2009年第12期 ࣜ࠶ཡ่აۀੱཧ൲Ҧ贺庆文1,2(1.ᇏݓದն࿐അ࿐ჽ,Кࣘ 100872;2.ᇏКն࿐ࣜ࠶აܵ࿐ჽ,ჰ 030050)ᅋ ေ:2008୍ਆ໊࿐ᆀFayބXie൮ՑิԛਔۀੱӁބۀੱཧ൲Ҧ,ູఒြႏཧᄹเਔྍ֥൧ӆ༥ٳ۽ऎ,္ॖؓఒြ֥০Ӂളࠒ֥ࠞ႕ཙbᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่Мࣟ༯,ۀੱཧ൲Ҧᆞ൞ఒြႏཧ௧్ླေ֥ႏཧ۽ऎᆭ၂bᄝؓۀੱӁބۀੱཧ൲ࣉྛࢺക֥ࠎԤഈ,ٳ༅ਔࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ࡗఒြೂޅ๙ݖۀੱӁބۀੱཧ൲Ҧࠆ֤Ⴊ൝,Ֆط؈ݖࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹bቋު,ษંਔۀੱӁބۀੱཧ൲֥अཋაభࣟbܱՍ: 经济萧条;概率产品;概率销售;市场细分ᇏٳোݼ:F270 ໓ངѓ്:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1004-972X(2009)12-0043-04 ఒြೂޅႋؓࣜ࠶ཡ่၂ᆰ൳֞ႏཧਵთ࿐ᆀ֥ܱۂ൭ࠏ,ਸ਼၂۱൞ᆰϰ൭ࠏ,ൈھਬ൲അߎิ܂၂۱ڸࡆᇿb২ೂ,Cundiffᄝ1975୍ࣼᄻซ֞ࣜ࠶ཡ่Мࣟ༯ႏཧ֥/֥ۀੱ൭ࠏ0,ᆃ۱ۀੱ൭ࠏॖି൞ᆰϰ,္ॖି൞يۂbቔႨ໙ี[1],ಪູ՜ཧ֥ቔႨэ֥٤ӈᇗေ;Lovelockބପહ,ิ܂၂۱PGႵહቔႨ?ఒြൌീPSҦႻႵଧུQuelchᄝ1983୍ษંਔೂޅᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹ؓڛༀࣉྛ՜Ⴊ൝?ਆ໊࿐ᆀᄎႨHotellingଆᆣૼਔఒြิ܂၂۱ڸཧ[2],ૌᆷԛਔڛༀ՜ཧ֥ބႋᇿၩ֥໙ี֩b૫ؓࡆ֥PG֥PSҦ,߶б҂ิ܂PG֥Ԯཧ൲Ҧ(ࡥӫູՎՑࣜ࠶ཡ่,QuelchބJocz(2009)ᆷԛఒြေܱᇿཨٮᆀTS)ࠆ֤۷؟֥০bಯၛ൭ࠏູ২,يۂ൭ࠏ֥ࡎູ۬ྛູ֥҂,Ⴕᆌؓྟֹэ߄ఒြႏཧᅞ[3],طSmith1000ჭ,ᆰϰ൭ࠏ֥ࡎ္۬൞1000ჭ,ۀੱ൭ࠏ֥ᅼ२ࡎ۬(2009)ᄵಪູఒြ֥Էྍ൞ႋؓࣜ࠶ཡ่֥ܱb[4]ఒြ۷ູ800ჭbі1ၛ൭ࠏཧ൲ູ২ඪૼਔਬ൲ఒြTSҦބܱྏೂޅϜᆃུંઋൌ֞ऎุ֥ܵބႏཧൌ֒ᇏ,؈PSҦ֥҂bݖࣜ࠶ཡ่bູՎ,Ч໓ࣼࡩ၂ᇕྍ֥ႏཧ۽ऎ,ॖູఒြิ܂Ϻᇹbі1 TSҦބPSҦ༯ิ܂֥Ӂቆކބࡎ۬ؓб2008୍ਆ໊࿐ᆀFayބXieᄝݓ࠽ᇷ֥ႏཧ࿐ඌ௹़ཧ൲Ҧ෮ิ܂֥ӁMarketingScienceഈؿі֥࿐ඌં໓൮ՑิԛਔۀੱӁTSҦᆰϰ൭ࠏيۂ൭ࠏPSҦᆰϰ൭ࠏيۂ൭ࠏᆰϰࠇيۂ൭ࠏ(probabilisticgoods)ބۀੱཧ൲(probabilisticselling)֥ۀ,ѩᄎႨHotellingଆؓఃቔႨ֥ࠏᇅࣉྛਔᆣૼbఃࠎЧනࡎ۬(ჭ)10001000800མ൞০ႨཨٮᆀؓӁหᆘொݺ఼؇֥҂,ؓ൧ӆҵၳ߄קࡎ(pՖі1ॖၛुԛ,PSҦิ܂֥Ӂ؟ਔ၂۱ᅼ२ږ؇ricediscrimination)bЧ໓ᄝࢺകھႏཧ۽ऎ֥ൈ,ӂඍఃᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ࡗೂޅఒြбԮႏཧ۷ऎႵႪ൝ູ20%֥PGbཨٮᆀॖ࿊Ӂᄹࡆਔb,ՖطϺᇹఒြ؈ݖࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹bFayބXie(2008)ิԛ֥PGބPS,҂ࣇ൞၂۱ྍ֥ཧ၂aۀੱཧ൲ࠣۀੱӁࢺക൲Ҧ,طߎ൞၂ᇕ൧ӆ༥ٳ֥۽ऎbૌᄎႨਔཨٮᆀ及思想ؓӁหᆘ֥ொݺ఼֥؇()টؓ(一)概率销售基本概念F൧ӆࣉྛ༥ٳ,ѩؓ༥ٳ൧ӆ๙ݖPGൌགྷҵљ߄קࡎ(ࠇᆀayބXie(2008)ิԛۀੱӁ(ࡥӫPG)ѩ҂൞၂۱ऎุ֥Ӂ,ط൞Ⴎࠆ֤၂ቆૼಒ֥Ӂᇏ֥ޅ၂۱Ӂ֥ࡎ۬ఆ൪)bࠧཧ൲അॖၛؓொݺ఼֥ཨٮᆀ෬౼۷֥ۚࡎۀੱथק֥Ѱᒮ࿊ᄴbۀੱཧ൲(ࡥӫູPS)൞ᆷ၂ᇕཧ൲۬,طࠆ֤ࢠ֥ۚш࠽০;ؓொݺࢠ֥ཨٮᆀ൬౼ࢠ֮Ҧ֥ࡎ۬,طࠆ֤ࢠ֥֮ш࠽০,ቋᇔൌགྷ൧ӆঔᅦb[5]ᄝࣜ,ࠧཧ൲ᆀ০ႨఃགྷႵ֥ӁࠇڛༀটԷᄯۀੱӁ,ѩϜۀੱӁቔູؓమᄝܓઙᆀ֥၂ᇕڸࡆܓઙ࿊ᄴb২࠶࿐ંᇏ,ࡎ۬ఆ൪֥ൌགྷభิ൞ఒြႚႵ၂קӱ؇֥ೂ؎ಃ৯,ؓႿ၂Ϯ֥ఒြ൞٤ӈ֥bೂޅၛቋཬӮЧൌ,၂۱൭ࠏਬ൲അิ܂ଖஇۿିཌྷ֥൭ࠏ,၂۱൞يགྷࡎ۬ఆ൪,ቋն߄ఒြ০?PSҦࣼ൞၂۱ቋࡥֆ֥ٚ൬۠ರ௹:2009-09-30ቔᆀࡥࢺ:贺庆文(1976)),男,山西曲沃人,中国人民大学商学院营销管理专业博士研究生,中北大学经济与管理学院讲师,研究方向为市场营销理论b43
贺庆文: 经济萧条与概率销售策略ൔb২ೂ,ؓႿ൭ࠏ֥يۂބᆰϰหᆘऎႵ఼ਛொݺ֥ཨٮఃᇏ,p*1ބp*2ٳљ൞ཧ൲അ1ބཧ൲അ2֥नޙࡎᆀ,߶ᆰࢤٮ1000ჭܓઙ၂۱ಒקொݺหᆘ(ᆰϰࠇᆀي۬,P1ބP2ٳљູਆᆀ֥০bۂ)֥൭ࠏ,ط҂߶ٮ800ჭܓઙऎႵ҂ಒקྟหᆘڄགᆃ൞Hotellingଆቋࡥֆ֥ࢲંbଆᇏཨٮᆀ໊֥֥PG൭ࠏbؓႿหᆘொݺ҂఼֥ཨٮᆀ,يۂaᆰϰ൭ࠏᇂҵၳ,ॖၛࢳӮູӁ֥ҵၳ,ࠇᆀཨٮᆀ१֥ҵၳ෮໌,჻ၩܓઙ800ჭ֥PG൭ࠏbପહ,ཨٮᆀᄝᆦڱਔ֩,Ֆط֤ھଆ֥ႋႨູܼࠞٗbႮႿږႵཋ,ᆃ800ჭၛު,Ⴎਬ൲അၛ၂ק֥ۀੱᆷק۳ཨٮᆀيۂߎ൞ીႵؓః֝ݖӱቓऎุӂඍbPSؓPGބԮӁ֥ٳᆰϰ൭ࠏbᆃࣼൌགྷਔؓਆোหᆘொݺ҂֥ཨٮᆀ֥ҵ༅္൞ၛھଆູࠎԤࣉྛ֥,༯૫ࣉྛࡥֆ֥ࢺകbၳ߄קࡎ,۴ऌࠎЧࣜ࠶࿐ჰ,ҵၳ߄קࡎ(ࡎ۬ఆ൪)֥21PSࠎЧଆ֥ࡌഡაࢲંቔႨ൞ಞཨٮᆀഺჅሇ၍֞ਔఒြ,Ֆطൌགྷਔఒြ০֥(1)ཧ൲അྛູbഡଖཧ൲അิ܂ਆᇕӁၛjটіൕิۚb(j=1,2),ѩऎႵཌྷ֥ӮЧູc1=c2=cbഡཧ൲֥ࡎ۬ਸ਼ຓնႿш࠽ӮЧ,ѩ0[c[1bᄝࠎЧଆᇏ,ࡌഡཧ൲അਔ,PSॖၛϺᇹఒြႋؓ൧ӆ҂ಒקྟb֒ఒြൌീPSҦൈ,ॖၛࡨഒఒြྐ༏ਜ൝,ѩࡨླ҂ಒקྟؓࢳླ౦ঃѩॖၛડቀಆ֥҆ླbཧ൲അऎႵਆ۱ཧ൲০֥ڵ૫႕ཙ;ॖၛࢳथӁିބླᆭࡗ֥҂,ՖطҦ:၂൞Ԯཧ൲Ҧ(traditionalselling),ࡥӫູTS;ؽ൞ิིۚੱb[5]֒ఒြؓ൧ӆொݺ఼؇҂ਔࢳ֥ൈީ,ࣼؓӁۀੱཧ൲Ҧ(probabilisticselling),ࡥӫູPSbᄝTSҦ༯,קࡎջটਔࠈbӎཧӁႋ֒קۚࡎ۬,ᇌཧӁႋ֒Ӂj֥ࡎູ۬PPSj;ᄝPSҦ༯,Ӂj֥ࡎູ۬PPSj;ۀੱק֮ࡎ۬bఒြಌك൧ӆྐ༏֥౦ঃ༯,ޓϜೂޅקӁ(probabilisticgood)ࡥӫູSPG֥ࡎູ۬PP0bഡWູPGࡎҌቋݺbପહ,֒ࡆೆ၂۱PGൈ,ॖၛϜPGࡎ۬ࢆ֮֞൞Ӂ1֥ۀੱ,ପહW֥ࡗູ[0,1]bொݺ҂఼֥ཨٮᆀ჻ၩᆦڱ֥ඣ,طჰӁЌӻࢠۚࡎ۬(2)ཨٮᆀྛູbഡvjiູӁjؓႿཨٮᆀi֥ࡎᆴbࠎ҂эbંཨٮᆀொݺ఼,ॖၛູఒြջটႋႵ֥০ЧଆࡌഡਆᇕӁڛՖHotellingଆ,ࠧཨٮᆀ֥མb๙ݖ൧ӆ༥ٳބࡎ۬ఆ൪,ఒြؓ൧ӆླൌགྷܵӁࡎᆴѓሙ߄ູ1,ཌྷႋ֥ӮЧ༢ඔູt,(0<t[1),ཨٮ,ՖطࢳथӁିބླᆭࡗ֥҂bᆀᄝHotlellingଆᇏ໊֥ᇂᄝxiԩbཨٮᆀ֥ࡎᆴٚӱೂቋު༯:,ھཧ൲ҦႵ০ႿӁཌঔᅚbಯၛ൭ࠏູ২,TSҦӁູਆᇕ,طۀੱཧ൲Ҧߎิ܂ਔ၂۱PG,ᆃဢv1i=1-txiఃᇏxiB[0,1]ࣼӉਔӁཌbఒြીႵཨݻޅሧჷ,ࣼॖၛԷᄯԛྸv2i=1-t(1-xi)؟ྍӁ,ᆃ္൞ѩഡૄ۱ཨٮᆀᆺܓઙ၂۱Ӂࠧॖડቀఃಆ҆ླPS֥പఅᆭԩb(二)PS策略的模型与证明(ֆ໊ླ)bૄ۱ཨٮᆀᄝཧ൲അิ܂֥Ӂࡗࣉྛ࿊ᄴ,ቋն߄ఃིႨࡎᆴb২ೂ,ᄝPSҦ༯,ཨٮᆀ֥࿊ᄴ11ܱႿHotellingଆPSҦ൞๙ݖHotellingଆᆣૼ֥,طHotellingଆ൞Ⴕ4۱:၂൞ܓઙӁ1,ؽ൞ܓઙӁ2,൞ܓઙPG,ඹ൞ႮHહ္҂ઙbطཨٮᆀܓઙPGི֥Ⴈࡎᆴ൞PGࡎ۬აཨotelling(1929)ؿі֥၂ં໓5ࣩᆚ֥໗ק6ᇏࣉྛབྷ༥૭ඍ֥,ႮႿఃުܼ֥ٗႋႨ,ھࣩᆚଆᆰࢤၛఃቔᆀ֥ٮᆀ௹ຬࡎᆴᆭࡗ֥ҵح,PGؓཨٮᆀི֥Ⴈࡎᆴ౼थႿሳଁbཨٮᆀಪູӁ1ބӁ2֥ࡎᆴၛࠣఃყ௹֥PGູӁ[6]ࡥֆটඪ,Hotellingଆ൞ࡌഡӁᄝᇉྟିഈᇉ,ࣇࣇᄝॢࡗ໊ᇂഈթᄝҵၳ֥౦ঃ༯1֥ۀੱbࡌഡཨٮᆀ൞ྟ֥,ᄵPGؓཨٮᆀི֥Ⴈࡎ,ཨٮᆀᄝӉ؇ູ1֥ཌྟӬ൧໊֥ᇂ҂طླေᆦڱ҂֥ᄎൻӮЧbᆴູWv1i+(1-W)v2ibཨٮᆀܱྏ֥൞ࡎ۬ބᄎൻӮЧᆭބ,ط҂ֆ൞ࡎ۬bཧ൲(3)ቋႪҦbႨDTSj(PTS1,PTS2)іൕᄝTSҦ༯ؓӁj֥ླ,DPSj(PPS1,PPS2,PPS0,W)ބDPSo(PPSഅ1,PPS2,PPS0,W)ٳљսіᄝ1ބཧ൲അ2ٳљᄝֆ໊ए֥ਆ؊,ࠧః໊ᇂູx=0ބx=1,ૄ۱ֆ໊Ӂ֥ӮЧູc,ཨٮᆀܓઙഅ֥੪ྛӮЧPSҦ༯ؓӁjބPG֥ླbପહ,ཧ൲അ֥০ٚӱაഅ֥एӮб২,ֆ໊ए֥ӮЧູtbᆃဢ,ᇾᄝູ:x2໊ᇂ֥ཨٮᆀೂݔᄝཧ൲അ1Ґܓ,ࣼေٮtx֥ӮЧ,ೂ0TS=E(PTSj-c)DTSjj=1ݔᄝཧ൲അ2Ґܓ,ࣼေٮt(1-x)֥ӮЧbೂݔཨٮᆀऎ2Ⴕֆ໊ླ֥߅,ପહཨٮᆀՖཨٮᇏࠆི֤֥Ⴈࠇᆀ൞ཨ0PS=ES(PPPSj-c)DPSj+(PPS0-c)D0j=1ٮᆀഺჅູ(4)ཧ൲അ০ቋն߄౦ঃ༯,TSބPSҦ֥ؓбೂ༯sbਆ۱ཧ൲അᆭࡗ֥ࡎࣩ۬ᆚေղ֞ବनޙ,ࣼсྶൈ࿊ᄴሱ֥࠭ཧ൲ࡎ۬bط࿊ᄴሱ֥࠭ࡎ۬ࣼ෮ൕ:сྶॉ੮ཨٮᆀི֥ႨބӮЧ,ၛࠣሱ֥࠭ӮЧაཧ൲حbೂݔPSҦ༯০ۚႿTSҦ֥߅,ᄵсྶႵ:ᆃུܒӮਔሱ࠭࿊ᄴ֥ཋᇅ่ࡱbቋᇔ,ղ֞ਔनޙ֥ࡎ۬ᄝ0<W<1,-c<c่֥ࡱ༯,v0=0PS-0TS>0,ఃᇏބ০ٳљູ-:tc=1-bv0൞PSҦ༯֥০აTSҦ༯০ᆭҵb2p*1=p*2=c+tPSҦ֥০Ⴊ൝টჷᄝႿ:Pt1=P2=2ೂݔ=-c<c,ᄵvpj>0,vD=0;ೂݔ=c<c<c,ᄵvpj\44
2009年第12期 0,vD>0,๋֥ඣ,ഖԃஇֺᏫୄࡎ۬ӑݖ2ຣૅჭބ5ຣૅჭ֥ఃᇏ,vpj=PPSj-PTSj,vD=(DPS1+DPS2+DPS0)-(DTS1+Ӂཧ൲षᄹӉb0[7]ႮՎটु,ࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ࡗ,Ⴕॖି၂DT=S҆ٳཨٮᆀ߶ิۚொݺ఼؇,ࠧxi໊֥ᇂ߶۷ࡆౠཟႿPS2),c=1+tbࠇTSҦ༯֥Ӂ1ࠇӁ2,ط҂൞PGӁbGູӁ1֥ۀੱ֥႕ཙ:(二)经济萧条时期企业RPS和RTS策略利润效应比较ೂݔW1[,ᄵႵ0PS2W\0;ೂݔW\1,ᄵႵ0PS2W[0b۴ऌభ૫֥PSଆ,ࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹,ಯࡌഡଖཧ൲അิӁҵၳӱ؇֥႕ཙ:܂ਆᇕӁၛjটіൕ(j=1,2),ӮЧູc1=c2=c3,ѩ0[vpj0PS-00c[1bႨRTSսіࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ཧ൲അҐ౼Ԯཧ൲Ҧ,<0;t<0;ೂݔt<t,ᄵt\0;ః౦ঃ༯0,ttRPSսіࣜ࠶ཡ่௹Ґ౼PSҦ,ᄵᄝRTSҦ༯,ӁjW<0bఃᇏ-,t֥౼ᆴࡗູ[1-c֥ࡎູ۬PRTSj,ླູDRTS,2(1-c)5W]bj;ᄝPSҦ༯,Ӂj֥ࡎູ۬-1Ⴎഈ૫֥ؓбॖၛुԛট,൮༵,ೂݔш࠽ӮЧቀܔ֮PRPSj,ఃླູDRPSj,PG֥ࡎູ۬PRPS0,ఃླູDRPS0bWູ֥߅RPG(іൕࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹֥PGӁ)൞Ӂ1֥ۀੱ,ପહW(২ೂ-c<c),ᄹࡆ၂۱PGཧ൲അ০ิۚbఃՑ,ھ০֥ิۚটሱႿᄝӮЧቀܔ֥֮౦ঃ༯఼߄֥ࡎ۬ҵ֥ࡗູ[0,1]bᄝࣜ࠶٤ཡ่௹,Ⴕv0=0PS-0TS>0,ପၳહ,ေ֤ࣜ࠶ཡ่௹RPSҦбRTSҦऎႵ۷֥ۚ০,൞ೂݔӮЧᇏ֥֩ۚ߅,ࣼটሱႿࡎ۬ҵၳބ൧ӆঔᅦਆ۱ٚ૫bֻႪ൝,ࣼсྶЌᆣv0R=0RPS-0RTS>0Ӯ৫b,ෙಖPSҦ֥০Ⴊ൝҂сေؓPGӁᄝӁ1ބӁ2ഈٳ֥֩ۀੱ,൞ᆺႵᄝ֥֩ࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹,ᄝRTSҦ༯,ఒြ֥קࡎေહсྶ༯ࢆޓ؟,ژކն؟ඔཨٮᆀொݺ఼؇༯ࢆ֥൝,ေહࡎ۬ۀੱ౦ঃ༯(W1=ൈ),০Ҍିղ֞ቋնbֻඹ,PSҦ2҂э,ཧ൲༯ࢆޓ؟bᆃ൞۱ठᄴ,ၹູॖି֝ᇁཧ֥০Ⴊ൝ᄝቆӮPGӁ֥ҵၳ߄ԩႿᇏ֩ඣൈ,൞ቋ൲০ᇗ༯߁bᄝRPSҦ౦ঃ༯,ఒြ֥קࡎಏॖၛ࡙֥ۚbܤொݺ఼؇҂֥ཨٮᆀbPGӁࡎ۬ᆞݺژކਔ؟ඔཨؓႿᆃུࢲݔ֥ࢳ൞,ቆӮPGӁ֥ҵၳ߄ቋݺ൞ٮᆀொݺ఼؇༯ࢆ֥ླ,ՖطॖၛϜᆃ҆ٳཨٮᆀЌbᇏ఼֩؇,ൈቆӮPGӁ֥۲۱Ӂٳ֥ۀੱቋݺ൞༯૫ٳ༅ਆᇕ౦ঃ:ཌྷ֥֩,طш࠽ӮЧࢠູ֮ݺbᆃུ൞ᄝࠎЧଆ༯֝11ఒြRPSބRTSҦࡎ۬҂э֥౦ঃ֥ࢲંbൌ࠽ഈ,๙ݖଆ֥ঔᅚ,ၘࣜᆣૼPS֥০Ⴊ൝ࢲކPSଆބཨٮᆀྛູ֥э߄,ႵDRTSjބDRPSj༯ࢆᄝӁିཋᇅaླ҂ಒק౦ঃ༯൞ቋ֥ۚbЧ໓ཋႿږ,ޓ؟,xi໊ᇂᄀंᇏ,ᄵཨٮᆀᄀႵॖିܓઙPG,DRPS0߶҂ᄜቓԛऎุӂඍbഈശࢠնbၹՎ,ೂݔࡌഡPRTSj=PRPSj=Pj,ᄵDRTSj=DRPSj=ᆃᇕྍ֥ႏཧ۽ऎᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่Мࣟ༯ି҂ିϺᇹఒDj,Ֆط۴ऌ০ٚӱႵ(1)ൔ:ြक़ڛ?ճσ္൞ड़ק֥b2ؽaࣜ࠶ཡ่Мࣟ༯,ఒြᄎႨPSҦ֥Ⴊ൝ٳ༅0RTS=E(Pj-c)Djj=1(1)2(一)经济萧条背景下,消费者偏好的变化0RPS=E(Pj-c)Dj+(PRPS0-c)DRPS0൮༵j=1,ࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹,ཨٮᆀྛູ߶ؿളྸ؟э߄,ᆃᇕэ߄۴Чഈ൞๙ݖཨٮᆀொݺ֥э߄طّ႘֞ླэ߄ഈॖᆩ,(PRPS0-c)DRPS0>0Ӯ৫,ᄵႵv0R=0RPS-0RTS>0,ࠎЧࣜ࠶࿐ંЧദࣼ൞๙ݖཨٮᆀொݺඪૼ܂ܿੰ֥bӮ৫,ࠧPSҦᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹ཌྷбTSҦऎႵ০Ⴊࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ࡗ,ླ༯ࢆ൞ቋູૼཁ֥གྷའbऎุটඪ൝bࡌೂϜ၂҆ٳཨٮᆀ߶᧓ဲྟཨٮ౦ঃ္ॉ੮ࣉೆଆ,ᇏ,ପહ(1)ൔᇏ߶ّႋᄝDᇏ,Dбჰ༵ყ࠹֥༯ࢆေjjQuelchބJocz(2009)Ϝࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ࡗཨٮᆀٳູඹো,Їওቋಸၞ൳կބҍༀٚ૫յࠌቋնཬ၂ུbᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯ؓRTSބRPSҦ֥႕ཙཌྷ,ၹՎ(slam-on-the-brakes)֥ཨٮᆀa७Ⴕରྏv0R҂߶э߄b(pained-but-patient)֥ཨٮᆀaൽڛڶღνၤ21ఒြRTSҦࢆࡎ,طRPSҦࡎ۬҂э֥౦ঃ(comfortablywell-off)֥ཨٮᆀބݖ၂฿ෘ၂฿۴ऌԮ֥ླקੰ,ೂݔླ༯ࢆ,ᄵनޙࡎ۬߶ࢆ(live-for-today)֥ཨٮᆀb[3]భਆᆀ֥ொݺ߶ࢆ֮,ࡨഒਔཨٮbطުਆᆀ֥ொݺીႵؿളखਛ֥э߄,ཨٮಯಖ࣍ර֮bၹՎ,RTSҦ༯,ఒြॉ੮ቋ؟֥൞ࢆ֮ࡎ۬bᆃൈႵPRTSႿࣜ࠶ཡ่భbପહܓઙӁ֥ཨٮᆀொݺીႵؿളэ߄j<PRPSj,ೂݔPRTSjࢆ֮֞აPRPS0ཌྷ֥֩߅,ࠧႵPRTSj=,ಯಖູଆᇏ෮ਙི֥Ⴈݦඔb҂ܓઙޅӁ֥ཨٮᆀPRPS0=0bᆃൈ,ഡDRTSjЌӻ҂э,طDRPSj߶༯ࢆޓ؟,ഡ༯ࢆඔਈູDcjbႮႿPRTSj=PRPSದඔ߶ᄹ؟j=Pj,෮ၛ,RPSҦ༯ཧ൲ሹ,ᆃൈ,ཨٮᆀؓӁ1ބӁ2֥ொݺ߶ࢆ֮,ุགྷᄝଆᇏࣼ൞໊ᇂཟᇏࡗׄ၍bਈႋ֒აRTSҦ༯֥ཧ൲ਈཌྷ֩bՖط,۴ऌჰଆ,ႵఃՑٚӱ(2):,ཨٮᆀொݺ఼؇֥э߄Ԣਔഈ૫֥౦ঃ,Ⴕུۚ൬ೆದಕ൞ڎ۷ࡆ֥ഖԃཨٮਔ?ُѱ֥ࢨҪંิ֞20RTS=E(P-c)Djj=1֥᧓ဲྟཨٮ(conspicuousconsumption)ᄝཡ่௹ࡗ߶Ⴕࡆख(2)222֥౦ঃԛགྷb২ೂ/2005୍ࣜ࠶༯߁ൈ,ϴෛሢ൬ೆބܢࡎ0RPS=ES(PRPj-c)Dcj+(P-cc)(EDj-EDj)j=1j=1j=145
贺庆文: 经济萧条与概率销售策略ႮႿሹ֥ཧ൲ਈ൞၂ᇁ֥,PRTSj<PRPSj,ᄵсಖႵv0R(一)企业实施PS策略目前的条件限制=0RPS-0RTS>0Ӯ৫bೂݔॉ੮ཨٮᆀ֥᧓ဲྟཨٮ֥߅,PGᄝݓຓႋႨσ২ቋ؟֥൞ຩཧ൲b֒ཨٮᆀ჻ၩᄵDcܓઙPGൈ,๙ݖຩ࿊ᄴބᆦڱၛު,ࣼ߶ղӮࢌၞ,ཧ൲j߶ഈശ၂ུR,v0߶бჰ༵֥ᆴ۷ն၂ུ,ՖطุགྷਔRPSҦ֥धؓႪ൝bഅࣼ৫ࠧ۳ཨٮᆀӯགྷԛऎุӁ(২ೂᆰϰ൭ࠏࠇᆀيۂਸ਼ຓ,ᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ࡗRTSҦ༯,ఒြ՜ཧࢆࡎࠇᆀ൭ࠏ)bط,ᆃᇕཧ൲ᆺିႵ่ࡱ֥ߐࠊط҂ିࠊbڎᆰࢤࢆ֮ࡎ۬,ޓॖି߶Ⴕڵ૫֥႕ཙb֒՜ཧࢆࡎൈ,Ⴕᄵࣼ҂ିղ֞ၛொݺ఼؇ট༥ٳ൧ӆ,ؓ൧ӆࣉྛҵၳ߄ק࣮ؿགྷ՜ཧᅼ२ؓஇሧӁႵڵཟ႕ཙ,ѩ֝ᇁཨٮᆀؓࡎ֥ଢ֥bᄝຩඌؿղ֥ࣂ฿,ᆃ۱่ࡱ֥ൌགྷѩ҂இࡎ۬ۋᆩࢆ֮a఼߄ࡎ۬ᇑӴ֩b[8]طRPSҦࣼॖၛbх૧՜ཧࠇࢆࡎ෮֝ᇁ֥ڵ૫႕ཙbၹູRPSҦॖၛэ൞,ཧ൲അೂޅؓቆӮPG֥ऎุӁٳۀੱ,ၛࠣRPG֥ࡎ۬,ط҂ႨڿэቆӮӁ1ބӁ2֥ֆ۱ࡎᆃᇕۀੱೂޅಞཨٮᆀྐ൞ླေॉ੮֥໙ีbFayބXie۬,ᆃᇕؓбཁൕԛRPSҦ֥ࠞնႪ൝b(2008)ᆣૼ֥ۀੱٳቋႪҦ൞नۀੱ,ࠧيۂ൭ࠏބ(三)经济萧条时期实施RPS策略的实例分析ᆰϰ൭ࠏ֥ॖିྟ൞50%b໙ี൞,ఒြലӫ50%֥ۀູਔ۷ࡆౢԣֹඪૼRPSҦᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹֥Ⴊ൝,ੱ,ཨٮᆀᄸહ߶ཌྷྐ?གྷᄝაFayބXieਆ໊࿐ᆀކቔ֥གྷಯၛ൭ࠏູ২,ࡌഡ܋Ⴕ10ཨٮᆀ,ࣜ࠶ཡ่ᆭభؓᆰఒြᇏ,Ⴕ၂ࡅఒြᆞሙСषഡֻٚۀੱӁڛༀࠏܒbϰބيۂ൭ࠏหᆘொݺ఼֥ཨٮᆀٳљູ3,طؓਆᆀொႮ৫ֻ֥ٚᆳྛۀੱӁ֥Ԏ౼ӱ,ҌऎႵࢠ֥ۚॖݺ҂ૼཁ֥ཨٮᆀٳљູ2bᄝԮཧ൲Ҧ༯,ᆰϰ൭ྐ؇bࠏބيۂ൭ࠏ֥ࡎ۬ٳљູ1000ჭbᄝRPSҦ౦ঃ༯,(二)PS策略的前景和经济萧条期间的应用ᆰϰ൭ࠏaيۂ൭ࠏ֥ࡎ۬ಯಖ۲ູ1000ჭ,طPG൭ࠏ֥PSҦቔູ൧ӆ༥ٳ۽ऎބࠎЧႏཧ۽ऎ֥ิԛ൞၂ࡎູ۬800ჭbࡌקૄ҆൭ࠏӮЧ၂ູ600ჭbھ২ᇏ,۱Էྍ,ᆃᇕԷྍсࡼؓႏཧൌջট၂۱Ԋࠌൔ֥႕ཙ,ູࡥ߄໙ี,ࡌഡொݺ҂఼֥ཨٮᆀؓ൭ࠏིႨࡎᆴࡎູॖၛყ,ᄝຩਬ൲ྛြaྐڛༀྛြa੪ڛༀြaݴ800ჭbགྷൌഠ߶ᇏཨٮᆀொݺ఼؇၂ק൞ӯགྷ৵࿃ᆞٳॢڛༀaఖཧ൲aచӚڛༀ֩֩۲۱ྛြॖିԛགྷᆃᇕ֥҃,҂߶႕ཙ௴ђྟb֒ࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹,ࡌഡႵᆰϰބيPSҦbۂொݺ఼֥ཨٮᆀᇏ,۲Ⴕ1ཨٮᆀொݺ۷఼ਔ,طਸ਼ຓࣜ࠶ཡ่௹ࡗ,ఒြؓᆃᇕཧ൲۽ऎ֥௹ஏބॗຬ߶۷۲Ⴕ1ொݺЌӻ҂э,ֻ3ཨٮᆀொݺэ֥҂఼ਔ;ᆰࡆ఼֥ਛ,ၹູᄝႋؓࣜ࠶ཡ่֥۽ऎདᇏ,Ԣਔ՜ཧᆭຓϰބيۂொݺ҂఼֥ཨٮᆀэ֥ીႵொݺਔ(ࠧ҂ᄜܓઙ൭ఃൌીႵ؟۽ऎॖၛ࿊ᄴbᆃᇕྍႏཧ۽ऎၐ൞ఒࠏ)bြିܔ০Ⴈ,ѩࢹၛ౼֤০Ⴊ൝֥Ⴕི۽ऎbRTSҦ༯,ࡎ۬҂эൈ,۴ऌഈඍླэ߄,ᆺႵ4ཨٮᆀ߶ܓઙ,ఒြཧ൲൬ೆა০ೂі2෮ൕbೂݔࡎ۬ҕॉ໓ང:ࢆ֮֞800ჭ,ᄵ6ཨٮᆀ߶ܓઙ,ཧ൲൬ೆა০ೂі[1]CundiffEW1WhatistheRoleofMarketinginaRecession2෮ൕbૼཁॖၛुԛট,ఒြ҂ࢆࡎ০ࡨഒޓ؟,ࢆࡎ০[N]1JournalofMarketing,(1)1ࡨഒ֥۷؟b[2]LovelockCH,QuelchJA1ConsumerPromotionsinServiceRPSҦ༯,ٳљ2ொݺэ఼ބົӻ҂э֥ཨٮᆀܓMarketing[J]1BusinessHorizons11983,26(3):661ઙჰ൭ࠏ,2ொݺࢆ֥֮ཨٮᆀܓઙPG൭ࠏ,ପહఒြཧ[3]QuelchJA,JoczKE1HowtoMarketinaDownturn[J]1Har-൲൬ೆა০ೂі2෮ൕbૼཁुԛ,ఒြ০бRTSҦvardBusinessReview,2009,87(4):52-621༯؟ਔ400ჭ(RTSҦ҂ࢆࡎ)ࠇ800ჭ(RTSҦࢆࡎ),ุ[4]SmithJW1OutsidetheBox[J]1MarketingManagement,2009,གྷԛRPSҦؓఒြ০႕ཙ֥Ⴊ൝b18(2):321[5]FayS,XieJ1ProbabilisticGoods:ACreativeWayofSellingі2ఒြᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่Мࣟ༯ൌീProductsandServices[J]1MarketingScience12008,27(4):RTSҦაRPSҦؓ০֥ؓб674-6901ࣜ࠶Мࣟཧ൲ҦӁࠣࡎ۬ླਈཧ൲൬ೆӮЧ০[6]HotellingH1StabilityinCompetition[J]1TheEconomicJour-RTSҦᆰϰ൭ࠏ1000ჭ2(҂ࢆࡎ)يۂ൭ࠏ4000ჭ2400ჭ1600ჭnal11929,39(153):41-5711000ჭ2[7]KotlerP,KllerKL,AngSH,etal1MarketingManagementanࣜ࠶RTSҦᆰϰ൭ࠏ800ჭ3(ࢆࡎ4800ჭ3600ჭ1200ჭཡ่)يۂ൭ࠏ800ჭ3AsianPerspective[M]1FifthEditioned1Singapore:Prentice௹ᆰϰ൭ࠏ1000ჭ2RPSHall,20091ཧ൲يۂ൭ࠏ1000ჭ25600ჭ3600ჭ200ҦPG(ᆰϰࠇᆀي0ჭ[8]ࡾૼ,1ࡎ۬՜ཧ֥ᅼ२ਈ႕ཙஇሧӁ֥ൌۂ)൭ࠏ800ჭ2ᆣ࣮[J]1Кࣘն࿐࿐Б(ᅽ࿐ഠ߶॓࿐ϱ),2003,(5)1aఒြൌീPSҦअཋྟࠣႋႨభࣟٳ༅(༯ሇֻ88်)46
贾 峤,潘春玲,兰庆高: 小额信贷经理绩效评价模型研究߃ԛਔૼಒ֥ࡎѓሙ,࠻ࢳथਔ၂Ϯིࠛࡎᆺቔٳඔҕॉ໓ང:ஆ,҂ି߃ٳ֥֩ࠩ໙ี,္क़ڛਔህࡅمק֩ࠩ,ದ[1]JaponicaIntersect1MicrofinanceforProfit[M].ResearchRe-ູၹ႕ཙݖն֥҂ቀbview:200500021;February2005121ಆ૫ࡎਔඔਈᆷѓaᇉਈᆷѓބ൬ၭᆷѓ۱ٚ[2]ᅦႥౝ.ݓཬحྐվഅြ߄ؿᅚ࣮[D]1Ӯ:༆ଲҍ૫,ࡎࢲݔ۷ࡆग़ܴa܄ᆞbࡎඔਈᆷѓ,ॖૼཁֹࣜն࿐ණൖ࿐໊ં໓1бࢠԛྐվ֥ࣜြༀਈປӮնཬ;ࡎᇉਈᆷѓ,ॖّ႘[3]ѥࡔ.ଆඔ࿐ࠣఃࣜ࠶ٳ༅[M].Кࣘ:ᇏݓѓሙԛϱԛྐվ֥ࣜሱദြༀᄹӉࠣ࠹߃ປӮ౦ঃ;ࡎ൬ၭᆷഠ,19941ѓ,ॖх૧ֆ၂ॉҳြༀਈaޭ൪ٮႨބൌ࠽൬ၭ౦ঃ֥ಌ[4]৴ٯ.ҪՑٳ༅مႄં[M].Кࣘ:ᇏݓದն࿐ԛϱཊ,ุགྷਔཬحྐվࠏܒࣜႏ֥۴Чေbഠ,1990131๙ݖᆷѓٳোѩಒקݣၬཌྷّ֥ᆷѓ࠹ෘ๙ൔ,ࢳ[5]ࡻఓჷ.ඔ࿐ଆ[M].Кࣘ:ۚ֩࢝ტԛϱഠ,19931थਔԮAHPٚم҂ିކࡎؓࢲݔӁളཟ႕ཙᆷѓ[6]ݢ৫,ລሌ1ႋႨଆඔ࿐[M].Кࣘ:൮ࣜ࠶સၞ֥໙ีbᄝડၩ؇ٳݦඔᇏ,ࡼᆷѓ߃ٳູؓଢѓҪӁն࿐ԛϱഠ,19981148-1601ളڵཟࠇᆞཟ႕ཙ֥ᆷѓਆোbؓႿ҂ো֥ᆷѓٳљ[7]MustafaYurdakul,YusufTanselIc1AHPApproachintheCreditҐႨݣၬཌྷّ֥࠹ෘ๙ൔ,֤ԛކ֥ֆၹଆࡎٳEvaluationoftheManufacturingFirmsinTurkey[J]1ProductionඔbEconomics,Volume88,Issue3,April2004,(18):269-2891TheResearchonMicroCreditManagerPerformanceEvaluationModelJIAQ1iao,PANChun-lin2g,LANQ2ing-gao(11ShenyangNormalUniversity,Shenyang110034,China;21ShenyangAgriculturalUniversity;Shenyang110161,China)Abstract:-centivemechanismsbasedonscientificandrationalevaluation1Selectingquantity,qualityandchangesofbenefitsandestablishingtheperformanceevaluationsystem,determiningindicatorsweightsthroughAHP,calculatingthetargetscorebysatisfactionratingfunction,determiningthecompositescoresandtheirgradesthroughfuzzyevaluationmethod,andcometotheevaluationfindings,whichcanmakemicrocreditmanagerperformanceevaluationmethodmoreobjective,impartialandscientific1Keywords:microcreditmanager;performanceevaluation;comprehensiveevaluation;AHP(ᄳщࠠ:ݢक़Ⴇ)(ഈࢤֻ46်)EconomicRecessionsandProbabilisticSellingStrategyHEQing-wen1,2(11SchoolofBusiness,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872,China;21CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,NorthUniversityofChina,Taiyuan030051,China)Abstract:In2008,FayandXieforthefirsttimedefinedtheprobabilisticgoodsandprobabilisticsellingstrategy,whichcanbeusedasanewtoolforfirmstosegmentamarketandhaveapositiveeffecttoprofits1Probabilisticsellingstrategyisthebestmarketingtoolforfirmsinsuchaneconomicrecession1Basedonintroductionofprobabilisticgoodsandprobabilisticselling,theauthoranalyzestheadvantagesofprobabilisticsellingstrategywhichcanhelpfirmsgothroughtheeconomicrecession1Finally,theauthordiscussesthelimitedandfutureprospectforprobabilisticselling1Keywords:economicrecession;probabilisticgoods;probabilisticselling;marketsegment(ᄳщࠠ:ݢक़Ⴇ)88
