷏늢릺잰1쓪폐듳럹뛈쿂뗃럖몯쫽ꆣ붵,럖뇰쿂붵풼99%ꆢ123%뫍98%ꆣ컒맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺잰1쓪:F-1=0126825f1+0123637f2+늢릺뫳뗄헻쳥펯샻쓜솦폐쯹쿂붵,닆컱벨킧늻죝샖0120678f3+0115207f4+0113652f5;맛ꆣ늢릺떱쓪:F0=0132852f1+0125521f2+평폚퇹놾훐짦벰믺킵훆퓬튵ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢튵뫍볒0114789f3+0113906f4+0112932f5;뗧튵뗄릲27웰,햼ퟜ퇹놾뇈훘뗄75%,틲듋놾컄뷸늢릺뫳1쓪:F1=0137576f1+0125073f2+튻늽뛔믺킵튵ꆢ탅쾢튵뫍볒뗧튵뷸탐럖샠뇈뷏ꆣ0115392f3+0112656f4+0109302f5;뻍믺킵튵퇹놾뛸퇔,쎿막쫕틦ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦싊뫍늢릺뫳2쓪:F2=0130593f1+0120014f2+펪튵샻죳싊뻹돊헰떴쿂붵쟷쫆,쎿막쫕틦뫍뺻닺0116923f3+0116573f4+0115895f5;쫕틦싊쯤좻퓚늢릺뫳뗚2쓪싔폐믘짽,떫쫇ퟮ훕늢늢릺뫳3쓪:F3=0127155f1+0124665f2+릺뫳뗚3쓪뗄3쿮횸뇪죔좻좫늿뗍폚늢릺잰1쓪,0120410f3+0115275f4+0112496f5ꆣ쎿막쫕틦쿂붵풼27%,뺻닺쫕틦싊쿂붵풼39%,f1ꆢf2ꆢf3ꆢf4뫍f5캪쳡좡뗄5룶릫틲ퟓꆣ펪튵샻죳싊쿂붵풼42%ꆣ좻뫳룹뻝짏쫶ퟛ뫏뗃럖몯쫽볆쯣퇹놾ퟜ쳥퓚뿧탅쾢튵퇹놾뗄3쿮횸뇪듓늢릺뫳뗚1쓪뾪쪼평맺늢릺잰뫳쿠펦쓪럝뗄벨킧ퟛ뫏움럖벰ퟛ뫏뗃럖닮헽뢺,쟒퓚늢릺뫳뗄3쓪튻횱놣돖뢺횵ힴ첬,늻맽횵,늢뷸탐뻹횵볬퇩ꆣ럖탐튵뗄볆쯣랽램샠쯆ꆣ볬퓚늢릺뫳뗚3쓪쿂붵쟷쫆폐쯹복뮺ꆣퟛ뫏살뾴,쎿퇩뷡맻죧뇭2쯹쪾ꆣ춼1쫇퇹놾ퟜ쳥뫍룷탐튵뗄ퟛ막쫕틦ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦싊뫍펪튵샻죳싊3쿮횸뇪퓚늢뫏뗃럖뻹횵뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆춼ꆣ릺뫳뗄뗚3쓪럖뇰뇈늢릺잰1쓪쿂붵풼183%ꆢ뇭2쿔쪾,짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺떱쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳1쓪213%뫍224%ꆣ폫늢릺잰1쓪쿠뇈,ퟛ뫏뗃럖뻹횵닮횵캪뢺,떫쫇,볒뗧튵퇹놾뗄3쿮횸뇪퓚톡좡뗄5쓪볤쎿뿶폺뇭2ꆡퟛ뫏뗃럖벰뻹횵볬퇩탐튵럖샠F닮횵F0ꆪF-1F1ꆪF0F1ꆪF-1F2ꆪF1F2ꆪF-1F3ꆪF2F3ꆪF-1N36363632323232ퟜ쳥뻹횵-01014490-010121860101129101018714001023233(-01183)(0)(-01123)(01240)(01165)(0)(01191)헽횵뇈싊01559015280161801500016330134401667N13131312121212믺킵튵뻹횵-010585990-01026732-0104544301046213001046213(-01431)(0)(-01147)(-01914)(01329)(0)(01356)헽횵뇈싊01667014620141701417015000141701667N7777777탅쾢튵뻹횵010327190-010403450000(01124)(0)(-01317)(0)(0)(0)(0)헽횵뇈싊01500015710133301571017140142901429N7777777볒뗧튵뻹횵0000000(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)헽횵뇈싊01571014290142901429015710128601571ꆡꆡ힢:F-1ꆢF0ꆢF1ꆢF2뫍F3럖뇰뇭쪾릫쮾늢릺잰1쓪ꆢ늢릺떱쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳뗚1쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뫍늢릺뫳뗚3쓪퇹놾릫쮾뗄ퟛ뫏뗃럖ꆣN쫇퇹놾솿ꆣ뻹횵쫇ퟛ뫏뗃럖닮횵뗄쯣쫵욽뻹,뻹횵뗄헽뢺뇭쪾벨킧뗄짏짽믲쿂붵,뻹횵뗄듳킡뇭쪾벨킧뇤뚯뗄쿠뛔돌뛈ꆣ삨뫅샯뗄쫽횵쫇t볬퇩횵ꆣ헽횵뇈싊쫇ퟛ뫏뗃럖닮횵캪헽뗄퇹놾릫쮾룶쫽햼좫늿퇹놾뗄뇈횵ꆣ85
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚12웚듓늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뾪쪼,ퟛ뫏뗃럖폐쯹짏짽,F2ꆪF-1뫍F3ꆪF-1뗄뻹횵럖뇰캪4ꆡ뷡싛01018714뫍01023233,뇭쏷웳튵뿧맺늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뫍뗚3쓪뗄ퟛ뫏벨킧쿠놾컄퓋폃떥튻횸뇪램뫍ퟛ뫏횸뇪램쪵횤볬퇩쇋훐뛔폚늢릺잰1쓪폐뷏듳돌뛈뗄쳡룟ꆣ헢쮵쏷컒맺웳맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺뫳뗄닆컱벨킧,뗃떽쇋솽룶믹놾뷡싛:튵쪵쪩뿧맺늢릺뫳뛌웚쓚뺭펪튵벨폐튻뚨뗄쿂붵,1)떥튻횸뇪램뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,컒맺웳튵뿧맺떫쫇퓚늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뾪쪼뗃떽룄짆ꆣ평폚뿧맺늢릺늢릺뫳뗄펯샻쓜솦폐쯹쿂붵,늢릺뫳뗚3쓪뗄쎿막짦벰쮫랽햽싔ꆢ컄뮯ꆢ죋솦풴뗈룷랽쏦뗄헻뫏,컒쫕틦ꆢ뺻닺쫕틦싊뫍펪튵샻죳싊3쿮횸뇪뷏늢릺맺웳튵웕뇩좱랦닎폫뿧맺늢릺뗄뺭퇩,틲듋뛌웚헻잰1쓪럖뇰쿂붵풼99%ꆢ123%뫍98%ꆣ럖탐튵뗄뫏킧맻튻냣늻듳샭쿫,떼훂ퟛ뫏벨킧쿠뇈늢릺잰1볬퇩뷡맻퓲뇭쏷,믺킵탐튵펯샻쓜솦뗄쿂붵럹뛈ퟮ쓪폐쯹쿂붵ꆣ떫쫇늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뫍뗚3쓪ퟛ뫏뗃럖뗍,뛸탅쾢튵뫍볒뗧튵펯샻쓜솦뗄쿂붵럹뛈뎬맽쇋뗄짏짽틢캶웳튵퓚뿧맺늢릺뫳2떽3쓪뗄헻뫏헽훰ퟜ쳥뗄쿂붵럹뛈ꆣ늽돵뻟돉킧ꆣ늻맽쯤좻늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뫍뗚3쓪폫늢2)ퟛ뫏횸뇪램뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,컒맺웳튵뿧맺릺잰1쓪뗄ퟛ뫏뗃럖닮횵뗄뻹횵뻹캪헽,폐뷏듳럹늢릺떱쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳1쓪폫늢릺잰1쓪쿠뇈,ퟛ뫏뗃럖뛈뗄쳡룟,떫뻹쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩,헢뿉쓜폫컒쏇뻹횵닮횵캪뢺,떫듓늢릺뫳뗚2쓪뾪쪼,ퟛ뫏뗃럖폐쯹톡뗄퇹놾솿첫킡폐맘쾵ꆣ쯹짏짽,F2ꆪF-1뫍F3ꆪF-1뗄뻹횵캪헽횵,헢뇭쏷컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쪵쪩뿧맺늢릺뫳쯤좻뛌웚쓚벨킧늢캴뗃떽룄짆,늻맽듓뎤웚살뾴,퓚늢릺뫳2떽3쓪볤웤벨킧폐쯹룄맛,틑쿔슶돶늢릺헻뫏뫳뗄헽킧펦ꆣ웤훐,믺킵튵뗄뿧맺늢릺벨킧튪뫃폚ퟜ쳥퇹놾벨킧,뛸탅쾢튵뫍볒뗧튵뗄벨킧퓲늻죝샖맛ꆣ떥튻횸뇪램뗃떽뗄웳튵뿧맺늢릺뫳펯샻쓜솦쿂붵뗄뷡싛폫ퟛ뫏횸뇪램뗃떽뗄ퟛ뫏벨킧폐쯹룄짆뗄뷡싛늢늻쎬뛜ꆣ놾컄퓋폃ퟛ뫏횸뇪램쪱쯹짦벰뗄닆컱횸뇪춼냼삨펯샻쓜솦횸뇪ꆢ쿖뷰쇷솿쓜솦횸뇪ꆢ돉뎤쓜솦횸1ꆡퟜ쳥뫍룷탐튵뗄ퟛ뫏뗃럖뻹횵뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆뇪ꆢ닺맜샭쓜솦횸뇪벰뎥햮쓜솦횸뇪,펯샻쓜솦횸뇪믺킵튵릫쮾뗄ퟛ뫏뗃럖쟷쫆뇤뮯폫ퟜ쳥뇈뷏샠횻쫇웤훐뗄튻룶랽쏦ꆣ헢쮵쏷컒맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺뗄훷쯆,벴늢릺떱쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳1쓪폫늢릺잰1쓪쿠뇈,ퟛ튪뚯믺퓚폚믱좡맺췢쿈뷸뗄벼쫵뫍퇐랢쓜솦틔벰뾪췘뫏뗃럖뻹횵닮횵캪뢺,떫늢릺뫳뗚2쓪ꆢ늢릺뫳뗚3맺볊쫐뎡ꆢ뇜뾪맺췢쎳틗뇚생,ힷ쟳뛌웚펯샻늻쫇뿧맺쓪폫늢릺잰1쓪쿠뇈,ퟛ뫏뗃럖폐뷏듳돌뛈뗄쳡룟,늢릺뗄쒿뗄ꆣ컒맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺뗄훷튪쒿뗄퓚폚춨맽F2ꆪF-1뫍F3ꆪF-1뗄뻹횵뻹캪01046213,헢튻쫽ꆰퟟ돶좥ꆱ엠퇸뫍퓶잿웳튵뗄맺볊뺺헹솦ꆣ뿧맺늢릺뗄횵뎬맽ퟜ쳥뛔펦뗄솽룶ퟛ뫏뗃럖닮횵,쿔쪾믺킵튵킭춬킧펦뇘탫춨맽늢릺쮫랽뗄컄뮯헻뫏ꆢ햽싔헻뫏ꆢ뗄뿧맺늢릺벨킧튪뫃폚ퟜ쳥퇹놾벨킧ꆣ닺헻뫏벰죋솦풴헻뫏뗈닅쓜쪵쿖,뛸컒맺웳튵웕뇩탅쾢튵웳튵뗄쟩뿶늻짵샭쿫ꆣ릫쮾늢릺뫳1쓪좱랦뿧맺늢릺뗄뺭퇩뫍뿧맺늢릺헻뫏뗄쓜솦,틲듋떼폫늢릺잰1쓪뗄ퟛ뫏뗃럖닮횵캪뢺,F2ꆪF-1뫍훂뿧맺늢릺뫳뗄뛌웚닆컱킧맻늻짵샭쿫ꆣ떫쫇듓뎤웚F3ꆪF-1뗄뻹횵뻹캪0,쿔쪾탅쾢튵릫쮾뺭맽2떽3뾴,웤벨킧틑훰붥폐쯹룄짆ꆣ쓪뗄헻뫏,웳튵벨킧죔캴쓜뗃떽폐킧룄짆ꆣ놾퇐뺿튻룶쏷쿔뗄뻖쿞쫇퇐뺿퇹놾쫽솿첫짙ꆣ볒뗧튵릫쮾뗄쟩뿶뇈뷏쳘쫢,쯹쇐뗄7룶릫쮾뷼벸쓪컒맺웳튵뗄뿧맺늢릺쫽솿뷏뛠,떫뛠쫇풴ퟛ뫏뗃럖닮횵뻹캪0ꆣ헢뿉쓜쫇틲캪놾컄톡좡뗄볒샠뫍뷰죚샠웳튵뗄뿧맺늢릺,헢킩뿧맺늢릺폫튻냣뗧튵뿧맺늢릺릲7샽,냼삨쟠떺몣뛻ꆢ퓁쏀뗄ꆢ낲닊웳튵뗄뿧맺늢릺폐뫜듳닮틬,틲듋놾퇐뺿붫헢킩웳룟뿆뫍TCL,웤훐TCL짦벰4웰늢릺쫂볾ꋙꆣ평폚튵폨틔쳞돽ꆣ퇹놾쫽솿뗄듳킡뇘좻믡뛔쪵횤뷡맻폐7샽뿧맺늢릺쫂볾훐폐4웰쫇TCL쯹캪,뿉쓜믡뛔튻뚨뗄펰쿬,늻맽쯦ퟅ캴살컒맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺퇹놾볬퇩뷡맻퓬돉튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ뗄퓶볓,뇘좻믡뗃떽룼폐킧ꆢ룼폐틢틥뗄뷡싛ꆣꋙꆡTCL퓚퇐뺿웚볤(2000ꆪ2007쓪)랢짺맽5듎늢릺,냼삨2002쓪늢릺뗂맺쪩쓍뗂ꆢ2003쓪늢릺쏀맺DVD능럅믺훆퓬짌Govedio릫쮾뫍쳀쒷톷닊뗧벰DVD튵컱ꆢ2004쓪늢릺램맺낢뛻뾨쳘뗄쫖믺튵컱벰2005쓪믘쫕폫낢뛻뾨쳘뗄뫏릫쮾45%뗄막좨ꆣ놾컄붫웤2003쓪뗄솽듎늢릺횻볇ퟷ튻웰늢릺쫂볾,틲듋놾퇐뺿훐TCL릲냼삨4웰뿧맺늢릺쫂볾ꆣ86
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ샮ꆡ쎷:컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺뗄닆컱벨킧퇐뺿닎뾼컄쿗[7]ꆡBILDM1Valuationoftakeovers[C].StockholmSchoolofEconomics,ElanderGotalo,Stockholm,19981[8]ꆡGUGLERK,MUELLERDC,YURTOGLUBB1The[1]ꆡLICHTENBERGFR1CorporateTakeoversandProduc2etivity[Mffectsofmergers:aninternationalcomparison[J].Inter2].Cambridge:MITPress,19921[2]ꆡBALDWINJR1TheDynamicsofIndustrialComnationalJournalofIndustrialOrganization,2003(5):6252petition[M6531].Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,19951[3]ꆡMOD[9]ꆡ샮짆쏱,췵닊욼1룱쇖뿂뛻쫕릺뿆쇺뗧웷럖컶[J].뺭볃샭ENK1ForeignacquisitionsofSwedishcompanies:싛폫뺭볃맜샭,2003(11):562601effectsonR&Dandproductivity[C].Stockholm:Re2[10]ꆡ슬컄펨1췢늢릺닟싔[M].짏몣:짏몣닆뺭듳톧돶냦searchInstituteofIndustrialEconomics,mimeo119981짧,20041[4]ꆡCHUDNOVSKYD,LopezA1TheimpactofM&AsinA[11]ꆡ맋컀욽1췢늢릺짏쫐릫쮾뗄쪵횤킧펦뫍쟷쫆럖컶[J].rgentinain1990s[C].Geneva:UNCTAD,mimeo120001[5]ꆡDICKERSONAP,GIBSONHD1TheIm짏몣맺,2004(5):392421pactofAcquisi2[12]ꆡ췵잫,췵펭뒺1훐맺웳튵쓦쿲탍뿧맺늢릺벨킧움볛[J].tionsonCompanyPerformance:EvidencefromaLarge닆믡춨톶,2006(4):8291PanelofUKFirms[J].OxfordEconomicPapers,1997,3:[13]ꆡ돂,틥쯚,쇵샚1훐맺웳튵뿧맺늢릺벨킧뗄쪵횤럖컶34423611[J].뺭볃싛첳,2007(17):62264[6]ꆡRAVENSCRAFTDR,SCHERERFM1Mergers,sell2[14]ꆡ뫺량,믆폱쾼1컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뿧맺늢릺뗄뺭펪벨킧럖컶offs,andeconomicefficiency[C].BrookingsInstitution,W[J].뫚쇺붭뛔췢뺭쎳,2008(9):1362137ashingtonDC,19871EmpiricalStudyonFinancialPerformanceofChineseListedCompaniesinCross2borderM&ALiMei(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan430072,China)Abstract:Taking36cross2borderacquisitionsundertakenbyChineselistedcompaniesduring2000-2007astheexamples,thispaperexaminesthefinancialperformancewiththesingleindexmethodandthecomprehensiveindexmodel1Theresultbasedonthesingleindexmethodshowsthattheprofit2makingcapabilityofChineselistedcompanieshaveslideddown1Theresultbasedonthecomprehensiveindexmodelrevealsthat,thefinancialperformanceofChineselistedcompanieshasbeenimprovedinsignificantlyinthesecondandthirdyearaftertheacquisitionthoughithasnotbeenimprovedinashorttime1Italsofindsthatthefinancialperformanceoflistedcompaniesinmechanicalindustryafterthecross2borderM&Aisbetterthanthatoflistedcompaniesininformationindustryandhouseholdelectricalappliancesindustry1Keywords:listedcompany;cross2borderM&A;financialperformance(짏뷓뗚32튳)FactorsAnalysisandEmpiricalStudyonNurturingCreativeManagementTalentsSunRui,WanWenhai(CollegeofBusinessAdministration,HuaqiaoUniversity,QuanzhouFujian362021,China)Abstract:Throughcardingexistingopinions,universalperceptionsandsuggestionsaboutnurturingthecreativeabilitiesofmanagementtypecollegestudents,thispaperanalyzestheimpactsofteachingmethods,teachingcontents,socialpractices,extracurricularactivities,hardwarere2quirementsandgraduationthesisonthecreativeabilitiesofcollegestudents,andputsforwardsomehypothesis1Throughdesigningquestionnaireandinvestigating,itvalidatesthesehypothesesbySEM1Inordertoguaranteethereliabilityandthevalidity,ittakesavarietyofwaystochecktheconsistency,andstudiesempiricallythepathandthekeyfactorsinfluencingthenurtureofcreativeabilitiesofcollegestudents,:managementtypecollegestudent;nurtureofcreativeability;empiricalstudy;SEM87
