ֻ24ज ֻ3௹ሱ ಖ ሧ ჷ ࿐ БVol124No1 32009୍3ᄅJOURNALOFNATURALRESOURCESMar.,200 9ࡾ්സളቀࠖაࣜ࠶ᄹӉܱ༢֥࠹ਈٳ༅梅 艳,何蓓蓓,刘友兆(ଲࣘ୪ြն࿐܄܋ܵ࿐ჽ,ଲࣘ210095)ᅋေ:ሸކႋႨളቀࠖaླྀᆜંࠣ༂ҵྩᆞଆ,ٳ༅ਔࡾ්സሧჷཨݻაࣜ࠶ᄹӉᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢b࠹ෘਔࡾ්സ1985~2006୍֥ളቀࠖࠣିჷቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖaҤֹቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖaࡹᇽቀࠖaඣთቀࠖ,ᄝՎࠎԤഈ,ؓGDPა۲ᇕളቀࠖᆭࡗ֥Ӊ௹नޙܱ༢აၹݔܱ༢ࣉྛ࠹ਈٳ༅bࢲݔіૼ:GDPაሹളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖᆭࡗթᄝླྀᆜܱ༢,ሹളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖ൞GDP֥ֆཟGrangerჰၹ,ਟֹቀࠖაGDPᆭࡗ൞චཟ֥Grangerჰၹbѩࡹ৫ਔGDPაሹളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖᆭࡗ֥༂ҵྩᆞଆ,০Ⴈଆٳ༅ؿགྷ؋௹ѯཟӉ௹नޙ֥࣍טᆜږ؇ղ֞91184%b࣮ࢲંࢣൕਔࡾ්സ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉٚൔඋႿሧჷཨݻ,ሹളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖ൞႕ཙࡾ්സࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇶေჰၹbၹՎ,сྶކ০Ⴈሧჷ,ࡆ఼ളߌЌ,טᆜӁြࢲܒ,ؿᅚ࿖ߌࣜ࠶,ၛൌགྷࡾ්സሧჷaߌaࣜ࠶ᆭࡗ֥ॖӻ࿃ؿᅚbܱ Ս:ളቀࠖ;ླྀᆜ;Grangerܱ༢;༂ҵྩᆞଆ;ॖӻ࿃ؿᅚᇏٳোݼ:F06212 ໓ངѓ്:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1000-3037(2009)03-0476-071 ႄ୍࣍ࠫট,ෛሢࣜ࠶ӻ࿃ᄹӉ,ࡾ්സದन൬ೆඣ҂؎ิۚ,ཨٮି৯ᇯࡶᄹ఼,ؓ୪ӁaਟӁބିჷ֩۲ᇕሧჷ֥ླਈࠤखᄹࡆ,طࡾ්സሧჷ؋ಌགྷའಏ௴ђթᄝ,ሧჷশٮބߌರၭذ߄֩໙ีರၭᇗ,ሧჷaߌބࣜ࠶ᆀᆭࡗ֥ླྀטؿᅚ૫ਢऍն֥৯bሧჷ֥ކषؿ০Ⴈაࣜ࠶ؿᅚᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢࣮ၘࣜӮູ႕ཙഠ߶ބࣜ࠶൞ڎॖӻ࿃ؿᅚ֥ᇗေଽಸbҩෘࣜ࠶ᇶุ֥ሧჷཨٮބ٬་൬ඣ֥ളቀࠖمॖၛႨটّ႘ሧჷ০Ⴈሑঃაࣜ࠶ؿᅚᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢,ଢభႵܱളቀࠖაࣜ࠶ؿᅚܱ༢֥࣮ၘࣜ౼֤ਔ҂ഒӮݔ,Ⴕܱ࣮іૼ,ളቀࠖэ߄აࣜ࠶ؿᅚᆭࡗթᄝۚ؇֥ཌྷܱྟ,ࣜ࠶ؿᅚ൞ളቀࠖэ߄֥ᇗေ౺৯,ᄝඌ൭؍ႋႨٚ૫؟ҐႨ؟ჭཌྟ݂߭ٳ༅֩ඔ࿐ٚمটࢣൕэਈᆭࡗ֥ཌྷܱܱ༢[1~5]bطཌྷܱٳ༅a݂߭ٳ༅ᆺିіགྷэਈᆭࡗ֥৳༢ࣅૡӱ؇,ѩ҂ࢳथэਈᆭࡗ֥ཌྷቔႨބཌྷ႕ཙࠏᇅ໙ี[6],ၹՎೂޅࢣൕэਈࡗཌྷܱܱ༢Мު֥Чᇉ৳༢ߎླࣉ၂҄ٳ༅bෛሢ࣮ٚم֥҂؎ؿᅚ,ླྀᆜٳ༅აGrangerၹݔܱ༢ဒٚمູࢳथᆃུ໙ีิ܂ਔྍ֥൪࢘bЧ໓Ֆޡܴ࢘؇,ဒࡾ්സളቀࠖაࣜ࠶ؿᅚᆭࡗ൞ڎթᄝӉ௹नޙܱ༢აၹݔܱ༢,ѩᄝՎࠎԤഈิԛ՜ࣉࡾ්സሧჷaߌ൬۠ರ௹:2008-06-24;ྩרರ௹:2008-11-06bࠎࣁཛଢ:ݓࡅࢭԛౝ୍॓࿐ࠎࣁሧᇹཛଢ(70425002)bֻ၂ቔᆀࡥࢺ:઼ဇ(1983-),୯,ފଲഅ౭ದ,Ѱൖ࣮ള,࣮ٚཟֹູሧჷܵaֹሧჷॖӻ࿃০ႨbE-mai:l2006209010@
3௹઼ ဇ֩:ࡾ්സളቀࠖაࣜ࠶ᄹӉܱ༢֥࠹ਈٳ༅4 77aࣜ࠶ॖӻ࿃ؿᅚ֥ཌྷܱࡹၰb2 ࣮ٚمაඔऌԩ211 ࣮ٚمളቀࠖ(EcologicalFootprin,tEF)ᇶေႨট࠹ෘᄝ၂ק֥ದ१ބࣜ࠶ܿଆ่ࡱ༯,ົӻሧჷཨٮބ٬ఙ་൬෮сླ֥ੂোളളӁֹ૫ࠒbః܄ൔॖၛіൕູ:nnEF=EaiAi=EaiPi+I1)i-E/Yi(ii=1i=1ൔᇏ,aiູनޙၹሰ;Aiֻູiᇕཨٮཛଢᅼෘ֥ದनᅝႵ֥ളളӁ૫ࠒ(ದनളቀࠖٳਈ);Piֻູiᇕཨٮཛଢ୍֥ളӁਈ;Iiֻູiᇕཨٮཛଢ୍֥ࣉ१ਈ;Eiֻູiᇕཨٮཛଢ୍֥ԛ१ਈ;Yiֻູiᇕཨٮཛଢ֥ളളӁֹनӁਈ;EFູሹളቀࠖbླྀᆜٳ༅ა༂ҵྩᆞଆ֩ࣜ࠶࠹ਈٚمູ࣮٤໗эਈᆭࡗ֥नޙܱ༢აཌྷ႕ཙิ܂ਔં၇ऌބ൭؍bླྀᆜ൞ᆷਆ۱ࠇਆ۱ၛഈ֥٤໗ൈࡗਙ֥ཌྟቆކିܒӮ໗֥ൈࡗਙ,ᄵӫᆃུ٤໗֥ൈࡗਙ൞ླྀᆜ֥,ՖطඪૼᆃུэਈᆭࡗթᄝӉ௹֥नޙܱ༢[7]bླྀᆜܱ༢ᆺّ႘эਈᆭࡗ֥Ӊ௹नޙܱ༢,҂ିّ႘؋௹ܱ༢,ᆃࣼླေࡹ৫ّ႘؋௹ொӉ௹नޙ֥༂ҵྩᆞࠏᇅb༂ҵྩᆞଆ֥၂Ϯྙൔ:ູ$Yt=X+KECMt-1+EDi$Xt-i+ECi$Yt-i+E(2)tൔᇏ,$Yt൞Y֥၂ࢨҵٳ,$Xt-iބ$Yt-i൞XބY၂ࢨҵٳ֥ᇌުཛ;ECMt-1ູ༂ҵྩᆞཛ,ّ႘эਈ֥Ӊ௹नޙܱ༢;KູӉ௹༢ඔ;DiູYؓX֥؋௹ྟ;Ci൞Y൳֞ሱദᇌުཛ႕ཙ֥ӱ؇bളቀࠖაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ླྀᆜٳ༅ࠣ༂ҵྩᆞଆ֥ࡹ৫,ࡼࢣൕૌᆭࡗ൞ڎթᄝӉ௹नޙܱ༢ၛࠣ؋௹ѯཟӉ௹नޙ֥࣍טᆜږ؇b212 ඔऌԩ(1)ࣜ࠶ؿᅚᆷѓ:ҐႨݓଽളӁሹᆴ(GDP)ޙਈࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ,ູཨԢࡎ۬ၹؓGDP֥႕ཙ,ࡼ۲୍؇GDPᅼෘູ1985୍ॖбࡎ,ඔऌটჷႿࡾ්࠹୍b(2)ളቀࠖᆷѓ:࿊౼ളቀࠖZaିჷቀࠖHZa۶ֹቀࠖGZaҤֹቀࠖCZaਟֹቀࠖSZaࡹᇽቀࠖJZaඣთቀࠖWZ,ູक़ڛඔऌᇏ֥ၳٚҵ,ؓэਈ౼ؓඔѩٳљ࠺ູLZaLHZaLGZaLCZaLSZaLJZaLWZbളቀ֥ࠖཨٮᇶေႵളሧჷཨٮ(୪ӁaӁބਟӁ)ބିჷཨٮ,ඔऌটჷႿࡾ්࠹୍b3 ࠹ਈٳ༅֥ࢲݔ:ࠎႿ1985~2006୍ඔऌ֥ٳ༅311 эਈਙ֥໗ྟဒࠣٳ༅ဒэਈࡗ൞ڎऎႵླྀᆜܱ༢ᆭభ,൮༵ေဒඔऌ֥໗ྟb໗ྟ֥ӈႨဒٚم൞ൕمაֆ໊۴ဒمbֆ໊۴ဒ[8]ॖၛႨটಒק۲۱٤໗эਈ֥ֆᆜࢨඔ,Ч໓ҐႨADFֆ໊۴ဒ,ᄝЌᆣҗҵཌྷ҂ཌྷܱ֥భิ༯,ൈҐႨAICބSCቋཬሙᄵ,ቔູቋࡄൈᇌ֥ѓሙbႮі1ॖᆩ,ᄝ5%֥ཁᇷඣ༯,۲ਙ֥٤໗ྟ൞٤ӈཁᇷ֥,၂ࢨҵٳު,ਙLGDPaLZaLHZaLGZaLSZ֥ADFဒᆴनཬႿ5%ཁᇷඣ༯֥ਢࢸᆴ,іૼᆃ5۱ਙၘࣜ໗,൞၂ࢨֆᆜਙ,ॖၛࣉ၂҄ဒૌᆭࡗ൞ڎթᄝӉ௹ླྀᆜܱ༢b
4 78ሱ ಖ ሧ ჷ ࿐ Б24जі1 ֆ໊۴ဒࢲݔTable1 UnitroottestэਈADFᆴဒো(c,t,n)5%ਢࢸᆴDW൞ڎ໗LGDP-218639(c,t,1)-316591210829ڎLZ-017087(c,t,0)-316454211602ڎLHZ-013953(c,t,0)-314387119950ڎLGZ-216732(c,t,0)-316454211143ڎLCZ-312058(c,t,1)-316591119958ڎLSZ-315264(c,t,1)-316591119780ڎLJZ-211250(c,t,1)-316591117779ڎLWZ-111097(c,t,1)-316591210520ڎDLGDP-311109(c,0,1)-310294211076൞DLZ-417287(c,0,0)-310199210067൞DLHZ-410200(c,0,0)-310199210146൞DLGZ-615943(0,0,0)-119592119421൞DLCZ-219842(c,0,2)-310400210391ڎDLSZ-418767(0,0,1)-119602119776൞DLJZ-217544(c,t,1)-316746118747ڎDLWZ-215479(c,0,0)-310199210887ڎ ᇿ:Dіൕ၂ࢨҵٳ,Cіൕࢩए,tіൕൈࡗ൝,nіൕᇌުࢨඔb312 эਈᆭࡗ֥ླྀᆜܱ༢ဒࢲݔࠣٳ༅ଢభླྀᆜܱ༢ဒაܙ࠹֥ඌଆႵEGਆ҄مaJohansenࠞնරಖمaGregory,Hansan(1996)مaሱ݂߭ٳ҃ᇌުଆ(ARDL)ٚم,֩Ч໓ҐႨJohansenࠞնරಖم[9],ࠧ๙ݖරಖб࠹ਈট؎LGDPაLZaLHZaLGZaLSZᆭࡗ֥ླྀᆜܱ༢,ఃᇏቋႪᇌު௹۴ऌAICބSCቋཬሙᄵ؎,࿊ᄴᇌު1௹bі2 JohansenဒTable2 Johansentestหᆘ۴රಖбཁᇷྟ(5%)ཁᇷྟ(1%)ླྀᆜܱ༢۱ඔ01793668193126815276107ીႵ01696037137674712154146ᇀ؟1۱01408313156442916835165ᇀ؟2۱0111983106961514120104ᇀ؟3۱01025501516831766165ᇀ؟4۱ဒіૼ,රಖб࠹ਈնႿ5%ཁᇷඣ༯֥ਢࢸᆴ,ֻ၂۱ჰࡌഡФऋध,ࠧႵࣇႵ၂۱ླྀᆜܱ༢b္ࣼ൞ඪЇݣ5۱эਈ֥ླྀᆜٚӱ൞ື၂,֥ླྀᆜٚӱູ(ཬওݼଽູtဒᆴ):LGDP=016062LZ+010548LHZ-211668LGZ+312738LSZ+618123(3)(1610160)(718361)(-216614)(216407)(710624)R2=019878 DW=119552 F=34518818Ֆഈൔॖၛुԛ,20୍টࡾ්സݓଽളӁሹᆴაሹളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖऎႵ໗ק֥ܱ༢,ࠧӉ௹ၛটࡾ්സࣜ࠶ᄹӉაሧჷሹཨݻaିჷཨݻaਟӁཨݻa୪Ӂ
3௹઼ ဇ֩:ࡾ්സളቀࠖაࣜ࠶ᄹӉܱ༢֥࠹ਈٳ༅4 79ཨݻऎႵӉ௹໗קܱ༢,ૌ֥э߄൳ഈඍླྀᆜٚӱ֥ჿඏbሹ֥ളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖބਟֹቀࠖაࣜ࠶ᄹӉᆞཌྷ,ܱط۶ֹቀࠖაࣜ࠶ᄹӉڵཌྷܱbሹ֥ളቀࠖaିჷބਟֹቀࠖؓࡾ්സࣜ࠶ᄹӉႵ၂ק֥՜ࣉቔႨ,ః༢ඔٳљ൞016062a010548ބ312738,ሹ֥ളቀࠖૄᄹࡆ1%,ࣼ߶֤ݓളӁሹᆴഈശ016062%,ିჷቀࠖૄᄹࡆ1%,ࣼ߶֤ݓളӁሹᆴഈശ010548%,طਟֹቀࠖૄᄹࡆ1%,ࣼ߶֤ݓളӁሹᆴഈശ312738%,ఃᇏਟֹቀࠖؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥՜ࣉቔႨቋն,طିჷቀ֥ࠖ՜ࣉቔႨՑᆭb୍࣍ট,ࡾ්സն৯ؿᅚဗඎӁြaᇕ૬ӁြࠣၿྞӁြ֩3ཛਟြᇶ֝Ӂြ,ఃؿᅚܿଆބӁᆴनᄝಆݓᅝႵᇗေֹ໊,՜ࣉਔݓࣜ࠶֥ᄹӉbࡾ්സ൞ׅ֥ିჷൻೆֹ,Ӊ௹ၛটિaaႲaᄎԩႿࣅᅦሑ,ݓࡅିჷࡎ֥۬ᆟҦטᆜႻࠪਔ۽ြࣜ࠶֥০,ᆃུ֝ᇁਔିჷ໙ีӮູࡾ්സࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ᇅჿၹb۶ֹቀࠖؓࣜ࠶֥ᄹӉႵ၂ק֥ၝᇅቔႨ,۶ֹቀࠖૄᄹࡆ1%,ࣼ߶֤ݓളӁሹᆴ༯ࢆ211668%b313 эਈᆭࡗ֥ၹݔܱ༢ဒࢲݔࠣٳ༅۴ऌླྀᆜဒࢲݔ,LGDPაLZaLHZaLGZaLSZᆭࡗթᄝླྀᆜܱ༢,ᆃᇕܱ༢൞ڎܒӮၹݔܱ༢,ࠧሱэਈ൞ڎ൞LGDPэ֥ჰၹ,LGDP൞ڎႻ൞ሱэਈэ֥ჰၹߎླࣉ၂҄ဒᆣbGrangerބSinsิԛၹݔܱ༢ဒ,ࠧэਈᆭࡗ൞ڎթᄝGrangerၹݔܱ༢ॖၛ๙ݖဒVARଆطປӮbᄝဒᇏೂݔF࠹ਈնႿཌྷႋཁᇷඣ༯֥ਢࢸᆴ,ᄵऋधჰࡌഡ,֤֞ࢲંXtؓYtթᄝGrangerၹݔܱ༢b০Ⴈھٚمؓၹэਈაࢳэਈਆਆဒ,ࢲݔі3bі3 ၹݔܱ༢Table3 GrangerCausalityэਈܱ༢ਬࡌഡᇌުࢨඔF࠹ਈਬۀੱဒࢲંLGDP-LZLZ҂൞LGDP֥Grangerჰၹ5412526010534ऋधLGDP҂൞LZ֥Grangerჰၹ5111396014315҂ऋधLGDP-LHZLHZ҂൞LGDP֥Grangerჰၹ4815598010039ऋधLGDP҂൞LHZ֥Grangerჰၹ4111478013943҂ऋधLGDP-LGZLGZ҂൞LGDP֥Grangerჰၹ1111045010972ऋधLGDP҂൞LGZ֥Grangerჰၹ1110463013199҂ऋधLGDP-LSZLSZ҂൞LGDP֥Grangerჰၹ11016997010042ऋधLGDP҂൞LSZ֥Grangerჰၹ1316632010717ऋधՖі3ॖၛुԛ,ᄝ10%֥ཁᇷඣ༯,LGDPაLZaLHZaLGZᆭࡗթᄝֆཟ֥ၹݔܱ༢,ᆃඪૼሹ֥ളቀࠖaିჷቀ֥ࠖᄹࡆ൞ࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥Grangerჰၹ,ط҂൞ࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥Grangerࢲݔbᆃࣼၩሢ,ϴෛሢࡾ්സࣜ࠶֥ॹؿᅚ,նਈ֥ሧჷaିჷФཨݻ,ࣜ࠶֥ᄹӉࠣࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣ֥ิۚ൞ၛሧჷބିჷቔູᆦӪ֥,ࡾ්സ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉٚൔඋႿሧჷaିჷཨݻ,ᆃࣼॖିᄯӮᇗ֥ߌಙbਸ਼ຓ۶ֹቀ֥ࠖࡨഒ൞ࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥Grang-erჰၹ,ط҂൞ࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥Grangerࢲݔbᆃඪૼ۶ֹቀࠖ(୪Ӂ)֥ᄹࡆ߶ࡨߏࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥؇,ᆃбࢠژކࡾ්സൌ࠽ؿᅚ౦ঃ,1981~2004୍ࡗࡾ්സ֥۶ֹ҂؎ࡨഒ,ࡾ්ૣၘႮטԛэູט,ೆਁൊሱ1988୍ၛުᆺିሱ۳,҂ᄜטԛ,୪Ӂ֥ཨٮਈՖ၇ঠЧസളӁᇯࡶሇэູ၇ঠຓസט࠴bLGDPაLSZᄝ10%֥ཁᇷඣ༯թᄝචཟ֥ၹݔܱ༢,ູၹݔbᆃඪૼݓളӁሹᆴ֥໗קิۚ߶՜ਟֹቀ֥ࠖᄹࡆ,္ࠧঔնਟြሧჷ֥ཨٮਈ,طਟြሧჷཨٮ֥ᄹ
4 80ሱ ಖ ሧ ჷ ࿐ Б24जࡆႻ߶՜ࣉݓളӁሹᆴ֥ิ,ۚؽᆀཌྷ՜ࣉb୍࣍ࠫࡾ්സ֥ਟြӁြؿᅚ,ਟြӁြሹӁᆴၛૄ୍88100@10ჭ֥؇־ᄹ,Ⴎ2001୍֥҂ቀ100@10ჭղ֞ਔ2006୍8716@10ჭ,ࠞն֥՜ࣉਔࣜ࠶֥ॹؿᅚ,ൈࣜ࠶֥ӻ࿃ᄹӉႻջਔਟӁ֥ཨٮ,ࡾ්സ൞ಆݓਟӁཨٮ֥ᇶေസٺᆭ၂b314 ༂ҵྩᆞଆഈඍླྀᆜٳ༅۳ԛਔLGDPაLZaLHZaLGZaLSZᆭࡗ֥Ӊ௹नޙܱ༢,طᆃᇕӉ௹໗קܱ༢൞ᄝݖӱ֥҂؎טᆜ༯֤ၛົӻ֥bၹՎ,ޅ၂ቆཌྷླྀᆜ֥ൈࡗਙթᄝ༂ҵྩᆞࠏᇅ,ّ႘؋௹טࢫྛູbࡹ৫؋௹ܱ༢,ࠧ൞ࡹ৫༂ҵྩᆞଆ[10]bࡼӉ௹ܱ༢ଆᇏ֥۲ᇕэਈၛ၂ࢨҵٳྙൔᇗྍࡆၛܒࡹ,ѩࡼӉ௹ܱ༢ଆ෮Ӂള֥җҵਙቔູࢳэਈႄೆb۴ऌAICაSCቋཬሙᄵބّཟྩᆞࠏᇅ,๙ݖ҂؎൫ဒ,֤֞ࢠݺ֥༂ҵྩᆞଆ(ཬওݼଽູtဒᆴ):DLGDPt=-019184ecmt-1+015123DLGDPt-1-016565DLZt-1+012407DLHZt-1-010552DLGZt-1(-414371)(310746)(-214265)(217138)(-017854)+010383DLSZt-1+010669+010389@trend(2112732)(217991)(215164)R2=018113 F=713375 LogLikehood=15711772AIC=-1116177 SC=-915765(4)ᄝഈඍଆᇏ,ն҆ٳэਈ֥༢ඔ๙ݖਔཁᇷྟဒ,Ⴍః൞ࣜ࠶ሱദѯؓࣜ࠶֥႕ཙቋູཁᇷ,༂ҵྩᆞཛ༢ඔູڵ,ژކّཟྩᆞࠏᇅbLGDP֥؋௹ѯॖၛٳࢳູਆ҆ٳ:၂҆ٳ൞؋௹ଽ༢эਈѯ֥႕ཙ,၂҆ٳ൞ொӉ௹नޙ֥႕ཙ[11]b༂ҵྩᆞཛ֥༢ඔູ-019184,ࠧ؋௹ѯொӉ௹नޙሑൈ,༢ࡼၛ(-019184)֥טᆜ৯؇ࡼ٤नޙሑঘ߭֞नޙሑbטᆜ৯؇൞бࢠն֥b༂ҵྩᆞٚӱ֥ҵٳཛّ႘ਔ؋௹ଽ༢эਈѯؓLGDP؋௹ѯ֥႕ཙbՖ݂߭༢ඔॖᆩ,DLGDPt-1aDLHZt-1aDLSZt-1აDLGDPtᆭࡗ൞ཟܱ༢,ః༢ඔٳљູ015123a012407a010383bᆃඪૼࣜ࠶֥؋௹ѯ߶ؓఃሱദӁളࢠູཁᇷ֥ᆞཟԊࠌ,ିჷቀࠖބਟֹቀ֥ࠖ؋௹ѯ္߶ؓࣜ࠶ӁളᆞཟԊࠌ,ཌྷؓࣜ࠶ሱദቔႨটඪေޓ؟,ᆀؓࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚఏ֞՜ࣉቔႨbطDLZt-1aDLGZt-1აDLGDPtᆭࡗ൞ّཟܱ༢,ᆃඪૼሹളቀࠖބ۶ֹቀ֥ࠖ؋௹ѯ߶ؓࣜ࠶ӁളڵཟԊࠌ,ః༢ඔٳљູ-016565a-010552,ၩሢሹളቀ֥ࠖѯؓࣜ࠶֥ߏࢳၝᇅቔႨࢠູཁᇷ,ط۶ֹቀ֥ࠖ؋௹ѯӁള֥ၝᇅቔႨ҂ૼཁb4 ᇶေࢲંაࡹၰ411 ᇶေࢲં(1)ࡾ්സ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉაሹളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖᆭࡗթᄝື၂֥ླྀᆜܱ༢,ࠧૌᆭࡗթᄝӉ௹໗ק֥नޙܱ༢bᆃඪૼࡾ්സ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉაሧჷཨݻऎႵӉ௹֥ཌྷܱྟ,ࣜ࠶֥ӻ࿃ᄹӉၛളሧჷ֥ཨݻູ၇ກ,ൈሧჷ֥षؿ০ႨႻၛࣜ࠶ᄹӉູభิ,ؽᆀᆭࡗཌྷቔႨb(2)๙ݖGrangerၹݔܱ༢ဒॖᆩ,ሹളቀࠖaିჷቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖ൞ݓଽളӁሹᆴGDP֥Grangerჰၹ,طGDPႻ൞ਟֹቀ֥ࠖGrangerჰၹbᆃඪૼሧჷཨݻ(ሹളቀࠖ)aିჷ(ିჷቀࠖ)a୪Ӂ(۶ֹቀࠖ)aਟӁ(ਟֹቀࠖ)൞႕ཙࡾ්സࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇶေჰၹ,ൈࣜ࠶֥ᄹӉ္൞႕ཙࡾ්സਟӁ(ਟֹቀࠖ)ཨݻ֥ᇶေ
3௹઼ ဇ֩:ࡾ්സളቀࠖაࣜ࠶ᄹӉܱ༢֥࠹ਈٳ༅4 81ၹb(3)๙ݖ༂ҵྩᆞଆॖᆩ,༂ҵྩᆞཛ֥༢ඔູڵ,ژކّཟྩᆞࠏᇅ,֒؋௹ѯொनޙሑൈ,༢ၛ-019184֥טᆜ৯؇ཟӉ௹नޙሑ൬৻bିჷቀࠖaਟֹቀࠖაGDP൞ཟэ,طሹ֥ളቀࠖa۶ֹቀࠖაGDP൞ّཟэ;Ֆ؋௹ѯ֥႕ཙӱ؇,ुሹളቀࠖ>ିჷቀࠖ>۶ֹቀࠖ>ਟֹቀࠖb412 ཌྷܱࡹၰࡾ්സӻ࿃֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ҂षնਈሧჷ֥ཨݻ,طᄝଢభሧჷ܂۳҂ቀ֥౦ঃ༯,ࡾ්സሧჷশٮaߌذ߄֥໙ีರၭԛ,ູЌᆣࡾ්സࣂު֥ࣜ࠶ିܔӻ࿃aॹaࡲूؿᅚ,ቋᇔൌགྷࡾ්സሧჷaߌაࣜ࠶ᆭࡗ֥ॖӻ࿃ؿᅚ,ॖၛҐ౼ၛ༯ծീ:(1)ކ০Ⴈሧჷ,ࡆ఼ളߌЌbሧჷ؋ಌބሧჷ০Ⴈ఼؇ݖۚ൞ࡾ්സࣜ࠶ᄹӉࡼӉ௹૫ਢ֥؛bଢభࡾ්സದ१ࠎඔݖնaࣜ࠶ᄹӉ؇ࢠॹ,طሧჷթਈཌྷؓ҂ቀaളࠎԤࢠູգ,ᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯,ೂޅކႨሱಖሧჷ,Ќݺളߌ,Ֆطົӻ၂۱҂эࠇᄹࡆ֥ሧჷթਈ,൞ࡾ්സࣜ࠶ିڎॖӻ࿃ؿᅚ֥ᇗေభิb(2)טᆜӁြࢲܒ,ؿᅚ࿖ߌࣜ࠶bՙ٢ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֝ᇁ֥ࢲܒྟಙ൞ࡾ්സሧჷބߌ໙ี֥ᇶေ໙ีbඌඣ֮aሧჷିჷཨݻۚaӁြࢲܒބ۽ြ҃अ҂ކࡆखਔߌಙބളߊbၹՎႋҐႨྍ֥ଆൔؿᅚࣜ࠶bࡾ්സऎႵૼཁ֥ࣜ࠶aඌބ໊Ⴊ൝,ႋն৯ؿᅚ࿖ߌࣜ࠶ളӁaཨٮଆൔ,ሇэӁြࢲܒބࣜ࠶ᄹӉٚൔ֩bҕॉ໓ང(References):[1] ਾࡹྖ,ܤཫᒛ,ܼफ,֩.ᇏݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚაളቀ֥ܱࠖ༢࣮[J].ሧჷ॓࿐,2005,27(5):33~40.[LIUJian-xing,GUXiao-we,iLIGuang-jun,,2005,27(5):33-40.][2] ঠ৯,ߛ༺ࣁ,ਾਅ.თದनളቀ֥ࠖഠ߶ࣜ࠶౺ଆ[J].ሧჷ॓࿐,2006,28(1):14~18.[LAIL,iHUANGXian-jin,-economicdrivingmodelofregionalecologicalfootprint:,2006,28(1):14-18.][3] Ⴥຣफ,Ցٙ,ႃఊ,֩.ࠎႿളቀ֥ࠖሧჷࢫჿؿᅚԚฐ[J].ሱಖሧჷ࿐Б,2005,20(6):918~923.[YUWan-jun,WUC-ifang,-savingdevelopmentbasedonecologicalfootprint),2005,20(6):918-923.][4] ဗᆒ,ർ໓,ӈ߰ৡ,֩.ࠎႿളቀࠖଆ֥თളࣜ࠶ؿᅚӻ࿃ྟܙ[J].ࣜ࠶ֹ,2005,25(4):542~546.[YANGZhen,NIUShu-wen,CHANGHu-il,,2005,25(4):542-546.][5] ဗႧ,ᆽჹ.ԫ൧1994-2003୍ದनളቀࠖэ߄ࠣഠ߶ࣜ࠶ၹٳ༅[J].ۄݬֹ୪ြ࣮,2007,25(3):213~218.[YANGYong,,2007,25(3):213-218.][6] ܞᄽঘֺ.࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐(ֻϱഈҨ)[M].Кࣘ:ᇏݓದն࿐ԛϱഠ,2000.[:ChinesePeopleUniversityPress,2000.][7] RobertFEngle,:Representation,estimationandtesting[J].Economet-rica,1987,55(2):251-276.[8] ሻ.ࣁವ࠹ਈ࿐[M].ഈݚ:ഈݚҍࣜն࿐ԛϱഠ,2005.[:iShanghaiFinancialandEconomicsUniversityPress,2005.][9] ᅦק഻.࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐[M].ݱ:ݱն࿐ԛϱഠ,2000.[:WuhanUniver-sityPress,2000.][10] ്྆Ⴭ.࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐[M].Кࣘ:ۚ֩࢝ტԛϱഠ,2004.[:HigherEducationPress,2004.]
4 82ሱ ಖ ሧ ჷ ࿐ Б24ज[11] ሰ.࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐[M].Кࣘ:ۚ֩࢝ტԛϱഠ,2000.[:HigherEducationPress,2000.]EconometricAnalysisoftheRelationshipsamongEcologicalFootprintandEconomicGrowthinJiangsuMEIYan,HEBe-ibe,iLIUYou-zhao(CollegeofPublicAdministration,NanjingAgriculturalUniversity,Nanjing210095,China)Abstract:Basedontheoriesoftheecologicalfootprin,tco-integration,ErrorCorrectionMode,-logicalfootprintandenergy,arableland,pasture,forestland,,aco-integrationrelationshipexistedbetweenGDPandtheecologicalfootprin,tener-gy,,theecologicalfootprin,,theErrorCorrectionModelbetweenGDPandtheecologicalfootprin,tenergy,arablelandandforestlandfootprintwasgivenandtherangeofshorttermequilibriumclosetolongtermequilibriumwas91184%.Consequen-tly,theaboveconclusionsimpliedthattheeconomicdevelopmentinJiangsureliedonconsumptionofsubstantialresourcesinalongrunandtheecologicalfootprin,tenergy,,usingresourcesrationally,strengtheningeco-environmentprotection,:ecologicalfootprin;tco-integration;Grangercausality;errorcorrectionmode;lsustainabledevelopment
