ഈݚ൧ं֥ᇾᅍཨٮඣބֹٜؓӁ൧ӆໃট֥ყ௹ -----oഈݚ൧ंᇾᅍཨٮpࡅ๖ೆטҰБۡčࢫ࿊Ď ೋׅ௴ঘ-گ֊oഈݚ൧ंᇾᅍཨٮp৳ކטज़ีቆ 2004୍12ᄅ 2004୍11ᄅᇏഈ࿗đೋׅ௴ঘն࿐(Uppsala University)ֹٜӁაӬ൧࣮෮֥ӧࢭѰൖაگ֊ն࿐Ӭ൧ࣜ࠶࣮෮aگ֊ն࿐ߌࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏ֩ֆ໊܋ކቔđ৳ކࣉྛਔၛഈݚ൧ंܓٜ࿊ᄴொݺູᇶี֥ࡅ๖ೆטҰࠃbૌטज़ี֥ᇶေԛؿׄ൞ູਔࢳഈݚၘܓઙٜं֥ᆦڱି৯aཨٮྏބ࿊ᄴொݺ൬ࠢັܴඔऌđൈૌ္౨൳٠֥ंؓഈݚֹٜӁ൧ӆଢభ֥ሑঃބໃট֥ყ௹ቓਔሱ֥࠭ܙބყҩđૌॖၛՖᇏ၂ইഈݚ௴๙ंؓഈݚֹٜӁ൧ӆ෮ӻႵ֥ࠎЧ؇đՖطູૌϜ֒భഈݚֹٜӁ൧ӆ֥ؿᅚሼ൝ิ܂၂۱ग़ܴ֥၇ऌb ՎՑࡅ๖ೆטҰࠃđٳ҃Ⴟഈݚ൧ᇏྏߛ௱aຖaྷ߸a௴ຄaᅃКaӉୡa࣡νaޞ१aဗ௵a௵ת֩10۱Ӭ֥60۱ੌ/ཬđ܋൬ࠢ545۱ႵིဢЧࡅ๖ඔऌbטҰԎဢ൞ҐႨٳҪؽࢨ؍Ԏဢࣉྛđᄝ10۱Ӭᇏοᅶ1999-2001୍ྍᄹॖყ൲അᇾᅍٜሹࡹᇽ૫ࠒ֥б২ٳੌ/ཬဢЧđᄝૄ۱ӬෛࠏԎဢ࿊౼Ф٠໙ੌ/षؿཬđᄝФ٠໙ੌ/षؿཬοб২ෛࠏ٠໙ंࡅ๖đሹุഈ൞ٳҪა༢ෛࠏԎဢཌྷࢲކ֥Ԏဢٚمbᄝ෮൬֥ࠢ֞545۱൳٠ࡅ๖ᇏđ%༯߅đॖ܂Ұᆣބނൌb۴ऌטቆᆮᆀ൙ުؓҐ֥ࠢ֞ඔऌࣉྛ֥ౢҰނൌđЧՑט൬֥ࠢඔऌྐ༏ऎႵޓ֥ۚॖᇂྐ؇b і1ğטဢЧॢࡗ֥ٳ҃ ࡅ๖ဢЧඔ б২ ੌ/ཬ Ⴕ߅֥ࡅб২ ๖ဢЧඔ ߛ௱20 3,7 2 19 ຖ35 6,4 4 34 ྷ߸61 11,2 7 55 Ӊୡ51 9,4 5 50 ࣡ν17 3,1 2 15 ௴ຄ44 8,1 7 36 ᅃК59 10,8 6 54 ޞ१51 9,4 6 49 ဗ௵100 18,3 9 100 ௵ת107 19,6 12 103 ሹඔ545 100,0 60 515
ՎՑטᇶี൞ഈݚ൧ᄝᇾٜܓઙ࿊ᄴൈީ֥ཨٮྏބொݺđૌᆺᆌؓ1999-2001୍ᆭࡗषؿ֥ཬđଢູ֥ਔЌᆣܓٜᆀ൞ᄝᆞӈ֥൧ӆగٲ༯ࣉྛ࿊ᄴb1998୍భᇏݓֹٜӁ൧ӆߎႵޓധ֥࠹߃ࣜ࠶֥ޒࠖđޓ؟ݓႵֆ໊֥ᆯ۽ބᆟک֥҆܄ༀჴߎЌڞ০ٳٜ֥ࠏ߶đϤྠؓᇾᅍ֥അཨٮྟᇉߎીႵԉٳಪ്bᄝ1998୍ᆟکӞָ౼ཨਔڞ০ٳٜ֥ॖିྟđᇏݓֹ֥ٜӁြҌᆇᆞֹࣉೆ֞൧ӆ߄ࢨ؍bх૧࿊౼2002୍ᆭުषؿ֥ཬđ൞ၹູॉ੮֞ഈݚֹٜӁᄝ2002୍ᆭުࠤखശ໑đࡎ۬ॹശđᆃൈީ֥ܓٜᆀ௴ђ൳֞Ԉಣ֥൧ӆగٲ֥႕ཙđၘࣜޓඪՂե൞Ֆᇾٜ֥གྷൌླေԛؿট࿊ᄴٜሰਔbູਔղ࣮֥֞ᇏྏଢѓđૌࠢᇏॉ੮1999-2001ᆭࡗܓઙٜ֥ཨٮᆀbᆃ؍ൈࡗଽđഈݚ൧ֹٜӁ൧ӆ൞ٳ໗ؿᅚބ໑ބ֥b 1ğഈݚֹٜӁሼ൝----ᇏٜᄅ؇ᆷඔ 1995-2004 199400199600199800200000200200200400MonthZF Shanghai Overall Housing IndexZF Shanghai Residential Housing IndexZF Shanghai Office Housing Index ᇿğᇏ่ཌٳљ൞ğᇏٜഈݚֹٜӁሸކᆷඔaᇏٜഈݚंᇾᅍੌᆷඔa ᇏٜഈݚϷ܄ੌᆷඔb ૌ֥൳٠໙ࡅ๖ᇏູܓઙٜ෮ڱԛ֥ࡎ۬đᇏࡗᆴູ4625ჭ/ٚđቋູ֮1900đቋູۚ14000đѓሙҵູ1451bૌܓઙ֥ٜሰन૫ࠒູ116ٚđѓሙҵູ27b .FBO 4UE %FW / 50100150200250300construction space size in m2Price per meter at time of buy
ܓٜᆀؓྍᇾٜބंᇾთ֥ડၩӱ؇ ૌ֥טҰཁൕđഈݚं๙ݖ൧ӆ࿊ᄴննڿਔंᇾᇉਈđྍषؿ֥അٜཌྷбݖಀ֥ٜᄝᇉਈഈႵ௴ђิۚđཬสڛༀބ္ܵႵཌྷႋ֥ڿđഈݚ൧୍࣍ট֥܄܋۽ӱࡹഡหљ൞ࢌ๙ٚ૫֥ࡹഡ္ಞं֤֞ൌ߲b 1ēૌཟ൳٠໙ࡅ๖ᇏิ໙đཌྷбᆭభ෮ंᇾ֥ٜđؓଢభགྷंᇾٜሹุࡹᇽᇉਈ֥ुمđ֤֥֞߭ճğ49%֥ದಪູбၛభႵޓնڿđ35%֥ದಪູႵ෮ڿđࠎЧҵ҂؟֥Ⴕ12%đᆺႵ2%֥ದಪູགྷᄝ෮ᇾ֥ྍٜሰбၛభذ߄ਔb ٜؓᇉਈ֥ुم ੱ б২ Ⴕིб২ ࠹б২ Ⴕི Ⴕޓնڿ 265 48,648,948,9 Ⴕ෮ڿ 191 35,035,284,1 ࠎЧҵ҂؟ 64 11,711,895,9 ذ߄ 13 2,42,498,3 ҂ౢԣ 9 1,71,7100,0 ሹඔ 542 99,4100,0 ໃ߭ճ ༢ 3 ,6 ሹඔ 545 100,0 improve a lotimprovealmost sameworsenot clearopinion on quality improvement 2ēૌཟ൳٠໙ࡅ๖ᇏิ໙đཌྷбᆭభ෮ंᇾ֥ཬđؓଢభགྷंᇾཬ֥ڛༀၛࠣสഡീ֥ुمđ֤֥֞߭ճğ34%֥ದಪູбၛభႵޓնڿđ41%֥ದಪູႵ෮ڿđࠎЧҵ҂؟֥Ⴕ18%đႵ4%֥ದಪູགྷᄝ෮ᇾཬбၛభذ߄ਔb ؓཬڛༀބഡീ֥ुم ੱ б২ Ⴕིб২ ࠹б২ Ⴕི Ⴕޓնڿ 186 34,134,334,3 Ⴕ෮ڿ 223 40,941,175,5 ࠎЧҵ҂؟ 101 18,518,694,1 ذ߄ 23 4,24,298,3 ҂ౢԣ 9 1,71,7100,0 ሹඔ 542 99,4100,0 ໃ߭ճ ༢ 3 ,6 ሹඔ 100,0 Percent01020304050
improve a lotimprovealmost sameworsenot clearopinion on community improvement 3ēૌཟ൳٠໙ࡅ๖ᇏิ໙đཌྷбᆭభ෮ंᇾֹ֥đؓଢభᇛшֹ֥ߌᇉਈ֥ुمđ֤֥֞߭ճğ24%֥ದಪູбၛభႵޓնڿđ44%֥ದಪູႵ෮ڿđࠎЧҵ҂؟֥Ⴕ19%đႵ10%֥ದಪູགྷᄝ෮ᇾֹ֥бၛభذ߄ਔb ؓᇛшֹߌᇉਈ֥ुم ੱ б২ Ⴕིб২ ࠹б২ Ⴕི Ⴕޓնڿ 132 Ⴕ෮ڿ 237 ࠎЧҵ҂؟ 104 ذ߄ 57 ҂ౢԣ 11 ሹඔ 541 ໃ߭ճ ༢ 4 .7 ሹඔ improve a lotimprovealmost sameworsenot clearopinion on environment improvement 4ēૌཟ൳٠໙ࡅ๖ᇏิ໙đཌྷбᆭభ෮ंᇾֹ֥؍đؓଢభ෮ंᇾֹ؍֥ളࠃь০ބࢌ๙ሑঃ֥ुمđ֤֥֞߭ճğ28%֥ದಪູбၛభႵޓնڿđ39%֥ದಪູႵ෮ڿđࠎЧҵ҂؟֥Ⴕ24%đႵ8%֥ದಪູགྷᄝ෮ᇾֹ֥؍бၛభذ߄ਔb PercentPercent010203040010203040
ؓളࠃь০ބࢌ๙ሑঃ֥ुم ੱ б২ Ⴕིб২ ࠹б২ Ⴕི Ⴕޓնڿ 152 27,928,128,1 Ⴕ෮ڿ 211 38,739,167,2 ࠎЧҵ҂؟ 129 23,723,991,1 ذ߄ 45 8,38,399,4 ҂ౢԣ 3 ,6,6100,0 ሹඔ 540 99,1100,0 ໃ߭ճ ༢ 5 ,9 ሹඔ 100,0 improve a lotimprovealmost sameworsenot clearopinion on life convenience and traffic improvement Percent010203040
൳٠ࡅ๖ؓഈݚٜࡎ֥ुمބؓໃটٜࡎ֥ყ௹ ܱႿഈݚ֒భ֥ٜࡎ൞҂൞թᄝஞଐa൞҂൞֥ۚ௶đ൞ଢభಆഠ߶ᄝܱᇿ֥ࢊׄ໙ีbՎࡗᇙඪٴ៙đഈݚ൧௴๙ं࣮ࣨᄸહुրᆃ۱໙ีĤૌ֥טҰཁൕđૌ֥൳٠ࡅ๖ᇏđࠫެᇙ१၂ᇁֹಪູഈݚଢభ֥ٜࡎۚਔđఃᇏ49%֥൳٠ؓའಪ֒భഈݚ֥ٜࡎၘ֤ࣜۚ௶đ41%ಪ֒భഈݚ֥ٜࡎொۚbӮ༷ૼؓᅶ֥൞đ77%đٳᆭؽ֥൳٠ؓའಪູഈݚֹ֥ٜӁࡎ۬߶࿃ഈᅨࠇᇀഒЌӻଢభᆃ۱ࡎ໊đ༥ٳ֥߅đुᅨ֥ࡼ࣍၂϶đಪູࡼ໗קᄝଢభᆃ۱ࡎ໊֥ᅝ30%đཌྷؓᅶ֥൞ᆺႵ14%҂֥֞ದुיđಪູ߶նי֥۷൞ࠞ۱љb֒Ф໙֞đૌ෮ಪູ֥ഈݚ௴๙ंॖӵ൳֥ٜࡎඣđ45%֥ಪູކ֥ࡗႋھᄝ4000-6000ჭ/ٚđ29%֥ಪູႋھᄝ6000-8000ჭ/ٚb ؓഈݚଢభٜࡎ֥ुم ੱ б২ Ⴕིб২ ࠹б২ Ⴕི ٜࡎۚਔ 26648,848,948,9 ٜࡎொۚ 22641,541,590,4 ކ 448,18,198,5 ьၒ 5,9,999,4 ҂ౢԣ 3,6,6100,0 ሹ࠹ 54499,8100,0 ໃ߭ճ ༢ 1,2 ሹඔ 545100,0 awfully expensivea bit highreasonablea bit cheapno ideaopinion on shanghai housing price level ؓഈݚٜࡎॖໃট֥ყ௹ ੱ б২ Ⴕིб২ ࠹б২ Ⴕི ӻ࿃ഈᅨ 25246,246,746,7 Ќӻ໗ק 16430,130,477,0 Ⴕ෮༯י 6912,712,889,8 նי 81,51,591,3 ҂ౢԣ 478,68,7100,0 ሹ࠹ 54099,1100,0 ໃ߭ճ ༢ 5,9 ሹඔ 545100,0 Percent01020304050
surely continue to risekeep steadyslightly dropcrash downno ideaopinion on prospective of shanghai housing market ഈݚ௴๙ंॖӵ൳֥ٜࡎࡎ۬ඣčჭ/ٚĎ ੱ б২ Ⴕིб২ ࠹б২ Ⴕི ֮Ⴟ4000 64 11,712,212,2 4000-6000 235 43,144,857,0 6000-8000 151 27,728,885,7 8000-10000 35 6,46,792,4 10000-12000 24 4,44,697,0 ۚႿ12000 16 2,93,0100,0 ሹ࠹ 525 96,3100,0 ໃ߭ճ ༢ 20 3,7 ሹඔ 545 100,0 below 40004000-60006000-80008000-1000010000-1200012000 aboveopinion on maximum affordable housing price per m2 range PercentPercent0102030405001020304050
ުᇿğ ՎՑࡅ๖ೆטႮೋׅ௴ঘն࿐(Uppsala University)ֹٜӁაӬ൧࣮෮čInstitution for Housing and Urban Researchđ Ď֥ӧࢭѰൖሹุڵᄳഡ࠹aቆᆮބൌീđؓטᇉਈaඔऌྐ༏֥ॖौྟބטБ֥ܴۡׄڵᄳb ֥ሰ৳༢ٚൔ൞ğ@ . ߅ğ0046-26-4206539 ज़ีᇶေҕაದߎႵğ ݹభࣉđگ֊ն࿐Ӭ൧ࣜ࠶࣮෮đࣜ࠶࿐Ѱൖ࣮ളđ ሰႯࡱğhaoqianjin@ đ߅ğ021-65643057 ᆽౝđگ֊ն࿐ߌࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏڬ෮Ӊđࣜ࠶࿐Ѱൖđࢃഽđ ሰႯࡱğlizhiqing@ đ߅ğ021-65643145 ՎՑטߎ֤֞گ֊ն࿐Ӭ൧ࣜ࠶࣮෮෮Ӊᇛਟ࢝൱֥ն৯ᆦӻb טؒ26ದđಆ҆টሱگ֊ն࿐ᄝ֥࣮ളބЧ॓ളb
