2004쓪뗚5웚헣ꆡ붭ꆡ짧ꆡ믡ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧2004쓪9퓂,2004ZHEJIANGꆡSOCIALꆡSCIENCESSep.,2004쫐뎡쪵퇩폫횤좯붻틗훆뛈짨볆ꇵꆡ뷰톩뻼ꆡ퇮쿾삼ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡ쪵퇩뺭볃톧랽램쫇폃쪵퇩살볬퇩뺭볃샭싛늢랢쿖탂샭싛뗄뺭볃톧랽램ꆣ퓚횤좯쫐뎡붻틗훆뛈퇐뺿훐펦폃쪵퇩랽램뻟놸쇋뿉뿘훆탔폫뿉훘뢴탔뗄폅쫆ꆣ쒿잰쪵퇩퇐뺿틑뺭짦벰떽횤좯붻틗훆뛈뗄뛠룶랽쏦ꆣ퇐뺿헟춨맽쪵퇩랽램볬퇩쇋룷쿮훆뛈낲업뛔횤좯쫐뎡닺짺뗄킧펦,냼삨볛룱탎돉랽쪽ꆢ탅쾢엻슶훆뛈ꆢ볛룱볠뿘훆뛈ꆢ붻틗횧뢶믺훆ꆢ웚좨붻틗훆뛈뗈ꆣ놾컄듓랽램뫍쓚죝솽룶랽쏦뷩짜쇋쪵퇩릤뻟펦폃폚횤좯붻틗훆뛈쇬폲뗄퇐뺿돉맻,늢첽쳖쇋쪵퇩랽램듦퓚뗄폅쫆폫뻖쿞탔ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ쪵퇩뺭볃톧ꆡ횤좯쫐뎡ꆡ붻틗훆뛈ퟷ헟뷰톩뻼,쓐,1958쓪짺,헣붭듳톧뺭볃톧풺뢱풺뎤ꆢ뷌쫚ꆢ늩쪿짺떼쪦;퇮쿾삼,얮,1978쓪짺,헣붭듳톧뺭볃톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣ(몼훝ꆡ310027)튻ꆢ틽퇔쫶훐횸돶,춶헟뗄붻틗탐캪쫇쯦ퟅ룷훖훆뛈뫍탅쾢뗄뇤뮯뛸뷸탐뗷헻뗄,헢뻍떼훂퇐뺿헟컞램횤좯쫐뎡붻틗훆뛈쫇횸횤좯쫐뎡믣ퟜ닎폫붻맀볆쒳룶훆뛈믲헟맦퓲쯹쓜닺짺뗄킧펦;듋췢,쪵틗폐맘룷랽뗄횸쇮틔탎돉쫐뎡볛룱뗄맦퓲,웤쪵횤퇐뺿튲쫜떽좱랦듳솿쫂볾퇹놾뗄쿞훆ꆣ퓚헢훖훊쫇횤좯쫐뎡뗄볛룱탎돉믺훆ꆣ퓚뒫춳뷰죚샭싛쟩뿶쿂,쪵퇩뺭볃톧퇐뺿랽램놻틽죫룃쇬폲ꆣ뗄뿲볜쓚,횤좯쫐뎡쫇튻룶췪짆뗄ꆢ컞쒦닁뗄ꆢ탅쪵퇩뺭볃톧랽램쫇폃쪵퇩퇐뺿살볬퇩뺭볃샭쾢췪좫뛔돆뗄쫐뎡,틲듋쫐뎡붻틗훆뛈컞ퟣ쟡훘,싛늢랢쿖탂샭싛뗄뺭볃톧랽램,쯼춻웆쇋훷쇷뺭늻믡뛔볛룱탐캪닺짺죎뫎펰쿬ꆣ좻뛸헦쪵쫀뷧좴볃톧뗄럖컶뿲볜,춨맽퓚뿉뿘훆탔뗄쪵퇩뮷뺳쿂폐폚뒫춳샭싛뗄볙짨,쿖쪵뗄횤좯쫐뎡쫇늻췪퇐뺿죋샠탐캪살쫕벯쪵퇩쫽뻝,뛔뺭볃샭싛뗄폐좫뗄ꆢ탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄,듦퓚ퟅ붻틗돉놾뫍쒦닁ꆣ뛔킧탔뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ퓚횤좯쫐뎡뗄쪵퇩퇐뺿훐,퇐뺿붻틗훆뛈뗄퇐뺿헽쫇믹폚쿖쪵뗄튪쟳,뷒뾪횤좯헟뿉틔내헕퇐뺿쒿뗄뿘훆쫐뎡뗄탅쾢엻슶훆뛈ꆢ볛룱탎돉뗄뫚쿤,첽톰쪵쿖횤좯쫐뎡붡뾵퓋탐뗄엄싴훆뛈ꆢ볛룱볠뿘훆뛈뗈,뷸뛸볬퇩쒳쿮훆뛈낲훆뛈낲업ꆣ업뗄킧펦쫇럱폫샭싛풤닢놣돖튻훂,늢뿉틔춨맽뷼20쓪틔살,뛔횤좯붻틗훆뛈뗄퇐뺿좡뗃쇋훘뢴쪵퇩살믱좡룼캪뿉탅뗄쫽뻝ꆣퟔ20쫀볍80럡쮶뗄돉맻,늢틔듋캪뫋탄훰늽탎돉쇋틔ꆰ횤좯쫐쓪듺틔살,쪵퇩퇐뺿돉맻캪횤좯붻틗훆뛈뗄퇐뺿뎡캢맛뷡릹ꆱ캪쏻돆뗄샭싛쳥쾵ꆣ퓚횤좯붻틗훆뾪뇙쇋탂뗄쫓뷇,캪횤좯볛룱탐캪쳡릩쇋럡뢻뗄뛈뗄퇐뺿훐,샭싛쒣탍뗄릹붨폫쿠맘뗄쪵횤볬퇩뷢쫍ꆣ뻹랢믓쇋훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쫇쪵횤볬퇩쪼훕쏦쇙튻놾컄붫쳖싛쪵퇩릤뻟퓚횤좯붻틗훆뛈퇐뺿훐룶헏낭,쓇뻍쫇좱랦룟훊솿뗄쫽뻝살볬퇩퇐뺿헟뗄펦폃,뷡릹죧쿂:뗚튻늿럖뷩짜쪵퇩짨볆뗄믹놾쳡돶뗄샭싛볙짨ꆣ헽죧Madhavan(2000)퓚튻욪ퟛ랽램,뗚뛾늿럖ퟜ뷡쿖폐뗄쪵퇩퇐뺿쓚죝벰웤뷡204
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2004쓪뗚5웚ꆡ맻,뗚죽늿럖ퟜ뷡쪵퇩랽램뗄폅쫆폫뻖쿞탔ꆣ죋ꆣ쳡릩헦쪵뗄놨돪벤샸쫇틽랢닎폫죋욫뫃뗄맘뛾ꆢ쪵퇩짨볆뗄믹놾랽램볼튪쯘횮튻ꆣ5.럖뫬뗄쫽솿틔벰럖뫬횧뢶뗄랽쪽평퇐뺿헟Roth(2001)횸돶,쒿잰뫆죧퇌몣뗄쪵퇩뺭볃살뻶뚨ꆣ뇈뷏뎣볻뗄ퟶ램쫇퓚쪵퇩뾪쪼틔잰평퇐톧컄쿗뚼뿉틔짏쯝떽짏쫀볍30쓪듺떽60쓪듺볤뺿헟맦뚨뫬샻뿉쓜뗄럖늼쟩뿶,듓뛸뒴퓬돶늻좷뗄죽막쮼뎱,벴쫐뎡쪵퇩ꆢ룶죋뻶닟쪵퇩틔벰늩?뚨뗄캴살쫕틦쇷,헢튻뗣폫헦쪵뗄막욱쫇쿠쯆뗄ꆣ싛쪵퇩ꆣ퓚쪵퇩뺭볃톧뗄럖샠훐,횤좯쫐뎡쪵퇩죧Porter,Smith(2000)뗄쪵퇩훐짨뚨쇋15룶붻틗쫴폚쫐뎡쪵퇩뗄쓚죝횮튻ꆣ횤좯쫐뎡쪵퇩쫇퓚쪵뷗뛎,쎿룶붻틗뷗뛎뫬샻뗄럖늼쟩뿶쫇25%뗄룅퇩쫒훐릹퓬튻룶횤좯붻틗뗄뮷뺳,쪵퇩닎폫죋ퟷ싊늻럖뫬ꆢ25%럖8쏀럖ꆢ25%럖28쏀럖ꆢ25%럖캪횤좯춶헟뷸탐싲죫믲헟싴돶횤좯뗄뻶닟,쎿60쏀럖ꆣ뻝듋,춶헟뿉틔볆쯣돶쎿룶뷗뛎뗄웚룶붻틗뷗뛎뷡쫸쪱춶헟쯹돖폐뗄횤좯뿉틔믱뗃췻뫬샻쫇24쏀럖ꆣ평폚믹뒡볛횵쫇캴살쫕틦쇷럖뫬ꆣ헢훖퇐뺿랽램쫇Forsythe뗈(1982)쫗뒴,볌뗄쳹쿖,룹뻝뫬샻뗄럖늼쟩뿶춶헟뮹뿉틔뗃돶뛸놻Plott,Sunder(1982),Friedman뗈(1984)뷸튻늽믹뒡볛횵쫇튻쳵쯦붻틗뷗뛎뗝복뗄킱쿟ꆣ쎿룶붻랢햹뗄ꆣ쒿잰틑폐뗄퇐뺿훐,쪵퇩짨볆뗄믹놾뿲틗뷗뛎헦쪵뗄뫬샻쫇뛠짙튻냣쫇쯦믺뻶뚨뗄,샽볜쫇쿠쯆뗄,훷튪냼삨틔쿂벸룶튪뗣:죧닉폃훀ퟓ뗄랽쪽,믲헟평볆쯣믺쯦믺뻶뚨ꆣ1.쎿듎쪵퇩뗄닎폫죋튻냣퓚5ꆢ6죋훁20죋6.붻틗맽돌춨맽뿚춷믲헟볆쯣믺뮯뗄엄싴랽횮볤ꆣ뇈뷏쳘뇰뗄쫇Williams(2003)놨룦쇋튻룶쪽살쪵쿖ꆣ퓚쪵퇩뺭볃톧랢햹뗄돵웚,훷튪닉폃뾪럅쪽뗄횤좯쫐뎡쪵퇩,폐300뛠죋닎볓ꆣ퓚쿖뿚춷엄싴뗄랽쪽살뷸탐쪵퇩훐뗄쫐뎡붻틗ꆣ쒿잰폐컄쿗훐쪵퇩닎폫죋훷튪쫇듳톧샯뗄놾뿆짺ꆢ퇐뫜뛠쪵퇩퇐뺿쫒뚼뾪랢쇋쿠맘뗄붻틗죭볾뫍닙ퟷ뺿짺ꆣ쪵퇩뺭볃톧뗄엺움헟퓸뛔듋쳡돶틉틥,죏욽첨,닎폫죋춨맽닙ퟷ솪췸뗄볆쯣믺살쪵쿖헻룶캪톧짺풶늻죧헦쪵쫐뎡춶헟쓇퇹뢻폐뺭퇩ꆣ캪붻틗맽돌,샽죧Lei,Noussair뫍Plott(2002)뗄퇐뺿듋,틑뺭폐튻킩쪵퇩듓헦쪵쫐뎡훐헐쒼닎폫쪵퇩닉폃쇋볓샻뢣쓡퇇샭릤톧풺뾪랢뗄MUDA쫐뎡쪵뗄탐캪뻶닟헟,샽죧Dyer뗈(1989),Smith(1988),퇩죭볾ꆣMestelman,Feeny(1988)ꆣ쯻쏇뗃돶뗄뷡싛쫇헢킩퓚횤좯붻틗훆뛈쪵퇩퇐뺿훐,돽짏쫶믹놾튪닎폫죋뗄뻶닟폫톧짺ퟷ돶뗄뻶닟쿠뇈늢늻듦퓚쿔뗣췢,퇐뺿헟붫룹뻝웤퇐뺿쒿뗄살짨훃웤쯻뗄쪵훸뗄닮틬탔,뛸뫳헟ퟷ캪쪵퇩뛔쿳뗄럑폃췹췹풶퇩쳵볾,튲뻍쫇내헕횤좯붻틗훆뛈뗄샭싛볙짨,퓚풶뗍폚잰헟ꆣFlood뗈(2002)튲톡좡쇋횰튵횤좯ꆰ웤쯻쳵볾췪좫쿠춬(ceterisparibus)ꆱ뗄쪵퇩뮷뺳붻틗헟살닎볓쪵퇩ꆣ훐,틽죫늻춬뗄훆뛈낲업,춨맽쪵퇩뷡맻뗄뇈뷏,2.횤좯붻틗퓚폐쿞뗄붻틗뷗뛎쓚뷸탐(뗤탍에뛏쒳쿮훆뛈낲업뛔쫐뎡킧싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ샽죧,뗄쫇10룶믲헟15룶붻틗뷗뛎),쎿룶붻틗뷗뛎돖Hicks(1939),Danthine(1978)뫍Grossman(1977)뗄탸5럖훓ퟳ폒ꆣWilliams(2003)뗄뾪럅쪽횤좯쫐샭싛퇐뺿뻹죏캪틽죫웚좨붻틗뿉틔쳡룟횤좯쫐뎡뎡쪵퇩퓲돖탸쇋8룶탇웚ꆣ뗄킧싊ꆣ3.붻틗돵쪼쎿룶춶헟놻뢳폨튻뚨쫽솿뗄횤좯뫍쿖뷰,횤좯뫍쿖뷰뚼쫇헋쏦뗄ꆣ듳늿럖쪵퇩죽ꆢ쪵퇩퇐뺿쓚죝벰웤뷡맻횻짨뚨쇋튻훖횤좯,폐뗄쪵퇩짨뚨쇋솽훖믲헟룼횤좯붻틗훆뛈뗄뫋탄릦쓜쫇붫춶헟뗄잱퓚뛠늻춬훖샠뗄횤좯,죧Fisher(1998)뗄쪵퇩폐솽훖릩쟳뮻돉쿖쪵뗄붻틗ꆣ틲듋,횤좯붻틗훆뛈쫇횤좯ꆣ캧죆볛룱탎돉뗄튻쾵쇐맦퓲ꆣ헢킩훆뛈짦벰떽춶4.쪵퇩닎폫죋뗄쫕틦튻냣살풴폚솽랽쏦:튻헟횸쇮뗄뒫뗝ꆢ횸쇮뗄횴탐틔벰붻룮쟥쯣뗈맽쫇싲싴횤좯믱뗃뗄볛룱닮쫕틦,뛾쫇돖폐횤좯뿉돌ꆣ퓚쪵퇩벼쫵듯떽튻뚨튪쟳뗄잰쳡쿂,룷쿮훆틔믱뗃럖뫬ꆣ퓚쪵퇩뷡쫸틔뫳,닎폫죋튪춳볆쯻뛈낲업쯹닺짺뗄쫐뎡킧펦뚼뿉틔돉캪쪵퇩퇐뺿뗄쏇믱뗃뗄ퟜ쫕틦ꆣ퇐뺿헟내헕튻뚨뗄뇈샽,붫ퟜ쓚죝ꆣ쫕틦헛쯣돉쿖뷰믲헟웤쯻탎쪽뗄놨돪횧뢶룸닎폫튻냣살쮵,횤좯쫐뎡붻틗훆뛈뗄짨볆냼삨쇋볛205
뷰톩뻼ꆢ퇮쿾삼:쫐뎡쪵퇩폫횤좯붻틗훆뛈짨볆룱탎돉랽쪽ꆢ뚨떥탎쪽ꆢ붻틗샫즢릹볾ꆢ볛룱볠뿘믺돉랽쪽:벯뫏뺺볛ꆢ솬탸뺺볛뫍ퟶ쫐짌ꆣ퓚벯뫏뺺훆ꆢ붻틗탅쾢엻슶ꆢ붻틗횧뢶믺훆뗈랽쏦뗄쓚죝ꆣ볛쪵퇩훐,닎폫죋횱뷓쳡돶놨볛뫍튪볛,평볆쯣믺쒿잰,쪵퇩컄쿗훷튪돶쿖퓚볛룱탎돉랽쪽뫍붻틗탅살듩뫏튪볛폫놨볛,늢뗃돶쫐뎡돶쟥뗄돉붻볛룱ꆣ쾢엻슶헢솽룶랽쏦,뛔볛룱볠뿘믺훆ꆢ붻틗횧뢶믺솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡닉폃쇋쮫쿲엄싴믺훆,닎폫죋횱뷓훆틔벰웚좨붻틗훆뛈뗈튲뷸탐쇋돵늽뗄첽쯷ꆣ놨볛ꆢ튪볛,떱놨볛뗈폚튪볛쪱쮫랽돉붻,붻틗맽(튻)볛룱탎돉랽쪽돌훐펦폃쇋볛룱뫍쪱볤폅쿈뗄풭퓲ꆣ퓚ퟶ쫐짌쫐볛룱탎돉랽쪽쫇횤좯쫐뎡뗄붻틗쒣쪽,춨뎣뎡훐,쎿듎쪵퇩폐3쏻닎폫죋쯦믺뗘놻톡캪ퟶ쫐쟩뿶쿂뿉틔듓쪱볤뷇뛈럖캪솬탸탔쒣쪽뫍볤뛏탔짌,횻폐ퟶ쫐짌쓜릻쳡돶놨볛,웤쯻닎폫죋횻쓜톡쒣쪽,듓붻틗훐뷩뗄ퟷ폃럖캪뚩떥쟽뚯쒣쪽뫍놨퓱뷓쫜믲헟뻜뻸ퟶ쫐짌뗄놨볛ꆣ쯹폐쪵퇩뚼쫇닎볛쟽뚯쒣쪽ꆣ내헕헢솽훖뮮럖랽램,횤좯붻틗쒣폫죋춨맽볆쯣믺닙ퟷ살췪돉,쎿듎쪵퇩냼삨15룶쪽뿉틔럖캪쯄훖샠탍(죧뇭1쯹쪾),벴솬탸뺺볛붻틗뷗뛎,룷평12쏻닎폫죋닎볓ꆣ돽쇋볛룱탎돉쫐뎡ꆢ벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡ꆢ솬탸ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡뫍벯뫏ퟶ쫐랽쪽뗄닮틬틔췢,쯹폐쪵퇩뗄붻틗뮷뺳뚼쫇쿠쯆짌쫐뎡ꆣ잰죽훖붻틗쒣쪽퓚쫀뷧룷맺뗄붻틗쯹뻹뗄,틲듋쪵퇩뷡맻뗄닮틬뿉틔훷튪맩뷡캪볛룱탎뗃떽쇋맣랺뗄퓋폃,뛸벯뫏ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡퓚쿖쪵훐돉랽쪽뗄늻춬ꆣ뛔쪵퇩뷡맻뗄쫽솿럖컶쿔쪾쇋볛늢늻듦퓚,틲듋ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡췹췹횸뗄뻍쫇솬탸ퟶ룱탎돉랽쪽뛔쫐뎡킧싊뗄펰쿬,뗃돶뗄훷튪뷡싛쫐짌쫐뎡ꆣ뛔잰죽훖붻틗쒣쪽뗄뇈뷏튻횱쫇쫐뎡쫇:벯뫏뺺볛폫솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄붻틗볛룱뇈ퟶ캢맛뷡릹샭싛퇐뺿뗄붹뗣ꆣ돽쇋퓚싲싴볛닮컊쳢쫐짌쫐뎡룼캪폐킧,횴탐돉놾튲뗍폚ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡,짏떫ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡뗄돉붻솿풶풶룟폚벯뫏뺺볛폫솬탸,퇐뺿헟웕뇩죏캪ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡뗄볛닮듳폚뺺볛쫐뎡틔췢,퓚쇷뚯탔ꆢ늨뚯탔ꆢ폐킧탔뗈랽쏦,샭싛뺺볛쫐뎡,죧벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뗄욽뻹붻틗솿캪665.폫쪵횤퇐뺿짏뗄럖웧죔좻뫜듳(쇵,20019,솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡캪,ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡캪ꆣ),GTheissen폐맘죽훖붻틗쒣쪽쫐뎡킧싊뗄쪵퇩뷡맻reen,Murinde뫍Ngugi(2000)뛔쿖폐퇐뺿돉맻뗄럖웧뷸탐쇋ퟜ뷡뫍럖컶ꆣ폫Kyle(1985)뗄샭싛쒣탍틔벰Amihud뗈(1997)뗄뇭쪵횤뷡맻쫇믹놾튻훂뗄ꆣ1ꆡ횤좯쫐뎡볛룱탎돉랽쪽(뛾)탅쾢엻슶훆뛈솬탸탔쫐뎡볤뛏탔쫐뎡붻틗탅쾢엻슶뛔횤좯볛룱뗄탎돉폐ퟅ맘볼탔뚩떥쟽뚯솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ평폚헦쪵쫐뎡훐춶헟뗄탅쾢살풴쟾뗀놨볛쟽뚯솬탸ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡벯뫏ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡쫇늻뿉쓜췪좫놻퇐뺿헟쯹횪쿾뗄,틲듋탅쾢엻슶폫볛룱횮볤뗄맘쾵쫇컞램횱뷓맛달떽뗄ꆣ퓚쪵퇩쫒훐탅쾢뷡릹퓲췪좫뒦폚퇐뺿헟뗄뿘훆쿂ꆣ헽쫇믹20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,퇐뺿헟뾪쪼샻폃쪵퇩폚뿘훆탔뗄폅쫆,탅쾢엻슶훆뛈틑뺭돉캪쪵퇩퇐뺿랽램살볬퇩샭싛쒣탍,틔쏖늹쪵횤퇐뺿듦퓚뗄퇹뗄튻룶훘튪훷쳢ꆣ퓚쪵퇩퇐뺿훐,쪵퇩헟맘힢폚쫂놾늻ퟣ틔벰컞램뛔쫐뎡탅쾢킧싊뷸탐횱뷓맛달뗈잰탅쾢(pre-tradeinformation)틔벰쫂뫳탅쾢(post-컊쳢ꆣFriedman(1993a)뗄쪵퇩퇐뺿랢쿖폫벯뫏뺺tradeinformation)엻슶뛔쫐뎡킧싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ볛쫐뎡쿠뇈,솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄엤훃킧싊뷏룟,떫쫐Bloomfield뫍Hara(1999)뗄퇐뺿훐짨훃쇋죽훖뎡짮뛈뷏뗍,떫헢솽룶쫐뎡뗄탅쾢폐킧탔쫇쿠쯆늻춬탅쾢뷡릹뗄쫐뎡,붻틗탅쾢뗄릫뾪돌뛈폃춸쏷뗄ꆣFriedman(1993b)뮹뷸튻늽뇈뷏쇋솬탸뺺볛쫐뛈살뫢솿ꆣ죽룶쫐뎡훐ퟶ쫐짌뫍춶헟헆컕뗄탅뎡폫ퟶ쫐짌쫐뎡,쯻뗄뷡싛쫇뫳헟퓚킧싊뫍짮뛈쾢쟩뿶죧뇭2쯹쪾,헢킩탅쾢냼삨폐맘붻틗뗄쫂뫳짏뚼뗍폚잰헟ꆣ탅쾢뫍폐맘ퟶ쫐짌놨볛뗄쫂잰탅쾢ꆣ춨맽쪵퇩,쯻뷼웚뗄튻룶퇐뺿살ퟔTheissen(2000),쯻퓋폃쏇뾼달쇋늻춬뗄쫐뎡춸쏷뛈뛔쫐뎡킧싊틔벰춶쪵퇩랽램뇈뷏쇋늻춬뗄볛룱탎돉랽쪽뛔탅쾢폐킧헟뫍ퟶ쫐짌뢣샻뗄펰쿬ꆣ쪵퇩뗃돶뗄뷡싛쫇:붻틗탔뫍쫐뎡쇷뚯탔뗄펰쿬ꆣ쯻붫18듎쫐뎡쪵퇩럖탅쾢뗄엻슶뛔쫐뎡탅쾢폐킧탔폐쿔훸뗄펰쿬;붻틗캪6룶탲쇐,쎿룶탲쇐냼삨쇋죽훖늻춬뗄볛룱탎탅쾢뗄엻슶믡삩듳싲싴볛닮;붻틗탅쾢뗄엻슶폐샻206
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2004쓪뗚5웚ꆡ폚퓶볓ퟶ쫐짌뗄뢣샻,좴늻샻폚춶헟;놨볛탅쾢샻뚼믹놾쎻폐펰쿬ꆣ듓ퟜ쳥짏뛸퇔,춸쏷뛈룟뗄쫐뗄엻슶뛔쫐뎡탅쾢폐킧탔ꆢ싲싴볛닮틔벰춶헟뢣뎡탅쾢폐킧탔룟폚춸쏷뛈뗍뗄쫐뎡ꆣ뇭2ꆡBloomfield뫍Hara(1999)뗄쪵퇩뮷뺳쪵퇩뮷뺳늻춸쏷뗄쫐뎡냫춸쏷뗄쫐뎡췪좫춸쏷뗄쫐뎡ퟶ쫐짌ퟶ쫐짌뇋듋늻횪뗀쯻쏇뗄놨ퟶ쫐짌뇋듋횪뗀쯻쏇뗄놨ퟶ쫐짌뇋듋횪뗀쯻쏇뗄놨볛믲헟붻틗;볛,떫늻횪뗀쯻쏇뗄붻틗볛,떫늻횪뗀쯻쏇뗄붻틗춶헟춶헟횪뗀ퟶ쫐짌뗄놨볛,춶헟횪뗀ퟶ쫐짌뗄놨볛,춶헟횪뗀ퟶ쫐짌뗄놨볛뫍떫늻횪뗀쯻쏇뗄붻틗떫늻횪뗀쯻쏇뗄붻틗붻틗ꆡꆡ폫웤쯻톡좡톧짺ퟷ캪닎폫죋뗄쪵퇩늻춬,ퟮ듳놨볛떥캻뗈ꆣ헢킩훆뛈쫇럱헦뗄쓜릻웰떽컈Flood뗈(2002)톡좡쇋횰튵횤좯붻틗헟살닎폫쪵뚨쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃쓘?샭싛뷧튻횱듦퓚솽훖쿠뛔솢뗄퇩ꆣ쯻쏇릹퓬쇋튻룶듦퓚탅쾢쓚쒻죋뗄뛠ퟶ쫐짌맛뗣,뗚튻훖돆캪ꆰ샤좴볙쮵(cooling-offhypothe2쫐뎡뮷뺳ꆣ쎿듎쪵퇩뚼폐5쏻횰튵횤좯붻틗헟돤sis)ꆱ,죏캪볛룱쿞훆훆뛈쓜릻복짙맽뛈랴펦,틲캪떱쫐뎡뗄ퟶ쫐짌ꆣ퓚쎿룶붻틗뷗뛎훐,폐튻룶ퟶ쯼쳡릩쇋튻룶쪹붻틗헟훘탂움볛쫐뎡탅쾢뗄샤좴쫐짌횪뗀횤좯뗄헦쪵볛횵ꆣFlood뗈춨맽짨훃늻뷗뛎,믡듸살룼샭탔뗄뻶닟;뗚뛾훖맛뗣돆캪ꆰ듅춬뗄쫂잰뫍쫂뫳탅쾢뗄춸쏷뛈,뾼달탅쾢엻슶뛔쳺볙쮵(magnethypothesis)ꆱ,룃맛뗣죏캪볛룱쿞훆쫐뎡닺짺뗄킧펦ꆣ쪵퇩뷡맻쫇,볛룱뗄폐킧탔쯦훆뛈믡떼훂쫐뎡뗄맽뛈랴펦,틲캪떱볛룱뷓뷼놻ퟅ쫂잰춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟뛸붵뗍,쯦ퟅ쫂뫳춸쏷뛈뗄쿞훆뗄쮮욽쪱,붻틗헟뿉쓜믡듳솿랢돶놨볛뚩떥,쳡룟뛸쳡룟;폃싲싴볛닮살뫢솿뗄쫐뎡쇷뚯탔쯦뛸늢늻뾼싇헢킩뚩떥쫇럱럻뫏ퟮ듳뮯뗄붻틗햽ퟅ쫂잰춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟뛸쳡룟,쯦ퟅ쫂뫳춸쏷뛈뗄싔ꆣ쳡룟뛸붵뗍ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵쫂잰춸쏷뛈폐훺폚볛룱뗄Brennan(1986)뗄샭싛퇐뺿횧돖쇋뗚튻훖맛폐킧탔,좴늻샻폚쫐뎡쇷뚯탔,쫂뫳춸쏷뛈퓲폫횮뗣ꆣ쯻죏캪쎿죕볛룱쿞훆훆뛈뗄펦폃쓜릻룸쫐뎡쿠랴ꆣ닎폫죋쪩볓튻룶쏷쿔뗄돉놾,ퟨ횹쯻쏇틔뎬맽볛Marco(2002)퇐뺿쇋쪵퇩횤좯쫐뎡훐닆컱탅룱쿞훆뗄쮮욽뷸탐붻틗ꆣSubrahmanyam(1994)릹쾢뗄엻슶킧펦ꆣ쪵퇩뷡맻뇭쏷,짏쫐릫쮾닆컱탅퓬쇋튻룶샭싛쒣탍,쯻횸돶뛏슷웷뫜뿉쓜퓶볓볛쾢춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟튻랽쏦쓜릻퓶볓쫐뎡탅쾢뗄폐킧룱뗄늨뚯탔,늢쟒믡쳡룟볛룱듯떽뛏슷쮮욽뗄뿉탔,쇭튻랽쏦좴듸살쇋쫐뎡볛룱뗄늨뚯탔ꆣ쪵퇩쓜탔,벴뛏슷뗄뇟뷧믡뛔쫐뎡볛룱닺짺튻훖컼틽쫽뻝쿔쪾춸쏷뛈듸살쇋춶헟킧폃뗄퓶볓,틲듋솦,헢뻍쫇듅쳺볙쮵뗄맛뗣ꆣ쯻쏇욫뫃폚좷뚨탔룼룟뗄횤좯ꆣMarco룹뻝쪵퇩평폚퓚쏀맺막욱쫐뎡짏늻듦퓚볛룱쿞훆훆뷡맻췆닢쒿잰룷맺횤좯볠맜캯풱믡볓듳솦뛈쳡룟뛈,틲듋퓚쪵횤퇐뺿랽쏦,볛룱쿞훆킧펦뗄퇐뺿뛔쫐뎡춸쏷뛈늢럇캪쇋쳡룟쫐뎡킧싊,뛸룼뛠뗄쫇쿳췹췹살ퟔ퇇훞맺볒ꆣKim뫍Rhee(1997)볬퇩쇋짏쫐릫쮾믲헟쫐뎡쿫컼틽힡춶헟ꆣ뚫뺩막욱쫐뎡듓1989떽1992쓪뗄죕볛룱쿞훆킧듓쿖폐쪵퇩뷡맻뿉틔뾴떽,쫐뎡룟춸쏷뛈늢펦,쯻쏇뗄뷡맻뇭쏷볛룱쿞훆훆뛈믡닺짺퇓동볛럇튻뚨듸살쫐뎡킧싊뗄쳡룟,폈웤쫇쫂잰뫍쫂뫳룱뷒쪾ꆢ떼훂볛룱늨뚯틔벰룉죅붻틗뗈킧펦,뻝듋탅쾢뛔쫐뎡닺짺뗄킧펦듦퓚ퟅ닮틬ꆣ헢킩쪵퇩뷡죏캪뚫뺩막욱쫐뎡뗄볛룱쿞훆훆뛈쫇쪧킧뗄ꆣ싛뛔췪짆샭싛쒣탍뫍쳡룟쪵볊볠맜릤ퟷ뗄킧싊폐Choi뫍Lee(2001)볬퇩쇋몫맺쫐뎡뗄볛룱쿞훆훆ퟅ훘튪뗄뷨본틢틥ꆣ뛈,쯻쏇뗄뷡싛춬퇹죏캪퇓동볛룱뷒쪾뗄훷튪풭(죽)볛룱볠뿘훆뛈틲쫇볛룱쿞훆맦퓲ꆣ룼훘튪뗄쫇,Choi뫍Lee볛룱볠뿘훆뛈쫇횸복짙볛룱늨뚯ꆢ놣돖볛룱(2001)횸돶뛔볛룱쿞훆킧펦뗄퇐뺿췹췹맘힢폚헇컈뚨뗄튻쾵쇐듫쪩,죧뛏슷웷듫쪩ꆢ헇뗸럹쿞훆ꆢ럹쿞훆,뛔뗸럹쿞훆뫜짙퇐뺿,뛸볛룱쿞훆훆뛈췹207
뷰톩뻼ꆢ퇮쿾삼:쫐뎡쪵퇩폫횤좯붻틗훆뛈짨볆췹퓚ퟨ횹볛룱쿂뗸훐룼볓폐킧ꆣKim뫍YangPorter,Smith(2000),쯻쏇룹뻝쪵퇩뷡맻횸돶싴뿕(2003)뛔첨췥막욱쫐뎡뗄쫽뻝뷸탐쇋볬퇩,쯻쏇믺훆늻쓜쿔훸뗘붵뗍쫐뎡뗄엝쒭솿틔벰엝쒭뗄돖뗄뷡싛쫇떱볛룱뷓뷼쿞훆쮮욽쪱,쿞훆훆뛈믡떼탸쪱볤ꆣ훂맽뛈랴펦,떱볛룱퓚쿞훆쮮욽짏솬탸붻틗쪱,쿞(컥)웚좨붻틗훆뛈훆훆뛈믡붵뗍맽뛈랴펦돌뛈ꆣHicks(1939),Danthine(1978)뫍Grossman본폚샭싛뫍쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻돶쿖뗄훖훖닮틬,(1977)럖뇰퓚샭싛퇐뺿훐횸돶웚좨쫐뎡폐훺폚뺭쪵퇩퇐뺿뿉틔쳡릩튻훖폐틦뗄쮼슷뫍릤뻟ꆣKing볃쾵춳훐폐맘늻춬춶헟볛룱풤웚뗄쮽죋탅쾢뗄뗈(1993)뷸탐쇋6듎쪵퇩,쎿듎쪵퇩돖탸15룶붻삩즢,틲듋쓜릻퓶볓쿖믵쫐뎡뗄탅쾢킧싊뫍엤훃틗훜웚ꆣ쪵퇩맦뚨볛룱뗄헇럹뫍뗸럹늻쓜뎬맽붻킧싊ꆣForsythe(1982)뗄퇐뺿쫇뗚튻룶횧돖짏쫶샭틗맽돌훐떥뷗뛎웚췻뫬샻뗄솽놶ꆣ쪵퇩뷡맻쿔싛뗄쪵퇩ꆣ쯻쏇볬퇩쇋튻룶솽뷗뛎뗄쎻폐늻좷뚨쪾,볛룱쿞훆훆뛈쎻폐ퟨ횹볛룱뗄늨뚯,늢쟒돶쿖탔뗄횤좯쫐뎡,랢쿖떱뗚튻뷗뛎뗄쿖믵쫐뎡폫뗚쇋볛룱욫샫믹뒡볛횵뗄엝쒭쿖쿳ꆣ룹뻝쪵퇩뷡뛾뷗뛎뗄웚좨쫐뎡쿠엤뫏쪱,돉붻볛룱쫕솲폚뻹맻,King뗈죏캪볛룱쿞훆훆뛈뿉쓜믡쪹엝쒭쿖쿳뫢뗄쯙뛈볓뿬쇋ꆣ룼캪퇏훘,틲캪볛룱쿞훆죃붻틗헟룐떽럧쿕붵뗍Porter,Smith(1995)뷸탐쇋뛠ퟩ돖탸15룶붻쇋,듓뛸벤랢쯻쏇붫엝쒭췆뗃룼룟ꆢ쪱볤룼뎤ꆣ듋틗훜웚뗄횤좯쫐뎡쪵퇩ꆣ쯻쏇짨훃쇋튻룶떥캻횤췢,쪵퇩랢쿖퓚헇뗸럹쿞훆쿂,붻틗솿쿔훸붵뗍좯25%룅싊늻럖뫬,25%룅싊럖뫬8쏀럖,25%룅쇋ꆣ퓚뗚6룶붻틗훜웚횮뫳,쫐뎡쎻폐돶쿖죎뫎싊럖뫬28쏀럖,25%룅싊럖뫬60쏀럖뗄럧쿕뷡붻틗ꆣ헢튲횤쏷쇋헇뗸럹쿞훆퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏룉죅릹,틲듋횤좯뗄믹뒡볛횵,튲뻍쫇벴웚붻틗횤좯뗄쇋붻틗ꆣ6듎쪵퇩뗄욽뻹뷡맻죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ뫬샻볛횵쫇튻쳵쿲쿂뗝복쟣킱뗄쟺쿟ꆣ퓚웚좨붻틗쪵퇩ퟩ훐,쎿룶붻틗헟돽쇋붻틗웤쿖듦뗄(spotinventory)횤좯틔췢,뮹뿉틔붻틗웚좨막럝,웚좨붻틗퓚뗚8룶붻틗훜웚뷡쫸ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,붻틗헟쯹돖폐뗄횤좯웚좨튻횱떽뗚8룶붻틗훜웚뷡쫸틔뫳닅쓜믱뗃럖뫬,듋쪱웚좨쫐뎡뷡쫸,늢뷸탐쟥쯣,붻틗헟돖폐뗄웚좨막럝좫늿뮻돉쯻뗄쿖믵ꆣ춨맽헢퇹뗄짨볆,퓚잰8룶붻틗훜웚쓚,웚좨뗄뫬샻볛횵쫇튻쳵욽탐뗄횱쿟,뗈폚뗚8룶훜웚틔뫳춼1ꆡ볛룱쿞훆쿂뗄쪵퇩뷡맻(King,1993)뿉틔믱뗃뗄럖뫬횮뫍ꆣ쪵퇩훐뮹쿲붻틗헟쳡릩쇋ퟣ릻쿖뷰,틔뇜쏢퓚웚좨뫍쿖믵쫐뎡돶쿖뗄쇷뚯(쯄)붻틗횧뢶믺훆탔컊쳢ꆣ붻틗횧뢶믺훆훷튪쳖싛싲뿕폫싴뿕믺훆뛔쫐뎡뗄펰쿬ꆣ떱춶헟퓚좱랦ퟣ릻뗄뷰틔횧뢶릺싲횤좯쯹탨튪뗄볛뿮믲헟쎻폐ퟣ릻뗄횤좯뿉틔릩돶싴쪱,뿉틔퓚뷉쓉맦뚨뗄놣횤뷰뫳뷸탐죚믲헟죚좯,뷸탐싲뿕뫍싴뿕붻틗ꆣ폐맘싲뿕폫싴뿕믺훆뛔횤좯쫐뎡뗄펰쿬튻횱듦퓚벤쇒뗄헹싛,샽죧폐킩퇐뺿헟죏캪싴뿕폐훺폚볛룱컈뚨,쪹쫐뎡뻀헽뛌웚뗄볛룱쪧뗷,쇭튻킩퇐뺿헟퓲죏캪싴뿕뿉쓜믡볓뻧쫐뎡뗄춶믺웸럕ꆣ쪵퇩쫒뗄뷡싛퓲뇭쏷싴뿕믺훆쎻폐웰떽컈뚨볛룱뗄ퟷ폃,샽죧King뗈(1993)뗄쪵퇩뷡맻뇭쏷,싴뿕믺훆뛔볛룱엝쒭춼2ꆡ웚좨쫐뎡쪵퇩뷡맻(Port,Smith,1995)뗄닺짺쎻폐쿔훸뗄펰쿬;샠쯆뗄뷡맻튲살ퟔ208
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2004쓪뗚5웚ꆡ춼2쫇웤훐튻듎쪵퇩뗄뷡맻,벴웚붻틗쫐뎡돶냦짧2002쓪냦ꆣ퓚뗚8룶훜웚횮뫳돶쿖쇋볛룱룟폚믹뒡볛횵뗄엝,TheEconomistasEngineer:GameTheory,쒭쿖쿳ꆣPoExperimentation,andComputationasToolsforDesignEco2rter,Smith(1995)붫폐웚좨쫐뎡뗄쪵퇩뷡맻폫컞웚좨쫐뎡뗄쪵퇩뷡맻뷸탐뇈뷏,뷡맻쿔nomics,ForthcominginEconometrica,Fisher-SchultzLecture,쪾웚좨쫐뎡쓜릻볓뿬춶헟릲춬풤웚탎돉뗄맽://
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2004쓪뗚5웚ꆡ헅뷠ꆶ랽훛ꆷ훐뗄뺣뮪폫쇸좪뫍솺?,췵낲틤ꆶ뎤뫞루ꆷ훐벤뷸,헾훎쟣쿲짏쟷폚컂뫍탔ꆣ쯼훷헅춨맽뷌폽살웕벰뗄췵퇾폫붯샶샲뫍헅폀뫬ꆢ돘샲ꆶ킡뷣쓣퓧ꆷ훐뗄웝죳뫍쳡룟얮탔뗄짧믡탔뇰틢쪶,퓶잿얮탔뗄짧믡탔뇰뻵컲,컯폫샮뾪쇡뫍났퓂,돂좾ꆶ컞뒦룦뇰ꆷ훐뗄튻폫뛾뫍톭탲붥뷸뗘쳡룟얮탔뗄짧믡뗘캻ꆣ헢떱좻늢늻틢캶ퟅ얮싳죽뗈ꆣ뻍쿱킡쾣뛔쳀샦뮪튻퇹,컷랽얮탔훷틥샭싛뛔탔훷틥헟뻍듋럅웺쇋뚷헹,뛸쫇쯽쏇뗄쮼캬뫍닟싔폐쇋훐맺얮ퟷ볒폐ퟅ짮죫뗄펰쿬,폐튻훖쳬좻뗄잱틆쒬뮯뗄뗷헻ꆣꆰ잰헟듺뇭뗄쫇튻훖ퟔ짏뛸쿂뗄뇤룯,훷헅벤쇒뗄ꆰ쒧솦ꆱꆣ뇤룯,춨맽뗟뢲뫍쿻뷢쓐좨살듯떽ퟔ벺뗄쒿뗄;뛸뫳헟듺ꆰ쓣쫇욻맻컒쫇샦ꆱ,쳀샦뮪폫쿄킡쾣폖늻샗춬ꆣ떫뇭뗄쫇튻훖ퟔ쿂뛸짏뗄룄룯,춨맽쳡룟좫쳥얮탔뗄짧믡쳀샦뮪늻믡돉캪쿄킡쾣ꆪꆪꆪ헢쯆뫵튲뇭쏷쇋훐맺얮ퟷ볒탔뇰틢쪶뫍뻵컲살쪵쿖ퟔ벺뗄쒿뇪ꆣꆱꋛ퓚뷓쫜컷랽얮탔훷틥쪱뗄튻훖ퟋ첬ꆪꆪꆪꆰ뫍뛸늻춬ꆱ,쫇ퟜ횮,췲랽뗄ꆶ쓣쫇욻맻컒쫇샦ꆷ쇷슶돶뗄뚫랽쫓뷇,폐헧뇰뗘뷓쫜,헢뻍쫇튻훖얮탔훷틥뗄뚫랽쫓뷇ꆣ평폚쪹ퟷ욷뻟폐쇋틬폚컷랽얮탔훷틥뗄틬훊즫닊,뛸웤뇭샺쪷컄뮯뗄닮틬,훐맺얮탔쯹쫜뗄톹틖폫컷랽얮탔쯹쫜쿖돶뗄뛔솽탔맘쾵뗄뿭죝첬뛈,폖폫떱뷱얮탔훷틥춨맽뗄톹웈듳늻쿠춬,훐맺뗄뒫춳컄뮯튲펰쿬쇋떱듺뻟폐얮쳡룟얮탔뗄짧믡탔뇰틢쪶뫍뻵컲살쪵쿖ퟔ벺쒿뗄뗄뎱쇷탔틢쪶뗄ퟷ볒뗄킴ퟷퟋ첬,늻믡쿱컷랽얮탔훷틥쓇퇹벤늻쒱뛸뫏ꆣ퓚ꆰ좫쟲뮯ꆱ돉캪짧믡랢햹듳쟷쫆뗄뷱쳬,훐쇒ꆣ헽죧컷랽얮탔훷틥뿉틔벤쇒뗘뷢릹쓐좨컄뮯ꆢ뷢릹맺뗄얮탔뒴ퟷ튻랽쏦튪쮳펦쪱듺뗄탂뇤뮯,튻랽쏦튪뇪튻쟐ힼ퓲,뛸훐맺뗄얮탔훷틥퓋뚯쯤좻ힷ쒽컷랽,퓲뮹쫇짏ꆰ훐맺ꆱ뗄뇪잩,헢퇹닅쓜틔ퟔ벺뛀쳘뗄퇔쮵랽쪽폫쫀폐쯹뺴캷폐쯹캪폐쯹늻캪뗄ꆣ뷧얮탔훷틥컄톧뗄랢햹춬늽잰뷸ꆣퟷ헟뗄퇛뷧뮹늻횹폚듋,쯽퓚ퟷ욷훐뮹랴펳쇋쓐탔뫍짧믡맛쓮뗄뇤ꆣ쓐탔쫇죧뫎뾴듽얮탔(쳀샦뮪)뗄헢힢쫍:훖뇤뗄쓘?쳀샦뮪뗄잰럲듺뇭쇋튻훖뿭죝뗄맛뗣ꆣ킡ꋙ놫쿾삼훷뇠ꆶ:컷랽얮탔훷틥퇐뺿움뷩ꆤ잰퇔ꆷ,죽솪쫩뗪쮵뮹뢽듸쳡떽쇋돇쫐훐풽살풽뛠뗄ꆰ늻벱폚뷡믩뻣샖1995쓪냦,뗚5튳ꆣ늿ꆱꋚ슬뾨웵ꆶ:슬뾨웵컄싛톡ꆷ뗚뛾뻭,훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺돶냦짧,뇭쿖쇋헻룶짧믡뛔솽탔첬뛈뗄뿭죝ꆣ듓쫀뷧랶캧살쮵,듓뺭뗤얮탔훷틥랢햹떽뫳얮탔훷틥,퓚쮼캬뫍닟싔짏1981쓪냦,뗚452튳ꆣ틑뺭폐쇋뫜듳뗄룄뇤ꆣ죧맻쮵,뺭뗤얮탔훷틥헟폐뇈뷏ꋛꆶ듓얮좨훷틥떽뫳얮좨훷틥ꆷ,퓘ꆶ훐뮪뛁쫩놨ꆷ2001쓪7퓂잿쇒뗄탔뇰뛔뾹틢쪶18죕뗚22냦ꆣ,짵훁폐맽튻킩맽벤뗄퇔싛뫍탐뚯뗄뮰,쓇쎴,뫳얮탔훷틥퓲럅웺쇋뺭뗤얮좨훷틥뗄욫웄ꆢ퓰죎뇠벭ꆡ틼ꆡ횮(짏뷓뗚209튳)1994,,,,,Suchanek,G,andWilliams,A,,DividingthePie:AsymmetricallyInformedBubbles,crashes,andendogenousexpectationsinexperimentalDealersandMarketTransparency,ERIMReportSeriesReferencespotassetmarkets,ꆱEconometrica,1988,56,-2002-101-F&A,,CharlesNoussairandCharlesPlott,,MaureenOꆯHara,MarketBubblesandRationality:AdditionalEvidenceFromCapitalGainsTransarency:WhoWinsandWhoLoses?,TheReviewofFinan2TaxExperiments,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,SocialSci2cialStudies,,,,2002,,ExperimentalAssetMarkets:ASurvey,,,,,NonspeculativeBubblesinExperimentalAssetMarkets:,Princeton,.:,1995,,ꆱEconometrica,2001,69(4),,Avanidhar,Circuitbreakersandmar2ketvolatility:atheoreticalperspective,JournalofFinance,49,퓰죎뇠벭ꆡ뚭쾣췻203
