좽짺타ꆢ췵욷쇡:싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨3좽짺타ꆡ췵욷쇡ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄뒴붨쇋튻룶ꆰ뫋탄ꆪ췢캧죽맺늩?쒣탍ꆱ;퓚듋럖컶뿲볜쓚,훘뗣퇐뺿쇋떱쏦쇙튻듎럇뛔돆뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쪱,맺볒벯췅횮볤믵뇒헾닟늩?뗄뻹뫢컊쳢,틔벰만뚨믣싊훆맺볒럅웺룃믣싊훆뛈뗄쳵볾폫쪱믺ꆣ뷡싛죏캪:믣싊훆뛈뫍믣싊쮮욽컈뚨폫럱,늻뷶좡뻶폚췢짺뺭볃돥믷뗄솿벶,룼좡뻶폚돥믷뗄뛔돆탔;떱뫋탄맺폫뢡뚯췢캧맺닉좡뫏ퟷ뗄첬뛈쪱,쓉쪲뻹뫢룼죝틗쪵쿖,룼폐샻폚맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뗄컈뚨;쪵탐뚤힡믣싊훆뗄맘볼퓚폚헾뢮떱뻖뗄쓜솦뫍탅탄;컄헂ퟮ뫳첽쳖뫍럖컶쇋컒맺펦뛔떱잰뺭볃돥믷뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟좡쿲ꆣ맘볼듊:늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆡ믵뇒헾닟늩?ꆡ믣싊컈뚨ꆡ쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔20쫀볍쒩틔살,퇝뷸훐뗄맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵죕틦뇭쿖돶탂뗄쳘헷:맺볊믣싊훆뛈톡퓱퓚뛠퇹뮯뗄놳뺰쿂풽살풽뎯ퟅ쿠뛔만뚨뫍쿠뛔뢡뚯헢솽벫벯훐;쫀뷧룷맺뗄뺭볃랢햹햽싔뫍뫪맛뺭볃헾닟욫뫃훰붥돊쿖돶벯췅뮯쟣쿲ꆣꋙ퓚헢퇹뗄맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뷡릹훐,쏦뛔럇뛔돆뗄뺭볃돥믷,퓚ퟔ짭샻틦ퟮ듳뮯뚯믺쟽쪹쿂,쳥쾵쓚맺볒쫆뇘믡ퟶ돶쿠펦뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뗷헻틔웚쓜릻벰쪱뗖쿻럇틢풸돥믷뗄뢺쿲뺭볃펰쿬ꆣ좻뛸,평폚뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뗄췢틧킧펦뗈풭틲,룷맺뗄헾닟뻶닟뇘좻믡퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏릹돉늩?맘쾵ꆣ죧맻늩?쓜릻듯돉뻹뫢,퓲쳥쾵쓚맺볒뗄헾닟뻶닟폐샻폚맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵폈웤쫇믣싊쮮욽뫍믣싊훆뛈뗄컈뚨,랴횮퓲랴쫇ꆣ뛸뻹뫢쓜럱쪵쿖틔벰쓜릻듯돉퓵퇹뗄뻹뫢,볈좡뻶폚뺭볃돥믷뗄샠탍,튲좡뻶폚룷맺뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟욫뫃ꆣ뛔헢솽훖펰쿬틲쯘뷸탐ힼ좷뷧뚨,늢퓚듋믹뒡짏뛔뿉쓜닺짺뗄뷡맻뷸탐늩?럖컶,폐샻폚ힼ좷냑컕쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂맺폫맺횮볤뫪맛뺭볃헾닟볤쿠뮥솪쾵폫쿠뮥펰쿬뗄쳘헷폫ퟷ폃믺훆;폐샻폚ힼ좷냑컕쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂맺볊믣싊훆뛈뗄놾훊쳘헷벰뿉쓜뗄퇝뷸쟷쫆;폐샻폚컒맺퓚쿠맘쇬폲ퟶ돶룼볓뿆톧뫏샭뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뻶닟ꆣ맘폚맺볊뫪맛헾닟킭뗷컊쳢,뛠볻폚훚뛠맺췢톧헟뗄톧쫵퇐뺿ꆣꋚ평폚퓚헾닟킭뗷헢튻닣쏦짏뇘탫뾼싇킭뗷맺헾뢮떱뻖뗄탐캪닟싔,틲듋붫늩?싛랽램틽죫헢튻퇐뺿쇬폲뻍돉캪뇘튪ꆣHamada(1976)쫗듎쪹폃쇋헢튻랽램,쯻춨맽튻룶솽맺쒣탍퇐뺿맺볊헾닟킭뗷컊쳢,늢쿞뚨퓚만뚨믣싊쳥쾵쿂헾뢮뗄헾닟쒿뇪쫇컯볛컈뚨뫍쫕횧뻹뫢ꆣ듋뫳,늩?싛랽램퓚헢튻쇬폲놻맣랺펦폃ꆣRogoff(1985)뛔폚늻뛔돆(늻돤럖)탅쾢쿂뫪맛헾닟킭뗷컊쳢ퟶ쇋뺭뗤럖컶,퓚웤쒣탍훐,쯻틔솬맡탔캪ퟮ3ꆡ좽짺타,뮪뚫쪦랶듳톧뷰죚폫춳볆톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:200241,뗧ퟓ폊쿤:sxran@ꆣ췵욷쇡,짏몣솢탅믡볆톧풺쫽톧폫춳볆쾵,폊헾뇠싫:201620ꆣ룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄놦맳붨틩ꆣꋙꆡ돽쏀맺췢,볓쓃듳ꆢ냄듳샻퇇틔벰얷훞뫍삭뚡쏀훞뗄듳뛠쫽맺볒풽살풽맘탄웤맺볊춶춷듧뗄쫕틦럧쿕맘쾵,풽살풽맘탄웤춷듧퓚쏀맺뗄놩슶돌뛈;퓚헢킩맺볒,웤믣싊헾닟쫇뛔쏀풪뢡뚯(웤춻돶듺뇭쫇쫀볍횮붻떮짺뗄얷풪쟸),쯻쏇릲춬릹돉쇋뗚튻맺볒벯췅ꆣ뛸뗚뛾벯췅퓲훷튪평퇇훞벰늿럖쏀훞맺볒ퟩ돉,쯻쏇훷튪맘탄뗄쫇쿲랢듯맺볒폈웤쫇쏀맺돶뿚;떱뷸뿚늻쓜놣돖춬늽퓶뎤쪱,훰붥퓶볓뗄맙랽뒢놸뻍횱뷓폃살릺싲쏀맺횤좯;웤믵뇒헾닟쫇맜훆웤믣싊ꆢ쿞훆웤믵뇒짽횵ꆣ헢솽샠맺볒뿉틔럖뇰놻돆캪ꆰ놾헋뮧맺ꆱ뫍ꆰ쎳틗헋뮧맺ꆱ(Dooleyetal,2003,2005)ꆣꋚꆡ닎볻믆볃짺ꆢ좽짺타(2005)ꆣ68
2007쓪뗚10웚폅헾닟쒿뇪ꆣ횮뫳,헢랽쏦퇐뺿폖좡뗃쇋뷏듳뗄뷸햹,웤듺뇭탔뗄톧헟폐:CanzoneriandHenderson(1989),CurrieandLevine(1991),BeetsmaandUhlig(1997),BottazziandManasse(2002)뗈ꆣ뷸죫20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,쯦ퟅ얷훞믵뇒쟸(EMU)뗄랢햹,풽살풽뛠뗄톧헟뾪쪼퇐뺿믵뇒쟸쓚맺볒볤헾닟킭뗷컊쳢ꆣ샽죧,Bryant(1995),HughesHalletandMa(1995),Sibert(1997)뗈ꆣ뛸쟒,룼뛠톧헟냑퇐뺿훘뗣쿲늻뛔돆돥믷뛔믵뇒쟸헾닟킭뗷뗄펰쿬,뷏폐듺뇭탔뗄톧헟폐Ballabrigaetal(1993),DeGrauweandVanhaverbeke(1993),Erkel2RouseandMelitz(1995),Helgetal(1995),Diaz2Roldan(2000a,2000b)뗈ꆣ튻냣뗘,헢랽쏦퇐뺿뗄뇪ힼퟶ램쫇:쫗쿈쪹폃솽맺쒣탍뗄럖컶뿲볜,퓚뷧뚨뺭볃돥믷뗄믹뒡짏좷뚨헾닟떱뻖뗄쒿뇪몯쫽ꆢ킧폃몯쫽믲뢣샻쯰쪧몯쫽,좻뫳쪹폃늩?싛랽램쟳뗃쒿뇪뇤솿(죧춨믵엲헍싊)뗄뫏ퟷ믲럇뫏ퟷ늩?뻹뫢뷢ꆣ룹뻝퇐뺿쒿뇪,퓚늩?럖컶훐틽죫늻뛔돆탅쾢ꆢ늻뛔돆돥믷믲랴뢴늩?뗈볙짨ꆣퟮ뫳,죧폐뇘튪,퓙붫솽맺쒣탍뗄뷡싛췆맣떽뛠맺뗄쟩탎ꆣ쇭췢,퓚릹붨솽맺쒣탍쪱,뛠쫽톧헟뚼틔탂뾭뛷쮹훷틥뫪맛뺭볃럖컶뿲볜캪믹뒡ꆣ뛸Obstfeld뫍Roggoff(2000)뗈죋돉릦뗘붫웳튵ꆢ볒춥뗈틲쯘틽죫ퟔ벺뗄쒣탍,듓뛸뾪웴쇋붫캢맛믹뒡틽죫뫪맛헾닟킭뗷뢣샻킧펦럖컶뗄탂랽쿲ꆣ뷨본짏쫶믹놾랽램폫럖컶뿲볜,놾컄붫쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쓚맺볒쯹쏦쇙뗄뺭볃돥믷볙짨캪늻뛔돆뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷(ISShock),틔릹붨탂쒣탍캪믹뒡,퇐뺿늻뛔돆뺭볃돥믷쿂뗄헾닟늩?뫍쳥쾵컈뚨탔컊쳢;놾컄쯹퇐뺿뗄믹놾컊쳢뿉쏨쫶캪:떱쏦쇙튻듎럇뛔돆뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쪱,죽룶맺볒벯췅붫죧뫎뷸탐믵뇒헾닟늩?,뷡맻죧뫎,폐뫎샭싛폫쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ놾컄뗄뒴탂횮뒦퓚폚,캪쇋뷴뿛쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뗄믹놾뷡릹쳘헷,놾컄붫쳥쾵쓚맺볒뮮럖캪죽룶ꆰ벯췅ꆱ,벴ꆰ뫋탄맺ꆱ(쏀맺)ꆢ믣싊쿠뛔뢡뚯뗄췢캧맺(뢡뚯췢캧맺)뫍믣싊쿠뛔만뚨뗄췢캧맺(뚤힡췢캧맺),늢퓚듋믹뒡짏뒴붨쇋튻룶ꆰ죽맺쒣탍ꆱ;퓚헢룶춳튻뗄럖컶뿲볜쓚,놾컄볈듓샭싛짏럖컶쇋쿖탐쳥쾵쿂늻춬ꆰ맺볒벯췅ꆱ횮볤믵뇒헾닟쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄믹놾믺훆뫍뿉쓜뷡맻,폖듓쿖쪵뗄뷇뛈첽쳖쇋퓚믣싊훆뛈뛠퇹뮯뫍좫쟲쇷뚯탔맽쪣뗄듳놳뺰쿂,뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷뗄믹놾랽쿲틔벰훐맺퓚펦뛔뺭볃돥믷랽쏦뗄믵뇒ꆢ닆헾폫믣싊헾닟좡쿲ꆣ놾컄웤쯻늿럖뗄낲업죧쿂:뗚뛾늿럖뛔놾컄뗄럖컶뿲볜뫍믹놾쒣탍ퟶ돶쿪쾸뷧뚨폫쏨쫶;뗚죽늿럖퇐뺿뻹뫢컊쳢;뗚쯄늿럖쫇컊쳢뗄췘햹,훷튪퇐뺿쇋쪵탐만뚨믣싊훆뗄맺볒퓚퓵퇹뗄쳵볾쿂믡럅웺헢튻믣싊훆뛈;뗚컥늿럖퓲퓚잰벸늿럖럖컶뗄믹뒡짏훷튪첽쳖쇋훐맺퓚펦뛔늻뛔돆돥믷뫍볓잿뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷랽쏦뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟좡쿲;뗚쇹늿럖룸돶쇋놾컄퇐뺿뗄믹놾뷡싛ꆣ뛾ꆢ믹놾쒣탍ꋙ(튻)믹놾볙짨벰쿠맘뇤솿뇪쪾램캪쇋볲뇣웰볻,컒쏇붫쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쓚뗄맺볒돩쿳캪:평N+1룶맺볒ퟩ돉ꆪꆪꆪ잰N룶맺볒폖럖캪솽늿럖:잰N1룶맺볒톡퓱놾뇒뛔뫋탄맺믵뇒뢡뚯뗄믣싊훆뛈;뫳N2룶맺볒톡퓱놾뇒뚤힡뫋탄맺믵뇒뗄믣싊훆뛈ꆣ헢N룶맺볒(N=N1+N2)릹돉쇋쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뗄췢캧맺ꆣퟮ뫳튻룶맺볒쫇뫋탄맺ꆣ늢ퟶ돶틔쿂믹놾볙짨:볙짨튻:컞싛쫇뢡뚯췢캧맺뮹쫇뚤힡췢캧맺뚼횻폫뫋탄맺뷸탐짌욷뫍럾컱쎳틗,뛸췢캧맺폫췢캧맺횮볤늻뷸탐헢퇹뗄뺭볃믮뚯;볙짨뛾:퓚맺폫맺횮볤,놾ퟔ평쇷뚯,쟒럇뗖늹뗄샻싊욽볛맘쾵돉솢ꆣꋙ놾컄퓚쫽샭췆떼맽돌훐쪡싔쇋튻킩늽훨,떫늻펰쿬헽뎣퓄뛁뫍샭뷢;뢽슼훐룸돶쇋룼캪쿪뺡뗄췆떼(평폚욪럹쯹쿞,컄뫳쎻폐쇐돶),룐탋좤헟뿉쿲ퟷ헟쯷좡ꆣ69
좽짺타ꆢ췵욷쇡:싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨퓚럖컶맽돌훐,돽샻싊췢,웤폠쯹폐뇤솿뚼닉폃ퟔ좻뛔쫽뗄탎쪽,쟒뚼틔폫쇣죅뚯(zero2disturbance)뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱뗄샫닮(deviations)탎쪽뇭쪾ꆣ쯹폐뫋탄맺뇤솿뚼뇪힢ꆰꆱ,뛸췢캧맺뇤솿퓲뇪틔ꆰiꆱ(i=1,2,ꆭ,N),춬쪱,뢡뚯췢캧맺(쪵탐뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄췢캧맺)뇤솿뚼뇪힢ꆰfꆱ,뚤힡췢캧맺뇤솿뚼뇪힢ꆰpꆱꆣ쇭췢,쾣산ퟖ쒸뻹듺뇭헽뗄뎣쫽ꆣ(뛾)ퟜ탨쟳ꆪퟜ릩룸쒣탍1.뫋탄맺뫋탄맺뗄ퟜ릩룸yc평뻍튵쮮욽nc뻶뚨,쟒싺ퟣ맦쒣놨돪뗝복맦싉,뿉붫웤뇭쪾캪:yc=(1-ꛁ)nc,0<ꛁ<1(1)ꆡꆡ뛸웤헦쪵ퟜ탨쟳퓲뻶뚨폚튻룶좫쟲탔뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꛋꆢ뫋탄맺뗄헦쪵폐킧믣싊z,틔벰뫋탄맺뗄헦쪵샻싊rc:yc=ꛂcꛋ-ꛄcz-ꛔrc(2)ꆡꆡ웤훐,0ꇜꛂcꇜ1뇭쪾IS돥믷ꛋ뛔뫋탄맺펰쿬뗄돌뛈,뿉돆캪ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쟣쿲ꆣꛄc퓲뻶뚨뫋탄맺ퟜ탨쟳훐틀삵폚헦쪵폐킧믣싊z뗄돌뛈,ꛄc풽듳뇭쏷ퟜ탨쟳풽틀삵폚믣싊,랴횮퓲랴쫇;ꛔ뗄ퟷ폃폫ꛄc샠쯆ꆣ퓚(2)쪽훐,ꛄcz잰쏦뗄럻뫅좡ꆰ-ꆱ뗄풭틲쫇:볙뚨퓚놾뿲볜쓚,컒쏇ퟜ쫇쪹폃틔췢캧맺믵뇒뇭쪾떥캻뫋탄맺믵뇒뗄믣싊뇪볛램,벴,뛔뫋탄맺뛸퇔쫇볤뷓뇪볛램,뛔췢캧맺뛸퇔쫇횱뷓뇪볛램ꆣ쯹틔,z뗄퓶듳틢캶ퟅ뫋탄맺믵뇒짽횵,듓뛸ퟜ탨쟳쿂붵ꆣ2.뢡뚯췢캧맺뢡뚯췢캧맺i폫뫋탄맺뻟폐쿠쯆뗄뺭볃뷡릹,쟒헦쪵샻싊뛔ퟜ탨쟳뗄ퟷ폃튲쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ틲듋,i맺뗄ퟜ릩룸뿉뇭쪾캪:yfi=(1-ꛁ)n(fi3)ꆡꆡ뛸i맺뗄ퟜ탨쟳춬퇹뻶뚨폚튻룶좫쟲탔뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꛋꆢ놾맺뗄쮫뇟헦쪵믣싊zi,틔벰놾맺뗄헦쪵샻싊rfi,뿉뇭쪾캪:y(fi=ꛂꛋf+ꛄfzfi-ꛔrfi4)웤훐,0ꇜꛂfꇜ1(=1,2,ꆭ,N1),쪽훐늿럖뇤솿뫍닎쫽쎻폐뇪쪾ꆰiꆱ,뇭쏷헢킩뇤솿뫍닎쫽늻틲뢡뚯췢캧맺뗄뇤뚯뛸뇤뚯,믲헟쮵,뛔쯹폐뢡뚯췢캧맺뚼쫇쿠춬뗄ꆣ폫(2)쪽쿠뇈,(4)쪽훐룃쿮(믣싊zi쿮)뗄럻뫅캪ꆰꆱ,틲캪,쮫뇟믣싊zi뗄퓶듳틢캶ퟅ뢡뚯췢캧맺i뗄믵뇒뇡횵,듓뛸떼훂ퟜ탨쟳짏짽ꆣ3.뚤힡췢캧맺뚤힡췢캧맺폫뢡뚯췢캧맺뻟폐쿠춬뗄뺭볃뷡릹,쯼쏇뗄쟸뇰퓚폚쯼늻쓜붫웤쮫뇟믣싊ퟷ캪펦뛔돥믷뗄헾닟릤뻟,뛸뇘탫톡퓱퓚쒳튻만뚨뗄쮮욽짏쪹놾뇒뚤힡뫋탄맺믵뇒ꆣ캪볲뇣웰볻,컒쏇폃뫋탄맺뗄헦쪵폐킧믣싊z듺쳦뚤힡췢캧맺j뗄쮫뇟헦쪵믣싊zpj,벴죃쯹폐뚤힡췢캧맺뗄믵뇒뚼내헕뫋탄맺헦쪵폐킧믣싊뗄쮮욽뚤힡웤믵뇒ꆣ퇏룱틢틥짏붲,헢늻쫇튻훖뚤힡믣싊훆,틲캪,뫋탄맺헦쪵폐킧믣싊뿉쓜믡쯦ퟅ쳥쾵쓚룷맺헦쪵쮫뇟믣싊뗄뇤뚯뛸뇤뚯ꆣ떫틔쿂죽룶샭평쪹뗃헢퇹뗄볙뚨뻟폐뫏샭탔:쫗쿈,퓚쿖쪵훐,평폚쫀뷧룷맺믵뇒뛒뫋탄맺믵뇒믣싊뎣뎣랢짺ퟅ랽쿲뫍럹뛈뻹늻춬뗄늨뚯,뺭맽튻뚨돌뛈뗄쿠뮥뗖쿻뫳,쪹뫋탄맺헦쪵폐킧믣싊뇈뷏컈뚨;웤듎,퓚쿖탐쳥쾵쿂,뚤힡믣싊훆폐탭뛠훖,ퟜ쳥뛸퇔,뚤힡믣싊훆늢늻쓜놣횤믣싊쮮욽튻돉늻뇤;퓙헟,튲쫇ퟮ맘볼뗄,컒쏇뗄퇐뺿쒿뗄늢늻퓚폚룸돶쿠맘뇤솿뗄뺫좷뷢,뛸쫇뾼달쿖탐쳥쾵쿂늻춬맺볒벯췅횮볤뗄헾닟탐캪맘쾵ꆣ틲듋,짏쫶볙뚨쪹뚤힡췢캧맺헾닟탐캪쫜떽풼쫸뗄탔훊쓜릻싺ퟣ컒쏇뗄퇐뺿튪쟳ꆣ퓚듋볙짨쿂,췢캧맺j뗄ퟜ릩룸뫍ퟜ탨쟳뿉틔럖뇰뇭쪾캪:70
2007쓪뗚10웚ypj=(1-ꛁ)np(j5)ypj=ꛂpꛋ+ꛄpz-ꛔrp(j6)ꆡꆡ웤훐,0ꇜꛂpꇜ1,rpj뇭쪾j맺뗄헦쪵샻싊(j=1,2,ꆭ,N2)ꆣ춬샭,쎻폐뇪쪾ꆰjꆱ뇤솿뫍닎쫽뛔쯹폐뚤힡췢캧맺뚼쫇쿠춬뗄ꆣ(죽)헾닟훆뚨헟뗄탐캪욫뫃폃ꮅn뇭쪾돤럖뻍튵쪱뗄뻍튵쮮욽,볙짨늻싛쫇뫋탄맺뮹쫇췢캧맺뗄헾닟훆뚨헟뚼틔ힷ쟳돤럖뻍튵캪ퟔ벺뗄헾닟쒿뇪,뮻퇔횮,뚼틔쪵쿖ퟔ짭뗄쪵볊뻍튵쮮욽n폫쒿뇪뻍튵쮮욽ꮅn횮샫닮(n-ꮅn)뗄뻸뛔횵ퟮ킡뮯캪룹놾쒿뇪,룃쒿뇪튲뿉뇭쪾캪m12in(n-ꮅ2n),뛸1(n-ꮅn)퓲쿠떱폚쿠펦맺22볒뗄쯰쪧몯쫽ꆣ죴볙뚨룷맺퓚돤럖뻍튵쪱늻듦퓚쪧튵,퓲ꮅn=0ꆣ헢퇹,컒쏇뻍뿉틔뗃떽룷맺쯰쪧몯쫽뗄뻟쳥탎쪽:뫋탄맺뗄쯰쪧몯쫽캪:1lc=(n2c-ꮅ2112nc)=21n2c=(ꛂ2cꛋ-ꛄcz-ꛔrc)(7)(1-ꛁ2)웤헾닟훆뚨헟뗄헾닟쒿뇪벴캪min(lc)ꆣ뢡뚯췢캧맺뗄쯰쪧몯쫽캪:1l(fi=211nn)2fi-fi=21n2fi=22(ꛂꛋf+ꛄfzfi-ꛔ2r)(fi8)(1-ꛁ)웤헾닟훆뚨헟뗄헾닟쒿뇪벴캪min(l)fiꆣ뚤힡췢캧맺뗄쯰쪧몯쫽캪:1212112lp(j=n2pj-np)(ꛂj=n2pj=2pꛋ-ꛄpz-ꛔrp)(j9)(1-ꛁ2)웤헾닟훆뚨헟뗄헾닟쒿뇪벴캪min(lp)jꆣ(쯄)룷맺볒벯췅뗄랴펦몯쫽뫋탄맺뗄랴펦몯쫽Rc캪:ꛄcꛂcrc=-ꛔz+ꛔꛋ(10)ꆡꆡ뢡뚯췢캧맺i뗄랴펦몯쫽Rfi캪:ꛄꛂffrfi=ꛔzfi+ꛔꛋ(11)ꆡꆡ쇮NN1111Nꇆrfi=rf,1Nꇆzfi=zfi=11i=1ꆡꆡ평폚뢡뚯췢캧맺횮볤쫇뛔돆뗄,벴뻟폐쿠춬뗄ꛄf뫍ꛂ(f틠벴,룷뢡뚯췢캧맺뻟폐쿠춬뗄헾닟탐캪쒣쪽,쟒쯹퓢쫜ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뗄맦쒣튲쿠춬),틲듋,뿉틔룹뻝(11)쪽뛔N1룶뢡뚯췢캧맺뗄랴펦몯쫽R(fii=1,2,ꆭ,N1)쿠볓늢볲떥욽뻹ꆣ듓뛸뗃떽N1룶뢡뚯췢캧맺ퟷ캪튻룶헻쳥(믲돆캪뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅)뗄랴펦몯쫽Rf:ꛄꛂffrf=ꛔzf+ꛔꛋ(12)ꆡꆡ뚤힡췢캧맺j뗄랴펦몯쫽Rpj캪:71
좽짺타ꆢ췵욷쇡:싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨ꛄpꛂprpj=ꛔz+ꛔꛋ(13)ꆡꆡ폫뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅뗄쟩탎샠쯆,컒쏇쇮N21Nꇆrpj=rp2j=1ꆡꆡ뷸뛸뿉뗃뚤힡췢캧맺벯췅뗄랴펦몯쫽Rp캪:ꛄpꛂprp=ꛔz+ꛔꛋ(14)죽ꆢ맘폚쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄쳖싛떱쳥쾵쓚룷맺쏦쇙튻듎좫쟲탔뗄IS돥믷쪱,죴붫헦쪵샻싊쫓캪늩?뗄톡퓱뇤솿,퓲뿉틔룹뻝짏쫶뗄랴펦몯쫽살에뛏뫋탄맺뫍췢캧맺횮볤쫇럱듦퓚쓉쪲뻹뫢,틔벰듦퓚퓵퇹뗄쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ쫗쿈,떱쫀뷧쯹퓢폶뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷캪ꛋ쪱,뫋탄맺쯹쏦쇙뗄돥믷캪ꛂcꛋ;쎿룶뢡뚯췢캧맺쯹쏦쇙뗄돥믷캪ꛂꛋf;쎿룶뚤힡췢캧맺쯹쏦쇙뗄돥믷캪ꛂpꛋꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,퓚컒쏇뗄럖컶뿲볜쓚,캪쪹컊쳢볲떥뮯,볙뚨퓚뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅뫍뚤힡췢캧맺벯췅쓚늿,쎿룶돉풱맺쯹퓢쫜뗄돥믷럖뇰쫇쿠춬뗄ꆣ평폚쯹폐맺볒쯹쫜돥믷횮뫍펦캪ꛋ,틲듋뿉틔뗃떽:ꛂc+N1ꛂf+N2ꛂp=1(15)ꆡꆡ뛸ꛂcꆢꛂf뫍ꛂp뗄듳킡퓲럖뇰뻶뚨ퟅ뫋탄맺뫍솽룶췢캧맺벯췅뗄랴펦쟺쿟RcꆢRf뫍Rp뗄뷘뻠ꆣ웤듎,죽룶맺볒벯췅뛔믣싊헾닟뗄틀삵돌뛈ꛄcꆢꛄf뫍ꛄp퓲럖뇰뻶뚨ퟅ죽쳵랴펦쟺쿟뗄킱싊ꆣ(튻)뫋탄맺쫇쇬떼헟뗄쟩탎볙뚨뫋탄맺샠쯆폚쮹쯾뛻늮룱쇬떼헟,평폚쯼듓늻닙ퟝ췢믣쫐뎡뫍믣싊,틲듋,떱쏦쇙튻듎ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쪱,쯼붫쫗쿈톡퓱ퟔ벺뫏틢뗄샻싊쮮욽틔뗖쿻돥믷뿉쓜듸살뗄뺭볃늨뚯ꆣ뛸췢캧맺퓲횻쓜룹뻝뫋탄맺뗄탐캪살뻶뚨ퟔ벺뗄탐캪ꆣ1.죴ꛂp<ꛂf<ꛂc듋쪱,뚤힡췢캧맺ꆢ뢡뚯췢캧맺뫍뫋탄맺쯹퓢쫜뗄IS돥믷틀듎퓶듳ꆣ퓚듋훖쟩탎쿂,죽쳵랴펦쟺쿟뿉쓜쿠붻폚늻춬뗄죽뗣(춼1)ꆢ늻춬뗄솽뗣(춼2)믲헟춬튻뗣(춼3)ꆣ죧춼1,쏦뛔IS돥믷,뫋탄맺쫗쿈ퟔ벺뫏틢뗄헦쪵샻싊쮮욽3rc,듓뛸뻶뚨쇋뫋탄맺뫏틢뗄믣싊쮮욽캪3zꆣ평폚쎿튻룶뚤힡췢캧맺뚼쫜떽믣싊헾닟뗄풼쫸,벴톡퓱폫뫋탄맺헦쪵폐킧믣싊쿠튻훂뗄믣싊쮮욽ꆣ헢뻍튪쟳뚤힡췢캧맺벯췅뗄랴펦쟺쿟Rp폫뫋탄맺뗄랴펦쟺쿟Rc쿠붻폚A뗣ꆣ헢퇹,룹뻝랴펦몯쫽(10)뫍(13),틔벰rc=3rc=rp,z=3z뿉뗃:ꛔꛂcꛄp-ꛂpꛄcꛋ=ꛄp-ꛄ3(16)crcꆡꆡ짏쪽뇭쏷,횻튪뚤힡췢캧맺늻럅웺뚤힡뫋탄맺믵뇒뗄믣싊헾닟쒿뇪,웤샻싊헾닟쟣쿲ꛔ뻍뇘탫쯦ퟅ뫋탄맺샻싊3rc뗄룄뇤뛸룄뇤ꆣ뮻퇔횮,뇘좻쪧좥웤믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔ꆣ뻍뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅뛸퇔,평폚쯼쎻폐뚤힡믣싊뗄풼쫸,틲듋뿉틔퇘ퟅ웤랴펦쟺쿟Rf톡퓱ퟔ벺뫏틢뗄샻싊폫믣싊ퟩ뫏ꆣ퓚춼1훐,Rf폫Rp뫍Rc럖뇰붻폚BꆢC솽뗣,헢솽뗣뒦뗄샻싊폫믣싊ퟩ뫏듺뇭뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅럖뇰폫뚤힡췢캧맺벯췅뫍뫋탄맺뿉틔쪵쿖ꆰ떥뛀ꆱ뗄뻹뫢ꆣ죴톡퓱B뗣,퓲듺뇭뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅ퟜ쳥짏톡퓱쇋뷏뗍샻싊폫뷏룟ꆰ뇒횵ꆱ뗄ퟩ뫏;죴톡퓱C뗣,퓲헽뫃쿠랴ꆣ뾼싇떽뢡뚯췢캧맺횻폫뫋탄맺뷸탐쎳틗뗄볙짨,퓲B뗣쫇쎻폐틢틥뗄,쯼룼쟣쿲폚톡퓱C뗣ퟷ캪ퟔ벺뗄헾닟ퟩ뫏,틔뇣폫뫋탄맺듯돉뻹뫢ꆣ틅몶뗄쫇,벴쪹헢퇹,죽헟튲컞램쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ틲캪,퓚72
2007쓪뗚10웚뚤힡췢캧맺벯췅폫뫋탄맺횮볤뗄ꆰ쮫뇟폐킧믣싊ꆱ캪3z뗄쟩뿶쿂,횻폐떱뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅폫뫋탄맺횮볤뗄ꆰ쮫뇟폐킧믣싊ꆱ튲쫇3z쪱,닅쓜놣횤뫋탄맺쪵쿖뫏틢뗄헦쪵폐킧믣싊캪3zꆣ퓚춼1쯹쪾뗄쟩탎쿂,뫋탄맺뫍뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅뚼쾣췻ퟔ벺뗄믵뇒놻뗍맀(A뗣뫍C뗣럖뇰듺뇭뫋탄맺뫍뢡뚯췢캧맺뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱)ꆣ평폚듦퓚샻닮3(rc-rꇤc),퓚놾ퟔ평쇷뚯쟒럇뗖늹샻싊욽볛돉솢뗄쟩뿶쿂,놾뗄쇷뚯붫훰붥쪹A뫍C퇘ퟅ쟺쿟Rc쿲AꆢC횮볤뗄쒳튻뗣틆뚯늢ퟮ훕쪵쿖쳥쾵뗄컈뚨ꆣ떫헢튻뗷뷚믺훆쫇늻뛔돆뗄ꆪꆪꆪ뫋탄맺횻쫇뷸튻늽뗘룄뇤쇋샻춼1ꆡ컞램쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄쟩탎(튻)ꆡ싊쮮욽,늢쎻폐룄뇤ퟔ짭뗄헾닟욫뫃(평ꛄc뻶뚨뗄Rc뗄킱싊),뛸뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅퓲뇘탫퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏컾짼ퟔ짭뗄헾닟욫뫃(틲캪,C뗣뗄틆뚯떼훂쇋쟺쿟Rf뗄탽)ꆣ퓚짏쫶뗷뷚맽돌훐,뚤힡췢캧맺떱좻튲뇘탫놻뚯뗘룺ퟅ뫋탄맺뗄뗷헻뛸뗷헻,헢쿠떱폚ꆰ뗚뛾듎ꆱ쪧좥쇋믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔ꆣ햧뾴웰살,퓚헢튻뗷헻맽돌훐,뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅폫뚤힡췢캧맺벯췅튻퇹즥쪧쇋헾닟뛀솢탔ꆣ떫쪵훊짏췪좫늻춬,틲캪,룹뻝잰컄뗄볙짨,쎿튻룶뚤힡췢캧맺폫뚤힡췢캧맺ퟷ캪튻룶벯췅퓚헾닟탐캪짏쎻폐닮틬,벴뇘탫쯦ퟅ뫋탄맺뇤뚯뛸뇤뚯,쎻폐죎뫎뛀솢탔,뻍쿠떱폚튲뇘탫쪹웤랴펦쟺쿟쿠붻폚A뗣믲웤뫳뗄뻹뫢뗣튻퇹)ꆣ떫떥룶뢡뚯췢캧맺폫뢡뚯췢캧맺ퟷ캪튻룶헻쳥(벯췅)퓚헾닟탐캪짏쫇뿉틔듦퓚닮틬뗄ꆣ틲캪,폐킧믣싊zf폫쮫뇟믣싊z(fii=1,2,ꆭ,N1)횮볤쫇쯣쫵욽뻹쫽뗄맘쾵,퓚뢡뚯췢캧맺쮫뇟믣싊횮볤듦퓚뷏듳랽닮뗄쟩뿶쿂,횻탨쮫뇟믣싊횵뷏캪벫뛋뗄맺볒ퟶ돶뗷헻뻍폐뿉쓜쪹랴펦쟺쿟Rf듯떽뻹뫢캻훃,뛸컞탨쎿튻룶뢡뚯췢캧맺뚼ퟶ돶춬늽뗄뗷헻ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,뛠쫽뢡뚯췢캧맺벴뿉캬돖ퟔ짭뗄헾닟뛀솢탔ꆣ뮻퇔횮,뻍죧춬늢늻탨튪쎿튻룶뢡뚯췢캧맺뗄랴펦쟺쿟뚼쿠붻폚튻뗣튻퇹ꆣ볲뛸퇔횮,떱믵뇒쳥쾵쓚맺볒쏦쇙튻듎IS돥믷쪱,죴뫋탄맺폫췢캧맺(벯췅)횮볤탎돉쇋죧춼1쓇퇹뗄뺭볃맘쾵쪱,뇋듋횮볤컞램쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢,횻쓜ퟶ뷸튻늽뗄뗷헻ꆣ퓚춼2훐,쯤좻죽쳵랴펦쟺쿟뻟쳥뗄쿠붻랽쪽늻춬폚춼1,떫폫춼1폐ퟅ쿠춬뗄믹놾뺭볃맘쾵ꆣ폃춬퇹뗄럖컶랽램뻍뿉쮵쏷헢훖쟩탎쿂죔좻컞램쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢,뛸뇘탫ퟶ돶뷸튻늽뗄뗷헻ꆣ춼2ꆡ컞램쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄쟩탎(뛾)춼3ꆡ쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄쟩탎ꆡꆡ뛸퓚춼3뗄쟩탎쿂,죽쳵랴펦쟺쿟쿠붻폚춬튻뗣Aꆣ듋쪱,죽룶맺볒벯췅늻떫뚼쓜릻쪵쿖룷ퟔ쯰쪧몯쫽ퟮ킡뮯뗄쒿뇪뫍뚯믺,튲쓜캬돖룷ퟔ뗄헾닟욫뫃늻뇤ꆣ쯹틔,듋쪱쎻폐맺볒풸틢퓙ퟶ뷸튻늽뗄뗷헻,듓뛸쪵쿖쇋쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ캨튻탨튪잿뗷뗄쫇,쓜릻듯돉헢퇹뗄ힴ첬,뫜뿉쓜쫇뚤힡췢캧맺73
좽짺타ꆢ췵욷쇡:싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨컾짼ퟔ짭헾닟뛀솢탔뗄뷡맻ꆣ2.죴ꛂp<ꛂc<ꛂf퓚헢훖쟩탎쿂,뢡뚯췢캧맺붫퓢쫜뷏뫋탄맺뫍뚤힡췢캧맺뚼룼듳뗄IS돥믷(ꛂpꛋ<ꛂcꛋ<ꛂꛋ)fꆣ듋쪱,죽쳵랴펦쟺쿟횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉쓜돶쿖죧춼4믲춼5뗄쟩탎ꆣ퓚춼4훐,평폚뫋탄맺쫗쿈톡퓱쇋샻싊쮮욽3rc쟒뚤힡췢캧맺뿉쓜컾짼쇋ퟔ벺뗄헾닟뛀솢탔,쯹틔Rc뫍Rp쿠붻폚A뗣ꆣ뛸Rf컞램폫Rc쿠붻(틲캪Rf뗄킱싊캪헽),횻폫Rp쿠붻폚B뗣(틲캪Rf뇈Rp룼욽첹)ꆣ죧잰쯹쫶,평폚뢡뚯췢캧맺뗄뿧맺쎳틗훷튪랢짺퓚웤폫뫋탄맺횮볤,틲듋B뗣늢늻쫇쯻쏇뗄ퟮ폅ퟩ뫏ꆣ쿠뇈횮쿂,쯻쏇룼풸틢톡퓱춼훐C뗣ퟷ캪ퟔ벺뗄헾닟ퟩ뫏뗣,틲캪,퓚헢튻뗣뒦,쓜릻쪵쿖믣싊뗄뻹뫢ꆣ좻뛸,평폚샻닮뷏듳,뷸튻늽뗄뗷헻퓚쯹쓑쏢ꆣ뿶쟒,퓚럇뻹뫢뗄ힴ뿶쿂,뺭볃뇤솿쮮욽뗄ퟮ훕쪵쿖늢늻좡뻶폚뢡뚯췢캧맺뗄헾닟훆뚨헟,틲캪,쯻쏇튻냣쟩뿶쿂늢늻훷뚯룉풤췢믣쫐뎡ꆣ컞싛죧뫎,평폚뢡뚯췢캧맺쏦쇙뷏듳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷,뺭볃ퟔ짭뻟폐튻훖쓚퓚솦솿췆뚯ퟅ뢡뚯췢캧맺헾닟퇘ퟅRf쟺쿟쿲폒틆뚯,쪹뗃뢡뚯췢캧맺뺭볃돊쿖샻싊룟웳ꆢ볛룱짏짽ꆢ믵뇒뇡횵뗄첬쫆ꆣ헢훖ힴ뿶뫜늻컈뚨,횻폐뺭맽튻뛎쪱볤,듽뷏듳뗄탨쟳돥믷훰붥죵뮯횮뫳,듙쪹Rf쟺쿟쿲쿂욽틆늢붻폚A뗣,랽폐뿉쓜쪵쿖맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쓚늿뺭볃뗄컈뚨(쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢)ꆣ뮻퇔횮,춼4뗄ힴ첬쫇늻컈뚨뗄ꆣ춼4ꆡ컞램쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄쟩탎(죽)춼5ꆡ컞램쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄쟩탎(쯄)ꆡꆡ퓚맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵샺쪷짏,퓸랢짺맽짏쫶샠쯆뗄쟩탎:1989쓪솽뗂춳튻뫳,뗂맺틔벰웤쯻튻킩얷쏋맺볒틲쫜솽뗂춳튻쯹훂뗄뻞듳ퟜ탨쟳돥믷뗄펰쿬,쪹얷쏋탭뛠맺볒뺭볃돊쿖샠쯆폚춼훐B뗣뢽뷼뗄쟩탎ꆪꆪꆪ퓚쯦뫳뗄벸쓪샯,헢킩쿠맘맺볒뗄샻싊튻횱뒦폚풶룟폚쏀풪샻싊뗄쮮욽,뛸뗂맺십뿋퓚1990ꆪ1993쓪볤뛔쏀풪뇡횵,듓뛸쪹웤뷸돶뿚쎳틗쪼훕뇭쿖캪쮳닮ꆣ퓚춼5훐,Rf늻떫컞램폫Rc쿠붻,튲늻쓜폫Rp쿠붻,쪹쫀뷧뺭볃룼늻컈뚨ꆣ튪쪵쿖뻹뫢,늻떫튪쟳뢡뚯췢캧맺쯹쏦쇙뗄ퟜ탨쟳훰붥쿂붵,튲튪쟳뢡뚯췢캧맺헾닟훆뚨헟룄뇤웤헾닟욫뫃,쪹Rf뇤뗃룼볓욽첹ꆣ볲퇔횮,듋훖쟩탎튲춬퇹쓑틔듯돉쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ(뛾)뫋탄맺늻쫇쇬떼헟뗄쟩탎춨맽짏쫶럖컶늻쓑랢쿖,평폚뫋탄맺뻟폐킱싊캪뢺뗄랴펦쟺쿟,뛸췢캧맺뚼뻟폐킱싊캪헽뗄랴펦쟺쿟,틲듋,죧맻췢캧맺퓢폶뇈뫋탄맺룼듳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷,퓲쓉쪲뻹뫢붫뇘뚨컞램쪵쿖ꆣ컒쏇뷶첽쳖뫋탄맺퓢폶ퟮ듳IS돥믷뗄쟩탎ꆣ뾼싇춼3뗄쟩탎,평폚뚤힡췢캧맺럅웺쇋믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔,쯹틔쯼놻업돽퓚늩?횮췢,퓚뫋탄맺폫뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅횮볤,죴뫋탄맺늻틔쇬떼헟짭럝ퟔ뻓,퓲쯻쏇횮볤붫햹뾪샠쯆폚맅억쪽뗄늩?ꆣ벴쮫랽뚼횻룹뻝랴펦쟺쿟뗄붻뗣A살뻶뚨ퟔ벺뗄헾닟ퟩ뫏뗣,듓뛸,뫋탄맺샻싊쮮욽뗈폚뢡74
2007쓪뗚10웚뚯췢캧맺뗄욽뻹샻싊쮮욽,쮫랽쪵쿖쇋뻹뫢,뛸뚤힡췢캧맺횻뫃놻뚯뷓쫜헢튻뗣,쪹웤랴펦쟺쿟Rp춨맽A뗣ꆣ헢퇹,뫋탄맺ꆢ뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅뫍뚤힡췢캧맺벯췅횮볤벴뿉쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ뫋탄맺럅웺쇬떼헟뗘캻뗄뻙뚯뿉틔놻쫓캪뻟폐햹뾪맺볊믵뇒헾닟뫏ퟷ뗄틢풸ꆣ웤웴쪾틢틥퓚폚,튪쪵쿖맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뗄컈뚨퓋탐,볓잿맺볊뫏ퟷ뻟폐쪮럖훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣ(죽)쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄돤럖쳵볾짏쫶맘폚뻹뫢뗄쳖싛뇭쏷:쫗쿈,떱쫀뷧뺭볃평뫋탄맺ꆢ뢡뚯췢캧맺뫍뚤힡췢캧맺ퟩ돉쪱,맺볊뺭볃쫇럱쓜릻쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢,퇏훘틀삵폚룷맺쯹쫜뺭볃돥믷뗄듳킡벰웤쿠뮥맘쾵ꆣ떱뫋탄맺뻟폐폅쿈톡퓱헾닟뇤솿횵뗄듳킡뗄쳘좨쪱,쪵쿖뻹뫢뗄튻룶뇘튪쳵볾쫇뫋탄맺퓢폶쿠뛔룼듳뗄뺭볃돥믷ꆣ듋쪱,죧맻뚤힡췢캧맺뫍늿럖뢡뚯췢캧맺풸틢럅웺헾닟뛀솢탔,퓲뺭볃뻹뫢뇣뿉틔쪵쿖ꆣ웤듎,뚤힡췢캧맺쓜릻캬돖뚤힡믣싊훆뗄뇘튪쳵볾폐솽룶:웤튻,풸틢럅웺웤믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔;웤뛾,퓢폶뇈뫋탄맺룼킡뗄뺭볃돥믷ꆣ퓙헟,떱뢡뚯췢캧맺늻풸럅웺ퟔ벺뗄헾닟뛀솢탔쪱,죧맻뫋탄맺퓢쫜쿠뛔ퟮ듳뗄뺭볃돥믷,쟒풸틢볓잿폫뢡뚯췢캧맺횮볤뗄맺볊뫏ퟷ(럅웺웤쇬떼헟뗘캻),퓲뻹뫢춬퇹쓜릻쪵쿖ꆣퟛ짏쯹쫶,퓚놾컄뗄럖컶뿲볜쓚,쪵쿖쓉쪲뻹뫢뗄돤럖쳵볾캪:죴뫋탄맺쫇쇬떼헟,퓲떱쿂쇐쳵볾싺ퟣ쪱쓉쪲뻹뫢벴뿉쪵쿖:(1)뫋탄맺퓢폶ퟮ듳뗄IS돥믷;(2)뫋탄맺폫뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅횮볤햹뾪샠쯆폚쮹쯾뛻늮룱쪽뗄늩?(늿럖뢡뚯췢캧맺풸틢럅웺믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔)ꆣ죴뫋탄맺늻쫇쇬떼헟,퓲떱쿂쇐쳵볾싺ퟣ쪱쓉쪲뻹뫢벴뿉쪵쿖:(1)뫋탄맺퓢폶ퟮ듳뗄IS돥믷;(2)뫋탄맺폫뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅횮볤햹뾪샠쯆폚맅억늩?쪽뗄늩?(뫋탄맺풸틢룹뻝랴펦쟺쿟뗄붻뗣살뻶뚨ퟔ벺뗄샻싊쮮욽)ꆣ쯄ꆢꆰ뚤힡췢캧맺ꆱ럅웺뚤힡믣싊훆뗄쳵볾뫍쪱믺퓚1997ꆪ1998쓪뗄뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺횮잰,뛠쫽뚫퇇맺볒톡퓱쇋쪵훊짏뗄뚤힡쏀풪믣싊훆;캣믺횮뫳훁뷱,헢킩맺볒뚼럗럗럅웺쇋뚤힡훆ꆣ헢튻쿖쿳뗄닺짺폫뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺놾짭쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ맘폚뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺랢짺뗄풭틲,튻횱틔살놶쫜맺쓚췢톧헟맘힢,쿠맘컄쿗뿉캽몹얣돤뚰ꆣ믹놾짏듯돉뗄릲쪶쫇,듓캣믺맺뗄뺭볃믹뒡짏뾴(쓚틲),훷튪쫇평폚듦퓚ꆰ풭ퟯꆱ,듓뛸ꆰ몦엂뢡뚯ꆱ,벴쯹캽ꆰ풭ퟯ싛ꆱ뫍ꆰ몦엂뢡뚯싛ꆱ;듓췢틲뾴,웰돵훷튪쫇쫜떽쇋맺볊폎뿌틢뗄춶믺릥믷,듋뫳퓲쫇춨맽룷훖캣믺뒫능쟾뗀늨벰웤쯻맺볒ꆣ놾늿럖훷튪쫇퓚짏쫶맘폚쓉쪲뻹뫢럖컶뗄믹뒡짏뷸탐샭싛럖컶ꆣ첽쳖떱뚤힡췢캧맺퓢쫜튻듎탨쟳돥믷쪱,퓚퓵퇹뗄쳵볾쿂쯼믡톡퓱럅웺뚤힡뫋탄맺믵뇒뗄믣싊헾닟ꆣ룹뻝잰쏦뗄럖컶,퓚폐킩쟩뿶쿂,벴쪹뚤힡췢캧맺j풸틢럅웺ퟔ짭뗄믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔,튲컞램쪵쿖뚤힡믣싊뗄헾닟쒿뇪(zpj=z)ꆣ샽죧,떱ꛂc<ꛂp<ꛂf,믲헟ꛂf<ꛂc<ꛂp,믲헟ꛂc<ꛂf<ꛂp쪱,벴떱뚤힡췢캧맺퓢폶뇈뫋탄맺룼듳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쪱,웤랴펦쟺쿟컞싛죧뫎뚼컞램폫뫋탄맺뗄랴펦쟺쿟쿠붻,듓뛸늻쓜싺ퟣzpj=z뗄헾닟쒿뇪ꆣ퓚쿖쪵훐,샠쯆쟩탎늢늻짙볻,쯼쏇훷튪랢짺폚쳘뚨뗄믵뇒캣믺믲뷰죚캣믺뮷뺳쿂ꆣ샽죧,1997쓪뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺훐뗄첩맺,벴쪹듳럹뛈쳡룟샻싊,믲쪵탐놾맜훆뚼컞램ퟨ횹첩뗄뇡횵ꆣ쯹늻춬뗄횻쫇떼훂헢튻ힴ뿶돶쿖뗄풭틲튪뇈놾뿲볜훐뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷룼볓뢴퓓뛸틑ꆣ벴쪹짏쫶쟩뿶늻랢짺,뚤힡췢캧맺튲폐뿉쓜럅웺뚤힡훆,헢쫇놾늿럖럖컶뗄훘뗣ꆣ캪쇋쪹럖컶룼볓퇏뷷뫍짮죫,컒쏇쫗쿈뛔뚤힡췢캧맺뗄쯰쪧몯쫽(12)뷸탐튻킩뇘튪뗄탞헽ꆣ좻뫳퓙뷸탐뇘튪뗄럖컶뫍쳖싛ꆣ75
좽짺타ꆢ췵욷쇡:싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨(튻)뛔쯰쪧몯쫽뗄탞헽뛔뚤힡췢캧맺뗄쯰쪧몯쫽뷸탐탞헽뗄믹놾쮼쿫퓚폚:벴쪹뚤힡췢캧맺럅웺믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔뫳폐뿉쓜쪵쿖폫뫋탄맺횮볤뗄뻹뫢(벴폐쓜솦캬돖뚤힡믣싊훆),튲듦퓚쯼뻶뚨늻퓙뚤힡뫋탄맺믵뇒뗄뿉쓜탔,풭틲쫇캬돖뚤힡쫇탨튪횧뢶돉놾뗄ꆣ떱퓢폶ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쪱,뚤힡췢캧맺쫇럱럅웺뚤힡믣싊훆,훷튪좡뻶폚럅웺뚤힡뗄쫕틦폫캬돖뚤힡뗄돉놾횮볤뗄좨뫢ꆣ죴쫕틦킡폚돉놾,퓲쯼톡퓱볌탸뚤힡,랴횮,쯼붫럅웺뚤힡ꆣ캪볲뇣웰볻,헢샯볙뚨:뛔쎿룶뚤힡췢캧맺살쮵,캬돖뚤힡뚼탨튪횧뢶튻룶쿠춬뗄만뚨돉놾Cꆣ뛸쟒,뚤힡췢캧맺풸틢횧뢶헢튻만뚨돉놾ꆣ헢퇹,뚤힡췢캧맺j뗄쯰쪧몯쫽뿉탞헽캪:112Lp(ꛂj=2pꛋ-ꛄpz-ꛔrp)j+CI(j17)(1-ꛁ2)ꆡꆡ쟒0,zpjꇙz;Ij=1,zpj=z.ꆡꆡ웤훐ꆰ,zpjꇙzꆱ뇭쪾ꆰ럅웺뚤힡ꆱꆰ,zpj=zꆱ뇭쪾ꆰ캬돖뚤힡ꆱꆣ(뛾)럅웺뚤힡뗄쳵볾폫쪱믺평폚(17)쫇튻룶럖뛎몯쫽,룸쫽톧짏뗄뒦샭듸살쇋늻뇣ꆣ떫뾼싇떽늻싛맺럅웺뚤힡폫럱,떱폶떽튻듎IS돥믷쪱,헾닟훆뚨헟뚼붫쫗쿈틔탎죧(18)뗄랴펦몯쫽(폫(13)쿠뷼)뛔뫋탄맺뗄헾닟톡퓱ퟶ돶랴펦,틲듋컒쏇붫틔랴펦몯쫽(18)뫍(10)캪믹뒡뷸탐럖컶:ꛄpꛂprpj=ꛔzpj+ꛔꛋ(18)ꆡꆡ죧춼6,폫잰쏦뗄럖컶쿠춬,떱뫋탄맺쏦쇙뇈j맺룼듳뗄IS돥믷쪱,컞싛뫋탄맺쫇틔쇬떼헟뗄짭럝톡퓱뫏틢샻싊3rc,뮹쫇폫뢡뚯췢캧맺릲춬뻶뚨ퟔ벺뗄ퟮ폅헾닟ퟩ뫏,뚼폃뗣A뇭쪾웤ퟮ훕뗄헾닟ퟩ뫏뗣ꆣ퓚춼6훐,볙짨짤쿟CA캪ꇏBCD뗄럖뷇쿟,뛸ꇏBCA뫍ꇏACD뗄뮡뛈쫽듺뇭뚤힡췢캧맺j틲캬돖뚤힡믣싊훆뛸뇘탫횧뢶뗄만뚨돉놾ꆣ캪쇋냑뻸뛔쫽탎쪽뗄만뚨돉놾C뮯캪뷇뗄뮡뛈쫽,컒쏇좡:ꇏBCA=ꇏACD=arctanC춼6ꆡ뚤힡췢캧맺럅웺뚤힡뗄쳵볾폫쪱믺ꆡ(19)ꆡꆡ퓲뷇폲BCD벴뇭쪾j맺풸틢캬돖뚤힡훆뗄쟸폲ꆪꆪꆪ죴j맺뗄랴펦쟺쿟Rpj실죫룃쟸폲(늻싛쫇퓚CA뗄짏랽뮹쫇쿂랽),퓲뇭쏷j맺풸틢틔럅웺늿럖헾닟뛀솢탔캪듺볛뛸캬돖뚤힡훆(룄뇤랴펦쟺쿟뗄킱싊,쪹웤탽떽폫CA훘뫏뗄캻훃)ꆣ퓚헢샯,컒쏇볙뚨랴펦쟺쿟(죧춼훐뗄Rp)j폫CA쯹탎돉볐뷇뗄뮡뛈쫽뇭쪾j맺럅웺뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦ꆣ틲캪캬돖뚤힡뗄돉놾쫇만뚨뗄,쯹틔,죴랴펦쟺쿟실죫짏쫶뷇폲,퓲뇭쏷럅웺뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦킡폚캬돖뚤힡훆뗄돉놾ꆣ탨튪잿뗷뗄쫇,j맺쫇풸틢횧뢶만뚨돉놾arctanC뛸캬돖뚤힡훆뗄ꆣ횻폐떱럅웺뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦듳폚룃만뚨돉놾쪱,쯼닅폐럅웺뚤힡뗄뚯믺ꆣퟜ횮,횻튪랴펦쟺쿟실죫뷇폲BCD,j맺뻍믡캬돖뚤힡뫋탄맺믵뇒뗄믣싊훆뛈ꆣ쿠랴,죴랴펦쟺쿟(죧춼훐Rꇤp)j실퓚뷇폲BCD횮췢,퓲랴펦쟺쿟폫CA볐뷇뗄뮡뛈쫽붫듳폚76
2007쓪뗚10웚arctanC,벴럅웺뚤힡뗄쫕틦듳폚캬돖뚤힡뗄돉놾ꆣ듓뛸j맺붫뇘뚨믡럅웺뚤힡ꆣ헢퇹,뛔폚룸뚨뗄ꛂp(뇘탫놣횤춼6훐뗄C뗣캻폚ퟝ훡짏3rc뗄쿂랽,벴횻폐떱싺ퟣꛂpꛔꛋ<3rc쪱ꆣ),j맺캬돖뚤힡뗄룅싊캪:2arctanC4arctanCPj=ꛐΠ=2ꛐ(20)ꆡꆡ뛸뻶뚨럅웺뚤힡믣싊훆뗄룅싊퓲캪1-Pjꆣ쿔좻,룃룅싊횻좡뻶폚돉놾C뗄듳킡,C풽듳,퓲j맺캬돖뚤힡뗄뿉쓜탔(룅싊)튲풽듳ꆣ헢쯆뫵폐킩웦맖ꆪꆪꆪ퓵쎴돉놾풽룟캬돖뚤힡뗄룅싊좴풽듳쓘?ꆪꆪꆪ웤쪵늢늻쎬뛜ꆣ쪵훊짏,헢샯뗄돉놾C듺뇭j맺풸틢횧뢶뗄돉놾,튲뿉틔샭뷢캪웤캬돖뚤힡뗄ꆰ뻶탄ꆱꆣ뛔폚튻룶뺭볃뒦폚뻹뫢ힴ첬(뚤힡훆뗄돉놾뗈폚쫕틦)뗄뾪럅뺭볃쳥뛸퇔,뚤힡훆쯹닺짺뗄ꆰ쎪ꆱ릦쓜폐샻폚쿻돽맺쓚춨헍풤웚,퓶잿맺쓚췢쫐뎡뛔폚놾뇒뫍믵뇒헾닟뗄탅탄,듓뛸폐킧듙뷸놾맺맺볊뺭볃붻틗뗄붡뾵랢햹;뛔폚뻟폐뷰죚든죵탔뗄믵뇒떱뻖뛸퇔,뚤힡훆튲뇜쏢쇋틲헾닟쪧떱뿉쓜듸살뗄뺭볃쯰쪧;ퟜ횮,뚤힡훆뗄폅풽탔헽쫇쪵탐뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦ꆣ뛸뚤힡훆튲퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏퓬돉쇋믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔뗄즥쪧,듓뛸뎣뎣쪹뗃맺쓚뫪맛뺭볃쒿뇪쓑틔듯떽틢풸뗄쮮욽,헢쫇쪵탐뚤힡훆뗄돉놾ꆣ횵뗃잿뗷뗄쫇,떱뚤힡췢캧맺퓚뻶뚨쫇럱럅웺뚤힡훆쪱,쯼쯹좨뫢뗄풸틢횧뢶뗄만뚨돉놾C뗄헦헽몬틥쫇짏쫶쪵탐뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦ꆣ틲캪,웤튻,헽쫇평폚뚤힡훆쓜릻듸살짏쫶쫕틦,닅쪹뗃믵뇒떱뻖ퟶ돶쪵탐뚤힡훆뗄톡퓱;웤뛾,떱뺭볃뒦폚뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱,짏쫶쫕틦뫍돉놾쫇쿠뗈뗄,퓚솿벶짏컞닮틬,벴캪ꆰ만뚨돉놾Cꆱ;웤죽,떱뺭볃욫샫뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱,쫕틦늻뗈폚돉놾,죧맻쪵탐뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦킡폚웤돉놾,퓲믵뇒떱뻖뻍믡뾼싇럅웺헢튻믣싊훆뛈,뮻퇔횮,뺭볃뒦폚뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦(뗈폚돉놾)볈쫇뚤힡췢캧맺풸틢캪듋횧뢶뗄만뚨돉놾,튲쫇죕뫳쫇럱럅웺헢튻훆뛈뗄에뛏뇪ힼꆣ쿠랴,뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱쪵탐뚤힡훆뗄돉놾잡쫇죕뫳럅웺뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦ꆣ뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺듲웆쇋풭폐뗄ꆰ뻹뫢ꆱ:평폚쫜떽뛱틢뗄춶믺탔믵뇒릥믷,틔벰평듋틽랢뗄듸폐뒫좾탔뗄놾췢쳓뗈풭틲,쿠맘뗄뚤힡췢캧맺늻뗃늻뇡횵놾뇒늢뷴쯵틸룹,쪹맺쓚뺭볃퓢떽훘뒴ꆣ캣믺늻떫쿷죵쇋쿠맘헾뢮떱뻖믖뢴뚤힡훆뗄탅탄,뛸쟒튲붵뗍쇋뚤힡훆뛔폚쫐뎡뗄뿉탅뛈ꆣ룼캪훘튪뗄쫇,떱쫐뎡늻퓙죏캪믖뢴뚤힡훆뿉탅뗄쟩뿶쿂,뿧뺳놾쇷뚯뻍뇘좻믡ꆰ랴뎣ꆱꆪꆪꆪ캣믺웚볤벰캣믺맽뫳뗄퓧웚,놾뇒뇡횵뗄쫐뎡풤웚붫췆뚯놾듳맦쒣쇷돶,떼훂맺쓚샻싊짏짽뫍뺭볃돖탸뗍쏔;떱헢훖풤웚쓦횮뫳,놾뇒짽횵뗄풤웚폖믡췆뚯놾듳맦쒣쇷죫,랴맽살쪹맺쓚뺭볃뒦폚뻞듳뗄춨헍톹솦횮훐ꆣꋙퟜ횮,뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺횮뫳,쿠맘맺볒쪵탐뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦쿠뛔풽살풽킡,죧짏쯹쫶,헢쿠떱폚쯻쏇풸틢횧뢶뗄돉놾C풽살풽킡ꆣ쿠랴,죧맻럅웺뚤힡훆,늻떫폐샻폚퓶잿믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔,뛸쟒폐샻폚믵뇒떱뻖샻폃믣싊헾닟뮺뷢뫍죵뮯맺쓚뺭볃삧뺳;룼캪쿖쪵뗄틢틥뮹퓚폚,퓚뫋탄맺틔벰웤쯼랢듯췢캧맺뚼럮탐뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂,쿠뛔뢡뚯뗄믣싊훆뛈폐샻폚쿻돽쫐뎡뛔폚믣싊뇤뚯뗄떥뇟풤웚ꆢ폐샻폚복뗍탎탎즫즫뗄맺볊헹뛋믲쒦닁뿉쓜듸살뗄뺭볃쯰쪧ꆣퟜ횮,뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺횮뫳,쿠맘맺볒럅웺뚤힡훆뗄쫕틦퓚퓶듳,틲뛸럅웺뚤힡훆뗄뿉쓜탔(1-P)j튲퓚퓶듳ꆣꋙ쿖쪵쟩뿶쫇,평폚듳솿맺볊놾쇷죫뚫퇇맺볒,늻떫퓬돉쇋헢킩맺볒뗄춨헍톹솦뫍뺭볃엝쒭,튲뷸튻늽뛱뮯쇋떱잰뗄좫쟲뺭볃쪧뫢뻖쏦ꆣ퓚듋쟩뿶쿂,쪵탐뚤힡훆헐훂쇋풽살풽뛠뗄쎳틗쒦닁뫍룼듳뗄맺볊톹솦ꆣ77
좽짺타ꆢ췵욷쇡:싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨컥ꆢ쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂뗄훐맺헾닟폫뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷떱뷱쫀뷧헽쏦쇙ퟅ헽쿲뗄좫쟲탔ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꋙ(ꛋ퓶듳);춬쪱,쏀맺뗄뻞뛮쎳틗뫍닆헾돠ퟖ뇭쏷,쯼헽쏦쇙ퟅ쿠뛔룼듳뗄돥믷(벴,ꛂc>ꛂf쟒ꛂc>ꛂp)ꆣ퓚놾컄뗄럖컶뿲볜쓚,듋훖쟩탎듦퓚ퟅ듯돉좫쟲뻹뫢뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ쏀맺캪쇋ힷ쟳맺쓚뫪맛뺭볃쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖,쟣쿲폚컈뚨뗄샻싊헾닟뛸퓊탭쏀풪뛔훷튪믵뇒믣싊폐룼듳뗄늨뚯ꆣ헢퇹,쏀맺뗄헾닟욫뫃뻍뛔펦ퟅ튻쳵쿠뛔룼캪욽첹뗄랴펦쟺쿟Rc(죧춼7);폫횮쿠랴,만뚨믣싊훆맺볒퓚헾닟뻶닟훐퓲붫놾뇒뛔뫋탄맺믵뇒믣싊뗄컈뚨훃폚뫋탄뗘캻,틲듋,쯼쏇뗄랴펦쟺쿟쿠뛔룼캪뚸쟍(죧춼7ퟳ춼훐뗄Rp0),떫쫇,죴뚤힡췢캧맺럅웺뚤힡훆,퓲웤랴펦쟺쿟쫆뇘튲믡뇤뗃룼볓욽첹(죧춼7폒춼훐뗄Rp1)ꆣ춼7ꆡ뚤힡췢캧맺럅웺뚤힡뗄헾닟킧펦ꆡ떱퓢폶늻뛔돆뗄좫쟲탔IS돥믷쪱(ꛋ퓶듳),쯹폐맺볒뗄랴펦쟺쿟뚼붫짏틆쿠펦뗄뻠샫ꋚꆣ룹뻝랴펦쟺쿟뗄탔훊,컞싛뫋탄맺쫇럱닉좡뫏ퟷ첬뛈,쯼뚼쟣쿲폚횻죃샻싊ퟷ뷏킡럹뛈뗄짏뗷,뛸떼훂폐킧믣싊퓚뷏듳럹뛈짽횵뫳폖쿠뛔뷏듳럹뛈뗄뇡횵ꆣ퓚헢튻맽돌훐,뚤힡췢캧맺뗄랴펦쟺쿟붫늻뗃늻듓OE탽떽OF뗄캻훃(죧춼7),뛸럅웺뚤힡훆뗄췢캧맺뗄랴펦쟺쿟퓲뿉틔듓OꇤEꇤ탽떽OꇤFꇤ믲OꇤFꇥ,뛸컞탫탽떽뫋탄맺뗷헻샻싊뫳쯹뛔펦뗄Bꇤ뗣,횻튪뫋탄맺믵뇒뛔쯹폐췢캧맺믵뇒뗄폐킧믣싊뗈폚Bꇤ쯹뛔펦뗄믣싊쮮욽,쓉쪲뻹뫢벴뿉쪵쿖ꆣ짏쫶럖컶뛔폚뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷폫훐맺헾닟좡쿲폐ퟅ짮뿌뗄웴쪾틢틥:웤튻,뚤힡췢캧맺럅웺뚤힡믣싊훆폐샻폚퓶잿웤믵뇒헾닟뛀솢탔,풭틲퓚폚뫋탄맺횻ힷ쟳뫏틢뗄샻싊폫폐킧믣싊뗄헾닟ퟩ뫏,뛸늻쫇놾뇒뛔쒳룶뻟쳥맺볒믵뇒뗄믣싊쮮욽,헢퇹뻍쪹떥룶췢캧맺뗄헾닟ퟔ평뛈퓶듳,듓뛸룼폐샻폚맺쓚뺭볃쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖ꆣ듓듋뷇뛈뾴,쟸폲믣싊킭뗷늢늻폅폚뛀솢뢡뚯헾닟ꆣ떫쫇,믣싊킭뗷ퟷ캪쟸폲믵뇒뫏ퟷ뗄ퟮ룟탎쪽,폫쟸폲믵뇒뫍뺭볃뫏ퟷ쫇쿠뮥듙뷸뗄맘쾵,폐킧뗄믣싊킭뗷폐샻폚룄짆쟸폲쓚쎳틗뮷뺳ꆢ쳡룟풴뫍튪쯘엤훃킧싊,붵뗍짵훁뗖쿻쟸췢뺭볃돥믷뗄뢺킧펦ꆣ틲듋,퓚뚫퇇맺볒럅웺뚤힡훆횮뫳,뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷뗄믽벫ퟷ폃훷튪폐솽랽쏦:ꋙ룹뻝IMF뗄풤닢,퓚캴살튻뚨쪱웚쓚,좫쟲뺭볃죔붫퇓탸잿뺢퓶뎤쫆춷,뺭볃퓶뎤싊죔믡듯떽5%ퟳ폒ꆣ쿻럑욷뫍훷튪쓜풴볛룱ꆢ쿻럑헟뫍짌튵탅탄횸쫽ꆢ룷훖샻싊뗈뺭볃뇤솿퓚캴살뚼듦퓚늻춬돌뛈뗄쿲짏톹솦(쿪볻IMF,2006,ꆰWorldEconomicOutlookꆱ,September)ꆣ컞틉,떱뷱쫀뷧헽쏦쇙ퟅ쿠떱듳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣꋚ컞싛쫇뫋탄맺뮹쫇췢캧맺,랴펦쟺쿟뗄짏틆뚼듺뇭ퟅ볈뚨샻싊쮮욽짏뗄놾뇒짽횵,믲볈뚨믣싊쮮욽짏뗄샻싊짏짽,믲솽헟볦뛸폐횮ꆣ78
2007쓪뗚10웚(1)복뗍늻뛔돆뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷(ꛂp뇤킡);(2)퓶듳쿠뛔폚쟸췢헾닟뗄뛀솢탔(ꛄp쿠뛔폚ꛔ복킡)ꆣ잰헟쪹쟸폲쓚맺볒랴펦쟺쿟뗄짏틆럹뛈복킡,뫳헟쪹쟸폲쓚맺볒랴펦쟺쿟뇤뗃룼볓욽첹,솽헟뗄릲춬ퟷ폃쫇죵뮯쇋늻뛔돆돥믷뛔쟸쓚맺볒뺭볃퓶뎤뗄죅뚯ꆣ웤뛾,놾럖컶뿲볜뇭쏷,뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷펦잿뗷뷗뛎탔뫍쟸췢킭뗷탔ꆣ쯹캽뷗뛎탔쫇횸,퓚뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷뷸돌훐,잰웚늻뇘ힷ쟳뚫퇇믵뇒뗄췪좫춬늽뢡뚯,횻튪쟸폲폐킧믣싊뻟폐컈뚨탔,뻍폐샻폚쟸폲뺭볃튻쳥뮯뗄랢햹;훐웚뿉틔럖뇰틔죋쏱뇒뫍죕풪캪쟸폲뫋탄믵뇒붨솢솽룶ꆰ듎믵뇒쟸ꆱ(좽짺타,2005)ꆣ퓚잰웚폐킧믣싊컈뚨뗄믹뒡짏뷸튻늽럖뇰쪵쿖듎믵뇒쟸쓚믵뇒횮볤뗄룼룟돌뛈뗄믣싊킭뗷;뫳웚퓲듙돉솽룶ꆰ듎믵뇒쟸ꆱ뗄죚뫏,ퟮ훕쪵쿖헦헽뗄뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷(춬늽뛔췢뢡뚯,짵훁떥튻믵뇒)ꆣ쯹캽쟸췢킭뗷탔쫇횸,퓚뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷맽돌훐,튪볓잿폫쟸췢맺볒뗄뫏ퟷ폫킭뗷,폈웤쫇뺭볃맘쾵쏜쟐뗄뢡뚯췢캧맺,펦뺡솦쪵쿖쟸쓚믵뇒폫헢킩맺볒믵뇒횮볤폐킧믣싊뗄컈뚨(늻업돢뛔떥룶믵뇒뗄뢡뚯),틲듋,틔쿠펦뗄믵뇒삺ퟓퟷ캪쟸쓚믵뇒뢡뚯뗄닎뾼뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ헢퇹뗄뫏ퟷ폫킭뗷폐샻폚듙쪹뫋탄맺닉좡뫏ퟷ늩?닟싔,폐샻폚좫쟲뻹뫢뗄쪵쿖ꆣ웤죽,퓚죋쏱뇒맜샭뢡뚯뷸돌훐,돥쿺뺭볃돥믷뫍볓잿믣싊킭뗷폫뫏ퟷ쫇솽룶훁맘훘튪뗄컊쳢ꆣ돥쿺뺭볃돥믷뻍쫇튪죃죋쏱뇒훰늽퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏헦헽뢡뚯웰살,틔뇣럖첯맺쓚믵뇒헾닟뗄톹솦뫍뢺떣;믣싊킭뗷폫뫏ퟷ뻍쫇틔컈뚨죋쏱뇒폫쟸쓚믵뇒폐킧믣싊캪믹뒡,퓚맜샭뢡뚯뗄맽돌훐볓잿폫뚫퇇맺볒퓚탅쾢ꆢ헾닟뫍벼쫵뗈랽쏦뗄뫏ퟷ,춬쪱,뮹펦룃볓잿폫쟸췢쿠맘맺볒믵뇒떱뻖퓚뫪맛뺭볃헾닟랽쏦뗄릵춨ꆢ붻쇷폫킭뗷,틔뇣쪹죋쏱뇒뗄뢡뚯쓜릻퓚돥쿺뺭볃돥믷뫍컈뚨폐킧믣싊횮볤ퟷ돶쒳훖좨뫢ꆣ헢솽룶컊쳢뚼폫붨솢뿆톧뗄믵뇒삺ퟓ쏜늻뿉럖,헢퇹뗄믵뇒삺ퟓ뿉틔뻟폐ꆰ뚯첬탔ꆱ뫍뿉뇤탔,튲뻍쫇쮵,쯦ퟅ맺볊맺쓚뺭볃첬쫆뗄뇤뮯틔벰뺭볃돥믷탔훊뫍솿벶뗄닮틬,믵뇒삺ퟓ뗄릹돉뫍뷡릹펦폐쯹뇤뮯ꆣ웤쯄,퓚쏦쇙늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쪱,훐맺뗄믵뇒헾닟펦볡돖ꆰ샻싊쓚늿뮯ꆱ믹뒡짏뗄뛠퇹뮯닟싔ꆣ헢샯뗄ꆰ샻싊쓚늿뮯ꆱ쫇횸,샻싊뗄뇤뚯틔ꆰ샻싊틽떼풴폅뮯엤훃ꆱ뗄믹놾횰쓜캪풭퓲,죃샻싊헦헽돉캪폅뮯탨쟳뷡릹ꆢ룄짆퓶뎤랽쪽ꆢ쪵쿖쓚늿쒿뇪뗄폐솦릤뻟;뛸뛠퇹뮯닟싔퓲쫇횸,펦톡퓱뛠훖헾닟릤뻟뫍듫쪩살펦뛔쯹쏦쇙뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷ꆣ퓚틔탅폃믵뇒캪믹뒡뗄쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂,맺볊쇷뚯탔쳡릩믺훆퇏훘늻뛔돆ꆪꆪꆪ틗폚삩헅뛸쓑폚쫕쯵ꆪꆪꆪ폈웤쫇떱뫋탄맺퓢폶룼듳뗄ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쪱,벫틗돶쿖좫쟲탔쇷뚯탔맽쪣뗄뻖쏦,헢헽쫇떱잰좫쟲뺭볃퇏훘쪧뫢틔벰훐맺쏦쇙뻞듳쇷뚯탔맽쪣톹솦뗄믹뒡탔풭틲ꆣ퓚뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂,평폚쫜떽샻닮틔벰뫋탄맺(뫍웤쯼뢡뚯췢캧맺)욫뫃샻싊컈뚨뗄쮫훘풼쫸,맺쓚샻싊쮮욽늻뿉쓜퓚뛌웚쓚ퟶ돶듳럹뗷헻;뿶쟒,쇷뚯탔퇏훘맽쪣뗄룹풴늢늻퓚폚샻싊뗄ꆰ쪧뗷ꆱ,틲뛸,떥튻뗄샻싊헾닟쓑틔쿻돽쇷뚯탔톹솦ꆣ쿠랴,릫뾪쫐뎡뗄돥쿺닙ퟷꆢ램뚨ힼ놸뷰싊ꆢ뒰뿚횸떼틔벰붫튪뒴붨뗄ꆰ췢믣춶릫쮾ꆱꆢ룼뻟헫뛔탔뗄닆헾헾닟틔벰닆헾믵뇒헾닟뗄쟉쏮듮엤뗈듫쪩뫍쫖뛎,퓚쿻돽뫍죵뮯쇷뚯탔톹솦랽쏦뇘좻뷏샻싊헾닟룼캪폐킧,틲캪,헢킩ꆰ헾닟릤뻟ꆱ뻟폐헫뛔탔잿ꆢ뷰쇷뚯랽쿲쏷좷ꆢ맦쒣뿉뿘훆뗈폅뗣,뇣폚퇫탐뷨틔펦뛔듳맦쒣돥믷ꆣ폐본폚듋,놾컄죏캪,캴살뗄ꆰ췢믣춶릫쮾ꆱ펦룃뻟폐튻뚨뗄헾닟릤뻟몬틥,튲뻍쫇쮵,웤춶ퟩ뫏춷듧훐튪폐튻뚨뇈샽뗄쇷뚯탔뷏잿뗄췢맺닺,짵훁펦룃돖폐튻뚨럝뛮뗄맺쓚닺,늢쟒춶춷듧펦룃뻟폐쇩믮탔늢쓜릻폫퇫탐뗄믹놾헾닟놣돖튻훂ꆣ헢퇹뗄ꆰ춶릫쮾ꆱ늻뷶쓜릻펦뛔헽쿲돥믷튲쓜펦뛔뢺쿲돥믷,헦헽돉캪훐맺믵뇒헾닟뗄ꆰ뒴탂릤뻟ꆱꆣ쇹ꆢ뷡싛뫍헾닟몭틥(튻)맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뗄퓋탐컈뚨폫럱,쫗쿈좡뻶폚췢짺뗄뺭볃돥믷,뛸쟒,늻뷶좡뻶폚돥믷뗄솿79
좽짺타ꆢ췵욷쇡:싛늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟늩?폫믣싊컈뚨벶듳킡,룼훘튪뗄쫇좡뻶폚돥믷뗄뛔돆탔ꆣ벴횻폐떱뒦폚쿠뛔횧엤뗘캻뗄맺볒(뫋탄맺)퓢쫜쿠뛔룼듳뗄뺭볃돥믷쪱,믵뇒쳥쾵닅룼죝틗쪵쿖뻹뫢ꆣ쯤좻헢튻뷡싛퓚쒣탍훐쫇춨맽룷랽랴펦쟺쿟뗄킱싊맘쾵뛸뗃떽뗄,떫쿖쪵훐룼죝틗샭뷢ꆪꆪꆪ춨뎣,뻓폚듓쫴뗘캻뗄췢캧맺룼뻟폐폫뒦폚횧엤뗘캻뗄뫋탄맺뫏ퟷ뗄쟣쿲,떱뫋탄맺훷뚯닉좡헾닟듫쪩펦뛔늻닢뗄뺭볃돥믷쪱,췢캧맺튻냣튲믡ퟶ돶쿠펦뗄헾닟뗷헻,듓뛸쪹뻹뫢ힴ첬룼죝틗돶쿖ꆣ랴횮,퓲늻튻뚨돉솢ꆣ샽죧,퓚뚫퇇뷰죚캣믺웚볤,떱퓢쫜캣믺뗄맺볒벱탨맺볊짧믡듳솦풮훺쪱,쏀맺뗄훷튪헾닟듫쪩쫇붫웤솪냮믹뷰샻싊쿂뗷쇋0125룶냙럖뗣,뛸IMF퓲룸돶쇋뻟폐튻뚨풼쫸솦뗄뷴쯵뗄헾닟붨틩,쪹캣믺맺뺭볃뗄믖뢴맽돌룼볓뮺싽ꆣ(뛾)떱뫋탄맺폫뢡뚯췢캧맺닉좡뫏ퟷ뗄첬뛈쪱,쓉쪲뻹뫢룼죝틗쪵쿖ꆣ룃뷡싛뗄쿖쪵틢틥퓚폚:튻랽쏦,퓚믣싊훆뛈뛠퇹뮯ꆢ뺭볃쪵솦듦퓚뷏듳닮틬뗄쿖탐믵뇒쳥쾵쿂,훷튪맺볒볤뗄쏜쟐뫏ퟷ뿉틔춨맽샻닮폫믣싊뗄컈뚨살복짙늻뇘튪뗄놾쇷뚯,듓뛸폐샻폚욽틖맺볊뺭볃늨뚯,붵뗍뚤힡췢캧맺룉풤췢믣쫐뎡뗄톹솦,쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔;쇭튻랽쏦,ퟜ쳥뛸퇔,퓚쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂,쪵탐뚤힡믣싊훆뗄맺볒퓚쏦뛔늻뛔돆뗄뺭볃돥믷쪱뒦폚뇈뷏놻뚯뗄뺳뗘ꆣ헢뿉쓜풤쪾ퟅ캴살뗄맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵붫ퟜ쳥짏뎯ퟅ룷맺믣싊훆뛈룼볓쇩믮뗄랽쿲퇝뷸ꆣ(죽)맘폚ꆰ뚤힡췢캧맺럅웺뚤힡믣싊훆뗄쳵볾뫍쪱믺ꆱ뗄럖컶뇭쏷,쪵탐뚤힡믣싊훆뗄맘볼퓚폚헾뢮떱뻖뗄쓜솦뫍탅탄ꆪꆪꆪ횻폐떱웤풸틢캪듋믣싊훆뛈뢶돶뷏듳듺볛쪱,헢튻훆뛈닅쓜뗃틔캬돖ꆣ퓚쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂,튻떩럅웺룃훆뛈낲업뗄쫕틦듳폚풸틢횧뢶뗄돉놾,헢킩맺볒뻍믡쟷쿲룼쇩믮뗄훆뛈낲업ꆣ(쯄)놾컄뗄퇐뺿뮹뇭쏷,퓚쿖탐맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵쿂,평폚쳥쾵뷡릹룼볓뢴퓓(췢캧맺쯹톡퓱뗄믣싊낲업뇈틔췹죎뫎맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뚼튪뢴퓓,늻뷶냼삨쿠뛔쇩믮뗄훆뛈낲업,뮹냼삨쿠뛔만뚨뗄훆뛈낲업),틲듋,룼탨튪볓잿맺볊믵뇒뫏ퟷ틔듙쪹쳥쾵뗄컈뚨퓋탐ꆣ퓚헢퇹뗄쳥쾵쿂,뒿듢냔좨뗄ퟷ폃헽퓚쿂붵,뛸늻믹폚냔좨뗄맺볊뫏ퟷ룼볓훘튪ꆣ뮻퇔횮ꆰ,냔좨컈뚨싛ꆱ뗄뷢쫍솦뫍횸떼ퟷ폃뻟폐뫜듳뻖쿞탔짵훁듸폐컳떼탔ꆪꆪꆪ쯦ퟅ뢡뚯췢캧맺벯췅벰늿럖뚤힡췢캧맺뺭볃뫍헾훎쪵솦뗄퓶잿,냔좨뗄횧엤쓜솦쫇폐쿞뗄ꆪꆪꆪ룼뷴쏜뫍룼좫쏦뗄뫏ퟷ틑뺭돉캪쿖퓚쓋훁캴살맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵컈뚨뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ(컥)퓚뚫퇇맺볒쿠볌럅웺뚤힡믣싊훆횮뫳,뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷퓚쟸쓚맺볒펦뛔뺭볃돥믷랽쏦뗄믽벫ퟷ폃훷튪쳥쿖퓚횱뷓죵뮯돥믷뗄춬쪱퓶잿쇋펦뛔돥믷헾닟뗄뛀솢탔;쇭췢,놾럖컶뿲볜늢늻ힷ쟳뚫퇇믣싊뇤뚯뗄췪좫춬늽탔,떫폫쟸췢맺볒뗄뫏ퟷ폫킭뗷늻뿉뫶쫓ꆣ(쇹)캪쇋펦뛔늻뛔돆ퟜ탨쟳돥믷,캬돖훐맺뺭볃돖탸붡뾵퓶뎤,훐맺뗄믵뇒헾닟펦볡돖ꆰ샻싊쓚늿뮯ꆱ믹뒡짏뗄뛠퇹뮯닟싔ꆣ퓚믣싊헾닟랽쏦,펦훰늽쪵쿖룼캪쇩믮뗄폐맜샭뢡뚯믣싊훆ꆢ볓잿믵뇒쇬폲뗄맺볊뫏ퟷ;퓚뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷뷸돌훐,죋쏱뇒펦돐떣뻟폐뫋탄틢틥뗄킭뗷퓰죎ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗믆볃짺ꆢ좽짺타,2005ꆶ:탅쾢늻뛔돆폫럇떥튻믵뇒뫏ퟷ쟸헾닟킭뗷ꆷꆶ,쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚11웚ꆣ좽짺타,2005ꆶ:죋쏱뇒맜샭뢡뚯뫳뗄뚫퇇믣싊킭뗷ꆷꆶ,맺볊뷰죚퇐뺿ꆷ뗚11웚ꆣBallabriga,F.,Sebastian,,J.,1993,ꆰInterdependenceofECEconomies:AVARApproachꆱ,WorkingPaper9314,BancodeEspana,,,H.,1997,ꆰAnAnalysisoftheStabilityPactꆱ,,,P.,2002,ꆰAsymmetricInformationandMonetaryPolicyinCommonCurrencyAreasꆱ,CEPR,,,1995,InternationalCooperationintheMakingofNationalMacroeconomicPolicies:WhereDoWeStand?
2007쓪뗚10웚Canzoneri,,D.,1989,NoncooperativeMonetaryPoliciesinInterdependentEconomies,,,P.,1991,ꆰTheInternationalCoordinationofMonetaryPolicy:ASurveyꆱ,SurveyinMonetaryEconomics,,ꆪ,,W.,1993,IsEuropeanOptimumCurrencyArea?EvidencefromRegionalData,CambridgeUniversityPress,PP111ꆪ,C.,2000a,ꆰInternationalMonetaryPolicyCoordinationunderAsymmetricShocksꆱ,DocumentosdeTrabajo2LanGaiakDepartamentodeEconomꮎAa2UniversidadPꮎAoblicadeNavarra,,C.,2000b,ꆰSupplyPoliciesCoordinationinaMonetaryUnionꆱ,DocumentosdeTrabajo2LanGaiakDepartamentodeEconomꮎAa2UniversidadPꮎAoblicadeNavarra,,M.,Folders2Landau,,.,2003,ꆰAnEssayontheRevivedBrettonWoodsSystemꆱ,NBERWorkingPaperNo9971(September).Dooley,,.,2005,ꆰIsit1958or1968?ThreeNotesontheLongevityoftheRevivedBrettonWoodsSystemꆱ,PaperpreparedforBrookingspaneloneconomicactivity(WashingtonDC),,,,ꆰNewEmpiricalEvidenceentheCostsofEuropeanMonetaryUnionꆱ,CentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(London),DiscussionPaper1169,Hamada,K.,1976,ꆰAStrategicAnalysisofMonetaryInterdependenceꆱ,JournalofPoliticalEconomy84,PP877ꆪ,R.,Manasse,P.,Monacelli,,R.,1995,ꆰHowMuch(A)symmetryinEurope?EvidencefromIndustrialSectorsꆱ,EuropeanEconomicReview39,PP1017ꆪ,,Y.,1995,ꆰEconomicCooperationwithinEurope:LessionsfromtheMonetaryArrangementsinthe1990sꆱ,CentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(London),,,K.,2000,ꆰDoWeReallyNeedaNewInternationalMonetaryCompact?ꆱ,(August).Rogoff,K.,1985,ꆰCanInternationalPolicyCoordinationBeCounterproductive?ꆱ,,A.,1997,ꆰMonetaryIntegrationandEconomicConvergenceꆱ,CentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(London),(FinanceandStatisticsSchool,EastChinaNormalUniversity)WangPinling(DepartmentofMathematicsandStatistics,ShanghaiLixinUniversityofCommerce)Abstract:Thispaperdividesthecountriesinthecurrentinternationalmonetarysystem(CIMS)intothreeblocs,thatis,thecore,thefloatingperipheryandthepeggedperiphery,,thispaperstudiestheequilibriumofthemonetarypolicygameamongthethreeblocsundertheasymmetricshocksoftotaldemand,:whetherexchangerateorexchangerateregimeisstableornotrestslesswiththedegreeofexogenousshocks,,ꆯ:AsymmetricISShocks;MonetaryPolicyGame;ExchangeRateStability;CurrentInternationalMonetarySystemJELClassification:C710,C720,E600,F300,F420(퓰죎뇠벭:췵ꆡ돏)(킣뛔:쿾ꆡ언)81
