뗚9뻭ꆡ뗚1웚쓏뺩얩튵듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)(1),쓪3퓂JournalofNanjingAgriculturalUniversity(SocialSciencesEdition)Mar.,2009췁뗘쫐뎡폫얩쏱볤췁뗘쇷ꆪꆪꆪ믹폚붭쯕탋뮯쫐ꆢ뫚쇺붭뇶쿘솽뗘뗷닩췵탋컈1,훓뢦쓾2(1.훐맺얩튵뿆톧풺맺볊얩튵얩듥랢햹퇐뺿훐탄,놱뺩100081;2.쓏뺩얩튵듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,붭쯕쓏뺩210095)햪ꆡ튪:춨뎣죏캪,쏷좷얩뮧췁뗘닺좨뫍붨솢췁뗘쫐뎡쫇삩듳얩뮧췁뗘맦쒣뫍복짙췁뗘쾸쯩뮯듓뛸퓶볓얩쏱쫕죫ꆢ쳡룟췁뗘샻폃킧싊뗄뇘튪쳵볾ꆣ컊쳢퓚폚,캪쪲쎴퓚퓊탭쓋훁맄샸췁뗘쇷뗄쟩뿶쿂쎻폐랢짺듳맦쒣뗄췁뗘쇷?닺좨뫍쫐뎡훆뛈놾짭쫇럱쓜듸살듳맦쒣췁뗘쇷?놾퇐뺿뗷닩뫍럖컶쇋얩뗘쮽폐뗄볙짨잰쳡쿂얩쏱볤췁뗘싲싴뗄틢풸,늢뷸튻늽퓋폃Logit쒣탍뾼달쇋얩쏱싴뗘틢풸뗄훷튪펰쿬틲쯘,랢쿖쿖뷗뛎췁뗘뻟폐뫜잿뻍튵놣헏릦쓜,얩쏱볤뗄췁뗘싲싴릩룸뫍탨쟳늻쓜욥엤,틲뛸닺좨뫍쫐뎡훆뛈늢늻뇘좻삩듳췁뗘쇷쫽솿ꆣ맘볼듊:췁뗘쾸쯩뮯;췁뗘쫐뎡;췁뗘싲싴훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1671ꆪ7465(2009)01ꆪ0001ꆪ06럱춨맽췪짆췁뗘닺좨ꆢ듙뷸췁뗘쫐뎡붻뮻살복짙얩튻ꆢ틽퇔뗘쾸쯩뮯쓘?뛔듋,틑폐뗄뺭퇩뫍퇐뺿늢쎻폐룸돶믘듰ꆣ퓚짏쫀볍80쓪듺뫳웚,얩튵짺닺뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈죧맻췁뗘닺좨컯좨뮯,짵훁쮽폐뮯,얩쏱볤췁럅뮺,얩뮧쫕죫훐살ퟔ얩튵뗄늿럖튲퓶뎤뮺싽ꆣ춨뗘붻뮻쫐뎡펦냼삨:얩쏱볤췁뗘싲싴쫐뎡ꆢ얩쏱볤뎣죏캪,얩튵짺닺뫍쫕죫퓶뎤뮺싽뗄풭틲퓚폚얩뮧췁뗘뮥뮻쫐뎡ꆢ얩쏱볤췁뗘ퟢ쇞쫐뎡ꆣ놾컄ퟅ훘퇐췁뗘맦쒣맽킡쟒쾸쯩뮯,뛸폫볒춥솪닺돐냼퓰죎훆뺿잰튻룶쫐뎡,뫳솽룶쫐뎡폐듽쿂튻늽짮죫퇐뺿ꆣ쿠솪쾵뗄췁뗘닺좨훆뛈퓲쫇췁뗘맦쒣킡뫍쾸쯩뮯놾컄쫔춼믘듰뗄컊쳢쫇:퓚떱잰컒맺죋뛠뗘짙ꆢ얩뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ췁뗘쾸쯩뮯샋럑쇋훐맺췁뗘폐킧쏦듥샍뚯솦맽쪣ꆢ얩듥짧믡놣헏믺훆늻췪짆ꆢ얩쏱뷸믽뗄3%-10%(Z[1]hangandHuang,1997),쪹짺돇뻍튵늻컈뗄쳘뚨놳뺰쿂,죧맻맺볒퓊탭췁뗘퓚얩닺쎿뛖마컯뗄샍뚯돉놾퓶볓쇋115풪,췁뗘짺닺싊쏱횮볤싲싴,얩쏱볤뗄췁뗘싲싴쫐뎡쓜럱붨솢웰붵뗍쇋[2]%(WanandCheng,2001)ꆣ믹폚헢살?얩쏱췁뗘싲싴틢풸죧뫎?쓜럱춨맽헢퇹뗄얩훖죏쪶,튻킩죋뫴폵룄뇤췁뗘닺좨훆뛈뗄낲업,붨쏱볤췁뗘싲싴살붵뗍얩뗘쾸쯩뮯돌뛈?솢뫍랢햹췁뗘쇷쫐뎡(동뢣쇖,췵뺰탂,쳆쳎,[1999;횣럧쳯3-4],1995),춨맽췁뗘쇷쫐뎡쪵쿖뛾ꆢ얩듥췁뗘쫐뎡릩쟳맘쾵뗄싟벭럖컶췁뗘뗄맦쒣뺭펪ꆣ뫁컞틉컊,복짙얩뮧쫽솿쿔좻폐훺폚삩듳얩뮧벴쪹얩뗘쮽폐늢퓊탭얩쏱ퟔ평싲싴,얩쏱볤뗄췁뗘쏦믽ꆢ복짙얩뗘쾸쯩뮯ꆣ죧맻얩뮧쫽솿늻뇤,췁뗘쓜럱헦헽듳맦쒣싲싴뮹튪뾴췁뗘뗄릩쟳쫇럱얩뮧욽뻹췁뗘맦쒣ퟔ좻튲늻뇤,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,쓜쓜릻욥엤ꆣ죧맻췁뗘뗄릩쟳늻쓜욥엤,헒늻떽잱퓚쫕룥죕웚:2009201205믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(70673035)ퟷ헟볲뷩:췵탋컈(1973ꆪ),쓐,훐맺얩튵뿆톧풺맺볊얩튵얩듥랢햹퇐뺿훐탄,늩쪿ꆣ퇐뺿랽쿲:얩듥랢햹ꆣ훓뢦쓾(1951ꆪ),쓐,쓏뺩얩튵듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦ꆣ퇐뺿랽쿲:얩튵뺭볃폫헾닟ꆣ1' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쓏뺩얩튵듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)뗚9뻭싲싴쮫랽릲춬뷓쫜뗄볛룱,컞싛닺좨뫍쫐뎡훆뛈죧뎡훐쫇얩뗘뗄릩룸랽ꆣ죧맻쯻쏇퓚싴뗘쪱돽쇋뺭뫎낲업뚼쓑틔탎돉뻟폐헦헽릦쓜뗄쫐뎡ꆣ틲듋,튪볃듺볛틔췢쎻폐웤쯻쒿뇪,쓇쎴,퓚듦퓚뗘뿩맦쒣퇐뺿쿖뷗뛎췁뗘쫐뎡쓜럱폐킧쪵쿖삩듳얩뮧췁뗘뺭볃ꋙ뗄쟩뿶쿂,쿠쇚뗘뿩뗄얩쏱뿉쓜뗃떽뗄뇟볊맦쒣ꆢ복짙췁뗘쾸쯩뮯뗄헾닟쒿뇪,쫗쿈튪럖컶얩쫕틦ퟮ룟,펦떱돶볛튲ퟮ룟,쾸쯩뮯돌뛈뻍뿉쓜춨뮧췁뗘릩쟳틢풸벰웤훷튪펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ맽췁뗘싲싴뛸복쟡ꆣ떫쫇,죧맻쯻쏇뫜쓑퓚돇쫐훐폫웤쯼짌욷늻춬,얩듥췁뗘쫐뎡싲싴쮫랽뚼쫇퓺룹쿂살늢쪵쿖폀뻃탔틆쏱,믲헟뛔ퟔ벺쫇럱쓜헦얩쏱,떫췁뗘뛔싲싴쮫랽뿉쓜뻟폐늻춬뗄릦쓜ꆣ뛔헽뇤캪돇쫐뻓쏱좱랦탅탄,췁뗘죔좻뿉쓜놻뾴ퟷ폚잱퓚뗄싲랽살쮵,췁뗘쫇떥뒿뗄짺닺쇏,웤볛ퟮ뫳뗄놣헏뛸늻믡놻뎹뗗죃ꆣ폫짏튻샠얩뮧뗄횵좡뻶폚뺭펪췁뗘뗄뺻쫕틦;뛸뛔폚잱퓚뗄싴랽살쟸뇰쫇,쯻쏇춨뎣믡죃튻뚨쪱웚쓚뗄췁뗘쪹폃쮵,쿖뷗뛎뗄췁뗘늻뷶뷶쫇뇘튪뗄짺닺쇏,뛸쟒좨,춬쪱놣쇴뷱뫳쫕믘뗄좨샻ꆣ쫇뇘튪뗄짧믡놣헏,룼좷쟐뗘쮵,쫇뻍튵쓋훁짺듦퓚쪵횤퇐뺿훐컒쏇훷튪럖컶캴뻙볒잨죫돇쫐뗄놣헏,웤볛횵뿉쓜풶풶뎬돶떥뒿뗄췁뗘뺭펪뒿쫕얩뮧뗄췁뗘릩쟳틲쯘ꆣ늻맽,룹뻝뛔뻙볒잨죫돇쫐틦ꆣ틲듋,퓚럇얩뻍튵뗃늻떽놣헏뗄쟩뿶쿂,퓚샍얩뮧뗄뗧뮰뗷닩,컒쏇폐샭평쿠탅쯻쏇뗄췁뗘릩펦뚯솦틆늻쓜놣횤쪵쿖얩쏱쿲쫐쏱틆뗄쳵볾쿂,몯쫽폫캴뻙볒잨죫돇쫐뗄얩뮧듳쳥쿠쯆,벴쯻쏇튪얩듥췁뗘쫐뎡짏뿉쓜폐탨쟳뛸컞릩룸,훁짙좱랦뎹쟳믹놾쿠춬뗄돶죃볛룱,틲뛸쪵횤럖컶뗄뷡맻믹놾뗗싴뛏뗄릩룸틢풸ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,릩룸틢풸뗄좱랦뿉쫊폃폚퇹놾뗘쟸좫쳥얩뮧ꆣ쓜릹돉뛔췁뗘쫐뎡탎돉뫍랢햹뗄쪵훊탔헏낭ꆣ쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뮯뷸돌뗄췆뷸,얩뮧늻퓙쫇튻룶룟뛈죽ꆢ럖컶랽램뫍쫽뻝살풴춬훊뗄좺쳥,퓚췁뗘쫐뎡훐뗄탐캪튲늻쿠춬ꆣ룹뻝얩쏱뛔췁뗘틀삵탔뗄듳킡,놾컄붫얩쏱뮮럖캪솽1.럖컶랽램벰쒣탍톡퓱샠:튻샠쫇뻙볒잨죫돇쫐뗄얩쏱,쇭튻샠쫇캴뻙볒(1)럖컶랽램ꆣ캪쇋퇩횤짏쫶싟벭쮼슷,놾퇐잨죫돇쫐뗄얩쏱ꆣ놾컄럖뇰럖컶짏쫶솽샠얩쏱뗄뺿쫗쿈뗷닩붭쯕탋뮯뫍뫚쇺붭뇶쿘솽뗘얩뮧뗄췁췁뗘싲싴뚯믺,뾼달얩듥췁뗘싲싴쫐뎡쓜럱헦헽붨뗘싲싴틢풸,뻝틔럖컶췁뗘싲싴쫐뎡뗄릩룸뫍탨쟳솢늢랢햹,늢뷸튻늽뷨훺볆솿쒣탍뷢쫍펰쿬얩뮧릩쫇럱욥엤,늢퓚듋믹뒡짏,뷸튻늽뷨훺볆솿쒣탍뷢룸틢풸뗄훷튪틲쯘,틔웚쳡돶쿠펦뗄헾닟붨틩ꆣ쫍펰쿬얩뮧릩룸틢풸뗄틲쯘ꆣ캴뻙볒잨죫돇쫐뗄얩쏱냼삨뒿얩뮧뫍룷샠볦(2)쒣탍톡퓱ꆣ놾컄퓋폃Logit쒣탍뾼달쇋얩튵얩뮧,쯻쏇뛔췁뗘뗄틀삵탔뫜잿,뛠쫽쟩뿶쿂볒뮧싴뗘훷튪폐쓄킩펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ톡퓱얩뮧싴뗘틢풸춥뺭펪쫕죫뫍죋뻹쫕죫폫췁뗘맦쒣횱뷓쿠맘ꆣ퓚ퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿,벴죧맻얩뮧풸틢싴뗘좡횵캪1;믹놾짺믮뗃떽놣헏뗄쟩뿶쿂,퓶볓뗄췁뗘뻍쫇볲떥랴횮,죧맻얩뮧늻풸틢싴뗘좡횵캪0ꆣ본폚얩뮧퓚뗄짺닺쇏ꆣ죧맻퓶볓췁뗘쏦믽뗄춶쫕틦듳폚얩뗘쮽폐뗄볙짨잰쳡쿂쫇럱풸틢싴뗘헢튻뷢쫍뇤웤쯻춶,춬쪱폖펵폐삩듳췁뗘춶쯹뇘탨뗄솿럻뫏뛾쿮럖늼뗄탔훊뫍쳘헷튪쟳(벴쫇튻룶뛾풴,쯻쏇뻍폐삩듳췁뗘맦쒣뗄탨쟳,쯻쏇풸틢뢶돶럖뇤솿),쟒Logit쒣탍쫇맣랺펦폃폚헢훖쟩뿶뗄뗄볛룱뻍쫇얩뗘ퟷ캪짺닺쇏뗄볛횵ꆣ쿠랴,ퟷ캪ퟮ뎣볻쒣탍횮튻,틲뛸컒쏇톡퓱Logit쒣탍살럖컶잱퓚뗄싴랽,췁뗘퓲쫇뻍튵뫍짺믮뗄ퟮ뫳놣헏,웤펰쿬얩뮧뻶닟뗄훷튪틲쯘ꆣ톡퓱뛔얩쏱싲싴얩뗘릩룸볛룱뗈폚췁뗘ퟷ캪짺닺쇏뗄볛횵볓짏뻍튵틢풸닺짺펰쿬뗄틲쯘(죧쫜럃헟쳘헷ꆢ얩뮧볒춥쳘놣헏뗄볛횵ꆣ죧맻헢퇹뗄췆싛돉솢,퓚헢샠얩뮧훐헷ꆢ뗘쟸탩쓢뇤솿)ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿,릹붨죧쿂Logit뻍늻듳뿉쓜랢짺췁뗘싲싴,틲캪춬튻뿩췁뗘뛔싲싴쒣탍,뇤솿뷢쫍벰풤웚ퟷ폃랽쿲볻뇭1ꆣ쮫랽뛸퇔쫇늻춬뗄뚫컷ꆢ뻟폐늻춬뗄릦쓜뫍볛횵,ln뛸쟒쫇싴랽뗄풤웚볛횵풶풶룟폚싲랽뗄풤웚볛횵ꆣp+ꛂi/(1-p)=ꛁi1AGE+ꛂ2AGE2+ꛂ떱좻3INCO+ꛂ4AREA+ꛂ5M+ꛂ6D,컞싛쫇짺닺쇏뗄볛횵뮹쫇뻍튵놣헏뗄볛횵,췁뗘뗄릩쟳볛룱뚼쫜튻킩웤쯻틲쯘뗄펰쿬,쳘뇰쫇펰쿬췁뗘쫕틦뫍얩쏱럇얩뻍튵뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣꋙ뗘뿩맦쒣뺭볃횸뗄쫇삩듳뗘뿩쏦믽쓜룼폐킧뗘랢믓웤쯻짺닺튪쯘뗄ퟷ폃ꆢ쳡룟풴뗄놨돪싊,듓뛸퓶볓얩쏱쫕죫믲붵뗍짺틑뺭뻙볒잨죫돇쫐뗄얩쏱늻퓙훖뗘,퓚췁뗘쫐닺돉놾ꆣ2' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚1웚췵탋컈,훓뢦쓾:췁뗘쫐뎡폫얩쏱볤췁뗘쇷뇭1Logit쒣탍뗄룷뷢쫍뇤솿뗄뚨틥ꆢ쏨쫶춳볆벰풤웚ퟷ폃랽쿲뷢쫍뇤솿뚨틥떥캻욽뻹횵뇪ힼ닮풤웚ퟷ폃랽쿲AGE쫜럃헟쓪쇤쓪-AGE2^쫜럃헟쓪쇤욽랽/+INCO얩뮧볒춥훖럇훖횲튵쫕죫햼ퟜ쫕죫뗄뇈훘%-AREA얩뮧볒춥얩뗘돐냼쏦믽쒶+M얩뗘볌돐죋:폐쓐탔볌돐죋=1/-D뗷닩뗘쟸:뇶쿘=1,탋뮯=0,/-ꆡꆡ쫜럃헟쳘헷:퓚췁뗘싲싴틢풸훐,쓪쇤쫇랴펳뿉쓜붫얩뗘싴뗴,뮻틔쿖뷰퇸샏ꆣ쫜럃헟쳘헷뗄ퟮ훷튪뗄뷢쫍뇤솿,틲캪쫜럃헟쓪쇤뗘쟸탩쓢뇤솿:뺡맜뫚쇺붭뇶쿘뗘쟸얩쏱죋뻹쓜릻뷏뫃뗘랴펳얩쏱퓚돇쫐짺믮훐뗄짺듦쓜솦틔얩뗘쏦믽쿔훸룟폚붭쯕탋뮯뗘쟸얩쏱죋뻹쏦믽,떫벰쯻쏇뛔췁뗘뗄틀삵탔돌뛈,뛸헢헽쫇펰쿬쯻쏇퓚쫇뫚쇺붭뇶쿘뛌웚컱릤뇈샽햼뻸듳늿럖,뛸붭쯕탋췁뗘싲싴틢풸훐ퟶ뻶닟뗄훘튪틲쯘횮튻ꆣ쓪쇤폫뮯늻쫇ꋙꆣ듓놾퇐뺿쯹뗷닩뗄퇹놾살뾴,뫚쇺붭뇶싴뗘틢풸횮볤뿉쓜돊쿖돶럇쿟탔뗄맘쾵:퓚쟠ힳ쓪쿘퇹놾뮧훐ퟶ뛌릤뗄컱릤얩쏱햼룃뗘쟸헻룶췢돶얩쏱훐,뿉쓜풸틢싴얩뗘죋뗄뇈샽뷏듳,헢쓪쇤뛎컱릤얩쏱뗄뇈샽쫇%,뛸붭쯕탋뮯뗄횻햼18.뗄얩쏱뇈뷏죝틗퓚돇쫐훐헒떽릤ퟷ,쪵쿖컈뚨뗄쿲9%ꆣퟶ뛌릤뗄뇈샽풽듳,늻뷶틢캶ퟅ췢돶컱릤뗄돇쫐틆쏱,틲뛸뿉쓜폐뷏잿뗄싴뗘뿉쓜탔;퓚쓪쇤쫕죫뿉쓜쎻폐좫쓪컱릤죋풱뗄뛠틔췢,뛸쟒뮹틢캶뷏듳뗄얩쏱훐,뿉쓜늻풸틢싴얩뗘죋뗄뇈샽뷏듳ퟅ뛌웚췢돶컱릤얩쏱뇈뎤웚ퟶ릤얩쏱룼좱랦컈뚨,헢쫇평폚헢튻뷗뛎뗄얩쏱튻냣좱랦벼쓜,뾿쳥솦퓚룐,틲캪뛌웚컱릤뇈샽풽듳,얩쏱쏦쇙훘탂헒릤ퟷ돇쫐훐듲릤쒱짺,퓚돇쫐훐헒떽릤ퟷ뗄룅싊뷏킡뗄룅싊튲뻍풽듳,얩쏱듓췢돶컱릤훐뗃떽풤웚컈뚨,틲뛸퓚헢늿럖죋훐쫕죫뗄컈뚨룐튲뻍풽죵,얩쏱뛔얩뗘뗄틀삵탔튲뻍,듳늿럖죋뿉쓜늻풸틢싴뗘;뛔폚쓇킩쓪쇤뫜듳뗄얩쏱살쮵,믹놾즥쪧쇋샍뚯쓜솦,죧맻풽잿,듓뛸퓬돉얩쏱풽늻풸틢싴얩뗘ꆣ싴뗴얩뗘믱뗃뗄뷰쓜릻캬돖쯻쏇폠짺뗄뮰,쯻쏇폐2.쫽뻝살풴뿉쓜풸틢싴뗘ꆣ틲뛸퓚쒣탍뗄릹붨훐쓪쇤닉폃쇋욽놾컄쫽뻝살풴폚2007쓪뛔붭쯕탋뮯뫍뫚쇺붭랽쿮,풤웚쓪쇤쾵쫽튻듎쿮캪뢺,뛾듎쿮캪헽ꆣ뇶쿘솽뗘짧믡뗷닩ꆣ톡퓱헢솽룶뗘쟸뗄풭틲쫇:쫗얩뮧볒춥쳘헷훷튪냼삨얩뮧볒춥럇훖횲튵쫕쿈,헢솽룶뗘쟸췁뗘쾸쯩뮯쫇평럇뗘탎틲쯘틽웰뗄죫햼ퟜ쫕죫뗄뇈훘ꆢ얩뮧볒춥얩뗘돐냼쏦믽ꆢ얩뗘(뗘탎틲쯘틽웰뗄췁뗘쾸쯩뮯컊쳢,벴쪹솽뿩쳯솽폐컞볌돐죋헢죽룶뷢쫍뇤솿:ꋙ얩뮧볒춥럇훖횲튵솽쿠쇚,튲늻쫇탨튪믲쓜릻춨맽닺좨쫐뎡뫏샭뷢뻶쫕죫햼ퟜ쫕죫뗄뇈훘ꆣ죧맻얩뮧볒춥럇훖횲튵쫕뗄쪵볊컊쳢,샽죧,쟰쇪뗘쟸쇣쯩뗄쮮쳯);웤듎,죫햼얩뮧볒춥ퟜ쫕죫뗄뇈훘풽룟,쮵쏷룃볒춥쓜릻헢솽룶뗘쟸죋뗘뇈샽늻춬,뛸늻춬죋뗘뇈샽뗘쟸얩늻틀뾿얩뗘믱뗃쫕죫뗄쓜솦뻍풽룟,듓뛸뛔얩뗘뗄쏱뛔췁뗘뗄틀삵탔뿉쓜늻춬ꆣ틀삵탔뻍풽뗍,쯹틔얩뮧볒춥럇얩쫕죫햼얩뮧볒춥솽뗘룷쯦믺돩좡쇋솽룶쿧헲,쎿룶쿧헲쯦믺돩쫕죫뇈훘풽룟,얩뮧풽폐뿉쓜풸틢싴뗘ꆣꋚ얩뮧볒좡튻룶듥,튻룶듥쯦믺돩좡솽룶듥쏱킡ퟩ(췍),ퟟ춥얩뗘돐냼쏦믽ꆣ얩뮧돐냼뗄얩뗘쏦믽풽킡,뛔뻸럃뗷닩쎿룶듥쏱킡ퟩ(췍)쯹폐얩뮧,릲8룶듥쏱듳뛠쫽얩쏱살쮵,얩뗘돐떣뗄짺닺쇏릦쓜뻍풽킡ퟩ(췍)ꆣ킡,짺듦놣헏릦쓜뻍풽잿,얩쏱튲뻍풽늻풸틢싴얩뗘ꆣ떫쫇,쯦ퟅ얩뮧얩뗘쏦믽뗄퓶듳,얩뗘ퟷ캪짺쯄ꆢ쪵횤뷡맻닺쇏뗄릦쓜뻍풽잿,떱얩뮧얩뗘쏦믽듳폚쒳룶랧1.얩쏱췁뗘싲싴틢풸뗄춳볆럖컶횵틔뫳,얩쏱뻍뿉쓜풸틢싴얩뗘ꆣꋛ얩뗘폐컞볌돐죋ꆣ얩뗘폐컞볌돐죋쫇횸얩뮧볒춥훐ퟮ킡튻듺죋ꆡꆡ컊뻭뗷닩훐컒쏇톯컊얩쏱퓚얩뗘쮽폐뗄볙짨훐쫇럱폐쓐탔볌돐죋,믲헟ퟮ킡튻듺훐쫇럱뿉쓜짺ꋙ쎿쓪췢돶컱릤쪱볤샛볆3-6룶퓂뗄돆캪뛌릤ꆣ뫚쇺붭뗘돶쓐탔볌돐죋ꆣ죧맻얩뗘폐볌돐죋,얩쏱뿉쓜늻풸쟸퇹놾뮧ퟶ뛌릤뗄뇈샽룟뗄풭틲뿉쓜쫇:뫚쇺붭뗘쟸뚬벾몮샤쟒틢싴얩뗘,뛸붫얩뗘쇴룸쯻쏇볌탸훖횲퇓탸쪱볤뎤,퓚헢뛎쪱볤튻냣늻쫊틋퓚뮧췢릤ퟷ,뛸얩쏱릤폐뫜듳,틀뾿쯻쏇살룸ퟔ벺퇸샏쯍훕;죧맻얩뗘쎻폐볌돐죋,얩쏱퓲튻늿럖쫇쫴폚뮧췢릤ퟷ뗄,죧붨훾ꆣ헢웚볤듓쫂헢킩탐튵뗄얩쏱믹놾짏쫇믘볒택쾢,살쓪훘탂헒릤ퟷꆣ3' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쓏뺩얩튵듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)뗚9뻭쳵볾쿂쫇럱풸틢싲싴췁뗘,죧맻풸틢,붫튪쟳믲뷓릩룸쟺쿟컞램쿠붻ꆣ듓헻쳥살쮵,탋뮯얩쏱싲뗘풸쫜쪲쎴퇹뗄볛룱ꆣ뛔8룶듥ퟩ236퇹놾뮧(늻냼삨틢뷓쫜뗄뻹볛쫇풪/쒶,뛸싴뗘헟튪쟳뗄뻹좫볒췢돶컱릤뗄퇹놾뮧)뗄뗷닩뷡맻볻뇭2뫍뇭볛쫇췲풪/쒶,솽헟뗄뻹볛쿠닮뫜듳ꆣ듋뷡맻3ꆣ뗷닩뷡맻쿔쪾:얩쏱췁뗘싲싴틢풸훐얩뗘릩룸쮵쏷,쿖뷗뛎,벴쪹퓊탭얩뗘ퟔ평싲싴,평폚얩쏱뛔볛룱폫얩뗘탨쟳볛룱컞램욥엤,쪹뗃헢퇹뗄얩뗘싲얩뗘뻟폐뫜잿뗄틀삵탔,쯻쏇싴뗘쪱돶뗄볛룱뫍싲싴붻틗컞램쪵쿖ꆣ틔탋뮯캪샽,탋뮯떥룶얩뮧풸틢뗘쪱돶뗄볛룱컞램쿠붻,췁뗘뗄싲싴쎻폐냬램쪵싲뗘뗄ퟮ룟볛룱늻뎬맽5000풪/쒶;뛸탋뮯뗘쟸떥쿖,듓뛸튲뻍늻쓜웚췻춨맽헢퇹뗄췁뗘싲싴살뷢뻶룶얩뮧싴뗘뗄ퟮ뗍볛룱늻뗍폚5000풪/쒶,탨쟳뫍얩뗘쾸쯩뮯컊쳢ꆣ뇭2얩쏱얩뗘싲싴틢풸떥캻:뮧쫇럱믡싴뗘쫇럱믡싲뗘볛룱(풪/쒶)럱쫇럱쫇탋뮯뇶쿘탋뮯뇶쿘탋뮯뇶쿘탋뮯뇶쿘500ꆪ100011220861001ꆪ20003262001ꆪ50002505001ꆪ1000010910001ꆪ20000131420000ꆪ3000012630001ꆪ5000012750000틔짏59741910뇭3얩쏱얩뗘싲싴틢풸(탸)쫇럱싲뗘쫇럱싴뗘싲늻싲싲뗘뻹볛좫늿싴좫싴뻹볛늿럖싴늿럖싴뻹볛늻싴싴뗘ퟜ뗄뻹볛(췲풪)(%)(%)(풪)(%)(췲풪)(%)(췲풪)(%)탋뮯뇶쿘.틑뻙볒잨죫돇쫐얩쏱돶쫛췁뗘뗄틢풸싴뗘쯹튪쟳뗄뻹볛(췲풪/쒶)폫튻냣얩쏱ꋚ싴쿠뛔폚얩쏱헻쳥뛸퇔뗘뗄뻹볛(췲풪/쒶)쿠닮늻듳ꆣ헢킩쳘뗣쮵,뻙볒퓚췢컱릤(믲뺭짌)뗄쓇늿럖얩쏱쫇얩듥훐ퟮ폐뿉쓜럅웺얩뗘ꆢ쪵쏷,뻙볒퓚췢컱릤뗄얩쏱좺쳥훐캴랢쿖폐듳솿얩쏱쿖컈뚨틆쏱뗄죋ꆣ캪쇋쇋뷢헢늿럖얩뮧췁뗘릩룸틑뺭쓜릻쪵쿖컈뚨뻍튵뛸늻퓙틀삵얩뗘ퟷ캪ퟮ뫳몯쫽쫇럱폐뇰폚짏컄훐뗷닩뗄얩뮧,컒쏇쏅헫뛔뗄놣헏ꆣ볈좻쿖뷗뛎쓜릻쪵쿖컈뚨틆쏱ꆢ늻퓙틀삵뻙볒퓚췢컱릤(믲뺭짌얩뗘뗄얩쏱뫜짙ꋛ,컒쏇뻍늻쓜웚췻틀뾿헢샠얩쏱)뗄얩쏱뷸탐쇋뗧뮰뗷닩ꆣ놾듎뗧뮰뗷닩,릲뗷닩쇋8룶퇹놾듥ퟩ훐뗄58뮧뗄췁뗘싲싴살뷢뻶얩뗘쾸쯩뮯컊쳢ꆣ좫볒퓚췢컱릤ꆢ퓝쪱늻퓙훖뗘뗄얩뮧,ퟮ훕뗃떽폐킧뗷닩퇹놾36룶,뗷닩뷡맻볻뇭4ꆣꋙ헢%쏷좷믘듰늻훖뗘뗄죋좫늿쫇쓪쟡죋,쓪쇤퓚18-뗷닩뷡맻쿔쪾,뻙볒퓚췢컱릤뗄얩쏱좺쳥폐죽35쯪횮볤ꆣꋚ쫇횸캴쪵쿖쿲돇쫐폀뻃탔틆쏱뗄얩쏱좺쳥훐풸틢싴뗘뗄룶쳘뗣얩쏱ꆣ:튻쫇쯻쏇뛔ퟔ벺쓜럱퓚돇쫐훐컈뚨쿂살짺믮돖샖맛첬뛈뗄뫜짙ꋛ헢퇹뗄죋풱뫜짙,뿉쓜쫇평폚퓚얩듥쎻폐헷쫕얩튵쮰횮,%뗄죋죏캪늻쓜릻믱뗃잰,얩쏱훖뗘뮮늻살,헦헽폐놾쫂퓚췢컱릤쓜릻쪵쿖컈뚨뻍튵뗄쓇퓚돇쫐훐컈뚨뻍튵뗄믺믡;뛾쫇쯻쏇뛔췁뗘뗄틀솵늿럖죋,퓚듋횮잰뻍춨맽룷훖냬램,뇤얩쏱짭럝,돉캪쇋돇쫐죋,돌뛈틀좻뫜룟,폐늻퓙돐냼벯쳥뗄얩뗘,뛸헢늿럖죋,늻냼삨퓚컒쏇뗷닩뗄퇹놾훐ꆣ%뗄얩쏱믘듰붫살폐뿉쓜벴쪹쫂쪵좷쪵쫇헢퇹,뛔컒쏇뗄퇐뺿뷡싛튲쎻폐펰쿬,틲캪놾컄쿖믘볒훖뗘,%뗄믘듰쮵ퟔ벺쮵늻쟥돾,횻폐2퓚퇐뺿뗄쫇펵폐벯쳥얩뗘뗄얩쏱,쯻쏇퓚췁뗘닺좨훆뛈죧맻뇤잨.(벴얩뗘듓릲폐뇤캪쮽폐뮯)뗄쳵볾풼쫸쿂,얩쏱뛔듋붫믡폐쪲쎴8%뗄죋ꋙ쏷좷뇭쪾ퟔ벺붫살늻믡훖뗘;죽쫇쯻쏇탐캪랴펦ꆣ4' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚1웚췵탋컈,훓뢦쓾:췁뗘쫐뎡폫얩쏱볤췁뗘쇷뇭4좫볒퓚췢컱릤죋풱췁뗘릩룸틢풸뻵뗃ퟔ벺쓜뎤웚퓚돇쫐훐컱릤싰?붫살폐뿉쓜믘볒훖뗘싰?죧맻췁뗘쮽폐,쓣쫇럱풸틢싴뗘쓜늻쓜쮵늻쟥돾믡늻믡쮵늻쟥돾싴늿럖좫늿늻싴쮵늻쟥돾뮧쫽33302916411210뇈훘(%)뇭5펰쿬얩쏱싴뗘틢풸뗄Logit쒣탍맀볆뷡맻뷢쫍뇤솿(Variable)쾵쫽(Coefficient)뇪ힼ컳()Z횵(z-Statistic)룅싊횵(Prob.)^(LRstat)ꆡꆡ힢33:뇭쪾10%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔3,뇭쪾5%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔333,뇭쪾1%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏뻟폐춳볆쿔훸탔ꆣ3.펰쿬얩쏱싴뗘틢풸뗄쒣탍맀볆뷡맻폫럖컶ꆣ쓜풸틢싴뗘,틲뛸컒쏇뗄퇹놾듺뇭탔듦퓚튻뚨뗄욫퓚얩뗘쮽폐볙짨쳵볾쿂,펰쿬얩뮧췁뗘싴돶틢닮,듓뛸퓬돉짏쫶쾵쫽훃탅쟸볤뗄볬퇩뷡맻늻쫇뫜풸뗄뫃ꆣLogit쒣탍맀볆뷡맻죧뇭5쯹쪾ꆣ듓믘맩뷡맻훐뗄룷믘맩쾵쫽맀볆횵뗄헽뢺럻얩뮧볒춥얩뗘돐냼쏦믽믘맩쾵쫽캪헽,늢퓚뫅살뾴10%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏쿔훸,헢퇹뗄뷡맻쮵쏷얩뮧볒춥,룷뷢쫍뇤솿쯹뛔펦뗄럻뫅폫풤웚ퟷ폃랽쿲믹놾튻훂ꆣ얩뗘쏦믽폫얩쏱쫇럱싴얩뗘뗄틢풸듦퓚헽쿠맘맘쫜럃헟쓪쇤믘맩쾵쫽튻듎쿠캪뢺ꆢ뛾듎쿠캪헽쾵,헢뫍풤웚뗄뷡맻쿠럻ꆣ뗄풤웚뷡맻얩뮧볒춥쫇럱폐얩뗘볌돐죋,헢룶탩쓢뇤솿믘,늢퓚10%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏쿔훸ꆣ얩뮧볒춥럇훖횲튵쫕죫햼ퟜ쫕죫뗄뇈훘믘맩맩쾵쫽캪뢺,늢퓚1%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏쿔훸,췪좫럻쾵쫽캪헽,듋뷡맻럻뫏풤웚뗄뷡맻,떫쫇룃뷡맻퓚뫏풤웚뗄뷡맻,헢퇹뗄뷡맻쮵쏷얩뮧볒춥얩뗘폐볌돐죋,얩쏱뻍늻풸틢싴얩뗘,헢솽헟횮볤듦퓚뢺쿠10%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏늻쿔훸,퓚20%뗄훃탅쮮욽짏맘뗄맘쾵ꆣ닅쿔훸ꆣ헢퇹뗄뷡맻뺡맜늻첫쇮죋탅럾,떫컒쏇좴뗘쟸탩쓢뇤솿믘맩쾵쫽캪뢺,늢퓚5%뗄훃탅늻쓜틲듋럱뚨헢퇹뗄뷡싛:벴얩뮧볒춥럇훖횲튵쫕쮮욽짏쿔훸,럻뫏풤웚뗄뷡맻,벴뫚쇺붭뇶쿘얩쏱죫햼ퟜ쫕죫뗄뇈훘폫얩쏱쫇럱풸틢싴뗘듦퓚헽쿠싴뗘틢풸튪죵폚붭쯕탋뮯얩쏱뗄싴뗘틢풸ꆣ맘,틲캪퓬돉짏쫶욫닮뗄풭틲뿉쓜쫇평폚컒쏇퇹놾톡퓱폐욫퓬돉뗄ꆣ평폚놾퇐뺿쯹뗷닩뗄듥ퟩ훐,폐컥ꆢ뷡싛폫헾닟몬틥튻킩볒춥좫볒췢돶컱릤,헢퇹뗄볒춥컒쏇늢쎻폐좫늿뗷닩떽,뺡맜ퟶ쇋뗧뮰늹돤뗷닩,떫쫇뮹쫇폐뫜춨맽짏쫶쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻뿉틔뾴떽,퓚떱잰얩쏱뛠헢퇹뗄볒춥쎻폐뗷닩떽,뛸헢튻늿럖좺쳥잡잡쫇짧믡놣헏뷏뗍뗄쟩뿶쿂,벴쪹붫얩쏱돐냼뗄얩뗘뷸볒춥럇훖횲튵쫕죫햼ퟜ쫕죫룟뗄좺쳥,쯻쏇벫폐뿉탐쮽폐뮯뇤룯,얩쏱튲늻믡쟡틗싴뗘ꆣ벴쪹늿럖얩5' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쓏뺩얩튵듳톧톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)뗚9뻭쏱풸틢싲싴얩뗘,쯻쏇싲싴얩뗘뗄틢풸볛룱풶풶늻폐,얩쏱볤뗄췁뗘싲싴튲뫜쓑랢햹웰살;횸췻춨맽쓜쿠붻,췁뗘붻틗컞램쪵쿖ꆣ헢뻍쮵쏷,쿖뷗뛎뻸췁뗘붻틗붵뗍얩뗘쾸쯩뮯돌뛈쫇탐늻춨뗄ꆣ탨튪듳뛠쫽얩쏱뛔얩뗘뗄틀삵탔뫜잿,얩뗘뛔얩쏱살쮵잿뗷뗄쫇,컒쏇헢퇹뗄뷡싛늢쎻폐럱죏헢퇹뗄뿉쓜늻뷶뷶쫇짺닺쇏,뛸쟒룼쫇짺믮놣헏,폈웤쫇뻍탔:벴떱죋뗘뇈샽뗃떽쏷쿔룄짆쪱(폀뻃탔틆쏱뗄튵놣헏ꆣ얩쏱듳럹뛈퓶볓쪱),룄룯뫍췪짆췁뗘닺좨벰쫐뎡죧맻쿫퓚얩뗘쮽폐쳵볾쿂랢햹얩뗘쫐뎡,웚췻낲업췪좫폐뿉쓜듙뷸얩뗘쇷늢듸살얩뮧췁뗘맦틔듋삩듳얩뮧췁뗘맦쒣늢복쟡얩뗘쾸쯩뮯뗄돌뛈,쒣뗄삩듳,춬쪱뷢뻶얩뗘쾸쯩뮯컊쳢ꆣ뻍탨튪뷢뻶훆풼얩뗘쫐뎡랢햹뗄룹놾헏낭,벴복쟡얩쏱뛔얩뗘뗄틀삵탔ꆣ튪ퟶ떽헢튻뗣,ퟮ룹놾뗄뻍ꋙ떱좻,헢퇹뗄뷡싛쫇붨솢퓚좫맺룻뗘쏦믽늻뇤,믲룻뗘복짙쫇튪복짙얩쏱,쪵쿖얩쏱쿲돇쫐뗄폀뻃탔틆ꆣ죧쯙뛈쎻폐얩쏱죋뿚복짙쯙뛈뿬뗄잰쳡쿂뗄ꆣ펦룃쮵,듓컒맺뗄맺맻얩쏱쫽솿뗃떽헦헽틢틥짏뗄복짙,얩쏱틑뺭쪵쿖쟩돶랢,헢퇹뗄볙짨쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ퓚돇쫐컈뚨뻍튵뫍짺믮뗄놣헏,쯻쏇뻍늻폃퓙냑췁뗘쫓ퟷퟮ뫳뗄놣헏,룼늻폃뾼싇붫얩뗘쇴룸ퟓ쯯ퟷ닎뾼컄쿗:캪뻍튵놣헏,췁뗘뗄볛횵닅뿉쓜쿲떥뒿뗄짺닺쇏[1]ZhangL.,,믘맩ꆣ쇭췢,얩쏱쫽솿뗄복짙,뮧뻹얩뗘쏦믽뻍믡useinChina[J].AgriculturalPolicesinChina,1997.퓶볓ꋙ[2]WanGuangH.,,튲폐샻폚얩뗘쫐뎡뗄랢햹ꆣ놾컄횻쫇쪵횤럖컶쇋얩뗘퓚쮽폐뮯뗄볙짨잰tionandreturnstoscaleintheChinesefarmingsector쳡쿂얩뗘쫐뎡쿖뷗뛎쫇럱쓜헦헽랢믓ퟷ폃,늢쎻폐[J].AppliedEconomics,2001,33:183-194.뛔얩뗘쫐뎡쓜럱붵뗍얩뗘쾸쯩뮯돌뛈ퟶ돶쪵횤럖[3]동뢣쇖,췵뺰탂,쳆쳎.뢳폨얩쏱뎤웚뛸폐놣헏뗄췁뗘컶ꆣ떫쫇,헢늢늻럁낭컒쏇뛔쿖뷗뛎얩뗘쫐뎡쓜럱쪹폃좨[J].훐맺얩듥뺭볃,1999(3).붵뗍얩뗘쾸쯩뮯돌뛈쿂뷡싛ꆣ틲캪,놾컄틑폐뗄뷡[4]횣럧쳯.컒맺쿖탐췁뗘훆뛈뗄닺좨닐좱폫탂탍췁뗘훆뛈릹쿫[J].맜샭쫀뷧,1995(4).싛틑뺭쓜릻쟥컺뗘룦쯟컒쏇:퓚쒿잰뗄쳵볾쿂,횻(퓰죎뇠벭:쟺뎽)튪죋뗘뇈샽쎻폐뗃떽룹놾탔뗄룄짆,벴쪹얩뗘쮽LandMarketandLandTransfersAmongFarmersꆪꆪꆪACaseStudyinXinghuaCityofJiangsuProvinceandBinCountyofHeilongjiangProvinceWANGXing2w1en,ZHONGF2u2ning(,ChineseAcademyofAgricultureSciences,Beijing100081,China;Col2legeofEconomicsandManagemente,NanjingAgricultureUniversity,Nanjing210095,China)Abstract:Itisgenerallybelievedthattheestablishmentoflandpropertyrightandlandmarketisessentialtoex2pandingfarmsizeandreducinglandfragmentationandhenceincreasingfarmers’ 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
