2005୍ֻ5௹No15,2005(ሹ299௹金融研究)GeneralNo1299ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קܱ༢ં*王自力(ᇏݓದၿྛܼᇜٳྛ,ܼᇜ 510120)ᅋ ေ:ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קᆭࡗ࣮ࣨ൞હܱ༢?Ч໓൮༵ࢺകਔݓຓ࿐ᆀؓؽᆀܱ༢֥࣮,ಖުՖࣁವາࠏ֥ყٝބؓາࠏࠏܒ֥ࣷᇹԛؿ,ٳ༅ਔචٚᄝ؋௹֥؛ބԊ;ࢤሢ๙ݖࡹ৫ሧ)๙ᅮଆ,ࢣൕਔӉ௹ࠊл໗קؓࣁವ໗ק֥՜ࣉቔႨb໓ᅣಪູ,Ϝݺࠊл໗קބࣁವ໗ק֥ᆃᇕ؋௹ԊྟაӉ௹၂ᇁྟ,ؓႿൈ࡚ڵൌགྷࠊл໗קބົࣁವ໗קਆնᆯି֥ᇏနၿྛটඪ,҂ᇗն֥ંބൌၩၬbܱՍ:ࣁವ໗ק;ࠊл໗ק;Ԋ;၂ᇁ;ླྀטᇏٳোݼ:F82210 ໓ངѓ്:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1002-7246(2005)05-0001-11ሱࡓܵᆯିٳԛಀ,ުοᅶྍ֥5ᇏݓದၿྛم6,ݓದၿྛཞᄀটᄀ؟֥ݓࡅ֥ᇏနၿྛ၂ဢ,षൈ੫ྛൌགྷࠊл໗קބົࣁವ໗ק֥ਆնᆯିbಖط,ંބൌनၘіૼ,ࣁವ໗קބၛࠊл໗קູଢѓ֥ࠊлᆟҦᆭࡗ࠻Ⴕ၂ᇁ,ྟ္թᄝ၂ק֥Ԋ,Ֆط۳ᇏနၿྛೂޅᄎႨࠊлᆟҦ,ൈൌགྷࠊл໗קބົࣁವ໗ק֥ᆯିิԛਔभ็ᅞbၹՎ,ധೆฐษؽᆀᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢,ᆞಒϜਆٚ૫֥؛აླྀט,ؓႿᇏနၿྛಪᆇ੫ྛᆯᄳ,҂ᇗေ֥ંބൌၩၬb一a国外学者关于金融稳定与货币稳定关系的研究(၂)SchwartzࡌഡAnnaJ1Schwartz൞ࢠᄪ࣮ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קᆭࡗܱ༢֥࿐ᆀᆭ၂b1988,୍ؿі5ࣁವ໗קა৳Ϲνಆຩ6၂໓,ಪູົࠊл໗ק(ࠇӫࡎ۬ඣ໗ק,ၛ༯)֥ࠊлᆟҦ҂ॖၛࢆ֮ࣁವ҂໗קؿള֥ۀੱ,ൈ္߶ࢆ֮ࣁವ҂໗ק֥ᇗӱ؇bᇁ৯Ⴟົࠊл໗ק֥ᇏနၿྛॖၛྛቋުվॻದ֥ླေࢆ֞ቋཬb1995,୍Schwartzࣉ၂҄ᄝؿі5֥༢ྟڄགބޡܴࣜ࠶6၂໓ᇏӂඍ,֞ॖྐঠ֥ၛົӻࠊл໗קູଢѓ֥ࠊлᆟҦ,ູࣜ࠶ิ܂ਔ໗קѩॖყҩ֥০ੱߌ,ၹՎႵ০ႿЌӻ൬۠ರ௹:2005-03-31ቔᆀࡥࢺ:ሱ৯(19571121-),ଳ,ඹԫದ,ࠊлၿྛ࿐Ѱൖ(ު),࢝൱,࣮ჴ,܂ᆯႿᇏݓದၿྛܼᇜٳྛb࣮ٚཟ:ࠊлᆟҦaࣁವ໗קaᇅ؇Էྍა۽ऎԷྍb* ۋ྆ቔᆀ֥࣮ളaᇏն࿐֥ွؓЧ໓֥໓ངᆜaଆഡ࠹aൌᆣҋਘ݂ବބܴׄྙӮᇏ֥ᇗေ܊ངb 1
2金融研究ሹ299௹ࢠ֥֮০ੱ҂֥ڄག,ՖطႵ০ႿЌӻࣁವุ༢ބࣁವࠏܒ֥໗ࡲྟbՖّ૫টࢃ,Schwartzಪູ,ࠊл҂໗קࣜӈ߶ႄఏࣁವุ༢֥҂໗ק,ѩࡎ۬ඣ֥ѯ߶ࣉ၂҄ذ߄ᆃᇕ҂໗ק,э֤۷ູᄦbᆃᇕቔႨ֥ؿള,൞ၹູӻ࿃֥๙ࠊளᅮ՜Ӯࡎ۬ӻ࿃ഈᅨ֥௹ຬ,ՖطྙӮؓᆇൌ߭Бੱ၂ᇕݖႿুܴ֥ყҩ,ၹՎՏࠗਔࠏྟ֥ሧބࢹվbೂݔ๙ࠊளᅮಖֹ༯י,ࢹॻದ֥ҍༀሑঃ߶ذ߄,ః൬ೆॖିэ֤مӊߎ၇ऌ৵࿃๙ᅮੱקࡎ֥վॻ,Ֆطԛགྷվॻິჿ,طິჿႻࢹԛվॻ֥ࣁವࠏܒ࣪ᆴ༯ࢆ,ՖطྙӮࣁವ҂໗קb෮ၛ,ೂݔࡎ۬ඣ൞໗ק,֥ᇀഒೂݔࡎ֥۬ᄎ൞ॖၛყҩ,֥ପહሧჷࡼ߶֤֞ቋࣜ࠶֥ᇂ,ป҂ॉ੮ః֥ჰၹ,ࣁವ҂໗ק֥ॖିྟࡼ߶ࢆ֞ቋ֮bSchwartzဢՖ๙ࠊளᅮႄఏྐ༏໙ี֥࢘؇ӂඍਔؽᆀᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢bᄝࢹվ൧ӆഈ,ࢹॻದބվॻದᆭࡗЧദࣼթᄝሢᇗ֥ྐ༏҂ؓӫ໙,ีՖطԛགྷཟ࿊ᄴބ֣֡ڄག(StiglitzބWeiss1981)bSchwartzಪູ,๙ࠊளᅮ֥ѯᆃᇕྐ༏҂ؓӫႄఏ֥ཟ࿊ᄴބ֣֡ڄག໙ีэ֤۷ູᇗbၹູ๙ࠊளᅮ֥թᄝ,֤վॻٚᄝљࢹॻದބཛଢ֥ᇉਈഈэ֤۷ູbߐओ߅ඪ,ࣼ൞๙ࠊளᅮվॻᆀ૫ਢ۷ᇗ֥ྐ༏҂ؓӫ,Ֆطվॻ֥ٚڄགВࡆնbൈSchwartzႻಪູ,ࢹվචٚؓႿࡎ۬ඣഈᅨ֥հ༂ࢳ္߶ࣁವࠏܒమᄝ֥ڄགᄹࡆbбೂ,ೂݔࢹॻದु֞ࡎ۬ඣഈശ,հ༂ֹࢳູࣇࣇ൞ሱ֥࠭Ӂ֥ࡎ۬ഈശ,ط҂൞ᆜุࡎ۬ඣ֥ഈശ,ь߶๙ݖᄹࡆሧঔնളӁ,طᆃႻᄹࡆՖࣁವࠏܒ֥ವሧbᆜุࡎ۬ඣ֥ഈᅨࢹॻದყ௹֥ᆇൌ൬ၭੱمղ,ູ֞ఃವሧ֥ࣁವࠏܒဢӵքਔڄགbၹՎ,Schwartzؓؽᆀܱ༢֥ӂඍॖၛۀওູ,ົࠊл໗ק֥ࠊлᆟҦဢ္ॖၛൌགྷࣁವ໗קbBordoބWheelock(1998)ࡼSchwartz֥ᆃ၂ંඍӫູSchwartzࡌഡbSchwartzࡌഡ֥Ӯ৫၇ঠႿਆ۱่ࡱ:(1)๙ࠊளᅮੱ֥ѯ,ᄝଖᇕӱ؇ഈ൞҂ॖყҩ;֥(2)ࢹॻದބվॻದ҂ିປಆؓԊ෮Ⴕၹູ๙ࠊளᅮэջট֥҂ಒקྟbᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ,ԛႿൌགྷࠊл໗קଢ֥֥ࠊлᆟҦဢॖၛЌᆣࣁವ໗ק֥ൌགྷb(ؽ)Ԯܴׄ෮໌Ԯܴ,ׄࠧಪູࣁವ໗קބࠊл໗קؽᆀᆭࡗթᄝ၂ᇁྟ֥ܴׄbSchwartzࡌഡ൞Ԯܴ֥ׅׄ,ھࡌഡൌ࠽ഈϜࠊл໗קቔູࣁವ໗ק֥ԉٳ่ࡱ,ၹط൞၂ᇕ٤ӈ఼֥ࡌഡbᆭު࿐ᆀᄝՎࠎԤഈ֥࣮,ᇯࡶ٢ਔᆃ၂఼ࡌק,ѩ٤ӈരᇗֹಪູ,ෙಖؽᆀᆭࡗթᄝሢଖᇕ၂ᇁྟ,္ᆺ൞ࡥֆֹಪࠊл໗קିܔ՜ࣉࣁವ໗ק,ࠇᆀඪࠊл໗קؓႿࣁವ໗ק൞Ⴕၭ֥(Issing2003),طѩ٤ࣁವ໗ק֥ԉٳ่ࡱ(BordoބWheelock1998,BordoaDuekerބWheelock2000)bBordoބWheelockՖؓ18ൗࡀଌ֞20ൗࡀ80୍սૅݓaႇݓބࡆଦնؿള֥༢ྟބ٤༢ྟࣁವາࠏބ๙ࠊளᅮགྷའ֥ܴҳᇏ,֤ԛࢲં:Ֆൎഈ,ु҂ॉ੮൞ၹູࠊлၹߎ൞٤ࠊлၹႄఏ֥ࡎ۬ѯ,ࣁವາࠏ๙ӈԛགྷᄝ,Ⴎӻ࿃֥๙ࠊளᅮሇэູ๙ࠊࣅ෪ᆃဢ֥ࡎ۬ඣࠤखэ߄֥ߌᇏbၹՎ,ࠊл҂໗קಒൌؓࣁವุ༢֥҂໗קႵ႕ཙbᆃဢૌࣼ҆ٳֹဒᆣਔSchwartzࡌഡ,൞ૌѩ҂ିဒᆣЌӻࠊл֥໗ק၂ק߶ൌགྷࣁವ໗קbԮં֥ࠎЧܴׄ൞ࠊл໗קିܔ՜ࣉࣁವุ༢֥໗ק,ൈ္ໃஆԢؽᆀᄝ؋௹ଽ֥ԊྟbKentބLowe(1997)ၛࠣBrousseauބDetken(2001)नಪ,ູ၂۱ሢငႿӉ
2005୍ֻ5௹ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קܱ༢ં 3௹ࠊл໗ק֥ࠊлᆟҦ,҂ॖିх૧؋௹ଽ๙ࠊளᅮӑݖॖࢤ൳֥ඣ,ၹູࣁವุ༢ଽ҂໗ק֥మᄝၹ֤؋௹ଽсྶࢤ൳ӑح֥๙ᅮbႮႿࣁವາࠏؿള֥ॖିྟބാ൞҂ؓӫ֥,ࠧࣁವາࠏؿള֥ۀੱޓ,֮၂֊ؿളь߶ᄯӮޓն֥ാ,෮ၛࠊлᆟҦႵൈေᄝࣈരྟ֥шჸࣉྛ࣯ᆞ,طᆃᄵॖିᆇൌ֥๙ᅮᄝ؋௹ଽӑݖ௹ຬᆴ(BordoބJeanne2002)bHerreroބRio(2003)০ႨCaprioބKlingebiel(2003)ิ܂֥ၿྛາࠏ֥ඔऌ,Ⴈ࠹࠹ਈ֥ٚم,ؓၿྛາࠏ֥ؿളაᇏနၿྛࠊлᆟҦଢѓᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢ࣉྛਔ࠹݂߭bૌ݂֥߭ࢲݔіૼ,ᄝః่ࡱ۳ק֥౦ঃ༯,၂Ϯটඪࡼᇏနၿྛ֥ᆟҦଢѓህᇿႿࠊлބࡎ۬ඣ֥໗קࡨഒਔၿྛາࠏؿള֥ॖିྟb൞၇ऌ҂֥౦ྙ߶Ⴕ҂bၹՎ,҂ܵ൞ંࡌഡഈ,ߎ൞Ֆൎބൌᆣ֥ဒഈ,Ԯંӻဢ၂۱ܴ,ׄࠧົӻࠊл֥໗קႵ০Ⴟࣁವุ༢֥໗קbෙಖૌᄝᆃ۱఼ܴ֥ׄഈႵ෮҂,ࠎЧંׄ൞၂ᇁ֥b()ྍߌࡌഡᄝࠊл໗קބࣁವ໗קᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢ᆃ۱໙ีഈ,ྍߌࡌഡӻ၂ᇕაԮંປಆཌྷّ֥ܴׄbྍߌࡌഡંᆀಪ,ູၛൌགྷࠊл໗קູଢѓ֥ࠊлᆟҦᄯӮਔࣁವุ༢֥,֕ࡆնਔࣁವุ༢֥మᄝڄག,҂০Ⴟࣁವ໗קbMiskin(1996)ٳ༅,֞ؓႿ॥ᇅ๙ᅮ෮сྶ֥ۚ০ੱᆟҦذ߄ਔၿྛ֥ሧӁڵᅏіބఒြ֥࣪ᆴ,หљ൞ೂݔૌႮႿ་ႄሧЧੀೆ֝ᇁݖ؇֥ڵᅏބࢠ֥ۚྐႨڄག,ࠇᆀႮႿຓݓሧЧੀೆطԛགྷлᇕ֥҂bCukierman(1992)ಪ,ູЌӻ֮๙ᅮ֥ᆟҦေބൌᇉྟֹิۚ০,ੱೂݔၿྛ҂ିֹࣉྛሧӁބڵᅏ֥ሇ߄,ࣼ߶ࡆն০ੱ֥҂,Ֆط૫ਢࢠն֥൧ӆڄགbᆃུܴׄಪູЌӻ֮๙ᅮ֥ࠊлᆟҦ߶ջটࣁವ҂໗ק֥ႅߑbSchinasi(2003)ਸ਼ຓߎᆷԛ,ᇏနၿྛ߶૫ਢᆃဢ֥,൞ູਔၝᇅ๙ᅮطࡼ০ੱิۚ300۱ࠎׄ,طࢲݔࡼ߶၂ུؓ০ੱ٤ӈૹۋ֥նၿྛ૫ਢ۷նѯྟ֥ڄག,ߎ൞ູਔᆃུնၿྛ֥νಆط٢ؓࠊлᆟҦଢѓ֥ӵ୶bૅ৳ԥ܄ष൧ӆҠቔჴ߶(FOMC)֥ܲჴLindsayᄝ1996୍ิԛ,ᇏနၿྛӮۿֹࡼ๙ࠊளᅮ॥ᇅᇾ,ॖၛྙӮؓࣜ࠶ؿᅚభ֥ࣟুܴყ௹,൞ದૌ֥නམ၂֊Фᆃဢ၂ᇕܴᅝऌ,ૌؓνಆྟ֥հ༂ۋतࣼॖିࡆնႄఏሧӁ֥ѯྟ,ՖطྙӮమᄝ֥໙ีbBorioބLowe(2002)္ٳ༅֞,ؓᇏနၿྛЌӻࠊл໗ק֥ྐॖၛࡨഒ๙ࠊளᅮ֥৯,ࡎ۬ބ۽ሧЌӻᅔ,ྟဢॖି՜ࣁವ҂ޙᄝࣁವุ༢ଽࠒbၹູࡎ֥۬໗קೂݔ൞ᄝࣜ࠶ۚᅨൈᄠൈ֥܂۳֥ٚᆞཟԊࠌջট,֥ၹՎ߶ӁളؓႿࣜ࠶భࣟބሧӁࡎ۬ݖႿুܴ֥ყ࠹,ᆃ߶֝ᇁݖ؇֥ሧބྐվᄹӉbطሧӁࡎ֥۬ѯބྐվᄹӉႻ߶ཌྷ՜ࣉ,ၹູሧӁࡎ֥۬ഈᅨॖႨႿַ֥Ӂࡎᆴᄹࡆ,֝ᇁྐվ֥ঔᅦbྍߌࡌഡંಪ,ູ๙ࠊளᅮ֥৯ѩ҂၂קіགྷູ๙ࠊளᅮЧദ,ೂݔ(1)ӌഅ֥קࡎି৯;֮(2)թᄝޡܴࣜ࠶ᇏ܂۳֥ٚᆞཟԊࠌ;(3)֮๙ࠊளᅮ֥௹ຬb෮ၛ,ࠧᄝ҂թᄝࡎ۬նږѯ֥౦ঃ༯,ࣁವุ༢ဢ૫ਢ҂໗ק֥າགbၹطૌಪ,ູᇏနၿྛࣇࣇၛࠊл໗קቔູଢѓ൞҂ቀܔ֥,طсྶᆰࢤܱᇿႿࣁವ҂ޙЧദbᆃ
4金融研究ሹ299௹ᇕᆰࢤ֥ܱᇿႮਆ۱҆ٳቆӮ,൮༵൞୭৯х૧ࣁವڄག֥ࠒ,Վຓ൞ᄝഈඍծീ҂ቀܔ֥౦ঃ༯,࣐ॖିֹࡼؿള֥ࣁವ҂໗קᄯӮ֥າݝބӮЧࢆ֞ቋ֮(Issing2003)b二a金融稳定与货币稳定关系的冲突性解析(၂)ࣁವ໗ק֥ົॖି႕ཙࠊлᆟҦଢѓ֥ൌགྷࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗ק֥Ԋ,൮༵টሱႿؓཊೆ֥ࠏܒ֥ࣷᇹॖି๙ᅮੱொଢѓ,Ֆطᄝ໙ีԛགྷൈࠊл֒अԩႿᒹᒸ֥ਆֹbࣁವ҂໗ק֝ᇁࣁವุ༢ଽ҆ੀྟ҂ቀ,႕ཙ֞ؓൌุࣜ࠶֥ሧࣁ܂۳,ࢆ֮ਔሧ֥ᄹӉbሧᄹӉ֥ࢆ֮Ⴛࣉ၂҄ࢆ֮ਔఒြ֥࣪ᆴ,طࣁವࠏܒཟఒြิ܂ሧࣁສສၛఒြॖၛิ܂֥քЌࠇַ࣪ᆴູ၇ऌ,֥ၹՎ,ఒြ࣪ᆴ֥ࢆ֮ఃିՖࣁವุ༢ࠆ֤֥ሧࣁ܂۳Ⴛࣉ၂҄ࡨഒbೂՎ࿖ߌ,ቋᇔ֝ᇁሧຽ෪,Ֆطቅθਔࣜ࠶֥ᆞӈؿᅚ,ᆃࣼ൞ࣁವ҂໗קཟൌุࣜ࠶Ԯ֝/֥ࣁವࡆఖ0ིႋ(Lai2003)bࣁವุ༢֥Ԋࠌཟൌุࣜ࠶֥Ԯ֝ࠏીႵิ܂າࠏყ֥ٝ၇ऌބࡹၰ,ಖط,ಏิ܂ਔؓາࠏࣉྛࣷᇹ֥නਫ਼bᄝؓࣁವุ༢໗ק֥Ԋࠌؿളൈ,၂ٚ૫ࠊл֒अॖၛᆰࢤཟࣁವุ༢ᇿೆсေ֥ੀ,ྟ২ೂཟࣁವ൧ӆࠇᆀหק֥ࣁವࠏܒิ܂ࣅࠤੀྟჱᇹ,ࠧቋުվॻ;ਸ਼၂ٚ૫,ࠊл֒अॖၛҐ౼ծീյ/ࣁವࡆఖ0ིႋ֥ذྟ࿖ߌb/ࣁವࡆఖ0ིႋ֥࿖ߌᇏ,ቋԛ֥หׄ൞ੀྟ҂ቀ֝ᇁྐվຽ෪,ၹՎ,ࠊл֒अঔᅦྟ֥ࠊлᆟҦཁ֤Ⴍູсေb၂ٚ૫ॖၛᄹࡆࣁವࠏܒཟఒြ֥վॻ܂۳,ਸ਼၂ٚ૫ิۚఒြ๙ݖᆣಊ൧ӆࠆ֤ᆰࢤವሧ֥ࠏ߶,ࢆ֮ᆰࢤವሧ֥ӮЧbѩ,ႮႿᆃ۱࿖ߌᇏႵ/ࡆఖ0ིႋ֥թᄝ,ၹՎ,ࠊлᆟҦႋھб҂թᄝ/ࡆఖ0ིႋ֥౦ঃ۷ູঔᅦ,Ֆطַཨᆃᇕ/ࡆఖ0ིႋbಖط,ೂݔՎൈഠ߶ࣜ࠶૫ਢࡎ۬ഈശ֥৯,ؓཊೆ֥ࠏܒࣉྛࣷᇹ,൝сေᄹࡆੀྟ֥܂۳,ঔᅦྟ֥ࠊлᆟҦࡼ߶ࠊл܂ႋொଢѓ,๙ࠊளᅮࣉ၂҄ذ߄b၂ٚ૫,ؓႿཊೆ֥ࣁವࠏܒটඪ,ૌླေ۷؟֥ੀྟᆦӻၛϥຂ,ՎൈႮႿڵᅏᇗ,ૌؓႿ০ੱഈശູࠞૹۋ,ັཬ֥০ੱэ߄ॖିຯཽ֞ఃളթ;ਸ਼၂ٚ૫,ՖЌӻ֮๙ᅮ֥࢘؇ॉ੮,ग़ܴഈླေࠊл֒अҐ౼ࣅ෪ྟ֥ࠊлᆟҦ,൬߭ੀྟ,ۚ০ੱbၹՎ,ࠊл֒अࡼᄝ൞ڎؓཊೆ֥ࠏܒࣉྛࣷᇹᆃ۱໙ีഈԩႿᒹᒸֹ֥bഈൗࡀ90୍ս֥ರЧགྷൌ,ࠧ൞ඪૼ֮๙ᅮაࣁವ໗קᆭࡗԊྟ֥ׅ২ሰbՖඔऌഈ,ुರЧஞଐࣜ࠶ᆭު୍֥ࠫࡗ,၂ᆰົӻਔࢠ֥֮๙ࠊளᅮ,ੱೂі၂෮ൕbі၂ 20ൗࡀ90୍սರЧࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱა๙ࠊளᅮੱֆ໊:%1991199219931994199519961997199819992000GDPൌ࠽ᄹӉੱ215014014111215314012-018119117ཨٮࡎᆷඔ014-1-118-114-1-3151-212-018-011 ሧਘটჷ:ᇏݓದၿ5ྛࣁವ࣮Б6ۡ2002୍ֻ4௹bಖطᆜ۱90୍ս,ರЧ֥ࣁವࠏܒ֚о൙ࡱ҂؎,Ⴍః൞ರЧܿଆࢠնൌ৯ࢠ఼֥ࣁವࠏܒ္ٴٴ֚о,ೂіؽ෮ൕbॖ֮๙ᅮໃсିܔሱֹջটࣁವ໗קb
2005୍ֻ5௹ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קܱ༢ં 5іؽ 20ൗࡀ90୍սರЧ֚о֥ࣁವࠏܒ၂ফൈࡗࠏܒӫ1994୍12ᄅתࣘླྀބྐႨഠaνಆྐႨഠდᇥྐႨഠaଡࣃྐႨഠ1995୍7ᄅѡ९ၿྛ1996୍3ᄅလၿྛ1996୍11ᄅፘބၿྛ1997୍4ᄅರӁ߲ದ൰Ќག܄ඳ1997୍11ᄅ3ರလᆣಊ܄ඳ(ರЧֻնᆣಊ܄ඳ)1997୍11ᄅ17ರКݚ֡ຉᆲၿྛ(ರЧֻնၿྛ)1997୍11ᄅ22ರ၂ᆣಊ(ರЧֻඹնᆣಊ܄ඳ) ሧਘটჷ:http://www1ecdc1net1cn/newindex/chinese/page/tumen/dongbei1(ؽ)֮๙ᅮࠊлᆟҦ҂০Ⴟࣁವ໗ק֥ົّݖট,ࠊл໗קބࣁವ໗קᆭࡗ֥Ԋ,ᇶေіགྷᄝЌӻࠊл໗קၛ֮ࠣ๙ᅮ֥ࠊлᆟҦॖିࣁವุ༢૫ਢੀྟ؋ಌ֥ี,ՖطᄯӮࣁವࠏܒࣜႏ,ႄؿࣁವ҂໗קbູٝᆸ๙ࠊளᅮ,Ԯ֥նࠊлᆟҦ۽ऎ(์གྷੱaթॻሙСࣁੱބ܄ष൧ӆҠቔ)ॖିაყٝࣁವ҂໗ק֥ླေཌྷ؛bᄝࣜ࠶ۚᅨൈ௹,ູਔൌགྷ֮๙ᅮ֥ࠊлᆟҦଢѓ,сྶҐ౼ࣅ෪ྟࠊлᆟҦ,ೂิۚ์གྷੱބሙСࣁ,ੱࣉྛ܄ष൧ӆԛ൲bิۚ์གྷੱބሙСࣁੱ֥ࢲݔ൞ᆰࢤࡨഒਔࣁವࠏܒ֥ੀሧࣁ,ႋؓؑڱڄག֥ି৯༯ࢆb၂֊૫ਢࠪ,ؑੀሧࣁ҂ቀၛႨႿᆦڱ,сྶэགྷӉ௹ሧӁbط؋௹ଽэགྷӉ௹ሧӁ߶ᄥ൳ാ,ՖطޓॖିႮੀྟ҂ቀሇэູሧ҂ַᅏbࠊл֒अࣉྛ܄ष൧ӆԛ൲֥ࢲݔ൞ิۚਔ൧ӆ০,ੱ൧ӆ০ੱ֥ิۚ၂ٚ૫ੀྟ҂ቀ֥ࠏܒၛᄝ൧ӆഈࠣൈࠆ֤сေ֥ੀྟҀԉ,ࠇᆀсྶᆦڱޓ֥ۚӮЧ,ਸ਼၂ٚ૫ႻఃჰႵڵᅏ֥ӮЧิۚbՎຓ,ّ๙ᅮ֥ࠊлᆟҦᆰࢤᄯӮࡎ۬ඣ༯ࢆ,߶ذ߄ఒြބं֥ሧӁڵᅏі,طఒြބं๙ݖվॻބթॻြༀࣁವุ༢ࡹ৫৳༢bఒြ֥ҍༀሑঃذ߄๙ݖྐվ౻ّ֡ঌ߭ࣁವุ༢,ᄹࡆਔၿྛ༢ሧӁ֥ٚڄགbೂݔࣁವࠏܒྐվਈݖնࠇᆀݖႿࠢᇏ,૫ਢࡎ۬༯י,ಸၞྙӮ҂ਅվॻ֥ࠒbᄝᆣಊ൧ӆ,ఒြҍༀሑঃ֥ذ߄,߶ᆰࢤᄯӮ൧ӆࡎ֥۬ѯ,၂֊٢ն൧ӆѯྟ֥ၹթᄝ¹,߶ᄯӮࣁವ҂໗קbၹՎ,ࣅ෪ྟࠊлᆟҦ֥ࢲݔࣁವࠏܒ֥գྟᄹࡆ,ႋؓڄག֥ି৯ࢆ,֮၂֊ؿള҂০ၹԊࠌ,ࠧಸၞႄఏ҂໗קbླေᆷԛ֥൞,ᆃ֥෮໌ࠊлᆟҦॖିႄᇁࣁವ҂໗ק,ѩ٤ၩሢࠊлᆟҦ൞ᄯӮࣁವ҂໗ק֥۴Чჰၹb൙ൌഈ,ࣁವ҂໗ק֥۴ሰᄝݖ؇ྐႨঔᅦѩႮՎջট֥ڄགВݖ؟,ᆞႮႿᆃ၂۴Чჰၹ֥թᄝ,۲ᇕຓളၹЇওࠊлᆟҦ֥э߄ҌॖିӮູׄಗࣁವ҂໗ק֥֝ࠅཌb¹ᆃུၹᇶေᆷ҂ൡ֥֒ࠗৣࠏᇅaڄགܵ҂ࡲಆa൧ӆಌكૼ؇ބ൧ӆࠎԤഡീ҂ປ֩(IMF2003)b
6金融研究ሹ299௹()ࣁವ҂໗ק֥۴ሰᄝݖ؇ྐႨঔᅦ෮໌ݖ؇ྐႨঔᅦ൞ᆷࣁವࠏܒӑݖሱദڄགܵି৯֥ྐႨঔᅦ,ࠇᆀაሱദڄགܵି৯҂֥ྐႨ٢bݖ؇֥ྐႨঔᅦࣁವุ༢ބࣁವࠏܒ૫ਢऍն֥൧ӆڄགބྐႨڄག,ַॆڄག֥ି৯༯ࢆb֒҂০֥Ԋࠌؿള,ࠧ൞၂ׄັ֥ᆑ,֕߶ؓ൬ၭӁളऍն֥႕ཙbࣁವ҂໗ק֥ྙӮਫ਼ࣥॖၛ૭ඍູೂ༯ࣁವ҂໗קྙӮਫ਼ࣥb1 ࣁವ҂໗קྙӮਫ਼ࣥ۴ऌݓ࠽ࠊлࠎࣁቆᆮ֥࠹,ሱ1980୍ၛট,۲ӮჴݓႮႿၿྛ҂ਅվॻݖۚႄؿ֥ࣁವ໙ีᅝ෮Ⴕؿളࣁವ໙ีݓࡅ֥66%ၛഈ,طႮႿ҂ਅվॻݖۚႄؿࣁವາࠏ֥ᅝ58%ၛഈ(IMF1998)bॖ,҂ਅվॻಯಖ൞ၿྛ໗ק֥ᇶေຯཽbط҂ਅվॻࠧটჷႿݖ؇֥ྐվ٢,طཌྷႋ֥ڄགܵି৯҂bࣼᆣಊ༢ط,ӻႵݖ؟֥ڄགሧӁ,ݖ؟֥ڄགВ,߶ࢆ֮ؓڄག֥ӵ൳ି৯b҂ো֥ݖ؇ྐႨঔᅦᄯӮؓ҂൧ӆ֥ྐྏ໙ีb୍࣍ট,ൗࢸٓຶଽࢠնࠫՑၿྛބࣁವࠏܒ֥າࠏ൙ࡱඪૼਔݖ؇ྐႨঔᅦؓࣁವ໗ק֥ຯཽb1995୍7ᄅ,ሹሧӁղ366ၡ,ಆ౯ஆֻ169໊֥ರЧѡ९ၿྛ࿆҃Ӂ,ؓರЧࣁವࢸ֥ᄯӮਔऍն֥႕ཙb࣮ఃჰၹ,ࠧ൞ၹູఃሧӁࠢᇏႿڄགࢠֹ֥ٜۚӁվॻb֒ರЧᆟکູၝᇅࣜ࠶ஞଐطൌྛࣅ෪ྟҍᆟᆟҦބࠊлᆟҦൈ,ෛሢٜࡎބֹࡎ֥ࠤख༯יbھၿྛֹٜؓӁྛြ֥վॻذ߄Ӯູ҂ਅᅏಃbऌ࠹,ႄఏః֚о֥م൬֥߭7900ၡᅏಃࠫެಆ൞ֹٜӁվॻbൌ࠽ഈ,Ֆ1992୍ष,ၹֹູٜӁஞଐ֥ਚ,ರЧྸ؟ࣁವࠏܒֹٜؓӁ֥վॻनذ߄Ӯ҂ਅᅏಃ,תࣘླྀބྐႨഠaνಆྐႨഠaდᇥྐႨഠaଡࣃྐႨഠ֩36ࡅࣁವࠏܒؿളਔࠪؑބ֚оڄӖbཁಖ,ᄝࣁವุ༢҂໗ק֥۴ჷ)))ݖ؇ྐႨঔᅦթᄝ֥౦ঃ༯,૫ਢຓ҆Ԋࠌೂࣜ࠶ࠎЧ૫ࠇޡܴᆟҦэ߄,ၝࠇఃؿྟ൙ࡱؿളൈ,Ч္գ֥ࣁವࠏܒބࣁವุ༢ࡼ۷ࡆգbᆃུຓ҆Ԋࠌޓॖିࣼ൞ඵઍຆ֥ቋު၂۴֟Ҥbݖ؇֥ྐႨঔ
2005୍ֻ5௹ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קܱ༢ં 7ᅦࣁವุ༢ڄག҂؎ࠒ,ᄝຓ҆Ԋࠌটਢൈ,ཁ֤҂ऽ၂ࠌb三a金融稳定与货币稳定关系的一致性探讨࣐ܵຓ҆ԊࠌЇওࠊлᆟҦ֥э߄,ॖିࣇ൞Ⴚؿࣁವ҂໗ק֥ຓ҆ჰၹ,ࣁವ҂໗ק֥۴ሰᄝࣁವࠏܒЧദ֥ݖ؇ྐႨঔᅦၛࠣႮՎ෮ջট֥ڄགВݖն,сྶᇿၩ,ೂݔࠊл҂໗ק֥౦ঃӉ௹թᄝ,ቋᇔ္൝сႄᇁྐႨݖ؇ঔᅦ,ՖطᄯӮࣁವ҂໗קbᆃૌ๙ݖࡹ৫ሧ)๙ᅮଆটӂඍᆃ၂ჰb(၂)ሧ)๙ᅮଆ൮༵ॉҳؓ๙ࠊளᅮყ௹ೂޅ႕ཙఒြࡅ֥ሧथҦb൙ൌഈ,๙ᅮყ௹ᄝਆ۱ٚ૫߶Տࠗሧ֥ᄹӉ:(1)๙ᅮყ௹ࢆ֮ਔሧ෮ླࢹվሧࣁ֥ӮЧ,ၹՎᄝࢠ֥ۚ๙ᅮყ௹༯ሧᆀႵ۷ն֥჻ຬࠆ֤ࢹվሧࣁࣉྛሧb(2)۴ऌवථ҂ປಆྐ༏ଆ,ӌഅᆺିܴҩ֞ሱ࠭Ӂ֥ࡎ۬э߄,ᆃဢყ௹֥ࡎ۬ഈശၩሢమᄝ൬ၭੱ֥ิۚbႮՎਆ۱ٚ૫֥ቔႨ,ؓ༯၂௹֥๙ᅮყ௹ିܔ՜ࣉЧ௹ሧਈ۷ն֥ᄹӉ,Ⴈ܄ൔট૭ඍ,ࠧ:DIt=DI(Pet+1)ൔᇏDIіൕሧᄹӉ,ੱ9DI/9Pe>0ّݖট,ؓႿሧᄹӉؓ๙ࠊளᅮ֥ቔႨ,ᄝ҂ॉ੮ఃၹ(ҍᆟࠊлᆟҦ֥Ԋࠌ֩)֥౦ঃ༯,ᄝႿሧ֥ᄹӉᆰࢤᄹࡆਔؓሧ֥ླ,ၹط՜ࣉਔ๙ࠊளᅮੱ֥ഈശbࠧ:Pt=P(DIt) ఃᇏ9P/9DI>0གྷൌ֥๙ᅮੱބყ௹֥๙ᅮੱ๙ݖൡႋྟყ௹֥ቔႨࡹ৫৳༢,ࠧᄝીႵᆟҦۄಠ(ೂყ௹֥֞ࠊлԊࠌ)ൈ,ሧᆀሹ൞۴ऌၛສ֥ྐ༏টྙӮყ௹,ࠧ:Pet+1=E(Pt|8t)+Et ఃᇏEtູϢᄮലbູࡥ߄ఏ,ૌҐႨ၂ᇕቋࡥֆ֥ყ௹ٚൔ,ࠧၛഈ၂௹֥๙ᅮੱটቔູؓ༯၂௹֥ყ௹,ࠧPet+1=PtbᆃဢૌॖၛᄝDI-P૫ഈቔԛؽᆀ֥౷ཌ,ೂ2-1ބ2-2b2-1 DI(P)౷ཌ2-2 P(DI)౷ཌ
8金融研究ሹ299௹ 2-2ᇏ,P(DI)ཌᆭ෮ၛ൞၂่ᆰཌ,൞ၹູሧᄹӉੱDIؓ๙ࠊளᅮੱ֥ቔႨ൞๙ݖᆰࢤᄹࡆਔሧླႄఏࡎ۬ഈശ֥,ၹՎᆃᇕቔႨཌྷؓࡥֆ,ૌॖၛ࣍රֹಪູ൞ᆰཌbᄝP(DI)ཌഈ֥ٚׄ,ሧਈӑݖཌྷႋ๙ᅮੱؓႋ֥ඣ,ၹط๙ᅮੱႵഈശ֥ౠཟ,ᆃུׄႵཟႷᄎཟPཌौ֥൝;ط༯֥ٚׄᄵႵཟቐᄎཟPཌौ֥൝,ೂ2ᇏࡰ෮ൕbط2-1ᇏ,DI(P)ཌᄵ൞๙ݖྏყ௹ӁളቔႨbૌࡌקሧᆀ൮༵߶ؓ๙ࠊளᅮੱႵ၂۱ಪູކᆞӈѯ֥ٓຶଽ,ᄝᆃ۱ٓຶଽ,ૌ߶бࢠ໗ֹࣉྛሧbᆺႵ֒ყ௹๙ᅮੱࠇᆀყҩ֞ሱ֥࠭Ӂࡎ۬ഈശࢠնൈ,၂ٚ૫Վൈࢹվሧࣁш࠽ӮЧ߶նږࢆ,֮ਸ਼ຓԛႿࠏ֥ଢ,֥ሧਈ߶ӯགྷ۷նږ؇֥ഈശbّᆭᄵ,ّ֒๙ࠊࣅ෪ൈ,ሧਈႻ߶ӯགྷ۷նږ؇֥༯ࢆbၹՎ,DI(P)ཌॖၛ૭ඍӮೂ1෮ൕ֥ྙሑ,ࠧ292DI/9Pe>0bᄝDI(P)ཌቐ֥ٚׄ,๙ᅮੱ֮Ⴟሧਈؓႋ֥ඣ,ၹط߶෪ࡨሧ,ՖطႵཟ༯ᄎཟDI(P)ཌौ֥൝;ဢ,Ⴗ֥ٚ,ׄყ௹๙ᅮੱࢠۚ,߶ᄹࡆሧ,ՖطႵཟഈᄎཟDI(P)ཌौ֥൝bೂ1ᇏࡰ෮ൕb(ؽ)ሧ)๙ᅮଆٳ༅ೂݔࡼਆ่౷ཌ٢֞၂ఏࣉྛॉҳ,ᇏ۲თ֥ׄᄎሑࠧೂ3෮ൕbૌु,֞ᄝनޙ֥ׄAaBaEᇏ,ᆺႵᄝEׄҌ൞໗नޙׄ,ط֒๙ࠊளᅮੱᄝ(PA,PB)ᆭࡗѯൈ,༢ሹ߶ሱ߭֞໗नޙb൞,ೂݔ๙ࠊளᅮੱѯ֞(PA,PB)ᆭຓ,ေહԛགྷሧཋளᅮ(๙ᅮੱնႿPB),ေહԛགྷሧຽ෪(๙ᅮੱཬႿPA)bࣁವࠏܒ๙ݖؓሧᆀ֥ྐվҕა֞ഈඍ༢ᆭᇏ,ᄝಌكႵ৯֥ຓ҆ࡓܵބႄ֥֝౦ঃ༯,ሧ֥ཋঔᅦсಖႄఏྐվሧࣁ܂۳֥ཋঔᅦ,ၹՎࠊлބࡎ֥۬҂໗קಸၞႄᇁݖ؇֥ྐվঔᅦbྐվሧࣁ֥൬ၭބνಆྟ္ޓնӱ؇ഈ၇ঠႿః෮ᆦӻ֥ሧ֥ࡎᆴbطؓົࠊл໗ק֥ࠊлᆟҦটඪ,ӻ࿃ۚᅨ֥๙ࠊளᅮ൞აఃଢѓཌྷМ֥bၹՎ,ݖ؇ۚᅨ֥๙ࠊளᅮ,ੱсಖႄఏࠊл֒अ֥ۄყ,֒ࡎ۬ၹՎط༯יൈ,ሧࡎᆴ༯ࢆ,ࣁವࠏܒྐվሧӁ֥νಆྟ္൳֞ຯཽbطؓႿᄝ(PA,PB)ٓຶଽ֥ሧਈބࡎᆴ֥ѯ,൞ԛႿ၂ᇕሱؿ֥טࢫ,ၹՎ҂߶ؓࣁವࠏܒྐվሧӁ֥νಆྟᄯӮ႕ཙbॖ,၂۱ົӻކѯ๙ᅮੱ֥ࠊлᆟҦؓႿົӻ߁֥ሧބಒЌࣁವࠏܒྐվሧӁ֥νಆྟႵሢࠒ֥ࠞၩၬb()ࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ֥႕ཙࢤ༯ট,ૌॉҳࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ֥႕ཙbؓႿ၂۱ᄠൈaཬږ֥ᆞཟࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ,ႮႿՎൈ֥Ԋࠌ൞ᄠൈ֥,҂߶႕ཙሧᆀყ௹֥טᆜ,ط൞ᆰࢤ๙ࠊளᅮഈശ,ၹູP(DI)ཌીႵࠊлᆟҦ֥эਈ,ၹطࠊлԊࠌ֥ࢲݔ൞P(DI)ཌཟႷٚ၍֞P.(DI),ྍ֥नޙູׄ.ބE.,4bᆃᇕࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ֥ࢲݔ൞ਆٚ૫֥:ؓႿԩႿჰनޙׄAቐш֥ׄ(ᄝྍ֥A.Ⴗш),߶ڿэఃᄎਫ਼ࣥ,Ⴎཋཟቐຽ෪эູཟྍ໗नޙׄE.၍(ᆃ္ྸ൞ࠊлᆟҦ֥Ԛᇓ);طؓႿԩႿჰनޙׄBቐш֥(ׄᄝྍ֥B.֥Ⴗш),္߶ڿэఃᄎਫ਼ࣥ,Ⴎཟჰ໗नޙׄEᄎ,эູཟႷཋঔᅦbڵཟ֥ࠊлᆟҦԊࠌིݔაՎཌྷّbၹՎ,ᇅרࠊлᆟҦ֥భิ൞,сྶିሙಒ؎༢ჰট෮ԩ໊֥ᇂb
2005୍ֻ5௹ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קܱ༢ં 93 DI(P)აP(DI)౷ཌࠣᄎਫ਼ࣥ൞,ؓႿ၂۱ࢠնږ؇֥ࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ,ః႕ཙॖି൞ᇁଁ֥bೂ4ᇏ֥P..ބP...,֒ࠊлᆟҦ֥Ԋࠌቀܔն,P(DI)ཌ၍֞P..(DI)ࠇP...(DI),ఃࢲݔॖି҂թᄝ໗֥नޙ,طᆺႵ၂۱҂໗֥नޙ(A..ࠇB..)bၹՎ,ࠊлᆟҦ֥Ⴈൈ္сྶᇿၩൡ؇bطؓႿ၂۱Ⴅࣲྟ֥ࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ,ః႕ཙࡼ߶۷նbၹູႥࣲྟ֥ࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ,҂ࣇᆰࢤP(DI)ཌཟႷٚ၍,ൈႥࣲྟ֥ࠊлᆟҦԊࠌӾᄪ߶Фሧᆀܴҳ,֞Ֆطڿэሱ࠭ყ௹֥ྙӮٚൔbሧᆀ߶ᄝؓၛສྐ༏ٳ༅֥ࠎԤഈ,ࡆഈࠊлԊࠌ֥႕ཙ,ၹູ߶טۚؓ๙ࠊளᅮੱ֥ყ௹,ၹطDI(P)ཌ္߶ཟഈ၍bචᇗ၍֥ࢲݔ٢նਔࠊлԊࠌ֥ުݔ,ೂ5෮ൕb4 ᄠൈྟ֥ࠊлԊࠌ5 Ⴅࣲྟ֥ࠊлԊࠌႮഈॖ,ࠊлᆟҦэބࡎ֥۬҂໗קؓࣁವ໗ק֥႕ཙສສᄝႿӻ࿃֥๙ᅮაሧਈཌྷ,ၹູᆃུሧླေնਈ֥ྐվሧࣁᆦӻ,ၹطࠊлބࡎ֥۬҂໗קቋުႄؿྐႨ֥ݖ؇ঔᅦ,ՖطྙӮ҂໗ק֥۴ჷbᄝӻ࿃֥ࡎ۬ഈᅨᆭ,ުཟ֥ࠊлԊࠌࡎ۬ಖ༯י,ሧࡎᆴ༯ࢆ,ᆃࡼᆰࢤࣁವࠏܒ֥ྐվሧӁࠤखъᆴ,ԛ
10金融研究ሹ299௹གྷੀྟ໙,ีᆰᇀሧ҂ַᅏ,Еؿ҂໗קࠇᆀࣁವາࠏbֹٜӁྛြ൞၂۱ׅ֥২ሰbഈൗࡀ90୍ս,ರЧ҂Ӂࡎ֥۬ӻ࿃ۚᅨࣁವࠏܒཟ҂Ӂྛြؿ٢ਔնਈվॻ,ᆃུվॻᆦӻ֥ሧႻࡎ۬࿃ഈᅨb֒ರЧ০ႨࣁವᆟҦ൫ၝᇅӻ࿃ྴֹ֥ٜۚӁஞଐൈ,ٜӁࡎ۬ࠤख༯י,၂նఒြၹՎӁ,֤აֹٜӁྛြܱ৳֥ၿྛྐվሧӁъᆴ,ࠒਔնਈ֥҂ਅվॻ,ቋᇔ֝ᇁྸ؟ၿྛӁࠇФ࡙ѩ൬ܓb四a结 论Ֆࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗ק֥Ԋྟބ၂ᇁྟ࣮ᇏ,ૌु,֞ؽᆀᆭࡗ֥Ԋྟބ၂ᇁྟൌ࠽ഈ൞ൈթᄝ,֥ᆺ൞ᄝ҂֥౦ྙ༯,Ֆ҂֥࢘؇ট,ुіགྷ֤҂࣐ཌྷϠਔbֻ၂,ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קᆭࡗ֥Ԋྟ,ᇶေіགྷᄝ؋௹ଽbၹࣷᇹ໙ีࣁವࠏܒླေطᄹࡆࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ੀྟ܂۳,๙ӈᆺ൞၂ᇕ؋௹ྛ,ູՖط္ᆺॖିᄝ؋௹ଽᄹࡆ๙ࠊளᅮ֥৯bঃ,ࣁವࠏܒԛགྷੀྟ໙ีѩ҂၂קሹ൞ა๙ࠊளᅮ৯ൈԛགྷ,ၹطؽᆀᆭࡗ֥ᆃᇕԊྟऎႵ၂ק֥ಖྟbֻؽ,ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קᆭࡗ֥၂ᇁྟ,ᄝӉൈ௹ଽіགྷ֤۷ູૼཁbՖӉ௹ট,ुЌӻࠊл໗קႵ০ႿԷᄯࣜ࠶ބࣁವุ༢֥໗ᄎྛߌ,՜ࣉࣁವࠏܒބᆜ۱ࣁವุ༢֥໗ࡲؿᅚbࣁವุ༢Ӊ௹Ќӻ໗ࡲؿᅚ္Ⴕ০ႿЌӻࠊл໗ק܂۳,ൌགྷࠊл໗קbѩ,ؓႿ؋௹ଽູົࣁವ໗קطཟࣁವุ༢ิ܂ݖ֥ݖ؟ੀ,ྟࠊл֒अॖၛ๙ݖؓԊծീᄝӉ௹ଽჍၛ൬߭ࠇᆀࣉྛַཨb֒ಖఃభิ่ࡱ൞,ᄝᆃ۱Ӊൈ௹,႕ཙࣁವ҂໗ק֥ၹିܔཨԢbֻ,ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קᆭࡗ֥؋௹ԊྟބӉ௹၂ᇁྟ,ѩ҂ཌྷ؛bູົ၂ݓࣁವุ༢֥໗ק,؋௹ଽ,ೂݔࣁವࠏܒ֥ሧӁؓࡎ֥۬༯יࢠູૹۋ,ᄵсྶಸಧ၂קӱ؇֥๙ᅮੱഈശbՖӉ௹,ुᆺႵЌӻࠊл֥ࠎЧ໗ק,ҌႵ০ႿఒြކνஆವሧބႵ০Ⴟं߁ཨٮ,Ֆطࢆ֮ࣁವࠏܒ֥ڄགВ;ࠊл໗ק҂߶ఒြၹູࡎ۬ඣሙ֥նఏնઋᄥ൳ໃᄻၩਘ֥ാ,ՖطЌᅰࣁವࠏܒሧӁ֥νಆ;ࠊл໗קၩሢࢠ֥֮০ੱඣ,Ֆطࢆ֮ሧࣁ൧ӆഈ֥ཟ࿊ᄴބ֣֡ڄག,ࡆ఼ࣁವࠏܒ֥νಆྟbҕॉ໓ང112 Bergman,U1M1andJ1Hansen,(2002),/FinancialInstabilityandMonetaryPolicy:TheSwedishEvidence0,SverigesRiksbankWorkingPaperSeriesNO1137June1122 Bordo,M1D1andD1C1Wheelock,(1998),/PriceStabilityandFinancialStability:TheHistoricalRecord0,FederalRe-serveBankofSt1LouisReview,September/October1132 Bordo,M1D1,Dueker,M1J1andD1C1Wheelock,(2001),/AggregatePriceShocksandFinancialInstability:AHistor-icalAnalysis0,FederalReserveBankofSt1LouisWorkingPaperSeriesNo12000-005B,September1142 Bordo,M1D1,(2000),/SoundMoneyandSoundFinancialPolicy0,Paperpreparedfortheconference/AnnaSchwartz$
2005୍ֻ5௹ࣁವ໗קაࠊл໗קܱ༢ં 11ThePolicyInfluence0,April1152 Chant,J1,(2003),/FinancialStabilityasaPolicyGoal0,BankofCanadaTechnicalReportNo195,September1162 HerreroA1G1andPedrodelRo,(2003)/ImplicationsoftheDesignofMonetaryPolicyforFinancialStability0,EconomicsWorkingPaperArchiveatWUSTL,MacroeconomicsNo103040081172 Illing,M1(2003)/AReviewofNotableFinancial-StressEvents0BankofCanadaTechnicalReportNo195,September1182 IMF,(2004),GlobalFinancialStabilityReport,IMF:WashingtonD1C1192 Issing,O1,(2003),/MonetaryandFinancialStability:IsthereaTrade-off?0BIS,March11102 Kakes,J1andC1Ullersma,(2002),/Financialstabilityinlow-inflationenvironments0,BISPaperNo119,October11112 Lai,A1,(2003)/FinancialFragility:ASurveyoftheTheoreticalLiterature0,BankofCanadaTechnicalReportNo195,September11122 McCallumB1T1,(1994),/MonetaryPolicyRulesandFinancialStability0,NBERWorkingPaperSeriesNo14692,April11132 Schinasi,G1J1,(2003),/ResponsibilityofCentralBanksforStabilityinFinancialMarkets0,IMFWorkingPaper,WP/03/121,June11142 ӧӑ,/ᇅ؇ܒࡹᇌުӮູݓࣁವ໗קೈ0,5ഈݚᆣಊБ6200418113b1152 ԫഠ,॓/ರЧ-ஞଐࣜ࠶.֥࢝ࠣఓൕ0,5ࣜ࠶ൗࢸ61994103b1162 ؍ཬᐕ,/ࣁವ໗ק:ଢѓaݤၬࠣᇅ؇ॿࡏ0,5ࣁವൈБ620041917b1172 ؟ض҃aٮ༐غ5ޡܴࣜ࠶࿐6ֻੂϱᇏ໓ϱ,ᇏݓದն࿐ԛϱഠ1997୍10ᄅֻ1ϱb1182 ڰप໓,/ರЧࣜ࠶ක֥ଽຓၹٳ༅0,5ൗࢸࣜ࠶࣮61994102b1192 ࠎࣁቆᆮ,5ಆ౯ࣁವ໗קБۡ20036,ᇏݓࣁವԛϱഠ2003୍12ᄅֻ1ϱb1202 ᅵ࿒ဉ,/ંರЧ֥ၿྛؓ҂ਅᅏಃ֥ӁളМࣟބԩٚൔ0,5ರЧ໙ี࣮62003101b1212 ࣁ,5ࠊлࣁವ࿐6ֻඹϱᇏ໓ϱ,ᇏݓದն࿐ԛϱഠ1998୍8ᄅֻ1ϱb1222 ପگᨅ,/ᇏݓࣁವ໗ק֥ᇗေ0ྟ,5ݓ࠽ࣁವБ6200415124b1232 ሱ৯,5ّࣁವາࠏ6,ᇏݓҍᆟࣜ࠶ԛϱഠ1998୍6ᄅֻ1ϱb1242 ሱ৯,/ᄜࡓܵაࣁವླྀטࠏᇅ0,5ၿྛࡅ62004111b1252 ሱ৯,/ቋުվॻದध٤ቋުઙֆದ0,5ࣜ࠶ܴҳБ6200418130b1262 ຳ,֩5ࣁವາࠏ6ં,ࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠ2001୍11ᄅֻ1ϱb1272 ᒟࣣ,/ஞଐࣜ࠶֥ࣜဒބ࢝0,5ࣜસൗࢸ61994111b1282 ᅦݱתaഫ౩ऺ,/ರЧࣁವࠏܒӁ֥࢝აఓൕ0,5ሧંაൌ61995111b1292 ᅦྼ,5ࣁವധ߄aࣜ࠶ሇ݅აၿྛ໗ק࣮6,ࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠ2004୍9ᄅֻ၂ϱbAbstract:Whatinfactistherelationbetweenfinancialstabilityandmonetarystability?Thearticle,asafirststep,introducesthestudyonthisrelationbyoverseasacademics,,bybuildinganinvestment-inflationmodel,:financialstability,monetarystability,conflict;consistency,coordination(特约编辑:陆 磊)(校对:LN)
