ֻ31जֻ3௹Кն࿐࿐Б(ሱಖ॓࿐ϱ) 2009୍9ᄅJournalofHubeiUniversity(NaturalScience)Sept.,2009 ໓ᅣщݼ:1000 2375(2009)03 0244 04ຓл߸ੱ֥थקၹ эඔ࿐ଆაܼӆླྀၰ刘远红(ݱള۽ӱ࿐ჽܵ۽ӱ༢,Кݱ430415)ᅋေ:ᄎႨՖં֞ൌ࠽֥࣮ٚم,๙ݖຓл߸ؑᇅ؇ࠣຓл߸ੱ֥эඔ࿐ଆ֥ં,ၛܼࠣؓӆླྀၰ֥නॉ,֤ԛຓл߸ੱ֥Ⴕܱथקၹ. ܱՍ:ຓл߸ੱ;ຓл߸ੱᇅ؇;эඔ࿐ଆ;ܼӆླྀၰ ᇏٳোݼ: ໓ངѓᆽ:A DOI: ᄝ၂۱ष٢֥ࣜ࠶ุᇅᇏ,߸ੱ൞ԩႿނྏֹ໊֥ࣜ࠶эਈ,߸ੱᇅ؇൞၂ݓࣜ࠶ൌགྷଽຓޙ֥ూਃބ୧ջ.ݓႿ2006୍4ᄅ20ರఓದл߸ੱཬږ؇ڜᇅ,֞ଢభ࠹эږ؇ၘࣜղ15%ቐႷ.ᄝᇏݓࡆೆWTOުຓл߸ؑੱ္ྶႮܥק߸ੱሇэູڜ߸,ੱᆃၘࣜӮູ൙ൌ.οᅶࣜ࠶࿐,ંຓл߸ੱႋႮ൧ӆטࢫ.൞,ൗࢸ۲ݓᄝ1973୍2ᄅൌྛڜ߸ؑੱު,Ⴟ1985୍9ᄅൌീਔದູࢺೆຓл൧ӆ.Ч໓ؓຓл߸ੱ֥थקၹቔႵܱฐษ.1 ຓл߸ؑᇅ؇[1]ᄝࣉྛຓл߸ੱ֥ંඍᆭభ,൮༵ંඍຓл߸ؑᇅ؇.ᄝંඍᇏ,ॖၛਔࢳຓл߸֥ؑࣜࢨ؍ၛࠣ۲ࢨ؍֥ཌྷܱМࣟaົ༢ᆀaຓл߸ؑᆟҦ,Ֆᇏؿགྷຓл߸ੱᇅ؇ဆэݖӱ൞Ⴎದູၹߎ൞ࠊлሱദ۴ऌ܂ܱ༢طؿളэ߄֥ࢲݔ.ُؿྛࠊл֥ݓࡅсྶथקေҐႨᄸဢ֥ຓл߸ؑᇅ؇,ᆃ۱थקՖંഈ൞ᆷܥק߸ੱࠇᆀڜ߸ੱ֥࿊ᄴ.ܥק߸ੱაڜ߸ੱ֥࿊ᄴπൕሢၛݓࡅಃ৯ࢺೆຓл߸ؑ൧ӆ֥ӱ؇.ᆟکၩრؓљݓࠊлࠇᆀљ֥گඔࠊл֥ކӮࡎᆴ(compositeofothercurrencies)აሱݓࠊл֥߸ੱܥק֥߅,ູਔົӻຓл߸ੱࣼсྶࢺೆຓл߸ؑ൧ӆઙછሱݓࠊл.ཌྷّೂݔᆟکປಆ҂ࢺ,ೆࣼ൞࿊ᄴຓл߸ੱሱႮэ.ൌ࠽ഈ,ᆟک൳ࢺೆຓл߸ؑ൧ӆ֥ӱ؇a่ࡱ֥ᇅჿ,ᄝ༐ຬ֥эږ؇ଽؓຓл߸ੱࣉྛ֥ܵ౦ঃޓ؟.ݓ࠽ࠊлᇅ؇ᇶေ൞ݓ࠽ࣁЧ໊ᇅ(1880-1914୍)aᅞᆚᇏၛࠣᅞࡗ௹֥ݓ࠽ࠊлุᇅa҃ূؘ೦ਟ߸ੱᇅ(Bretonwoodssystem)ၛࠣಆ૫ڜ߸ੱᇅඹࢨ؍.ᄝݓ࠽ࣁЧ໊ᇅ༯,ߛࣁ֥ੀԛؿളൈ,ҕࡆݓູ՜ࣉࣁЧ໊ᇅ֥ሱטᆜି৯ࠣ൧ӆҕࡆᆀӻႵߛࣁၛຓ֥ሧӁ,Ґ౼ཋᇅߛࣁ০༏֥טᆜᆟҦ.൞ࣁЧ໊ᇅ֥ӻ࿃ॖିྟაטᆜݖӱીႵܱ༢,ა൧ӆҕࡆᆀ൞ڎཌྷྐᆃ၂טᆜིݔႵܱ༢.ࣜႮᆟک֥טᆜೂݔીႵߛࣁ֥ࡨഒ๔ᆸ֥ಒൌᆣऌ,൧ӆҕࡆᆀ߶Ⴕࠏ֥Ⴚၹ,Ⴈࡎᆴ҂؎༯ࢆ֥ࠊлܓઙߛࣁ.ࢲݔᆟک֥ߛࣁԥС߶ࡆࡨഒ,ࣁЧ໊ᇅ֥ӻ࿃ॖିྟ߶Фൊ.ਆՑൗࢸնᅞᆭࡗࠣਆՑᅞᆚ௹ࡗ֥ݓ࠽ࠊлุᇅ൞؋ᄠ,္֥൞ಌكνקྟ.֥1921୍֞1926୍ᆭࡗ,ؓႿᇶေࠊлࡗ֥߸ੱ۲ᇏနၿྛປಆ҂ࢺ,ೆሱႮэ൞Фಪॖ.֥Ֆ1926୍֞1931୍ᄝ؟ඔݓࡅ๙ݖ֝ೆگࠃࣁЧ໊ᇅ,ຓл߸ੱФܥק༯ট.1931୍۲ݓࡼࣁЧ໊ᇅ٬Ԣၛ,ުݓ࠽ࠊлᇅ؇ᄝ҂νקࠁᚧ֥ሑ༯၍.1936୍ၛ,ުႇૅمࡗֿࢲਔݓࠊлླྀק,ྙӮླྀטܵຓл߸ੱ֥ᇅ؇.҃ূؘ೦ਟ߸ੱุᇅᄝܴഈ൞թᄝႿሱႮᇶၬაࢺೆᇶၬ֥ᇏࡗ.ູਔܒᇽ఼ਛֹေሱႮસ൬۠ರ௹:2008 10 19ࠎࣁཛଢ:ݱ൧࢝ტअ࢝ཛଢ(2008J29)ሧᇹቔᆀࡥࢺ:ਾჹޣ(1968 ),୯,ණൖ
ֻ3௹ਾჹޣ:ຓл߸ੱ֥थקၹ 245ၞ֥ᆟᇍಃ৯aປಆܦႛၛࠣေࣜ࠶νק֥ᆟᇍಃ৯ᆭࡗ֥ླྀቔܱ༢,ཌྷࡗࢌടିඨ০ࣉྛ.ఃᇏ֥ଢ֥ߎႵؓႿࣜ࠶҂ࣟగݓࡅ,ཞ1930୍ൻೆܿᄵၛࠣሱݓࠊл֥ࡨࡎପဢ֥ิശݓ࠽ࣩᆚ৯֥[࣍ਣ౫߄(beggar my neighbor)]ᆟҦࡼ҂ФҐႨ.ᆃဢ֥ࢲݔ൞,۲ݓᄝᆟҦഈႵཌྷ֒৫.ྟ൞ܱႿຓл߸ੱ֥Ҡቔaݓ࠽સၞၛࠣሧЧܿᄵсྶေՖႿݓ࠽ླྀק,္ࣼ൞ൌྛ؟࢘ܵᇅ؇.ᆃ۱ᇅ؇षႿ1940୍Ԛ,Ⴎႇݓaૅݓਆݓᆟکष࠹߃,ૌࡼᆟکཌྷܱ҆ದჴა࣮ᆀᅺࠢఏটษંᅞުࠊлࠣࣁವ൧ӆ֥ݓ࠽ࡗܱ༢֥ܿᄵᇅ؇,ၛࠣטᆜཌྷࡗ֥නॉٚم.1944୍7ᄅᄝྍݨ҃༱ᇜ֥҃ূؘ೦ਟ߶ၰഈ,44۱ݓࡅҐႨၛഈ֥ླྀק.1946୍11ᄅྍ֥ݓ࠽ࣜ࠶ᇇႮ32۱ݓࡅປӮܥקຓл߸ੱ֥࿆.ၛഈંඍᇏॖၛुԛຓл߸ؑᇅ؇Ⴕܥק߸ؑᇅაэ߸ؑᇅ,ؿྛࠊл֥ݓࡅсྶथקൡႨ֥ᇅ؇.ಖط,ݓ࠽ࠊл߸ؑᇅ؇э൞Ⴎഒඔૅ֩ݓࡅটླྀטᅧ॥֥,ᆃၘࣜ൞҂ᆚ֥൙ൌ.൞ຓл߸ੱָ֞൞ࠊлࡎᆴၹ(ࡎඣa০ੱ֩)টथקߎ൞ದູၹ(ଖུࣜ࠶նݓ֥ၩ჻)টथק?༯૫ࡼႨэඔ࿐ଆটଆࠊлࡎᆴၹؓຓл߸ੱ֥႕ཙ.2 ຓл߸ੱ֥эඔ࿐ଆ ຓл߸ੱაࡎඣ ຓл߸ੱაࡎඣթᄝܱ༢֥ಪ്൞ၛ༆ϫ֥ঘણव࿐ஊ(schoolofSalamanca)ູսі,֥ᆃିሔි֞16ൗࡀ.ᆃ၂ಪ്֥ఏჷაࠊлඔਈ࿐ඪ֥ؿᅚ৳༢ᄝ၂ఏ.ᆭުࣜ࠶࿐ࡅࣼᆦӻܱႿຓл߸ੱაࡎඣ൞ཌྷ৵֥ܴ,ѩ՜ఃؿᅚ.1918୍ުࣜ࠶࿐ࡅܞථෳڏ वೣห(GustavCasset)षਔФӫູܓઙ৯ࡎ(purchasingpowerparity,ၛ༯ࡥӫູPPP)֥ॉҳ.๙ݖնਈ࣮,ܼਔຓл߸ੱაݓଽࠊлֆ໊ཌྷؓܓઙ৯ႋૡ్ཌྷ৵֥ुم.PPPંႵਆᇕіགྷྙൔ.ध֥ؓPPP൞ᆷਆݓࠊлࡗ֥ຓл߸ੱაਆݓࡎඣбੱཌྷ.֩ऎุ֥іགྷ:ູS=PP*(1)ൔᇏ:S൞၂ֆ໊Bݓࠊлཌྷ֒ႿAݓࠊлଢ߸.ੱP൞Aݓ֥ࡎඣ,P*൞Bݓ֥ࡎඣ.ཌྷ֥ؓPPP,ᆷຓл߸ੱ൞ࡎඣሙ֥бੱა၂קбੱ֥ܱ༢.ࠧ S=KPP*(2)ൔᇏ:K൞၂קૂࢺඔ.(1)a(2)ൔؓඔэߐު֤֞܄ൔ:s=d+p-*p(3)ൔᇏ*:s,p,p൞۲۱S,P,P*֥ؓඔᆴ,d൞ૂࢺඔ֥ؓඔᆴ.෮ၛध֥ؓPPP൞ᄝd=0ൈ֥іགྷ.ંଧ၂۱PPP֥ྙൔၩሢࡎඣ֥бੱэ߄აຓл߸ੱ൞б২э߄.֥෮ၛ s= p- *p(4)ࡎඣ֥ཌྷܱ౦Б҂൞ध֥ؓࡎඣ,ࢠ؟൞ၛࡎᆷඔ֥ྙФ০Ⴈ,ᆃࣼթᄝध֥ؓPPPॖିᄝൌႨഈ֥ь০ྟ҂֥ۚࡌඪ.ંଧ၂ᇕ౦ঃ,ᄝն؟ඔ֥ൌᆣ࣮ഈູဒPPP֥ຈ֒ྟႨࡎᆷඔ.PPPࡌඪႨൌᇉຓл߸ੱ(Q)ުିᄜקၬၛ༯֥܄ൔ: Q=SPP*(5)ᆃ֥Sა(2)ൔཌྷљ.Վۀႄೆު,(1)a(2)ൔіൕਔൌᇉ߸ੱ൞҂൳ൈࡗэ߄֥႕ཙ.ਸ਼ຓః֥ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅ[1],ิԛӉ௹PPPࣇ൞ؓݓଽࡎᆷඔᆭᇏસၞູܒӮေൈҌӮ৫.൞ᄝॉ੮ᆃ۱ФӫູࢠӉ௹ࡗ֥ૂࢺඔSൈ,ᇗေ֥൞ؓႿཞರЧࠇᆀέ۴๓ପဢൌᇉ൬ೆაݓཌྷбࣜਔࠤखэ߄֥ݓࡅ,ၛൌᆣᆦӻӉ௹PPP൞หљ֥. ຓл߸ੱა০༏ ֞19ൗࡀࢲඏ,๙ݖࣁЧ໊ᇅൈսႇݓ֥ࣁವᆟҦࣜဒ,০༏֥טᆜթᄝ႕ཙຓл߸ੱ֥эॖି,ྟᆃᄝᆟҦᇅקᆀᆭࡗၘӮູ܋.്ຓл߸ੱა০༏ࡗթᄝࣅૡ৳༢֥ಪ്,19ൗࡀު϶௹ᄝຓл߸ؑ௹ࠊ൧ӆФၿྛൌༀࢸӫູ҂௹ࡗ֥০༏a߸ੱ֥ҵ(spread)۷ࡆФಒקਔ.ֻ၂Ցൗࢸնᅞުຓл߸ؑ௹ࠊቆᆮषঔն,ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅऺضථ(Keyens)ᄝ1923୍ؿіਔቋԚุ֥༢.০༏ࡎࡌඪႵਆ۱ᇶေ֥ྙ,္ࣼ൞ڸႵЌ০༏ࡎ(coveredinterestrateparityCIP)ބ҂ڸЌ০༏ࡎ(uncoveredinterestrateparityUIP).Ֆ൙ݓ࠽સၞြᆀ߶దרᄝࡼটଖ၂ൈׄᆦڱࠇᆀࢤ൳ຓݓࠊл֥ކ.ᄝຓݓࠊл֥ࢲෘൈׄᆭభ,ႮႿކჰၹຓл߸ੱ֥э߄෮ᄯӮാࠇ০ၭ֥ڄགႮࢌၞ֒൙ದӵք.
246Кն࿐࿐Б(ሱಖ॓࿐ϱ)ֻ31जਸ਼၂ٚ૫,ႮႿຓл߸ؑ௹ࠊ൧ӆ൞ิ܂ࡼটຓлࢲෘӁള֥҂ಒקྟФஆԢ֥ቆᆮ.္ࣼ൞ඪ,ຓл߸ؑ௹ࠊ൧ӆิ܂ਔᄝࡼটࢲෘൈׄ,ၛ൙భᄝھ൧ӆླྀק֥௹ࠊຓл߸ੱটؑߐຓл,ࠇᆀཌྷّٚཟ֥ؑߐ.ંഈษં֥൞ၛ༯ଽಸ:ࡌקrtބ*rt൞Ֆt֞t+1௹ᄝAaBਆݓሧሱݓࠊл֤֥֞০༏,ਸ਼ຓStބFt൞ҩਈBݓࠊл၂ֆ໊ཌྷ֒ႿAݓࠊл֥ࠧൈᆰࢤ߸ੱၛࠣ௹ࠊຓл߸,ੱstބftіൕູStބFt֥ؓඔᆴ.Ⴈࠧൈᆰࢤ߸ੱࡼBݓࠊл၂ֆ໊ؑߐӮAݓࠊл.္ࣼ൞ሧAݓࠊл֞t+1௹ൈ,ࡼэӮSt(1+rt)ֆ໊֥Aݓࠊл.ཌྷّᄝtൈֿׄࢲຓл௹ࠊކ,֒ԚBݓࠊлߎ൞ሧBݓࠊлӻႵ֞t+1௹ൈ,္ॖၛؑߐF*t(1+rt)ֆ໊֥Aݓࠊл.෮ၛᆃਆᇕሧࠏ߶ᄝіൕࠊлა০༏ၛຓఃಆ҆֩ࡎ֥౦ঃ༯,Ⴎ൧ӆ৯іൕ֥नޙሑॖၛіགྷູ:F*t(1+rt)=St(1+rt)(6)ၹູ1+*rtބ1+rt൞࣍රູ1,(6)ൔॖႨၛ༯܄ൔіൕ:Ft(rt-*rt)Ft-St=1+*S*!1+rt-*rt,෮ၛft-st=rt-*rt,!ft-st!rt-rt(7)t(1+rt)StႮ(6)ൔ൞ૡ֥ྙൔࠇᆀ(7)ൔ࣍ර֥ྙіགྷ֥ܱ༢,൞ቔູڸႵЌ০༏ࡎ(CIP)่֥ࡱ.ၹՎᆃ၂܄ൔิ܂ᄝt+1௹ၹູᆦڱࠇᆀ൬֞ຓݓࠊлྙӮ֥ຓл߸ੱڄགַཨ(hedge)ࠇЌჰၹ,સၞᆀࠇሧᆀсྶေᆦڱ௹ࠊحຓٮႨ(premium)ࠇᅼ२(discount)(္ࣼ൞௹ࠊ߸ੱაࠧൈᆰࢤ߸ੱ֥ඣбੱࠇᆀ௹ࠊ߸ੱࠇᆰࢤ߸ੱ֥ؓඔҵ).ڸႵЌ০༏ࡎ่ࡱ֥֝ԛ൞ၛt௹֥Bݓࠊл၂ֆ໊֞t+1௹֥Aݓࠊл෮іൕჅح֥ਆᇕูսሧࣁᄎႨٚم֥бࢠቔູࠎԤ.ֻᇕูսٚم൞Bݓࠊл֥Ԛ௹ֆ໊ߎ൞ሧBݓࠊл,ᄝt+1௹Ⴈࠧൈᆰࢤ߸ੱؑߐAݓࠊл,ቋުӮູSt+1(1+*rt)ֆ໊֥Aݓࠊл.൞ᆃֻᇕูսٚم൞ሧࡅႨ֥ຓл߸ੱᆰ֞ࠊлэߐູᆸթᄝ҂ಒק.ྟ္ࣼ൞ຓл߸ੱ֥ڄག൞Ֆt௹֞t+1௹ᆭࡗ൞ીႵЌ֥.Ֆ҂ФЌ֥ሧ֤֞௹ր০ၭ,ીႵڄག֥࿊ᄴ൞Ֆ௹ԚؑߐӮAݓࠊл,ູ֤֥֞௹ր൬ၭିܔनޙ,൧ӆ৯ؿߨࠏି൞҂ڸЌ০༏ࡎ(UIP)ࡌඪ֥భิ่ࡱ.หљ൞ᄝEt(St+1)Ⴟt௹ط,ೂݔіགྷູt+1௹֥ࠧൈᆰࢤ߸ੱ௹րᆴൈ,UIPࡌඪࡼၛၛ༯܄ൔіൕ:E*t(St+1)(1+rt)=St(1+rt)(8)Վ܄ൔაၛ༯ܱ༢ൔ࣍රཌྷ֩ Et(St+1)-St(1+rt)=rt-*rt(9)ᄝCIPࡌඪބUIPࡌඪࢲކު,сྶᇿၩ֝ԛ֥ၛ༯ܱ༢ൔ:Et(St+1)!ft(10)сྶᇿၩ֥൞CIPࠣUIPॖקၬՖt௹ष֞t+1௹֥ޅ၂۱֥ડ௹.෮ၛ,ଧ၂ᇕࡌඪބֻ(10)ൔ,ೂݔܱႿ၂్֥ડ௹൞ൡ֒,֥ຓл௹ࠊ߸ੱ֥Фܴҳ௹ࡗࢲܒ္ॖՖ(ֻ7)ൔष,ࠧ௹ᆰࢤ߸ੱაݓଽຓ০༏֥Фܴҳ௹ࡗࢲܒ,ॖၛФ০ႨӮູ؎ಆ҆ࡼট֥௹րᆰࢤ߸ੱ֥ൈࡗࣜݖ[1].Ֆၛഈଽಸটु,ࡎඣა০༏ؓຓл߸ੱթᄝ႕ཙ.൞ࡎඣ֥႕ཙ҂൞؋௹֥,ط൞Ӊ௹,֥ᆃၘࣜФൌᆣ෮ᆣૼ.০༏ຓл௹ࠊ߸ੱაᆰࢤ߸ੱ֥эթᄝ৳༢,൞҂թᄝ৳༢֥౦ঃ္Фൌᆣᆣૼ.Ֆၛഈંඍॖၛ֤ԛᄝ၂Ϯ౦ঃ༯,ࡎඣა০༏൞ຓл߸ੱ֥थקၹᆭ၂.൞ᄝห൹౦ঃ༯,Ⴎᆃུࠊлࡎᆴၹটטࢫຓл߸ੱః႕ཙ૫,ܼ҂ಸၞᅧࠣղ҂֞མི֥ݔ,ߎթᄝٮൈࡗӉ֩҂ቀჰၹ.ᄝགྷൌᇏႵൈ߶Ґ౼ᆰࢤᄝຓ߸൧ӆഈઙછყ༵ಒקࠊлটטࢫଖུࠊл߸,ੱॖၛղ֞႕ཙ૫ཬaಸၞᅧၛࠣղ֞ყ௹ིݔ.༯૫ࡼՖܼӆླྀၰটॉҳຓл߸ੱэ֥ਸ਼၂۱ၹ:ದູၹ.3 ܼӆླྀၰ(plazaaccord)ܼӆླྀၰ൞Ⴎૅݓ֒ൈ֥ҍӉНक़ࠣఃؒؿఏ.֥֒ൈऎႵགྷൌᇶၬቔڄ֥ڬ҆Ӊ,҂ડቀႿభ۴ᆟکؓຓл߸ؑ൧ӆҐ౼ሱႮᇶၬ֥ቓم,ູݓ࠽ࠊл൧ӆ֥໗קၛ఼ࠣ߄აG5(ૅݓa༆֣aႇݓaمݓࠣರЧ)֥ླྀטܱ༢,طईྛ֥5ݓҍӉაᇏနၿྛྛӉ߶ၰ.ಖطईྛܼӆླྀၰ֥ଽᄝჰၹ൞ෛሢૅݓ֥ҍᆟԅሳཨࡨaඥᇅڿ۪֩ᆟҦ֥ิԛ,ݓ࠽ࠊл൧ӆࡼ߶ۋत֤,֞߶఼൝֥ૅჭݖႿ఼൝.֒ൈૅݓࣼླေҐ౼ࢌടྛٝᆸᆃᇕ൙ؿള,Ґ౼ྛᆀࣼ൞֒ൈҍӉНक़[2].
ֻ3௹ਾჹޣ:ຓл߸ੱ֥थקၹ 247֥҄ᇧ൞൮༵ᄝϘཟರЧิԛࡹၰ,ѩղӮ܋,്ᆭު৳༢ᇝܱ༢ݓ.ܱႿૅݓؓᇝܱ༢ݓീࡆ֥႕ཙ,֒ൈႇݓ֥અ೦ҍༀնӡᄝᇷቔᇏቓਔඪૼ[3].ܼӆG5ऊ߶Ֆ1985୍9ᄅ22ರ(ྒ௹ರ)11ׄ϶֞16ׄ϶ᄝܼӆџܶ၂ੌ߶ၰ൩ᅺष.ԛ༜ᆀ൞ૅݓa༆֣aႇݓaمݓၛࠣರЧ֥ҍӉބနྛ֥ྛӉ,܋࠹18ದ.ᆃՑ߶ၰ൞ղӮ֥ླྀטቔᅞ֥ቋު၂۱҄ᇧ.ᄝ1985୍9ᄅ֞10ᄅ֥6ᇛ,ᆳྛ֥൞ૅჭაರჭࠇ֣ݓઔक़֥ઙછ,္ࣼ൞છԛૅჭઙೆರჭࠇ֣ݓઔक़.ႮG10ᇏနၿྛ֥ૅჭࢌၞ౻֡܄षԛ൲ح൞:ૅݓ֒अၡૅჭ,ರЧaمݓa֣ݓaႇݓ܋࠹ԛ൲ჿ50ၡૅჭ.ሹطᆭG5܋࠹൞80ၡૅჭ֥ࢺೆح.ᆃᆭຓၩն০֩ః֥G10Ӯჴݓછוਔ20ၡૅჭ(1985୍12ᄅ4ರ֥∀୧ჿ৳ކၿྛ4࠱؇Бۡ#֥ඔऌ).ܼӆླྀၰ֥ؿіؓຓл߸ؑ൧ӆӁളॹ఼৯ི֥ݔ.ჰၹ൞:Ф֒Ӯ൞ၩຓ֥൙ࡱ,ၛࠣ൧ӆᇿၩ֞ᆃ۱ഡམ൞Ⴎૅݓิԛ.ࡼఃुቔ൞֞ଢభູᆸ఼൝ૅჭࢤ൳აߋ႒۴ᆟಃ֥ᆟҦ۷ู.ᄝࣁವٚ૫,Ф൧ӆࢳູ۴ऌླྀၰ,FRBؓࠊл܂ႋ֥खᄹીႵҐ౼ࣅ෪ረ.ܼӆླྀၰ֥؋௹ིݔ൞:1985୍2ᄅ༯࿗֥ቋۚᆴ൞1ૅჭؑߐ263 15ರჭၛࠣ1ૅჭؑߐ3 4395֣ݓઔक़,ܼӆླྀၰު֥1986୍1ᄅ17ರ1ૅჭؑߐರჭၛࠣ1ૅჭؑߐ2 4650֣ݓઔक़.ܼӆླྀၰުರჭശᆴ,1986୍ರЧఒြᆞൔࣉೆתଲ൧ӆ.ਸ਼ຓՖ1993୍षֻ֥ؽՑರჭശᆴ,္ࣼ൞ӑᄀ100ರჭ֥ശᆴ,ӮູರЧఒြࣉೆᇏݓ൧ӆ֥ఔࠏ[4].ၛഈંඍॖၛुԛ,ၛૅݓູ൮֥༆ٚؿղݓࡅ,ؓႿ఼൝ૅჭ֥טᆜીႵҐ౼ᆞӈ֥ޡܴࣜ࠶ᆟҦ.ط൞๙ݖაఃඹݓದູ֥܋ࢺೆݓ࠽ࠊл൧ӆ,๙ݖછԛૅჭઙೆರჭࠇ༆֣ઔक़טࢫૅჭაರჭa༆֣ઔक़ᆭࡗ֥߸.ੱದູၹ൞႕ཙຓл߸ੱ֥ቋॹaቋᆰࢤa႕ཙ૫ቋཬ֥ၹ.4 ࢲં၂൞Ⴈඔ࿐۽ऎܒࡹཌྷႋ֥ຓл߸ੱ֥эඔ࿐ଆ,๙ݖՎଆॖၛଆԛຓл߸ੱэ֥ཌྷܱथקၹ,Ֆط۳۲ݓᇅקሱ֥࠭ຓл߸ੱᆟҦิ܂ҕॉ.ؽ൞๙ݖܼӆླྀၰॖुԛ,གྷᄝຓл߸ੱ൧ӆ൞ၛૅݓູ൮֥ࣜ࠶ؿղݓࡅ܋ົӻ֥෮໌∃֥э߸ੱྍุᇅ%.൞ཞܼӆླྀၰପဢ,ࣇࣇႮഒඔࣜ࠶ؿղݓࡅটದູ॥ᇅཞຓл߸ؑ൧ӆ၂ဢ֥ࣁವ൧ӆ,൞ڎ္൞ՎՑࣁವາࠏӁള֥ჰၹ?ҕॉ໓ང:[1][M].ྶᅌᆞྜྷ,ۚקૅ,౬Ⴊ.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,1995:55,73,76 77.[2]࣍ฬࡲဎ.ܼӆླྀၰ֥࣮[M].תࣘ:תလࣜ࠶ԛϱഠ,1999:31 50,53,58.[3][M].London:CorgiBooks,1992:535,537.[4]࣍ฬࡲဎ.ቔູת၂ჴ֥ರЧ ֥ᇝં[J].JOYOARCReport,1996(1): changesinmathematicalmodelandplazaaccordLIUYuan hong(DepartmentofManagementEngineering,WuhanBioengineeringInstitute,Wuhan430415,China)Abstract:Thispaper,byadoptingresearchmethodsoftheoryinconnectionwithpracticalapplicationfromforeigncurrencyexchangesystemandthetheoryofmathematicalmodelconcerningthechangesofforeigncurrencyexchangerate,aswellasthethinkingofplazaaccord,:foreigncurrencyexchangerate;foreigncurrencyexchangeratesystem;changesinmathematicalmodel;plazaaccord(责任编辑晏建章)
