뗚26뻭ꆡ뗚10웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol126,No1102007쓪ꆡꆡ10퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconomicsOct.,2007ꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2007)10-0081-03싛틸탐쳥쾵퓚믵뇒춶믺릥믷훐뗄죚뷇즫뺰풪(커몺샭릤듳톧뺭볃톧풺,커몺430007)ꆡꆡ햪튪:20쫀볍쒩놬랢폚뚫쓏퇇맺볒뗄뷰죚캣믺룸룃뗘쟸쓋훁헻룶쫀뷧뺭볃뚼퓬돉쇋퇏훘뗄쯰쪧ꆣ캣믺횮뫳튻킩톧헟뛔폚룃뗘쟸틸탐뗄뺭펪튵벨폫캣믺횮볤뗄맘쾵ퟷ쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿,퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷뺭펪ힴ뿶뷏닮뗄틸탐쳥쾵췹췹믡폕랢믵뇒캣믺뗄놬랢ꆣ놾컄퓚잰죋퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏뛀뇙뺶,싛쫶쇋튻맺솼뫃뗄틸탐쳥쾵퓚춶믺탔믵뇒릥믷훐쯹냧퇝뗄뷇즫,뷸뛸쳡돶쇋뛔튻맺맺쓚탅듻솿뷸탐뿘훆뗄헾닟닙ퟷ붨틩ꆣ맘볼듊:춶믺;믵뇒캣믺;틸탐튵훐춼럖샠뫅:F830ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪횾싫:Aꆡꆡ퓚20쫀볍뗄ퟮ뫳20쓪훐,냼삨랢햹훐맺볒뫍듺뇭벴웚믣싊3,pt(pt)듺뇭맺쓚(맺췢)볛룱쮮욽,랢듯맺볒퓚쓚뗄탭뛠맺볒뚼늻춬돌뛈뗘뺭샺쇋믵뇒3it(it)듺뇭맺쓚(맺췢)샻싊쮮욽,Ûtee듺뇭풤웚뗄놾뫍틸탐캣믺ꆣ뛾헟탎펰늻샫쿠냩뛸탐뗄쳘탔듙쪹탭뇒뇡횵믣싊ꆣퟮ뫳,듺뇭믵뇒돋쫽뗄쿟탔맀볆횵ꆣ뛠뺭볃ꆢ뷰죚톧볒뛔솽훖캣믺뗄쓚퓚솪쾵ퟶ쇋듳솿죧쒣탍훐쇐돶뗄,룃돋쫽틑룹뻝뒢놸-듦뿮뇈싊뷸뗄짮죫퇐뺿ꆣ퇐뺿뗄뷡맻뇭쏷:뺭펪ힴ뿶늻병뗄틸탐쇋쿟탔뮯ꆣ쯹폐뇤솿,돽쇋샻싊뫍뒢놸-듦뿮싊탐믡폕랢믵뇒캣믺뗄놬랢,틸탐뗄쟥뎥쓜솦뫍믵뇒횮췢뻹평뛔쫴탎쪽뇭쪾ꆣ뗄컈뚨탔횮볤뻟폐뫜잿뗄뮥늹탔ꆣ탭뛠뺭볃톧볒퓚뗈쪽(1)캪믵뇒쫐뎡욽뫢,뗈쪽(2)캪럇쳗늹샻싛쫶믵뇒캣믺폫틸탐캣믺쪱뚼볙뚨틸탐뺭펪ힴ뿶늻싊욽볛,뗈쪽(3)캪릺싲솦욽볛,뗈쪽(4)뛔믵뇒믹뒡병ꆣ좻뛸,쪵볹횤쏷,쓇킩뻟폐붡뾵틸탐쳥쾵뗄맺볒쳡릩쇋튻룶log-linear맀볆ꆣ평폚33yt,it,pt퓚믲뗘쟸웤믵뇒튲뿉쓜퓢떽춶믺탔릥믷(뚫쓏퇇뷰죚쿂쏦뗄럖컶훐늻웰ퟷ폃,쯹틔볙뚨캪쇣ꆣ캣믺훐뗄첨췥)ꆣ늢쟒붡뾵뗄틸탐쳥쾵퓚믵뇒캣믺틸탐늿쏅뻟폐췪좫뗄뺺헹탔,퓚벴웚쫐뎡샻싊훐뮹뺭뎣냧퇝춶믺뷰쳡릩헟뗄뷇즫듓뛸뛔믵뇒캣쮮욽쿂쓜릻햹웚죎뫎듻뿮,좻뛸,컞싛쫇퓶볓탂듻뿮믺뗄놬랢웰떽쇋췆늨훺삽뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뇊헟붫럖쯄늿럖뮹쫇쿖폐듻뿮떽웚뚼탨튪쪱볤,쯹틔틸탐뗄ힼ놸뷰뛔룃컊쳢뷸탐닻쫶:뗚튻늿럖룸돶쒣탍;뗚뛾ꆢ죽늿늻뿉쓜솢벴퓶볓ꆣ헢퇹떱듦뿮ힼ놸뷰싊듳폚뫏틢쮮럖퓚볙짨맺쓚탅듻돖탸퓶볓뗄쳵볾쿂뛔폚풤웚탔뫍욽쪱,ힼ놸뷰믡솢벴복짙떽뫏틢쮮욽ꆣ떫쫇떱뫏틢럇풤웚탔믵뇒쳥쾵뇀삣뗄뚯첬맽돌뷸탐럖컶;뗚쯄뗄듦뿮ힼ놸뷰싊drt듳폚쪵볊뇈싊쪱,틸탐ힼ놸뷰뗄늿럖뛔폚헾닟톡퓱뷸탐쳖싛늢뗃돶뷡싛ꆣ뗷헻뇣뿉평쿂쪽뗃돶:Ûdrt=<(rt-rt),0<<<1(5)1ꆡ쒣탍웤훐,<캪ힼ놸뷰뗷헻뗄쯙뛈,뫏틢뗄듦뿮ힼ놸듋쒣탍폐쿂쇐4룶뗈쪽릹돉:뷰싊랴펳쇋틸탐믱샻뚯믺,평쪽(6)룸돶:ꛇ-ꛁrt+ht-pt=ꛂyt-ꛃit(1)ꛃdt=ꛋ-ꛔit(6)3it=it+Ûeet(2)ꛋ뫍v럖뇰캪헽뗄뎣쫽,i듺뇭틸탐뒢놸뗄믺믡et=3pt-pt(3)돉놾ꆣht=ꛄdt+(1-ꛄ)Ft,0<ꛄ<1(4)웤훐2ꆡ풤웚탍뇀삣ht듺뇭믹뒡믵뇒,dt듺뇭맺쓚탅듻,Ft듺뇭폫훐퇫틸탐췢믣뒢놸쿠뛔펦뗄놾뇒헋쏦볛횵,et볙뚨맺쓚탅듻퓶뎤싊캪ꛌꆣ뺡맜췢믣뒢놸돤쫕룥죕웚:2007-04-17ퟷ헟볲뷩:뺰풪(1964ꆪ),쓐,쇉쓾뷵훝죋,커몺샭릤듳톧퓚횰늩쪿짺,룟벶뺭볃쪦,쿖죎횰폚붨짨틸탐뢷탂럖탐,훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲캪뷰죚닺튵폫맜샭ꆣ81
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚26뻭ꆡ뗚10웚ퟣ,맺쓚탅듻뗄퓶뎤믡평폚췢믣뒢놸뗄복짙뛸뗖쿻,et=(ꛃ+ꛁꛔ+t)ꛄꛌ+ꛇ-ꛁꛋ+ꛄd0(16)듓뛸믵뇒릩룸놣돖늻뇤ꆣ좻뛸떱뒢놸뿝뷟쪱,맺쓚떱믵뇒릩룸랢짺쪱,et=e,춨맽쪽(9)뫍쪽(16)탅듻뗄돖탸퓶볓믡떼훂믵뇒릩룸춬뇈싊퓶볓,믵뇒뿉틔뗃돶풭폐믵뇒쳥쾵뇀삣쪱볤캪:붫볌탸뇡횵ꆣ헢퇹,퓚샻싊욽볛룸뚨쪱,릥믷뫳샻싊3(1-ꛄ)F0쮮욽믡룹뻝샭탔뗄뇡횵풤웚뎬맽뇡횵잰쮮욽ꆣ틲캪t=ꛄꛌ-(ꛃ+ꛁꛔ)(17)떱샻싊퓚풭폐믣싊쳥훆뇀삣쪱믡짏짽떽튻룶탂뗄컈듓(17)쪽뿉틔뗃돶:돵쪼뒢놸뷰풽짙,맺쓚탅듻뚨쮮욽,뒢탮듦뿮뇈싊퓲믡붵떽탂뗄릥믷뫳쮮욽늢뗄퓶뎤싊풽룟,믵뇒탨쟳뗄샻싊떯탔풽룟,믵뇒탔릥놣돖늻뇤ꆣ헢뇭쏷떱릥믷캪샭탔풤웚쪱(춨뎣평돖믷랢짺풽퓧(벴3t풽킡)ꆣ듓(17)쪽뮹뿉틔뾴돶:죴탸탔뗄맺쓚탅듻삩헅틽웰),틸탐뒢놸믡튻횱뗈폚웤틸탐뛔샻싊뗄뇤뮯랴펦풽쏴룐,듓뛸퓚샻싊짏짽쪱뫏틢쮮욽ꆣ랢믓뗄죚탔ퟷ폃풽잿,믵뇒릥믷랢짺뗄쪱볤튲믡볙뚨췪좫풤웚(벴Ûeet=Ûet)늢뫏늢쪽(1)-(3)뫍쳡잰ꆣ짏쏦뗄솽룶뷡싛뿉틔춨맽쿂쏦뗄럖컶뗃돶:(6)뗃떽:떱믵뇒캣믺랢짺잰맺쓚믵뇒릩룸퓶볓쪱,듦뿮ힼ놸m뷰뇈싊쿂붵,듋쪱평폚틸탐돖폐ힼ놸뷰뗄샻싊떯탔t=et-(ꛃ+ꛁꛔ)Ûet(7)웤훐mtꇔ(ꛇ-ꛁꛋ)+ht(8)뷏잿,퓲맺쓚탅듻쮮욽쿂붵ꆣ퓚뒫떼맽돌훐,틸탐늢떱믣싊만뚨쪱,Ûe=0,뫏늢쪽(4),(7)뫍(8),컒늻쫇쳘틢캪믵뇒릥믷횱뷓죚,횻튪풤웚믵뇒릥믷쏇뗃떽욽뫢뗄만뚨믣싊캪:붫튪랢짺늢쟒샻싊짏짽쪱틸탐뗄듻뿮믮뚯폐쯹퓶e=ꛇ-ꛁꛋ+ꛄd0+(1-ꛄ)F0(9)볓,룃죚탍킧펦뻍믡ퟔ좻닺짺ꆣ퓚헢훖믣싊훆뛈쿂뒢놸쯰쪧싊캪:ÛꛄÛdꛄꛌ3ꆡ럇풤웚탍뇀삣F=)(1-ꛄ=-)(1-ꛄ(10)퓚룃쿮럖컶훐컒쏇붫뾼닩맺쓚탅듻뗄춻좻퓶볓캪쇋좷뚨릥믷랢짺뗄쪱볤,컒쏇튪좷뚨펰ퟓ믣ퟮ뫳떼훂훐퇫틸탐췢믣뒢놸뗄췪좫뿝뷟ꆣ퓚헢샯,싊ꆣ펰ퟓ믣싊쫇뒢놸붵훁ퟮ뗍뗣쪱뗄튻훖뢡뚯믣맺쓚탅듻뗄춻좻퓶볓살ퟔ폚솽훖늻춬뗄탅듻삩헅춾싊ꆣ틲캪퓚췪좫풤웚쿂,듺샭믺릹뗄풤웚믣싊쿂붵뺶:뗚튻,컞맘솪뗄놾쫕틦뻟폐뿉쪵탐탔ꆣ뗚뛾,럹뛈폫쪵볊쿂붵럹뛈늻듦퓚욫닮늢쟒믵뇒퓚뇀삣뫳틲캪맺쓚탅듻뗄퓶볓뻟폐튻듎탔,듓뛸믵뇒뇡횵ퟮ믡돖탸뇡횵,헢쪱떱펰ퟓ믣싊헽뫃뗈폚만뚨믣싊쪱,훕캪0ꆣ헢뇭쏷평폚뇡횵싊뫍샻싊믡ퟮ훕쿂붵늢쟒룃맺믵뇒떱뻖뻍늻뗃늻럅웺만뚨믣싊뛸쪵탐뢡뚯평폚뒢놸뻟폐햳탔쿲짏탔,캪쇋뷢돶펰ퟓ믣싊쫗쿈믣싊ꆣ볙짨뒢놸듦뿮싊늻믡뗈폚웤뫏틢쮮욽,헢퇹캪쇋췆춨맽늻좷뚨쾵쫽랽램컒쏇뿉틔좷뚨돶펰ퟓ믣싊떼돶뻹뫢뗄펰ퟓ믣싊,뇘탫좷뚨돶et뫍rt뗄뗷헻슷et,et뿉틔쫗쿈평쿂쪽맀볆돶:et=k0+k1mt(11)뺶ꆣ웤훐k0뫍k1캪늻좷뚨쾵쫽ꆣ뾼닩쪽(11)뗄쪱볙짨풤웚뻟폐췪좫탔,펰ퟓ믣싊뷸탐뗷헻살놣볤탔컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶:돖닺쫐뎡뗄뻹뫢ꆣ헢퇹평쪽(1)ꆪ(4)뿉틔뗃돶:Ûet=k1mÛt(12)ꛇ-ꛁrt+ꛄdt+(1-ꛄ)Ft-et=-ꛃÛet(18)볙뚨ퟮ킡뒢놸쮮욽Fm=0,쪽(4)뫍(12)뇭쏷:쪽(18)퓚욽뫢쳵볾쿂캪:퓚뇀삣뫳샻싊쳥훆쿂놾뇒틔맺쓚탅듻삩헅쿠춬뗄쯙ꛇ-ꛁr+ꛄd+(1-ꛄ)F-e=0(19)뛈돖탸뇡횵ꆣ떱맺쓚탅듻퓶볓뻟폐튻듎탔늢쟒떱놾쇷뚯춬Ûet=k1ꛄÛdt=k1ꛄꛌ(13)쪱랢짺쪱,dt뫍Ft퓚뢡뚯믣싊훆쿂횵늻뇤ꆣ퓚룃붫쪽(13)듺죫쪽(7)늢훘탂낲업웚쿞뗃돶쪱볤훖쟩뿶쿂,듓쪽(18)훐복뗴쪽(19),컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶t뗄펰ퟓ믣싊캪:펰ퟓ믣싊뗄뚯첬뗈쪽캪:et=mt+(ꛃ+ꛁꛔ)k1ꛄꛌ(14)뇈뷏쪽(11)뫍(14)뗃돶:k1=1,k=(ꛃ+ꛁꛔ)ꛄꛌÛꛁ1et=ꛃ(rt-r)+(et-e)(20)r헢쪱펰ퟓ믣싊뿉틔킴ퟷ:듦뿮ힼ놸뷰싊뗄뗷헻춾뺶뿉평뗈쪽(5)룸돶ꆣet=(ꛃ+ꛁꛔ)ꛒꛌ+mt(15)평rd뗄뚨틥듺쳦쪽(5)훐뗄rd(뇈죧뗈쪽(6))늢평쇮뢡뚯웚볤ht=ꛄdt=ꛄ(d0+ꛌt)늢룹뻝쪽(8)쪽(1)ꆢ(3)ꆢ(4)뿉좷뚨돶뻹뫢뗄맺쓚샻싊,듦뿮ힼ놸훐mt뚨틥,쪽(15)뿉틔뇭쪾캪:뷰싊뗄뚯첬뗈쪽캪:82
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ싛틸탐쳥쾵퓚믵뇒춶믺릥믷훐뗄죚뷇즫ꆡÛ<ꚤh=ꛄꚤd+(1-ꛄ)(Fm-F0)=e-e(26)rt=ꛃ[ꛃꛋ-ꛔ(et-ꛇ+ꛁrt-ꛄdt-(1-ꛄ)Ft-ꛃrt]틲캪ꚣ-ꛌ+ꛍꛔ캪뢺,쯹틔횻폐믹뒡믵뇒뗄뺻퓶(21)볓닅믡떼훂뇡횵ꆣ늢쟒뫜죝틗횤쏷e(0)캪ꛔ뗄퓶몯듓쪽(21)훐복좥컈뚨횵늢쇮dtꆢFt퓚떯탔믣싊쫽ꆣ헢퇹틸탐뛔믵뇒탔릥믷죚풽뛠(벴틸탐뗄훆훐횵컈뚨늻뇤ꆣ틲듋,듦뿮ힼ놸뷰싊뚯첬뗈쪽뿉닺ퟩ뫏뗄샻싊쏴룐탔풽잿),룃릥믷쯹퓬돉뗄놾뇒ퟮ틔뇭쪾캪<:Ûrt=ꛃ[-ꛔ(et-e)-(ꛔꛁ+ꛃ)(rt-r)]돵뇡횵럹뛈풽듳ꆣ(22)춼2ꆡ럇풤웚탔맺쓚탅듻삩헅춼맺쓚탅듻뗄튻듎탔퓶볓뿉춨맽춼2살럖컶ꆣ1ꆡ쾵춳뚯첬춼쪽맺쏱뺭볃웰돵퓚e=e쪱뗄a뗣뒦폚컈뚨ힴ첬,맺쓚(20)(21)쯹쏨믦뗄뚯첬쾵춳평춼1쯹쪾ꆣ놾쫐뎡쪼훕뒦폚욽뫢ힴ첬ꆣÛe=0쿟뇭쏷쇋퓚탅듻뗄퓶볓믡떼훂쿟Ûr=0Ûe=0쿲폒틆뚯ꚤh떥캻ꆣi=3i쪱평폚믵뇒뇡횵늢쟒듦뿮ힼ놸뷰뇈싊쿂붵,룃쾵춳쿂r뫍e뗄쯹폐ퟩ뫏,헢퇹믵뇒늻듦퓚짽횵믲뇡횵뗄톹솦ꆣ퓚룃쿟ퟳ쿂랽,뗍듦뿮ힼ놸뷰뇈싊뫍믣싊붵떽뗣b,퓚룃뗣r=r(0),e=e(0)ꆣ듋쪱,쯦ퟅ틸뇭쏷쇋뷏뗍뗄맺쓚샻싊뫍뷏뗍뗄놾뇒풤웚짽횵싊ꆣ탐퓶볓ힼ놸뷰틔벰놾뇒뗄짽횵,뺭볃짏짽떽컈뚨캻퓚룃쿟뗄폒짏랽쟩뿶룕룕쿠랴ꆣ훃ꆣퟮ뫳뗄컈뚨캻훃캻폚c뗣,퓚룃뗣믣싊뒦폚뷏Û룟뗄뻹뫢쮮욽,듦뿮ힼ놸뷰뇈싊폫웚돵쿠춬ꆣꛔ풽r=0쿟뇭쏷쇋틸탐퓚놣돖쇷뚯탔춷듧늢뒦폚욽뫢ힴ첬쿂쪱r뫍e뗄쯹폐ퟩ뫏ꆣ룃쿟횮쿂,뷏뗍듳,r(0)뻍풽뗍,듓뛸e(0)뻍풽룟ꆣꛔ횵풽듳,낰ퟹ뗄맺쓚샻싊뇭쏷쇋뷏닮뗄듻뿮쫕틦싊,헢퇹틸탐믡컈뚨쒣탍쟺쿟뻍풽뚸,퓚r(0)룸뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂e(0)횵퓶볓웤쇷뚯닺뇈싊ꆣ퓚룃쿟횮짏,틸탐쟣쿲폚붵풽킡ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶ꛔ횵폫e(0)돉랴뇈맘쾵ꆣ뗍ힼ놸뷰뇈싊틔퓶볓듻뿮믱뗃쫕틦ꆣ뗈쪽(20)뫍4ꆡ헾닟폫뷡싛(22)쯹뇭쪾뗄쾵춳뿉평낰ퟹ컈뚨쒣탍살쮵쏷,웤뗈퓚튻맺틸탐쳥쾵ힴ뿶늻병뗄쟩뿶쿂,틸탐캣믺쪽캪-ꛌ):rt=r(ꚣ+ꛔ(et-e)(23)믡폕랢믵뇒캣믺뗄랢짺,뷸뛸룃맺뗄믵뇒쳥쾵붫쫜웤훐떽췾킲짵훁놻웈럅웺ꆣ좻뛸,듓짏쏦뗄럖컶훐컒쏇,ꚣ캪룃쾵춳뗄뢺컈뚨믹쫽늢쟒ꛌ=1/r>랢쿖:벴쪹쒳맺듦퓚붡뾵뗄틸탐쳥쾵,춶믺탔믵뇒릥0,ꛔ=ꛁ/ꛃ>0죧맻맺쓚탅듻뗄튻듎탔퓶볓퓚쪱볤믷죔좻뿉쓜랢짺,늢쟒룃틸탐쳥쾵캪춶믺릥믷쳡릩t=0쪱떼훂튻듎뇡횵,퓲쯦ퟅ뇡횵잰샻싊뗄퓶볓d,r붫쿂붵ꆣ쇋뷰살풴;폈웤쫇퓚뛔샻싊럧쿕쎻폐뷸탐쳗웚놣쇭췢횵뗄쟩뿶쿂,풤웚뗄믵뇒캣믺놬랢뗄쪱볤믡쳡잰,뛸,평폚틸탐ힼ놸뗄복짙뻟폐췪좫떯탔,t쪱뿌뗄듦뿮ힼ놸뷰뇈싊뿉틔뇭쪾캪럇풤웚뗄믵뇒캣믺웆뮵탔퓲룼듳ꆣ뛔춶믺탔믵뇒릥:믷뗄뚯첬럖컶뿉틔캪헾닟훆뚨헟쳡릩쒳킩닙ퟷ탔붨r(0)=ꛋ-ꛔ[e(0)-e],e(0)>e(24)룹뻝뗈쪽틩:헾닟훆뚨헟뿉틔춨맽쿞훆틸탐뗄듻뿮믮뚯살복(23)ꆢ(24)ꆢ뫍(6),짨ힼ놸뷰듦뿮뇈싊캪ꛋ,퓲퓚쪱볤t=0쪱뗄펰ퟓ믣싊뿉뇭쪾캪쟡믵뇒캣믺룸맺쏱뺭볃퓬돉뗄웆뮵돌뛈,늢쟒퓚맺:쓚틸탐듻뿮돉캪춶믺릥믷뗄캨튻뷰살풴뗄쟩뿶(ꚣꛌ)-e(0)=e+h(25)(ꚣ-ꛌ+ꛔꛍꚤ)쿂,뛔틸탐탅듻뗄쿞훆췪좫뿉틔ퟨ횹췢틽떼탍믵ꚤh캪뇒캣믺뗄랢짺ꆣ퓚틸탐뺭펪ힴ뿶솼뫃뗄쟩뿶쿂,믵t=0쪱뗄믹뒡믵뇒퓶뎤뗄냙럖쫽,뿉평쿂쪽뇭쪾(쿂뗚128):83
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚26뻭ꆡ뗚10웚쓜뗃떽쳡짽,닅쓜뫜뫃뗄랢믓릲펦폐뗄릦킧ꆣ쏦뗄릤ퟷ뮹뫜뛠,튲탨튪퓚랢햹훐늻뛏췪짆,떫쯼쫂쪵짏틑돉캪췸싧퓋캬늻뿉믲좱뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ4ꆡ뷡쫸폯뒫춳뗄낲좫맜샭랽쪽쫇붫럖즢퓚룷뗘ꆢ늻춬샠닎뾼컄쿗쾵춳뻍뷼럖뇰맜샭,헢퇹떼훂낲좫탅쾢뮥늻쿠춨[1]돰붣,낲럦,닌횾탋1탅쾢췸싧낲좫짨볆닟싔[J]1듳훚뿆벼,좫닟싔쓑틔놣돖튻튻뛔훂,늻쓜놣횤쾵춳헻쳥킧틦2006(1):96-971뗄랢믓ꆣ[2]닌뻼뫬1잳첸췸싧탅쾢낲좫뗄쯄룶닣듎[J]1탅쾢낲좫,SOC쫇헫뛔뒫춳맜샭랽쪽뗄튻듎뇤룯,쯼붫맘볼짨놸뗄낲좫맜샭벯훐떽튻웰,ퟮ듳뗄폅쫆쫇2002(06)1[3]헅맺럦1췸싧탅쾢낲좫뷢뻶랽낸[J]1볆쯣믺폫췸싧,2002캪춳튻낲좫맜샭쳡릩쇋췪헻욽첨,듓쏦쳡룟쇋뛔폚(17)1낲좫췾킲뗄뺫좷볬닢쓜솦뫍튻쳥뮯쿬펦쓜솦,듋췢[4]쇵펭럧,웮쏷1죝퓖벼쫵벰웤펦폃[J]1볆쯣믺펦폃퇐뺿,컒쏇탨튪붫SOC폫쿖폐낲좫맜샭훆뛈ꆢ쇷돌폐믺쿎2002(6):7-101뷓닅쓜랢믓웤릦킧ꆣ[5]맅샻폂,믆풪량,싞췲늮1췸싧낲좫퓋탐욽첨맜샭쳥쾵뷡릹SOC쫇튻룶탂짺쫂컯,맺쓚쎻폐돉쫬뗄퓋캬뺭퇩,퓚뇪ힼ훆뚨ꆢ폫튵컱벯돉뗈뗈랽퇐뺿[J]1뗧탅뿆톧,2006(02)1TheAnalysisofCybereconomySecuritySystemGUANGuo2hua(ZhejiangUniversity,HangZhou310028,China)Abstract:Incurrentcybereconomytime,informationsecurityisconsiderablyimportant1Asmoreandmoreweknowabouttheinformationse2curityꆪꆪꆪsuchasInformationAssuranceTechnicalFramework(IATF),InformationSecurityManagementSpecification(ISMS),InformationSystemSecurityEngineering(ISSE),RiskAnalysis(RA),hierarchyprotectionandreliableComputing,etc1,Ithinkincominginformationsecurityfields,weshouldnotonlyenhancecapability,function,andconvenienceofthesecurityequipmentandsystemthatwehave,butalsoprovidereliablesecuritymanagement,inordertoachievesystemsecurityandmakesurethatnetworkcanhaveitseconomicalandsocialbenefitsproperly1Keywords:networksecurity;securitysystem(짏뷓뗚83튳)뺩:뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧,2000.뇒뗄컈뚨탔뿉틔춨맽뛔틸탐닺뢺햮뇭뗄뿘훆뛸믱[2]믆뾡솢,폠캬뇲,헅헽.뷰죚릤돌ꆪꆪꆪ샭싛폫펦폃[M].커뗃ꆣ퓚틸탐뺭펪ힴ뿶뷏닮뛸늻뻟놸뗖폹럧쿕뗄쓜솦몺:커몺듳톧돶냦짧,2000.[3]쪱thetimingandmagnitudeofspeculativeAttacks[J]..,뇒횵뗄컈뚨탔폫틸탐뗄쟥뎥솦횮볤퓲돊쿖돶듋쿻뇋헇뗄맘쾵ꆣ헢쪱,헾닟훆뚨헟뇘탫퓚뇒횵컈뚨Econ.,1987,23:221-239.[4]:Evidencefrom뫍틸탐쟥뎥솦횮볤ퟶ돶톡퓱,룃헾닟톡퓱쫇튻룶뺭the1980s[J].,1990,9:143-156.볃ꆢ헾훎ꆢ틔벰튻쾵쇐훆뛈뗄몯쫽ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗[1]십춼.뷡릹뮯퇜짺릤뻟[M].쇖쳎,뛅폽잿,췵,룟잿,틫.놱OntheFinancingRoleofBankSysteminAttackofCurrencySpeculationCHUJing2yuan(DepartmentofEconomy,WuhanUniversityofTechnology,Wuhan430007,China)Abstract:,afewscholarsstudiedtherelationshipbetweenthesecounties’bankperformanceandthecrisis,,discussingthefinancingroleofgoodbanksysteminattackofcurrencyspeculation,thensuggeststhatit’:speculate;currencycrisis;banking128
