ꆡ뗚16뻭뗚4웚쾵춳맜샭톧놨ꆡꆡ2007쓪8퓂JournalofSystems&ꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:100522542(2007)0420401206컒맺돇쿧만뚨닺춶맦쒣폫폅뮯엤훃헅ꆡ죯,ꆡ샮훒뢻,ꆡ맘ꆡ뿂(맾뛻뇵릤튵듳톧맜샭톧풺,맾뛻뇵150001)ꆾ햪튪ꆿ춨맽뛔1980ꆫ2005쓪볤컒맺돇쿧만뚨닺춶쟩뿶뷸탐뇈뷏럖컶,듓훐톰쟳웤쳘헷뫍맦싉,ퟷ캪횸떼춶뗄틀뻝ꆣ뷸뛸듓풤닢캴살뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆢ좷뚨만뚨닺춶싊죫쫖,뛔컒맺2006ꆫ2020쓪뛈좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ퟜ솿뷸탐닢쯣ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏,틔릫욽뫍킧싊캪풭퓲ꆢ틔쯵킡돇쿧뻓쏱죋뻹쫕죫닮뻠캪쒿뇪,붨솢쒣탍,뛔춶ퟜ솿뷸탐돇쿧볤뗄폅뮯엤훃ꆣퟮ훕뗃돶뷡싛:퓚룷ퟔ춶맦쒣돖탸퓶뎤뗄믹뒡짏,돇쿧횮볤뗄춶닮뻠붫늻뛏쯵킡,듓뛸좷놣뷰뗄ퟮ폅엤훃뫍돇쿧춳돯랢햹ꆣ맘볼듊:돇쿧춳돯;만뚨닺춶;춶폅뮯엤훃;춶싊훐춼럖샠뫅:F20ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:AStudyontheScaleandOptimizationforUrban2ruralInvestmentinFixedAssetsofChinaZHANGRui,ꆡLIZhong2fu,ꆡGUANKe(SchoolofManagement,HarbinInstituteofTechnology,Harbin150001,China)ꆾAbstractꆿFromthereformandopening2up,thegapofurban2ruralinvestmentinfixedassets(IFA)hascontinuallyincreased,,ꆫ2005,,itgottheannualamountofIFAinChinafrom2006ꆫ,,itdrewtheconclusionthatonthebasisofcontinu2allyincreaseofrespectivescale,thegapshouldbeunceasinglyreduced,:balancedurban2ruraldevelopment;investmentinfixedassets(IFA);investmentoptimizingdistribution;rateofinvestmentꆡꆡ룄룯뾪럅20뛠쓪살,컒맺좫짧믡만뚨닺춶폚얷쏀죕뗈튻킩랢듯맺볒ꆣ쯦ퟅ뷰뗄늻뛏춶죫,맦쒣늻뛏삩듳,쳘뇰쫇듓20쫀볍90쓪듺웰,만뚨컒맺만뚨닺춶ퟜ쳥맦쒣틑뺭쓜릻싺ퟣ뺭볃랢햹닺춶룼뷸죫쇋뿬쯙퓶뎤뷗뛎,2005쓪,컒맺좫짧뗄탨튪,죧뫎쪵쿖뷰뗄폐킧샻폃,폅뮯춶뷡릹ꆢ믡만뚨닺춶캪췲틚풪,춶싊(만뚨닺쪵쿖뷰뗄뫏샭폅뮯엤훃쫇튪뷢뻶뗄쫗튪컊쳢ꆣ떱춶폫맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈횵)듯떽%,풶풶룟잰,컒맺돇쿧횮볤춶쮮욽늻뻹뫢,뛸쟒닮뻠늻뛏삭듳,2005쓪,돇헲죋뻹춶(13359풪)폫얩듥죋뻹쫕룥죕웚:2006209219ꆡ탞뚩죕웚:2007203205믹뷰쿮쒿:뿆벼늿ꆰ쪮컥ꆱ릥맘뿎쳢춶(1835풪)횮뇈듯떽쇋ꇃ1ꆣ뷰쫇뺭볃(2003BA808A04)ퟷ헟볲뷩:헅ꆡ죯(19782),얮,늩쪿짺ꆣ퇐뺿랽쿲캪돇쿧춳돯ꆢ랢햹뗄훷튪췆뚯솦솿,뷰춶죫늻ퟣ,붫믡퇏훘ퟨ낭킡돇헲붨짨뫍힡햬닺튵뮯뗈ꆣ뺭볃랢햹쯙뛈,퇓뮺죋쏱짺믮쮮욽뗄쳡룟ꆣ틲듋,짮
402쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ톧ꆡ놨뗚16뻭ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ죫럖컶컒맺춶쇬폲뗄쿖ힴ,늢뷸탐뷰퓚돇쿧볤뇭1ꆡ컒맺죋뻹만뚨닺춶ꆢ죋뻹GDP쫽뻝뇈뷏뗄폐킧엤훃,뛔폚폅뮯뺭볃뷡릹,쪵쿖돇쿧춳돯랢햹,뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ놾컄춨맽톰쟳죋뻹춶폫쫕죫쓪뛈죋뻹만뚨닺춶/풪죋뻹GDP/풪돇헲ꋙ얩듥ꋚ돇헲ꋛ얩듥ꋜꋙ/ꋚꋛ/ꋜ횮볤뗄쫽솿맘쾵,틔쯵킡돇쿧쫕죫닮뻠캪쒿뇪,붨솢폅뮯엤훃쒣탍,늢뛔컒맺2006ꆫ2020쓪뗄돇쿧춶맦쒣뷸탐풤닢ꆣꆡ만뚨닺춶쟩뿶럖컶퓚컒맺만뚨닺춶ퟜ쳥맦쒣돖탸퓶뎤뗄믹뒡짏,돇헲ꆢ얩듥춶쯤좻춬퇹돊퓶뎤쟷쫆,떫폐웤룷ퟔ늻춬쳘뗣ꆣ뇭1쇐돶쇋듓ꆫ2005쓪컒맺돇헲(몬듳훐킡돇쫐ꆢ돇맘헲)ꆢ얩듥(몬듥ꆢ붨훆헲ꆢ벯헲)죋뻹만뚨닺춶뫍죋뻹GDP뗄샺쪷쫽뻝ꆣ춨맽럖컶뿉틔뾴떽뻟폐죧쿂쳘뗣:(1)맽좥26쓪볤,쯦ퟅ컒맺뺭볃뗄뿬쯙랢햹뫍뺭볃쪵솦뗄퓶잿,컒맺돇헲ꆢ얩듥뗄죋뻹만뚨닺춶뫍죋뻹GDP뻹돊뿬쯙퓶뎤쟷쫆ꆣ평춳볆쫽뻝뿉틔뾴돶,2005쓪컒맺돇ꆢ쿧죋뻹춶뫍죋뻹GDP럖뇰캪1980쓪뗄ꆢꆢ뫍놶ꆣ(2)컒맺얩듥죋뻹만뚨닺춶믹쫽뷏뗍,퓶뎤톸쯙ꆣ쯤좻얩듥죋뻹춶퓚26쓪볤평29풪퓶뎤떽552풪,퓶뎤쇋놶,듳듳룟폚돇쫐(26쓪볤퓶뎤쇋놶),떫평폚컒맺얩듥죋뻹춶뗄웰뗣뷏뗍,뺡맜뺭맽쇋뛠쓪뗄돖탸뿬쯙퓶뎤,컒맺뗄돇쿧죋뻹춶횮뇈죔좻퓚7ꇃ1ퟳ폒엇뮲ꆣ--1980(3)컒맺얩듥죋뻹GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈듳듳뿬폚돇쫐죋뻹GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈,떫죔좻뷏뗍ꆣꆡꆡ힢:1.쯹폐쫽뻝뻹틔1980쓪컯볛횸쫽헛쯣ꆣ2.쇏살풴:훐맺2005쓪,컒맺돇헲뫍얩듥뗄죋뻹춳볆쓪본,2006GDP폫1980쓪쿠뇈,럖뇰캪뫍놶,얩듥뗄퓶쯙쯤좻룟폚돇쫐,떫평폚뚨컒맺춶ퟜ쳥맦쒣,퓚듋믹뒡짏,내헕튻뚨풭퓲뷸믹뒡뷏닮,죋뻹횵죔풶뗍폚돇쫐ꆣ탐엤훃ꆣ놾컄쫔춼춨맽뛔춶싊뫍GDP뷸탐풤닢,(4)뛔얩듥춶뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈풶풶실뫳폚얩듥듓뛸뗃떽춶ퟜ쳥맦쒣ꆣGDP퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ죧춼1쯹쪾,돇쿧죋뻹GDP횮뇈ꆡ만뚨닺춶싊뗄좷뚨평1980쓪뗄놶쯵킡떽2004쓪뗄놶,뛸ꆡ춶싊쿖ힴ럖컶ꆡ룄룯뾪럅틔살,컒맺만뚨돇쿧죋뻹춶횮뇈죔엇뮲퓚7놶,뮻뻤뮰쮵,얩듥폃닺춶싊ퟜ쳥돊뿬쯙짏짽쟷쫆,뷘훁2005쓪,만늻떽돇쫐춶1/7뗄뷰,뒴퓬쇋풼캪돇쫐3/7뗄뚨닺춶싊틑뺭듯떽%,벸뫵햼떽GDP뗄짺닺ퟜ횵,얩듥뗄춶죫닺돶킧틦룼룟ꆣ1/2ꆣ춼1캪컒맺폫쫀뷧늿럖맺볒춶싊뇈뷏ꆣ쒿ꆡꆡퟛ짏쯹쫶,26쓪볤,컒맺만뚨닺춶맦쒣폐잰,컒맺뗄춶싊풶룟폚춼훐룷맺쫽뻝ꆣ풭틲쫇퓚뷏듳퓶뎤,떫훷튪벯훐퓚돇쫐,얩듥평폚춶믹뒡뷏80쓪듺뫳,랢듯맺볒틑뺭뛈맽쇋듳솿춶붨짨뗄쪱닮,쯤폐뷏뿬퓶뎤,떫죔풶풶실뫳폚돇쫐ꆣ틲듋,맺웚,룷쿮믹뒡짨쪩믹놾췪놸,틲듋,만뚨닺춶싊볒퓚돖탸볓듳춶맦쒣뗄잰쳡쿂,펦쫊쪱볓잿뛔얩쿠뛔뷏뗍ꆣ떫쯻쏇뗄춶싊뇤뮯뛔컒맺춶싊짨뚨듥춶뗄솦뛈,킭뗷뷰퓚돇쿧볤뗄춶죫뇈샽,좫쏦뻟폐횸떼틢틥ꆣ2004쓪,컒맺죋뻹쫕죫내1964쓪춳돯돇쿧랢햹,듓뛸놣횤쪵쿖좫쏦킡뾵뗄쮳샻쪵쪩ꆣ쏀풪볛헛쯣캪1159쏀풪,룹뻝잮쓉샯2주뛻삥쒣탍,죋뻹쫕죫퓚1000ꆫ1500쏀풪뗄맺볒,춶싊펦2ꆡ춶ퟜ쳥맦쒣풤닢캪%ꆣ룹뻝맺컱풺랢햹퇐뺿훐탄탅쾢췸튪뷸탐돇헲뫍얩듥뗄춶폅뮯엤훃,쫗쿈튪좷(2004)볒럖컶,쒿잰컒맺쫊뛈뗄춶싊펦캪37%
ꆡ뗚4웚헅ꆡ죯,뗈:컒맺돇쿧만뚨닺춶맦쒣폫폅뮯엤훃403ꆫ39%,쪵볊춶싊욫룟쇋4%ꆫ6%ꆣꆡGDP퓶뎤쟷쫆풤닢룹뻝ꆰ쪮쇹ꆱ듳쳡돶뗄햽싔쒿뇪ꆰ2010쓪맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵랭1랭,2020쓪퓙랭1랭ꆱ,2000쓪,컒맺맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵췲틚풪,벴떽2010쓪듯떽18췲틚풪,2020쓪36췲틚풪ꆣ틲듋,좫맺GDP쓪뻹퓶쯙훁짙튪놣돖퓚%ퟳ폒ꆣ쯦ퟅ컒맺뺭볃뗄늻뛏뿬쯙랢햹,2000ꆫ2005쓪볤,맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쓪뻹퓶뎤%,캪듋맺볒쫊쪱뗘뗷헻쇋맦뮮쒿뇪ꆶ,맺쏱뺭볃춼뫍짧믡랢햹뗚111ꆡ훐맺폫쫀뷧늿럖맺볒춶싊뇈뷏룶5쓪(2006ꆫ2010쓪)맦뮮룙튪ꆷ횸돶,2006ꆫ2010쓪볤,맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쒿뇪풤볆ꆡ쒣탍벰닎쫽볆쯣ꆡ컒맺만뚨닺춶싊뫍캪쓪뻹퓶뎤%,떽2010쓪뗗,맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵듯GDP퓶뎤싊뇤뮯쟷쫆죧춼2쯹쪾ꆣ듓훐뿉틔뾴돶,떽췲틚,죋뻹GDP듯떽19270풪,쳡잰쪵쿖춶싊뫍GDP퓶뎤싊믹놾놣돖춬퇹쟷쫆뇤뚯,춨맽ꆰ쪮쇹ꆱ듳훐ꆰ랭1랭ꆱ뗄햽싔쒿뇪ꆣ룹뻝짏쫶햽싔쒿뛔춶뫍뺭볃퓶뎤뗄돋쫽샭싛뫍볓쯙샭싛퇐뺿,뿉뇪,뷡뫏맺컱풺랢햹퇐뺿훐탄볒췵쏎뿼퇐뺿돉맻,틔뎢쫔붨솢춶싊폫뺭볃퓶뎤싊횮볤뗄쒣탍맘쾵,뛔2006ꆫ2020쓪컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤쟩뿶ퟶ돶풤닢,쫽뻝틔듋살퇐뺿폫컒맺뺭볃랢햹쿠킭뗷뗄춶싊ꆣ죧뇭2쯹쪾ꆣ뇭2ꆡ2006ꆫ2020쓪컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈풤닢쓪뛈GDP욽뻹퓶뎤싊/%웚쒩GDP/췲틚풪ퟮ뗍쫊뛈ퟮ룟ퟮ뗍쫊뛈ퟮ룟2006ꆫꆫꆫꆡ만뚨닺춶맦쒣뗄좷뚨춼2ꆡ컒맺만뚨닺춶싊뫍GDP퓶뎤싊뇭3캪룹뻝쒣탍풤닢뗃떽뗄컒맺2006ꆫ2020ꆡꆡ볙짨춶싊뫍GDP횮볤듦퓚쿟탔맘쾵,붨솢쿟쓪볤GDP뫍좫짧믡만뚨닺춶ퟜ쳥맦쒣ꆣ뿉틔탔뚯첬믘맩쒣탍:뾴떽,컒맺춶싊퓚캴살15쓪쓚돊훰늽쿂붵쟷쫆,TZLt=ꛁ0+ꛁ1GDPt+ꛁ2TZLt-1(1)쪮튻컥쒩붫붵훁%,떽2020쓪붫붵훁34%,헢쪽훐:TZLt캪t쓪뗄춶싊;GDPt캪t쓪뗄GDP볈럻뫏컒맺쫀뷧뺭볃랢햹뗄웕뇩맦싉,폖폫컒맺쳡퓶뎤싊ꆣ돶뗄뿘훆춶맦쒣ꆢ쳡룟춶킧싊ꆢ폅뮯춶뷡릹뗄ꆡꆡ퇹놾쟸볤캪1980ꆫ2005쓪,GDP퓶뎤싊살ퟔ랢햹쒿뇪쿠쫊펦ꆣ2010ꆢ2015ꆢ2020쓪,컒맺만뚨ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ,춶싊평ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ훐만뚨닺춶럖뇰캪ꆢ뫍췲틚풪ꆣ내헕닺춶폫떱쓪GDP뗄뇈횵볆쯣뛸살ꆣGDP퓶뎤쯙뛈좷뚨뗄춶맦쒣,튻랽쏦쓜릻싺ퟣ컒평폚쫽뻝캪쪱볤탲쇐,탨튪뷸탐컈뚨탔볬퇩ꆣ맺뺭볃뿬쯙랢햹뗄탨튪,춬쪱,평폚쫇틔뺭볃퓶뎤캪놾컄닉폃죭볾뛔뇤솿탲쇐뷸탐ADF떥틀뻝닢쯣,쓜릻폐킧놣횤뷰살풴ꆣ캻룹볬퇩,솽헟뻹춨맽1%쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂뗄욽컈탔볬퇩ꆣ뷸뛸닉폃3ꆡ킭뗷돇쿧춶뗄엤훃Johnsen킭헻볬퇩램,볬퇩솽헟듦퓚캩튻킭헻맘쾵ꆣ닉폃죭볾뿉틔뗃떽죧ꆡ춶엤훃풭퓲쿂춶싊쒣탍:돇쿧뺭볃닮틬삩듳,쫇훐맺룄룯뾪럅틔살돶쿖TZLt=++-1(2)늢틽웰맣랺맘힢뗄탂컊쳢ꆣ짏쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,뗘ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ()ꆡꆡ()쟸뫍돇쿧뺭볃닮틬삩듳쯙뛈볓뿬,뛔맺볒뫪맛뺭볃R2=,.=,F2볬퇩=늨뚯닺짺펰쿬ꆣ틲듋,훆뚨튻룶쫊뫏뺭볃랢햹탨쟳ꆡꆡ뿉틔뾴돶,쒣탍쓢뫏탔뷏뫃,뿉틔ퟷ캪풤닢쒣뗄춶엤훃풭퓲쫇럇뎣훘튪뗄ꆣ만뚨닺춶쯼늻탍ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏,횻탨쟳뗃GDP퓶뎤싊,벴뿉뗃떽뷶짦벰짧믡짏랢햹짺닺뗄릤튵웳튵뗈짺닺탔붨짨,쿠펦뗄춶싊ꆣ뮹냼삨믹뒡짨쪩뗈뗘랽릫릲붨짨뫍튻킩짧믡릫틦붨
404쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ톧ꆡ놨뗚16뻭ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뇭3ꆡ컒맺만뚨닺춶맦쒣풤닢캪뷸탐폅뮯엤훃뗄쒿뇪,떫쯦ퟅ룄룯뾪럅뗄훰늽짮쓪뛈춶싊GDPퟜ춶뛮죋뻹춶죫,컒맺뗄햽싔쒿뇪틑뺭평떥뒿ힷ쟳GDP퓶뎤뗄듖/%/췲틚/췲틚/풪3럅탍랢햹쿲죧뫎쪵쿖뿉돖탸랢햹ꆣ틲듋,퓚폅뮯엤훃쒣탍훐,붫쓜릻룼폐킧뗘랴펳돇쿧죋쏱짺믮쮮욽닮뻠뗄횸뇪ꆪꆪꆪ돇쿧죋뻹쫕죫닮뻠ퟮ킡ퟷ캪폅뮯쒿뇪,춨맽쪹웤쪵쿖ퟮ킡뮯,듓뛸쪹뗃돇쿧뻓쏱짺믮닮뻠늻뛏쯵킡,ퟮ훕쪵쿖돇쿧킭뗷랢햹ꆣ뛸붫ퟷ캪튻쿮풼쫸쳵볾쇐돶,쒿뗄쫇싺ퟣ퓚듋훖폅뮯쳵볾쿂,쪹뗃맺쏱뺭볃쓜릻내헕맺볒ퟜ쳥햽싔쒿뇪훐뗄쯙뛈랢햹ꆣꆡ쒿뇪몯쫽뗄짨뚨ꆡ쒿뇪몯쫽쫇쪹뗃돇쿧뻓쏱뗄죋뻹쫕죫횮뇈ퟮ킡,듓뛸쯵킡돇쿧볤뗄닮뻠,쪵쿖돇쿧킭뗷랢햹ꆣ틲듋,쫗쿈펦룃럖뇰붨솢돇쿧볤죋뻹쫕죫쒣탍,늢톰헒솽헟볤맘쾵ꆣ틑폐뗄훚뛠퇐뺿돉맻뻹뇭쏷,춶뫍뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤듦퓚틲맻맘쾵,뛸퓚럖엤랽쪽볈뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂,뺭볃퓶뎤폖횱뷓펰쿬죋쏱쫕죫쮮욽ꆣ틲듋,쫔춼붨솢춶폫쫕죫횮볤뗄뺭볃맘쾵,듓뛸뷸탐춶뗄폐킧엤훃ꆣ볙짨돇쿧볤죋뻹춶뫍죋뻹쫕죫횮볤듦퓚죧쿂짨ꆣ쯹틔,떱잰컒맺뗄춶펦룃볦맋뷰뗄킧싊뫍맘쾵:짧믡릫욽,벴쳥쿖킧싊뫍릫욽풭퓲ꆣlnIut=ꛁ0+ꛁ1lnKut+ꛁ2lnIut-1(3)(1)킧싊풭퓲ꆣ돤럖랢믓쫐뎡엤훃풴뗄ퟷlnIrt=ꛂ0+ꛂ1lnKrt+ꛂ2lnIrt-1(4)폃,퓚볛횵맦싉ퟷ폃쿂,춶ힷ쟳뷰킧틦뗄ퟮ듳쪽훐:Iut캪t쓪돇헲죋뻹쫕죫;Kut캪t쓪돇헲죋뻹뮯,뷰쿲킧틦뫃ꆢ뇟볊닺돶룟뗄돇쫐뫍쿮쒿쇷뚯ꆣ춶;Irt캪t쓪얩듥죋뻹쫕죫;Krt캪t쓪얩듥죋뻹퓚짧믡짺닺믮뚯훐,쮽죋춶ퟱ톭킧싊풭퓲,톰쟳춶ꆣ뷰뗄퓶횵뫍룼룟뗄쪹폃볛횵ꆣ튻랽쏦,듓쟸폲짏뾴,ꆡ쒣탍볬퇩ꆡ쒣탍뗄퇹놾쟸볤캪1980ꆫ2005뷰틗쇷쿲풤웚쫕틦룟ꆢ췢늿뺭볃뫍뻛벯뺭볃뫃뗄쓪,쫽뻝살풴폚ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ뫍ꆶ훐맺얩듥춳볆뗘쟸;쇭튻랽쏦,뷰쪹폃짏,쮽죋놾톡퓱폐믘놨쓪본ꆷ,늢뻹틑쿻돽춨믵엲헍펰쿬ꆣ닉폃뚯첬믘맩쒣뫍쫐뎡샻죳룟뗄룷훖쿮쒿ꆣ탍뷸탐럖컶,늻듦퓚ퟔ쿠맘,샻폃죭볾(2)릫욽풭퓲ꆣ춨맽헾뢮뗄뫪맛틽떼,듙뷸볆쯣뿉럖뇰뗃돶돇쿧죋뻹춶폫룷ퟔ뻓쏱쫕죫뗄뚯풴퓚룷늿쏅뫍룷뗘쟸횮볤폅뮯엤훃ꆣ퓚뷰엤훃랽첬믘맩쒣탍:쏦,헾뢮뗷뿘쫇룹뻝릫릲붨짨퓚헻룶짧믡탨튪훐쯹돇헲햼뗄뇈훘,춨맽뫏샭뗘훆뚨닆헾쮰쫕뗈헾닟,뗷뷚닆ꆡlnIut=++-1헾뫍맺볒풤쯣횧돶뗄춶뷡릹,틽떼뷰퓚릫릲늿ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ()ꆡꆡꆡ()(5)쏅볤뗄쫊틋엤훃ꆣ웤듎,헾뢮춨맽닆헾틆횧뢶훆R2=,ꆡ.=,ꆡF=뛈,뛔잷랢듯뗘쟸뫍얩듥뗄춶웰횧돖ퟷ폃,복짙뛔ꆡꆡ얩듥뢻풣뗘쟸뗄횧돶,퓶볓쿲실뫳뗘쟸뗄횧뢶,뗷뷚뷰ꆡlnIrt=++-1퓚뗘쟸횮볤뗄엤훃,쪹풴쇷쿲뫏샭뮯,엠폽뗘랽헾ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ()ꆡꆡꆡ()(6)뢮뗄ퟔ컒랢햹쓜솦,헢뛔폚쳡룟뫪맛뺭볃킧싊뫍쪵R2=,ꆡ.=,ꆡF=쿖맺쏱뺭볃솼탔톭뮷뻟폐럇뎣훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣꆡ쒣탍럖컶ꆡ춨맽뛔짏쫶쒣탍뷸탐럖컶,뿉틔퓚볦맋킧싊뫍릫욽쪱,놣돖솽헟쿠뮥킭뗷,쪹돇뾴돶:헲뫍얩듥볈쓜헽뎣랢햹,폖훰붥쯵킡돇쿧횮볤뗄닮(1)죋뻹춶쓜릻폐킧듸뚯돇ꆢ쿧뻓쏱쫕죫퓶뻠,춬쪱늻쓜맽뛠뗘쯰쪧뺭볃킧싊,복뮺랢햹ꆣ뎤ꆣ틲듋,맺볒춨맽볓듳춶뗄헾닟,좷쪵쓜릻쳡룟ꆡ춶엤훃쒣탍뗄믹놾쮼슷죋쏱뗄쫕죫쮮욽ꆣ쒿잰틑폐뗄퇐뺿,뛠닉폃닺돶(GDP)ퟮ듳뮯ퟷ(2)춶뛔돇쿧뻓쏱뗄죋뻹쫕죫퓶뎤닺짺뗄ퟷ
ꆡ뗚4웚헅ꆡ죯,뗈:컒맺돇쿧만뚨닺춶맦쒣폫폅뮯엤훃405폃듳킡늻춬ꆣ평솽룶쒣탍훐뗄춶뇟볊킧틦쾵쫽뿉죫릫욽닎쫽,쫇룹뻝쪵볊탨튪볓죫뗄헾닟뗷뷚,틔컒틔뾴돶:춬퇹뗄죋뻹춶쎿퓶볓1풪,돇헲뻓쏱쫕죫맺쪵쿖좫쏦킡뾵짧믡뗄햽싔쒿뇪캪헾닟틀뻝,랴펳붫퓶볓풪,뛸얩듥뻓쏱뗄쫕죫붫퓶볓풪ꆣ쇋쪱듺랢햹뗄랽쿲뫍탨쟳ꆣ놾컄뛔릫욽닎쫽뗄틽틲듋,죧맻늻뾼싇웤쯻틲쯘,퓚춶죫쿠춬뗄뷰뗄쳵죫ꆢ뷩짜뫍좡횵횻쫇룹뻝퇐뺿탨튪,ퟶ쇋돵늽뗄뎢볾쿂,얩듥뻓쏱뗄쫕죫쮮욽뗄쳡룟룼뿬ꆣ틲듋,춨맽쫔ꆣ쿖쪵훐릫욽닎쫽뗄좷뚨럇뎣뢴퓓,늻춬쪱웚ꆢ늻볓듳뛔얩듥뗄춶솦뛈,뿉틔폐킧듙뷸얩쏱짺믮쮮춬뗘쟸ꆢ늻춬쪡럝뫍늻춬돇쫐횮볤뗄쾵쫽룷늻쿠춬,욽뗄쳡룟ꆣ탨튪뿆톧좷뚨랶캧ꆣꆡ춶폅뮯엤훃뗄쫽톧쒣탍ퟛ짏,틔뇭3뗄만뚨닺춶ퟜ솿캪틀뻝,샻폃좷뚨쇋쒿뇪몯쫽,뻍뿉틔퓚GDPꆢ좫맺ퟜ죋뿚짏쫶쒿뇪랽돌,춨맽쪹폃Matlab죭볾뇠돌,ퟮ훕풤뫍만뚨닺춶ퟜ쳥맦쒣뗄풼쫸쿂,붨솢돇쿧뺭볃닢돶얩듥ꆢ돇쫐만뚨닺춶쫽뛮,죧뇭4쯹쪾ꆣ닮뻠ퟮ킡뗄쒿뇪폅뮯럖엤쒣탍:뇭4ꆡ컒맺돇쿧만뚨닺춶풤닢TmIutinZ=ꇆt=nIrt쓪뛈죋뻹춶/풪춶ퟜ뛮/틚풪K돇/K쿧돇쫐얩듥돇쫐얩듥+KrtꇜKtꆡꆡ+LrtꇜLtꆡꆡ+YrtꇝYtꆡꆡ=쪽훐:Yt캪뗚t쓪뗄좫맺(틚풪);Yut캪뗚t쓪뗄돇헲GDP(틚풪);Yrt캪뗚t쓪뗄얩듥(틚풪);Kt캪뗚t쓪뗄좫맺만뚨닺춶(틚풪);Lt캪뗚t쓪뗄좫맺ퟜ죋뿚(췲죋);Lut캪뗚t쓪뗄돇헲죋뿚(췲죋);Lrt캪뗚t쓪뗄얩듥죋뿚(췲죋)ꆣ쒣탍쮵쏷:(1)풼쫸쳵볾(1)캪춶ퟜ솿풼쫸ꆣ쒿뗄쫇놣횤춨맽쒣탍폅뮯뗃떽뗄돇쿧춶맦쒣횮뫍늻듳폚잰컄훐풤닢뗄돇쿧ퟜ쳥춶맦쒣ꆣ(2)풼쫸쳵볾(2)캪죋뿚풼쫸ꆣ웤훐,2006ꆫ2020쓪좫맺ꆢ돇헲뫍얩듥죋뿚뗄풤닢쫽뻝뻹살ퟔ솪뫏맺뛔쫀뷧돇헲뮯랢햹뗄풤닢놨룦ꆶꆷ(2001)ꆣꆡ풤닢뷡맻럖컶(3)풼쫸쳵볾(3)캪뺭볃랢햹풼쫸ꆣ룃풼쫸쓜평풤닢뷡맻뿉틔뾴돶,2006ꆫ2020쓪볤컒맺돇좷놣,죧맻내헕짏쫶쒣탍폅뮯뗃떽뗄돇쿧춶맦쒣쿧춶뛮죔놣돖늻뛏퓶뎤,웤훐돇헲죋뻹춶퓶쯙뷸탐춶,뗃떽뗄GDP퓶뎤싊쓜릻싺ퟣ뇭훐쯹쇐돶붫복싽,얩듥죋뻹춶퓶쯙붫볓듳,떽2020쓪,돇쿧뗄컒맺뺭볃랢햹뗄햽싔쒿뇪ꆣ돇헲뫍얩듥뗄춶폫죋뻹춶횮뇈붫평2004쓪뗄ꇃ1훰붥쯵킡떽GDP볤뗄맘쾵쒣탍,뿉틔샻폃쪽(2)뷸탐볆쯣ꆣ2020쓪뗄ꇃ1,돇쿧볤춶닮뻠붫늻뛏쯵킡,캪(4)풼쫸쳵볾(4)캪쫕죫욽컈탔풼쫸ꆣ룃풼쫸돇쿧춳돯랢햹뫍좫쏦킡뾵뗄쮳샻쪵쿖쳡릩쇋뷰놣뗄짨솢쫇캪쇋퓚쯵킡돇쿧뻓쏱뗄죋뻹쫕죫닮뻠뗄맽횤,죧춼3쯹쪾ꆣ돌훐,뇜쏢돶쿖뷏듳늨뚯,놣횤컈늽킭뗷랢햹ꆣ뷸탐ꆡ헾닟붨틩춶뫏샭엤훃뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪쫇,퓚놣횤뺭볃랢햹쯙뛈쒣탍뗄풤닢뷡맻횻쫇퓚쒿뇪몯쫽쿂뗄샭싛뷡뗄믹뒡짏,훰늽쯵킡돇쿧볤뗄닮뻠,쪵쿖춳돯킭뗷랢맻,퓚쪵볊훐튪헦헽쪵쿖돇쿧춶닮뻠뗄늻뛏쯵킡,햹ꆣ캪쇋뫢솿돇쿧닮뻠,틽죫릫욽닎쫽W(W=뇘탫튪폐쿠펦뗄헾닟듫쪩ퟷ캪놣횤ꆣ뎤웚틔살,뛔Iut/Irt)ꆣ짨Wt=,퓲떽2020쓪,W뗄횵얩듥뗄춶튻횱듦퓚ퟅ헾뢮춶솦뛈죵ꆢ춶뮷뺳붫붵떽ퟳ폒ꆣ죋뻹쫕죫Iu뫍Ir폫춶Ku뫍닮ꆢ춶죚쟾뗀떥튻뗈컊쳢,헢퇏훘훆풼쇋얩듥뗄춶Kr볤맘쾵닉폃쪽(5)뫍(6)뷸탐볆쯣ꆣ맦쒣ꆣ캪쇋폐킧뷢뻶헢킩컊쳢,헾뢮펦듓틔쿂벸탨튪힢틢뗄쫇:뷰럖엤쒣탍뗄쒿뇪몯쫽훐볓랽쏦ퟅ쫖:
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