2013年6月
银行业：流动性与基本面的权衡
银河证券银行组 黄斌辉
核心观点
短期看，经济弱复苏下银行基本面难以超预期；对同业监管、利率市场化推进的担忧制约估值；财政收入放缓，流动性宽松为保增长基本要件；成长股不断上升的估值压力，银行板块配置偏低的再平衡间或催生阶段性交易机会，看好弹性较高的平安、招商。
全年看，经济增长与控风险的政策所要求的平衡度高，外汇管制、CPI上行构成流动性宽松的反制因素，膨胀的信用规模难以持续高增长；资产压力关注度会陆续提高，看好大型银行的防御表现。
关键认识之一：市场对于银监会对“量”的约束政策关注较多，我们认为央行流动性管理变化对“价”的影响进而促使社会融资增速的变化更需要关注。流动性宽松为保增长基本要件；央行营造的宽松流动性环境是社会融资规模膨胀的基础；下半年外汇管制、CPI上行构成流动性宽松的反制因素，预计下半年信用规模膨胀边际速度放缓；
关键认识之二：全年看，实现经济增长与控风险的政策平衡度要求高；风险偏好在业绩与风险结果显示的时滞增加了银行个股选择的难度。
基本面：需要关注一季报所反映三大变化
资产压力上升。上市银行一季末不良余额环比增加325亿元/%。
资本约束增强。杠杆率低于%的6家银行4家放缓资产增速。
银行放缓信用扩张步伐。日均生息资产增速平稳，同业资产回归传统。
息差：到期重定价压力
贷款定价：需求不足使得贷款到期重定价压力比期限重定价压力大
风险偏好影响同业息差：以平安银行为例
资产压力上升
资产压力：关注温州
Chart1
40939
40968
40999
41029
41060
41090
41182
41305
41333
不良率
关注率
Sheet1
不良率
12/31/10
6/30/11 %
7/31/11 %
8/31/11 % 23
9/30/11 % 34
10/31/11 % 42
11/30/11
12/31/11 % %
1/31/12 %
2/29/12 %
3/31/12 %
4/30/12 %
5/31/12 % 161
6/30/12 %
7/31/12 % %
8/31/12 3% %
9/30/12 %
10/31/12 % %
11/30/12 % %
12/31/12 % %
1/31/13 %
2/28/13 %
3/31/13 % %
4/30/13
5/31/13
6/30/13
7/31/13 不良率 关注率
8/31/13 12/31/11 % %
1/31/12 %
2/29/12 %
3/31/12 %
4/30/12 %
5/31/12 %
6/30/12 %
7/31/12 % %
8/31/12 3% %
9/30/12 %
10/31/12 % %
11/30/12 % %
12/31/12 % %
1/31/13 %
2/28/13 %
3/31/13 % %
Sheet1
40939
40968
40999
41029
41060
41090
41182
41305
41333
不良率
关注率
Sheet2
Sheet3
资产压力：美国的例子
Chart1
逾期率
GDP同比
Sheet5
Select this link and click Refresh/Edit Download to update data and add or remove series FDIC Commercial Banks: Total Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Less, Reserve for Losses FDIC Commercial Banks: Net Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Loans & Leases 30-89 Days Past Due FDIC Commercial Banks: Non Current Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Restructured Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Net Charge Offs
Country United States United States United States United States United States United States United States
Frequency Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec"
Unit USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn
Source Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Status Active Active Active Active Active Active Active
Series Code 42169001 (UKTBBG) 42169101 (UKTBC) 42169201 (UKTBD) 42170501 (UKTBNA) 42170601 (UKTBNB) 42170701 (UKTBNC) 42172801 (UKTBOK)
Function Information
First Obs. Date 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 贷款还原 逾期
Last Obs. Date 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1
Last Update time 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 逾期率 GDP同比
1970/1 2,149, 52, 2,096, 28, 42, 10, 4, 2,154, 86, 1970/1
1970/1 2,162, 52, 2,110, 29, 40, 6, 2, 2,165, 78, 1970/1
1970/1 2,220, 52, 2,167, 25, 35, 6, 3, 2,223, 70, 1970/1
1970/1 2,280, 52, 2,228, 26, 33, 6, 2, 2,283, 68, 1970/1
1970/1 2,358, 52, 2,306, 28, 30, 6, 3, 2,361, 68, 1970/1
1970/1 2,423, 52, 2,370, 30, 32, 5, 2, 2,425, 70, 1970/1
1970/1 2,498, 52, 2,445, 28, 31, 5, 2, 2,501, 68, 1970/1
1970/1 2,555, 52, 2,502, 31, 31, 4, 3, 2,558, 70, 1970/1
1970/1 2,602, 52, 2,549, 33, 30, 3, 3, 2,606, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,632, 52, 2,579, 34, 31, 3, 3, 2,635, 72, 1970/1
1970/1 2,690, 53, 2,637, 33, 30, 3, 3, 2,694, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,738, 53, 2,684, 34, 30, 4, 3, 2,741, 72, 1970/1
1970/1 2,811, 53, 2,757, 38, 29, 3, 4, 2,815, 75, 1970/1
1970/1 2,772, 53, 2,718, 38, 29, 3, 4, 2,776, 74, 1970/1
1970/1 2,865, 54, 2,811, 35, 28, 3, 4, 2,870, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,902, 54, 2,848, 35, 28, 2, 4, 2,907, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,970, 54, 2,916, 39, 28, 2, 5, 2,975, 75, 1970/1
1970/1 3,023, 55, 2,968, 38, 29, 2, 4, 3,028, 75, 1970/1
1970/1 3,091, 56, 3,035, 35, 29, 1, 4, 3,096, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 3,145, 57, 3,088, 37, 29, 1, 5, 3,151, 74, 1970/1
1970/1 3,238, 57, 3,181, 40, 31, 1, 5, 3,244, 79, 1970/1
1970/1 3,251, 57, 3,193, 39, 32, 1, 4, 3,256, 77, 1970/1
1970/1 3,308, 57, 3,250, 36, 31, 1, 4, 3,313, 74, 1970/1
1970/1 3,362, 58, 3,303, 39, 32, 1, 4, 3,366, 78, 1970/1
1970/1 3,491, 58, 3,432, 39, 32, 1, 6, 3,497, 79, 1970/1
1970/1 3,567, 59, 3,507, 39, 34, 1, 5, 3,572, 80, 1970/1
1970/1 3,704, 61, 3,642, 39, 36, 1, 5, 3,709, 82, 1970/1
1970/1 3,779, 62, 3,716, 43, 38, 1, 5, 3,784, 89, 1970/1
1970/1 3,819, 64, 3,755, 47, 42, 1, 8, 3,828, 101, 1970/1
1970/1 3,831, 64, 3,766, 47, 46, 1, 6, 3,838, 101, 1970/1
1970/1 3,859, 65, 3,793, 46, 48, 1, 7, 3,866, 104, 1970/1
1970/1 3,860, 68, 3,792, 52, 51, 1, 9, 3,870, 114, 1970/1
1970/1 3,889, 72, 3,817, 53, 54, 1, 12, 3,902, 122, 1970/1
1970/1 3,886, 74, 3,811, 48, 57, 1, 11, 3,897, 118, 1970/1
1970/1 3,963, 74, 3,888, 45, 58, 1, 10, 3,973, 116, 1970/1
1970/1 4,067, 75, 3,992, 46, 61, 1, 11, 4,079, 120, 1970/1
1970/1 4,156, 76, 4,079, 48, 60, 1, 11, 4,167, 122, 1970/1
1970/1 4,193, 77, 4,116, 46, 58, 1, 9, 4,203, 116, 1970/1
1970/1 4,293, 77, 4,216, 42, 56, 1, 9, 4,303, 110, 1970/1
1970/1 4,350, 76, 4,274, 41, 54, 1, 8, 4,359, 105, 1970/1
1970/1 4,428, 77, 4,351, 45, 52, 1, 9, 4,438, 109, 1970/1
1970/1 4,489, 75, 4,413, 39, 48, 8, 4,497, 97, 1970/1
1970/1 4,672, 75, 4,597, 38, 44, 7, 4,680, 91, 1970/1
1970/1 4,815, 75, 4,740, 41, 43, 6, 4,821, 92, 1970/1
1970/1 4,904, 73, 4,830, 42, 42, 8, 4,912, 93, 1970/1
1970/1 4,980, 71, 4,908, 41, 39, 6, 4,986, 88, 1970/1
1970/1 5,129, 70, 5,058, 38, 39, 6, 5,135, 85, 1970/1
1970/1 5,266, 70, 5,195, 43, 39, 7, 5,273, 91, 1970/1
1970/1 5,380, 68, 5,311, 47, 40, 8, 5,388, 97, 1970/1
1970/1 5,498, 69, 5,429, 45, 39, 4, 5,503, 90, 1970/1
1970/1 5,659, 69, 5,589, 44, 39, 5, 5,664, 89, 1970/1
1970/1 5,733, 69, 5,664, 49, 42, 6, 5,739, 99, 1970/1
1970/1 5,980, 68, 5,911, 58, 47, 7, 5,987, 114, 1970/1
1970/1 5,972, 69, 5,902, 56, 49, 7, 5,979, 114, 1970/1
1970/1 6,162, 72, 6,090, 58, 53, 7, 6,170, 121, 1970/1
1970/1 6,380, 76, 6,304, 72, 65, 1, 9, 6,389, 148, 1970/1
1970/1 6,626, 89, 6,537, 85, 86, 2, 14, 6,640, 188, 1970/1
1970/1 6,666, 102, 6,563, 88, 107, 8, 15, 6,682, 220, 1970/1
1970/1 6,680, 118, 6,562, 87, 124, 5, 20, 6,701, 238, 1970/1
1970/1 6,941, 137, 6,804, 101, 157, 13, 24, 6,966, 297, 1970/1
1970/1 6,838, 156, 6,681, 134, 201, 15, 33, 6,871, 385, 1970/1
1970/1 6,720, 176, 6,544, 135, 250, 22, 34, 6,754, 442, 1970/1
1970/1 6,714, 195, 6,519, 122, 292, 35, 45, 6,759, 496, 1970/1
1970/1 6,537, 204, 6,332, 124, 328, 38, 46, 6,583, 537, 1970/1
1970/1 6,495, 213, 6,281, 125, 363, 49, 51, 6,546, 589, 1970/1
1970/1 6,719, 248, 6,471, 127, 372, 54, 49, 6,769, 603, 1970/1
1970/1 6,620, 237, 6,382, 112, 353, 55, 46, 6,667, 568, 1970/1
1970/1 6,610, 228, 6,382, 111, 344, 64, 40, 6,651, 561, 1970/1
1970/1 6,595, 217, 6,377, 105, 326, 71, 39, 6,634, 543, 1970/1
1970/1 6,485, 205, 6,279, 99, 311, 103, 31, 6,516, 545, 1970/1
1970/1 6,565, 195, 6,370, 92, 292, 108, 26, 6,592, 520, 1970/1
1970/1 6,586, 185, 6,401, 90, 286, 114, 24, 6,611, 517, 1970/1
1970/1 6,719, 178, 6,540, 90, 285, 118, 23, 6,742, 517, 1970/1
1970/1 6,738, 172, 6,565, 81, 280, 116, 19, 6,758, 498, 1970/1
1970/1 6,837, 166, 6,671, 76, 268, 99, 19, 6,856, 463, 1970/1
1970/1 6,900, 157, 6,743, 78, 270, 97, 20, 6,921, 467, 1970/1
1970/1 7,047, 152, 6,895, 80, 255, 97, 17, 7,065, 451, 1970/1
1970/1 7,025, 145, 6,879, 73, 241, 99, 14, 7,040, 428, 1970/1
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
Sheet5
逾期率
GDP同比
Sheet4
Select this link and click Refresh/Edit Download to update data and add or remove series Nominal GDP: USD mn
Country Albania
Frequency Annual, Ending "dec" Of Each Year
Unit USD mn
Source CEIC Generate
Status Active
Series Code 134347408
Function Information
First Obs. Date 1970
Last Obs. Date 1970
Last Update time 5/29/13
1970 3,
1970 2,
1970 2,
1970 3,
1970 3,
1970 4,
1970 4,
1970 5,
1970 7,
1970 8,
1970 8,
1970 10,
1970 12,
1970 12,
1970 11,
1970 12,
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
Sheet1
Select this link and click Refresh/Edit Download to update data and add or remove series Nominal GDP: USD mn
Country Albania
Frequency Annual, Ending "dec" Of Each Year
Unit USD mn
Source CEIC Generate
Status Active
Series Code 134347408
Function Information
First Obs. Date 1970
Last Obs. Date 1970
Last Update time 5/29/13
1970 3,
1970 2,
1970 2,
1970 3,
1970 3,
1970 4,
1970 4,
1970 5,
1970 7,
1970 8,
1970 8,
1970 10,
1970 12,
1970 12,
1970 11,
1970 12,
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
Sheet2
Sheet3
资产压力：美国的例子
Chart1
逾期率
GDP同比
Sheet5
Select this link and click Refresh/Edit Download to update data and add or remove series FDIC Commercial Banks: Total Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Less, Reserve for Losses FDIC Commercial Banks: Net Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Loans & Leases 30-89 Days Past Due FDIC Commercial Banks: Non Current Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Restructured Loans and Leases FDIC Commercial Banks: Net Charge Offs
Country United States United States United States United States United States United States United States
Frequency Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec" Quarterly, Ending "mar, June, Sep, Dec"
Unit USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn USD mn
Source Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Status Active Active Active Active Active Active Active
Series Code 42169001 (UKTBBG) 42169101 (UKTBC) 42169201 (UKTBD) 42170501 (UKTBNA) 42170601 (UKTBNB) 42170701 (UKTBNC) 42172801 (UKTBOK)
Function Information
First Obs. Date 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 贷款还原 逾期
Last Obs. Date 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1 1970/1
Last Update time 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 5/30/13 逾期率 GDP同比
1970/1 2,149, 52, 2,096, 28, 42, 10, 4, 2,154, 86, 1970/1
1970/1 2,162, 52, 2,110, 29, 40, 6, 2, 2,165, 78, 1970/1
1970/1 2,220, 52, 2,167, 25, 35, 6, 3, 2,223, 70, 1970/1
1970/1 2,280, 52, 2,228, 26, 33, 6, 2, 2,283, 68, 1970/1
1970/1 2,358, 52, 2,306, 28, 30, 6, 3, 2,361, 68, 1970/1
1970/1 2,423, 52, 2,370, 30, 32, 5, 2, 2,425, 70, 1970/1
1970/1 2,498, 52, 2,445, 28, 31, 5, 2, 2,501, 68, 1970/1
1970/1 2,555, 52, 2,502, 31, 31, 4, 3, 2,558, 70, 1970/1
1970/1 2,602, 52, 2,549, 33, 30, 3, 3, 2,606, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,632, 52, 2,579, 34, 31, 3, 3, 2,635, 72, 1970/1
1970/1 2,690, 53, 2,637, 33, 30, 3, 3, 2,694, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,738, 53, 2,684, 34, 30, 4, 3, 2,741, 72, 1970/1
1970/1 2,811, 53, 2,757, 38, 29, 3, 4, 2,815, 75, 1970/1
1970/1 2,772, 53, 2,718, 38, 29, 3, 4, 2,776, 74, 1970/1
1970/1 2,865, 54, 2,811, 35, 28, 3, 4, 2,870, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,902, 54, 2,848, 35, 28, 2, 4, 2,907, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 2,970, 54, 2,916, 39, 28, 2, 5, 2,975, 75, 1970/1
1970/1 3,023, 55, 2,968, 38, 29, 2, 4, 3,028, 75, 1970/1
1970/1 3,091, 56, 3,035, 35, 29, 1, 4, 3,096, 71, 1970/1
1970/1 3,145, 57, 3,088, 37, 29, 1, 5, 3,151, 74, 1970/1
1970/1 3,238, 57, 3,181, 40, 31, 1, 5, 3,244, 79, 1970/1
1970/1 3,251, 57, 3,193, 39, 32, 1, 4, 3,256, 77, 1970/1
1970/1 3,308, 57, 3,250, 36, 31, 1, 4, 3,313, 74, 1970/1
1970/1 3,362, 58, 3,303, 39, 32, 1, 4, 3,366, 78, 1970/1
1970/1 3,491, 58, 3,432, 39, 32, 1, 6, 3,497, 79, 1970/1
1970/1 3,567, 59, 3,507, 39, 34, 1, 5, 3,572, 80, 1970/1
1970/1 3,704, 61, 3,642, 39, 36, 1, 5, 3,709, 82, 1970/1
1970/1 3,779, 62, 3,716, 43, 38, 1, 5, 3,784, 89, 1970/1
1970/1 3,819, 64, 3,755, 47, 42, 1, 8, 3,828, 101, 1970/1
1970/1 3,831, 64, 3,766, 47, 46, 1, 6, 3,838, 101, 1970/1
1970/1 3,859, 65, 3,793, 46, 48, 1, 7, 3,866, 104, 1970/1
1970/1 3,860, 68, 3,792, 52, 51, 1, 9, 3,870, 114, 1970/1
1970/1 3,889, 72, 3,817, 53, 54, 1, 12, 3,902, 122, 1970/1
1970/1 3,886, 74, 3,811, 48, 57, 1, 11, 3,897, 118, 1970/1
1970/1 3,963, 74, 3,888, 45, 58, 1, 10, 3,973, 116, 1970/1
1970/1 4,067, 75, 3,992, 46, 61, 1, 11, 4,079, 120, 1970/1
1970/1 4,156, 76, 4,079, 48, 60, 1, 11, 4,167, 122, 1970/1
1970/1 4,193, 77, 4,116, 46, 58, 1, 9, 4,203, 116, 1970/1
1970/1 4,293, 77, 4,216, 42, 56, 1, 9, 4,303, 110, 1970/1
1970/1 4,350, 76, 4,274, 41, 54, 1, 8, 4,359, 105, 1970/1
1970/1 4,428, 77, 4,351, 45, 52, 1, 9, 4,438, 109, 1970/1
1970/1 4,489, 75, 4,413, 39, 48, 8, 4,497, 97, 1970/1
1970/1 4,672, 75, 4,597, 38, 44, 7, 4,680, 91, 1970/1
1970/1 4,815, 75, 4,740, 41, 43, 6, 4,821, 92, 1970/1
1970/1 4,904, 73, 4,830, 42, 42, 8, 4,912, 93, 1970/1
1970/1 4,980, 71, 4,908, 41, 39, 6, 4,986, 88, 1970/1
1970/1 5,129, 70, 5,058, 38, 39, 6, 5,135, 85, 1970/1
1970/1 5,266, 70, 5,195, 43, 39, 7, 5,273, 91, 1970/1
1970/1 5,380, 68, 5,311, 47, 40, 8, 5,388, 97, 1970/1
1970/1 5,498, 69, 5,429, 45, 39, 4, 5,503, 90, 1970/1
1970/1 5,659, 69, 5,589, 44, 39, 5, 5,664, 89, 1970/1
1970/1 5,733, 69, 5,664, 49, 42, 6, 5,739, 99, 1970/1
1970/1 5,980, 68, 5,911, 58, 47, 7, 5,987, 114, 1970/1
1970/1 5,972, 69, 5,902, 56, 49, 7, 5,979, 114, 1970/1
1970/1 6,162, 72, 6,090, 58, 53, 7, 6,170, 121, 1970/1
1970/1 6,380, 76, 6,304, 72, 65, 1, 9, 6,389, 148, 1970/1
1970/1 6,626, 89, 6,537, 85, 86, 2, 14, 6,640, 188, 1970/1
1970/1 6,666, 102, 6,563, 88, 107, 8, 15, 6,682, 220, 1970/1
1970/1 6,680, 118, 6,562, 87, 124, 5, 20, 6,701, 238, 1970/1
1970/1 6,941, 137, 6,804, 101, 157, 13, 24, 6,966, 297, 1970/1
1970/1 6,838, 156, 6,681, 134, 201, 15, 33, 6,871, 385, 1970/1
1970/1 6,720, 176, 6,544, 135, 250, 22, 34, 6,754, 442, 1970/1
1970/1 6,714, 195, 6,519, 122, 292, 35, 45, 6,759, 496, 1970/1
1970/1 6,537, 204, 6,332, 124, 328, 38, 46, 6,583, 537, 1970/1
1970/1 6,495, 213, 6,281, 125, 363, 49, 51, 6,546, 589, 1970/1
1970/1 6,719, 248, 6,471, 127, 372, 54, 49, 6,769, 603, 1970/1
1970/1 6,620, 237, 6,382, 112, 353, 55, 46, 6,667, 568, 1970/1
1970/1 6,610, 228, 6,382, 111, 344, 64, 40, 6,651, 561, 1970/1
1970/1 6,595, 217, 6,377, 105, 326, 71, 39, 6,634, 543, 1970/1
1970/1 6,485, 205, 6,279, 99, 311, 103, 31, 6,516, 545, 1970/1
1970/1 6,565, 195, 6,370, 92, 292, 108, 26, 6,592, 520, 1970/1
1970/1 6,586, 185, 6,401, 90, 286, 114, 24, 6,611, 517, 1970/1
1970/1 6,719, 178, 6,540, 90, 285, 118, 23, 6,742, 517, 1970/1
1970/1 6,738, 172, 6,565, 81, 280, 116, 19, 6,758, 498, 1970/1
1970/1 6,837, 166, 6,671, 76, 268, 99, 19, 6,856, 463, 1970/1
1970/1 6,900, 157, 6,743, 78, 270, 97, 20, 6,921, 467, 1970/1
1970/1 7,047, 152, 6,895, 80, 255, 97, 17, 7,065, 451, 1970/1
1970/1 7,025, 145, 6,879, 73, 241, 99, 14, 7,040, 428, 1970/1
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
Sheet5
逾期率
GDP同比
Sheet4
Select this link and click Refresh/Edit Download to update data and add or remove series Nominal GDP: USD mn
Country Albania
Frequency Annual, Ending "dec" Of Each Year
Unit USD mn
Source CEIC Generate
Status Active
Series Code 134347408
Function Information
First Obs. Date 1970
Last Obs. Date 1970
Last Update time 5/29/13
1970 3,
1970 2,
1970 2,
1970 3,
1970 3,
1970 4,
1970 4,
1970 5,
1970 7,
1970 8,
1970 8,
1970 10,
1970 12,
1970 12,
1970 11,
1970 12,
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
Sheet1
Select this link and click Refresh/Edit Download to update data and add or remove series Nominal GDP: USD mn
Country Albania
Frequency Annual, Ending "dec" Of Each Year
Unit USD mn
Source CEIC Generate
Status Active
Series Code 134347408
Function Information
First Obs. Date 1970
Last Obs. Date 1970
Last Update time 5/29/13
1970 3,
1970 2,
1970 2,
1970 3,
1970 3,
1970 4,
1970 4,
1970 5,
1970 7,
1970 8,
1970 8,
1970 10,
1970 12,
1970 12,
1970 11,
1970 12,
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
Sheet2
Sheet3
13年盈利预测：回归均值
13年盈利预测：回归均值
银行投资分析五要素
银行逐渐发展到以风险偏好为核心的管理框架
银行的经营业绩取决于风险偏好选择及传导；但风险偏好在业绩与风险绩效显示上存在时滞。
存款利率浮动区间扩大付息成本评估
存款利率由2012年基准%分别上升至既定情景下%、%、%。将推升货币市场利率中枢。
存款利率浮动区间扩大盈利影响评估
短期内流动性宽松构成保增长基本要件
我们认为短期内流动性是银行板块运行主要矛盾；时间点拉长，经济增长与资产压力构成经济下行周期的主要矛盾；监管政策需要权衡，但更多地放在控风险的角度
Chart1
公共财政收入累计同比
Sheet1
Wind资讯
指标名称 GDP:当季同比 工业增加值:当月同比 财政收支差额:当月值 公共财政收入:当月同比 公共财政收入:累计同比 工业增加值:累计同比 CPI:当月同比
频率 季 月 月 月 月 月 月
1990/01
1990/02
1990/03
1990/04
1990/05
1990/06
1990/07
1990/08
1990/09
1990/10
1990/11
1990/12
1991/01
1991/02
1991/03
1991/04
1991/05
1991/06
1991/07
1991/08
1991/09
1991/10
1991/11
1991/12
1992/01
1992/02
1992/03
1992/04
1992/05
1992/06
1992/07
1992/08
1992/09
1992/10
1992/11
1992/12
1993/01
1993/02
1993/03
1993/04
1993/05
1993/06
1993/07
1993/08
1993/09
1993/10
1993/11
1993/12
1994/01
1994/02
1994/03
1994/04
1994/05
1994/06
1994/07
1994/08
1994/09
1994/10
1994/11
1994/12
1995/01
1995/02
1995/03
1995/04
1995/05
1995/06
1995/07
1995/08
1995/09
1995/10
1995/11
1995/12
1996/01
1996/02
1996/03
1996/04
1996/05
1996/06
1996/07
1996/08
1996/09
1996/10
1996/11
1996/12
1997/01
1997/02
1997/03
1997/04
1997/05
1997/06
1997/07
1997/08
1997/09
1997/10
1997/11
1997/12
1998/01
1998/02
1998/03
1998/04
1998/05
1998/06
1998/07
1998/08
1998/09
1998/10
1998/11
1998/12
1999/01
1999/02
1999/03
1999/04
1999/05
1999/06
1999/07
1999/08
1999/09
1999/10
1999/11
1999/12 -1,
2000/01
2000/02
2000/03
2000/04
2000/05
2000/06
2000/07
2000/08
2000/09
2000/10
2000/11
2000/12 -2,
2001/01
2001/02
2001/03
2001/04
2001/05
2001/06
2001/07
2001/08
2001/09
2001/10
2001/11
2001/12 -2,
2002/01
2002/02
2002/03
2002/04
2002/05
2002/06
2002/07
2002/08
2002/09
2002/10
2002/11
2002/12 -2,
2003/01
2003/02
2003/03
2003/04
2003/05
2003/06
2003/07
2003/08
2003/09
2003/10
2003/11
2003/12 -3,
2004/01 1,
2004/02
2004/03
2004/04
2004/05
2004/06
2004/07
2004/08
2004/09
2004/10
2004/11
2004/12 -5,
2005/01 1,
2005/02
2005/03
2005/04
2005/05
2005/06
2005/07
2005/08
2005/09
2005/10
2005/11
2005/12 -5,
2006/01 1,
2006/02
2006/03
2006/04 1,
2006/05
2006/06
2006/07 1,
2006/08
2006/09
2006/10 1,
2006/11 -1,
2006/12 -7,
2007/01 3,
2007/02
2007/03
2007/04 2,
2007/05 1,
2007/06
2007/07 1,
2007/08
2007/09
2007/10 1,
2007/11
2007/12 -9,
2008/01 4,
2008/02 1,
2008/03
2008/04 2,
2008/05 2,
2008/06
2008/07 1,
2008/08
2008/09
2008/10 1,
2008/11 -1,
2008/12 -13,
2009/01 2,
2009/02
2009/03
2009/04
2009/05 1,
2009/06
2009/07 1,
2009/08
2009/09
2009/10 2,
2009/11 -1,
2009/12 -14,
2010/01 5,
2010/02
2010/03
2010/04 2,
2010/05 2,
2010/06
2010/07 1,
2010/08
2010/09 -2,
2010/10 1,
2010/11 -4,
2010/12 -11,
2011/01 5,
2011/02 2,
2011/03
2011/04 2,
2011/05 2,
2011/06
2011/07 2,
2011/08
2011/09 -2,
2011/10 1,
2011/11 -4,
2011/12 -13,
2012/01 5,
2012/02 1,
2012/03 -1,
2012/04 2,
2012/05 2,
2012/06 -1,
2012/07 1,
2012/08 -1,
2012/09 -3,
2012/10 1,
2012/11 -4,
2012/12 -12,
2013/01 5,
2013/02 1,
2013/03 -1,
2013/04 2,
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
Sheet2
公共财政收入累计同比 工业增加值累计同比 CPI
2012/01
2012/02
2012/03
2012/04
2012/05
2012/06
2012/07
2012/08
2012/09
2012/10
2012/11
2012/12
2013/01
2013/02
2013/03
2013/04
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
公共财政收入累计同比
Sheet3
Chart2
40939
11
10
10
10
10
41305
工业增加值累计同比
Sheet1
Wind资讯
指标名称 GDP:当季同比 工业增加值:当月同比 财政收支差额:当月值 公共财政收入:当月同比 公共财政收入:累计同比 工业增加值:累计同比 CPI:当月同比
频率 季 月 月 月 月 月 月
1990/01
1990/02
1990/03
1990/04
1990/05
1990/06
1990/07
1990/08
1990/09
1990/10
1990/11
1990/12
1991/01
1991/02
1991/03
1991/04
1991/05
1991/06
1991/07
1991/08
1991/09
1991/10
1991/11
1991/12
1992/01
1992/02
1992/03
1992/04
1992/05
1992/06
1992/07
1992/08
1992/09
1992/10
1992/11
1992/12
1993/01
1993/02
1993/03
1993/04
1993/05
1993/06
1993/07
1993/08
1993/09
1993/10
1993/11
1993/12
1994/01
1994/02
1994/03
1994/04
1994/05
1994/06
1994/07
1994/08
1994/09
1994/10
1994/11
1994/12
1995/01
1995/02
1995/03
1995/04
1995/05
1995/06
1995/07
1995/08
1995/09
1995/10
1995/11
1995/12
1996/01
1996/02
1996/03
1996/04
1996/05
1996/06
1996/07
1996/08
1996/09
1996/10
1996/11
1996/12
1997/01
1997/02
1997/03
1997/04
1997/05
1997/06
1997/07
1997/08
1997/09
1997/10
1997/11
1997/12
1998/01
1998/02
1998/03
1998/04
1998/05
1998/06
1998/07
1998/08
1998/09
1998/10
1998/11
1998/12
1999/01
1999/02
1999/03
1999/04
1999/05
1999/06
1999/07
1999/08
1999/09
1999/10
1999/11
1999/12 -1,
2000/01
2000/02
2000/03
2000/04
2000/05
2000/06
2000/07
2000/08
2000/09
2000/10
2000/11
2000/12 -2,
2001/01
2001/02
2001/03
2001/04
2001/05
2001/06
2001/07
2001/08
2001/09
2001/10
2001/11
2001/12 -2,
2002/01
2002/02
2002/03
2002/04
2002/05
2002/06
2002/07
2002/08
2002/09
2002/10
2002/11
2002/12 -2,
2003/01
2003/02
2003/03
2003/04
2003/05
2003/06
2003/07
2003/08
2003/09
2003/10
2003/11
2003/12 -3,
2004/01 1,
2004/02
2004/03
2004/04
2004/05
2004/06
2004/07
2004/08
2004/09
2004/10
2004/11
2004/12 -5,
2005/01 1,
2005/02
2005/03
2005/04
2005/05
2005/06
2005/07
2005/08
2005/09
2005/10
2005/11
2005/12 -5,
2006/01 1,
2006/02
2006/03
2006/04 1,
2006/05
2006/06
2006/07 1,
2006/08
2006/09
2006/10 1,
2006/11 -1,
2006/12 -7,
2007/01 3,
2007/02
2007/03
2007/04 2,
2007/05 1,
2007/06
2007/07 1,
2007/08
2007/09
2007/10 1,
2007/11
2007/12 -9,
2008/01 4,
2008/02 1,
2008/03
2008/04 2,
2008/05 2,
2008/06
2008/07 1,
2008/08
2008/09
2008/10 1,
2008/11 -1,
2008/12 -13,
2009/01 2,
2009/02
2009/03
2009/04
2009/05 1,
2009/06
2009/07 1,
2009/08
2009/09
2009/10 2,
2009/11 -1,
2009/12 -14,
2010/01 5,
2010/02
2010/03
2010/04 2,
2010/05 2,
2010/06
2010/07 1,
2010/08
2010/09 -2,
2010/10 1,
2010/11 -4,
2010/12 -11,
2011/01 5,
2011/02 2,
2011/03
2011/04 2,
2011/05 2,
2011/06
2011/07 2,
2011/08
2011/09 -2,
2011/10 1,
2011/11 -4,
2011/12 -13,
2012/01 5,
2012/02 1,
2012/03 -1,
2012/04 2,
2012/05 2,
2012/06 -1,
2012/07 1,
2012/08 -1,
2012/09 -3,
2012/10 1,
2012/11 -4,
2012/12 -12,
2013/01 5,
2013/02 1,
2013/03 -1,
2013/04 2,
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
Sheet2
公共财政收入累计同比 工业增加值累计同比 CPI
2012/01
2012/02
2012/03
2012/04
2012/05
2012/06
2012/07
2012/08
2012/09
2012/10
2012/11
2012/12
2013/01
2013/02
2013/03
2013/04
Sheet2
公共财政收入累计同比
Sheet3
工业增加值累计同比
公共财政收入累计同比
Chart3
3
2
2
2
CPI
Sheet1
Wind资讯
指标名称 GDP:当季同比 工业增加值:当月同比 财政收支差额:当月值 公共财政收入:当月同比 公共财政收入:累计同比 工业增加值:累计同比 CPI:当月同比
频率 季 月 月 月 月 月 月
1990/01
1990/02
1990/03
1990/04
1990/05
1990/06
1990/07
1990/08
1990/09
1990/10
1990/11
1990/12
1991/01
1991/02
1991/03
1991/04
1991/05
1991/06
1991/07
1991/08
1991/09
1991/10
1991/11
1991/12
1992/01
1992/02
1992/03
1992/04
1992/05
1992/06
1992/07
1992/08
1992/09
1992/10
1992/11
1992/12
1993/01
1993/02
1993/03
1993/04
1993/05
1993/06
1993/07
1993/08
1993/09
1993/10
1993/11
1993/12
1994/01
1994/02
1994/03
1994/04
1994/05
1994/06
1994/07
1994/08
1994/09
1994/10
1994/11
1994/12
1995/01
1995/02
1995/03
1995/04
1995/05
1995/06
1995/07
1995/08
1995/09
1995/10
1995/11
1995/12
1996/01
1996/02
1996/03
1996/04
1996/05
1996/06
1996/07
1996/08
1996/09
1996/10
1996/11
1996/12
1997/01
1997/02
1997/03
1997/04
1997/05
1997/06
1997/07
1997/08
1997/09
1997/10
1997/11
1997/12
1998/01
1998/02
1998/03
1998/04
1998/05
1998/06
1998/07
1998/08
1998/09
1998/10
1998/11
1998/12
1999/01
1999/02
1999/03
1999/04
1999/05
1999/06
1999/07
1999/08
1999/09
1999/10
1999/11
1999/12 -1,
2000/01
2000/02
2000/03
2000/04
2000/05
2000/06
2000/07
2000/08
2000/09
2000/10
2000/11
2000/12 -2,
2001/01
2001/02
2001/03
2001/04
2001/05
2001/06
2001/07
2001/08
2001/09
2001/10
2001/11
2001/12 -2,
2002/01
2002/02
2002/03
2002/04
2002/05
2002/06
2002/07
2002/08
2002/09
2002/10
2002/11
2002/12 -2,
2003/01
2003/02
2003/03
2003/04
2003/05
2003/06
2003/07
2003/08
2003/09
2003/10
2003/11
2003/12 -3,
2004/01 1,
2004/02
2004/03
2004/04
2004/05
2004/06
2004/07
2004/08
2004/09
2004/10
2004/11
2004/12 -5,
2005/01 1,
2005/02
2005/03
2005/04
2005/05
2005/06
2005/07
2005/08
2005/09
2005/10
2005/11
2005/12 -5,
2006/01 1,
2006/02
2006/03
2006/04 1,
2006/05
2006/06
2006/07 1,
2006/08
2006/09
2006/10 1,
2006/11 -1,
2006/12 -7,
2007/01 3,
2007/02
2007/03
2007/04 2,
2007/05 1,
2007/06
2007/07 1,
2007/08
2007/09
2007/10 1,
2007/11
2007/12 -9,
2008/01 4,
2008/02 1,
2008/03
2008/04 2,
2008/05 2,
2008/06
2008/07 1,
2008/08
2008/09
2008/10 1,
2008/11 -1,
2008/12 -13,
2009/01 2,
2009/02
2009/03
2009/04
2009/05 1,
2009/06
2009/07 1,
2009/08
2009/09
2009/10 2,
2009/11 -1,
2009/12 -14,
2010/01 5,
2010/02
2010/03
2010/04 2,
2010/05 2,
2010/06
2010/07 1,
2010/08
2010/09 -2,
2010/10 1,
2010/11 -4,
2010/12 -11,
2011/01 5,
2011/02 2,
2011/03
2011/04 2,
2011/05 2,
2011/06
2011/07 2,
2011/08
2011/09 -2,
2011/10 1,
2011/11 -4,
2011/12 -13,
2012/01 5,
2012/02 1,
2012/03 -1,
2012/04 2,
2012/05 2,
2012/06 -1,
2012/07 1,
2012/08 -1,
2012/09 -3,
2012/10 1,
2012/11 -4,
2012/12 -12,
2013/01 5,
2013/02 1,
2013/03 -1,
2013/04 2,
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
Sheet2
公共财政收入累计同比 工业增加值累计同比 CPI
2012/01
2012/02
2012/03
2012/04
2012/05
2012/06
2012/07
2012/08
2012/09
2012/10
2012/11
2012/12
2013/01
2013/02
2013/03
2013/04
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
公共财政收入累计同比
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
工业增加值累计同比
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CPI
过去3个季度流动性异常宽松
量和价反映了流动性异常宽松的状况。从社会融资作用机制来看，通过压制同业利率拉低社会融资成本下降构成社会融资总量膨胀的基础。换而言之，同业利率上行推升社会融资成本将形成社会融资总量放缓的主要压力。边际上看，下半年外汇管制、CPI上行构成银行体系流动性宽松的反制因素，社会融资膨胀累积的金融风险也会得到进一步重视，下半年流动性收缩会是基本趋势。
Chart1
38889 -3351
38871 3471
39459 19046
40413 10180
61634 22745
17470 7833
季度社融
同比多增
Sheet1
Wind资讯
指标名称 社会融资总量:当月值 银行间债券质押式回购:加权平均利率:当月值
频率 月 月
2002/01
2002/02 季度社融 同比多增
2002/03 3, 2012/03 38889 -3351
2002/04 1, 2012/06 38871 3471
2002/05 1, 2012/09 39459 19046
2002/06 2, 2012/12 40413 10180
2002/07 2013/03 61634 22745
2002/08 1, 2013/04 17470 7833
2002/09 3,
2002/10
2002/11 1,
2002/12 3,
2003/01 3,
2003/02
2003/03 4,
2003/04 2,
2003/05 2,
2003/06 5,
2003/07 1,
2003/08 3,
2003/09 4,
2003/10 1,
2003/11 1,
2003/12 2,
2004/01 2,
2004/02
2004/03 6,
2004/04 2,
2004/05 2,
2004/06 3,
2004/07
2004/08 1,
2004/09 2,
2004/10
2004/11 1,
2004/12 3,
2005/01 3,
2005/02
2005/03 4,
2005/04 1,
2005/05 1,
2005/06 4,
2005/07
2005/08 2,
2005/09 6,
2005/10
2005/11 2,
2005/12 2,
2006/01 6,
2006/02 1,
2006/03 7,
2006/04 3,
2006/05 3,
2006/06 3,
2006/07 2,
2006/08 3,
2006/09 3,
2006/10
2006/11 2,
2006/12 3,
2007/01 6,
2007/02 3,
2007/03 6,
2007/04 6,
2007/05 3,
2007/06 7,
2007/07 3,
2007/08 6,
2007/09 5,
2007/10 3,
2007/11 3,
2007/12 4,
2008/01 10,
2008/02 4,
2008/03 6,
2008/04 7,
2008/05 5,
2008/06 5,
2008/07 4,
2008/08 4,
2008/09 5,
2008/10 1,
2008/11 4,
2008/12 8,
2009/01 13,
2009/02 11,
2009/03 22,
2009/04 5,
2009/05 14,
2009/06 21,
2009/07 7,
2009/08 7,
2009/09 11,
2009/10 5,
2009/11 9,
2009/12 8,
2010/01 20,
2010/02 10,
2010/03 13,
2010/04 14,
2010/05 10,
2010/06 10,
2010/07 7,
2010/08 10,
2010/09 11,
2010/10 8,
2010/11 10,
2010/12 10,
2011/01 17,
2011/02 6,
2011/03 18, 42,
2011/04 13,
2011/05 10,
2011/06 10, 35,
2011/07 5,
2011/08 10,
2011/09 4, 20,
2011/10 7,
2011/11 9,
2011/12 12, 30,
2012/01 9,
2012/02 10,
2012/03 18, 38, ()
2012/04 9,
2012/05 11,
2012/06 17, 38,
2012/07 10,
2012/08 12,
2012/09 16, 39,
2012/10 12,
2012/11 11,
2012/12 16, 40,
2013/01 25,
2013/02 10,
2013/03 25, 61,
2013/04 17, 17,
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
Sheet1
季度社融
同比多增
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart1
质押回购利率
超储率
Sheet1
Wind资讯
指标名称 社会融资总量:当月值 银行间债券质押式回购:加权平均利率:当月值
频率 月 月
2002/01
2002/02 季度社融 同比多增
2002/03 3, 2012/03 38889 -3351
2002/04 1, 2012/06 38871 3471
2002/05 1, 2012/09 39459 19046
2002/06 2, 2012/12 40413 10180
2002/07 2013/03 61634 22745
2002/08 1, 2013/04 17470 7833
2002/09 3,
2002/10
2002/11 1,
2002/12 3,
2003/01 3,
2003/02
2003/03 4,
2003/04 2,
2003/05 2,
2003/06 5,
2003/07 1,
2003/08 3,
2003/09 4,
2003/10 1,
2003/11 1,
2003/12 2,
2004/01 2,
2004/02
2004/03 6, 质押回购利率 超储率
2004/04 2, 2012/01
2004/05 2, 2012/02
2004/06 3, 2012/03
2004/07 2012/04
2004/08 1, 2012/05
2004/09 2, 2012/06
2004/10 2012/07
2004/11 1, 2012/08
2004/12 3, 2012/09
2005/01 3, 2012/10
2005/02 2012/11
2005/03 4, 2012/12
2005/04 1, 2013/01
2005/05 1, 2013/02
2005/06 4, 2013/03
2005/07 2013/04
2005/08 2,
2005/09 6,
2005/10
2005/11 2,
2005/12 2,
2006/01 6,
2006/02 1,
2006/03 7,
2006/04 3,
2006/05 3,
2006/06 3,
2006/07 2,
2006/08 3,
2006/09 3,
2006/10
2006/11 2,
2006/12 3,
2007/01 6,
2007/02 3,
2007/03 6,
2007/04 6,
2007/05 3,
2007/06 7,
2007/07 3,
2007/08 6,
2007/09 5,
2007/10 3,
2007/11 3,
2007/12 4,
2008/01 10,
2008/02 4,
2008/03 6,
2008/04 7,
2008/05 5,
2008/06 5,
2008/07 4,
2008/08 4,
2008/09 5,
2008/10 1,
2008/11 4,
2008/12 8,
2009/01 13,
2009/02 11,
2009/03 22,
2009/04 5,
2009/05 14,
2009/06 21,
2009/07 7,
2009/08 7,
2009/09 11,
2009/10 5,
2009/11 9,
2009/12 8,
2010/01 20,
2010/02 10,
2010/03 13,
2010/04 14,
2010/05 10,
2010/06 10,
2010/07 7,
2010/08 10,
2010/09 11,
2010/10 8,
2010/11 10,
2010/12 10,
2011/01 17,
2011/02 6,
2011/03 18, 42,
2011/04 13,
2011/05 10,
2011/06 10, 35,
2011/07 5,
2011/08 10,
2011/09 4, 20,
2011/10 7,
2011/11 9,
2011/12 12, 30,
2012/01 9,
2012/02 10,
2012/03 18, 38, ()
2012/04 9,
2012/05 11,
2012/06 17, 38,
2012/07 10,
2012/08 12,
2012/09 16, 39,
2012/10 12,
2012/11 11,
2012/12 16, 40,
2013/01 25,
2013/02 10,
2013/03 25, 61,
2013/04 17, 17,
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
Sheet1
季度社融
同比多增
Sheet2
质押回购利率
超储率
Sheet3
社会融资总量膨胀带来利息负担
计息社会融资总量4月底达到96万亿，全年必定突破百亿大关。2012年上市银行贷款利率%，债券利率更低一些，影子银行的利率在8%-10%；以7%利率计利息支出达到万亿，占实际%；以2013年同比多增3万亿计，利率不变，以%GDP增速计，利息支出/GDP达到%；利息支出占新增计息社融%。
Chart2
计息社会融资总量
年度社会融资总量
时期 社会融资规模 其中：
人民币贷款 外币贷款（折合人民币） 委托 信托 未贴现的银行承兑汇票 企业债券 非金融企业境内股票融资
贷款 贷款
2002年 20112 18475 731 175 —— -695 367 628 19506
2003年 34113 27652 2285 601 —— 2010 499 559 33005
2004年 28629 22673 1381 3118 —— -290 467 673 24904
2005年 30008 23544 1415 1961 —— 24 2010 339 27332
2006年 42696 31523 1459 2695 825 1500 2310 1536 38328
2007年 59663 36323 3864 3371 1702 6701 2284 4333 53505
2008年 69802 49041 1947 4262 3144 1064 5523 3324 60899
2009年 139104 95942 9265 6780 4364 4606 12367 3350 125530
2010年 140191 79451 4855 8748 3865 23346 11063 5786 124501
2011年 128286 74715 5712 12962 2034 10271 13658 4377 108733
2012年 157600 82000 9163 12800 12900 10500 22500 2508 126671
2002年 100 ——
2003年 100 ——
2004年 100 —— -1
2005年 100 ——
2006年 100
2007年 100
2008年 100
2009年 100 69
2010年 100
2011年 100 8
1
月度社会融资总量
时期 社会融资规模 其中：
人民币贷款 外币贷款（折合人民币） 委托 信托 未贴现的银行承兑汇票 企业债券 非金融企业境内股票融资
贷款 贷款
-472 240 -11 -12 —— -755 0 40
289 530 92 16 —— -402 0 27
3136 2554 65 -3 —— 315 0 173
1151 937 54 119 —— 51 10 -56
1774 1110 73 74 —— 426 10 50
2621 2929 88 18 —— -589 78 55
813 620 33 45 —— 36 10 34
1585 1736 -15 -14 —— -233 23 48
3507 2885 88 -23 —— 296 58 162
795 722 16 -27 —— -61 87 27
1805 1539 42 -16 —— 107 60 34
3109 2673 205 0 —— 113 30 34
3386 3266 106 37 —— -113 25 29
998 1091 53 18 —— -277 56 20
4041 3725 271 23 —— -41 0 26
2622 1945 227 68 —— 280 12 47
2971 2534 265 2 —— 121 5 8
5842 5250 299 176 —— 13 16 40
1344 1062 103 22 —— -34 58 92
3321 2808 247 100 —— -5 55 73
4040 3035 400 78 —— 432 14 34
1218 616 148 -10 —— 378 15 36
1832 1025 202 66 —— 355 34 110
2498 1295 -37 21 —— 902 210 44
2114 2540 180 133 —— -851 4 70
438 2085 287 138 —— -2174 45 20
6557 3726 313 98 —— 2316 10 45
2731 1995 171 99 —— 331 19 70
2443 1132 151 1316 —— -263 23 42
3229 2821 209 144 —— -119 17 103
590 -19 -65 99 —— 329 4 194
1501 1157 50 162 —— -3 27 59
2981 2502 16 115 —— 134 130 25
483 256 -105 98 —— 105 70 16
1977 1495 175 358 —— -151 37 5
3586 2983 1 357 —— 58 82 23
3620 2810 727 187 —— -190 20 16
824 959 -6 53 —— -251 0 29
4189 3607 172 277 —— 69 0 6
1999 1420 91 200 —— 177 47 10
1968 1089 206 109 —— 92 151 274
4723 4653 152 89 —— -323 85 5
629 -314 186 202 —— 172 330 0
2097 1897 -155 153 —— 50 90 0
6041 3453 -30 171 —— 2126 253 0
-974 264 287 215 —— -2141 347 0
2368 2251 -136 123 —— -208 265 0
2524 1454 -80 184 —— 450 422 0
6323 5674 114 345 31 -208 303 0
1737 1491 71 119 26 -221 204 0
7472 5402 159 204 38 1176 299 127
3325 3163 128 419 27 -752 271 0
3785 2094 108 257 87 886 289 6
3843 3655 17 129 75 -420 209 104
2254 1634 -65 194 98 100 116 114
3362 1900 353 201 68 253 153 357
3077 2201 14 228 94 415 -8 52
894 169 -12 155 107 128 237 44
2788 1935 233 254 68 -179 212 183
3837 2204 341 188 107 322 26 548
6908 5663 -208 211 124 913 -39 158
3083 4138 197 162 108 -1573 -80 65
6311 4417 211 100 65 1143 177 128
6103 4220 118 460 111 1006 -41 145
3824 2473 265 230 245 346 52 137
7042 4515 684 243 152 1025 309 20
3100 2314 316 331 126 -351 133 149
6961 3029 585 421 203 2113 263 256
5290 2835 647 270 -3 588 310 548
3688 1361 458 -250 434 398 213 992
3073 874 525 135 -169 -212 790 1017
4281 485 66 1058 307 1306 198 718
10859 8058 1235 564 -19 219 75 615
4731 2434 1532 93 22 -297 316 557
6391 2834 733 82 242 1582 427 367
7076 4690 149 537 660 279 333 317
5678 3185 209 423 261 1110 2 365
5976 3324 97 447 95 1713 0 185
4890 3818 -43 373 594 -723 572 188
4575 2715 -204 326 323 648 352 290
5659 3745 -171 648 445 206 616 50
1288 1819 -742 158 451 -1469 948 7
4517 4775 -534 355 -143 -717 573 69
8164 7645 -314 255 214 -1486 1309 315
13990 16177 -582 262 -346 -2232 507 14
11131 10715 -288 347 38 -305 447 48
22011 18920 291 407 -137 972 1240 119
5452 5918 478 339 75 -3247 1557 137
14959 6669 1054 619 292 5035 876 238
21067 15304 2542 678 297 613 1238 190
7388 3691 752 502 572 295 587 788
7650 4104 1315 776 482 -103 634 234
11871 5167 1208 1125 869 1310 1678 299
5985 2530 1112 708 218 217 723 302
9501 2948 1131 670 1294 1178 1909 168
8100 3800 252 347 710 874 973 815
20550 13934 641 857 265 3449 664 519
10877 6999 663 96 496 1425 688 366
13830 5107 662 567 1377 4208 1324 365
14919 7740 349 635 2039 2309 1192 432
10805 6493 -112 623 762 1213 1356 253
10196 6027 -18 421 1077 1105 872 468
7202 5327 -378 706 231 900 -69 262
10646 5446 166 521 -761 3381 1208 419
11224 6004 918 626 -713 1679 1883 543
8608 5877 346 1027 -297 306 629 483
10554 5689 526 1121 -324 1796 719 722
10780 4807 1090 1549 -288 1576 594 954
17560 10263 862 1272 -98 3157 1012 731
6468 5377 347 419 141 -1176 877 270
18212 6794 572 1513 47 5631 2682 557
13673 7430 492 1407 501 2332 761 448
10854 5516 842 1216 180 1695 721 351
10873 6339 245 1202 141 1630 536 320
5393 4916 9 1232 -28 -1726 422 252
10741 5484 376 1409 176 1652 898 350
4279 4693 1025 1008 -223 -3361 520 236
7908 5868 415 518 90 -1186 1639 244
9581 5629 49 595 716 -227 2077 268
12744 6406 478 1173 389 1851 1514 350
-7806 9754 7381 -148 1646 247 -214 442 81 -2990
3963 10431 7107 526 394 522 -284 1544 229 677
492 18704 10114 950 770 1018 2821 1974 565 8273
-4036 9637 6818 96 1015 37 279 887 190 -9067
578 11432 7932 302 215 557 380 1441 184 1795
6929 17802 9198 1040 789 988 3113 1982 246 6370
5129 10522 5401 70 1279 384 218 2486 316 -7280
1666 12407 7039 743 1046 1180 -844 2584 208 1885
12221 16500 6232 1764 1449 2024 2163 2278 158 4093
4992 12900 5052 1290 941 1445 791 2992 88 -3600
1819 11400 5229 1048 1218 1995 -496 1817 107 -1500
16111 4497 1482 2038 2503 2573 2073 136 4711
25400 10700 1793 2061 2054 5812 2201 244
10700 6200 1149 1426 1816 -1838 1427 165
25500 10700 1511 1748 4360 2730 3892 208
17500 7929 847 1926 1953 2209 1900 274
79100 35529 5300 7161 10183 8913 9420 891
1 353,
61600 27600 4453 5235 8230 6704 7520 617
1819 -400 999 623 1279 -269 -260 -161
25500 10700 1511 1748 4360 2730 3892 208
22711 2998 3125 2425 6443 4381 3560 -258
6796 586 561 978 3342 -91 1918 -357
-7806 -2882 -1010 374 345 -3371 -570 -650
3963 1730 179 -25 381 892 667 -41
492 3320 378 -743 971 -2810 -708 8
月度
增量 计息社会融资总量
2001 112314 950 2001
2002 20112 -695 628 2002
2003 34113 2010 559 2003
2004 28629 -290 673 2004
2005 30008 24 339 2005
2006 42696 1500 1536 2006
2007 59663 6701 4333 2007
2008 69802 1064 3324 2008
2009 139104 4606 3350 2009
2010 140191 23346 5786 2010
2011 128286 10271 4377 2011
2012 157600 10500 2508 2012
201304 79100 8913 891 201304
月度
计息社会融资总量
Sheet3
时期 社会融资规模 其中：
人民币贷款 外币贷款（折合人民币） 委托贷款 信托贷款 未贴现的银行承兑汇票 企业债券 非金融企业境内股票融资
2012/1 9754 7381 -148 1646 247 -214 442 81
2012/2 10431 7107 526 394 522 -284 1544 229 3242 916
2012/3 18704 10114 950 770 1018 2821 1974 565
2012/4 9637 6818 96 1015 37 279 887 190
2012/5 11432 7932 302 215 557 380 1441 184
2012/6 17802 9198 1040 789 988 3113 1982 246
2012/7 10522 5401 70 1279 384 218 2486 316
2012/8 12407 7039 743 1046 1180 -844 2584 208
2012/9 16500 6232 1764 1449 2024 2163 2278 158
2012/10 12900 5052 1290 941 1445 791 2992 88
2012/11 11400 5229 1048 1218 1995 -496 1817 107
2012/12 16111 4497 1482 2038 2503 2573 2073 136
2013/1 25400 10700 1793 2061 2054 5812 2201 244
2013/2 10700 6200 1149 1426 1816 -1838 1427 165
2013/3 25500 10700 1511 1748 4360 2730 3892 208
2013/4 17500 7929 847 1926 1953 2209 1900 274
同比多增
2013/1 15646 3319 1941 415 1807 6026 1759 163
2013/2 269 -907 623 1032 1294 -1554 -117 -64
2013/3 6796 586 561 978 3342 -91 1918 -357
2013/4 7833 1111 751 911 1916 1930 1013 84 36%
累计同比多增
2013/1 15646 3319 1941 415 1807 6026 1759 163
2013/2 15915 2412 2564 1447 3101 4472 1642 99
2013/3 22711 2998 3125 2425 6443 4381 3560 -258
2013/4 30544 4109 3876 3336 8359 6311 4573 -174
结构
2012/1 % % % % % % % %
2012/2 % % % % % % % %
2012/3 % % % % % % % %
2012/4 % % % % % % % %
2012/5 % % % % % % % %
2012/6 % % % % % % % %
2012/7 % % % % % % % %
2012/8 % % % % % % % %
2012/9 % % % % % % % %
2012/10 % % % % % % % %
2012/11 % % % % % % % %
2012/12 % % % % % % % %
2013/1 % % % % % % % %
2013/2 % % % % % % % %
2013/3 % % % % % % % %
2013/4 % % % % % % % %
2012A % % % % % % % %
-04 % % % % % % % %
盯住央行流动性管理
Shibor利率对国库定存利率影响大
Shibor对国债利率影响远低于央票利率
Shibor同央票间的利率传导不通畅
货币市场通过流动性成本和信贷规模限制途径影响贷款利率
货币市场较债券市场对贷款利率影响大
货币市场
央票是国债利率的第一大影响因素
债券市场通过机会成本影响贷款利率
债券市场
贷款利率
资产再平衡提供交易机会
银行板块配置偏低的再平衡间或催生阶段性交易机会：时间上，阶段性经济数据公布或提升市场对经济增长的担忧；近期银行成交活跃度高于去年同期，配置比例应高于去年同期。
流动性主导阶段，看好弹性较高的平安、兴业、招商、民生。
Chart1
3
3
3
3
创业板
沪深300
创业板与沪深
市净率(整体法)
[财务数据匹配规则] 上年年报
[剔除规则] 不调整 市净率(整体法)
[财务数据匹配规则] 上年年报
[剔除规则] 不调整
时间 创业板 沪深300
1/6/12
1/13/12
1/20/12
2/3/12
2/10/12
2/17/12
2/24/12 3
3/2/12
3/9/12
3/16/12
3/23/12
3/30/12
4/6/12
4/13/12
4/20/12
4/27/12
5/4/12
5/11/12 3
5/18/12
5/25/12
6/1/12
6/8/12
6/15/12
6/21/12
6/29/12
7/6/12
7/13/12
7/20/12
7/27/12
8/3/12
8/10/12
8/17/12
8/24/12
8/31/12
9/7/12
9/14/12
9/21/12
9/28/12
10/12/12
10/19/12
10/26/12
11/2/12 3
11/9/12
11/16/12
11/23/12
11/30/12
12/7/12
12/14/12
12/21/12
12/28/12
1/4/13
1/11/13
1/18/13
1/25/13
2/1/13
2/8/13
2/22/13
3/1/13
3/8/13
3/15/13 3
3/22/13
3/29/13
4/3/13
4/12/13
4/19/13
4/26/13
5/3/13
5/10/13
5/17/13
5/24/13
5/30/13
数据来源：Wind资讯
创业板与沪深
创业板
沪深300
Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart2
0
上证成交
银行成交占比
银行涨幅
成交.xls
成交金额(合计)
[单位] 亿元 成交金额(合计)
[单位] 亿元
时间 上证A股 银行业
1/4/12
1/5/12
1/6/12 393
1/9/12
1/10/12
1/11/12
1/12/12
1/13/12
1/16/12
1/17/12
1/18/12
1/19/12
1/20/12
1/30/12
1/31/12
2/1/12
2/2/12
2/3/12
2/6/12
2/7/12
2/8/12
2/9/12
2/10/12
2/13/12
2/14/12
2/15/12
2/16/12
2/17/12
2/20/12
2/21/12
2/22/12
2/23/12
2/24/12
2/27/12
2/28/12
2/29/12
3/1/12
3/2/12
3/5/12
3/6/12
3/7/12
3/8/12
3/9/12
3/12/12
3/13/12
3/14/12
3/15/12
3/16/12
3/19/12
3/20/12
3/21/12
3/22/12
3/23/12
3/26/12
3/27/12
3/28/12 780
3/29/12
3/30/12
4/5/12
4/6/12
4/9/12
4/10/12
4/11/12
4/12/12
4/13/12
4/16/12
4/17/12
4/18/12
4/19/12
4/20/12
4/23/12
4/24/12
4/25/12
4/26/12
4/27/12
5/2/12
5/3/12
5/4/12
5/7/12
5/8/12
5/9/12
5/10/12
5/11/12
5/14/12
5/15/12
5/16/12
5/17/12
5/18/12
5/21/12
5/22/12
5/23/12
5/24/12
5/25/12
5/28/12
5/29/12
5/30/12 5/30/12 % %
5/31/12 上证成交 银行成交占比 银行涨幅
6/1/12 6/1/12 % %
6/4/12 6/4/12 % % %
6/5/12 6/5/12 % %
6/6/12 6/6/12 % %
6/7/12 6/7/12 % %
6/8/12 6/8/12 % %
6/11/12 6/11/12 % %
6/12/12 6/12/12 % %
6/13/12 6/13/12 % %
6/14/12 6/14/12 % %
6/15/12 6/15/12 % %
6/18/12 6/18/12 % %
6/19/12 6/19/12 % %
6/20/12 6/20/12 % %
6/21/12 6/21/12 % %
6/25/12 6/25/12 % %
6/26/12 6/26/12 % %
6/27/12 6/27/12 % %
6/28/12 6/28/12 % %
6/29/12 6/29/12 % %
7/2/12 7/2/12 % %
7/3/12 7/3/12 % %
7/4/12 7/4/12 % %
7/5/12 7/5/12 % %
7/6/12 7/6/12 % %
7/9/12 7/9/12 % %
7/10/12 7/10/12 % %
7/11/12 7/11/12 % %
7/12/12 7/12/12 % %
7/13/12 7/13/12 % %
7/16/12 7/16/12 % %
7/17/12 7/17/12 % %
7/18/12 7/18/12 % %
7/19/12 7/19/12 % %
7/20/12 7/20/12 % %
7/23/12 7/23/12 % %
7/24/12 7/24/12 % %
7/25/12 408 7/25/12 % %
7/26/12 7/26/12 % %
7/27/12 7/27/12 % %
7/30/12 7/30/12 % %
7/31/12 7/31/12 % %
8/1/12 8/1/12 % %
8/2/12 8/2/12 % %
8/3/12 8/3/12 % %
8/6/12 8/6/12 % %
8/7/12 8/7/12 % %
8/8/12 8/8/12 % %
8/9/12 8/9/12 % %
8/10/12 8/10/12 % %
8/13/12 8/13/12 % %
8/14/12 8/14/12 % %
8/15/12 8/15/12 % %
8/16/12 8/16/12 % %
8/17/12 8/17/12 % %
8/20/12 8/20/12 % %
8/21/12 8/21/12 % %
8/22/12 8/22/12 % %
8/23/12 8/23/12 % %
8/24/12 8/24/12 % %
8/27/12 8/27/12 % %
8/28/12 8/28/12 % %
8/29/12 8/29/12 % %
8/30/12 8/30/12 % %
8/31/12 8/31/12 % %
9/3/12 9/3/12 % %
9/4/12 475 9/4/12 % %
9/5/12 9/5/12 % %
9/6/12 9/6/12 % %
9/7/12 9/7/12 % %
9/10/12 9/10/12 % %
9/11/12 9/11/12 % %
9/12/12 9/12/12 % %
9/13/12 9/13/12 % %
9/14/12 9/14/12 % %
9/17/12 9/17/12 % %
9/18/12 9/18/12 % %
9/19/12 9/19/12 % %
9/20/12 9/20/12 % %
9/21/12 9/21/12 % %
9/24/12 9/24/12 % %
9/25/12 9/25/12 % %
9/26/12 9/26/12 % %
9/27/12 9/27/12 % %
9/28/12 9/28/12 % %
10/8/12 10/8/12 % %
10/9/12 10/9/12 % %
10/10/12 10/10/12 % %
10/11/12 10/11/12 % %
10/12/12 10/12/12 % %
10/15/12 10/15/12 % %
10/16/12 10/16/12 % %
10/17/12 10/17/12 % %
10/18/12 10/18/12 % %
10/19/12 10/19/12 % %
10/22/12 10/22/12 % %
10/23/12 10/23/12 % %
10/24/12 10/24/12 % %
10/25/12 10/25/12 % %
10/26/12 10/26/12 % %
10/29/12 10/29/12 % %
10/30/12 10/30/12 % %
10/31/12 10/31/12 % %
11/1/12 11/1/12 % %
11/2/12 11/2/12 % %
11/5/12 11/5/12 % %
11/6/12 11/6/12 % %
11/7/12 11/7/12 % %
11/8/12 11/8/12 % %
11/9/12 11/9/12 % %
11/12/12 11/12/12 % %
11/13/12 11/13/12 % %
11/14/12 11/14/12 % %
11/15/12 11/15/12 % %
11/16/12 11/16/12 % %
11/19/12 11/19/12 % %
11/20/12 11/20/12 % %
11/21/12 11/21/12 % %
11/22/12 11/22/12 % %
11/23/12 11/23/12 % %
11/26/12 11/26/12 % %
11/27/12 11/27/12 % %
11/28/12 11/28/12 % %
11/29/12 11/29/12 % %
11/30/12 11/30/12 % %
12/3/12 12/3/12 % %
12/4/12 12/4/12 % %
12/5/12 12/5/12 % %
12/6/12 12/6/12 % %
12/7/12 12/7/12 % %
12/10/12 12/10/12 % %
12/11/12 12/11/12 % %
12/12/12 12/12/12 % %
12/13/12 12/13/12 % %
12/14/12 12/14/12 % %
12/17/12 12/17/12 % %
12/18/12 12/18/12 % %
12/19/12 12/19/12 % %
12/20/12 12/20/12 % %
12/21/12 12/21/12 % %
12/24/12 12/24/12 % %
12/25/12 12/25/12 % %
12/26/12 12/26/12 % %
12/27/12 12/27/12 % %
12/28/12 12/28/12 % %
12/31/12 12/31/12 % %
1/4/13 1/4/13 % %
1/7/13 1/7/13 % %
1/8/13 1/8/13 % %
1/9/13 1/9/13 % %
1/10/13 1/10/13 % %
1/11/13 1/11/13 % %
1/14/13 1/14/13 % %
1/15/13 1/15/13 % %
1/16/13 1/16/13 % %
1/17/13 1/17/13 % %
1/18/13 1/18/13 % %
1/21/13 1/21/13 % %
1/22/13 1/22/13 % %
1/23/13 1/23/13 % %
1/24/13 1/24/13 % %
1/25/13 1/25/13 % %
1/28/13 1/28/13 % %
1/29/13 1/29/13 % %
1/30/13 1/30/13 % %
1/31/13 1/31/13 % %
2/1/13 2/1/13 % %
2/4/13 2/4/13 % %
2/5/13 2/5/13 % %
2/6/13 2/6/13 % %
2/7/13 2/7/13 % %
2/8/13 2/8/13 % %
2/18/13 2/18/13 % %
2/19/13 2/19/13 % %
2/20/13 2/20/13 % %
2/21/13 2/21/13 % %
2/22/13 2/22/13 % %
2/25/13 2/25/13 % %
2/26/13 2/26/13 % %
2/27/13 2/27/13 % %
2/28/13 2/28/13 % %
3/1/13 3/1/13 % %
3/4/13 166 3/4/13 % %
3/5/13 3/5/13 % %
3/6/13 3/6/13 % %
3/7/13 3/7/13 % %
3/8/13 3/8/13 % %
3/11/13 3/11/13 % %
3/12/13 3/12/13 % %
3/13/13 3/13/13 % %
3/14/13 3/14/13 % %
3/15/13 3/15/13 % %
3/18/13 3/18/13 % %
3/19/13 3/19/13 % %
3/20/13 3/20/13 % %
3/21/13 3/21/13 % %
3/22/13 3/22/13 % %
3/25/13 97 3/25/13 % %
3/26/13 124 3/26/13 % %
3/27/13 3/27/13 % %
3/28/13 3/28/13 % %
3/29/13 3/29/13 % %
4/1/13 4/1/13 % %
4/2/13 4/2/13 % %
4/3/13 4/3/13 % %
4/8/13 4/8/13 % %
4/9/13 4/9/13 % %
4/10/13 4/10/13 % %
4/11/13 4/11/13 % %
4/12/13 4/12/13 % %
4/15/13 4/15/13 % %
4/16/13 4/16/13 % %
4/17/13 4/17/13 % %
4/18/13 4/18/13 % %
4/19/13 4/19/13 % %
4/22/13 4/22/13 % %
4/23/13 4/23/13 % %
4/24/13 4/24/13 % %
4/25/13 4/25/13 % %
4/26/13 61 4/26/13 % %
5/2/13 5/2/13 % %
5/3/13 5/3/13 % %
5/6/13 5/6/13 % %
5/7/13 5/7/13 % %
5/8/13 5/8/13 % %
5/9/13 5/9/13 % %
5/10/13 5/10/13 % %
5/13/13 5/13/13 % %
5/14/13 5/14/13 % %
5/15/13 5/15/13 % %
5/16/13 5/16/13 % %
5/17/13 5/17/13 % %
5/20/13 5/20/13 % %
5/21/13 5/21/13 % %
5/22/13 5/22/13 % %
5/23/13 5/23/13 % %
5/24/13 5/24/13 % %
5/27/13 5/27/13 % %
5/28/13 5/28/13 % %
5/29/13 5/29/13 % %
5/30/13 5/30/13 % %
数据来源：Wind资讯
成交.xls
上证成交
银行成交占比
银行涨幅
Sheet2
Sheet3
结论及投资建议
短期看，经济弱复苏下银行基本面难以超预期；对同业监管、利率市场化推进的担忧制约估值；财政收入放缓，流动性宽松为保增长基本要件；成长股不断上升的估值压力，银行板块配置偏低的再平衡间或催生阶段性交易机会，看好弹性较高的平安、招商。
全年看，经济增长与控风险的政策所要求的平衡度高，外汇管制、CPI上行构成流动性宽松的反制因素，膨胀的信用规模难以持续高增长；资产压力关注度会陆续提高，看好大型银行的防御表现。
谢谢！欢迎交流
