뗚31뻭 뗚1웚 뗧 ퟓ 뿆 벼 듳 톧 톧 놨 2002쓪2퓂 Journal of UEST of China 쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램벰GDP훷튪펰쿬틲쯘럖컶 쇵톧짺* 뫎 풾 뫘닽헾 (쯄뒨듳톧릤짌맜샭톧풺맜샭뿆톧폫릤돌쾵 돉뚼 610064) 햪튪쪹폃튻훖탂뗄ퟔퟩ횯쫽뻝췚뻲랽램쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램룹뻝GMDH벼쫵ퟔ뚯뗘듓쫽뻝훐쳡좡쒣뫽맦퓲탎돉룼ퟔ좻폯퇔쏨쫶뗄쒣뫽쒣탍닻쫶쇋쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램뗄쯣램풭샭벰붨쒣늽훨늢룸돶쇋쯄뒨뺭볃랢햹뗄붨쒣퇐뺿쪵샽럖컶돶펰쿬GDP퓶뎤뗄훷튪틲쯘햹쪾쇋쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램뗄춻돶쳘뗣컄훐뮹뛔쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램뫍GMDH랽램뷸탐쇋뇈뷏쮵쏷쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램뷸탐틲쯘럖컶뗄폅풽탔 맘 볼 듊 쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램; 쫽뻝췚뻲; 틲쯘럖컶; GMDH랽램; 맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵 훐춼럖샠뫅 F201 튻룶쒣뫽쾵춳평튻킩뻟쳥쮵쏷쫤죫쫤돶펳짤맘쾵뗄쒣뫽맦퓲쯹쏨쫶쒣뫽맦퓲쫇킴돉IFꦤTHEN탎쪽쫇튻킩볒횪쪶뗄벯뫏풤쿈붫볒횪쪶짨볆돉맦퓲뗄탎쪽컞싛쫇붨솢쒣뫽뿘훆쾵춳뮹쫇쒣뫽짱뺭췸싧랽램뚼튪춨맽폫볒뛔뮰풤쿈좷뚨튻뚨쫽솿뗄쒣뫽맦퓲[12]늢퓚듋믹뒡짏뷸탐쒣뫽췆샭뛸ퟔퟩ횯쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램폃뫚쿤랽램럖컶뒦샭쾵춳쫤죫쫤돶뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵틔GMDH벼쫵듓쾵춳틑횪쫤죫쫤돶쫽뻝ퟔ뚯뗘쳡좡쒣뫽맦퓲[3]헢쫇룃랽램춻돶뗄쳘뗣 1 쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램뗄풭샭 Zadeh랢쿖뛔헦쪵쫀뷧뗄쾵춳붨쒣쪱폃캢럖랽돌뗄붨쒣춾뺶폐늻ퟣ횮뒦맊쳡돶쇋쒣뫽벯뫏뗄쮼쿫쒣뫽쒣탍뿉틔폃뷏ퟔ좻뗄폯퇔살쏨쫶뢴퓓뗄쾵춳쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램(FRI )믹폚GMDH벼쫵ퟔ뚯뗘듓쫽뻝훐쳡좡쒣뫽맦퓲탎돉ퟔ좻폯퇔쏨쫶뗄쒣뫽쒣탍살쏨쫶뢴퓓쾵춳FRI뗄횴탐맽돌뻍쫇펦폃뫚쿤뗄랽램듓쫽뻝훐ퟔ뚯뗘붨솢쒣뫽췆샭쾵춳(횸뚨쫤죫쫤돶펳짤맘쾵뗄쒣뫽맦퓲뗄벯뫏)듓뛸탎돉쒣뫽쒣탍뗄맽돌횴탐n룶쫤죫뇤솿뗄쪵횵몯쫽뗄쒣뫽췆샭쾵춳캪[4] X쒣뫽뮯쒣뫽췆샭(맦퓲맩쓉)쓦쒣뫽뮯y 헢샯X =(x1,x2,L,xn)쫇뛠캬쫤죫뇤솿y쫇튻룶떥뇤솿뗄쫤돶 2 FRI뗄붨쒣늽훨 쒣뫽뮯 쒣뫽뮯쫇튻룶붫쫤죫뇤솿X =(x1,x2,L,xn)뫍쫤돶y쫽횵뗄맛달횵럖뇰폃솥쫴몯쫽xj=m(x)itAj뫍iyj=m(y)뮻캪쒣뫽쿲솿x1x2Lxmx1Lx1Lxm(1,1,,1,뫍y1y2,,,)Lym(,,,)tBjttt2,tntnt뗄맽돌헢샯mttt쫇쎿튻룶뇤솿뮻뗄폯퇔뇤솿뗄룶쫽놾컄쪹폃l샠탍뗄솥쫴몯쫽 맦퓲맩쓉 쒣뫽맦퓲킴돉IFTHEN뗄탎쪽춨뎣쫇튻킩볒횪쪶뗄벯뫏늢춨맽볒뗄쿈횪퓚맦퓲믹짏좷뚨퓚뫚쿤랽램훐쒿뇪쫇듓쾵춳뗄쫤죫쫤돶쫽뻝ퟔ뚯뗘닺짺헢킩맦퓲룹뻝쫤돶쒣뫽벯뗄룶쫽m닺짺m룶뺲첬믲뚯첬뗄쒣뫽쒣탍 퓚퓋폃GMDH뗄ퟔퟩ횯FRI쯣램훐뗚튻닣뗄쫤죫쫇평돵쪼뗄쫤죫뇤솿뗄쫤죫쒣뫽벯쯹쏨쫶뗚튻닣뗄쫤죫뗄룶쫽쫇평쒣뫽벯뗄ퟜ쫽m뫍쫤죫뇤솿뗄룶쫽n좷뚨벴떱닺짺튻룶뺲첬뗄쒣탍쪱폐 2001쓪9퓂20죕쫕룥 * 쓐??㈴쯪??쮶쪿짺
뗚1웚 쇵톧짺 뗈: 쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램벰GDP훷튪펰쿬틲쯘럖컶 93 nm룶쫤죫짱뺭풪뛔폚튻룶뚯첬뗄쒣탍폐n(L+1)m룶쫤죫짱뺭풪L쫇ퟮ듳뗄쪱볤퇓동 춼1룸돶쇋튻룶뛠닣뗄GMDH뷡릹웤훐쎿룶짱뺭풪폐2룶쫤죫xjxl(,)ik뫍튻룶쫤돶r(y)죧맻xj∧xlk 퓲yr(i,j,k,l)퓋폃쒣뫽싟벭쎿룶짱뺭풪평뫏좡퓋쯣닺짺벴쒣뫽벯뗄AND솪뫏웤iퟮ듳ퟮ킡췆샭캪 yrjl(i,j,k,l)=min(x,x) ik퓚뗚튻닣쒣뫽쒣탍쫤돶yr(i,j,k,l)(r=1,2,L,m)쫇퓚쯹폐쫤죫뛔(xj,xl)(,,tiki=1,2,Lnki, j=1,2,L,m,l=1,2,L,m)뗄쯹폐맛달횵t=1,2,,N짏뷸탐맀볆쯹폐뿉쓜뗄ퟩ뫏닺짺틔뫳F룶ퟮ뫃뗄2쫤죫맦퓲붫놻톡돶폃살ퟷ캪뗚뛾닣뗄쫤죫뷸튻늽닺짺폐23믲4룶쫤죫뗄쒣뫽맦퓲쒣탍즸톡뗄훷튪ힼ퓲캪 NQ1(i,j,k,l)=∑|y(i,j,k,l)−yr|ttt=1 NQ=∑y−r22(i,j,k,l)((i,j,k,l)y)ttt=1xx11 1 min min max xm1 x1 min min max xii yr xm min min max i1xxn n minmin max xmn 즸톡 즸톡 즸톡 즸톡 뗚1듺 뗚2듺 뗚 n듺 춼1 맦퓲뗄닺짺뷡릹 쯦ퟅ닣쫽뗄퓶볓떱톡퓱ힼ퓲Q1(Q2)뗄횵늻복랴퓶쪱돌탲뻍춣횹(볙짨듋쪱캪뗚n닣)평튻룶뮻몯쫽yrmij)=max(yij(,n,yn)닺짺쯹폐뗚n닣쫤돶뗄F룶ퟮ뫃쒣탍뗄컶좡뛔헢샯yijn,yn쫇뗚n닣뗄쫤돶i=1,2,,Fj>i듓ힼ퓲Q1(Q2)뗄틢틥짏뾴ퟮ뫃뗄쒣뫽맦퓲붫닺짺ퟮ훕뗄쒣뫽쒣탍yrm뛔r=1,2,,m훘뢴짏쏦뗄맽돌닺짺쇋ퟮ훕뗄m룶쒣뫽쒣탍yrm(r=1,2,L,m) 쓦쒣뫽뮯 죧맻튪쟳쫤돶뇤솿퓚풭쪼쫽뻝뿢쫇뿉폃뗄퓲뛔쯼뷸탐쓦쒣뫽뮯폃GMDH랽램붫맀볆뗄쒣뫽쫤돶yr(r=1,2,,m)쪸솿뮻캪쟥컺횵뗄풭쪼쟸볤웤뮻릫쪽캪y=y1y2(,,L,yrf)죧쪹폃GMDH랽램평쒣뫽쫤돶yr(r=1,2,,m)뗄쿟탔ퟩ뫏살뇭쪾쫤돶 my=a0+∑aiy ii=13 펦폃쪵샽 놾컄틔쯄뒨GDP퓶뎤뗄훷튪펰쿬틲쯘럖컶캪샽틔ퟔퟩ횯쯣램훐뗄FRI랽램캪훷춬쪱퓋폃쇋GMDH랽램늢쪵쪩쇋솽훖랽램뗄ퟩ뫏풤닢붫룷랽쏦틲쯘뚼쓉죫쾵춳평볆쯣믺듓쫽뻝뗄뷇뛈즸톡뇤솿늢좷죏룷뇤솿뗄쪵볊ퟷ폃듳킡쿪쾸퇝쪾쇋FRI뗄붨쒣늽훨 컄훐폃떽쇋1985~2000쓪쯄뒨맺쏱뺭볃쾵춳뗄27룶뇤솿뗄16ퟩ맛달쫽뻝횵[7]웤훐x1캪맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(GDP)(틚풪)x2캪죋뿚쫽(췲죋)x3캪횰릤욽뻹릤(풪)x4캪쪧튵죋쫽(췲죋)x5캪듓튵죋쫽(췲
9 4 뗧 ퟓ 뿆 벼 듳 톧 톧 놨 뗚31뻭 죋)x6캪돇쿧뻓쏱뒢탮듦뿮폠뛮(틚풪)x7캪뻓쏱욽뻹쿻럑쮮욽(풪/죋)x8캪릤튵ퟜ닺횵(틚풪)x9캪만뚨닺ퟜ춶(틚풪)x10캪뷸돶뿚ퟜ뛮(틚쏀풪)x11캪폊뗧튵컱ퟜ솿(췲풪)x12캪릤얩튵ퟜ닺횵(틚풪)x13캪쓜풴짺닺ퟜ솿(췲뛖뇪ힼ쎺)x14캪짧믡쿻럑욷쇣쫛ퟜ뛮(틚풪)x15캪웕춨룟뗈톧킣퓚킣짺죋쫽(죋)x16캪붨훾튵ퟜ닺횵(틚풪)x17캪믵컯훜솿(틚뛖릫샯)x18캪뿍퓋훜솿(틚죋릫샯)x19캪얩쇖쓁폦튵ퟜ닺횵(틚풪)x20캪믹놾붨짨닆헾횧돶(틚풪)x21캪뗘랽닆헾튻냣풤쯣쫕죫(틚풪)x22캪뗘랽닆헾튻냣풤쯣횧돶(틚풪)x23캪횰릤ퟜ릤(틚풪)x24캪뷰죚믺릹룷쿮듦뿮쓪쒩폠뛮(틚풪)x25캪뷰죚믺릹룷쿮듻뿮쓪쒩폠뛮(틚풪)x26캪돶뿚ퟜ뛮(틚쏀풪)x27캪뷸뿚ퟜ뛮(틚쏀풪)붫16ퟩ쫽뻝럖돉톧쾰벯NA13뫍킣퇩벯NB3벯뫏NA폃살뒴붨쒣탍벯뫏NB폃살풤닢볬퇩 룹뻝ퟮ폅뢴퓓뛈쒣탍듦퓚샭싛ퟮ폅뢴퓓뛈쒣탍뫜죝틗듯떽뿉닉폃FRI뫍GMDH랽램 FRI랽램 쫗쿈뛔쫽뻝뷸탐쒣뫽뮯뛔풭쪼쫽뻝좡닮럖(쪹폃∆x=xxi,ti,t+1−i2,3,,27뫍i,t∆y=yt+1−y)폃욽뻹뗄Lambda탍솥쫴몯쫽붫쫤죫쿲솿X=(x2,x3,L,x뫍쫤돶y=x1뗈뻠쒣뫽tt27)뮯돉3룶폯퇔뇤솿ퟩ돉뗄쒣뫽쿲솿∆x123123(2,∆x2,∆x2,L,∆x27,∆x27,∆x27)뫍∆y1∆2∆3(,y,y)헢퇹뻍닺짺쇋81룶폯퇔뇤솿뗄쫽뻝벯뫏퓙샻폃헢81룶폯퇔뇤솿뗄벯뫏뒴붨튻룶뻟폐4쓪훍뫳뗄쒣뫽맦퓲뚯첬쾵춳벴듓324룶폯퇔뇤솿뗄탅쾢뻘헳돶랢퓚톧쾰벯NA짏럖뇰뛔∆yi(i=1,2,3)뒴붨튻쳵쒣뫽맦퓲쎿튻쳵쒣뫽맦퓲붫평벸룶쿈잰캴횪뗄폯퇔뇤솿춨맽AND/OR/NOT닙ퟷ럻솬뷓웰살ퟩ돉 퓚풤닢쇋캴살솽쓪뗄쒣뫽맦퓲쾵춳횮뫳샻폃쿠펦뗄쓦쒣뫽뮯쒣탍뗃떽쇋ퟮ돵뗄쫤돶Y닮럖횵뗄풤닢쓦쒣뫽뮯뗄쒣탍캪 ∆y=(∆y1,∆y2,∆y3f) t쯄뒨GDP뗄맦퓲죧쿂 R1 죧맻t?3웚뗄횰릤욽뻹릤늻쫇쇣(폫퇹놾뗄뻹횵욫샫뷏풶)늢쟒t?2웚뗄릤튵ퟜ닺횵늻쫇헽뗄(폫퇹놾뗄ퟮ듳횵욫샫뷏풶)t?1웚뗄뿍퓋훜솿쫇쇣t?3웚뗄릤튵ퟜ닺횵늻쫇쇣퓲GDP뻍쫇쇣(폫퇹놾뗄뻹횵뫜뷓뷼) 뻸뛔컳닮ퟜ뫍캪 0욽뻹뻸뛔냙럖뇈컳닮캪뷼쯆랽닮캪 3 R2 죧맻t?2웚뗄릤튵ퟜ닺횵쫇헽뗄(폫퇹놾뗄ퟮ듳횵뫜뷓뷼)GDP튲쫇헽뗄죧맻t?1웚뗄듓튵죋쫽늻쫇헽뗄늢쟒t?1웚뗄붨훾튵ퟜ닺횵늻쫇뢺뗄t?4웚뗄뻓쏱쿻럑쮮욽늻쫇헽뗄t?1웚뗄짧믡쿻럑욷쇣쫛ퟜ뛮늻쫇뢺뗄퓲GDP뻍쫇헽뗄(폫퇹놾뗄ퟮ듳횵뫜뷓뷼) 뻸뛔컳닮ퟜ뫍캪 0욽뻹뻸뛔냙럖뇈컳닮캪뷼쯆랽닮캪 0쯹뗃떽뗄쓦쒣뫽뮯뗄쒣탍캪 ∆y= 843 + 169∆y1 + 500∆y2 (1) 쪽훐 ∆y캪맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵GDP뗄닮럖∆y1캪쇣_GDP∆y2캪헽_GDP욽뻹뻸뛔컳닮캪뷼쯆랽닮캪 0평폚∆y=y+1−y쯹틔yy+ytttt+1=∆평듋뗃돶뛔캴살솽쓪뗄풤닢횵벰웤컳닮tt죧뇭1쯹쪾평폚뗃떽뗄FRI쒣탍쎻폐럇훍뫳뇤솿쯹틔럇뎣쫊뫏폚풤닢 뇭1 FRI랽램풤닢뗄뷡맻벰뻸뛔냙럖뇈컳닮 쪱볤/쓪 헦쪵횵 풤닢횵 뻸뛔컳닮/() 1998 3 3 4 1999 3 4 0 2000 4 3 0 GMDH랽램 놾컄닉폃쿟탔쒣탍샻폃NA짏뗄쫽뻝벯뫏(13탐27쇐)뫍쯹톡뚨뗄쾵춳쪱볤훍뫳4평GMDH랽램ퟔ뚯뒴붨쇋죧쿂탅쾢
뗚1웚 쇵톧짺 뗈: 쒣뫽맦퓲맩쓉램벰GDP훷튪펰쿬틲쯘럖컶 95 x1=f(x,x,L,xLxxLx ,t2,t3,t27,,,,,),t2,t−13,t−127,t−4폃쯹뗃떽뗄쾵춳쒣탍살풤닢캴살2쓪뗄쫤돶y펦폃GMDH랽램뒴붨뗄뻟폐ퟮ폅뢴퓓뛈뗄쿟탔뚯첬쒣탍죧쿂 y=x1=− 899+ 167x11,−1+ 740x13+ 928x7+ 754xt25,t−2 (2) 웤훐뻸뛔컳닮ퟜ뫍캪 5욽뻹뻸뛔컳닮캪뷼쯆랽닮캪 0풤닢뷡맻죧뇭2쯹쪾 뇭2 GMDH랽램풤닢뗄뷡맻벰뻸뛔냙럖뇈컳닮 쪱볤/쓪 헦쪵횵 풤닢횵 뻸뛔컳닮/() 1998 3 3 2 0 1999 3 3 0 8 2000 4 4 0 0 펦폃솽훖랽램ퟩ뫏풤닢 펦폃GMDH랽램뒴붨뗄ퟩ뫏풤닢쒣탍캪 y = – 544y2,t-1 – (3) 쪽훐 y1캪GMDH쒣탍y2캪FRI쒣탍뻸뛔컳닮ퟜ뫍캪 0욽뻹뻸뛔컳닮캪뷼쯆랽닮캪 0ퟩ뫏풤닢뗄뷡맻죧뇭3쯹쪾 뇭3 ퟩ뫏풤닢뗄뷡맻벰뻸뛔냙럖뇈컳닮 쪱볤/쓪 헦쪵횵 풤닢횵 뻸뛔컳닮/() 1998 3 6 3 1999 3 9 2 2000 4 0 1 쒣탍럖컶 FRI랽램 듓쓦쒣뫽뮯뗄쒣탍(1)뿉틔뾴돶헦쪵뗄쫤돶폫맦퓲R1뫍R2폐맘듓틔짏뗄맦퓲뿉틔뾴돶펰쿬쯄뒨GDP퓶뎤뗄틲쯘폐횰릤욽뻹릤릤튵ퟜ닺횵뿍퓋훜솿듓튵죋쫽붨훾튵ퟜ닺횵뻓쏱욽뻹쿻럑쮮욽뫍짧믡쿻럑욷쇣쫛ퟜ뛮평듋뿉틔뗃돶죧쿂뷡싛 1) 듳솦췆뷸릤튵닺튵뷡릹뗄폅뮯짽벶얬솦퓶잿릤튵뺭볃뗄헻쳥쪵솦뫍뺺헹솦뛔쯄뒨GDP뗄퓶뎤폈캪훘튪평짏쏦뗄맦퓲(폈웤쫇맦퓲R2)뿉횪릤튵ퟜ닺횵퓚쯄뒨GDP퓶뎤훐뒦폚훷떼뗘캻쯄뒨쪡춳볆뻖ퟮ뷼릫늼뗄춳볆릫놨뇭쏷쯄뒨쪡릤튵ퟜ닺횵뛔쯄뒨맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄릱쿗싊뷓뷼50헢폫FRI뗃돶뗄릤튵ퟜ닺횵퓚쯄뒨GDP퓶뎤훐뒦폚훷떼뗘캻뗄뷡싛쿠튻훂 2) 볓뿬랢햹붨훾튵얬솦쳡룟붨훾튵뗄ퟜ닺횵폐샻폚쯄뒨GDP뗄퓶뎤쯄뒨쪡춳볆뻖ퟮ뷼릫늼뗄춳볆릫놨뇭쏷붨훾튵퓚쯄뒨GDP퓶뎤훐뗄ퟷ폃튲풽살풽쿔훸FRI쒣탍쓜릻냑헢룶틲쯘헒돶살돤럖쿔쪾쇋FRI쒣탍뷸탐틲쯘럖컶뗄폅풽탔 3) 얬솦룄짆죋쏱짺믮쳡룟횰릤뗄욽뻹릤좷놣샍뚯헟뗄돤럖뻍튵퓶볓뻍튵죋쫽뛔쯄뒨GDP뗄퓶뎤튲폐뷏듳뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃 4) 쳡룟뻓쏱뗄욽뻹쿻럑쮮욽퓶잿웤쿻럑탅탄듌벤쿻럑탨쟳쪵쿖쯄뒨GDP뗄뿬쯙퓶뎤 5) 볓쯙랢햹싃폎닺튵붻춨퓋쫤튵듸뚯뿍퓋훜솿듳럹뛈퓶볓폐샻폚쯄뒨GDP뗄퓶뎤 GMDH랽램 평쒣탍(2)뿉틔뾴돶펰쿬쯄뒨GDP뗄틲쯘뮹폐뻓쏱욽뻹쿻럑쮮욽폊뗧튵컱ퟜ솿쓜풴짺닺ퟜ솿뫍뷰죚믺릹룷쿮듻뿮쓪쒩폠뛮평듋뗃떽죧쿂뗄뷡싛
9 6 뗧 ퟓ 뿆 벼 듳 톧 톧 놨 뗚31뻭 1) 쳡룟뻓쏱뗄욽뻹쿻럑쮮욽쓜듳듳퓶볓쯄뒨GDP듓쒣탍(2)훐뻓쏱뗄욽뻹쿻럑쮮욽뗄쾵쫽 928뿉틔뾴돶쯄뒨뗄GDP퓶뎤훷튪쫜뻓쏱욽뻹쿻럑쮮욽뗄펰쿬 2) 믽벫랢햹폊뗧쫂튵쳡룟쯄뒨폊뗧튵컱ퟜ솿폐샻폚쯄뒨GDP뗄퓶뎤 3) 쪵쿖쓜풴뷡릹폅뮯뗷헻얬솦퓶볓쯄뒨쓜풴짺닺ퟜ솿쪵쿖쯄뒨GDP뗄뿬쯙퓶뎤듓쒣탍(2)훐쓜풴짺닺ퟜ솿뗄쾵쫽쫇 740틲뛸쓜풴짺닺ퟜ솿뛔쯄뒨GDP뗄펰쿬살쮵뇈뷏듳 4) 믽벫퓶볓탅듻춶죫퓚놣헏듳훐탍웳튵탅듻탨쟳뗄춬쪱듌벤쿻럑탅듻튵컱뗄엮늪랢햹쓜폐킧퓶볓뷰죚믺릹룷쿮듻뿮쓪쒩폠뛮듓뛸듳듳볓쯙쯄뒨GDP뗄퓶뎤 4 뷡 쫸 폯 듓짏쏦뗄샽ퟓ뿉틔뾴돶FRI뫍GMDH랽램뚼쓜캪GDP펰쿬틲쯘뗄럖컶맣랺뗘듓쫽뻝훐돩좡튻킩탅쾢떫쫇듓풤닢뗄뷡맻살뾴FRI뗄풤닢킧맻튪폅폚GMDH랽램늢쟒FRI뛔GDP펰쿬틲쯘럖컶뗄쏨쫶룼뷓뷼폚ퟔ좻폯퇔뻟폐룼잿뗄뿉뷢쫍탔떱좻평폚죎뫎튻룶쒣탍뚼쫇튻훖쳘뚨뗄돩쿳횻랴펳쇋쿖쪵뗄튻킩훘튪쳘헷뗄쒳룶믲쒳벸룶랽쏦쯹틔냑FRI뫍GMDH랽램쯹뗃뗄쒣탍ퟩ뫏웰살풤닢뗃떽쇋뷏뫃뗄킧맻튲헒떽쇋펰쿬GDP퓶뎤뗄뷏좫쏦뗄틲쯘캪뺭볃랢햹햽싔뗄훆뚨쳡릩쇋폐볛횵뗄탅쾢 닎 뾼 컄 쿗 1 Takagi T, Sugeno M. Fuzzy Identification of Systems and its Application to Modelling and Transaction on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,1985,15(1): 116-132 2 쇵웕틺, 컢쏏듯. 쒣뫽샭싛벰웤펦폃. 뎤즳: 맺럀뿆벼듳톧돶냦짧, 1998 3 뫘닽헾, 솺풪뗚, 췵 캯. 쫽톧붨쒣떼싛. 돉뚼: 돉뚼뿆벼듳톧돶냦짧, 1997, 146-167 4 Mueller J-A, Lemke F. Self-Organising Data Mining[M]. Hamburg: Libri, 2000,131-137, 180-187 5 쇵놦. 쒣뫽ힼ퓲뻶닟맽돌벰뷸튻늽퇐뺿. 뗧ퟓ뿆벼듳톧톧놨, 1997, 26(퓶): 595-599 6 쳯틦쿩. 훐뎤웚풤닢쒣탍뗄GMDH솽쮮욽쯣램. 뗧ퟓ뿆벼듳톧톧놨, 1997, 26(퓶): 576-579 7 쯄뒨쪡춳볆뻖. 쯄뒨춳볆쓪본-1985-2000. 놱뺩: 훐맺춳볆돶냦짧, 1985, 2000 Fuzzy Rule Induction and the Analysis of Some Critical Factors Affecting the Increase of GDP Liu Xuesheng He Yue He Changzheng (Dept. of Management Science and Eng., School of Business Administration, Sichuan University Chengdu 610064) Abstract In this paper we use a new self-organizing data mining methodFuzzy Rule Induction(FRI), which extracts Fuzzy rules based on GMDH technique from the data autonomously to form the Fuzzy Model described in a more natural language. Some principles and processes of FRI method are developed in this paper. A model case about the economy in SiChuan Province of China is presented to analyzing some critical factors affecting the increase of GDP of SiChuan, while the related suggestions of policy are derived from this foundation. In addition, the comparison between the FRI and the GMDH has showed the advantage of FRI in anglicizing factor. Key words FRI; data mining; the analysis of factor; GMDH ; GDP
