2005쓪3퓂2005뗚19뻭뗚3웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뮪ꆡ뚫ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃ꆡ맜ꆡ샭EastChinaEconomicManagemꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡMar.,,듓ꆰ죽풪싛ꆱ첸컒맺죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱샮뮳뚨(뢴떩듳톧ꆡ뷰죚퇐뺿풺,짏몣ꆡ200433)[햪튪]ퟷ캪뺭뗤뗄믣싊훆뛈톡퓱틀뻝ꆪꆪꆪꆰ죽풪싛ꆰ,뎤웚틔살튻횱놻톧쫵뷧쯹탅럮,춬퇹퓚컒맺,뷼쓪살맘폚죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱컊쳢튲쫇튻횱틔듋캪믹쪯ꆣ죏캪죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱훷튪틀뻝쫇컒맺훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷,좻뛸놾컄붫샻폃Mendel2Fleming뫍Mendel2Fleming2Dornbusch솽룶쒣탍좥럖컶,뗃돶벴쪹퓚맺볊놾췪좫늻ퟔ평쇷뚯쿂뗄만뚨믣싊헾닟틔벰퓚맺볊놾뗄췪좫ퟔ평쇷뚯쟩뿶쿂뗄뢡뚯믣싊헾닟뚼컞램췪좫뗃틔쪵쿖,듓뛸샭쟥쇋컒맺죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈톡퓱쪱틀삵폚훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷뗄쒣뫽죏쪶ꆣ[맘볼듊]죽풪싛;맺볊놾뗄췪좫ퟔ평쇷뚯;믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷;만뚨믣싊헾닟;죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈[훐춼럖샠뫅]F83012ꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1007ꆪ5097(2005)03ꆪ0128ꆪ02TalkingaboutChinapisCurrentChoicesofRMBExchangeRateSystemfromTridemmaLIHuai2ding(FinancialResearchSchool,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China)Abstract:,butinthispresentation,:tridemma;completefreedomofinternationalcapitalflow;autonomyofmonetarypolicy;fixedexchangeratepolicy;RMBexchangeratesystemꆡꆡ튻ꆢꆰ죽풪싛ꆱ폫죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄맘쾵맺뗄쓚늿뻹뫢쒿뇪ꆢ냑컒맺죋쏱뇒믣싊쮮욽뗄컈뚨쫓캪췢늿떱뷱쫀뷧룷맺뺭볃뗄퓋탐벸뫵뚼뿉틔쮵쫇퓚튻룶죽풪뷡뻹뫢쒿뇪,쓇쎴헢룶ꆰ죽풪싛ꆱ춬쪱튲룦쯟컒쏇:튻떩컒릹훐퓋탐ꆣ춬퇹,첸떽믣싊훆뛈뗄뇤룼,컒쏇뇘좻믡쿫웰헢맺맺볊뷰쇷뚯늻컈뚨쟩뿶랢짺,컒맺붫쓑틔쪵쿖쓚췢뻹뫢룶뺭뗤뗄ꆰ죽풪뷡릹ꆱ(Triplestructures)ꆣꆰ죽풪뷡릹ꆱ폖놻뗄춬쪱쪵쿖ꆣ돆캪ꆰ죽풪싛ꆱ,(Trilemma)쫇횸훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟ퟔ좻뛸헢룶뺭뗤뗄ꆰ죽풪싛ꆱ늢늻쓜놣횤:퓚컒맺놾훷ꆢ컈뚨뗄만뚨믣싊헾닟뫍뾪럅뺭볃훐췪좫ퟔ평뗄맺볊놾폫뷰죚헋뮧췪좫뾪럅뫳맺볊놾뗄췪좫ퟔ평쇷뚯볙짨늻듦쇷뚯헢죽쿮뇋듋볤쿠뮥틀삵;떫쫇떱듦퓚웤훐뗄튻쿮쪱,쇭퓚,틔벰퓚만뚨뗄죋쏱뇒믣싊헾닟뗄볙뚨쟩뿶쿂,컒맺훐퇫췢솽쿮훁짙폐튻쿮늻듦퓚,벴늻뿉쓜죽헟볦뗃(춼1)ꆣ틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷튻뚨쓜릻쪵쿖;춬퇹늻쓜놣횤,퓚컒맺죧맻냑ꆰ죽풪싛ꆱ폃떽컒맺떱훐,쓇쎴ꆰ죽풪싛ꆱ놾폫뷰죚헋뮧췪좫뾪럅뫳맺볊놾췪좫평ퟔ평뗄쇷뚯볙짨룦쯟컒쏇:컒맺훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷ꆢ만뚨뗄죋쏱뇒믣듦퓚,틔벰퓚뢡뚯뗄죋쏱뇒믣싊헾닟쟩뿶쿂컒맺훐퇫틸탐뗄싊헾닟틔벰퓚컒맺놾폫뷰죚헋뮧췪좫뾪럅뫳맺볊놾뗄췪믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷튻뚨쓜릻쪵쿖ꆣ쿂쏦붫럖뇰폃Mendel2Fleming좫ퟔ평쇷뚯뻟폐훘튪뗄뫪맛뺭볃몭틥:11죧맻컒맺퓚놾폫쒣탍뫍Mendel2Fleming2Dormbusch쒣탍살뻟쳥쮵쏷,늢뗃돶뷰죚헋뮧췪좫뾪럅뫳쪵쿖쇋맺볊놾췪좫ퟔ평뗄쇷뚯,쓇쎴뷡싛:컒맺죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱늻쓜틔컒맺훐퇫틸탐뗄믵컒맺뿉틔쪵쿖맺볊뷰죚쳥쾵튻쳥뮯,쳡룟컒맺놾뗄맺볊엤뇒헾닟ퟔ훷ퟷ캪훷튪틀뻝,컞싛퓚뾪럅뺭볃훐뮹쫇퓚럢뇕뺭훃킧싊;21죧맻컒맺훐퇫틸탐쪵쿖쇋췪좫뗄믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷,볃훐,컒맺훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟔ훷뚼믡쫜떽튻뚨뗄훆뻍틢캶ퟅ컒맺뗄믵뇒헾닟췪좫뛀솢폚췢늿틲쯘,쓇쎴컒맺뻍풼,늻쓜폃쯼살뻶뚨죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱ꆣ뿉틔폐킧뗘헫뛔놾맺뗄맺쓚닺돶뫍볛룱쮮욽뗄늨뚯뷸탐쫊쪱뛾ꆢMendel2Fleming쒣탍뗄뗷헻;31죧맻컒맺쪵쿖만뚨뗄죋쏱뇒믣싊헾닟,폐훺폚컒쒣탍볙뚨:맺맺쓚췢볛룱쮮욽뗄쿠뛔컈뚨,듓뛸뻍폐샻폚컒맺뗄맺볊쎳11컒맺놾폫뷰죚헋뮧췪좫캴뾪럅,맺볊놾쫐뎡뗄틗폫맺볊춶ꆣ죧맻냑컒맺훐퇫틸탐뛀솢뗄믵뇒헾닟쫓캪컒뷰췪좫늻쇷뚯;[쫕룥죕웚]ꆡ2004ꆪ10ꆪ17[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ샮뮳뚨(1981ꆪ),쓐,뷰죚톧늩쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣꆪ128ꆪ
21컒맺죋쏱뇒떱잰뗄믣싊쮮욽늻뇤,죋쏱뇒믣싊쪵탐만11퓚컒맺놾폫뷰죚헋뮧췪좫뾪럅뗄쟩뿶쿂,맺볊놾뚨믣싊훆;췪좫ퟔ평쇷뚯;31맺쓚췢닺욷볛룱뇤뮯훍뫳,벴놾맺폫맺췢뗄짌욷볛룱21컒맺죋쏱뇒떱잰뗄믣싊쮮욽뿉뇤,죋쏱뇒믣싊쪵탐뢡퓚뛌웚쓚늻뇤;뚯믣싊훆;31컒맺릫훚뻟폐샭탔뗄풤웚(헢튻볙짨훁맘훘튪,뫳컄붫쳡떽);41맺쓚췢짺닺늿쏅뛔볛룱뇤뚯뗄랴펦훍뫳,벴맺쓚췢닺욷볛룱뇤뮯뮺싽;컒맺믵뇒쫐뎡뛔볛룱뗄뇤뚯랴펦톸쯙,벴컒맺놾쫐뎡뛔샻싊뇤뮯뗄랴펳뷏캪톸쯙ꆣ쒣탍뇭듯쪽:y=hꇁ(s+p+p3)+jꇁy-fꇁi+gꋈ춼m=kꇁy-lꇁiꋉ1ꆡ뺭볃퓋탐훐뗄ꆰ죽풪싛ꆱhꇁ(s+p+p3)-rꇁy+nꇁ3(i-i)=0ꋊ쒣탍:y=hꇁ(s+p+p3)+jꇁy-fꇁi+gꋅ웤훐3:i듺뇭맺췢놾쫐뎡짏뗄샻싊,볙뚨캪늻뇤뗄뚨m=kꇁy-lꇁiꋆ횵;n뇭쪾놾헊뮧닮뛮뛔맺쓚췢샻싊닮뗄랴펦쏴룐쾵쫽;hꇁ(s+p+p3)-rꇁy=0ꋇ웤쯼럻뫅몬틥춬짏ꆣ웤훐:y듺뇭맺쏱쫕죫;h듺뇭뺭뎣쿮쒿닮뛮뛔컒맺죋뇭듯쪽몬틥:ꋈꆢꋉ뇭듯쪽럖뇰춬뇭듯쪽ꋅꆢꋆ몬틥ꆣ쏱뇒헦쪵믣싊뗄랴펦쏴룐돌뛈;s듺뇭떱잰믣싊(폃횱뷓뇪뇭듯쪽ꋊ늻춬폚뇭듯쪽ꋇ쫇틲캪듋뒦맺볊쫕횧욽뫢뾼싇쇋맺볛램뇭쪾);p듺뇭컒맺짌욷볛룱,p3듺뇭맺췢짌욷뗄볛룱볊놾쇷뚯쟩뿶,벴뺭뎣쿮쒿뫍놾폫뷰죚헋뮧쿮쒿횮뫍캪(sꆢpꆢp3뻹캪뛔쫽탎쪽,s+p+p3뇭쪾떥캻맺췢짌욷쯹뮻쇣ꆣ좡뗄놾맺짌욷쫽솿,벴헦쪵믣싊뗄뛔쫽탎쪽);j듺뇭뇟볊쿻룹뻝쒣탍볙뚨,평뇭듯쪽ꋉ뿉횪,떱컒맺뺭볃돶쿖탨쟳럑쟣쿲폫뇟볊뷸돶쟣쿲횮닮;f듺뇭샻싊뛔춶뗄랴펦쏴룐늻ퟣ쪱,컒맺훐퇫틸탐닉좡삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟쪹뗃m짏짽(죔쾵쫽;g듺뇭헾뢮횧돶;m듺뇭컒맺맺쓚뗄믵뇒탨쟳솿;k좻늻뾼싇닆헾헾닟),컒맺샻싊쮮욽i뇘뚨톸쯙쿂붵;평맺볊듺뇭믵뇒탨쟳솿뛔쫕죫뗄랴펦쏴룐쾵쫽;l듺뇭믵뇒탨쟳솿놾뗄췪좫ퟔ평쇷뚯뿉횪,퓚컒맺뗄샻싊쮮욽i톸쯙쿂붵뗄뛔샻싊뗄랴펦쏴룐쾵쫽;r듺뇭컒맺뇟볊뷸돶뿚쟣쿲,늢볙춬쪱,놾쫐뎡돶쿖듳맦쒣뗄놾쫤돶믲놾췢쳓;듓뛸틽짨캪헽,헢퓚marshell-lerner쳵볾돉솢뗄쟩뿶쿂뿉틔돉솢ꆣ웰놾뇒벱쯙뇡횵,쪹뗃s짏짽;평랽돌ꋈ뿉횪,컒맺맺쏱쫕뇭듯쪽몬틢럖뇰쫇:뇭듯쪽ꋅ뇭쪾컒맺맺쓚짌욷쫐뎡뗄죫쮮욽y붫짏짽,떫평폚닺욷쫐뎡짏뗄훍뫳틲쯘,컒맺맺쏱ퟜ릩쟳욽뫢,웤훐짌욷ퟜ탨쟳평쿻럑ꆢ춶ꆢ뷸돶뿚폫헾뢮쫕죫쮮욽y짏짽뗄쯙뛈뇘뚨뇈뷏싽,듓뛸평랽돌ꋉ뿉횪,컒횧돶ퟩ돉;뇭듯쪽ꋆ뇭쪾컒맺맺쓚믵뇒탨쟳뗄뻶뚨뇭듯쪽,맺믵뇒쫐뎡짏뗄샻싊i뇘뚨튲짏짽;ퟮ훕폖틽웰맺볊놾뗄듋뒦볙뚨믵뇒탨쟳평뒫춳뗄틲쯘뻶뚨,늢틾몬ퟅ믵뇒쫐뎡쪼듳맦쒣쇷죫믲놾쇷돶뗄복짙,듓뛸쪹뗃컒맺죋쏱뇒뗄짽횵훕뒦폚뻹뫢ힴ첬;뇭듯쪽ꋇ뇭쪾맺볊쫕횧뻹뫢,듋뒦맺볊쫕믲뇡횵럹뛈붵뗍ꆣ폃쿟탎랽쿲춼뇭쪾(춼3):횧폠뛮횸뺭뎣쿮쒿쫕횧,헢퓚놾췪좫늻쇷뚯뗄볙짨쟩뿶쿂돉솢ꆣ룹뻝쒣탍볙뚨,평뇭듯쪽ꋇ뿉횪떱컒맺쪵탐컈뚨뗄죋쏱뇒믣싊헾닟쪱떱잰뗄맺볊쫕횧듯떽욽뫢,벴y=r/hꇁ(s+p+p3)캪뚨횵,볙뚨웤캪y0;쿖퓚볙짨떱웚컒맺뺭볃뒦폚탨쟳늻ퟣힴ첬,벴y춼3ꆡ죋쏱뇒뢡뚯믣싊훆쿂뗄훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷즥쪧쿟탔춼full>y0(yfull뇭쪾돤럖뻍튵쟩뿶쿂뗄맺쏱쫕죫),헾뢮떱잰횻폐믵뇒헾닟뿉폃폚뛔뢶떱잰뺭볃탎쫆(듋ꆡꆡ퓚짏쫶뗷헻맽돌훐,평폚샭탔풤웚뗄듦퓚(볙짨3),돶뒦늻뾼싇닆헾헾닟);늢볙뚨헾뢮(퓚컒맺튲벴퇫탐)캪쇋쿖쇋믣싊뎬뗷쿖쿳(overshooting),벴컒맺퇫탐믵뇒릩룸뗄삭뚯ퟜ탨쟳,쪵쿖돤럖뻍튵,닉좡삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟,쪹뗃y0튻듎탔퓶볓틔뫳,놾뇒믣싊뗄쮲쪱뇡횵돌뛈듳폚웤뎤웚뇡횵짏짽듯떽y돌뛈ꆣfull쮮욽;떫쫇튻떩y>y0=yfull,ퟮ훕떼훂ퟜ탨쟳돶쿖늻ퟣ,룹뻝뇭듯쪽ꋇ,컒맺맺볊쫕횧돶쿖쓦닮쟷쫆,돶죋쏱뇒믣싊뎬뗷쿖쿳뗄랢짺틽웰컒맺맺쓚뺭볃뗄뻧쇒늨쿖뇡횵쟷쫆;뛸헾뢮캪쇋컈뚨믣싊,뇘탫붵뗍맺쓚죋쏱뇒믣뚯,쮵쏷퓚뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂,훐퇫틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟컞램췪좫싊믵뇒릩룸,쪹m쿂붵,ퟮ훕떼훂ퟜ탨쟳돶쿖늻ퟣꆣ내헕풤웚뗄삩헅탔헾닟쫖뛎살컈뚨맺쓚뺭볃,훐퇫틸탐뗄믵틲듋,듓뎤웚살뾴,떱ퟮ훕떼훂ퟜ탨쟳돶쿖늻ퟣ,컒맺뇒헾닟ퟔ훷쫜떽훆풼ꆣ뺭볃돶쿖ퟜ탨쟳늻ퟣ쪱,헾뢮캪쇋쪵쿖돤럖뻍튵뗄쒿뇪,닉뷡싛:퓚컒맺놾폫뷰죚헋뮧쿮쒿췪좫뾪럅횮뫳,죋쏱좡삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟;떫폖평폚만뚨뗄죋쏱뇒믣싊헾닟,쪹뗃뇒믣싊훆뛈톡퓱늻쓜틀삵폚믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷헢튻틀뻝ꆣ믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷ퟮ훕컞킧,벴믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷즥쪧ꆣ폃쿟탎랽쿲쯄ꆢퟜꆡ뷡춼뇭쪾(춼2):퓚맺볊놾쫐뎡췪좫ퟔ평쇷뚯쿂쪵탐죋쏱뇒뢡뚯믣싊헾닟늢늻쓜놣횤믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷,틲듋컒맺퓚죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈톡퓱쪱,늻싛퓚놾쿮쒿뾪럅횮잰뮹쫇퓚뾪럅횮뫳,뚼늻쓜냑ꆰ죽풪싛ꆰ뾴돉쫇볈뚨뗄믣싊훆뛈톡퓱샭쓮ꆣ좻뛸,쇭튻랽쏦,훐맺뺭볃뗄뾪럅쯦ퟅ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뷸돌뗄볓뿬,뇤뗃풽춼2ꆡ죋쏱뇒만뚨믣싊훆쿂뗄훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷즥쪧쿟탔춼살풽늻뿉뇜쏢,틲듋훐퇫틸탐캪쇋룼뫃뗘잿뮯믵뇒헾닟ퟔꆡꆡ쪵볊짏훷,쯻쏇횻쓜춨맽웤쯻랽램폫춾뺶좥뷢뻶,뛸늻쓜춨맽죋쏱,퓚MENDELL-FLEMMING쒣탍훐,컞싛퓚맺볊놾뗄췪좫ퟔ평쇷뚯,뮹쫇퓚맺볊놾뗄늻췪좫ퟔ평쇷뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄뇤룼좥뷢뻶ꆣ뚯틔벰맺볊놾췪좫쇷뚯쿂,횻튪쪵탐만뚨뗄믣싊훆뛈,믵[닎뾼컄쿗]뇒헾닟ퟔ훷뻍쪧킧ꆣ\[1\]뗋샖욽,럫폃뢻,뷺훘컄.뢡뚯믣싊훆쿂믵뇒헾닟뷡싛톡퓱뗄뛀솢탔\[J\].뷰죚퇐뺿,2002,(3).:듋쒣탍쮵쏷퓚컒맺떱잰뗄놾폫뷰죚헋뮧짐캴췪좫뾪럅쳵볾쿂,죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱늻쓜틀삵폚컒맺훐퇫\[2\]탭컄뇲.죽풪싛쿂컒맺믣싊훆뛈룄룯첽컶\[J\].닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿,2003,(7).틸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟ퟔ훷헢튻쳵볾ꆣ\[3\]쯯뮪.ꆰ늻뿉쓜죽뷇ꆱ늻쓜ퟷ캪훐맺믣싊훆뛈톡죽ꆢMendel2Fleming2Dornbusch쒣탍퓱뗄틀뻝\[J\].맺볊뷰죚퇐뺿,2004,(8)1쒣탍볙뚨:[퓰죎뇠벭:탭풾믔]ꆪ129ꆪ
