中国移动通信集团公司
市场分析培训
二○○三年三月三十一号，北京
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
今天培训的目的
希望这培训可以帮助您们:
了解如何从较宏观的角度来考虑问题
更完善地提供高级管理层所需要的数据
更好地与其他部门配合
提高分析能力
UNDERSTANDING COMPETITIVE POSITION IS CRITICAL
TO IDENTIFYING UNIQUE VALUE
Competitors’
capabilities and
positions
Customer’s
needs
Company
capabilities and
position
Unrewarded
capability
Blind spot
(competitive risk
in the long term)
Risk of
Commodity
Unique
value
added
AGENDA
Analyzing your market
Getting an overview of the industry
Getting an overview of the company
Analyzing competition
Understanding the customers
WHY CREATE AN INDUSTRY OVERVIEW ?
The purpose of an industry overview is to
Highlight trends / issues of major relevance to our relationship with the industry
Understand how these rank in importance to the industry
Understand more broadly how our customers view the world
Use industry analysis only to understand relevant context and issues facing your customer
Ask yourself
What is relevant to my customer and to our relationship ?
What do I need to understand ?
What do I need to further detail ?
KEY ELEMENTS OF A BASIC INDUSTRY ANALYSIS (I)
Sizing of industry revenues, profits and growth rates
Key industry events and trends
Characterization of key industry segments (products x customers)
Identification of cost and profit drivers
Performance measures and industry benchmarks
Identification and evaluation of key factors of success
Key opportunities for capable companies
KEY ELEMENTS OF A BASIC INDUSTRY ANALYSIS (II)
Key elements
Sizing of industry revenues, profits and growth rates
Key industry events and trends
Characterization of key industry segments
Description of analyses
Revenues and profits over time
Split of revenues in volume and price
Identification of revenues and profits sources
Industry history
Emergence of new technologies
Assessment of current / future regulatory situation and its impact
Change in clients' behavior
Industry player response to changes
Forecasts on growth and changes (scenario)
Product and technology segmentation
Client segmentation
Product offering and client behavior and needs by segment
Satisfiers and dissatisfiers by segment
Revenue and profit by segment
KEY ELEMENTS OF A BASIC INDUSTRY ANALYSIS (III)
Key elements
Identification of cost (and profit) drivers
Performance measures and industry benchmarks
Identification and evaluation of key factors of
success in the industry
Key opportunities for capable companies
Description of analyses
Evaluate part of company products / services in total customer cost structure
Basic cost structure for the "average player"
Understanding of cost dynamics
Scale effects, experience effects...
Customer cost structure
Industry operating norms
Industry financial norms
Main changes over time
Factors of success by segment
Factors of success by element of customer's value added (R&D, production, purchasing, marketing, distribution...)
Unmet client needs
New sources of differentiation, new technologies, new distribution systems, Opportunities to reduce costs
...
MULTIPLE SOURCES OF INFORMATION
Internal marketing / competitive information (Product dpt, Sales dpt, Finance dpt...)
Industry reports and analysis (eg. financial analyst reports, market surveys, consultants...)
On-line data base (CAC 40, Dow Jones,...)
Press articles - industry magazines - company magazines
Industry associations - conferences and conventions
Interview of your customer
Interview of other customers
Example of Industry Overview
Cable Television (CATV)
US CABLE TELEVISION INDUSTRY ECONOMICS
Number of systems
Total basic subscribers (K)
Household penetration (%)
Total homes passed (K)
Homes passed as % of TV households (%)
Total plant miles (K)
Total industry revenue ($B)
Average monthly revenue pr subscriber ($)
(1)
(2)
(1) As of January 1, 1991
(2) Includes Ad revenue
1991
10,704
56,300
87,900
1,050
Even though . CATV industry is small compared to telephone
industry, approximately 95% of homes are passed by CATV
GROWTH IN NUMBER OF SUBSCRIBERS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
CAGR-Cable
subscribers
1986-90
1991-95
%
%
Cable
subscribers
TV
Households
Source : Paine webber
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Million
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991(E)
1992(F)
1993(F)
1994(F)
1995(F)
SLOWER GROWTH EXPECTED ALSO IN REVENUE PER SUBSCRIBER
CATV companies counting on PPV(1) and other services
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
($)
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
(E)
1992
(F)
1993
(F)
1994
(F)
1995
(F)
1996
(F)
Basic
Pay
PPV
Other
Total
-
-
-
-
CAGR (%)
1986-90
1991-96
Basic
Pay
PPV
Other
Total
Congressional pressure to slow the growth in basic prices
CD : Pay per view
Monthly revenue per subscriber
BASIC PROGRAMMING COSTS GROWING FASTER THAN REVENUES
Operators see no relief on the horizon from rapid growth in basic program fees
Several have forecasted 10-20% revenue increase over each of the next 3-5 years based on increases written into existing contracts and on plans to add new services to the basic packages
To control cost, some operators have put a freeze on adding new basic services, or have negotiated lower fees with networks that rank poorly in satisfaction surveys
1983
1984
1985
1989
1990
1991
1992
1986
1987
1988
0
50
100
150
200
250
Average revenue
from basic
service/
subscriber/
year ($)
0
1
2
3
Average license
fees/subscriber/
month ($)
Source : Cable TV programming, march 1992
Revenues
Programming
costs
TO SUSTAIN HIGH PROFITABILITY, CATV FIRMS HAVE TO INCREASE SALES TO ABSORB THEIR FIXED COSTS
(1) BCG estimates
CATV firms having to bear heavy
infrastructure costs …
… Sales growth is the way to increase profits
Estimated cost structure (% of sales)
Infrastructure cost
License fees
Sales/marketing/admin
Net result
60%
15%
20%
5%
Increasing sales to leverage
fixed costs is key
Sales
Infrastructure cost
Other costs
Profit
Actual
Time
$
+ 30% in sales
equals to
+ 300% in profit(1)
FUTURE GROWTH FOR CABLE INDUSTRY IS LIKELY TO COME FROM NEW SERVICES
Infrastructure Investment Required
Revenue from basic and premium cable services are growing at a moderate rate
Pressure from Congress to moderate increase in basic cable service price
Slow growth in premium cable service due to competition from video cassettes and PPV
Pricing growth is expected to result from expanded channel capacity and the increased customization of service
PPV today and video-on-demand in the future ® addressability
Two-way interactive video service (. home shopping) ® two way capability
Telecommunications ® two way capability ; switching
CATV companies must invest in their infrastructure in order to fully realize revenue potential in PPV and other services
TO DEVELOP NEW SERVICES THE CABLE INDUSTRY HAS SEVERAL KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITY GAPS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
No experience with hardware and dynamics of switching
No experience in marketing telecom services
"What's important to telecom customers ?"
Knowledge of network reliability methods may be low
Need to increase service and responsiveness levels
Billing and tracking systems are weak
"Upstart interexchange carriers MCI and Sprint took years to get a handle on billing problems" - Telephony
But may be built up as PPV services develop
Partnering to address
Building internally
CATV INDUSTRY EVOLUTIONS HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON SUPPLIERS KEY SUCCESS FACTORS
Growth in traditional CATV is slowing. In order to fill network capacity CATV companies need to develop new products
Customized CATV services
Interactive services
Telecom (telephony)
CATV industry suppliers have to adapt their offer to their customers' need change
Low potential on sales of additional capacity
High potential in offering network upgrades
Two way technology is becoming key -Switching technology
Partnership opportunities between CATV companies and Telecom equipment suppliers exist, since CATV firms have technological gaps in telecommunication to fill. This is the opportunity to develop new services
PARTNERSHIPS MAY HELP CATV COMPANIES OVERCOME THEIR KNOWLEDGE GAPS
Illustrations
Gap
Switching
Marketing / New products
Partnership to address gap
• TCI/Cox ownership of Teleport
TCI wide area network for DEC employees
Comcast acquisition of Philadelphia cellular franchise
Time Warner and IBM partnership for interactive TV
Cox PCN test in San Diego
"Everyone of the tests being done right now is not about technology. They're about identifying what consumers will do with products and where markets exist" - Paine Webber
TCI and McCaw : Cable based PCN system in Oregon
UAE (part of TCI) and US West : Business POTS in UK
TCI, AT&T, : enhanced pay-per-view and movie on demand
TCI and MCI : telephony over coax cable
AGENDA
Analyzing your market
Getting an overview of the industry
Getting an overview of the company
Analyzing competition
Understanding the customers
WHY CREATING A COMPANY OVERVIEW ?
The purpose of creating a company overview is to answer the two following questions
How is the company positioned within the industry ?
How is the company doing today versus the past ?
Key elements of a company overview are
Main activities, revenues, profit and growth
Business objectives and strategy
Market and customer needs coverage
Financial performance (historical, vs industry)
Operational performance (historical, vs industry)
Organizational structure
Recent events and changes
Summary of strengths and weaknesses
Account history
Issues list and opportunities
KEY ELEMENTS OF A COMPANY OVERVIEW (I)
Key elements
Main activities, revenues, profit and growth
Business objectives and strategy
Market and customer needs coverage
Financial performance
Description of analyses
Revenues and profit over time by activity
Identification of main sources of revenues and profit
Description of activities - highlight of activities where our products / services are used
Parent company and main shareholders
Apparent strategy by activity
Change over time
Consistency with the KFS in the industry
Consistency with position vs the industry (market share, overall size...)
Product and service offering
Match with customer needs (cf industry overview)
Highlight gaps between offer and demand
Highlight customer satisfaction or dissatisfaction
Revenues and profits vs the industry
Growth vs the industry
Basic financial ratio analysis (ROS, ROI...) and benchmarking vs the industry
Highlight of performance issues
KEY ELEMENTS OF A COMPANY OVERVIEW (II)
Key elements
Operational performance
Organizational structure
Recent events and changes
Description of analyses
Performance against industry operating benchmarks
Highlight of performance issues
Analysis of cost structure
Part of our product / service in the cost structure
Contribution of our product / service in the company operating performance
Organization chart
Inconsistency between organization and business objectives / strategy
Benchmark vs industry
Main change in the company history (new technology, new shareholders, acquisitions...)
Impact on financial and operational performance
Impact on organization
KEY ELEMENTS OF A COMPANY OVERVIEW (III)
Key elements
Summary of strengths and weaknesses
Account history
Issues list and opportunities
Description of analysis
Review of strengths and weaknesses
Vs KFS in the industry
Using all previous analysis
Sales, return and share of account business over time
Significant relationship events (lost and gained offers...)
Type of information exchange
Current state of relationship
Issues and opportunities as evidenced by all above analyses
For company overview, use same sources of information as for industry overview
Example of Company Overview
New York Telephone
NEW YORK TELEPHONE (NYT)
NYT is a fully owned subsidiary of Nynex. Nynex consists of the Regional Bell Operating Companies for New York (city + state), Massachusetts , New Hampshire, Rhode Islands, Vermont and parts of Connecticut
NYT is the local network operator in New York
Nynex has 15,5 M. customers, revenues of US$ in 1993 and a net margin of 10%
Because of deregulation, the competitive environment is changing drastically. Competition starts to make inroads into a historically monopolistic market, threatening therefore Nynex (and NYT's) financial position
NYNEX CORP FINANCIAL SITUATION OVERTIME
Sales (Mio $)
Net profit (Mio $)
Margin
Long term debt
1989
,00
,5
8,6%
40,8%
1990
,0
,1
8,9%
43,2%
1991
,0
,8
8,7%
42,8%
1992
,0
,0
10,0%
43,0%
1993
,0
,0
10,3%
41,5%
Financial situation improving but still average vs industry
Major threats on sales and margins from new competitive entry
FIXED COSTS ARE PREDOMINANT, FEW COSTS VARY WITH VOLUME
Source: BCG Analysis
gr3
Variable
Fixed
~30%
~70%
9%
11%
10%
Under Today’s
Cost Structure
Cost Behavior
Driver
Cost Example
Vary Indirectly with Business Volume
Vary directly with
business volume
Vary directly with
work volume
Fixed
•
•
•
Trouble reports
In Moves/churn
Customer contacts
•
•
•
Maintenance/repair
Maintenance/repair
Provisioning
Rearrangement
Bus. office expense
Engineering
Finance
Legal
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Infrastructure
Development
•
•
WITH HIGH FIXED COSTS, EARNINGS ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO REVENUE EROSION - EVEN WITH PRODUCTIVITY GAINS
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
gr12
No Efficiency Gains (max)
Bus Plan
Breakthrough (min)
No Efficiency
Gains
Bus Plan
Gains
Breakthrough
Gains
+
91
Financials
($B)
Note: Shaded area represents range of scenarios
2001 Projected Financials at % Annual Market Growth – Momentum Range
91 Revenue
Range
91 Cost
Range
91 Pre-tax Earnings
CONCENTRATED GEOGRAPHIC AREAS ARE EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE FOR NYT, BUT ALSO FOR A TARGETED ATTACK BY A NEW COMPETITOR
Geographic concentration of revenue is significant…
• 77% of all revenues in the Metro LATA areas
• 40% of business access and usage in Manhattan and Long Island
• 75% of residence usage in the non-Manhattan boroughs (BQB, SI, LI)
…access line density is high in these revenue generating areas…
…both of which leave NYT vulnerable to a geographically targeted attack based on available technology (CATV)
COMPETITIVE TARGETS : ATTRACTIVE AREAS IN TERMS OF TOTAL REVENUE ARE IN THE UPPER RIGHT HAND CORNER
BUT THE LESS REVENUE-GENERATED AREAS RECEIVE A DISPROPORTIONATE SHARE OF CAPITAL
(1) Average of three years of capex + annual revenue
Note : revenue does not include carrier
Source : NYT engineering, BCG analysis
ALSO, A SMALL NUMBER OF ACCOUNTS GENERATE A LARGE PART OF ATTRACTIVE REVENUES FOR NYT (I)
Concentration of revenue is greatest by account, .,
• Less than 5% of business accounts generate over 50% of revenue
• 25% of downstate residences generate over 90% of inter-region usage revenue
- most of these in BQB and Long Island
Leaving NYT even more vulnerable to attack…
It is an imperative that we understand these accounts (who, where, relative profitability) to protect the revenue base
• Proactive marketing
• Focused investment
ALSO, A SMALL NUMBER OF ACCOUNTS GENERATE A LARGE PART OF ATTRACTIVE REVENUES FOR NYT (II)
(1) Interregion revenue only
(2) Toll revenue only
Source : NYT marketing
Customers
Revenue
0
25
50
75
100
Customers
Revenue
0
25
50
75
100
Downstate Inter-region Calls
Upstate Toll Calls
(1)
(2)
25%
91%
30%
85%
(%)
(%)
gr17
HIGHLIGHTS OF OVERVIEW
Revenues will erode substantially (over $2B at stake)
Loss of business will not lead to corresponding cost reduction (a large portion of costs do not vary with business volume)
Dramatic additional cost reduction will be required to preserve earnings (over $2B at stake)
Fundamentally changing what (and how) work is done
Regulatory ambiguity will contribute to the revenue erosion by opening the attractive markets to others, while making NYT disproportionately fund the public policy agenda (half of the $2B revenue swing at stake)
Affecting revenues, expenses and capital
Concentration of revenues by region and customer leaves NYT especially vulnerable to competition
Currently known competitive technologies will be economically viable and contribute to the revenue erosion, notably CATV ($500M- $900M at risk from CATV alone)
POSSIBLE ACTIONS FOR NYT AND CONSEQUENCE FOR EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS
Full reengineering of the company (underway)
Fundamentally changing how the company works to improve dramatically performance
Development of new revenue opportunities for the long term
New voice, data, video services
Better customer service standards (field service, repairs, lead time for connections...)
Development of a "customer oriented" strategy and acquisition of marketing tools
to concentrate efforts on "high revenue" regions and customers
Suppliers can help on the two first points
• Joint reengineering approach specifically for network planning & provisioning
• Development of new products and services
AGENDA
Analyzing your market
Getting an overview of the industry
Getting an overview of the company
Analyzing competition
Understanding the customers
WHY CREATE A COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW ?
The purpose of a competitive overview is to
Understand drivers of competition -current and potential
Understand how the company is performing versus its competitors
Identify areas of competitive risk for the customer
Add focus to opportunities for competitive improvement through the Discovery process
Define who are its competitors - Ask yourself
Who does the customer consider a direct competitor ? An indirect competitor ?
Who are potential new competitors ? What drives new competition
Against what companies does the customer compare its business and service performance ?
Have you ever helped the customer think about the competition ? How ?
KEY ELEMENTS OF A COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
Current and emerging sources of competition
Derived from the KFS in the industry
Identification of main competitors
For each main competitor
Simplified "company overview"
Benchmarking of customer vs competitors
Attempting to explain significant differences
focusing on areas where Alcatel RTS can help
Summary : likely impact of competitive forces on customer
Example of competitive overview
European Telecom Operator
BECAUSE OF DEREGULATION, COMPETITIVE THREATS IN EUROPE ARE EMERGING NOT ONLY FROM TRADITIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION OPERATORS
Potential competitors
International state owned operators
International or local private operators
Service providers (AIR-time resellers)
Information technology company
Telecommunication equipment manufacturer
Information technology equipment manufacturer
Cable TV operator
Utility (Water, electricity)
Typical companies
FT, SIP, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom
ATT, BT, SFR, Infonet, BMW
Cell corp, US link...
EDS, GSI,...
Alcatel, ATT, Siemens
IBM, DEC, MP
Time warner, Coditel
CGE, Lyonnaise des Eaux, EDF
However for evaluating the performance of our Euro Telco, a benchmarking limited to the following companies is more than sufficient
"Best practice" Telco operator in the world (private or public)
Direct European competitors
KEY FACTORS OF SUCCESS IN THE TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY
Intensive R&D policy, use of joint development to lower costs
Network provisioning allowing introduction of new products / services required by customers
Strong customer focus (reduction of leadtimes, reactivity, flexibility)
Sophisticated sales and marketing policy adapted to every customer segment
Operational cost containment
Improvement of HR competences by training and outside recruiting
1
2
3
4
5
6
R&D PERFORMANCE BENCHMARKING
Time to market
# of new product introduction / year
R&D budget / revenues
% of joint developments in R&D budget
Performance criteria
Illustration : recent products introduction
* Introduction by FT
Operator B - New products introduction delays vs France Telecom
Source : Aspémar, BCG analysis
1980
85
90
93
Cordless
France Telecom
Voice Mail
France Telecom
Mobile GSM
France Telecom
Signal d'appel
France Telecom
Year
*
*
*
*
95
INFRASTRUCTURE DEPLOYMENT PERFORMANCE
Illustration : Spending per new line
Network penetration /inhabitant
Number of new lines / year
Investments / lines
Sales / customer / line
Performance criteria
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
NTT (90 -92)
Telec. Eireann
DBP
FT
PTT-NL
BT
SNET (90-93)
Tele DK
PTT-NL
US West (90-92)
SIP
FT
Telec. Eireann
Line demand growth
Spending per new line (index)
COMMERCIAL AND SERVICE PERFORMANCE
Service disturbance / line / year
Lead time for a new connection
Lead time for disturbance repair
Service response time (for inquiries)
# of complaints / line / year
Tariff / line / usage / distance
Illustration : service lead times for connection,
inquiries and disturbances
Initial connection
Inquiries
Disturbances
B
Telco US
B
British Telecom
Telco US
B
Telco US
France Telecom
British Telecom
80% within 2 to 3 weeks
95% within 3 days
16% of incoming calls addressed in less than 2 mn
90% of incoming calls addressed in less than 15 sec
80% of incoming calls addressed in less than 20 sec
97% repaired within 7 days
91% repaired the same day for business user
83% repaired in 2 days for residential user
93% repaired within 1 day
98% repaired within 2 days
Performance criteria
Service
Operator
Performance
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Illustration : Return on capital employed
Performance criteria
Net cash flow
Cash flow / capital employed
Net operational profit / Revenue
Profit / segment of client / product return on capital employed
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
0
50
100
150
2 215
Network density
(# line / km2)
ROCE (%)
Mercury
Australia Telec (91)
MCI
Sprint
Ameritech
Bell Atlantic
SNET
NTT
Sing.
Telec.
BT
FT
DBP
Telec. DK
Telefonica
Telia
SW Bell
SW Bell
Cincin Bell
B
Telec. Eireann
New Zealand Telec
HUMAN RESOURCES PERFORMANCE (I)
Illustration : number of employees in Sales Force
for the corporate segment in company B
# of lines / employees
Training budget / revenue
Revenue / employee
% of R&D employees / total # of employees
% of commercial
Company
B
ATT
BT
MCI
FT
Unisource
US Sprint
KDP
DBP Telekom
Total employees
600
41
13
7
8
7
5
3
# of commercial
16
> 15
na.
6
3
2
3
na.
na.
Operator B is underdeveloped
for the corporate segment
Performance criteria
HUMAN RESOURCES PERFORMANCE (II)
Illustration : clear overstaffing
# lines /employee
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Network growth
(%) 1988 - 92
US West (95)
Pac. Tel. (95)
NTT (2003)
Bell Atlantic (90-92)
Ameritech
Pac. Telesis
NTT (90 - 92)
US West (90 - 92)
DBT (97)
DBT
STET
Telefonica
Telec Eireann
Australia Telec. (90-92)
B
FT
PTT-NL
Nynex (90-92)
BT
Tella (92)
Tele DK
BT (95)
SNET (90-93)
BENCHMARKING COMPETITORS REVEALS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUPPLIERS
Delay in recent product introduction implies for a supplier
A proactive approach to new equipment offers
The need to offer short lead and response time
Relative underinvestment per new line implies a need for
Substantial investment and supply of new equipments (higher capacity…)
A poor service level implies a need for
New product / services improving operator's service level
Outsourcing certain services (service providers, consultants)
A below average productivity implies a need for
New equipments reducing operating and maintenance cost
Outsourcing certain tasks (control, operation, maintenance…)
Totally redesigning certain operator's processes
AGENDA
Analyzing your market
Getting an overview of the industry
Getting an overview of the company
Analyzing competition
Understanding the customers
