ඣ০ඣඌ ֻ40ज 2009୍ֻ1௹ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌ࣮高兴夫,胡程顺(天津大学水利水电工程系,天津 300072)ᅋ ေ:确定型施工进度管理S型曲线因与实际施工过程很难相符而在应用中受到一定限制b将系统仿真技术与S型曲线相结合,提出了基于仿真的施工进度管理S型曲线b首先论述了施工过程仿真的原理及仿真建模方法,构建CPM层工序模型和CYCLONE层单元模型,进行工程项目的网络进度计划分析b通过多次对施工系统仿真所得结果绘制出一组S型曲线簇,即非确定型S型曲线,并与实际施工进度进行比较分析,以当前施工进度为起点,对后续工程进行施工仿真,可以获得未完工程的施工工期及费用,由此进行施工进度实时预测与控制b实例证明,此种方法切实有效,值得推广bܱՍ:施工进度管理;S型曲线;系统仿真;施工费用ᇏٳোݼ:TP391 9+TV51 ໓ངѓ്:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1000 0860(2009)01 0084 06Studyonsimulation basedS curveforconstructionprocesscontrolGAOXing fu,HUCheng shun(DepartmentofWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineering,TianjinUniversity,Tianjin 300072,China)Abstract:ThedefinedS curveforconstructionprocesscontrolissomewhatlimitedintheapplication,asitcannotaccordwiththeactualconstructionprocess Asimulation basedS curveforconstructioncontrolisputforwardhereinincombinationofboththesystemsimulationtechniqueandtheS curveconcerned;forwhichtheprincipleofconstructionprocesssimulationandthesimulationmodelingmethodarefirstlydiscussedandthemodelsforcontrollayer(CPMlayer)andimplementationlayer(CY CLONElayer)aremade,andthentheconstructionnetworkscheduleofprojectisanalyzedaswell AgroupofS curvefamilies,i e undefinedS curves,isdrawnthroughthesimulationsmadeonconstructionsystemformanytimes,andfurthermore,iscom parativelyanalyzedwiththeactualconstructionprocess Onthisbasis,Theconstructionperiodandcostofanuncompletedpro jectcanbeobtainedbythesimulationonthesubsequentprojectwiththestartofthecurrentconstructionprocess,bywhichthereal timepredictionandcontroloftheconstructionprocesscanbecarriedout Therelevantactualcaseshowsthatthismethodisnotonlyeffectiveandefficient,butalsodeservedtobepopularized Keywords:constructionprocesscontro;lS curve;systematicsimulation;constructioncost[1~3] S౷ཌିܔౢԣֹ૭ඍ၂۱۽ӱཛଢሹ֥ӱࣉ؇ԛགྷ ߁ གྷའbၹՎ,ࡼ༢ٟᆇඌაS࠹߃ࣉ؇აሹ֥ൌ࠽ࣉ؇౦ঃ,ିܔሙಒֹّ႘၂۱౷ཌཌྷࢲކ,ิԛਔࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇S౷ཌ۽ӱཛଢᇏۄᇶေ۽ӱཛଢ֥ᄅ࠹߃ބൌ࠽ࣉ؇่ܵٚمbѩၛ֒భീ۽ࣉ؇ູఏׄ,ؓު࿃۽ӱࣉྙ,ିܔᆰֹܴܙଖ၂ൈࡗଽൌ࠽ࣉ؇ა࠹߃ࣉྛീ۽ٟᆇ,ࠆ౼ໃປ۽ӱ֥ീ۽۽௹ࠣٮႨ,ၛՎ؇֥ҵၳၛࠣॖି֥ൌ࠽ປ۽ರ௹ ,ᆃ൞ఃࣉ؇࠹߃і෮҂֥ࠣbაሹุ۽ӱീ۽ܱཌਫ਼aٳ൬۠ರ௹:2008 04 01ཛ۽ӱࣉ؇ོཌཌྷࢲކ,ьॖӮۿֹ॥ᇅ۽ӱീ۽ࠎࣁཛଢ:ݓࡅሱಖ॓࿐ࠎࣁaؽฅඣषؿႵཋ܄ඳᨯࡾඣࣉ؇षؿ৳ކ࣮ࠎࣁ(50539120);ݓࡅᇗׄࠎԤ࣮ؿᅚ࠹,ಒЌᄝކ۽௹ଽປӮಆ҆ᅱѓ۽ӱbᄝࡹᇽ۽ӱീ۽ݖӱᇏ,ႮႿ؟ᇕၹ֥႕ཙა߃( 973 ࠹߃)ሧᇹ(2007CB714101);ݓࡅࢭԛౝ୍॓࿐ࠎࣁ(50525927)bۄಠ,ӈӈ֝ᇁൌ࠽ࣉ؇ა࠹߃ࣉ؇҂໖ކ,֤۽ቔᆀࡥࢺ:ۚྖڏ(1963!),ଳ,ۚࠩ۽ӱഽ,Ѱൖ࣮ളb84WaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineeringVol 40No 1
ۚྖڏ,֩∀ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌ࣮ࣉྛീ۽ࣉ؇ൌൈყҩა॥ᇅb࠽ീ۽֞djൈၘປӮਔሹ۽ӱpj۱Ϥٳб,ఃൌ࠽ࣉ؇(ׄA)ᄝ࠹߃ࣉ؇ཌᆭഈ,іૼ۽ӱࣉ؇ӑభb1 确定型S型曲线ՖAׄቔඣཌࢌ࠹߃ࣉ؇ཌႿBׄ,Bׄ෮ؓႋࡹᇽ۽ӱ֥ീ۽หׄ,၂Ϯ൞۽ӱषބࢲඏൈ֥۽ቔ฿ඔູtj,ᄵAაBᆭࡗ֥एູࠧൌ࠽ა࠹ೆ֥ሧჷਈࢠഒ,طᇏࡗൈ؍֥ೆཌྷؓࠢᇏ,ࠧ߃֥ࣉ؇ொҵ(TimeVariance,TV),ࠧ:TV=tj-djbభ௹ބު௹ࣉᅚߏત,طᇏ௹ࣉᅚ؇ޓॹbࡼປӮՖ1ᇏ္ॖࣉྛൌ࠽ٮႨა࠹߃ሧ֥ொҵٳ֥۽ӱਈෛൈࡗࣉྛࠒ,ၹఃӯౠོ֥ S ሑطФ༅bׄEູീ۽ᇀֻdjൈ֥ൌ࠽࠹ٮႨcj,ః໊ଁູS౷ཌ[4]bᇂंႿ࠹߃ሧ౷ཌᆭഈbࣇՎߎ҂ିקൌ࠽აՖඔ࿐ܴׄٳ༅,ऎႵؓӫྟ֥S౷ཌॖႨᆞ࠹߃֥ٮႨொҵbՖBׄቔԼᆰཌࢌ࠹߃ሧ౷ཌ༿ݦඔy= sintіൕ,ൔᇏູyၹэਈ,іൕീ۽ႿC,ׄCׄ෮ؓႋ֥vjູࠧປӮ۽ӱࣉ؇pj۱ϤٳༀປӮਈ(%);tູሱэਈ,іൕປӮༀൈࡗ; б֥࠹߃ሧحbႿ൞ՖCׄቔඣཌࢌҰཌႿDູҕඔ,ّ႘ھീ۽ؒଽᄝᇉބग़ܴߌ֥႕,ׄᄵDაEᆭࡗ֥Ӊ؇ູࠧൌ࠽ٮႨა࠹߃ሧ֥ཙ,Վԩ౼ =1,ᄵഈൔࣜݖ၂༢ਙྙэߐ[5],ٮႨொҵ(CostVariance,CV),ࠧ:CV=vj-cjbॖ֤ԛS౷ཌ֥၂Ϯඔ࿐ଆіղྙൔႿ൞ሸކၛഈࣉ؇ொҵაٮႨொҵ֥ٳ༅ॖᆩ,1t1ؓႋႿഈᇏ֥Ұರ௹dj,ൌ࠽۽௹б࠹߃ิభy=sin- +1(1)2T2TV۱۽ቔರ,ൌ࠽ٮႨб࠹߃ሧࡨഒCVbൔᇏ,Tູ۽ӱሹ۽௹bಖط,ൌ࠽֥ࡹᇽ۽ӱീ۽ݖӱ൞گᄖ؟э,֥S౷ཌႵ؟ᇕіགྷྙൔ,ሹุটඪ,ॖ߃ၛഈࢺക֥౷ཌၛࠣӈ֥႓֤ᆴ౷ཌन൞ၛ၂ᇕಒٳູಒקބ٤ಒקਆնোb෮໌ಒקS౷ཌקྟ֥ٚمট૭ඍൌ࠽ീ۽ݖӱb൙ൌഈ,ൌ࠽֥ീ൞ᆷؓႋଖ৫эਈ֥หקᆴ,ཌྷႋэਈ(ೂ۽௹a۽ݖӱޓປಆაᆃᇕಒקྟ֥S౷ཌཌྷژ,ၹٮႨaࣉ؇֩)္൞၂ಒקᆴ,ӈ֥ೂ႓֤ᆴ౷Վ,ఃႋႨ൳֞ਔ၂קཋᇅbཌ,ط٤ಒקS౷ཌؓႋ֥ಏ൞၂۱ٳ,҃๙ӈᄝଖ၂ٓຶଽэ߄,෮ၛؓႋఃS౷ཌ൞၂Їݣഈ2 施工过程仿真与进度分析༯ຓЇཌ֥S౷ཌ՛b2 1 ീ۽ݖӱٟᆇჰ໓ᇏࢺക֥۽௹aٮႨაࣉ؇ࠢӮ֥S౷ཌၛ۽ӱീ۽༢ॖၛुቔࣇᄝ֥ൈࡗׄؿള๋۽௹ູޘቕѓ,ٳљၛࣉ؇ބٮႨູሺቕѓ,ೂ1ᄁྟэ߄֥༢,ၹطॖၛቔູ༢ࣉྛٟᆇ෮ൕbູਔࡥ߄,ࣉ؇~۽௹౷ཌ߂Ӯਔᆰཌ,൙ൌ࣮bᄝ۽ӱീ۽༢ٟᆇᇏ,๙ӈҐႨܥקᄹਈൈࡗഈ,࠹֥ࣉ؇ෛ۽௹э߄္൞S౷ཌbࣉمটࣉٟᆇൈᇒ,Ⴕ2۱ٟᆇᇒ!!!ಆӱٟᆇᇒބЧֹٟᆇᇒbീ۽ٟᆇݖӱࣼ൞ਆᇕٟᆇൈᇒ҂؎ֹࣉބࢌ֥ݖӱb൮༵༢ࣉಆӱٟᆇᇒ,֒ҩ֞Ⴕ ٟᆇ۽ष ൙ࡱؿളൈ,ಆӱٟᆇᇒЌ֒ൈ֥ሑ,ಖުࡼ॥ᇅಃࢌ۳۽Ҫٟᆇଆ,ఓ֥ЧֹٟᆇᇒbЧֹٟᆇᇒ္ҐႨൈࡗ҄Ӊمࣉ,ၛ۽ሙСീ۽֥ሑቔູԚሑ,ၛषീ۽֥ൈख़ቔູЧֹٟᆇᇒ֥ਬׄbՖھׄष,ཟభࣉ၂۱ൈࡗ҄Ӊ,ಖުؓ۽ଆᇏ֥෮Ⴕࢫׄࣉྛೡ૭,ҩ൞ڎႵડቀ่ࡱ֥ࠃؿള,ൈ۵ሶ۲ᇕሧჷ֥Ⴈ౦ঃ,ೂݔႵࠃؿള,ᄵཌྷႋֹڿэ༢ሑ,1 ۽௹aٮႨაࣉ؇ࠢӮ֥S౷ཌ࠹۲ᇕሧჷ֥Ⴈൈࡗࠇॢ༽ൈࡗbᇗگഈඍቔمᆰ֞ھ۽ࢲඏ,ѩϜ॥ᇅಃْ߭۳ಆӱٟᆇᇒbಖ1ᇏS౷ཌູࠧ࠹߃ሧ౷ཌ,ᆰཌູ࠹߃ުಆӱٟᆇᇒ࿃ࣉ,ᇗگഈඍݖӱ,ᆰ֞ᆜ۱۽ࣉ؇bഡקҰರ௹ູdj,ྴՙཌູീ۽ᇀҰರ௹ӱࢲඏbᆭުٟؓᆇࢲݔࣉྛ۲ᇕٳ༅a࠹ෘაႪdjൈ֥ൌ࠽ٮႨ౷ཌࠣൌ࠽ࣉ؇bՖᇏॖᆩ,ൌ߄,ѩൻԛࣉ؇࠹߃aޘ֡aܱਫ਼ཌaീ۽఼ඣ০ඣඌ ֻ40ज 2009୍ֻ1௹85
ۚྖڏ,֩∀ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌ࣮؇aീ۽఼؇ۚڂ௹aሧჷ০Ⴈੱ֩ࢲݔ[6]bمᄝંഈܙ࠹ԛຩ࠹߃֥ປӮൈࡗbᆃҐႨ2 2 ീ۽ݖӱٟᆇࡹଆٚمหवઌٟᆇනམ,ؓᆜ۱ീ۽ຩࣉྛ؟Ցٟᆇ,ࣜؓႿ၂۱گᄖ֥۽ӱീ۽༢ط,ॖࡼఃٳࢳݖ࠹֤֞ീ۽۽௹aປ۽ۀੱaܱ۽֩ྐ༏bູཌྷؓࡥֆބ৫֥ሰ༢,طሰ༢ࡗ֥ཌྷ৳༢҂ႿPERTҐႨᆴܙ࠹۽௹֥ٚم,ᆃҐބ႕ཙॖᄝሰ༢ଆࡗഡᇂཌྷႋᯒކࢤ१طࡆၛླྀႨീ۽ݖӱٟᆇࠆ֤۽௹֥࠹ඔऌ,ಖުؓט,ᆃဢॖࡼ۲۱ሰଆࢤఏটطܒӮᆜุ༢ଆ࠹ඔऌࣉྛކ؎ۀੱٳ҃ো,ቋުႨቋնරಖbᆌؓ҂֥ླေॖၛ࿊౼҂֥ҪՑটࡹ৫ٟᆇمܙ࠹ٳ҃ҕඔbႮႿٟᆇ࠹ෘ൞๙ݖൻೆቋࠎЧ֥ଆ,Ч໓ࡼ۽ӱീ۽༢֥ٟᆇଆ߃ٳӮ2۱Ҫᄎྛҕඔ(ೂഡСҕඔ֩)ট࠹ෘ۽֥ӻ࿃ൈࡗ,Ց:॥ᇅҪଆ(CPMҪ۽ଆ)ބൌീҪଆࢳथਔؓᆜ۱۽ӻ࿃ൈࡗႿܙෘ֥໙,ีѩ۷(CYCLONEҪֆჭଆ)bCYCLONEҪֆჭଆܒࡆᆇൌॖौbऎุ҄ᇧೂ༯bӮCPMҪ۽ଆ,CPMҪ۽ଆܒӮᆜุ༢(1)ࠆ౼࠹ඔऌb๙ݖ؟Ցീ۽ٟᆇ࠹ෘ,ॖଆb০ႨCPMຩҪॖၛࣉྛᆜ۱۽ӱཛଢ֥ࣉ֤֞۽i֥၂ቆ۽௹֥ܴҩᆴ12(Ti,Ti,#n,Ti)b؇࠹߃ٳ༅,০ႨCYCLONEҪٟᆇٳ༅۽ӱ֥ീ۽(2)ಒקۀੱٳ҃োbᄝ؎ෛࠏэਈ֥ۀੱ۽௹,ሧჷ০Ⴈੱ֩౦ঃbٳ҃ൈ,൮༵ॖؓھཛࠃ֥ൌ࠽ଽಸބᄝ༢ᇏ֥۴ऌീ۽ቔြࠣઆܱࠠ༢,ࡼ۲ᇕࢫׄႨ൏ཌ৵ቔႨটቓקྟ؎,ಒקఃॖିඋႿଧࠫᇕٳ҃োࢤఏট,ѩࡆೆ॥ᇅࠏᇅ,Ֆطܒᄯԛٟᆇ۽ଆ,ஆԢ၂ུૼཁ҂ॖି֥ۀੱٳ҃,ၛ෪ཬ࿊ᄴٓটіղൌ࠽ീ۽ݖӱbࡹ৫ٟᆇ۽ଆൈ,൮༵ႋຶbႮٳ҃ࡌഡބҕඔ࠹ෘ෮۳ԛ֥ࢲݔაܴҩඔऌૼಒ۽ീ۽ݖӱᇏႵଧུࠃၛࠣ۲ࠃᆭࡗ֥આٳ҃ᆭࡗсקթᄝ၂קӱ؇֥ҵၳ,ၹطႵсေקܱࠠ༢aࠃࣉྛ෮ླ֥ੀඣֆჭaଆᇏ෮ླ֥۲ࡌഡٳ֥҃ॖྐ؇,ࠧקაܴҩඔऌ֥ކႪ؇ᇕҕඔ;ಖުႮଆ֥ቆӮ҆ٳࡹ৫ఏԚଆbࡹ൞ڎղ֞ॖၛФࢤ൳֥ӱ؇bଆݖӱ൞၂۱ّگྩڿ֥ݖӱ,֒෮ࡹଆაൌ࠽༢(3)ಒקٳ҃ҕඔbࠞնරಖܙ࠹൞ࡹ৫ᄝࠞնࠎЧཌྷژൈູቋު֥ٟᆇ۽ଆb2ູႨ࿖ߌරಖჰࠎԤഈ֥၂۱࠹ٚمbЧ໓ᄝಒקਔ۽ຩࢫׄ૭ඍ֥ᇶุ۽ӱָҪ۽ଆb۽௹֥ٳ҃ো,ުႨھٚمಒקٳ֥҃ҕඔbؓႿᆞٳ,҃ఃनᆴ ބٚҵ!2֥ࠞնරಖܙ࠹ਈٳљ൞ဢЧनᆴX ބဢЧؽࢨᇏྏइS!2bࣉྛหवઌٟᆇൈ,Ⴈ࠹ෘࠏູૄ۱۽οఃෛࠏٳ҃োބٳ҃ҕඔӁള၂۱ෛࠏඔቔູ۽۽௹,ಖުႨຩ࠹߃ൈࡗҕඔ࠹ෘٚم֤ሹ۽௹a۲۽֥ष۽ൈࡗބࢲඏൈࡗ֩ҕඔb๙ݖ؟Ցٟᆇބ࠹ٳ༅,ॖၛ֤֞ീ۽۽௹ބ۲ܱׄ۽௹֥2࠹หྟb Ⴈ࿖ߌຩࢫׄ૭ඍ֥ᇶุ۽ӱָҪ۽ଆ2 3 ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ຩ࠹߃ࣉ؇ٳ༅3 基于仿真的施工进度管理S型曲线ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ຩ࠹߃ࣉ؇ٳ༅۴ऌീ۽ݖӱᄝൌ࠽֥ࡹᇽ۽ӱീ۽ᇏ,ࣉ؇ສສ۷؟ֹіགྷٟᆇ࠹ෘॖၛಒקࡹᇽീ۽ݖӱ۲۽֥ӻ࿃ൈࡗ,ູປӮ۽ӱሹਈ֥Ϥٳб,ط҂൞ൈࡗປӮ֥؟ഒbѩ๙ݖ؟Ցٟᆇ֤֞۲۽ӻ࿃ൈࡗ֥؟ቆܴҩᆴ,ၹՎ,ࠎႿࣉ؇֥S౷ཌၛປӮ۽ӱሹਈ֥Ϥٳ๙ݖ࠹ٳ༅aކႪ؇ဒটಒקෛࠏٳ҃োaб,ࠧࣉ؇ູ৫эਈ,۽ӱ֥۽௹აٮႨुӮ൞ෛनᆴaٚҵ֩ऎุҕඔ[7]bؓ၂ུࡥֆ֥۽ቔॖၛοࣉ؇э߄֥эਈbᆃဢ,๙ݖ࠹࠹߃აൌ࠽ປӮ֥ൌ۽ӱਈa۽ӱࣜဒބႵܱקحܙෘটಒק۽ӻ۽ӱϤٳбၛࠣཌྷႋ֥ٮႨაൈࡗ,ᇅS౷ཌ,࿃ൈࡗ,ೂࠁୠ৫ଆaగഡСބ๙ڄܵ֡νልݖၛ॥ᇅ۽ӱീ۽bӱ,۴ऌ۽ӱࣜဒࡌഡᆃུ۽֥ӻ࿃ൈࡗڛՖ၂ק၂Ϯটඪ,۽ӱ֥ࣉ؇ა۽ӱਈႵܱ,ط۽ӱਈ֥ෛࠏٳ҃bႮႿຩᇏ۲۽֥ൈ൞ෛࠏэਈ,ႻุགྷᄝٮႨഈ,ၹՎ,ٮႨෛࣉ؇֥э߄൞၂ᆰၹطᆜ۱ཛଢປӮ֥ൈࡗ္൞ෛࠏэਈbᄝ၂Ϯ౦ঃཌbൈ,۽ӱീ۽ᇏ௹֥ࣉ؇ᄹࡆཌྷؓႿ۽ӱष۽༯,ಒקཛଢປӮൈࡗ֥ۀੱٳ҃бࢠ,෮ၛԚ௹ބਢ࣍ࢲඏൈࢠູߏત,ၹՎ,۽௹ෛࣉ؇֥э86ඣ০ඣඌ ֻ40ज 2009୍ֻ1௹
ۚྖڏ,֩∀ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌ࣮߄൞၂ّሇ֥S౷ཌbᆃ,ဢॖၛႨࣉ؇ொҵൌൈყҩა॥ᇅbᄝ4ᇏ,ՖWPൈఏ,ؓ۽ӱປTVބٮႨொҵCVট૭ඍ۽ӱ֥ொҵ౦ঃbࣉ؇ொҵ۽,ࠧࣉ؇ູ100%ൈ֥۽௹აٮႨࣉྛٟᆇყҩ,ބٮႨொҵٳљ൞ൌ࠽۽௹ა࠹߃ӻ࿃ൈࡗaൌ࠽ٮ֤֞ປ۽ൈ֥ٮႨ(estimatedcostatcompletion,EAC)Ⴈა࠹߃ሧᆭࡗ֥ҵح,ࠧؓႋႿ֒భࣉ؇wi,ބ۽௹(elapsedtimeatcompletion,TAC)֥ۀੱٳ,҃ࣉ؇ொҵTVაٮႨொҵCVٳљіൕູ:TV=di-Ⴟ൞۽ӱປ۽ൈ֥ٮႨொҵ(at completioncostvari ei,CV=bi-cibance,ACV)ູࠧປ۽ൈ֥࠹߃௹ຬٮႨ(expected3 1 ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ෛࠏࣉ؇S౷ཌbudgetedcostatcompletion, BAC)აՖ֒భࣉ؇ԩყҩS౷ཌ֥ᇗေ၇ऌᆭ၂ູࠧຩ࠹߃,ຩ࠹֥ປ۽௹ຬٮႨ( EAC)ᆭࡗ֥ҵحb,ປ۽ൈ֥߃ᇏ۲۽ӻ࿃ൈࡗ֥ಒקႵ2োٚم:၂ູಒקྟࣉ؇ொҵ(at completiontimevariance,ATV)іൕປ۽ٚم,ࠧ۴ऌൌ۽ӱਈࠇ۽ӱࣜဒোб۳ק၂ӻ࿃ൈ֥࠹߃௹ຬ۽௹(expectedscheduledurationatcom ൈࡗ;ؽ൞҂ಒקྟٚم,ೂׄܙ࠹ࠇڛՖଖᇕݦpletion, DAC)აՖ֒భࣉ؇ԩყҩ֥ປ۽௹ຬ۽௹ඔٳ҃֩bЧ໓ҐႨٟᆇ֥ٚم,ॉ੮۽ӱീ۽ᇏ֥( TAC)ᆭࡗ֥ҵᆴ,ࠧᇙ؟ၹ,ࡹ৫۽ӱീ۽֥ٟᆇଆ,ѩႄೆෛࠏٟACV= BAC- EAC(2)ᆇ֥ۀ,֤ԛ۽֥ӻ࿃ൈࡗ,ࣉطࣉྛຩ࠹߃ATV= DAC- TAC(3)ٳ༅bૄࣉྛ၂Ցٟᆇ࠹ෘॖ֤ٟ֞ᆇӮݔ֥၂۱ဢЧ,ࣉྛ؟Ց࠹ෘ,ࠧॖ֤֞ᄝ҂ീ۽ࣉ؇༯,ٟᆇ۽௹ࠇٮႨ֥၂ቆဢЧᆴ,ؓဢЧࣉྛ࠹ٳ༅,Ⴟ൞ॖቔԛЇݣनᆴaഈ༯2ቆຓЇཌᄝଽ֥3ቆS౷ཌ,၂ఏܒӮਔࠎႿٟᆇ֥ෛࠏࣉ؇S౷ཌb3ູૄᄹࡆ10%֥ീ۽ࣉ؇෮֤֥֞S౷ཌb4 ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇S౷ཌყҩა॥ᇅೂݔACVaATVनູᆞᆴ,ॖࢤ൳,ڎᄵ҂ॖࢤ൳,ླҐ౼ཌྷႋ֥۽ӱծീࣉྛ॥ᇅbЧ໓ҐႨᆃᇕٟᆇ֥ٚم,ؓໃປ۽۽ഡקఃീ۽ሑࣉྛീ۽ٟᆇ,ѩॉ੮ၘປބᄝࡹ۲۽ᆭ3 ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ෛࠏࣉ؇S౷ཌࡗ֥આܱࠠ༢,ఃࢲݔ۷ିژކग़ܴൌ࠽,ऎႵ၂ק֥Ⴊᄀྟb3 2 ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇S౷ཌყҩა॥ᇅၛ֒భീ۽ࣉ؇ູఏ,ׄؓު࿃۽ӱࣉྛീ۽ٟ4 工程实例ᆇ,ॖၛࠆ֤ໃປ۽ӱ֥ീ۽۽௹ࠣٮႨ,ႮՎࣉྛଖ۽ӱ֥ຩ࠹߃ೂ5෮ൕ,۲۽ҕඔՖbඣ০ඣඌ ֻ40ज 2009୍ֻ1௹87
ۚྖڏ,֩∀ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌ࣮і1 ۲ീ۽ࣉ؇༯֥۽௹აٮႨ௹ຬᆴࣉ؇/%05101520253035404550556065707580859095100۽௹/d035 149 461 171 682 593 7104 6116 0128 1140 4153 0164 2174 9185 1194 7205 3217 0234 7277 7309 0ٮႨ/ຣჭ03 16 19 212 215 318 321 424 427 530 533 636 639 742 745 848 851 954 958 061 1і2 ۲ീ۽ࣉ؇༯۽௹აٮႨᄝ =0 05ൈ֥ᇂྐࡗࣉ؇/%05101520253035404550556065707580859095100۽௹ഈ030445565758595106118129141153163174183193203218263293/d༯04055677890102114126139152165176187196206218231251293325ٮႨഈ02 895 878 8411 8114 7817 7320 7123 6726 6229 5832 5435 5038 4641 4244 3847 3450 3153 2756 2259 18/ຣჭ༯03 206 309 4412 5615 6918 8221 9525 0828 2231 3434 4937 6140 7443 8747 0250 1553 2856 4059 5462 67 ᇿ:іᇏ ഈ a ༯ ٳљіൕ۽௹აٮႨ֥ഈ༯ຓЇཌᆴbᄝՎൌ২ᇏ,۽֥ӻ࿃ൈࡗࠣٮႨनႮീ۽ٟᆇ෮؇༯۽௹აٮႨ֥ᇂྐࡗೂі2෮ਙb֤,ࣉ؇ϤٳбᄝՎקၬູ۲۽ٮႨა۽ӱሹٮႨࠎႿՎ,ቔԛھ۽ӱ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌೂᆭбᆴb6෮ൕb5 ൌ২ຩ࠹߃ؓՎຩ࠹߃ࣉྛ500Ցٟᆇ࠹ෘ,ѩٳљ࠹ປӮ۽ӱࣉ؇5%,10%,15%,#,95%,100%ൈ֥ٮႨބ۽௹ඔऌ,ؓՎඔऌࣉྛ࠹ٳ༅b൮༵ಒק۲Ϥٳбࣉ؇ൈ֥नᆴ,ၛಒקS౷ཌ֥௹ຬᆴཌb۽௹ބٮႨοࣉ؇5%־ᄹ֥௹ຬᆴೂі1෮ਙbఃՑಒקS౷ཌ֥ຓЇཌ,ᄝՎ۳קᇂྐ؇ູ6 ଖ۽ӱ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌ0 95,ࠧ =1-0 95=0 05bՖ500۱ဢЧඔऌᇏ֤ԛ۲ࣉ؇༯֥۽௹აٮႨொҵनཬႿ8 5(ᄝՎ౼5 结 论ቋնᆴS=8 5)bՖ࠹ෘࢲݔॖၛु֞नᆴ ֥ᇂྐࡗࠫެაनᆴX∀ཌྷҵࠫ,ᆃ္ࣼᆣૼॖၛႨဢЧ໓ᄝಒקS౷ཌ֥ࠎԤഈิԛ֥ࠎႿٟЧ֥नᆴX∀টսูሹุ֥नᆴ bॖၛᆣૼ,္ᆇ֥٤ಒקࣉ؇S౷ཌ,ࢹᇹ༢ٟᆇඌ,ॖၛႨဢЧ֥ٚҵ2Sটսูሹุ֥ٚҵ!2bႿ൞ؓࡹ৫ିܔ૭ඍग़ܴൌ࠽֥ٟᆇଆѩࣉྛ؟ՑٟᆇႿՎ500۱ᆴ֥ဢЧ,ૌॖၛಪູఃڛՖN(X∀,࠹ෘ,֤֞۲۽ӻ࿃ൈࡗࠣఃۀੱٳ҃bൈॉ2S)֥ᆞٳ҃b੮ീ۽ٮႨ,ၛ۲۽֥ീ۽ٮႨᅝሹ۽ӱٮႨ֥ؓN(X∀2,S)ᆞٳ,҃ࡌקᇂྐඣູ0 95,Ϥٳбট૭ඍ۽ӱ֥ࣉ؇,Ⴟ൞֤֞۲ീ۽ࣉ؇༯ᄵP{|X-X∀|<k!}=2∀(k)-1=0 95,∀(k)=֥ീ۽۽௹ࠣٮႨႨ౦ঃbࠎႿՎᇕٚمᇅ֥0 975bҰᆞٳ҃і,֤k=1 96bႿ൞नᆴX∀֥S౷ཌ൞၂۱S౷ཌ՛,Їݣഈ༯ຓЇᆴཌ,ൡᇂྐࡗ:ູX∀-1 96!<X<X∀+1 96!bႿ൞۲ࣉႿࣉྛࣉ؇֥ყҩა॥ᇅbೂޅॹaሙಒࡹ৫88ඣ০ඣඌ ֻ40ज 2009୍ֻ1௹
ۚྖڏ,֩∀ࠎႿٟᆇ֥ീ۽ࣉ؇ܵS౷ཌ࣮ିაൌ࠽ീ۽ݖӱཌྷژކ֥ٟᆇଆ,ߎླေࣉྛ[4] ਾࣁӄ,ဗཫਟ ീ۽ཛଢࣉ؇࠹߃֥ཐࢇაS౷ཌሸކ۷ധೆ֥࣮bбࢠم[J] ݗغўࡹᇽն࿐࿐Б,1997,(2):27 29 [5] ൎᆑܡ S౷ཌყҩଆࠣఃᄝඣ۽ӱീ۽ܵᇏ֥ႋႨҕॉ໓ང[J] ݱඣ০৯࿐ჽ࿐Б,1989,22(6):140 143 :[6] DenghuaZhong,JingruL,iHuirongZhu,etal Geographicinfor [1] BarrazaGA,BackWE Probabilisticmonitoringofprojectperform mationsystem basedvisualsimulationmethodologyanditsapplica anceusingSS Curves[J] JournalofConstructionEngineeringandtioninconcretedamconstructionprocesses[J] JournalofConstruc Management,ASCE,2000,126(2):142 148 tionEngineeringandManagement(0733 9364),ASCE,2004,130[2] BarrazaGA,BackWE Probabilisticforecastingofprojectperform (5):742 750 anceusingStochasticSCurves[J] JournalofConstructionEngi [7] ᇒ֨,ਾউࡹ,ဗཫې ീ۽ࣉ؇࠹߃಼ྟຩٟᆇ֥҂ಒneeringandManagement,ASCE,2004,130(1):25 32 קྟ࣮[J] ༢۽ӱંაൌ,2005,25(2):107 112 [3] SinghA DevelopingandimplementingC SCSC[J] J ProflIssuesinEngrg Educ andPract ,ASCE,1991,117(3):295 308 (ᄳщࠠ 欧阳越)∃ࡥ ∃%ඣ০ඣඌ&ࠆ ಆݓॆᆑࣷᄙ࿆ԮБ༵֡ࣉ௹़ ӫݼ ᇏݓ௹़ླྀ߶Ⴟ2008୍12ᄅ11ರᅺष ڿ۪Էູᇗေༀ,ࡆϫࡆ,ׄࠣൈሙಒ़ֹԛਔնਈݓଽྍ,॓࿐ؿᅚ!!!ࡀᇏݓ௹़ြڿ۪ष٢30ᇛ୍ຓܱႿဈೖஆགٚ૫֥ඌ໓ᅣ,ᄝॆᆑࣷᄙބᄙ᳝іᅤն߶ ,߶ഈ൱Ⴭ%ದ߂Б&ᇏ໓ϱ֩106ᇕުᇗࡹ۽ቔᇏؿߨਔࠒ֥ࠞቔႨb2008୍ֻ7௹ห௹़ ಆݓॆᆑࣷᄙ࿆ԮБ༵֡ࣉ௹़ უӫݼ,љቆᆮਔ ݓຓֹᆑުဈೖஆགࠣᇍህণ ;ֻ8൱Ⴭ37໊ᆽ ಆݓॆᆑࣷᄙ࿆ԮБ༵֡ࣉ۱ದ ௹หљ़ԛਔ ࣞඣ҆ؒᚫԫֹᆑဈೖஆགህუӫݼb%ඣ০ඣඌ&ᄖᆽࠆ ಆݓॆᆑࣷᄙ࿆ࠠ ;ѩ࿃ؓ 5 12 ᚫԫֹᆑުඣ০ٚ૫֥۲ᇕԮБ༵֡ࣉ௹़ ӫݼba॓࿐࣮Ӯݔaᄙުᇗࡹaᆑགඣ९Ԣགࡆܥa 5 12 ඹԫᚫԫնֹᆑؿള,ު%ඣ০ඣᄙ୪ըνಆ܂ඣ֩ٚ૫ࣉྛਔ۵ሶБ֡,ԉٳؿߨඌ&ᄖᆽࠒࠞཙႋ֔ᇏနaݓༀჽ֥ݼᅺ,गॻगਔ॓௹़ᄝॆᆑࣷᄙᇏ֥ቔႨ,֤֞ਔႵܱ҆ބ,ڋངιྏbൈ,ᄖᆽഠϜॆᆑࣷᄙ࿆ԮБ֡ቔֆ໊֥ݺބड़קbඣ০ඣඌ ֻ40ज 2009୍ֻ1௹89
