Chapter 4
Who Gains and
Who Loses from Trade ?
国际贸易的福利效应
Introduction
Chapter Objective
To understand the effects of international trade on the welfare of different factor owners, and the effectiveness of the H-O theory.
The short- and long-run
effects
The short-run effect
The Long-run effect
Contents
The Stolper-Samuelson theorem
The factor price equalization theorem
The specific-factor model
The Leontief Paradox
The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
斯托尔帕 - 萨缪尔森定理
Long-run effects of trade on factor prices
Wolfgang Stolper & Paul Samuelson
Ann Arbor, MI, November 1991
How Does Trade Affect
Factor Price
Opening trade
Change in outputs
Change in demand for inputs
Change in factor prices
Trade and Factor Price
( Labor-Abundant Country A )
(a) Labor Market
(b) Capital Market
O LA L
O KA K
wA
w0
w2
LA
KA
r2
r0
DL1
DL2
DL0
DK0
DK2
DK1
rA
Magnification Effect
放大效应
PX = aLX • w + aKX • r PY = aLY • w + aKY • r
(Assumption: Input coefficients don’t change)
The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
A change in the price of a good changes, in the same direction but more than proportionally, the price of the factors used intensively in the good’s production.
Effects of Trade on
Real Factor Prices
Labor-Abundant Country A
Factor Prices: w ; r
Purchasing Power: w ; r
Capital-Abundant Country B
Factor Prices: w ; r
Purchasing Power: w ; r
Trade Policy Implications
To enjoy overall gains from trade, the government of a trading nation should consider compensation for the losers.
The Factor Price Equalization
Theorem (Samuelson, 1948)
要素价格均等化定理
Labor-abundant Country A
Wage
Rental Rate
Capital-abundant Country B
Wage
Rental Rate
The Factor Price Equalization Theorem
Under the assumptions of the H-O theory, free trade equalizes the prices of the same factor between the two countries.
An Alternate View
Trade in outputs and trade in factors of production are substitutes.
Robert Mundell
罗伯特·蒙代尔
Nobelist 1999
Columbia Univ.
Do Factor Prices Equalize
Internationally ?
There is a tendency toward equalization.
The Specific Factors Model
特定要素模型
Reasons for Short-Run
Factor Immobility
Capital
Labor
Effects of Short-Run
Factor Immobility
Country A
Products (Industries):
Shoe
Computer
Factors of Production:
Labor (L)
Shoe Capital (SK)
Computer Capital (CK)
When capital is immobile in the short-run, what are the effects of trade for the labor-abundant country ?
Labor-abundant Country A
PShoe
PComputer
What will happen to factor prices?
w ? rS ? rC ?
Marginal Product (MP)
边际产出
Value of Marginal Product (VMP)
边际产值
VMPL = MPL • P
VMPK = MPK • P
Factor Price = VMP
OS L0 L1 OC
wS
wS2
wS0
wC0
wC2
VMPLS1
VMPLS0
VMPLC0
wC
LA
Change in wage level: Uncertain
VMPLC1
Workers’ purchasing power depends on the combination of shoes and computers they consume.
w/PS ; w/PC
O SK
rS
rS1
rS2
rS0
VMPSK0
Change in rental rate
SKA
VMPSK1
VMPSK2
O CK
rC
rC0
rC1
CKA
(a) Shoe Capital
(b) Computer Capital
rC2
VMPCK0
VMPCK1
VMPCK2
Capital Owners’ Purchasing Power
Shoe Capital
rS /PS ; rS /PC
Computer Capital
rC /PS ; rC /PC
Does H-O Explain Actual
Trade Patterns ?
Shares of the World’s Factor Endowments, Late 1990s
The Leontief Tests
里昂惕夫
Wassily Leontief
1906-1999
The Leontief Paradox
里昂惕夫之谜
Import
Exports Substitutes
Capital $2550780 $3091339
(1947$)
Labor 182 170
(person-years)
Capital-Labor Ratio $14015 $18184
($ per person-year)
Explanations for the Paradox
The Role of Tastes
Classification of Inputs
Arable farmland
Raw materials (Natural resources)
Human capital
Man-made capital
Unskilled labor
国 家/ 劳动投入 劳动技能分布
地区 年/人 I II III IV V VI VII VIII
. 48194
. 49833
Germany 50495
Japan 57842
Hongkong 74304
India 66517
I. Scientists and Engineers V. Machinists, Electricians and toolmakers
II. Technicians and Draftsmen VI. Other Skilled Manual Workers
III. Other Professionals VII. Clerical Workers
IV. Managers VIII. Unskilled and Semiskilled Workers
Human capital & Export ($1 bln )
1966
The role of trade barriers
Factor Intensity Reversal
要素密集度逆转
Summary
1. The Stolper-Samelson Theorem
2. The Factor Price Equalization Theorem
3. The Specific-Factor Model
4. The Leontief Paradox
