2005쓪훐맺뺭볃톧쓪믡쳡붻싛컄?퇐뺿쇬폲ꎺ컀짺뺭볃톧? 튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄뺭볃톧럖컶*???샮열량†횣붭뮴?훐맺죋쏱듳톧뺭볃톧풺?쓏뺩듳톧뎤붭죽뷇훞뺭볃짧믡랢햹퇐뺿훐탄???솪쾵ퟷ헟ꎺ샮열량?솪쾵뗧뮰ꎺ(0)13770825937 춨톶뗘횷ꎺ놱뺩몣뗭쟸훐맘듥듳뷖59뫅 훐맺죋쏱듳톧 욷풰4뫅슥101쫒 샮열량 폊헾뇠싫ꎺ100872 뗧ퟓ폊볾ꎺnjulpf@; njulpf@ ? ∗ 놾컄뗄쮼슷쫇쫜쯯뮪ꆢ췵왍뗄웴랢뫳탎돉뗄ꎬ킴ퟷ맽돌훐폖뗃떽쇋볖솼뚨ꆢ킻횾뇳뗄냯훺ꎬ퓚듋뷷훂킻돀ꆣ컄훐뿉쓜듦퓚뗄쫨슩뫍듭컳뻹평ퟷ헟뢺퓰ꆣ
튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄뺭볃톧럖컶 햪 튪 놾컄쳡릩쇋튻룶폃폚움볛튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄럖컶뿲볜ꆣ컒쏇쫗쿈닻쫶쇋튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆떼훂ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ쳥훆탎돉뗄풭틲ꆣ좻뫳ꎬ컒쏇뗄럖컶뇭쏷ꎬꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ헢튻볤뷓뚨볛믺훆ꎬ춨뎣컞램쪹뮼헟뗄킧폃쮮욽듯떽횻듦퓚뗀뗂럧쿕뫍폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸쪱뗄듎폅쮮욽ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ컒쏇뻍튽쇆쳥훆룄룯쳡돶쇋쿠펦뗄헾닟붨틩ꆣ?맘볼듊 뗀뗂럧쿕 폐쿞퓰죎 튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆 튽쇆쳥훆룄룯 Abstract In this paper we develop a framework to appraise the policies concerning price controls of health service. Firstly, we analyze the link between price controls of health service and the formation of China’s health care system, in which underpaid doctors were compensated by excessive medicine fee and examination fee. Secondly, we argue that, in nature, the system is an indirect pricing mechanism and that this mechanism generally makes the level of utility of patients lower than the second best level of utility under moral hazard and limited liability. Finally, we provide some suggestions pertinent to the reform of China’s health care system. JEL Classification I18 D82 K23
튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄뺭볃톧럖컶 튻ꆢ떼퇔 컀짺럾컱쫇놣횤죋샠짺듦폫랢햹뗄믹놾믮뚯횮튻ꆣ컀짺럾컱볛룱뗄뿉돐쫜탔ꎨaffordabilityꎩ뫍튽쇆놣붡쮮욽뗄룟뗍ꎬ횱뷓뻶뚨쇋튻맺뻓쏱붡뾵쮮욽뗄룟뗍ꎬ뛸헢폖믡뛔룃맺뗄뺭볃짧믡랢햹닺짺훘듳펰쿬ꆣ탂훐맺돉솢뫳ꎬ컒맺헾뢮춨맽볓잿믹놾릫릲컀짺럾컱ꎬ닉폃뗍돉놾뗄튽쇆럾컱쳥훆뗈듫쪩ꎬ벫듳뗘랢햹쇋컒맺뗄튽쇆컀짺쫂튵ꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔살ꎬ캪쇋뷢뻶퓚튽쇆컀짺늿쏅돶쿖뗄훮뛠컊쳢ꎬ컒맺헾뢮뛔튽쇆쳥훆뷸탐쇋튻쾵쇐뗄룄룯ꆣ헢킩룄룯좷쪵웰떽쇋튻뚨뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ떫쫇늻뗃늻돐죏뗄쫇ꎬ쒿잰컒맺컀짺럾컱볛룱뗄뿉돐쫜탔뷏틔잰쿠뇈틑폐뷏듳럹뛈뗄쿂붵ꆣ샽죧ꎬ폐뗷닩쿔쪾ꎺ1993쓪ꎬ얩쏱뮼늡펦뻍헯뛸캴뻍헯싊캪%ꎻ1998쓪ꎬ룃뇈싊캪%ꎻ떽쇋2003쓪ꎬ퓲짏짽떽%ꆣ2003쓪얩쏱쓪죋뻹뒿쫕죫캪풪ꎬ뛸떱쓪돇쫐튽풺욽뻹쎿듎힡풺럑폃좴룟듯풪(쿘튽풺캪풪)ꎨ퇕붣ꆢ뫺쏻랢ꆢ훜뫳컄ꎬ2005ꎩꆣ좷쪵ꎬ캪뷢뻶튽쇆컀짺늿쏅퓚룄룯뾪럅돵웚돶쿖뗄컊쳢ꎬ뛸닉좡뗄헢킩듫쪩뗄쪵볊킧맻늢늻샭쿫ꎬꆰ짵훁튻킩뷢뻶컊쳢뗄랽램좴듸살룼뛠뗄컊쳢ꆱꎨ샮쇡ꎬ2005ꎩꆣ뇈죧ꎬ퓚ꆰ뾴늡쓑ꆢ힡풺쓑ꆢ쫖쫵쓑ꆱ헢룶ꆰ죽쓑ꆱ컊쳢짐캴뗃떽폐킧뷢뻶쪱ꎬ폖돶쿖쇋ꆰ튽쇆뿷쯰튩럑늹ꆢ싲튩쫜뿘볬퇩늹ꎬ훷튵쫜삧뢱튵늹ꆱ헢룶ꆰ죽늹ꆱ컊쳢ꎬ벴춨뎣쯹쮵뗄ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ쿖쿳ꆣ 뺡맜ꆰ죋뗄튻짺벸뫵쎻폐죎뫎튻룶랽쏦쿱튽쇆놣붡뗄쾡좱탔헢퇹튻룶믹놾뗄뺭볃컊쳢쓇퇹뿛죋탄쿒ꆱꎨ뿆뛻쓎뫍컌뫍ꎬ2003ꎬ뗚2튳ꎩꎬ떫쫇쒿잰컒맺뺭볃샭싛뷧짐캴뛔듋샠컊쳢룸폨ퟣ릻뗄훘쫓ꆣ퓚캪쫽늻뛠뗄뛔컒맺튽쇆쳥훆룄룯벰웤퓋탐ힴ뿶뷸탐짮죫럖컶뗄컄쿗훐ꎬ뻸듳늿럖퇐뺿맘힢뗄붹뗣뚼벯훐퓚튽쇆쳥훆룄룯뗄랽쿲ꆢ튽풺벰튽쇆믺릹뗄닺좨맘쾵뗷헻뗈뫪맛닣듎뗄컊쳢짏ꎬ뛸벫짙맘힢훮죧튽짺뫍늡죋횮볤뗄캯췐ꎭ듺샭맘쾵헢샠캢맛닣쏦짏뗄컊쳢ꆣ뫮헱룕뫍붯돐ꎨ2004ꎩ뗄퇐뺿쯤좻쳡떽쇋ꎬ튽뮼쮫랽탅쾢뗄퇏훘늻뛔돆탔믡뛔쮫랽뗄탐캪닺짺펰쿬ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ평폚쯻쏇뗄럖컶훷튪쫇캪쇋쮵쏷ꎬ뻶뚨튽풺뗄쯹폐좨톡퓱뗄틲쯘ꎬ틔벰늻춬뗄쯹폐좨낲업뛔뺭샭ꎨ튽짺ꎩ탐캪뗄펰쿬헢솽룶컊쳢ꎬ쯹틔퓚웤럖컶맽돌훐ꎬ튽뮼쮫랽뗄캯췐ꎭ듺샭맘쾵뛔튽짺춶탐캪뗄펰쿬늢늻쫇튻룶훘튪뗄컊쳢ꆣ뺡맜틑폐튻킩퇐뺿퓚캯췐ꎭ듺샭뿲볜훐쳖싛쇋ꎬ늻춬풼쫸쳵볾쿂뗄캯췐ꎭ듺샭맘쾵뛔듺샭죋춶탐캪뗄펰쿬1ꎬ좻뛸ꎬ뾼싇떽ꆰ컀짺늿쏅춬좷쪵춬웤쯻짧믡럾컱늿쏅닮뇰뫜듳ꆱꎨ뿆뛻쓎ꆢ컌뫍ꎬ2003ꎬ뗚39튳ꎩꎬ뛸쟒컒맺뗄튽짺뫍늡 1 닎볻죃ꎭ퇅뿋ꆤ삭럡뫍죃ꆤ쳝죴뛻ꎨ2004ꎩ뗄훸ퟷ훐뗄ꎭ뗄쓚죝ꆣ
죋뚼짭뒦튻룶쿠뛔쳘쫢뗄훆뛈뮷뺳횮훐ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚럖컶컒맺튽쇆쳥훆뗄퓋탐ힴ뿶쪱ꎬ죴늻볓쟸럖뻍볲떥뗘쳗폃튻킩쿖폐뗄퇐뺿뷡싛ꎬ뿉쓜뻍늻샻폚볓짮컒쏇뛔쿖쪵뗄샭뷢ꆣ 놾컄뗄쒿뗄뻍퓚폚ꎬ쳡릩튻룶쓜움볛튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄럖컶뿲볜ꆣ캪쇋듯떽헢튻쒿뇪ꎬ컒쏇틔삭럡뫍십뫕뗙쒦ꎨ㈰〲ꎩ퇐뺿랽램캪믹뒡ꎬ퓋폃뇪ힼ뗄캯췐ꎭ듺샭럖컶랽램첽쳖ꎬ떱춬쪱듦퓚튽뮼쮫랽뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆탔2ꆢ튽짺뷶돐떣폐쿞퓰죎뫍튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆3헢죽룶풼쫸쳵볾쪱ꎬ튽짺뗄죋솦놾춶탐캪믡폐쓄킩쳘헷ꎬ틔벰튽짺뗄죋솦놾춶탐캪뛔짧믡뢣샻뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇뗄럖컶뇭쏷ꎬꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ웤쪵뻍쫇ꎬ퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆쿂탎돉뗄튻룶볤뷓뚨볛믺훆ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ헢룶볤뷓뚨볛믺훆믡뛔튽짺ꎨ쫂잰뗄뫍쫂뫳뗄ꎩ죋솦놾춶닺짺늻샻뗄펰쿬ꎬ춨뎣믡틲듋뛸붵뗍뮼헟뗄뢣샻쮮욽ꆣ 놾컄뫳탸늿럖뗄쓚죝낲업죧쿂ꆣ퓚뗚뛾늿럖ꎬ컒쏇쫗쿈쳡릩쇋튻룶쓜뗃떽탅쾢늻뛔돆ꆢ폐쿞퓰죎뫍볛룱맜훆죽훘풼쫸쿂튽짺뗄듎폅얬솦뗄쒣탍ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ컒쏇닻쫶쇋ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ헢튻쳥훆탎돉뗄풭틲ꆣ춨맽췘햹뗚뛾늿럖뗄믹놾쒣탍ꎬ뗚죽늿럖퇐뺿쇋ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ헢튻볤뷓뚨볛믺훆뛔뮼헟뗄뢣샻쮮욽뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚뗚쯄늿럖ꎬ컒쏇ퟜ뷡쇋좫컄뗄쳖싛ꎬ늢횸돶쇋컄헂뗄늻ퟣ횮뒦벰뷸튻늽퇐뺿뗄랽쿲ꆣ 뛾ꆢ믹놾쒣탍 퓚놾늿럖훐ꎬ컒쏇쳡릩튻룶쓜뿌뮭탅쾢늻뛔돆ꆢ폐쿞퓰죎뫍볛룱맜훆죽훘풼쫸쿂튽짺뗄죋솦놾춶탐캪뗄쒣탍ꆣ4 쿂쏦뗄럖컶뇭쏷ꎬ떱듦퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆ꎬ쟒ퟮ룟쿞볛뗍폚뻹뫢볛룱쪱ꎬ죴볠맜믺릹컞램뛔튽짺쪩탐췪좫뗄볠뚽ꎬ퓲뇘뚨믡닺짺ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ뗄쿖쿳ꆣ헢뻍틢캶ퟅꎬ죧맻헾뢮쿫춨맽뷸튻늽뿘훆웤쯻쿠맘럑폃뗄쫕좡살붵뗍튽쇆럑폃ꎬ??쓇뻍믡쪹뗃튽짺뗄얬솦쮮욽욫샫듎폅쮮욽ꆣ뮻퇔횮ꎬ쓇붫믡쪹뮼헟뗄뢣샻쮮욽쿂붵ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ컒쏇뮹듓샭싛짏췆횪ꎬ벴뇣듦퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆ꎬ뮼헟떽룼뫃뗄튽풺뻍헯쪱ꎬ죔좻튪횧뢶룼룟뗄튽쇆럑폃ꆣ 2 튽뮼쮫랽뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆탔쫇튽쇆럾컱쳡릩맽돌훐뗄튻룶믹놾쳘헷ꎬ뛔듋쟫닎볻뿆뛻쓎뫍컌뫍ꎨ2003ꎩ뗚44ꎭ45튳뗄싛쫶ꎻ춬쪱ꎬ뿉닎볻뫮헱룕뫍붯돐ꎨ2004ꎩ뗄쏨쫶ꆣ 3 뛔폚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆헢튻쫂쪵ꎬ뿉틔듓맺볒랢햹볆뮮캯풱믡뫍컀짺늿폚2000쓪7퓂펡랢뗄ꆶ맘폚룄룯튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜샭뗄틢볻ꆷ훐랢쿖ꆣ룃ꆰ틢볻ꆱ쏷좷횸돶ꎬꆰ뛔럇펯샻탔튽쇆믺릹쳡릩뗄튽쇆럾컱쪵탐헾뢮횸떼볛튽쇆믺릹내헕볛룱훷맜늿쏅훆뚨뗄믹ힼ볛늢퓚웤뢡뚯랶캧쓚좷뚨놾떥캻뗄쪵볊튽쇆럾컱볛룱ꆣꆱ쇭췢ꎬ맺볒랢햹볆뮮캯풱믡ꆢ컀짺늿뫍맺볒훐튽튩맜샭뻖폚2000쓪10퓂펡랢뗄ꆶ좫맺튽쇆럾컱볛룱쿮쒿맦랶ꎨ쫔탐ꎩꆷ붫튽쇆럾컱럖캪ퟛ뫏럾컱샠ꆢ튽벼헯쇆샠ꆢ쇙뒲헯쇆샠뫍훐튽벰쏱ퟥ튽헯쇆샠뗈쯄듳샠뇰ꆣ뛸퓚룷쪡쫐쯹좷뚨뗄ꆰ튽쇆럾컱볛룱쿮쒿벰볛룱ꆱ훐ꎬ튽쇆쿮쒿짏뢡뗄랶캧튻냣뚼쫇쇙뒲헯쇆샠훐뗄쫖쫵쿮쒿ꎻ쪵탐ퟮ룟쿞볛뗄랶캧퓲냼삨ꎺퟛ뫏튽쇆럾컱샠ꆢ튽벼헯쇆샠ꆢ쇙뒲룷쾵춳헯쇆ꆢ뺭톪맜뷩죫헯쇆ꆢ컯샭훎쇆폫뾵뢴ꆢ훐튽벰쏱ퟥ튽헯쇆샠뗈쿮쒿ꆣ캪볲뮯럖컶ꎬ놾컄훐뗄 ꆰ튽쇆럾컱볛룱ꆱ룅횸튽컱죋풱뗄벼쫵샍컱볛룱ꎬ뛸늻냼삨웤쯻쿠맘럾컱뗄볛룱ꆣ 4?탨튪쮵쏷뗄쫇ꎬ놾컄쯹짨뚨뗄솽룶쒣탍ꎬ뚼쫇틔삭럡뫍십뫕뗙쒦ꎨ㈰〲ꎩ뗄훸ퟷ훐뗚컥헂샯뗄쒣탍캪믹뒡뗄ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ놾컄뗄럖컶늻뷶쫇쯻쏇쯹붨솢뗄럖컶뿲볜뗄튻룶펦폃ꎬ춬쪱뮹퓚쳘뚨뗄볙짨쳵볾쿂췘햹쇋쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뗃돶쇋튻킩쯻쏇쎻폐뇭듯맽뗄폐틢틥뗄뷡싛ꆣ 5 컒맺뗄튽쇆럾컱볠맜믺릹뻍뺭뎣냤늼듋샠램맦ꎬ떫쪵볊킧맻좷쪵늻뫃ꆣ
캪볲뮯웰볻ꎬ쒣탍훐횻냼몬튻룶듺뇭탔뗄뮼헟ꎨSꎩ뫍튻쏻튽짺ꎨMꎩꆣ튽짺캪뮼헟쳡릩헯뛏훎쇆뗈럾컱틔쪹웤뾵뢴ꆣ볙짨뻶뚨튽쇆럾컱ퟮ훕뷡맻뗄틲쯘폐ꎺ튽짺쿖폐뗄믹뒡횪쪶뫍믹놾벼쓜ꎨkꎩꎬ틔벰튽짺퓚헯뛏믮뚯훐뗄얬솦ꎨeꎩꆣ웤훐ꎬk훷튪좡뻶폚룶죋뗄�뢳벰웤쫂잰뗄죋솦놾춶ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔볙뚨횻폐튽짺좷쟐뗘횪뗀웤ퟔ짭뗄�뢳ꎬ틲듋쯼쫇튽짺뗄쮽죋탅쾢ꆣ뛸쫂잰뗄죋솦놾춶쫇횸ꎬ튽짺퓚ퟷ캪튽톧풺뗄톧짺쪱캪헆컕뇘놸뗄믹뒡횪쪶뫍믹놾벼쓜뛸춶죫뗄풴ꆣe퓲쫇튽짺퓚헯뛏뮼헟뗄늡쟩쪱쯹뢶돶뗄얬솦ꎬ쯼쫇튻훖쫂뫳뗄죋솦놾춶ꆣ쯹폐뗄죋솦놾춶뚼쫇늻뿉맛달뗄ꆣ쿔뛸틗볻ꎬ죴컞램맛달떽튽짺쫂잰뗄죋솦놾춶ꎬ뻍믡돶쿖쓦쿲톡퓱ꎻ뛸쫂뫳뗄죋솦놾춶뗄늻뿉맛달탔ꎬ퓲믡떼훂뗀뗂럧쿕뗄랢짺ꆣ횱맛짏ꎬ쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕뗄돶쿖ꎬ뚼믡쪹뗃튽짺뗄죋솦놾춶욫샫ퟮ폅쮮욽ꎬ뛸헢폖믡뛔뮼헟뗄킧폃닺짺뢺쏦펰쿬ꎬ듓뛸ퟮ훕펰쿬떽짧믡뢣샻쮮욽ꆣ 캪쟳볲뮯ꎬ컒쏇퓚놾늿럖볙짨ꎬ튽짺쿖폐뗄믹뒡횪쪶뫍믹놾벼쓜쫇룸뚨뗄ꎨ벴k=kꎩꎬ헢퇹뻍뿉틔벯훐맘힢ꎬ튽짺쫂뫳뗄죋솦놾춶뗄늻뿉맛달탔쯹닺짺뗄펰쿬ꆣ6 ퟷ캪캯췐죋뗄늡죋ꎬ춨맽튻뚨뗄횧뢶살벤샸튽짺캪웤훎쇆벲늡ꆣ캯췐죋듓훎쇆뷡맻q훐뗃떽뗄킧폃캪S(q)ꆣ웤훐ꎬS′>0ꎬS′′<0ꎬS(0)=0ꆣ쿖뷸튻늽볙짨ꎬ튽짺쯹쳡릩뗄튽쇆럾컱ퟮ뫳횻믡듸살솽룶뷡맻ꎺ벲늡뗃떽쇋폐킧훎쇆뫳늡죋뾵뢴ꎨqꎩꎬ틔벰늡쟩쎻폐뗃떽폐킧뿘훆ꎨqꎩꎬ쟒폐q>qꆣ늡죋듓헢솽룶뿉쓜뗄뷡맻훐쯹믱뗃뗄럖뇰캪S(q)=S뫍S(q)=Sꆣ퓚듋맽돌훐ꎬ뮼헟탨튪뛔튽짺뷸탐뗄횧뢶ꎨtꎩ평솽늿럖릹돉ꎺ튽짺뗄벼쫵샍컱볛룱ꎨ벴헯뛏럑폃ꎬ짨캪p1ꎩ뫍웤쯻뇘튪뗄횧돶ꎨ7벴튩럑ꆢ볬닩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃ꎬ짨캪p2ꎩꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬt=p1+p2ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ평폚듦퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆ꎬ틲듋헯뛏럑폃p1듦퓚튻룶볛룱짏쿞ꎨp1ꎩꎬ벴0<p1≤p1ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ튩럑뫍볬닩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃p2늻쫜맜훆ꎬ웤룟뗍평튽짺ퟔ탐좷뚨ꆣ8 볙뚨쯹폐닎폫죋뗄킧폃몯쫽뚼쫇럫ꆤ억틁싼ꎭ쒦룹쮹첹뛷킧폃몯쫽ꎬ 6 컒쏇ퟶ헢퇹튻룶볙짨ꎬ횻쫇캪쇋쿞뚨놾늿럖뗄럖컶랶캧ꎬ뛸늻쫇틲캪튽쇆럾컱훐뗄쓦쿲톡퓱컊쳢늻훘튪ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ튽쇆럾컱훐뗄쓦쿲톡퓱컊쳢튲럇뎣훘튪ꆣ췴뚡뚡퓚ꆰ훐맺죋뗄붹싇ꆢ늻탅죎룐폫ꆮ쓻쏊풭샭ꆯꆱ튻컄훐틔뷏캪잳쿔뗄폯퇔쳖싛쇋쓦쿲톡퓱컊쳢ꆣ쿪볻ꆶ닆뺭ꆷꎬ2005쓪뗚6웚뗚98-99튳ꆣ 7 뺡맜볠맜믺릹잿뗷ꎬ죎뫎튽쇆믺릹뚼늻뗃쿞훆뻍헯죋풱돖뒦랽떽웤쯻튽쇆믺릹뫍쇣쫛튩뗪릺튩ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ늻폃늡죋ퟔ듸튩욷틑돉캪컒맺튽풺뗄튻룶맟샽ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ룷튽풺뗄볬퇩떥튲쫇뮥늻춨폃뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇볙짨튩럑뫍볬퇩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃평뻍헯튽짺쫕좡ꎬ헢쫇뛔쿖쪵뗄뫏샭돩쿳ꆣ 8 쯤좻맺볒랢햹룄룯캯풱믡뫍컀짺늿튻퓙잿뗷튪볓잿튽튩볛룱볠뚽틔복쟡짧믡튽튩뢺떣ꎬ떫쫇평폚퓚볠맜믺릹폫튽풺ꎨ튽짺ꎩ횮볤듦퓚럇뎣잿뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆탔ꎬ볠맜믺릹벸뫵컞램에뛏튽짺뾪뻟뗄뒦랽쫇럱캥랴쇋맦뚨ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ퓚볠맜믺릹맦뚨늿럖튩욷뇘탫붵볛횮뫳ꎬ쇙뒲쪹폃짏붵볛튩뻍믡훰붥놻룷샠룄춷뮻쏦뗄룟볛ꆰ탂튩ꆱ쯹좡듺ꎻ춬쪱ꎬ룷훖쏻쒿랱뛠뗄탂쿮쒿ꆢ탂벼쫵ꆢ탂틇웷ꆢ탂닄쇏튲믡늻뛏펦폃폚쇙뒲ꎬ틔맦
벴뚼뻟폐볓탔뿉럖뗄탔훊ꆣ짨늡죋뗄킧폃몯쫽캪V(q,t)ꎬ쟒폐V(q,t)=S(q)−tꆣ튽짺뗄킧폃몯쫽U(e,t)=u(t)−y(e)ꎬ웤훐u(t)쫇튽짺듓틆횧뢶t훐쯹믱뗃뗄킧폃ꎬ늢폐u′>0ꎬu′′<0ꎻy(e)캪얬솦e듸룸튽짺뗄뢺킧폃ꎬ쯼뛔e쫇뗝퓶뗄춹몯쫽ꎬ벴y′>0ꎬy′′>0ꎬ쟒폐y(0)=0ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ캪쇋놣횤뫳쏦짨뚨뗄쒣탍ퟜ폐쓚뗣뷢ꎬ컒쏇볙짨떾쳯쳵볾ꎨInada conditionꎩy′(0)=0뫍y′′(1)=+∞뚼쓜뗃떽싺ퟣꆣ퓚놾늿럖뗄럖컶훐ꎬ컒쏇볙짨튽짺뗄얬솦쮮욽쫇솬탸뗄쟒짨e∈[0,1]ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ튽짺뗄얬솦뛔폚훎쇆뷡맻뗄쯦믺펰쿬뇭쿖캪룅싊럖늼Pr(q%=q|e)=p(e)ꆣ뷸튻늽뗘ꎬ볙짨뛔폚쯹폐뗄e∈[0,1]뚼폐p(e)=eꎬ벴튽짺뗄얬솦쮮욽뻍뇭쪾벲늡뗃떽폐킧훎쇆헢튻뷡맻돶쿖뗄룅싊ꆣ?평폚늡죋컞램맛닢떽튽짺뗄얬솦쮮욽ꎬ틲듋늡죋횻쓜룹뻝뿉틔맛닢떽뫍뿉틔퇩횤뗄훎쇆뷡맻쳡릩튻룶벤샸뫏풼ꎬ벴튻룶붫튽짺쯹믱뗃틆횧뢶폫쯦믺뗄훎쇆뷡맻솪쾵웰살뗄몯쫽{t(q%)}ꆣ틲캪볙뚨횻폐솽훖뿉쓜뗄훎쇆뷡맻q뫍qꎬ폚쫇뿉틔뗈볛뗘붫룃뫏풼뇭쪾캪튻뛔틆횧뢶t뫍tꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ떱ퟮ훕뗄훎쇆뷡맻캪qꎨ믲qꎩ쪱ꎬ튽짺뗃떽뗄틆횧뢶캪tꎨ믲tꎩꆣ 쿖퓚ꎬ뾼싇튻룶럧쿕훐탔뗄튽짺ꎬ쯻뗄돵쪼닆뢻캪쇣ꎬ쟒쫜떽폐쿞퓰죎뗄놣뮤ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ t≥0 ꎨ1ꎩ 뫍 t≥0 ꎨ2ꎩ 춬쪱ꎬ쏦뛔벤샸뫏풼{(t,t)}ꎬ튽짺믡톡퓱튻룶얬솦쮮욽eꎬ틔쪹뗃ꎺ e=argmaxe%t+(1−e%)t−y(e) ꎨ3ꎩ e%∈[0,1]쿔좻ꎬ튽짺뗄쒿뇪몯쫽쫇퇏룱낼뗄ꎬ틲듋뿉틔폃쿂쇐튻뷗돤튪쳵볾살쳦듺쪽ꎨ3ꎩ쯹뇭쪾뗄벤샸풼쫸ꎺ t−t=y′(e) ꎨ4ꎩ 쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ럧쿕훐탔뗄늡죋뗄웚췻킧폃뿉틔킴돉ꎬ 뇜볠맜믺릹뛔튽쇆볬퇩럑폃뗄맜훆ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇퓚듋볙뚨튩럑뫍볬퇩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃평튽짺ퟔ탐좷뚨ꎬ튲쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ
EV(q,t)=eS(q)−t+(1−e)S(q)−t ꎨ5ꎩ 폚쫇ꎬퟷ캪캯췐죋뗄늡죋뗄ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢(P)뻍쫇ꎺ (P)ꎺ maxEV=eS+(1−e)S−et−(1−e)t {(e,t,t)} . 쪽ꎨ1ꎩꎬ쪽ꎨ2ꎩ뫍쪽ꎨ4ꎩ 틗횪ꎬ폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸쪽ꎨ1ꎩ쫇뷴뗄ꎬ뛸쪽ꎨ2ꎩ쫇쯉돚뗄ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬt=0ꎬ뛸t>0ꆣ룹뻝쪽ꎨ4ꎩꎬ뿉틔폃y′(e)쳦듺늡죋뗄쒿뇪몯쫽훐뗄tꆣ폚쫇ꎬ늡죋뗄ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢(P)뻍쓜볲뮯캪(P′)ꎺ (P′)ꎺ maxEV=eS+(1−e)S−ey′(e) e∈[0,1]뷸튻늽볙짨y′′′>0ꎬ헢퇹늡죋뗄쒿뇪몯쫽뛔e뻍쫇퇏룱낼뗄ꆣ횱뷓쟳뷢ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢(P′)ꎬ뻍뿉틔뗃떽ꎬ S−S=ySBS ′(e)+eBy′′(eSB) ꎨ6ꎩ 웤훐ꎬSBe캪듦퓚뗀뗂럧쿕뫍폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸쪱튽짺뗄듎폅얬솦쮮욽ꆣ뫜쏷쿔뗘ꎬSBe평쪽ꎨ6ꎩ캨튻좷뚨ꆣ듋쪱ꎬ컒쏇뫜죝틗횤쏷ꎬ헢튻듎폅뗄얬솦쮮욽튻뚨믡뗍폚ퟮ폅뗄얬솦쮮욽∗eꎨ쯼평뗈쪽S−S=y∗′(e)캨튻좷뚨ꎩꆣ9 퓚얬솦뗄뢺킧폃몯쫽y(e)캪떥뗷몯쫽뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ떱쪽ꎨ6ꎩ좷뚨e뗄횵캪SBe쪱ꎬ컒쏇튲뻍뿉틔좷뚨t뗄횵ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ떱듦퓚뗀뗂럧쿕뫍폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸쪱ꎬ캪뗃떽튽짺뗄튽쇆럾컱ꎬ늡죋쯹횧돶뗄틆횧뢶캪SBSBt=y′(e) ꆣ횻튪S(•)뫍y(•)쫇룸뚨뗄ꎬ퓲SBt뻍쫇좷뚨뗄ꎬ쯼늻믡쯦웤쯻죎뫎틲쯘뗄뇤뚯뛸뇤뚯ꆣ헢뇭쏷ꎬ퓚듦퓚뗀뗂럧쿕뫍폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸쪱ꎬ죴튪믱뗃뛔늡죋ퟮ폐샻뗄튽쇆럾컱ꎬ뻍뇘탫튪뛔튽짺뷸탐쫽뛮캪SBt뗄틆횧뢶ꆣ쏷냗헢튻뗣횮뫳ꎬ컒쏇퓙살뾼달튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄ퟷ폃벰뫳맻ꆣ 죧잰쯹쫶ꎬ뮼헟탨튪뛔튽짺뗄횧뢶평솽늿럖릹돉ꎺ튽짺뗄벼쫵샍컱볛룱뫍웤쯻뇘튪뗄횧돶ꎬ벴t=p1+p2ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚늻듦퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆쪱ꎬ뻍튻뚨믡 9 평폚컒쏇맘힢뗄붹뗣늢늻퓚폚뇈뷏SBe폫∗e뗄듳킡벰웤탎돉뗄풭틲ꎬ틲듋늻뛔헢튻컊쳢쿪볓쳖싛ꆣ삭럡뫍십뫕뗙쒦ꎨ2002ꎩ뗄훸ퟷ훐뗄뛔듋폐쿪쾸뗄닻쫶ꆣ
폐SB=SB+SBtp1p2ꎬ웤훐pSB1캪튽짺쯹쳡릩뗄튽쇆럾컱뗄쫐뎡볛룱ꎨ벴뻹뫢뗄헯뛏럑폃ꎩꎬ뛸pSB2퓲캪뻹뫢뗄튩럑ꆢ볬퇩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃ꆣ듓쇭튻뷇뛈뷸탐럖컶ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔뗃떽ꎺ 쏼쳢1 죴0<p≤p<pSB111ꎬ퓲pˆ=SB−>SBSBSB2tp1t−p1=p2ꆣ?헢튻쏼쳢쫇쿠떱횱맛뗄ꆣ쯼뇭쪾떱듦퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆ꎨ벴0<p1≤p1ꎩꎬ쟒ퟮ룟쿞볛뗍폚뻹뫢볛룱ꎨ벴p<pSB11ꎩ쪱ꎬ캪쇋벤샸튽짺쳡릩듎폅뗄튽쇆럾컱ꎬ뻍뇘탫튪뛔웤횧뢶룟폚쫐뎡뻹뫢쮮욽뗄ꎨ냼삨튩럑뫍볬퇩럑퓚쓚뗄ꎩ웤쯻쿠맘럑폃ꆣ뛸컒맺뗄튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆폐튻룶ퟮ믹놾뗄쳘헷ꎬ뻍쫇뛔튽짺쳡릩뗄튽쇆럾컱뚨볛퇏훘뗍폚웤뻹뫢볛룱ꆣ10 틲듋ꎬ퓚ꆰ튽튩늻럖볒ꆱꆢ룷튽풺뗄볬퇩떥뮥늻춨폃뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뛸쟒튽짺폖뇈볠맜믺릹룼뻟탅쾢폅쫆쪱ꎬꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ뻍쫇뇘좻뗄톡퓱ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ쿖쪵훐ꆰ탩룟ꆱ뗄튩럑ꆢ볬퇩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃ꎬ뻍쫇퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆쿂릫훚캪믱뗃뫏틢뗄튽쇆럾컱뛸늻뗃늻뢶돶뗄듺볛ꆣ듓헢튻뷇뛈뾴ꎬ쏼쳢튻뛔ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ헢튻쿖쿳룸돶쇋뫏뫵싟벭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬ뾼달쪽ꎨ6ꎩꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ퓚y(•)룸뚨뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬS−S=∆S풽듳ꎬSBe뻍풽듳ꆣ평SBt뗄좷뚨맦퓲뿉횪ꎬSBe풽듳ꎬSBt뻍풽듳ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔뗃떽튻룶뿉릩횤캱뗄볙쮵ꎺ 췆싛1 떱y(•)룸뚨쪱ꎬ죴튪쪹∆S퓶볓ꎬ퓲뇘탫튪쳡룟SBtꆣ?쪵볊짏ꎬ췆싛1룺컒쏇뗄횱뻵쫇쿠럻뫏뗄ꆣ평폚∆S뇭쪾뗄쫇늡죋듓솽룶뿉쓜뗄뷡맻훐쯹믱뗃뗄킧폃횮닮ꆣ뛸룹뻝S(•)뗄떥뗷탔ꎬ틔벰훎쇆뷡맻뗄럖늼몯쫽p(•)뗄뚨틥뫍탔훊ꎬ뻍뿉틔췆횪ꎬ퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆쿂ꎬ죴늡죋튪믱뗃룼뫃튽풺샯튽짺뗄튽쇆럾컱ꎬ틔쳡룟벲늡뗃떽폐킧훎쇆뗄룅싊ꎬ뻍뇘탫튪퓶볓웤뛔튽짺뗄틆횧뢶ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ벶뇰풽룟뗄튽풺훐뗄튽짺ꎬ쓜룼뫃뗘헯뛏늡죋뗄늡쟩ꎬ틲듋뻍뿉틔쳡룟벲늡뗃떽폐킧훎쇆뗄룅싊ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ듓샭싛싟벭짏붲ꎬ춬튻룶늡죋죴톡퓱떽벶뇰풽룟뗄튽풺뻍헯ꎬ뻍펦룃횧뢶뗃룼뛠ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬꆶ㈰〳쓪훐맺컀짺쫂튵랢햹춳볆릫놨ꆷ훐뗄춳볆쫽뻝뇭쏷ꎬ퓚㈰〳쓪ꎬ컀짺늿쫴ퟛ뫏튽풺쏅헯늡죋죋뻹튽쇆럑캪㈲㌮?풪ꎬ웤훐튩럑캪ㄲ㠮?풪ꎻ쪡쫴ퟛ뫏튽풺캪죋뻹튽쇆럑캪ㄶ㐮?풪ꎬ웤훐튩럑캪㤲⸵풪ꎻ쪡쾽쫐쫴ퟛ뫏튽풺죋뻹튽쇆럑캪ㄱ㘮?풪ꎬ웤훐튩럑캪㘴⸷풪ꎻ뗘쾽쫐쫴ퟛ뫏튽풺죋뻹튽쇆럑캪㤰⸳풪ꎬ웤훐튩럑캪㐸⸵ 10 뺡맜쒿잰짐늻듦퓚뺺헹탔뗄튽쇆럾컱쫐뎡ꎬ떫쫇컒쏇뿉틔춨맽뇈뷏뷓쫜쇋쿠춬뷌폽쓪쿞뗄튽짺폫웤쯻뺺헹탔탐튵듓튵죋풱뗄쏻틥릤살믱뗃헢튻죏쪶ꆣ
풪ꎻ뛸쿘쫴ퟛ뫏튽풺죋뻹튽쇆럑캪㘸⸶풪ꎬ웤훐튩럑캪㌵⸱풪ꆣ듓헢킩쫽뻝훐ꎬ컒쏇랢쿖ꎬ좷쪵듦퓚ꆰ튽풺벶뇰풽룟ꎬ늡죋튽쇆럑폃뻍풽룟ꆱ뗄쿖쿳ꆣㄱ???죽ꆢ쒣탍뗄췘햹?퓚짏튻늿럖훐ꎬ컒쏇퓋폃뇪ힼ뗄캯췐ꎭ듺샭럖컶랽램닻쫶쇋ꎬꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ헢튻쳥훆탎돉뗄풭틲ꆣ럖컶뇭쏷ꎬ튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆떼훂쇋ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ쳥훆뗄탎돉ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆쿂ꎬꆰ탩룟ꆱ뗄튩럑ꆢ볬퇩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃쫇ꎬ릫훚캪믱뗃뫏틢뗄튽쇆럾컱뛸뇘탫뢶돶뗄듺볛ꆣ틲듋ꎬ죴늻쓜좷뚨ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ쳥훆쫇럱믡퓬돉뢣샻쯰쪧ꎬ컒쏇뻍컞램에뛏헢튻쳥훆쫇럱탨튪룄룯ꆣ뮻퇔횮ꎬ죧맻붫웤쯻쿠맘럑폃뗄ꆰ탩룟ꆱ뛔놻맜훆뗄튽쇆럾컱볛룱뗄ꆰ늹쳹ꆱ쫓캪튻훖볤뷓뚨볛믺훆ꎬ쓇쎴컒쏇뻍탨튪붫헢튻볤뷓뚨볛믺훆폫ퟷ캪튻룶닎헕쾵쇐뗄횱뷓뚨볛믺훆쿠뇈뷏ꎬ듓뛸뗃돶쫇럱탨튪룄룯헢튻쳥훆뗄뷡싛ꆣ뷓쿂살ꎬ컒쏇붫짏쏦뗄쒣탍볓틔췘햹ꎬ틔첽쳖퓚듋쳥훆쿂튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄펰쿬ꆣ?쿖퓚붫튽짺퓚헯뛏믮뚯훐뗄얬솦ꎨeꎩ럖캪솽늿럖ꎺ떥뒿샻폃웤쯹헆컕뗄튽쇆벼쫵헯뛏늡쟩뗄얬솦ꎨe1ꎩ뫍뷨훺볬퇩벼쫵뷸탐헯뛏틔벰뾪뻟쇆킧ퟮ병ꎨ뛸럇볛룱ퟮ룟ꎩ뗄튩욷뗄얬솦ꎨe2ꎩꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ튽짺튪캪늡죋횴탐솽룶죎컱ꎬ웤퓚룷룶죎컱짏쯹뢶돶뗄얬솦럖뇰캪e1뫍e2ꆣ캪볲떥웰볻ꎬ볙뚨뛔폚늡죋뛸퇔ꎬ헢솽쿮죎컱쫇췪좫뛔돆뗄ꆣ룷쿮죎컱듸살뗄쯦믺훎쇆뷡맻ꎨq뫍qꎩꎬ뛔늡죋킧폃뗄펰쿬쫇쿠춬뗄ꆣ벴ꎬ뛔i=1,2ꎬ뚼폐Si=S믲헟Sꆣ뷸튻늽뗘ꎬ볙짨Si뗄럖늼쫇뛀솢뗄ꎬ쿠펦뗄룅싊럖뇰캪p1(e)뫍p(e2)ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ뛔폚ퟷ캪캯췐죋뗄늡죋뛸퇔ꎬ횻믡뗃떽죽훖뿉쓜뗄뷡맻ꎺ헯뛏ힼ좷쟒튩럑뫍볬퇩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃튲쫇ퟮ뗍뗄ꎨ2Sꎩꎻ헯뛏ힼ좷떫쿠맘럑폃늢럇ퟮ뗍ꎬ믲헟헯뛏늻쫇뫜ힼ좷떫쿠맘횧돶쫇ퟮ뗍뗄ꎨS+Sꎩꎻ헯뛏늻ힼ좷쟒쿠맘횧돶늢럇ퟮ뗍ꎨ2Sꎩꆣ폚쫇ꎬ폫횮쿠뛔펦뗄벤샸뫏풼뻍캪{(T,ˆT,T)}ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ떱헯뛏ힼ좷쟒쿠맘럑폃튲쫇ퟮ뗍쪱ꎬ뻍횧뢶Tꎻ떱헯뛏ힼ좷떫쿠맘럑폃늢럇ퟮ뗍ꎨ믲헟헯뛏늻쫇뫜ힼ좷떫쿠맘횧돶ퟮ뗍ꎩ쪱ꎬ뻍횧뢶Tˆꎻ떱헯뛏늻ힼ좷쟒쿠맘횧돶늢럇ퟮ뗍쪱ꎬ뻍횧뢶Tꆣ 11 뺡맜늻쓜업돽튽풺벶뇰풽룟ꎬ쯼쯹뷓쫜뗄늡죋뗄늡쟩뿉쓜믡풽뢴퓓헢훖쟩뿶ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ평폚컒쏇퓚헢샯뇈뷏뗄쫇룷샠튽풺뗄쏅헯늡죋뗄죋뻹튽쇆럑뫍튩럑ꎬ틲듋늡쟩랽쏦뗄닮틬ꎬ펦룃늻믡듳떽ퟣ틔펰쿬짏쫶뷡싛폐킧탔뗄뗘늽ꆣ
퓚놾늿럖뗄럖컶훐ꎬ볙짨튽짺퓚룷쿮죎컱짏뗄얬솦횻좡솽룶뿉쓜뗄횵ꎬ늢붫웤뇪ힼ뮯캪ie∈{0,1}(i=1,2)ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔볙짨ꎬp1뇭쪾튽짺뢶돶쮮욽캪1뗄얬솦뛸쪵쿖qꎨ뷸뛸쪹늡죋믱뗃킧폃Sꎩ뗄룅싊ꎻp0퓲뇭쪾튽짺늻ퟶ돶죎뫎얬솦뛸쪵쿖qꎨ뷸뛸쪹늡죋믱뗃킧폃Sꎩ뗄룅싊ꆣ12 쿔좻ꎬ튻뚨믡폐p1>p0ꆣ힢틢떽잰쏦쯹짨뚨뗄뛔돆탔ꎬ튽짺쯹뢶돶뗄ퟜ얬솦쮮욽횻폐죽룶뿉쓜뗄좡횵ꎺ볈뺡솦헯뛏늡쟩폖솦춼쪹늡죋뗄웤쯻쿠맘횧돶ퟮ킡뮯ꎻ튪쎴쫇뺡솦헯뛏늡쟩ꎬ튪쎴쫇솦춼쪹쿠맘럑폃ퟮ킡뮯ꎻ볈늻뺡솦헯뛏늡쟩ꎬ폖늻쪹쿠맘럑폃ퟮ킡뮯ꆣ헢죽훖ퟜ얬솦쮮욽듸룸튽짺뗄뢺킧폃럖뇰폃y2ꎬy1뫍y0살뇭쪾ꆣ쿔좻ꎬ튻뚨믡폐y2>y1>y0=0ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ듓놾훊짏붲ꎬ뺡솦헯뛏늡쟩폫쪹웤쯻쿠맘럑폃ퟮ킡뮯헢솽쿮죎컱쫇뮥늹뗄ꎬ틲듋뻍폐y2<2y1ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ떱튽짺룼ힼ좷뗘헯뛏돶늡죋뗄늡쟩뫳ꎬ쯻뻍늻뇘뷨훺웤쯻볬퇩벼쫵뷸탐헯뛏ꎬ뛸쟒튲쓜룼죝틗뗘뾪뻟쇆킧ퟮ뫃ꎨ쟒럑폃ퟮ뗍뗄ꎩ튩욷ꆣ 쿂쏦컒쏇뾼싇튽짺뗄솽훖얬솦뚼쫇늻뿉맛닢뗄ꎬ쟒럧쿕훐탔뗄튽짺뮹쫜떽폐쿞퓰죎뗄놣뮤헢튻쟩탎ꆣ쿔좻ꎬ죴늡죋쿫벤샸튽짺퓚솽쿮죎컱짏뚼뢶돶룟쮮욽뗄얬솦ꎬ퓲뛔폚늡죋뛸퇔ퟮ폅뗄벤샸뫏풼뻍쫇ꎺ떱쟒뷶떱q1%=q2%=q쪱ꎬ뛔튽짺뷸탐쫽뛮캪T(ˆ>T=T=0)뗄횧뢶ꆣ럀횹튽짺늻뢶돶죎뫎얬솦뗄좫뻖벤샸풼쫸캪ꎺ p2−y≥p2 1T20T ꎨ7ꎩ 럀횹튽짺횻퓚튻쿮죎컱짏뢶돶룟쮮욽얬솦뗄뻖늿벤샸풼쫸캪ꎺ p2 1T−y2≥p1p0T−y1 ꎨ8ꎩ 평폚솽쿮죎컱쫇뮥늹뗄ꎬ틲듋뛔폚쿫튪믱뗃튽짺솽랽쏦얬솦뗄늡죋뛸퇔ꎬ쪽ꎨ7ꎩ뇭쪾뗄좫뻖벤샸풼쫸쫇뷴뗄ꆣ폚쫇ꎬ평쪽ꎨ7ꎩ뫍쪽ꎨ8ꎩꎬ늢뷡뫏y2<2y1ꎬ뿉뗃ꎬ 1−yyy T≥mayx21,22= ꎨ9ꎩ ∆pp1p1+p0∆p(p1+p0)웤훐ꎬ∆p=p1−p0ꆣ컒쏇힢틢떽ꎬ쪽ꎨ9ꎩ뗄폒뇟뿏뚨쫇듳폚쇣뗄ꎬ틲듋횻튪듋쪽돉솢ꎬ퓲폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸뇘뚨쓜뗃떽싺ퟣꆣ폚쫇ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔붫늡죋뗄ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢 12 쿔좻ꎬ헢쫇튻룶뫜잿뗄볙짨ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔붫웤샭뷢돉튽짺퓚솽쿮죎컱짏뚼늻퓵쎴얬솦ꎬ떫춨맽죃늡죋돐떣쿠떱룟뗄볬퇩럑뫍튩럑살훎쇆벲늡헢훖쟩탎ꆣ
(P′′)킴돉ꎺ (P′′)ꎺ maxp221(S−T)+2p1(−p1)(S+)+2(1−p1)S {T} . 쪽ꎨ9ꎩ 쿔좻ꎬ죴튪쟳뗃(P′′)뗄ퟮ폅횵ꎬ퓲뇘좻튪쟳쪽ꎨ9ꎩ쯹뇭쪾뗄풼쫸쫇뷴뗄ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔뻍뗃떽ꎬ벤샸튽짺퓚솽쿮죎컱짏뚼뢶돶룟쮮욽얬솦뛸뇘탫뮨럑뗄듎폅2돉놾캪CSBp1y=22ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔폚늡죋뛸퇔ꎬ춬쪱벤샸솽쿮죎컱짏뚼폐튻∆p(p1+p0)룶룟쮮욽얬솦뗄뺻킧폃뻍쫇ꎺ 2Sp1yVB=2pS+1−p2 2(1(1)S)− ꎨ10ꎩ ∆p(p1+p0)쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ죴늡죋횻쓜벤샸튽짺퓚쒳튻쿮죎컱짏뗄얬솦ꎨ뇈죧ꎬ늡죋퓚늻쓜횧뢶뷏룟뗄헯뛏럑폃ꎬ틔믱뗃튽짺뗄ힼ좷헯뛏쪱ꎬ쯻뻍횻쓜닉좡냬램벤샸튽짺틔ퟮ뗍뗄웤쯻쿠맘럑폃훎뫃벲늡ꎩꎬ퓲쯻믡톡퓱튻룶벤샸뫏풼틔ퟮ듳뮯웤킧폃ꆣ볙짨늡죋횻쓜벤샸e2ꎬ쓇쎴쯻뻍믡톡퓱쿂쇐벤샸뫏풼ꎺ떱쟒뷶떱q%2=q쪱ꎬ뛔튽짺뷸탐쫽뛮캪Tˆ=y1∆p뗄틆횧뢶ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ뷶쓜퓚쒳튻쿮죎컱짏쪵쪩벤샸뗄듎폅돉놾뻍쫇CSBp1y11=ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔폚늡죋뛸퇔ꎬ뷶쓜벤샸쒳튻쿮죎컱짏뗄얬솦뗄뺻킧폃∆p뻍쫇ꎺ p−−1y VSB=pS+(−p)S+pS+(1p)S111100 ꎨ11ꎩ ∆p뇈뷏VSB2폫VSB1뗄듳킡ꎬ뻍뿉틔틽돶쏼쳢2ꎨ횤쏷볻뢽슼ꎩꎺ 쏼쳢2 떱p1y≤∆S쪱ꎬ뻍폐VSB2>VSB1ꆣ?p2−p2110헢뇭쏷ꎬ떱늡죋듓솽룶뿉쓜뗄훎쇆뷡맻훐믱뗃뗄킧폃횮닮ꎨ∆Sꎩꎬ듳폚튽짺뢶돶튻훖얬솦쯹듸룸쯻뗄뢺킧폃ꎨpy1ꎩ뗄튻룶놶쫽ꎨ1ꎩ쪱ꎬ횻쓜벤샸튽p2−p210짺퓚쒳튻쿮죎컱짏뢶돶얬솦뗄쳥훆믡쯰몦뮼헟뗄뢣샻ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ평폚뮼헟듓늻춬뗄훎쇆뷡맻훐쯹믱뗃뗄킧폃횮닮믹놾짏뚼뫜듳ꎬ뛸퓚쳡릩튽쇆럾컱뗄맽돌훐ꎬ튽짺횻뢶돶튻훖얬솦쪱쯻쯹돐떣뗄뢺킧폃춨뎣뚼뇈뷏킡ꎬ틲듋헢튻쏼쳢뻍뻟폐뫜
잿뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣㄳ?튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ퓚쿖쪵훐ꎬ컒쏇쯹엶떽뗄믹놾짏뚼쫇쏼쳢?쯹쏨쫶뗄헢훖쟩탎ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ퓚쒿잰뗄튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆쿂ꎬ늡죋틑좻틢쪶떽ꎬ죴펲탔뗘ퟱ톭폐맘맦뚨ꎬ뛸늻뛔튽짺헯뛏늡쟩뗄얬솦뷸탐벤샸ꎬ떥욾횧뢶룼룟뗄볬퇩럑뫍튩럑뗈쿠맘럑폃ꎬ쫇컞램믱뗃뫏틢뗄튽쇆럾컱뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ늡죋닅믡닉좡룷훖틾뇎뗄쫖뛎ꎬ뛔튽짺뷸탐퓙ꆰ늹쳹ꆱꎬ듓뛸퓶뷸웤ퟔ짭뗄킧폃쮮욽ꆣ뮻퇔횮ꎬ룷훖늻쫊떱뗄틾뇎뗄ꆰ늹쳹ꆱ믮뚯ꎬ쫇퓚쿖폐뗄훆뛈뿲볜쿂늡죋캪룄짆ퟔ짭뗄ힴ뿶뛸늻뗃늻닉좡뗄탐뚯ꆣ컊쳢쫇ꎬ죧맻늻쓜춨맽쫐뎡뺺헹살좷뚨튽쇆럾컱뗄뻹뫢볛룱ꎬ쓇튲뻍럅웺쇋쫐뎡믺훆퓚좷뚨볛룱랽쏦쯹뻟폐뗄컞뿉뇈쓢뗄폅쫆ꆣ뺡맜평폚뗀뗂럧쿕뫍폐쿞퓰죎헢솽룶풼쫸쳵볾뗄듦퓚ꎬ좷쪵믡쪹튽쇆럾컱볛룱퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏욫샫췪좫샭쿫ힴ첬쿂뗄볛룱ꎬ떫쫇헢훖욫샫풴폚튽짺쯹뒦뗄탅쾢폅쫆뗘캻뫍폐쿞퓰죎뛔웤쪩볓뗄놣뮤ꆣ죧맻볈늻쓜닉폃쫊떱뗄듫쪩쿷죵튽짺뗄탅쾢폅쫆뗘캻ꎬ폖늻쓜럏돽폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸ꎬ쓇쎴웤쯻뗄룄룯듫쪩횻쓜쫇ꆰ풵쒾쟳폣ꆱꆣ?듋췢ꎬ퓚놾컄잰쏦뗄럖컶훐ꎬ컒쏇튻횱볙짨ꎬ튽짺쿖폐뗄믹뒡횪쪶뫍믹놾벼쓜쫇룸뚨뗄ꎨ벴k=kꎩꆣ죴럅쯉헢튻볙짨ꎬ룹뻝k폫e뗄뮥늹탔ꎬ컒쏇뻍뫜죝틗붫짏쏦뗄럖컶뷡싛췆맣떽튽짺쫂잰뗄죋솦놾춶짏살ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죧맻뛔튽쇆럾컱볛룱쪩탐맜훆ꎬ튲믡뛔쫂잰뗄죋솦놾춶퓬돉늻샻뗄펰쿬ꆣ틲듋ꎬ듓뚯첬뗄뷇뛈뾴ꎬ튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆믡듸살룼뛠뗄뢣샻쯰쪧ꆣ 쯄ꆢ뷡싛 튽쇆럾컱쫂맘릫훚뗄붡뾵쮮욽ꎬ늢믡틲듋뛸뛔튻맺뗄뺭볃짧믡랢햹닺짺훘튪펰쿬ꆣ쒿잰컒맺튽쇆컀짺쳥훆훐쯹듦퓚뗄컊쳢틑틽웰쇋맣랺뗄맘힢ꆣ폫틑폐뗄듳늿럖퇐뺿늻춬ꎬ놾컄듓튽뮼쮫랽뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆탔헢튻뷇뛈쟐죫ꎬ틔삭럡뫍십뫕뗙쒦ꎨ㈰〲ꎩ뗄럖컶뿲볜캪믹뒡퇐뺿쇋튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄뫳맻벰펰쿬ꆣ?컒쏇뗄럖컶뇭쏷ꎬ떱듦퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆ꎬ쟒ퟮ룟쿞볛뗍폚쫐뎡뻹뫢볛룱쪱ꎬ죴볠맜믺릹컞램췪좫풼쫸튽짺쫕좡웤쯻쿠맘럑폃뗄탐캪ꎬ퓲뇘뚨믡떼훂ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ쳥훆뗄탎돉ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ죧맻헾뢮쫔춼춨맽뷸튻늽뿘훆냼삨튩럑뫍볬퇩럑퓚쓚뗄웤쯻쿠맘럑폃뗄쫕좡살붵뗍튽쇆럑폃ꎬ쓇뻍믡쪹뗃튽짺뗄얬솦쮮욽욫샫듎폅쮮욽ꆣ뮻퇔횮ꎬ쓇횻믡쪹뮼헟뗄뢣샻쮮욽쿂붵ꎬ뛸컞램듸룸쯻쏇폐틦뗄뷡맻ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ듓샭싛싟벭짏붲ꎬ벴쪹듦퓚튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆ꎬ뮼헟떽벶뇰룼룟뗄튽풺뻍헯쪱ꎬ틀좻튪횧뢶룼룟뗄튽쇆럑폃ꆣ?퓚퓋폃뇪ힼ뗄캯췐ꎭ듺샭럖컶랽램ꎬ뛔뻟폐뮥늹탔뗄튽쇆럾컱뷸탐퇐뺿뫳ꎬ 13 춬쪱ꎬ평힢쫍12뿉횪ꎬp0쫇돶쿖벫뛋쟩뿶뗄룅싊ꆣ뿉틔붫웤쫓캪튻룶쟷뷼폚쇣뗄럇뎣킡뗄쫽ꎬ틲듋p20뻍룼짙쇋ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ놶쫽p(p2−p2) 뻍뷼쯆폚1p1101ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ쯼뛸늢늻쫇튻룶뫜듳뗄쫽ꆣ
컒쏇랢쿖ꎬ퓚솽쿮죎컱뮥늹뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죴횻쓜뛔쒳튻쿮죎컱쪵쪩벤샸ꎬ퓲튻냣뚼믡붵뗍늡죋뗄뺻킧폃ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ틲캪튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뛸탎돉뗄ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ헢훖볤뷓뚨볛믺훆ꎬ컞램쪹뮼헟뗄킧폃쮮욽듯떽ꎬ횻듦퓚뗀뗂럧쿕뫍폐쿞퓰죎풼쫸쪱뗄듎폅쮮욽ꆣ룼뷸튻늽뗘뾴ꎬ뾼싇떽튽짺쫂잰뗄죋솦놾춶폫쫂뫳뗄죋솦놾춶뻟폐뮥늹탔ꎬ뻍믡랢쿖ꎬ듓뚯첬뗄뷇뛈뾴ꎬ튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뮹믡퓬돉룼듳뗄뢣샻쯰쪧ꆣ?듓샭싛짏뾴ꎬ뺡맜놾컄쯹럖컶뗄쫇튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆헢튻쳘쫢뗄컊쳢ꎬ떫쫇컄헂뗄뷡싛튲뿉틔뷷짷뗘췆맣떽룼튻냣뗄쟩탎훐좥ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ떱탨튪췪돉솽쿮ꎨ믲솽쿮틔짏ꎩ뮥늹탔뗄죎컱뫳ꎬ닅쓜쳡릩쒳튻짌욷믲럾컱쪱ꎬ죴뛔웤훐뗄쒳튻쿮죎컱짏뗄얬솦쪵쪩볛룱맜훆ꎬ쓇뻍믡쓚짺돶튻룶볤뷓뚨볛믺훆ꆣ쯤좻뒫춳뗄닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛튲맘힢떽쇋헢튻컊쳢ꎬ떫폫닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛훐뺭뗤뗄낢뢥웦ꎭ풼몲톷쒣탍ꎨAverch-Johnson Modelꎩ쿠뇈ꎬ컒쏇뗄럖컶룼뻟폐튻냣탔ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ컒쏇뗄퇐뺿뮹뇭쏷ꎬ퓚튻뚨쳵볾쿂ꎬ볤뷓뚨볛믺훆믡쯰몦짧믡뢣샻ꆣ?춬쪱ꎬ평놾컄뗄럖컶뷡싛뿉횪ꎬ횮쯹틔믡탎돉ꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ헢튻놶쫜럇틩뗄쳥훆ꎬ쫇틲캪볠맜믺릹뛔튽쇆럾컱볛룱쪵쪩쇋맜훆ꆣ틲듋ꎬ쿫퓚늻뒥뚯짵훁볓잿튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ쫔춼춨맽ꆰ튽튩럖볒ꆱꆢꆰ룷튽풺뗄볬퇩떥쿠뮥춨폃ꆱꆢꆰ붵뗍헾뢮뚨볛튩욷볛룱ꆢ톹쯵쇷춨쇬폲늻뫏샭뗄튽쇆뿕볤ꆱ뗈듫쪩살뷢뻶쒿잰튽쇆컀짺쳥훆퓋탐훐쯹돶쿖뗄훖훖컊쳢ꎬ벴뇣쓜퓚쒳튻쳘뚨뗄쪱웚좡뗃튻뗣돉벨ꎬ튲훕뺿늻쓜듓룹놾짏뮯뷢헢튻쳥훆쿂뗄훮뛠쓑쳢ꆣ풭틲뻍퓚폚ꎬꆰ틔튩퇸튽ꆱ뗄쳥훆벰듋쳥훆쿂뗄훖훖럇뎣맦뗄탐캪뚼쫇쓚짺뗄ꆣ뛸퓚늻룄뇤떼훂헢튻쳥훆탎돉뗄췢짺탔틲쯘뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ좥룉풤룃쳥훆퓋탐훐돶쿖뗄쓚짺탔탐캪ꎬ쓇횻쓜듸살룼듳뗄얤쟺ꆣ틲듋ꎬ룄룯쒿잰헢튻믽훘쓑략뗄쳥훆ꎬ훘뗣퓚폚럅쯉뛔튽쇆럾컱볛룱뗄맜훆ꆣ?떱좻ꎬ캪쇋볲뮯럖컶ꎬ놾컄늢쎻폐퇏룱뗘럖컶ꎬ튽쇆럾컱쳡릩맽돌훐뗄쓦쿲톡퓱컊쳢ꆣ뛔폚튽쇆놣쿕퓚튽쇆럾컱쳡릩맽돌훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ틔벰볠맜믺릹뗄풼쫸뫍톡퓱뗈컊쳢ꎬ놾컄뚼쎻폐맘힢ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ놾컄뗄럖컶쫇듓킧싊뗄뷇뛈햹뾪뗄ꎬ틲듋뾼싇릫욽컊쳢뫳ꎬ컒쏇뗄럖컶뷡싛뿉쓜늢늻쫊폃ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ컄헂튲쎻폐짦벰ꎬ튽튩뫍튽쇆웷킵쫐뎡뷡릹폖믡뛔튽짺탐캪뗄펰쿬헢튻컊쳢ꆣ쯹폐헢킩뚼쫇폐듽뷸튻늽퇐뺿뗄훘튪컊쳢ꆣ헽죧놾컄퓚떼퇔훐쯹횸돶뗄ꎬ컒쏇뗄쒿뗄뻍퓚폚쳡릩튻룶움볛튽쇆럾컱볛룱맜훆뗄럖컶뿲볜ꎬ뛸뛔폚죧듋훘튪뗄컊쳢ꎬ뺡맜놾컄ퟶ쇋튻뗣릱쿗ꎬ떫뿏뚨뮹탨튪룼뛠뗄죋춶죫떽폫듋쿠맘뗄릤ퟷ훐살ꆣ??뢽슼†쏼쳢?뗄횤쏷?평쪽ꎨꎩ뫍쪽ꎨㄱꎩ뿉뗃ꎬ?
p2−=p+−p−1yp−p−−p−p−−p+1yVSBVSB2SSSSS1121(1(1))∆pp+1(1)0(0)S(10)∆††††p1p1y=p−pS+p−pS+2(10)(01)y1−?∆p(p1+p0)††††ppy=(p1−0)(S−S)+112y−?∆p(p1+p0)p=∆∆+1p1ypSy−21†††††††††††?†††??∆p(p1+p0)죴튪쪹?p1p1y∆p∆S+2y1−>0?∆p(p1+p0)뻍튪쪹?p1py∆∆S>12−1?∆p(p1+p0)훘업헢튻늻뗈쪽ꎬ뻍뇤돉?pp2yy<0y0∆p∆S2−11+1+?p1p1평폚y2<2y1ꎬ틲듋횻튪쿂쏦헢튻늻뗈쪽돉솢ꎬ짏쏦룷늻뗈쪽뻍돉솢ꎬ?p2y0yp0∆p∆S1≤1+1+?p1p1퓙훘업짏쫶늻뗈쪽ꎬ뗃?p∆20yp0p∆S1−1≤+?p1p1뷢횮뗃ꎬ죴p1y≤∆Sꎬ퓲VSB>VSBꆣ뗃횤ꆣ?22121p1−p0?닎뾼컄쿗?嬱崠AverchꎬH. and Leland L. JohnsonꎬꆰBehavior of the Firm Under Regulatory Constrainꆱꎬ American Economic Reviewꎬ1962ꎬ52(5)ꎬ1052-1069ꆣ 嬲崠DaughetyꎬA.ꎬꆰRegulation and Industrial OrganizationꆱꎬJournal of Political Economyꎬ
1984ꎬ92(5)ꎬ932-953ꆣ ??崠뫮헱룕ꆢ붯돐ꎬꆰ튽풺쯹폐훆뗄뺭볃톧럖컶ꆱꎬꆶ뺭볃톧벾뾯ꆷꎬ㈰〴쓪뗚?뻭퓶뾯ꎬ뗚ㄵ?ꎭㄶ?튳ꆣ???崠뿆뛻쓎ꆢ컌뫍ꎬꆶ맬훐뗄뢣샻ꆢ톡퓱뫍튻훂탔ꆪꆪ뚫얷맺볒컀짺늿쏅룄룯ꆷꆣ놱뺩ꎺ훐탅돶냦짧ꎬ㈰〳쓪ꆣ???崠죃ꎭ퇅뿋ꆤ삭럡ꆢ듳컀ꆤ십뫕뗙쒦?훸ꎬꆶ벤샸샭싛ꎨ뗚튻뻭ꎩꎺ캯췐듺샭쒣탍ꆷꎬ돂횾뾡?뗈틫ꆣ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ㈰〲쓪ꆣ???崠죃ꎭ퇅뿋ꆤ삭럡ꆢ죃ꆤ쳝죴뛻?훸ꎬꆶ헾뢮닉릺폫맦훆훐뗄벤샸샭싛ꆷꎬ쪯샚ꆢ췵폀쟕?틫ꆣ짏몣ꎺ짏몣죽솪쫩뗪ꆢ짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧ꎬ㈰〴쓪ꆣ???崠샮쇡ꎬꆰ맺췢튽쇆컀짺쳥훆틔벰뛔훐맺튽쇆컀짺룄룯뗄웴쪾ꆱꎬꆶ쟳쫇ꆷꎬ㈰〴쓪뗚㈱웚ꆣ???崠MyersꎬS.ꎬꆰA Simple Model of Firm Behavior under Regulation and UncertaintyꆱꎬBell Journal of Economics and Management Scienceꎬ1973ꎬ4(1)ꎬ304ꎭ315ꆣ ??崠췴뚡뚡ꎬꆰ훐맺죋뗄붹싇ꆢ늻탅죎룐폫ꆮ쓻쏊풭샭ꆯꆱꎬꆶ닆뺭ꆷꎬ㈰〵쓪뗚?웚ꆣ??崠퇕붣ꆢ뫺쏻랢ꆢ훜뫳컄ꎬꆰ훐맺튽쇆쳥훆룄룯쏦쏦맛ꆱꎬꆶ킡뾵ꆷꎬ㈰〵쓪뗚?웚ꆣ?
