1999쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쿃쏅듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ(ퟜ뗚140웚)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡJOURNALOFXIAMENUNIVERSITY(Arts&SocialSciences)ꆡꆡꆡꆡ컒맺막욱쫐뎡놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔볬퇩짲틕럥ꆡ뫩컽컵햪ꆡ튪:놴쯾쾵쫽쫇폃폚뫢솿횤좯쫐뎡쾵춳럧쿕뗄튻룶훘튪룅쓮ꆣ춨맽뛔놴쯾쾵쫽뗄맀볆,춶헟뿉틔풤닢횤좯캴살뗄쫐뎡럧쿕ꆣ떫쫇,놴쯾쾵쫽뇘탫튪폃맽좥뗄쫽뻝살맀볆ꆣ쯹틔,돽럇놴쯾쾵쫽뻟폐쿠뛔뗄컈뚨탔,럱퓲,쯼뻍컞램ퟷ캪횤좯쫐뎡캴살쾵춳럧쿕탔뗄컞욫닮맀볆ꆣ샻폃CHOW볬퇩랽램뛔짮?붻틗쯹붻틗쫽뻝뷸탐쪵횤럖컶,뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚컒맺횤좯쫐뎡짏,컞싛쫇떥룶막욱뮹쫇막욱ퟩ뫏,놴쯾쾵쫽뚼늻뻟컈뚨탔ꆣ헢쮵쏷쒿잰컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄쫐뎡럧쿕쫇뇤뚯늻뚨뫍쓑틔풤닢뗄ꆣ맘볼듊:막욱쫐뎡;놴쯾쾵쫽;쾵춳럧쿕;CHOW볬퇩;컈뚨탔놴쯾쾵쫽쫇쿖듺닆컱샭싛뗄튻룶맘볼룅쓮,튲쫇놾닺뚨볛쒣탍훐ퟮ캪훘튪뗄닎쫽횮튻,훸쏻뗄ꆰ떥튻횸쫽쒣탍ꆱ뻍튪쟳쫂쿈맀볆돶놴쯾쾵쫽ꆣ놴쯾쾵쫽뗄틢틥퓚폚쯼놻맣랺폃폚뫢솿횤좯뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ춨맽뛔놴쯾쾵쫽뗄맀볆,춶헟뿉틔풤닢횤좯쿖퓚믲붫살뗄쾵춳럧쿕탔ꆣ뻍랽램싛뛸퇔,놴쯾쾵쫽폖뇘탫튪듓맽좥횤좯쫐뎡뗄쫕틦싊쫽뻝훐뷸탐맀볆,뛸맽좥뗄쫽뻝맀볆돶살뗄횻쓜쫇맽좥뗄놴쯾쾵쫽ꆣ맽좥뗄놴쯾쾵쫽튪쓜폃폚랴펳쿖퓚믲붫살뗄럧쿕,퓲뇘탫뻟폐튻뚨뗄컈뚨탔닅탐ꆣ틲듋,놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔볬퇩뻍쿔뗃쿠떱뗄훘튪ꆣ튻ꆢ놴쯾쾵쫽뗄뇭쫶벰컈뚨탔볬퇩놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩냼삨솽랽쏦쓚죝:튻쫇놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩;뛾쫇늻컈뚨놴쯾쾵쫽뗄탞헽뫍룄뷸ꆣ놾컄컒쏇훷튪쳖싛놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄볬퇩컊쳢ꆣ볙짨:ꛒ2i캪럧쿕닺i뗄쫕틦싊랽닮,ꛒ2m캪쫐뎡ퟩ뫏쫕틦싊뗄랽닮,ꛒim캪럧쿕닺i뗄쫕틦싊폫쫐뎡ퟩ뫏쫕틦싊횮볤뗄킭랽닮,Ri캪럧쿕닺i뗄쫕틦싊,Rm캪쫐뎡ퟩ뫏뗄쫕틦싊,퓲놴쯾쾵쫽(ꛂ)i뿉릫쪽뮯캪:ꆡꆡꛂꛒ(imCOVRi,Rm)i=ꛒ2=ꆡ1-1VAR(Rim)퓚쿄웕-쇖뗂쓉-쒪짪뗄뇪ힼ놾닺뚨볛쒣탍(CAPM)샯,놴쯾쾵쫽놻쇭췢뇭쫶캪:ꆡꆡE(R)i=RF+ꛂi[E(Rm)-RF]ꆡ1-2웤훐RF캪컞럧쿕쫕틦싊ꆣ힢틢,틔짏헢룶CAPM쒣탍놾짭쫇컞램뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩뗄ꆣ캪쇋죃쯼쓜돉캪튻룶뿉볬퇩뗄쒣탍,뿉틔퓚볙짨쎿튻훖횤좯쫕틦싊폫쫐뎡쫕틦싊듦퓚튻훖쿟탔맘쾵뗄볙짨잰쳡쿂,붫틔짏쒣탍뮯캪CAPM쒣탍뿉볬퇩뗄탎쪽,벴훸쏻뗄ꆰ떥튻횸쫽쒣탍ꆱ:ꆡꆡRi=ꛁi+ꛂiRm+ꛅi1-3늻맽,퓚ꆰ떥튻횸쫽쒣탍ꆱ샯,쯹폐닎쫽(냼삨놴쯾쾵쫽퓚쓚)뚼쫇틔풤웚뗄탎쪽살뇭쪾뗄ꆣꋙ떫ꆤ62ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쪵볊짏,맘폚놴쯾쾵쫽뗄풤웚횵럇뎣쓑틔좷뚨,쯹틔뻸듳늿럖맘폚CAPM쒣탍뗄볬퇩ퟮ훕뚼튪폃쫂뫳(맽좥)뗄맛달횵살쳦듺ꆣ죧듋쟩뿶쿂ꆰ,떥튻횸쫽쒣탍ꆱ뻍뇘좻냼몬튻룶쿠떱훘튪뗄볙짨퓚쓚,벴볙짨놴쯾쾵쫽퓚볬퇩웚볤쓚췪좫쫇컈뚨뗄ꆣ뫜쿔좻,죧맻폃샺쪷쫽뻝볬퇩뗃떽뗄놴쯾쫽뻝늻뻟폐쿠떱뗄컈뚨탔,쓇쯼뻍컞램ퟷ캪캴살놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컞욫닮맀볆ꆣ죧듋,헻룶CAPM뗄샭싛믹뒡뻍믡쫜떽벫듳뗄쳴햽ꆣ뫜뛠톧헟죏쪶떽놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄훘튪틢틥,쯻쏇튲쿈뫳뛔놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔ퟶ맽튻쾵쇐뗄볬퇩,웤훐ퟮ훸쏻뗄쫇샻캬(1971)볬퇩뫍늼슬쒷(1971)볬퇩ꆣ샻캬퇐뺿쇋1960ꆫ1970쓪볤퓚쏀맺얦풼횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐뗄500훖막욱뫳쳡돶,퓚뷏뛌뗄쪱볤뛎쓚(52훜),떥튻막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽쫇쿠떱늻컈뚨뗄ꆣ쿠랴,붫떥훖막욱ퟶ돉ퟩ뫏,퓲ퟩ뫏뗄놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔좴뗃떽쿔훸뗄쳡룟ꆣ뛸쟒,ퟩ뫏뗄맦쒣풽듳,맀볆뗄쪱볤풽뎤,놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔뻍풽룟ꆣ늼슬쒷퓲쫇퇐뺿듓1926쓪1퓂떽1968쓪6퓂쪱볤뛎쓚퓚얦풼횤좯붻틗쯹맒없짏쫐뗄쯹폐막욱ꆣ쯻틔춳볆톧뗄쿠맘럖컶램캪믹뒡,뛔놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔ퟷ쇋짮죫뗄퇐뺿ꆣ웤훷튪뷡싛쫇ꆰ:퓚튻룶웚볤샯맀볆돶살뗄럧쿕쾵쫽(놴쯾쾵쫽)횵뿉쓜횻쫇웤캴살횵뗄욫닮맀볆횵ꆣꆱꋚ맘폚ퟩ뫏뗄맦쒣,춼삳(1981)쳡돶폫샻캬쿠춬뗄맛뗣ꆣ춼삳뛔듓1ꆢ5ꆢ25ꆢ75ꆢ100ꆢ250떽500훐뗄룷샠ퟩ뫏ퟶ맽쿪쾸럖컶,쯻튲죏캪쯦ퟅퟩ뫏맦쒣뗄퓶볓,놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔믡뗃떽벫듳뗄쳡룟,횻쫇ퟩ뫏맦쒣훁짙튪퓚10횻막욱틔짏닅탐ꆣ뛸럑샯(1974)퓲뻵뗃듳풼8훖막욱뗄ퟩ뫏뻍쓜뻟폐쿠떱뗄컈뚨탔쇋ꆣ떫쫇늨쳘뫍틁퓳샕(1975)뗄볬퇩늢늻횧돖춼삳뫍럑샯뗄맛뗣,늨쳘뫍틁퓳샕잿쇒훷헅쮵,놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔늢늻믡쯦ퟅퟩ뫏맦쒣뗄삩듳뛸폐쯹쳡룟ꆣ맘폚맀볆놴쯾쾵쫽뗄쪱볤,냍죻뛻(1974)틔램맺뗄쫽뻝횤쏷,쯦ퟅ맀볆쪱볤뛎뗄퇓뎤,떥룶막욱놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔붫믡퓶잿ꆣ냍죻뛻쯹맀볆뗄쪱볤뛎냼삨듓12룶퓂떽108룶퓂ꆣ죶냍뗂(1981)튲헽좷뗘쳡돶놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔늻뿉쓜쯦맀볆쪱볤뛎뗄늻뛏삭뎤뛸뗃틔컞쟮뺡뗘쳡룟,쯻죏캪ퟮ폅뗄맀볆쪱볤뛎펦룃쫇120룶퓂ꆣ늻맽,싞즭럑뗂ꆢ볓샯엮췐뫍늨럼삭(1978)퓲뻵뗃24ꆢ36믲48룶퓂뗄맀볆쪱볤뻍틑뺭뫜뫃쇋ꆣ쯤좻톧쫵뷧맘폚놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄쿠맘틢볻늻튻,떫컞싛쫇샻캬,뮹쫇늼슬쒷,믲쫇늨쳘뫍틁퓳샕뗈죋,듳뚼닉폃춳볆톧뗄쿠맘럖컶램ꆣ죧샻캬(1971)붫52훜뗄볬퇩쪱볤럖캪솽룶뗈쪱볤뛎(룷26훜),좻뫳볬퇩헢솽룶쪱볤뛎쓚놴쯾쾵쫽횮볤뗄쿠맘쾵쫽ꆣ쯻놨룦쮵,헢솽헟뗄쿠맘쾵쫽캪ꆣ늼슬쒷춬퇹쫇럖컶쿠쇚룷볬퇩쪱볤뛎떥훖막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽,쯻쯹닢뚨뗄쿠맘쾵쫽듓떽늻뗈ꆣ쯤좻쿠맘럖컶램쿠떱쫊뫏ꆰ떥튻횸쫽쒣탍ꆱ,떫룃랽램뗄풭틢뇏뺹횻퓚폚볬퇩솽ퟩ뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠뮥솪쾵,벴솽ퟩ뇤솿춬퓶춬복믲듋퓶뇋복뗄돌뛈ꆣ쿖쪵짏뾴,벴쪹솽ퟩ뇤솿횮볤퓚춳볆짏듦퓚튻뚨돌뛈뗄쿠뮥솪쾵,튲늻쓜릻쮵쏷헢솽헟쫇튻훂뫍컈뚨뗄ꆣ헽죧춼삳(1981)뫳살쯹짮뿌횸돶뗄ꆰ:(쿠맘럖컶램)뷶뷶횻쫇볬퇩쇋쿠뛔뗄컈뚨탔ꆣꆱꋛ돂튲춬퇹뛔폃쿠맘럖컶램살볬퇩놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔뇭쪾뮳틉,쯻붨틩닉폃놴튶쮹랽램살쳦듺ꆣꋜ퓚놾컄샯,컒쏇틢폻쳡돶튻훖뿉틔뿋럾쿠맘럖컶램뻖쿞탔ꆢ쓜폐킧볬퇩놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄랽램,벴ꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱꆣ뛾ꆢCHOW볬퇩램퓚놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩훐뗄퓋폃ꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱ쫇훸쏻쏀벮뮪죋ꆢ쏀맺뇶쾦램쓡퇇듳톧뷌쫚ퟞ훁(,1960)폚ꆤ63ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
1960쓪쳡돶뗄튻훖춳볆볬퇩랽램ꆣ퓚랢뇭폚ꆶ뺭볃볆솿톧ꆷ1960쓪뗚28뻭뗚30웚짏뗄ꆶ솽룶쿟탔믘맩랽돌훐쾵쫽ퟩ횮볤뗈솿탔볬퇩ꆷ튻컄샯ꆰ,떱쒳튻쿟탔믘맩랽돌놻폃폚뇭쪾튻훖뺭볃맘쾵,뺭뎣믡닺짺헢퇹튻룶컊쳢,벴쫇럱룃(뺭볃)맘쾵퓚솽룶쪱볤뛎샯놣돖컈뚨ꆭꆭ뻍춳볆짏뛸퇔,뿉틔춨맽볬퇩솽ퟩ맛달횵쫇럱쓜놻뾴돉쫴폚춬튻룶믘맩쒣탍살믘듰룃컊쳢ꆣꆱꋝퟞ훁폖쮵ꆰ:춨뎣,볙짨솽헟맘쾵췪좫쿠춬쫇뫁컞뺭볃톧뗀샭뗄ꆣ룼캪뫏샭뗄쫇볙짨늿럖맘쾵퓚솽룶늻춬쪱볤뛎믲솽ퟩ샯쿠튻훂ꆭꆭ춳볆짏쮵,컒쏇쫇퓚컊쫇럱솽룶믘맩랽돌샯닎쫽뗄ퟓ벯쿠뗈ꆣꆱꋞ뮻뻤뮰쮵ꆰ,컒쏇뗄컊쳢퓚폚볬퇩M룶탂퓶맛달횵폫잰튻ퟩ퇹놾뗄N룶맛달횵쫇럱쫴폚춬튻룶믘맩맘쾵,틔벰볬퇩솽룶믘맩랽돌닎쫽뗄ퟓ벯쫇럱튻훂ꆣꆱꋟ캪듋,ퟞ훁쳡돶튻훖볬퇩솽룶쿟탔믘맩랽돌훐쾵쫽횮볤뗈솿탔뗄볬퇩랽램,룃랽램뫳살놻톧쫵뷧맣랺돆캪ꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱ틔볍쓮쯼뗄랢쏷죋ꆣꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱ뗄튪뗣죧쿂:퓚튻냣쿟탔볙짨쳵볾쿂,짨:뛔폚춬튻틲뇤솿R듦퓚솽ퟩ쫽뻝,럖뇰냼몬N뫍M룶맛달횵,SSR1뫍SSR2뫍럖뇰캪듓N뫍M룶맛달횵샯맀볆돶뗄믘맩랽돌뗄닐닮욽랽뫍,ퟔ평뛈럖뇰캪N-P뫍M-P,솽룶믘맩랽돌룷ퟔ뗄놴쯾쾵쫽럖뇰캪ꛂ1뫍ꛂ2,ꛂ캪평N+M룶맛달횵맀볆뗄맘폚춬튻틲뇤솿(R)뗄믘맩랽돌뗄놴쯾쾵쫽,SSR캪웤닐닮욽랽뫍,ퟔ평뛈캪N+M-P,퓲(SSR-SSR1-SSR2)/P폫(SSR1+SSR2)Π(N+M-2P)뗄뇈싊펦룃럾듓F(P,N+M-2P)럖늼ꆣ튪볬퇩뗄볙짨쫇:H0ꛂ:1=ꛂ2=ꛂꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ:H1ꛂ:1ꇙꛂ2춳볆솿쫇(SSR-SSR1-SSR2)/P:F=(SSR1+SSR2)/(N+Mꆡ2-1-2P)죴F횵뫜킡,틲뛸H0놻뷓쫜,퓲뇭쏷솽ퟩ맛달횵쫴폚춬튻룶믘맩쒣탍ꆣ짲틕럥(1994)ퟮ퓧냑ꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱ폃폚놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩ꆣ퓚ꆶ짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽맀볆벰웤컈뚨탔볬퇩ꆷ튻컄샯,쯻틔1992쓪6퓂훁1993쓪10퓂캪볬퇩쪱볤뛎,맀볆돶퓚짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐붻틗뗄10훖막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽ꆣ좻뫳,쯻냑볬퇩쪱볤뛎뮮캪솽뗈럖,퓋폃ꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱ뛔쯹맀볆뗄놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ쯻뗄헻룶퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷ꆰ:퓚짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐뗄헢킩막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽,뻸듳뛠쫽뻟폐튻뚨뗄컈뚨탔ꆣꆱꋠ1995쓪7퓂,퓚퇇첫뗘쟸뗚튻뷬뷰죚쓪믡짏,짲틕럥뫍돂샋쓏(1995)퓙듎폃ꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱ볬퇩쇋ퟔ1992쓪6퓂훁1993쓪10퓂볤폚짮?횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐뗄8훖막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ쯻쏇뗄볬퇩뷡맻뇭쏷ꆰ:ꛂ맀볆횵퓚볬퇩웚믹놾짏쫇컈뚨뗄,헢틢캶ퟅ맽좥뗄ꛂ횵냼몬ퟅ뛔캴살ꛂ횵뗄폐폃탅쾢ꆣꆱꋡퟮ뷼뗄퇐뺿냼삨돂훜쏴(1998)뛔짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹30훖막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔쯹ퟶ뗄볬퇩ꆣ쯽췪좫퇘폃짲틕럥뗄ퟶ램ꆣ좻뛸,틔짏뗄퇐뺿쯤좻뛔ꆰCHOW볬퇩램ꆱ퓚놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩짏뗄퓋폃ퟷ쇋돵늽뎢쫔,떫죔폐늻ퟣ횮뒦ꆣ짲틕럥(1994)틔벰짲틕럥뫍돂샋쓏(1995)뗄컄헂샯쯹냼몬뗄퇹놾첫킡ꆣ돂훜쏴(1998)뗄컄헂쯤붫퇹놾훐뗄막욱삩듳떽30훖,떫쯽퓚쫕틦싊볆쯣뒦샭짏폐쏷쿔쪧컳ꆣꋢ춬쪱,틔짏죽욪컄헂뚼뷶뷶볬퇩떥룶막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽,쎻폐뾼싇떽쎿훖막욱ퟷ캪ퟩ뫏쪱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔컊쳢ꆣ뛸쟒쯻쏇뛔폚늻컈뚨뗄놴쯾쾵쫽튲쎻쓜뷸튻늽쳡돶탞헽랽램ꆣ놾컄퓚짏쫶틑폐뗄퇐뺿믹뒡짏,ퟅ훘퓚틔쿂죽룶랽쏦ퟶ돶룄뷸ꆣ쫗쿈,삩듳퇹놾맦쒣,탂뗄쫽뻝뿢냼삨쇋듓1996쓪1퓂1죕떽1996쓪12퓂27죕볤쯹폐퓚짮?횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐뗄127ꆤ64ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
횻막욱ꆣ웤듎,돽떥룶막욱놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄볬퇩,춼삳(1981)ꆢ늨쳘뫍틁퓳샕(1975)틔벰샻캬(1971)뚼죏캪횤좯ퟩ뫏놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔폫떥룶막욱놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔폐늻춬뗄뇭쿖ꆣ쯹틔,퓚놾컄샯컒쏇붫127횻막욱내쯦믺랽램럖뇰ퟩ뫏돉AꆢBꆢCꆢD뫍E컥훖샠탍,웤훐A샠탍냼삨25룶ퟩ뫏,쎿튻ퟩ뫏샯몬5횻막욱,B샠탍냼삨12룶ퟩ뫏,쎿튻ퟩ뫏샯몬10횻막욱,C샠탍냼삨6룶ퟩ뫏,쎿튻ퟩ뫏샯몬20횻막욱,D샠탍냼삨4룶ퟩ뫏,쎿튻ퟩ뫏샯몬30횻막욱,E샠탍냼삨3룶ퟩ뫏,쎿튻ퟩ뫏샯몬40횻막욱ꆣ좻뫳컒쏇퓙뷸튻늽폃CHOW랽램볬퇩룷룶ퟩ뫏놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔ꆣ뗚죽,늻짙톧헟(냍죻뛻,1974;낢쳘싼ꆢ볖삭뫍샮췟쯕뛻,1978)뷔횸돶,볬퇩쪱웚뗄뎤뛌쫇펰쿬놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄훘튪틲쯘횮튻ꆣ캪듋,컒쏇듓127횻막욱샯쯦믺톡돶30횻막욱,좻뫳붫룃30횻막욱뗄볬퇩웚뗄웰쪼뗣쿲잰ힷ쯝떽1995쓪1퓂2죕,춬퇹퓙폃CHOW볬퇩램뾼달놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔퓚퇓뎤뫳뗄웚볤샯뗄뇤뚯쟩뿶ꆣ죽ꆢ컒맺놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄볬퇩뷡맻뇭1뫍뇭2쇐돶컒쏇맘폚놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄훷튪볬퇩뷡맻ꆣλϖ웤훐,뇭1캪떥룶막욱놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄볬퇩뷡맻,뇭2캪횤좯ퟩ뫏놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꆣ퓚5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂,캪쪹풭볙짨H0ꇃꛂ1=ꛂ2=ꛂ돉솢,CHOW볬퇩뗄F횵뇘탫킡폚쇙뷧횵ꆣ뇭1쿔쪾,뛔폚놻볬퇩뗄떥룶막욱뛸퇔,쯹폐막욱뗄F횵뚼듳폚ꆣ헢쮵쏷볙짨H0ꇃꛂ1=ꛂ2=ꛂ늻돉솢,벴솽룶럖웚볤뗄맛달횵늻쫴폚춬튻룶믘맩쒣탍ꆣ믲헟쮵,솽룶웚볤쓚뗄믘맩맘쾵늻뺡튻훂ꆣ헢쪵볊짏뗈폚쮵,솽룶볬퇩웚볤뗄놴쯾쾵쫽늻쿠뗈,떥룶막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽늻뻟폐컈뚨탔ꆣ컒쏇뗄볬퇩뷡싛횧돖쇋맺췢톧쫵뷧뗄웕뇩뾴램ꆰ:ퟷ캪놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔퇐뺿뗄ퟜ뷡,뷡맻죏캪떥룶막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽튻냣쫇늻컈뚨뗄ꆣꆱλω뇭2룸돶컥샠ퟩ뫏뗄CHOW볬퇩뗄F횵ꆣ컞싛쫇5훖믲10훖,뮹쫇20훖믲30훖,짵훁40훖,돽벫룶뇰ퟩ뫏(평짮컯튵ꆢ짮쓏늣ꆢ짮쪯뮯ꆢ짮뮪풴ꆢ짮훐돸ꆢ짮뾵병ꆢ짮훐뮪ꆢ짮훐맚ꆢ짮짮놦뫍짮뮪랢쪮훖막욱릹돉뗄ퟩ뫏)췢,뻸듳늿럖ퟩ뫏CHOW볬퇩뗄F횵뚼듳폚쇙뷧횵ꆣ뷡싛뇭쏷,퓚컒쏇뗄볬퇩샯,벴쪹쫇ퟩ뫏뗄놴쯾쾵쫽,춬퇹늻뻟폐컈뚨탔ꆣ룃뷡싛쿔좻늻횧돖샻캬(1971)뫍늼슬쒷(1971)틔벰춼삳(1981)뗈훷쇷맛뗣ꆣλξ뇭1ꆡ떥룶막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩(F횵)막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵짮랢햹짮돠췥짮쓏맢폥청냗뛵뫯췵잭뾭뗓짮췲뿆짮쳬뗘짮럄횯짂뷢럅쏶쏶뚫쟭쓏퇳짮뷰쳯짮헐룛짮쓏컯훐풪뷲맺짌틸맣쿃짮낲듯짮쳘솦짮훐쟈쯕죽즽퓆냗튩쇉랿쳬짮탇풴량퇇듯뾵듯뛻죘뚯솦퓁뗧솦췲쿲뎱짮헱튵짮쓜풴짮췲즽커럯믋잭훐쳬삥냙듳짮듯짺짮틦솦짮쳬십췮쏀쇢퓁헕쏷짂뎤쇫짮뷵탋짮짮랿뛵커짌냗퓆즽퓁탂뫪탅짮놦낲삳펢듯쟭쓜풴쯫샋웦췮췮태짂맺춶짮뮪탂짮놦뫣쟭몣뫧쯫뚫랽풥냗룫짂쏱짺ꆤ65ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
탸뇭1ꆡ떥룶막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩(F횵)막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵짮컯튵짮즣듯쟭룛냄쓾쳬쇺벪훆튩폥죽쾿짮쓏늣짮탂뚼쟭훩붭쿃몣랢벪쟡릤쟭몣튩짮쪯뮯짮뮪놦뒨퇎뮯퓁쏀뗄쏶뢣랢쟭몣뗂짮뮪풴훐뿆붡퓁뢻뮯맰쇸릤쿦훐틢뒨샏뷑짮훐돸짮믝훐쟭쏱풴퓁쏀퇅쿦믰뻦뒨뎤룖짮뾵병짮쓏뗧뒨쳬루솬듳샤룓붭쇥쯕뎤닱짮훐뮪짮듳춨뒨뷰슷쯫뫣퓋쯕컯쎳탂듳훞짮훐맚짮훐벯쇉컯퓁뮪뗧룊뎤럧쟭뷰엌짮짮놦짮뫨믹퓁샶훩췲볒샖즳쇾듯퓁뫪풶짮뮪랢짮뎤돇폥뾪랢짇뗧솦슳쪯뮯퓁룊뮯짮뿆벼쟠냙맰탂솦뒨뎤헷쫱뚼뚫놱뗧뒨뎤붭뇭2ꆡ룷샠ퟩ뫏뗄놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩(F횵)ퟩ뫏5횻막10횻막20횻막30횻막40횻막쏻돆욱ퟩ뫏욱ퟩ뫏욱ퟩ뫏욱ퟩ뫏욱ퟩ뫏ꆤ66ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ쓇쎴,헢훖뷡싛짏뗄닮틬믡늻믡쫇틲캪컒쏇뗄볬퇩랽램뫍늼슬쒷뗈죋뗄볬퇩랽램늻춬뛸닺짺뗄쓘?틔늼슬쒷볬퇩캪샽,늼슬쒷냑7쓪뗄퓂쫽뻝폃쪱볤탲쇐믘맩랽램뷸탐럖컶,좻뫳퓙럖돉2횻ꆢ4횻ꆢ7횻ꆢ10횻짵훁50횻막욱뗄ퟩ뫏,뻍헢킩ퟩ뫏퓚솽룶늻춬웚볤쓚뗄놴쯾쾵쫽ퟶ뷸튻늽믘맩럖컶ꆣ퓚놾퇐뺿샯,컒쏇튲뎢쫔닉폃늼슬쒷뗄랽램뛔쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶,쯹뗃떽뗄뷡싛뇈뷏죧쿂:뇭3ꆡ늼슬쒷볬퇩뷡맻폫컒쏇뗄볬퇩뷡맻횮뇈뷏늼슬쒷뗄볬퇩뷡맻컒쏇뗄볬퇩뷡맻ퟩ쓚쯹몬막욱쫽쿠맘쾵쫽뿉뻶쾵쫽ퟩ쓚쯹몬막욱쫽쿠맘쾵쫽뿉뻶쾵쫽뇭3뫜쏷쿔뗘뇭쏷,폫늼슬쒷뗄뷡맻늻뺡쿠춬,퓚컒쏇뗄퇹놾쫽뻝샯,돽40횻막욱ퟩ뫏췢,늻춬웚볤샯뗄놴쯾쾵쫽,웤쿠맘쾵쫽뫍뿉뻶쾵쫽뚼뫜킡ꆣ퓚늼슬쒷뗄볬퇩뷡맻샯,쿠맘쾵쫽뫍뿉뻶쾵쫽뚼쯦ퟅퟩ뫏맦쒣뗄삩듳뛸쿔훸뗘쳡룟ꆣ떫퓚컒쏇뗄볬퇩샯,컞램뗃떽샠쯆뗄뷡맻,쯦ퟅퟩ뫏맦쒣뗄삩듳,컞싛쫇쿠맘쾵쫽뮹쫇뿉뻶쾵쫽뚼뇤뚯늻뚨ꆣ헢쮵쏷컒쏇뗄볬퇩뷡맻폫늼슬쒷뗄폐쪵훊짏뗄늻춬ꆣ뛸뛔폚40횻막욱ퟩ뫏,컒쏇뷶쓜뗃떽죽룶ퟩ뫏,벴뷶폐죽ퟩ놴쯾쾵쫽뗄쫽뻝,퇹놾쫽첫킡,컒쏇늻쓜뿏뚨뷡싛뗄폐킧탔ꆣ뇈뷏뷡맻횤쏷,컒쏇폫늼슬쒷퓚뷡싛짏뗄늻춬늻쫇틲캪볬퇩랽램짏뗄늻춬쯹퓬돉뗄ꆣ뇭4ꆡ볬퇩쪱웚삩햹뫳퇹놾뗄놴쯾쾵쫽컈뚨탔볬퇩(F횵)막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵막욱쏻돆F횵짮랢햹짮헱튵짮쓏늣짮훐뮪짮돠췥짮쓜풴짮췲뿆짮듯짹짮쪯뮯짮훐맚짮쳬뗘짮틦솦짮뷰쳯짮뷵탋짮뮪풴짮짮놦짮헐룛짮짮랿짮낲듯짮놦낲짮훐돸짮뮪랢짮쳘솦삳펢듯짮탇풴짮컯튵짮뾵병짮뿆벼량퇇듯짮놦뫣ꆤ67ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ퓚뇭4샯,컒쏇듓헻룶퇹놾뿢쯦믺톡돶30횻막욱,냑쯼쏇뗄볬퇩쪱웚삩햹떽듓1995쓪1퓂2죕뾪쪼,좻뫳틔1995쓪뫍1996쓪뮮캪솽룶웚볤,춬퇹ퟶCHOW볬퇩,쒿뗄퓚폚퇩횤냍죻뛻(1974)ꆢ낢쳘싼ꆢ볖삭뫍샮췟쯕뛻(1978)뗈톧헟뗄퇐뺿뷡싛ꆣ헢엺톧헟죏캪,쯦ퟅ볬퇩웚볤뗄퇓뎤,떥횻막욱놴쯾쾵쫽뗄컈뚨탔붫믡쳡룟ꆣ뇭4룸돶쇋헢랽쏦뗄볬퇩뷡맻,뺡맜볬퇩쪱볤퇓뎤쇋,떫뻍뷓쫜볬퇩뗄쎿횻막욱살쮵,웤F횵좫뚼듳폚쇙뷧횵ꆣ헢쮵쏷퓚5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂,볙짨죔늻쓜돉솢,솽룶럖쪱웚뗄맛달횵죔좻늻뻟놸춬튻훖믘맩맘쾵ꆣ뷡맻쮵쏷,벴쪹볬퇩쪱웚퓙퇓뎤,떥훖막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽뮹쫇늻뻟폐컈뚨탔ꆣퟜ뛸퇔횮,춨맽CHOW볬퇩랽램뛔짮?횤좯붻틗쯹1996쓪뛈쯹폐짏쫐릫쮾막욱퇹놾쫽뻝뗄럖컶뇭쏷,컞싛쫇떥룶막욱믲쫇막욱ퟩ뫏,놴쯾쾵쫽뚼늻뻟놸컈뚨탔ꆣ뫢솿쫐뎡쾵춳럧쿕뗄놴쯾쾵쫽뗄늻컈뚨탔쮵쏷쒿잰컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄쾵춳럧쿕쫇뇤뚯늻뚨뗄,틔맽좥웚볤뗄쫽뻝맀볆돶살뗄놴쯾쾵쫽횵컞램듺뇭캴살뗄놴쯾쾵쫽횵,헢튲쮵쏷쒿잰컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄쾵춳럧쿕쓑틔풤닢ꆣ힢:ꋙꋚ늼슬쒷냑ꆰ떥튻횸쫽쒣탍ꆱ돆캪놴쯾쾵쫽뗄뻹뫢뇭쫶랽쪽,냑잰쫶쇭췢튻훖랽쪽돆캪ퟩ뫏뇭쫶랽쪽ꆣ볻늼슬쒷ꆶ:싛럧쿕뗄뫢솿ꆷꆶ,닆컱톧뾯ꆷ뗚XXVI뻭,1971쓪뗚1웚,뗚2ꆫ3ꆢ8튳ꆣꋛ춼삳ꆶ:죧뫎죃놴쯾뗄컈뚨탔ퟮ듳ꆷꆶ,ퟩ뫏맜샭톧뾯ꆷ뗚7뻭,1981쓪뗚2웚,뗚45ꆫ49튳ꆣꋜ볻돂(쯉쓏)ꆶ:놴쯾늻컈뚨탔,ퟩ뫏닐닮럧쿕벰웤럖즢뮯ꆷꆶ,닆컱폫쫽솿럖컶톧뾯ꆷ뗚16뻭,1981쓪뗚1웚,뗚95ꆫ111튳ꆣꋝꋞꋟퟞ훁ꆶ:솽룶쿟탔믘맩랽돌훐쾵쫽ퟩ횮볤뗈솿탔볬퇩ꆷꆶ,뺭볃볆솿톧ꆷ뗚28뻭,1960쓪뗚3웚,뗚591ꆢ591ꆢ592튳ꆣꋠ짲틕럥ꆶ:짏몣횤좯붻틗쯹짏쫐막욱뗄놴쯾쾵쫽맀볆벰웤컈뚨탔볬퇩ꆷꆶ,뿧풽쪱뿕뗄첽쯷ꆷ,쿃쏅듳톧돶냦짧1994쓪냦,뗚38ꆫ46튳ꆣꋡ짲틕럥ꆢ돂샋쓏ꆶ:짮?막욱붻틗쫐뎡뗄ꛂ횵벰웤컈뚨탔움맀ꆷꆶ,탅쾢쪱듺뗄탂맜샭뗤랶ꆷ,뮪훐샭릤듳톧돶냦짧1995쓪냦,뗚111ꆫ116튳ꆣꋢ퓚돂훜쏴뗄싛컄듰뇧믡짏,늻짙톧헟뛔돂훜쏴퓚싛컄훐닉폃뗄쫕틦싊볆쯣랽램쳡돶엺움ꆣ떱쪱뗄듰뇧캯풱믡돉풱쫇컢쫀얩ꆢ컌뻽?ꆢ짲틕럥ꆢ돂샋쓏뗈죋ꆣλϖ쿞폚욪럹,룷뇭훐횻룸돶볬퇩뷡맻뗄룅튪ꆣퟷ헟풸틢캪폐탋좤믲폐틉컊뗄뛁헟쳡릩좫늿쪵횤뗄쇏폫뷡맻ꆣλω볻삳샻ꆶ:춶럖컶폫ퟩ뫏맜샭ꆷ,CBS듳톧돶냦짧1985쓪냦,뗚30튳;쿄웕ꆶ:춶톧ꆷ,PRENTICEHALL돶냦짧1990쓪냦ꆣλξ늻맽좴폫늨쳘뫍틁퓳샕(1975쓪)뗄싛뗣쿠럻뫏ꆣ볻늨쳘뫍틁퓳샕ꆶ:맘폚놴쯾쾵쫽풤닢쓜솦뗄튻쿮힢쫍ꆷ,퓘ꆶ짌튵퇐뺿톧뾯ꆷ뗚3뻭,1975쓪뗚4웚,뗚365ꆫ372튳ꆣퟷ헟:쿃쏅듳톧릤짌맜샭톧풺뢱뷌쫚ꆡꆡ퓰죎뇠벭:짲킡늨ꆤ68ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
:fossilmammals,changeofseaandland,relationshipbetweenTaiwanandthemainlandTwoTthypesofScientificActivitiesintheMay4MovementandTheirSignificanceByXuHuiAbstract:,twotypesofscientificactivitiesappearedinChina,.,,,ꆯ:theMay4NewCulturalMovement,scientificsystematization,scientificactivitiesAnalysesofaSeriesofCountermeasurestoIncreaseDomesticConsump2tionByLinQingguoandZhengMinAbstract:,,,theauthoritiesmustdeepenthereformoftheeconomicsystem,:stimulus,domesticconsumption,aseriesofcountermeasuresTheTestoftheStabilityofBetainChinaꆯsStockMarketByShenYifengandHongXixiAbstract:Asoneoftheimportantconceptsinthecapitalmarket,,,itcannotbeappliedtotheestimateofthefuturerisk;ꆯ:stockmarket,beta,systematicrisk,CHOWTestApproach,stabilityꆤ125ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
