$ 十大沪股通首选A股
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬üü≾␃䗮㋏߫ਞϞ㆛ 䆕ࠌⷨ おᥬ䞥A㙵ԄؐᏂ⿔㔎ᗻ ਞ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ 㙵ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ㄪ ⬹ ≾␃䗮ࡽЁ䌘ᴀᏖഎ䰙࣪DŽ䖥कԭᑈˈA㙵ྟ㒜≵᳝䍄ߎ䳛㤵ϟ䎠↯䭓䴦 ⱘḐሔˈᇸ݊ҹⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵㸼⦄ᏂDŽⳌᇍѢ2000ᑈ߱ˈܼ䚼A㙵ᏖⲜ ⬉䆱˖010-60838226 ⥛ϟ䎠79%Ϟˈ䆕50ᏖⲜ⥛ϟ䎠89%Ԅˈؐⱘϟ䎠ᅠܼᢉ⍜њⲜ߽䭓DŽϧ䚂ӊ˖mcq@ A㙵Ⲭ㪱ㅍ㙵Ԅؐᣕ㓁ϟ䎠ˈҢḍᴀϞᰃA㙵㔎УӋؐᡩ䌘⧚ᗉˈϮ㒽乬SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120004 㡃དˈेՓԄؐԢгϡফᡩ䌘㗙䴦ⴤDŽⳌᇍѢA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ˈ佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙ਞЎأདѢᏖؐǃԢԄؐǃ催㙵ᙃ⥛ⱘӋؐ㙵Ϩˈᣕ㙵ᯊ䯈䭓DŽϔᮍ䴶ˈᴼᯩ 䖭✊ϢЁ䌘ᴀᏖഎࠊᑺᗻ㋴Ⳍ݇བˈIPO䳔∖ǃಲ䌁ߚ㑶ᇥㄝㄝDŽԚϔᮍ䴶ᡩˈ䌘㗙㒧ᵘ༅㸵гᰃ䗴៤Ⲭ㪱ㅍ㙵᮴⊩Ԅؐ㑴أⱘ䞡㽕ॳ⬉䆱˖010-60836755 DŽA㙵ϾҎᡩ䌘㗙Ѹᯧ䞣ऴ↨䖥81%ˈ㗠佭␃ҹᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙ऴЏᇐˈѸ䚂ӊ˖xiny@ ᯧऴ↨61%ᇸˈ݊ᰃҹ៤❳Ꮦഎⱘ⍋ᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙ЎЏᇐDŽ≾␃䗮ⱘᬒᓔSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512060002 ᳝ࡽѢЁ䌘ᴀᏖഎ䰙࣪ⳈˈᬍA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙㒧ᵘҢˈ䭓䖰ⱘ㾦ᑺᴹⳟ᳝ࡽѢᷥゟA㙵Ӌؐᡩ䌘⧚ᗉⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵ⱘԄؐ㑴أᴎࠊDŽ ᓴ㕸 ᘏԧᕅડ˖ⷁᳳ߽དA㙵ˈЁ䭓ᳳᕅડأЁᗻDŽϔᮍ䴶ˈℸᬒᓔⱘA⬉䆱˖010-60838299 㙵㙵⼼∴ҹ佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙୰དⱘӋؐ㪱ㅍ㙵H㙵⿔㔎⍜䌍㉏ЎЏˈ䫊㸠ǃ䚂ӊ˖zhangqun@ 㛑⑤ǃ䌘ᴀ䋻⠽ǃॳᴤ᭭ǃֱ䰽Ϣ䖤䕧⌕䗮Ꮦؐऴ↨㑺Ў73%ˈ݊ЎएSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511090003 㥃Ϣ亳ક佂᭭㸠Ϯˈϸ㗙ऴ↨ড়䅵%DŽϨ䖭ѯᴗ䞡ᵓഫⱘA㙵Ԅؐᰒ㨫ԢѢH㙵Ԅؐ30%-50%DŽℸˈⷁЁᳳᴹⳟˈԄؐᬊᬯ᳝ࡽѢᦤᤃA߬ᮍ 㙵ᴗ䞡㉏ᵓഫᇍˈA㙵أ߽དDŽԚᰃϔᮍ䴶Aˈ㙵㙵ᙃ⥛᱂䘡ԢѢH㙵ˈ⬉䆱˖010-60836736 ՟བ䫊㸠ǃ㛑⑤ǃ䖤䕧ǃֱ䰽A㙵㙵ᙃ⥛ߚ߿Ў%ǃ%ǃ%Ϣ䚂ӊ˖fangliu@ %ˈH㙵㙵ᙃ⥛ߚ߿Ў%ǃ%ǃ%Ϣ%DŽ䖭ϡ߽Ѣᓩ䚼SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010513080004 ߚأད㦋পᅮᬊⲞⱘ䭓㒓ᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙ˈ՟བֱ䰽Ϣݏ㗕䞥ㄝDŽℸЁ䭓 ᳳ≾␃䗮ⱘᓔ䗮ᇍѢA㙵ᘏԧᕅડأЁᗻˈⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵㛑৺ফࠄᣕ㓁ࡼҢḍᴀϞ䖬䳔㽕ⳟ䌘ᴀᏖഎࠊᑺᗻⱘব䴽ǃ㒣⌢乘ᳳⱘᬍㄝㄝDŽҹঞⳌ݇㸠ϮߚᵤᏜ˄䆺㒚㕆ৡ㾕ৢ义 ˅ 㸠Ϯߚᵤ˖Ӵ㒳㪱ㅍ㙵ԄؐӬˈ⍜䌍啭༈⿔㔎ᗻDŽҢԄؐӬ 㾦ᑺⳟᇍˈ↨ᬒᓔⱘA㙵ϢH㙵Aˈ㙵ԄؐӬЏ㽕䲚Ё䫊㸠ǃ≑䔺ǃⳌ݇ⷨお ݀⫼џϮǃѸ䖤ǃ亳ક佂᭭ㄝ㸠ϮDŽҢ⿔㔎ᗻ㾦ᑺⳟˈA㙵䳊ଂǃ亳ક佂᭭ǃ㗤⫼⍜䌍ક˄≑䔺ǃᆊ⬉ǃ˅⍜䌍᳡ࡵ˄ᮙ␌ǃ˅ॳᴤ᭭ǃ䌘ᴀકǃ1ˊA㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ᖿ—“≾␃䗮”ᕅડ⚍݀⫼џϮǃए㥃ㄝ㸠Ϯⱘ᭄䞣ᰒ㨫䍙䖛H㙵Ўˈᡩ䌘㗙ᦤկЎЄᆠⱘᡩ䆘˖ᦤछ㪱ㅍԄؐˈࡴ䗳亢Ḑ䕀ᤶ䌘ᷛⱘDŽℸˈ䖭ѯ㸠ϮЁˈ㗗㰥ࠄ␃㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ᇍ催ROEঞ〇ع៤䭓 ...................................... 2014-04-11 ⱘᡩ䌘أདˈᇍѢ␃㙵ᡩ䌘㗙㗠㿔ˈ亳ક佂᭭ǃए㥃ǃ݀⫼џϮǃᆊ⬉ǃ2Aˊ㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ᖿ20140729—㒣⌢Ь⫼䔺ㄝ㸠Ϯⱘᷛⱘ⿔㔎ᗻ䕗Ўᰒ㨫DŽ དࡽ≾␃䗮㸠ᚙ .......... 2014-07-29 QFIIᣕҧߚᵤ˖أདЁᏖؐǃЁԢԄؐǃЁ催㙵ᙃⱘ㒽Ӭⱑ偀㙵DŽ⍋ ᡩ䌘㗙׳䘧≾㙵䗮䖯ܹA㙵ᏖഎҪˈӀⱘᡩ䌘дᛃأདӮᕅડࠄ⦄᳝ⱘ ᄬ䞣मᓜḐሔDŽḍৃᕫⱘQFII䞡ҧ㙵݀ᓔֵᙃҹঞ៥Ӏᇍ⍋ᴎᵘⱘ 䇗ⷨড作ˈৃҹথ⦄˖1˅㸠ϮϞˈ䌘أདЁ␌ࠊ䗴ϮǃֵᙃᡔᴃϮǃ⍜䌍ㄝᵓഫ˗2˅ԄؐϞˈأདЁԢԄؐⱘ㙵⼼ˈԚᑊϡĀϔߔߛāಲ䙓催Ԅؐ˗3˅㾘Ϟˈᣕ᳝ЁԢᏖؐⱘ㙵⼼᭄䞣أˈԚ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ҡᏖؐ㙵⼼Ё˗4˅㙵ᙃಲϞˈᑊϡᖙ✊أད催㙵ᙃⱘ㙵⼼ˈԚ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ЁҡӮܙߚ㗗㰥㙵ᙃ⥛䖭ϔ㋴˗5˅QFIIӮᇱ䆩фܹϔѯ㒽Ꮒ㙵ˈԚ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ҡЏ㽕䲚Ё㒽Ӭ㙵ЁDŽ ᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹˖≾␃䗮㸠ᚙϟⱘA㙵क䞥㙵DŽ㓐Ϟ᠔䗄ˈ≾␃䗮㸠ᚙϟⱘফⲞϾ㙵Џ㽕䲚Ё亳ક佂᭭ǃ⬉ǃѸ䖤ǃ䞥㵡ǃഄѻǃ≑䔺ǃᆊ⬉ㄝأ㪱ㅍⱘ㸠ϮЁˈ㺙ࠊ䗴ǃݯᎹǃए㥃ㄝ乚ඳЁⱘ⿔㔎ક⾡г᳝ϔᅮⱘᓩDŽҢϸഄ㙵ӋӋᏂǃԄؐᏂǃ⿔㔎ᗻǃ㙵ᙃಲǃϮ㒽ᴀ䴶ǃᏖؐ㾘ㄝ݁Ͼ㓈ᑺߎথˈࡴ㗗㰥ᬓㄪǃ㸠ϮǃЏ乬ҹঞ㙵Ӌሖ䴶ⱘڀ࣪ࠖᑊˈܙߚখ㗗㸠ϮߚᵤᏜⱘ㤤ᛣ㾕៥ˈӀㄯ䗝ߎक䞥㙵DŽߚ߿ᰃ˖䴦ቯ⍋ᇨǃ䭓∳⬉ǃϞ≑䲚ಶǃ⾺䪕䏃ǃ䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄǃଚ䫊㸠ǃֱ߽ഄѻǃЁ࣫䔺ǃЁ㟾⬉ᄤǃЁᮙDŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 Ⳃᔩ ᭈԧᕅડ˖ⷁᳳ߽དˈԚЁ䭓ᳳᕅડأЁᗻ ........................................................................ 1 ≾␃䗮ࡽЁ䌘ᴀᏖഎ䰙࣪ˈᐂࡽᷥゟⲬ㪱ㅍԄؐ㑴أᴎࠊ ................................... 1 ᘏԧᕅડ˖ⷁᳳ߽དA㙵ˈЁ䭓ᳳᕅડأЁᗻ ................................................................... 3 㸠Ϯߚᵤ˖Ӵ㒳㪱ㅍ㙵ԄؐӬˈ⍜䌍啭༈⿔㔎ᗻ ................................................... 5 Ӵ㒳㪱ㅍ㙵ԄؐӬ ..................................................................................................... 5 A㙵ᷛⱘⳌᇍH㙵Єᆠˈ⍜䌍啭༈⿔㔎ᗻ ................................................................ 8 ᇏᡒQFII⍋ᡩ䌘㗙୰ⱘ≾㙵䗮ᷛⱘ .......................................................................... 8 ᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹˖≾␃䗮㸠ᚙϟⱘA㙵क䞥㙵 ......................................................................... 15 ᦦⳂᔩ 1˖कԭᑈҹᴹA㙵Ԅؐᣕ㓁ϟ䎠 ................................................................................... 1 2˖῾䰙↨䕗A㙵Ԅؐ໘ѢᵕԢ∈ᑇ ........................................................................ 1 3˖䚼ߚⲬ㪱ㅍᵓഫⲜ߽㛑དԚԄؐϟ䎠 ................................................................. 2 4˖Ⲭ㪱ㅍ㙵៤Ѹ⌏䎗ᑺ䖰ԢѢ߯Ϯᵓ ........................................................................ 2 5˖佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙أདӋؐ㙵 .............................................................................................. 2 6˖A㙵៤䭓ᣛ᭄ϢӋؐᣛ᭄㸼⦄Ⳍӓ ............................................................................ 2 7˖␃㙵Ⲭ㙵ⳌᇍᇣⲬ㙵㸼⦄䕗ད ................................................................................ 3 8˖␃㙵催㙵ᙃ㙵⼼㸼⦄Ⳍᇍ䕗ད ................................................................................... 3 9˖佭␃㙵Ꮦ᳜ᤶ⥛䖰ԢѢA㙵 ................................................................................... 3 10˖ℸᬒᓔⱘA㙵㙵⼼∴ҹ␃㙵ᡩ䌘㗙୰དⱘⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵ЎЏ .................................. 3 11˖ᴗ䞡䕗催ⱘᵓഫA㙵ⳌᇍѢH㙵ԄؐᐙᡬӋ ....................................................... 4 12˖A㙵㙵ᙃ⥛᱂䘡ԢѢH㙵 ........................................................................................ 4 13˖␃㙵ᬒᓔⱘ㙵⼼∴ⱘᴎᵘϢA㙵↨䕗 ...................................................................... 5 14˖A㙵ᡩ䌘㗙୰དⱘ䚼ߚᵓഫⳌᇍѢ␃㙵᳝ᡬӋ ........................................................ 5 15˖A/H㙵ᡬ⑶Ӌᣛ᭄߯7ᑈᮄԢ ................................................................................. 6 16˖䖥ᳳAH㙵ᡬӋᐙᑺ䕗ᇣ ......................................................................................... 6 17˖ᇍ␃ᓔᬒⱘA㙵ԄؐӬЏ㽕䲚Ё䫊㸠ǃ≑䔺ǃ݀⫼џϮǃѸ䖤ǃ亳ક佂᭭ㄝ㪱ㅍ㸠Ϯ .................................................................................................................................. 6 18˖H㙵Ϣᇍ␃ᓔᬒA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ᭄䞣ⱘ㸠Ϯᇍ↨ ....................................................... 8 19˖Ң䞡ҧ㙵ᣕҧ᭄䞣ⱘ㸠ϮߚᏗⳟˈQFIIᇍЁ␌ࠊ䗴ϮֵᙃᡔᴃϮⱘأདᑺ䕗催 . 9 20˖Ң䞡ҧ㙵ᣕҧᏖؐⱘ㸠ϮߚᏗⳟˈQFIIᇍ⍜䌍ᵓഫЁ␌ࠊ䗴Ϯⱘأདᑺ䕗催 .... 9 21˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ .................................................................... 10 22˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ .................................................................... 10 23˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPBߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ .................................................................... 10 24˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPBߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ .................................................................... 10 25˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖؐߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ ..................................................................... 11 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 26˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖؐߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ ..................................................................... 11 27˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛ߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ ................................................................. 11 28˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛ߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ ................................................................. 11 29˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘROEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ ................................................................. 12 30˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘROEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ ................................................................. 12 31˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳ߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ ......................................................... 12 32˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳ߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ ......................................................... 12 33˖≾㙵䗮ḋᴀЁԢԄؐǃ催㙵ᙃⱘ㙵⼼ᵘ៤⸔ⱘফⲞ㙵⼼∴ ................................ 15 34˖≾㙵䗮ᡩ䌘ᷛⱘⱘㄯ䗝䘏䕥 ................................................................................... 16 㸼ḐⳂᔩ 㸼1˖A-H㙵ᡬ⑶Ӌ↨䕗....................................................................................................... 6 㸼2˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ὖ㾜˄ᣕҧᏖؐ1ғҹϞⱘ㙵⼼˅ ........................................................ 13 㸼3˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ὖ㾜˄ᣕҧᏖؐऴ⌕䗮Ꮦؐ2%ҹϞⱘ㙵⼼˅ ....................................... 14 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 ᭈԧᕅડ˖ⷁᳳ߽དˈԚЁ䭓ᳳᕅડأЁᗻ ≾␃䗮ࡽЁ䌘ᴀᏖഎ䰙࣪ˈᐂࡽᷥゟⲬ㪱ㅍԄؐ㑴أᴎࠊ 䖥कԭᑈҹᴹˈA㙵ྟ㒜≵᳝䍄ߎ䳛㤵ϟ䎠ⱘḐሔˈᇸ݊ҹⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵㸼⦄ᏂDŽⳌᇍѢ2000ᑈ߱ˈܼ䚼A㙵ᏖⲜ⥛ϟ䎠79%ˈϞ䆕50ᏖⲜ⥛ϟ䎠89%DŽҢ䰙↨䕗ᴹⳟˈA㙵Ԅؐг䖰ԢѢ݊ҪᆊDŽ㱑✊䚼ߚⲬ㪱ㅍ㸠ϮⲜ߽䋼䞣䕗དˈԚᰃⳂࠡⱘԄؐ↨2008ᑈ᳔Ԣ⚍䖬᳝᠔ϟ䰡՟ˈབ䫊㸠ǃᓎㄥǃ⊍࣪2008ᑈԢ⚍Ꮦޔ⥛ߚ߿㑺ЎסǃסϢסˈ㗠ⳂࠡҙЎסǃסϢסDŽԄؐᣕ㓁ϟ䎠ˈᅠܼᢉ⍜њⲜ߽䭓DŽ㗠ϨҢѸᯧ⌏䎗ᑺᴹⳟˈⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵ⱘᤶ⥛䖰䖰ԢѢ߯ϮᵓDŽ A㙵Ⲭ㪱ㅍ㙵Ԅؐᣕ㓁ϟ䎠ˈ䲒ҹ䍄ߎ乧ˈҢḍᴀϞᴹⳟ䖬ᰃA㙵㔎УӋؐᡩ䌘⧚ᗉDŽϮ㒽䋼䞣དˈԢԄؐⱘ㙵⼼ձ✊ϡফᡩ䌘㗙䴦ⴤDŽϔᮍ䴶ˈ䖭✊ϢЁ䌘ᴀᏖഎࠊᑺᗻ㋴Ⳍ݇ˈ՟བIPOǃಲ䌁ǃߚ㑶ࠊᑺㄝㄝDŽҢ⦄䞥ಲᇍ↨ᴹⳟ˄⦄䞥ߚ㑶=㵡䌘+ॄ㢅+㓁䌍-ߚ㑶-ಲ䌁˅ˈA㙵ⳌᇍѢ␃㙵IPO䳔∖ǃߚ㑶䕗Ԣǃಲ䌁ᵕᇥˈ䖛এ5ᑈ˄2009-2013ᑈ˅A㙵ᑈഛಲ-2013ғܗˈ㗠␃㙵ᑈഛಲ4530ғ␃ᏕˈℷᰃЎ䋳ⱘ⦄䞥ಲˈA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ФᛣमপⷁᳳӋḐ⊶ࡼᏺᴹⱘᡩ䌘ᬊⲞˈ㗠ϡ䞡㾚ϞᏖ݀ৌⱘ䭓ᳳಲDŽϔᮍ䴶ˈᡩ䌘㗙㒧ᵘ༅㸵гᰃӋؐᡩ䌘⧚ᗉ㔎༅ⱘ䞡㽕ॳПϔDŽA㙵ϾҎᡩ䌘㗙Ѹᯧ䞣ऴ↨䖥81%ˈ㗠佭␃߭ҹᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙ऴЏᇐˈѸᯧऴ↨61%ˈ݊Ё41%Ў⍋ᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙Ϩˈ䚼ߚᴹ㞾Ѣ៤❳Ꮦഎ㣅ˈ㕢ϸेऴ25%DŽ≾␃䗮ⱘᬒᓔ᳝ࡽѢЁ䌘ᴀᏖഎ䰙࣪ˈⳈᬍA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙㒧ᵘˈҢ䭓䖰ⱘ㾦ᑺᴹⳟ᳝ࡽѢᷥゟA㙵Ӌؐᡩ䌘⧚ᗉˈᐂࡽ䞡ᮄᓎゟⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵Ԅؐ㑴أᴎࠊDŽ 1˖कԭᑈҹᴹA㙵Ԅؐᣕ㓁ϟ䎠 2˖῾䰙↨䕗A㙵Ԅؐ໘ѢᵕԢ∈ᑇ ܼ䚼TTMPEA㙵ᏖⲜ⥛Ϟ䆕50ᏖⲜ⥛50 9045 40 8035 7030 25 6020 5015 10 405 0 3020100 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖BloombergˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 1 2000-012001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-01䘧⨐ᮃᣛ᭄ᷛ᱂500ᣛ᭄㒇ᮃ䖒ܟ䘧⨐ᮃ⌆50ӋĂ㣅ᆠᯊ100ᣛ᭄⊩CAC 40ᣛ᭄ᖋDAX 30ᣛ᭄㥋݄AEX ᣛ᭄⨲Ꮦഎᣛ᭄᮹㒣225ᣛ᭄䶽KOSPIᣛ᭄ᮄࡴവ⍋ኵᯊĂ佭␃ᘦ⫳ᣛ᭄Ϟ䆕㓐ᣛ≾⏅300
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 3˖䚼ߚⲬ㪱ㅍᵓഫⲜ߽㛑དԚԄؐϟ䎠 4˖Ⲭ㪱ㅍ㙵៤Ѹ⌏䎗ᑺ䖰ԢѢ߯Ϯᵓ Ꮦޔ⥛Ꮦޔ⥛˄2008ᑈ᳔Ԣ⚍˅ROE˄ে䕈˅Ϟ䆕50᳜ᤶ⥛߯Ϯᵓ᳜ᤶ⥛% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⳌᇍѢA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ˈ佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙ЎأདѢԢԄؐǃ催㙵ᙃ⥛ⱘӋؐ㪱ㅍ㙵ˈϨᣕ㙵ᯊ䯈䭓DŽℸˈ≾␃䗮ᓔ䗮ⱘⳂⱘ䰸њҎ⇥Ꮥ䰙࣪ˈҢ䆕ⲥӮ㾦ᑺߎথˈᰃᬍA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙㒧ᵘǃᷥゟӋؐᡩ䌘⧚ᗉǃᓎゟA㙵Ԅؐ㑴أᴎࠊⱘ㡃དᮍᓣПϔDŽ䗮䖛ᇍ↨ಯ㒘᭄ৃҹ䇈ᯢ䖭Ͼ䯂乬1˖˅㞾2001ᑈҹᴹҷˈ㸼佭␃Ё䌘㙵ⱘMSCIЁӋؐᣛ᭄㸼⦄䖰䖰དѢMSCIЁ៤䭓ᣛ᭄ˈ㗠Ⳍৠᯊ䯈にষˈҷ㸼A㙵ⱘMSCI A㙵Ӌؐᣛ᭄ϢMSCI A㙵៤䭓ᣛ᭄㸼⦄Ⳍӓ˗2˅㞾2005ᑈҹᴹˈA㙵Ⲭ㙵ⳌᇍѢᇣⲬ㙵ⱘ㸼⦄˄Ё䆕100/Ё䆕500˅䖰䖰ᏂѢ␃㙵Ⲭ㙵ⳌᇍѢᇣⲬ㙵㸼⦄˄ᘦ⫳ൟ㙵ᣛ᭄/ᘦ⫳ᇣൟ㙵ᣛ᭄˅˗3˅A㙵Ꮦഎⱘ催ߚ㑶㙵˄Ϟ䆕㑶߽ᣛ᭄ⱘ˅㸼⦄䖰䖰ᔅѢ␃㙵Ꮦഎⱘ催ߚ㑶㙵˄ᘦ⫳催㙵ᙃ⥛ᣛ᭄˅˗4˅佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙ᣕ㙵ᯊ䯈ⳌᇍѢA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙䭓ˈ㘨Ѹ᠔ⱘᤶ⥛䖰䖰ԢѢϞѸ᠔Ϣ⏅Ѹ᠔ᤶ⥛DŽϞѸ᠔2003ᑈ㟇2014ᑈᑇഛ᳜ᤶ⥛Ў138%⏅ˈѸ᠔ᑇഛ᳜ᤶ⥛催䖒249%ˈ㗠㘨Ѹ᠔ᑇഛ᳜ᤶ⥛ҙ62%DŽ 5˖佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙أདӋؐ㙵 6˖A㙵៤䭓ᣛ᭄ϢӋؐᣛ᭄㸼⦄Ⳍӓ MSCIЁӋؐᣛ᭄MSCIЁ៤䭓ᣛ᭄MSCI A㙵Ӌؐᣛ᭄MSCI A㙵៤䭓ᣛ᭄7003502001/1/1=1002001/1/1=1003006002505002004003001501002005010000 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2 䩶䪕䫊㸠2001-01✸⚁ᓎㄥ2002-01Ѹ䗮䖤䕧⊍࣪2003-01᠓ഄѻ⬉ঞ݀⫼2004-01䴲䫊㸠䞥㵡ᓎᴤ2005-01≑䔺ଚ䌌䳊ଂ2006-01㓐ড়㒎㒛᳡㺙2007-01ᴎẄ᳝㡆䞥ሲ2008-01⸔࣪Ꮉ䕏Ꮉࠊ䗴2009-01ᆊ⬉⬉䆒2010-01ݰᵫ⠻⏨䗮ֵ2011-01䰆ݯᎹ⬉ᄤܗ఼ӊ2012-01亳ક佂᭭令佂ᮙ␌2013-01ए㥃Ӵၦ2014-01䅵ㅫᴎ2011-01-312001-012011-04-292002-012003-012011-07-292004-012011-10-312005-012012-01-312006-012012-04-272007-012012-07-312008-012012-10-312009-012013-01-312010-012013-04-262011-012013-07-312012-012013-10-312013-012014-01-302014-012014-04-30
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 7˖␃㙵Ⲭ㙵ⳌᇍᇣⲬ㙵㸼⦄䕗ད 8˖␃㙵催㙵ᙃ㙵⼼㸼⦄Ⳍᇍ䕗ད ᘦ⫳ൟᣛ᭄/ᘦ⫳ᇣൟᣛ᭄Ϟ䆕㑶߽ᣛ᭄ᘦ⫳催㙵ᙃ⥛ᣛ᭄Ё䆕100/Ё䆕 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 9˖佭␃㙵Ꮦ᳜ᤶ⥛䖰ԢѢA㙵˄%˅ ϞѸ᠔⏅Ѹ᠔㘨Ѹ᠔7006005004003002001000 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᘏԧᕅડ˖ⷁᳳ߽དA㙵ˈЁ䭓ᳳᕅડأЁᗻ Ўњߚᵤ≾␃䗮ⱘߎ㛑৺ᦤᤃA㙵Ⲭ㪱ㅍ㙵ˈҢ㗠ᇍA㙵ᘏԧѻ⫳ℷ䴶ᕅડˈ៥ӀҢ㒧ᵘǃԄؐǃ㙵ᙃ⥛ㄝ㾦ᑺᴹߚᵤ䌘䞥ৃ㛑ⱘ䖯ߎ⢊މDŽ 1˅Ң㒧ᵘᴹⳟˈℸᬒᓔⱘϞ䆕180ᣛ᭄៤ߚ㙵ǃϞ䆕380ᣛ᭄៤ߚ㙵ϢA+H㙵⼼ҹⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵␃㙵⿔㔎ⱘ⍜䌍㉏ЎЏˈヺড়佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙ⱘᡩ䌘أདDŽ䫊㸠ǃ㛑⑤ǃ䌘ᴀ䋻⠽ǃॳᴤ᭭ǃֱ䰽Ϣ䖤䕧ㄝᵓഫऴ↨᳔催ˈ⌕䗮Ꮦؐऴ↨ᘏ㑺Ў73%DŽ݊Ў佭␃Ё䌘㙵Ё䕗Ў⿔㔎ⱘए㥃Ϣ亳ક佂᭭㸠Ϯˈϸ㗙ऴ↨ড়䅵%ˈ㗠ᇍᑨH㙵Ёҙऴ↨%DŽ 10˖ℸᬒᓔⱘA㙵㙵⼼∴ҹ␃㙵ᡩ䌘㗙୰དⱘⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵ЎЏ 䫊㸠㛑⑤䌘ᴀ䋻⠽ॳᴤֱ᭭䰽䖤䕧݀⫼џϮࠊ㥃ǃ⫳⠽⾥ᡔϢ⫳ੑ⾥ᄺ亳કǃ佂᭭Ϣ⚳㤝ܗ䞥㵡᠓ഄѻ≑䔺Ϣ≑䔺䳊䚼ӊ㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙䳊ଂϮᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ၦԧ䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵए⭫ֱع䆒Ϣ᳡ࡵ⬉ֵ᳡ࡵ⍜䌍㗙᳡ࡵ亳કϢЏ㽕⫼ક䳊ଂञᇐԧѻકϢ䆒ᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼કଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵH㙵A㙵䫊㸠㛑⑤䌘ᴀ䋻⠽ॳᴤֱ᭭䰽䖤䕧0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ˈA㙵ᣝ✻≾㙵䗮ᬒᓔⱘ㙵⼼∴㒳䅵 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 3 2005-012003-012006-012003-072007-012004-012008-012004-072009-012005-012010-012005-072011-012006-012012-012006-072013-012007-012014-012007-072008-012008-072009-012009-072008-012010-012009-012010-072011-012010-012011-072011-012012-012012-072012-012013-012013-012013-072014-012014-01
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 2Ң˅ऴA㙵ᬒᓔ㙵⼼∴Џᇐഄԡ㸠ϮⱘԄؐ∈ᑇᴹⳟAˈ㙵Ԅؐ∈ᑇᰒ㨫ԢѢH㙵DŽᬒᓔⱘA㙵㙵⼼∴Ё䫊㸠ǃ㛑⑤ǃֱ䰽ǃ䖤䕧ᵓഫǃ亳ક佂᭭Ϣए㥃H㙵ᇍᑨᵓഫߚ߿ᡬӋ30%ǃ32%ǃ36%ǃ41%ǃ55%Ϣ14%DŽ 11˖ᴗ䞡䕗催ⱘᵓഫA㙵ⳌᇍѢH㙵ԄؐᐙᡬӋ 120250%A㙵PEH㙵PEA㙵ⳌᇍѢH㙵ⱘ⑶Ӌ⥛200%100150%$㙵ⳌᇍᡬӋⱘᵓഫ80100%6050%400%20-50%0-100% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ˈA㙵ᣝ✻≾㙵䗮ᬒᓔⱘ㙵⼼∴㒳䅵 3˅ԚᰃҢ㙵ᙃ⥛ⱘ㾦ᑺᴹⳟˈA㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛᱂䘡ԢѢH㙵DŽ䰸њ㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙ǃଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵǃᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼કǃ亳ક佂᭭ǃၦԧ䖭5Ͼ㸠ϮA㙵ᇍᑨ㙵⼼∴ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛催ѢH㙵ҹˈ݊Ҫ㸠ϮA㙵㙵ᙃ⥛᱂䘡ԢѢH㙵DŽ՟བ䫊㸠ǃ㛑⑤ǃ䖤䕧ǃֱ䰽A㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛ߚ߿Ў%ǃ%ǃ%Ϣ%Hˈ㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛ߚ߿Ў%ǃ%ǃ%Ϣ%DŽ 12˖A㙵㙵ᙃ⥛᱂䘡ԢѢH㙵 7%A㙵㙵ᙃ⥛H㙵㙵ᙃ⥛6%5%4%3%2%1%0% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ˈ A㙵ᣝ✻≾㙵䗮ᬒᓔⱘ㙵⼼∴㒳䅵 4˅Ң䌘䞥⌕ߎᴹⳟˈ≾␃䗮ᓔ䗮ৢৃ㛑Џ㽕ߚ⌕߯Ϯᵓ䌘䞥ˈᇍѢA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ⳌᇍᓩⱘᵓഫऴA㙵⌕䗮Ꮦؐ↨䞡㑺%ˈऴᬒᓔⱘ␃㙵䗮㙵⼼∴⌕䗮Ꮦؐ↨䞡㑺Ў%DŽ≾␃䗮ᰃA㙵Ϣ␃㙵ⱘঠᓔ䗮ˈA㙵Ꮦഎϡৃ䙓ܡᇚ䙁䘛䌘䞥ⱘ⌕ߎˈԚᰃৃ㛑Џ㽕ߚ⌕ⱘᰃ߯ϮᵓϢЁᇣᵓ䌘䞥DŽḍϞ᭛ⱘᇍ↨᭄ߚᵤˈⳌᇍѢ␃㙵ᡩ䌘㗙㗠㿔ˈA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ЎأདѢ᳝៤䭓ᗻⱘᮄ݈㸠Ϯ㙵⼼DŽህℸ␃㙵䗮ᬒᓔⱘᘦ⫳㓐ড়ൟᣛ᭄៤ߚ㙵ǃᘦ⫳Ёൟᣛ᭄៤ߚ㙵ϢA+H㙵⼼㗠㿔Aˈ㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ৃ㛑أདϸ⾡㉏ൟⱘ␃㙵ϔ˖ᰃA㙵⿔㔎ϨফA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙୰དⱘᵓഫˈ՟བ䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵᵓഫˈ݊A㙵Ё⌕䗮Ꮦؐऴ↨ҙЎ%ˈ␃㙵䗮ⱘ㙵⼼∴Ёऴ↨㑺Ў6%˗ѠᰃA㙵ԄؐⳌᇍأ催ˈ␃㙵ԄؐأԢˈԚᰃফA㙵ᡩ䌘㗙أདⱘᵓഫˈ՟བӴၦǃᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ǃञᇐԧϢ䆒ǃए⭫ֱعϢ᳡ࡵǃࠊ㥃ㄝᵓഫDŽ䖭ѯᵓഫৃ㛑Ӯߚ⌕A㙵ᡩ䌘㗙䌘䞥ԚˈᰃЏ㽕ᰃᇍ߯ϮᵓϢЁᇣᵓⱘ䌘䞥ߚ⌕ˈऴA㙵⌕䗮Ꮦؐⱘ%ˈऴᬒᓔⱘ␃㙵䗮㙵⼼∴⌕䗮Ꮦؐ↨䞡㑺Ў%DŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 4 䫊㸠≑䔺Ϣ≑䔺䳊䚼ӊ㛑⑤亳કǃ佂᭭Ϣ⚳㤝㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙⬉ֵ᳡ࡵଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵ݀⫼џϮ䖤䕧䖤䕧ଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵ݀⫼џϮֱ䰽ᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼ક㛑⑤ֱ䰽䫊㸠᠓ഄѻ⍜䌍㗙᳡ࡵ⬉ֵ᳡ࡵए⭫ֱع䆒Ϣ᳡ࡵ亳કǃ佂᭭Ϣ⚳㤝ࠊ㥃ǃ⫳⠽⾥ᡔϢ⫳ੑ⾥ᄺ䳊ଂϮ䌘ᴀ䋻⠽≑䔺Ϣ≑䔺䳊䚼ӊ亳કϢЏ㽕⫼ક䳊ଂ⍜䌍㗙᳡ࡵܗ䞥㵡ॳᴤ᭭䳊ଂϮ䌘ᴀ䋻⠽ၦԧए⭫ֱع䆒Ϣ᳡ࡵॳᴤ᭭ᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼કᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ၦԧ㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵ᠓ഄѻ亳કϢЏ㽕⫼ક䳊ଂ䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵܗ䞥㵡ࠊ㥃ǃ⫳⠽⾥ᡔϢ⫳ੑञᇐԧѻકϢ䆒⾥ᄺञᇐԧѻકϢ䆒
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 13˖␃㙵ᬒᓔⱘ㙵⼼∴ⱘᴎᵘϢA㙵↨䕗 䫊㸠᠓ഄѻ⬉ֵ᳡ࡵ㛑⑤⍜䌍㗙᳡ࡵ䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵ݀⫼џϮ䌘ᴀ䋻⠽ֱ䰽亳કǃ佂᭭Ϣ⚳㤝䳊ଂϮ䖤䕧ॳᴤ᭭ᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ܗ䞥㵡≑䔺Ϣ≑䔺䳊䚼ӊ㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙ࠊ㥃ǃ⫳⠽⾥ᡔϢ⫳ੑ⾥ᄺ亳કϢЏ㽕⫼ક䳊ଂᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼કञᇐԧѻકϢ䆒ଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵए⭫ֱع䆒Ϣ᳡ࡵၦԧ␃㙵A㙵0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ˈ ␃㙵ᣝ✻␃㙵䗮ᬒᓔⱘ㙵⼼∴㒳䅵 14˖A㙵ᡩ䌘㗙୰དⱘ䚼ߚᵓഫⳌᇍѢ␃㙵᳝ᡬӋ A㙵PE␃㙵PE␃㙵ⳌᇍѢA㙵ⱘ⑶Ӌ⥛9080%␃㙵ⳌᇍᡬӋⱘᵓഫ8060%7040%6020%500%40-20%30-40%20-60%100-80% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ˈ ␃㙵ᣝ✻␃㙵䗮ᬒᓔⱘ㙵⼼∴㒳䅵 ᘏԧᴹⳟˈ≾␃䗮ᓔ䗮ПৢⷁᳳᇍⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵ㄝᴗ䞡ᵓഫ᳝ᦤᤃ⫼ˈ߽དⲬˈԚᰃЁ䭓ᳳᇍ㙵ᣛᕅડأЁᗻDŽϔᮍ䴶ℸˈᬒᓔⱘA㙵㙵⼼∴ҹ佭␃ᡩ䌘㗙୰དⱘӋؐ㪱ㅍ㙵ϢH㙵⿔㔎ⱘ⍜䌍㉏ᵓഫЎЏˈϨᴗ䞡ᵓഫⱘA㙵Ԅؐᰒ㨫ԢѢH㙵ԄؐDŽⷁᳳᴹⳟˈA㙵ϢH㙵ⱘԄؐᬊᬯ᳝ࡽѢᦤᤃA㙵ᴗ䞡ᵓഫˈᘏԧᇍA㙵أ߽དDŽԚᰃϔᮍ䴶ˈA㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛᱂䘡ԢѢH㙵䖭ˈϡ߽Ѣᓩ䚼ߚأད㦋পᅮᬊⲞⱘ䭓㒓ᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙՟ˈབֱ䰽Ϣݏ㗕䞥ㄝDŽℸˈЁ䭓ᳳᴹⳟˈ≾␃䗮ⱘᓔ䗮ᇍѢA㙵ᘏԧᕅડأЁᗻDŽⲬ㪱ㅍ㙵㛑৺ফࠄᣕ㓁ࡼҢḍᴀϞ䖬䳔㽕ⳟ䌘ᴀᏖഎࠊᑺᗻⱘব䴽ǃ㒣⌢乘ᳳⱘᬍㄝㄝDŽˈ≾␃䗮ᓔ䗮ৢৃ㛑Ӯ䚼ߚߚ⌕A㙵߯Ϯᵓ䌘䞥ˈ՟བ䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵǃӴၦǃᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ǃञᇐԧϢ䆒ǃए⭫ֱعϢ᳡ࡵㄝᵓഫˈ݊ऴA㙵⌕䗮Ꮦؐ↨䞡㑺Ў%ऴˈᬒᓔⱘ␃㙵䗮㙵⼼∴⌕䗮Ꮦؐ↨䞡㑺Ў%DŽ 㸠Ϯߚᵤ˖Ӵ㒳㪱ㅍ㙵ԄؐӬˈ⍜䌍啭༈⿔㔎ᗻ Ӵ㒳㪱ㅍ㙵ԄؐӬ ⳌᇍH㙵㗠㿔Aˈ㙵Ӵ㒳㸠Ϯⱘ㪱ㅍ㙵䕗Ўᰒ㨫ⱘԄؐӬDŽϔᮍ䴶ˈҢϸഄϞᏖⱘA+H㙵ᴹⳟAˈ/Hᡬ⑶Ӌᣛ᭄໘ग़ᑩ䚼Aˈ㙵ᡬӋᐙᑺ䕗ⱘϾ㙵Џ㽕䲚Ё䞥㵡ǃ⬉ǃᓎㄥҹঞ਼ᳳᗻॳᴤ᭭ㄝᵓഫDŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 5 ၦԧञᇐԧѻકϢ䆒ᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ॳᴤ᭭ए⭫ֱع䆒Ϣ᳡ࡵ䌘ᴀ䋻⠽䳊ଂϮ᠓ഄѻࠊ㥃ǃ⫳⠽⾥ᡔϢ⫳ੑ⾥ᄺܗ䞥㵡ᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼ક䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵ㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙≑䔺Ϣ≑䔺䳊䚼ӊ䖤䕧㛑⑤亳કϢЏ㽕⫼ક䳊ଂ⍜䌍㗙᳡ࡵ⬉ֵ᳡ࡵଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵ䫊㸠ֱ䰽亳કǃ佂᭭Ϣ⚳㤝݀⫼џϮ
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 15˖A/H㙵ᡬ⑶Ӌᣛ᭄߯7ᑈᮄԢ 16˖䖥ᳳAH㙵ᡬӋᐙᑺ䕗ᇣ 30%ᘦ⫳AH㙵Aᘦ⫳AH㙵Hᘦ⫳AH㙵⑶Ӌ300015025%140250020%130200015%120150010%11010005%1000%500900802009-062010-062011-062012-062013-062014-06 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Wi䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ndˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ϔᮍ䴶ˈᇍ␃ᬒᓔⱘA㙵˄Ϟ䆕180៤ߚ㙵ǃϞ䆕380៤ߚ㙵ঞA+H˅ϢH㙵↨䕗㗠㿔ˈA㙵ԄؐӬЏ㽕䲚Ё䫊㸠ǃ≑䔺ǃ݀⫼џϮǃѸ䖤ǃ亳ક佂᭭ㄝ㸠ϮDŽ՟བˈA㙵݀⫼џϮ㸠Ϯ䴭ᗕPEЎסˈᇍᑨH㙵Ўס˗ḋᴀݙA㙵䫊㸠Ϯ䴭ᗕPEЎסˈ㗠H㙵䫊㸠Ϯ䴭ᗕPEЎסDŽ 17˖ᇍ␃ᓔᬒⱘA㙵ԄؐӬЏ㽕䲚Ё䫊㸠ǃ≑䔺ǃ݀⫼џϮǃѸ䖤ǃ亳ક佂᭭ㄝ㪱ㅍ㸠Ϯ 120 A㙵250%PEH㙵PEA㙵ⳌᇍѢH㙵ⱘ⑶Ӌ⥛200%100 150%$㙵ⳌᇍᡬӋⱘᵓഫ80 100%60 50%40 0%20 -50%0 -100% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 㸼1˖A-H㙵ᡬ⑶Ӌ↨䕗 䆕ࠌ 䆕ࠌৠ݀ৌ A㙵H㙵A/Hᡬ䆕ࠌ 䆕ࠌৠ݀ৌ A㙵H㙵A/Hᡬϔ㑻㸠Ϯ ϔ㑻㸠Ϯ ҷⷕ ㅔ⿄ H㙵ҷⷕ ӋḐ ӋḐ ⑶Ӌ ҷⷕ ㅔ⿄ H㙵ҷⷕ ӋḐ ӋḐ ⑶Ӌ ┡᷈Ё✸ ≑䔺 ✸⚁ ࡼ 㛑⑤ ⍋㶎∳㽓 ᓎᴤ ᳝㡆䞥ሲ ∈⊹ 䪰Ϯ 䵡䩶ϰᮍ 䩶䪕 ⬉䆒 㙵ӑ ⬉⇨ Ё䴲䫊㸠䞥 ᆊ⬉ ֱ 㵡 ⾥啭 ᅕ≾䞥亢 Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ⬉䆒 催䗳 ⾥ᡔ ݰϮЁ㘨 䫊㸠 ᴎẄ 䫊㸠 䞡⾥ Ё䴲䫊㸠䞥䭓ජ ≑䔺 Ҏᇓ 㵡 ≑䔺 Ёफᮍ ᓎㄥ Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 䪕ᓎ 㟾ぎ Ё↨Ѯ ✸⚁ ≑䔺 ⼲ढ 䖾 䴦ቯЁ 亳ક佂᭭ Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ସ䜦 䖰⋟ Ёֵ䴲䫊㸠䞥⬉ঞ݀ 䆕ࠌ 㵡 থ⬉ ⫼џϮ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 6 ≑䔺Ϣ≑䔺䳊䚼ӊ亳કǃ佂᭭Ϣ⚳㤝⬉ֵ᳡ࡵ݀⫼џϮ䖤䕧ଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵֱ䰽㛑⑤䫊㸠⍜䌍㗙᳡ࡵए⭫ֱع䆒Ϣ᳡ࡵࠊ㥃ǃ⫳⠽⾥ᡔϢ⫳Ă䌘ᴀ䋻⠽亳કϢЏ㽕⫼ક䳊ଂܗ䞥㵡䵡䩶㙵ӑ䳊ଂϮ⍋㶎∈⊹┡᷈ࡼၦԧᅕ≾催䗳䴦ቯସ䜦Ё䪕ᓎॳᴤ᭭Ёֵ䆕ࠌЁ⼲ढᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼કЁѸᓎЁЁ䪕ᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒Ёֱढ㛑䰙ढ⬉䰙㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙ଚ䫊㸠ЁҎᇓ᠓ഄѻ᯳ए㥃ݰϮ䫊㸠䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵЁᑇᅝЁ࣪Ꮉଚ䫊㸠ञᇐԧѻકϢ䆒Ёफ䔺ᓎ䆒䫊㸠Ѹ䗮䫊㸠Ё㟾
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 䆕ࠌ 䆕ࠌৠ݀ৌ A㙵H㙵A/Hᡬ䆕ࠌ 䆕ࠌৠ݀ৌ A㙵H㙵A/Hᡬϔ㑻㸠Ϯ ϔ㑻㸠Ϯ ҷⷕ ㅔ⿄ H㙵ҷⷕ ӋḐ ӋḐ ⑶Ӌ ҷⷕ ㅔ⿄ H㙵ҷⷕ ӋḐ ӋḐ ⑶Ӌ Ё䴲䫊㸠䞥ϰᮍ Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ᑇᅝ 㵡 㟾ぎ ढ㛑⬉ঞ݀ᑓᎲ 亳ક佂᭭ 䰙 ⫼џϮ 㥃Ϯ ЁЁ ᓎㄥ ᳝㡆䞥ሲ Ѹᓎ 䪱Ϯ Ё䞥䱙 ᓎㄥ ᓎᴤ Ё䪕 㙵ӑ ᎹଚЁ 䫊㸠 ᓎㄥ 䫊㸠 Ёފ ЁಯᎱ ⊍࣪ Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ࣪ ៤⏱ ଚϰ∳⬉ঞ݀ 䫊㸠 䫊㸠 ⦃ֱ ⫼џϮ ᯳䚥✸ ए㥃 ᴎẄ ए㥃 ᴎ ᓎ䆒㋿䞥 䫊㸠 ᳝㡆䞥ሲ 䫊㸠 ⷓϮ ܝЁ⍋ 䫊㸠 Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 䫊㸠 䲚䖤 Ѹ䗮ܪᎲ 䫊㸠 ✸⚁ 䫊㸠 ✸Ϯ Ё᰼号 䫊㸠 䕏Ꮉࠊ䗴 䫊㸠 㒌Ϯ ЁϞ⍋ ⊍࣪ ⬉䆒 ⊍ ⬉⇨ ⍋䗮䴲䫊㸠䞥䖲 Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 䆕ࠌ 㵡 ␃ ढ⬉⬉ঞ݀࣫䖄 ᠓ഄѻ 䰙 ⫼џϮ ᅲϮ Ёᑓ㠍 Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ᴎẄ 㟾 䰙 ЁSϞ ᴎẄ ⊍࣪ फ䔺 ࣪ Ё݈ᮄढ 䗮ֵ ए㥃 䗮䆃 ࠊ㥃 ᑓ⏅ϔᢪ Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ᴎẄ 䪕䏃 㙵ӑ ⇥⫳ᯚᯢ 䫊㸠 ᴎẄ 䫊㸠 ᴎᑞ Ϟ⍋䞡ᑚ ए㥃 䩶䪕 ए㥃 䩶䪕 Ёֵ߯Ϯ⬉ঞ݀ 䫊㸠 䫊㸠 ⦃ֱ ⫼џϮ ᮄढ䴲䫊㸠䞥࣫Ҏ ᴎẄ ֱ䰽 㵡 㙵ӑ ⏅催फҀ Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 䗮ֵ 䗳 ❞⣿ ᑓ≑⋯䰇 ≑䔺 ᳝㡆䞥ሲ 䲚ಶ 䪐Ϯ 偀䩶㒣㒀 䩶䪕 㓐ড় 㙵ӑ 㒎ᴎ Ё⍋SҾ ⊍࣪ ⸔࣪Ꮉ ⊍᳡ ࣪ Ё⍋* Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ⬉䆒 থሩ ϰ⬉ Ё䲚ቅϰ ᴎẄ ᴎẄ 䲚ಶ 啭 ⱪ䗮⋯䰇 Ѹ䗮䖤䕧 ᓎᴤ 催䗳 ⦏⩗ ⌭∳ ≑䔺 Ϫᅱ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖㙵ӋЎ2014ᑈ7᳜28᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 7
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 A㙵ᷛⱘⳌᇍH㙵Єᆠˈ⍜䌍啭༈⿔㔎ᗻ ᇍ↨H㙵Ꮦഎˈᇍ␃ᓔᬒⱘA㙵Ўᡩ䌘㗙ᦤկњⱘᡩ䌘䗝ᢽ˖佪ܜˈҢᘏԧ᭄䞣ᴹⳟˈᇍ␃ᓔᬒⱘA㙵᭄䞣Ў568ᆊˈ䖰ѢH㙵ⱘ195ᆊˈ⎉ⲪњⱘЁݙഄϞᏖ݀ৌ˗݊ˈҢϞ݀ৌⱘ⌕䗮㾘ᴹⳟˈᇍ␃ᓔᬒⱘA㙵⌕䗮Ꮦؐ㑺ϛғҎ⇥Ꮥˈ䖰ѢH㙵ⱘϛғҎ⇥ᏕˈᦤկњⱘᏖഎᆍ䞣˗᳔ৢˈҢϞᏖ݀ৌ᭄䞣ⱘ㸠ϮߚᏗϞⳟˈA㙵䳊ଂǃ亳ક佂᭭ǃ㗤⫼⍜䌍ક˄≑䔺ǃᆊ⬉ǃ˅⍜䌍᳡ࡵ˄ᮙ␌ǃ˅ॳᴤ᭭䌘ᴀકǃ݀⫼џϮǃए㥃ㄝ㸠Ϯⱘ᭄䞣ᰒ㨫䍙䖛H㙵Ўˈᡩ䌘㗙ᦤկЎЄᆠⱘᡩ䌘ᷛⱘDŽℸˈҹϞ㸠ϮЁ㗗ˈ㰥ࠄ␃㙵ᡩ䌘㗙ᇍ催ROEঞ〇ع៤䭓ⱘᡩ䌘أདᇍˈѢ␃㙵ᡩ䌘㗙㗠㿔ˈ亳ક佂᭭ǃए㥃ǃ݀⫼џϮǃᆊ⬉ǃЬ⫼䔺ㄝ㸠Ϯⱘᷛⱘ⿔㔎ᗻ䕗Ўᰒ㨫DŽ 18˖H㙵Ϣᇍ␃ᓔᬒA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ᭄䞣ⱘ㸠Ϯᇍ↨ A㙵H㙵1121201008480604242363430132928264023232122181313141210111010895664555620322333111222310 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᇏᡒQFII⍋ᡩ䌘㗙୰ⱘ≾㙵䗮ᷛⱘ ⍋ᡩ䌘㗙׳䘧≾㙵䗮䖯ܹA㙵ᏖഎҪˈӀⱘᡩ䌘дᛃأདӮᕅડࠄ⦄᳝ⱘᄬ䞣मᓜḐሔDŽ⍋ᡩ䌘㗙أདⱘ㙵⼼≾␃䗮ᓔ䗮ࠡৢৃ㛑Ӯᔶ៤ϔᅮⱘᡩ䌘ᴎӮDŽḍৃᕫⱘ݀ᓔֵᙃҹঞ⍋Ꮦഎᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙ऴЏᇐഄԡⱘᅲ䰙ᚙމˈ៥ӀҢQFII䞡ҧ㙵⍋ᴎᵘ䇗ⷨড作ㄝϸϾ㓈ᑺˈ䖯ϔℹẇ⧚ৃ㛑᳝ᡩ䌘ᴎӮⱘ㸠Ϯ㙵⼼DŽ Ң2014ᑈϔᄷⱘᚙމᴹⳟˈབᵰࠨ䰸ᥝ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ㉏Ԑ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ㙵ˈৃҹথ⦄QFIIᇍЁ␌ࠊ䗴ϮǃֵᙃᡔᴃϮǃ⍜䌍ᵓഫⱘأདᑺ䕗催DŽ ݊ЁˈQFII䞡ҧⱘ170া㙵⼼Ёˈ᳝43াߚᏗᎹϮ㸠ϮЁˈ᳝31াߚᏗᴤ᭭㸠ϮЁˈ㗠ֵᙃᡔᴃǃৃ䗝⍜䌍ǃ᮹ᐌ⍜䌍ǃए⭫ֱعㄝ㸠Ϯߚ߿᳝23াǃ21াǃ19া18া䞡ҧ㙵DŽϢПⳌᇍˈ⬉ֵ᳡ࡵ㸠ϮЁⱘ䞡ҧ㙵᭄䞣Ў0DŽ Ԛᰃˈབᵰ៥Ӏⳟ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖؐߚᏗⱘ䆱ˈህӮথ⦄ৃ䗝⍜䌍ǃ᮹ᐌ⍜䌍䖭ϸϾ㸠ϮᰃQFIIᡩ᳔ܹ䌘䞥ⱘ乚ඳDŽ݊ЁˈQFII䞡ҧ㙵ߚᏗৃ䗝⍜䌍ǃ᮹ᐌ⍜䌍ЁⱘᏖؐऴ↨ߚ߿Ў38%ǃ20%DŽᎹϮᴤ᭭㸠ϮЁⱘ䞡ҧ㙵Ꮦؐऴ↨ഛЎ%ᎺেDŽᇍѢᏖഎ䅸Ўⱘ⍋ᡩ䌘㗙أདⱘ䞥㵡㙵ˈ݊䞡ҧ㙵Ꮦؐҙऴࠄ%DŽᔧ✊ˈབᵰ៥Ӏᇚ㒳䅵ষᕘࣙϞ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ㉏Ԑ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ㙵ˈ䙷МQFIIᣕ᳝ⱘ䞡ҧ䞥㵡㙵ᏖؐᇚऴࠄQFII䞡ҧ㙵ᭈԧᏖؐⱘ52%DŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 8 ञᇐԧѻકϢ䆒ֱ䰽ॳᴤ᭭Ċ⬉ֵϮࡵĊ㓐ড়䞥㵡᠓ഄѻ݀⫼џϮĊᡔᴃ⹀ӊϢ䆒ᆊᒁϢϾҎ⫼ક䳊ଂϮၦԧ㗤⫼⍜䌍કϢ᳡㺙㛑⑤Ċ≑䔺Ϣ≑䔺䳊䚼ӊ䕃ӊϢ᳡ࡵଚϮϧϮ᳡ࡵ亳કǃ佂᭭Ϣ⚳㤝亳કϢЏ㽕⫼ક䳊ଂ⍜䌍㗙᳡ࡵए⭫ֱع䆒Ϣ᳡ࡵ䫊㸠䖤䕧ࠊ㥃ǃ⫳⠽⾥ᡔϢĂ䌘ᴀક
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 19˖Ң䞡ҧ㙵ᣕҧ᭄䞣ⱘ㸠ϮߚᏗⳟˈQFIIᇍЁ␌ࠊ䗴ϮֵᙃᡔᴃϮⱘأདᑺ䕗催 50454035302520151050㛑⑤ᴤ᭭ᎹϮৃ䗝⍜䌍᮹ᐌ⍜䌍ए⭫ֱع䞥㵡ֵᙃᡔᴃ⬉ֵ᳡ࡵ݀⫼џϮ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈQFII䞡ҧ㙵˄ࠨ䰸䚼ߚ䫊㸠㙵˅Ўࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ㙵DŽ 20˖Ң䞡ҧ㙵ᣕҧᏖؐⱘ㸠ϮߚᏗⳟˈQFIIᇍ⍜䌍ᵓഫЁ␌ࠊ䗴Ϯⱘأདᑺ䕗催 A㙵QFII䞡ҧ㙵QFII䞡ҧ㙵˄ࠨ䰸䚼ߚ䫊㸠㙵˅60%50%40%30%20%10%0%㛑⑤ᴤ᭭ᎹϮৃ䗝⍜䌍᮹ᐌ⍜䌍ए⭫ֱع䞥㵡ֵᙃᡔᴃ⬉ֵ᳡ࡵ݀⫼џϮ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈQFII䞡ҧ㙵˄ࠨ䰸䚼ߚ䫊㸠㙵˅Ўࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ㙵DŽ QFIIأདЁԢԄؐⱘ㙵⼼ˈԚᑊϡĀϔߔߛāಲ䙓催ԄؐDŽҢ2014ᑈϔᄷⱘᚙމᴹⳟˈQFII䞡ҧ㙵䚼ߚ䲚ЁЁԢԄؐऎඳDŽ↨བˈ᭄䞣Ϟˈ᳝ϔञⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖⲜ⥛30סҹϟˈ⡍߿ᰃ䲚Ё10-20סⱘऎ䯈˗㗠Ꮦؐऴ↨Ϟˈ᳝ᇚ䖥б៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵䲚Ё30סҹϟⱘᏖⲜ⥛ऎ䯈ˈ⡍߿ᰃ䲚Ё10סҹϟⱘऎ䯈DŽ ⳟᏖޔ⥛ⱘ䆱ˈг㛑ᕫࠄ㉏Ԑⱘ㒧䆎DŽ↨བˈ᭄䞣Ϟˈ᳝䖥݁៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖޔ⥛3סҹϟˈ⡍߿ᰃ䲚Ё1-3סⱘऎ䯈˗㗠Ꮦؐऴ↨Ϟˈ᳝ᇚ䖥ϗ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵䲚Ё3סҹϟⱘᏖޔ⥛ऎ䯈ˈ⡍߿ᰃ䲚Ё1-3סⱘऎ䯈DŽ Ԛᰃˈ䳔㽕⬭ᛣⱘᰃˈሑㅵ催Ԅؐ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖؐऴ↨ᕜԢˈԚᰃ᭄䞣Ϟैϡৃᗑ㾚DŽ↨བQˈFII170া䞡ҧ㙵Ёˈᣕ᳝њ20াᏖⲜ⥛60סҹϞⱘ݀ৌˈᣕ᳝њ16াᏖޔ⥛6סҹϞⱘ݀ৌDŽ᠔ҹˈ⍋ᡩ䌘㗙гϡᅠܼᰃ亢䰽㾘䙓ൟⱘᡩ䌘㗙DŽᔧ✊ˈ䖭݊Ёгᄬݙഄ䞥݀ৌخᡩ䌘乒䯂Ⳉㅵ⧚QFII䌘䞥ᯊˈᇚԧ⦄ݙᡩ䌘㗙ⱘᡩ䌘亢ḐㄝॳDŽϟ䴶ⱘߚᵤг䛑Ӯফࠄ䖭ѯॳⱘᡄࡼDŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 9
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 21˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ 22˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ 50%4045%3540%3035%2530%2025%20%1515%1010%55%00%<10<20<30<40<50<60>=60<10<20<30<40<50<60>=60 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤㙵DŽ ଂ㙵DŽ 23˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPBߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ 24˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘPBߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ 40%504535%4030%3525%3020%252015%1510%105%500%<1<2<3<4<5<6>=6<1<2<3<4<5<6>=6 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤㙵DŽ ଂ㙵DŽ QFIIᣕ᳝ЁԢᏖؐⱘ㙵⼼᭄䞣ˈԚ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ҡᏖؐ㙵⼼ЁDŽҢ2014ᑈϔᄷⱘᚙމᴹⳟˈ᭄䞣ϞQˈFII䞡ҧ㙵䚼ߚЎЁԢᏖؐ㙵⼼ˈ݊Ё᳝䍙䖛݁៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖؐ100ғҹϟˈ⡍߿ᰃ䲚Ё20-100ғⱘऎ䯈DŽϡ䖛ˈᏖؐऴ↨Ϟˈ᳝߭ܿ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵Ў200ғᏖؐⱘЁⲬ㙵DŽᘏԧ㗠㿔ˈQFII䗝㙵ϞӮܙߚ㗗㰥ЁԢᏖؐ㙵⼼ⱘᡩ䌘ᴎӮˈԚᰃЏҧ䜡㕂ⱘैҡ✊ᰃ⹂ᅮᗻৃ㛑Ⳍᇍ䕗ᔎⱘЁⲬ㙵DŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 10
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 25˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖؐߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ 26˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᏖؐߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ 60%6050%504040%3030%2020%1010%00% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤㙵DŽ ଂ㙵DŽ QFIIᑊϡᖙ✊أད催㙵ᙃⱘ㙵⼼ˈԚ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ЁҡӮ㗗㰥㙵ᙃ⥛䖭ϔ㋴DŽҢ2014ᑈϔᄷⱘᚙމᴹⳟˈ᭄䞣ϞˈQFII䞡ҧ㙵䚼ߚЎ㙵ᙃ⥛أԢⱘ㙵⼼ˈ݊Ё᳝䍙䖛ϗ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛2%ҹϟˈ⡍߿ᰃ䲚Ё1%ҹϟⱘऎ䯈DŽϡ䖛ˈᏖؐऴ↨Ϟˈ᳝߭䍙䖛ϝ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵Ў㙵ᙃ⥛Ѣ5%ⱘ催㙵ᙃ㙵⼼DŽᘏԧ㗠㿔ˈQFII䗝㙵Ϟᑊϡᖙ✊أད催㙵ᙃⱘ㙵⼼ˈԚ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ЁҡӮ㗗㰥㙵ᙃ⥛䖭ϔ㋴DŽ 27˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛ߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ 28˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘ㙵ᙃ⥛ߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ 25%605020%4015%3010%205%1000%=0<1<2<3<4<5<6>=6=0<1<2<3<4<5<6>=6 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤㙵DŽ ଂ㙵DŽ QFIIӮᇱ䆩фܹϔѯ㒽Ꮒ㙵ˈԚ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ҡЏ㽕㒽Ӭ㙵ЁDŽҢ2014ᑈϔᄷⱘᚙމᴹⳟˈ᭄䞣ϞˈQFII䞡ҧ㙵䚼ߚЎROE䕗催ⱘ㙵⼼ˈ݊Ё᳝䍙䖛Ѩ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘROE10%ҹϞ⡍ˈ߿ᰃ䲚Ё10-20%ⱘऎ䯈DŽԚᰃRˈOEᇣѢ10%ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵гϡᇥˈ݊Ё䖬᳝䖥15%ⱘ㙵⼼ⱘROEϡࠄ5%˄Ўℷ᭄˅ˈ䖥6%ⱘ㙵⼼ⱘROEЎ䋳DŽᏖؐऴ↨Ϟˈ᳝߭б៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘROE10%ҹϞˈ⡍߿ᰃ᳝䍙䖛ϝ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘROE30%ҹϞDŽ ⳟޔ߽⍺䗳ⱘ䆱ˈг㛑ᕫࠄ㉏Ԑⱘ㒧䆎DŽ᭄䞣Ϟˈ䍙䖛݁៤ⱘQFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳10%ҹϞˈ⡍߿ᰃ䲚Ё10-40%ⱘऎ䯈ˈ䖬᳝䖥ϸ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳⫮㟇60%ҹϞDŽԚᰃˈޔ߽⍺䗳ᇣѢ10%ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵гϡᇥˈ݊Ё䖬᳝ϝ៤㙵⼼ⱘޔ߽䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 11
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 ⍺䗳Ў䋳DŽᏖؐऴ↨Ϟ߭ˈ᳝䖥б៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳10%ҹϞ⡍ˈ߿ᰃ䲚Ё10-30%ⱘऎ䯈ˈ䖬᳝䖥ϸ៤ⱘ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳50%ҹϞDŽ ᘏԧ㗠㿔QˈFII䗝㙵ϞӮᇱ䆩фܹϔѯ㒽Ꮒ㙵Ԛˈ䞡ҧⱘᴗ䞡䜡㕂ҡЏ㽕㒽Ӭ㙵ЁDŽ 29˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘROEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ 30˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘROEߚᏗ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ 35%504530%4025%353020%2515%201510%105%500%<=0<5<10<15<20<25<30>=30<=0<5<10<15<20<25<30>=30 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤㙵DŽ ଂ㙵DŽ 31˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳ߚᏗ 32˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ⱘޔ߽⍺䗳ߚᏗ ˄ᣕҧ᭄䞣˅ ˄ᣕҧᏖؐ˅ 40%6035%5030%4025%3020%15%2010%105%00%<=0<10<20<30<40<50<60>=60<=0<10<20<30<40<50<60>=60 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤㙵DŽ ଂ㙵DŽ ݡԧࠄϾ㙵ϞˈQFII䞡ҧᣕ᳝ⱘϨЎ≾㙵䗮䆩⚍ⱘ㙵⼼᳝˖⍋㶎∈⊹ǃ䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄǃϞ≑䲚ಶǃϞ⍋ᴎഎǃ⾺䪕䏃ǃӞ߽㙵ӑㄝˈḍ݀ᓔֵᙃˈ䖭ѯ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᣕҧᏖؐ䛑1ғҹϞ˗䖬᳝ᘦゟ⊍㔌ǃЁ䌌ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃ䴦ቯସ䜦ǃ⫼ট䕃ӊǃᵫ⋟⬉ᄤㄝˈḍ݀ᓔֵᙃˈ䖭ѯ䞡ҧ㙵ⱘᣕҧᏖؐ䛑ऴࠄ⌕䗮Ꮦؐⱘ2%ҹϞDŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 12
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 㸼2˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ὖ㾜˄ᣕҧᏖؐ1ғҹϞⱘ㙵⼼˅ ᣕҧᏖؐ ऴ⌕䗮Ꮦؐ ᘏᏖؐPE 㙵ᙃ⥛ ROE ޔ߽⍺䗳 ᰃ৺Ў≾㙵䆕ࠌҷⷕ 䆕ࠌㅔ⿄ PB (ғܗ) ↨䞡 (ғܗ) TTM ˄%˅ ˄%˅ ˄%˅ 䗮䆩⚍ Ḑ⬉఼ % ⍋㶎∈⊹ % Y 䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄ % Y 㕢ⱘ䲚ಶ % Ϟ≑䲚ಶ % Y Ϟ⍋ᴎഎ % Y ⾺䪕䏃 % Y Ӟ߽㙵ӑ % Y ⋟⊇㙵ӑ % 䴦ቯସ䜦 % Y फҀ䫊㸠 % Y ➩Ҁସ䜦 % Ёᮙ % Y ⫼ট䕃ӊ % Y ∳䪗≑䔺 % Ё࣪ % Y ঠ∛থሩ % ᅕ⊶䫊㸠 % Ё䌌 % Y 㧆ܝ % ѥफⱑ㥃 % 䵡䩶㙵ӑ % Ё䪕ᓎ % Y ⲞՄࠊ㥃 % Y 䞥㶇㵖 % ∌䕝䍙Ꮦ % Y ЁҎᇓ % Y ┡᷈ࡼ % ढ⍺ϝб % ϰढ⾥ᡔ % ϝϔ䞡Ꮉ % Y ᅱ䩶㙵ӑ % Y 㢣⊞ᇨ % ϰ䰓䰓㛊 % 剐䎗ए⭫ % ᅝᖑড় % Y Ё࣫䔺 % Y 䰇ܝ✻ᯢ % Y Б⦴䲚ಶ % ⽣㗔⦏⩗ % Y ∈ѩഞ % 䗮࣪ϰᅱ % Y ЁЁ䪕 % Y ∳㽓∈⊹ % Ể偀᳡佄 % ⫳Ⲟ⾥ᡔ % Y ࣫ᮄᓎᴤ % Ёⱒ䲚ಶ % ≗Ể⫳⠽ % ড়㙹ϝ⋟ % Y Ϟ⍋䋱ኁ % Y 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ㙵DŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 13
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 㸼3˖QFII䞡ҧ㙵ὖ㾜˄ᣕҧᏖؐऴ⌕䗮Ꮦؐ2%ҹϞⱘ㙵⼼˅ ᣕҧᏖؐ ऴ⌕䗮Ꮦؐ ᘏᏖؐ PE 㙵ᙃ⥛ ROE ޔ߽⍺䗳 ᰃ৺Ў≾㙵䆕ࠌҷⷕ 䆕ࠌㅔ⿄ PB (ғܗ) ↨䞡 (ғܗ) TTM ˄%˅ ˄%˅ ˄%˅ 䗮䆩⚍ Ḑ⬉఼ % Ϟ⍋ᴎഎ % Y 㕢ⱘ䲚ಶ % ᘦゟ⊍㔌 % Y ∈ѩഞ % ⍋㶎∈⊹ % Y Ể偀᳡佄 % ➩Ҁସ䜦 % 㢣⊞ᇨ % Ё䌌 % Y ࡴࡴ亳ક % ∳㽓∈⊹ % फҀ䫊㸠 % Y 䴦ቯସ䜦 % Y 唤䫖Ϯ % ϰढ⾥ᡔ % ∳䪗≑䔺 % ⫼ট䕃ӊ % Y ᵫ⋟⬉ᄤ % Y ᅝᖑড় % Y ⋟⊇㙵ӑ % Ёᮙ % Y ∌䌉⬉఼ % 㧆ܝ % ≗Ể⫳⠽ % Ёⱒ䲚ಶ % ⲞՄࠊ㥃 % Y ббЙ % ∳फ催㑸 % Y ᅝ⋕⾥ᡔ % 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘक⌕䗮㙵ϰ᭄䅵ㅫˈࠨ䰸њ䌘ᣕ᳝ⱘ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ࣫Ҁ䫊㸠ǃᅕ⊶䫊㸠ǃफҀ䫊㸠ǃढ䫊㸠ㄝѨᆊϞᏖ䫊㸠㾷⽕ৢⱘ䰤ଂ㙵DŽ ˈḍϞ᭛ⱘߚᵤҹঞA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘ䋶ࡵ᭄ˈ៥Ӏৃҹ≾㙵䗮䆩⚍㙵⼼Ёᣥ䗝ߎԄؐⳌᇍأԢǃ㙵ᙃ⥛Ⳍᇍأ催ঞϮ㒽㡃དⱘ㙵⼼Ў⸔ⱘফⲞ㙵⼼∴བˈЁ㑶㡆᠔⼎DŽ㙵⼼∴Ё᳝ݙ㩭ढ⬉ǃ⌺থ䫊㸠ǃढ㛑䰙ǃ⾺䪕䏃ǃᅕ≾催䗳ǃढ⬉䰙ǃֱ߽ഄѻǃ䴦ቯ⍋ᇨㄝϾ㙵DŽϢℸৠᯊˈ៥Ӏгᇍ䚼ߚ⍋ᴎᵘخњ䇗ⷨDŽᘏԧᴹⳟˈ⍋ᡩ䌘㗙݇⊼ᑺ䕗催ⱘ≾㙵䗮䆩⚍㙵⼼᳝䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄǃϞ≑䲚ಶǃ䭓∳⬉ǃढ⬉䰙ǃ⾺䪕䏃ǃϞ⍋ᴎഎǃЁᑇᅝǃ݈Ϯ䫊㸠ǃ∌䕝䍙ᏖㄝDŽ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 14
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 33˖≾㙵䗮ḋᴀЁԢԄؐǃ催㙵ᙃⱘ㙵⼼ᵘ៤⸔ⱘফⲞ㙵⼼∴ 100 PE90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅02 4 6 8 10 12 14 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖ḍA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ2013ᑈᑈ2014ᑈϔᄷ䴆ⱘ䋶ࡵ᭄䅵ㅫ ᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹˖≾␃䗮㸠ᚙϟⱘA㙵क䞥㙵 ҢᏖഎᇍ≾␃䗮䖛Ѣܙߚ⬹أϔ㟈ⱘ㾷䇏ᴹⳟˈⷁᳳѢ≾␃ϸഄ㙵⼼ӋᏂǃԄؐᏂⱘㅔऩ䘏䕥᠔ⓨ㒢ⱘ㸠ᚙˈৃ㛑Ӯ↨䕗ᖿഄܥ⦄ࠊᑺ߽དDŽЁ䭓ᳳˈ≾␃䗮ㄝ䌘ᴀᏖഎࠊᑺⱘᬍ䴽߭Ӯࡼᡩ䌘㗙㒧ᵘǃѸᯧдᛃᏖഎ亢Ḑⱘᬍব䕀ᤶˈ៥Ӏৢ㓁䳔㽕݇⊼ϸഄᏖഎЁᄬϔᅮ⿔㔎ᗻӋؐⱘᷛⱘҹঞ䌘ᴀᏖഎࠊᑺⱘ䖯ϔℹব䴽DŽ ԧࠄᡩ䌘㨑ഄϞˈ៥Ӏᓎ䆂ⷁᳳⱘĀ༫߽āѸᯧ㸠ᚙЁˈ݇⊼ᄬӋᏂⱘAH㙵ǃᄬᯢᰒⱘԄؐᏂⱘᵓഫ㸠ϮˈЁ䭓ᳳ߭ᑨ䆹݇⊼催㙵ᙃ⥛ǃᏖؐ㾘䗖ЁϨᄬϔᅮ⿔㔎ᗻӋؐⱘᷛⱘৠˈᯊ䖬ৃҹ݇⊼≾␃䗮䆩⚍ᇚᏺᴹ䞣Ϯࡵ䋵⤂ⱘࠌଚ㙵DŽҢ㸠Ϯᴹⳟˈ≾␃䗮㸠ᚙϟⱘফⲞϾ㙵Џ㽕䲚Ё亳ક佂᭭ǃ⬉ǃѸ䖤ǃ䞥㵡ǃഄѻǃ≑䔺ǃᆊ⬉ㄝأ㪱ㅍⱘ㸠ϮЁˈ㺙ࠊ䗴ǃݯᎹǃए㥃ㄝ乚ඳЁⱘ⿔㔎ક⾡г᳝ϔᅮⱘᓩDŽҢϸഄ㙵ӋӋᏂǃԄؐᏂǃ⿔㔎ᗻǃ㙵ᙃಲǃϮ㒽ᴀ䴶ǃᏖؐ㾘ㄝ݁Ͼ㓈ᑺߎথˈݡࡴ㗗㰥ᬓㄪǃ㸠ϮǃЏ乬ҹঞ㙵Ӌሖ䴶ⱘڀ࣪ࠖˈᑊܙߚখ㗗㸠ϮߚᵤᏜⱘ㤤ᛣ㾕ˈ៥Ӏㄯ䗝ߎक䞥㙵ˈߚ߿ᰃ˖䴦ቯ⍋ᇨǃ䭓∳⬉ǃϞ≑䲚ಶǃ⾺䪕䏃ǃ䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄǃଚ䫊㸠ǃֱ߽ഄѻǃЁ࣫䔺ǃЁ㟾⬉ᄤǃЁᮙ˄ৢ䰘݀ৌҟ㒡DŽ˅ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 15
A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹ϧ乬 34˖≾㙵䗮ᡩ䌘ᷛⱘⱘㄯ䗝䘏䕥 ЁԢԄؐˈЁ催㙵ᙃ⥛ӋᏂ˖ᄬӋᏂⱘAH㙵㒽Ӭⱑ偀≾␃䗮ᡩ䌘ᷛⱘԄؐᏂ˖ᄬᯢᰒⱘᏖؐЁㄝأԄؐᏂⱘᵓഫ㸠Ϯ⿔㔎ᗻ˖A㙵⣀᳝ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 16
䆕䴦ቯ⍋ᇨ˄600690˅ᄤᷛ乬 ࠌⷨ KKRܹ㙵᳝ᳯࡴ䗳䌘⑤ᭈড়ˈ おЏϮᦤछ⬹䕀ൟৠℹ䖯 ਞ фܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ݀ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ৌ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍˖ ⷨⳂᷛӋ˖ܗ お ⍋ᡩ䌘㗙أདᆊ⬉㙵ᡩ䌘ˈ≾␃䗮᳝߽݀ৌԄؐᦤछDŽϔᮍ䴶ˈQFIIЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᡩ䌘㗙أདᏖؐǃ〇䭓ǃԢԄؐǃ催㙵ᙃ⥛ⱘ㪱ㅍ݀ৌˈ 2014ϔ㚵䲙Б ᄷᑺQFIIᣕ㙵↨䞡ᆊ⬉㸠ϮᥦৡѠ˄%˅ˈA㙵ᆊ⬉啭༈␃㙵Ꮦᆊ⬉䆱˖021-20262103 എकߚ⿔㔎DŽϔᮍ䴶ˈ㟇7᳜25᮹ˈ⍋ᇨ⬉఼˄˅Ў䴦⬉ቯ⍋ᇨᄤ݀ৌ˄ᣕ㙵䚂ӊ˖huyl@ %˅ˈᏖؐᏆ䖒604ғܗˈᇍᑨ2014ᑈ18ס㸠PE˗ৠᯊˈ䴦ቯ⍋ᇨᏖؐҙЎ488ғܗˈᇍᑨ2014ᑈ9סPEˈ᮴䆎ҢSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120019 ϮᴗⲞ⌟ㅫ䖬ᰃߚ䚼Ԅؐ⌟ㅫˈH㙵䕗A㙵⑶Ӌᰒ㨫ˈ䱣ⴔ≾␃䗮Ѹᯧ䞥᯳ ࡴˈA/HᏖഎԄؐԧ㋏Ꮒᓖ᳝ᳯᬊじDŽ ⬉䆱˖021-20262128 ϟञᑈᴀ䴶᳝ᳯ⦃↨ᬍˈϮ㒽〇䭓ࠡᦤϟࡼ⬹߯ᮄϢ㨑ഄDŽ䚂ӊ˖jinxing@ ݀ৌϞञᑈぎ䇗Ϯࡵᦤछᰒ㨫ˈԄ䅵Q2ぎ䇗ݙ䫔ᬊܹৠ↨30%+˗䱣ⴔSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512100002 Ҏਬ䇗ᭈࠄԡǃᮄકᏗሔᅠ៤ˈϟञᑈބ⋫Ϯࡵӑ乱᳝ᳯಲछDŽĀᇣᖂā 㒘㒛᳝⾡䆩⚍ᓣˈᴀ䋼ᰃ▔থ㒘㒛⌏ǃᦤछҎਬ▔ࢅĀˈᇣᖂā㋶ᇍ݀ৌᕅડ߽ѢᓞDŽᱎ㛑ᆊ⬉ऩકᑇৄঠㅵ唤ϟϟˈञᑈᱎ㛑࣪ⱘⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ ބㆅǃぎ䇗ǃ⚸ㆅㄝѻક䛑᳝ᳯ䰚㓁䖯ܹᏖഎˈ䗮䖛U+ᱎ㛑ᆊሙᑇৄǃ≾⏅300ᆊ⬉(Ёֵ)Allseen㘨ⲳǃHomekit㋏㒳ㄝ⾡ᔶᓣ⏅ᑺখϢࠄܼ⧗ᱎ㛑ᆊሙ⫳ᗕԧ20%㋏Ёএˈ⹂ֱ乚ܜഄԡDŽ᮹᮹乎ԧ㋏Ѡϝ㑻Ꮦഎ䖤㧹㡃དˈin-store㋏0%㒳䌟ќϧपᑫܙߚ㞾Џ㒣㧹ᴗ䰤ˈ乘䅵2014ᑈ⏴䘧਼䕀ᬜ⥛᳝ᳯ䖯ϔℹᦤछҢˈ㗠ᦤछϧपᑫROEಲ∈ᑇDŽ݀ৌ7᳜䕀䅽ゴϬ⬉ᴎ䚼ߚ㙵ᴗˈ-20%ডњ݀ৌֱ⬭ѻϮ䫒Ḍᖗ⦃㡖ǃѻϮ䫒ᓔᬒǃ䕏䌘ѻ䖤㧹ⱘᗱ䏃ˈ乘䅵ϟञᑈᡩ䌘ᬊⲞܥ⦄ǃᇥ᭄㙵ϰᬊಲᇍ2014ᑈϮ㒽᳝ᇣᐙ८DŽ -40% KKRܹ㙵10%ᅲᮑᅠ៤ˈ׳䚼㙵ϰࡼᡩ䌘ᑊ䌁⊏⧚ᬍDŽϔˈࢳ䲚䌘䞥ࠄԡৢˈЎ݀ৌᦤկܙ≯⌕ࡼ䌘䞥ˈᇚ᳝ഄࡼᏆᓎ乍Ⳃǃᑊ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 䌁乍Ⳃⱘ䖙䗳ᅲᮑDŽѠˈ݀ৌᓩܹKKRЎ⬹ᡩ䌘㗙ḌᖗⳟЁ݊⠽㘨㔥ᱎᆊ⬉乚ඳⱘ䌘⑤ǃ⍋Ϯࡵঞᑊ䌁乚ඳⱘ㒣偠ǃᬍ䖤㧹ǃᦤछⲜ߽ⱘ㛑Ϣˈ⍋ᇨⳂࠡϧ⊼ᱎ㛑ᆊሙǃᡓ䇎ৢ㓁⊼ܹ䲚ಶ⍋䌘ѻᗱ㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ 䏃ϔ㟈DŽϝˈḍ׳䡈⍋ᇨ⬉఼ࠡᳳᓩܹ߃䳋ⱘ㒣偠ˈ݀ৌᏠᳯ䗮䖛䚼 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ 㙵ϰᅠ݀ৌ⊏⧚ˈᅠ㒽ᬜ㗗Ḍᴎࠊ▔ࢅࠊᑺˈ▔থㅵ⧚ሖ⌏DŽ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ KKR㙵ᴗ䫕ᅮᳳ3ᑈˈ乘䅵ঠᮍড়ᅲ⦄ঠ䌶ὖ⥛DŽ Ⳍᇍ≾⏅300⍼ᐙ 亢䰽㋴ᅣ˖㾖㒣⌢ࡴ䗳ϟ⒥ˈ⬹䕀ൟԢѢ乘ᳳॳ˗ᴤ᭭ӋḐᐙ⊶ࡼDŽ Ⲝ߽乘⌟ϢԄؐDŽKKR⬹ܹ㙵ᅠ៤ˈ݀ৌ᳝ᳯձ䴴KKRЄᆠ䌘⑤㒣Џ㽕᭄ 偠ࡴᖿ䚼ᑊ䌁ǃݙ䚼ᦤᬜˈৠᯊ׳ࡽ䚼㙵ϰ䞣ᅠ⦄᳝▔ࢅᴎࠊǃ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ᦤछ⊏⧚∈ᑇDŽϮ㒽〇ᅮ䭓ݐ乒㒣㧹߯ᮄϟˈञᑈ݀ৌބ⋫Ϯࡵ᳝ᳯ⦃ / ↨ᬍˈᱎ㛑ᆊሙǃĀᇣᖂāᓣㄝ߯ᮄ⬹䗤ℹ㨑ഄDŽℸˈϟञᑈᮄᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ ⱒϛ㙵 કᣕ㓁ߎ߽ད↯߽ᦤछ乘ˈ䅵ᡩ䌘ᬊⲞǃᇥ᭄㙵ϰᴗⲞᬊಲᇚᇍϮ㒽᳝䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ ᇣᐙ८ˈ乘䅵2014ᑈޔ߽䗳᳝ᳯ䖒24%Ꮊেˈ㓈ᣕ2014~2016ᑈ䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % EPSЎ % ݀ৌ2014ᑈ12סPEˈᇍᑨⳂᷛӋܗˈ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 79,857 86,488 95,950 110,231 125,434 Џ㽕㙵ϰ˄%˅ ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 3269 4168 5157 5843 6696 ⍋ᇨ⬉఼䰙㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ ⍋ᇨ䲚ಶ݀ৌ EPS˄ܗ˅ KKR Home Investment . ↯߽⥛˄%˅ % % % % % 䴦ቯ⍋ᇨ߯Ϯᡩ䌘䆶᳝䰤݀ৌ PE˄ס˅ 15 12 9 8 7 ଚ䫊㸠㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ-ܝֱᖋ 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ ֵӬ䜡㕂㙵⼼ൟ䆕ࠌᡩ䌘䞥 PB˄ס˅ ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% EV/EBITDA % % % % % 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜31᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䴦ቯ⍋ᇨ˄600690˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2014E↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2011-2014Q1ϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 4˖2011-2014Q1㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2011-2015E⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖2014H1݀ৌЏ㽕ѻક䫔䞣ӑ乱 %%%%%%%%%%ϛܗぎ䇗ބㆅ⋫㸷ᴎ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ѻϮ㒓ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ ᏖEPS PE ㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB ROE എ 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E VALUE㕢ⱘ䲚ಶ 000333 16 9 7 25 Ḑ⬉఼ 000651 8 7 6 36 GARPGROWTH⍋ֵ⾥啭 000921 9 8 7 58 A㙵 ড়㙹ϝ⋟ 600983 21 16 14 21 MOMENTUMM ᇣ吙A 000418 16 12 10 11 QUALITYM㕢㧅⬉఼ 000521 14 12 10 9 DEFENSIVEH⍋ᇨ⬉఼ 22 20 16 31 㙵 ⍋ֵ⾥啭 10 7 6 58 ⍋Whirlpool 15 13 11 18 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 Indesit 362 34 21 -1 ⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPB˗GROWTH˖ϸ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖A㙵ৃ↨݀ৌEPSЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ˈH㙵݀ৌЎWINDϔ㟈乘ᳳˈ⍋݀ৌЎᑈ乘⌟EPSCAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013Bloombergϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ˗㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜31᮹ᬊⲬӋ ⌒ᙃ⥛Q˗UALITY䖥˖ϸᑈ ROEǃROICG˗ARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕䭓∳⬉˄600900˅ ࠌⷨ お⿔㔎∈⬉啭༈ˈ䌘ѻ⊼ܹৃᳳ ਞ фܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ݀ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ৌ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍˖ ⷨⳂᷛӋ˖ܗ お ⿔㔎ᗻさߎⱘA㙵∈⬉啭༈DŽ݀ৌЏ㧹∈থ⬉Ϯࡵˈܼ䌘ᢹ᳝㨯⌆റǃЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ϝኵ⬉キˈ㺙ᴎ㾘 25,277MWЎˈݙ㾘᳔ⱘ∈⬉ϞᏖ݀ৌDŽ㙵㙵ϰЎ䭓∳ϝኵ䲚ಶᣕˈ㙵%DŽϝኵ䲚ಶ䋳䋷ᓔথǃᓎ䆒ᮄⱘ∈⬉乍⦃ਈ䴲 Ⳃˈᓎ៤ৢѸ⬅ϞᏖ݀ৌ䖤㧹DŽ ֱ⬉䆱˖021-20262101 ঞ ⦄䞥⌕〇ᅮˈ㙵ᙃ⥛催䖒5%ˈDCFԄؐᕄᰒӋؐDŽ݀ৌゴᯢ⹂ˈḍ䚂ӊ˖wf@ ݀ᔦ↡ৃߚ䜡߽⍺ⱘ65%䖯㸠⦄䞥ߚ㑶ˈ2010~2013ᑈ⦄䞥⌒ᙃ↨՟䛑SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120066 ⫼50%ҹϞ˄2~3ᑈৢ⊩ᅮǃӏᛣ݀⿃䞥ᦤ⒵ৢᇚ᳝᠔ᦤ催˅ˈⳂࠡ㙵Ӌᇍџᑨ㙵ᙃ⥛㑺5%DŽℸˈ⬅Ѣ∈⬉៤ᴀᵘ៤ЁЏ㽕Ў䴲⦄䞥ᬃߎⱘᡬᮻˈየ䳪 Ϯᬙ⦄䞥⌕〇ᅮˈড়⧚ᑨ䞛⫼DCFԄؐˈᇍᑨ↣㙵Ӌؐ㑺10ܗDŽ ⬉䆱˖021-20262124 㸠Ϯ䚂ӊ˖cuil@ ᆊറǃ⑾⋯⏵⬉キ⊼ܹਃࡼৃᳳDŽ䲚ಶᣕ㙵70%ⱘᆊറ˄6,400MWǃ˅SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010513080002 ⑾⋯⏵˄13,860MW˅ᏆѢ2014ᑈ7᳜ܼ䚼ᡩѻˈϸ乍Ⳃҹ䗕ढϰঞ फᮍഄऎЎЏৠˈᯊḌޚϞ㔥⬉Ӌܗ/kWhⳌᇍ䕗催Ⲝˈ߽㛑さ ߎDŽ㒧ড়ϝኵ䲚ಶথᏗⱘlj䙓ܡৠϮゲѝᡓ䇎ߑNJ݇ѢĀᡓ䇎Ё䭓∳ϝⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ ኵ䲚ಶ݀ৌЎ݀ৌ㙵㙵ϰᳳ䯈ϡⳈ䯈Ё๗ݙ๗Ң≾⏅300 џϢ݀ৌ㧹Ϯᠻ✻䕑ᯢⱘЏ㧹Ϯࡵᵘ៤ゲѝৃ㛑ᵘ៤ゲѝⱘϮࡵāⱘᡓЁֵ⦃ֱঞ݀⫼џϮ20 䇎ҹঞ2011ᑈ㙵ϰӮ䌘᭭ЁĀ⿃ᵕડᑨখϢ⑾⋯⏵ǃᆊറথ⬉䌘䭓∳⬉ѻᬊ䌁ᮍḜˈ䙓ܡৠϮゲѝᑊޣᇥ݇㘨Ѹᯧāⱘ䰜䗄ˈϞ䗄⬉キ䌘ѻ⊼ܹ10 ਃࡼৃҹᳳᕙDŽ 0 130725131125140325140 䲚ಶĀ9Ͼϝኵā䅵ߦˈ݀ৌ䭓ᳳথሩࠡ᱃ᑓ䯨DŽϝኵ䲚ಶ2014ᑈ-10 ЁᎹӮ䆂ᣛߎˈᇚϝኵ䲚ಶᠧ䗴៤ࣙᣀĀ9Ͼϝኵā˄5Ͼൟ∈⬉キǃ⍋ϝኵǃ䌘ᴀϝኵ亢⬉ϝኵㄝ˅ݙⱘᮄൟ⦄ҷǃᆊ࣪ӕϮDŽ-20 䰸Ꮖᡩѻⱘᆊറǃ⑾⋯⏵ˈϝኵ䲚ಶℷ䖯㸠䞥≭∳ϟ␌Рϰᖋ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ˄8,700MWǃ˅ⱑ吸Ⓗ˄12,000MW˅⬉キⱘࠡᳳᎹDŽℸˈ䲚ಶ⿃ᵕখϢ⍋∈⬉ᓔথϢˈ֘∈⬉݀ৌㅒ㕆њ݅ৠᓔথ䰓〚ᇨ⊇ᬃ⌕∈⬉キⱘ㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ ড়ण䆂DŽ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ 亢䰽㋴DŽᴹ∈ᚙމᇚއᅮ݀ৌᑈᑺϮ㒽˗∈䌘⑤䌍ǃؐ䖨䖬ঞ⿏⇥㒱ᇍ⍼䎠ᐙ 㸹ٓ䌍ㄝᬓㄪবࡼᇚᕅડ݀ৌ䭓ᳳⲜ߽DŽ Ⳍᇍ≾⏅300 Ⲝ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐᡩ䌘䆘㑻DŽ៥Ӏ㓈ᣕ݀ৌ2014̚2016ᑈ ܗⱘⲜ߽乘⌟ˈⳂࠡ㙵ӋᇍᑨP/EЎ 10,000ܗ/kWֱᅜ䅵ㅫˈ݀ৌ䞡ԄP/BЎסDŽ≾␃䗮ㄝᬓㄪ㚠᱃≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ϟˈ݀ৌЎ∈⬉ҷ㸼ⱘ⿔㔎ሲᗻさߎϮˈ㒽ফ㒣⌢ᕅડ䕗ᇣ㒧ˈড়DCF16500/8746 Ԅؐ㑺ܗǃ⦄Ӌᇍᑨ㙵ᙃ⥛䖥5%ҹঞᓊᓣᠽᓴ乘ᳳˈ㒭ќ݊ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ ⱒϛ㙵 ܗⳂᷛӋˈ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ 䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ 乍Ⳃ䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % /ᑈᑺ 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 25,782 22,698 25,422 25,422 25,422 Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅10,352 9,071 10,642 10,761 10,201 ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ EPS˄ܗ˅ Џ㽕㙵ϰ˄%˅ ↯߽⥛˄%˅ Ё䭓∳ϝኵ䲚ಶ݀ৌ PE ЁḌᎹϮ䲚ಶ݀ৌ 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ Ё⊍✊⇨䲚ಶ݀ৌ PB˄ס˅ ढ㛑䰙⬉㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% Ёᑇ⋟Ҏᇓֱ䰽㙵ӑ᳝ EV/ 䰤݀ৌ-Ӵ㒳-᱂䗮ֱ䰽ѻક 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䭓∳⬉˄600900˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹᵘ៤ 2˖2014E↯߽ᵘ៤ 3˖2012-2016Eϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ 䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ଂ⬉ᬊܹ݊Ҫଂ⬉↯߽݊Ҫ%ㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛%䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⥛%%%%%%% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 4˖2012-2016E㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2012-2016E⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖ϝኵܹᑧ⌕䞣˄m3/s˅ ⌕ࡼ↨⥛˄Ꮊ˅㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕ޔ乱˄ⱒϛĂ20122013ROE˄᨞㭘˅䗳ࡼ↨⥛˄Ꮊ˅2014ᑨᬊ䋺ℒ਼䕀᭄˄˅22,000 15%50,000 100%30 ᄬ䋻਼䕀᭄˄˅21,000 40,000 20 20,000 10%50%30,000 19,000 10 18,000 5%20,000 17,000 0%-10,000 16,000 0%-1᳜4᳜7᳜10᳜ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ϝኵ䲚ಶ㔥キˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ ᏖEPS PE ㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB ROE എ 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E VALUEᡩ⬉ 600886 % Ꮁᡩ㛑⑤ 600674 % A GARPGROWTHḖݴ⬉ 600236 % 㙵 咨⑤⬉ 002039 % ढ⬉⽣ᮄ 0816 % QUALITYMOMENTUMH 啭⑤⬉ 0916 % 㙵 DEFENSIVESouthern SO % Company ⍋NextEra NEE % Energy 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼㙵˖Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗ৃ↨݀ৌEPS⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPBG˗ROWTH˖ϸЎWindϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ ᑈ乘⌟EPSCAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕ࠌϞ≑䲚ಶ˄600104˅ ⷨお Ԅ᳝ؐӬˈᬍ䴽߯ᮄؐᕫᳳᕙ ਞ ݀ ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜фܹ19᮹ ৌ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ⷨᡩ䌘㽕⚍˖ ⳂᷛӋ˖ܗ お Ёҡ໘Ѣ≑䔺⍜䌍᱂ঞᳳˈ乘䅵ᴹ2-3ᑈЬ⫼䔺ᇚ㓈ᣕ8-10%ᎺেЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⱘ䕗ᖿ䭓DŽЁ≑䔺Ꮦഎ2000ᑈ̢2010ᑈᳳ䯈ᰃ催䗳䭓ᳳˈᑈ ≑ড়䗳䍙䖛25%˗2011ᑈҹৢ䗤⏤䖯ܹᑇ〇䭓ᳳˈ乘䅵┰䭓Ё䔺䆌㣅म ᵶЎ8-10%ˈЏ㽕偅ࡼ㋴Ў˖1˅Ѡϝ㒓ഄऎⱘᮄ䳔∖ˈ2˅ϔ㒓ഄ㸠⬉䆱˖010-60838704 ऎⱘᤶ䌁䳔∖DŽৠᯊˈЁ䖲㓁Ѩᑈ៤Ўܼ⧗≑䔺䫔䞣᳔ⱘᆊˈ㗗㰥Ϯ䚂ӊ˖xuyb@ ᭄䕗催ঞᅣ㾖㒣⌢ᬒ㓧ⱘᢙᖻˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵2014ᑈ≑䔺䫔䞣䗳ಲ㨑㟇SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120041 9%Ꮊেˈ݊Ё⍜䌍ሲᗻⱘЬ⫼䔺ҡᇚֱᣕ10%ҹϞⱘ䕗ᖿ䭓DŽ ݀ৌ2015ᑈ䖯ܹᮄϔ䕂ѻકᡩᬒᳳˈᴹ2-3ᑈⲜ߽ᇚ㓈ᣕ〇ع䭓DŽ䰜֞᭠ Ϟ⍋ӫϞ⍋䗮⫼ᴹ3ᑈݙ᳝ᳯߎ21ℒᮄ䔺ᤶҷ䔺ൟˈ݊ЁϞ⬉䆱˖010-60836703 ⍋ӫᇚߎℒᮄ䔺བˈNMC˄A+㑻䕓䔺ǃ˅ܼᮄA㑻䕓䔺ǃB㑻SUVǃC㑻䕓䔺ㄝ˗Ϟ⍋䗮⫼Ѻᇚߎ߿ܟA㑻SUVǃ߃䖾ᢝܟC㑻䕓䔺ㄝᮄ䚂ӊ˖chenjb@ 䔺ൟˈҹঞ৯࿕ǃ৯䍞ǃ䖜䫤ᅱㄝ䞡䞣㑻䔺ൟᇚᮄᤶҷDŽ៥Ӏ乘䅵݀ৌSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512070001 ᇚѢ2015ᑈ䖯ܹᮄϔ䕂៤䭓ᳳ䫔ˈ䞣ড়䗳䍙䖛10%ˈޔ߽⍺䗳催催ⱏ Ѣ䫔䞣䗳DŽ ⬉䆱˖010-60836729 ᮄㅵ⧚ሖᬍ䴽߯ᮄㄝᮍ䴶ⱘ㋶ؐᕫᳳᕙDŽ5᳜23᮹ˈ݀ৌ䗝В䰜㱍Ўᮄϔӏ㨷џ䭓˗4᳜28᮹ˈϞ⍋㒘㒛䚼݀ਞ㘬ӏ䰜ᖫ䨿Ўᮄϔӏᘏ䚂ӊ˖gaodeng@ 㺕ˈㅵ⧚ሖᤶሞ䇗ᭈᇬ㨑ᅮDŽᮄㅵ⧚ሖㅵ⧚ǃއㄪǃᬍ䴽ǃ▔ࢅǃᮄSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010514070004 Ϯࡵㄝᮍ䴶ⱘ㋶ؐᕫᳳᕙDŽ䔺ѿ㔥Ϟ㒓ǃϢ䰓䞠ᏈᏈড়ㄝԧ⦄ᮄϔӏⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ ㅵ⧚ሖᇍ߯ᮄⱘ⿃ᵕ㋶㊒⼲DŽৠᯊϞˈ≑䲚ಶЎϞ⍋Ꮦ䌘ྨⳈሲⱘ≾⏅300᳔ӕϮˈ᳝ᳯ៤Ўӕᬍ䴽ⱘᷛᴚӕϮˈᇚ᳝߽Ѣᦤछ݀ৌ㒣㧹ᬜ⥛ˈ40Ёֵ≑䔺ޔ߽⍺᳝ᳯ㓈ᣕℷᐌ䭓DŽ㗗㰥㙵ᴗ▔ࢅⱘᕅડˈ݀ৌㅵ⧚ሖᇍ㙵Ӌⱘ݇Ϟ≑䲚ಶ⊼ᑺᦤ催ˈ᳝ᳯᦤछ݀ৌԄؐ∈ᑇDŽ 20 ݀ৌᔧࠡԄؐ໘Ѣܼ⧗≑䔺㸠ϮԢԡˈ≾␃䗮ㄝA㙵䌘ᴀᏖഎᓔᬒ䖯ࡴᖿˈᇚ᳝ࡽ݀ৌԄؐᦤछDŽϞ≑䲚ಶⳂࠡԄؐҙЎ2014ᑈ7סPEˈ0໘Ѣ݀ৌԄؐⱘग़ϟ䰤Ѻˈ໘Ѣܼ⧗≑䔺㸠ϮⱘԢԡDŽЁᰃܼ⧗ԧ䞣130726᳔ǃ䗳᳔ᖿⱘЏ⌕≑䔺Ꮦഎˈᴹ3ᑈҡ᳝ᳯֱᣕ8%Ꮊেⱘ䕗ᖿ(20)䭓DŽϞ≑䲚ಶᏖഎഄԡ〇ˈߚ㑶ᬊⲞ⥛催䖒8%ҹϞˈᇍ↨⍋Џ⌕≑ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 䔺䲚ಶ᳝ᯢᰒⱘԄؐӬDŽ≾␃䗮ㄝA㙵䌘ᴀᏖഎᓔᬒ䖯ࡴᖿˈᇚ᳝ࡽ݀ৌԄؐᦤछDŽ 㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ 亢䰽㋴Ϟ˖⍋ӫᮄ䔺ൟᏖഎফᑺԢѢ乘ᳳϞ˗≑㞾Џક⠠ѣᤳᐙᑺᣕ㓁ࡴ˗䚼ߚජᏖ≑䔺ߎ䰤䌁ǃ䰤㸠ᬓㄪᇐ㟈≑䔺㸠Ϯ䗳ᬒ㓧ㄝDŽ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ 㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ Ⲝ߽乘⌟ϢԄؐ˖㓈ᣕ݀ৌ2014/15ᑈEPS乘⌟ߚ߿Ў ˄2013ᑈEPS ЎܗDŽ˅ᔧࠡӋܗˈߚ߿ᇍᑨ2014/15ᑈ7/6סPEDŽ݀ৌ䖯ܹᮄϔ䕂ѻકᡩᬒ਼ᳳ2ˈ015ᑈ᳝ᳯ䖯ܹᮄⱘ៤䭓ᳳ˗ᮄ ϔӏㅵ⧚ሖᬍ䴽߯ᮄⱘ⬹ᗱ䏃ؐᕫᳳᕙDŽ䱣ⴔ≾␃䗮ᓔ䗮Aˈ㙵䌘Џ㽕᭄ ᴀᏖഎᓔᬒ䖯ࡴᖿˈϞ≑䲚ಶⳌᇍܼ⧗Џ⌕≑䔺݀ৌ᳝ᯢᰒԄؐӬ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ˈԄׂؐࡼ䕗ᔎDŽ㒧ড়㸠ϮԄؐ∈ᑇˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ݀ৌড়⧚ԄؐЎ11026 /9242 ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ 2014ᑈ8-10סPEˈ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻ˈⳂᷛӋ22ܗDŽ ⱒϛ㙵 乍Ⳃ䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ /ᑈᑺ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 434,804 480,980 565,807 616,730 696,904 䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ 䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 20,222 20,752 24,804 27,317 31,479Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ EPS˄ܗ˅ ↯߽⥛˄%˅ Џ㽕㙵ϰ˄%˅ PE 10 9 8 7 6 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ Ϟ⍋≑䔺ᎹϮ(䲚ಶ)ᘏ݀ৌ PB˄ס˅ 䎗䖯≑䔺䲚ಶ݀ৌ ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% Ϟ⍋≑䔺ᎹϮ᳝䰤݀ৌ EV/EBITDA ঠ吁ቅ⍺⾥ᅲϮ݀ৌ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ ЁҎᇓֱ䰽݀ৌ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
Ϟ≑䲚ಶ˄600104˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2014E↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2011-2015Eϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ 䌌ᯧ, 䞥㵡, 䌌ᯧ䞥㵡, , 䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛%%%%ㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛%݊Ҫ, 䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⥛݊Ҫ, %䳊䚼%%ӊ, %䳊䚼%ӊ, %ᭈ䔺, %ᭈ䔺, %%%% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 4˖2011-2015E㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2011-2015E⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖㸠ϮᏖഎḐሔ ᄬ䋻਼䕀᭄(ে䕈)㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕˄ⱒϛܗ˅Ь⫼䔺㸠Ϯ䫔䞣˄ϛ䕚˅ᑨᬊ䋺ℒ਼䕀᭄(ে䕈)ROE˄%˅䗳˄%˅⌕ࡼ↨⥛˄Ꮊ䕈˅䗳ࡼ↨⥛˄Ꮊ䕈˅140%3030,00020%2,50020%2,204 2,004 120%2525,00019%2,0001,792 15%100%1,549 2020,0001,450 %18%1,50080%1515,%10%60%17%1,%1010,00040%5%%16%50055,00020%%0%0015%00%2011201220132014E2015E2011201220132014E2015E2011201220132014E2015E 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CAAMˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ ᏖEPS PE ㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB ROE VALUEഎ 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E 䭓ජ≑䔺 GARPGROWTH䭓ᅝ≑䔺 A Ё䞡≑ 㙵 ∳䪗≑䔺 QUALITYMOMENTUMᅛ䗮ᅶ䔺 H ϰ亢䲚ಶ DEFENSIVE㙵 䭓ජ≑䔺 ⍋Є⬄≑䔺 574 594 618 ⽣⡍≑䔺 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈBloombergˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPBG˗ROWTH˖ϸৃ↨݀ৌEPSЎBloombergϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ ᑈ乘⌟EPSCAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕⾺䪕䏃˄601006˅ ࠌⷨ 乘ᳳ㙵ᙃ⥛छ㟇10%, おԄؐᔍछぎ䯈ᰒ㨫 ਞ݀фܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ৌ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ⷨᡩ䌘㽕⚍ ⳂᷛӋ˖10ܗ お ݙ䪕䏃✸䖤啭༈ӕϮDŽ⾺䪕䏃ᰃЁϔᆊҹ䪕䏃㔥ḌᖗЏᑆ㒓Ў݀Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ৌЏԧⱘ㙵ӑ݀ৌˈㅵ䕪᳝Ҁࣙǃ࣫ৠ㪆ǃ⾺ϝᴵ䪕䏃ᑆ㒓ˈҹঞಯᴵ Ѹ䪕䏃ᬃ㒓ಯᴵഄᮍ䪕䏃DŽ݀ৌгᰃЁϔᴵऩܗ⬉⇨࣪䞡䕑䖤✸ϧ߬ℷ 䗮㒓ˈܼ䪕䏃✸䖤Ꮦഎऴ᳝⥛䖒20%DŽॳ䪕䏃ሔᰃ݀ৌⱘ㙵㙵ϰˈ䖤⬉䆱˖021-20262119 ᣕ㙵↨՟%Ёˈ䪕䏃ᘏ݀ৌЎ݊ᅲ䰙ࠊҎDŽ݀ৌЏ㧹Ϯࡵࣙᣀ䋻䕧䚂ӊ˖zhengliu@ 䖤ᅶ䖤ˈ݊Ёҹ䋻䖤ЎЏˈ2013ᑈЏ㧹ᬊܹЁऴ↨75%ҹϞˈܼᑈ㸠䋻⠽থ䗕䞣ऴܼ䪕䏃䋻䖤Ꮦഎⱘ14%DŽSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010511080004 Ϯ Ϟञᑈޔ߽⍺᳝ᳯ䍙乘ᳳDŽ⾺㒓✸⚁䖤䞣Ѡᄷᑺৠ↨䭓%ˈ䗳㢣ᅱ҂ 䍙ߎ៥Ӏ乘ᳳDŽℸˈ䋻䖤䖤Ӌৼ݀䞠ᑇഛᦤछњߚˈ៥ӀԄㅫ䖤Ӌ⬉䆱˖010-60838727 䖤䞣ᦤछᇚࡴ݀ৌᬊܹ㑺13-15ғܗ㗗ˈ㰥ғܗҎᎹ៤ᴀ䭓5ғܗؐᕅડˈ乘䅵䋵⤂ޔ߽⍺-6ғܗˈℸˈ乘䅵᳨咘㒓ᡩ䌘䚂ӊ˖subl@ ᬊⲞᇚࡴ㑺1ғܗˈᇍᑨѠᄷᑺޔ߽⍺䭓ऎ䯈Ў-7ғܗDŽℸˈSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512050002 ៥Ӏ⌟ㅫ݀ৌϞञᑈ݀ৌޔ߽⍺ऎ䯈-73ғܗˈᇍᑨEPSऎ䯈Ў਼֞ ܗˈᯢᰒ䍙ߎ៥Ӏℸࠡܗⱘ乘ᳳ∈ᑇDŽ 乘ᳳ㙵ᙃᬊⲞ⥛䍙10%DŽ݀ৌ↣ᑈ㒣㧹⌏ࡼѻ⫳ⱘ⦄䞥⌕䞣ޔ乱催䖒150⬉䆱˖010-60836757 ғܗᎺেˈࠨ䰸᮹ᐌ㒣㧹᠔䳔⦄䞥⌕ҹঞ᮹ᐌ䌘ᴀᓔᬃৢˈԄㅫ݊Ё㑺䚂ӊ˖zhou_jun@ 100ғܗ㛑⫼Ѣ㙵ϰ⌒থ⦄䞥㑶߽DŽℸˈ䪕䏃ᘏ݀ৌࡴᡩ䌘㾘SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010513060001 催䋳؎य़ѳ䳔㾷އ⦄䞥䯂乬ˈᄬᦤछ⾺䪕䏃ߚ㑶⥛䳔∖DŽḍⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ 100ғܗⱘৃߚ㑶⦄䞥㾘⌟ㅫˈᣝ✻݀ৌ2014ᑈ乘ᳳޔ߽⍺᭄ˈᇍ36%ᑨⱘߚ㑶⥛㑺70%DŽ2015ᑈޔ߽⍺؛䆒ϟ6ˈ0%/70%ߚ㑶⥛ᇍᑨⱘ㙵ᙃ≾⏅300䪕䏃(Ёֵ)⾺䪕䏃26%ᬊⲞ⥛ߚ߿Ў10%/%DŽ 16% ≾␃䗮㚠᱃ϟԄؐᔍछぎ䯈ᯢᰒDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᅮᬊⲞ㒘䅸Ўϟञᑈ6%कᑈᳳ؎ᬊⲞ⥛ᇚϟ㸠㟇%䰘䖥ˈᇍѢ⾺䪕䏃㉏؎ࠌᗻ䋼ⱘᷛⱘ-4%᳝Ԅؐᦤछ⫼DŽЎ䪕䏃㸠Ϯ啭༈ˈ݀ৌ᳝ൟ⿔㔎ᗻˈ≾␃䗮ᓔ䗮ৢˈ催㙵ᙃ⥛ⱘ⾺䪕䏃᳝ᳯ㦋ᕫ催ԄؐDŽ݀ৌ㙵ᙃ⥛〇ᅮˈḌᖗ㒓䏃⾺㒓ғৼᎺে〇ᅮⱘ䋻䖤䞣ᦤկњϮ㒽ᬃᩥЄˈ≯ⱘ⦄䞥⌕Ўᣕ㓁 催ߚ㑶ᦤկњֱ䱰DŽЎ๗䌘䞥ᡩ䌘佪䗝ᷛⱘˈ؛䆒݀ৌ乘ᳳ㙵ᙃᬊⲞ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⥛Ң10%䰡Ԣ㟇5%∈ᑇˈ߭݀ৌԄؐᇚ᳝ϔסⱘᦤछぎ䯈DŽ 亢䰽㋴DŽ✸⚁㛑⑤⍜䌍↨䞡↨՟ϟ⒥˗䪕䏃䞠ࡴৃ㛑ᏺᴹߚ⌕DŽ 㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ Ⲝ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻DŽѢϮ㒽᳝ᳯ䍙乘ᳳˈ6%ҹϞⱘ催㙵ᙃ⥛ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ ᳝ᳯݡᑺᦤछˈ≾␃䗮ߌᰒ݊A㙵⿔᳝ᗻˈ㓈ᣕ݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟Ў㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ 2014-2016ᑈ 7/6/6ס乘ˈᳳ݀ৌߚ㑶⥛ᦤछ㟇60-70%ϟⱘ㙵ᙃᬊⲞ⥛ᇚ䖒10%Ꮊেˈᐙ ≾␃䗮ेᇚᓔ䗮㚠᱃ϟˈ݀ৌ㙵ᙃᬊⲞ⥛᳝ᳯ䗤⏤ಲ㨑㟇5-6%∈ᑇDŽ Ў㉏؎ࠌᷛⱘˈ؎ᬊⲞ⥛ϟ㸠гᇚछ݀ৌԄؐDŽ៥Ӏ㓈ᣕ݀ৌĀфЏ㽕᭄ ܹā䆘㑻ˈⳂᷛӋ10ܗˈᇍᑨ2014ᑈޔ߽⍺60%ߚ㑶⥛ϟⱘ㙵ᙃᬊⲞ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ⥛㑺6%DŽ ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ ⱒϛ㙵 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 45,962 51,343 54,737 59,672 62,460 䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ 䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 11,503 12,692 14,439 16,595 16,941 Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 207ⱒϛܗ EPS˄ܗ˅ ↯߽⥛˄%˅ PE 9 8 7 6 6 Џ㽕㙵ϰ˄%˅ 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ ॳ䪕䏃ሔ PB˄ס˅ Ёᑇ⋟Ҏᇓֱ䰽㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% ܼ⼒Ӯֱ䱰䞥⧚џӮ EV/EBITDA 7 6 5 5 4 Ёᑇ⋟Ҏᇓֱ䰽㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ ⊇࣫␃ষ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 130729130819130909131009131030131120131211140102140123140220140313140403140425140520140611140702140723
⾺䪕䏃˄601006˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2014E↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2012-2016Eϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ 䋻䖤ᅶ䖤݊Ҫ䋻䖤ᅶ䖤݊Ҫ㧹Ϯ䌍⫼⥛ㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⥛7%13%3%6%15%5%10%4%3%2%77%1%82%0%201220132014E2015E2016E-1% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 4˖2012-2016E㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2012-2016E⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖㸠ϮᏖഎḐሔ ⌕ࡼ↨⥛䗳ࡼ↨⥛㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕˄ⱒϛܗ˅䪕䏃㸠ϮᏖഎ㾘˄ⱒϛܗ˅ᄬ䋻਼䕀᭄ᑨᬊ䋺ℒ਼䕀᭄ROEৠ↨䭓⥛ 25 20000 19%10000025% 18000 9000018%20 16000 8000020%14000 7000018% 12000 6000015%15 10000 17%500008000 4000010%17%10 6000 4000 16%200005% 2000 5 100000 16% 00% 0 201220132014E2015E2016E 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ ᏖEPS PE ㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB ROE എ 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E VALUE䪕啭⠽⌕ 600125 16 15 12 8,9 A㙵 ᑓ⏅䪕䏃 601333 15 14 13 GARPGROWTHH㙵 ᑓ⏅䪕䏃 16 11 10 ᑓ⏅䪕䏃 16 16 15 MMOOMMEENNTTUUM ⍋ 㘨ড়ᑇ 20 19 16 M⋟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈBloombergˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗DEFENSIVEA㙵ৃ↨݀ৌഛЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼Ꮖ㽚Ⲫ݀ৌEˈPSЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟˗㽚Ⲫৃ↨݀ৌEPS ᴹ㞾Wind˄ᑓ⏅䪕䏃Ў␃㙵˅Bloombergϔ㟈乘ᳳ˄⍋㙵˅˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPB˗GROWTH˖ϸᑈ乘⌟EPS CAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕ࠌ䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄ˄600519˅ ⷨお Ϯ㒽䗳ᑇ〇ˈ乚㹪⇨䋼ߌᰒ ਞ ݀фܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ৌ ⷨᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ おⳂᷛӋ˖ܗ Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 亳 ݀ৌὖމ˖ݙ催ḷⱑ䜦ϔક⠠DŽ䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄ៤ゟѢ1999ᑈˈ2001ᑈકϞ⍋ЏᵓϞᏖЏˈ㧹㣙ৄ䜦㋏߫ѻકⱘ⫳ѻ䫔ଂDŽ݀ৌᰃݙ催ッⱑ咘Ꭱ 佂䜦ϔક⠠ˈ䝅佭ൟⱑ䜦ⱘൟҷ㸼DŽ2013ᑈ݀ৌ㧹Ϯᬊܹ309ғܗˈ亳ક佂᭭㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤᏜ ᭭ޔ߽⍺151ғܗDŽ2014ᑈϔᄷᑺᬊܹғܗˈৠ↨ࡴ4%ˈᅲ⦄㸠⬉䆱˖0755-23835393 ᔦሲ↡݀ৌޔ߽⍺37ғܗˈৠ↨䭓3%DŽ Ϯ䚂ӊ˖whuang@ 㸠Ϯὖމ˖㸠Ϯᭈԧҡ䕗Ԣ䗋ˈӬ䋼啭༈Ꮖ⥛ܜ䍄ߎԢ䈋DŽ2013ᑈ䜦㉏SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120026 䙁ফग़Ԣ⚍ˈফĀϝ݀⍜䌍āᕅડˈⱑ䜦ᴀਜ⦄ऩ䖍ϟ䎠䍟2ˈ013 ᑈ㸠Ϯᬊܹ߽⍺ഛਜ⦄ߎ䋳䭓DŽԚⳂࠡ催ッⱑ䜦Ꮖ㒣ᴀᅲ⦄ӋḐᇏᑩDŽ啭༈ӕϮક⠠ǃ䌘䞥⏴䘧ㄝᮍ䴶ᕔᕔ᳝ゲѝˈ᭭ᇚᴹ㘨㋏Ҏ˖䰜Ṻ⩊ ᭈড়䖛Ёय़ᇣӕϮˈ㦋ᕫᏖഎӑ乱Ң㗠ᅲ⦄䭓DŽ ⬉䆱˖0755-23835390 ݀ৌߚᵤ˖ऩᄷᬊܹ䭓ҡӮᑇ〇DŽ3%ᬊܹⳂᷛⴔⴐ݀ৌ䭓ᳳথሩDŽ䚂ӊ˖chenmengyao@ এᑈQ1Ϯࡵ㒧ᵘЁᑈӑ䜦ҡ✊᳝ϔᅮӑ乱Ҟˈᑈϔᄷᑺ᱂䗮㣙ৄⱘ⛁䫔 ᔶ៤Ϯࡵ㒧ᵘ䰡㑻㾕ᑩ䱣ˈⴔ݀ৌᮄಶ䌁ᑈӑ䜦䜡ଂ᱂䗮䜦ӑ乱ᬓㄪᅮࠊ䜦ߎˈϮࡵ㒧ᵘৢ㓁᭭Ӯ㓧᜶छ㑻DŽ⬅Ѣ2013ᑈQ2ᬊܹ70ғˈⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ Ϩᔧᳳ乘ᬊ8ғ⦃↨䰡20ғˈℸԄ䅵ҞᑈѠᄷᑺᬊܹҡᇚᑇ〇DŽ2014≾⏅300䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄᑈ㣙ৄᬊܹⳂᷛ䭓3%ˈখ✻ᕔᑈϟ䰡ᐙᑺᯢᰒDŽ㣙ৄ䗮䖛䰡Ӌᦤछ䫔ⱑ䜦ċ(Ёֵ)䞣ˈᎽњ900ܗ䰘䖥催ッ䜦ӑ乱DŽ㣙ৄҞᑈԢᬊܹⱘ䭓ⳂᷛՓ݊ৃ20%ҹҢᆍ䴶ᇍ㸠Ϯⱘ䇗ᭈᳳ㗠ˈϡ䳔㽕ᇍѻકӋḐԧ㋏㒣䫔ଚ䌘⑤䖯㸠乱10%ⱘࡼDŽҞᑈᔶ៤њ㣙ৄ䞡㾚ӫᏖഎ⍜䌍ˈϨℷᐌ乎Ӌ䫔ଂৢˈৃ0%-10%⒵䎇ᴹⱘ〇ᅮ䭓ˈ䗳᳝ᳯಲࠄЁ䗳ऎ䯈DŽ -20% ݀ৌߚᵤ˖䲚ಶᬍ䴽ϝℹⳂᷛˈ㙵ӑ݀ৌջ䞡䫔ଂሖ䴶DŽ㣙ৄ䲚ಶᬍ䴽ߚ-30%ϝℹ˖ⷁᳳⳟˈخѻક㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈ˗ЁᳳⳟˈⳟѻϮ㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈ˗䭓ᳳⳟˈⳟ-40%72420131024201312420144242014ѻᴗ㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈDŽ㙵ӑⱘᬍ䴽᭭ᇚջ䞡䫔ଂሖ䴶ˈབᅮࠊ䜦䫔ଂǃ㋏߫䜦䫔 ଂ㒣䫔⏴䘧ㄝᮍ䴶䗮ˈ䖛㙵ӑࠊᓩܹড়ӭԈˈৃҹࡴᔎᏖഎⱘᢧሩ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⏅㗩ˈࡴ䫔ଂ㾘Ꮦഎӑ乱DŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ㣙ৄ䜦ⱘ䫔ଂᏆ៤ԧ㋏ˈ䫔ଂऎඳⱘᬍ䴽ᅮࠊ䜦㋏߫䜦ᮍ䴶ⱘᬜᵰӮᯢᰒDŽ 㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ 亢䰽㋴˖ⱑ䜦㸠Ϯ䇗ᭈ⏅࣪ᇍѻક㒧ᵘᕅડࡴ࠻DŽ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ 㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ Ⲝ߽乘⌟ϢԄؐDŽ㓈ᣕ乘⌟݀ৌ2014-2016ᑈEPSЎǃܗ˄2013ᑈЎܗDŽ˅㸠Ϯ䇗ᭈҡᇚᓊ㓁Ⳍᇍ≾⏅300⍼ᐙ 1-2ᑈⱘ乘ᳳϟˈ 㣙ৄ㒣㧹〇عˈ乘ᳳ〇ᅮˈӕᬍ䴽ҹঞ⍜䌍ᕄᰒӫ࣪ሲᗻ⡍ᕕˈгড ߎⱑ䜦⍜䌍ⱘড়⧚⡍ᕕĀᯎᄷᯎˈ⎵ᄷ⎵āˈ㔎Уᬓଚࡵ䳔∖ᬃᩥЏ㽕᭄ ৢˈ㒜ッ⍜䌍ᇚЏ㽕䲚ЁѢ㡖؛᮹ހᄷᅠ៤DŽড়⧚Ԅؐ15סˈᇍᑨⳂ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ᷛӋ210ܗˈ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ ᘏ㙵ᴀ 1, ⱒϛ㙵 ⌕䗮㙵ᴀ 1, ⱒϛ㙵 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 18402 26455 30922 32180 35832 䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ % % % % % 䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 8763 13308 16175 18170 20843 Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ % % % % % 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ EPS˄ܗ˅ ↯߽⥛˄%˅ % % % % % PE Џ㽕㙵ϰᚙމ 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ Ё䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄ䜦ॖ˄䲚ಶ᳝˅䰤䋷 PB˄ס˅% ӏ݀ৌ ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% % % % % % 䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄ䜦ॖ䲚ಶᡔᴃᓔথ݀ৌ % EV/EBITDA ᯧᮍ䖒䌘ѻㅵ⧚˄佭␃᳝˅䰤݀ৌ % 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䌉Ꮂ㣙ৄ˄600519˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2014E↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2011-2015Eϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ 䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛_%ㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛_%㣙ৄ䜦㋏߫䜦㣙ৄ䜦㋏߫䜦䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⥛_%7%5%1086420-2,95%-493% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 4˖2011-2015E㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2011-2015E⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖ 㸠ϮᏖഎḐሔ ⌕ࡼ↨⥛䗳ࡼ↨⥛㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕(ⱒϛ)ROE˄%˅ᄬ䋻਼䕀᭄ᑨᬊ䋺ℒ਼䕀᭄2000034321000%250015000800%20003010000600%150028400%1000500026200%5000%0024 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᆊ㒳䅵ሔ 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ EPS PE ROEᏖഎ ㅔ⿄ PB % 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E ⋟⊇㙵ӑ ⋌Ꮂ㗕な Ѩ㊂⎆ 㙵 㗕ⱑᑆ䜦 ቅ㽓≒䜦 সѩ䋵䜦 ᒋᏜٙ㙵 㙵 㒳ϔӕϮЁ ᏱѮঢ় ⍋ ৃষৃФ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼㙵˖Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗ৃ↨݀ৌEPS䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖VALUE˖Ўϛᕫϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ 2014E PEǃPB˗GROWTH˖ϸᑈ乘⌟EPS CAGRM˗OMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙ˗DEFENSIVE˖2014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛Q˗UALITY䖥˖ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕ଚ䫊㸠˄˅ ࠌⷨ おѠ䕀ൟ䖯ˈⲜ߽〇ᅮ䭓 ਞфܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ݀ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ৌ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍˖ ⷨⳂᷛӋ˖13ܗ お ݀ৌᰃ㗕⠠䳊ଂൟ䫊㸠DŽ݀ৌ៤ゟѢ1987ᑈˈᰃЁ๗ݙϔᆊᅠܼ⬅Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ӕϮ⊩Ҏᣕ㙵ⱘ㙵ӑࠊଚϮ䫊㸠гˈᰃᆊҢԧࠊࡼ䫊㸠Ϯᬍ䴽ⱘ ϔᆊ䆩⚍䫊㸠DŽⳂࠡ݀ৌᏆথሩ៤Ў䌘ᴀޔ乱䍙䖛2000ғǃ䌘ѻᘏ乱䖥䫊ᴅ⨄ 4ϛғǃᴎᵘ㔥⚍䍙䖛900ᆊǃਬᎹ䖥5ϛҎⱘܼᗻ㙵ӑࠊଚϮ䫊㸠ˈ㸠⬉䆱˖010-60838601 ᑊ䏏䑿ܼ⧗ࠡ100ᆊ䫊㸠П߫DŽ Ϯ䚂ӊ˖zhuy@ ଚϮ䫊㸠ᰃЁ䞥㵡ԧ㋏ⱘḌᖗˈֵ䌋㒧ᵘ䇗ᭈǃܗ䞥㵡᳡ࡵㄝሖSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120023 䴶Ϟ᳝ᑓ䯨থሩぎ䯈DŽଚϮ䫊㸠ᰃЁ䞥㵡ԧ㋏ⱘḌᖗˈ䖛এⱘ10ᑈ䯈ܙߚߚѿњ⇥㒣⌢ⱘᖿ䗳থሩгˈপᕫ䍙䍞⼒Ӯᑇഛⱘ䌘ѻ߽⍺㙪᭤᭤ 䭓䗳ᑺDŽᔧࠡˈ㒣⌢䕀ൟ䞥㵡ᬍ䴽៤ЎᎹ䞡ᖗˈଚϮ䫊㸠䴶Јᬊܹ⬉䆱˖010-60838047 ッ亢䰽ッⱘঠ䞡य़DŽ䖭⾡㚠᱃ϟˈᆊ䫊㸠ձ㞾䑿⽔䌟ࠊᅮњϡ䚂ӊ˖xff@ ৠⱘ⬹ˈᑨᇍᮄⱘ㒣㧹ᔶDŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ݊Ё䕀ൟ⬹⏙᱄ǃϮࡵ⡍㡆SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120057 剰ᯢⱘ݀ৌ㛑᳔㒜㚰ߎDŽ 䖯Āϸᇣā㒣㧹⬹䕀ൟˈⲜ߽ᬜᑨᰒ㨫ࡴDŽ݀ৌ2012ᑈᓔྟ䖯Āϸᇣā㒣㧹ㄪ⬹ⱘ䕀ൟˈेᇍ݀ϮࡵЁࡴ3000ϛҹϟⱘЁᇣൟӕϮⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ 䌋ℒऴ↨ˈ䳊ଂϮࡵЁ䖯500ϛҹϟⱘᇣᖂൟӕϮ䌋ℒऴ↨˗Ⳃࠡᴹ≾⏅300㙵ӑࠊ䫊㸠(Ёֵ)ⳟˈϮࡵ䕀ൟᓔྟᇍѢⲜ߽ѻ⫳ᰒ㨫䋵⤂DŽ2014ᑈ1ᄷᑺˈᇣᖂӕϮଚ䫊㸠䌋ℒԭ乱Ў39%3062ғܗˈ䕗ᑈ߱䭓8%ˈऴ䳊ଂ䌋ℒ↨䞡䖒ࠄ38%ˈᑇഛ߽⥛䕗ޚϞ⍂30%ˈ៤Ў〇ᅮޔ߽ᙃᬊܹⱘЏ㽕㋴˗ϡ䖛ˈ⌟29%Ⳃࠡᇣᖂᅶ᠋ֵ䌋Џ㽕ᰃᄬ䞣䳊ଂᅶ᠋ᓔথˈᴹᮄᅶ᠋ᓔথҡᄬय़DŽ 19%9% 䋳؎៤ᴀय़ᰒ⦄ˈQ1ޔᙃᏂ⦃↨ϟ䰡20BPs㟇%˗Ё䯈Ϯࡵᬊ-1%ܹ㡃དDŽ݀ৌ㟈Ѣࡴ催ᬊⲞ䌘ѻ༃ᅲᙃᏂ2ˈ014Q1䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛⦃↨13BP㟇%˗Ԛৠᯊ䋳؎य़ԧ⦄ˈ䋳؎៤ᴀ⦃↨34BP-11%㟇%ˈᢪ㌃NIM⦃↨䰡20BP㟇%DŽҢ䌘ѻㅵ⧚㒧ᵘᴹⳟˈ⬅ Ѣ䞥㩉㢅ঞҹϞᅶ᠋ᘏ䌘ѻԭ乱䖒ϛғܗˈ䕗ᑈ߱ࡴ9%ˈ㗠ᭈԧ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ˄ᄬℒ+⧚䋶˅гࡴ10%ˈջ䴶㸼ᯢ䋶ᆠㅵ⧚ゲѝḐሔࡴ࠻ᇍ݀ৌ䋳؎䭓᳝ᰒ㨫य़DŽ㓁䌍ᬊܹЏ㽕ᴹ⑤Ѣ˖˄1˅䫊㸠वᬊܹ˗˄2˅ᠬㅵ㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ ঞফᠬϮࡵᬊܹ˗˄3˅䋶ࡵ䆶䌍ᬊܹˈ݀ৌ1ᄷᑺ㓁䌍䴲߽ᙃᬊ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ ܹ⦃↨䗳ߚ߿Ў55%68%㸼ˈᯢ݀ৌ䕗ᔎⱘܗ࣪ᬊܹⱘ㛑DŽ 㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ 䌘ѻ䋼䞣ᑇ〇ৃདѢৠϮˈ乘䅵ᢼ䅵ᦤᇚ᳝᠔ޣᔅDŽ2014Q1݀ৌϡⳌᇍ≾⏅300⍼ᐙ 㡃䌋ℒ⦃↨ডᔍ8%㟇199ғˈϡ㡃⥛㟇%DŽᢼ䅵ᦤᮍ䴶ˈ݀ৌ ϡ㡃䌋ℒ亢䰽ৃϡˈ㡃໘㕂ᑺᑇ〇Ԛˈ1ᄷᑺᇍѻ㛑䖛࠽㸠Ϯ䌋ℒࡴ亢䰽㸹ܙᢼ䅵ᦤᑺˈড়䅵䅵ᦤᢼ70ғˈЎএᑈᑇഛؐⱘ1סҹЏ㽕᭄ Ϟˈᇐ㟈ֵ⫼៤ᴀҢ%ᦤछ㟇%ˈ乘䅵ৢ㓁ᄷᑺӮᇣᐙϟ䰡DŽ ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ / 亢䰽㋴DŽ䌘ѻ䋼䞣ᙊ࣪ᇍ߽⍺㸼ⱘᕅડDŽⲥㅵᬊ㋻ᇍϮࡵᠽᓴⱘᕅડDŽ ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ ⱒϛ㙵 㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽᳳᕙ݀ৌᮄӏㅵ⧚ሖⱘѠ䕀ൟ⬹㓈ˈᣕⲜ߽乘⌟ˈ䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ 乘䅵݀ৌ䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % 2014/15/16ᑈEPSЎ % PE/PBߚ߿Ў Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 36,129 45,273 51,743 59,021 66,812 ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ % % % % % Џ㽕㙵ϰ˄%˅ ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 36,129 45,273 51,743 59,021 66,812 佭␃Ё༂㒧ㅫ(ҷ⧚Ҏ)᳝䰤݀ৌ ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ % % % % % ଚሔ䕂㠍㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ EPS˄ܗ˅ ᅝ䙺䋶ѻֱ䰽㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ-ӴPE 6 㒳ѻક 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ Ё䖰⋟䖤䕧(䲚ಶ)ᘏ݀ৌ PB˄ס˅ ⫳ੑҎᇓֱ䰽㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ-ϛޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% 24 㛑H 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
ଚ䫊㸠˄˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2011-2015EޔᙃᏂᚙމ 3˖2011-2015E䌍⫼ᬊܹ↨ᚙމ ޔ߽ᙃᬊܹ⫳ᙃ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛䌍⫼ᬊܹ↨3%㓁䌍ᬊܹޔ߽ᙃᬊⲞ⥛˄ে䕈˅݊ҪϮࡵᬊܹ40%%%35%%%22%30%%%25%%20%%%75% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 42˖011-2015E䌘ѻ䋼䞣Ϣֵ⫼៤ᴀ 5˖2011-2015Eᴴᴚס᭄ϢROE 6˖㸠ϮᏖഎḐሔ ϡ㡃䌋ℒ⥛ᴴᴚס᭄ଚϮ䫊㸠߽⍺˄ғܗ˅ֵ⫼៤ᴀ˄ে䕈˅ROE˄ে䕈˅䗳˄ে䕈˅%%1825%1800040%1600035%%%23%140001730%%1200025%%21%%1620%%19%15%%60001510%%17%%5%%%1415%00% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ ᏖEPS PE ㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB എ 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E VALUE⇥⫳䫊㸠 600016 ݈Ϯ䫊㸠 601166 GARPGROWTHA ⌺থ䫊㸠 600000 㙵 ढ䫊㸠 600015 ᑇᅝ䫊㸠 000001 QUALITYMOMENTIM∛Є㙵 H ᘦ⫳䫊㸠 DEFENSIVE㙵 ᆠ䫊㸠 ⍋ ᨽḍ䗮 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈBLOOMBERGˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊ⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPBG˗ROWTH˖ϸⲬӋ˗ৃ↨݀ৌEPSЎBLOOMBERGϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ ᑈ乘⌟EPSCAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕ࠌֱ߽ഄѻ˄600048˅ ⷨお 㗠Ҟ䖜ℹҢ༈䍞 ਞ ݀фܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ৌ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ⷨ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍˖ おⳂᷛӋ˖ܗ ݀ৌᰃܼᗻഄѻᓔথ啭༈ӕϮ˖ֱ߽᠓ഄѻ˄䲚ಶ˅㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌᰃЁЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ֱ߽䲚ಶ㙵ⱘൟ᳝᠓ഄѻӕϮᰃˈЁֱ߽䲚ಶ᠓ഄѻϮࡵⱘ䖤 ᠓ᑇৄˈᆊϔ㑻᠓ഄѻᓔথ䌘䋼ӕϮDŽ2013ᑈˈ݀ৌᅲ⦄䫔ଂㅒ㑺乱ഄ䰜㘾 1252ғܗৠˈ↨䭓%Ꮦˈഎऴ᳝⥛䖒%Ꮦˈഎᥦৡࠡ52˗013ѻ⬉䆱˖010-60838249 ᑈᑩ݀ৌᘏ䌘ѻ㾘3139ғܗ䌘ˈѻ䋳؎⥛Ў78%ˈޔ䋳؎⥛Ў%DŽ 㸠䚂ӊ˖chencong@ Ϯ 㸠Ϯᬍ䴽㓧䞞㑶߽ˈᴀ䴶ֱᣕ〇ع˖ϔ㠀ѻϮϡৠᬓˈᑰ乒㰥䞥㵡ԧSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120047 ㋏亢䰽ሙ⇥ᴗⲞ㓽∈亢䰽ˈϡ㛑ܕ䆌㸠Ϯ㞾㸠ߎ⏙DŽℸˈᬓㄪҢ֗ᣝᧁ䌋ℒথᬒᬒᓔ䰤䌁ㅵࠊϸϾᮍ䴶ⴔˈगᮍⱒ䅵䞞ᬒⳳᅲ䌁᠓䳔Ҭ⨰ ∖ˈֱ䆕Ꮦഎعᒋᑇ〇থሩDŽ៥Ӏ߸ᮁˈᴹ᠓Ӌএ࣪䗳ᑺ䛑ᇚֱᣕ〇⬉䆱˖010-60836707 ᅮᏖˈഎᇍ᠓ഄѻ㸠Ϯ㋏㒳ᗻ亢䰽ᢙᖻ䗤⏤䕀⎵ˈࡼഄѻ㙵Ԅؐԧ㋏ᣕ䚂ӊ˖yufu@ 㓁Ϟ㸠DŽ SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512080008 ݀ৌᑓ䯨ⱘ៤䭓ぎ䯈DŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ݀ৌⱘ៤䭓ぎ䯈Џ㽕ᴹ㞾ѢЁ ᠓ഄѻᏖഎऴ᳝⥛ⱘ㒻㓁ᦤछDŽ䖭⾡ᦤछⱘЏ㽕䗨ᕘϔˈᰃ㒻㓁ড়⧚ᮄජᏖᏗሔⱘ᭄䞣Ѡˈᰃ㟈ѢᦤछᏆ䖯ܹජᏖⱘᏖഎऴ᳝⥛DŽ݀ৌᮄᢧሩⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ ජᏖᏗሔ䰸ˈњᴹֱ߽㕂Ϯⱘৃ㛑ড়ПЏˈ㽕ᰃ⿃ᵕᏗሔජᏖ25%≾⏅300ԣᅙഄѻ(Ёֵ)ֱ߽ഄѻ㕸ЁⱘЁൟජᏖDŽ䖭ϔᓣ᮶᳝߽Ѣ㓽ⷁㅵ⧚ञᕘˈᦤछᓔথ㛑ˈг乎15%ᑨњජᏖ㕸থሩⱘ⌾╂ゟˈ䑿Ѣⳳᅲ䳔∖DŽᦤछᏆ⍝䎇ජᏖᏖഎऴ᳝⥛5%ᮍ䴶ˈ݀ৌ᳝ৃ㛑䗝ᢽ᱃⇨ᑺ䕗དೳˈഄᗻӋ↨ড়䗖ⱘऎඳ䖯ϔℹ䬏䗴㛑-5%ˈᦤछ䫔ଂDŽ -15% 䖯߭ᡘᑩᣓഄˈ䗔߭ࠊᡩ䌘——2014ᑈϟञᑈ݀ৌݡ㦋থሩᴎ䘛DŽ-25%2014ᑈ䍋ˈ݀ৌ䞛পњࡴḋ࣪ⱘ䫔ଂ↉ᮄˈⲬⱘᅮӋぎ䯈гDŽ៥ӀⳌֵˈ݀ৌ䫔ଂϟञᑈᇚᦤ䗳DŽ⬅Ѣ䖛এϸᑈ݀ৌᮄᓔᎹᏆ㒣-35%ᣓഄᴀⳌㄝˈ䫔ଂࠄシᎹⱘᯊ䯈਼ᳳ㹿䗖ᑺᢝ䭓ˈ݀ৌ2014ᑈᓔᎹ130725131025140125140425 シᎹ䅵ߦ䗳䛑ϡ催ᓎˈᅝⳌ݇߮ᗻᡩ䌘ᬃߎय़ϡDŽབᵰϟञᑈ䫔ଂ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ᳝䍋㡆ˈ݀ৌህ᳝ᡘᑩᣓഄⱘ㡃ᴎ˗བᵰϟञᑈ䫔ଂϡՇˈ݀ৌгϡӮ᳝⦄䞥⌕ᮍ䴶䯂乬DŽ 㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ 亢䰽㋴˖݀ৌϟञᑈ䫔ଂϡՇⱘ亢䰽ᇍ˗݀ৌㅵ⧚ሖਬᎹ▔ࢅϡ䎇ⱘ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ 亢䰽DŽ 㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ Ⳍᇍ≾⏅300⍼ᐙ Ⲝ߽乘⌟ϢԄؐ៥˖Ӏ䅸Ўࠡˈϔ䰊↉ᏖഎᇍѢ݀ৌ䫔ଂৠ↨ϟ䰡ޔ䋳؎⥛أ催ᢙᖗ䖛ᑺ㒉ˈ㾖ݙഄ佭␃ϸ໘䌘ᴀᏖഎˈ݀ৌᰃᏖؐ↨䫔ଂ᳔ Ԣⱘ啭༈ഄѻӕDŽ៥Ӏ㓈ᣕ݀ৌ2014/15/16ᑈ 㙵ⱘⲜ߽乘⌟ˈܗ/㙵ˈ㓈ᣕ݀ৌܗⱘⳂᷛӋˈ㓈ᣕĀф≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ܹāⱘᡩ䌘䆘㑻DŽ 10707 /10707 ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ ⱒϛ㙵 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 47,036 68,906 92,356 107,984 133,078 䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ 䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 6,531 8,438 10,747 13,657 17,038 Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽䗳˄%˅12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ EPS˄ܗ˅ ↯߽⥛˄%˅ Џ㽕㙵ϰ˄%˅ PE ֱ߽फᮍ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌ 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ ᑓϰढ㕢䰙ᡩ䌘䲚ಶ᳝䰤PB˄ס˅ ݀ৌ ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% Ёֱ߽䲚ಶ݀ৌ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ ֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ ढֵֵᠬ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
ֱ߽ഄѻ˄600048˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2014E↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2011-2015Eϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ ᠓ഄѻ݊Ҫ᠓ഄѻ݊Ҫ䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛3%6%䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⥛%97%2011201220132014E2015E 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 4˖2011-2015E㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2011-2015E⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖ܼଚક᠓䫔ଂ乱ঞ䭓 ⌕ࡼ↨⥛˄Ꮊ䕈˅㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕˄ⱒϛ˅ROEଚક᠓䫔ଂ乱˄ϛғܗ˅䗳ࡼ↨⥛˄Ꮊ䕈˅ᄬ䋻਼䕀᭄˄ে䕈˅ৠ↨䭓⥛ 30% 20% 26% 10%50011%10% 0%5%4%2%-6%--10% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟˄14ᑈৢЎ乘⌟˅ 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ EPS PE VALUEㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB ROE Ꮦഎ 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E ϛ⾥A GARPGROWTHଚഄѻ 䞥ഄ䲚ಶ A㙵 䞥㵡㸫 ढռජA QUALITYMOMENTUMЁ⍋থሩ H㙵 ढ⍺㕂ഄ DEFENSIVE㦅㒇 LEN ⍋ DR䳡乓 DHI 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈBloombergˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPB˗GROWTH˖ϸৃ↨݀ৌEPSЎBloombergϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ ᑈ乘⌟EPSCAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕Ё࣫䔺˄601299˅ ࠌⷨ おϮ㒽⹂ᅮᗻ催ˈ䔼Ϫ⬠ ਞфܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ݀ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ৌ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ ⷨⳂᷛӋ˖ܗ お ݀ৌᰃݙ䔼Ѹ㺙ঠᆵ༈Пϔˈᅶ䔺ǃᴎ䔺㛑さߎDŽ݀ৌᢹ᳝ЁЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᳔ⱘᴎ䔺ࠊ䗴ഄ䪕ˈ䏃ᅶ䔺ⱘⷨথࠊ䗴㛑ݙ᳔ᔎકˈ⾡㋏᳔߫唤ᴎܼDŽᢹ᳝ݙ᳔ⱘᅶ䔺ⷨথࠊ䗴ഄ⥛ˈܜথ䖒ᆊߎষњᅶ䔺ѻકDŽ߬⍋म ẄЎݙ䪕䏃ᎹᴎẄ㺙䞡㽕կᑨଚˈ݊ൟ䪕䏃ݏ䏃ᴎẄǃ䍋䞡ᴎǃᴎẄ㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤᏜ 㸠Ꮉⷓᴎ䔺ㄝ䪕䏃ᎹᴎẄѻક乚ඳⱘᡔᴃ∈ᑇᏖഎऴ᳝⥛ݙ乚ܜDŽ Ϯ⬉䆱˖0755-23835418 䪕䏃ᅮ䌘ѻ㓈ᣕ催ԡˈ䪕䏃䆒䳔∖〇ᅮ䭓DŽ2014ᑈ䪕䏃ᅮ䌘ѻ䚂ӊ˖liuhaibo@ ᡩ䌘㒣䖛ϝϞ䇗䖒ࠄ8000ғˈᓔᎹ乍Ⳃ㟇64乍ˈᡩѻᮄ㒓⹂ֱ䖒SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512080011 7000݀䞠ҹϞˈ䆒ᡩ䌘乱⬅1200ғܗ㟇1430ғܗҹϞˈ乘䅵Āक ѠѨāᳳ䯈ҡᇚ㓈ᣕ催ԡDŽ Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ 䪕䏃থሩ䞥ֱ䱰䌘䞥ᴹ⑤DŽᣝࡵ䰶4᳜Ӯ䆂䅵ߦˈ៥ᇚ䆒ゟ䪕䏃≾⏅300䪕䏃Ѹ䗮䆒(Ёֵ)থሩ䞥ˈᢧᆑᓎ䆒䌘䞥ᴹ⑤DŽ䗮䖛ᓩ⼒Ӯ䌘ᴀᡩܹˈ䞥ᘏ㾘䖒ࠄЁ࣫䔺31%↣ᑈ2000ғ㟇3000ғܗˈЎ៥䪕䏃ᓎ䆒䌘䞥ᡩ䌘ᦤկֱ䱰DŽ∳㽓ǃ21%ᑓϰǃᅝᖑǃቅϰᏆᓔྟ䆩⚍ˈ݊Ё∳㽓3᳜ᑩথ㸠њ∳㽓ⳕ݈䪕ѻϮᡩ䌘䞥DŽ 11% 䅶ऩܙ㺩DŽ2014ᑈҹᴹˈ㉏ᮄ䅶ऩғܗˈЎ2013ᑈᬊ1%ܹⱘ91%DŽ2014ᑈ8᳜ᑩࡼ䔺㒘᳝ᷛᳯਃࡼˈ݀ৌ᳝ᳯᷛЁᣕ㓁-9%Ёᷛˈࡼ䔺㒘߽⍺⥛催Ѣ݊ҪϮࡵˈ݀ৌᭈԧ߽⍺⥛᳝ᳯᦤछDŽ 130725131025140125140425 Ḍᖗᡔᴃᓔথ䳊䚼ӊ䗤ℹᅲ⦄ᮄさ⸈DŽ݀ৌ乍Ḍᖗᡔᴃ䳊䚼ӊϞ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ᅲ⦄њᮄさ⸈Ḍ˖ᖗᡔᴃᮍ䴶⡉ˈᓩ㔥㒰ࠊ㋏㒳ߎষᄳࡴᢝࡼ䔺㒘Ϟ㺙䔺䖤⫼ǃMVBC㢃⠛ᅲ⦄ᡍ䞣կ䋻ǃࠊࡼᡔᴃᅲ⦄ग़ᗻさ⸈ㄝDŽ㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ ݇䬂㋏㒳䞡㽕䳊䚼ӊᮍ䴶ˈ݀ৌ䖯ϔℹᦤ催њࠊࡼ㋏㒳ǃ⡉ᓩࠊ㋏㒳ǃ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ 㔥㒰ࠊ㋏㒳ǃぎ⇨ᔍㇻǃ啓䕂ㆅㄝ݇䬂㋏㒳䞡㽕䳊䚼ӊѻ࣪∈ᑇDŽ 㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ 亢䰽㋴˖ࡼ䔺ѸҬԢѢ乘ᳳ˗䪕ᘏᷛԢѢ乘ᳳㄝDŽ Ⳍᇍ≾⏅300⍼ᐙ Ⲝ߽乘⌟ঞԄؐ㸠˖Ϯᢤ⚍ߎ⦄䪕ˈ䏃䔺䕚䌁㕂䞥乱ᦤछࡼˈ䔺ᣕ㓁ᬒ䞣ǃ ݀ৌ䗮䖛ᣕ㓁ѻ࣪Ḍᖗ䚼ӊᦤछⲜ߽㛑ˈ㓈ᣕ2014-16ᑈEPS乘⌟Џ㽕᭄ Ўǃǃܗˈ㒭ќ2015ᑈ12-14סPEˈⳂᷛӋ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ܗˈ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ ⱒϛ㙵 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % % % % % % Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ % % % % % EPS˄ܗ˅ ↯߽⥛˄%˅ % % % % % Џ㽕㙵ϰᚙމ PE Ё࣫ᮍᴎ䔺䔺䕚ᎹϮ䲚ಶ㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ % ݀ৌ PB˄ס˅ ࣫Ҁ࣫䔺ᡩ䌘᳝䰤䋷ӏ݀ৌ % ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% ܼ⼒Ӯֱ䱰䞥⧚џӮ䕀% EV/EBITDA ᣕϝ᠋ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
Ё࣫䔺˄601299˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2014E↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2011-2015Eϝ乍䌍⫼˄ϛܗ˅ 5%2%䫔ଂ䌍⫼ㅵ⧚䌍⫼䔼䘧Ѹ䗮Ϯࡵ⦄ҷ᳡ࡵϮࡵ䔼䘧Ѹ䗮Ϯࡵ⦄ҷ᳡ࡵϮࡵ2%5%䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⬹ᮄ݈ѻϮ䗮⫼ᴎ⬉Ϯࡵ⬹ᮄ݈ѻϮ䗮⫼ᴎ⬉Ϯࡵ1,000,000800,0008%23%600,000400,00070%200,00085%0E E 20112012201320142015-200,000 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 4˖2012-2015E㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2012-2015EⲜ߽㛑 (ϛܗ) 6˖䪕䏃㸠Ϯᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘乱 ᑨᬊ䋺ℒ਼䕀᭄(㒣㧹⦄䞥⌕ROEᅮᡩ䌘ᘏ乱(ғܗ)Ꮊ䕈)ᅮ䌘ѻYOY(%)8,000 ᄬ䋻਼䕀᭄(Ꮊ䕈)7,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 -1,000 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ EPS PE ㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB ROE 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E Ёफ䔺 ࣫ᮍ߯Ϯ A㙵 ᰟ㽓䔺䕈 ᯊҷᮄᴤ MOMENTUM Ё࣫䔺 6199 H㙵 Ёफ䔺 1766 ᑲᏈ䖾 ⍋ 䰓ᇨᮃ䗮 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼㙵˖Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗ৃ↨݀ৌEPS䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ЎWindϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ ⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPBG˗ROWTH˖ϸᑈ乘⌟EPS CAGRM˗OMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2000A2002A2004A2006A2008A2010A2012A
䆕Ё㟾⬉ᄤ˄600372˅ ࠌⷨ おЏϮ䗳〇ᅮˈ䌘ѻ⊼ܹৃᳳ ਞ2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ݀ᣕ˄㓈ᣕ˅ ৌᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ ⷨお Ё㟾ぎ⬉ᄤᏖഎ啭༈⫳ѻଚDŽ݀ৌЏ㧹ѻકࣙᣀ㟾ぎ㉏ӊǃ㒎㒛ᴎẄЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ঞॳ᭭ǃ✻ᯢঞ䇗ܝ㋏㒳ㄝDŽ㟾ぎ㉏ӊѻકᰃ݀ৌϔЏ㧹Ϯࡵˈ䫔ଂᬊܹऴ↨Ў50%ˈ↯߽ऴ↨Ў56%DŽ2013ᑈ݀ৌᅲ⦄䫔ଂᬊܹݯ催ጽ Ꮉғܗˈޔ߽⍺ғܗˈᰃݙ㟾ぎ⬉ᄤ䆒ⱘ啭༈⫳ѻଚDŽ ݯᎹ㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤᏜ 㸠 㟾ぎѻϮᖿ䗳থሩ㟾ˈ⬉ϮࡵܙߚফⲞDŽ䱣ⴔ៥䰆⬹䕀ൟঞ㘨ড়⬉䆱˖010-60838822 Ϯ䳔∖ⱘ᳝ࡼᥠˈᦵḌᖗᡔᴃǃᢹ᳝㞾Џⶹ䆚ѻᴗⱘᮄൟ㺙䳔∖ᇚ䚂ӊ˖gs@ ᣕ㓁ᔎDŽ䗮⫼㟾ぎǃԢぎぎඳᓔᬒঞⳌ݇⸔䆒ᮑᓎ䆒ˈᇚ䖯ϔℹ䞞ᬒSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512020002 㸠Ϯ䭓ぎ䯈DŽ乘䅵ᴹ5-10ᑈ៥䰆ᬃߎᇚֱᣕ↣ᑈ10%-15%ⱘ਼ᷢӳ 䭓䗳ᑺˈᴎ߫㺙䗳ᑺᇚࡴᖿDŽ㟾⬉䆒Ў亲ᴎḌᖗ䚼ӊˈ䳔∖䗳ᇚᣕ㓁ࡴᖿDŽ ݯᎹ㸠ϮߚᵤᏜ ⬉䆱˖021-20262133 ⠶ᦵ㟾⬉Ꮦഎӑ乱ˈ⇥કϮࡵথሩܙ⒵ᛇ䈵ぎ䯈DŽ䱣ⴔ⬉ᄤᡔᴃⱘথሩˈ䚂ӊ˖zhouliwei@ 㟾⬉ѻકⱘᮄᤶҷℷ䗤ℹᦤ䗳㟾ˈ⬉ѻક៤ᴀऴᭈᴎ៤ᴀⱘ↨՟г䍞ᴹ䍞催DŽⳂࠡˈܜ䖯ᴎϞ㟾⬉㋏㒳៤ᴀᏆऴࠄ40%ᎺেDŽᮄᴎൟⱘࡴSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010513020001 ҹঞ㗕ᴎൟ㟾⬉ѻકⱘᮄᤶҷˈᇚᢝࡼ݀ৌ㟾⬉Ϯࡵ䗳DŽˈᴹ ៥Ԣぎぎඳᓔᬒঞѻ亲ᴎ乍Ⳃⱘᡩѻᇚˈ䖯ϔℹࡴ݀ৌ㟾⬉ѻકⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ ⱘᏖഎぎ䯈DŽ⇥કᮍ䴶ˈ݀ৌᇚࡴᡩܹˈ乘䅵⇥કϮࡵᇚ៤Ўᴹᑈ݀ৌᮄⱘ䭓⚍DŽ≾⏅300 Ё㟾⬉ᄤ㟾ݯᎹ˄Ёֵ˅ 㦋䲚ಶ㟾⬉㋏㒳݀ৌᠬㅵˈᴹ䌘ѻ⊼ܹৃᳳDŽ䲚ಶ݀ৌЁ㟾ᎹϮᇚ㟾⬉㋏㒳݀ৌ100%㙵ᴗྨᠬ݀ৌㅵ⧚ᠬˈㅵ䌘ѻࣙᣀњ5ᆊⷨお᠔˄㞾᠔ǃ䅵ㅫ᠔ǃϞ⬉᠔ǃ䳋⬉᠔ǃ⬉ܝ᠔DŽ˅㟾⬉㋏㒳݀ৌ2013ᑈ㧹ᬊ149ғܗˈޔ߽⍺ғܗˈߚ߿ⳌᔧѢ݀ৌⱘססDŽ݀ৌЎ䲚ಶ㟾ぎ⬉ᄤѻકϮࡵଃϔϞᏖ݀ৌˈᴹⳌ݇⾥ⷨ䰶᠔⊼ܹৃᳳDŽ䱣ⴔ-07-26ᆊ䰚㓁ߎৄ⾥ⷨ䰶᠔ᬍࠊᬓㄪˈ᳝ᳯ䖯ϔℹࡴᖿ䌘ѻᭈড়䖯ᑺDŽ 亢䰽㋴DŽݯᎹᬍࠊᬓㄪߎৄ⒲ৢˈ䌘ѻ⊼ܹ䖯ԢѢ乘ᳳ˗ᮄൟᴎ߫ 㺙䗳ᑺᬒ㓧ㄝDŽ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ϔ㟈乘ᳳϢԄؐDŽ݀ৌᰃݙ㟾ぎ⬉ᄤѻϮⱘ啭༈⫳ѻଚ㸠ˈϮഄԡ〇ˈ ᇚܙߚফⲞѢݙݯ⫼ঞ⇥⫼亲ᴎⱘᖿ䗳থሩˈᑊϨ݀ৌ⿃ᵕᢧሩ⇥કǃ㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ 䴲㟾ぎ䰆ࡵϮࡵˈᴹথሩৃᳳDŽ៥Ӏ乘䅵݀ৌ2014-2015ᑈޔ߽⍺ᇚ 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ Ўғғܗˈ㓈ᣕ2014-15ᑈEPS乘⌟ 䲚ಶৢ㓁䌘ѻ⊼ܹˈ㓈ᣕĀᣕā䆘㑻DŽ Ⳍᇍ≾⏅300⍼ᐙ 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Џ㽕᭄ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 3664 4300 5999 8422 9938 ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ 1759/1759ⱒϛ㙵 ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 411 470 627 798 949 䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ 䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % EPS˄ܗ˅ 䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ↯߽⥛˄%˅Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 189ⱒϛܗ PE 㙵ᙃ⥛˄ס˅ PB˄ס˅ 㙵ϰᚙމ ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% Ё㟾ぎ⾥ᡔᎹϮ䲚ಶ % EV/EBITDA Ё㟾ぎ⬉ᄤ㋏㒳݀ৌ % 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
Ё㟾⬉ᄤ˄600372˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2013ᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2013↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2009-2013ϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ 亲ᴎࠊ䗴Ϯ˄㟾⬉˅亲ᴎࠊ䗴Ϯ˄㟾⬉˅㧹Ϯ䌍⫼⥛ㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛㒎㒛ϧ⫼䆒㒎㒛ϧ⫼䆒ܝӣ䆒ࠊ䗴Ϯ䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⥛ܝӣ䆒ࠊ䗴Ϯ݊Ҫ݊Ҫ20%3%13%15%0%0%6%10%5%81%28%0%20092010201120122013 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ 4˖2009-2013㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2009-2013⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖݀ৌḌᖗѻકüü亲㸠ࠊ㋏㒳 ⌕ࡼ↨⥛㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕˄ⱒϛܗ˅䗳ࡼ↨⥛ᄬ䋻਼䕀᭄˄ে䕈˅ROE(ে䕈˅ᑨᬊ䋺ℒ਼䕀᭄˄ে䕈˅40020%%%%-2000%20092010201120122013 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё⇨䈵ሔˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ EPS PE Ꮦഎ ㅔ⿄ 㙵⼼ҷⷕ PB ROE 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E VALUEЁ㟾ࡼ 000738 69 59 54 Ё㟾ܝ⬉ 002179 33 26 20 GARPGROWTHA㙵 催ᖋ㑶 002414 53 43 30 㟾⬉ᄤ 600879 54 46 ༹᱂ܝ⬉ 002338 63 55 44 QUALITYMOMENTUM佭␃ Ё㟾⾥Ꮉ 27 25 19 䳋⼲ RTN 15 13 12 DEFENSIVE⍋ 䇎ᮃ㔫᱂ NOC 15 14 13 Ḑ剕᳐ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈBloombergˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPBG˗ROWTH˖ϸৃ↨݀ৌEPSЎWindǃBloombergϔ㟈乘ᳳ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᏖഎ᠔ഄ䋻Ꮥ ᑈ乘⌟EPSCAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䆕ࠌЁᮙ˄601888˅ ⷨお Ϯ㒽〇ǃᬓㄪৃᳳˈ⬹䜡㕂Ӌؐᰒ⦄ ਞ ݀фܹ˄㓈ᣕ˅ 2014ᑈ8᳜19᮹ ৌ ᔧࠡӋ˖ܗ ⷨ ᡩ䌘㽕⚍˖ おⳂᷛӋ˖ܗ Ёܡ㸠Ϯ㚠᱃དˈ݀ৌফⲞᬓㄪ㑶߽DŽᢝࡼݙ䳔ǃ㒣⌢䕀ൟᬓㄪЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᇐϟ៥ˈӀ䅸Ўᬓᑰᇚ㟈ѢᓩҎ⍋⍜䌍ಲ⌕ˈܡϮᇚ៤Ўᡓ 令⍜䌍ಲ⌕ⱘЏ㽕乚ඳПϔˈ݊ᬓㄪ㚠᱃ᯢᰒདDŽৠᯊˈᆊ㟈Ѣ佂ྰ࿙ 䖯Ёᮙ␌Ā㟾↡ӕϮāᓎ䆒ˈ㗠佪ܜᇚ䞡⚍ᬃᣕЁ༂ᮙ␌ӕϮথሩDŽЁᮙ⬉䆱˖021-68761982 ᮙ䲚ಶᰃҹᮙ␌᳡ࡵЎЏϮⱘЁ༂ӕϮПϔ᭭ˈᇚᰒ㨫ফⲞѢ䖭ϔ䖛␌䚂ӊ˖jiangya@ DŽӕᬍ䴽⌾╂ϟˈৃ݇⊼ᬍ䴽㚠᱃ϟ݀ৌ㒣㧹Ϣㅵ⧚ᴎࠊᰃ৺ᄬᬍ㸠ৃ㛑ᗻˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ў݀ৌݙ䚼ᣪ┰ぎ䯈ᕜDŽSACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120056 Ϯ Ҏ⍜䌍ᛣᜓǃ㛑ঠ催ˈϝѮᑫֱᣕᖿ䗳䭓DŽ2013ᑈϝѮܡᑫᅲ⥟⥹ ⦄ᬊܹғܗ˄+%˅ˈ݊Ёܡଚકᬊܹ㑺ғܗ˄ऴ↨㑺⬉䆱˖021-20262141 95%DŽ˅2013ᑈϝѮᑫᖿЏ㽕⬅ᅶऩᦤछᏺࡼˈ䇈ᯢ2012ᑈ11᳜ᠻ䚂ӊ˖yuew@ 㸠ⱘ乱ᑺᦤछᬓㄪᰃЏ㽕ⱘ䭓偅ࡼ㋴˄⌟ㅫ2013ϝѮᑫᅶऩᑇഛ䖥3800ܗˈৠ↨䍙50%DŽ˅ SACᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010514080002 ⍋Ẵᮄᑫ9᳜ᓔϮˈথሩ┰ؐᕫⳟདDŽ2014ᑈϞञᑈϝѮᑫ㌃䅵䫔ଂ乱乘䅵䖥20ғܗˈৠ↨䗳䍙20%ˈৃ㾕⍜䌍⸔മᅲDŽ2014ᑈ⬅Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄ Ѣᬓㄪᠻ㸠ぎにǃ⍋ẴᓔϮᑊ㸠ϰ⍋݇ᑫ乘ˈ䅵ϝѮܡ߽⍺䋵⤂≾⏅300ᮙ㸠⼒(Ёֵ)᮴䭓ˈԚ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ䱣⍋ẴᓔϮЈ䖥ˈᮄⱘᬓㄪࣙᣀ乱ᑺݡᦤछㄝⱘЁᮙ乘ᳳᇚᔎ࣪ˈৠᯊˈ䎼๗䗮Ϯࡵ⏅ܹǃ㔥Ϟ䫔ଂᑇৄߎˈ䛑᳝ᳯЎ݀ৌ56%46%ᠧᓔ䭓ぎ䯈⏏ࡴⷱⷕDŽ 36% ݊ҪϮࡵ䭓Уˈݙ䚼ᣪ┰ᦤछⲜ߽㛑ৃᳳDŽ䰸ϝѮܡϮࡵˈ݀26%ৌӴ㒳ܡᮙ㸠⼒Ϯࡵ䭓ⳌᇍУ˄2013ᑈߚ߿%/%˅ˈԚ16%݀ৌݙ䚼៤ᴀय़㓽ঞᣪ┰㛑䕗ᔎҹˈঞᄬЏࡼⱘӬ࣪㒧ᵘⱘ⬹䇗6%-4%ᭈˈℸˈⲜ߽㛑ഛᦤछDŽ2013ᑈӴ㒳ܡঞᮙ㸠⼒Ϯࡵ߽⍺䗳130729131029140129140429ߚ߿䖒24% /97%ˈഛᐙ催Ѣᬊܹ䗳DŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ䖭ḋⱘⲜ߽㒧ᵘ 䭓2014ᑈҡᇚᣕ㓁ˈेϝѮܡϮࡵ䭓㱑ফ䰤ˈᴀ䚼Ϯࡵⱘݙ䚼ᣪ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ┰ᇚᬃᩥ݀ৌᭈԧϮࡵ〇ˈ៥Ӏ乘䅵ৃ䖒20%ᎺেDŽ 亢䰽㋴DŽ㒣⌢ϟ⒥䍙乘ᳳᕅડ⍜䌍䳔∖亢䰽˗ܡᬓㄪѻ⫳ব࣪ᕅડゲѝḐሔⱘ亢䰽Ҏ˗ᠡ⌕༅亢䰽Ⲝ˗ԭㅵ⧚ࡼᴎϟ៤ᴀϞछ䍙乘ᳳⱘ亢䰽ㄝDŽ 㙵Ӌ㸼⦄˄%˅ Ⲝ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻DŽ㓈ᣕ݀ৌ2014-2016ᑈEPS乘⌟Ў 1Ͼ᳜ Ҟᑈ 12Ͼ᳜ ݀ৌ㙵ӋᏆᴀডˈৢ㓁ৃ⿃ᵕ݇⊼ᬓㄪ乘ᳳད㢹ˈ⹂㛑㨑ᅲᇚ᳝ᬜⳌᇍ≾⏅300⍼ᐙ ڀ࣪Ԅؐ˗ৠᯊӕᬍ䴽㚠᱃ϟ݀ৌԧࠊ᳝ᳯᬍǃ▔ࢅᴎࠊ᳝ᳯᦤछDŽ݀ৌ㙵Ӌ䖥ᳳϮ㒽䭓ᬒ㓧ᬓㄪ߽ད߽ぎѸ㒛ᕅડϟ㸼⦄ᑇ⎵៥ˈӀ 䅸Ўˈ㗗㰥ࠄৢ㓁݀ৌℷ䴶㋴⿃㘮ǃϮ㒽䭓乘ᳳ〇عˈ݀ৌЎ㒱ᇍЏ㽕᭄ ᬊⲞક⾡Ӌؐᰒ⦄ˈ㙵ӋԢԡৃ⿃ᵕ䜡㕂ˈ㓈ᣕϔᑈᳳⳂᷛӋ45ܗ˄ᇍ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄ ⚍ ᑨ2015ᑈ25xPE˅Āфܹā䆘㑻DŽ / ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ 乍Ⳃ/ᑈᑺ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E ⱒϛ㙵 㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 12695 16134 17448 20128 22957 䖥12᳔᳜催/᳔ԢӋ ܗ/ܗ ᬊܹ䗳˄%˅ 䖥1᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽⍺˄ⱒϛܗ˅ 685 1006 1295 1566 1755 䖥6᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % ޔ߽䗳˄%˅ Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ % EPS˄ܗ˅ 12Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱 ⱒϛܗ ↯߽⥛˄%˅ PE 47 32 25 20 17 㙵ᙃ⥛˄%˅ Џ㽕㙵ϰ˄%˅ PB˄ס˅ Ёᮙ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌ % ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛ROE% ढռජ䲚ಶ݀ৌ % EV/EBITDA 24 18 15 13 11 Ϟ⍋᯳ѻϮᡩ䌘᳝䰤݀ৌ % 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳 ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
Ёᮙ˄601888˅ ݀ৌϔ㾜 1˖2014Eᬊܹߚ㾷 2˖2014E↯߽ߚ㾷 3˖2011-2015Eϝ乍䌍⫼⥛ব࣪ ᮙ㸠⼒Ϯࡵܡ݊Ҫᮙ㸠⼒Ϯࡵܡ݊Ҫ㧹Ϯ䌍⫼⥛ㅵ⧚䌍⫼⥛1%3%䋶ࡵ䌍⫼⥛10%8%8%6%38%4%2%61%0%89%-2%2011201220132014E2015E 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 4˖2011-2015E㧹䖤ᬜ⥛ 5˖2011-2015E⦄䞥⌕ϢⲜ߽㛑 6˖㸠ϮᏖഎḐሔ ⌕ࡼ↨⥛(Ꮊ䕈)ЁܡϮ䫔ଂᘏ乱˄ғ㕢ܗ˅㒣㧹ᗻ⦄䞥⌕˄ⱒϛ˅䗳ࡼ↨⥛(Ꮊ䕈)ܼ⧗Ꮦഎӑ乱%250020%4403010%200015%24258%%10%%6%%%%4%5%%%%%2%50000%00% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Generation ResearchˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨ お䚼 7˖亢Ḑߚᵤ 㸼1˖ܼ⧗Ꮦഎৃ↨݀ৌ ᏖEPS PE ROEㅔ⿄ ҷⷕ PB എ ˄%˅ 13 14E 15E 13 14E 15E VALUEЁ䴦ᮙ A㙵 ӫֵᮙ␌ 12 GARPGROWTHH㙵 佭␃Ёᮙ Ф MOMENTUMOMENTUM ⍋ ᮄ㔫 - - - - QUALITYMDufry DEFENSIVE䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖H㙵ǃ⍋㙵ৃ↨݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟ߚ߿ᴹ㞾WindǃBloombergϔ㟈乘⌟ˈA㙵݀ৌЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟ ⊼˖㙵Ӌপ2014ᑈ7᳜25᮹ᬊⲬӋ˗䋻ᏕऩԡЎᔧഄ䋻Ꮥ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈᳱ䰇∌㓁ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⊼˖VALUE˖2014E PEǃPB˗GROWTH˖ϸᑈ乘⌟EPSCAGR˗MOMENTUM˖᳔䖥ϝ᳜ ⍼ᐙ᳔ᤃᐙD˗EFENSIVE2˖014E2013⌒ᙃ⥛˗QUALITY˖䖥ϸᑈ ROEǃROIC˗GARP˖PE/G 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 200420052006200720082009201020112012
ߚᵤᏜໄᯢ Џ㽕䋳䋷᪄ݭᴀⷨおਞܼ䚼䚼ߚݙᆍⱘߚᵤᏜℸໄᯢ˖˄i˅ᴀⷨおਞ᠔㸼䗄ⱘӏԩ㾖⚍ഛ㊒ޚഄডњϞ䗄↣ԡߚᵤᏜϾҎᇍᷛⱘ䆕ࠌথ㸠Ҏⱘⳟ⊩˗˄ii˅䆹ߚᵤᏜ᠔ᕫ䝀ⱘӏԩ㒘៤䚼ߚ᮴䆎ᰃ䖛এǃ⦄ঞᇚᴹഛϡӮⳈ䯈ഄϢⷨおਞ᠔㸼䗄ⱘԧᓎ䆂㾖⚍Ⳍ㘨㋏DŽ 䆘㑻䇈ᯢ ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ⱘ䆘㑻ᷛޚ 䆘㑻 䇈ᯢ ਞЁᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂᠔⍝ঞⱘ䆘㑻ߚЎ㙵⼼䆘㑻㸠Ϯ䆘фܹ ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ20%ҹϞ˗ 㑻˄᳝䇈ᯢⱘ䰸DŽ˅䆘㑻ᷛޚЎਞথᏗ᮹ৢ6ࠄᣕ ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ5%̚20%П䯈 12Ͼ᳜ݙⱘⳌᇍᏖഎ㸼⦄гˈेҹ˖ਞথᏗ᮹ৢⱘ6㙵⼼䆘㑻 ᣕ᳝ ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚5%П䯈 ࠄ12Ͼ᳜ݙⱘ݀ৌ㙵Ӌ˄㸠Ϯᣛ᭄˅ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄ⱘ⍼䎠ᐙЎޚDŽ݊Ё˖A㙵Ꮦपߎ ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ10%ҹϞ˗ എҹ≾⏅300ᣛ᭄Ўޚ佭˗␃ᏖഎҹᨽḍЍ߽ЁᔎѢᏖ ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄⍼ᐙ10%ҹϞ˗ ᣛ᭄Ўޚ˗㕢Ꮦഎҹ㒇ᮃ䖒ܟ㓐ড়ᣛ᭄ᷛ᱂500㸠Ϯ䆘㑻 Ёᗻ ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄⍼ᐙҟѢ-10%̚10%П䯈˗ ᣛ᭄ЎޚDŽ ᔅѢᏖ ⳌᇍৠᳳⳌ݇䆕ࠌᏖഎҷ㸼ᗻᣛ᭄䎠ᐙ10%ҹϞ ݊Ҫໄᯢ ᴀⷨおਞ⬅Ёֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ݊䰘ሲᴎᵘࠊDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞܼ݊⧗ⱘ䰘ሲᴎᵘǃߚᬃᴎᵘঞ㘨㧹ᴎᵘ˄ҙህᴀⷨおਞܡ䋷ᴵℒ㗠㿔ˈϡCLSA group of companies˅ˈ㒳⿄Ў“Ёֵ䆕ࠌ”DŽ ⊩ᕟЏԧໄᯢ Ёᴀ˖ⷨおਞЁढҎ⇥݅˄佭␃ǃ▇䮼ǃৄ䰸⬅˅Ёֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ˄ফЁ䆕ࠌⲥⴷㅵ⧚ྨਬӮⲥㅵ㒣ˈ㧹䆕ࠌϮࡵ䆌ৃ䆕㓪ো˖Z20374000˅ߚথDŽ ᮄࡴവ˖ᴀⷨおਞᮄࡴവ⬅CLSA Singapore Pte Limited˄ϟ⿄“CLSA Singapore”˅ߚথˈᑊҙᮄࡴവlj䆕ࠌঞᳳ䋻⊩NJ(1)ᅮНϟⱘ“ᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙ǃ䅸ৃᡩ䌘㗙ঞϧϮᡩ䌘㗙”ᦤկDŽϞ䗄ӏԩᡩ䌘㗙བᏠᳯѸ⌕ᴀਞህᴀਞ᠔䆘䆎ⱘӏԩ䆕ࠌ䖯㸠ѸᯧᑨϢCLSA Singaporeⱘᮄࡴവ䞥㵡ㅵ⧚ሔᣕ⠠ҷ㸼䖯㸠Ѹ⌕䗮䖛ৢ㗙䖯㸠ѸᯧDŽབᙼሲѢ“䅸ৃᡩ䌘㗙ϧϮᡩ䌘㗙”ˈ䇋⊼ᛣ,CLSA SingaporeϢᙼⱘѸᯧᇚ䈕ܡѢᮄࡴവlj䋶ࡵ乒䯂⊩NJⱘᶤѯ⡍ᅮ㽕∖˖˄1˅䗖⫼lj䋶ࡵ乒䯂㾘՟NJ33ᴵЁⱘ䈕ܡˈे䈕ܡ䙉ᅜlj䋶ࡵ乒䯂⊩NJ25ᴵ݇Ѣᅶ᠋䴆ѻકֵᙃⱘ㾘ᅮ˗˄2˅䗖⫼lj䋶ࡵ乒䯂㾘՟NJ34ᴵЁⱘ䈕ܡˈे䈕ܡ䙉ᅜlj䋶ࡵ乒䯂⊩NJ27ᴵ݇Ѣ㤤ᓎ䆂ⱘ㾘ᅮ˗ҹঞ˄3˅䗖⫼lj䋶ࡵ乒䯂㾘՟NJ35ᴵЁⱘ䈕ܡˈे䈕ܡ䙉ᅜlj䋶ࡵ乒䯂⊩NJ36ᴵ݇Ѣ䴆⡍ᅮ䆕ࠌ߽Ⲟⱘ㾘ᅮDŽ 䩜ᇍϡৠৌ⊩ㅵ䕪ऎⱘໄᯢ Ё˖ḍЁ䆕ࠌⲥⴷㅵ⧚ྨਬӮḌথⱘ㒣㧹䆕ࠌϮࡵ䆌ৃˈЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌⱘ㒣㧹㣗ೈࣙᣀ䆕ࠌᡩ䌘䆶ϮࡵDŽ ᮄࡴവ: ⲥㅵ⊩㾘Ѹᯧ㾘߭㽕∖ᇍⷨおਞ⍝ঞⱘᅲ䰙ǃ┰乘ᳳⱘ߽Ⲟކさ䖯㸠ᖙ㽕ⱘ䴆DŽ乏ќ䴆ⱘ߽Ⲟކさৃձ✻Ⳍ݇⊩ᕟ⊩㾘㽕∖⡍ᅮਞЁ㦋ᕫˈ䆺㒚ݙᆍ䇋ᶹⳟ group, CLSA AmericasঞCA TaiwanⱘᚙމˈϡডЁֵ䆕ࠌǃCredit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bankঞ/݊㞾䰘ሲᴎᵘⱘᚙމDŽབᡩ䌘㗙⌣㾜Ϟ䗄㔥ഔᯊ䘛ࠄӏԩೄ䲒䳔㽕䖛ᕔ᮹ᳳⱘ䴆ֵᙃˈ䇋㘨㋏compliance_hk@. 㕢:ᴀⷨおਞ⬅Ёֵ䆕ࠌ㓪ࠊDŽᴀⷨおਞ㕢⬅Ёֵ䆕ࠌ˄CITIC Securities International USA, LLC˄ϟ⿄“CSI-USA”˅䰸˅CLSA group of companies˄CLSA Americas, LLC˄ϟ⿄“CLSA Americas”˅䰸˅ҙヺড়㕢lj1934ᑈ䆕ࠌѸᯧ⊩NJ15a-6㾘߭ᅮНϨߚ߿ϢCSI-USACLSA Americas䖯㸠Ѹᯧⱘ“Џ㽕㕢ᴎᵘᡩ䌘㗙”ߚথDŽᇍ䑿㕢ⱘӏԩҎথ䗕ᴀⷨおਞᇚϡ㹿㾚ЎᇍᴀਞЁ᠔䆘䆎ⱘ䆕ࠌ䖯㸠Ѹᯧⱘᓎ䆂ᇍᴀਞЁ᠔䕑ӏԩ㾖⚍ⱘ㚠кDŽӏԩҢЁֵ䆕ࠌϢCLSA group of companies㦋ᕫᴀⷨおਞⱘᬊ㗙བᵰᏠᳯ㕢ѸᯧᴀਞЁᦤঞⱘӏԩ䆕ࠌᑨᔧߚ߿㘨㋏CSI-USACLSA AmericasDŽ 㣅˖ᴀ↉“㣅”ໄᯢফ㣅⊩ᕟⲥㅵᑊձ㣅⊩ᕟ㾷䞞DŽᴀⷨおਞ㣅乏㹿ᔦЎ㧹䫔᭛ӊˈᅗϡᣝlj㣅䞥㵡㸠Ўㅵ⧚ݠNJ᠔⬠ᅮǃᮼᦤछᡩ䌘ⷨおਞ⣀ゟᗻⱘ⊩ᕟ㽕ӊ㗠᪄ݭˈѺϡফӏԩ⽕ℶᡩ䌘ⷨおਞথᏗࠡ䖯㸠Ѹᯧⱘ䰤ࠊDŽᴀⷨおਞⲳ⬅ CLSA (UK)থᏗˈ䆹݀ৌ⬅䞥㵡㸠Ўㅵ⧚ሔᥜᴗᑊফ݊ㅵ⧚DŽᴀⷨおਞ䩜ᇍlj2000 ᑈ䞥㵡᳡ࡵᏖഎ⊩2005 ᑈ˄䞥㵡ҟ˅ҸNJ19ᴵ᠔⬠ᅮⱘᡩ䌘ᮍ䴶᳝ϧϮ㒣偠ⱘҎˈϨ⍝ঞࠄⱘӏԩᡩ䌘⌏ࡼҙ䩜ᇍℸ㉏ҎDŽ㢹ᙼϡᡩ䌘ⱘϧϮ㒣偠ˈ䇋࣓ձ䌪ᴀⷨおਞⱘܻᆍDŽ ϔ㠀ᗻໄᯢ ᴀⷨおਞᇍѢᬊӊҎ㗠㿔ሲ催ᑺᴎᆚাˈ᳝ᬊӊҎᠡ㛑Փ⫼DŽᴀⷨおਞᑊ䴲ᛣথ䗕ǃথᏗ㒭ᔧഄ⊩ᕟⲥㅵ㾘߭ϟϡܕ䆌䆹ⷨおਞথ䗕ǃথᏗⱘҎਬDŽᴀⷨおਞҙЎখ㗗П⫼ˈӏԩഄऎഛϡᑨ㹿㾚Ўߎଂӏԩ䆕ࠌ䞥㵡Ꮉⱘ㽕㑺ˈ㗙䆕ࠌ䞥㵡ᎹѸᯧⱘ㽕㑺䙔䇋DŽЁֵ䆕ࠌᑊϡᬊӊҎᬊࠄᴀਞ㗠㾚݊ЎЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘᅶ᠋DŽᴀਞ᠔ࣙⱘ㾖⚍ঞᓎ䆂ᑊ㗗㰥Ͼ߿ᅶ᠋ⱘ⡍⅞⢊މǃⳂᷛ䳔㽕ˈϡᑨ㹿㾚Ўᇍ⡍ᅮᅶ᠋݇Ѣ⡍ᅮ䆕ࠌ䞥㵡Ꮉⱘᓎ䆂ㄪ⬹DŽᇍѢᴀਞЁᦤঞⱘӏԩ䆕ࠌ䞥㵡ᎹⱘߚᵤˈᴀਞⱘᬊӊҎ乏ֱᣕ㞾䑿ⱘ⣀ゟ߸ᮁDŽ ᴀਞ᠔䕑䌘᭭ⱘᴹ⑤㹿䅸Ўᰃৃ䴴ⱘˈԚЁֵ䆕ࠌϡֱ䆕݊ޚ⹂ᗻᅠᭈᗻDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌᑊϡᇍՓ⫼ᴀਞ᠔ࣙⱘᴤ᭭ѻ⫳ⱘӏԩⳈ䯈ᤳ༅Ϣℸ᳝݇ⱘ݊Ҫᤳ༅ᡓᢙӏԩ䋷ӏDŽᴀਞᦤঞⱘӏԩ䆕ࠌഛৃ㛑᳝䞡ⱘ亢䰽ˈৃ㛑ϡᯧবपҹঞϡ䗖⫼᠔᳝ᡩ䌘㗙DŽᴀਞ᠔ᦤঞⱘ䆕ࠌ䞥㵡ᎹⱘӋḐǃӋؐঞᬊⲞৃ㛑Ӯফ∛⥛ᕅડ㗠⊶ࡼDŽ䖛ᕔⱘϮ㒽ᑊϡ㛑ҷ㸼ᴹⱘ㸼⦄DŽ ᴀਞ᠔䕑ⱘ䌘᭭ǃ㾖⚍ঞ乘⌟ഛডњЁֵ䆕ࠌ᳔߱থᏗ䆹ਞ᮹ᳳᔧ᮹ߚᵤᏜⱘ߸ᮁˈৃҹϡথߎ䗮ⶹⱘᚙމϟخߎᬍˈѺৃՓ⫼ϡৠ؛䆒ᷛޚǃ䞛⫼ϡৠ㾖⚍ߚᵤᮍ⊩㗠ϢЁֵ䆕ࠌ݊ᅗϮࡵ䚼䮼ǃऩԡ䰘ሲᴎᵘࠊ㉏Ԑⱘ݊Ҫᴤ᭭ᯊ᠔㒭ߎⱘᛣ㾕ϡৠ㗙ⳌডDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌᑊϡᡓᢙᦤ⼎ᴀਞⱘᬊӊҎ⊼ᛣ䆹ㄝᴤ᭭ⱘ䋷ӏDŽЁֵ䆕ࠌ䗮䖛ֵᙃ䱨⾏ࠊЁֵ䆕ࠌݙ䚼ϔϾϾ乚ඳⱘֵᙃЁֵ䆕ࠌ݊Ҫ乚ඳǃऩԡǃ䲚ಶঞ݊Ҫ䰘ሲᴎᵘⱘ⌕ࡼDŽ䋳䋷᪄ݭᴀਞⱘߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀⬅ⷨお䚼䮼ㅵ⧚ሖЁֵ䆕ࠌ催㑻ㅵ⧚ሖܼᴗއᅮDŽߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀ϡᰃѢЁֵ䆕ࠌᡩ䌘䫊㸠ᬊܹ㗠ᅮˈԚᰃˈߚᵤᏜⱘ㭾䝀ৃ㛑Ϣᡩ㸠ᭈԧᬊܹ᳝݇ˈ݊Ёࣙᣀᡩ䌘䫊㸠ǃ䫔ଂϢѸᯧϮࡵDŽ 㢹Ёֵ䆕ࠌҹⱘ䞥㵡ᴎᵘথ䗕ᴀਞˈ߭⬅䆹䞥㵡ᴎᵘЎℸথ䗕㸠Ўᡓᢙܼ䚼䋷ӏDŽ䆹ᴎᵘⱘᅶ᠋ᑨ㘨㋏䆹ᴎᵘҹѸᯧᴀਞЁᦤঞⱘ䆕ࠌ㽕∖㦋ᙝ䆺㒚ֵᙃDŽᴀਞϡᵘ៤Ёֵ䆕ࠌথ䗕ᴀਞ䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋ᦤկⱘᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌҹঞЁֵ䆕ࠌⱘϾ催㑻㘠ਬǃ㨷џਬᎹѺϡЎ˄ࠡ䗄䞥㵡ᴎᵘПᅶ᠋˅Փ⫼ᴀਞਞ䕑ᯢⱘݙᆍѻ⫳ⱘⳈ䯈ᤳ༅ᡓᢙӏԩ䋷ӏDŽ 㒣Ёֵ䆕ࠌџܜк䴶ᥜᴗˈӏԩҎϡᕫҹӏԩⳂⱘࠊǃথ䗕䫔ଂᴀਞDŽ Ёֵ䆕ࠌ2014⠜ᴗ᠔᳝DŽֱ⬭ϔߛᴗ߽DŽ
