山西财经大学硕士学位论文巨灾保险的风险分散机制及巨灾债券定价研究姓名：方玉婷申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：沈沛龙2010-06-01
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 햪튪?뷼쓪살ꎬ뗘헰ꆢ몣킥뗈쳘듳ퟔ좻퓖몦욵랢ꎬ쳘뇰쫇쿱컒맺헢퇹믹뒡짨쪩뷏닮ꆢ펦벱뒢놸늻ퟣꆢ놣쿕쏜뛈욫뗍뗄맺볒ꎬ뻞퓖쫆뇘룸맺볒뫍쏱훚퓬돉컞램풤맀뗄쯰쪧ꆣ㈰〸쓪돵랢짺뗄뗍컂폪톩뇹뚳퓖몦뫍ꆰ㔮ㄲꆱ뒨듳뗘헰ꎬ퓬돉뗄횱뷓뺭볃쯰쪧붫뷼〰?틚ꎬ믹놾평헾뢮늹뎥ꎬ퓖쟸훘붨뗄훍뫳룸쫜퓖죋쏱퓬돉뗄헳춴훁뷱쓑틔뢧욽ꆣ놣쿕ퟷ캪튻훖쫐뎡뮯뗄럧쿕틆믺훆ꆢ짧믡뮥훺믺훆뫍짧믡맜샭믺훆ꎬ펦돤럖랢믓웤릦쓜ퟷ폃ꎬ틔헾뢮캪훷떼ꎬ틔짌튵놣쿕캪횧독ꎬ틔맺볒뻈볃ꆢ짧믡뻨훺ꆢ짧믡듈짆캪늹돤뗄뛠닣듎뗄뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭쳥쾵뗄붨솢틑쳡짏죕돌ꆣ붨솢뗘헰놣쿕뗈뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈ꎬ튻랽쏦쓜쪹퓢쫜뻞퓖쯰쪧뗄쏱훚벰쪱뗃떽뺭볃늹뎥ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦튲쓜복쟡맺볒닆헾톹솦ꎬ늻쪧캪듙쪹퓖쟸톸쯙훘붨ꆢ믖뢴뗄튻훖탂뻙듫ꆣ?뻞퓖럧쿕랢짺욵싊뷏뗍ꎬ좺훚춶놣짌튵쿕뗄틢풸늻잿ꎬ춬쪱뻞퓖퓬돉쯰쪧돌뛈듳ꎬ뻍컒맺놣쿕릫쮾뗄쪵솦짐쓑틔돐떣뻞퓖듸살뗄뻞듳샭엢ꆣ럧쿕첫듳ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾늻풸돐놣뗄쿖쪵쪹뻞퓖놣쿕췆탐퓢폶떽퇏훘뗄욿뺱ꆣ믹폚헢튻쫂쪵ꎬ놾컄냑뒥뷇짬쿲첽쳖죧뫎붨솢뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꎬ틔삩듳놣쿕릫쮾뛔뻞퓖럧쿕뗄돐놣쓜솦ꎬ캪짧믡쳡릩좫랽캻뗄놣헏ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ쒿잰톧쫵뷧뚼쳖싛샻폃뻞퓖햮좯살럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ뛸뻞퓖햮좯쓜럱쮳샻랢탐ꎬ뚨볛컊쳢쫇뇘탫뷢뻶뗄쫗튪뮷뷚ꎬ틲듋ꎬ놾컄늻뷶뛔뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆뷸탐쿠맘뗄첽쳖ꎬ뛸쟒튲뛔뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛뷸탐쇋튻뚨뗄뒴탂탔퇐뺿ꆣ?쫗쿈ꎬ놾컄듓좫쏦럖컶맺쓚췢뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹ힴ뿶돶랢ꎬ췚뻲컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕훍뫳뗄짮닣풭틲ꆣ웤듎ꎬ듓샭싛닣쏦쿪뺡웊컶쇋럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕뗄솽훖랽쪽ꆪꆪ퓙놣쿕뫍뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯ꎬ뗃돶뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯쫇떱잰럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕ꆢ쪵쿖뻞퓖놣쿕뻈훺늹뎥뗄튻훖뿉닙ퟷ탔뷏잿뗄탂쮼슷ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ놾컄뛔뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷훐펦폃ퟮ캪맣랺뗄뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꎬ룹뻝뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듳킡짨볆쇋컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뫍쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ늢뒴퓬탔뗘퓋폃놣쿕 1
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뺫쯣뚨볛램ꎨ힢훘쟳웚췻쯷엢뛮ꎩ캪뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐뚨볛ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ짮죫첽뺿뻞퓖놣쿕퓚컒맺췆탐뗄뿉탐탔늢뛔컒맺놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뻞퓖놣쿕쯹쏦쇙뗄럧쿕죧뫎뷸탐틆ꆢ럖즢쳡돶쇋붨짨탔뗄닎뾼틢볻ꆣ?ꆾ맘볼듊ꆿ?뻞퓖놣쿕??뻞퓖햮좯†뚨볛†럧쿕럖즢믺훆??? 2
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 Abstract In recent years, earthquakes, tsunamis and other largely natural disasters have occurred frequently. Catastrophe events cause unpredicted losses to the state and the public, especially in our country which lacks of contingency reserves, has poor infrastructure and low insurance density. The south snowstorm disaster in the beginning of 2008 and “” When-Chuan earthquake had caused by 1 trillion losses and compensated basically by the government. The pains caused by the delay of reconstruction are still unable to be healed. Insurance as a market-based risk transfer mechanism, social solidarity mechanism and social management mechanism, should give full play of their functions. The establishment of multi-level catastrophe risk management system that commercial insurance as the support, Government-led, social contributions and social charity to supplement has been put on the agenda. On the one hand the establishment of catastrophe insurance system such as earthquake insurance can make the people of suffered catastrophic losses gain economic compensation timely, on the other hand it can reduce the national financial pressure. So it may be a new kind initiative to promote the rapid reconstruction and rehabilitation of disaster areas. The frequency of catastrophe risk is low, the wish of the people insuring commercial insurance is not strong and the extent of losses caused by catastrophe is very big. So we are difficult to bear the tremendous catastrophe claims to the strength of our insurance companies. The catastrophe risk is too great and the insurance companies are reluctant to assume. So the implementation of catastrophe insurance encounters serious bottleneck. Based on this fact, the purpose of this paper is to explore how to establish the risk spreading mechanism of catastrophe risk so as to expand insurance company catastrophe risk underwriting capacity and provide comprehensive protection. In addition, recently the academic discusses using catastrophe bonds to spread risk. However, the issuance of catastrophe bonds is smooth or not, pricing issues must be resolved first. Therefore, this paper not only discusses the catastrophe insurance risk spreading mechanism, but also has a innovative research on the catastrophe bonds pricing. Firstly, this paper analyzes the development situation of catastrophe insurance at home and abroad, discovers the reason why the catastrophe insurance industry in China is behind. Secondly, this paper analyses two ways of the spread catastrophic risk from the theoretical level—reinsurance and catastrophe risk securitization and reaches the fact that the catastrophe risk securitization is a workable new ideas to spread catastrophic risk currently. Thirdly, we study the catastrophe bond one of the most widely used of catastrophe risk securitization. This part is to address this issue by designing five kinds of short-term catastrophe bonds and four kinds of long-term catastrophe bonds on the size of the risk investors undertaken when the catastrophic events occur. Then we use 3
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 creatively of actuarial pricing method (emphasis on expectations of the amount claimed) to price for the catastrophe bonds. Finally, we explore in depth the feasibility of introducing and the ways of its effective implementation and put forward constructive opinions how to transfer or disperse the risk of our insurance companies underwriting catastrophe risk. ꆾKey Wordsꆿcatastrophe insurance catastrophe bond pricing risk dispersive mechanism 4
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ??즽컷닆뺭듳톧?톧캻싛컄풭뒴탔짹쏷? 놾죋횣훘짹쏷ꎺ쯹돊붻뗄톧캻싛컄ꎬ쫇놾죋퓚떼쪦뗄횸떼쿂ꎬ뛀솢뷸탐퇐뺿릤ퟷ쯹좡뗃뗄돉맻ꆣ돽컄훐틑뺭힢쏷틽폃뗄쓚죝췢ꎬ놾싛컄늻냼몬죎뫎웤쯻룶죋믲벯쳥틑뺭랢뇭믲킴맽뗄ퟷ욷돉맻ꆣ뛔놾컄뗄퇐뺿쯹ퟶ돶훘튪릱쿗뗄룶죋뫍벯쳥ꎬ뻹틑퓚컄훐틔쏷좷랽쪽뇪쏷ꆣ놾죋췪좫틢쪶떽놾짪쏷뗄램싉뷡맻평놾죋돐떣ꆣ? 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 ??????? 1
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ??즽컷닆뺭듳톧?톧캻싛컄냦좨쪹폃쫚좨쫩? 놾톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟췪좫쇋뷢톧킣폐맘놣맜ꆢ쪹폃톧캻싛컄뗄맦뚨ꎬ춬틢톧킣놣쇴늢쿲맺볒폐맘늿쏅믲믺릹쯍붻싛컄뗄뢴펡볾뫍뗧ퟓ냦ꎬ퓊탭싛컄놻닩퓄뫍뷨퓄ꆣ놾죋쫚좨즽컷닆뺭듳톧뿉틔붫놾톧캻싛컄뗄좫늿믲늿럖쓚죝뇠죫폐맘쫽뻝뿢뷸탐볬쯷ꎬ뿉틔닉폃펰펡ꆢ쯵펡믲즨쏨뗈뢴훆쫖뛎놣듦뫍믣뇠놾톧캻싛컄ꆣ 놾톧캻싛컄쫴폚놣쏜ꇵꎬ늻놣쏜ꇵꆣ퓚 쓪뷢쏜뫳쫊폃놾쫚좨쫩ꆣ ꎨ쟫퓚틔짏랽뿲쓚듲ꆰꇌꆱꎩ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 횸떼뷌쪦잩쏻ꎺ 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 2
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ??탷싛?놾헂ퟷ캪놾컄뗄탷싛늿럖ꎬ훷튪쫇뛔놾컄뗄톡쳢놳뺰폫틢틥ꆢ맺쓚췢컄쿗룅샀ꆢ퇐뺿쮼슷폫뒴탂횮뒦뫍놾컄뗄헂뷚낲업뗈쯄룶쿠뛔뛀솢뗄쓚죝뷸탐쇋뷩짜ꆣ?ㄮ??톡쳢놳뺰폫틢틥?뷼쓪살ꎬ쯦ퟅ쫀뷧뺭볃뗄돖탸랢햹뫍죋쏇뛔ퟔ좻풴뗄맽뛈뾪닉ꎬ좫쟲뻞퓖욵랢뛸쟒평듋퓬돉뗄쯰쪧튲풽살풽퇏훘ꆣ컒맺럹풱쇉삫ꎬ뗘샭뿧뛈듳ꎬ웸뫲뛠뇤ꎬퟔ좻뮷뺳벰뗘훊릹퓬벫웤뢴퓓ꎬ쫇쫀뷧짏ퟔ좻퓖몦ퟮ퇏훘뗄짙쫽맺볒횮튻ꎬ뻟폐퓖몦훖샠뛠ꆢ랢짺욵싊룟ꆢ럖늼뗘폲맣ꆢ퓬돉쯰쪧듳뗄쳘뗣ꆣ쳘뇰쫇㈰쫀볍㤰쓪듺틔살ꎬퟔ좻퓖몦퓬돉뗄뺭볃쯰쪧돊쏷쿔짏짽쟷쫆ꎬ룹뻝쏱헾늿뗄쏱헾쫂튵랢햹춳볆놨룦ꎬ뷼쓪살컒맺쎿쓪틲퓖쓑쯹듸살뗄뺭볃쯰쪧믹놾캬돖퓚㈰〰틚풪ퟳ폒ꎬ풶룟폚㤰쓪듺틔잰쓪뻹쯰쪧캪㔰?뛠틚풪뗄쮮욽ꆣ쳘뇰쫇㈰〸쓪ꎬ?퓂랢짺퓚컒맺쓏랽뗄㔰쓪늻폶뗄듳톩퓖ꎬ퓬돉뗄횱뷓뺭볃쯰쪧듯ㄵ?㘮?틚풪ꎻ?퓂ㄲ죕랢짺퓚쯄뒨뒨뗄듳뗘헰ꎬ퓬돉뗄횱뷓뺭볃쯰쪧폐㠴㔱틚풪ꎬ쯀췶죋쫽폐㘹〰?뛠죋ꎬ쪧ퟙ죋쫽폐ㄸ〰?뛠죋ꎬ볓퓚튻웰폐㠷〰?뛠죋ꆣ?쯦ퟅ컒맺뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ뻞퓖뛔죋쏱퓬돉뗄펰쿬폺살폺듳ꎬ죧뫎뛔뻞퓖럧쿕뷸탐맜샭틑뺭돉캪쇋튻룶쫀뷧탔뗄뿎쳢ꆣ평폚놣쿕ퟷ캪튻훖훘튪뗄럧쿕맜샭랽램ꎬ뻟폐럀랶럧쿕ꆢ놣횤짧믡컈뚨ꆢ쪹쫜퓖뗄웳튵뫍룶죋벰쪱믖뢴짺닺뺭펪뗈ퟷ폃ꎬ탭뛠랢듯맺볒펦뛔뻞퓖럧쿕뗄듫쪩뻍쫇붨솢뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈ꎬ춨맽놣쿕ꆢ퓙놣쿕뗈랽쪽맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕ꆣ?떫쫇ꎬ컒맺놣쿕튵웰늽췭ꎬ놣쿕뢲룇쏦뫍돐놣쓜솦폫맺볊쮮욽쿠뇈죔뷏뗍ꎬ퓚뻞퓖놣쿕쫐뎡랽쏦뇭쿖룼춻돶ꆣ죧ꎬ㈰〶쓪좫쫀뷧뻞퓖쯰쪧캪㐸?틚쏀풪ꎬ놣쿕엢뢶캪ㄵ?틚ꎬ엢뢶싊캪㌳⸱?ꎬ벴뻞퓖퓬돉뗄뺭볃쯰쪧훐ꎬ욽뻹폐?㌮㌥쓜뗃떽놣쿕엢뎥ꎻ㈰〷쓪틲뻞퓖퓬돉뗄닆닺쯰쪧퓚㜰?틚쏀풪ퟳ폒ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뗄쯰쪧듯㈷?틚쏀풪ꎬ엢뢶싊캪㌹⸴?ꎻ떽㈰〸쓪좫쟲틲뻞퓖떼훂뗄뺭볃쯰쪧듯㈶㤰틚쏀풪ꎬ웤훐㔲?틚쏀풪뗃떽닆닺놣쿕뗄놣헏ꎬ엢뢶싊풼캪㈰?ꎬ폫췹쓪쿠뇈ꎬ놣쿕엢뢶싊붵뗍ꎬ훷튪쫇쫜컒맺떱쓪쯄뒨뗘헰놣쿕엢뢶싊뗍뗄펰쿬ꆣ뛸컒맺㈰〸쓪?퓂럝뗄톩퓖내놣쿕풤맀뗄엢뎥짏쿞㠵틚풪볆쯣ꎬ엢뢶싊튲횻폐㜮㘥ꎬ쇭췢ꎬ룃쓪뗄㔮ㄲ쯄뒨듳뗘헰ꎬ엢뢶싊튲늻ퟣ??ꆣ벫뗍뗄뻞퓖놣쿕엢뢶싊쮮욽놳뫳ꎬ헛짤돶떱잰컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕믺훆듦퓚훮뛠컊쳢ꎬ웤훐튻룶뫜훘튪뗄컊쳢쫇컒맺쒿잰뮹쎻폐붨솢웰췪놸뗄뻞퓖럧쿕놣쿕쳥쾵ꎬ놣쿕퓚뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭훐뗄ퟷ폃뮹캴뗃떽ퟣ릻뗄훘쫓ꎬ춬쪱뮹평폚놣쿕릫쮾 1
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 쫜떽돐놣쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡램퓲ꆢ닺욷벼쫵짨볆뾪랢뗈뗄쿞훆ꎬ듳늿럖놣쿕릫쮾뚼뻜뻸돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚컒맺ꎬ뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺뫳ꎬ죋쏇냑쯰쪧돐떣퓰죎뚼별췐폚헾뢮닆헾ꎬ떫쫇평폚컒맺쫇랢햹훐맺볒ꎬ닆헾쫕죫쿠뛔살쮵늻쫇쓇쎴뗄돤ퟣꎬ뿶쟒컒맺뗄웤쯻쇬폲튲뚼탨튪닆헾뗄듳솦횧돖ꎬ쯹틔닆헾쫕죫뛔폚쎿쓪뗄퓖뫳뻈훺살쮵뇈뷏폐쿞ꎬ룹뻝싀횾폂ꋙ뗄퇐뺿ꎬ듓ㄹ㤰쓪틔살ꎬ맺볒닆헾뻈퓖횧돶햼횱뷓뺭볃쯰쪧뗄뇈훘튻횱뻍퓚ㄥ?㌥횮볤ꎬ뛸쟒횻쓜싺ퟣ퓖쏱뗄믹놾짺믮ꎬ폫뻞퓖랢짺횮뫳퓖몦쯹퓬돉뗄쯰쪧쿠뇈ꎬ쪵퓚쫇놭쮮뎵킽ꆣ틲듋ꎬ펦룃폐킧뗘랢믓짌튵놣쿕뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ?뻞퓖랢짺욵싊뗍ꎬ쯰쪧룟ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾컞솦돐떣웤좫늿뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ뇘탫춨맽튻뚨뗄춾뺶냑늻쓜릻돐떣뗄럧쿕럖즢돶좥ꆣ놾컄솢ퟣ폚짌튵놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ퇐뺿뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꎬ뛔폚쳡룟놣쿕릫쮾돐놣쓜솦틔벰뮯뷢헻룶짧믡뻞퓖럧쿕폐뫜훘튪뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ?ㄮ?퇐뺿컄쿗ퟛ쫶?ㄮ㈮??맺췢컄쿗ퟛ쫶?愮?뻞퓖놣쿕샭싛뗄퇐뺿?뺡맜죋쏇튻횱죏쪶떽뺭볃믮뚯럧쿕뗄웕뇩탔ꎬ떫뛠쓪살뛔쯹맛달쿖쿳뗄뺭볃뷢쫍죔평좷뚨탔쒣탍햼뻝훷떼뗘캻ꎬ틲듋ꎬ놣쿕샭싛뗄샺쪷뷏뛌ꆣ퓚퓧웚헽쪽뷩짜뺭볃럖컶훐럧쿕뫍늻좷뚨탔뗄훸ퟷ훐ꎬ놣쿕폐쪱놻뾴ퟷ믲폐짌욷ꎨcontingent goodꎩꎬ폐쪱놻떱ퟷ폫뛄늩쿠맘뗄룅쓮쳖싛ꆣ퓚1960쓪횮잰ꎬ뺭볃톧컄쿗뫜듳돌뛈짏좱랦뛔놣쿕쫐뎡쫴탔믲헢킩쫐뎡짏룶죋듺샭죋뺭볃탐캪쫴탔뗄럖컶ꆣ20쫀볍60쓪듺퓧웚ꎬ뿏쓡쮹ꆤ낢싞(Arrow)뫍뾨뛻ꆤ늩뛻웦(Karl H. Borch)랢뇭쇋벸욪훘튪뗄컄헂ꎬ뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇놣쿕믮뚯뗄쿖듺뺭볃럖컶뗄랢뛋ꆣ웤훐ꎬ쳘뇰쫇ퟔ1961쓪뾨뛻ꆤ늩뛻웦(Karl HꆤBorch)붫럫ꆤ억틁싼ꎨJꆤ Von Neu-mannꎩ뫍쒪룹쪩쳘뛷ꎨO Morgenstemꎩ뒴솢뗄웚췻킧폃샭싛ꎨexpected utility theoryꎩ틽죫놣쿕톧틔살ꎬ놣쿕룷룶쇬폲뗄퇐뺿뚼쫇퓚웚췻킧폃샭싛뿲볜쿂뷸탐뗄ꎬ벴볙짨놣쿕죋뫍놻놣쿕죋뗄럧쿕욫뫃싺ퟣꆰ뛀솢탔릫샭ꆱꎬ듓뛸솽헟럖뇰듦퓚캨튻뗄킧폃몯쫽믲킧폃몯쫽ퟥꆣ떫쫇ꎬ쯦ퟅ뻞퓖럧쿕뗄욵랱돶쿖뫍퓖쓑맦쒣뗄삩듳뫍죋쏇뛔ꆰ뛀솢탔릫샭ꆱ뗄훊틉ꎬ럧쿕뫍늻좷뚨탔뻶닟샭싛퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺뗃떽쇋춻량쏍뷸뗄랢햹ꎬ쿈뫳붨솢쇋뛔얼샭싛ꎨYaari’dual theoryꎩꆢ풤웚킧폃샭싛(anticipated utility theory )뫍탲킧폃샭싛(rank-depentent utility theory)ꆣ뻶닟샭싛뗄랢햹폫췪짆 ꋙ 싀횾폂?춸맽뒨뗘헰뾴컒맺뛔뻞퓖럧쿕쯰쪧늹뎥믺훆뗄톡퓱?즽뚫짧믡뿆톧[J]ꎬ2008?10?P60-67? 2
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 쪹뻞퓖놣쿕퇐뺿춻웆웚췻킧폃샭싛ꎬ돤럖쳥쿖뻞퓖럧쿕쳘뗣ꎬ쪹뷢뻶뻞퓖럧쿕놣쿕쿠맘컊쳢돉캪뿉쓜ꆣ b. 뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿 퓚퓧웚뗄뻞퓖놣쿕훐ꎬ웤럧쿕훷튪퓚퓙놣쿕쫐뎡훐뷸탐럖즢ꆣ뛔폚뒫춳뗄뻞퓖럧쿕럖즢믺훆——퓙놣쿕뗄샭싛첽쳖틑뺭쿠떱좫쏦뫍짮죫ꎬ컄쿗튲늻쪤쎶뻙ꆣ뫳살퓚1989——1993쓪볤좫쟲랢짺쇋잰쯹캴폐뗄뻞퓖쯰쪧ꎬ쪹뗃맺볊퓙놣쿕릫쮾쯰쪧닒훘ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾놾뷰벱쯙복짙ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뎥뢶쓜솦뇈싊쿂붵ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ퓚튻듎뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺뫳ꎬ퓙놣쿕볛룱붫톸쯙짏짽ꎬ헢훖짏짽뗄볛룱뿉쓜룟듯웚췻쯰쪧뗄쫽쪮놶ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ퓙놣쿕뗄놣헏랶캧튲붫듳럹뛈복짙ꎬ죧룹뻝Froot(1999)ꋙ뛔듳솿뗄퓙놣쿕뫏풼뷸탐뗄럖컶ꎬ랢쿖ꆰ퓙놣쿕놣헏쯦ퟅ뻞퓖쫂볾뗄쯰쪧럹뛈뛸듳럹뛈쿂붵ꎬ뛔폚퓬돉80틚쏀풪쯰쪧뗄쫂볾뗄놣헏쮮욽뗍폚30%ꆱꆣ 쯦ퟅ뻞퓖럧쿕랢짺욵싊뗄퓶볓뫍쯰쪧뗄볓듳ꎬ놣쿕튵퓚즥쪧쿠떱뿉맛뗄돐놣쓜솦뗄춬쪱폖쏦쇙ퟅ죕틦퓶듳뗄럧쿕놩슶ꎬ헢훖놩슶틑뺭퇏훘뗘췾킲떽웤돐놣쓜솦ꎬ볓횮뻞퓖퓙놣쿕뗄볛룱뗄짏짽뫍놣헏랶캧뗄복짙ꎬ뇘탫톰쟳탂뗄뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢랽쪽ꆣ 쫂쪵짏ꎬ퓧퓚1973쓪ꎬ쏀맺톧헟싞늮쳘ꆤ룪컷ꎨRobert Goshayꎩ뫍샭닩뗂ꆤ즣뗀ꎨRichard Sandorꎩ뻍뾪쪼쇋놣쿕퇜짺닺욷뗄쮼뾼ꆣ쯻쏇퓚1973쓪랢뇭쇋튻욪맘폚놣쿕퇜짺닺욷뗄싛컄ꆶ릹붨퓙놣쿕웚믵쫐뎡뗄뿉탐탔퇐뺿ꆷꎬ퓚룃욪싛컄훐ꎬ쯻쏇싊쿈첽쳖쇋놣쿕쫐뎡폫놾쫐뎡뷡뫏뗄컊쳢ꎬ쳡돶붫퓙놣쿕럧쿕틆훁놾쫐뎡ꎬ쾣췻춨맽럧쿕횤좯뮯믲놣쿕퇜짺닺욷뷢뻶퓙놣쿕쫐뎡돐놣쓜솦늻ퟣ뗄컊쳢ꎬ뷸뛸럖즢뻞퓖놣쿕쫐뎡훐뗄럧쿕ꆣ쯤좻룃컄헂퓚떱쪱늢쎻폐뗃떽쿬펦ꎬ떫쫇쯦ퟅ뻅쪮쓪듺뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢컊쳢죕틦춻돶ꎬ죋쏇훘탂쳡돶뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕횤좯뮯뗄릹쿫ꆣ늢쟒퓚1990쓪ꎬ횥볓룧웚믵붻틗쯹ꎨCBOTꎩ헽쪽쿲볠맜늿쏅쳡돶놣쿕웚믵뗄짪쟫ꆣ 퓚1992쓪12퓂횥볓룧웚믵붻틗쯹ꎨCBOTꎩ췆돶뻞퓖놣쿕웚믵뫳ꎬ1993쓪췆돶쇋뻞퓖놣쿕닮볛웚좨ꎬ뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯훰붥탋웰ꆣ폐늻짙톧헟뛔듋뷸탐쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿ꆣ D’Arcy뫍France(1993)뛔놣쿕웚믵뫏풼퓋ퟷ돌탲ꆢ볛룱뗄퓋뚯맦싉뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꎬ늢뛔놣쿕웚믵폫퓙놣쿕뷸탐쇋뇈뷏퇐뺿ꆣFlanigan뫍Scott(1994)퇐뺿쇋죧뫎샻폃웚믵웚좨살룼킧뗘틆놣쿕죋럧쿕뗄랽램ꆣHimick(1995)횤쏷쇋PCS뻞퓖웚좨쫇쇣ß닺ꎬ늢쮵쏷쇋쯼뛔뛠퇹뮯춶뗄뫃뒦ꆣGorvette Richard(1999ꋚ)춨맽뛔늻춬뗄횤좯뮯닺욷뗄뷩짜ꎬ쳖싛쇋뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯뗄퇝뷸맽돌ꎬ늢쳡돶쇋뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯캴살랢햹쟷쫆뗄죴룉컊쳢ꆣ ꋙ Froot, Kenneth, The Market for Catastrophe Risk: A Clinical Examination, NBER Working Paper Series, National Bureau of Economic Research. 1999 ꋚ Gorvette Richard, Insurance Securitization: The Development of a New Asset Class, 3
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 Gummius뫍Weiss(2000)ꋙ듓탅쾢뛔돆ꆢ볛룱랢쿖뫍볛룱훜웚뗈랽쏦뛔횤좯쫐뎡폫놣쿕쫐뎡뷸탐쇋뇈뷏ꎬ횸돶쇋횤좯뮯뗄훮뛠뫃뒦ꆣ Cummins(2007)ꋚ퓚튻욪싛컄훐킴떽ꎺꆰ뻞퓖햮좯ퟔ듓떮짺틔살늻뛏랢햹ꎬ뛸쟒ꎬ뷼벸쓪쯦ퟅ놾쫐뎡뫍놣쿕쫐뎡뗄뿬쯙죚뫏ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯컈늽뿬쯙퓶뎤ꆣꆱ c. 뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛 뛔뻞퓖햮좯뗄뫏샭뚨볛쫇뻞퓖햮좯돉릦랢탐뗄잰쳡쳵볾횮튻ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ죋쏇뛔뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛컊쳢퓋폃쳗샻믲컞쳗샻풭샭뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꆣBaryshnikov et al. (1998)룹뻝뻞퓖쯰쪧횸쫽춳볆쳘헷ꎬ쳡돶쇋튻룶퓚솬탸붻틗쳵볾쿂캪뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛뗄컞쳗샻뚨볛뿲볜ꆣCox뫍Pedersen(2001)샻폃뻹뫢뚨볛샭싛퓚컞쳗샻뗄쳵볾쿂쳖싛뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛뗄랽램ꆣBurnecki뫍Kukla(2003)펦폃쇋Baryshnikov et al.(1998)뗄컞쳗샻뚨볛랽램캪튻룶쇣쾢뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐뚨볛ꆣ춬퇹ꎬVaugirard(2003)폃쏉쳘뾨싞랽램뫍쯦믺샻싊캪뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛ꆣPoncet뫍Vugirard(2002)퓚쯦믺샻싊뿲볜쿂ꎬ뗃돶쇋럇뻞퓖햮좯뗄쳗샻뚨볛쒣탍ꎬVaugirard(2003)냑Ponce뫍Vugirard(2002)뗄뚨볛쒣탍뷸튻늽펦폃떽뻞퓖쫂볾훐ꎬ룸돶쇋놣쿕솬뷡햮좯뗄뚨볛ꆣ 돽쇋룹뻝쳗샻믲컞쳗샻풭샭살캪뻞퓖럧쿕뚨볛췢ꎬ튲폐믺릹뫍볒훂솦폚쫐뎡떼쿲뗄볛룱ꆣ죧ꎬLFC쒣탍평쏀맺튵뗄훂솦폚럧쿕뗄횤좯뮯뗄Lane Financial 릫쮾ퟜ닃Morton lane늩쪿퓚뛔뻞퓖햮좯쫐뎡볛룱뷸탐쫽쓪맛달뫳쳡돶살뗄ꆣ2008쓪9퓂ꎬMorton Lane뫍Olivier Mabul퓚웤ퟮ탂뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆶ뻞퓖럧쿕뚨볛ꆷꋛ훐ꎬ룹뻝놾쫐뎡훐ꎨ1997-Q12008ꎩ250횧뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ럖컶뗃돶펰쿬뻞퓖햮좯볛룱뗄훷튪틲쯘폐ꎬ잱퓚캣쿕ꆢ풤웚쯰쪧ꆢ놾쫐뎡훜웚ꆢ붻틗럧쿕뗈ꎬ늢틀뻝쯹춳볆뗄쫽뻝볆쯣돶뻞퓖햮좯볛룱폫헢킩틲쯘뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ ㄮ㈮㈠맺쓚컄쿗ퟛ쫶?퓚컒맺ꎬ쯤좻쒿잰놣쿕튵랢햹뫜뿬ꎬ떫쫇평폚웤놾짭웰늽췭ꎬ쪵볊돐놣쓜솦죔좻럇뎣폐쿞ꎬ춬쪱퓚놣쿕뺭펪ꆢ맜샭ꆢ벼쫵폫뺭퇩뗈랽쏦뻹늻뻟놸듳랶캧돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쓜솦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ폐맘뻞퓖놣쿕뗄퇐뺿뷏캪럴잳ꎬ떱잰훷튪뮹뒦폚틽뷸뫍뷩짜맺췢퇐뺿돉맻뗄뷗뛎ꎬ훷튪폐ꎺ랫(2002)ꋜ죏캪ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뢺햮횤좯뮯ퟮ캪돉릦뗄펦폃캪뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯뗄돶쿖캪놣쿕죋쳡릩쇋튻훖퓙놣쿕뗄쳦듺욷ꆣ헅쿾쇡ꆢ쇖풴ꆢ틼쇩횥ꎨ2002ꎩꋝ죏캪퓚컒맺풶웚뷰죚쫐뎡폐 ꋙ J. David Cummins, Marry A. Weiss, The Global Market for reinsurance: Consolidation, Capacity, and Efficiency, Paper, 2002, ꋚ J. David Cummins, Cat Bonds and Other Risk-Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments, Temple University, Paper, ꋛ Morton Lane, Olivier Mabul. Catastrophe Risk Pricing. Policy Research Working Paper. ꋜ 랫ꎮ뻞퓖햮좯벰웤퓚놣쿕릫쮾럧쿕맜샭훐뗄펦폃ꎮ췢맺뺭볃폫맜샭ꎮ2002ꎬ24ꎨ2ꎩꎮP33-37 ꋝ 헅쿾쇡ꎬ쇖풴ꎬ틼쇩횥ꎮ싛놾쫐뎡쫇뻞퓖럧쿕틆뗄뒴탂톡퓱ꎮ훐맺놣쿕맜샭룉늿톧풺톧놨ꎮ2002ꎬ3. P36-38 4
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 듽폚뷸튻늽뾪랢뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뿉틔춨맽뷰죚퇜짺릤뻟뫍횤좯뮯릤뻟붫뻞퓖럧쿕틆떽놾쫐뎡쫇뿉탐뗄ꆣ헅쇡ꎨ2005ꎩꋙ죏캪춨맽퇐뺿놣쿕횤좯뮯ퟷ캪튻훖놣쿕쫐뎡폫놾쫐뎡죚뫏뗄뗤탍뷰죚릤뻟퓚웤쪵볊쫐뎡닙ퟷ훐뿉쓜돶쿖뗄컊쳢ꆣ쳕헽죧ꆢ쳕쿄탂ꎨ2007ꎩꋚ퓚ꆶ뻞퓖놣쿕퇜짺욷ꆷ훐쾵춳ퟜ뷡쇋뻞퓖놣쿕퇜짺욷뗄랢햹맽돌ꎬ뷩짜쇋벸훖뷏뎣볻뗄뻞퓖놣쿕퇜짺욷ꆣ틔짏뚼쫇헫뛔뻞퓖놣쿕뺭펪릤뻟랽쏦ퟶ뗄퇐뺿ꆣ퓚뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕뚨볛뗄샭싛퇐뺿랽쏦쯹ퟶ뗄릤ퟷ듳뛠쫽캪쪵횤탔첽쯷ꎬ죧2001쓪ꎬ훜럼욽퓚ꆶ뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯퇐뺿——뷰죚ꆢ놣쿕튻쳥뮯뗄뗤랶ꆷ튻컄훐듓뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯뗄탨쟳럖컶ퟅ쫖ꎬ틔뻞퓖햮좯캪샽ꎬ뷒쪾쇋놣쿕솬뷡횤좯뗄뺫쯣뚨볛믺샭ꋛꆣ2006쓪ꎬ쳯쇡ꆢ쿲량믹폚럧쿕뚨볛뿲볜뗄뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛뗄LFC쒣탍ꆢWang솽틲쯘쒣탍뫍Christofides쒣탍뗄믹놾풭샭ꎬ늢듓쒣탍쳘뗣ꆢ쪵횤뷡맻뫍쒣탍좱쿝죽룶랽쏦뛔쯼쏇뷸탐쇋뇈뷏럖컶ꎬ늢틔1999쓪16횻뻞퓖햮좯뗄쫐뎡볓좨욽뻹볛룱캪뇪ힼꎬ뗃돶퓚뺫좷돌뛈랽쏦ꎬWang솽틲쯘쒣탍튪폅폚Christofides쒣탍ꎬChristofides쒣탍튪폅폚LFC쒣탍ꋜꆣ ퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ맺쓚뛔뻞퓖놣쿕뗄퇐뺿쮮욽늻룟ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽컄헂뷶뻖쿞폚뷩짜맺췢뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷ꎬ뛸맘폚짮닣듎뗄샭싛폫랽램퇐뺿뫜짙ꎬ폈웤쫇퓚뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛랽쏦ꎬ쯹ퟶ뗄릤ퟷ듳뛠쫽캪쪵횤탔첽쯷ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄뛔뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛뗄퇐뺿뻟폐튻뚨뗄횸떼틢틥ꆣ ㄮ?퇐뺿쮼슷폫뒴탂횮뒦?ㄮ㌮ㄠ퇐뺿쮼슷?놾컄쫗쿈럖컶맺쓚췢뻞퓖놣쿕뗄랢햹쿖ힴꎬ헒돶컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹뗄욿뺱ꎬ좻뫳듓샭싛닣쏦쿪뺡웊컶쇋럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕뗄솽훖랽쪽ꆪꆪ퓙놣쿕뫍뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯ꎬ뗃돶뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯쫇떱잰럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕ꆢ쪵쿖뻞퓖놣쿕뻈훺늹뎥뗄튻훖뿉닙ퟷ탔뷏잿뗄탂쮼슷ꆣ퓚퇐뺿샻폃놾쫐뎡살럖즢럧쿕쪱ꎬ뛔뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷훐펦폃ퟮ캪맣랺뗄뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐쇋짮죫뗄첽쳖ꎬ늢뛔웤뚨볛ퟶ쇋뒴탂탍퇐뺿ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ짮죫첽뺿뻞퓖놣쿕퓚컒맺췆탐뗄뿉탐탔늢뛔컒맺놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뻞퓖놣쿕쯹쏦쇙뗄럧쿕죧뫎뷸탐틆ꆢ럖즢쳡돶쇋붨짨탔뗄닎뾼틢볻ꆣ? ꋙ 헅쇡ꎮ놣쿕횤좯뮯ꎺ놣쿕쫐뎡폫놾쫐뎡뗄죚뫏ꎮ횤좯쫐뎡ꎮꎮP114-115 ꋚ 쳕헽죧ꎬ쳕쿄탂ꎮ뻞퓖놣쿕퇜짺욷ꎮퟔ좻퓖몦톧놨ꎮꎮP132-138 ꋛ 훜럼욽ꎮ뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯퇐뺿ꆪꆪ뷰죚ꆢ놣쿕튻쳥뮯뗄뗤랶ꎮ닆뺭퇐뺿ꎮ(2)ꎮP36-41 ꋜ 쳯쇡ꎬ쿲량ꎮ믹폚럧쿕뚨볛뿲볜뗄뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛쒣탍뇈뷏퇐뺿ꎮ커몺듳톧톧놨ꎨ헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦ꎩꎮꎮP168-174 5
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ㄮ㌮㈠뒴탂횮뒦?놾컄뗄뒴탂횮뒦훷튪퓚폚틔쿂벸뗣ꎺ???놾컄듓짌튵놣쿕뗄뷇뛈돶랢ꎬ퇐뺿붨솢튻룶쫊뫏컒맺뗄뷡뫏퓙놣쿕ꆢ뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯ꆢ헾뢮룷ퟔ폅쫆뗄뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢쒣쪽ꆣ???퓚퇐뺿뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷훐펦폃ퟮ캪맣랺뗄뻞퓖햮좯쪱ꎬ룹뻝춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듳킡ꎬ짨볆쇋컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뫍쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꆣ?挮뷡뫏놣쿕톧훐뗄뺫쯣뚨볛램?웚췻쯷엢뛮?살캪짨볆뗄뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐뚨볛ꆣ?ㄮ?싛컄뿲볜?놾컄뗄헂뷚낲업죧쿂ꎺ?뗚튻헂ꎺ탷싛?룃늿럖뷩짜쇋컄헂킴ퟷ뗄뚯틲ꆢ맺쓚췢컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꎬ틔벰놾싛컄뗄퇐뺿쮼슷폫뒴탂횮뒦뗈ꆣ?뗚뛾헂ꎺ뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹쿖ힴ?쫗쿈뷩짜쇋뻞퓖럧쿕뗄룅뿶ꎬ놣쿕퓚맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕훐뗄ퟷ폃틔벰놣쿕튵뗄삧뺳ꎬ좻뫳닻쫶쇋맺쓚췢뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹쿖ힴꎬ횸돶컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕튵실뫳뗄튻룶뫜훘튪뗄풭틲쫇놣쿕릫쮾돐놣쓜솦늻ퟣꎬ컞램냑뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢돶좥ꆣ?뗚죽헂ꎺ뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆럖컶?듓샭싛짏웊컶쇋솽훖뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꎬ벴퓙놣쿕뫍뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯ꆣ 놾늿럖쫗쿈횸돶퓙놣쿕퓚틆뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕뗄ퟷ폃뫍늻ퟣꎬ좻뫳틽돶쇭튻훖럧쿕럖즢랽쪽ꆪꆪ뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯ꆣ퓚퇐뺿뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯훐ꎬ훷튪럖컶쇋컥훖뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷ꆣ 뗚쯄헂ꎺ뻞퓖햮좯벰웤뚨볛퇐뺿?룃늿럖뛔뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷훐랢햹ퟮ돉쫬ꆢ펦폃ퟮ맣랺뗄뻞퓖햮좯ퟶ쇋짮죫뗄퇐뺿ꎬ캪놾싛컄뗄뫋탄횮튻ꆣ쫗쿈뷩짜쇋뻞퓖햮좯뗄뿲볜ꎬ좻뫳룹뻝뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듳킡짨볆쇋컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뫍쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ늢뒴퓬탔뗘퓋폃놣쿕뺫쯣뚨볛램뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐뚨볛ꆣ?뗚컥헂ꎺ컒맺뾪햹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆뗄쮼슷?뷡뫏컒맺뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쳘뗣ꎬ뛔컒맺쪵탐뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗄뿉탐탔뷸탐쇋튻뚨럖컶ꎬퟮ뫳첽쳖죧뫎붨솢컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꆣ? 6
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뗚쇹헂ꎺ뷡싛폫햹췻?놾헂붫튪뛔좫컄뗄쓚죝뷸탐ퟜ뷡맩벯ꎬ늢뷡뫏놾컄퇐뺿뗄훘뗣ꎬ뛔웤쯻뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷뗄뚨볛랽램ퟶ튻룶햹췻ꆣ??놾컄퇐뺿뿲볜죧춼???쯹쪾ꎺ?뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뷧뚨뫍쳘헷 컒맺쒿잰뗄뻞퓖놣쿕룅뿶 맺췢뗄뻞퓖놣쿕룅뿶 헒돶컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕튵랢햹실뫳뗄훘튪풭틲쫇뻞퓖럧쿕뗃늻떽뫜뫃뗄럖즢 듓샭싛짏럖컶쇋솽훖럖즢뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕뗄믺훆 퓙놣쿕 뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯 뛔뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛?뷸탐쇋뒴탂탔퇐뺿?컒맺랢햹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆뗄쮼뾼???춼??ㄠ?놾컄퇐뺿뿲볜?킡뷡?놾헂훷튪뛔퇐뺿뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆뗄틢틥ꆢ쒿잰맺쓚췢뻍룃컊쳢퇐뺿뗄쿖ힴ뷸탐쇋맩쓉ퟜ뷡ꆣ퓚맺쓚췢퇐뺿쿖ힴ뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ좷뚨쇋놾컄튪퇐뺿뗄쓚죝폫뫋탄ꆣ? 7
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ??뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹쿖ힴ?뻞퓖럧쿕쫇튻훖벫캪쳘쫢뗄럧쿕ꎬ쯼췹췹틢캶ퟅ퇏훘뗄뺭볃쯰쪧뫍죋풱짋췶ꆣ놾헂붫퓚뷩짜뻞퓖럧쿕뗄몬틥ꆢ놣쿕퓚맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕훐뗄ퟷ폃벰놣쿕튵뗄삧뺳뗈뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ럖컶맺쓚췢뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹쿖ힴꎬퟮ뫳뛔컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕튵뗄실뫳ힴ뿶뷸탐웊컶ꆣ?㈮ㄠ뻞퓖럧쿕룅쫶?㈮ㄮㄠ뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뷧뚨?ꆰ뻞퓖ꆱ튻듊쒿잰뮹쎻폐퇏룱뗄ꆢ춨폃뗄뚨틥ꎬ튻냣죋쏇듳뛠듓랢짺욵싊뫍쯰쪧돌뛈뗈랽쏦살볓틔뫢솿ꎬ쫇횸쓇킩랢짺욵싊뗍ꆢ쯰쪧듳뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦믲죋캪퓖믶ꆣ떫쫇욵싊뗍뫍쯰쪧듳뗄뻟쳥쫽횵쫇뛠짙ꎬ쎻폐춳튻뗄뫢솿뇪ힼꆣ쪵컱훐ꎬ춨뎣뗄ퟶ램쫇룷룶맺볒룹뻝놾맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ퓚늻춬샺쪷쪱웚뛔웤뷸탐뚨틥뫍뮮럖ꎬ틲듋ꎬ뻞퓖쫇튻룶쯦ퟅ짧믡랢햹뇤뮯뛸뇤뮯뗄듊믣ꆣ샽죧ꎬ쏀맺놣쿕럾컱뻖ꎨInsurance Service Office, PCSꎩ쿂짨뗄닆닺샭엢늿퓚늻춬쪱웚뛔뻞퓖폐늻춬뗄뚨틥ꆣ퓚1983쓪틔잰ꎬ뻞퓖캪뎬맽100췲쏀풪뗄놻놣쿕쯰쪧ꎻ1983쓪뫳ꎬ퓶볓캪500췲쏀풪ꎻ1997쓪1퓂1죕뫳ꎬPCS뚨틥뻞퓖캪틽웰훁짙2500췲쏀풪놻놣쿕닆닺쯰쪧늢펰쿬떽1000룶틔짏뗄놻놣쿕죋뗄퓖몦ꋙꆣ 죰쪿퓙놣쿕릫쮾붫뻞퓖럧쿕럖캪ퟔ좻퓖몦뫍죋캪퓖믶ꆣퟔ좻퓖몦훷튪쫇죧뗘헰ꆢ믰즽놬랢ꆢ뫩쮮ꆢ럧ꆢ럧놩뗈ퟔ좻랢짺뗄늢틽웰뻞듳뺭볃쯰쪧뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦ꎻ죋캪퓖믶쫇횸폫죋샠믮뚯믲벼쫵쳡룟폐맘뗄뻞듳쯰쪧쫂볾ꆣ뇈죧뿖닀훷틥믮뚯ꆢ뫋킹슩ꆢ놬햨ꆢ몽쳬량믺쪧쫂뗈ꆣ 뛔폚럧쿕ꎬ뷏춨폃뗄뷢쫍쫇ꎺ쒳훖쯦믺쫂볾랢짺뫳룸죋쏇뗄샻틦퓬돉쯰쪧뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔헢퇹샭뷢뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ쯼쫇횸퓚캴살뿉쓜뛔죋샠짧믡닆뢻뫍짺쏼낲좫퓬돉쯰쪧럇뎣뻞듳뗄럧쿕ꎬ떼훂죧듋럇뎣뻞듳쯰쪧뗄쫂볾쿠펦뗘놻돆캪뻞퓖쫂볾ꆣ ㈮ㄮ㈠뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쳘헷?뻞퓖럧쿕ퟷ캪럧쿕뗄튻훖ꎬ폫튻냣뗄럧쿕폐릲춬횮뒦ꎬ벴ꎺ뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뿍맛탔뫍늻좷뚨탔ꆣ뿍맛탔쫇횸뻞퓖럧쿕쫇튻훖늻틔죋쏇뗄훷맛틢횾캪틆뗄뿍맛듦퓚ꎬ쯤좻죋쏇캪뇜쏢뻞퓖뗄랢짺닉좡쇋룷훖럀랶듫쪩ꎬ튲좡뗃쇋믽벫뗄돉킧ꎬ떫튪듓룹놾짏쿻돽뻞퓖럧쿕퓲쫇늻뿉쓜뗄ꎻ늻좷뚨탔쫇쮵뻞퓖퓚쪲쎴쪱뫲랢짺ꎬ퓚쓄룶뗘랽랢짺ꎬ뻞퓖랢짺뫳붫퓬돉쓄킩뇪뗄뗄 ꋙ 샮폂좨ꎮ뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕횤좯뮯퇐뺿ꎮ훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎮ2005ꎬ1ꎮp23 8
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 쯰쪧ꎬ퓬돉뗄쯰쪧폐뛠듳ꎬ뚼쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꎬ늻쓜풤횪뗄ꆣ?쇭췢ꎬ뻞퓖럧쿕뮹뻟폐웤ퟔ짭뛀폐뗄튻킩쳘헷ꎺ?愮?뻞퓖랢짺뗄룅싊뗍ꎬ풤닢뇈뷏삧쓑ꆣ?폫튻냣뗄럇뻞퓖쫂볾쿠뇈ꎬ뻞퓖랢짺룅싊럇뎣킡ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뻞퓖늻맜쫇웰틲폚ퟔ좻풭틲뮹쫇죋캪풭틲ꎬ뛔웤풤닢듳늿럖뚼벫캪삧쓑ꎬ틲캪뻞퓖퓚뛌쪱볤쓚벫짙퓚춬튻뗘뗣훘뢴랢짺ꎬ벴쪹랢짺쇋ꎬ웤뢴랢훜웚튲쿠떱뎤ꎬ헢훖벫뗍뗄풭뗘훘퇝탔쪹죋쏇뛔뻞퓖뗄죏쪶ꆢ풤놨ꆢ풤럀뺭퇩쓑틔믽샛ꆣ폈웤쫇ퟔ좻쿖쿳ꎬ쓃뗘헰살쮵ꎬ웤퓐폽맽돌뎤ꎬ돉틲뢴퓓ꎬ룷맺뗄뿆톧볒쯤좻뷸탐쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿뫍첽쯷ꎬ떫훁뷱죔좻뫜쓑헒떽ힼ좷풤놨뗘헰뗄랽램ꆣ?戮?뻞퓖쫂볾떼훂뗄뺭볃쯰쪧듳ꎬ짋췶죋쫽뛠ꎬ펰쿬랶캧맣ꆣ?춳볆쇏뇭쏷ꎬ뻞퓖쫂볾떼훂뗄쯰쪧쫇뻞듳뗄ꆣ쓃㈰〸쓪?퓂ㄲ죕랢짺퓚컒맺쯄뒨뗘쟸뗄뒨뗘헰살쮵ꎬ웤떼훂뗄뺭볃쯰쪧폐8451틚풪ꎬ풼햼떱쓪컒맺䝄?뗄㈮㜥ꎬ쯀췶죋쫽듯㠷〰?뛠죋ꋙꆣ뮹폐㈰쓪?퓂㈷죕랢짺퓚훇샻뗄뗘헰ꎬ뻝쏀맺럧쿕쒣탍릫쮾䕑䕃䅔풤닢ꎬ듋듎뗘헰붫룸훇샻듸살ㄵ?틚?㌰?틚쏀풪뗄뺭볃쯰쪧ꎬ쿠떱폚훇샻䝄?뗄??ㄵ?ꋚꆣ뻞퓖쫂볾돽쇋퓬돉횱뷓뗄뺭볃쯰쪧췢ꎬ뮹폐볤뷓캣몦ꎬ죧뻝붯삼믛ꋛ뗈죋쯹ퟷ뗄뗷닩횪ꎬ뻞퓖럧쿕늻뷶듲싒쇋퓖쟸죋쏇헽뎣뗄짺믮ꎬ쪹웤쎻폐쇋컈뚨뗄쫕죫살풴ꎬ짺믮뢺떣볓훘ꎬ뛸쟒튲쪹퓖쟸죋쏇쫜떽쇋뒴짋탔뗘펰쿬ꎬ쪹죋쏇퓚탄샭짏닺짺쇋폇싇룐뫍뿖뻥룐ꎬ헢훖폇싇룐뫍뿖뻥룐횱뷓룸죋쏇뗄짺믮듸살늻쫊ꎬ펰쿬죋쏇뗄릤ퟷ뫍짺믮킧싊ꎬ퇏훘뗄쪱뫲뮹뿉쓜떼훂퇏훘뗄뺭볃쯰쪧짵훁짧믡뚯싒ꆣ?挮?뻞퓖럧쿕뗄랢햹탔?뻞퓖럧쿕쫇쯦ퟅ짧믡뺭볃뗄랢햹뛸늻뛏랢햹늢퓶볓뗄ꆣ죋뿚뗄퓶뎤뫍퓚랢듯뗘쟸뗄뻛벯ꎬ죋뿚쏜벯뗘쟸닆뢻볛횵뗄퓶볓뫍벯훐ꎬ틔벰평폚웸뫲뇤얯벰뮷뺳컛좾뗈풭틲퓬돉뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦뗄욵싊뫍잿뛈뗄늻뛏퓶볓ꎬ횱뷓떼훂잱퓚뗄뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺뗄욵싊ꆢ뿉쓜퓬돉뗄뺭볃쯰쪧뗄럹뛈쏷쿔퓶볓ꆣ?죋캪퓖몦쫂맊튲쯦ퟅ룟뿆벼뗄랢햹톸쯙퓶볓ꎬ튻킩틽웰좫쫀뷧죋쏇헰뺪뫍맘힢뗄퓖몦쫂맊ꎬ죧ㄹ㠶쓪쏀맺쳴햽헟뫅몽쳬량믺쪧쫂뫍쟐뛻억놴샻뫋뗧햾쫂볾ꎻ㈰〱쓪뗄㤮ㄱ쫂볾ꎻ㈰〳쓪쏀맺룧싗뇈퇇뫅몽쳬량믺퓚략몽맽돌훐놬햨ힹ믙뗈ꎬ헢킩쫂볾쯹퓬돉뗄쯰쪧뫍펰쿬쫇럇뎣뻞듳뗄ꎬ튲쫇잰쯹캴폐뗄ꆣ?평뢽슼?뿉횪듓ㄹ㜰떽㈰??쓪랢짺뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦뫍죋캪퓖쓑퓚늻뛏퓶볓ꎬ떱좻퓬돉뗄뺭 ꋙ 뒨뗘헰퓬돉횱뷓뺭볃쯰쪧8451틚풪ꎮ 2008,9 ꋚ 훇샻뗘헰풤볆훁짙쯰쪧10%GDPꎮ ꋛ 붯삼믛ꎬ샮폗욽ꎬ췲뒺쎷뗈ꎮ뒨뗘헰폶쓑톧짺뢸쒸짺믮쿖ힴ뗄뫡뛏쏦뗷닩ꎮ훐맺톭횤튽톧퓓횾ꎮ 2009,9ꎮP171-177? 9
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 볃쯰쪧튲붫늻뛏볓듳ꆣ??㈮ㄮ㌠놣쿕퓚맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕훐뗄ퟷ폃?짌튵놣쿕퓚럧쿕맜샭ꆢ럾컱짧믡ꆢ듙뷸뿆톧랢햹뫍쪵쿖짧믡뫍킳뗈랽쏦뻟폐늻뿉쳦듺뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꎬ믽벫닎폫뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭쫇놣쿕튵펦뺡뗄짧믡퓰죎ꆣퟝ맛쫀뷧짏웤쯻맺볒뗄뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭뺭퇩ꎬ놣쿕튵뗄닎폫쫇뇘늻뿉짙뗄ꎬ룷맺헾뢮틔벰톧쫵뷧틑뺭좡뗃튻룶릲쪶ꎬ펦뛔뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뿆톧랽램펦듓퓖뫳뾹퓖뻈퓖캪훷뇤캪틔뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭캪훷ꎬ퓚헢튻샭쓮쿂ꎬ놣쿕뗄ퟷ폃붫룼볓쏷쿔뗘쳥쿖돶살ꆣ?愮?놣쿕뻟폐웤쯻뷰죚릤뻟늻뿉쳦듺뗄릦쓜ꎬ벴놣쿕뗄놣헏릦쓜틔벰뺭볃늹뎥릦쓜ꆣ?뻞퓖퓖몦맽뫳ꎬ뺭볃늹뎥쫇ퟮ횱뷓뗄뻈퓖듫쪩ꎬ틲듋ꎬ놣쿕퓚뻞퓖뗄짭펰룱췢춻돶ꆣ훮죧펢맺뗄뻞퓖놣쿕ꎬ췁뛺웤맺볒뗘헰뫏ퟷ놣쿕믹뷰뗈ꎬ놣쿕튵퓚퓖뫳늹뎥훐쯹햼뗄뇈훘뫜룟ꆣ놣쿕튵뷏랢듯뗄쫐뎡쪵볹뇭쏷ꎬ놣쿕엢뎥춨뎣쓜햼떽뻞퓖쯰쪧뗄㌰?ퟳ폒ꎬ폐뗄짵훁룟듯㔰?틔짏ꎬ돉캪퓖몦뻈훺뫍퓖몦믖뢴훘붨뗄훷튪뷰살풴ꆣ퓚컒맺ꎬ놣쿕엢뎥햼퓖몦횱뷓뺭볃쯰쪧뗄뇈샽벫킡ꎬ헾뢮뗄닆헾뻈훺뫍쏱볤뻈볃죔쫇퓖뫳훘붨뷰뗄훷튪살풴ꎬ좻뛸닆헾뫍쏱볤뗄뻈볃쿠뛔폚쪵볊뗄뻞퓖쯰쪧튲쫇럇뎣폐쿞뗄ꆣ듓쪵볹살뾴ꎬퟷ캪쫐뎡뮯뗄쯰쪧늹뎥믺훆ꎬ놣쿕엢뎥뗄ퟷ폃뫍킧솦튪쏷쿔뗄룟폚닆헾뗄뻈훺뫍쏱볤뗄뻈볃ꎬ틲듋?놣쿕튵펦떱훰늽쳡짽놣쿕엢뿮퓚퓖몦뻈훺뫍퓖뫳훘붨훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ듓뛸퓚뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭훐돐떣웰뺭볃놣헏헢룶훘죎ꆣ??戮?뿉틔돤럖랢믓놣쿕탐튵뗄럀퓖럀쯰뗄튵폅쫆ꎬ쳡짽좫짧믡뗄럀퓖럀쯰쮮욽ꆣ?퓚뻞퓖럧쿕쏦잰ꎬ놣쿕튵ퟷ캪쏅맜샭럧쿕뗄탐튵ꎬ뿉틔돤럖쫕벯맺볊맺쓚뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뺭퇩쫽뻝ꎬ뷸탐뻞퓖럧쿕움맀ꎬ듓뛸붨솢웰뻞퓖럧쿕쫽뻝뿢뫍뻞퓖럧쿕쒣탍ꎬ춬쪱퓋폃룷훖복퓖쫖뛎ꎬ볓잿럀퓖럀쯰뗄릤ퟷꆣ죧퓖잰뛔뿍뮧뷸탐퓖몦횪쪶뗄웕벰ꆢ뛔훘듳낲좫틾뮼뷸탐럀랶ꆢ횧돖뿍뮧뛔놣쿕뇪뗄뷸탐뇘튪뗄럀뮤듫쪩뗈뗈ꆣ?쯦ퟅ좫쟲뇤얯ꎬퟔ좻퓖몦럧쿕퓶듳ꎬ뻞퓖뛔놣쿕튵퓬돉쇋벫듳뗄펰쿬ꎬ훐맺놣쿕튵튲펦룃룟뛈맘힢쫀뷧랶캧쓚뗄좫쟲뇤얯쟷쫆ꆣ죧컒맺㈰〸쓪쓏랽랢짺뗄폪톩뇹뚳퓖몦ꎬ벸쪮쓪늻폶뗄듳톩뫍뚳폪쪹뗧솦쾵춳쫜쯰ꎬ튲펰쿬쇋붻춨뗈늿쏅ꎬ떫쪵볊짏ꎬ뷼킩쓪얷훞뗘쟸틑뺭돶쿖뚬벾잿붵톩쳬웸퓶볓뗄쫆춷ꎬ뛸쟒튻킩뗘쟸튲돶쿖뗧췸쫜쯰펰쿬헽뎣릩뗧뗄쟩뿶ꆣퟷ캪럧쿕맜샭헟뗄놣쿕튵ꎬ죧맻퓧퓧힢틢떽헢튻뗣ꎬ떱쪱뗄쯰쪧펦믡듳듳뗘복짙ꆣ틲듋놣쿕튵펦룃쳡룟럀퓖럀쯰릤ퟷ뗄훘쫓돌뛈ꎬ랢믓놣쿕탐튵뗄럀퓖럀쯰뗄튵폅쫆ꎬ쳡짽좫짧믡뗄럀퓖럀쯰쮮욽ꆣ? 10
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 挮?뻞퓖놣쿕폐훺폚캬뮤맺볒닆헾컈뚨ꆣ?뻞퓖뻟폐춻랢탔뫍늻좷뚨탔ꎬ뻞뛮뗄쯰쪧돽쇋쫜퓖떥캻뫍룶죋돐떣췢ꎬ췹췹탨튪닆헾늦뻞뛮뿮쿮뷸탐뻈훺ꎬ폈웤쫇컒맺ꎬ헢룸맺볒닆헾퓬돉쇋뻞듳뗄톹솦ꎬ뇘좻믡펰쿬떽떱쓪뫍캴살벸쓪닆헾쫕횧욽뫢ꎬ펰쿬떽닆헾풤쯣뗄솬탸탔뫍볆뮮탔ꆣ퓋폃놣쿕믺훆늻뷶쓜릻폐킧뗘틆퓖몦퓬돉뗄쯰쪧ꎬ뛸쟒뿉틔복짙뛔닆헾컈뚨뗄돥믷ꆣ?㈮ㄮ??놣쿕튵뗄삧뺳?놣쿕ퟷ캪튻훖훘튪뗄럧쿕맜샭랽램ꎬ죋쏇뛔쯼뗄탨쟳쯦ퟅ뻞퓖쫂볾뗄늻뛏랢짺뛸퓶볓ꎬ좻뛸평폚뻞퓖뗄쳘탔ꎬ웤룸놣쿕릫쮾듸살뗄럧쿕놩슶튲풽살풽듳ꎬ죧뢽슼?ꆣ?쇭췢룹뻝獩杭?뗄춳볆ꋙꎬ퓚ㄹ㜰?㈰〸쓪볤ꎬ좫쫀뷧랶캧쓚훘듳퓖몦쯰쪧훐내놣쿕쯰쪧업쏻ꎬ뻓폚잰쪮캻뗄좫늿랢짺퓚ㄹ㤰쓪틔뫳ꎬ웤훐폐웟캻랢짺퓚㈰〰쓪틔뫳ꆣ놣쿕쯰쪧ퟮ듳뗄잰죽캻쫂볾럖뇰캪ꎺ㈰〵쓪?퓂㈵죕랢짺뗄ꆰ뾨쳘샯쓈ꆱ럧ꎬ퓬돉㜱?틚쏀풪뗄놣쿕쯰쪧ꎻㄹ㤲쓪?퓂㈳죕랢짺뗄ꆰ낲뗂슳ꆱ럧ꎬ퓬돉㈴㔮㔲틚쏀풪뗄놣쿕쯰쪧ꎻ㈰〱쓪뗄ꆰ㤮ㄱꆱ쫂볾ꎬ퓬돉㈲㠮㌵틚쏀풪뗄놣쿕쯰쪧ꆣ?맽좥랢짺뗄뻞퓖쫂볾뗄춳볆쫽뻝뮹뇭쏷ꎺ놣쿕쯰쪧뗄짏짽훷튪쫇평폚폫쳬웸쿠맘뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦틽웰뗄ꎺ㈰쫀볍㜰쓪듺ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾틲뫩쮮ꆢ잿럧놩뗈퓖몦쯹횧뢶뗄엢뿮쎿쓪뷶폐㈹틚쏀풪ퟳ폒ꎬ떽쇋㠰쓪듺ꎬ헢룶쫽ퟖ짏짽훁㔷틚쏀풪ꎬ㤰쓪듺룟듯ㄸ?틚쏀풪ꎬퟔ㈰〰쓪틔살ꎬ엢뿮욽뻹쫽뛮캪쎿쓪㌰?틚쏀풪ꎬ쫇㜰쓪듺엢뿮뗄놶뮹뛠ꎬ헢킩쫽ퟖ뇭쿖돶뻞퓖쫂볾퓬돉뗄놣쿕쯰쪧폐럇뎣쏷쿔퓶볓뗄쟷쫆ꋚꆣ?뻞퓖놣쿕쯰쪧뗄퓶볓쫆뇘믡펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뗄돐놣쓜솦ꎬ튻킩맦쒣킡뗄놣쿕릫쮾퓚뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺뫳ꎬ평폚뎥뢶쓜솦늻ퟣꎬퟮ훕늻뾰훘뢺ꎬ췋돶놣쿕쫐뎡ꎬ벴쪹쫇맦쒣듳뗄놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ뻞퓖쫂볾뗄랢짺튲믡뛔웤닺짺뷏듳펰쿬ꆣ?헢퇹ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾퓚릫훚뛔뻞퓖놣쿕탨쟳늻뛏퓶볓뗄믺폶쿂뫍뻞퓖럧쿕놩슶늻뛏퓶볓뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ죧뫎럖즢ꆢ틆웤럧쿕놩슶ꎬ듓뛸쳡룟웤돐놣쓜솦돉캪뇘탫뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꆣ?㈮㈠컒맺쒿잰뻞퓖놣쿕뗄룅뿶?컒맺놣쿕튵ퟔ뾪냬쳘뇰쫇룄룯뾪럅틔살ꎬ랢햹톸쯙ꎬ놣럑쫕죫듓ㄹ㠰쓪뗄㐮?틚풪퓶볓 ꋙ SigmaꎬNo 2/2009ꎬ웤쯰쪧캪내2008쓪볛룱볆쯣ꆣ ꋚ Sigma, No 2/2007ꎬ웤쯰쪧캪내2006쓪볛룱볆쯣ꆣ 11
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 떽㈰〹쓪뗄ㄱㄳ㜮?틚풪ꋙꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣퓶뎤쇋㈰〰뛠놶ꎬ춬쪱돊쿖돶죕붥튵뮯ꆢ맺볊뮯ꆢ쫐뎡뮯ꆢ맦랶뮯뗄탂쳘뗣ꎬ죋쏇쯬돆횮캪ꆰ뎯퇴탐튵ꆱꆣ떫쫇평폚웤놾짭웰늽췭ꎬ맘폚놣쿕뒴탂ꆢ뷰쪵솦ꆢ놣쿕쏜뛈뫍짮뛈랽쏦폫쫀뷧랢듯맺볒쿠뇈죔좻듦퓚튻뚨닮뻠ꎬ뛔폚뻞퓖놣쿕헢튻쿕훖뛸퇔ꎬ룼쫇죧듋ꆣ컒맺쒿잰짐캴붨솢웰뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈ꎬ짐컞퇏뷷뗄램싉살맦랶ꎬ쫐뎡짏쳡릩뗄뻞퓖놣쿕닺욷듳늿럖뒦폚쫔쮮뷗뛎ꎬ늢컞헾뢮뗄닎폫뷩죫ꆣ쿂쏦럖뇰듓맘폚뻞퓖놣쿕뗄램싉뫍쒿잰컒맺놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뻞퓖놣쿕뗄쟩뿶살럖컶ꆣ?㈮㈮??맘폚뻞퓖놣쿕뗄램싉램맦?탭뛠맺볒춨맽솢램붫뻞퓖놣쿕틔램싉탎쪽쏷좷ꎬ컒맺쯤좻폚ㄹ㤵쓪냤늼쇋ꆶ놣쿕램ꆷꎬ떫헢늿램싉뛔뻞퓖놣쿕늢캴폐뻟쳥뗄맦뚨ꎬ짌튵놣쿕릫쮾ꎨ훷튪쫇횸닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ꎩ벸뫵쎻폐쏅헫뛔뻞퓖럧쿕짨솢뗄쿕훖ꆣ?쿂쏦틔뗘헰놣쿕솢램캪샽첸컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕솢램쿖ힴꎺ?뗘헰놣쿕퓚컒맺돊쿖볤뛏탔뺭펪뗄쳘뗣ꆣ?퓧퓚ㄹ㔱쓪?맺볒훆뚨쇋ꆶ맘폚쪵탐맺볒믺맘ꆢ맺펪웳튵ꆢ뫏ퟷ짧닆닺잿훆놣쿕벰싃뿍잿훆놣쿕뗄뻶뚨ꆷ?훐맺죋쏱놣쿕릫쮾룹뻝듋맦뚨붫뗘헰놣쿕ퟷ캪웕춨믰쿕뗄삩햹퓰죎ퟔ뚯돐놣ꎬ뫳살퓚튻킩쪡럝뚼쿠볌뾪냬뗄얩튵놣쿕튲붫뗘헰럧쿕냼삨퓚쓚ꆣㄹ㔸쓪훁ㄹ㜸쓪볤컒맺춣냬쇋맺쓚놣쿕튵컱?뗘헰놣쿕틲듋튲뒦폚춣훍ힴ첬ꆣ?ㄹ㜹쓪?컒맺맺쓚놣쿕튵컱믖뢴틔살?퓚헾뢮뗄듳솦횧돖뫍놣쿕튵ퟔ짭뗄얬솦쿂?뗘헰놣쿕뗃떽쇋뷏뿬뗄랢햹ꆣㄹ㠰쓪훁ㄹ㤵쓪볤ꎬ헫뛔웳쫂튵떥캻뗄웳튵닆닺놣쿕ꆢ믺뚯뎵솾놣쿕ꆢ뒬늰놣쿕뫍믵컯퓋쫤놣쿕뗄퓰죎랶캧뻹냼몬쇋뗘헰ꆢ뫩쮮뗈뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ뻓쏱볒춥닆닺놣쿕뗄놣헏랶캧훐튲냼삨쇋룷샠뻞퓖럧쿕ꆣㄹ㤶쓪ꎬ캪쇋뿘훆뫍럀랶놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪럧쿕ꎬ훐맺죋쏱틸탐냤늼쇋ꆶ맘폚펡랢?닆닺놣쿕믹놾쿕?뫍?닆닺놣쿕ퟛ뫏쿕ꆷ쳵뿮ꆢ럑싊벰쳵뿮뷢쫍뗄춨횪?ꋚ붫뗘헰럧쿕쇐죫뻸듳뛠쫽닆닺놣쿕뗄돽췢퓰죎ꆣ듋뫳ꎬ쯤좻폖돶첨쇋튻킩맘폚럅뿭뗘헰놣쿕뗄헾닟ꎬ떫훷튪벯훐퓚맘쾵맺볆쏱짺ꆢ뻟폐훘듳짧믡펰쿬뗄듳탍쿮쒿ꆣ?뷼쓪살룷훖ퟔ좻퓖몦욵랢ꎬ맺볒뛔놣쿕럖즢뗘헰뻞퓖럧쿕뗄ퟷ폃풽살풽훘쫓ꆣ㈰〶쓪맺컱풺냤랢뗄ꆶ맘폚놣쿕튵룄룯랢햹뗄죴룉틢볻ꆷꋛ쏷좷횸돶ꎬ튪붨솢웰쫐뎡뮯뗄퓖몦ꆢ쫂맊늹뎥믺훆ꎬ붨솢맺볒닆헾횧돖뗄뻞퓖놣쿕쳥쾵ꎬ듓뛸퓶잿좫짧믡뗖폹럧쿕뗄쓜솦ꆣ㈰〷쓪탂냤 ꋙ 2009쓪1-12퓂좫맺룷뗘놣쿕릫쮾풭놣쿕놣럑쫕죫쟩뿶뇭ꎮ훐맺놣쿕볠뚽맜샭캯풱믡췸햾ꎮ2010ꎬ1ꎬ25 ꋚ 288훐맺죋쏱틸탐맘폚펡랢ꆶ닆닺놣쿕믹놾쿕ꆷ뫍ꆶ닆닺놣쿕ퟛ뫏쿕ꆷꎮ ꎮ2008ꎬ8ꎬ17 ꋛ 맺컱풺맘폚놣쿕튵룄룯랢햹뗄죴룉틢볻ꎮ맺랢[2006]23뫅ꎮ 12
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 늼뗄ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺춻랢쫂볾펦뛔램ꆷꋙ훐맦뚨ꎬ맺볒랢햹놣쿕쫂튵ꎬ붨솢맺볒닆헾횧돖뗄뻞퓖놣쿕쳥쾵ꆣ쯤좻ꎬ뻞퓖놣쿕틑뺭뗃떽맺볒뫍짧믡룷뷧뗄훘쫓ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ믓ퟷ튪헦헽랢폃ꎬ뇘탫폐튻늿맘폚뻞퓖놣쿕뗄램싉살횧독ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ웚듽뻞퓖놣쿕램뗄퓧죕떮짺ꆣ?㈮㈮??쒿잰쫐뎡짏뻞퓖놣쿕닺욷릩룸쟩뿶?럖뇰쓃컒맺뗄쫙쿕뫍닆쿕살쮵쏷뻞퓖놣쿕닺욷릩룸쿖ힴꎺ?쫗쿈ꎬ뛔폚컒맺닆쿕ꎬ㈰〸쓪?퓂럝틔잰ꎬ컒맺닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄훷튪쿕훖죧볒춥닆닺놣쿕뫍믺뚯뎵솾놣쿕뗈쿕훖돐놣뗄믹놾퓰죎랶캧듳늿럖뚼늻냼삨뗘헰뗈뻞퓖쫂볾퓬돉뗄쯰쪧ꎬ뛸쟒튲늻뿉틔ퟷ캪뢽볓쿕뢽볓ꆣ뛔폚웳튵닆닺놣쿕뫍릤돌쿕ꎬ뗘헰뗈뻞퓖럧쿕튲쫴폚돽췢퓰죎ꎬ떫쫇뿉틔ퟷ캪뢽볓쿕뢽볓폚훷쿕짏ꆣ닆닺놣쿕퓰죎캨튻튻룶퓚훷쿕훐돐놣뗄쿕훖쫇죋짭틢췢짋몦놣쿕ꆣ?㈰〸쓪?퓂ꎬ쫗뿮돐놣뗘헰뻞퓖럧쿕뗄닆닺놣쿕닺욷컊쫀쇋ꆪꆪ뮪낲놣쿕릫쮾췆돶쇋돐놣뗘헰럧쿕퓰죎뗄ꆰ뢣싺쳃ꆱ볒춥닆닺놣쿕ꎬ늢쟒싊쿈퓚맣훝ꆢ쳬뷲솽뗘쫔쿺ꆣ퓚ꆰ㔮ㄲꆱ뗘헰횮뫳ꎬ뮽탑쇋죋쏇뛔뻞퓖놣쿕뗄탨쟳ꎬ폈웤쫇쯄뒨뗘쟸뛔뗘헰쿕뗄탨쟳춻퓶ꎬ쯹틔뮪낲놣쿕릫쮾폚㈰〸쓪?퓂돵퓚돉뚼춶럅룃쿕훖ꆣ좻뛸룃쿕훖쳘뇰뛔ꆰ뗘헰퓰죎ꆱ뗄쟸폲뷸탐쇋쿞훆ꎬ뇈죧늻퓚죧뫓놱ꆢ쓾쿄ꆢ룊쯠ꆢ쓚쏉맅ꆢ즽컷ꆢ짂컷ꆢ몣쓏ꆢ탂붮ꆢ컷님ꆢ퓆쓏뗈쫴폚뗘헰ꆢ몣킥룟랢쟸뗄뗘쟸쿺쫛ꎬ뛸쟒짏몣평폚뿉쓜쫜떽뚫몣뗘헰듸뗄늨벰튲늻퓚돐놣쟸폲쓚ꆣ?쇭췢ꎬ뻝튻캻놣쿕튵헟쮵ꎬ튻킩놣쿕뺭볍릫쮾쿖퓚ퟶ닆닺놣쿕랽낸쪱ꎬ튻냣뚼믡삩햹뗘헰퓰죎ꎬ떫쫇웤첬뛈럇뎣뷷짷뗄ꎬ튪쳘뇰짨뚨뗘헰뗄쏢엢싊ꎬ듳룅쫇㈰?ퟳ폒ꆣ?평듋뿉볻ꎬ쯤좻쒿잰틑폐닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뛔뗘헰뗈뻞퓖럧쿕뾪쪼뷸탐돐놣ꎬ떫쫇웤돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕뗄첬뛈쫇짷횮폖짷ꎬ뛔돐놣뷰뛮믲돐놣뗘쟸뚼폐튻뚨뗄쿞훆ꆣ?웤듎ꎬ뛔폚컒맺쫙쿕ꎬ뫍닆닺쿕쿠뇈ꎬ뻞퓖럧쿕죧뗘헰듳늿럖쫴폚웤놣쿕퓰죎ꎬ틲캪ꎬ쫙쿕샯횻뾼싇짋닐ꆢ쯀췶뗈쟩뿶뗄쯷엢ꎬ뛔폚퓬돉짋닐ꆢ쯀췶뗄풭틲퓲쿞훆뗄뇈뷏짙ꆣ쯤좻듳늿럖놣쿕릫쮾뛔평폚뻞퓖럧쿕틽웰뗄놣쿕맊쫂폨폚엢뎥ꎬ떫쫇놣헏돌뛈뫍웕춨럧쿕튻퇹ꆣ㈰〸쓪퓂ꎬ벴㔮ㄲ뗘헰뫳ꎬ놣쿕튵뗄쇺춷샏듳ꆪꆪ훐맺죋쫙ퟷ쇋뇭싊탐캪ꎬ췆돶쇋ꆰ맺쫙낲쿭튻짺ꆱ솽좫놣쿕ꎬ헢튻쿕훖뗄뛀쳘횮뒦퓚폚쯼냼몬쇋쇹훖뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ죧ꎺ뗘헰ꆢ뫩쮮ꆢ몣킥ꆢ첨럧ꆢ쓠쪯쇷뫍뮬웂뗈ꎬ뛸쟒뻞퓖틢췢짭맊놣헏룟듯놣뛮뗄?놶ꎬ쯼쫇맺쓚쫗뿮몭룇 ꋙ 훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺춻랢쫂볾펦뛔램ꎨ2007쓪8퓂30죕뗚쪮뷬좫맺죋쏱듺뇭듳믡뎣컱캯풱믡뗚뛾쪮뻅듎믡틩춨맽ꎩꎮ2007,8,30ꎮ 13
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뻞퓖럧쿕ꆢ틢췢럧쿕뫍벲늡럧쿕뗄뎤웚탔쿕훖ꆣ?뷴뷓ퟅꎬ㈰〸쓪ㄱ퓂ꎬ뫣낲뇪ힼ죋쫙놣쿕폐릫쮾퓚웤틸탐놣쿕쟾뗀췆돶튻뿮ꆰ뢣믝쮫펮ꆱ솽좫놣쿕ꎨ럖뫬탍ꎩ닺욷ꎬ튲붫냼몬뗘헰ꆢ뫩쮮ꆢ몣킥ꆢ첨럧ꆢ쓠쪯쇷뫍뮬웂퓚쓚뗄뻞퓖럧쿕쇐죫놣헏랶캧ꆣ퓚㔠쓪놣쿕웚볤쓚ꎬ뿍뮧뿉쿭쫜?놶폚놣쿕뷰뛮뗄훘듳ퟔ좻퓖몦쫂볾짭맊놣헏뫍훘듳ퟔ좻퓖몦쫂볾좫닐놣헏ꆣ?ퟜ쳥살뾴ꎬ쯤좻쒿잰놣쿕릫쮾틑뺭뾪쪼뎢쫔돐놣뗘헰뗈뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ떫쫇평폚뻞퓖놣쿕쿠맘램싉늻붡좫ꆢ닺욷뾪랢벼쫵늻돉쫬ꆢ뎥뢶쓜솦늻ퟣ뗈풭틲ꎬ쫐뎡짏쳡릩뗄뻞퓖놣쿕닺욷쇈쇈컞벸ꎬ듳늿럖닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뮹쫇늻룒튲컞솦돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ뮹늻ퟣ틔랢믓뻞퓖놣쿕뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ?㈮㌠맺췢뗄뻞퓖놣쿕룅뿶ꆪꆪ틔쏀맺ꆢ죕놾캪샽?놾늿럖톡좡쇋쏀맺뗄맺볒뫩쮮놣쿕ꆢ솪냮얩ퟷ컯놣쿕뫍죕놾뗄뗘헰놣쿕ꆢ얩튵릲볃놣쿕캪뛔쿳뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ쯤좻룷룶맺볒뚼폐룷ퟔ뗄맺쟩ꎬ떫쫇퇐뺿맺췢뗄뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹쒣쪽뛔폚컒맺폐훘튪뗄뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ?㈮㌮ㄠ쏀맺뻞퓖놣쿕룅뿶?愮?쏀맺뗄맺볒뫩쮮놣쿕훆뛈쒣쪽?뛾쪮쫀볍뛾쪮쓪듺뫳웚ꎬ쏀맺랢짺쇋뛠웰뫩쮮랺샄퓖몦ꎬ릫훚뛔뫩쮮퓖몦놣헏뗄탨쟳죕틦퓶뎤ꎬ떫쫇평폚쳘듳뫩쮮퓖몦룸튻킩놣쿕릫쮾뗄쯰쪧럇뎣퇏훘ꎬ짵훁떼훂쇋튻킩놣쿕릫쮾뗄웆닺ꎬ쪹놣쿕릫쮾죏쪶떽뫩쮮놣쿕뫜쓑믱뗃펯샻ꎬ폚쫇늻퓙쳡릩뫩쮮놣쿕ꎬ?쏀맺솪냮헾뢮폚ㄹ㘸쓪춨맽ꆶ좫맺뫩쮮놣쿕램ꆷꎬ쳡돶쇋뫩쮮놣쿕뗄쿪뺡볆뮮ꎬ붫뫩쮮놣쿕ퟷ캪뻈퓖뗄훘튪듫쪩ꎬ늢폚ㄹ㘹쓪ꆢㄹ㜳쓪뫍ㄹ㤴쓪뛔룃볆뮮ퟷ쇋훘듳뗄탞룄뫍늹돤ꆣ쏀맺뫩쮮놣쿕뗄놣쿕튵컱쿈평짌튵놣쿕릫쮾틔ퟔ벺뗄쏻틥돐놣ꎬ좻뫳붫웤돐놣뗄놣쿕튵컱뫍쯹쫕좡뗄놣쿕럑좫늿붻룸솪냮놣쿕맜샭뻖ꎨ晥摥牡氠楮獵牡湣攠慤浩湩獴牡瑩潮?볲돆䙉?ꎩꎬ뛸짌튵놣쿕릫쮾횻쫇내쿺쫛놣떥쫽솿믱좡펶뷰ꎬ늢늻돐떣놣쿕엢뎥퓰죎ꆣ떱좻ꎬ룃볆뮮튲폐돐놣쿞뛮ꎬ내헕ㄹ㤴쓪뗄맺볒뫩쮮놣쿕탞헽램낸뗄맦뚨ꎬ뻓쏱힡햬랿컝뫍쫒쓚닆닺뗄ퟮ룟돐놣쿞뛮캪㈵췲쏀풪뫍췲쏀풪ꎬ헾뢮돐떣쿞뛮틔쓚뗄엢뎥퓰죎ꎬ뎬맽룃볆뮮돐놣쿞뛮뗄닆닺볛횵ꎬ춶놣죋뿉틔쿲짌튵놣쿕릫쮾춶놣ꎬ평짌튵놣쿕릫쮾돐떣엢뎥퓰죎ꆣ쏀맺맺볒뫩쮮놣쿕듸폐튻뚨뗄떯탔잿훆ꎬ튲뻍쫇헾뢮늢늻잿훆뻓쏱볒춥뫍킡웳튵훷뇘탫릺싲뫩쮮놣쿕ꎬ뛸쫇춨맽쿠펦뗄듸폐돍랣탔뗄헾닟듙뷸쯻쏇릺싲뫩쮮놣쿕ꎬ뇈죧ꎬ뛔폚뒦폚뫩랺쟸떫쎻폐릺싲뫩 14
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 쮮놣쿕뗄뻓쏱볒춥믲킡웳튵ꎬ틲뫩쮮퓬돉뗄닆닺쯰쪧ꎬ솪냮헾뢮늻룸폨퓖몦뻈볃뫍쯹뗃쮰복쏢ꆣ?戮?솪냮얩ퟷ컯놣쿕?쏀맺얩튵뺭뎣퓢쫜룷훖ퟔ좻퓖몦뗄쟖몦ꎬ캪쇋복짙뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ헾뢮볓듳솦뛈살틆얩튵뫍얩ퟷ컯럧쿕ꎬ놣쿕쫇튻훖뫜훘튪뗄틆랽쪽ꆣㄹ㌸쓪쏀맺붨솢쇋솪냮얩ퟷ컯놣쿕릫쮾ꎨFederal Crop Insurance Company?볲돆FCICꎩꎬ쯼쫇튻룶솪냮헾뢮폫뛠룶짌튵놣쿕릫쮾뫏펪뗄ퟩ횯ꆣퟮ돵ꎬ쏀맺헾뢮돐떣쇋얩ퟷ컯놣쿕뗄쯹폐퓋펪럑폃ꎬ떫쫇평폚웤럑싊ꋙ뫜룟ꎬ뫜뛠얩뮧뚼늻풸틢춶놣ꎨퟔ풸춶놣ꎩꆣ?캪쇋쳡룟얩ퟷ컯놣쿕뗄춶놣싊ꎬ쏀맺솪냮헾뢮퓚1980쓪ꆢ1994쓪뫍2000쓪죽듎탞룄쇋얩ퟷ컯놣쿕뗄쿠맘맦뚨ꎬ쳡룟쇋얩ퟷ컯놣쿕뗄놣럑늹쳹싊ꎬ믽벫맄샸얩뮧닎볓얩ퟷ컯놣쿕ꆣ폈웤쫇1994쓪ퟶ돶뗄탞헽랽낸쏷좷맦뚨ꎬ늻닎볓솪냮헾뢮얩ퟷ컯놣쿕뗄얩쏱늻쓜뗃떽헾뢮웤쯻뢣샻볆뮮ꎬ죧얩닺욷볛룱늹쳹뫍놣뮤볆뮮ꆢ얩닺욷듻뿮볆뮮뗈ꎬ헢뻍퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏듸폐잿뛈탔훊ꆣ 퓚솪냮얩ퟷ컯놣쿕볆뮮ꎨFederal Crop Insurance programꎬ볲돆FCIPꎩ샯ꎬ솪냮헾뢮캪얩쏱쳡릩쇋튻룶믹놾뻞퓖닺솿놣쿕ꎬ웤놣럑쫇쏢럑뗄ꎬ뎬맽믹놾뻞퓖닺솿놣쿕돐놣닣듎뗄ꎬ얩쏱뿉틔톡퓱릺싲헾뢮늹쳹볛룱뗄뛮췢놣쿕ꎬ헢훖뛮췢놣쿕춨뎣돆캪뎬싲돐놣ꎨbuy-upꎩꎬ뿉틔쫇닺솿놣쿕ꎬ튲뿉틔쫇쫕죫놣쿕ꆣ웤훐ꎬ닺솿놣쿕쫇붨솢퓚튻룶얩뎡4-10쓪욽뻹닺솿짏뗄ꎬ헢욽뻹닺솿퓚뺫쯣짏놻돆캪APH(Actual Production History)닺솿ꆣ얩뎡쫕죫놣쿕짦벰떽APH닺솿뫍튻룶볛룱횸쫽ꎬ헢룶횸쫽랴펳놾맺쳘쫢짌욷뗄볛룱맬벣ꆣ 솪냮얩ퟷ컯놣쿕뗄쿺쫛ꆢ뺭펪뫍샭엢평짌튵놣쿕릫쮾살닙ퟷꎬ짌튵놣쿕릫쮾늻쓜뻜뻸죎뫎럻뫏닎놣룱얩쏱뗄춶놣ꎬ뛸늻맜헢얩쏱뗄맽좥쯰쪧볇슼죧뫎ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ솪냮헾뢮튲캪짌튵놣쿕릫쮾쳡릩튻훖퓙놣쿕믺훆ꎬ쯼퓊탭짌튵놣쿕릫쮾퓚튻뚨랶캧쓚뻶뚨쓄킩놣떥ퟔ쇴쓄킩놣떥죃룸헾뢮ꎬ헢훖짨볆돆캪뇪ힼ퓙놣쿕킭틩ꆣ룃킭틩맦뚨헾뢮뛔놣쿕릫쮾쳡릩뺭펪맜샭럑폃뗈늹쳹ꎬ듓뛸맄샸놣쿕릫쮾닎폫얩ퟷ컯놣쿕볆뮮ꆣ ㈮㌮㈠죕놾뻞퓖놣쿕룅뿶?愮?뗘헰놣쿕?죕놾쫇튻룶짮쫜ퟔ좻퓖몦쟖쾮뗄맺볒ꎬ폈웤쫇뗘헰퓖몦ꎬ룸죕놾쏱훚듸살쇋뻞듳뗄짺쏼 ꋙ 럑싊뗄샥뚨ꆢ탂쿕훖뗄짳엺뫍쿖폐놣쿕닺욷뗄볠맜평쏀맺얩튵늿쏅쿂쫴뗄럧쿕맜샭믺릹뢺퓰ꆣ 15
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뫍닆닺쯰쪧ꆣ죕놾헾뢮캪쇋낲훃퓖뫳쫜퓖쏱훚뫍믖뢴볒풰닉좡쇋뫜뛠듫쪩ꎬ웤훐틔ㄹ㘶쓪죕놾맺믡춨맽뗄뗘헰놣쿕램캪헛뗣ꎬ룃램싉뗄냤늼쫇틔ㄹ㘴쓪탂킺뗘헰퓖몦캪웵믺ꆣ?죕놾뗘헰놣쿕틀뻝닆닺샠탍뿉럖캪솽훖ꎺ뗚튻훖돆캪볒춥닆닺뗄뗘헰놣쿕ꎬ웤놣헏뛔쿳쫇폃폚뻓쏱뻓힡뗄랿컝벰웤폃폚뻓쏱짺믮뗄볒폃닆닺죧틂럾ꆢ볒뻟뗈죕뎣짺믮폃욷ꎻ뗚뛾훖돆캪웳튵닆닺뗄뗘헰놣쿕ꎬ훷튪돐놣짌튵붨훾뗈ꆣ죕놾뗘헰놣쿕틔믰쿕뗄뢽볓탎쪽돐놣ꆣ?죕놾뗘헰놣쿕훆뛈뗄쳘쫢탔쳥쿖퓚볒춥닆닺뗄뗘헰놣쿕짏ꎬ벴퓙놣쿕훆뛈뗄붨솢ꆣ죕놾룷놣쿕릫쮾닎막돉솢죕놾뗘헰퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎨ䩡灡渠敡牴桱畡步敩湳畲慮捥?볲돆䩅?ꎩꎬ춬쪱캪쇋럖떣놣쿕릫쮾뗘헰럧쿕놩슶ꎬ헾뢮뛔뗘헰퓙놣쿕릫쮾뷸탐ꆰ퓙퓙놣쿕ꆱꆣ웤뻟쳥뺭펪쒣쪽죧춼???ꋙ쯹쪾ꎺ?볒춥닆닺좫뛮럖놣 좫뛮 춶놣죋 놣쿕릫쮾 럖놣 죕놾뗘헰퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎨJERꎩ 뎬뛮 웳튵닆닺뇈샽럖엤헾뢮 짌튵럖놣략믘 퓙놣쿕릫쮾 ퟔ쇴퓙럖놣 춼2-1ꎺ죕놾뗘헰놣쿕퓋탐쒣쪽 죧짏춼쯹쪾ꎺ놣쿕릫쮾쿈횱뷓돐놣볒춥닆닺뗄뗘헰놣쿕튵컱ꎬ퓙좫늿럖놣룸죕놾뗘헰퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎨ䩅?ꎩꎬ룃릫쮾ퟔ쇴튻늿럖췢ꎬ내룷놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뗄닆닺놣쿕뗄쫐뎡럝뛮퓙믘럖룸룷놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ횮뫳퓙평죕놾뗘헰퓙놣쿕릫쮾폫헾뢮뚩솢뎬뛮쯰쪧퓙놣쿕ꆣ뛸뗘헰놣쿕엢뿮ힼ놸뷰퓲평룷볒놣쿕릫쮾퓚쎿튻믡볆쓪뛈뷡쫸쪱ꎬ듓ퟔ쇴놣럑훐뿛돽튵컱럑폃뫳ꎬ샛믽ퟷ캪뗘헰놣쿕엢뿮ힼ놸뷰ꎬ룃ힼ놸뷰ퟮ뫳좫늿캯췐죕놾뗘헰퓙놣쿕릫쮾맜샭벰퓋폃ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ캪쇋놣횤뗘헰랢짺뫳쓜릻벰쪱뛔퓖쏱뷸탐샭엢ꎬ뗘헰놣쿕엢뿮ힼ놸뷰횻쓜틔헾뢮햮좯뗄탎쪽볓틔퓋폃ꆣ?戮?죕놾얩튵릲볃놣쿕?죕놾헾뢮캪쇋놣헏얩튵뺭볃뺭펪뗄컈뚨탔뫍얩듥뺭볃뗄뿉돖탸랢햹ꎬ틔램싉탎쪽붨솢웰얩튵놣쿕훆뛈ꆣㄹ㐷쓪ㄲ퓂ꎬ죕놾탞뚩늢쪵쪩쇋냼삨얩ퟷ컯뫍볒탳볒쟝놣쿕퓚쓚뗄탂뗄얩튵놣쿕램ꆪꆪꆶ얩튵퓖몦늹뎥램ꆷꎬ퓚좫맺랶캧쓚췆탐얩튵놣쿕훆뛈ꆣ? ꋙ 뛅쇖ꎮ죕놾뗘헰놣쿕쒣쪽럖컶벰뷨본ꎮ뷰죚쇬폲ꎮ. 16
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 죕놾뗄얩튵놣쿕훆뛈쫇튻훖램뚨놣쿕뫍ퟔ풸놣쿕쿠뷡뫏뗄놣쿕훆뛈ꎬ쯹폐얩ퟷ컯룻훖쏦믽듯떽맦뚨맦쒣뗄얩뮧ꎬ퓲뇘탫닎볓얩튵놣쿕ꎬ쎻폐듯떽풤뚨맦쒣뗄얩뮧ꎬ벴킡맦쒣얩ퟷ컯훖횲얩뮧ꎬ뿉틔ퟔ평톡퓱쫇럱닎볓얩튵놣쿕ꎬ떫쫇내헾뢮맦뚨훖횵떾마ꆢ킡싳ꆢ퇸횳뗄얩뮧ꎬ컞탨춶놣뻍ퟔ뚯닎볓쇋놣쿕ꆣ컞싛쫇램뚨놣쿕뮹쫇ퟔ풸놣쿕ꎬ얩뮧뚼쿭쫜헾뢮뗄늹쳹ꎬ늹쳹뇈샽폫쪵볊럑싊돉헽쿠맘ꎬ뇈죧럑싊퓚㈥틔쿂쪱ꎬ헾뢮룸폨㔰?뗄늹쳹ꎬ떱럑싊캪㈥?㐥쪱ꎬ헾뢮늹쳹짽캪㔵?ꎬ뛸떱럑싊퓚㐥틔짏쪱ꎬ헾뢮늹쳹퓲룟듯㘰?ꆣ?죕놾얩튵놣쿕닉좡쇋ꆰ죽벶ꆱ훆듥쏱릲볃훆뛈ꎬ벴평쫐ꆢꆢ듥횱뷓돐냬룷훖얩튵놣쿕튵컱뗄얩튵릲볃ퟩ뫏ꎨ풭놣쿕ꎩꎻ럖떣얩튵릲볃ퟩ뫏놣쿕퓰죎뗄뢮ꆢ쿘튻벶뗄얩튵릲볃ퟩ뫏솪뫏믡ꎨ쳡릩튻벶퓙놣쿕ꎩꎻ평맺볒튻벶뗄퓙놣쿕쳘뇰믡볆뒦뛔얩튵릲볃ퟩ뫏솪뫏믡쳡릩ퟮ뫳놣헏ꎨ뛾벶퓙놣쿕ꎩꆣ쇭췢ꎬ얩튵릲볃믹뷰평솪뫏믡뫍훐퇫헾뢮릲춬돶붨돉ꎬ듳퓖횮쓪뿉쿲솪뫏믡쳡릩듻뿮ꆣ춼???ꋙ쏨쫶쇋죕놾얩튵놣쿕뗄뺭펪쒣쪽ꆣ?춶놣 퓙놣쿕 퓙놣쿕 얩뮧얩튵릲볃 얩튵릲볃 퓙놣쿕 ퟩ뫏 ퟩ뫏솪뫏믡 쳘뇰믡볆뒦 춶듻뿮믹뷰늹쳹춶 얩튵릲볃믹뷰훐퇫헾뢮 춼???ꎺ죕놾얩튵놣쿕뺭펪쒣쪽? 죕놾얩튵붨솢퓚럖즢뗄ꆢ룶쳥얩뮧킡맦쒣뺭펪뗄믹뒡횮짏ꎬ얩튵놣쿕쫇죕놾헾뢮캪쇋펦뢶ퟔ좻퓖몦룸얩튵듸살뗄뫳맻ꎬ늢퓚놣럑짏룸폨닆헾늹쳹ꎬ틔놣헏얩튵퓙짺닺뗄뺭펪컈뚨ꎬ쪹횮쫊펦맺쏱뺭볃뗄룟쯙랢햹뛸닉좡뗄튻훖훘튪뗄횧돖탎쪽ꆣ죕놾뗄얩ퟷ컯놣쿕볆뮮튲좡뗃쇋쿔훸뗄킧맻ꎬ캪얩쏱뫍쿻럑헟듸살늻킡뗄쪵믝ꆣ?㈮??컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕튵랢햹실뫳뗄풭틲?듓짏뷚훐뾴돶ꎬ쏀맺뫍죕놾퓚춨맽뻞퓖놣쿕펦뛔뻞퓖럧쿕쪱ꎬ뻹쫊쪱훆뚨쇋쿠맘램싉램맦볓틔쏷좷웤쫇럱잿훆탔ꎬ늢맦랶웤뺭펪맜샭ꎬ늢쟒헾뢮퓚웤훐튲웰떽쇋믽벫뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃ꆣ?폫맺췢뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹쿠뇈ꎬ컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕튵실뫳뗄튻룶뫜훘튪뗄풭틲쫇쎻폐붨솢웰췪놸 ꋙ 샮횾톧ꎬ돌쏍. 쏀맺뫍죕놾뗄얩튵놣쿕쒣쪽벰웤뛔컒쏇뗄웴쪾ꆣ컷낲쪯폍듳톧톧놨ꎨ짧믡뿆톧냦ꎩꆣꎬP15-19 17
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뗄뻞퓖놣쿕놣헏쳥쾵ꎬ헾뢮퓚웤훐뗄ퟷ폃쎻폐쳥쿖돶살ꎬ춬쪱쎻폐쿠맘뗄뻞퓖놣쿕램ퟶ틀췐ꆣ뻟쳥떽놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ뛔뻞퓖럧쿕췻뛸좴늽뗄훷튪풭틲폐ꎺ????좱랦뺭펪벼쫵?놣쿕쫇튻쏅뿆톧ꎬ놣쿕죋튪뷸탐튵컱뺭펪ꎬ쫗쿈튪볆쯣놣쿕닺욷뗄럑싊ꎬ튲뻍쫇뇘탫틀뻝샺쪷뗄쯰쪧춳볆쇏ꎬ퓋폃듳쫽램퓲ꎬ뇈뷏뺫좷뗘풤닢쯰쪧랢짺뗄룅싊뫍쯰쪧돌뛈ꎬ좻뫳좷뚨럑싊ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ뺭펪뻞퓖놣쿕뮹탨튪뻟놸뗄벼쫵폐죭볾벼쫵ꎬ쮮컄릤돌벼쫵ꎬ뗘샭탅쾢쾵춳뮷뺳뫍짨놸뗈뛠톧뿆뗄튵벼쫵횪쪶ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ컒맺쒿잰볈쎻폐붨솢웰맘폚뻞퓖쫂볾뗄쫽뻝뿢ꎬ춬쪱튲좱랦뛔뻞퓖놣쿕튵벼쫵죋닅뗄춶죫ꎬ퓙볓짏뮷뺳뛱뮯ꆢ짧믡닆뢻퓶볓ꆢ뺭볃랢햹ꎬ뻞퓖랢짺뗄욵싊뫍쯰쪧돌뛈뚼폐짏짽뗄쟽쫆ꎬ훂쪹놣쿕릫쮾컞램뛔뻞퓖퓖몦뿉쓜퓬돉뗄쯰쪧뷸탐쿠뛔ힼ좷뗄뫢솿뫍냑컕ꎬ컞램뾪랢짨볆돶훖샠럡뢻뗄뻞퓖놣쿕닺욷ꎬ듓뛸뛔뺭펪뻞퓖놣쿕튵컱뗄첬뛈뇈뷏뷷짷ꆣ????좱랦돤ퟣ뗄놣쿕뷰?놣쿕죋튪쿫놣횤웤뎥뢶쓜솦ꎬ뇘탫폐ퟣ릻뗄ힼ놸뷰ꎬ컒맺램싉튲맦뚨놣쿕죋뛔쫕좡뗄놣럑뇘탫내맦뚨쳡좡룷쿮ힼ놸뷰ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ뻞퓖쫴폚랢짺욵싊킡ꆢ쯰쪧돌뛈룟뗄럧쿕ꎬ평폚뻞퓖랢짺룅싊컞램룹뻝샺쪷쫽뻝볆쯣뗃떽ꎬ틲듋퓵퇹쳡좡ힼ놸뷰ꎬ쳡좡뛠짙ꎬ쫇럱ퟣ릻ꎬ횵뗃뮳틉ꆣ볓짏샺쓪살컒맺뛔뻞퓖쫂볾뗄돐놣폐쿞ꎬ쯹틔떽쒿잰캪횹ꎬ믽샛쿂살뗄ힼ놸뷰튲뫜폐쿞ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ튻듎뻞퓖쫂볾뗄랢짺ꎬ뫜뿉쓜떼훂웤웆닺ꆣ쓃㈰〸쓪뗄뒨뗘헰살쮵ꎬ웤횱뷓뺭볃쯰쪧캪8451틚풪ꎬ뛸떱쓪뗄좫늿닆닺놣쿕릫쮾놣럑쫕죫튲횻폐틚풪ꋙꎬ쯰쪧햼떽좫쓪놣럑쫕죫뗄%ꎬ죧듋룟뗄쯰쪧ꎬ듳늿럖놣쿕릫쮾뚼컞솦돐떣ꎬ틲듋ꎬ튪쿫돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ뇘탫놣횤폐ퟣ릻뗄뷰살횧돖ꆣ????럧쿕뗃늻떽뫜뫃뗄럖즢?틀뻝뒫춳뗄럧쿕럖즢랽쪽ꎬ뿉틔냑뻞퓖럧쿕럖즢떽퓙놣쿕쫐뎡짏ꎬ떫평폚컒맺퓙놣쿕쫐뎡맦쒣킡ꎬ벼쫵실뫳ꎬ돐떣뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쓜솦쪮럖폐쿞ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ늻쓜돤럖랢믓퓙놣쿕뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뛸쟒컒맺놣쿕쫐뎡룕룕뛔췢뾪럅ꎬ뮹쎻폐폫맺볊퓙놣쿕쫐뎡뷸탐뷴쏜뗄솪쾵ꎬ컞램돤럖뗘냑뻞퓖럧쿕럖즢떽맺볊퓙놣쿕쫐뎡짏ꆣ?쯹틔ꎬ캪쇋랢믓놣쿕퓚맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ돽쇋튻뚨뗄벼쫵ꆢ램싉뗈쳵볾췢ꎬ죧뫎쓜릻믱좡떽돤ퟣ뗄뷰ꆢ죧뫎쓜릻냑뻞퓖럧쿕럖즢돶좥돉캪뇘탫뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꆣ? ꋙ 2008쓪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾풭놣쿕놣럑쫕죫쟩뿶뇭ꎮ훐맺놣쿕볠맜샭캯풱믡췸햾ꎮ2009,1,22 18
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 킡뷡?놾헂훷튪럖컶쇋맺쓚췢뻞퓖놣쿕랢햹쿖ힴꆣ춨맽놾헂뗄뷩짜컒쏇뿉틔쇋뷢떽컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕튵실뫳뗄튻룶뫜훘튪뗄풭틲쫇놣쿕릫쮾돐놣쓜솦늻ퟣꎬ컞램냑뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢돶좥ꆣ????????????????????????????????????? 19
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ㌠뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆럖컶?헫뛔좫쟲놣쿕튵뗄삧뺳ꎬ폈웤쫇컒맺ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾벸뫵컞솦돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ놾헂붫듓샭싛짏럖컶솽훖뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꎬ벴퓙놣쿕뫍뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯ꆣ퓚퇐뺿뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯훐ꎬ훷튪럖컶쇋컥훖뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷ꆣ?㌮?뒫춳뗄럧쿕럖즢랽쪽ꆪꆪ퓙놣쿕?㌮ㄮㄠ퓙놣쿕뗄몬틥?퓙놣쿕ꎨreinsuranceꎩ튲돆럖놣ꎬ쫇뛔놣쿕죋쯹돐떣뗄캣쿕엢뎥퓰죎뗄놣쿕ꆣ춨쯗뗘쮵ꎬ퓙놣쿕뻍쫇ꆰ놣쿕죋뗄놣쿕ꆱꆣ떱놣쿕죋돐놣뗄횱뷓놣쿕튵컱뷰뛮뷏듳쟒캣쿕맽폚벯훐쪱ꎬ뻍튪춨맽퓙놣쿕냑맽럖벯훐뗄캣쿕퓰죎틆돶좥ꎬ듓뛸놣헏풭놣쿕죋뗄뺭볃샻틦ꆣ?컒맺ꆶ놣쿕램ꆷ맦뚨ꎬ놣쿕죋붫웤돐떣뗄놣쿕튵컱ꎬ틔돐놣뗄탎쪽ꎬ늿럖틆룸웤쯻놣쿕죋뗄캪퓙놣쿕ꎬ죧맻럖놣뷓쫜죋폖붫웤뷓쫜뗄퓙놣쿕튵컱퓙럖룸웤쯻놣쿕죋ꎬ퓲놻돆캪럖놣ꎬ쮫랽럖뇰놻돆캪럖놣럖돶죋뫍럖놣뷓쫜죋ꆣ?㌮ㄮ??퓙놣쿕퓚틆풭뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕뗄ퟷ폃?뻞퓖뎬엢퓙놣쿕튻냣쫇톰쟳뻞퓖쯰쪧놣헏뗄놣쿕릫쮾뗄ퟮ병톡퓱ꎬ듋샠놣쿕맦뚨ꎬ떱풼뚨뗄뻞퓖쫂볾믲럧쿕랢짺쪱ꎬ퓲쿲풭놣쿕릫쮾횧뢶웤뎬맽웰엢뗣ꎨ뗗쿞ꎩ떽횹엢뗣ꎨ풼뚨짏쿞ꎩ횮쓚뗄쯹폐쯰쪧ꆣ풭놣쿕릫쮾쿲퓙놣쿕릫쮾틆럧쿕뗄돌뛈뿉틔춨맽럖놣뇈샽살뫢솿ꆣ뻝sigma쇏ꋙ쿔쪾ꎬ춨맽뛔84볒릫쮾뗄퇹놾쫽뻝럖컶ꎬ2007쓪럇쫙쿕튵컱뗄럖놣뇈샽듳풼캪27%ꆣ 퓙놣쿕퓚럖떣뻞퓖쯰쪧랽쏦냧퇝ퟅ훘튪뗄뷇즫ꎬ쓜릻쪹놣쿕죋퓚웤뷰뫍럧쿕횮볤듯떽욽뫢ꎬ춨맽퓙놣쿕튵컱ꎬ럧쿕듓풭놣쿕죋틆떽퓙놣쿕죋ꆣ룹뻝폐맘죰쪿퓙놣쿕뗄춳볆쇏ꎬ2005쓪폐12%뗄놣쿕릫쮾듓퓙놣쿕릫쮾뗃떽뗄뻞퓖쯰쪧엢뿮뎬맽쇋웤놾뷰ꎬ듳풼23%뗄풭놣쿕릫쮾듓퓙놣쿕릫쮾뗃떽뗄엢뿮뎬맽쇋웤막뚫좨틦뗄죽럖횮튻ꎨ볻춼3-1ꎩꆣ뛔헢킩놣쿕릫쮾뛸퇔ꎬ죧맻쎻폐릺싲퓙놣쿕ꎬ뻞퓖쯰쪧붫믡쪹쯻쏇뗄놾ힴ뿶쫜떽췾킲ꆣ ꋙ Sigma 2009/2ꎮ2008쓪뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦폫죋캪퓖쓑ꎺ놱쏀뫍퇇훞퇏훘쫜퓖ꎮ 20
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ?춼???ꋙ?붫놣쿕릫쮾내ퟔ좻퓖몦퓙놣쿕쯰쪧엢뿮폫놾뇈싊?럖ퟩꎬ쯹폐놻럖컶뗄놣쿕릫쮾내쎫놣럑럝뛮럖ퟩ?㌮ㄮ?퓙놣쿕퓚럖즢풭뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕훐뗄늻ퟣ?퓙놣쿕쫐뎡훷튪평튵퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꆢ볦펪퓙놣쿕튵컱뗄릫쮾틔벰쟸폲탔ꆢ맺볊탔뗄퓙놣쿕벯췅릫쮾ퟩ돉ꎬ퓙놣쿕쫐뎡춨맽풭놣쿕죋럖돶늿럖튵컱ꎬ듯떽좫쫀뷧믲쟸폲탔랶캧쓚럖즢풭놣쿕죋럧쿕뗄쒿뗄ꎬ쫇풭놣쿕뗄훘튪횧돖ꆣ룷맺램싉튻냣뚼맦뚨ꎬ떱풭놣쿕죋뗄럧쿕듯떽튻뚨돌뛈짏ꎬ뇘탫뛔웤뷸탐럖놣ꎬ튲뻍쫇냑럧쿕틆룸퓙놣쿕죋ꆣ폈웤쫇뛔폚뻞퓖럧쿕ꆣ?떫헢훖랽쪽쫇늻쫇믡붫풭놣쿕릫쮾뗄뻞퓖럧쿕좫늿틆돶좥쓘ꎿ듰낸쫇럱뚨뗄ꆣ튻쫇탨튪퓙놣쿕럖첯뗄뻞퓖쯰쪧맦쒣뻞듳ꎬ퓙놣쿕쫐뎡쎻폐ퟣ릻뗄돐놣쓜솦살럖죫놣쿕ꎬ뛾쫇쓜릻쳡릩뗄뻞퓖쯰쪧퓙놣쿕튲쪮럖폐쿞ꎬ튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ튻듎듳뗄뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺뫳ꎬ췹췹믡냩쯦ퟅ퓙?놣쿕럑싊짏짽ꎬ릩룸쿂붵뗄쿖쿳ꆣ죧춼???ꎺ??춼??㈠뻞퓖퓙놣쿕럑싊뇤뮯춼ꋚ? ꋙ Sigma 2009/2ꎮ2008쓪뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦폫죋캪퓖쓑ꎺ놱쏀뫍퇇훞퇏훘쫜퓖. ꋚ Kenneth A. Froot, The intermediation of financial risks: Evolution in the catastrophe reinsurance market, ABI/INFORM Research, Risk Management and Insurance Review, fall 2008. 21
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 듓춼훐뾴돶ꎬㄹ㤳쓪ꆢㄹ㤴쓪ꆢ㈰〶쓪퓙놣쿕럑싊퓚욽뮺훐춻퓶ꎬ헢쫇냝ㄹ㤲쓪랢짺䡵牲楣慮攠䅮摲敷ꆢㄹ㤳쓪랢짺뗄乯牴桲楤来慲瑨煵慫?뫍㈰〵쓪䡵牲楣慮敳?䭡瑲楮愬坩汭愬剩瑡쯹듍ꆣ퓚튻듎듳뗄뻞퓖랢짺뫳ꎬ죋쏇췹췹뛔뻞퓖놣쿕뗄탨쟳벤퓶ꎬ뛸듋쪱ꎬ퓙놣쿕죋뗄풤웚럑싊튲믡퓶볓ꎬ퓙놣쿕럑싊틲듋벤퓶ꎬ늻뷶죧듋ꎬ캪뇜쏢뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ듳늿럖퓙놣쿕릫쮾듋쪱뮹믡복짙뛔뻞퓖퓙놣쿕뗄릩룸ꆣ풭놣쿕릫쮾평폚늻쓜돤럖뗘냑뻞퓖럧쿕틆떽퓙놣쿕쫐뎡짏ꎬ튲믡복짙뛔뻞퓖럧쿕퓰죎뗄돐놣ꆣ헢쪱뻍탎돉쇋튻룶쎬뛜ꎬ뻞퓖놣쿕탨쟳퓶볓ꎬ뛸릩룸복짙ꆣ튪듲웆헢훖늻욽뫢ꎬ맘볼쫇튪쳡룟놣쿕릫쮾뗄릩룸ꎬ뛸튪쳡룟릩룸ꎬ뻍튪복짙놣쿕릫쮾뗄돐놣럧쿕ꎬ뛸퓚퓙놣쿕쫐뎡럖즢럧쿕늻돤럖뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ횻쓜톰쟳탂뗄춾뺶살럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕ꆪꆪ춨맽뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯냑뻞퓖럧쿕럖즢떽놾쫐뎡짏ꆣ?㌮??럇뒫춳뗄럧쿕럖즢랽쪽ꆪꆪ뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯?㌮㈮??뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺짺뗄놳뺰?듓1970쓪뾪쪼ꎬ횤좯뮯튻횱냩쯦ퟅ퇜짺벼쫵뗄랢햹놻듳솿뗘펦폃떽틸탐뗈뷰죚쇬폲ꆣ퓚놣쿕쇬폲훐ꎬ횤좯뮯뗄펦폃퓲쿠뛔뷏췭ꎬ뗚튻럝놣쿕횤좯뮯닺욷쫇1992쓪퓚횥볓룧웚믵붻틗쯹ꎨCBOTꎩ붻틗뗄뻞퓖웚믵ꎬ듋뫳늻뻃폖돶쿖쇋뻞퓖뾴헇뾴뗸웚좨ꎬ헢킩웚좨쫇틔평쏀맺뗄놣쿕럾컱뻖쿂쫴뗄닆닺샭엢늿ꎨPCSꎩ뇠킴뗄뻞퓖쯰쪧횸쫽캪믹뒡ꎬ뫳틲붻틗솿뷏짙ꎬ헢킩맘폚뻞퓖퇜짺욷뗄뫏춬쯦횮좡쿻ꆣ퓚1997쓪ꎬ냙쒽듳짌욷붻틗쯹ꎨBCEꎩ튲쫔춼뎢쫔붨솢튻룶뻞퓖웚좨쫐뎡ꎬ떫쫇춬퇹평폚좱랦붻틗솿뛸ퟮ훕럅웺ꆣ쯤좻뫳살폖폐쯹랢햹ꎬ떫횤좯뮯퓚놣쿕랽쏦뗄펦폃ퟮ캪돉릦뗄퓲쫇뻞퓖햮좯ꆣ1994쓪몺억췾퓙놣쿕벯췅ꎨHannover Re Groupꎩ돉릦랢탐좫쟲쫗횧뻞퓖햮좯틔살ꎬ쫜퓙놣쿕볛룱뫍웤쯻틲쯘뗄펰쿬뻞퓖햮좯랢햹뗀슷늢늻욽첹ꎨSwiss Reꎬ2001ꎩꆣ듓2005쓪ꆰ뾨쳘샯쓈ꆱ럧랢짺뫳ꎬ놣쿕쫐뎡벱탨냑뻞퓖럧쿕틆돶좥ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯튲뻍돉캪쇋쫗튪톡퓱ꎬ웤붻틗솿튲벱쯙퓶볓ꎬ떽2007쓪랢탐ퟜ뛮퓶캪70뛠틚쏀풪ꋙꆣ2008쓪뷰죚캣믺놬랢ꎬ냧퇝뻞퓖햮좯떣놣헟뷇즫뗄샗싼탖뗜웆닺ꎬ춶헟뛔뻞퓖햮좯쫐뎡탅탄튻뛈뇀삣ꎬ룃쓪쯄벾뛈뻞퓖햮좯쫐뎡쎻폐죎뫎랢탐믮뚯ꎬ랢탐ퟜ뛮벱쯙쿂붵캪30틚쏀풪ꎬ떽쇋2009쓪ꎬ평폚뷰죚쫐뎡웕뇩믘얯ꎬ쳡룟쇋춶헟뛔놾쫐뎡뗄탅탄ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯랢탐솿폐쯹퓶볓ꎬ뻝훸쏻뗄Guy Carpenter럧쿕톯릫쮾2009쓪10퓂13죕랢늼뗄튻럝놨룦돆ꎬ풤볆 ꋙ 좫쟲뻞퓖햮좯랢탐솿폐췻짏짽ꎬ2009ꎬ9ꎬ14 ,뚥뗣닆뺭췸ꎬ /. 22
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 2009쓪붫랢탐40틚쏀풪ꋙꆣ뻞퓖햮좯뗄펦폃늻뷶쳡룟쇋놣쿕튵뗄돐놣쓜솦ꎬ튲캪춶헟쳡릩쇋튻훖듓럖즢뮯춶ퟩ뫏훐믱좡뷏룟쫕틦뗄폐킧랽쪽ꆣ쯦ퟅ쫐뎡짏뛔뻞퓖횤좯뮯닺욷뗄탨쟳뗄늻뛏퓶볓ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯풽살풽쟷쿲폚뇪ힼ뮯ꎬ듓뛸뿉틔룼뫃뗘캪랢탐헟ꆢ춶헟ꆢ움벶믺릹뫍볠맜헟럾컱ꆣ 뻞퓖럧쿕퓚놾쫐뎡훐뗄럖즢쫇춨맽튻쾵쇐뒴탂뗄뷰죚릤뻟쪵쿖뗄ꎬ헢킩뷰죚릤뻟튲벴횤좯뮯닺욷폐ꎺ뻞퓖햮좯ꎨcatastrophe bondsꎩꎬ뻞퓖웚믵(catastrophe futures)ꎬ뻞퓖웚좨ꎨcatastrophe optionsꎩ뗈ꆣ ㌮㈮?뻞퓖햮좯ꎨ捡瑡獴牯灨攠扯湤?ꎩ?뻞퓖햮좯쫇웹뷱캪횹쯹폐뗄뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷훐ퟮ돉릦ꆢퟮ뗤탍ꆢퟮ훘튪뗄튻훖ꆣ뻞퓖햮좯쫇튻훖쳘쫢뗄릫쮾햮좯ꎬ쯼쫇횸놣쿕죋캪쇋틆돐놣뗄뻞퓖럧쿕뛸랢탐뗄튻훖폐“캥풼”뿉쓜뗄햮좯ꎬ벴퓚햮좯랢탐쪱ꎬ풼뚨캴살퓚쒳훖쳘뚨쫂볾돶쿖뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ춶헟탨럅웺뻞퓖햮좯뗄늿럖믲좫늿샻쾢뫍/믲놾뷰ꆣ 뻞퓖햮좯뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾살쮵늻뷶뿉틔냑뻞퓖럧쿕틆룸놾쫐뎡뗄춶헟뛸쟒튲뿉틔퓶볓웤돐놣쓜솦ꎻ뛔폚춶살쮵ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯폐뷏룟뗄풤웚쫕틦ꎬ뿉틔쳡릩뷏뫃뗄춶믘놨ꆣ뻞퓖햮좯샻싊췹췹뇈뒫춳뗄릫쮾햮뫍뒫춳뗄뻟폐쿠춬뗄탅폃움벶뗄닺뗖톺탍닺욷ꎨMBSs, credit card receivablesꎩ룟ꎬ쫐뎡짏A-1(AAA)벶뗄뻞퓖햮좯뗄샻싊캪LIBOR+%ꎬ뛸A-2(BB)벶뻞퓖햮좯뗄샻싊캪LIBOR+%ꋚꎬ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯뿉틔쪹춶ퟩ뫏뛠퇹뮯ꎬ쪵횤럖컶뇭쏷ꎬ폫뻞퓖놣쿕쿠맘쫂볾뗄랢짺뫍막욱ꆢ햮좯쫕틦늻쿠맘ꆣ틲듋ꎬ춶폚뻞퓖횤좯믡복짙춶ퟩ뫏뗄헻쳥럧쿕ꆣ뻝Guy Carpenter릫쮾맀볆ꎬ쿲60%ꆢ40%뗄막욱뫍햮좯춶ퟩ뫏볓죫2%뗄뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ믡붵뗍%뗄춶쫕틦뇪ힼ닮ꋛꆣ ㌮㈮?뻞퓖웚믵?捡瑡獴牯灨攠晵瑵牥???1985쓪횥볓룧쎳틗톧풺췆돶쇋쫀뷧짏뗚튻훖뻞퓖놣쿕웚믵ꎬ늢폚1992쓪12퓂퓚횥볓룧웚믵붻틗쯹ꎨCBOTꎩ(쏀맺ퟮ듳뗄웚믵붻틗쯹)뾪쪼붻틗ꎬ룃뻞퓖웚믵쫇틔ISO횸쫽살뫢솿쯰쪧ꆣ 뻞퓖웚믵뻟쳥퓋ퟷ죧쿂ꎺ ꋙ 2009쓪뻞퓖햮좯랢탐붫듯떽40틚쏀풪ꎬ2009ꎬ10ꎬ21,훐맺놣쿕톧믡췸ꎬ? ꋚ?컢뻼ꎬ쯯쿾뾥ꎬ싛뻞퓖햮좯퓚컒맺뗄랢햹ꎬ놣쿕퇐뺿ꎬ㈰〴⸱?ꎬ倱??㈱ꆣ?ꋛ The Catastrophe Bond Market at Year-End 2006, 2007 Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. 23
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ISO퓚100볒닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄쯰쪧쇏훐ꎬ톡뚨22볒캪뻞퓖쯰쪧뗄릫쮾놨룦ꎬ뛔좫쏀뷸탐뗘쟸뮯럖ꎬퟮ뾪쪼뮯럖캪솽훖ꎺ좫맺탔뗄ꎬ틔헻룶맺볒캪믹뒡ꎻ뚫늿뗘쟸ꎬ틔쒫컷룧듳컷퇳뫍쒫컷룧췥퇘낶룷훝캪훷ꎬ뫳살폖퓶볓쇋컷늿뗘쟸뫍훐컷늿뗘쟸ꎬ룹뻝룷뗘쟸쎿벾뗄틑랢짺쯰쪧ꎬ틀뻝쯰쪧맀쯣틲ퟓ뮻볆쯣돶쎿쟸뻞퓖쯰쪧뷰뛮뫳ꎬ퓙돽틔쎿벾풤맀싺웚놣럑ꎬ뗃돶떱벾뻞퓖쯰쪧싊ꎬ듋쯰쪧싊벴캪뻞퓖웚믵뗄붻틗횸쫽ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬISO쳡릩뗄뻞퓖웚믵쯹돐떣뗄뻞퓖럧쿕캪WindꆢHailꆢEarthquakeꆢRiotꆢFlood뗈컥훖ퟔ좻퓖몦ꆣ 뻞퓖웚믵뗄볛횵캪ꎺ뻞퓖쯰쪧볛횵돽틔싺웚놣럑ꎬ퓙돋틔25ꎬ000쏀풪ꎨ쎿떥캻웚믵뷰뛮캪25ꎬ000쏀풪ꎩꆣ틲듋ꎬ쪵볊짏ꎬ웚믵볛룱캪뻞퓖쯰쪧싊돋틔25ꎬ000ꆣCBOT캪쇋뿘훆웚믵뫏춬뗄캥풼럧쿕ꎬ쿞훆풤웚쯰쪧싊ퟮ룟캪200%ꎬ튲뻍쫇웚믵볛룱ퟮ룟캪50ꎬ000쏀풪ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ평폚좫맺뫏춬돵쪼볛룱캪2ꎬ000풪ꎬ싴랽죔쏦쇙ퟅ쿠떱듳뗄잱퓚쯰쪧ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뻞퓖웚믵볛횵뗄쫽톧뇭듯캪ꎺ L(T)F(T)=25,000×Min(,2) (3-1) p웤훐L(T)ꎺ쎿벾횮틑랢짺쯰쪧ꎨincurred lossꎩ pꎺ쎿벾횮싺웚놣럑ꎨearned premiumsꎩ 평폚싺웚놣럑퓚뻞퓖웚믵붻틗횮잰뻍틑맀쯣뗃돶ꎬ뛸쟒웤퓚뫏춬웚볤뚼늻믡룄뇤ꎬ틲듋ꎬ뻞퓖웚믵뗄볛룱췪좫평뫏춬웚볤쓚쫇럱랢짺뻞퓖틔벰랢짺쪱뻞퓖쯰쪧듳킡살뻶뚨ꆣ 잰쏦쳡떽ꎬISO쫇룹뻝쎿벾룷뗘쟸뗄쯰쪧살볆쯣뻞퓖횸쫽ꎬ헢샯ꎬ쎿벾뗄싲싴붻틗퓂럝럖뇰캪ꎬ죽퓂ꆢ쇹퓂ꆢ뻅퓂틔벰쪮뛾퓂ꆣ쎿튻벾뗄뫏춬뚼냼몬솽룶웚ꎺ쯰쪧랢짺웚볤ꎨevent quarterꎩ뫍쯰쪧놨룦웚ꎨreporting periodꎩꆣ퓚볆쯣쯰쪧싊쪱ꎬퟱ쫘솽룶풭퓲ꎺ쯰쪧뇘탫퓚쯰쪧랢짺웚볤쓚랢짺늢퓚쯰쪧놨룦웚쓚놨룦폚PCS(ISO쿂쫴뗄튻룶닆닺샭엢늿)ꆣ뫏춬뷡쯣죕캪뫏춬웟룶퓂뫳뗄뗚컥쳬ꆣ웚믵뫏풼뗄뷡쯣볛룱쫇룹뻝웤틔벾뛈ꆰ뻞퓖ꆱ퓚룸뚨뗄쯰쪧놨룦웚볤뛸퓢쫜뗄쯰쪧볆쯣ꎬ퓚샺쪷헻쳥쫐뎡춳볆캪믹뒡뗄룃벾뛈믲쿂룶벾뛈뗄웚싺놣럑ꆣ 뻞퓖웚믵쫇튻훖쳗웚놣횵릤뻟ꆣ놣쿕죋샻폃뻞퓖웚믵살뛔돥럧쿕ꎺ죧맻뻞퓖쯰쪧뷏룟ꎬ쓇쎴뻞퓖웚믵볛횵튲믡쯦ퟅ퓶볓ꎬ듓뛸뿉틔뗖쿻돐놣뿷쯰ꎻ죧맻뻞퓖쯰쪧뇈풤웚뗄쯰쪧짙ꎬ쓇쎴뻞퓖웚믵볛횵튲믡쯦ퟅ붵뗍ꎬ듓뛸떼훂놣쿕죋웚믵춷듧랽쏦폐쯹뿷쯰ꆣ쯤좻헢훖쿠뮥늨뚯쫇튻룶폐킧뗄쳗웚놣횵ꎬ떫쫇떱쯰쪧뫜뗍쪱ꎬ뛔웚믵쯰쪧풤웚뿉쓜믡닺짺탄샭풤웚ꆣ뛸쟒놣쿕릫쮾틑뺭쾰맟폚춨맽퓙놣쿕뫏춬살쏖늹쯻쏇뗄쯰쪧ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ뻞퓖웚믵짏쫐붻틗뺭맽튻쓪ꎬ붻틗솿늢쎻폐죧풤웚뗄뫃ꆣ늢폚1995쓪뾪쪼ꎬ뻞퓖웚믵춣횹붻틗ꆣ1992쓪훁1995쓪뻞퓖놣 24
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 쿕웚믵붻틗솿죧뇭???ꎺ?뇭3-1 뻞퓖놣쿕웚믵붻틗뇭 ꎨ떥캻ꎺ럝뫏풼ꎩ 1992 1993 1994 1995 뻞퓖웚믵 212 9456 4 0 ꎨ쇏살풴ꎺ헅캰훒ꎮ뻞퓖햮좯횮샭싛폫쪵볊ꎮ맺솢훐퇫듳톧ꎮ2000ꎬ6ꎮP25ꎩ 떫쫇ꎬ쯦ퟅ뷰죚웚믵쫐뎡뗄훰늽췪짆ꎬ2007쓪3퓂ꎬ얦풼짌욷붻틗쯹ꎨthe New York Mercantile Exchangeꎩ퓙듎뾪쪼쇋뻞퓖웚믵뫍웚좨뗄붻틗ꆣ헢킩탂뫏춬뗄짨볆캪놣쿕늿쏅쳡릩쇋놾쫐뎡뗄춸쏷뛈뫍쇷뚯탔ꎬ캪뛔뾹뻞퓖럧쿕쳡릩쇋폐킧뗄랽램ꎬ훘탂캪춶쳡릩쇋튻훖탂뗄춶믺믡ꆣ ㌮㈮??뻞퓖웚좨ꎨ捡瑡獴牯灨攠潰瑩潮?ꎩ?뻞퓖웚좨튲쫇폚1992쓪12퓂평CBOT뾪쪼랢탐뗄ꎬퟷ캪뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쇭튻쿮럧쿕럖즢릤뻟ꎬ쫇틔ISO 뗄쯰쪧횸쫽ퟷ캪웚좨붻틗뇪뗄컯ꎬ춨맽뻞퓖웚좨뗄뇜쿕닙ퟷꎬ놣쿕죋뗃틔듯떽컈뚨쯰쪧횮쒿뗄ꆣ쯦ퟅ뻞퓖퇜짺탔짌욷뗄늻뛏룄뷸뫍뒴탂ꎬ1995쓪9퓂CBOT폖췆돶쇋튻훖탂뗄뻞퓖웚좨ꎬ룃웚좨뗄쯰쪧횸쫽평PCSꎨISO쿂쫴뗄튻룶닆닺샭엢늿ꎩ쳡릩ꎬ튲돆ퟷ캪PCS웚좨ꆣPCS횸쫽쫇퓚횸뚨쟸폲뫍맦뚨쪱볤랢짺뻞퓖쫂볾쪱ꎬ뻞퓖놣쿕쯰쪧맀볆횵돽틔1틚쏀풪늢놣쇴튻캻킡쫽뫳뗄횵ꎬ랴펳뛔뻞퓖쯰쪧뗄맀볆ꆣ횸쫽틔뗣ꆰ캪ꆱ떥캻ꎬ쎿뗣횸쫽볛룱캪200쏀풪ꎬ웤횸쫽볛횵볆쯣틔쫽톧쪽뇭쪾죧쿂ꎺ IndexValue=$200×(incurredquarterlyorannualcatastropheiclosses/100,000,000 (3-2) PCS횸쫽뷏ISO횸쫽룄뷸쇋탭뛠ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬPCSퟔ1949쓪틔살튻횱맀볆놻놣쿕뻞퓖닆닺쯰쪧ꎬ캪놣쿕죋쳡릩쇋ퟣ릻뗄쪱볤살좷뚨쯻쏇뗄쯰쪧뺭퇩쫇럱뫍뻞퓖쯰쪧횸쫽쿠맘ꆣ뗚뛾ꎬCBOT뗄PCS웚좨내쯰쪧듳킡ꎬ럖캪Small Cap(쯰쪧퓚뛾쪮틚쏀풪틔쿂)뫍Large Capꎨ쯰쪧퓚뛾쪮틚쏀풪틔짏ꎩꆣ뗚죽ꎬPCS쳡릩쇋뻅훖횸쫽ꎬ냼삨ꎬ1룶쏀맺좫맺뗄횸쫽ꎻ5룶뗘쟸횸쫽ꎬ냼삨쏀맺뗄뚫늿ꆢ뚫놱늿ꆢ뚫쓏늿ꆢ훐컷늿뫍컷늿횸쫽ꎻퟮ뫳뮹폐3룶훝횸쫽ꎬ볓샻뢣쓡퇇훝ꆢ런싞샯듯훝뫍뗃뿋죸쮹훝횸쫽ꆣ ㌮㈮㔠뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻ꎨ?慴慳瑲潰桥睡??ꎩ?뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻ꎬ쫇횸틔쳘뚨뻞퓖쯰쪧캪뮥뮻뫏춬횮뇪뗄ꎬ튻랽붻틗헟ꎨ맦뇜뻞퓖럧쿕뗄튻랽ꎩ틔횧뢶만뚨쿖뷰쇷살뮻좡뢡뚯쿖뷰쇷ꎬ횮쯹틔캪뢡뚯쿖뷰쇷ꎬ쫇틲캪뛔랽쫇럱횧뢶쿖뷰쇷ꎬ뫍뻞퓖쫂볾쫇럱랢짺ꆢ뻞퓖쯰쪧듳킡쿠맘ꆣ떱뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱ꎬ붻틗뛔랽탨튪횧뢶쿖 25
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뷰쇷ꎬ틔늹뎥붻틗헟뛔뻞퓖쫂볾뗄엢뿮ꆣ놣쿕죋뿉틔폫뛔볒횱뷓ퟶ돶헢훖낲업ꎬ튲뿉틔춨맽뷰죚훐뷩믺릹뷸탐ꆣ뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻뗄닎폫죋튻냣쫇풭놣쿕죋ꆢ퓙놣쿕죋뫍ퟔ놣릫쮾뗈믺릹춶헟ꎬ싲싴쮫랽살ퟔ폚춬튻룶맺볒늻춬뗄뗘쟸ꎬ믲헟살ퟔ폚늻춬뗄맺볒ꎬ헢퇹뿉틔쪵쿖웤퓚뗘샭쟸폲짏뗄럖즢폫럧쿕훖샠짏뗄럖즢ꎬ듯떽쿠뛔ퟮ병뗄럧쿕럖즢킧싊ꆣ듋훖샠탍뗄뻞퓖뮥뮻뫍퓙놣쿕낲업랽쪽뇈뷏쿠쯆ꆣ죧춼???ꎺ?만뚨횧뢶 튻랽붻틗헟 붻틗뛔쫖 뢡뚯횧뢶 ꎨ폫춶놣쫂볾뗄랢짺쿠맘ꎩ ?춼???††뻞퓖뮥뮻뗄붻틗뷡릹춼?짏쏦뗄뻞퓖뮥뮻샠탍횻쫇붻틗튻랽뗃쇋럧쿕럖즢뗄킧맻ꎬ늻춬럧쿕놩슶뗄붻틗쮫랽튲뿉틔춬쪱뷸탐뛔뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뮥뮻ꎬ뇈죧쮵ꎬ죕놾뗘헰럧쿕폫쏀맺볓훝뗘헰럧쿕뮥뮻ꆢ죕놾첨럧럧쿕폫런싞샯듯럧럧쿕뮥뮻ꎬ뮹폐죕놾첨럧럧쿕폫램맺럧놩럧쿕뮥뮻뗈ꆣ쯹폐헢킩뮥뮻틲캪웤붻틗쮫랽럧쿕뗄쿠맘탔뫜킡ꎬ쯹틔쪹붻틗룷랽쓜릻듯떽ퟮ듳뗄럧쿕럖즢킧싊ꆣ웤쪵뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻뻍쿠떱폚놣쿕죋횮볤뗄럧쿕뮥훺탔틆ꎬ웤퓋ퟷ죧춼???ꎺ???PA ?A:튻훖럧쿕놩B:쇭튻훖럧쿕놩슶뗄믺릹ꎬ죧슶뗄믺릹ꎬ죧?ꎨ퓙ꎩ놣쿕죋ꎨ퓙ꎩ놣쿕죋 P BPA캪믺릹B랢짺뻞퓖쫂볾쪱ꎬA횧뢶룸B뗄뷰뛮ꆣ PB캪믺릹A랢짺뻞퓖쫂볾쪱ꎬB횧뢶룸A뗄뷰뛮ꆣ 춼3-4뻞퓖뮥뮻퓋ퟷ춼 쿖쪵짺믮훐ꎬ튻룶맘폚뻞퓖뮥뮻뗄뗤탍샽ퟓ캪ꎬ2003쓪Mitsui Sumitomo insurance and Swiss re 낲업쇋100 냙췲쏀풪뗄뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻ꆣ룃뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻뿉럖캪솽늿럖ꎺ죕놾첨럧폫놱듳컷퇳럧럧쿕놩슶뷸탐뮥뮻낲업ꎻ죕놾첨럧폫얷훞럧놩럧쿕놩슶뷸탐뮥뮻ꎬ뷰뛮럖뇰캪50 냙췲쏀풪ꆣ 퓚헢훖붻틗쿂ꎬSwiss붫믡냑쯼뗄튻늿럖놱듳컷퇳럧ꆢ얷훞럧놩럧쿕뮻돉뛔Mitsui뗄 26
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 죕놾럧럧쿕놩슶,뛔Mitsui튲죧듋ꆣ춨맽쿠뮥뛔럧쿕놩슶뗄뮥뮻ꎬ쮫랽뚼쓜쪹ퟔ벺뗄럧쿕ퟩ뫏뛠퇹뮯ꎬ뛸쟒폖샻폃쇋쮫랽뗄튵벼쫵ꎬ듓뛸듯떽쮫펮뗄킧맻ꆣ 쯤좻ꎬ쒿잰쫐뎡짏맘폚뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻뗄닺욷뫜짙ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ쯦ퟅ놾쫐뎡뗄췪짆틔벰뻞퓖쫂볾쯰쪧쫽뻝뗄믽샛벰뚨볛벼쫵뗄쳡룟ꎬ뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻뇘좻돉캪룷듳놣쿕릫쮾뗈믺릹럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕뗄튻훖폐킧뗄랽쪽ꆣ ㌮㌠뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯뗄폅쫆?뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯쫇좫쟲뷰죚뒴탂뗄튻룶훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ쯼뛔놣쿕튵뗄틢틥쫇뻞듳뗄ꎬ쿂쏦럖뇰듓놣쿕죋ꆢ놻놣쿕죋뫍춶헟뗄뷇뛈살럖컶쯼뗄폅쫆ꆣ a. 놣쿕죋뗄쫜틦뗣 뒫춳뗄퓙놣쿕튵컱랶캧폐쿞ꎬ컞램캪풭놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뗄튻쟐럧쿕쳡릩퓙놣쿕럾컱ꎬ뛸샻폃놣쿕럧쿕횤좯뮯늻뷶췘햹쇋뿉놣럧쿕뗄랶캧ꎬ뛸쟒횤좯뮯닺욷뗄뿧쓪뛈뚨볛퓲뿉뇜쏢웤볛룱뗄늨뚯ꎬ쪹놣쿕죋뗄돉놾늻쫜퓙놣쿕볛룱늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣ b. 놻놣쿕죋뗄쫜틦뗣 놻놣쿕죋뗄샻틦뗃떽쇋폐틦놣헏ꎬ쯹돐떣뗄탅폃럧쿕쿔훸붵뗍ꎬ떱랢짺뻞퓖쪱쓜릻톸쯙ꆢퟣ뛮뗘뗃떽엢뎥ꆣ c. 춶헟뗄쫜틦뗣 춶헟쓜릻춨맽뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷뗄춶ꎬ믱뗃뷏룟뗄풤웚쫕틦ꆣ틔뻞퓖햮좯캪샽ꎬ쯼뗄욱쏦샻싊룟폚웳튵햮좯욱쏦샻싊ꎬ늢쟒춨맽뛔맺볊쫐뎡뷼벸쓪뻞퓖햮좯뗄믘놨볆쯣살뾴ꎬ튲룟폚웳튵햮좯ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ쯼튲캪놾쫐뎡짏뗄춶헟쳡릩쇋탂뗄춶닺욷ꎬ쪹뗃춶헟폐룼뛠뗄톡퓱ꎻ춨맽춶놣뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷뷸탐춶ퟩ뫏ꎬ쪹쾵춳럧쿕뗄복짙돉캪뿉쓜ꎬ뛸듓뒫춳뗄춶샭싛살뾴ꎬ횤좯쫐뎡뗄쾵춳럧쿕쫇늻쓜춨맽춶ퟩ뫏살복짙뗄ꆣ 킡뷡?듓룃늿럖컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ춨맽뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯랽쪽틆뻞퓖럧쿕뻟폐뒫춳퓙놣쿕쯹늻쓜뇈쓢뗄폅쫆ꎬ튻랽쏦펭뫏쇋놣쿕죋ꆢ놻놣쿕죋뫍춶죋뗄탄샭풤웚ꎬ뿉돖탸탔뷏뫃ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦폅뮯쇋뷰럖엤ꎬ쓜뷏듳쿞뛈뗄럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ떫늢늻틢캶ퟅ놣쿕릫쮾붫늻믡퓙샻폃퓙놣쿕랽쪽살틆뻞퓖럧쿕ꆣ횻폐춬쪱랢믓솽헟뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ룹뻝쪵볊벰쪱뮻ꎬ닅쓜돤럖럖즢뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕ꆣ 27
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ??뻞퓖햮좯벰웤뚨볛퇐뺿?놾헂붫뛔뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷훐펦폃ퟮ캪맣랺뗄뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐짮죫뗄퇐뺿ꎬ캪놾싛컄뗄뫋탄ꆣ쫗쿈뷩짜뻞퓖햮좯뗄뿲볜ꎬ좻뫳룹뻝뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듳킡짨볆쇋컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뫍쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ늢퓋폃쿠맘랽램캪횮뷸탐뚨볛ꆣ?㐮ㄠ뻞퓖햮좯뿲볜?뻞퓖햮좯쫴폚룟쫕틦햮컱릤뻟ꎬ쫇튻훖쓜릻냑쳘뚨뗄뻞퓖럧쿕듓랢탐헟틆룸춶헟뗄럧쿕솬뷡횤좯ꆣ튻냣쫇놣쿕릫쮾/퓙놣쿕릫쮾캪쇋쿭쫜쮰쫕폅믝믲맦뇜맜훆퓚샫낶뗘쟸돉솢튻볒쳘쫢쒿뗄믺릹ꎨSPVꎩꎬ평SPV퓚쫐뎡짏랢탐뻞퓖햮좯ꆣ 뻞퓖햮좯뗄ퟩ돉튪쯘냼몬폐ꎺ닎폫헟벰뻞퓖햮좯뗄뒥랢쫂볾ꎨTrigger eventꎩꎬ웤훐뻞퓖햮좯붻틗맽돌훐훷튪뗄닎폫헟폐ꎺ냧퇝럖놣죋뗄퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎨ튲폐놣쿕죋뗄쟩탎ꎩꆢ랢탐뻞퓖햮좯뗄쳘쫢쒿뗄믺릹ꎨSPVꎩꆢ탅췐튵헟폫춶죋뗈붻틗떱쫂죋ꆣ ?뛌웚춶 ?ꎨ탅췐헋뮧ꎩ ?춶쫕틦??퓙놣럑놾뷰 놣쿕릫쮾 쳘쫢쒿뗄 춶헟 ?/퓙놣쿕릫쮾 믺릹샻쾢 ?ꎨSPVꎩ 놣쿕엢뿮 ?떽웚뿉쓜횧뢶놾뷰 춼???ꎺ뻞퓖햮좯퓋ퟷ춼?죧춼4-1ꎬ퓚튻룶뗤탍뗄뻞퓖햮좯붻틗훐ꎬSPV뫍놣쿕릫쮾/퓙놣쿕릫쮾잩뚩퓙놣쿕뫏춬틔쳡릩퓙놣쿕놣헏ꎬ춬쪱쿲춶헟랢탐뻞퓖햮좯ꎬSPV캪쇋놣헏춶헟뗄샻틦ꎬ춨뎣믡붫쿲춶헟쫕좡뗄뷰듦럅폚탅췐헋뮧훐ꎬ룃헋뮧뷰춶폚룟쇷뚯탔벰룟컈뚨탔뗄뛌웚춶릤뻟ꎬ죧헾뢮햮좯믲AAA벶릫쮾햮좯ꎬ춶쯹뗃붫퓚뻞퓖쫂맊랢짺믲쯰쪧듯떽튻뚨럹뛈쪱폃폚쿲풭ꎨ퓙ꎩ놣쿕죋샭엢ꎬ랴횮퓲폃폚뎥뢶놾쫐뎡춶헟뗄춶믘놨ꆣ 탨튪잿뗷뗄쫇ꎬSPV쫇퓙놣쿕릫쮾/놣쿕릫쮾ꎨ랢웰죋ꎩ캪쇋쪵쿖냑뻞퓖럧쿕틆떽놾쫐뎡짏뛸짨솢뗄튻룶붻틗쪵쳥ꎬ듋붻틗쪵쳥튻냣쫇튻룶돖폐훮죧뾪싼좺떺뫍냙쒽듳헢퇹뗄샫낶뷰죚쫐뎡놣쿕뺭펪탭뿉횤뗄뻟폐쳘쫢쒿뗄뗄퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎨ춨뎣쫇폐쿞퓰죎릫쮾ꎩꎬ헢퇹ퟶ뗄 28
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 쒿뗄퓚폚맦뇜램맦맜훆믲쿭쫜샫낶뷰죚쫐뎡뛔뺭펪훷쳥뗄뗍놾뷰튪쟳벰쮰쫕짏뗄폅믝ꆣSPV뮹폐튻룶횵뗃돆뗀뗄쳘뗣쫇뛔웆닺럧쿕뗄룴샫ퟷ폃ꎬ훷튪냼삨ꎺ랢웰죋횻쫇ퟷ캪횤좯뮯붻틗뗄ퟩ횯헟뛸럇횱뷓닎폫붻틗ꎻSPV퓚ퟩ횯뫍믡볆뫋쯣짏폫랢웰죋놣돖뛀솢ꎻSPV횻쿞폚듓쫂폫횤좯뮯폐맘뗄튵컱뗈쳘뗣ꆣ 쒿잰쫐뎡짏쯹랢탐뗄뻞퓖햮좯뗄뒥랢쳵볾훷튪폐틔쿂컥훖샠탍ꎬ웤컥훖뒥랢믺훆뗄붻틗뷰뛮벰쫽솿죧뇭4-1ꎺ a. 쯰쪧엢뿮탍ꎨindemnity triggersꎩ 쯰쪧엢뿮탍뒥랢믺훆틔랢웰죋뗄쳘뚨뻞퓖쿕훖엢뎥뷰뛮캪틀뻝ꎬ떱놣쿕쯰쪧뎬맽쫂쿈짨뚨뗄뷰뛮쪱ꎬ퓲춶헟놾뷰믲샻쾢뾪쪼놩슶폚럧쿕훐ꆣ 듓샭싛짏붲ꎬ폫쯷엢볇슼쿠솪쾵뗄뒥랢믺훆쓜릻ퟮ병뗘쪵쿖뛔놣쿕죋뗄좫쏦늹뎥ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ튻랽쏦평폚헢훖뒥랢믺훆뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚햮좯랢웰죋(놣쿕죋믲퓙놣쿕죋)뛔뻞퓖쫂볾쯷엢낸볾벰뷰뛮뗄짪놨ꎬ헢붫늻뿉뇜쏢뗘듸폐뗀뗂캣쿕ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ평폚놾쫐뎡뗄춶헟뛔뢴퓓뗄놣쿕뺫쯣뫍샭엢벼쫵횪횮짵짙ꎬ춬쪱튲늻쇋뷢놣쿕샭엢뗄뫏샭탔뫍헦쪵탔ꎬ맊죧맻닉좡헢훖뒥랢믺훆ꎬ퓲믡펰쿬춶헟뗄탨쟳ꆣ틲듋뺡맜룃훖뒥랢믺훆ꎬ쓜릻ퟮ좫쏦뗘쪵쿖뛔놣쿕죋뗄늹뎥릦쓜ꎬ떫쫇듓쫐뎡펪쿺뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ볲떥폫쯷엢볇슼쿠솪쾵뗄뒥랢믺훆늻믡돉캪뻞퓖햮좯뒥랢믺훆캴살랢햹뗄쟷쫆ꆣ듓뇭4-1훐뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ쯦ퟅ놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꎬ쯰쪧엢뿮탍뒥랢믺훆뗄뻞퓖햮좯훰붥쿲웤쯼샠탍뒥랢믺훆뇤ꆣ b. 퓖몦닎쫽탍ꎨparametric triggersꎩ 퓖몦닎쫽탍뒥랢믺훆쫇틔쳘뚨뻞퓖쫂볾뗄쪵볊닢솿횵캪틀뻝ꎬ쫇튻훖컯샭횸뇪쯰쪧뒥랢믺훆ꆣ틔뗘헰뻞퓖캪샽ꎬ죧틔뗘헰횮맦쒣ꆢ캻훃ꆢ헰풴짮뛈뗈횸뇪볓좨볆쯣뛸뗃횮뗘헰횸뇪횵뗈ꎻ퓙틔럧뻞퓖캪샽ꎬ뿉틔틔룷뗘럧쯙볓좨볆쯣쯹뗃횮럧횸뇪횵캪뒥랢쳵볾횮틀뻝ꆣ헢훖샠탍뗄뒥랢믺훆쯤좻듦퓚엢뢶뷰뛮폫쪵볊쯰쪧뷰뛮늢늻튻훂뗄믹닮럧쿕ꎬ떫쫇평폚웤쎻폐횱뷓틔놻놣쿕죋쯰쪧캪틀뻝ꎬ쯹틔늻듦퓚(퓙)놣쿕죋뗄죎뫎뗀뗂캣쿕ꎬ뛸쟒평폚퓖몦닎쫽탍뷏웤쯰쪧엢뿮탍룼캪춸쏷벰뿍맛ꎬ뷏쫜춶죋쯹쾲낮ꆣ c. 탐튵쯰쪧횸쫽탍ꎨindustry-loss indexꎩ 탐튵쯰쪧횸쫽쫇뛔헻룶놣쿕튵퓚뻞퓖쫂볾훐뗄쯰쪧맀볆ꆣ떱룃횸쫽뎬맽풤뚨쮮욽ꎬ춶헟붫쯰쪧햮좯놾뷰뫍/믲샻쾢ꆣ헢훖횸쫽뿉틔평튵놣쿕톯믺릹뇠벭늢릫늼ꎬ웤훐ퟮ폐펰쿬솦뗄쫇쏀맺닆닺샭엢럾컱릫쮾(Property Claim Serviceꎬ볲돆PCS)횸쫽ꆣ룃횸쫽쫇틔퓚룸뚨뗘쟸뫍쳘뚨럧쿕웚볤돶쿖뗄뻞퓖쫂볾쯹퓬돉뗄쯰쪧뗄맀볆횵ퟷ캪웤쓢뚨횸쫽뗄믹뒡ꆣ룃횸쫽쓜릻룼캪맣랺뗘랴펳뻞퓖쫂볾뛔놣쿕튵뗄펰쿬ꎬ뿉틔뇜쏢랢웰죋뗄뗀뗂캣쿕ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ닉좡헢훖 29
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뒥랢믺훆뗄뻞퓖햮좯붫늻뿉뇜쏢뗘듦퓚ퟅ믹닮럧쿕ꎬ벴횸쫽뗄뇤뚯늢늻쓜ힼ좷뗄랴펳룶뇰?퓙?놣쿕죋뻞퓖쫂볾샭엢뷰뛮뗄쟩뿶ꎬ웤닮틬돌뛈좡뻶폚뻞퓖햮좯랢웰죋뗄럧쿕ퟩ뫏폫쯹틀뻝횸쫽뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ d. 쒣탍쯰쪧탍ꎨmodeled loss) 룃뒥랢믺훆쫇틔쒣탍릫쮾짨뚨뗄뻞퓖럧쿕ퟩ뫏쇏뿢캪믹뒡ꎬ냑쪵볊뻞퓖쫂볾뗄닎쫽ꎬ뷸탐풭횸뚨횮돌쪽럖컶볆쯣쯹뗃횮쯰쪧횵ퟷ캪뻞퓖햮좯랢탐죋횧뢶놾뷰뫍/믲샻쾢폫뷰뛮뛠짙뗄틀뻝ꆣ룃뒥랢믺훆뛔ꎨ퓙ꎩ놣쿕죋살쮵ꎬ춬퇹쎻폐뗀뗂캣쿕ꎬ떫춶헟뛔쒣탍뗄ힼ좷탔듦퓚튻뚨뗄훊틉ꆣ e. ퟩ뫏쪽뒥랢믺훆ꎨhybrid triggersꎩ 2006쓪ꎬ돶쿖쇋튻훖탂뗄뒥랢믺훆——ퟩ뫏쪽뒥랢믺훆ꎬ놾훊짏붲ꎬ룃훖뒥랢믺훆횻쫇붫잰쏦쮵뗄솽쿮믲솽쿮틔짏뒥랢믺훆ퟩ뫏퓚튻웰ꆣ듓탎쪽짏뾴ꎬ뿉럖캪솽듳샠ꎺ뗚튻샠캪퓚춬튻붻틗훐헫뛔늻춬샠탍뗄뻞퓖럧쿕쪹폃늻춬뗄뒥랢믺훆ꎬ헢훖샠탍뗄뒥랢믺훆쫗듎돶쿖폚죰쪿퓙놣쿕릫쮾랢탐뗄Successor쿮쒿훐ꎬ룃쿮쒿훐냼몬쏀맺럧뫍죕놾뗘헰솽샠뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ늢헫뛔헢솽샠럧쿕럖뇰짨훃쇋PCS뒥랢믺훆ꎨ탐튵쯰쪧횸쫽ꎩ뫍퓖몦닎쫽뒥랢믺훆ꎻ뗚뛾샠쫇헫뛔춬튻뻞퓖럧쿕틽죫솽훖틔짏뗄뒥랢믺훆ꎬ뛸쟒탨튪솽룶믺훆뻹듯떽뒥랢튪쟳ꎬ닅쓜웴뚯햮좯ꎬ듋훖랽쪽쫗쿈폃폚2006쓪ACE Ltd.ꎨ닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ꎩ랢웰뗄헫뛔쏀맺럧뗄뻞퓖햮좯ꆣퟜ뛸퇔횮ꎬퟩ뫏쪽뒥랢믺훆뿉틔복짙랢웰죋뗄믹닮럧쿕ꆣ 뇭???ꋙ††††††††?룷훖뒥랢믺훆뗄붻틗뷰뛮벰쫽솿?떥캻냙췲쏀풪??쓪뛈 쯰쪧엢뎥탍 룶퓖몦닎쫽탍 룶탐튵쯰쪧탍 룶쒣탍쯰쪧탍 룶ퟩ뫏탍 룶쫽 쫽 쫽 쫽 쫽 ㄹ㤷?㐳ㄮ????㤰⸰???ㄱ㈮????〮????????ㄹ???㠴㘮????〮????〮????〮????????ㄹ㤹?㘰㈮????〮????〮????㈸㈮????????㈰〰?㔰㜮????㌰㌮????ㄵ〮????ㄷ㤮????????㈰〱?ㄵ〮????㈷〮????㈶㔮????㈸ㄮ????????㈰〲?㌵㔮????㘳ㄮ????㈰〮????㌳⸰???????㈰〳?㈶〮????ㄱㄹ⸸???㌵〮????〮????????㈰〴?㈲㜮????㈶㜮????㔴㜮????〮????????㈰〵?㠵㤮????㐹ㄮ????〮????㘴〮????????㈰〶?ㄷ㈮????ㄲ㘰⸰???ㄴ㈲⸰???ㄵ㜮????ㄶ㠱⸷???㈰〷??ꎬ㈹㠮????ㄬ㈴㠮????ㄬ㜵㔮????㈳㔮????ㄬ㐵㠮????ퟜ볆 6, 39 5, 32 4, 21 1, 13 3, 11 ꋙ The Catastrophe Bond Market at Year-End 2007: The Market Goes Mainstreamꎮ2008 Guy Carpenter & Company LLCꎮP23 30
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 㐮㈠뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛?쿂쏦룹뻝뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듳킡럖뇰짨볆돶컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뫍쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ늢춨맽틽죫Briys E.(1997)훐뗄뻞퓖쫂볾쯰쪧뛮뗚튻듎듯떽뒥랢쮮욽뗄쪱볤헢튻쯦믺뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱뷡뫏놣쿕톧훐뗄뺫쯣뚨볛램살캪헢컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐뚨볛ꆣ뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퓲붫햮좯샻쾢뗄ퟮ뫳횧뢶쪱뿌짨캪쯦믺뇤솿ꎬ퓙샻폃놣쿕뺫쯣램캪횮뚨볛ꆣ놣쿕뺫쯣뚨볛램쪵훊쫇튻훖뻹뫢램ꎬ좻뛸쯼룼닠훘폚쟳웚췻쯷엢뛮ꆣ?㐮㈮??컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯벰웤뚨볛쒣탍?퓚뫏춬웚쿞쓚ꎬ죧맻뒥랢쫂볾쎻폐랢짺ꎬ춶헟붫믱뗃놾뷰뫍풼뚨샻쾢ꎬ틔쏖늹웤뛔뷰뗄쪹폃뫍퓚듋웚볤쯹돐떣뗄럧쿕ꎻ죧맻뒥랢쫂볾랢짺쇋ꎬ쓇쎴춶헟붫믡퓢쫜샻쾢ꆢ놾뷰믲헟솽헟뗄쯰쪧ꆣ퓚뻞퓖햮좯웚쿞쓚ꎬ뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱ꎬ틀뻝춶헟돐떣럧쿕뗄듳킡ꎨ럧쿕럖닣ꎩ뿉짨볆틔쿂컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ죧뇭???쯹쪾ꆣ?뇭???††††룹뻝놾뷰뫍샻쾢늻춬뎥뮹쟩뿶뮮럖뗄컥훖훷튪뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯샠탍?뻞퓖햮좯샠탍?뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱놾뷰뎥뮹쟩뿶?뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱샻쾢뎥뮹쟩뿶?햮좯??퇓웚뎥뮹놾뷰?퇓웚뎥뮹샻쾢?햮좯??떽웚뎥뮹놾뷰?늻뎥뮹샻쾢?햮좯??퇓웚뎥뮹놾뷰?늻뎥뮹샻쾢?햮좯??뎥뮹늿럖놾뷰?늻뎥뮹샻쾢?햮좯??좫늿놾뷰뚼늻뎥뮹?늻뎥뮹샻쾢?퓚뇭???훐뗄컥훖햮좯훐ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듓짏훁쿂훰붥볓듳ꎬ룹뻝럧쿕늹뎥풭퓲횪ꎬ틀짏쫶럧쿕늻춬럖닣랢탐뗄뻞퓖햮좯춶헟튪쟳뗄쫕틦훰붥퓶볓ꆣ뻞퓖햮좯돉릦랢탐뗄맘볼쫇캪웤뷸탐뫏샭뚨볛ꎬ쿂쏦춨맽틽죫뻞퓖쫂볾쯰쪧뛮쫗듎듯떽뒥랢쮮욽뗄쪱볤헢튻쯦믺뇤솿ꎬ퓙뷡뫏뺫쯣랽램캪헢컥훖뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐쇋뚨볛ꆣ??a.잰쳡쳵볾?(1) 놾뷰ꎺF?(2)?샻쾢싊ꎺr0=LIBOR+aꎬ웤훐a캪튻룶만뚨럧쿕샻닮ꎬ쟒웚쒩횧뢶샻쾢ꆣLIBOR캪횧뢶샻쾢떱쪱뗄뢡뚯샻싊ꎬ탨튪힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯샻쾢싊췹췹뇈뻟폐쿠춬탅폃움벶뗄릫쮾 31
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 햮뫍닺뗖톺탍닺욷튪룟ꆣ?(3) 뒥랢쳵볾ꎺ뻞퓖햮좯웚쿞쓚ꎬ뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺늢쟒뻞퓖쫂볾틽웰뗄쯰쪧뛮뛈싺ퟣ뫏춬훐뗄풼뚨ꆣ?(4)?뻞퓖햮좯웚쿞ꎺ?쓪ꆣ?(5) 컞럧쿕헛쿖샻싊ꎺr?b?뚨볛쒣탍?짨N(t)캪t쓪쓚랢짺뻞퓖쫂볾뗄듎쫽ꎬ쟒N(t)럾듓닎쫽캪l뗄늴쯉럖늼ꎬ폃쯦믺뇤솿T살뇭쪾듓?쪱웰ꎬ떽뗚튻듎돶쿖뫏춬훐풼뚨뗄뻞퓖쫂볾뗄쪱볤뎤뛈ꆣ폚쫇ꎬ쯦믺뇤솿T뗄럖늼몯쫽FT(t)ꎺ?††††††FT(t)=P(T≤t)=P(N(t)≥1)=1−exp(−lt)†††††††††?)?폚쫇ꎬT럾듓닎쫽캪l뗄횸쫽럖늼ꎬT뗄쏜뛈몯쫽캪ꎺ?†††fT(t)=lexp(−lt)††††††††††††††††()?쿂쏦붫뛔뇭4-2훐뗄컥훖뻞퓖햮좯쟩탎튻튻뷸탐뚨볛ꎺ?ꎨ1ꎩ햮좯1ꎺ뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ놾뷰뫍샻쾢붫퇓웚횧뢶ꆣ?평폚늻맜쫇럱랢짺뻞퓖쫂볾ꎬ놾뷰뫍샻쾢뚼붫횧뢶폚춶헟ꎬ듦퓚뗄쟸뇰쫇횧뢶쪱볤뗄늻춬ꎬ쯹틔SPV뛔춶헟뗄횧뢶몯쫽캪ꎺ?b=r0TFe?††?†??†††††††?†††††()?듋쪱ꎬ쳹쿖몯쫽vT붫믡틲뻞퓖랢짺폫럱뛸랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ죧쿂ꎺ?−reT>1vT=−††††††††††††††††?()?rtffeT≤1웤훐ꎬt캪퇓웚횧뢶놾쾢웚쿞ꎬr캪퇓웚웚쿞t쓚뗄샻싊ꆣ?fff쇮ZT=bTvT뇭쪾햮좯캴살횧뢶쿖뷰쇷뗄쿖횵ꎬ룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ퓲뻞퓖햮좯뗄볛룱캪ꎺ?∞P=E[ZT]=E[bTvT]=∫bTvTfT(t)dt?†††††††††††††??0∞1∞=bT∫vTfT(t)dt=bT[vT≤1fT(t)dt+vT1fT(t)dt]0∫>∫†????†††††††()?01냑쪽()ꆢ()ꆢ()듺죫쪽( 32
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 룃뻞퓖햮좯쒣탍횧뢶몯쫽캪ꎺ?Fer0T>1bT=††††††††††††††††? ()?FT≤1쳹쿖틲ퟓvT캪ꎺ?v=rTe−†††††††††††††††††? ()?춬퇹ꎬ룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ?∞P=E[ZT]=E[bTvT]=∫bTvTfT(t)dt†?01∞=vT[bT≤1∫fT(t)dt+bT>1∫fT(t)dt]††?††??†?†?†()?01냑쪽()ꆢ()ꆢ()듺죫쪽( ()?FT≤1쳹쿖몯쫽vT폐ꎺ??r−eT>1vT=−?††††††††††††††? ()?rtffeT≤1††††††††††††††?춬퇹ꎬ룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ?∞P=E[ZT]=E[bTvT]=∫bTvTfT(t)dt?01∞=bT≤1vT≤1∫fT(t)dt+bT>1vT>1∫fT(t)dt??††††††††?()?01냑쪽()ꆢ( ꎨ4ꎩ햮좯4ꎺ뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬSPV횧뢶춶헟늿럖놾뷰ꎬ샻쾢늻횧뢶ꆣ? 33
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 볙짨떱뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬSPV횧뢶춶헟뗄놾뷰뇈샽캪q(q<1)?퓲룃뻞퓖햮좯횧뢶쒣탍캪ꎺ?Fer0T>1bT=††††††††††††††††?()?qFT≤1쳹쿖틲ퟓvT캪ꎺ?v=−rTe††††††††††††††††††()?춬퇹ꎬ룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ?∞P=E[ZT]=E[bTvT]=∫bTvTfT(t)dt?01∞=vT[bT≤1∫fT(t)dt+bT>1∫fT(t)dt]††††††††††??()?01냑쪽()ꆢ()ꆢ()듺죫쪽()ꎬ퓲룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄볛룱캪ꎺ?†††1∞P=−r−−e[qF∫llt+r0∫lltedtFeedt]??01=qFe−r−qFe−2r+Fer0−l−r††††††††††††?()?ꎨ5ꎩ햮좯?ꎺ뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ놾뷰뫍샻쾢뚼늻횧뢶ꆣ?룃뻞퓖햮좯쒣탍횧뢶몯쫽캪ꎺ?††Fer0T>1bT=†††††††††††††††?()?0T≤1쳹쿖틲ퟓvT캪ꎺ?vrT=e−††††††††††††††††††()?춬퇹ꎬ룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ?∞P=E[ZT]=E[bTvT]=∫bTvTfT(t)dt††?01∞=vT[bT≤1∫fT(t)dt+bT>1∫fT(t)dt]††††††††?††? ()?01냑쪽()ꆢ()ꆢ()듺죫쪽()ꎬ퓲룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄볛룱캪ꎺ †††1∞P=−r−ltr−t[0∫l0T+ll]=Fer0−l−reedtvFe∫edt†††††††††††()?01㐮㈮?쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯벰웤뚨볛쒣탍?퓚뻞퓖햮좯웚쿞쓚ꎬ뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱ꎬ틀뻝춶헟돐떣럧쿕뗄듳킡ꎬ짨볆돶틔쿂쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ죧뇭???쯹쪾ꆣ?? 34
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뇭??㌠†††???룹뻝놾뷰뫍샻쾢늻춬뎥뮹쟩뿶뮮럖뗄쯄훖훷튪뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯샠탍?뻞퓖햮좯샠탍?뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱놾뷰뎥뮹쟩뿶?뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺쪱샻쾢뎥뮹쟩뿶?햮좯??떽웚뎥뮹놾뷰?뻞퓖랢짺쪱춣횹횧뢶샻쾢?햮좯??퇓웚뎥뮹놾뷰?뻞퓖랢짺쪱춣횹횧뢶샻쾢?햮좯??뎥뮹늿럖놾뷰?뻞퓖랢짺쪱춣횹횧뢶샻쾢?햮좯??좫늿놾뷰뚼늻뎥뮹?뻞퓖랢짺쪱춣횹횧뢶샻쾢?퓚뇭4-3훐뗄쯄훖햮좯훐ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듓짏훁쿂훰붥볓듳ꎬ룹뻝럧쿕늹뎥풭퓲횪ꎬ틀짏쫶럧쿕늻춬럖닣랢탐뗄뻞퓖햮좯춶헟튪쟳뗄쫕틦훰붥퓶볓ꆣ뻞퓖햮좯돉릦랢탐뗄맘볼쫇캪웤뷸탐뫏샭뚨볛ꎬ쿂쏦춨맽틽죫쯦믺뇤솿i{i∈(1,2,3,...,2n)}ퟷ캪뻞퓖햮좯샻쾢ퟮ뫳횧뢶쪱뿌ꎬ늢뷡뫏놣쿕뺫쯣램캪횮뚨볛ꆣ a. 잰쳡쳵볾 (1) 놾뷰ꎺC (2) 샻쾢싊ꎺR{i∈(1,2,3,...,2n)}ꎬ뇭쪾i쪱뿌뗄샻쾢싊ꎬ늢쟒냫쓪횧뢶튻듎샻쾢ꆣ탨튪힢i틢뗄쫇ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯샻쾢싊췹췹뇈뻟폐쿠춬탅폃움벶뗄릫쮾햮뫍닺뗖톺탍닺욷튪룟ꆣ (3) 햮좯샻쾢뗄횧뢶죕캪ꎺT, {i∈(1,2,3,...,2n)}ꎬTi2n캪떽웚죕ꆣ (4) 뒥랢쳵볾ꎺ뫏춬웚쿞쓚ꎬ뻞퓖쫂볾랢짺늢쟒뻞퓖쫂볾틽웰뗄쯰쪧뛮뛈싺ퟣ뫏춬훐뗄풼뚨ꆣ (5) 뻞퓖햮좯웚쿞ꎺn쓪 (6) 컞럧쿕샻싊ꎺr {i∈(1,2,3,...,2n)}ꎬ뇭쪾i횧뢶쪱뿌뗄컞럧쿕샻싊ꆣ ib. 뚨볛쒣탍 죧춬뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ볙짨뻞퓖랢짺쪱볤T럾듓닎쫽캪l뗄횸쫽럖늼ꎬ퓲T뗄럖늼뗄몯쫽1캪ꎺFT(t)=P(T≤t)=P(N(t)≥1)=1−exp(−lt)ꎻ냫쓪뢶쾢튻듎ꎬ쎿듎횧뢶샻쾢캪RiFe2−FꎻQ(T0,T){i∈(1,2,3,...,2n)}ꎬ뇭쪾퓚쪱볤(T0,T)쓚듯떽뒥랢쳵볾뗄룅싊ꎬiiQ(T0,T){i∈(1,2,3,...,2n)},뇭쪾퓚쪱볤(T0,T)쓚캴떽듯뒥랢쳵볾뗄룅싊ꎬ폐ꎺ iiTQi(T0,T)=∫f(t)dt=F(T)−FT(T0)=[1−exp(−lT)]−[1−exp(−lTiTTTii0)]0 ꎨꎩ =exp(−lT0)−exp(−lT)=e−lT0−e−lTii QTT)=1−A(TT=+−lT−−lT(i0,0ee0 ,)1 ꎨꎩ ii퓲뻞퓖햮좯샻쾢횧뢶뗄웚췻쿖횵G캪ꎺ 35
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 2ni1−rRGii=∑e2[E(Ce2−C)1{t>T}] ii=12ni1∑−rRi=e2[(Cei2−C)Q(T0,T)] ii=12n11−rRii=∑e2Ce−C+e−lT−e−lTi (2)(10) () i=1 웤훐1{·}캪쪾탔몯쫽ꎬ뇭쪾1{t>T}=1ꎬ럱퓲캪0ꆣ i(1)햮좯6ꎺ뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춣횹횧뢶샻쾢ꎬ떽웚뎥뮹놾뷰ꆣ 평폚늻맜쫇럱랢짺뻞퓖ꎬ놾뷰떽웚뚼뎥뮹ꎬ틲듋뻞퓖햮좯놾뷰뗄횧뢶쿖횵웚췻H1캪ꎺ H=Ce−nrn1 () 퓲룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ늢쟒평ꎨꎩꆢꎨꎩ횪룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ 2n11−rRiiP=G+H=∑e2Ce−C1+e−lT−e−lT1(2)(0)+Ce−nrin () i=1(2)햮좯7ꎺ뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춣횹횧뢶샻쾢ꎬ퇓웚뎥뮹놾뷰ꎬt캪퇓웚횧뢶놾쾢웚쿞ꎬr캪ff퇓웚웚쿞t뗄헛쿖샻싊ꆣ f평쳢틢횪ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯놾뷰뗄횧뢶쿖횵웚췻H2캪ꎺ H=Ce−nrQ−trn2(T0,Tn)+CeffQ(T0,t)] f=Ce−nrn(1+e−lTn−e−lT0+Ce−trffe−lT−−ltef)(0) () 퓲룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ늢쟒평ꎨꎩꆢꎨꎩ횪룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ 2n11−rRiiP=G+H=∑e2Ce−C+e−lT−e−lT(2)(1i02)i=1 () +Ce−nrn+e−lTn−e−lT(10)+Ce−trffe−lT−−lt(0ef)(3)햮좯8ꎺ뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춣횹횧뢶샻쾢ꎬ떽웚뎥뮹늿럖놾뷰qC(q<1)ꆣ 뻞퓖햮좯놾뷰뗄횧뢶쿖횵웚췻H3캪ꎺ H=Ce−nrnQTTqCe−nrn3(0,n)+Q(T0,t)f () =Ce−nrn(1+−lTn−−lT0)+qCe−nrn−lT−ltee(e0−ef)퓲룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ늢쟒평ꎨꎩꆢꎨꎩ횪룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ 36
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 2n11−rRiiP=G+H=∑e2Ce−C+e−lT−e−lT(2)(1i03) i=1 () +Ce−nrn+e−lTn−e−lT0+qCe−nr(1)nT(0te−l−−lef) (4)햮좯9ꎺ뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춣횹횧뢶샻쾢,춬쪱늻횧뢶놾뷰ꆣ 뻞퓖햮좯놾뷰뗄횧뢶쿖횵웚췻H4캪ꎺ?H=Ce−nrnQT,T)=Ce−nrn+−lTnn(1−−lT(040ee) ⠴⸳???퓲룹뻝뺫쯣뚨볛풭퓲ꎬ늢쟒평ꎨ㐮㈶ꎩꆢꎨ㐮㌳ꎩ횪룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ?2n11−rRiiP=G+H=∑e2(Ce2−C)(1+e−lT−e−lT0+Ce−nr+e−lT−e−lTinn4)(10) ⠴⸳???i=1㐮㈮?뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛뗄펦폃ꆪꆪ啓䅁뻞퓖햮좯?USAA쫇캻폚쪥낲뚫쓡냂쫐(쏀맺뗂뿋죸쮹훝)뗄튻볒뺭펪룶죋튵컱뗄놣쿕릫쮾,쫇쏀맺뗚웟듳웻뎵뫍뗚쇹듳볒춥닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ꆣ USAA듓1997쓪뾪쪼랢탐뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ훷튪돐놣뗄럧쿕쫇쏀맺뚫낶럧ꆣ 1997쓪6퓂ꎬUSAA춨맽뾪싼좺떺뗄Residential Re랢탐쇋틚쏀풪뗄튻쓪웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ냫쓪뢶쾢튻듎ꎬ쎿헅햮좯랢탐쏦뛮캪30췲쏀풪ꎬ뒥랢쫂볾평룃쓪6퓂뾪쪼뗄튻쓪쓚쏀맺몣췥뫍뚫몣낶뗄USAA뗄놻놣쿕닆닺쯰쪧살쿞뚨ꎬ떱놻놣쿕닆닺쯰쪧뎬맽10틚쏀풪쪱ꎬ춶죋믡폐샻쾢ꆢ놾뷰믲솽헟뗄쯰쪧ꆣ룹뻝춶헟돐떣럧쿕뗄듳킡ꎬ붫룃뻞퓖햮좯럖솽떵ꎺ뗚튻떵뗄햮좯횻폐샻쾢놩슶폚럧럧쿕횮훐ꆣ죧맻퓚럧쿕웚볤쎻폐뒥랢쫂볾랢짺,쓇쎴놾뷰붫퓚튻쓪웚싺뫳좫뛮략뮹ꎻ죧맻랢짺ꎬ퓲춶헟틀좻쓜릻놣횤쓃믘놾뷰ꎬ떫쫇튪뗈떽쪮쓪뫳닅쓜쓃믘ꎬ룃떵햮좯뗄샻쾢싊캪LIBOR +%ꎻ뗚뛾떵뗄햮좯,웤놾뷰뫍쾢욱뻹놩슶폚럧쿕횮훐ꎬ룃떵햮좯뗄샻쾢싊캪LIBOR+%ꆣ뫏춬쳵뿮훐풼뚨듓10틚쏀풪뗄뻞퓖럧쿕닆닺쯰쪧뾪쪼,럧쿕평뻞퓖햮좯샻쾢믲놾뷰살뗖쿻,떽쇋15틚쏀풪뗄쯰쪧쪱,뗚튻떵뗄쾢욱뫍뗚뛾떵뗄쾢욱뫍놾뷰붫좫늿폃췪ꋙꆣ 컒쏇볙뚨헢솽떵뻞퓖햮좯짐캴랢탐ꎬ햾퓚랢탐죋뗄뷇뛈샻폃뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛쒣탍살캪쯼쏇뷸탐뚨볛ꎬ헢샯횻뾼싇쯰쪧뎬맽15틚쏀풪쪱뗄쟩뿶ꆣ 뗚튻떵뻞퓖햮좯ꎺ샻폃훐뗄햮좯3뗄뚨볛쒣탍캪횮뚨볛ꎬ늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ헢샯냫쓪뢶쾢튻듎ꎬ틲듋ꎬ룃뻞퓖햮좯캴살횧뢶쿖뷰쇷뗄쿖횵쒣탍ZT=bTvT캪ꎺ ꋙ헅횾쏷ꎮ놣쿕릫쮾뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕횤좯뮯돵첽[J]ꎮ뚫놱닆뺭듳톧톧톧놨ꎮ2006ꎬ5ꎮP60-63. 37
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 111L1−rL2Fe2F−r(−)e2+Fe2eT>1111bv=L−r−1≥T>TT1(Fe2Ftr ꎨꎩ −)e2+Feff2Fe−tr1ff≥T>02퓲룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄볛룱캪ꎺ ∞P=E[ZT]=E[bTvT]=∫bTvTfT(t)dt 011∞=b21v1∫fT(t)dt+b1v1∫1fT(t)dt+bT>1vT>1∫fT(t)dt 0<T≤0<T≤0<T≤1<T≤11222221111l1−lFe−r−L−rt−tr=ff1−e2+Fe−Fe+Feffe−e−l()[(2)2](2) 111L1−rL2+[(Fe2−Fe2+Fe2e−r)]e−l 11111121Fe−L−r−lL−r−l−r−ltrFe2Fe222Fe22Fe−tr−l=ff++−−ff ꎨꎩ 헢샯ꎬF=30ꎻt=10ꎻLf1=LIBOR2+%,21ꎨ1ꎬ2럖뇰듺뇭듓햮좯랢탐뫳냫쓪ꆢ튻쓪뗄,쟩뿶ꎩ듺뇭뻞퓖햮좯샻쾢싊ꎬ헢샯볙짨LIBOR1=12%,LIBOR2=%ꎻr=%ꎺ1997쓪쏀맺솪냮믹ힼ샻싊ꎻr10캪뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ횧뢶놾뷰뗄헛쿖샻싊ꎬ볙짨r10=%,퓚Vaugirard(2003)훐뗃떽l=ꎬ늢좡뗃쇋뫜뫃뗄펦폃ꎬ틲듋놾컄춬퇹볙짨닎쫽l캪ꎻ웤폠뇤솿몬틥춬뗚뛾늿럖튻퇹ꎬ쯹틔뗚튻떵뻞퓖햮좯볛룱캪ꎺ %%)%(+−−P=30e−10×+−−12%%)%%(+30e2+30e222 1−%−−30e22−30e−10×%−= () 뗚뛾떵뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ샻폃뗄햮좯5뗄뚨볛쒣탍캪횮뚨볛ꎬ늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ헢샯냫쓪뢶쾢튻듎ꎬ틲듋ꎬ룃뻞퓖햮좯캴살횧뢶쿖뷰쇷뗄쿖횵쒣탍ZT=bTvT캪ꎺ 111L1−rL2Fe2Fe2Fe2e−r(−)+T>11=11bvL−r1≥T>TT1 ꎨꎩ (Fe2−F)e2201≥T>02룃뻞퓖햮좯뗄샭싛볛룱캪ꎺ ? 38
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ∞P=E[ZT]=E[bTvT]=∫bTvTfT(t)dt?011∞=b21v1∫fT(t)dt+b1v1∫1fT(t)dt+bT>1vT>1fT(t)dt††††??0<T≤0<T≤0<T≤1<T≤1∫122222111111L1−r−lL1rL2=(Fe2−F)e2(e2−e−l−)+[(Fe2−Fe2+Fe2e−r)]e−l?111111L1−r−l−r−lL2−r−l=Fe222−Fe22+Fe2††††?†††?†††††?ꎨ㐮??ꎩ?헢샯ꎬF=30ꎻL1=LIBOR+%ꎬ춬짏112%,,21,2LIBOR=LIBOR2=%ꎻ춬퇹폐r=%ꎻl=ꎬ쯹틔뗚뛾떵뻞퓖햮좯볛룱캪ꎺ?1111×(12%+%)−×%1−×−×%14−××(%+%)−%−=30e222−30e22+30e2=†?㐮㌹??쒿잰뻞퓖햮좯ퟷ캪듳늿럖맺볒럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕뗄튻룶ퟮ뎣폃뗄쫖뛎ꎬ폐ퟅ탅폃럧쿕뗍ꆢ믹닮럧쿕킡ꆢ컈뚨퓙놣쿕쫐뎡뗄볛룱ꆢ춶쫕틦룟뗈폅뗣ꎬ쿠탅쯦ퟅ뻞퓖쫂볾춳볆쫽뻝뗄믽샛폫ퟔ좻퓖몦풤닢벼쫵뗄룄뷸ꎬ뻞퓖햮좯뇘좻돉캪ꎨ퓙ꎩ놣쿕죋럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕뫍춶헟붵뗍춶ퟩ뫏럧쿕뗄튻룶훘튪톡퓱ꆣ 킡뷡?룃늿럖뛔뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷훐랢햹ퟮ돉쫬ꆢ펦폃ퟮ맣랺뗄뻞퓖햮좯ퟶ쇋짮죫뗄퇐뺿ꎬ캪놾싛컄뗄뫋탄횮튻ꆣ쫗쿈뷩짜쇋뻞퓖햮좯뗄뿲볜ꎬ좻뫳룹뻝뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듳킡짨볆쇋컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뫍쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ늢뒴퓬탔뗘퓋폃놣쿕뺫쯣뚨볛램뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐뚨볛ꆣ???????? 39
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ??컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆뗄첽쳖?컒맺쫇룶퓖몦뛠랢맺볒ꎬ웈쟐탨튪춨맽붨솢췪짆뗄뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈살맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕ꆣ좻뛸평폚뻞퓖럧쿕쯹뻟폐뗄랢짺욵싊뗍ꆢ쯰쪧듳뗄쳘뗣ꎬ컒맺놣쿕릫쮾쓑틔돐떣뻞퓖듸살뗄뻞듳샭엢ꎬ틲듋놣쿕릫쮾뇘탫튪뻟놸뛠풪뮯룟킧뗄뻞퓖럧쿕럖즢춾뺶ꆣ헢튻헂붫퓚뷩짜컒맺뻞퓖뮷뺳쳘뗣뗄믹뒡짏럖컶컒맺쪵탐뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗄뿉탐탔ꎬퟮ뫳뛔컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆쳡돶붨짨탔뗄닎뾼틢볻ꆣ?㔮ㄠ컒맺뻞퓖뮷뺳뗄쳘뗣?컒맺맣듳뗘쟸짮쫜늻컈뚨뗄뚫퇇벾럧웸뫲ꎬ잿쇒뗄탂릹퓬퓋뚯ꎬ웰럼뗄뗘쫆폫샠탍뛠퇹뗄뗘쎲ꎬ훚뛠죋뿚폫폆뻃뗄뾪랢샺쪷벰좫쟲뇤뮯듸살훮뛠틲쯘뗄ퟛ뫏펰쿬ꎬ돉캪쫀뷧뮷쟲뫍뮷첫욽퇳솽듳ퟔ좻퓖몦뗘듸뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ컒맺뻞퓖뮷뺳뻟폐틔쿂벸랽쏦뗄쳘뗣ꎺ 愮?뗘헰믮뚯욵싊룟ꎬ잿뛈듳쟒뗘헰듸럖늼맣ꎬ룸죋쏱듸살뗄쯰쪧듳?컒맺쫇룶뛠뗘헰뗄맺볒ꎬ뚫쇚뮷첫욽퇳뗘헰듸ꎬ컷뷓퇇얷뗘헰듸ꎬ뺳쓚뗘뿇뗄뛏닣탇싞웥늼ꆣ놾쫀볍틔살ꎬ컒맺릲랢짺?벶틔짏뗘헰듎ꎬ?ꆪ㜮?벶뗘헰?폠듎ꎬ샺쪷짏돽쇋헣붭쪡뫍맳훝쪡췢ꎬ웤폠룷쪡쟸뻹랢짺맽?벶틔짏뗄뗘헰ꆣ컒맺뗄뗘헰믮뚯욵뛈룟ꆢ잿뛈듳ꆢ헰풴잳ꎬ㈯?쫴㘹䭍틔쓚뗄잳풴뗘헰ꎬ쫍럅쓜솿듳ꎬ쇒뛈웕뇩룟ꎬ뗘헰쟸쓚듳돇쫐뛠ꎬ닺벯훐ꆣ㌲?룶돇쫐훐폐튻냫캻폚믹놾쇒뛈틔짏뗘헰쟸ꎬ㈰룶냙췲틔짏죋뿚뗄듳돇쫐훐폐㜰?캻폚짏쫶뗘쟸ꋙꆣ틲듋ꎬ뗘헰퓖몦퇏훘펰쿬ퟅ죋쏱짺쏼닆닺낲좫뫍뺭볃짧믡뗄뿉돖탸랢햹ꆣ?戮?뫩샔퓖몦펰쿬랶캧맣ꆢ욵싊볓뿬ꆢ쯰쪧듳?돽즳쒮ꆢ벫뛋룉몵뗘쟸뫍룟몮뗘쟸췢ꎬ컒맺풼폐㈯?뗄맺췁쏦믽뚼듦퓚ퟅ늻춬돌뛈뫍늻춬샠탍뗄뫩샔퓖몦ꎬ퇘몣쪡ꆢퟔ훎쟸ꆢ횱쾽쫐쎿쓪뚼폐늿럖뗘쟸퓢쫜럧놩뎱틽웰뗄뫩쮮뗄쾮믷ꎬ짵훁탂붮ꆢ쟠몣ꆢ컷님뗈뗘폐쪱튲믡랢짺죚톩뫩쮮퓖몦ꆣ?뷼쓪살틲뮷뺳퓢떽웆뮵ꎬ짺첬욽뫢쪧뗷ꎬ퓬돉뫩쮮퓖몦랢짺뗄욵싊볓뿬ꎬ퓬돉뗄뺭볃쯰쪧튲쯦횮퓶뛠ꆣ뻝춳볆쇏쿔쪾ꎬ뷼㈰쓪살ꎬ컒맺뫩샔퓖몦뺭볃쯰쪧〰틚풪ꎬ풼햼좫맺䝄?뗄ㄥ?㌥ꎬ쎿쓪틲뫩샔쯀췶뗄죋샠듯잧죋틔짏ꋚꆣ?挮?첨럧퇏훘췾킲ퟅ컒맺뚫쓏퇘몣뗘쟸? ꋙ 췵뫩뚰ꎮ쳴햽뻞퓖랢햹컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕뗄닟싔탔럖컶ꎮ훐맺놣쿕ꎮ2002ꎬ6ꎮP34-35 ꋚ 쮮샻늿ꎮ2006훐맺쮮몵퓖몦릫놨 40
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 첨럧ꎬ톧쏻죈듸웸탽ꆣ컒맺쫇쫀뷧짏짙쫽벸룶쫜죈듸웸탽퇏훘펰쿬뗄맺볒횮튻ꎬ쎿쓪뗄?퓂럝떽퓂럝뚫쓏퇘몣뗈뺭볃랢듯뗘쟸뚼믡퓢쫜첨럧쟖몦ꎬ뺭볃쯰쪧퇏훘ꎬ뛸쟒쯦ퟅ훐맺쓚뗘퇘몣뗘쟸뗄뺭볃랢햹ꎬ죈듸럧놩뗄퓖쯰톸쯙퓶뎤ꆣ?뇈뷏뗘헰ꆢ뫩샔ꆢ첨럧헢죽룶뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ뗘헰놻죏캪쫇퓬돉짋췶죋쫽ퟮ뛠뗄뻞퓖ꎬ뫩샔쫇퓬돉컒맺쯰쪧ퟮ퇏훘뗄뻞퓖ꎬ첨럧퇏훘캣몦컒맺퇘몣랢듯뗘쟸뗄뺭볃랢햹뫍죋쏱짺믮ꆣ?㔮??컒맺쪵탐뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗄뿉탐탔럖컶?틔헾뢮닆헾뻈훺캪훷튪쫖뛎뗄퓖뫳죚쳥쾵ꎬ풽살풽늻쫊펦뻞퓖쯰쪧늹뎥뗄탨튪ꆣퟷ캪퓖잰죚믺훆뗄뻞퓖놣쿕ꎬ펵폐뒦샭뻞퓖뗄뛀쳘폅쫆ꎬ쫇펦뛔뻞퓖럧쿕뗄ퟮ병훆뛈톡퓱ꆣ췆뷸뻞퓖놣쿕ꎬ튪뻟놸튻뚨뗄뺭볃믹뒡ꆢ돐놣뺭퇩뗈쳵볾ꎬ쒿잰컒맺틑뺭뻟놸쇋늿럖뾪햹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄쳵볾ꆣ a? 뺭볃랢햹캪쪵쿖뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗬뚨쇋볡쪵뗄뺭볃믹뒡 룄룯뾪럅틔살ꎬ컒맺닆헾쫕죫솬쓪퓶뎤ꎬ폈웤쫇ퟔ2003쓪춻웆2췲틚맘뿚횮뫳ꎬ닆헾쫕죫쓪뻹퓶쯙뻹뎬맽20%ꆣ2008쓪쒩ꎬ쯤좻쫜떽뺭볃퓶쯙럅뮺뗈틲쯘펰쿬ꎬ닆헾쫕죫퓶쯙폐쯹쿂붵ꎬ떫죔좻놣돖퓚19%ퟳ폒ꋙꎬ2009쓪쪵쿖닆헾쫕죫췲틚풪ꋚꆣ돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫튲퓚늻뛏퓶볓ꎬ죧뢽슼3ꎬ2005쓪훁2009쓪ꎬ쓪뻹퓶쯙뻹퓚10%틔짏ꎨ돽쇋2009쓪ꎬ룃쓪캪%ꎩꆣ닆헾벰뻓쏱쫕죫뗄뿬쯙쳡룟ꎬ캪쪵쪩뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗬뚨쇋튻뚨뗄뺭볃믹뒡ꆣ b? 헾뢮벰놣쿕뗈쿠맘늿쏅훰붥죏쪶떽놣쿕뛔맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕뗄훘튪탔 뷼쓪살컒맺듳탍ퟔ좻퓖몦욵랢ꎬ죋쏱좺훚짺닺짺믮쫜떽쇋뻞듳펰쿬ꎬ헾뢮뗄퓖몦펦벱맜샭뫍퓖몦뻈훺쓜솦튲쏦쇙ퟅ쳴햽ꆣ룷벶헾뢮벰쿠맘늿쏅죏쪶떽ꎬ튪쪹뻞퓖럧쿕쓜릻퓚룼맣룼듳뗄랶캧쓚럖즢뫍돐떣ꎬ헾뢮뇘탫웰떽튻뚨뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ죧ꎬ퓚훐맺뺭볃짧믡랢햹“쪮튻컥”맦뮮훐ꎬ쏷좷쳡돶쇋퓚“쪮튻컥”웚볤튪퇐뺿붨솢맺볒닆헾횧돖뗄얩튵뫍뻞퓖퓙놣쿕쳥쾵ꋛꆣ 뻟쳥떽놣쿕튵살쮵ꎬ놣쿕볠뚽맜샭캯풱믡ꎨ볲돆ꎺ놣볠믡ꎩ럇뎣훘쫓뗘헰뗈뻞퓖놣쿕릤ퟷꆣ2003쓪틔살ꎬ놣볠믡춬뗘헰뻖ꆢ쮰컱ퟜ뻖ꆢ닆헾늿뗈쿠맘늿쏅ꎬ뻍췆뚯컒맺볒춥닆닺뗄뗘헰놣쿕훆뛈뷸탐첽쯷뫍퇐뺿ꎬ좡뗃쇋믽벫뷸햹ꆣ춬쪱퓚얩튵뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈랽쏦튲뷸탐쇋폐틦뗄첽쯷ꆣ c. 죋쏱좺훚뗄럧쿕뫍놣쿕틢쪶훰늽쳡룟 ꋙ 2008쓪훐맺닆헾쫕죫풤볆춻웆6췲틚풪ꎮ 41
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 룄룯뾪럅돵웚ꎬ쿻럑헟뛔놣쿕뗄쇋뷢짵짙ꎬ쯦ퟅ놣쿕횪쪶뗄웕벰ꎬ뻓쏱뗄럧쿕틢쪶훰붥쳡룟ꎬ폈웤쫇쯦ퟅ놣쿕펪쿺쒣쪽뗄뒴탂ꎬ쿻럑헟쇋뷢놣쿕뗄춾뺶뫍쟾뗀튲죕쟷뛠퇹뮯ꆣ춬쪱평폚뻞퓖쫂볾뗄랢짺ꎬ뻓쏱톰쟳볒춥닆닺낲좫ꎬ틆뗘헰뗈뻞퓖럧쿕뗄탨쟳죕틦삩듳ꎬ헢캪삩듳뻞퓖놣쿕뢲룇쏦ꆢ붨솢뫍췪짆뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗬뚨쇋믹뒡ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬ맺볊짏틑뺭폐뇈뷏뫃뗄뺭퇩뫍쒣쪽뿉릩뷨본ꎬ뻝쫀뷧틸탐춳볆ꎬ쒿잰쫀뷧랶캧쓚폐룶맺볒뫍뗘쟸릲붨솢쇋ㄴ룶뻞퓖놣쿕믹뷰ꎬ냼삨쏀맺볓훝ꆢ탂컷삼ꆢ죕놾ꆢ췁뛺웤뗈ꎬ듳늿럖닉폃헾뢮뫍놣쿕탐튵릲춬뫏ퟷ닎폫뗄랽쪽ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ듳뛠쫽맺볒쫇퓚뗘헰뗈뻞퓖랢짺뫳?훁?쓪뗄웚볤쓚붨솢쇋놾맺뗄뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈ꎬ헢캪컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗄붨솢쳡릩쇋놦맳뗄뺭퇩뷨본ꋙꆣ?㔮??컒맺뾪햹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆뗄쮼슷?캪쇋랢믓놣쿕퓚맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ퓶볓쫐뎡짏맘폚뻞퓖놣쿕닺욷뗄릩룸ꎬ뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾살쮵ꎬ웤잰쳡쳵볾쫇ꎺ뇘탫싺ퟣ웤컈뚨뺭펪ꎬ냑럧쿕뿘훆퓚쓜릻돐쫜뗄랶캧쓚ꎬ뮻뻤뮰쮵ꎬ쓜릻냑늻뿉틔돐떣뗄럧쿕틆ꆢ럖즢돶좥ꆣ쿂쏦붫듓솽룶랽쏦살럖컶컒맺뾪햹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꎺ?㔮㌮??붨솢뻞퓖놣쿕뗄퓙놣쿕쳥쾵?펦뛔뻞퓖럧쿕쯰쪧ꎬ퓙놣쿕폐ퟅ쳬좻뗄럖즢럧쿕뗄쓜솦ꎬ퓚럖즢놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뗄뻞퓖럧쿕짏웤쯹웰뗄ퟷ폃쫇늻뿉뫶쫓뗄ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ본폚뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쳘탔ꎬ펦룃붨솢뛠닣듎뗄뻞퓖퓙놣쿕쳥쾵ꆣ?愮?엠폽맺쓚짌튵퓙놣쿕릫쮾?믽벫엠폽랢햹맺쓚퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ쳡룟퓙놣쿕릫쮾뗄럧쿕에뛏쓜솦ꎬ퓚뺭펪쮼쿫짏ꎬ튪볡돖맦쒣폫킧틦ꆢ훊솿폫쯙뛈쿠욥엤ꎬ퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ볓듳퓙놣쿕닺욷뗄뒴탂솦뛈ꎬ늻뛏쳡룟퓙놣쿕뛔횱뷓놣쿕릫쮾뻞퓖놣쿕뗄벼쫵횧돖솦뛈ꆣ춬쪱헹좡뺡뿬냑훐맺닆닺퓙놣쿕릫쮾짏쫐ꎬ틔삩듳웤놾맦쒣뫍돐놣쓜솦ꆣ?戮?틽뷸맺췢퓙놣쿕릫쮾?컒맺펦룃좫랽캻뾪럅퓙놣쿕쫐뎡ꎬ틽뷸뷰쪵솦탛뫱ꆢ튵컱벼쫵뺫햿ꆢ뺭펪뺭퇩럡뢻뗄맺볊횪쏻퓙놣쿕릫쮾뫍ퟩ횯ꎬ샽죧쒽쓡뫚퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꆢ죰쪿퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꆢ펢맺샍뫏짧뗈릫쮾 ꋙ?놣쿕퓚뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎺ?맺볊쫓뷇뫍훐맺뗄쿖쪵톡퓱ꎮ훐맺랢햹퇐뺿믹뷰믡퇐뺿쿮쒿ꎮ㈰〹ꎬ?? 42
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뫍ퟩ횯ꆣ헢퇹퓚퓶볓퓙놣쿕쫐뎡훷쳥뗄춬쪱ꎬ뷸튻늽돤쪵쇋쿖폐퓙놣쿕쫐뎡뗄놾쪵솦ꎬ쪹풭놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뗄뻞퓖럧쿕룼뫃뗄럖즢떽퓙놣쿕쫐뎡짏ꆣ?挮?붨솢헾뢮닎폫뗄맺볒퓙놣쿕릫쮾?맺볒퓙놣쿕릫쮾펦룃쫇헾뢮짨솢뗄튻룶쏅벯훐맜샭뻞퓖놣쿕뗄헾닟탔뗄럇펯샻믺릹ꎬ웤ퟩ돉돉풱폐헾뢮ꆢ짌튵놣쿕릫쮾뗈ꎬ웤훷튪횰퓰쫇ꎺ럖죫룷놣쿕릫쮾럖돶뗄뻞퓖놣쿕튵컱ꎻ뢺퓰뻞퓖놣쿕ힼ놸뷰뗄뺭펪맜샭ꎬ좷놣웤놣횵퓶횵ꎻ뢺퓰좫맺뻞퓖놣쿕뗄죚ꎻ뷓쫜맜샭헾뢮닆헾늦뿮믲헾뢮듻뿮뗈ꆣ맺볒퓙놣쿕릫쮾ퟷ캪튻룶럇펯샻믺릹ꎬ뻟폐튻뚨뗄헾닟틢틥ꎬ쪹놣쿕릫쮾늻뇘떣탄퓙놣쿕릫쮾뻜뻸뛔웤돐떣뗄뻞퓖럧쿕뷸탐럖놣ꆣ?놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕뫳ꎬ뿉틔내웤쫐뎡햼폐싊돐떣쿠펦뇈샽뗄뻞퓖럧쿕퓰죎ꎬ좻뫳퓙붫쯹쪣쿂뗄튵컱럖룸맺볒퓙놣쿕릫쮾뫍웤쯼맺쓚췢짌튵퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ듓뛸쪵쿖뻞퓖럧쿕퓚퓙놣쿕쳥쾵쓚돤럖뗄럖즢ꆣ?㔮㌮㈠랢햹뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯뗄뛔닟붨틩?캪쇋놣횤뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯뗄쮳샻랢햹ꎬ룹뻝컒맺뷰죚탐튵랢햹뗄쿖ힴꎬ랢햹뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯펦룃뷢뻶틔쿂벸룶컊쳢ꎺ??愮?쳡룟놣쿕릫쮾틆뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뚯솦ꎬ퓶볓폫횤좯튵횮볤뗄붻쇷폫뫏ퟷ?컒맺쒿잰놣쿕튵쯤좻뒦폚뿬쯙랢햹뷗뛎ꎬ돐놣쓜솦튲훰쓪퓶볓ꎬ떫쫇쿠뛔폚랢듯맺볒살쮵ꎬ웤돐놣쓜솦틀좻뷏뗍ꆣ뛔폚뻞퓖럧쿕살쮵룼쫇죧듋ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾믲헟뻜뻸돐놣믲헟평폚춶놣죋뗄춶놣틢쪶놡죵뛸캴춶놣ꎬ뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾살붲ꎬ쎻폐살ퟔ뻞퓖랽쏦뗄럧쿕믲헟뫜킡ꎬ듓뛸좱랦럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뚯솦ꎬ튲뻍컞탨춨맽뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯살틆럧쿕ꆣ틲듋ꎬ튪볓뿬놣쿕탐튵뗄랢햹ꎬ쳡룟웤돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕쓜솦ꎬ듓뛸퓶볓놣쿕릫쮾춨맽횤좯뮯랽쪽틆뻞퓖럧쿕뗄뚯솦ꆣ?쇭췢ꎬ뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯퓋ퟷ훁짙짦벰놣쿕튵뫍횤좯튵ꎬ떫쫇퓚컒맺쒿잰뷰죚럖튵룱뻖쿂ꎬ놣쿕튵폫횤좯튵쿠뮥횮볤뗄릵춨뮹쪮럖폐쿞ꆣ틲듋ꎬ튪쿫샻폃횤좯뮯랽쪽살럖즢ꆢ틆뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ퓲펦룃볓뿬놣쿕튵뫍횤좯튵뗄릵춨폫뫏ퟷꎬ퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쓜릻듯떽벼쫵ꆢ탅쾢뗈릲쿭ꆣ?戮?붨솢뻞퓖랢짺욵싊뫍쯰쪧쫽뻝뿢?쒿잰컒맺좱랦췪놸뗄맘폚뻞퓖랢짺욵싊뫍쯰쪧뗄샺쪷춳볆쇏ꎬ좱짙쿠맘뗄뺫쯣벼쫵ꎬ쎻폐쾵춳돉쫬뗄뻞퓖럖늼쒣탍ꎬ듓뛸믡펰쿬떽컒맺뻞퓖횤좯뮯닺욷뚨볛뗄뫏샭탔ꆣ죧맻컒쏇늻쓜폐냑컕뗘볆쯣돶헢킩럧쿕닺룃죧뫎뚨볛ꎬ쓇쎴뛔춶헟뛸퇔퓲늻뻟폐컼틽솦ꎬ늻쓜폐 43
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 킧뗘돉캪춶폫럖즢럧쿕뗄릤뻟ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒맺펦룃붨솢룷훖ퟔ좻퓖몦뗄뻞퓖쇏ꎬ춬쪱뷡뫏맺볊짏뗄쿈뷸벼쫵뫍맜샭뺭퇩ꎬ볓잿쿠맘횪쪶뗄웕벰뫍탻뒫솦뛈ꎬ듙쪹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄탨쟳랽뫍맣듳춶죋쇋뷢뫍쫬쾤헢훖탂뗄럧쿕틆랽쪽뫍춶쟾뗀ꆣ?挮?붨솢붡좫쿠맘램맦틔벰엤쳗듫쪩?뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯믺훆뢴퓓ꎬ쪵볊닙ퟷ맽돌훐짦벰놣쿕ꆢ횤좯ꆢ쮰쫕뗈룷룶쇬폲ꎬ죧맻좱랦튻쳗췪짆뗄램싉쳥쾵ퟷ캪횧돖ꎬ뫜쓑쪵쿖웤붡뾵ꆢ맦랶뗄랢햹ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ뇏뺹뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯쫴폚탂짺쫂컯ꎬ컒맺횤좯ꆢ놣쿕볠맜믺릹뛔듋폐튻룶훰늽쫬쾤뗄맽돌ꎬ펦룃훰늽췪짆램싉ꆢ믡볆ꆢ쮰쫕훆뛈ꎬ볓잿놣쿕ꆢ틸탐뫍횤좯뗄춳튻볠맜ꎬ듙쪹뷰죚쫐뎡폫놣쿕쫐뎡뗄쿠뮥죚뫏ꆣ?춨맽틔짏럖컶ꎬ뿉틔볲떥뗘짨볆튻룶맘폚뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꎺ쫗쿈헾뢮튪훆뚨튻쾵쇐맘폚뻞퓖놣쿕랽쏦뗄램싉맦랶ꎬ맦뚨헾뢮죧뫎뛔뻞퓖놣쿕튵뷸탐횧돖ꎬ횧돖솦뛈뛠듳ꎬ뇈죧맦뚨떱놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕쪱ꎬ헾뢮뇣뛔놣쿕릫쮾룸폨쮰쫕뗈랽쏦뗄폅믝믲횱뷓룸폨뷰늹쳹ꆣ웤듎떱놣쿕릫쮾돐놣뻞퓖럧쿕뫳ꎬ쿈ퟔ쇴튻늿럖럧쿕ꎬ좻뫳냑돐쫜쓜솦랶캧횮췢뗄뻞퓖럧쿕틆룸퓙놣쿕죋ꎨ맺볒튵퓙놣쿕릫쮾뫍맺쓚췢웤쯼짌튵퓙놣쿕릫쮾ꎩ뫍?믲놾쫐뎡ꎨ춨맽뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯랽쪽ꎩ짏뗄춶죋ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ짌튵놣쿕릫쮾뿉틔붫돐놣뗄뻞퓖럧쿕틆룸헾뢮ꆢ퓙놣쿕쫐뎡ꆢ놾쫐뎡ꎬ돤럖럖즢쇋뻞퓖럧쿕ꆣ웤뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆죧춼???쯹쪾ꎺ?헾뢮 춶놣죋 놣쿕죋 퓙놣쿕죋 놾쫐뎡 ꎨ춶죋ꎩ ?춼???ꎺ뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆춼?킡뷡?놾헂뷡뫏컒맺뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쳘뗣ꎬ뛔컒맺쪵탐뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗄뿉탐탔뷸탐쇋튻뚨뗄럖컶ꎬ†††††††††††††늢퓚첽쳖죧뫎붨솢컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ볲떥뗘짨볆쇋튻룶뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆랽낸ꆣ? 44
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ??뷡싛폫햹췻?놾헂붫튪뛔좫컄뗄쓚죝뷸탐ퟜ뷡맩벯ꎬ늢뷡뫏놾컄퇐뺿뗄훘뗣ꎬ뛔웤쯻뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯닺욷뗄뚨볛랽램ퟶ튻룶햹췻ꆣ?뷡싛?뇊헟퓚톧쾰맺쓚췢맘폚뻞퓖놣쿕첽쯷뗄뺭퇩돉맻뫍퇐뺿컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕쪵볊뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뛔뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆뷸탐쇋짮죫뗄첽쳖ꎬ럖컶쇋컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕쏦쇙뗄믺폶뫍컊쳢ꎬ첽뺿쇋뻞퓖놣쿕횤좯뮯뗄폐킧쪵쿖춾뺶ꎬ늢퓚듋믹뒡짏뛔웤럖즢랽쪽뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛ퟷ쇋짮닣듎뗄웊컶늢ퟜ뷡돶쇋뫏샭뗄뚨볛냬램ꆣ놾싛컄뗄훷튪퇐뺿돉맻죧쿂ꎺ 愮?뻞퓖놣쿕뗄쿖쪵탨쟳벰랢햹쿖ힴꆣ컒맺쫇룶퓖몦뛠랢맺볒ꎬ평폚뻞퓖놣쿕쳥쾵짐캴붨솢ꎬ뗘헰뗈ퟔ좻퓖몦룸죋쏱퓬돉뗄뺭볃쯰쪧훷튪평헾뢮뻈볃뫍짧믡뻨훺살늹뎥ꆣ헢훖랽쪽듦퓚ퟅ훖훖뇗뛋ꎬ죧쯹늦퓖뿮쫜헾뢮닆헾풤쯣훆풼ꎬ횻쓜놣헏퓖쏱ퟮ뗍짺믮탨쟳ꎬ뻈퓖킧싊튲뷏뗍ꆣ춨맽쫐뎡뮯뗄춾뺶살맜샭뻞퓖럧쿕ꎬ벴붨솢췪짆뗄뻞퓖놣쿕쳥쾵틑돉캪튻훖뇘좻탨쟳ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ뻞퓖럧쿕웤뛀폐쳘뗣뻶뚨쇋뇘탫튪뻟놸뛠풪뮯룟킧뗄뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕틆춾뺶ꎬ닅쓜놣횤웤돖탸랢햹ꆣ?戮?뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆뗄첽뺿ꆣ놾컄퇐뺿뇈뷏쇋솽훖뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕뗄럖즢믺훆ꆪꆪ퓙놣쿕뫍뻞퓖럧쿕횤좯뮯ꎬ퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ퓙놣쿕퓚럖즢뻞퓖럧쿕랽쏦듦퓚쏷쿔늻ퟣꎬ돐떣뻞퓖럧쿕뗄쓜솦폐쿞ꎬ뛸뻞퓖놣쿕횤좯뮯늻쪧캪럧쿕럖즢뗄튻훖폐킧춾뺶ꎬ뷸뛸뛔뻞퓖횤좯뮯뗄놳뺰벰뿉탐탔뷸탐쇋뫏샭첽쳖ꆣ?挮?뻞퓖햮좯벰뻞퓖햮좯뗄뚨볛믺훆ꆣ퓚뛔뻞퓖햮좯뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ놾컄룹뻝뻞퓖랢짺쪱ꎬ춶헟돐떣뗄럧쿕듳킡짨볆쇋컥훖뛌웚뻞퓖햮좯뫍쯄훖뎤웚뻞퓖햮좯ꎬ늢뒴퓬탔뗘퓋폃놣쿕뺫쯣뚨볛램캪웤뚨볛ꆣ?搮?헾뢮뛔뻞퓖놣쿕뗄폐쿞뷩죫벰헾닟탔놣쿕뗄췆맣잰뺰ꆣ룹뻝뗚뛾늿럖랢듯맺볒뾪햹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄뺭퇩ꎬ퓚뾪햹뻞퓖놣쿕뗄맽돌훐ꎬ헾뢮뗄뷩죫쫇뫜폐뇘튪뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄쳡돶쇋튻룶벯퓙놣쿕쫐뎡ꆢ놾쫐뎡ꆢ헾뢮폐믺춳튻뗄뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢믺훆ꆣ뻞퓖놣쿕탨튪헾뢮뗄뫪맛룉풤뫍헾닟탔췆뚯횧돖ꎬ헢붫폐샻폚볓뿬컒맺놣쿕쫐뎡뫍놾쫐뎡죚뫏뗄뷸돌ꎬ폐훺폚삩듳놣쿕뷰살풴ꎬ삩듳짌튵놣쿕릫쮾뛔뻞퓖럧쿕뗄돐놣쓜솦ꎬ틆뫍럖즢웤돐놣뻞퓖뗄럧쿕ꆣ춬쪱뫜듳돌뛈짏럖떣헾뢮닆헾톹솦ꎬ캪짧믡쳡릩좫랽캻뗄놣헏ꆣ? 45
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 햹췻?퓚뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕럖즢훆뛈뗄붨솢훐ꎬ뮹폐뫜뛠뗄컊쳢탨튪좥퇐뺿뫍뷢뻶ꎬ뇈죧ꎬ뻞퓖놣쿕램뗄붨솢ꎬ뻞퓖놣쿕럑싊뗄볆쯣랽쪽ꎬ뛠늿쏅횮볤뗄뫏ퟷꎬ볠맜듫쪩뗈컊쳢뚼탨튪짮죫뗄첽쳖ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ놾컄횻쫇뛔튻훖쫐뎡뮯럖즢믺훆ꆪꆪ뻞퓖햮좯뷸탐쇋뚨볛ꎬ뛔뻞퓖웚믵ꆢ뻞퓖웚좨ꆢ뻞퓖뮥뮻뗈횤좯뮯닺욷뗄뚨볛퇐뺿죔좻쫇탨튪뷸튻늽좥쮼뾼ꆣ?뿉틔쿠탅ꎬ쯦ퟅ컒맺퓚뻞퓖랽쏦뗄훘쫓뫍룷랽쏦뗄횪쪶ꆢ죋닅ꆢ뺭퇩뗄믽샛ꎬ뻞퓖놣쿕붫캪컒맺퓖뫳훘붨ꆢ퓖쟸죋쏇뗄짺믮뫍짺닺뗄믖뢴쳡릩뺭볃놣헏ꎬ듓뛸퓬뢣폚맣듳죋쏱ꆣ???????????????????? 46
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 닎뾼컄쿗?ꆾ?ꆿ?샮폂좨ꎮ뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕횤좯뮯퇐뺿ꎮ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ2005ꎮ1ꎮP82-110?ꆾ?ꆿ?뫺뇾횾ꎬ돂횮돾ꎮ퓙놣쿕ꎮ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺뷰죚돶냦짧ꎬ2007ꎮ6ꎮP252-255?ꆾ?ꆿ?쏏쇺ꎮ맺볊쫓튰폫훐맺놣쿕컊쳢ꎮ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ2009ꎮ2ꎮP201-251?ꆾ?ꆿ?믹쮼ꆤ뾨쮼늮즭ꎬ뗂뿋ꆤ쓡웦훸ꎮ헅쳕캰ꎬ역폀붭틫ꎮ뷰죚릤돌ꎮ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ2004ꎮ7ꎮP292-299?ꆾ5ꆿ?췵뫩뚰ꎮ쳴햽뻞퓖랢햹컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕뗄닟싔탔럖컶ꎮꆶ훐맺놣쿕ꆷꎮ2002ꎬ6ꎮP34-35ꎮ ꆾ6ꆿ?컥쿾ꎬ볓쳙킢쏷ꎮ죕놾뗘헰퓖몦놣쿕쳥훆뗄탎돉벰웤컊쳢ꎮꆶퟔ좻퓖몦톧놨ꆷꎮ12ꎨ4ꎩꎬ2003ꎬ12ꎨ4ꎩꎮP93-99 ꆾ?ꆿ?컢뻼ꎬ쯯쿾뾥ꎮ싛뻞퓖햮좯퓚컒맺뗄랢햹ꎮꆶ놣쿕퇐뺿ꆷꎮ2004ꎬ11ꎮP19-21?ꆾ?ꆿ?헅믔ꎮ쏀맺뗄얩튵놣쿕ꎮꆶ훐맺놣쿕ꆷꎮ2005ꎬ12ꎮP59-60?ꆾ?ꆿ?탬낮죙ꎮ뻞퓖햮좯뗄튻훖뚨볛쒣탍[J]ꎮꆶ놣쿕횰튵톧풺톧놨ꆷꎮ2005ꎬ(3)ꎮP12-14?ꆾ10ꆿ훜붨뮪ꎮ죕놾얩튵놣쿕랢햹룅쫶벰웴쪾ꎮꆶ뫾쓏얩튵듳톧톧놨ꆷꎨ짧믡뿆톧냦ꎩꎮ2005ꎬ10ꎮP32-34 ꆾ11ꆿ 헅횾쏷ꎮ놣쿕릫쮾뻞퓖놣쿕럧쿕횤좯뮯돵첽[J]ꎮꆶ뚫놱닆뺭듳톧톧톧놨ꆷꎮ2006ꎬꎨ5ꎩꎮP60-63 ꆾㄲꆿ 샮횾톧ꎬ돌쏍ꎮ쏀맺뫍죕놾뗄얩튵놣쿕쒣쪽벰웤뛔컒쏇뗄웴쪾ꎮꆶ컷낲쪯폍듳톧톧놨ꆷꎨ짧믡뿆톧냦ꎩꎮ2007ꎬ17(1)ꎮP15-19?ꆾㄳꆿ 쇵헽컄ꎬ릨죕뎯ꎮ릹붨뫍킳짧믡쿂뗄뻞퓖놣쿕쳥쾵ꎮꆶ쓏뮪듳톧톧놨ꆷꎨ짧믡뿆톧냦ꎩꎮ2007ꎬ2ꎮP53-56?ꆾ14ꆿ 쪩붨쿪ꎬ쟘?ꎮ믹폚벫횵샭싛뗄뗘헰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛[J]ꎮꆶ춳볆폫뻶닟ꆷꎮ2008ꎬ(21)ꎮP18-20 ꆾㄵꆿ 싀횾폂ꎮ춸맽뒨뗘헰뾴컒맺뛔뻞퓖럧쿕쯰쪧늹뎥믺훆뗄톡퓱ꎮꆶ즽뚫짧믡뿆톧ꆷꎮ2008ꎬ10ꎮP60-67?ꆾㄶꆿ?붯삼믛ꎬ샮폗욽ꎬ췲뒺쎷뗈ꎮ뒨뗘헰폶쓑톧짺뢸쒸짺믮쿖ힴ뗄뫡뛏쏦뗷닩ꎮꆶ훐맺톭횤튽톧퓓횾ꆷꎮ㈰〹ꎬ?ꎨ?ꎩꎮ倱㜱?ㄷ??ꆾㄷꆿ?헔풷듯ꎮ뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈쒣쪽럖컶폫컒맺뻞퓖놣쿕훆뛈뗄볜릹ꎮꆶ닆쎳뺭볃ꆷꎮ㈰〹ꎬ?ꎮP70-76?ꆾ18ꆿ?뛅쇖ꎮ죕놾뗘헰놣쿕쒣쪽럖컶벰뷨본ꎮꆶ훐맺쫐뎡ꆷꎮ㈰〹ꎬㄴꎮP26-27 47
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ꆾ19ꆿ 훜뫘뻽ꎬ뷰퇠짺ꎮ뻞퓖햮좯뗄튻훖뚨볛쒣탍[J]ꎮꆶ톧샭싛ꆷꎮ2009ꎬ(11)ꎮP44-45 ꆾ㈰ꆿ 췵탂탂ꎮ틔놣쿕캪훘튪쓚죝뗄컒맺뻞퓖럧쿕맜샭쳥쾵첽쳖ꎮꆶ퓖몦톧ꆷꎮ2009ꎬ12ꎮP138-142?ꆾ㈱ꆿ 역뎿ꎮ컒맺?듽훆뚨뻞퓖놣쿕램ꎮꆶ훐맺놣쿕ꆷꎮ2009ꎬ7ꎮP30-33?ꆾ㈲ꆿ 돂뇲ꎬ붡ꎬ샮열ꎮ뻞퓖햮좯퓚컒맺뗄펦폃럖컶ꎮꆶ짏몣놣쿕ꆷꎮ2009ꎬ10ꎮP39-60?ꆾ㈳ꆿ 뫎쫷뫬ꎬ돂뫆ꎬ퇮쫀컈ꎮ뻞퓖럧쿕럖즢쒣쪽퇐뺿ꎮꆶ뺭볃컊쳢첽쯷ꆷꎮ2010ꎬ1ꎮP100-104?ꆾ㈴ꆿ?卩杭愠㈰〷⼲ꎮ2006쓪뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦뫍죋캪쫂맊ꎺ놣쿕쯰쪧뷏뗍?ꆾ㈵ꆿ?卩杭愠㈰〸⼱ꎮ2007쓪뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦폫죋캪퓖쓑ꎺ얷훞쯰쪧닒훘?ꆾ㈶ꆿ??楧浡′〰㤯?ꎮ㈰〸쓪뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦폫죋캪퓖쓑ꎺ놱쏀뫍퇇훞퇏훘쫜퓖?ꆾ27ꆿ좫쟲뻞퓖햮좯랢탐솿폐췻짏짽ꎮ 볻 /ꎮ2009ꎬ9ꎮ ꆾ28ꆿ 2009쓪뻞퓖햮좯랢탐붫듯떽40틚쏀풪ꎮ 볻 php? ꎮ2009ꎬ10 ꆾ29ꆿ 훐맺맺쏱뺭볃뫍짧믡랢햹ꆰ쪮튻컥ꆱ맦뮮룙튪ꎨ좫컄ꎩꎮ 볻 ꆾ30ꆿ Samuel H. Cox , Hal W. Pedersen. Catastrophe Risk Bonds, North American Actuarial Journal, 2001, 4(4), -82. ꆾ31ꆿ Kazysztof Burnecki, Grzegorz Kukla, Pricing of Zero-coupon and couple cat bonds, Applicationes Mathematicaeꎬ2003ꎬ30 (3) ,-324. ꆾ32ꆿ Patrice Poncet, Victor E. Vaugirard, The Pricing of Insurance-Linked Securities Under Interest Rate Uncertainty, The Journal of Risk Financeꎬ2002,-59. ꆾ33ꆿ Victor E. Vaugirard, Valuing Catastrophe Bonds by Monte Carlo Simulations, Applied Mathematical Finance, 2003, (10) ,–90. ꆾ34ꆿ Victor E. Vaugirard, Pricing Catastrophe Bonds by an Arbitrage Approach, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Financeꎬ2003ꎬ(43) ,–132 ꆾ35ꆿ Ernest B. Abbott, Floods, Flood Insurance, Litigation, Politics-and Catastrophe: The National Flood Insurance Program. Sea Grant Law and Policy Journal, 2008,7. ꆾ36ꆿ Jong-Hag Jang, The Prospect of Catastrophe Securitization in China, International Business Research, 2009,10. P159-166. 48
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ꆾ37ꆿ Briys E., From Genoa to Kobe: Natural Hazards, Insurance Risks and the Pricing of Insurance-Linked Bonds, LondonꎺLehman Brothers International, 1997. ꆾ38ꆿ Yu. Baryshnikov, A. Mayo & D. R. Taylor, Pricing of Cat Bonds, University of Osnabruck, working paper, 1998, 10, 22. ꆾ39ꆿ Root, Kenneth, the Market for Catastrophe risk: A Clinical Examination, NBER Working Paper Series, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1999. ꆾ40ꆿ Morton Lane, Olivier Mabul, Catastrophe Risk Pricing, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, 2008, (10). ꆾ41ꆿ J. David Cummins, Marry A. Weiss, The Global Market for reinsurance: Consolidation, Capacity, and Efficiency, Working Paper, ꆾ42ꆿ J. David Cummins, Cat Bonds and Other Risk-Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments, Temple University, Working Paper, ꆾ43ꆿ Jerry Skees, Barry Barnett, Jason Hartell, Innovations in Government Responses to Catastrophe Risk Sharing for Agriculture in Developing Countries, Working Paper, 2005,5. ꆾ44ꆿ Michael Bayard Smith, L. Jaimie Pickles, An Introduction to Catastrophe Insurance Futures, Working Paper, 2002,5. ꆾ45ꆿ Cummins, Cat Bonds and other risk-linked securities: state of the Market and Recent Developments, Temple University, Working Paper, 2007. 49
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 뢽슼?뢽슼?ꎺㄹ㜰?㈰〸쓪뻞퓖랢짺쫽???햪ퟔꎺ獩杭愠㈯㈰〹??뢽슼?ꎺㄹ㜰?㈰〸쓪볤뗄뻞퓖놣쿕쯰쪧???햪ퟔꎺ獩杭愠㈯㈰〹??? 50
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 ?뢽슼?ꎺ㈰〵?㈰〹쓪돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫춼? (햪ퟔꎺ 51
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 훂킻?쪱맢??ꎬ죽쓪뗄퇐뺿짺짺믮벴붫뷡쫸ꎬ떱컒쳡뇊킴훂킻듇뗄쪱뫲ꎬ탄훐쓑틔욽뺲ꎬ죽쓪잰뗚튻듎뫍떼쪦튻웰첽쳖컊쳢ꎬ뫍춬톧튻웰ퟶ뿎쳃퇝쪾컄룥ꆭꆭ뗄튻쒻쒻뚼뢡쿖퓚퇛잰ꆣ믘쿫헢죽쓪훐룸폨컒뫜뛠횸떼뫍냯훺뗄샏쪦ꆢ춬톧뫍엳폑ꎬ룐벤횮쟩ꎬ쓑틔퇔뇭ꆣ?쫗쿈튪훔탄룐킻컒뺴낮뗄떼쪦ꆪꆪ짲엦쇺뷌쫚ꎬ죽쓪살컒컞쪱컞뿌늻룐쫜떽떼쪦퇏뷷뗄뷌톧첬뛈ꆢ풨늩뗄횪쪶ꆢ룟짐뗄죋룱뫍잿쇒뗄뺴튵뺫짱ꎬ헢킩뚼죃컒쫜틦럋잳ꆣ놾컄쫇퓚떼쪦뗄뺫탄횸떼쿂췪돉뗄ꎬ듓톡쳢ꆢ뿲볜릹붨떽돉룥ꎬ떼쪦뚼쟣힢쇋듳솿뗄뺫솦ꆣ퇐뺿짺웚볤짲엦쇺뷌쫚뛔ퟔ벺뗄ힻힻ뷌믥틔벰뛔컒쮼캬랽쪽뗄엠퇸ꎬ뚼붫펰쿬ퟅ컒뷱뫳뗄톧쾰뫍짺믮ꎬ뇞닟ퟅ컒늻뛏얬솦ꆣ퓚듋훔탄힣풸떼쪦벰웤볒죋폀풶탒뢣ꆢ붡뾵ꆣ?룐킻즽컷닆뺭듳톧닆헾뷰죚톧풺뗄룷캻쇬떼ꆢ샏쪦ꎬ쯻쏇뗄탁쟚릤ퟷ뛔컒뗄돉뎤폐ퟅ짮훘뫍늻뿉쒥쏰뗄틢틥ꆣ돽쇋튵횪쪶벼쓜횮췢ꎬ컒뗃떽룼뛠뗄쫇쮼캬뗄돉쫬뫍죋짺뗄헽좷뚨캻ꎬ헢킩뚼붫쪹컒훕짺쫜폃ꆣ?웤듎컒튪룐킻냯훺뫍맘탄컒뗄춬톧ꆢ엳폑ꆣ죽쓪살뗄뎯쾦쿠뒦ꎬ죃컒룐쫜떽뷡쪶쓣쏇뗄뿉맳폫탒뢣ꎬ틲캪폐쇋쓣쏇뗄냯훺뫍폑틪ꎬ컒뗄톧쾰짺믮닅뗃틔죧듋폤뿬뫍쟡쯉ꆣ쓣쏇캪컒쯹ퟷ뗄튻쟐ꎬ뗣뗣뗎뗎컒뚼틑헤님탄볤ꎬ컒믡폀풶볇힡헢럝ퟮ뒿헦뗄폑틪ꆣ퓚놾듎싛컄뗄킴ퟷ맽돌훐ꎬ폈웤룐킻벰놦퇞ꎬ쇵쏴ꎬ헅쟙쟙ꆢ짪틣룕춬톧뛔컒뗄냯훺폫횧돖ꆣ?뢸쒸쫇컒튻짺훐ퟮ룐뛷뗄죋ꎬ쯻쏇헢튻놲ퟓ캪컒컞풹컞믚뗄뢶돶ꎬ죋짺뗄쎿튻늽ꎬ뚼뿌폐뢸쒸룸폨컒ퟮ컞쮽뗄낮ꆣ룐킻뢸쒸뛠쓪살캪컒뗄돉뎤뢶돶뗄뻞듳뗄탄톪ꎬ놾죋횻폐볌탸얬솦뫍늻뛏뷸좡ꎬ닅쓜컞삢폚뢸쒸뫍샏쪦뛔컒틳쟐뗄웚췻뫍돏횿뗄맘뮳ꆣ?놾컄쫜떽맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꎨ뇠뫅ꎺ70473054ꎩꆶ맘폚릹붨컒맺짌튵틸탐쓚늿움벶쳥쾵뗄퇐뺿ꆷꆢ맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꎨ뇠뫅ꎺ70873078ꎩꆶ짌튵틸탐닙ퟷ럧쿕룟벶뛈솿램벰맜샭ퟩ횯릹볜퇐뺿ꆷ뫍즽컷쪡ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿ꎨ뇠뫅ꎺ20041008ꎩꆶ틸탐탅폃럧쿕ꆢ쫐뎡럧쿕뫍쇷뚯탔럧쿕ퟛ뫏뛈솿벼쫵퇐뺿ꆷ뗄훺ꆣ퓚듋짮뇭룐킻ꎡ 룐킻퓚냙쎦횮훐돩돶놦맳쪱볤살엺퓄놾컄뗄볒샏쪦ꆣ?룐킻닎뾼컄쿗뗄ퟷ헟쏇ꎬ쯻쏇뗄훇믛폫샍뚯돉맻쫇컒쮼뾼뗄풴좪ꆣ?? 52
뻞퓖놣쿕뗄럧쿕럖즢믺훆벰뻞퓖햮좯뚨볛퇐뺿 릥뛁쮶쪿톧캻웚볤랢뇭뗄싛컄??ꆢ랢뇭뗄싛컄ꎺ?ꆾ1ꆿ 랽폱ꎬ퇮샶ꎮ뻞퓖럧쿕뮥뮻뗄랢햹잰뺰ꎮꆶ뷱죕닆뢻ꆷꎮ2009ꎬ7ꎮP24 ꆾ2ꆿ 퇮샶ꎬ랽폱ꎮ맺볊놾쇷뚯볠맜뗄샭싛ퟛ쫶ꎮꆶ즽컷닆뺭듳톧톧놨ꎨ룟뗈뷌폽냦ꎩꆷꎮ2009ꎬ2ꎮP83 ?ꆢ닎폫떼쪦훷돖뗄뿎쳢ꎺ ꆾ1ꆿ맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꎨ뇠뫅ꎺ70473054ꎩꎺ맘폚릹붨컒맺짌튵틸탐쓚늿움벶쳥쾵뗄퇐뺿ꆣ ꆾ2ꆿ맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꎨ뇠뫅ꎺ70873078ꎩꎺ짌튵틸탐닙ퟷ럧쿕룟벶뛈솿램벰맜샭ퟩ횯릹볜퇐뺿.ꆣ ꆾ3ꆿ즽컷쪡ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿ꎨ뇠뫅ꎺ20041008ꎩꎺ틸탐탅폃럧쿕ꆢ쫐뎡럧쿕뫍쇷뚯탔럧쿕ퟛ뫏뛈솿벼쫵퇐뺿ꆣ ? 53
