2005쓪뗚6웚헣ꆡ붭ꆡ짧ꆡ믡ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧2005쓪11퓂,2005ZHEJIANGꆡSOCIALꆡSCIENCESNov.,2005쯦믺탔뷰죚벷뛒뗄뫏풼럖컶3ꆪꆪꆪ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽ꇵꆡ닌믔쏷ꆡ믆ꆡ틣ꆡ헅쿾뮪ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡ놾컄춨맽뛔닺좨쏷컺,뺭펪벨킧폅솼뗄ꆰ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧ꆱ벷뛒낸샽뗄퇐뺿,쳖싛쇋벷뛒랢짺뗄풭틲;볬퇩쇋틸탐벷뛒닺짺믺훆뗄샭싛헹싛ꆣ놾컄퇓폃쇋DiamondandDy2bvig(1983)뫍PeckandShell(2003)뗄쒣탍,컒쏇랢쿖:뒫춳틸탐튵컱뗄듦뿮뫏풼쫜떽쿖뷰쇷뚯탔ꆢ뎥뮹쓜솦ꆢ쿈떽쿈럾컱뗄쿞훆,뒢뮧욫뫃뿉쓜쫜떽췢퓚튥퇔ꆢ죅뚯뫍뺭볃돥믷뗄펰쿬,컞싛(샻쾢)쫕죫쫇럱믡쫜떽쯰쪧,죎뫎뒢뮧뚼믡헹쿠듓뷰죚믺릹쳡좡쿖뷰ꆣ놾컄뮹쳖싛쇋뷢뻶벷뛒쫂볾뗄벸훖춾뺶뗄뿉탐탔ꆣ샽죧,헾뢮뻈훺폫틸탐맜훆ꆢ듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈ꆢꆰ죸싞럲ꆱ틸탐훆뛈(SuffolkSystem)틔벰룷훖뷰죚뒴탂ꆢ훐볤튵컱뛔폚뷢뻶벷뛒쫂볾뗄폐킧탔ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ틸탐벷뛒ꆡ듦뿮뫏풼ꆡퟔ컒쪵쪩뗄쯦믺탔ꆡ뫚ퟓ뻹뫢ퟷ헟믆틣,쓐,1980쓪짺,쿖캪싗뛘짌톧풺뷰죚뺭볃쾵늩쪿짺;닌믔쏷,쓐,1981쓪짺;헅쿾뮪,쓐,1978쓪짺,뻹캪놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄쮶쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣ(놱뺩ꆡ100871)튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔뛮햼GDP뗄뇈훘풶풶룟폚컷랽맺볒,릤튵짺닺훜놾뗄50%틔짏뫍풼80%뗄짌튵훜놾쫇듳솿뗄샭싛뫍쪵횤퇐뺿횤쏷쇋뷰죚뛔뺭볃뗄평틸탐듻뿮쳡릩뗄(틗룙,1996)ꆣ헢훖ꆰ맽뛈틸횧돖ퟷ폃,솼뫃뗄뷰죚쫐뎡뫍틸탐쳥쾵,뿉틔폐킧탐뮯ꆱ뫍맺폐슢뛏뗄훐맺뷰죚튵듦퓚탭뛠틾뮼뫍뗘듙뷸뺭볃뗄뎤웚퓶뎤(Beck,King,Demirgue-컊쳢ꆣ틸탐닺좨늻쏷좷ꆢ훎샭뷡릹좱랦ꆰ벤샸ꆱ뗄Kunt,Levine,2001)ꆣ맘폚훐맺뗄뷰죚랢햹ꆢ뺭볃횱뷓뗄뫳맻뻍쫇뻞뛮뗄늻솼닺,뢯냜쿖쿳뫍뻞퓶뎤,퇐뺿랢쿖,훐맺뗄뷰죚룄룯쳡룟쇋ꆰ뷰죚짮듳뗄뷰죚럧쿕(틗룙,PieterBottelier,2002)ꆣ튻뮯ꆱ뫍쫐뎡뮯돌뛈,뷰죚훐뷩ꋙ듌벤쇋훐맺쪵쳥뺭떩펵폐뻞뛮ꆰ늻솼닺ꆱ뗄틸탐쳥쾵돶쿖캣믺,붫볃뗄랢햹뫍뷡릹뇤잨ꆣ쒿잰,훐맺붨솢쇋틔쯄듳횱뷓펰쿬햮좨죋,벴럖즢뗄ꆢ훚뛠뗄킡뒢탮헟ꆣ듳맺폐짌튵틸탐캪맇룉,헾닟탔틸탐ꆢ막럝훆짌튵틸맦쒣뗄킡뒢뮧뛔쿖뷰뗄쇷뚯탔튪쟳뷏룟,죧맻돶탐ꆢ돇쫐짌튵틸탐ꆢ탅폃뫏ퟷ믺릹틔벰췢틸탐늢쿖췢퓚죅뚯,뫜뿉쓜돶쿖틸탐캣믺ꆣ뛔폚훐맺퓸듦뗄뛠풪뮯뗄틸탐쳥쾵ꆣ컒맺뻓쏱뒢탮뫍탅듻ퟜ뺭돶쿖뗄뷰죚쫂볾,탭뛠퇐뺿냑풭틲맩뷡캪틸탐ꆡꆡ3ꆡ룐킻ProfessorJamesRiedel(JohnsHopkinsUniversity),샮볍훩뷌쫚(첨췥헾훎듳톧);훜웤죊,돂욽뷌쫚(놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄)쳡돶뗄붨틩뫍횸떼;첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄폈뚨몣쿈짺뫍훐맺죋쏱틸탐몼훝훐탄횧탐뫩쿈짺퓚뗷퇐맽돌훐뗄냯훺ꆣ쪮럖룐킻놱뺩쳬퓲뺭볃퇐뺿쯹,헣붭듳톧쳬퓲쏱펪뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄뛔싛컄킴ퟷ쳡릩뗄ꆰ훐맺훆뛈뇤잨낸샽퇐뺿ꆱ쿮쒿뗄뷰횧돖,춬쪱뮹럇뎣룐킻쪢뫩뷌쫚ꆢ쪷뷺뒨뷌쫚뫍퇮죧퇥뷌쫚퓚퇐쳖믡짏룸돶뗄움싛뫍붨틩ꆣ펦뇠벭튪쟳,놾컄믹폚ퟷ헟뗝붻룸쳬퓲쯹낸샽뗄돵룥(2003),늢ퟛ뫏룼탂쇋ퟮ탂컄쿗쯵복뛸돉ꆣ뛁헟죧뛔뻟쳥뗄쒣탍늿럖뫍뺭퇩퇐뺿폐탋좤,뿉틔횱뷓쿲ퟷ헟쯷좡ꆣ43
닌믔쏷ꆢ믆ꆡ틣ꆢ헅쿾뮪:쯦믺탔뷰죚벷뛒뗄뫏풼럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽뗄닺좨늻쏷컺ꆢ헾웳늻럖폫뗘랽헾뢮뛔뷰죚믮뚯늻솼튵벨(Gorton1985;JacklinandBhattacharya,뗄룉풤뫍틾탔떣놣ꆢ좱랦뇘튪뗄뺺헹믺훆벰볠맜1988,틽ퟔ쪩붨뮴,2001)ꆪꆪꆪ벷뛒뿉쓜쫇ꆰ샭늻솦(놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄랢햹햽싔퇐뺿탔ꆱ뗄ꆣ뛸쇭튻맛뗣죏캪,벷뛒쫇틸탐쓚짺컊쳢킡ퟩ,1999;탬뗡쟬,2000;Perkins,2002)ꆣ뗄놩슶,죧맻틸탐쫇믹폚쿈살쿈럾컱뗄믹뒡쳡릩춬쪱맘폚ꆰ럇헽맦뷰죚ꆱꋚ뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿뇭쏷훐뛔듦뿮헟햮좨뗄뛒쿖,쓇쎴평폚틸탐닺쫇늻쇷맺뗄훐킡뷰죚믺릹ꆢ럇맺폐뗄뷰죚늿쏅랢햹럇뎣뚯뗄,뛸쟒쯼쏇컞램뛒쿖쎿룶듦뿮헟뗄뢺햮,쓇쎴톸쯙,쯼쏇틔탅폾뫍맘쾵캪믹뒡뗄죚뫍훎샭믺뫳떽뗄듦뿮헟뻍믡쫜쯰쪧ꆣ헢쎴뾴,벷뛒뿉쓜쫇훆,폐킧싊뗘쳡릩쫐뎡뮯뗄훐뷩럾컱,듙뷸쇋훐맺ꆰ럇샭탔ꆱ뗄ꆣ틲캪,뒫춳틸탐튵컱뗄쳘뗣뻶뚨쇋쮽펪뫍쟸폲뺭볃뗄랢햹(Park,Sehrt,1999,Allen틸탐튵벫죝틗쫜췢늿돥믷뗄펰쿬,평폚쫐뎡늻좷andQian,2002)ꆣ폐퇐뺿헟죏캪평폚틸탐뗄뺭펪뚨탔뗄듦퓚뫍틸탐튵쓚짺뗄든죵탔,죎뫎쯦믺쫂벨킧닮ꆢ닺뢺햮싊룟뚼뫍틸탐뗄닺좨뷡릹쏜쟐볾뗄랢짺,뚼폐뿉쓜돉캪폕쪹듦뿮죋ꆰ탅쓮ꆱ욫틆쿠맘,캪쇋뇜쏢퓚훐맺랢짺벷뛒쫂볾뫍뷰죚캣믺,뗄ꆰ떼믰쯷ꆱ,듓뛸틽랢틸탐뗄벷뛒(bankruns)뫍뇘탫룄룯뷰죚믺릹뗄닺좨뷡릹,늢쳡돶쇋쏱펪뮯ꆢ웆닺(bankfailures)쿖쿳(Diamond&Dybvig,막럝훆룄룯뗈랽낸(탬뗡쟬,2000)ꆣ1983,2000,PeckandShell,2003)ꆣ뒢뮧뛔폚뷰좻뛸,헦쪵쫀뷧죃컒쏇뛔ꆰ닺좨ꆱ싛뗄룄룯랽죚믺릹뗄탅폃ꆢ짹폾닺짺뮳틉쫇벷뛒랢짺뗄훷튪낸닺짺쇋뮳틉ꆣ쫇늻쫇횻튪닺좨쏷컺,닺훊솿풭틲(MathiasDewatripontandJeanTirole,1994)ꆣ솼뫃뻍뿉틔뇜쏢돶쿖벷뛒뗈뷰죚캣믺?놾컄춨맽컒쏇뗄퇐뺿붫듓ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ뗄뷇뛈살럖컶뛔폚튻뎡뺪탄뚯웇뗄벷뛒캣믺뗄낸샽퇐뺿,첽쳖벷뛒쿖쿳ꆣ뒫춳뗄틸탐튵컱,훷튪냼삨컼쫕듦뿮쿖쿳놳뫳뗄샭싛뷢쫍ꆣ놾컄뗄퇐뺿훷쳥뻍쫇:닺뫍랢럅듻뿮ꆣ듦뿮뫏풼냼몬ꆰ믮웚듦뿮ꆱ뫍ꆰ뚨웚좨쏷컺뗄쏱펪뷰죚믺릹ꆰ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧ꆱ,첩슡듦뿮ꆱ솽훖뫏춬탎쪽:ꆰ믮웚듦뿮ꆱ뫏춬맦뚨뒢뮧탅폃짧탅듻튵벨솼뫃ꆢ럧쿕뿘훆퇏룱ꆢ뺭펪벨킧폅뿉틔쯦쪱듓뷰죚믺릹쳡좡쿖뷰;ꆰ뚨웚듦뿮ꆱ뫏춬솼ꆢ닺훊솿맽펲ꋛ,내헕짏컄쯹틽퇐뺿뗄싟벭,맦뚨,퓚쫂쿈풼뚨뗄웚쿞틔뫳,뒢뮧늻떫뿉틔듓뷰벷뛒쫂볾늻펦룃랢짺퓚첩슡짭짏;떫쫇,2001쓪9죚믺릹쳡좡쿖뷰,뮹뿉틔믱뗃샻쾢쫕죫ꆣ듻뿮뫏퓂13죕훁9퓂15죕헣붭쪡첨훝쫐슷쟅쟸랢짺뒢풼쫇뷰죚믺릹뫍듻뿮죋(램죋)횮볤뗄풼뚨:듻뿮뮧벷뛒뗄쫂볾,잡잡쫇듓첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뾪쪼뗄ꆣ죋듓뷰죚믺릹믱뗃뷰;퓚쫂쿈풼뚨뗄웚쿞뫳,듻쓇쎴헢듎벷뛒폖펦죧뫎뷢쫍?뿮죋맩뮹뷰늢붻쓉쪹폃뷰뗄럑폃(듻뿮샻캪쪲쎴믡랢짺틸탐벷뛒쫂볾?샭싛짏쮵,뒫쾢);듻뿮뫏풼맦뚨쇋듻뿮헟풸틢듻뿮뗄쳵볾:듻춳뗄틸탐튵컱믹놾짏틀삵폚듦듻뿮횮볤뗄샻싊닮뿮뛮ꆢ뎥뮹쪱볤ꆢ샻싊뗖톺튪쟳뫍맦뚨탞룄듻뿮쳵뫍쪱볤웚쿞짏뗄닮틬,뛸믱좡럧쿕탔샻죳ꆣꆶ냍풼믲듟뮹듻뿮뗄솽랽쏦웵풼쳵뿮ꆣ뒫춳듦듻튵컱죻뛻킭뚨ꆷ맦뚨쇋맺볊틸탐뗄볠맜뇪ힼ,놾돤뗄쫕죫훷튪살풴폚ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱꋝ횮볤뗄샻쾢닮ꆣퟣ싊뷶캪8%,틸탐튵뗄뢺햮싊뿉틔뎬맽90%ꆣ평폚듦뿮뫏풼뗄쳘탔,ꆰ믮웚듦뿮ꆱ뒢뮧룹뻝뺭볃톧샭싛뛔벷뛒쳡돶솽룶훷튪뗄샭싛럖횧ꆣꋜ뫏춬풼뚨쯦쪱뿉틔쳡좡쿖뷰,ꆰ뚨웚듦뿮ꆱ뒢뮧튲튻훖맛뗣죏캪,벷뛒쫇듦뿮헟퓚좱랦탅쾢믲헟탅뿉틔늻싄탐뫏춬뗄풼뚨,쳡잰듓뷰죚믺릹쳡좡쿖쾢뫜짙뗄뮷뺳훐볠뚽틸탐볛횵뗄랽쪽ꆣ떱쯻쏇폐뷰,벴쪹샻쾢쫕죫믡쯰쪧ꆣ뷰죚믺릹컞램믲헟럇샭평쿠탅틸탐돉캪럧쿕헟쪱,뛔웤뒢탮뗄떣탄듙뎣삧쓑떥랽쏦춣횹듻뿮뫏풼,쳡잰듓뷨뿮죋뒦쫕쪹쯻쏇튪쟳뛒쿖듦뿮ꆣ듓ꆰ쮫쿲뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆ꆱ믘듻뿮,듻뿮뷰뗄쇷뚯탔뗍폚듦뿮뷰뗄쇷뚯뗄뷇뛈퇐뺿랢쿖,틸탐늻쓜맛닢떽듦뿮헟뗄헦쪵탔ꆣ쯹틔,컒쏇죏캪듦뿮뫏풼횴탐뗄웚쿞뷡릹뫍쇷뚯탔탨튪,뛸듦뿮헟튲늻횪뗀틸탐닺뗄헦쪵풼쫸쳵볾뗄닮틬탔,뻍쫇뷰죚믺릹랢짺ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ뗄ힴ뿶ꆣ떱튻늿럖듦뿮헟믱뗃쇋맘폚틸탐럧쿕닺룹풴,튲쫇ꆰ뷰죚든죵탔ꆱ뗄놾훊ꆣ쿂컄춨맽튻룶믘놨뗄늻샻탅쾢(뛸늻쫇떣탄웤쯻듦뿮헟뗄탐뺭펪튵컱솼뫃뗄뷰죚믺릹ꆪꆪꆪ첩슡돇쫐탅폃뚯)쪱,틸탐벷뛒뻍믡ퟷ캪캨튻뗄뻹뫢뛸랢짺ꆣ짧ꆪꆪꆪ벷뛒캣믺뗄낸샽퇐뺿,살쳖싛쿖듦뷢뻶틲듋,틸탐벷뛒폐튻룶믹놾뗄룹풴,쓇뻍쫇틸탐뗄ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ캣믺뗄춾뺶벰늻춬뻈훺춾뺶뗄샻뇗ꆣ컒44
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2005쓪뗚6웚ꆡ쏇쾣췻퇩횤뫍쳖싛틔쿂볙쮵뫍룄룯헾닟:랢햹1.벷뛒ꆰ쯦믺탔ꆱ뗄쒣탍볙쮵ꆣ뒫춳틸탐튵첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧(틔쿂볲돆ꆰ첩슡ꆱ)돉솢폚컱뗄듦뿮뫏풼쫜떽쿖뷰쇷뚯탔ꆢ뎥뮹쓜솦ꆢ쿈떽쿈1993쓪6퓂28죕,쫇훐맺죋쏱틸탐엺ힼ뗄튻볒쟸럾컱뗄쿞훆,뒢뮧욫뫃뿉쓜쫜떽췢퓚튥퇔ꆢ죅뚯뫍폲탔뗄막럝훆뷰죚믺릹,뾪햹룷쿮짌튵틸탐튵컱,뺭볃돥믷뗄펰쿬,컞싛(샻쾢)쫕죫쫇럱믡쫜떽쯰뺭펪쟸폲캪첨훝쫐슷쟅쟸ꆣ훁2003쓪8퓂,첩슡쪧,죎뫎뒢뮧뚼믡헹쿠듓뷰죚믺릹쳡좡쿖뷰ꆣ릲폐10볒럖횧믺릹,웤훐첨훝뺭볃벼쫵뾪랢쟸12.뒫춳틸탐튵컱뗄뫏풼뷡릹뫍풼쫸쳵볾뗄쳘볒,슷쟅쟸9볒ꆣ슷쟅쟸췢뗄헢볒췸뗣떱쪱쫇춨맽쫢탔쫇벷뛒뗄룹풴ꆣ평폚뒫춳틸탐튵컱훐ꆰ듦뿮ꆪ췸뗣훃뮻맩죫첩슡뗄ꆣ쪮볒뺭펪췸뗣틑폐뻅볒듦듻뿮뫏풼ꆱ뗄쪱볤웚쿞ꆢ샻싊뷡릹ꆢ쇷뚯탔풼쫸뗈쳘뿮뎬맽틚풪,웤훐ퟮ듳맦쒣틑뎬맽4틚풪ꆣ첩슡쫇탔,췢늿뮷뺳뗄튻룶쯦믺죅뚯,뻍폐뿉쓜틽랢뒢뮧튻볒뒿쏱펪뷰죚믺릹,쪮쓪샛볆쓉쮰뎬맽8000췲뛔뷰죚믺릹뗄뎥뢶쓜솦뗄뮳틉ꆣ죧맻뷰죚믺릹뗄풪;본폚듋,뗘랽헾뢮럇뎣훘쫓첩슡뗄뺭펪;슷쟅쟸쿖뷰횧뢶폐삧쓑,뻍럇뎣죝틗퓬돉ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ캣믺ꆣ헾뢮퓚첩슡펵폐튻뚨뗄듦뿮뫍튵컱췹살ꆣ3.헾뢮뛔돶쿖벷뛒쫂볾뗄풮훺맦퓲,펦룃좨듓듦솿짏뾴,첩슡뗄랢햹틑뺭떽듯쇋튻뚨뗄뫢ꆰ닆헾럧쿕ꆱ뫍ꆰ틸탐튵ힼ죫맜훆ꆱ뗄헛훔ꆣꆰ맦쒣ꆣ뷘훁2003쓪6퓂30죕,룷쿮듦뿮폠뛮ꋞ캪닺훊솿ꆱ뫍ꆰ뺭펪튵벨ꆱ돉캪헾뢮뻶닟뗄훷튪뫢솿2917틚풪,룷쿮듻뿮폠뛮ꋟ캪1710틚풪,듦듻뇈횸뇪,닺훊솿뫃뗄뷰죚믺릹헾뢮췹췹뿉틔닉좡캪5712%;닺ퟜ뛮듯떽30137틚풪,뫋탄놾뻈훺듫쪩,랴횮뻍쫇뎷쿺웤듓쫂틸탐튵컱뗄횴헕,캪473913췲풪(웤훐쪵쫕놾294817틚풪),뷻횹뷸죫뷰죚탐튵ꆣ놾돤ퟣ싊캪2110%;2003쓪짏냫쓪뗄뺻샻죳캪4.만뚨놣싊ꆢ헾뢮뛀뗄ꆰ듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈ꆱ늻1023췲풪ꆣ늻솼듻뿮싊캪1187%(웤훐3193췲뿉쓜듓룹놾짏뷢뻶벷뛒컊쳢ꆣꆰ듦뿮놣쿕ꆱ만좻뗄늻솼듻뿮훷튪쫇폢웚듻뿮,폐2000췲ퟳ폒맀볆뿉틔퓶잿뷰죚믺릹뷰뗄쇷뚯탔,떫쫇틀좻컞램쓜쫕믘)ꆣ퓚헻룶슷쟅쟸,첩슡뗄듦ꆢ듻뿮쫐뎡럝뷢뻶ꆰ듦듻뫏풼ꆱ횮볤뗄쓚퓚쎬뛜ꆣ뛸쟒,튻떩쪵뛮햼떽떱뗘뷰죚믺릹듦듻ퟜ뛮뗄18%뫍1615%,탐ꆰ듦뿮놣쿕ꆱ훆뛈,믡퓶볓뺭펪헟뗄ꆰ뗀뗂럧뻹룟맽춬뗘쟸쯄듳맺폐틸탐럖횧믺릹뗄쫐뎡럝쿕ꆱꆢ믺믡훷틥탐캪뫍헾뢮탅폃캪듺볛뗄뻞듳죭뛮ꆣퟷ캪튻볒돇쫐탅폃짧,첩슡틑뺭웄뻟맦쒣ꆣ풼쫸뗄캣믺뒦샭돉놾ꆣ듓쪮쓪뗄랢햹살뾴,첩슡뗄랢햹놣돖ퟅ컈늽5.뷰죚믺릹뗄맦쒣삩듳틀좻컞램뷢뻶벷뛒쫂잰뷸뗄첬쫆,뺻닺샻죳싊놣돖퓚뷏룟쮮욽,쪮쓪볾뗄랢짺,짵훁믡돶쿖럧쿕뗄뒫뗝뫍룼볓퇏훘뗄쓪뻹퓚12139%ퟳ폒;첩슡뗄듦듻뿮퓶뎤욽컈,뷼벷뛒쯰쪧ꆣ뷰죚믺릹춨맽삩듳맦쒣살쳡룟횧뢶쓜죽쓪뗄쓪뻹듦듻뿮퓶뎤쯙뛈듯떽40%;쪮쓪살뗄솦,튻떩돶쿖벷뛒쫂볾,뷰죚믺릹뿉틔듓룷훖럖횧늻솼닺싊튻횱뗍폚3%ꆣ(춼싔)믺릹뗷뚯뷰,횧풮놻벷뛒뗄뷰죚췸뗣ꆣ떫쫇,막좨뷡릹:첩슡캴퓸폐맽퓶삩막뗄뺭샺,웤ꆰ삩듳맦쒣ꆱ죔좻컞램뷢뻶ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ뗄쓚퓚쎬막좨뷡릹쪮쓪살컈뚨늻뇤ꆣ막뚫ퟜ쫽캪40쏻,웤뛜ꆣ뺭펪맦쒣뗄삩듳,뿉쓜믡퓬돉벷뛒뗄싻퇓ꆣ훐ퟔ좻죋32죋,웳튵램죋8캻(좫늿쫇쏱펪웳6.폐킧뗄뷢뻶춾뺶:룷훖뷰죚뒴탂ꆢ훐볤튵컱튵),ퟮ듳웳튵막뚫돖막뇈샽햼ퟜ막놾뗄15%,ퟮ뗄뾪랢틔벰ꆰ죸싞럲ꆱ틸탐쳥훆(SuffolkSystem)ꆣ듳룶죋막뚫뗄돖막뇈샽뷓뷼10%ꆣퟔ랢붨솢릲춬놣쿕훆뛈뫍폫웤쯻틸탐릲춬붨솢웤튵컱뷡릹:첩슡뗄튵컱벯훐퓚킡뛮뛌웚듻뿮ꆣ쯼샠탍뗄뫏ퟷ탔훆뛈ꆢ랢햹쫕좡럾컱럑캪훷뗄훐볤퓚듦뿮훐87%캪럇뒢탮듦뿮;뷘훁2003쓪6퓂,튵컱,쯤좻컞램듓룹놾짏뷢뻶ꆰ듦듻뫏풼ꆱ쎬뛜,떫듦뿮뾪뮧쫽틑듯16뛠췲뮧,뮧뻹듦뿮늻떽2췲ꆣ쫇튻떩틸탐돶쿖쇋벷뛒뗄캣믺,뻍뿉틔폃틸탐솪쏋쿠펦듻뿮뗄뷡릹튲듦퓚웚쿞뛌ꆢ떥뇊쫽뛮킡뗄쳘ퟩ횯뗄풮훺틔벰훐볤튵컱뗄쫕틦살싺ퟣ탨쟳ꆣ뗣ꆣ50췲풪틔쿂뗄듻뿮햼쇋85%;듓듻뿮뗄웚쿞뛾ꆢ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽뾴,냫쓪틔쿂뗄햼ퟜ듻뿮뗄65%,튻쓪틔짏뗄뷶햼4%ꆣ첩슡뗄훷튪튵컱쫇듦듻뿮튵컱,샻쾢쫕1.퇐뺿놳뺰:첨훝뺭볃폫첩슡뗄뺭펪튵벨뫍죫햼ퟜ쫕죫뗄89%ퟳ폒ꆣ45
닌믔쏷ꆢ믆ꆡ틣ꆢ헅쿾뮪:쯦믺탔뷰죚벷뛒뗄뫏풼럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽듓틔짏쫽뻝뿉볻,첩슡뗄튵컱벯훐폚킡뛮뗄탅폃짧쳡뿮ퟜ뛮풼캪죋쏱뇒7ꆫ8틚풪ꆣ쓇쎴,벷룟쇷뚯탔듦듻뿮ꆣ떫내헕틸탐튵뗄뎣맦,킡뛮룟뛒쫇죧뫎뾪쪼뗄?쇷뚯탔듻뿮럧쿕듳ꆢ떥캻듻뿮돉놾룟,틑돉캪웺횮2.벷뛒뗄웰풴폫맽돌늻벰뗄쫝맇춷,뛸쟒룷듳틸탐뚼퓚듳솦뾪췘훐볤벷뛒뗄ꆰ떼믰쯷ꆱ럇뎣볲떥ꆣ튻쏻퓸뺭훷맜튵컱,웚췻붫횮엠폽돉쿂튻룶샻죳뗣ꆣ첩슡횮쯹슷쟅뷰죚쫂컱뗄헾뢮룟벶맙풱,짦쿓뢯냜놻헣붭틔퓚뷰죚믺릹뺺헹벤쇒뗄슷쟅쟸췑펱뛸돶,욾뷨쪡볍싉볬닩늿쏅ꆰ쮫맦ꆱ,헣붭쪡볍싉볬닩늿쏅튪뗄뻍쫇죋탔뮯ꆢ쫐뎡뮯뗄뗄쇩믮럾컱ꆣ웤뺭펪돉쟳첩슡ퟜ뺭샭췵뻻잰췹몼훝뫋쪵쟩뿶ꆣ췵뻻퓚몼릦뗄맘볼췹췹놻맩쓉캪:룹뻝쟸폲뺭볃쳘헷뷸탐훝웚볤,첨훝뗘쟸돶쿖쇋ꆰ췵뻻놻ꆱꆢꆰ돇쫐탅폃ힼ좷쫐뎡뚨캻,틀췐돤럖벰쪱뗄탅쾢폅쫆,캪훐킡짧돶컊쳢ꆱ뗈뗈뒫퇔ꆣ9퓂13죕쿂컧,퓚첩슡룷웳튵뿍뮧쳡릩룶탔뮯럾컱ꆣ첩슡뷸탐뗄쯄쿮훆펪튵뗣쏅뿚,탭뛠뒢뮧업웰쇋쳡뿮뗄뛓컩ꆣ췭짏뛈:뒴탂듦뿮믽럖훆ꆢ쿖뷰쇷닢움ꆢ뿍뮧뺭샭퓰죎7뗣ퟳ폒닅퓚떱뗘헾뢮뗄냯훺쿂,첩슡닅춣횹랢훆벰듻뿮떣놣훆쫇웤뿬쯙랢햹뗄믹뒡,룼쫇폅폚럅듦뿮ꆣ떱췭,룷벶헾뢮쏅퇐뺿쇋뛔닟,뻶뚨듓맺폐짌튵뷰죚믺릹뗄ퟩ횯뒴탂(믆틣ꆢ닌믔쏷ꆢ헅첨훝룷뗘뗷벯5틚뷴벱뷰,뛸쟒퓚듎죕7쪱잰쿾뮪,2003)ꆣ쯍듯첩슡ꆣ9퓂14죕짏컧,튻랽쏦첨훝쫐쫐뎤뗧첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄랢햹폫뺭펪튵벨(벷뛒쫓붲뮰ꆢ슷쟅쟸탐헾쫗뎤뫍췵뻻쟗ퟔ뫍뒢뮧뛔뮰ꆢ잰):평폚뒫춳뷰죚쳥훆뗄뻖쿞탔(췸뗣짨훃뫍듻좰쮵틔쿻돽튥퇔뫍룷훖틉싇;쇭튻랽쏦,첩슡늻춣뿮뛮뛈뗄쿞훆),맺폐틸탐퓚슷쟅붨짨돵웚컞램횹룸뒢뮧랢럅뷰ꆣ퓚룷랽늻킸얬솦쿂,14뫅짏폐킧뗘쿲훐킡돇쫐쏱펪웳튵쳡릩뷰죚럾컱,퓚쟸컧10쪱ퟳ폒,첩슡쏅뿚뗄뛓컩붥붥즢좥ꆣ좻뛸,폲뺭볃쳘헷뫍쳥훆실닮횮볤뗄볐러쿂,첩슡돇쫐뻍퓚떱쳬쿂컧,틸ퟹ돇쫐탅폃짧퓚첨훝룷뗘뗄펪탅폃짧욾뷨ퟔ짭훆뛈뫍탅쾢뗄폅쫆,ퟔ돉솢틔살튵쯹쏅뿚튲돶쿖쇋듳솿뗄쳡뿮뒢뮧,헾뢮뫍틸ퟹ뺭펪튵벨폅솼,랢햹쯙뛈뺪죋ꆣ떽2001쓪6퓂돇쫐탅폃짧틔벰첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗷폃쇋듳솿뗗,첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄듦뿮폠뛮듯1418틚풪,듻뷰,틔럀횹쿖뷰뗄뛌좱ꆣ퓚룷랽뗄좰쮵뫍뷢쫍횮뿮폠뛮913틚풪,늻솼듻뿮싊뷶캪219%ꆣ룼횵뫳,틸ퟹ돇쫐탅폃짧뗄벯훐쳡뿮컊쳢튲퓚14죕쿂뗃훘쫓뗄쫇,첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧튻횱놣돖솼뫃뗄탅컧뷢뻶쇋ꆣ듻닺훊솿,컥쓪듻뿮욽뻹폢웚싊1174%,듻뿮첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧벷뛒쫂볾뗄쪱볤쮳탲캪:폢웚싊뿘훆퓚215%틔쿂,첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧1997ꆢꆤ9퓂13죕쿂컧3뗣:뾪쪼돶쿖듳솿뒢뮧업1998쓪솬탸솽쓪좫쏦췪돉닺뢺햮뇈샽맜샭11뛓쿖쿳ꆣ쿮횸뇪,쏻쇐좫맺돇탅쾵춳잰쎩ꆣꆤ9퓂13죕췭짏7뗣:뒢뮧듓ꆰ첩슡ꆱ쳡뿮릲ퟜ횮,듓쪮쓪(1993ꆫ2003쓪)뗄랢햹살뾴,볆1199틚풪ꆣ퓚벷뛒잰뫍벷뛒뫳,첩슡뗄랢햹뚼놣돖ퟅ컈늽잰ꆤ9퓂13죕췭짏:헾뢮뫍죋쏱틸탐뾪믡뻶뷸뗄첬쫆ꆣ첩슡뗄듦듻뿮퓶뎤욽컈,2000쓪훁뚨:퓚듎죕짏컧7뗣횮잰,죫ꆰ닆헾듦뿮ꆱ10002002쓪쓪뻹듦듻뿮퓶뎤쯙뛈듯떽40%;뺻닺샻췲풪ꆣ죋쏱틸탐엺ힼ뚯폃좫뛮ힼ놸뷰7705췲풪ꆣ죳싊놣돖퓚뷏룟쮮욽,쪮쓪쓪뻹퓚12139%ퟳ폒;ꆤ9퓂14죕짏컧:ꆰ첩슡ꆱ춬튵닰뷨4000췲쪮쓪살뗄늻솼닺싊튻횱뗍폚3%ꆣ퓚훐맺틸탐풪,릲뗷죫뷰12705췲풪ꆣ뷧첩슡뗄튵벨컞틉쫇돶샠냎?뗄ꆣꆤ9퓂14죕쿂컧:ꆰ첩슡ꆱ뗄벷뛒쿖쿳춣횹ꆣ좻뛸,뻍쫇헢퇹튻볒뺭펪튵벨폅솼뗄뷰죚믺ꆤ9퓂15죕:ꆰ첩슡ꆱ듦뿮폠뛮쿂붵1134틚릹뻓좻뻭뷸쇋튻뎡ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ쫂볾ꆣ2001쓪9퓂13풪,닆헾듦뿮퓙듎죫25200췲풪ꆣ평폚벷뛒틑죕훁9퓂15죕,슷쟅쟸랢짺쇋뒢뮧벷뛒쫂볾ꆣ벷뺭춣쾢,맩뮹춬튵닰뷨4000췲풪ꆣ뛒뗄뛔쿳믹놾쫇첨훝뗘쟸뗄쏱볤탅폃짧,웤훐쯰ꆤ떽9퓂30죕,듦뿮폠뛮쿂붵3172틚풪ꆣ쪧ퟮ듳뗄솽볒캪첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뫍틸ퟹ돇쫐탅폃헾뢮탐캪:ퟜ쳥뛸퇔,쏦뛔잰쯹캴폐뗄캣믺,짧;뮹폐튻볒ꆰ탅듯탅폃짧ꆱ쫂뫳놻튪쟳춣튵헻떱뗘헾뢮뗄뒦샭쫇맻뛏ꆢ폐킧뗄뫍뿆톧뗄ꆣ퓚뻶뛙ꆣ뻝솽볒탅폃짧뗄뢺퓰죋맀볆:솽쳬횮쓚,솽볒닟랽쏦,헾뢮뫍죋쏱틸탐쫇룹뻝첩슡뗄닺훊솿46
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2005쓪뗚6웚ꆡ뇭튻벷뛒웚볤듦뿮폠뛮쟩뿶틚풪,햼듦뿮ퟜ퓶볓뛮뗄88%;뚨웚듦뿮퓶볓쪱볤듦뿮폠뛮듦뿮쿂붵쫽솿0173틚풪,햼듦뿮ퟜ퓶볓뛮뗄12%ꆣ뷘훁2003(틚풪)(틚풪)쓪6퓂30죕,룷쿮듦뿮폠뛮ꋠ캪2917틚풪,룷쿮9퓂13죕12199N/A듻뿮폠뛮ꋡ캪1710틚풪,듦듻뇈캪5712%;닺9퓂14죕111001199ퟜ뛮듯떽30137틚풪,뫋탄놾캪473913췲풪9퓂15죕91661134(웤훐쪵쫕놾294817틚풪),놾돤ퟣ싊캪9퓂16ꆫ30죕912801392110%;2003쓪짏냫쓪뗄뺻샻죳캪1023췲풪ꆣ릲볆/3172늻솼듻뿮싊캪1187%(웤훐3193췲뗄늻솼듻뿮ꆡꆡ뇭뛾벷뛒쫂볾뷰뗷뛈쟩뿶훷튪쫇폢웚듻뿮,폐2000췲ퟳ폒맀볆쓜쫕믘)ꆣ퓚헻룶슷쟅쟸,첩슡뗄듦ꆢ듻뿮쫐뎡럝뛮햼떽떱뗘쿮쒿쪱볤9퓂14죕9퓂15죕뷰죚믺릹듦듻ퟜ뛮뗄18%뫍1615%ꆣ닆헾듦뿮죫1000췲풪25200췲풪뷰춬튵닰죫4000췲풪N/A뗷죫죋쏱틸탐엺ힼ뚯폃좫뛮ힼ놸뷰7705췲풪N/A뷰맩뮹춬튵뗷돶닰죫뷰/4000췲풪춼튻ꆡ듦뿮폠뛮(벷뛒쫂볾잰뫳쪱볤:9/13ꆫ12/31)ꆡꆡ쇏살풴:룹뻝첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧2001쓪닆컱놨룦ꆣꆡꆡ쇏살풴:룹뻝첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧2001쓪닆컱놨룦ꆣ뫍뺭펪ힴ뿶뻶뚨쫇럱쿲웤힢죫뷰;춬쪱,뛔폚죽ꆢ벷뛒뗄샭싛럖컶뫍볙쮵퇩횤닺훊솿뗍쇓뗄탅듯얩듥탅폃짧ퟶ돶쇋맘뇕뗄뻶퓚쏨쫶첩슡벷뛒쫂볾잰잰뫳뫳횮뫳,쿂쏦컒뚨ꆣ퓚뛔쫂볾뗄뒦샭랽쏦:헾뢮쫇룹뻝뫍탅폃짧ꆢ쏇쫔ퟅ듓샭싛쒣탍뷇뛈살럖컶헢듎벷뛒,늢퇩횤룷볒뷰죚믺릹뗄튵죋풱쳖싛뫳,뻶뚨틔ퟜ듦뿮벷뛒쯦믺탔뗄볙쮵ꆣ뛮뗄1/3캪뗷뚯뷰뗄뗗쿞,늢쟒뮹듓웤쯼뗘쟸11샭싛ퟛ쫶뗷뚯쇋쿠펦뗄뷰ퟷ캪ힼ놸뷰;퓚뷰뗄뗷뚯뫍ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ(BankRuns)퓚ꆶ탂엁뛻룱샗럲믵뇒퓋쯍맽돌훐,튲쫇췲컞튻쪧뗄,ퟮ훕쪵쿖쇋뿘훆뫍뷰죚듳듇뗤ꆷ훐놻뷢쫍캪ꆰ떱튻룶틸탐뗄뫜뛠뿍뷢뻶컊쳢뗄쒿뇪ꆣ뛸쟒,떱뗘쎻폐돶쿖튻웰틲캪뮧퓚뛌웚쓚뚼튪쟳좡돶쯻쏇뗄듦뿮뻍믡랢짺틸탐벯훐쳡뿮뛸틽랢뗄훎낲폫탌쫂낸볾ꆣퟮ훕,퓚룷벷뛒ꆱꆣ틲캪벴쪹튻룶뺭펪붡뾵뗄틸탐뗄쇷뚯탔랽뗄얬솦쿂,솽볒탅폃짧뛈맽쇋벷뛒캣믺ꆣ볛횵튲믡킡폚웤캴뎥뮹듦뿮뗄볛횵,쯹틔틸탐벷31벷뛒틔뫳뗄뷰죚튵컱뛒뿉쓜퓚뫜뛌뗄쪱볤쓚뫄뺡틸탐뗄닺,쪹벸쳬첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뺭샺쇋벷뛒뗄쫂볾틔뫳,늻잰뮹뾴쯆붡뾵뗄틸탐ퟟ쿲웆닺ꆣ뷶쎻폐랢짺룼듳맦쒣뗄쳡뿮쿖쿳,튲쎻폐돶쿖뺭퓚틸탐벷뛒뗄컄쿗훐,훷튪폐솽샠늻춬맛뗣ꆣ펪ힴ뿶늻뛏뛱뮯ꆢ튻늻헱뗄쟩뿶ꆣ평폚탅폃짧튻샠쫇Diamond&Dybvig(1983)뗄평첫퇴뫚ퟓ뒥닺훊솿폅솼ꆢ늻샻튥퇔뗄웆쏰ꆢ뺭펪맜샭짏뗄얬랢뗄ퟔ컒쪵쪩뗄틸탐벷뛒쒣탍ꆣD-D쒣탍쿈볙짨솦,벷뛒쫂볾랢짺틔뫳(9퓂30죕훁12퓂31쇋듦뿮죋쏦쇙쿈떽쿈럾컱뗄풼쫸쳵볾,죏캪:평폚죕),듦뿮ퟜ뛮랴뛸퓶볓6128틚풪ꆣ웤훐,웳튵듦쫐뎡늻좷뚨폀풶뚼쫇컞램쳓뇜뗄,죎뫎쯦믺쫂볾뗄뿮퓶볓2160틚풪,햼듦뿮ퟜ퓶볓뛮뗄41%;룶쳥랢짺,뚼뿉틔돉캪폕쪹듦뿮죋ꆰ탅쓮ꆱ욫틆뗄ꆰ떼믰릤짌뮧듦뿮퓶볓3105틚풪,햼듦뿮ퟜ퓶볓뛮뗄쯷ꆱ;룃쒣탍횤쏷쇋,춨맽캪듦뿮죋뗄욫뫃돥믷쳡릩49%;뻓쏱뒢탮듦뿮퓶볓0163틚풪,햼듦뿮ퟜ퓶놣쿕,듦뿮뫏풼쓜릻룸돶ퟮ폅뗄엤훃,춬쪱튲믡떼볓뛮뗄10%ꆣ퓚듦뿮웚쿞짏:믮웚듦뿮퓶볓5155훂듺볛룟낺뗄벷뛒뿖믅ꆣ듦뿮죋폐뛠폚튻룶뗄뻹47
닌믔쏷ꆢ믆ꆡ틣ꆢ헅쿾뮪:쯦믺탔뷰죚벷뛒뗄뫏풼럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽뫢:튻훖쫇듦뿮죋풤웚틸탐믡떹뇕,쯻쏇뚼좥좡돶늻솼튵벨쿔좻늻쫇헢듎벷뛒뗄풭틲ꆣ떽듦뿮,틸탐믡떹뇕;쇭튻훖뻹뫢쫇듦뿮죋늢늻풤웚2001쓪6퓂뗗,첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄듦뿮폠뛮듯틸탐떹뇕,횻폐쓇킩탨튪쿖뷰뗄듦뿮죋좡뿮,헢퇹1418틚풪,듻뿮폠뛮913틚풪,듦듻뇈캪6218%,틸탐붫놣돖붡뾵,헢쫇뫃뗄폐킧럧쿕럖떣뗄뻹뫢ꆣ늻솼듻뿮싊뷶캪219%ꆣ룼훘튪뗄쫇,2001쓪잰첫퇴뫚ퟓ뻶뚨쇋ퟔ컒횴탐뗄뷡맻ꆣ평폚솽훖뻹뫢첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧탅듻닺훊솿튻횱놣돖솼뫃,벷뗄듦퓚,튻볒퓚닺훊솿랽쏦뚼낲좫뗄틸탐뿉쓜믡뛒랢짺뗄잰컥쓪듻뿮욽뻹폢웚싊1174%,듻뿮폢틲캪췢늿쫂볾뒥랢뗄틸탐벷뛒뛸떹뇕ꆣ퓚D-D웚싊뿘훆퓚215%틔쿂ꆣ첩슡뗄펯샻쮮욽튲튻횱붨솢뗄샭싛뿲볜쿂,삩햹럖컶틸탐벷뛒컊쳢뗄컄쿗놣돖뷏룟쮮욽,1996ꆫ2000쓪쓪뻹뺻샻죳캪뮹폐뫜뛠:죧Bhattacharya뫍Gale(1987)뾼싇쇋뛠66717췲풪,2000쓪첩슡뗄쮰뫳뺻샻죳캪711144룶틸탐쏦쇙쇷뚯탔돥믷쪱뗄쟩탎,쳖싛쇋틸탐볤춬췲풪,뺻닺4542췲풪,뺻닺샻죳싊룟듯튵쫐뎡퓚뷢뻶틸탐벷뛒컊쳢랽쏦뗄ퟷ폃;Hellwig15166%ꆣ틲듋,늻맜듓닺훊솿뮹쫇펯샻쓜솦살(1994)퓚럖컶훐틽죫쇋샻싊럧쿕,쮵쏷튻랽쏦듦뿮뾴,퓚벷뛒횮잰,첩슡뗄뺭펪튵벨쫇솼뫃뗄ꆣ쯹캽죋펦떱뫍틸탐릲춬럖떣럧쿕,쇭튻랽쏦죧맻틸탐쿫틸탐늻솼튵벨떼훂벷뛒,믲헟닺뢺햮뷡릹뛱뮯럀횹듦뿮죋쳡잰좡뿮늢퓙춶,퓲뇘탫훁짙쿲듦뿮퓬돉틸탐든죵뗄쮵램,폃떽첩슡짭짏쏷쿔쫇탐늻죋쳡릩웤퓚뷰죚쫐뎡짏쓜릻믱뗃뗄샻싊;Rochet뫍춨뗄ꆣTirole(1996)뗄럖컶횸돶,죧맻훐퇫틸탐뛔틸탐벷듓캢맛뷇뛈뾴,컒쏇늻럱죏듦뿮죋뫍듻뿮죋뛒럧쿕닉좡럅죎첬뛈뛸틀삵폚짌튵틸탐벰웤뫏춬횮볤듦폐탅쾢늻뛔돆,떫쫇,첩슡뗄쮽폐닺좨뫍쯄랽ퟔ컒맜샭뿘훆럧쿕,퓲틸탐웆닺붫믡싻퇓ꆣퟛ짏쿮훆뛈뒴탂업돽쇋ꆰ믺믡훷틥ꆱ탐캪뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ쯹쫶,럀횹틸탐벷뛒뗄맘볼틲쯘쫇볓잿듦뿮죋뛔틸퓚쎻폐맺볒탅폃횧돖뗄잰쳡쿂,첩슡컼쫕듦뿮틀탐싄풼뗄탅탄ꆣꋢ뾿뗄쫇웤폅훊뗄럾컱뫍ꆰ듦듻맒릳ꆱ뗄맦뚨;훐킡쇭튻샠맛뗣죏캪틸탐벷뛒쫇짌튵훜웚뗄ퟔ좻웳튵탨튪퓚첩슡뾪짨폐헋뮧,늢퓜폐튻뚨뗄믽쫽,뷡맻ꆣ헢샠쒣탍쫇믹폚탅쾢뗄벷뛒쒣탍(Jacklin닅쓜랽뇣뗘듓첩슡죚,듦뿮믽쫽뫍쿖뷰쇷닢움&Bhattacharya,1988),룃쒣탍틑퓚틽퇔샯쏨쫶쫇첩슡듻뿮뗄훘튪닎뾼틀뻝;춬쪱,뿍뮧뺭샭듻뿮맽,죏캪틸탐벷뛒횻폐튻룶룹풴ꆪꆪꆪ틸탐늻솼튵퓰죎훕짭훆붵뗍쇋틸탐쓚늿뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆,놣횤벨ꆣChari-Jagannathan(1988)뾼싇쇋튻룶폫D-쇋듻뿮훊솿,퇏룱뿘훆늻솼닺싊ꆣ첩슡벸뫵좫D쿠뷼뗄쒣탍,떫쫇럖컶쇋평틸탐튵벨늻병틽랢늿뗄듻뿮쫇떣놣듻뿮뛸럇탅폃듻뿮ꆣ헢벸쿮훆뛈뗄틸탐벷뛒ꆣGoldstein&Pauzner(2000)ꆢFrankel뒴탂듳듳붵뗍쇋듻뿮죋뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪ꆣ듓첩슡etal(2000)뫍Morris-Shin(2000)튲횤쏷쇋,떱ퟔ짭100%쏱펪살쮵,첩슡ퟶ듳ퟶ뻃뗄쒿뇪벤샸뒢뮧탐캪횻쫇쟡캢뗘틀삵폚퓫틴탅뫅쪱,뷶듦퓚뫍볠맜믺릹뗄죕뎣퇏쏜볠뚽쫇늻믡룸첩슡뺭펪짏튻룶뻹뫢,틸탐벷뛒뗄뿉쓜탔쫇평쓚짺뻶뚨뗄;뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪쇴폐폠뗘뗄,헢뗣튲뿉틔듓벷뛒Crockett(1997)죏캪,듓뫪맛뗄뷇뛈,ꆰ평폚뷰죚뫳솽쓪첩슡뗄뷸튻늽ힳ듳랢햹뗃떽퇩횤ꆣ닺볛룱뗄늻헽뎣늨뚯믲듳솿뗄뻞뛮햮컱벰웤닺믘맋뗚뛾늿럖뗄쏨쫶,첩슡벷뛒뗄떼믰쯷쫇뢺햮뷡릹뛱뮯쪹뗃틸탐퓚뫪맛뺭볃돥믷쿂벫캪든ꆰ췵뻻놻ꆱꆢꆰ돇쫐탅폃짧돶컊쳢ꆱ뗄뒫퇔ꆣ뒫퇔죵,늢뿉쓜퇏훘뗘펰쿬떽뫪맛뺭볃뗄헽뎣퓋탐ꆱ;틔뛯뒫뛯,뫜뿬뻍쓰돉쇋튻뎡럧늨ꆣ돶폚뛔ퟔ볒듦듓캢맛뷇뛈뾴,평폚듦퓚룷훖룷퇹뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆,뿮뗄떣탄뫍쿈떽쿈럾컱뗄풼쫸,뒢뮧퓚쎤쒿룺듓뗄뷰죚튵컱럇뎣죝틗돶쿖쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕쿖탄샭쟽뚯쿂럗럗볓죫쇋쳡뿮뗄뛓컩,듋쪱뒢뮧뛔뒫쿳:듻뿮죋뛔폚탅쾢헆컕뗄폅쫆,췹췹럇뎣쓑틔틖퇔쫇쓾뿉탅웤폐뛸늻탅웤컞,쪧좥쇋뛔쫂첬뗄샤뺲훆ꆰ믺믡훷틥ꆱ탐캪;뛸쟒,뷰죚ퟩ횯랢쿖평폚뷰에뛏,뫶싔쇋첩슡솼뫃뗄뺭펪튵벨ꆣ헢샯컊쳢뗄뫋죚튵뛔폚맺볒컈뚨뫍뺭볃붡뾵랢햹뗄훘튪탔,죧탄뻛붹떽췵뻻짭짏,췵뻻뗄뚯쿲잣뚯쇋첩슡뗄짱맻뷰죚믺릹돶쿖쇋캣믺,룷맺헾뢮뚼믡닉좡헽쪽뺭ꆣ췵뻹놾죋쫇첩슡뗄뒴쪼죋뫍듳막뚫,뛸쟒쫇첩믲럇헽쪽뗄쫖뛎,쿲쯼쳡릩뷰풮훺ꆣ슡뗄ퟜ뺭샭뫍뚭쫂뎤,첩슡뗄탅폾쾵폚쯻쫖훐ꆣ퓚21첩슡쫂볾럖컶훷맜맙풱뢯냜낸쟩냜슶,볍볬늿쏅뷴벱헙볻뗄쟩뿶48
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2005쓪뗚6웚ꆡ쿂,뒢뮧떱좻폐샭평닂틉췵뻹튲짦낸,듓뛸뛔첩슡닣듎뗄풭틲퓚폚뒫춳틸탐튵컱뗄듦뿮뫏풼뷡릹ꆣ탅폾닺짺뚯튡ꆣ뒢뮧뛔췵뻹룶죋뗄맘쟐,횻쫇틲캪듓듦뿮뫏풼횴탐뗄웚쿞뷡릹뫍풼쫸쳵볾뾴,듦뿮쯻짭쾵첩슡짹폾ꆣ쿔좻,죎뫎ퟣ틔틽랢뒢뮧뛔첩슡뫏춬폫듻뿮뫏춬뗄닮틬퓚죧쿂벸룶랽쏦:듦뿮뒢탅쓮욫틆뗄쫂볾뚼뿉쓜돉캪벷뛒뗄떼믰쯷ꆣ틲뛸뮧튻냣뿉틔쯦쪱쳡좡쿖뷰(벴쪹쫇뚨웚듦뿮뒢뮧쮵,첩슡벷뛒쫂볾퇩횤쇋,벴쪹쫇튻볒뺭펪ힴ뿶솼튲뿉틔쳡잰듓뷰죚믺릹쳡좡쿖뷰),뛸뷰죚믺릹뫃뗄뷰죚믺릹,춻랢뗄쯦믺쫂볾뚼뿉쓜떼훂튻뎡벷쳡잰싄탐듻뿮뫏춬,듓듻뿮죋쫕믘듻뿮좴럇뎣삧뛒럧늨,벴퇩횤쇋벷뛒쯦믺탔뗄볙쮵ꆣ떫쫇헽죧벷쓑;뚨웚뒢뮧쳡잰뛒쿖뗄샻쾢쯰쪧풶풶킡폚틸탐뛒퇐뺿쇭튻횧ꆰ믹놾쏦폫뺭볃훜웚ꆱ샭싛뗄엺움λϖ,닺뗄뛒쿖쯰쪧ꆣD-D쒣탍뗄럖컶쎻폐뾼싇:퓚틸탐뛔뒢뮧뗄ꆰ쿈쯤좻듦뿮뫏풼횴탐뗄웚쿞뷡릹뫍풼쫸쳵볾듦떽쿈럾컱ꆱ(sequentialservice)뗄풼쫸쿂,튻떩틸탐퓚닮틬,떫퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂,뒢뮧룹뻝ퟔ벺뗄쪱볤욫뗄뿉뛒뮻탔놻뒢뮧늿럖믲헟췪좫뮳틉,쫜떽볓ퟜ뗄뫃뫍춶믺믡ퟶ돶듦듻뗄뻶닟,쟒평폚뒢뮧쫽쒿늻좷뚨탔펰쿬,벷뛒뻹뫢쯹탨튪뗄췪좫탅쾢뗄ퟮ폅엓듳,웤듦듻뿮탨쟳퓚쪱볤짏펦룃쫇헽뎣럖늼뗄,쳵볾뻍늻뿉쓜쪵쿖(Wallace,1990;Green,Lin,틸탐폃컼쫕뗄듦뿮뫍떽웚쫕믘뗄듻뿮ퟣ틔싺ퟣ뒢2000)ꆣ탭뛠퇐뺿엺움,D-D(1983)샭싛뾪쪼훁뮧뗄뛒쿖튪쟳ꆣ뿉쫇튻떩뒢뮧죏캪틸탐뿉쓜돶쿖뷱,뚼쎻폐뫜뫃뗄퇐뺿살뷢쫍틸탐벷뛒쿖쿳(Peck벷뛒,헢훖탅쓮뻍쫇쓜ퟔ컒쪵쿖뗄:평폚틸탐쫇퓚andShell,2003)ꆣꆰ쿈살쿈럾컱ꆱ뗄맦퓲쿂쳡릩뛔듦뿮헟뢺햮뗄뛒컒쏇뗄샭싛쒣탍붫뷸튻늽탞헽D-D쒣탍뗄쿖,평폚듦뿮뫏풼횴탐뗄웚쿞뷡릹뫍풼쫸쳵볾뗄좱뗣,룹뻝Peck-Shell(2003)쒣탍:뒫춳틸탐튵닮틬탔,뿏뚨컞램뛒쿖쎿룶듦뿮헟뗄쳡뿮튪쟳,쓇컱뗄듦뿮뫏풼쫜떽쿖뷰쇷뚯탔ꆢ뎥뮹쓜솦ꆢ쿈떽쿈쎴뫳떽뗄듦뿮헟뻍믡쫜쯰쪧,뒢뮧뗄햼폅톡퓱떱럾컱뗄쿞훆,뒢뮧욫뫃뿉쓜쫜떽췢퓚튥퇔ꆢ죅뚯뫍좻쫇ퟮ뿬쯙뛈좥쳡뿮,폚쫇튻뎡벷뛒뻍랢짺쇋ꆣ뺭볃돥믷뗄펰쿬,컞싛(샻쾢)쫕죫쫇럱믡쫜떽쯰쿂컄춨맽뛔첩슡벷뛒잰뫳뗄듦듻뿮웚쿞뷡릹럖쪧,죎뫎뒢뮧뚼믡헹쿠듓뷰죚믺릹쳡좡쿖뷰ꆣ평컶,뛔짏쫶샭싛뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ평폚벷뛒랢짺뗄쪱볤폚뒢뮧쫜떽ퟔ컒쪵쪩탅쓮(self-fulfillingprophe2잰뫳늻맽죽쳬,쳖싛듻뿮뫏풼뗄틢틥늻듳,쯹틔헢cies)뿖믅뗄쟽뚯,죎뫎뗄쯦믺쫂볾뚼뿉쓜듙돉뷰샯컒쏇쳖싛웚쿞뷡릹뻍벯훐럖컶솽훖늻춬뗄듦뿮죚믺릹랢짺뗍킧싊뗄벷뛒ꆰ뫚ퟓ뻹뫢ꆱ(sunspote2뫏풼,벴믮웚듦뿮뫍뚨웚듦뿮ꆣquilibrium)ꆣP-S쒣탍뗄폅뗣쫇췘햹D-D쒣탍내헕짏쫶볙쮵,뿉틔폐솽룶췆싛:11벷뛒훐뛔폚ퟮ폅듦뿮뫏풼ꆢ틸탐벤샸볦죝쳵볾;뚨틥쇋잰뚨웚듦뿮복짙뇈샽펦킡폚믮웚듦뿮,뒢탮듦뿮복웚듦뿮늩?(predepositgame),늢틔듋ퟷ캪샽ퟓ살짙뗄뇈샽듳폚럇뒢탮듦뿮;21평폚폐맽벷뛒쫂볾쮵쏷췢퓚럇뎣킡뗄죅뚯(냼삨틸탐뗄뿉뛒뮻탔),뗄볍슼,벷뛒뫳,뒢탮듦뿮뗄뇈샽폐쯹쿂붵,뚨웚살뷢쫍랢짺벷뛒뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣλω듦뿮뛮퓚ퟜ듦뿮훐뗄뇈샽쿂붵ꆣ쯹틔룹뻝Peck-Shell(2003)쒣탍,컒쏇퓚ퟮ벷뛒뷰뗄뷡릹럖컶:벷뛒훐,첩슡듦뿮폠뛮폅뫏풼뗄뿲볜쿂,틀좻뿉틔뗃떽튻룶벷뛒뗄뻹뫢,릲쿂붵3172틚풪ꆣ틔살풴뷡릹럖:웳튵듦뿮쇷쪧D-D샭싛틀좻돉솢ꆣퟜ횮:돶쿖뫃뻹뫢뮹쫇벷0182틚풪,햼듦뿮폠뛮쿂붵뗄22%;룶쳥릤짌뮧뛒뻹뫢,좡뻶폚뺭볃훐뿉맛달떽뗄쯦믺뇤솿ꆣ쯦듦뿮쇷쪧1179틚풪,햼듦뿮폠뛮쿂붵뗄48%;뻓믺뇤솿뿉틔쫇틸탐뺭펪늻짆뗄탅뫅ꆢ웤쯻틸탐뗄쏱뒢탮듦뿮쇷쪧1111틚풪,햼뇈30%ꆣ틔듦뿮벷뛒ꆢ헾뢮헾닟뢺쏦뗄놨룦믲쫇첫퇴뫚ퟓꆣ쯦믺웚쿞럖:믮웚듦뿮쇷쪧2162틚풪,햼듦뿮폠뛮쿂뇤솿늻튻뚨쫇틸탐뺭펪뗄믹놾쟩뿶ꆣ뫃뻹뫢뫜든붵뗄70%;뚨웚듦뿮쇷쪧1110틚풪,햼듦뿮폠뛮죵,죎뫎룸뒢뮧벷뛒풤웚뗄죅뚯뚼믡떼훂벷뛒ꆣ쿂붵뗄30%(뇭죽랴펳벷뛒맽돌훐뗄쳡뿮쟩뿶)ꆣ뇈죧,맘폚췵뻻뗄뒫퇔뻍믡죃첩슡뺭샺튻뎡벷뛒웳튵믮웚듦뿮복짙뗄뇈샽(12%)듳폚웳튵뚨웚뗄뺪쿕ꆣ듦뿮복짙뗄뇈샽(15%);뛸뻓쏱뒢탮듦뿮샯,믮31듦뿮뫏풼뗄퇩횤웚듦뿮폫뚨웚듦뿮뗄뇈샽쿠뗈(43%뫍43%)ꆣ춻랢뗄쯦믺쫂볾뷶뷶쫇벷뛒뗄떼믰쯷,웤짮닮틬뫃쿱늢늻쿔훸ꆣ뾼싇떽첨훝슷쟅뗄쟸폲뺭볃49
닌믔쏷ꆢ믆ꆡ틣ꆢ헅쿾뮪:쯦믺탔뷰죚벷뛒뗄뫏풼럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽쳘헷ꆪꆪꆪ쏱펪뺭볃랢듯벰튵쫐뎡볓얩듥릤튵뮯뇭쯄첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧듦뿮뷡릹뇭뗄쒣쪽,짌튵뫍짌죋퓚뺭볃훐뻙ퟣ쟡훘,뛸짌죋뛔(9퓂30죕-12퓂31죕)떥캻:췲풪뷰뗄탨쟳놻룅삨캪ꆰ뛌ꆢ욵ꆢ뿬ꆱ,웤듦뿮샠탍룼룷샠듦쟣쿲폚믮웚ꆣ죧붫ꆰ룶쳥릤짌뮧듦뿮ꆱ맩죫믮웚듦뿮쿮쒿9퓂30죕12퓂31죕퓶복쫽뿮짏짽ퟜ짏짽듦뿮뇈샽햼뇈,퓲믮웚듦뿮복짙뗄뇈샽캪2919%,뛸뚨웚튻ꆢ웳튵듦뿮5411380130+260174840148듦뿮캪2519%ꆣ내뒢탮듦뿮폫럇뒢탮듦뿮살럖1.웳튵믮웚3213351089+189665929130샠,퓲복짙뇈샽럖뇰캪43%뫍25%ꆣ쫽뻝쿔좻횧ꋙ벯쳥웳튵2098437696+167128025176돖췆샭1ꆣ뛔폚웳튵듦뿮복짙뇈샽폫룶죋듦뿮복ꋚ맺폐릤짌1042912076+1647162156짙뇈샽횮볤뗄훘듳닮틬뿉쓜풭틲퓚폚웳튵뒢뮧춬ꋛ벯쳥ꆢ웤쯻7201317+597830198쪱튲쫇첩슡뗄듻뿮죋ꆣ틲캪퓚첩슡뗄ꆰ듦뿮믽2.떥캻뚨웚2198029041+70613211118럖ꆱ훆뗄벤샸쿂,뫜뛠웳튵쫇캪쇋듻뿮뛸듦뿮,헽뛾ꆢ룶쳥릤짌쫇헢룶풼쫸쳵볾뗄닮틬퓬돉뛔벷뛒뗄늻춬첬뛈ꆣ뮧듦뿮2389454519+3062512848168쿔좻죽ꆢ뻓쏱뒢탮,뇭쯄듓쇭튻룶닠쏦랴펳쇋평폚듦뿮뫏풼횴탐뗄웚쿞뷡릹뫍풼쫸쳵볾뗄닮틬탔,떼훂듦듦뿮1474020982+624242101841.믮웚뒢탮529311323+60301149164뿮죋뛔벷뛒뗄랴펦탐캪짏늻춬ꆣ2.뚨웚뒢탮94479659+21221120뛔뇭죽ꆢ쯄훐뗄룷쿮뷸탐볆쯣뗃떽:벷뛒잰ퟜ볆92747155631+6288468100100(9퓂13죕),뒢탮듦뿮햼ퟜ듦뿮뗄1919%,뎤웚ꆡꆡ쇏살풴:첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧2001쓪닆컱놨룦ꆣ듦뿮햼ퟜ듦뿮뗄3216%;벷뛒뫳(12퓂31죕),뒢탮듦뿮햼ퟜ듦뿮뗄1315%,뎤웚듦뿮햼ퟜ듦뿮뗄쫇틸탐벷뛒뗄룹풴ꆣ첩슡뗄낸샽룦쯟컒쏇:평폚2417%ꆣ돤럖퇩횤쇋췆샭2ꆣ뒫춳뷰죚듦듻튵컱ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ뗄쳘탔,췢늿뮷뺳ꆡ뇭죽ꆰ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧ꆱ듦뿮뷡릹뇭뗄튻룶쯦믺죅뚯,뻍폐뿉쓜틽랢뒢뮧뛔뷰죚믺릹(9퓂13죕-9퓂30죕)떥캻:췲풪뗄뎥뢶쓜솦뗄뮳틉,죧맻뷰죚믺릹뗄쿖뷰횧뢶폐룷훖샠삧쓑,뻍럇뎣죝틗퓬돉ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ캣믺ꆣ튻떩돶쿖듦뿮쿮쒿9퓂13죕퓂ퟜ쿂뗸30죕퓶복쫽듦뿮쿂(벷뛒잰9)ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ캣믺,컒쏇믡폐쓄킩뷢뻶뗄춾뺶?컒쏇붫뗸뇈샽뇈샽튻ꆢ웳튵듦뿮듓첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽돶랢,캧죆ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ6221154113-809813211781.웳튵믮웚쳘헷쳖싛뛈맽ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ캣믺뗄룷훖춾뺶벰웤샻뇗ꆣ3643932133-43061211158ꋙ벯쳥웳튵2417820984-3194138159쯄ꆢ뷢뻶ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ캣믺뗄룷훖춾뺶λξꋚ맺폐릤짌1092210429-49351133퓚첩슡벷뛒쫂볾샯,첨훝쫐헾뢮뗄뒦샭쫇맻ꋛ벯쳥ꆢ웤쯻1339720-619461166뛏ꆢ폐킧뗄ꆣ췆맣살쮵,본폚틸탐쇷뚯탔뒴퓬쫇틸2.떥캻뚨웚2577221980-37921510120탐틗폚랢짺벷뛒뗄훷튪풭틲,퓚ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ쓚퓚뛾ꆢ룶쳥릤짌뮧듦뿮4181623894-179224348122뗄웚쿞쎬뛜컞램룹놾쿻돽뗄잰쳡쿂,럀횹뫍ퟨ횹죽ꆢ뻓쏱뒢탮틸탐벷뛒뗄틑폐낲업뚼쫇춨맽헒떽쇷뚯탔뗄뫳놸듦뿮2589214740-111524330100살풴뛸웰ퟷ폃뗄,벴떱쳡뿮쫽쒿첫룟쪱뿉틔쪹폃1.믮웚뒢탮92555293-39624310166뫳놸살풴,뮺뷢ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ쓚퓚쎬뛜듸살뗄톹2.뚨웚뒢탮166379447-71904319134솦ꆣ튻떩쇷뚯탔뗄뫳놸살풴떽캻쇋,뇈죧첨훝쫐ퟜ볆12991992747-3717229100100헾뢮뗷뚯뗄뻈벱뷰낲좫쯍듯첩슡,쿲틸탐벷뛒ꆡꆡ춨맽퇐뺿ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ잰뫳듦뿮뇤뚯뇈샽,컒쏇퇩뗄벤샸뻍믡놻쿻돽믲헟복쟡,듦뿮죋뛔틸탐뗄탅횤쇋평볙짨뛾뗃돶뗄솽룶췆샭,틲듋뿉틔죏캪뫏탄쓜뗃떽쳡룟ꆣ쇷뚯탔뫳놸살풴쓜릻랢믓뗄ퟷ폃풼뗄웚쿞펰쿬떽벷뛒맽돌늻춬뫏풼뗄뇭쿖ꆣ뿉틔좡뻶폚웤뿉탅탔뫍돐떱틥컱뗄돌뛈ꆣ틲캪퓚뫃뗄뗃돶뷡싛:뒫춳뷰죚닺욷뗄ꆰ듦듻뫏풼ꆱ쳘헷,쪹뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂틸탐튲쓜릻뒴퓬돶쇷뚯탔,틲듋쮵,쇷뗃뷰죚튵놾훊짏뻍뻟폐쓚퓚늻컈뚨탔뫍든죵탔,뚯탔뗄뫳놸살풴쫇춨맽쿻돽뮵뗄뻹뫢뛸놣쇴뫃뗄50
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2005쓪뗚6웚ꆡ뻹뫢살놣횤틸탐쏢퓢믲헟낲좻뛈맽벷뛒횮퓖뗄ꆣ뿮헟뗄샻틦,쯼튪쟳틸탐뢶룸듦뿮놣쿕릫쮾튻뚨뎣볻뗄뫳놸살풴폐:헾뢮뻈훺,돤떱ퟮ뫳듻뿮죋뷇뗄럑폃,떱룃틸탐떹뇕쪱,평듦뿮놣쿕릫쮾횧뢶룸즫;헾뢮쳡릩듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈;틸탐뗄뎬뛮ힼ놸뷰믲듦뿮죋튻뚨쫽뛮뗄늹뎥ꆣ듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈캪틸탐뒴럇쇷뚯탔닺뗄뇤쿖;뷰죚뒴탂뫍훐볤튵컱뗄랢퓬쇋튻훖폐킧뗄쫐뎡췋돶믺훆,폐훺폚놣뮤듦뿮햹뛔듦듻튵컱쫇폐틦뗄늹돤ꆣ떱좻,퓚뫳놸살풴헟뗄샻틦;뛸쟒폐샻폚맦뇜틸탐랢짺탅폃캣믺뫍뗄헢벸훖커웷쪧킧쪱,뮹뿉틔폐뗄냬램쫇훕횹틸웆닺떹뇕,놣돖뷰죚쳥쾵뗄컈뚨ꆣ놾컄뗚죽늿럖탐듦뿮떽쿖뷰믵뇒뗄뿉뛒뮻탔ꆣ쿂쏦,컒쏇뷡뫏뗄럖컶뇭쏷:럀횹틸탐벷뛒럧쿕싻퇓뗄맘볼쫇볓첩슡쫂볾살쿪쾸쳖싛짏쫶벸훖벷뛒뗄뻈훺랽램벰잿듦뿮죋뛔틸탐싄풼뗄탅탄,뛸듦뿮놣쿕헢튻볠웤샻뇗ꆣ맜릤뻟잡잡뿉틔쳡룟듦뿮죋뛔틸탐쳥쾵뗄탅죎1.헾뢮뻈훺(GovernmentBλψailout)뛈,컞틉붫폐훺폚틸탐벷뛒컊쳢뗄뷢뻶ꆣ떫쫇,듦퓚벷뛒믲횧뢶캣믺랢짺쪱,헾뢮뾼싇뗄쫂쟩뿮놣쿕훆뛈쪵쪩뫳좴닺짺쇋탭뛠뢺쏦펰쿬,냼삨쫇:쫇럱뻈훺뫍죧뫎살뻈훺ꆣ쒿잰,춨맽뛔훐맺뷰뗀뗂럧쿕뫍쓦쿲톡퓱솽듳랽쏦:듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈쯹죚쫐뎡훐랢짺뗄벷뛒쫂볾뗄퇐뺿,컒쏇랢쿖,헾뢮틽랢뗄뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢닺짺폚만뚨놣럑럑싊ꆣ튻떩믡룹뻝뷰죚믺릹뗄닺훊솿뫍뺭펪튵벨,뻶뚨쫇헢훖ꆰ뇢욽(Flat)ꆱ뗄듦뿮놣쿕뚨볛닟싔놻좡쿻,럱퓊탭놻벷뛒뗄뷰죚믺릹볌탸듓쫂뷰죚믮뚯ꆣ컒뗀뗂럧쿕컊쳢튲뻍쪧좥쇋듦퓚뗄췁죀ꆣ좻뛸,쒿쏇횪뗀,퓚첨훝슷쟅뗄ꆰ벷뛒ꆱ캣믺훐,헾뢮뛔폚잰폐쓜솦늻닉폃만뚨놣럑럑싊뗄맺볒뫜짙,쏀맺늻춬뺭펪ힴ뿶뗄뷰죚믺릹닉좡쇋늻춬뗄듫쪩ꆣ뛔튲쫇횱떽1991쓪12퓂닅좡쿻쇋헢튻닟싔,훆뚨폚첩슡닉좡쇋뷰풮훺뫍웤쯼룷훖뢨훺듫쪩;뛔튻룶틔럧쿕캪믹뒡뗄듦뿮놣쿕놣럑뷉쓉훆뛈ꆣ틽폚뺭펪ힴ뿶뛱쇓뗄탅듯돇쫐탅폃짧닉좡쇋맘뇕헻죫듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈뫳,평폚틸탐춶놣죋뇈놣쿕릫쮾뛙뗄랽쪽ꆣ퓚훐맺뷰죚튵뗄랢햹맽돌훐,컒쏇튲룼쟥돾ퟔ벺뗄럧쿕ힴ뿶,쯹틔랲춶놣뗄뷔쫴ퟮ듳랢쿖:1996쓪10퓂훐맺틸탐맺볊탅췐춶릫쮾럧쿕킯듸헟,뛸럧쿕뷏짙뗄틸탐퓲늻풸닎볓놣쿕,놻맘뇕틔살,훐맺얩듥탅췐춶릫쮾ꆢ몣쓏랢햹틸폚쫇틽랢쇋쓦쿲톡퓱컊쳢ꆣ탐ꆢ훐맺탂벼쫵뒴튵벼쫵릫쮾놻쿠볌쟥엌ꆣ1998룃죧뫎뷢뻶쓦쿲톡퓱컊쳢쓘?웕뇩뗄맛뗣죏쓪10퓂6죕,훐맺뗚뛾듳몣췢죚뒰뿚맣뚫맺볊캪,횻튪쓜룹뻝틸탐럧쿕뗄쮮욽헽좷훆뚨놣럑럑탅췐춶릫쮾틲랢짺횧뢶캣믺놻죋쏱틸탐ퟜ탐맘싊,쓇쎴쓦쿲톡퓱벴쪹늻쫇떴좻컞듦,훁짙튲믡듳뇕ꆣꆰ닺훊솿ꆱ뫍ꆰ뺭펪튵벨ꆱ돉캪헾뢮뻶닟쫇듳붵뗍ꆣ쓇쎴쓜릻캪듦뿮놣쿕릫헽뚨볛싰?샭싛럱뻈훺뗄훷튪뫢솿횸뇪,닺훊솿뫃뗄뷰죚믺릹뷧햹뾪쇋벤쇒뗄쳖싛ꆣ평폚떽쒿잰캪횹,샭싛뷧헾뢮췹췹닉좡뻈훺듫쪩,랴횮뻍쫇맘뇕ꆣ뮹캴쓜헒떽뫏쫊뗄듦뿮놣쿕뚨볛랽낸,틲듋뗀뗂헾뢮뻈훺튻냣닉좡뷰힢죫뗄랽쪽뷢뻶캣럧쿕뫍쓦쿲톡퓱뗄컊쳢췹췹뎬맽쇋듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈믺λζ,뷰살풴뿉틔쫇닆헾뷰,튲뿉틔쫇듦뿮ힼ뗄헽쏦킧펦ꆣ헢튻뚨돌뛈짏뷢쫍쇋쿔탔뗄듦뿮놣놸뷰ꆣ퓚첩슡뗄벷뛒쫂볾훐,뗷죫뗄뷰뻍폐닆쿕훆뛈퓚쫀뷧짏늢늻웕뇩뗄풭틲ꆣ헾듦뿮죫뫍죋쏱틸탐엺ힼ뚯폃좫뛮ힼ놸뷰ꆣ헾듓뫏풼뗄뷇뛈,컒쏇랢쿖ꆰ듦뿮놣쿕ꆱ만좻뿉뢮퓋폃닆헾뷰,듓헷쮰좨훐믱좡쇷뚯탔,뎥뢶뒢틔복킡듦뿮죋벷뛒뗄벤샸,떫쫇틀좻컞램뷢뻶ꆱ듦뮧듦뿮ꆣꆰ릫릲닆헾ꆱ훐뗄뷰뗄듳늿럖살ퟔ쓉듻뫏풼ꆱ횮볤뗄쓚퓚쎬뛜ꆣ뛸쟒,튻떩쪵탐ꆰ듦뿮놣쮰죋뗄쮰뷰,닆헾뷰뗄폃춾폐쿞뛸쟒췹췹폐쿕ꆱ훆뛈,믡퓶볓뺭펪헟뗄ꆰ뗀뗂럧쿕ꆱ뫍믺믡훷틥ꆰ솢램ꆱ만뚨폃춾ꆣ죧맻돶쿖룼듳뗄뷰좱뿚믲탐캪ꆣ튻랽쏦,붵뗍뒢뮧쫂잰뛔듦뿮낲좫뗄맘탄;헟틸탐쾵춳쓚뗄뿖믅,닆헾뷰쫇럱뿉틔쏖늹?쇭튻랽쏦,뷰죚믺릹믡룼뛠뗘듓쫂룟럧쿕뗄듻뿮튵(쿄뗂죊ꆢ헅웦,1999)듓뫏풼뗄뷇뛈뾴,춨맽맺볒컱,퓶잿쇋뷰죚믺릹믘쫕듻뿮뗄삧쓑탔ꆣ쳥쿖퓚뗄닆헾뷰힢죫늢늻쓜뷢뻶ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ놾훊짏ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ짏뻍쫇믘쫕뫍횧뢶쿖뷰뗄헛훔뗄쎬뛜뫍뒫춳뷰죚튵컱뗄ꆰ든죵탔ꆱꆣ(Tradeoff),뫏풼횴탐쪱볤뫍쿖뷰횧뢶쓜솦뗄헛훔ꆣ2.듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈(DepositInsurance)3.틸탐뎬뛮ힼ놸뷰믲닺뇤쿖(BankPortfo2듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈짨솢뗄믹놾ퟚ횼쫇놣뮤훐킡듦lio)51
닌믔쏷ꆢ믆ꆡ틣ꆢ헅쿾뮪:쯦믺탔뷰죚벷뛒뗄뫏풼럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄낸샽퓚펦뢶쟥뎥솦캣믺쪱,틸탐폐ퟅퟔ볒뗄솽뗀뻍뿉틔쪹폃ꆰ훐볤튵컱ꆱ뗄펪튵쫕죫횧뢶뒢뮧뛔럀쿟:튻뗀럀쿟쫇퓋폃뎬뛮ힼ놸뷰ꆣ뎬뛮ힼ놸뷰듦뿮뗄튪쟳ꆣ뷰죚믺릹뿉샻폃ꆰ훐볤튵컱ꆱ뗄뫏뗄쫽뛮뷏짙,뻍쓑틔쏖늹틸탐뻞듳뗄횧뢶좱뿚;쇭풼쫕죫,볤뷓뷢뻶ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ뗄쓚퓚쎬뛜ꆣ튻뗀럀쿟쫇틸탐쯹돖폐뗄뇤쿖쓜솦뷏잿뗄폐볛횤짏쏦쳡벰뗄뻈훺춾뺶뚼쫇돐죏ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ좯,벴뛾벶ힼ놸뷰ꆣ떱좻,첩슡뗄벷뛒쫂볾펦룃쮵쓚퓚뗄웚쿞쎬뛜컞램뷢뻶ꆣ죧맻웚췻룹놾짏뷢뻶쫇튻듎듦뿮죋뗄럇샭탔탐캪,쫂볾살쪱쏍쇒,퓚헾헢룶쎬뛜,캨폐뗄냬램쫇틸탐늻퓙쫇틸탐,뇈죧뢮뻈훺뒦샭췗떱뗄쟩뿶쿂,쫂볾뷡쫸튲뿬ꆣ쯹틔,ꆰ냙럖횮냙뒢놸뗄틸탐ꆱ,헢퇹뗄틸탐뻍늻쓜퓙뒴닺뇤쿖뗄럀쿟뛔폚첩슡뮹쫇쎻뇘튪뚯폃뗄,튲퓬쇷뚯탔ꆣ샠쯆뗄믺릹쫇쳡릩횧욱듦뿮쳘뇰폅듽살늻벰뚯폃ꆣ뗄쏀맺믵뇒쫐뎡뮥훺믹뷰,쯻쏇돖폐뗄닺쫇쇷쓇킩좱짙헾뢮놣뮤뗄틸탐퓚쏦쇙돥믷쪱,췹뚯뗄,늢늻뒴퓬쇷뚯탔ꆣ틲캪뮥훺믹뷰ퟜ폐닺췹믡십짏뗷헻닺ퟩ뫏(portfolio)틔붵뗍닺럧살싺ퟣ좡뿮튪쟳,뛸쟒룷룶믹뷰듦뿮헟늢늻맘탄쿕ꆣ헢뿉쓜떼훂탅폃뇀삣,떫쫇늻믡쪹틸탐뇀삣ꆣ웤쯻듦뿮헟쫇럱ힼ놸쳡뿮,틲듋,믵뇒쫐뎡뮥훺믹Calomiris횤쏷헢쪱쯼믡폐뫜잿뗄벤샸좥복짙듻뷰늻믡퓢폶벷뛒,짙볻뗄벸듎벷뛒뮹쫇틲캪쫐뎡뿮,복짙럖뫬,붵뗍웆닺뗄럧쿕,쪹횮놣돖퓚튻룶뚨볛듭컳퓬돉뗄,뛸럇쇷뚯탔뗄풵맊퓬돉뗄ꆣ뗍쮮욽짏(Calomiris,1993)ꆣ쯻랢쿖,떱틸탐튵놻퓊탭짨솢듳맦쒣뗄뺭펪췸뗣(쯕룱삼뗄ퟔ평틸탐컥ꆢ뷡ꆡ싛쪱듺),늢놻퓊탭ퟔ랢붨솢릲춬놣쿕훆뛈뫍폫웤놾컄춨맽뛔닺좨쏷컺,뺭펪벨킧폅솼뗄첩슡쯻틸탐릲춬붨솢웤쯼샠탍뗄뫏ퟷ탔훆뛈낲업쪱,돇쫐탅폃짧벷뛒낸샽뗄퇐뺿,쳖싛벷뛒랢짺뗄풭뇈죧ꆰ죸싞럲ꆱ틸탐훆뛈(SuffolkSystem),틸탐벷틲ꆣ퓚DiamondandDybvig(1983)뫍Peckand뛒뗄럧쿕쓜뗃떽듳럹뛈뗄붵뗍(틽ퟔ:쿄뗂죊ꆢShell(2003)뗄쒣탍믹뒡짏컒쏇랢쿖:뒫춳틸탐튵헅웦,1999)ꆣ뛔폚쏀맺1837쓪뗄뷰죚벷뛒캣믺컱뗄듦뿮뫏풼쫜떽쿖뷰쇷뚯탔ꆢ뎥뮹쓜솦ꆢ쿈떽쿈뗄맛달,퇐뺿랢쿖ꆰ죸싞럲ꆱ훆뛈(SuffolkSystem)럾컱뗄쿞훆,뒢뮧욫뫃뿉쓜쫜떽췢퓚튥퇔ꆢ죅뚯뫍뗄틸탐볤뗄쿠뮥풮훺,뿉틔럀횹뫍ퟨ횹탭뛠뿖믅뺭볃돥믷뗄펰쿬,컞싛(샻쾢)쫕죫쫇럱믡쫜떽쯰(Rolnick,SmithandWeber,2000)ꆣ쪧,죎뫎뒢뮧뚼믡헹쿠듓뷰죚믺릹쳡좡쿖뷰ꆣ첩4.뷰죚뒴탂믲훐볤튵컱(FinancialInnova2슡돇쫐탅폃짧벷뛒낸샽뮹룦쯟컒쏇,뒫춳틸탐튵tion)컱뗄뫏풼뷡릹뫍풼쫸쳵볾뗄쳘쫢탔쫇벷뛒뗄룹풴뷰죚뒴탂믲훐볤튵컱뗄쫕틦뿉틔쫇틸탐쇷뚯(Zhou,Huang,2002)ꆣ탔뗄폖튻뫳놸살풴ꆣ춨맽뛔맺볊뷰죚튵랢햹뗄샺놾컄뮹쳖싛쇋뷢뻶벷뛒쫂볾뗄벸훖춾뺶뗄뿉쪷쟷쫆,컒쏇랢쿖,랢듯맺볒틸탐뗄듦듻튵컱뛔폚탐탔뫍폐킧탔ꆣ컒쏇죏캪:만뚨놣싊ꆢ헾뢮뛀뗄뺭볃뗄훘튪탔돊쿖뻸뛔쿂붵뗄쟷쫆(Rajan,ꆰ듦뿮놣쿕훆뛈ꆱ늻뿉쓜듓룹놾짏뷢뻶벷뛒컊쳢ꆣ1998)ꆣ풭살뗄뒫춳듦듻뿮튵컱듳듳뗘캮쯵,듳룅뷰죚믺릹뗄맦쒣삩듳틀좻컞램뷢뻶벷뛒쫂볾뗄랢퓚쏀맺쿂붵쇋25ꆫ30%ꆣ쿠랴,틔쫕좡럾컱럑캪짺,짵훁믡돶쿖럧쿕뗄뒫뗝뫍룼볓퇏훘뗄벷뛒쯰훷뗄훐볤튵컱돉뎤쯙뛈뫜뿬ꆣ튻떩틸탐돶쿖쇋벷쪧ꆣ뷰죚믺릹춨맽삩듳맦쒣살쳡룟횧뢶쓜솦,튻뛒뗄캣믺,뻍뿉틔폃훐볤튵컱뗄쫕틦살뗖쿻뛔쿖떩돶쿖벷뛒쫂볾,뷰죚믺릹뿉틔듓룷훖럖횧믺릹뷰뗄쇷쪧뫍탨쟳ꆣ훐볤튵컱뗄뫏풼쎻폐횧뢶쿖뷰뗷뚯뷰,횧풮놻벷뛒뗄췸뗣ꆣ떫쫇,삩듳맦쒣죔뗄튪쟳ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂,듳늿럖ꆰ훐볤튵컱ꆱ뫏풼좻컞램뷢뻶ꆰ듦뿮뫏풼ꆱ뗄쓚퓚쎬뛜ꆣ뺭펪맦쒣쫇:뷰죚믺릹뫍맋뿍횮볤잩뚩튻룶쳡릩ꆰ뷰죚럾뗄삩듳,뿉쓜믡퓬돉벷뛒뗄싻퇓ꆣ뷰죚믺릹쯹폐컱ꆱꆢ쫕좡ꆰ럾컱럑ꆱ뗄뫏풼(웤쪵쫇훖럾컱쫕럑)ꆣ뗄췸뗣뫍럖횧믺릹,춬쪱믲헟솬탸랢짺벷뛒쫂볾ꆣ헢훖뷢뻶춾뺶,쯤좻컞램뷢뻶뒫춳뷰죚튵컱ꆰ듦헢퇹,맦쒣풽듳,쯰쪧뻍풽듳,뷢뻶벷뛒캣믺뻍풽뿮뫏풼ꆱ뗄쓚퓚쎬뛜,떫쫇뷰죚믺릹춨맽삩듳ꆰ훐삧쓑ꆣ볤튵컱ꆱ,뿉틔퓶볓뷰죚믺릹닺훐뗄컞럧쿕컒쏇붨틩,뷢뻶벷뛒캣믺뗄폐킧춾뺶폐:룷훖뷰,ퟷ캪쇷뚯탔뗄뫳놸살풴ꆣ튻떩돶쿖벷뛒쿖쿳,뷰죚뒴탂ꆢ훐볤튵컱뗄뾪랢뫍뺭펪믮뚯틔벰ꆰ죸52
ꆡ헣붭짧믡뿆톧2005쓪뗚6웚ꆡ싞럲ꆱ틸탐쳥훆ꆣퟔ랢붨솢릲춬놣쿕훆뛈뫍폫웤ꋞ룷쿮듦뿮ퟜ뛮냼삨뛌웚듦뿮ꆢ뛌웚뒢탮듦뿮ꆢ펦뷢쯻틸탐릲춬붨솢웤쯼샠탍뗄뫏ퟷ탔훆뛈ꆢ랢햹쫕믣뿮벰쇙쪱듦뿮ꆢ듦죫뛌웚놣횤뷰ꆢ뎤웚듦뿮ꆢ뎤웚뒢탮좡럾컱럑캪훷뗄훐볤튵컱,쯤좻컞램듓룹놾짏뷢듦뿮뫍듦죫뎤웚놣횤뷰ꆣꋟ듻뿮ퟜ뛮냼삨뛌웚듻뿮ꆢ뷸돶뿚톺믣ꆢ쳹쿖ꆢ훐뎤뻶ꆰ듦듻뫏풼ꆱ뗄쓚퓚쎬뛜,떫쫇튻떩틸탐돶쿖벷웚듻뿮ꆢ폢웚듻뿮ꆢ듴훍듻뿮뫍듴헊듻뿮ꆣ뛒캣믺ꋠ룷쿮듦뿮ퟜ뛮냼삨뛌웚듦뿮ꆢ뛌웚뒢탮듦뿮ꆢ펦뷢,뻍뿉폃틸탐솪쏋ퟩ횯풮훺틔벰훐볤튵컱뗄쫕틦살싺ퟣ탨쟳ꆣ믣뿮벰쇙쪱듦뿮ꆢ듦죫뛌웚놣횤뷰ꆢ뎤웚듦뿮ꆢ뎤웚뒢탮듦뿮뫍듦죫뎤웚놣횤뷰ꆣ쯤좻첩슡탅폃짧탅듻튵벨솼뫃ꆢ럧쿕뿘훆퇏ꋡ듻뿮ퟜ뛮냼삨뛌웚듻뿮ꆢ뷸돶뿚톺믣ꆢ쳹쿖ꆢ훐뎤룱ꆢ뺭펪벨킧폅솼ꆢ닺훊솿맽펲,떫쫇튲랢짺쇋웚듻뿮ꆢ폢웚듻뿮ꆢ듴훍듻뿮뫍듴헊듻뿮ꆣ벷뛒뗄캣믺ꆣ죧맻죏헦뗘퇐뺿첩슡탅폃짧뺭펪뫍ꋢ벷뛒뗄쪵횤퇐뺿튻횱쎻폐뗃떽뫜뫃뗄랢햹,훷튪랢햹뗄뺭퇩풭틲퓚폚좱랦캢맛쫽뻝ꆣ쪵퇩뺭볃톧랽램뗄틽죫,췆뚯,뛔뇈맺폐짌튵틸탐뗄뺭펪튵벨뫍훎쇋벷뛒퇐뺿뗄랢햹ꆣ샽죧:Corbae,Duffy(2002),틔벰샭뷡릹,컒쏇늻쓑랢쿖ꆰ맺볒탅폃ꆱ뫍ꆰ닺좨쳘탔ꆱSchotter,Yorulmazer(2003)쪹폃뚯첬쒣탍뗄쪵퇩뺭볃톧횮볤쯆뫵컞램욽뫢뗄쎬뛜ꆣ뛔폚헢룶컊쳢,놾컄퇐뺿ꆣ쎻폐짮죫뗘퇐뺿뫍ퟐ쾸뗘췆쟃ꆣ떱좻,훐맺뷰죚λϖ닎볻:Gorton(1988);AllenandGale(1998),Schu2macher(2000)ꆣ쫐뎡뫍뷰죚룄룯뗄랢햹탨튪첩슡탅폃짧돉릦뗄뺭λω뻟쳥뗄췆떼,횤쏷뫍닎쫽맀볆쟫닎볻Peck-Shell퇩랢뇭퓚Journalofpoliticaleconomy(2003,vol1111)뗄풭컄ꆣ;춬쪱컒쏇컞램믘뇜,쫜떽쫐뎡췢퓚죅뚯뫍늻좷뚨탔틲쯘뗄펰쿬,뷰죚쫐뎡믡돶쿖뗄벷뛒캣믺ꆣλξ퇮죧퇥뷌쫚퓚움싛훐쳡떽,놾낸샽퇐뺿ퟛ뫏펦폃첩슡탅폃짧돉릦뗘뛉맽쇋벷뛒뗄캣믺,쳡룟쇋ퟔ쇋뷰죚럖컶램뫍뺭볃럖컶램뗄솽훖뿲볜,틅몶뗄쫇,뷢뻶벷뛒뗄춾뺶캴쓜횱뷓듓잰쏦뗄쒣탍췆떼돶살ꆣퟷ헟죏캪짭뗄맜샭쓜솦;첨훝쫐헾뢮ꆰ쫐뎡뮯ꆱ뗄캣믺뒦샭퇮뷌쫚뗄움싛뫜떽캻,횻쫇컒쏇쾣췻룼좫쏦뗘듓헢듎벷쓜솦뫍룟킧싊뗄뻶닟랴펦쓜솦,잡잡쮵쏷쇋훐뷰뛒훐톰헒떽룼뛠폐틢틥뗄컊쳢,틲듋뻍쎻램솽좫웤쏀쇋ꆣ죚쫐뎡훐뗘랽헾뢮맜샭쓜솦뗄돉쫬뫍랢햹ꆣ헽죧λψ쪷뷺뒨뷌쫚퓚움싛훐죏캪벷뛒뗄랢짺뫍맘볼쫇,뇘탫뷨훺폚헾뢮뗄탅폃,솽룶맽돌뚼볤뷓폐쇋헾뢮뗄탅맾튮뿋퓸뺭룦쯟컒쏇:죎뫎룄룯헾닟뚼쫇쮼쿫뗄폃ꆣ쟸뎤놻,춨맽쒳쳵춾뺶쪹뗃헾뢮뗄탅폃퓚첩슡뗄쎰쿕ꆣ훐맺룄룯뾪럅뛾쪮뛠쓪돉릦뗄뺭퇩튲퓚폚뺭펪훐놻냾샫쇋ꆣ샏냙탕ퟮ맘탄뗄탅뫅쫇헾뢮횧돖늻횧듋ꆣ룄룯쮼쿫쪵퇩폫첩슡탅폃짧쪵볹뗄뺭퇩돖ꆣ헾뢮뻈훺벷뛒,헾뢮뗄탅폃뻍폖믘좥쇋ꆣ,뇘λζ쟫닎볻:ꆰLiquidity,efficientandbankbailoutsꆱ붫캪훐맺뷰죚룄룯쳡릩튻쳵탂뗄랢햹랽쿲ꆣ(GaryGortonandLixinHuang,2002)ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:힢쫍,Franklin,JunQian,andMeijunQian,Law,:ꋙ뷰죚훐뷩춨맽럖즢햮컱럧쿕뫍룄뇤햮좨햮컱웚쿞Finance,andEconomicGrowthinChina,UniversityofPenn2뷡릹쪹횮뛔뒢뮧뫍뷨뿮죋폐컼틽솦,듓뛸쳡룟뒢탮벤샸sylvaniamimeo,2002.,룄짆탅듻쳵볾ꆣ퓚샭싛짏붲,뷰죚훐뷩쓜닺짺솽랽쏦뗄,FranklinandGale,Douglas,ComparingFi2쫕틦nancialSystems,Cambridge,MA:MITPress,1999.,벴뒢탮퓶볓뫍쪹뒢탮퓚짺닺짏룼폐킧뗘럖엤ꆣꋚ놾컄퇘폃FranklinAllen(2002)맘폚ꆰ훐맺뷰죚,램-KuntandEnricaDetragiache,Does싉뫍뺭볃퓶뎤ꆱ뗄퇐뺿,쯻냑ꆰ럇헽맦뷰죚ꆱ(DepositInsuranceIncreaseBankingSystemStability?AnEm2informalfi2nancingsector)뚨틥캪돽맺폐늿쏅횮췢뗄뷰죚늿쏅뫍죚piricalInvestigation,WorldBankConferencepaper,Deposit쟾뗀InsuranceConference(June2000).;뺡맜폐킩죚랽쪽컞램뗃떽램싉뗄폐킧놣뮤ꆣꋛ떽2001쓪6퓂뗗,첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗄듦뿮폠뛮듯,.,Gorton,G.,Theoriginsofbank21418틚풪,듻뿮폠뛮913틚풪,늻솼듻뿮싊뷶캪219%ꆣingpanics:models,facts,andbankregulation,in:Hub2첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧1997ꆢ1998쓪솬탸솽쓪좫쏦췪돉닺뢺bard,.(Eds.),FinancialMarketsandFinancialCri2햮뇈샽맜샭11쿮횸뇪,쏻쇐좫맺돇탅짧쾵춳잰쎩ꆣ뛔폚ses,TheUniversityofChicagoPress,1991.첩슡돇쫐탅폃짧뗈쏱펪뷰죚믺릹뗄퇐뺿,닎볻:쪷뷺뒨,,TheEconomics(1997,1998,2001)ꆢ탬뗡쟬(2000)뗈뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷ,놾컄뻍ofMoneyandBanking,NewYork:Harper&RowPress,늻죟퇔쇋ꆣ1977.ꋜ닎볻:Freixas,X1,Rochet,J1(1997);,.,,BankingPanics,In2Gale(1999);Ennis(2003)뗄ퟛ쫶컄쿗ꆣformationandRationalExpectationsEquilibrium,Jounalofꋝ튻냣뛸퇔,듦뿮뫏춬풼뚨뗄샻쾢싊룟폚ꆰ뚨웚듦Finance43:749-761,1988.뿮ꆱ뫏춬;ꆰ믮웚듦뿮ꆱ뫏춬풼뚨뒢뮧쎻폐믲헟폐뫜짙뗄샻ꢹ?-Kunt,AsliandLevine,Ross,Financial쾢쫕죫,짵훁폐킩ꆰ믮웚듦뿮ꆱ뫏춬뮹맦뚨뒢뮧튪쿲뷰죚StructuresAcrossCountries:StylizedFacts,Washington,D.믺릹횧뢶럑폃ꆣC.:WorldBankPolicyResearchWorkingPaper2143,53
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