2007쮫쓪뗚4웚훐쓏닆뺭헾램듳톧톧놨ꇭ.ퟜ뗚퓂뾯Bimonthly163웚JOURNALOFZHONGNANUNIVERSITYOFECONOMICSANDLAWSerialꇭ.163믹폚뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램뗄춻랢릫릲쫂볾ퟜ탨쟳돥믷럖컶쳆컄뷸ꆡ췀ꆡ컀(훐쓏닆뺭헾램듳톧탂뮪뷰죚놣쿕톧풺,뫾놱커몺430073)햪튪ꆰ:9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾뇪횾ퟅ쫀뷧뷸죫쇋튻룶춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄뛠랢웚ꆣ캪쇋듓ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뗄뷇뛈럖컶춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄뺭볃펰쿬,뿉틔쪹폃뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램쪶뇰돶훐쏀솽맺뗄쪵볊ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣ럖컶뇭쏷ꆰ,9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾ꆢSARS쫂볾뫍ꆰ뾨쳘샯쓈ꆱ럧쫂볾뻹뛔ퟜ탨쟳닺짺쇋돥믷ꆣ틽랢ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뗄풭틲퓲훷튪퓚폚춻랢릫릲쫂볾뛔뺭볃훷쳥뗄풤웚뫍뺭볃탐캪뗄룄뇤ꆣ맘볼듊:춻랢릫릲쫂볾;ퟜ탨쟳돥믷;뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:100325230(2007)0420039206춻랢릫릲쫂볾훷튪쫇횸춻좻랢짺,퓬돉믲헟뿉쓜퓬돉훘듳짋췶ꆢ훘듳닆닺쯰쪧뫍훘듳짧믡펰쿬,뛔릫릲낲좫ꆢ짧믡컈뚨ꆢ맺볒헾좨폐뷏듳펰쿬뗄춻랢쫂볾믲ힴ첬ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾뻟폐춻랢탔ꆢ릫릲탔ꆢ캣몦탔뫍늻좷뚨탔뗈쳘뗣ꆣ쯦ퟅ21쫀볍뗄떽살뫍ꆰ9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾뗄랢짺,쫀뷧뷸죫쇋춻랢릫릲쫂볾랢짺뗄뛠랢웚ꆣ웆뮵솦뻞듳뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦ꆢ퓚죋샠폫뚯컯훐뒫능뗄룷훖탂샠탍벲늡ꆢ뿖닀쾮믷뫍평폚볆쯣믺늡뚾믲벼쫵맊헏퓬돉뗄맘볼쾵춳첱뮾뗈튻쾵쇐늻춬샠탍뗄훘듳춻랢릫릲쫂볾뛔죋샠뺭볃폫짧믡퓬돉쇋뗄훘듳돥믷,뛸쟒룷훖춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄맦쒣뫍펰쿬랶캧퓚붫살뚼폐뷸튻늽삩듳뗄쟷쫆ꆣ뛔춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄퇐뺿틑돉캪떱잰뗄튻룶훘튪뿎쳢,떫쫇죋쏇맘힢뗄붹뗣췹췹퓚폚춻랢릫릲쫂볾퓬돉뗄훘듳죋풱폫닆닺쯰쪧,뛔쯦뫳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷좴좱랦ퟣ릻뗄훘쫓ꆣ틲듋,놾컄뎢쫔듓ퟜ탨쟳뷇뛈럖컶춻랢릫릲쫂볾퓬돉뗄뺭볃돥믷ꆣꆡꆡ튻ꆢ훘듳춻랢릫릲쫂볾퓬돉뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷맺쓚췢톧헟뗄탭뛠퇐뺿뇭쏷,훘듳춻랢릫릲쫂볾믡뛔뫪맛뺭볃닺짺퓝쪱뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣIMF뗷닩횸돶ꆰ9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾퓬돉쇋듳솿뗄죋풱짋췶뫍컯훊쯰쪧,쫂볾랢짺뫳닺짺뗄뢺쏦ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뮯돉캪뛔쏀맺ퟜ닺돶뗄벱뻧뢺쏦돥믷,떫뛔쏀맺벰웤쯻뗘쟸뗄뎤웚뺭볃펰쿬벫웤폐쿞\[1\]ꆣ뻝Ito뫍Lee뗄퇐쫕룥죕웚:2007202210믹뷰쿮쒿:뷌폽늿죋컄짧믡뿆톧퇐뺿맦뮮믹뷰쿮쒿ꆰ춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄뫪맛뺭볃펰쿬벰뛔닟:IMPLAN죭볾퓚컒맺뗄펦폃ꆱ(05JA630016);뫾놱쪡룟뗈톧킣죋컄짧믡뿆톧훘뗣퇐뺿믹뗘훐쓏닆뺭헾램듳톧뫾놱뷰죚퇐뺿훐탄훺쿮쒿(2006A004)ퟷ헟볲뷩:쳆컄뷸(1968ꆪ),쓐,뫾쓏�쿘죋,훐쓏닆뺭헾램듳톧탂뮪뷰죚놣쿕톧풺뷌쫚,늩떼;췀ꆡ컀(1982ꆪ),쓐,뫾쓏탂쳯죋,훐쓏닆뺭헾램듳톧탂뮪뷰죚놣쿕톧풺늩쪿짺ꆣ39' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뺿쿔쪾ꆰ,9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾뛔쏀맺몽뿕튵퓬돉뗄퓝쪱탔탨쟳돥믷뎬맽쫂볾랢짺횮잰탨쟳뗄30%,뎤웚돥믷퓲퓚%ퟳ폒ꆣ헢횱뷓떼훂쏀맺몽뿕튵뗄펪퓋삧쓑뫍10췲닃풱ꆣLee뫍Mckibbin횸돶SARS듸살뗄ퟮ듳뗄뺭볃쯰쪧살ퟔ폚뛔쫜펰쿬맺볒볒춥뫍웳튵횧돶탐캪뗄룄뇤ꆣ뛔룐좾SARS뗄뿖뻥퓬돉쿻럑헟탨쟳뗄복짙뫍쇷탐벲늡뗄늻좷뚨탔뛔춶헟탅탄뗄복죵쫇퓬돉ퟜ탨쟳뢺쏦돥믷뗄풭틲\[2\]ꆣ훘듳ퟔ좻퓖몦뗄웆뮵솦퓬돉뗄ퟜ릩룸돥믷뗄춬쪱튲튻퇹믡듸살뻞듳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣAuffret뛔1970ꆫ1999쓪볤16룶볓샕뇈뗘쟸벰삭뚡쏀훞맺볒뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦퓬돉펰쿬뷸탐쪵횤럖컶뫳,맩쓉돶ퟔ좻퓖몦뛔뺭볃펰쿬뗄쯄쳵춾뺶:(1)닺돶퓶뎤싊뗄쏷쿔쿂붵;(2)춶퓶뎤싊뗄쏷쿔쿂붵;(3)쮽죋늿쏅쿻럑뗄복짙;(4)뺭뎣쿮쒿돠ퟖힴ뿶뗄뛱뮯ꆣ웤훐뗄(2)ꆢ(3)뫍(4)쿮뚼폫ퟜ탨쟳돥믷폐맘\[3\]ꆣ듓뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄뷇뛈짏뾴,랲쫇뿉쓜펰쿬떽짧믡뛔닺욷믲샍컱ퟜ탨쟳뗄틲쯘뚼뿉틔돆캪ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣ죧복쮰ꆢ믵뇒릩펦솿뗄퓶볓ꆢ헾뢮횧돶뗄퓶볓ꆢ돶뿚탨쟳뗄퓶볓ꆢ춶뗄퓶볓뫍뛔캴살뺭볃ퟟ쫆샖맛뗄풤웚뗈뗈뚼쫇헽쏦뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷;랴횮,퓲쫇뢺쏦뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾튻냣믡퓬돉쿻럑복짙ꆢ춶복짙뫍뛔캴살뺭볃ퟟ쫆뗄놯맛풤웚뗈랽쏦뗄뢺쏦ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣ샽죧ꆰ9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾랢짺뫳,쫀뷧탭뛠뗘랽뗄죋쏇튻랽쏦퓚맘힢탂컅,쇭튻랽쏦퓲돶폚낲좫뾼싇,뚼뇜쏢좥릫릲뫍폩샖뎡쯹ꆣ죋쏇돶탐뫍쿻럑쒣쪽뗄룄뇤,퓬돉쏀맺뻆뗪뿕랿싊짏짽뫍58000룶쿠맘릤ퟷ믺믡복짙ꆣSARS뗈뒫좾탔벲늡퓲춨맽쿞훆죋쏇뗄탐캪뫍쿻럑랽쪽살펰쿬ퟜ탨쟳ꆣSARS뗄놬랢뫳,싃폎헟퓝쪱늻풸틢좥폐SARS늡샽놨룦뗄싃폎뗘싃폎,뛔룐좾SARS뗄뿖뻥퓬돉쿻럑헟탨쟳뗄복짙ꆣꆰ뾨쳘샯쓈ꆱ럧쫂볾훐,쏀맺쓜풴닺돶쫜떽펰쿬,퓬돉폍볛엊짽훁샺쪷ퟮ룟뗣,듲믷쇋쿻럑헟뫍춶헟탅탄,웈쪹릫훚복짙횧돶ꆣ쯤좻떱쪱쫀뷧뺭볃컈붡퓶뎤쯹탎돉뗄잿뺢탨쟳튻뚨돌뛈짏퇚룇쇋쫂볾듸살뗄탨쟳돥믷,떫평럧췆뚯뗄폍볛짏헇뛔ퟜ탨쟳뗄펰쿬쫇럇뎣쏷쿔뗄ꆣ죋쏇뗄짺믮틲듋쫜떽뫜듳펰쿬,돶탐돉놾퓶볓,쿻럑뷡릹놻웈랢짺뫜듳뇤뮯ꆣ퓚춶랽쏦,춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄랢짺쓜룄뇤춶헟뗄럧쿕욫뫃,뷸뛸퓬돉춶뗄복짙ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄랢짺죧맻틽랢춶헟뛔쫂볾퓙듎랢짺뗄떣탄,늻좷뚨탔뗄퓶듳믡퓝쪱듙쪹춶헟룼볓킡탄뷷짷뗘탐뚯,춶헟뻍믡쟣쿲퓝쪱믘뇜럧쿕,춬쪱맛달쫂볾쫇럱믡퓙듎랢짺ꆣ춶헟럧쿕욫뫃룄뇤,믡펰쿬놾뗄쇷뚯,틽웰뷰죚닺볛룱뗄쿔훸뇤뮯ꆣ헢훖뷰죚닺볛룱뗄늨뚯폖춨맽웳튵죚돉놾뗄뇤뮯펰쿬떽춶,룶죋뷰죚닺볛횵뗄뇤뮯펰쿬떽쮽죋쿻럑,뛔췢늿쏅맺볊뺺헹솦뗄뇤뮯펰쿬떽뷸돶뿚ꆣ캪쇋룼쟥돾뗘쇋뷢춻랢릫릲쫂볾퓬돉뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷,놾컄닉폃벾뛈쪵볊닺돶뫍쪵볊컯볛횸쫽ퟷ캪뇤솿,쪹폃뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램(Long2runRecursiveIdentification)듓쏀맺뫍훐맺뗄뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿뗄늨뚯훐럖뇰쪶뇰돶ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣ뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램쫇Blanchard뫍Quah퓚Sims뫍Bernanke붨솢뗄SVAR(뷡릹쿲솿ퟔ믘맩)쒣탍믹뒡짏틽죫뎤웚돥믷킧펦뫳뗃떽뗄,Blanchard뫍Quah틔닺돶뫍쪧튵싊ퟷ캪쓚짺뇤솿,쪶뇰뫍럖컶쇋햽뫳쏀맺뺭볃훐뗄ퟜ릩룸돥믷뫍ퟜ탨쟳돥믷\[4\]\[5ꆣ\]쯦뫳Bayoumi뫍Eichengreen폃뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램쪶뇰쇋얷훞룷맺뗄탨쟳돥믷뫍릩룸돥믷,늢럖컶쇋룷맺돥믷횮볤뗄쿠맘탔,폫Blanchard뫍Quah쯹늻춬뗄쫇닉좡쇋닺돶뫍춨믵엲헍싊ퟷ캪쓚짺뇤솿ꆣBayoumi뫍Eichengreen쪹폃뷡릹쪽VAR랽램뛔뺭볃돥믷뛔돆탔뷸탐볆솿럖컶퓚쟸폲뫏ퟷ퇐뺿훐뗃떽쇋맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ퓚듳솿뗄뷡릹쪽VAR쒣탍컄쿗훐,뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램틑놻횤쏷펵폐훘튪뗄펦폃볛횵ꆣ뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램뗄믹놾풭샭쫇:평폚뷡릹쪽VAR쒣탍훐뗄뷡릹돥믷늻쓜횱뷓맀볆뗃떽,뛸볲뮯쪽VAR쒣탍훐뗄쾵쫽뻘헳폫닐닮뿉틔횱뷓맀볆뗃떽ꆣ틲듋,뿉틔춨맽좷뚨뷡릹돥믷폫볲뮯쪽VAR쒣탍닐닮횮볤뗄맘쾵뻘헳,살듯떽쪶뇰뷡릹돥믷뗄쒿뗄ꆣ볲뮯쪽VAR쒣탍뿉틔킴돉:ꆡꆡD(L)x(t=et1)ꆡꆡetꆫ(0,ꚸ)(2)웤훐,D(L)=D0+D1L+D2L2+ꆭ+DpLp,L쫇훍뫳쯣ퟓ(맦뚨Lixt=xt-)i,D0쫇(nꇁn)떥캻뻘헳,Di쫇(nꇁn)뻘헳;xt쫇튻룶(nꇁ1)쿲솿;닐닮et쫇럾듓(0,ꚸ)헽첬럖늼뗄(nꇁ1)쿲솿냗퓫틴탲쇐,웤킭랽닮뻘헳Eꇤ(e)tet=ꚸ;틲캪et튻냣늻쫇뛔뷇뻘헳,틲듋늻쓜놻뾴ퟷ쫇뷡릹돥믷ꆣ죧맻(1)쪽뗄쳘헷40' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뛠쿮쪽뗄룹퓚떥캻풲횮췢,훍뫳뛠쿮쪽뻘헳D(L)뻍쫇뿉쓦뗄,헢뻍쪹뗃(1)쪽뿉틔뮯캪컞쿞쿲솿틆뚯욽뻹맽돌:ꆡꆡxt=A(L)e(t3)웤훐A(L)=D(L-1)ꆣ퓚틔짏뗄뻘헳뛠쿮쪽훐,D(L)뿉틔춨맽OLS믘맩뗃떽,틲듋튲쫇뿉틔쟳뗃뗄ꆣ뛸뷡릹쪽VAR쒣탍뿉틔뇭듯캪:ꆡꆡB(L)x(t=ꛅt4)ꆡꆡEꇤ(ꛅꛅ)tt=I(5)웤훐ꛅt쫇뷡릹돥믷쿲솿,틲듋쯹폐뗄헽붻돥믷뚼놻뇪ힼ떥캻뮯ꆣ죧맻D(L)쫇뿉쓦뗄,쓇쎴B(L)튲쫇뿉쓦뗄,(4)쪽뿉틔뮯돉:ꆡꆡxt=C(L)ꛅ(t6)웤훐C(L)=B(L-1)ꆣ(6)쪽뗄뺭볃톧몬틥쫇,xt훐쯹폐뗄쓚짺뇤솿쫇믹놾뷡릹돥믷ꛅt룷훍뫳웚킧펦컞쿞뗾볓뗄뷡맻ꆣ평(3)쪽뫍(6)쪽,컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽뷡릹돥믷폫닐닮횮볤뗄맘쾵쪽:ꆡꆡC(L)ꛅt=A(L)e(t7)평D0쫇떥캻뻘헳뿉횪A0=I,평폚(7)쪽퓚죎틢t웚뻹돉솢,틲듋폐:ꆡꆡCꛅ0t=e(t8)벴(1)쪽훐평OLS맀볆쯹뗃떽뗄닐닮쫇믹놾뷡릹돥믷뗄쿟탔ퟩ뫏ꆣC0뿉틔뷢쫍캪룷쓚짺뇤솿뛔뷡릹돥믷뗄벴웚랴펦뻘헳ꆣ뛔(8)쪽솽뇟좡욽랽,퓙평(2)쪽폫(5)쪽뿉틔뗃떽:ꆡꆡC0Cꇤ0=ꚸ(9)뷡뫏(7)쪽폫(8)쪽뿉뗃:ꆡꆡC(L)ꛅꛅ(t=A(L)C0t10)듓뛸뇭쏷:ꆡꆡCi=AiC0Πi(11)죧맻C0뿉횪,뷡릹돥믷ꛅt뿉틔평(8)쪽쪶뇰돶살ꆣ틲캪듓볲뮯쪽VAR쒣탍훐뿉틔맀볆돶Ai,뛸춨맽(11)쪽뿉틔죝틗뗘볆쯣뗃떽뷡릹쪽쾵쫽Ciꆣ평(11)쪽컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽:ꆡꆡC(1)=A(1)C0(12)웤훐C(1)뫍A(1)듺뇭룷웚돥믷뗄뗾볓킧펦(틲캪C(L)=C0+C1L+C2L2+ꆭ+CpLp,퓲C(1)=C0+C1+C2+ꆭ+Cp,춬샭뿉뗃A(1)=A0+A1+A2+ꆭ+Ap),A(1)뿉틔듓볲뮯쪽VAR쒣탍(1)훐맀볆뗃떽ꆣ뛸뎤웚뗝맩킧펦퓲뿉틔ퟷ캪쪶뇰C0뗄풼쫸쳵볾쳭볓훁C(1)떱훐ꆣ틲듋,(12)쪽쫇쪶뇰맽돌뗄맘볼ꆣ평폚C0쫇튻룶(nꇁn)뻘헳,쟳뗃C0탨튪n2룶풼쫸쳵볾,틲듋돽쇋(9)쪽쳡릩뗄n(n+1)/2룶풼쫸쳵볾췢,뮹탨튪퓚C(1)훐쳭볓n(n-1)/2룶풼쫸쳵볾ꆣ퓚EViews죭볾훐,캪뷡릹VAR쒣탍훐뷡릹돥믷쪶뇰쳡릩쇋쏅뗄릦쓜톡쿮,횻튪쫤죫볲뮯쪽VAR쒣탍뗄쓚짺뇤솿뫍뎤웚풼쫸쳵볾C1,뻍뿉틔좷뚨뮻뻘헳C0ꆣ놾컄닉폃쪵볊닺돶뫍맺쓚쪵볊볛룱ퟷ캪쓚짺뇤솿,붨솢뷡릹VAR쒣탍,좻뫳듓뷡릹VAR쒣탍훐쪶뇰돶ퟜ탨쟳폫ퟜ릩룸돥믷ꆣ퓚놾컄뗄솽쒣탍쾵춳훐,튪쟳뗃C0뮹탨튪퓚C(1)훐쳭볓튻룶뎤웚풼쫸쳵볾ꆣ룹뻝볲뮯뫳뗄뻟폐뒹횱릩룸쟺쿟뗄ퟜ릩룸ퟜ탨쟳쒣탍,컒쏇볙뚨:(1)퓚뎤웚쓚,ퟜ릩룸돥믷뛔쪵볊닺돶뫍맺쓚볛룱뻹폐펰쿬;(2)ퟜ탨쟳돥믷퓚뛌웚뛔볛룱퓬돉뗄펰쿬,퓚뎤웚쓚붫믖뢴떽풭살쮮욽ꆣ틲듋,뎤웚풼쫸쳵볾뿉틔킴돉:ꆡꆡNA0C1=NANA훐맺맺볒춳볆뻖듓1995쓪튻벾뛈닅뾪쪼랢늼벾뛈쏻틥GDP쫽뻝,쯹틔놾컄훐쯹톡좡뗄쓚짺뇤솿41' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗄벾뛈쫽뻝뿧뛈캪1995쓪튻벾뛈훁2006쓪튻벾뛈ꆣ웤훐훐맺벾뛈쏻틥GDP쫽뻝살ퟔ훐맺맺볒춳볆뻖맙랽췸햾뫍IFSꆣIFS쳡릩뗄훐맺벾뛈CPI횸쫽쫇쿠뛔짏쓪춬웚뗄퓶뎤싊,틲듋놾컄룹뻝2000쓪뗄CPI뮷뇈횸쫽ퟷ쇋췆쯣,뗃떽틔2000쓪캪믹웚뗄룷벾뛈CPI뚨믹웚퓶뎤횸쫽ꆣ평폚훐맺쪵볊GDP쫽뻝늻뿉뗃,쪵볊닺돶뻍평쏻틥GDP돽틔춨믵엲헍싊(퓚놾컄훐뻍평뒦샭맽뫳뗄벾뛈CPI횸쫽듺쳦)볆쯣뗃떽ꆣ쏀맺뗄쪵볊닺돶뫍맺쓚볛룱럖뇰평IMF뗄맺볊뷰죚춳볆쫽뻝뿢(InternationalFinancialStatis2tics,IFS)쳡릩뗄쪵볊GDP듦솿뫍룷맺뗄쿠뛔믹웚뗄CPI횸쫽뛈솿ꆣ뛔뗃떽뗄솽맺쪵볊GDP뫍CPI횸쫽좡뛔쫽뫳,뷸탐쇋벾뷚뗷헻뫍튻뷗닮럖뒦샭ꆣퟮ훕뗃떽뗄쏀맺ퟜ탨쟳돥믷탲쇐폫훐맺ퟜ탨쟳돥믷탲쇐볻춼1폫춼2ꆣ듓춼1훐뿉틔랢쿖ꆰ,9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾랢짺뫳뗄2001쓪뗚쯄벾뛈,쏀맺퓢폶뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷횵캪,1996쓪틔살쏀맺퓢폶뗄ퟮ듳뗄탨쟳돥믷랢짺폚2003쓪뗚뛾벾뛈,닺짺뗄훷튪풭틲쫇2003쓪3퓂럝놬랢뗄틁삭뿋햽헹ꆣꆰ뾨쳘샯쓈ꆱ럧랢짺뗄2005쓪뗚쯄벾뛈훐,쏀맺뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쯤좻캪헽,떫쿠뇈짏튻벾뛈폐듳럹쿂뮬ꆣ춼1ꆡ쏀맺뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷SARS퓬돉뗄뺭볃펰쿬벯훐폚2003쓪뗄뗚뛾벾뛈ꆣ듓춼2훐튲뿉틔맛닢떽,퓚2003쓪뗚뛾벾뛈컒맺퓢폶쇋쿠뛔뷏듳뗄뢺쿲ퟜ탨쟳돥믷,뛸쟒폫뗚튻벾뛈쿠뇈,ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뇤뮯뗄럹뛈럇뎣듳ꆣ춼2ꆡ훐맺뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆡꆡ뛾ꆢ춻랢릫릲쫂볾ퟜ탨쟳돥믷닺짺뗄풭틲춻랢릫릲쫂볾퓬돉뢺쏦ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뗄훷튪풭틲쫇춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄랢짺뛔쿻럑헟뫍춶헟풤웚뫍뺭볃탐캪믡닺짺훘듳펰쿬ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄캣몦탔뫍늻좷뚨탔믡복죵쿻럑헟ꆢ웳튵볒뫍춶헟뛔캴살뺭볃뗄탅탄,떼훂쿻럑헟뫍춶헟뛔캴살뺭볃뗄놯맛풤웚뫍뺭볃믮뚯뗄복짙ꆣ쿻럑헟ꆢ짌튵탅탄뫍춶헟뛔캴살뺭볃뗄풤웚뫜듳돌뛈짏뻶뚨폚춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄돖탸쪱볤뫍퓚캴살뻭췁훘살뗄벸싊듳킡ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄춻랢탔뫍릫릲탔퓲쪹뗃헢훖놯맛풤웚뫍뺭볃탐캪춨맽떱듺짧믡뗄뢴퓓췸싧퓚헻룶짧믡훐뒫능,듓뛸퓬돉뛌웚ퟜ탨쟳(쿻럑ꆢ춶ꆢ돶뿚)뗄복짙ꆣퟮ훕,춻랢릫릲쫂볾떼훂뗄횱뷓ퟜ탨42' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쟳돥믷폖춨맽돋쫽킧펦뷸튻늽뒫떼ꆢ럅듳,탎돉뷏듳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣ춻랢쫂볾뛔쿻럑헟뫍웳튵볒풤웚뗄룄뇤퓚탅탄횸쫽짏쓜뗃떽뷏뫃뗄쳥쿖,쫂볾랢짺뫳,탅탄횸쫽췹췹믡벱뻧쿂붵뫍늨뚯ꆣ쿻럑헟뫍웳튵볒횸쫽쫇틔컊뻭뗷닩랽쪽믱좡쫽뻝,뺭뒦샭뫳뗃떽뗄튻훖횸쫽,튻뚨돌뛈짏랴펳쇋쿻럑헟뫍웳튵볒뛔캴살뺭볃뗄풤웚ꆣꆰ9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾뫳,쏀맺쿻럑헟뫍웳튵볒뗄탅탄횸쫽럖뇰쿂붵쇋뫍5룶뇪ힼ욫닮,뛸쟒쫀뷧웤쯻뗘쟸뗄탅탄횸쫽튲쫜떽헢튻쫂볾뗄펰쿬ꆣꆰ뾨쳘샯쓈ꆱ럧맽뫳,쏀맺뗄쿻럑헟탅탄쫜떽뚯튡ꆣ2005쓪9퓂쏀맺뗄쿻럑헟탅탄횸쫽쿂붵떽12쓪틔살뗄ퟮ뗍쮮욽,2005쓪8퓂떽9퓂볤쿻럑헟탅탄횸쫽쿂붵뗄럹뛈쫇1978쓪틔살ퟮ듳뗄(닎볻춼3)ꆣSARS뗄놬랢펰쿬쇋컒맺쿻럑헟뫍춶헟뗄탅탄,훐맺뺭볃뺰웸볠닢훐탄퓚4퓂쿂톮뗄뗷닩뇭쏷,떱쪱71%뗄쿻럑헟놨룦ퟔ벺폐ꆰ뫜잿믲뷏잿뗄뿖뻥룐ꆱꆣ쿻럑헟웕뇩죏캪SARS뛔훐맺뺭볃뗄뢺쏦펰쿬믡ꆰ뫜듳ꆱ믲ꆰ뇈뷏듳ꆱ,늢떣탄쫕죫믡쿂붵ꆣ맺볒춳볆뻖탎쫆놨룦쿔쪾,4퓂럝쿻럑헟탅탄횸쫽캪뗣,뇈3퓂럝믘실뗣;5퓂럝폖쿂붵쇋3뗣ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾랢짺뫳뷰죚쫐뎡뗄뚯떴퓲랴펳쇋춻랢릫릲쫂볾뛔춶헟풤웚뫍뺭볃탐캪뗄룄뇤ꆣꆰ9ꆤ11ꆱ쫂볾랢짺뗄떱훜쓚,뚫뺩막쫐쿂뗸%,싗뛘쿂뗸%,냍샨쿂뗸%,램삼뿋뢣쿂뗸%ꆣ탂탋쫐뎡맺볒막욱쫐뎡뷴쯦릤튵맺볒횮뫳쿂뗸ꆣ2003쓪3퓂뗚튻샽SARS늡샽퓚퇇훞놨룦틔뫳,훐맺쿣룛ꆢ탂볓웂뫍훐맺첨췥막욱쫐뎡뚼뺭샺쇋듳럹쿂뗸ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾퓬돉뗄놯뻧탔뷡맻횱뷓펰쿬죋쏇뗄쟩탷,쟩탷뗄뇤뮯믲뛠믲짙뗘붫펰쿬쿻럑헟ꆢ웳튵볒뫍춶헟뗄풤웚뫍뺭볃탐캪ꆣKimball뫍Levy뗈뛔ꆰ뾨쳘샯쓈ꆱ럧맽뫳뗄쏀맺탒뢣횸쫽뗷닩랢쿖,쏀맺죋뗄탒뢣룐웕뇩쫜떽쫂볾펰쿬,탒뢣룐쫜펰쿬뗄돌뛈폫샫쫜퓖뗘쟸뗄뻠샫돉랴뇈,뛸쟒탒뢣횸쫽폫쿻럑헟탅탄횸쫽횮볤듦퓚튻뚨뗄솪쾵\[6\]ꆣ듋췢,랢듯뗄춨톶ꆢ췸싧벼쫵뫍워쳬룇뗘뗄쎽쳥,뿉틔쟡틗뗘냑춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄쪵쪱춼쿱뒫쯍떽뻠샫춻랢릫릲쫂볾랢짺뗘쪮럖튣풶뗄잧볒췲뮧훐ꆣ헢킩춼쿱뫍쿠맘뗄움싛컞틉믡뛔뒦폚낲좫뗘듸죋쏇뗄쟩탷퓬돉튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ놯뻧탔뗄뷡맻뫍늻좷뚨탔뗄퓶볓ퟔ좻틗폚쪹죋쏇뛔캴살뺭볃닺짺놯맛풤웚ꆣ춼3ꆡ쏀맺뗄짌튵탅탄횸쫽폫쿻럑헟탅탄횸쫽쇏살풴: 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
볃뻶닟쪱췹췹쫖ퟣ컞듫ꆣ퓚헢쪱,죋쏇룼쟣쿲폚냑쯻죋뾴ퟷ쫇탅쾢뗄훘튪살풴ꆣ탐캪뺭볃톧훐뗄탅쾢뒮쇷샭싛횸돶,죋쏇퓚뻶닟쪱뚼믡닎뾼웤쯻죋뗄톡퓱,뛸뫶싔ퟔ벺틑폐뗄탅쾢믲뿉믱뗃뗄탅쾢,듳솿탅쾢퓚뒫능폫움맀훐폐뿉쓜뚪쪧ꆣ샽죧,춻랢릫릲쫂볾컼틽쇋듳훚뗄힢틢솦늢퓶볓쇋짧믡뗄쏴룐뛈,평폚헢쪱죋쏇벱폚톰헒ퟮ탂뗄탅쾢,쎽쳥뛔릫훚뗄펰쿬퓚퓖쓑랢짺쪱놻볓잿쇋ꆣ평볒뫍좨췾믺릹쳡릩뗄탅쾢뫍쎽쳥뒫능뗄탅쾢췹췹돉캪짧믡뛔춻랢릫릲쫂볾ퟷ돶랴펦뗄훷튪틀뻝,뛸쟒쎽쳥뢲룇랶캧룼맣ꆢ펰쿬솦룼듳ꆣ떫튻킩쎽쳥뗄쟣쿲헽퓚듓탅쾢탔쿲폩샖탔,쎽쳥캪쇋컼틽맛훚힢틢솦뛔탅쾢뷸탐쇋폩샖탔좾뒦샭,뛸쎻폐헦쪵뗘랴펳쫂볾뗄탅쾢,헢뻍캪짧믡쳡릩쇋늻ힼ좷뗄탅쾢,쪹뺭볃훷쳥ퟷ돶늻럻쪵볊뗄풤웚ꆣ룼퓣룢뗄쫇,뺭볃훷쳥퓚놯맛풤웚뗄펰쿬쿂ퟷ돶뺭볃뻶닟뫍닺짺뺭볃탐캪,뮹뿉쓜믡틲캪퇲좺킧펦뛸뇋듋쒣럂ꆢ뇋듋뒫좾,ퟮ뫳퓬돉헻룶좺쳥퓚쏦뛔춻랢릫릲쫂볾쪱뚼늻쓜ퟷ돶샭탔뻶닟뫍뷸탐샭탔뗄뺭볃탐캪ꆣ틲듋,춻랢릫릲쫂볾퓬돉뛔캴살뺭볃뗄놯맛풤웚뫍뺭볃믮뚯뗄복짙믡룼죝틗뒫능뫍럅듳ꆣ돽듋횮췢,탐캪뺭볃톧맘폚뷡릹뮯킧펦뗄듳솿퇐뺿뇭쏷,욫뫃맘쾵룟뛈틀삵폚톡퓱컊쳢뗄돊쿖랽쪽ꆣ뛔춶헟살쮵,춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄랢짺헽쫇뛔풭폐럧쿕돊쿖랽쪽뗄튻훖춻좻룄뇤,튪쟳춶헟뛔춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄펰쿬ퟷ돶훷맛뗄에뛏ꆣ내헕쒣뫽퇡뛱샭싛,헢훖쟩탎헽쫇죋쏇쯹뇜쏢뗄,헢튲뿉쓜떼훂춶헟탐캪뗄럇샭탔,퓬돉춶뗄복짙ꆣퟛ짏쯹쫶,듓듳솿퇐뺿컄쿗뫍놾컄폃뎤웚뗝맩쪶뇰램뗃떽뗄쏀맺뫍훐맺뗄ퟜ탨쟳탲쇐살뾴,ퟜ탨쟳돥믷췹췹믡냩쯦춻랢릫릲쫂볾뛸살ꆣ춻랢릫릲쫂볾뛔룷뺭볃훷쳥풤웚폫뺭볃탐캪뗄룄뇤,쫇퓬돉ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ붫춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쓉죫컒맺뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟맜샭랶캧,늢뛔춻랢릫릲쫂볾뗄뺭볃돥믷뷸탐뷸튻늽뗄짮죫퇐뺿,뛔폚캬돖컒맺뺭볃뫍짧믡뗄뫍킳랢햹폐ퟅ벫웤훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\]\[R\].WorldEconomicOutlook,Washington,2001.\[2\]LeeJW,:TheCaseofSARS\[J\].AsianEconomicPapers,2004(,13):113ꆪ131.\[3\]:theImpactofNatureDisaster\[Z\].TheWorldBankWorkingPaper,2003,2962.\[4\].,\[J\].AmericanEconomicReview,1989,79(4):655ꆪ673.\[5\]\[J\].FederalReserveBankofMinneapolisQualityReview,1986,(10):1ꆪ8.\[6\]KimballM,LevyH,\[Z\].NBERWorkingPaper,2006,12062.(퓰죎뇠벭:돂뛘쿍)44' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2007쮫쓪퓂뗚4웚훐쓏닆뺭헾램듳톧톧놨ꇭ.ퟜ뗚뾯Bimonthly163웚JOURNALOFZHONGNANUNIVERSITYOFECONOMICSANDLAWSerialꇭ.,2007HIGHLIGHTSANewIntegratedMethodforSelectingIndicesonEvaluationoftheMacro-economyPerformanceXUYing-meiꆡDINGJun-junꆤ3ꆤ(SchoolofInformation,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430073,China)Abstract:,:Macro-economyPerformance;Correlation;CausalityTest;ImpulseResponseFunction;VarianceDecompositionASurveyofTransactionCostMeasurementHUHao-zhiꆤ20ꆤ(SchoolofEconomics,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430073,China)Abstract:,thispaperdividesthetransac2tioncostintothemacroscopictransactioncostandthemicroscopictransactioncost,simultaneouslydividesthemi2croscopictransactioncostintothemarkettransactioncost,,,althoughmanyachievementsinthetransactioncostmeasurementaspecthaveobtainedinrecentyears,generallyspeaking,themethodisstillsingle;especiallythemeasurementonnon-marketedtransactioncostandthepolicytransactioncostisstillontheexperiencelevelandthemethodofdirectmeasure2mentontheenterpriseinteriortransactioncostdoesnꆯ:TransactionCost;MacroscopicTransactionCost;MicroscopicTransactionCost;MeasurementStudyonAggregateDemandShocksofPublicEmergenciesBasedonLong-runRecursiveIdentificationTANGWen-jin1ꆡTUW2eiꆤ39ꆤ(,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430073,China;,HunanUniversity,Shangsha410082,China)Abstract:Theꆰ9ꆤ11terroristattackꆱ,ꆰLong-runRecursiveIden2tificationꆱꆰ9ꆤ11terroristattackꆱ,ꆯ:PublicEmergencies;AggregateDemandShocks;Long-runRecursiveIdentification142' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
