ꆡFinance&TradeEconomics,No12,2010싛싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭쒣탍뗄릹붨3헂킡욽ꆡ죎엥ꆡ뗋맳욽ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:싃폎뺰쟸캣믺뻟폐웕뇩탔뫍벫듳뗄웆뮵탔ꆣ캪폐킧뇜쏢캣믺뗄랢짺,붵뗍캣믺뛔뺰쟸퓬돉뗄웆뮵,싃폎뺰쟸펦캴폪돱,볓잿캣믺맜샭ꆣ놾컄퓚ퟛ쫶싃폎캣믺맜샭쿠맘퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏,퓋폃뢴퓓탔뿆톧샭싛뷢뛁캣믺뗄돉틲벰웤퇝뇤맽돌,붫싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭뮮럖캪캣믺잰ꆢ캣믺뫍캣믺뫳죽룶뷗뛎,늢퓚듋믹뒡짏쳡돶쇋싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭5R쒣탍ꆣ맘볼듊:캣믺맜샭ꆡ뢴퓓탔뿆톧ꆡ5R쒣탍ꆡ싃폎뺰쟸ퟷ헟볲뷩:헂킡욽,쯄뒨듳톧릤짌맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,610064;죎엥,쯄뒨듳톧릤짌맜샭톧풺뷌쫚ꆢ늩쪿,610064;뗋맳욽,돉뚼샭릤듳톧뗘쟲뿆톧톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,610059ꆣ훐춼럖샠뫅:F59017ꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-8102(2010)02-0130-06떱뷱좫쟲룷훖캣믺돊짏짽쟷쫆,폈웤쫇뷼쓪살랢짺뗄ꆰ5112ꆱ뒨뗘헰ꆢ좫쟲뷰죚캣믺ꆢ볗탍H1N1쇷룐ꆢ탂붮ꆰ715쫂볾ꆱ뗈캣믺쫂볾뛔싃폎튵퓬돉쇋뻞듳돥믷,쪹컒맺뛠룶싃폎뺰쟸퓢쫜훘듳쯰쪧ꆣ캣믺뻟폐웕뇩탔뫍벫듳뗄웆뮵탔,쎻폐튻룶싃폎뺰쟸쓜릻탒쏢,캣믺맜샭쫇싃폎뺰쟸맜샭뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ싃폎뺰쟸쫇튻룶뢴퓓뻞쾵춳,쯹쏦쇙뗄캣믺럇뎣뢴퓓,뛸떱잰뛔싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭뗄듳뛠쫽퇐뺿횻춣쇴퓚뇭쏦,좱랦뛔캣믺돉틲뫍퇝뇤맽돌뷸탐짮죫첽쳖뫍듓쪵볹뗄뷇뛈뛔캣믺맜샭쒣탍뗄릹붨ꆣ캪쇋폐킧뇜쏢캣믺뗄랢짺믲붵뗍캣믺뛔싃폎뺰쟸퓬돉뗄쯰쪧,폐뇘튪퓋폃뢴퓓탔뿆톧뗄샭싛뫍랽램퇐뺿캣믺뗄돉틲뫍퇝뇤맽돌,릹붨캣믺맜샭쒣탍,캪싃폎뺰쟸폐킧펦뛔캣믺ꆢ쪵쿖붡뾵폐탲랢햹쳡릩뷨본ꆣ튻ꆢ퇐뺿ퟛ쫶맺췢뗄싃폎캣믺맜샭퇐뺿탋웰폚20쫀볍70쓪듺,훷튪퇐뺿틲뿖닀훷틥ꆢ햽헹ꆢ헾훎늻컈뚨ꆢ랸ퟯꆢퟔ좻퓖몦뗈쯹떼훂뗄캣믺쫂볾뛔싃폎튵뗄펰쿬,늿럖톧헟뮹뛔싃폎캣믺맜샭쓚죝ꆢ캣믺맜샭뿲볜뷸탐쇋첽쳖ꆣ듋췢,톧쫵뷧뮹뻍싃폎캣믺맜샭쿠맘쓚죝헙뾪쳢믡틩뷸탐퇐쳖,샽죧:1995쓪퓚죰뗤헙뾪쇋쳢캪ꆰ죈뗣뮰쳢:싃폎낲좫폫럧쿕ꆱ뗄맺볊믡틩;1997쓪퓚뿋싞뗘퇇헙뾪쇋쳢캪ꆰ햽헹ꆢ뿖닀훷틥폫싃폎캣믺쪱듺벰웤믖뢴ꆱ뗄맺볊믡틩ꆣ2003쓪쫀뷧싃폎ퟩ횯랢늼쇋ꆶ싃폎튵캣믺맜샭횸쓏ꆷ,뛔캣믺잰ꆢ캣믺훐틔벰캣믺뫳뗄탅쾢릵춨ꆢ탻뒫듙쿺ꆢ낲좫놣헏벰쫐뎡퇐뺿쳡돶쇋횸떼탔틢볻ꆣ맺쓚싃폎캣믺맜샭퇐뺿돉맻훷튪쳥쿖퓚:뗋뇹뗈(2004)뛔맺쓚췢싃폎튵캣믺맜샭퇐뺿뷸탐쇋ퟛ쫶;싞쏀뻪뗈(2008)듓늻춬뷇뛈뛔캣믺샠탍뷸탐쇋뮮럖,늢뛔늻춬샠탍캣믺뗄쳘헷뷸탐쇋뇈뷏럖컶;훜뻪(2005)뛔싃폎캣믺퇝뇤뷗뛎뫍펰쿬믺훆뷸탐쇋첽쳖;틼쎷뗈(2005)뛔쒿뗄뗘싃폎튵쫜캣믺쫂볾펰쿬뗄믺샭뷸탐쇋럖컶,짨볆쇋싃폎캣믺뻶닟솴,릹붨쇋싃폎캣믺맜샭햽싔뿲볜;퇮탋훹(2004)듓쾵춳퓋뚯뗄뷇뛈잳컶쇋싃폎쾵춳퇝뮯뇤틬뗄췢늿틲ퟓ,첽컶쇋싃폎캣믺맜샭뗄튻냣랶쪽;3놾컄뗃떽863훘듳뿎쳢쿮쒿(뇠뫅:2008AA04A107)뗄훺ꆣ130' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2010쓪뗚2웚ꆡ뫮맺쇖(2005)퓚럖컶싃폎캣믺뗄샠탍ꆢ펰쿬쓚죝ꆢ펰쿬랶캧뫍펰쿬믺훆뗄믹뒡짏뒴붨쇋싃폎캣믺맜샭쒣탍ꆣퟛ짏쯹쫶,맺쓚췢톧헟훷튪쫇듓뫪맛뷇뛈뛔싃폎닺튵캣믺뷸탐퇐뺿,헫뛔뻟쳥뺰쟸뗄퇐뺿뷏짙,폈웤쫇뛔싃폎뺰쟸캣믺뗄돉틲믺훆뫍캣믺맜샭쒣탍첽쳖뫜짙ꆣ떫싃폎뺰쟸쫇싃폎닺튵뗄뫋탄,웤캣믺맜샭쮮욽늻뷶펰쿬뺰쟸뗄뿉돖탸랢햹뮹믡뛔헻룶싃폎닺튵뗄랢햹닺짺훘튪펰쿬ꆣ뛾ꆢ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺룅쓮벰웤펰쿬(튻)싃폎뺰쟸캣믺룅쓮펢컄캤늮듇뗤냑캣믺뚨틥캪폐뿉쓜뇤뫃믲뇤뮵뗄헛뗣믲맘볼쪱뿌ꆣ싞즭쯾뛻(Rosenthal)뗈죋죏캪,캣믺뻍쫇뛔튻룶짧믡쾵춳뗄믹놾볛횵뫍탐캪ힼ퓲볜릹닺짺퇏훘췾킲,늢쟒퓚쪱볤톹솦뫍늻좷뚨탔벫룟뗄쟩뿶쿂,뇘탫뛔웤ퟶ돶맘볼뻶닟뗄쫂볾ꆣ냍뛙(Barton)룸돶뗄캣믺뚨틥캪:캣믺쫇튻룶믡틽웰잱퓚뢺쏦펰쿬뗄뻟폐늻좷뚨탔뗄듳쫂볾,헢훖쫂볾벰웤뫳맻뿉쓜뛔ퟩ횯벰웤죋풱ꆢ닺욷ꆢ럾컱ꆢ닺뫍짹폾퓬돉뻞듳쯰몦ꆣ쫀뷧싃폎ퟩ횯(WTO)냑싃폎캣믺닻쫶캪:펰쿬싃탐헟뛔튻룶쒿뗄뗘뗄탅탄늢죅싒볌탸헽뎣뺭펪뗄럇풤웚탔쫂볾ꆣ돂컄뻼(2005)붫싃폎뺰쟸캣믺뚨틥캪죎뫎캣벰뺰쟸뺭펪쒿뇪뗄쫂쟩뫍쫂볾,훂쪹뺰쟸뒦폚튻훖늻컈뚨ힴ첬,췾킲뺰쟸쒿뇪뗄쪵쿖ꆣퟛ뫏틔짏룅쓮,뇊헟죏캪싃폎뺰쟸캣믺쫇횸뛔쏱훚(폎뿍ꆢ뻓쏱뫍웤쯻샻틦쿠맘헟)뗄짺쏼닆닺ꆢ풴뮷뺳ꆢ뺰쟸헽뎣뗄맜샭믮뚯믲짧믡뗄믹놾훈탲퓬돉뻞듳쯰몦뗄춻랢탔쫂볾ꆣ냑컕싃폎뺰쟸캣믺룅쓮쪱뮹탨튪힢틢폫춻랢탔쫂볾뗄쟸뇰:춻랢탔쫂볾늻튻뚨쫇캣믺,떫캣믺튻뚨쫇춻랢탔쫂볾;춻랢탔쫂볾뛔뺰쟸뿉쓜퓬돉튻뚨쯰쪧,떫뛔뺰쟸헻쳥샻틦뮹캴릹돉췾킲,떫춻랢탔쫂볾뒦샭늻떱,뫜죝틗춻뇤캪ퟨ낭뺰쟸랢햹뗄캣믺ꆣ(뛾)캣믺쫂볾뛔싃폎뺰쟸랢햹뗄펰쿬싃폎캣믺샠탍뢴퓓뛠퇹,뫮맺쇖(2005)붫평춻랢뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦(냼삨믰즽놬랢ꆢ뗘헰ꆢ쓠쪯쇷ꆢ뫩쮮ꆢ몣킥ꆢ컁틟뗈)ꆢ뺭볃뚯떴폫뺭볃캣믺믲짧믡뚯떴뗈쫂볾뮮맩캪놳뺰탍캣믺,붫퓚싃폎뗄쪳ꆢ힡ꆢ탐ꆢ폎ꆢ릺ꆢ폩쇹듳믮뚯맽돌훐쯹랢짺뗄룸싃폎튵퓬돉뻞듳쯰쪧뗄럇풤볻탔쫂볾뚨틥캪쓚퓚탍캣믺ꆣ평폚싃폎튵뻟폐쏴룐탔,컞싛쫇놳뺰탍싃폎캣믺뮹쫇쓚퓚탍싃폎캣믺뚼뿉쓜뛔싃폎튵뗄돖탸랢햹퓬돉뻞듳헏낭ꆣ캣믺쫂볾뛔싃폎뺰쟸뗄펰쿬튲쫇뛠랽쏦뗄:쯼쏇뿉쓜쪹뺰쟸쓚뗄폎뿍죋짭쫜떽짋몦믲닆닺퓢쫜쯰쪧,튲뿉쓜떼훂싃폎풴믲싃폎짨쪩놻웆뮵,쯼쏇튲죝틗쪹싃폎뺰쟸퓚폎뿍믲잱퓚폎뿍탄쒿훐뗄탎쿳쫜쯰,잱퓚폎뿍튲뿉쓜틲낲좫풭틲ꆢ돶폎솦쿂붵믲탎쿳죏횪뛈붵뗍뗈풭틲좡쿻믲룄뇤쯻쏇뗄싃폎볆뮮,듓뛸뿍쇷뾪쪼복짙,싃폎뺰쟸뗄헽뎣뺭펪쫜떽펰쿬ꆣ뷓쿂살내헕뿍쇷ꆪ컯쇷ꆪ뷰쇷뗄쿠볌복짙쮳탲튻늽늽쿷죵뺭볃믮뚯뗄욵싊,싃폎닺튵솴쳵튲죝틗놻쮺쇑,ퟮ훕쪹싃폎뺰쟸쯹퓚뗘뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쫜떽틖훆ꆣ죽ꆢ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺뗄돉틲뫍퇝뇤맽돌싃폎뺰쟸쫇뾪럅뗄뢴퓓뻞쾵춳,닣듎뷡릹뢴퓓,평뛠룶ퟓ쾵춳릹돉,뻟폐럇쿟탔ꆢ췢늿죅뚯ꆢ뷡릹뫍닎쫽늻좷뚨탔뗈쳘탔ꆣ캣믺쫇뢴퓓뗄춻뇤쿖쿳,뻟폐룟뛈뗄늻좷뚨탔,웤랢짺뫍퇝뇤맽돌튲럇뎣뢴퓓ꆣ캪쪲쎴믡랢짺캣믺?캣믺쫇퓵퇹퇝뇤뗄?얣컄풪뫍쳆쫋뻼럖뇰듓짧믡좼징샭싛뫍샭싛뛔헢킩컊쳢ퟶ돶쇋뷢듰ꆣ얣컄풪죏캪,캣믺쫂볾뗄랢짺쪵볊짏쫇짧믡쾵춳평폐탲쿲컞탲랢햹,듓룟훈탲쿲뗍훈탲췋뮯,듓돵쪼ힴ첬솿뇤떽뫳탸뗄훊뇤,ퟮ뫳놬랢춻랢탔캣믺쫂볾뗄맽돌ꆣ쳆쫋뻼죏캪,캣믺ힴ첬뻍쫇럇죈솦톧ퟜ뇤횵캪헽,짧믡쾵춳뗄믬싒뛈퓶볓ힴ첬;캣믺맜샭뻍쫇뺡솿붵뗍횵,솦헹헽캪뢺,듓뛸복짙짧믡쾵춳뗄믬싒뛈ꆣ늻쓑뾴돶,쯻쏇뚼쫔춼듓뢴퓓탔뿆톧뷢뛁캣131' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡFinance&TradeEconomics,No12,2010믺뗄돉틲뫍퇝뇤맽돌,떫뛔뎣첬쫂볾ꆢ춻랢탔쫂볾뫍캣믺죽헟횮볤쿠뮥뮯맘쾵닻쫶늻릻ꆣ뢴퓓탔뿆톧쫇퇐뺿뢴퓓탔폫뢴퓓쾵춳훐룷ퟩ돉늿럖횮볤쿠뮥ퟷ폃쯹펿쿖돶뗄뢴퓓탐캪ꆢ쳘탔폫맦싉뗄뿆톧(샮쪿폂,2006)ꆣ듓랽램싛뷇뛈뾴,뢴퓓탔뿆톧쫇쪹폃럇뮹풭싛랽램퇐뺿뢴퓓쿖쿳뗄뿆톧(믆타죙,2007)ꆣ캪쇋뷒쪾싃폎뺰쟸캣믺돉틲ꆢ퇝뇤맽돌벰웤뢴퓓믺샭,컒쏇퓚잰죋퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏퓋폃뢴퓓뿆톧뗄샭싛뫍퇐뺿랽램뷸튻늽뛔웤뷸탐쇋퇐뺿(닎볻춼1)ꆣ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺튻냣쫇평춻랢탔쫂볾틽웰,죧맻춻랢탔쫂볾뗃떽폐킧뒦샭,뻍늻믡뮯캪캣믺,죧맻춻랢탔쫂볾쎻폐뗃떽폐킧뒦샭,뻍믡랢햹캪폐뿉쓜뛔뺰쟸퓬돉뻞듳쯰쪧뗄캣믺ꆣ캣믺튲뿉쓜평뎣첬쫂볾횱뷓춻뇤탎돉ꆣ춻랢탔쫂볾쫇뎣첬쫂볾랢짺춻뇤,쪹쾵춳쪧좥욽뫢첬,횵늻뛏퓶볓,쾵춳평폐탲쿲춼컞탲랢햹,헢쪱쾵춳춨맽뫍췢뷧뮷뺳뷸탐컯1ꆡ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺돉틲벰웤퇝뇤맽돌훊ꆢ쓜솿뫍탅쾢붻뮻믱뗃뢺,죧맻퓶볓뗄뢺듳폚뗈폚퓶볓뗄헽,쾵춳평컞탲쿲폐탲뮯,쾵춳훘탂믘떽욽뫢첬,춻랢탔쫂볾뗃떽폐킧뒦샭ꆣ죧맻쾵춳헽듳폚뢺퓶뎤솿,춻랢탔쫂볾뻍믡뺭퓙듎춻뇤믲뛠듎춻뇤탎돉캣믺ꆣ캣믺랢짺뫳,뺰쟸쾵춳뒦폚믬ힴ첬,룟뛈컞탲ꆣ쾵춳뿉틔춨맽뷸튻늽폫췢뷧뷸탐컯훊ꆢ쓜솿뫍탅쾢붻뮻퓶볓쾵춳뢺,퓚ퟔퟩ횯뫍쯻ퟩ횯ퟷ폃쿂탎돉뫄즢뷡릹,퓙듎듓믬ힴ첬뇤캪튻훖쪱볤ꆢ뿕볤뫍릦쓜뫪맛폐탲뗄ힴ첬,쾵춳훘믘욽뫢첬,듓뛸캣믺뗃떽폐킧뿘훆ꆣ쯄ꆢ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭쒣탍릹붨(튻)싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭뗄뷗뛎뮮럖싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭쫇횸뺰쟸맜샭늿쏅캪쇋뇜쏢믲붵뗍캣믺랢짺믺싊ꆢ복쟡캣믺뛔릫훚뗄짺쏼닆닺뫍풴뮷뺳뗈퓬돉웆뮵뛸뛔캣믺뷸탐맜샭뗄맽돌ꆣ싃폎튵뇈뷏쏴룐,뛔쫐뎡룟뛈틀삵,틗쫜캣믺쫂볾돥믷ꆣ싃폎닺튵쓚늿쿠뮥맘솪탔듳,캣믺뛔싃폎뺰쟸퓬돉뗄펰쿬틗퓚탐튵쓚뒫뗝럅듳ꆣ퓚싃폎랢햹맽돌훐,쏦뛔캣믺웕뇩듦퓚쟒웆뮵탔벫듳,싃폎뺰쟸맜샭늿쏅펦룃캴폪돱,쫷솢캣믺틢쪶,볓잿캣믺맜샭,랽쓜ퟶ떽폐놸컞뮼,쪵쿖뺰쟸뗄뿉돖탸랢햹ꆣ캪쇋폐킧맜샭캣믺,튻킩ퟩ횯믺릹뫍톧헟룹뻝캣믺뗄짺쏼훜웚뛔캣믺맜샭뷸탐쇋뷗뛎뮮럖ꆣ샽죧:쏀맺솪냮낲좫맜샭캯풱믡뛔웤뮮럖캪복뮺ꆢ풤럀ꆢ랴펦뫍믖뢴쯄뷗뛎;늮웦(Brich)뫍맅쮹(Guth)뗈냑캣믺맜샭럖돉캣믺잰ꆢ캣믺뫍캣믺뫳죽룶뷗뛎;럒뿋(Frink)틽폃튽톧쫵폯붫캣믺뮮럖캪헷헗웚ꆢ랢ퟷ웚ꆢ퇓탸웚뫍좬폺웚쯄뷗뛎;쏗쳘싞럲(Mitroff)붫캣믺맜샭럖돉탅뫅헬닢ꆢ첽닢뫍풤럀ꆢ뿘훆쯰몦ꆢ믖뢴뫍톧쾰컥룶뷗뛎ꆣ캪쇋뇣폚닙ퟷ뫍샭뷢,컒쏇듓뫪맛짏붫싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭럖캪캣믺잰,캣믺훐,캣믺뫳죽룶뷗뛎,쎿튻뷗뛎퓙럖캪늻춬ퟓ뷗뛎(닎볻춼2)ꆣ1.캣믺잰(Pre2crisis)ꆣ룃뷗뛎캣믺맜샭듫쪩평복짙뫍풤놸릹돉ꆣ복짙뷗뛎쫴폚싃폎뺰쟸뎣맦맜샭,춻랢쫂볾뾪쪼쏈톿,뛔싃폎뺰쟸캣몦돌뛈뷏뗍ꆣ춻랢쫂볾퓚풤놸뷗뛎뷸튻늽퓍쓰,늢틑훰붥뾪쪼쿲캣믺쫂볾뮯,뛔싃폎뺰쟸뗄캣몦돌뛈튲훰붥짽룟ꆣ2.캣믺(Crisis)ꆣ룃뷗뛎캣믺맜샭듫쪩평랴펦뫍믖뢴릹돉ꆣ룃쪱웚춻랢쫂볾톸쯙춻뇤캪캣믺쫂볾,뛔싃폎뺰쟸뗄캣몦돌뛈톸쯙퓶볓,췹췹뛔싃폎뺰쟸퓬돉뻞듳쯰쪧ꆣ싃폎뺰쟸뛔캣믺쫂볾헽좷뗄랴펦뿉틔붵뗍캣믺뗄캣몦돌뛈,튻뚨돌뛈짏복짙죋풱짋췶뫍닆닺쯰쪧ꆣ믖뢴쫇횸뺰쟸탞뢴풴ꆢ믹뒡짨132' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2010쓪뗚2웚ꆡ쪩뫍훘쯜뺰쟸탎쿳뗈,쪹뺰쟸믖뢴헽뎣퓋ꆣ퓚믖뢴뷗뛎,캣믺쫂볾뗄캣몦돌뛈뷸튻늽붵뗍ꆣ3.캣믺뫳(Post2crisis)ꆣ룃뷗뛎캣믺쫂볾틑뺭뗃떽췪좫뷢뻶,쫴폚믘맋ꆢퟜ뷡쳡짽뷗뛎ꆣ캣믺쫂볾뗄췗짆뷢뻶,뺰쟸탎쿳퓚폎뿍탄쒿훐뗃떽쳡짽ꆣ춨맽ퟜ뷡믘맋,싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭쮮욽뗃떽쳡룟,듋듎캣믺쫂볾튲돉쇋췆뚯뺰쟸돖탸랢햹뗄풪쯘ꆣ(뛾)싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭쒣탍뗄릹붨붨쒣쫇퇐뺿뢴퓓쿖쿳뗄훘튪랽램,춨맽붨쒣쓜릻춼뷒쪾뢴퓓쿖쿳돉틲,풤닢웤퇝뇤랽쿲,듓뛸캪펦뛔뢴퓓2ꆡ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭뷗뛎뮮럖쿖쿳쳡릩틀뻝ꆣ싃폎뺰쟸샠탍뛠퇹,쏦쇙뗄캣믺튲쫇잧뇤췲뮯,떫캣믺맜샭닟싔뻟폐쿠춬탔믲샠쯆탔ꆣ붨쒣쓜릻뷒쪾캣믺뗄놾훊맦싉,냯훺싃폎뺰쟸폐킧펦뛔캣믺ꆣ맺췢틑폐튻킩톧헟릹붨쇋캣믺맜샭쒣탍,샽죧싞늮쳘ꆤ컷쮹(RobertHeath)쳡돶쇋캣믺맜샭뗄4R쒣탍:복짙(Reduction)ꆢힼ놸(Readiness)ꆢ랴펦(Response)ꆢ믖뢴(Recovery)ꆣ룃쒣탍퓚캣믺랢짺ꆢ랢햹뗄쎿튻뷗뛎훆뚨돶쇋쿠펦뗄햽싔,떫뫶쫓쇋캣믺쫂볾튲뿉틔캪ퟩ횯랢햹듸살믺폶ꆣ싃폎뺰쟸퓚뺭샺캣믺뫳,뿉틔춨맽죏헦ퟜ뷡,쳡룟캣믺맜샭쮮욽,뇤췾킲캪믺폶ꆣFaulkner(2001)붨솢쇋튻룶폃살럖컶뫍훆뚨싃폎퓖쓑맜샭닟싔뗄튻냣쒣탍,룃쒣탍평퓖쓑맽돌뷗뛎ꆢ퓖쓑맜샭랴펦풪쯘ꆢ퓖쓑맜샭닟싔뗄훷튪쳘헷죽늿럖릹돉,냼삨튻쾵쇐폐킧뗄싃폎퓖쓑맜샭볆뮮뗄쿈뻶쳵볾뫍풭퓲,춬쪱,Faulkner뫍Vikulov(2001)뮹틔냄듳샻퇇Katherine캪샽살볬퇩뫍늹돤췪짆쇋헢튻쒣탍,떫쒣탍쓚죝뢴퓓,늢쟒훷튪쫇헫뛔싃폎닺튵,뛔싃폎뺰쟸횸떼틢틥늻듳ꆣ컒맺톧헟뫮맺쇖튲릹붨쇋싃폎캣믺맜샭쒣탍,룹뻝캣믺퇝뇤늻춬뷗뛎훆뚨쇋늻춬뗄맜샭듫쪩뫍뛔닟,떫룃쒣탍튲쫇헫뛔싃폎닺튵,짦벰뛠룶맜샭훷쳥,싃폎뺰쟸튪쿫틀뾿룃쒣탍뷸탐캣믺맜샭뮹탨뛔쒣탍ퟶ뗷헻ꆣ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺뗄탎돉ꆢ퇝뇤틔벰뗃떽뿘훆뚼탨튪튻뚨쪱볤,퓚캣믺뗄늻춬뷗뛎,펦닉좡늻춬뗄캣믺맜샭햽싔ꆣ컒쏇듓쪱볤뗄캬뛈,퓚싞늮쳘ꆤ컷쮹(RobertHeath)뗄캣믺맜샭4R쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏쳡돶쇋싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭5R쒣탍(닎볻춼3),5R쫇평복짙(Reduction)ꆢ풤놸(Readiness)ꆢ랴펦(Response)ꆢ믖뢴(Restoration)뫍믘맋(Retrospect)컥룶떥듊쫗ퟖ쒸릹돉ꆣ1.캣믺잰뷗뛎룃뷗뛎맜샭쒿뗄쫇폐킧뇜쏢뫍복짙캣믺뗄랢짺ꆣ냙훎늻죧튻럀,뇜쏢캣믺쫇ퟮ뫃뗄캣믺맜샭,뮨럑ퟮ짙튲ퟮ캪볲뇣ꆣ복짙ꆣ뺰쟸맜샭늿쏅펦ퟶ뫃캣믺복짙릤ퟷ:튻쫇쫷솢캣믺맜샭틢쪶;뛾쫇돉솢캣믺맜샭킡ퟩ,횸뚨뫍엠퇸캣믺랢퇔죋;죽쫇뷸탐럧쿕움맀늢훆뚨캣믺펦벱풤낸;쯄쫇췪짆폎뿍뫍뺰쟸뻓쏱놣쿕훆뛈ꆣ듋췢,뺰쟸펦훘쫓죕뎣맜샭ꆣ틲캪죕뎣맜샭훐뗄늻릫헽ꆢ늻쏱훷ꆢ늻벰쪱뛔춻랢탔쫂볾쿲캣믺쫂볾뮯폐췆늨훺삽ퟷ폃ꆣ횻폐ퟶ뫃죕뎣맜샭,닅쓜붵뗍춻랢탔쫂볾뮯캪캣믺뗄믺싊ꆣ풤놸ꆣ뺰쟸맜샭늿쏅펦ퟶ뫃캣믺풤놸릤ퟷ:볓잿캣믺엠통ꆢ캣믺풤뺯ꆢ캣믺퇝쾰뫍햽싔컯뒢놸ꆣ뛔뺰쟸릤ퟷ죋풱뫍짧쟸뻓쏱뷸탐뺭뎣탔뗄ꆢ쾵춳탔뗄캣믺엠통,엠폽캣믺틢쪶,통솷펦뛔캣믺뗄믹놾벼쓜,쳡룟캣믺ힴ첬뗄ퟔ뻈쓜솦ꆣ뺰쟸캣믺쫇럇뎣첬쫂볾,틀뾿뎣맦맜샭돌탲쫇늻쓜폐킧뮯뷢뗄ꆣ틲듋,펦볓잿캣믺볠닢뫍풤뺯,뚨웚(폈웤캣믺뇆뷼쪱)뷸탐쒣쓢퇝쾰,늻뷶뿉틔쳡룟캣믺맜샭킡ퟩ뗄뿬쯙랴펦쓜솦,잿뮯캣믺맜샭틢쪶,뮹뿉틔볬닢틑훆뚩뗄캣믺펦벱풤낸쫇럱뿆톧ꆢ뿉탐ꆣ캣믺놬랢춻좻,랴펦쪱볤뷴웈,탨튪ꆰ캴폪쿈ꆢ럀뮼폚캴좻ꆱ,쳡잰뒢놸펦벱뻈풮컯ꆣ샽죧,즽뗘뺰쟸퓚폪벾살쇙횮볊,펦볓잿뗘훊퓖몦볠닢뫍풤뺯,뻙탐럀퓖ꆢ복퓖ꆢퟔ뻈엠통,뒢놸쪳욷ꆢ떭쮮ꆢ헊133' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡFinance&TradeEconomics,No12,2010엱ꆢ튽튩뗈뻈퓖컯ꆣ2.캣믺뷗뛎룃뷗뛎뗄맜샭쒿뗄쫇폐킧복쟡캣믺뛔뺰쟸퓬돉뗄웆뮵,뺡솿복짙죋풱짋췶뫍닆닺쯰쪧ꆣ풤뺯뫍볠뿘뛔캣믺뗄럀훎ퟷ폃폐쿞,쯼횻쓜뛔틑뺭뇭쿖튻뚨헷헗뗄춻랢탔쫂볾믲캣믺볓틔뿘훆,떫폐킩캣믺잰웚헷헗뫜쓑놻랢쿖믲헟늻뿉쓜뷸탐볠뿘뫍풤뺯ꆣ틲듋,싃폎뺰쟸펦붨솢캣믺랴펦믺훆,쳡룟뾹쓦쮮욽ꆣ랴펦ꆣ쫗쿈펦웴뚯캣믺펦벱풤낸,톸쯙돉솢캣믺펦벱횸믓킡ퟩ,뺰쟸훷튪쇬떼톸쯙ퟩ횯뻈풮죋풱룏뢰쿖뎡쟀뻈쏱훚짺쏼닆닺,폈웤펦ퟩ횯튻쟐솦솿붫죋풱짋췶뿘훆떽ퟮ뗍쿞뛈ꆣ싃폎튵쫇튻룶죋뗀훷틥뗄탐튵,쯹틔튪뺡뿉쓜퓚뒦샭캣믺훐쿲릫훚햹쪾웤뢻폐퓰죎탄뫍춬쟩탄뗄튻쏦ꆣ펦냑릫훚뗄샻틦럅퓚쫗캻,뺡솿캪쫜떽캣믺펰쿬뗄릫훚쏖늹쯰쪧,헢퇹폐샻폚캬뮤뺰쟸탎쿳ꆣ웤듎,얬솦쯑벯탅쾢,럖컶움맀캣믺뛔뺰쟸퓬돉뗄쯰쪧,벰쪱랢늼탅쾢ꆣ탅쾢쫇펰쿬캣믺맜샭돉킧뗄훘튪틲쯘,캣믺쟩뺰쿂탅쾢뗄늻췪좫ꆢ늻벰쪱ꆢ늻ힼ좷,붫룸캣믺맜샭헟듸살뫜듳싩랳ꆣ캣믺랢짺뫳,싃폎뺰쟸맜춼샭늿쏅펦벰쪱쫕벯뫍럖컶탅3ꆡ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭5R쒣탍쾢,늢평캣믺랢퇔죋벰쪱랢늼,헢퇹뿉틔복짙릫훚뗄닂볉늢펮뗃릫훚뗄샭뷢뫍횧돖ꆣퟮ뫳,돤럖훘쫓춬쎽쳥뗄릵춨ꆢ킭뗷뫍뫏ퟷ,얬솦쪵쿖싃폎뺰쟸폫쎽쳥횮볤뛔탅쾢풴뿘훆뗄솼탔뮥뚯ꆣ췗짆뒦샭폶쓑헟믲쫜짋헟볒쫴뗄낲뢧뫍엢뎥릤ퟷ,퓚샭엢맽돌훐튪볡돖ꆰ틔죋캪놾ꆢ폎뿍훁짏ꆱ풭퓲ꆣ믖뢴ꆣ벰쪱뛔캣믺훐놻웆뮵뗄뺰쟸풴ꆢ믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ럾컱짨쪩뗈뷸탐탞뢴,뇠훆훘붨맦뮮,훘쯜뺰쟸탎쿳뫍볓잿쫐뎡펪쿺,뺡뿬뗘죃뺰쟸헽뎣퓋,쪹뺰쟸쾵춳톸쯙믖뢴떽폐탲ힴ첬ꆣ좫쏦웕닩춻랢쫂볾틾뮼뗣,벰쪱훎샭잱퓚틾뮼뗣,캪폎뿍뒴퓬낲좫뗄싃폎뮷뺳ꆣ3.캣믺뫳뷗뛎룃뷗뛎캣믺맜샭쒿뗄쫇ퟜ뷡뺭퇩ꆢ붫캣쿕뮯캪믺폶ꆢ쳡짽캣믺맜샭쮮욽ꆣ폐킩캣믺믡훘뢴랢짺,늻춬캣믺펦뛔닟싔튲뻟폐쿠쯆탔ꆣ틲듋,싃폎뺰쟸퓚뺭샺캣믺뫳펦죏헦ퟜ뷡,췪짆캣믺맜샭쳥훆,쳡룟캣믺맜샭킧싊ꆣ믘맋ꆣ춨맽믘맋캣믺맜샭맽돌,뛔캣믺햽싔듫쪩뷸탐ퟔ컒짳쫓,ퟜ뷡뺭퇩뷌통,볓잿풴엤훃,폅뮯ퟩ횯뷡릹,췪짆맦헂훆뛈,쳡룟캣믺맜샭쮮욽ꆣ뛔쯹뺭샺캣믺뗄뇭쿖탎쪽ꆢ캣믺돉틲ꆢ퇝뇤맽돌뷸탐134' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2010쓪뗚2웚ꆡ죏헦럖컶,틔뇣쳡룟캣믺쪶뇰쓜솦ꆣ뛔캣믺맜샭맽돌훐풴뗄췪놸탔ꆢ펦벱풤낸뗄뿉탐탔ꆢퟩ횯뷡릹뗄뫏샭탔ꆢ맜샭훆뛈뗄췪짆탔ꆢ펦뛔벼쓜뗄뿆톧탔뷸탐좫쏦짳쫓,늢퓰돉폐맘늿쏅닩슩늹좱ꆢ훰쿮췪짆ꆣ헢퇹,싃폎뺰쟸펦뛔캣믺뗄쓜솦붫듳럹뛈쳡룟,듓뛸헦헽붫캣믺뮯캪캴살랢햹뗄믺폶ꆣ컥ꆢ뷡ꆡ폯싃폎뺰쟸캣믺뗄탎돉ꆢ퇝뇤럇뎣뢴퓓,뛸뢴퓓탔뿆톧뗄퇐뺿뛔쿳쫇뢴퓓쿖쿳ꆣ틲듋,뢴퓓탔뿆톧뗄샭싛뫍랽램폐훺폚뛔싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭뗄퇐뺿,놾컄ퟶ돶쇋뎢쫔ꆣ듓뢴퓓탔뿆톧뗄샭싛뾴,싃폎뺰쟸쯹쏦쇙뗄캣믺쫇평뎣첬쫂볾춻뇤탎돉,믲헟쿈평뎣첬쫂볾춻뇤탎돉춻랢탔쫂볾,퓙평춻랢탔쫂볾퓙듎춻뇤믲뛠듎춻뇤탎돉ꆣ싃폎뺰쟸캣믺뻟폐웕뇩탔뫍벫듳뗄웆뮵탔,싃폎뺰쟸펦캴폪돱,볓잿캣믺맜샭ꆣ컒쏇듓쪱볤뗄캬뛈,퓚싞늮쳘ꆤ컷쮹뗄캣믺맜샭4R쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏쳡돶쇋싃폎뺰쟸캣믺맜샭5R쒣탍,벴복짙ꆢ럀놸ꆢ랴펦ꆢ믖뢴뫍믘맋,룃쒣탍쓜릻냯훺싃폎뺰쟸복짙믲뇜쏢춻랢탔쫂볾뗄랢짺,ퟨ횹춻랢탔쫂볾뇤캪캣믺틔벰폐킧붵뗍캣믺뛔싃폎뺰쟸퓬돉뗄쯰쪧ꆣ훷튪닎뾼컄쿗:1.돂컄뻽ꆶ:컒맺싃폎뺰쟸뗄훷튪캣믺벰캣믺맜샭돵첽ꆷꆶ,싃폎톧뾯ꆷ2005쓪뗚6웚ꆣ2.뗋뇹ꆢ컢뇘뮢ꆶ:맺쓚췢싃폎튵캣믺맜샭퇐뺿ퟛ쫶ꆷꆶ,싃폎뿆톧ꆷ2004쓪뗚1웚ꆣ3.믆타죙ꆶ:뢴퓓탔뿆톧뗄랽램싛퇐뺿ꆷ,훘쟬듳톧돶냦짧2007쓪냦ꆣ4.뫮맺쇖ꆶ:싃폎캣믺:샠탍,펰쿬믺훆폫맜샭쒣탍ꆷꆶ,쓏뾪맜샭움싛ꆷ2005쓪뗚1웚ꆣ5.샮쪿폂ꆶ:럇쿟탔뿆톧폫뢴퓓탔뿆톧ꆷ,맾뛻뇵릤튵듳톧돶냦짧2006쓪냦ꆣ6.[쏀]싞늮쳘.컷쮹ꆶ:캣믺맜샭ꆷ,췵돉ꆢ쯎뇾믔틫,훐탅돶냦짧2001쓪냦ꆣ7.톦삽ꆢ헅잿ꆢ훓뾪뇳ꆶ:캣믺맜샭-탍웚훐맺쏦쇙뗄쳴햽ꆷ,쟥뮪듳톧돶냦짧2003쓪냦ꆣ8.틼쎷ꆢ슽폱뗈ꆶ:싃폎캣믺맜샭:릹붨쒿뗄뗘닣쏦뗄뚯첬뿲볜ꆷꆶ,싃폎뿆톧ꆷ2005쓪뗚4웚ꆣ,B.,,22(2),2001,-147.퓰죎뇠벭:샤ꆡ즼(짏뷓뗚69튳)웤듎,듓헾뢮폫맺폐릫릲럾컱늿쏅뗄맘쾵살뾴,튲튪닎헕맺폐웳튵룄룯ꆰ헾웳럖뾪ꆱ뗄풭퓲,복짙헾뢮뛔릫릲럾컱늿쏅뗄횱뷓뿘훆,볓듳맺폐훆릫릲럾컱늿쏅뗄ퟔ평닃솿좨ꆣ떱좻,퓚놣돖솼탲퓋펪뗄잰쳡쿂복짙헾뢮뿘훆,탨튪튻뚨뗄ퟩ횯뷡릹살쪵쿖ꆣ릹붨헢훖ퟩ횯뷡릹쫇떱잰컒맺릫릲럾컱늿쏅룄룯뗄뫋탄죎컱ꆣ쒿잰뫜뛠뗘랽뾪햹뗄릫솢튽풺ꆰ맜냬럖샫ꆱ뗄맽뛉탔쯹폐훆뷡릹낲업뇣쫇튻룶솼뫃뗄뎢쫔ꆣퟮ뫳,헫뛔컒맺쒿잰릫릲럾컱늿쏅맺폐훆슢뛏뗄뻖쏦,펦쫊떱틽죫쮽죋놾ꆣ맺폐훆뫍쮽폐훆쿠뮥뺺헹ꆢ솼탔뮥뚯,늻뷶쓜릻듙뷸릫릲럾컱늿쏅헻쳥붵뗍돉놾,룄짆짺닺킧싊,뿋럾맺폐릫릲럾컱늿쏅뗄풴샋럑탐캪,뮹믡듸살릫릲닺욷럾컱뗄뛠퇹뮯,폐샻폚싺ퟣ늻춬닣듎뻓쏱뛔릫릲닺욷럾컱뗄탨쟳,쳡룟짧믡헻쳥뗄뢣샻쮮욽ꆣ훷튪닎뾼컄쿗:1.췵폀쟕ꆢ뚡뻕뫬ꆶ:릫릲늿쏅쓚늿뗄벤샸믺훆:튻룶컄쿗쫶움ꆷꆶ,쫀뷧뺭볃컄믣ꆷ2007쓪뗚1웚ꆣ2.헅캬펭ꆶ:쯹폐훆,훎샭뷡릹벰캯췐ꆪꆪꆪ듺샭맘쾵ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ1996쓪뗚9웚ꆣ,Alchain,.,Uncertainty,,,,June1950,,JohnMoore,,,,December1990,-1158.퓰죎뇠벭:샏ꆡ얣135' 1994-2010 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
