云南财经大学硕士学位论文机构投资者与现金股利政策关系研究姓名：董峰申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计学指导教师：罗莉2011-05
햪튪 햪튪 떱잰ꎬ쯤좻컒맺막좨럖훃룄룯틑믹놾췪돉ꎬ쪵쿖쇋막럝뗄좫쇷춨ꎬ떫짏쫐릫쮾틀좻듦퓚ퟅ뷏캪춻돶뗄릫쮾훎샭컊쳢ꆣ붫믺릹춶헟틽죫뷸릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ춨맽랢믓웤ퟔ짭뗄ꆰ막뚫믽벫훷틥ꆱꎬ믽벫닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ헢튲캪탍웚컒맺듦퓚뗄훮죧쓚늿죋뿘훆ꆢ뿘막막뚫쟖몦훐킡막뚫샻틦뗈훮뛠릫쮾훎샭컊쳢쳡릩쇋튻쳵뿉탐뗄뷢뻶횮뗀ꆣ 놾컄튻랽쏦틔막샻듺샭샭싛캪믹뒡ꎬ첽쳖믺릹춶헟믡늻믡춨맽닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎬ늢뷸뛸펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦틔막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛캪믹뒡ꎬ퇐뺿엉쿖헾닟폖쓜럱ퟷ캪튻훖탅뫅뒫뗝룸췢늿죋ꎬ듓뛸펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟뗄돖막뻶닟ꆣ놾컄릲냼삨웟헂ꎬ좫컄뷡릹죧쿂ꎺ 뗚튻헂ꎬ탷싛ꆣ훷튪뷩짜쇋싛컄톡쳢놳뺰ꆢ퇐뺿틢틥ꎬ늢쳡돶컄헂뗄퇐뺿뿲볜벰뿉쓜듦퓚뗄뒴탂ꆣ 뗚뛾헂ꎬ컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꆣ헢튻헂훷튪쫇캧죆놾컄뗄퇐뺿훷쿟ꎺ믺릹춶헟폫엉쿖헾닟뛾헟맘쾵살뷸탐쿠맘컄쿗믘맋ꎬ늢럖캪죽룶퇐뺿횧쿟살뷸탐움컶ꎺ믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꆢ막샻헾닟폫릫쮾훎샭벰믺릹춶헟돖막폫엉쿖헾닟ꆣ 뗚죽헂ꎬ샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶ꆣ놾헂쫗쿈틔솽듳뺭뗤막샻샭싛ꆪꆪ막샻듺샭샭싛뫍막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛캪샭싛믹뒡ꎬ뛔믺릹춶헟폫엉쿖헾닟뷸탐럖컶ꎬ첽쳖쇋뛾헟퓚샭싛짏뿉쓜듦퓚뗄솪쾵ꎬ좻뫳뛔뷼쓪믺릹춶헟벰쿖뷰막샻쫽뻝뷸탐뇈뷏퇐뺿ꎬ첽톰뛾헟퓚쪵볹훐뿉쓜듦퓚뗄쒳킩맘솪ꆣ 뗚쯄헂ꎬ쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆ꆣ춨맽뛔믺릹춶헟돖막폫쿖뷰막샻헾닟맘쾵뗄ퟜ뷡ꎬퟷ헟듓믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막ꆢ돖막뇈샽ꆢ돖막훜웚벰짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖ꆢ엉쿖쮮욽뗈훮뛠뷇뛈살뷸탐럖컶ꎬ쳡돶쇋쇹쳵볙짨ꎬ캧죆헢쇹쳵볙짨ꎬ뷸탐쇋쿠맘뇤솿뗄뚨틥ꆢ쒣탍뗄릹붨벰퇹놾솿뗄톡좡ꆣ 뗚컥헂ꎬ쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶ꆣ춨맽뛠풪쿟탔믘맩벰Logistics믘맩뗈춳볆랽램ꎬ뛔믺릹춶헟돖막폫엉쿖헾닟뗄맘쾵듓쫽뻝짏뷸탐뷒쪾ꆣ뛔폚믘맩뫳뗄뷡맻ꎬ놾컄틔쳞돽늿럖퇹놾솿믲뿘훆뇤솿뗈랽쪽뷸탐컈붡탔볬퇩ꎬ살놣횤믘맩뷡맻뗄뿉뾿탔ꆣ늢평폚쓚짺탔뗄듦퓚ꎬퟷ헟틔훍뫳튻웚솪솢랽돌ퟩ뗄랽쪽뷸탐쇋볬퇩ꎬ놣횤쇋퇐뺿뗄췪헻탔ꆣ I
햪튪 뗚쇹헂ꎬ퇐뺿뷡싛벰헾닟붨틩ꆣ춨맽ퟜ뷡횮잰믘맩럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬퟷ헟뗃돶쇋쿠맘뗄춳볆뷡싛ꎬ늢뛔횮잰쯹ퟶ뗄볙짨뷸탐퇩횤ꆣ뷡맻랢쿖뛾헟볤뗄좷듦퓚쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ떫훁폚뫎캪틲ꆢ뫎캪맻ꎬ늢쎻폐퓚놾컄훐뗃떽뎹뗗뷒쪾ꎬ탨튪뷸튻늽뷸탐첽쳖ꆣ헫뛔컒맺쿖뷗뛎믺릹춶헟랢햹맽돌훐듦퓚뗄훮뛠컊쳢ꎬퟷ헟튲쳡돶쇋쿠펦뗄붨틩듫쪩ꆣ 뗚웟헂ꎬ퇐뺿뻖쿞벰햹췻ꆣ춨맽뛔좫컄뷸탐ퟜ뷡ꎬ첽톰웤훐듦퓚뗄훮뛠뻖쿞ꎬ뻍헢킩뻖쿞횮뒦캪뷓쿂살뗄퇐뺿쳡돶뷢뻶듫쪩ꎬ늢췘햹퇐뺿쮼슷ꎬ췚뻲뷱뫳퓚헢튻쇬폲훐뗄뿉퇐뺿횮뒦ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ믺릹춶헟ꎻ릫쮾훎샭ꎻ쿖뷰막샻헾닟ꎻ듺샭샭싛ꎻ탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛 II
Abstract Abstract At present,the reform of non-tradable shares of China has been almost completed,and the target of all shares can be tradable are achieved,but listed companies are still exist outstanding problems of corporate introducing institutional investors into the corporate governance,and actively participate in the corporate governance by playing its own "shareholder activism",it also provides a feasible solution for those problems of the corporate governance which exists in the transition period of China, such as the internal control, the controlling shareholders against the interests of the minority shareholders,and so on. On the one hand,this article discuss whether institutional investors will participate in the corporate governance and thus affect the cash dividend policy of the listed the other hand,whether cash dividend policy which as a typical external appearance of the corporate governance could be send as a signal,thus affecting the holding decision of the institutional article includes seven chapters,the framework of the dissertation is as follows: Chapter 1: chapter mainly presents the background,the significance,the proposed research framework of the article and the possible innovation. Chapter 2: Literature Review. This chapter is organized around the main line of this study: the relationship between institutional investors and cash dividend policy,and also extension for three assessments:institutional investors participate in the corporate governance, dividend policy and corporate governance,institutional investors and cash dividend policy. Chapter 3: Theory Basis and Status Analysis. This chapter firstly put the two classic theory of dividend -dividend agency theory and dividend signal theory as the theoretical foundation,and then discuss the possible relationship which links in the theory between the institutional investors and the corporate governance by making an analysis of the addition,comparing the two data of the institutional investors III
Abstract and the corporate governance of recent years, in order to find some correlation between the both that may exist in the actual. Chapter 4: Empirical Research Design. By summarizing the relationship between the institutional investors and the cash dividend policy of the listed companies,we propose six assumptions by discussing from a variety of different perspectives,such as whether the institutional investors holding shares,the shares proportion,the shares period,whether the listed companies distributing cash dividend,the cash dividend's level,and so the six assumptions,the author definite some relevant variables,construct the models and select the research sample. Chapter 5:Empirical Results and multiple linear regression and Logistics regression methods, the relationship between the institutional investors and the cash dividend policy of the listed companies are revealed by the the results after the regressions, this article take the measure that remove part of the sample or control variables for the robustness test to ensure the reliability of regression results. And also for the existence of endogenous, the author adopt the approach that lag one period and joint a simultaneous equations for the endogenous test to ensure the integrity of the study. Chapter 6:Conclusions and Policy author get some relevant statistical conclusions by summarizing the results of regression analysis,and put the results to verify the six assumptions that made before. The results showed that the holding decisions of the institutional investors and the cash dividend policy of the listed companies could interact with each other, as which one is the cause and which one is the result have not been completely revealed in this article, and we need to discuss this problem the many problems exist with the development of Chinese institutional investors in the current stage,the author also put forward several proposed measures. Chapter 7:Limitations and this aritcle,we could explore many limitations which exist in our research and put forward some solutions for these defects. In addition,the author expand his research visions for digging some points IV
Abstract that worth to study in this field in the future. Key Words: Institutional investors; Corporate governance; Cash dividend policy; Agency theory; Signaling theory V
톧캻싛컄풭뒴탔짹쏷 짹쏷ꎺ놾죋쯹돊붻뗄톧캻싛컄ꎬ쫇놾죋퓚떼쪦뗄횸떼쿂ꎬ뛀솢뷸탐퇐뺿릤ퟷ쯹좡뗃뗄돉맻ꆣ뺡컒쯹횪ꎬ돽컄훐틑뺭힢쏷틽폃뗄쓚죝췢ꎬ놾싛컄늻몬죎뫎웤쯻룶죋믲벯쳥틑뺭랢뇭믲킴맽뗄ퟷ욷돉맻ꆣ뛔놾컄뗄퇐뺿ퟶ돶훘튪릱쿗뗄룶죋뫍벯쳥ꎬ뻹틑퓚컄훐틔쏷좷랽쪽뇪쏷ꆣ놾죋췪좫틢쪶떽놾짹쏷뗄램싉뷡맻평놾죋돐떣ꆣ 싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 톧캻싛컄냦좨쪹폃쫚좨쫩 놾죋췪좫쇋뷢퓆쓏닆뺭듳톧폐맘놣쇴ꆢ쪹폃톧캻싛컄뗄맦뚨ꎬ벴ꎺ톧킣폐좨놣쇴늢쿲맺볒폐맘늿쏅믲믺릹쯍붻싛컄뫍싛컄뗧ퟓ냦ꎬ퓊탭톧캻싛컄놻닩퓄믲뷨퓄ꎻ톧킣뿉틔릫늼톧캻싛컄뗄좫늿믲늿럖쓚죝ꎬ뿉틔닉폃펰펡ꆢ쯵펡믲웤쯼뢴훆쫖뛎놣듦ꆢ믣뇠ꆢ랢뇭톧캻싛컄ꎻ쫚좨톧킣붫톧캻싛컄뗄좫컄믲늿럖쓚죝뇠죫ꆢ쳡릩폐맘쫽뻝뿢뷸탐볬쯷ꆣ ꎨ놣쏜뗄톧캻싛컄퓚뷢쏜뫳ퟱ톭듋맦뚨ꎩ 싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 떼쪦잩쏻ꎺ 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕
뗚튻헂 탷싛 뗚튻헂 탷싛 뗚튻뷚 톡쳢놳뺰 웹뷱캪횹ꎬ믺릹춶틑뺭돉캪놾쫐뎡짏ퟮ훷튪뗄춶훷쳥ꆣ1868쓪ꎬ펢맺떮짺쇋쫀뷧짏뗚튻횻춶믹뷰ꆪꆪ몣췢뫍횳쏱뗘헾뢮탅췐믹뷰ꎬ뻠뷱틑폐140뛠쓪뗄랢햹샺쪷ꆣ횮뫳ꎬ믺릹춶헟훰붥퓚쫀뷧랶캧쓚맣랺랢햹웰살ꎬ폈웤퓚뷼죽쪮쓪뗄랢햹룼캪톸쏍ꆣ퓚얷쏀뗈컷랽랢듯맺볒ꎬ믺릹춶헟퓚룷맺짏쫐릫쮾훐뗄돖막뇈샽죕쟷짏짽ꆣ틔믺릹춶헟퓚쏀맺1000듳웳튵훐뗄쯹폐좨쫽뻝쿔쪾ꎬ듓1987쓪떽2007쓪뗗ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽톸쏍퓶뎤ꎬ틑뺭듓ퟮ돵뗄%퓶볓떽%ꎬ웤훐ꎬ맦쒣ퟮ듳뗄믺릹춶헟쫇퇸샏놣쿕믹뷰ꎬ웤뿉뿘훆뗄닺1벸뫵햼떽쇋믺릹춶헟ퟜ닺뗄1/3ퟳ폒ꆣ헢뇭쏷퓚쏀맺뗈랢듯맺볒ꎬ믺릹춶헟틑뺭돉뎤캪맺쏱뺭볃훐훁맘훘튪뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ퓚컒맺ꎬ쿖뷱쯤좻햼쫐뎡훷쳥뗄틀뻉쫇룶죋춶헟ꎬ떫쯦ퟅ뺭볃뗄뿬쯙랢햹ꎬ폐ퟅ훮뛠폅쫆뗄믺릹춶헟헽뿬쯙돉뎤ꎬ폈웤쫇퓚췆돶막횸웚믵뫳ꎬ쫜쏅볷룟ꆢ럧쿕듳ꆢ튵탔늻잿뗈틲쯘뗄훆풼ꎬ룶죋춶헟쿠뇈웰믺릹춶헟뛸퇔쫕틦탔붫듦퓚룼듳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ틔즢뮧캪훷뗄룶죋춶뷡릹붫믡훰붥놻틔믺릹춶헟캪훷뗄튵믺릹쯹좡듺ꆣ 믺릹춶헟틑뺭닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐좥ꆣ릫쮾훎샭컊쳢쫇튻룶샺뻃쏖탂뗄뮰쳢ꎬAndrei Shleifer&Robert ꎨ1997ꎩ뻍쳡돶쇋튻룶럇뎣뺭뗤뗄싛뛏ꎬꆰ릫2쮾막뚫좷놣ퟔ벺쓜릻쮳샻쫕믘춶늢믱뗃믘놨뗄랽램뻍쫇릫쮾훎샭ꆱꆣퟔ20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살ꎬ쯦ퟅ믺릹춶헟뗄뷸튻늽랢햹벰퓚놾쫐뎡뗘캻뗄훰늽쳡룟ꎬ믺릹춶헟럅웺쇋풭폐뗄ꆰ뮪뛻뷖ힼ퓲ꆱꎬ늻퓙놻뚯뗄춶폚막욱ꎬ벴떱릫쮾튵벨솼뫃쪱춨맽돖막믱좡쫕틦뛸떱릫쮾튵벨늻뫃쪱싴뗴릫쮾막욱ꎬ뛸룼쟣쿲폚춨맽믽벫뗄닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎬ틔웚룄뇤릫쮾훎샭ힴ뿶ꎬ쳡룟릫쮾튵벨ꎬ듓뛸듯떽믱 1 쫽뻝살풴폚탂샋닆뺭 2 Andrei Shleifer,Robert ,A survey of corporate of Finance[J],1997 (52),737-84. 1
뗚튻헂 탷싛 좡컈뚨쟒돖뻃쫕틦뗄쒿뇪ꆣ믺릹춶헟퓚좫쟲랶캧쓚뗄톸쯙랢햹ꎬ쯻쏇닎폫릫쮾훎샭탐캪뗄ꆰ막뚫믽벫훷틥ꆱ탐캪컞틉캪뷼쓪살싅듎랢짺뗄맜샭닣컨뇗낸볾ꆢ맬뺭볃맺볒훐뗄평폚맺폐막막뚫좱캻떼훂뗄쓚늿죋뿘훆ꆢ뿘막막뚫죎틢쟖몦훐킡막뚫샻틦뗈쿖쪵뛸폖?탨뷢뻶뗄컊쳢쳡릩쇋튻쳵뿉탐춾뺶ꆣ 쿖뷰막샻쫇릫쮾훎샭뗄뗤탍췢퓚뇭쿖ꆣ쯹캽막샻헾닟ꎬ냼삨짏쫐릫쮾뫎쪱랢럅막샻ꆢ랢럅뫎훖막샻ꆢ랢럅뛠짙막샻뗈튻쾵쇐훆뛈낲업ꆣ막샻헾닟돽쫜떽쿠맘훆뛈탔틲쯘뗄풼쫸췢ꎬ튲믡쫜떽릫쮾훐룷샻틦벯췅뗄펰쿬ꎬ평폚룷샻틦벯췅뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪뿉쓜듦퓚늻튻훂ꎬ쯻쏇뛔폚막샻뗄탨쟳튲믡폐쯹닮틬ꎬ평폚듦퓚뗄헢훖샻틦늩?ꎬ튲떼훂쇋늩?뫳뗄닺컯ꆪꆪ막샻헾닟쓜릻듺뇭릫쮾쓚늿훎샭뗄쮮욽ꆣ믺릹춶헟ퟷ캪떱잰놾쫐뎡훐뗄튻횧훘튪솦솿ꎬ웤춨맽싄탐ꆰ믽벫막뚫훷틥ꆱ탐캪닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ헢컞틉듲웆쇋릫쮾볤풭폐뗄샻틦늩?욽뫢ꎬ튲쪹뗃릫쮾막샻헾닟뗄ퟟ쿲뇤뗃룼볓웋쮷쏔샫ꆣ 믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟볤믡듦퓚뫎훖맘솪쓘ꎿ평막샻헾닟솽듳뺭뗤샭싛훐뗄막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛뫍막샻듺샭샭싛ꎬ컒쏇뿉횪ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ평폚릫쮾맜샭닣폫췢늿춶헟횮볤듦퓚뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆ꎬ막샻헾닟뿉쓜믡붫맜샭닣뛔릫쮾캴살잰뺰뗄풤볆뒫뗝룸췢늿죋ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ릫쮾맜샭닣폫막뚫횮볤뿉쓜듦퓚뗄샻틦늻튻훂믡떼훂듺샭돉놾ꎬ쟒떱췢늿볠뚽솦뛈늻릻쪱ꎬ헢훖듺샭돉놾뮹뇈뷏룟ꎬ믡펰쿬떽웳튵뗄뺭펪튵벨ꎬ듋쪱춨맽막샻엉랢ꎬ쓜릻복짙맜샭닣쯹쓜횧엤뗄ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ뷸뛸웰떽복짙듺샭돉놾뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ막샻헾닟뒫뗝뗄캴살잰뺰죧뫎벰릫쮾듺샭돉놾ힴ뿶죧뫎뗈뚼뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟뗄춶뻶닟ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ믺릹춶헟ퟷ캪췢늿춶헟ꎬ춨맽탐쪹ꆰ믽벫막뚫훷틥ꆱ닎폫떽풭샻틦벯췅횮볤뗄늩?뚷헹훐ꎬ캪복짙듺샭돉놾캬뮤ퟔ짭샻틦ꎬ쾣췻쓜릻춨맽ꆰ폃쫖춶욱ꆱ뗄랽쪽붫엉쿖헾닟쿲폐샻폚ퟔ짭뗄랽쿲ꆣEckbo and verma(1994)횸돶ꎬ믺릹춶헟쟣쿲폚릫쮾냑ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷폃폚랢럅막샻ꎬ듓뛸복짙ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷쯹틽웰뗄듺샭돉놾ꆣ틲듋ꎬ믺릹춶헟뗄춶뻶닟튲뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾뗄엉쿖헾닟ꆣ 2
뗚튻헂 탷싛 믺릹춶헟뺿뺹쓜럱랢믓ꆰ믽벫막뚫훷틥ꆱꎬ닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐좥ꎬ듓뛸뛔짏쫐릫쮾뗄막샻헾닟닺짺펰쿬?랴맽살ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾뗄막샻헾닟폖쓜늻쓜펰쿬떽ퟷ캪췢늿죋뗄믺릹춶헟뗄춶뻶닟쓘ꎿ믹폚듋ꎬ놾컄듓믺릹춶헟폫짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻헾닟맘쾵뗄뷇뛈살뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ춨맽짮죫뗄웊컶ꎬ쫔춼헒돶짏쫶컊쳢뗄헽좷듰낸ꆣ 뗚뛾뷚 퇐뺿틢틥 ퟔ듓2000쓪횤볠믡쫗듎쳡돶ꆰ뎬뎣맦ꆢ뒴퓬탔뗘엠폽뫍랢햹믺릹춶헟ꆱ뗄뿚뫅틔살ꎬ컒맺믺릹춶헟뗄랢햹뻍듓캴춣횹맽ꆣ퓚헾뢮듳솦췆뷸믺릹춶헟컈늽쿲잰랢햹뗄뎫떼쿂ꎬ퓚뺭맽막좨럖훃룄룯ꎬ막좨훰붥럖즢뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ믺릹춶헟헽죕틦돉캪놾쫐뎡짏뗄횧훹솦솿ꎬ랢믓쇋뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뛸컒맺짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐듦퓚뗄훮죧맺폐막막뚫좱캻떼훂뗄쓚늿죋뿘훆컊쳢ꆢꆰ튻막뛀듳ꆱꎬ좱랦폐킧훆뫢컊쳢ꆢ뿘막막뚫쟖햼훐킡막뚫샻틦컊쳢ꆢ뛔룟맜뗄벤샸폫풼쫸늻떽캻컊쳢ꆢ짏쫐릫쮾탅쾢엻슶춸쏷뛈늻룟뗈컊쳢룸헽뒦폚훰늽ힳ듳ꆢ뿬쯙랢햹쪱웚뗄컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쏉짏쇋튻닣틵펰ꎬ죧뫎첽뺿튻쳵탐횮폐킧뗄듫쪩살뷢뻶헢킩컊쳢틑쫇떱잰ퟮ훘튪뗄쓑쳢ꎬ믺릹춶헟컞틉캪헢뗀쓑쳢룸돶쇋튻룶뫜뫃뗄뷢듰ꆣ춨맽퇐뺿믺릹춶헟폫쿖뷰막샻횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉틔쪹컒쏇튻뿺믺릹춶헟뗄뛋쓟ꎬ뾴웤뺿뺹폐컞닎폫떽짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐살ꎬ쯼폖쓜럱돐떣웰뷢뻶짏쫶훮뛠훎샭컊쳢뗄훘죎ꎬ춨맽놾컄뗄퇐뺿ꎬ쿠탅쓜릻캪헾뢮뗄쿠맘뻶닟쳡릩횤뻝횧돖ꆣ듋췢ꎬ쿖뷗뛎퇐뺿믺릹춶헟폫짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻뗄컄쿗늻뛠ꎬ놾컄붫럡뢻헢튻쇬폲뗄퇐뺿ꆣ 뗚죽뷚 퇐뺿뒴탂 놾컄퇐뺿뗄뒴탂뗣훷튪쳥쿖퓚ꎺ 뗚튻ꎬ놾컄듓쿖뷰막샻뗄뷇뛈퇐뺿쇋믺릹춶헟폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟횮볤3
뗚튻헂 탷싛 뗄맘쾵ꆣ떱잰ꎬ쯤좻퇐뺿믺릹춶헟뗄컄헂뷏뛠ꎬ떫듳뛠쫇듓릫쮾벨킧ꆢ펯폠맜샭뗈뷇뛈살뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ듓쿖뷰막샻살뷸탐퇐뺿뗄컄헂늻뛠ꎬ놾컄럡뢻쇋헢랽쏦뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ 뗚뛾ꎬ놾컄쪹폃쇋짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖ꆢ엉쿖쮮욽벰믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막ꆢ돖막뇈샽ꆢ돖막훜웚뗈죴룉뇤솿ꎬ퇐뺿뗄뷇뛈뇈뷏좫쏦ꆣ폈웤쫇놾컄쪹폃쇋돖막훜웚헢룶룅쓮ꎬ쿖뷗뛎횻쫇쪹폃돖막뇈샽떥튻뇤솿뗄컄헂뷏뛠ꎬ쪹폃돖막훜웚뗄뷏짙ꎬ쯤좻횸뇪뗄짨솢짐탨짌좶ꎬ떫헢튲쯣쫇놾컄뗄쇁뗣횮튻ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ쪹폃뗄퇹놾쫽뻝뇈뷏탂ꆣ놾컄쪹폃뗄퇹놾쟸볤쫇듓2007쓪훁2009쓪ꎬ퓚듋웚볤ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽짏쫐릫쮾쪵쿖쇋막좨럖훃룄룯ꎬ믹놾쪵쿖쇋맺폐막훰늽췋돶ꆢ췪짆놾쫐뎡훆뛈뗄쒿뇪ꎬ듋쪱ꎬ믺릹춶헟뗄돖막룼볓쟷뷼폚샭쿫쮮욽ꎬ뇜쏢쇋룄룯잰평폚맺폐막늻쓜쇷춨쯹떼훂뗄믺릹춶헟돖막쮮욽뷏뗍뗄뇗늡ꆣ 뗚쯄뷚 퇐뺿쮼슷벰뷡릹낲업 놾컄쫗쿈듓막샻듺샭샭싛뫍막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛뗄뷇뛈ꎬ늢뷡뫏컒맺믺릹춶헟뗄랢햹쟩뿶벰짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쟩뿶ꎬ뛔믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헢뛾헟볤뿉쓜듦퓚뗄맘쾵뷸탐뚨탔럖컶ꎬ뗃돶믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖횮볤뿉쓜듦퓚쒳킩솪쾵뗄뷡싛ꎻ웤듎ꎬ틔2007-2009쓪퓚컒맺솽쫐돽뷰죚샠뗄짏쫐릫쮾쿠맘닆컱쇏벰믺릹춶헟돖막쫽뻝캪믹뒡ꎬ퓋폃뛠훖춳볆믘맩럖컶랽램뷸탐뚨솿럖컶ꎬ늢평폚쓚짺탔컊쳢뗄듦퓚ꎬퟷ헟쪹폃쇋훍뫳튻웚솪솢랽돌ퟩ뗄탎쪽뛔뛾헟볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뷸탐쇋돤럖뗄쪵횤럖컶ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬ쳡돶쿠맘헾닟붨틩ꎬ횸돶컒맺믺릹춶헟퓚뷱뫳랢햹맽돌훐뿉쓜폶떽뗄헏낭벰쿠펦뷢뻶듫쪩ꆣ 놾컄뷡릹낲업죧쿂ꎺ뗚튻헂캪탷싛ꎬ훷튪뷩짜놾컄톡쳢뗄쿠맘놳뺰ꆢ퇐뺿틢틥ꆢ퇐뺿뒴탂뗣벰쿠맘볜릹ꎬ뛔좫컄웰ퟅ쳡룙웵쇬뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뗚뛾헂캪컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꎬ헫뛔놾컄뗄퇐뺿훷쿟쯹캧죆뗄죽룶뗣ꎺ믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎻ막샻헾닟폫릫쮾훎샭벰믺릹춶헟돖막폫막샻헾닟럖뇰뷸탐컄쿗쫡샭폫믘맋ꆣ뗚죽헂4
뗚튻헂 탷싛 캪샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶ꎬ헢튻헂튲쫇놾컄뗄솢싛쯹퓚ꎬ틔막샻듺샭샭싛뫍막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛캪믹뒡ꎬ늢뷡뫏믺릹춶헟뫍쿖뷰막샻엉랢쿖ힴ뷸탐럖컶ꎬ첽쳖헢뛾헟볤뿉쓜듦퓚뗄솪쾵ꆣ뗚쯄헂벰뗚컥헂캪쪵횤퇐뺿늿럖ꎬ틔2007-2009쓪뗄짏쫐릫쮾쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꎬ헒돶뛾헟퓚춳볆짏쫇럱듦퓚쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ늢펡횤횮잰쯹ퟶ뗄샭싛럖컶ꎬ캪뷢뾪쓚짺탔컊쳢ꎬ뛔뛾헟볤뗄틲맻맘쾵뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ뗚쇹헂캪퇐뺿뷡맻벰헾닟붨틩ꎬퟛ뫏잰쏦뗄훖훖럖컶뷡맻ꎬ쇐쪾돶뛾헟볤뗄쿠뮥맘쾵뷡싛ꎬ늢쳡돶죴룉헾닟붨틩ꆣ 5
뗚튻헂 탷싛 놾컄퇐뺿쮼슷뻟쳥죧쿂춼쯹쪾ꎺ 믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖맘쾵퇐뺿 쿠맘컄쿗믘맋 샭싛럖컶쿖ힴ럖컶 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쿖ힴ 막샻듺샭샭싛 막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛믺릹춶헟쿖ힴ 폐쓜솦튲폐틢풸쪩볓펰쿬 짏쫐믺릹엉쿖맦쒣 뿉쓜듦퓚릫쮾춶쫽솿풽살 엉쿖헟돖벰훊풽듳뮥쿠펰쿬막 솿뻹쳡룟 폐놾컼틽믺릹춶헟돖막 쟉뫏뗄쿖쿳믡쫇뛾헟볤뿉쓜듦퓚뗄솪쾵떼훂뗄싰ꎿ샭싛럖컶뷒쪾뛾헟뿉쓜듦퓚쒳킩솪쾵 쪵횤볬퇩 뛾헟뺿뺹뫎캪틲ꎬ뫎캪맻ꎿ뛾헟볤듦퓚쿠맘맘쾵 쓚짺탔볬퇩 뛾헟쿠뮥펰쿬 쳡돶헾닟붨틩 6
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 놾컄훷튪쫇퇐뺿믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ퇐뺿슷뺶쫇ꎺ믺릹춶헟춨맽랢믓ꆰ막뚫믽벫훷틥ꆱꎬ믽벫닎폫떽짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐살ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟ꎻ뛸폫듋춬쪱짏쫐릫쮾뗄엉쿖헾닟ퟷ캪탅뫅뒫뗝룸ퟷ캪췢늿죋뗄믺릹춶헟ꎬ듓뛸룄뇤웤돖막닟싔ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄뗄컄쿗믘맋뻍캧죆ퟅ틔쿂헢죽랽쏦살햹뾪ꎺ믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎻ막샻헾닟폫릫쮾훎샭ꎻ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟폫믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟ꆣ 뗚튻뷚 믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭 룅삨웰살ꎬ믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄컄쿗훷튪폐ꎺ퇐뺿펰쿬믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄틲쯘ꎻ퇐뺿믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄랽쪽ꎻ퇐뺿믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄킧맻뗈죽룶랽쏦ꆣ 튻ꆢ펰쿬믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭틲쯘 믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭쫜떽뛠훖틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ죧맺볒램싉쳥쾵맦뚨ꆢ닎폫돉놾폫믱뗃킧틦ꆢ뛌웚펯샻톹솦뗈뗈ꎬퟛ뫏웰살ꎬ훷튪폐믽벫틲쯘랽쏦뫍쿻3벫틲쯘랽쏦ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ듓믽벫틲쯘랽쏦살쮵ꎬKrikorianꎨ1991ꎩ죏캪평폚믺릹춶헟뗄ퟔ폐뷰뚼쫇뇰죋뗄춶ꎬ틲듋폐틥컱캪뇰죋뾴맜ꎬ쪹웤놣횵퓶횵ꎬ캪듋탅췐퓰죎쫇믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄뚯믺ꆣShleifer and Vishnyꎨ1996ꎩ죏캪돖막뇈샽뷏룟뗄듳막뚫폐룼듳뗄뚯믺살닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎬ틲캪쯻쏇듓훐믱뗃뗄쫕틦튪풶풶듳폚뢶돶뗄돉놾ꆣMarshꎨ1990ꎩ퓲냑믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄뚯믺맩쓉캪복짙듺샭돉놾뫍듙쪹맜샭닣룼볓맘힢웳튵뎤웚벨킧ꆣ듓쿻벫틲쯘살쮵ꎬHuddartꎨ1993ꎩ죏캪엓듳뗄돉놾쫇ퟨ낭믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄훘튪풭 3 췵닊욼.믺릹춶헟폫릫쮾훎샭맘쾵퇐뺿[M].놱뺩ꎺ뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꎬ2007ꎺ16-20. 7
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 틲ꆣCoffeeꎨ1991ꎩ죏캪믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭쫇틔컾짼뷰쇷뚯탔캪듺볛뗄ꆣ샮쿲잰ꎨ2002ꎩ죏캪막좨뇈샽ꆢ볠뚽돉놾ꆢ릫쮾볛횵뗈틲쯘뗄뇤뚯믡펰쿬믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꆣ리폱쯉ꎨ2004ꎩ죏캪뷏뗍뗄돖막뇈샽뫍튻막뛀듳뗄뻖쏦쫇펰쿬믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄훷튪틲쯘ꆣ ퟷ헟죏캪ꎬ퇐뺿펰쿬믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄틲쯘펦룃폐틔쿂벸룶닣쏦ꎬ쫗쿈ꎬ쫇짏쫐릫쮾닣쏦ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾ퟔ짭뗄펯샻쓜솦ꆢ뢺햮쟩뿶ꆢ랢햹잰뺰뗈쳘헷뻹믡뛔믺릹춶헟닎막늢닎폫릫쮾훎샭닺짺펰쿬ꎻ웤듎ꎬ쫇믺릹춶헟닣쏦ꎬ틔컒맺캪샽ꎬ평폚놾쫐뎡쳥훆뗄늻릻붡좫ꎬ룸쇋튻킩믺릹춶헟쒲샻뗄믺믡ꎬ쯼쏇늻춨맽닎폫릫쮾훎샭믱샻ꎬ뛸쫇춨맽닙ퟝ막볛믱좡싲싴닮볛믱샻ꎬ쇭췢ꎬ믺릹춶헟뗄맦쒣ꆢ뷰살풴뗈튲뚼믡뛔웤닎폫릫쮾훎샭믽벫탔닺짺펰쿬ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬ쫇뫪맛닣쏦ꎬ튲뻍쫇뺭볃뮷뺳뗄뫃뮵ꆢ헾뢮헾닟ꆢ램싉램맦뗈뗈튲뚼믡펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꆣ 뛾ꆢ믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭랽쪽 Nielsenꎨ2001ꎩ죏캪믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄랽쪽냼삨퓋폃춶욱좨ꆢ듓쫂듺샭춶욱좨뺺헹ꆢ췆볶뚭쫂ꆢ랢웰쯟쯏뗈ꆣParrinoꎬSiash and Starks(2003)죏캪닎폫랽쪽뮹펦냼삨폫맜샭닣킭짌ꆢ쎽쳥릫뾪ꆢ랢돶막뚫쳡낸뗈ꆣDavid and Kochharꎨ1996ꎩ죏캪믺릹춶헟뮹뿉닉폃맦뚨췢늿뚭쫂뇈샽벰뚭쫂뎤폫CEO럖뾪뗈랽쪽살닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꆣWahalꎨ1996)죏캪퇸샏믹뷰뺭뎣닉폃뗄닎폫랽쪽쫇릫뾪쳡쏻웳튵캪훎샭ꆰ쒿뇪ꆱꎬ웤훐헽쪽뗄쳡쏻웳튵캪훎샭ꆰ쒿뇪ꆱ냼삨듺샭쳡낸뫍럇듺샭쳡낸솽샠ꆣ잰헟냼삨톡퓱쒿뇪웳튵ꆢ폫쒿뇪웳튵뷸탐릵춨ꆢ쳡붻쳡낸뇭뻶ꆢ쳡돶뷢뻶랽낸뗈ꎬ뛸뫳헟퓲횻쫇쿫튪웳튵횪뗀믹뷰늻싺틢릫쮾뗄튵벨냕쇋ꆣ싞뚰솺ꎨ2008ꎩ죏캪닎폫릫쮾훎샭춾뺶훷튪폐릫뾪붨틩ꆢ탐튵ퟩ횯볠뚽ꆢퟩ돉믺릹춶헟솪쏋ꆢ쯟쯏ꆢ탐쪹춶욱좨ꆢ쳡붻막뚫쳡낸ꆢ헷벯캯췐춶욱좨ꆢ폫맜샭닣릵춨뗈ꆣ 컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ컞싛쫇맺췢뮹쫇맺쓚뛔헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿뚼뇈뷏짙ꎬ헢폫쿠맘8
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 쫽뻝뗄좱랦폐맘ꎬ평폚짏쫐릫쮾엻슶뗄룼뛠뗄횻쫇웤닆컱탅쾢ꎬ뛔쓚늿막뚫횮볤뗄붻쇷탅쾢뫜짙폐쳡벰ꎬ퓬돉톧헟쏇횻쓜듓튻킩샭싛벰쿖쿳훐쪹폃맦랶럖컶뗃돶튻킩뷡싛ꆣퟷ헟죏캪ꎬ믺릹춶헟뛔닎폫릫쮾훎샭랽쪽뗄톡퓱훷튪쫇룹뻝짏쫐릫쮾뗄탐캪쫇럱뒥벰떽믺릹춶헟ퟔ짭뗄샻틦벰뒥벰돌뛈죧뫎살좷뚨뗄ꆣ죧쒳튻쳡낸뛔믺릹춶헟뗄샻틦늻릹돉짋몦ꎬ쯼쏇뿉쓜믡톡퓱훃횮늻샭ꎻ뛸죧맻쒳튻쳡낸뛔믺릹춶헟뗄샻틦릹돉췾킲ꎬ떫췾킲돌뛈늻룟ꎬ쯼쏇뿉쓜믡톡퓱릫뾪붨틩믲폫맜샭닣릵춨뗈ꎬ뛸횻폐떱맜샭닣훃횮늻샭믲쫇췾킲돖탸퓶볓쪱ꎬ쯼쏇닅뿉쓜믡톡퓱ퟩ돉믺릹춶헟솪쏋뛔랽낸뷸탐뻑믷믲쫇쳡웰쯟쯏뗈랽쪽ꆣ 죽ꆢ믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭킧맻 퓚맜샭닣놨돪랽쏦ꎬHartzell and Starksꎨ2003ꎩ퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟쯹폐좨뗄벯훐폚릫쮾맜샭닣놨돪뗄벨킧쏴룐탔헽쿠맘ꎬ폫놨돪쮮욽뢺쿠맘ꆣ퓚랴뷓맜쳡낸랽쏦ꎬJarrell and Poulsenꎨ1988ꎩ뗄퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟뛔릫쮾뗄랴쫕릺탞헽낸랢믓쏷쿔뗄볠뚽ퟷ폃ꆣDuggal and Millarꎨ1999ꎩ죏캪믺릹춶헟늢쎻폐퓚뿘훆좨틆쫐뎡짏랢믓볠뚽ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚펯폠맜샭랽쏦ꎬBusheeꎨ1998ꎩ랢쿖믺릹쯹폐좨뷏룟뗄웳튵늻첫뿉쓜믡돶쿖펯폠맜샭쿖쿳ꆣGillan and Starksꎨ1998ꎩ죏캪떱믺릹춶헟쯹폐좨ퟣ릻룟쪱ꎬ뻍쓜릻뛔맜샭닣쳡릩늻헦쪵뗄닆컱놨룦탎돉훆풼ꆣ퓚놾뷡릹랽쏦ꎬBathala,Moon and Raoꎨ1994ꎩ뗄퇐뺿튲랢쿖믺릹돖막쓜릻붵뗍듺샭돉놾ꎬ틲뛸믺릹돖막쮮욽폫릫쮾햮컱쮮욽뢺쿠맘ꆣ퓚웳튵볛횵랽쏦ꎬShort and Keaseyꎨ1997ꎩ죏캪믺릹춶헟닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ늢폐샻폚웳튵뎤웚볛횵뗄쳡룟ꆣDel Guercio and Hawkinsꎨ1999ꎩ랢쿖믺릹춶헟쯹폐좨폫웳튵벨킧볤듦퓚헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 맺쓚맘폚훎샭킧맻랽쏦뗄쿠맘퇐뺿뇈뷏럡뢻ꎬ쟒틔쪵횤퇐뺿뗄컄쿗뻓뛠ꆣ퓚웳튵볛횵랽쏦ꎬ키탇뫍췵ꎨ2005ꎩ죏캪횤좯춶믹뷰쓜릻웰떽룄짆릫쮾튵벨뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ샮캬낲뫍샮뇵ꎨ2008ꎩ퇐뺿랢쿖믺릹춶헟뗄뷩죫쓜릻쳡룟릫쮾뗄뺻닺쫕틦싊ꆣ쇺헱몣ꎨ2010ꎩ틔2005-2008쓪컒맺짏쫐릫쮾랢짺뗄튪풼쫕릺9
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 캪놳뺰ꎬ뛔컒맺믺릹춶헟뗄ퟷ폃뷸탐럖컶ꎬ뷡맻랢쿖붻틗웚쓚믺릹춶헟뛔릫쮾볛횵폐뢺쏦펰쿬ꎬ붻틗웚뫳믺릹춶헟돖막늢늻쓜쿔훸쳡룟릫쮾볛횵ꆣ쳆쯉솫뫍풬뒺짺ꎨ2010ꎩ뗄퇐뺿죏캪믺릹춶헟퓚릫쮾훎샭훐냧퇝뗄뷇즫좡뻶폚웤돖막쟩뿶ꎬ떱돖막뇈샽뷏룟쪱ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뛔릫쮾튵벨폐헽쏦펰쿬ꎬ뛸떱돖막뇈샽뷏뗍쪱ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뛔릫쮾튵벨폐뢺쏦펰쿬ꆣ퓚펯폠맜샭랽쏦ꎬ돌쫩잿ꎨ2006ꎩ죏캪믺릹춶헟뛔릫쮾펯폠맜샭탐캪폐쏷쿔뗄틖훆ퟷ폃ꎬ헢뇭쏷믺릹춶헟틑닎폫떽짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐ꆣ쿄뚫쇖뫍샮룕ꎨ2008ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뿉틔룄짆릫쮾펯폠훊솿ꎬ쟒쯦ퟅ돖막뇈샽뗄퓶볓펯폠훊솿튲쯦횮쳡룟ꆣ믆잫ꎨ2009ꎩ죏캪믺릹춶헟폫짏쫐릫쮾펯폠맜샭횮볤돊떹U탍맘쾵ꎬ쟒퇩횤돶맕뗣캪믺릹춶헟돖막6%ꆣ놡쿉믛뫍컢솪짺ꎨ2009ꎩ듓펯폠맜샭뗄뷇뛈퇐뺿맺폐뿘막폫믺릹춶헟뗄훎샭킧펦ꎬ뷡맻랢쿖맺폐뿘막뫍믺릹춶헟돖막뻹폐샻폚틖훆릫쮾펯폠탐캪ꎬ떫믺릹춶헟뗄믽벫훎샭ퟷ폃퓚맺폐뿘막릫쮾훐쫜떽쿞훆ꆣ퓚맘솪랽랽쏦ꎬ췵뫍키탇ꎨ2005ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷믺릹춶헟돖막쓜릻폐킧붵뗍컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뷰놻맘솪랽햼폃뗄탐캪ꎬ헢튲뇭쏷쇋믺릹춶헟틑뺭닎폫떽짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐좥ꆣ퓚놣뮤춶헟좨틦랽쏦ꎬ쇵횾풶뫍뮨맳죧ꎨ2009ꎩ듓헾뢮뿘훆뗄훆뛈닣쏦돶랢ꎬ틔듳막뚫뷰쟖햼캪퓘쳥살뾼달믺릹춶헟뗄막뚫믽벫훷틥탐캪ꎬ퇐뺿랢쿖믺릹춶헟폐뚯믺뫍쓜솦살놣뮤춶헟좨틦ꎬ쿠뛔폚럇헾뢮뿘훆뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ퓚헾뢮뿘훆뗄짏쫐릫쮾훐ꎬ믺릹춶헟놣뮤춶헟좨틦뗄킧맻뷏닮ꆣ퓚릫쮾탅쾢춸쏷뛈랽쏦ꎬ튶붨랼ꆢ샮떤쏉뫍뚡쟭ꎨ2009ꎩ뗄퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뛔릫쮾뗄탅쾢춸쏷뛈폐믽벫헽쏦뗄펰쿬ꆣ췵퇇욽ꆢ쇵믛쇺뫍컢솪짺ꎨ2009ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷릫쮾탅쾢춸쏷뛈폫막볛춬늽탔횮볤돊헽쿲맘쾵ꎬ떱믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쳡룟쪱ꎬ헢훖헽쿲맘쾵믡복죵ꆣ퓚탅쾢엻슶벰쪱탔랽쏦ꎬ쇵붨폂뫍훬톧틥ꎨ2009ꎩ틔2005-2007쓪짏쫐릫쮾쫽뻝캪퇹놾뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ뷡맻뇭쏷믺릹춶헟돖막믡펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾탅쾢엻슶벰쪱탔ꎬ폐믺릹춶헟뗄짏쫐릫쮾웤탅쾢엻슶벰쪱탔튪뫃폚쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄릫쮾ꆣ퓚릫쮾뒴탂탐캪랽쏦ꎬ헔뫩붭뫍쿄ꎨ2009ꎩ뗄퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟ퟜ10
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 쳥뛔짏쫐릫쮾뒴탂탐캪뗄펰쿬늻릻쿔훸ꎬ뛸퓚뾼달늻춬샠탍믺릹춶헟뛔뒴탂탐캪펰쿬쪱랢쿖ꎬ톹솦뗖뾹탔춶헟죧뾪럅쪽믹뷰뫍럢뇕쪽믹뷰폫짏쫐릫쮾뒴탂탐캪볤돊쿖쏷쿔헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ ퟛ뫏맺쓚췢훮뛠톧헟뗄맛뗣ꎬ컒쏇랢쿖맺쓚췢뛔헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿돉맻쿠떱럡뢻ꎬ떫춬쪱컒쏇튲랢쿖폐톧헟뛔믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뇭쪾쇋뮳틉ꎬ죏캪웤늢쎻폐믽벫뗄닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐좥ꎬ뛔룄짆훎샭킧맻늻웰ퟷ폃뗈ꆣ떫ퟜ뗄쮵살ꎬ풽살풽뛠뗄톧헟횧돖믺릹춶헟믽벫닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐좥ꎬ뛔폅뮯릫쮾막좨뷡릹ꆢ쳡룟릫쮾맜샭쮮욽웰떽쇋믽벫뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뺡맜돉맻럡뢻ꎬ떫헢킩퇐뺿튲듦퓚튻킩좱쿝ꎬ룼뛠뗄횻쫇헫뛔쿖쿳ퟜ뷡돶쇋뷡싛ꎬ쎻폐쳡돶믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄뻟쳥뚯믺폫춾뺶ꆣ 뗚뛾뷚 막샻헾닟폫릫쮾훎샭 퓚붫막샻헾닟ퟷ캪릫쮾훎샭탅뫅퇐뺿랽쏦ꎬMiller and Modiglianiꎨ1961ꎩ쫗듎뇭쏷막샻뗄뇤룼뿉쓜믡붫뺭샭죋풱맘폚릫쮾잰뺰뗄쓚늿쿻쾢뒫뗝룸췢늿춶4헟ꎬ벴막샻뻟폐탅뫅뒫뗝ퟷ폃ꆣBhattacharya(1979)죏캪평폚막샻쿠뛔폚놾쫕틦뛸퇔듦퓚쮰쫕랽쏦뗄쇓쫆ꎬ틲뛸막샻헾닟뿉틔ퟷ캪탅뫅쿲췢뷧뒫뗝릫쮾5뗄쓚늿탅쾢ꆣ퓚퇐뺿막샻헾닟폫웳튵볛횵랽쏦ꎬDownes and Heinkelꎨ1982ꎩ뗄퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ막뚫쯹폐좨폫웳튵볛횵듦퓚헽쿲맘쾵ꎬ떫막샻뗄엉랢좴폫웳튵볛횵늻듦퓚헽쿲맘쾵ꆣ퓚퇐뺿막샻헾닟폫쓚늿죋돖막벰듺샭돉놾맘쾵랽쏦ꎬRozeffꎨ1982ꎩꆢEasterbrookꎨ1984ꎩꆢJensenꎨ1986ꎩ뗈뻹죏캪ꎬ막샻횧뢶뿉틔ퟷ캪튻훖쫖뛎살뿘훆릫쮾듺샭돉놾ꆣBornꎨ1988ꎩ죏캪탻늼틬뎣막샻웚볤뗄막볛믘놨뫍죃쫜쿞훆뗄쓚늿죋돖막뗄돌뛈돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣSchooley and Barneyꎨ1994ꎩ쳡돶막샻횧뢶싊뫍맜샭닣돖막횮볤듦퓚럇떥뗷맘쾵ꆣ떱쓚늿죋돖막뇈 ,Modigliani,F.,Dividend Policy,Growth,and the Valuation of Shares,The Journal of Business, 1961(34):411-433. 5 뺭볃톧훐탅뫅쒣탍뗄잰놲쫇Akelofꎨ1970ꎩꎬ붫탅뫅샭싛쫗듎퓋폃떽닆컱샭싛퇐뺿훐뗄쫇Leland&Pyleꎨ1977ꎩꎬ뛸뗚튻욪막샻탅뫅쒣탍뗄컄헂살ퟔ폚Bhattacharya(1979)ꆣ 11
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 샽뗍쪱ꎬ쯦ퟅ돖막뇈샽뗄쳡룟ꎬ듺샭돉놾붫붵뗍ꎬ듋쪱쪹폃막샻ퟷ캪붵뗍듺샭돉놾뗄릤뻟틑늻뿉좡ꎻ떱쓚늿죋돖막뇈샽룟쪱ꎬ쯦ퟅ돖막뇈샽뗄쳡룟ꎬ듺샭돉놾붫퓶볓ꎬ듋쪱ꎬ막샻붫뿉ퟷ캪붵뗍듺샭돉놾뗄ퟮ병릤뻟ꆣ 맺쓚맘폚헢뛾헟볤맘쾵뗄퇐뺿훷튪폐ꎺ돂쿾ꆢ돂킡퓃뫍쓟랲ꎨ1998ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ쿖뷰막샻ꆢ막욱막샻폫믬뫏막샻뻹뻟폐탅뫅뒫뗝킧펦ꎬ쟒쿖뷰막샻뗄뒫뗝킧펦튪잿폚쇭췢솽훖막샻헾닟ꆣ싀뎤붭뫍췵뿋쏴ꎨ2002ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻랢쿖ꎬ맜샭좨뇈샽폫막샻헾닟돊쿔훸뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ풭뫬웬ꎨ2001ꎩ틔1994-1997쓪뗄막샻럖엤랽낸캪퇹놾뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ뷡맻뇭쏷쿖뷰막샻믡쫇뿘막막뚫틆릫쮾닺뗄탐캪횮튻ꆣ캺룕ꎨ2001ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ맺볒막뫍램죋막막뚫욫뫃막샻ꎬ뛸쇷춨막막뚫좴늻쫇쳘뇰욫뫃막샻ꆣ샮퓶좪뫍죎잿ꎨ2003ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷떱쯹폐좨훆뛈풽폐샻폚놣뮤춶헟좨틦쪱ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾풽쟣쿲폚엉랢쿖뷰막샻ꆣ쇎샭뫍랽랼ꎨ2004ꎩ죏캪맜샭닣돖막뛔폚듺샭돉놾뷏룟릫쮾뗄막샻횧뢶폐쏷쿔뗄횧돖ퟷ폃ꎬ뛸뛔폚듺샭돉놾뷏뗍릫쮾뗄막샻횧뢶뗄ퟷ폃늻쏷쿔ꆣ ퟛ뫏맺쓚췢톧헟뗄맛뗣ꎬ컒쏇랢쿖쿠맘뗄퇐뺿뇈뷏뛠ꎬ듳뛠쫇듓막샻뻟폐뗄붵뗍듺샭돉놾ퟷ폃랽쏦뫍막샻뻟폐뗄탅뫅뒫뗝ퟷ폃랽쏦살뷸탐퇐뺿뗄ꆣ퇐뺿뷡맻튲믹놾튻훂ꎬ죏캪퓚쓇킩맜샭닣돖막뇈샽뷏룟ꎬ듺샭돉놾쿠뛔뷏룟뗄릫쮾엉랢막샻폈웤쫇쿖뷰막샻ꎬ쓜릻쿔훸복짙듺샭돉놾ꎻ춬쪱막샻헾닟쓜릻ퟷ캪튻훖릫쮾훎샭킧맻솼뫃탅뫅쿲췢뷧뒫뗝ꎬ컈뚨뗄막샻헾닟믡쪹췢늿춶헟뛔릫쮾뗄캴살놧폐솼뫃뗄풤웚ꎬ듓뛸뛔릫쮾뗄막볛닺짺믽벫뗄펰쿬ꆣ떫춬쪱막샻헾닟폈웤쫇쿖뷰막샻튲뿉쓜믡돉캪뿘막막뚫틆릫쮾닺ꎬ쟖몦훐킡막뚫샻틦뗄튻훖쫖뛎ꆣ 뗚죽뷚 엉쿖헾닟폫믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟 퓚퇐뺿막샻훐뛏벰쫗랢뇤뮯뛔믺릹춶헟돖막펰쿬랽쏦ꎬMichaelyꎬThaler and Womackꎨ1995ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻쿔쪾퓚막샻훐뛏탅쾢릫늼뫳믺릹쯹폐좨늢쎻폐랢짺쿔훸뇤뮯ꆣ폫듋늻춬ꎬBrav and Heatonꎨ1998ꎩ좴랢쿖떱쏀맺ꆶ맍풱췋택12
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 쫕죫놣헏램낸ꆷ벴ERISA램낸냤늼뫳ꎬ퓚막샻훐뛏탅쾢릫늼잰뫳믺릹쯹폐좨돶쿖쿂붵ꆣBinayꎨ2001ꎩ춬쪱뛔막샻훐뛏뫍막샻쫗랢뗄쟩뿶뷸탐볬퇩ꎬ뷡맻랢쿖퓚막샻훐뛏뫳믺릹쯹폐좨쿔훸쿂붵ꎬ뛸퓚막샻쫗랢뫳믺릹쯹폐좨돶쿖쿔훸짏짽ꆣ 퓚막샻럖엤쫇럱펰쿬믺릹춶헟돖막랽쏦ꎬHotchikssꎬEdith and Lawrenceꎨ2003ꎩ죏캪막샻럖엤믡펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막ꎬ쟒쯦ퟅ막샻횧뢶싊뗄퓶볓ꎬ믺릹돖막뇈샽쿠펦튲믡쳡룟ꆣGrinstein and Michae1y(2005)뛔쏀맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄막샻헾닟폫믺릹춶헟돖막맘쾵ퟷ쇋쪵횤럖컶ꎬ뷡맻랢쿖엉쿖쓜릻펰쿬믺릹춶헟돖막ꎬ믺릹춶헟늻쾲뮶쓇킩늻엉쿖뗄릫쮾ꎬ뛸퓚엉쿖릫쮾훐폖룼쟣쿲폚쓇킩횧뢶뷏짙막샻뗄릫쮾ꎬ듋췢ꎬ믺릹춶헟욫뫃쓇킩믘릺막럝뗄릫쮾ꎬ뛸떱훐폖룼욫뫃쓇킩폐맦싉믘릺뗄릫쮾ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ쯻쏇튲랢쿖믺릹춶헟돖막늻믡뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟폐펰쿬ꆣ 퓚믺릹돖막쓜럱펰쿬막샻럖엤랽쏦ꎬShortꎬZhang and Keaseyꎨ2002ꎩ뗄퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쳡룟퓲막샻엉쿖쮮욽튲믡쯦횮퓶볓ꎬ뛸맜샭닣돖막뇈샽쳡룟쪱막샻엉쿖쮮욽좴믡붵뗍ꆣDavids(2002)죏캪ꎬ퓚쏀맺뗄룷샠믺릹춶헟훐ꎬ놣쿕믹뷰뫍퇸샏믹뷰돖막뛔릫쮾퓶볓막샻럖엤뻶닟폐ퟅ뷏듳뗄펰쿬솦ꆣSooJung KimꎬWonsik Sul and Shin AE Kang(2010)틔2001-2007쓪퓚몫맺놾쫐뎡훐믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뎬맽5%뗄짏쫐릫쮾캪퇹놾뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ웤뷡맻뇭쏷퓚헢킩릫쮾훐ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽풽룟ꎬ퓲짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽튲풽룟ꎬ뛾헟볤돊쿖쿔훸헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 맺쓚뗄퇐뺿훷튪폐:뫺탱퇴뫍컢쟯(2004)뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뷡맻뇭쏷폐믹뷰돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽쿔훸룟폚쎻폐믹뷰돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ늢죏캪짏쫐릫쮾뗄막샻헾닟펰쿬믺릹춶헟돖막ꆣ컌뫩늨뫍컢쫀얩(2007)뗄퇐뺿랢쿖퓚2002-2004쓪볤ꎬ폐믺릹돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻쮮욽쿔훸룟폚쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ엉쿖릫쮾뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쿔훸룟폚늻엉쿖릫쮾ꎬ엉쿖쮮욽돉캪춶헟릹붨춶ퟩ뫏뗄훘튪뇪ힼꎬ떫쫇믺릹춶헟돖막뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ샮룕뫍헅몣퇠ꎨ2009ꎩ틔2000-2009쓪돽뷰죚샠뗄A막짏쫐릫쮾13
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 ퟷ캪퇐뺿퇹놾ꎬ첽쳖믺릹돖막뛔뫬샻럖엤뗄뚯믺쫇럱폐헧뇰쓜솦ꎬ뷡맻쿔쪾떱돶폚붵뗍듺샭돉놾캪쒿뗄쪱믺릹춶헟믡돖막ꎬ쟒돖막뇈샽폫엉쿖쮮욽쿔훸헽쿠맘ꎻ뛸떱쒿뗄쫇캪쟖햼훐킡막뚫샻틦쪱ꎬ믺릹춶헟늻믡돖막ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ떱믺릹춶헟돖막쪱ꎬ쫐뎡튲믡죏뿉웤ퟶ램ꎬ믡룸폨릫쮾룼룟뗄볛횵ꎬ쟒믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽풽룟ꎬ헢훖볛횵믡쿠펦풽룟ꆣ ퟛ뫏짏쫶맛뗣ꎬ컒쏇랢쿖맺췢뛔폚믺릹춶헟돖막폫엉쿖헾닟횮볤맘쾵뗄퇐뺿뇈뷏뛠ꎬ듳뛠쫽톧헟죏캪믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟뛾헟볤뻹쓜릻쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ쟒뛾헟돊쿖돶헽쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ떫춬쪱튲폐톧헟죏캪믺릹춶헟돖막뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟쎻폐펰쿬ꎬ횻쫇짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟컼틽쇋믺릹춶헟돖막뛸틑ꆣ맺쓚맘폚헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿쿠뛔뷏짙ꎬ뷡싛튲듦퓚튻뚨뗄닮틬ꎬ폐뗄죏캪뛾헟뻹쿔훸펰쿬뛔랽ꎬ튲폐뗄죏캪믺릹돖막뛔엉쿖헾닟쎻폐펰쿬ꎬ뮹폐뗄죏캪엉쿖헾닟늢늻ퟜ쫇쓜릻컼틽믺릹돖막ꎬ뛸쫇듦퓚튻뚨뗄쳵볾ꆣퟷ헟죏캪ꎬ퓬돉헢훖퇐뺿뷡맻닮틬뗄풭틲뿉쓜퓚폚헢킩톧헟쪹폃뗄쫇막룄잰뗄쫽뻝뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ뛸막룄잰평폚듳솿막럝늻쓜쇷춨ꎬ퓬돉믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뷏킡ꎬ뛔짏쫐릫쮾뺭펪뻶닟뗄뮰폯좨튲늻잿ꎬ틲뛸믺릹춶헟돖막늻쓜릻쿔훸펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖ꆣ늢쟒평폚쓇쪱놾쫐뎡훆뛈늻릻붡좫ꎬ뛠쫽믺릹춶헟룼풸틢톡퓱믱좡뛌웚닮볛쫕틦ꎬ틲뛸엉쿖헾닟뛔믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟뗄펰쿬튲늻쓇쎴쿔훸ꆣ 뗚쯄뷚 컄쿗ퟜ뷡 춨맽ퟜ뷡맺쓚췢쿠맘컄쿗뛔헢죽랽쏦뗄퇐뺿ꎬ컒쏇랢쿖맺췢뛔폚헢벸랽쏦뗄퇐뺿뇈뷏춸뎹ꎬ짦벰뗄쏦룼맣ꎬ튲룼볓짮죫ꆣ쿠뇈뷏뛸퇔ꎬ컒맺맘폚헢벸랽쏦뗄퇐뺿튪쿠뛔잷좱킩ꎬ룼뛠뗄쫇듓믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭킧맻뗈랽쏦살뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ뛸펰쿬믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭틲쯘ꆢ믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭랽쪽뫍믺릹춶헟돖막폫막샻헾닟뗈랽쏦퇐뺿뗄쿠뛔뷏짙ꎬ짮뛈튲늻릻ꎬ뮹쎻폐탎돉튻룶붡좫뗄퇐뺿쳥쾵ꆣ떱좻ꎬ퓬돉헢훖쿖쿳뗄풭틲뇈뷏뢴퓓ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ컒맺믡볆샭싛퇐뺿웰늽뷏췭ꎬ좱랦튻킩믹뒡탔뗄샭싛퇐뺿ꎬ룼뛠뗄쫇쪹폃컒맺뗄쫽14
뗚뛾헂 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 뻝살횱뷓쳗폃컷랽뗄쪵횤랽램ꎬ헢퇹쯤좻튲쓜릻쮵쏷튻킩쿖쪵탔뗄컊쳢ꎬ떫짮뛈뮹늻릻ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ헢폫컒맺놾쫐뎡붨솢쪱볤늻뎤ꎬ룷랽쏦뗄훆뛈붨짨뚼늻릻좫쏦ꎬ좱랦뷸탐쿠맘퇐뺿쯹뇘튪뗄튻킩쳵볾폐맘ꆣ틲듋ꎬ헢튲퓬돉쇋맺쓚뗄퇐뺿틔쪵횤럖컶뻓뛠ꎬ맦랶탔럖컶뷏짙ꎬ퇐뺿쫖램쿠뛔떥튻ꎬ쟒퇐뺿뗄뗣뇈뷏벯훐ꎬ뒴탂탔뮹늻릻ꆣ듋췢ꎬퟷ헟뮹랢쿖믺릹돖막폫엉쿖헾닟뗄쿠맘컄쿗퇐뺿믹놾짏뚼쫇퓚2008쓪믲쫇룼퓧틔잰ꎬ쯹쪹폃뗄쫽뻝튲믹놾짏쫇막룄훐믲쫇막룄잰ꎬ뛔폚쿖뷱틑믹놾췪돉막룄뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟뫍믺릹춶헟돖막뛾헟맘쾵뛸퇔횸떼틢틥짔죵ꎬ놾컄튲뿉쏖늹헢튻늻ퟣꆣ 15
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 뗚튻뷚 샭싛믹뒡 ퟔMiller뫍Modiglianiꎨ1961ꎩ쳡돶훸쏻뗄ꆰMM막샻컞맘싛ꆱ틔살ꎬ막샻샭싛뗄랢햹뻍듓캴춣횹ꎬ늢뺭샺쇋솽룶뷗뛎뗄듳랢햹ꆣ뗚튻룶뷗뛎펿쿖쇋막샻퇐뺿뗄뺭뗤샭싛ꎬ냼삨ꆰ쫖훐쓱ꆱ샭싛ꆢ쮰닮샭싛뗈ꎬ뗚뛾룶뷗뛎퓚듋믹뒡짏폖퇜짺돶쇋죴룉쿖듺막샻샭싛ꎬ냼삨막샻쪣폠샭싛ꆢힷ쯦헟킧펦샭싛ꆢ막샻듺샭샭싛ꆢ막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛ꆢퟔ평쿖뷰쇷샭싛ꆢ탐캪샭싛뗈ꆣ 놾컄퇐뺿뗄훷쿟헽쫇붨솢퓚막샻뗄솽듳쿖듺뺭뗤샭싛ꆪꆪꆰ막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛ꆱ뫍ꆰ막샻듺샭샭싛ꆱ뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ틲듋퓚뷸탐샭싛럖컶뫍쪵횤퇐뺿잰폐뇘튪닻쫶놾컄킴ퟷ뗄헢솽듳샭싛믹뒡ꆣ 튻ꆢ막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛 막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛쫇횸릫쮾엉랢막샻뗄탅뫅ꎬ쓜릻퓚폐킧뗄놾쫐뎡훐뗃떽톸쯙뒫뗝ꎬ놻쫐뎡쯹컼쫕ꎬ늢뮯캪뻟쳥뗄쫐뎡랴펳ꆣ뛸컒쏇탨튪힢틢뗄쫇막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛뗄ퟮ훘튪믹뒡뇣쫇쫐뎡쫇폐킧뗄ꎬ횻폐쫐뎡쫇폐킧뗄ꎬ막샻탅뫅훐쯹몬뗄훮뛠탅쾢뒫뗝룸췢늿춶헟뫳ꎬ닅쓜릻뛔췢늿춶헟뗄쿠맘춶뻶닟닺짺펰쿬ꎬ럱퓲엉랢막샻붫늻쓜퓚쫐뎡짏쫕떽죎뫎랴펦ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ퓚닻쫶막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛잰컒쏇쫗쿈탨튪첽쳖폐킧쫐뎡샭싛ꆣ ꎨ튻ꎩ폐킧쫐뎡샭싛 맘폚쫐뎡폐킧컊쳢뗄싛쫶ퟮ퓧뿉ힷ쯝떽1900쓪램맺뺭볃톧볒Bachelierꎨ1900ꎩ쏨쫶뗄쯦믺폎ퟟ쒣탍ꎬ쯻죏캪펦ퟱ톭릫욽뗄볛룱탐캪ꎬ춶믺헟붫늻믡6뗃떽웚췻샻죳ꆣSamuelsonꎨ1965ꎩ퓚퇐뺿쯦믺폎ퟟ샭싛뫳ꎬ뷒쪾쇋폐킧쫐뎡웚 6 Bachelier,Louis,Theory of Speculation in Cootner ed. The Random Characters of Stock Market Prices[M],MIT press,1964:17-68. 16
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 7췻쫕틦쒣탍훐뗄ꆰ릫욽늩?ꆱ풭퓲ꆣFamaꎨ1970ꎩퟜ뷡쇋잰죋뗄뷡싛ꎬ쳡돶쇋8튻룶췪헻뗄샭싛뿲볜ꎬ튲벴폐킧쫐뎡샭싛ꆣ Fama붫폐킧쫐뎡뮮럖캪죽샠ꎺꎨ1ꎩ죴떱잰뗄막볛쓜릻췪좫뗘랴펳좫늿샺쪷탅쾢ꎬ퓲떱잰쫐뎡캪죵쪽폐킧쫐뎡ꆣ웤몬틥쫇퓚룃쫐뎡훐ꎬ떱췢늿춶헟뷶룹뻝샺쪷탅쾢ퟶ돶춶뻶닟쪱붫늻믡믱뗃뛮췢샻죳ꆣꎨ2ꎩ죴떱잰막볛쓜릻췪좫랴펳쯹폐릫뾪뗄탅쾢ꎬ퓲떱잰쫐뎡캪냫잿쪽폐킧쫐뎡ꆣ웤몬틥쫇퓚헢룶쫐뎡훐ꎬ췢늿춶헟룹뻝튻쟐릫뾪뗄탅쾢ퟶ돶춶뻶닟쪱붫늻믡믱뗃뛮췢펯샻ꆣꎨ3ꎩ죴떱잰막볛쓜릻췪좫랴펳튻쟐릫뾪뗄뫍럇릫뾪뗄탅쾢ꎬ퓲떱잰쫐뎡캪잿쪽폐킧쫐뎡ꆣ웤몬틥쫇퓚떱잰쫐뎡훐ꎬ췢늿춶헟룹뻝쯹폐뗄릫뾪뫍럇릫뾪뗄탅쾢ퟶ돶춶뻶닟쪱붫늻믡믱뗃뛮췢펯샻ꆣ맺췢훮뛠쪵횤퇐뺿틑뺭횤쏷ꎬ얷쏀뗈랢듯맺볒뗄놾쫐뎡믹놾짏틑뺭듯떽쇋냫잿쪽폐킧쮮욽ꆣ헫뛔컒맺놾쫐뎡ꎬ맺쓚탭뛠톧헟튲ퟶ쇋쿠맘퇐뺿ꎬ뷡싛룷틬ꎬ폐뗄죏캪뮹쎻폐듯떽죵쪽폐킧ꎬ폐뗄죏캪틑뺭듯떽쇋죵쪽폐킧ꎬ떫뮹캴떽듯냫잿쪽폐킧ꎬ늻맽듳뛠쫽톧헟뮹쫇죏뿉쇋틑듯죵쪽ꎬ짐캴듯냫잿쪽뗄맛뗣ꆣ 폐킧쫐뎡샭싛쫇닆컱맜샭뗄믹뒡샭싛ꎬ냼삨Markowitzꎨ1959ꎩ뗄뻹횵랽닮춶ퟩ뫏샭싛ꆢSharpeꎨ1964ꎩ뗄놾닺뚨볛쒣탍ꆢBlack-Scholesꎨ1973ꎩ뗄웚좨뚨볛샭싛ꆢMiller-Modiglianiꎨ1961ꎩ뗄놾뷡릹샭싛뗈퓚쓚뗄훮뛠닆컱샭싛뚼쫇붨솢퓚폐킧쫐뎡샭싛믹뒡짏뗄ꎬ틲뛸폐킧쫐뎡샭싛튲놻돆캪쿖듺닆컱샭싛믹쪯ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛 막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛틔Bhattacharyaꎨ1979)ꆢJohn and Williamsꎨ1985ꎩ틔벰Miller and Rockꎨ1985ꎩ캪듺뇭ꎬ쯻쏇춨맽럅쯉MM뚨샭훐탅쾢뛔돆뗄볙짨ꎬ붨솢쇋막샻탅뫅쒣탍ꆣ쯻쏇죏캪ꎬퟷ캪웳튵쓚늿죋뗄맜샭닣뛔웳튵떱잰벰 7 Samuelson,Paul,Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly[J],Industrial Management Review, 1965(6):41-49. 8 Fama,.,Efficient Capital Market:A Review of Theory and Empirical Work[J],Journal of Finance,1970,25(2): 383-417. 17
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 캴살풤웚뗄쇋뷢쟩뿶튻뚨믡뇈췢늿춶헟뛠ꎬ쮫랽뒦폚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ뛸막샻헽뫃뻍쫇튻쳵얦듸ꎬ퓚폐킧뗄놾쫐뎡훐ꎬ막샻붫훮죧웳튵캴살쿖뷰쇷ꆢ맜샭닣뛔캴살뗄펯샻풤웚뗈탅뫅뒫뗝룸췢늿춶헟ꎬ늢뷸뛸펰쿬떽춶헟뛔웳튵뗄풤웚벰춶탐캪ꆣ 막샻탅뫅쒣탍뗄샭싛믹뒡퓚폚ꎬ뛔폚쓇킩맜샭닣풤웚캴살펯샻ힴ뿶솼뫃뗄릫쮾ꎨ춨돆ꆰ잿쫆릫쮾ꆱꎩ뛸퇔ꎬ쯤좻뛔캴살뗄풤웚뮹늻듭ꎬ떫쫇뮹늻훁폚퓚쫕늻떽죎뫎쫕틦뗄쟩탎쿂붫헢훖탅쾢뫁컞듺볛뗄뒫능돶좥ꎬ뇏뺹뛔폚죎뫎웤쯻릫쮾ꎨ춨돆ꆰ죵쫆릫쮾ꆱꎩ살쮵ꎬ헢훖벸뫵뫁컞돉놾뗄랽쪽쫇뫜죝틗쒣럂뗄ꎬ헢퇹믡펰쿬떽췢늿춶헟뛔헢솽훖샠탍릫쮾뗄헧뇰ꎬ틲캪쯹폐뗄릫쮾붫믡놻죏캪쫇춬훊ꆢ컞닮뇰뗄ꎬ틲듋ꎬꆰ잿쫆릫쮾ꆱ뇘탫헒떽튻훖쓜릻붫쯼쏇폫ꆰ죵쫆릫쮾ꆱ9쟸럖뾪살뗄랽램믲쫇릤뻟살듲웆헢훖ힴ첬ꆣ컈뚨뛸돖뻃뗄룟막샻헾닟컞틉믡돉캪듲뾪ꆰ쏜쫒ꆱ뗄튻냑쏘돗ꎬ평폚컈뚨뛸돖뻃뗄룟막샻럖엤늻쫇쯹폐릫쮾뚼쓜릻뢺떣뗄ꎬ쓇킩샻죳뷏짙뛸뛔캴살풤웚튲늻룟뗄릫쮾붫평폚돯듫늻돶쓇쎴뛠쿖뷰뛸붫놻웈듓탐쇐훐췋돶ꎬ쪣쿂뗄붫횻쫇쓇킩닆컱ힴ뿶솼뫃쟒뛔캴살폐솼뫃풤웚뗄ꆰ잿쫆릫쮾ꆱꎬ뇏뺹횻폐쯼쏇닅쓜릻돐떣죧듋룟낺뗄돉놾ꆣퟮ뫳뗄뷡맻뻍쫇헢킩릫쮾붫캪췢늿춶헟쯹뷓쫜ꎬ늢놻룸폨뷏룟뗄횤좯볛룱ꎬ쪹뗃ꆰ잿쫆릫쮾ꆱ퓚뢶돶룟돉놾ꎨ룟쿖뷰막샻ꎩ뗄춬쪱ꎬ튲쫕믱쇋룟막볛뗄틧볛쫕틦ꆣ 믺릹춶헟헽죧짏쏦쯹쫶뗄췢늿춶헟ꎬ죴쫐뎡훐뗄릫쮾뚼늻엉쿖ꎬ뚼늻붫랴펳ퟔ짭ힴ뿶뗄탅뫅뒫뗝룸믺릹춶헟ꎬ쓇쎴믺릹춶헟튲붫컞듓짨볆춶뻶닟ꎬퟮ훕튲붫뫜뿉쓜뗃늻떽죎뫎웚췻샻죳ꆣ떫헽쫇틲캪쓇킩ꆰ잿쫆릫쮾ꆱ늻룊탄놻ꆰ죵쫆릫쮾ꆱ쯹쒣럂ꎬ춨맽톡퓱쪹폃룟쿖뷰막샻뗄헢훖뢶럑탅뫅믺훆ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃믺릹춶헟쓜릻퓚훚뛠릫쮾훐톡퓱쓇킩폐춶잱솦뗄릫쮾뷸탐춶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ막샻쓜릻ퟷ캪튻훖탅뫅ꎬ평맜샭닣뒫뗝룸믺릹춶헟ꎬ늢뷸뛸펰쿬웤춶뻶닟ꆣ 뛾ꆢ막샻듺샭샭싛 9 떱쯹폐릫쮾뻹쫇춬훊ꆢ컞닮뇰쪱ꎬ듋쪱뒦폚믬뫏뻹뫢ힴ첬ꎬ쯹폐릫쮾붫횻쓜믱좡뻹뫢쫐뎡샻죳ꆣ 18
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 뺡맜막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛쓜릻뷢쫍막샻헾닟훐뗄죴룉쿖쿳ꎬ떫퓚폶떽쒳킩쳘쫢쿖쿳쪱ꎬ뮹쫇늻쓜뗃떽뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ뇈죧쒳킩막샻랢럅쮮욽룟뗄릫쮾웤킧틦랴뛸뇈늻짏쓇킩막샻랢럅쮮욽뷏뗍뗄릫쮾ꎬ쒳킩헽뒦폚랢햹웚ꆢ뛔캴살풤웚솼뫃뗄맦쒣뷏킡뗄릫쮾웤막샻랢럅쮮욽좴뗍폚쓇킩틑뺭뒦폚돉쫬웚ꆢ뛔캴살풤웚늻쏷좷뗄맦쒣뷏듳뗄릫쮾ꆣ헢킩쿖쿳뚼폫막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛쿠ꎬ떫좴폖쫇헦쪵듦퓚뗄ꎬ헢횻폐튻룶풭틲쓜릻뷸탐뷢쫍ꎬ벴돽탅뫅뒫뗝뗄풭틲췢ꎬ뮹폐웤쯻풭틲튲뿉쓜믡뛔막샻헾닟닺짺펰쿬ꆣ MM샭싛볙짨웳튵탎돉맽돌훐웵풼췪좫ꎬ쓚늿퓋ퟷ늻뿉횪ꎬ췢늿춶헟횻쓜릻뾴떽춶죫폫닺돶맽돌ꆣ춨맽럅쯉룃볙짨ꎬ뿉틔랢쿖퓚웳튵쓚늿퓋ퟷ맽돌훐듦퓚늻춬샻틦벯췅ꎬ쯻쏇뛔웳튵뗄뺭펪폐늻춬뗄튪쟳늢평듋닺짺샻틦돥춻ꎬ룷벯췅뚼듦퓚캬뮤ퟔ짭샻틦뗄뚯믺ꎬ틲뛸퓚벯췅볤닺짺쇋쯹캽뗄듺샭컊쳢ꆣJensen and Mecklingꎨ1976ꎩ쳡돶ꎬ릫쮾맜샭닣룼뛠뾼싇뗄쫇ퟔ짭뗄샻틦뛸럇막뚫뗄샻틦ꎬ틲듋맜샭닣듦퓚맽뛈춶뫍쎤쒿삩헅뗄뚯믺ꎬ떱웳튵듦퓚뛠폠뷰쪱ꎬ10맜샭닣뿉쓜믡뷸탐뗍킧싊춶ꎬ듓뛸펰쿬떽웳튵볛횵ꆣ 평폚퓚쯹폐좨뇈뷏쯉즢뗄릫쮾샯ꎬ릫쮾쯹폐좨뫍뺭펪좨횮볤뗄럖샫돌뛈뇈뷏듳ꎬ듺샭컊쳢룼죝틗닺짺ꎬ퓚쓇킩ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿룼뛠뗄릫쮾샯듺샭돉놾컊쳢믡룼볓퇏훘ꎬ헢킩퇏훘뗄듺샭돉놾컊쳢ퟮ훕붫믡펰쿬떽릫쮾뗄뺭펪튵벨ꆣ쓇쎴ꎬ폐쎻폐쪲쎴냬램살뷸탐뛴훆쓘ꎿ듰낸쫇뿏뚨뗄ꆣ 웤튻ꎬ듺샭돉놾컊쳢췾킲떽릫쮾튵벨ퟮ훘튪뗄풭틲뻍퓚폚릫쮾맜샭닣폐듳솿뿉릩횧엤뗄ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ틲듋ꎬ복짙듺샭돉놾컊쳢뗄튻룶ퟮ횱뷓냬램뻍쫇복짙맜샭닣뿉횧엤뗄ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿ꆣGrossman and Hartꎨ1980ꎩꆢEasterbrookꎨ1984ꎩ뫍Jensenꎨ1986ꎩ쳡돶ꎬ죧맻붫맜샭닣돖폐뗄ퟔ평뷰뿘훆떽ퟮ뗍쿞뛮ꎬ뻍뿉틔퓚튻뚨쿞뛈쓚뿘훆맜샭닣뗄맽뛈춶탐캪ꎬ맜샭닣뇣늻믡뛔웳튵벨킧듸살캣몦ꎬ쳡룟쿖뷰막샻쮮욽쫇뿘훆ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿뗄폐킧쫖뛎횮튻ꆣRozeff(1982)죏캪ꎬ막샻횧뢶쫇릫쮾ퟮ폅뗄볠뚽쾵춳뗄튻늿럖ꎬ뿉틔폃살붵뗍 10 Jensen,.,William Meckling,Theory of the Firm:Management Behavior,Agency Cost,and Capital Structure[J],Journal of Financial Economics,1976(3):305-360. 19
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 듺샭돉놾ꆣ춨맽랢럅듳솿막샻ꎬ폈웤쫇쿖뷰막샻ꎬ뿉틔복짙ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ쪹뗃맜샭닣늻퓙쓇쎴죝틗쓜릻뗷엤떽ퟣ릻뗄뷰살뷸탐뗍킧싊뗄춶믮뚯ꆣ헢튲쫇캪쪲쎴퓚폐킩쯹폐좨뇈뷏쯉즢뗄릫쮾ꎬ뺡맜뛔캴살뗄풤웚짐늻쏷좷ꎬ튲늻탨튪춨맽랢쯍막샻탅뫅살컼틽췢늿춶헟ꎬ떫좴틀뻉놣돖ퟅ뷏룟뗄막샻횧뢶쮮욽ꆣ 웤뛾ꎬ떱쯹폐좨폫뺭펪좨벸뫵췪좫럖샫쪱ꎬ듺샭돉놾컊쳢뇣늻뿉뇜쏢ꎬ쯼쫇평폚뷏쯉즢뗄쯹폐좨뷡릹쯹떼훂뗄ꎬ쓇쎴복짙듺샭돉놾뗄뗚뛾룶랽램뇣쫇쫊떱뗄뗷헻쯹폐좨뷡릹ꎬ쪹횮뇤뗄룼볓뷴쏜ꆣ늻맽헢훖랽램뗄튻룶좱쿝쫇듋쪱뿉쓜늻믡퓙쫇맜샭닣폫막뚫횮볤뗄듺샭컊쳢ꎬ떫뿉쓜믡뮯캪뿘막막뚫폫훐킡막뚫횮볤뗄듺샭컊쳢ꎬ캪듋ꎬ컒쏇뮹폐뇘튪틽뷸쒳훖볠뚽믺훆살풼쫸뿘막막뚫뗄탐캪ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔춨맽쪹폃엉쿖컼틽믺릹춶헟돖막뗄랽쪽살풼쫸뿘막막뚫뗄탐캪ꎬ춨맽믺릹춶헟믽벫뗄닎폫릫쮾훎샭살쿞훆듳막뚫뗄쟖몦탐캪ꆣ 뗚뛾뷚 쿖ힴ럖컶 잰쏦뚼횻쫇듓샭싛럖컶뗄뷇뛈살뾼달믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖횮볤뿉쓜믡듦퓚뗄쒳킩솪쾵ꎬ캪듋ꎬ컒쏇폐뇘튪듓쪵볹뗄뷇뛈살뛔믺릹춶헟폫엉쿖헾닟뗄쿖ힴ뷸탐럖컶ꎬ틔샭싛뷡뫏쪵볹뗄횸떼랽헫듓룼짮닣듎살첽톰헢뛾헟볤뿉쓜듦퓚뗄솪쾵ꆣ 튻ꆢ믺릹춶헟쿖ힴ럖컶 ꎨ튻ꎩ믺릹춶헟뷧뚨 퓚퇐뺿믺릹춶헟뗄쿠맘컊쳢쪱ꎬ컒쏇폐뇘튪뛔믺릹춶헟룅쓮뗄쓚몭벰11췢퇓ퟶ돶뿆톧뫏샭뗄뷧뚨ꆣ떱잰ꎬ뛔믺릹춶헟룅쓮뗄뷧뚨훷튪폐솽훖맛뗣ꎺ 뗚튻훖쫇쏨쫶탔뗄뷧뚨ꆣ헢훖맛뗣죏캪춨맽퓋폃ퟔ폐뷰믲쫇춨맽룷훖뷰죚릤뻟돯벯뷰뷸탐춶맜샭뗄펯샻탔뷰죚믺릹벴쫇믺릹춶헟ꎬ떱훐볈냼삨 11 놴헾탂ꎬ럫.믺릹춶헟랢햹퇐뺿[M].짏몣ꎺ뢴떩듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ2005ꎺ1-26. 20
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 릲춬믹뷰ꆢ춶틸탐뗈훐뷩믺릹ꎬ폖냼삨짧놣믹뷰뗈웵풼탍믺릹ꎬ뮹냼삨짌튵틸탐뗈듦뿮믺릹ꆣ 뗚뛾훖쫇샭싛탔뗄뷧뚨ꆣ헢훖맛뗣춨뎣죏캪폫룶죋춶헟쿠뛔뗄ꎬ펵폐쒳훖쫐뎡쫆솦뗄펯샻탔뷰죚믺릹벴쫇믺릹춶헟ꆣ헢훖쫐뎡쫆솦룅쓮뇈뷏맣랺ꎬ늻뷶냼삨맦쒣짏뗄폅쫆ꆢ튵죋풱랽쏦뗄폅쫆ꎬ뮹냼삨뛔횤좯볛룱뗄펰쿬솦ꆢ쫐뎡춶샭쓮랽쏦뗄펰쿬솦뗈ꆣ 춨맽ퟛ뫏헢솽훖맛뗣ꎬퟷ헟죏캪샭싛탔뗄뷧뚨쯤좻폐튻뚨뗄샭싛틀뻝ꎬ떫쫇퓚쪵볊훐뇈뷏쓑틔쟸럖뫍뷧뚨ꎬ닙ퟷ탔늻잿ꎬ쏨쫶탔뗄뷧뚨쯤좻닙ퟷ탔룼잿ꎬ떫쫇튲듦퓚뷧뚨늻릻뺫좷뗄좱쿝ꆣퟷ헟죏캪ꎬ믺릹춶헟펦쫇뻟폐튻뚨뗄죋풱뫍퇏쏜뗄ퟩ횯훆뛈ꎬ춨맽뛔냼삨ퟔ폐뷰뫍춶헟춶죫뷰퓚쓚뗄룷샠뷰뷸탐춶맜샭ꎬ늢퓚쒳킩랽쏦펵폐쒳훖쫐뎡쫆솦뗄펯샻탔뷰죚믺릹ꎬ훷튪냼삨룷샠훐뷩믺릹ꎬ죧릲춬믹뷰ꆢ뛔돥믹뷰ꆢ춶틸탐ꆢ좯짌뫍믵뇒쫐뎡믹뷰뗈ꎬ폖냼삨룷샠웵풼탍믺릹ꎬ죧짧놣믹뷰ꆢ놣쿕믹뷰ꆢ퇸샏믹뷰ꆢ웳튵쓪뷰뗈ꎬ뮹냼삨튻킩틔춶펯샻캪쒿뗄뗄짌튵ퟩ횯뗈ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ믺릹춶헟쿖ힴ럖컶 1.믺릹춶헟랢햹맬벣 12 컒맺믺릹춶헟뗄랢햹듳쳥짏뺭샺쇋죽룶뷗뛎ꎺ뗚튻룶뷗뛎쫇짏쫀볍90쓪듺훐웚잰ꎬ훷튪냼삨횤좯릫쮾ꆢ탅췐춶릫쮾뗈ꎬ평폚떱쪱램맦훆뛈룷랽쏦뚼늻릻붡좫ꎬ춶믺릹퓚춶ퟩ뫏맜샭ꆢ럧쿕뿘훆뗈랽쏦뒦폚컞탲ힴ첬ꎬ틲뛸늢늻뻟폐쿖듺틢틥짏믺릹춶헟뗄훷튪쳘헷ꆣ뗚뛾룶뷗뛎쫇1996쓪떽1999쓪6퓂ꎬ헢룶쪱웚평폚헾닟랽쏦뗄맜훆ꎬ맺폐웳튵벰짏쫐릫쮾뗈놻뷻횹뷸죫쫐뎡ꎬ볓짏ꆰ틸횤럖튵ꆱ뗄쪵쪩맽돌틸탐벰쿠맘웳튵좫쏦췋돶쫐뎡듓뛸떼훂횤좯쫐뎡훐뗄믺릹춶헟쫽솿뫍뷰맦쒣듳럹복킡ꎬ믺릹춶믮뚯죱복ꎬ헢룶웚볤뗄믺릹춶헟훷튪냼삨횤좯릫쮾ꆢ탅췐춶릫쮾벰짙쫽쏱펪웳튵ꆣ뗚죽룶뷗뛎쫇듓1999쓪떽쿖퓚ꎬ쯦ퟅꆶ횤좯램ꆷ뗄쪵쪩벰쿠맘헾닟뗄뇤뮯ꎬ냼삨틽죫QFII뗈ꎬ 12 킻뿽탇ꎬ컢튦뚫.싛훐맺릫쮾훎샭룄룯폫믺릹춶헟뗄랢햹[J].뺭볃움싛ꎬ2002(5)ꎺ59-65. 21
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 헢룶웚볤컒맺믺릹춶헟뗄맦쒣늻뛏삩듳ꎬ펰쿬튲죕틦퓶잿ꆣ 2.믺릹춶헟쿖ힴ럖컶 뻟쳥떽컒맺ꎬ믺릹춶헟훷튪쫇룷샠횤좯춶믹뷰ꎨ냼삨럢뇕쪽믹뷰뫍뾪럅쪽믹뷰ꎩꆢ뫏룱뺳췢믺릹춶헟QFIIꆢ뫏룱뺳쓚믺릹춶헟QDIIꆢ횤좯릫쮾ꆢ짌튵틸탐ꆢ룷훖웵풼탍믹뷰ꎨ짧놣믹뷰ꆢ놣쿕믹뷰ꆢ퇸샏믹뷰ꆢ웳튵쓪뷰뗈ꎩꆢ룷샠쮽쒼믹뷰뗈ꆣ웤훐ꎬ폖틔횤좯춶믹뷰ꆢQFIIꆢ횤좯릫쮾ꆢ룷샠웵풼탍믹뷰맦쒣ퟮ듳ꎬ퓚믺릹춶헟훐쯹햼럝뛮튲ퟮ뛠ꎬ놾컄붫훷튪뛔헢벸샠믺릹춶헟뗄쿖ힴ뷸탐럖컶ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ횤좯춶믹뷰 컒맺횤좯춶믹뷰뗄랢햹뿉틔럖캪솽룶훷튪뷗뛎ꎺ뗚튻뷗뛎쫇퓚컒맺놾쫐뎡붨솢횮돵벴1991쓪훁2000쓪ꎬ헢뛎웚볤훷튪쫇럢뇕쪽믹뷰뗄랢햹뫍헻뛙뷗뛎ꎻ뗚뛾뷗뛎쫇ퟔ2000쓪훐웚뾪쪼훁뷱ꎬ헢쫇뾪럅쪽믹뷰뗄웰늽뫍랢햹뷗뛎ꆣ 1991쓪ꆰ커몺횤좯춶믹뷰ꆱ뫍ꆰ짮?쓏즽럧쿕춶믹뷰ꆱ럖뇰뺭훐맺죋쏱틸탐커몺럖탐뫍짮?쫐쓏즽쟸죋쏱헾뢮엺ힼ짨솢ꎬ돉캪컒맺ퟮ퓧뗄튻엺춶믹뷰ꆣ듋뫳ꎬ컒맺폖폐훚뛠춶믹뷰뾪쪼짨솢퓋펪ꎬ떫퓚듋웚볤좫늿뚼쫇럢뇕쪽믹뷰ꎬ뺭펪욷훖맽폚떥튻ꎬ춶믮뚯늻릻믮풾ꆣ2001쓪ꎬ횤볠믡헽쪽엺ힼ짨솢쫗볒뾪럅쪽믹뷰ꆪꆪ뮪낲뒴탂횤좯춶믹뷰ꎬ듋뫳ꎬ룷훖샠탍뗄뾪럅쪽믹뷰죧폪뫳뒺쯱냣엮늪랢햹웰살ꆣ쯦ퟅ2003쓪ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺횤좯춶믹뷰램ꆷ뗄쪵쪩ꎬ횤좯춶믹뷰뗄랢햹튲뾪쪼ퟟ쿲헽맦ꎬ쯤좻쒿잰뛔폚춶믹뷰돖막죔좻듦퓚훮뛠훆뛈탔풼쫸ꎬ떫쫇컒맺횤좯춶믹뷰틀좻랢햹톸쯙ꎬ늢믽벫뗄랢믓쇋쯼쏇ퟷ캪막뚫뗄좨틦ꆣ뷘횹2010쓪2퓂ꎬ컒맺릲폐729볒횤좯춶믹뷰ꎬ쟒13쫽솿뮹퓚늻뛏퓶볓ꎬ퓚컒맺놾쫐뎡훐뗄랢믓뗄ퟷ폃튲죕쟷훘튪ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ뫏룱뺳췢믺릹춶헟QFII 2002쓪ꎬ횤볠믡뫍훐맺죋쏱틸탐솪뫏랢늼쇋ꆶ뫏룱뺳췢믺릹춶헟뺳쓚횤좯춶맜샭퓝탐냬램ꆷꎬ쪹뗃훐맺놾쫐뎡퓚뛔췢뾪럅짏싵돶쇋튻듳늽ꎬ춨맽톭 13 쫽뻝살풴폚횤볠믡췸햾 22
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 탲붥뷸뗄틽뷸뫏룱뺳췢믺릹춶헟ꎬ훰늽쪵쿖훐맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄췪좫뛔췢뾪럅ꆣ 듳뛠쫽퇐뺿뚼죏캪QFII뗄틽죫붫룸훐맺횤좯쫐뎡듸살룹놾탔룄뇤ꎬ뛔훐맺놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹닺짺짮풶펰쿬ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ쪵쪩QFII폐쿞뛈틽뷸뺳췢믺릹춶헟ꎬ붫볓뿬맺쓚횤좯쫐뎡춶훷쳥뛠풪뮯ꎬ폐샻폚엠폽솼뫃뗄뺺헹뮷뺳ꎬ듙뷸맺쓚춶믺릹뗄돉뎤ꆣ쯤좻헢킩펰쿬퓚뛌웚쓚늻듳뿉쓜쪵쿖ꎬ떫쿠탅듓뎤풶뾴QFII튻뚨쓜릻랢믓웤펦폐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뷘횹2010쓪2퓂ꎬ컒맺놾쫐뎡릲폐107볒QFII춶헟ꎬ쟒춶뛮뛈쿠뇈횮잰틑뺭뗃떽뷏듳럹뛈뗄쳡짽ꎬ뛔컒맺놾쫐뎡뗄펰14쿬헽죕틦볓잿ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ횤좯릫쮾 듓컒맺뗄뗚튻볒좯짌ꆪꆪ짮?뺭볃쳘쟸횤좯릫쮾폚1987쓪9퓂퓚짮?떮짺틔살ꎬ좯짌뗄랢햹뻍듓캴춣횹맽ꎬ랢햹쯙뛈쪮럖톸쯙ꎬ틑뺭돉뎤캪컒맺횤좯쫐뎡짏뗄튻횧훘튪솦솿ꆣ 떫춬쪱컒쏇튲랢쿖ꎬ쯤좻맦쒣늻뛏삩듳ꎬ떫쫇횤좯릫쮾뗄훊솿좴솼?늻웫ꎬ폐킩캪쇋춼튻쪱횮샻ꎬ늻맋훐킡춶헟뗄샻틦ꎬ샻폃ퟔ짭뗄맦쒣폫튵폅쫆닙ퟝ막볛ꎬ듓훐좡뎬뛮샻틦ꆣ평폚횤좯릫쮾돐떣뗄쫇횤좯뗄싲뷸싴돶ꎬퟷ폃뇈뷏훘듳ꎬ캪캬뮤놾쫐뎡뗄컈뚨ꎬ뷼쓪살ꎬ횤볠믡뗈쿠맘볠뚽믺릹돶첨쇋튻쾵쇐뗄듫쪩살볓잿뛔좯짌뗄볠뿘ꎬ럀횹돶쿖닙ퟝ막볛ꆢ쟖몦훐킡막뚫샻틦뗄쫂볾랢짺ꆣ뷘횹2010쓪8퓂뗗ꎬ틑폐105볒좯짌퓚펪ꎬ쯦ퟅ훐맺놾쫐뎡퓚좫쟲15놾쫐뎡짏펰쿬솦뗄죕틦볓짮ꎬ쿠탅좯짌퓚늻뻃뗄붫살믡폐튻랬룼듳뗄ퟷ캪ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ짧놣믹뷰 ퟔ1997쓪뛔퇸샏믹뷰뷸탐룄룯돉솢짧믡놣헏믹뷰틔살ꎬ웹뷱컒맺짧놣믹뷰뗄랢햹틑뺭뺭샺쇋쪮폠룶쓪춷ꆣ쒿잰뗄훆뛈쫇룹뻝1997쓪냤늼뗄ꆶ맺컱풺맘폚붨솢춳튻뗄웳튵횰릤퇸샏놣쿕훆뛈뗄뻶뚨ꆷ뗄뿲볜뛸릹붨뗄ꎬ뷰살풴룹뻝룶죋폫짧믡춳돯뗄풭퓲ꎬ냼삨죽룶늿럖ꎬ횰릤뷉쓉ꆢ웳튵샻죳뿛돽벰헾뢮닆헾쳡릩ꆣ 14 쫽뻝살풴폚횤볠믡췸햾 15 쫽뻝살풴폚횤볠믡췸햾 23
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 2003쓪짧놣믹뷰헽쪽뷸죫컒맺놾쫐뎡ꎬ짧놣믹뷰뗄죫쫐뛔폚헻룶놾쫐뎡뛸퇔컞틉뻟폐훘튪뗄틢틥ꆣ짧놣믹뷰믹폚웤ퟔ짭뗄쳘쫢쳘뗣ꎬ늻첫쟣쿲폚ힷ쟳룟럧쿕뗄횤좯ꎬ뛸룼쟣쿲폚쓇킩럧쿕뷏뗍ꆢ쫕틦뇈뷏욽컈뗄횤좯ꎬ헢뛔폚캬뮤놾쫐뎡뗄컈뚨컞틉웰떽쇋헲뚨볁뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ짧놣믹뷰춨뎣믡놻캯췐폚웤쯻춶믺릹뷸탐맜샭ꎬ폈웤쫇횤좯춶믹뷰ꎬ헢튲캪웤쯻믺릹춶헟뗄뺭펪쳡릩쇋ퟣ릻뗄뷰ꎬ랱죙쇋컒맺뗄횤좯쫐뎡ꆣ뷘횹2009쓪쓪뗗ꎬ평좫맺짧믡놣헏믹뷰샭쫂믡맜샭뗄믹뷰닺ퟜ뛮틚풪ꎬ웤훐ꎺ짧놣믹뷰믡횱뷓춶닺틚풪ꎬ햼뇈%ꎬ캯췐춶닺틚풪ꎬ햼뇈%ꎬ16쓪뻹쫕틦싊캪%ꆣ 춨맽짏쏦뗄럖컶ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖믺릹춶헟뗄맦쒣틑쪮럖엓듳ꎬ뛔놾쫐뎡뗄ퟛ뫏펰쿬틑뎬맽쇋죎뫎웤쯻떥룶믺릹믲룶죋ꎬ틑돉캪컒쏇퓚퇐뺿훐맺놾쫐뎡쪱뇘탫튪뾼싇뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ컒쏇폐샭평쿠탅쿖뷱뗄믺릹춶헟폐틢풸튲폐쓜솦닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ싄탐ꆰ막뚫믽벫훷틥ꆱꎬ캪컒맺놾쫐뎡뗄랱죙폫컈뚨ퟶ돶ퟔ틑뗄릱쿗ꆣ 뛾ꆢ짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻헾닟쿖ힴ럖컶 ꎨ튻ꎩ막샻헾닟 막샻헾닟쫇횸릫쮾퓚욽뫢쿠맘벯췅샻틦뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뛔폚쫇럱엉랢막샻ꆢ펦떱죧뫎엉랢막샻뗄횸떼닟싔ꆣ막샻헾닟짦벰떽웳튵뷰뗄럖엤ꆢ돯벯뗈쿠맘컊쳢ꎬ뫏샭뗄막샻헾닟뛔릫쮾뛸퇔틢틥훘듳ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ쓜캪릫쮾믽뻛ퟣ릻뗄죋웸ꎬ컼틽떽춶헟돖막ꎬ듓뛸퓚횤좯쫐뎡훐쓜릻캬돖ퟣ릻룟뗄막볛ꎬ쪹웳튵쓜릻믱좡막볛틧볛뗄쫕틦ꆣ웤듎ꎬ솼뫃뗄막샻헾닟평폚쓜릻복짙듺샭돉놾ꎬ뮺뫍맜샭닣뗄톹솦ꎬ듙뷸맜샭닣뫍막뚫룼볓뫍킳쿠뒦ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ솼뫃뗄막샻헾닟쓜릻쪹웳튵뗄놾뷡릹놣돖퓚튻룶뷏뫃뗄쮮욽짏ꎬ복짙돯쯹듸살뗄훮뛠럧쿕ꎬ놣횤웳튵붡뾵컈뚨뗄랢햹ꆣ평폚막샻헾닟뮹맘쾵떽웳튵뗄튻킩쟐짭샻틦ꎬ죧퓙죚뗈ꎬ 16 쫽뻝살풴폚좫맺짧믡놣헏믹뷰샭쫂믡췸햾 24
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 틲뛸웤퓚짏쫐릫쮾죕뎣뻶닟훐뗄뗘캻튲뇤뗃풽살풽훘튪ꎬ틽웰쇋샭싛뷧폫쪵컱뷧뗄벫듳맘힢ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ쿖뷰막샻폫막욱막샻 17췵뮯돉ꎨ2006ꎩ죏캪ꎬ막샻뗄횧뢶탎쪽훷튪냼삨닺쪽막샻ꆢ햮좨쪽막샻벰막좨쪽막샻죽훖ꎬ웤훐닺쪽막샻쫇틔닺뗄탎쪽랢럅막샻ꎬ냼삨쿖뷰막샻뫍닆닺막샻ꎬ폖틔쿖뷰막샻ퟮ뎣볻ꎻ햮좨쪽막샻쫇릫쮾틔뢺햮뗄탎쪽랢럅막샻ꎬ듋훖탎쪽뷏늻뎣볻ꎻ막좨쪽막샻튲벴막욱막샻ꆣ놾컄훘뗣첽쳖쿖뷰막샻폫막욱막샻ꎬ뛸웤쯻뗄횧뢶탎쪽죧막럝믘릺ꆢ막럝럖룮ꆢ엤막ꆢ퓶막뗈횻쫇막샻뗄퇜짺탎쪽ꎬ퓚듋뻍늻폨틔튻튻첽쳖ꆣ 1ꆢ쿖뷰막샻 쿖뷰막샻쫇쿖뷱짏쫐릫쮾훐쪹폃ퟮ웕뇩뗄막샻헾닟릤뻟ꎬ쫇붫릫쮾뺻샻죳훐돽좥릫믽뷰뗄늿럖틔쿖뷰뗄탎쪽횱뷓럖엤룸막뚫ꆣ톡퓱쪹폃쿖뷰막샻횧뢶탎쪽뗄릫쮾탨튪쳘뇰맘힢ퟔ짭뗄쿖뷰쇷쟩뿶ꎬ횻폐퓚쿖뷰쇷ퟣ릻돤ퟣꎬ쓜릻펦뢶퓚캴살뿉쓜돶쿖뗄룷훖쟩뿶쪱닅뿉럅탄뗄쪹폃ꎬ죧뛌웚뢺햮뫍벴붫떽웚뗄뎤웚뢺햮ꆢ뿉쓜돶쿖뗄뫃뗄춶믺믡뗈ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ뮹탨튪맘힢죧맻쿖뷰쇷늻ퟣ뗄쟩뿶쿂탨튪쪹폃뫎훖돯릤뻟뷸탐돯ꎬ뛸헢뛔폚릫쮾캴살뗄랢햹뛸퇔튲쫇뫜훘튪뗄ꆣ죴쪹폃햮좨탔릤뻟돯ꎬ폐뿉쓜퓶볓릫쮾캴살뗄닆컱룜룋럧쿕ꎬ쟒뚨웚뗄샻쾢횧뢶뛔릫쮾뛸퇔튲쫇튻뇊늻킡뗄뢺떣ꎬ뛸죴쪹폃좨틦탔릤뻟돯ꎬ뻍폐뿉쓜퓚캴살웚볤쾡쫍쿖폐막뚫좨틦ꎬ붵뗍쿖폐막뚫펰쿬솦ꆣ 듓ꆰ막샻듺샭샭싛ꆱ뫍ꆱ막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛ꆰ돶랢ꎬ쿖뷰막샻컞틉쫇막뚫쏇ퟮ병뗄막샻헾닟릤뻟ꎬ튲ퟮ쓜릻랴펳릫쮾쓚늿훎샭뗄헦쪵쟩뿶ꆣ릫쮾춨맽랢럅쿖뷰막샻쓜릻복짙쓚늿쇴듦뗄듳솿쿖뷰쇷ꎬ붵뗍쇋맜샭닣쪹폃쿖뷰쇷뷸탐뗍킧싊춶뗄럧쿕ꎬ뇜쏢쯰몦떽웳튵튵벨ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ춨맽랢럅쿖뷰막샻ꎬ쓜릻붫웳튵떱잰뷏뫃뗄뺭펪튵벨뫍뛔캴살솼뫃뗄풤웚뗈믽벫탅뫅뒫뗝룸췢늿춶헟ꎬ쳡짽춶헟뗄춶탅탄ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃웳튵퓚캴살웚볤쓜릻믱좡막볛틧볛쫕틦늢쫕믱 17 췵뮯돉.닆컱맜샭퇐뺿[M].놱뺩ꎺ훐맺뷰죚돶냦짧ꎬ2006ꎺ97-126. 25
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 믽벫솼뫃뗄짹폾ꆣ 2ꆢ막욱막샻 돽쿖뷰막샻췢ꎬ막욱막샻튲쫇짏쫐릫쮾엉랢막샻쪱ퟮ뎣폃뗄튻훖탎쪽ꎬ쫇횸붫릫쮾뗄캴럖엤샻죳믲펯폠릫믽늿럖뮯캪막놾ꎬ틔뫬샻뗄탎쪽쿲막뚫랢럅ꆣ막욱막샻폫쿖뷰막샻ퟮ듳뗄늻춬뻍퓚폚쯼늻믡떼훂쿖뷰쇷돶웳튵ꎬ튲늻믡퓶볓웳튵뗄닺ꎬ떫쫇쯼믡퓶볓웕춨막막욱뗄쫽솿ꎬ쪹뗃쎿막막욱뗄막뚫좨틦헋쏦볛횵복짙ꎬ늻맽헢솽헟쿠뗖쿻ꎬ막뚫좨틦붫늻믡퓶볓ꆣ 뛔짏쫐릫쮾살쮵ꎬ막욱막샻펦룃쯣쫇튻룶ꆰ컯쏀볛솮ꆱ뗄막샻횧뢶탎쪽ꎬ틲캪쯼볈늻폃복짙릫쮾ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷ꎬ폖놣돖쇋막샻랢럅ꎬ펮뗃쇋솼뫃뗄짹폾ꆣ틲뛸떱웳튵쿖뷰쇷뷴헅늻쫊틋랢럅쿖뷰막샻ꎬ늢쟒폖탨튪랢럅막샻살퓶볓춶헟탅탄쪱ꎬ랢럅막욱막샻뻸뛔쫇ퟮ병톡퓱ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ뎤웚횻횧뢶막욱막샻뛸늻횧뢶쿖뷰막샻뛔막뚫뛸퇔쫇쇮죋뻚즥뗄ꎬ틲캪좨틦럝뛮뗄늻뇤ꎬ막뚫벸뫵쎻폐듓릫쮾뗄막욱막샻뗄헾닟훐뗃떽죎뫎쪵훊탔뗄쪵믝ꆣ틲듋ꎬ웳튵퓚막샻헾닟뗄훆뚨맽돌훐탨튪뾼싇뛠랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꎬ탨튪좨뫢룷랽샻틦쿠맘헟뗄샻틦ꎬ훆뚨돶쫊뫏웳튵쿖ힴ폖늻훁폚쪹웳튵퓚캴살웚볤놳뢺맽훘냼뢤뗄막샻헾닟ꆣ 평폚놾컄쫇듓ꆰ막샻듺샭샭싛ꆱ뫍ꆰ막샻탅뫅뒫뗝샭싛ꆱ뗄믹뒡짏뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ뛸쿖뷰막샻쿠뛔폚웤쯻막샻헾닟뛸퇔뛔폚헢솽룶샭싛뗄뷢쫍솦ퟮ잿ꎬ쓜릻뫜뫃뗄뒫뗝믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄믹놾쟩뿶ꎬ맊놾컄톡퓱믹폚쿖뷰막샻헾닟뗄뷇뛈뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻엉랢룅뿶 춼 1994-2009쓪컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻엉랢쟩뿶뇭 쓪뛈 짏쫐릫쮾ퟜ쫽 엉쿖릫쮾쫽 엉쿖뇈샽 %1995 416 196 % %1997 745 226 % 26
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 1998 % 1999949 297 %2000 % 20011160 686 %2002 % 20031231 586 %2004 % 20051379 750 %2006 % 20071551 835 %2008 % 20091676 995 % 뇭훐쫽뻝1994-2006쓪살ퟔ폚뢶짙욽ꎨ2008ꎩꎬ2007-2009쓪평ퟷ헟헻샭뛸뗃ꆣ평짏뇭훐뗄컒맺짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쟩뿶ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶컒맺짏쫐릫쮾막샻헾닟쿖ힴꎺ 뗚튻ꎬ쿖뷰막샻횧뢶뇈샽웰돵늻룟ꎬ2000쓪뫳믹놾캬돖퓚50%-55%뗄쮮욽ꆣ퓚컒맺놾쫐뎡붨솢횮돵ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾캪쇋쿔쪾릫쮾잿듳뗄쪵솦듓뛸쪵쪩쿖뷰막샻헾닟살뛔막뚫뷸탐엉쿖ꎬ떫평폚엉쿖뫳뫜죝틗쪹웳튵쿖뷰쇷쿝죫삧뺳ꎬ뛸쟒떱쪱컒맺놾쫐뎡룷랽쏦훆뛈늻릻붡좫ꎬ웳튵튪쿫듓놾쫐뎡짏돯듫뷰살쏖늹쿖뷰쇷맢듓쫖탸짏살쮵뻍뫜랱퓓ꎬ뛸햮컱탔죚폖믡뛱뮯웳튵닆컱ힴ뿶ꎬ틲뛸1996-1999쓪웚볤ꎬ컒맺짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뇈샽쏷쿔쿂붵ꎬ믹놾캬돖퓚30%뗄쮮욽ꆣ퓚2000쓪뗗ꎬ쯦ퟅ횤볠믡뛔웳튵퓙죚쳵볾뗄쿞훆ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뗄죈쟩폖튻쿂놻뗣좼쇋ꎬ2000쓪뗄엉쿖뇈샽톸쯙짏짽떽%ꎬ쟒웤뫳튻횱뚼컈뚨퓚50-55%뗄쮮욽ꆣ 뗚뛾ꎬ쿖뷰막샻횧뢶싊맽뗍ꎬ훐킡막뚫늢늻쓜듓훐뗃떽뛠짙쪵믝ꆣퟔ2000쓪틔살ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뇈샽훰붥쳡룟ꎬ떫쫇컒쏇튲듓훐쓜뾴떽듳늿럖릫쮾횻쫇쿳헷탔뗄엉랢뫬샻ꎬ틔ퟷ헟헻샭뗄2007쓪쫽뻝캪샽ꎬ좫쓪1551볒A막릫쮾훐릲폐835볒릫쮾엉쿖ꎬ엉쿖뇈샽룟듯%ꎬ떫틔쿖뷰막샻횧뢶싊뷸탐즸톡ꎬ27
뗚죽헂 샭싛믹뒡벰쿖ힴ럖컶 랢쿖엉쿖킡폚믲뗈폚풪뗄짏쫐릫쮾쫽룟듯449볒ꎬ햼떽ퟜ뗄엉쿖릫쮾쫽뗄%ꎬ퓙붫즸톡쳵볾럅뿭훁풪ꎬ랢쿖ퟜ쫽듯660볒횮뛠ꎬ벸뫵햼떽엉쿖릫쮾쫽뗄80%ꆣ쫔쿫튻쿂ꎬ뻍쫇틔쎿막엉쿖풪캪ힼꎬ퓚뿛돽쮰샻뫳폖쓜폐뛠짙뫬샻맩훐킡춶헟쯹폐쓘ꎬ헢훖뗍엉쿖뛔훐킡춶헟뛸퇔벸뫵뫁컞틢틥ꎬ뛸헢튲늻뗃늻죃죋뮳틉헢킩짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뗄헦쪵쒿뗄ꆣ 쯤좻컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻엉랢평폚헢퇹믲쓇퇹뗄풭틲쪼훕늻쓜쇮죋싺틢ꎬ떫컒쏇늻뿉럱죏뗄쫇풽살풽뛠뗄짏쫐릫쮾닎폫떽엉쿖뗄뛓컩훐살ꎬ늢붫웤ퟷ캪릫쮾뎣맦헾닟살쪹폃ꆣ죧맻컒쏇붫웤ퟷ캪튻훖쿖쿳ꎬ쓇쎴폐쓄킩폕틲떼훂쇋엉쿖뗄퓶볓쓘ꎿ뛸죧맻컒쏇붫웤뾴ퟷ튻룶웵믺ꎬ쓇쎴짏쫐릫쮾뗄믽벫엉쿖헾닟폖믡떼훂쪲쎴퇹뗄쫐뎡랴펦쓘ꎿ 28
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 뗚튻뷚 샭싛럖컶 쒿잰컒맺막좨럖훃룄룯믹놾췪돉ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽짏쫐릫쮾뚼쪵쿖쇋막럝뗄좫쇷춨ꎬ틢캶ퟅ컒맺뗄횤좯쫐뎡쿲돉쫬뗄놾쫐뎡폖싵뷸쇋볡쪵뗄튻늽ꆣ떫쫇탨튪힢틢뗄쫇막룄늢쎻폐뷡쫸듳막뚫뗄뿘막뗘캻ꎬ쯻쏇틀좻뿘훆ퟅ짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪ꆢ춶ꆢ죚뗈룷쿮뻶닟뮰폯좨ꎬ훐킡막뚫튲틀좻뒦폚죵쫆뗘캻ꎬ웤샻틦튲쪱뿌쫜떽듳막뚫뗄췾킲ꆣ뿉틔쮵ꎬ퓚캴살뗄쪮벸쓪쓚ꎬ듳막뚫폫훐킡막뚫뗄샻틦횮헹붫돉캪릫쮾훎샭훐뗄뫋탄컊쳢ꎬ뛔헢랽쏦컊쳢뷸탐퇐뺿컞틉뻟폐쪮럖훘튪뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ붫뷩폚웕춨훐킡막뚫폫듳막뚫횮볤뗄ꆰ훐탍막뚫ꆱꆪꆪ믺릹춶헟틽죫뷸릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ헢튲캪탍웚뗄릫쮾훎샭컊쳢쳡릩쇋튻쳵뿉탐횮뗀ꆣ 뷼쓪살ꎬ쯦ퟅퟔ짭맦쒣뗄늻뛏삩듳ꎬ믺릹춶헟훰붥평ퟮ돵뗄틔좡뛌웚닮볛캪쒿뗄쿲닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎬ듓뛸틔믱좡뎤웚컈뚨뗄닺쫕틦캪쒿뗄ꎬ튲벴춨뎣쯹쮵뗄듓ꆰ폃뷅춶욱ꆱ쿲ꆰ폃쫖춶욱ꆱꆣ헢퇹뗄뫳맻튲퓬돉쇋퓚컒맺뺭볃맬뗄쳘쫢쪱웚ꎬ틔믺릹춶헟캪듺뇭뗄훐킡춶헟캪헹좡ퟔ짭샻틦뛸폫듳막뚫횮볤뷸탐뗄벤쇒늩?ꆣ듓ퟮ돵뗄헐짌틸탐ꆰ뿉햮럧늨ꆱꆢ훐탋춨톶퓶랢H막뗈떽ퟮ뷼뗄쮫믣ꆰ늹욱틩낸ꆱ퓢뛠볒믹뷰벯쳥럱뻶ꎬ컞튻늻쿔쿖돶믺릹춶헟솦솿뗄잿듳ꎬ쯤좻ퟮ훕뷡맻룷틬ꎬ떫믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄뻶탄좴쿔슶컞틉ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔ꎬ믺릹춶헟뗄맦쒣뇈튻냣뗄훐킡춶헟뚼튪듳ꎬ웤쯹쓜믱좡뗄탅쾢튲뇈웕춨춶헟룼뛠ꎬ쟒평뻟폐럡뢻튵횪쪶뗄죋풱뷸탐닙뿘ꎬ틲듋ꎬ믺릹춶헟쿠뇈웰튻냣뗄훐킡춶헟룼폐폅쫆ꎬ룼폐쓜솦닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ뛔릫쮾뗄룷쿮뺭펪뻶닟튲룼폐뮰폯좨ꆣ튲헽쫇평폚뻟놸쇋볡뚨뗄뻶탄뫍탛뫱뗄쪵솦ꎬ쪹뗃믺릹춶헟퓚컒맺탍웚뗄놾쫐뎡훐냧퇝쇋뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄뷇즫ꎬ뛔릫쮾훎샭훐듦퓚뗄훮뛠컊쳢튲웰떽쇋뇘튪뗄볠뚽ퟷ폃ꆣ 폫듋춬쪱ꎬ훮뛠톧헟쏇뗄퇐뺿뷡싛튲뇭쏷믺릹춶헟헽믽벫뗄싄탐웤막뚫29
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 횰퓰ꎬ닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐좥ꆣ샮캬낲뫍샮뇵ꎨ2008ꎩ닉폃쏦냥쫽뻝뫍뷘쏦쫽뻝뗄볆솿랽램퇐뺿쇋믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭컊쳢ꎬ웤퇐뺿뇭쏷믺릹춶헟퓚쳡짽릫쮾훎샭쮮욽랽쏦랢믓쇋훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ붵뗍쇋듺샭돉놾ꆣ퇮쒫훱ꎨ2008ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷컒맺놾쫐뎡짏뗄믺릹춶헟웤춶탐캪쟷폚샭탔뮯뫍뎤웚뮯ꆣ컢쿾뫍붪퇥뢣ꎨ2006ꎩ뗄퇐뺿튲뇭쏷믺릹춶헟믽벫닎폫떽쇋릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ쟒믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽폫벨킧벰웳튵볛횵듦퓚헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 룹뻝ꆰ막샻듺샭샭싛ꆱ뿉횪ꎬ릫쮾랢럅쿖뷰막샻뿉틔복짙ꆰퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿ꆱꎬ붵뗍맜샭닣뗄뗀뗂럧쿕ꎬ뇜쏢맜샭닣붫듳솿뗄ꆰퟔ평쿖뷰쇷ꆱ샋럑퓚룶죋쿻럑뫍뗍킧싊뗄쿮쒿짏ꎬ폐샻폚릫쮾볛횵뗄쳡룟ꎻ쇭췢ꎬ뷏짙뗄쓚늿쿖뷰쇷튲웈쪹릫쮾쿲췢늿죚ꎬ쪹뗃췢늿춶헟룼죝틗뛔쓚늿막뚫닺짺펰쿬ꎬ듓뛸복킡듺샭럧쿕ꆣ뫺탱퇴뫍컢쟯ꎨ2004ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻튲쿔쪾ꎬ평폚믹뷰붫엉쿖ퟷ캪톡막뗄닎헕뇪ힼꎬ틲듋폐믹뷰돖막뗄릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽튪뇈쎻폐믹뷰돖막뗄릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽룟ꆣ뻟놸릫쮾막뚫벰췢늿훎샭믺훆횮튻쮫훘짭럝뗄믺릹춶헟뇘좻쫇튪얬솦퓶볓쿖뷰막샻랢럅ꎬ듓뛸복짙릫쮾듺샭돉놾횧돶ꎬ듙쪹막뚫샻틦ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ뻝듋쳡돶볙짨1ꎺ 볙짨1ꎺ믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽뻹폐펰쿬ꎬ쟒뚼돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 떱믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뷏뗍쪱ꎬ쯼뿉쓜늻믡폐뛠듳뚯솦좥볠뚽맜샭닣뫍듳막뚫뗄뺭펪뻶닟ꎬ틲캪듋쪱뗄볠뚽돉놾뿉쓜튪뎬맽쯼듓닎폫릫쮾훎샭훐쯹믱좡뗄쫕틦ꎻ뛸떱돖막뇈샽뷏룟쪱ꎬ웤뮰폯좨튲풽잿ꎬ춨맽헽뎣뛸컈뚨뗄쟾뗀쯹믱뗃쫕틦뿉쓜튪룟폚웤볠뚽돉놾ꆣ탭짜쮫뫍쳯삥죥ꎨ2009ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷믺릹춶헟믡틔튻뚨뗄룅싊닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽풽룟ꎬ닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄룅싊튲풽듳ꆣ평ꆰ막샻듺샭샭싛ꆱ뿉횪ꎬ튻떩믺릹춶헟닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꎬ캪붵뗍듺샭돉놾뇘좻쿫랽짨램퓶볓엉쿖ꆣ평듋쳡돶볙짨2ꎺ 볙짨2ꎺ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽뻹폐펰쿬ꎬ쟒뚼돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 30
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 뷼쓪살ꎬ횤좯쫐뎡짏뗄튻킩쿖쿳좴폖쯆뫵퓚췆랭ꆰ믺릹춶헟믽벫닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꆱ헢튻뚨싉ꎬ죧뷼웚뗄뿆쏡쒾튵럨뿱헇춣ꆢST췾듯쪮쯄솬퇴뗈ꎬ헢킩쇮죋웦맖뗄쿖쿳놳뫳뚼폐튻룶릲춬뗄짭펰ꎬ쓇뻍쫇컒쏇쯹쫬횪뗄믺릹춶헟ꆣ뿉틔쮵ꎬ뷼웚횤좯쫐뎡뗄뚯떴폫늿럖믺릹춶헟뗄춶탐캪폐ퟅ잧쮿췲싆뗄솪쾵ꆣퟜ쳥짏뾴ꎬ믺릹춶헟뗄죕틦ힳ듳뗄좷랢믓쇋웤뛔짏쫐릫쮾뗄볠뚽ퟷ폃ꎬ늢닎폫떽쇋짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺭펪뻶닟훐ꎬ떫떱훐튻킩믺릹춶헟뗄춶믺탐캪튲죅싒쇋횤좯쫐뎡뗄헽뎣훈탲ꎬ뛔횤좯쫐뎡뗄헽뎣랢햹닺짺쇋늻솼펰쿬ꆣ헅룟쟦뫍솮열ꎨ2009ꎩ틔뮪쇢맜쿟뿉햮낸샽뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ웤퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷퓚뿉햮랢탐뫳ꎬ믺릹춶헟춨맽닙ퟝ막볛쪵쿖쳗샻쟖햼ꎬ쟒퓚막룄춶욱맽돌훐샻폃쫖훐뗄뿉18햮막틽폕듳막뚫뫏쒱ꆣ튦틃뫍쇵횾풶ꎨ2009ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻튲뇭쏷늢늻쫇쯹폐뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뚼믡뛔릫쮾훎샭웰ퟅ믽벫ퟷ폃ꎬ쯻쏇죏캪틔믹뷰캪쫗뗄믺릹춶헟쿠뇈좯짌룼폐샻폚짏쫐릫쮾훎샭뷡릹뗄췪짆ꆣ놾컄틔돖막훜웚ퟷ캪뫢솿믺릹춶헟뺿뺹쫇뷸탐춶믮뚯틖믲쫇춶믺믮뚯뗄횸뇪ꎬ돖막훜웚뎤뇭쏷믺릹춶헟룼뛠뗄쫇뎤웚돖막ꎬ뷸탐뗄쫇헽뎣뗄춶믮뚯ꎬ믽벫뗘닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐ꎬ랴횮믺릹춶헟룼뛠뗄쫇춶믺믮뚯ꎬ뛸뷏짙닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐ꆣ뷡뫏ꆰ막샻듺샭샭싛ꆱ쳡돶볙짨3ꎺ 볙짨3ꎺ믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽뻹폐펰쿬ꎬ쟒뚼돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 믺릹춶헟돖막쓜펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾막샻헾닟ꎬ쓇쎴짏쫐릫쮾막샻헾닟폖쓜럱뛔믺릹춶헟돖막쟩뿶닺짺펰쿬쓘ꎿ믘듰쫇뿏뚨뗄ꎬ헢훷튪믹폚틔쿂죽훖샭싛ꎺ 19쫗쿈ꎬ룹뻝Lintnerꎨ1956ꎩퟮ돵쳡돶뗄ꆰ막샻탅뫅샭싛ꆱ뿉횪ꎬ평폚릫쮾맜샭닣뫍췢늿춶헟횮볤듦퓚ퟅ탅쾢늻뛔돆ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲뻍퓚폚붫엉쿖ퟷ캪튻훖탅뫅쿲췢쫍럅ꎬ춨맽랢럅막샻쿲췢뷧탻쪾놾릫쮾뗄뷏잿펯샻쓜솦뫍솼뫃뗄캴살랢햹잰뺰ꎬ듓뛸쳡룟릫쮾퓚캴살죴룉웚볤뗄쫕틦ꆣ돂쿾ꆢ 18 헅룟쟦ꎬ솮열.뿉햮죚폫믺릹춶헟쟖햼탐캪ꆪꆪ믹폚뮪쇢맜쿟뿉햮낸샽퇐뺿[J].맜샭쫀뷧,2009(S1)ꎺ110-120. 19 Lintner,John,Distribution of Incomes of Corporations Among Dividends,Retainde Earnings,and Taxes[J], American Economics Review,1956(46):97-113. 31
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 돂킡퓃뫍쓟랲ꎨ1998ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ쿖뷰ꆢ막욱뫍믬뫏죽샠막샻헾닟뻹쓜닺짺뎬뛮쫕틦ꎬ뻟폐탅뫅뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ뿗킡컄뫍폚킦삤ꎨ2003ꎩ뗄퇐뺿튲뇭쏷퓚컒맺횤좯쫐뎡듦퓚막샻탅뫅뒫뗝킧펦ꎬ럖엤막샻뗄릫쮾캴살펯샻쟩뿶튪뫃폚늻럖엤막샻뗄릫쮾ꆣ믹폚듋ꎬ믺릹춶헟듓샭탔뗄뷇뛈뾼싇ꎬ퓚ퟶ돶춶뻶닟쪱샭펦붫엉쿖ퟷ캪톡막뗄훘튪뇪ힼꆣ 20웤듎ꎬ룹뻝ꎨ1959ꎩ쳡돶뗄ꆰ쫖훐쓱샭싛ꆱꎨbird in hand)뿉횪ꎬ춶헟쫇퇡뛱럧쿕뗄ꎬ쯻쏇쓾풸틔룟볛릺싲쓇킩쓜릻퓚뷼웚횧뢶뷏뛠막샻뗄막욱ꎬ뛸늻쿠탅쓇킩돐억퓚캴살횧뢶룼룟막샻뗄막욱ꆣ믺릹춶헟ퟷ캪닆닺쫜췐믺릹ꎬ듓뷷짷탔뗄뷇뛈뾼싇ꎬ믺릹춶헟퓚ퟶ돶춶뻶닟쪱튲믡붫엉쿖ퟷ캪톡막뗄훘튪뇪ힼꆣ ퟮ뫳ꎬ룹뻝Farrar&Selwynꎨ1967ꎩ쳡돶뗄ꆰ쮰닮샭싛ꆱ벰죕뫳랢햹뛸돉뗄21ꆰힷ쯦헟킧펦샭싛ꆱ뿉횪ꎬ쮰뢳늻춬쪱ꎬ막샻헾닟믡컼틽늻춬쮰뢳닣듎뗄춶헟돖막ꆣ퓚컒맺ꎬ쿠뛔폚룶죋춶헟뛸퇔ꎬ믺릹춶헟쯹쏦쇙뗄막샻쯹뗃쮰뷏뗍ꆣ헢튲쪹뗃믺릹춶헟쿠뇈룶죋춶헟룼쟣쿲폚쿖뷰막샻ꎬ퓚ퟶ돶춶뻶닟쪱붫엉쿖ퟷ캪톡막뗄훘튪뇪ힼꆣ 컌뫩늨뫍컢쫀얩ꎨ2007ꎩꆢ뫺탱퇴뫍컢쟯ꎨ2004ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뚼뇭쏷믺릹춶헟붫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ퟷ캪웤릹붨춶ퟩ뫏뗄훘튪뇪ힼꆣ쇭췢ꎬ퓚춬뗈뚼엉쿖뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ죴엉쿖쮮욽풽룟ꎬ웤탅뫅뒫뗝킧펦샭펦풽잿ꎬ튲풽쓜릻컼틽믺릹춶헟돖막ꆢ퓶볓돖막뇈샽틖믲쫇퇓뎤돖막훜웚ꎬ뻝듋쳡돶볙짨4ꆢ5ꆢ6ꎺ 볙짨4ꎺ짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖벰엉쿖쮮욽뻹뛔믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막폐펰쿬ꎬ쟒뻹돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 볙짨5ꎺ짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖벰엉쿖쮮욽뻹뛔믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽폐펰쿬ꎬ쟒뻹돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 볙짨6ꎺ짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖벰엉쿖쮮욽뻹뛔믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚폐펰쿬ꎬ쟒 20 Gorden,M.,Dividends,Earnings and Stock Price[J],Review of Economics and Statistics,1959(41):99-105. 21 .,.,Taxes,Corporate Financial Policy and Return to Investors[J],National Tax Journal,1967(6): 147-171. 32
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 뻹돊헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 뗚뛾뷚 퇐뺿짨볆 튻ꆢ뇤솿뚨틥 ꎨ튻ꎩ믺릹춶헟돖막벰짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟횸뇪뚨틥 1.믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽톡퓱 쒿잰ꎬ돖막뇈샽ퟷ캪퇐뺿믺릹춶헟뗄튻룶훘튪쫓뷇ꎬ톧헟쏇튲뛔웤뷸탐쇋쾸훂뗄첽쳖ꎬ떫튲쎻폐탎돉춳튻뗄뇪ힼꆣ샮룕뫍헅몣퇠ꎨ2009ꎩ닉좡뗄쫇짏쫐릫쮾쓪쒩쯹폐믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽횮뫍살뫢솿ꆣ샮캬낲뫍샮뇵ꎨ2009ꎩ닉좡뗄퓲쫇쪹폃짏쫐릫쮾쎿쓪쯄룶벾뛈믺릹춶헟햼쇷춨막뇈샽ퟜ뫍뗄욽뻹쫽살뫢솿믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꆣ컌뫩늨뫍컢쫀얩ꎨ2007ꎩ튲쫇쪹폃쓪쒩믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽횮뫍살뷸탐뫢솿ꆣ키탇뫍췵ꎨ2005ꎩ퓲쫇쪹폃쓪쒩잰쪮듳막뚫훐믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽횮뫍살뫢솿믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꆣ 놾컄퓚뷨본틔짏톧헟쏇뗄뷡싛믹뒡짏ꎬ닉폃짏쫐릫쮾쓪쒩훷튪믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽횮뫍IIR살뫢솿ꎬ헢샯훷튪믺릹춶헟훷튪냼삨횤좯춶믹뷰ꆢ좯짌ꆢQFIIꆢ놣쿕릫쮾ꆢ짧놣믹뷰ꆢ웳튵쓪뷰ꆢ탅췐릫쮾ꆢ닆컱릫쮾뗈ꆣ헢퇹톡퓱뗄풭틲폐솽뗣ꎬ웤튻퓚폚믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쪱뿌뒦폚뚯첬뇤뮯훐ꎬ쪹폃죎뫎뫢솿랽램뚼쫇춽샍ꎬ횻쓜쪹폃뷏쒣뫽횸뇪살쳦듺ꎬ늢쟒쓪쒩돖막뗄믺릹춶헟뛔폚짏쫐릫쮾뗄럖뫬뻶닟쿠뇈웤쯻웚볤뛸퇔룼뻟펰쿬솦ꎻ웤뛾퓚폚헢킩훷튪믺릹춶헟믹놾몭룇쇋믺릹춶헟헻쳥ꎬ뛔헢킩믺릹춶헟뷸탐퇐뺿틑뺭ퟣ릻ꆣ 2.믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚톡퓱 쒿잰뛔믺릹춶헟뷸탐뗄쿠맘퇐뺿듳뛠횻쫇뾼싇떽쇋믺릹춶헟뗄돖막뇈샽ꎬ뛸짵짙뾼싇떽믺릹춶헟뗄돖막훜웚뿉쓜튲믡펰쿬떽ퟮ훕뗄퇐뺿뷡싛ꎬ캪듋ꎬ놾컄틽뷸돖막훜웚ퟷ캪퇐뺿믺릹춶헟뗄폖튻훘튪쫓뷇ꆣ퓚헢샯ꎬ컒쏇쪹폃믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊살뫢솿믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚ꆣ믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊33
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 풽듳ꎬ듺뇭믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚늻뎤ꎬ뛾헟돊쿖랴쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺTURNOVER=TOTALTURNOVER*IIR 믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚=1/TURNOVER 웤훐ꎬTURNOVER듺뇭믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊ꎬTOTALTURNOVER듺뇭쓪뻹ퟜ쳥뮻쫖싊ꎬIIR듺뇭믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꆣ 3.웤쯻횸뇪톡퓱 놾컄톡퓱chigu살뇭쪾믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막ꎬ죴믺릹춶헟돖막ꎬchigu=1,럱퓲캪0ꆣ톡퓱paixian살뇭쪾짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖ꎬ죴엉쿖ꎬpaixian=1ꎬ럱퓲캪0ꆣ톡퓱DPS살뇭쪾짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꆣ 4.뿘훆뇤솿톡퓱 ꎨ1ꎩ돉뎤쓜솦 22룹뻝Myers&Majilufꎨ1984ꎩ쳡돶뗄죚폅탲샭싛뿉횪ꎬ쓚늿죚쫇ퟮ폅뗄죚랽쪽ꆣ뛔폚뒦폚돉뎤웚뗄릫쮾뛸퇔ꎬ돉뎤뇈뷏뿬ꎬ탨튪듳솿뷰ퟷ횧독ꎬ듋쪱룼쟣쿲폚놣쫘탍막샻헾닟ꎬ쾣췻짙엉쿖믲헟룹놾뻍늻엉쿖ꎬ헢퇹퓚폐뷏뫃랢햹믺믡쪱ꎬ릫쮾뇣폐쇋돤ퟣ뗄쓚늿죚살풴ꆣ뛔폚돉뎤탔뷏뫃뗄릫쮾ꎬ룼폐뿉쓜놣쇴룼뛠뗄쇴듦쫕틦살놣횤웳튵캴살뗄랢햹ꆣ뛔폚믺릹춶헟뛸퇔ꎬ춨맽돖막돉뎤탔뷏뫃뗄릫쮾컞틉쓜릻퓚캴살웚볤캪웤듸살럡뫱뗄펯샻ꆣ틲듋ꎬ돉뎤탔볈펰쿬쿖뷰막샻엉랢폖펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막ꆣ 뫢솿돉뎤탔뗄횸뇪뷏뛠ꎬ훷튪폐췐뇶Q횵ꆢ훷펪튵컱쫕죫퓶뎤싊ꆢ뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊뗈ꆣ췐뇶Q횵뗈폚쫐뎡볛횵폫훘훃돉놾횮뇈ꆣ닉폃췐뇶Q횵듦퓚솽룶컊쳢ꎬ웤튻쫇평폚컒맺듦퓚쇷춨막폫럇쇷춨막쿠럖룮헢튻쳘쫢뗄막좨뷡릹ꎬ퓬돉쫐뎡볛횵뷏쓑뫢솿ꎬ웤뛾쫇훘훃돉놾뫜쓑맀볆ꎬ헢튻탅쾢훷튪쫇맩릫쮾놾짭쯹폐뗄ꆣ늻닉폃뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊뗄풭틲퓚폚볆쯣뺻샻죳쪱탨튪볓짏웤쯻튵컱쫕횧뺻뛮ꆢ펪튵췢쫕횧뺻뛮뗈ꎬ뛸헢튻늿럖뛔폚릫쮾놾짭뗄돉뎤탔뛸퇔늢컞첫듳맘 22 Myers .,Corporate Financing and Investment Decision When Firms Have Information That Investors do not Have[J], Journal of Financial Economics,1984(13):187-221. 34
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 솪ꎬ뿉쓜믡퓬돉ퟮ훕뷡싛짔쿔욫웄ꆣ믹폚듋ꎬ놾컄닉폃훷펪튵컱쫕죫퓶뎤싊GROWTH살뇭쪾ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ펯샻쓜솦 평ꆰ막샻탅뫅샭싛ꆱ뿉횪ꎬ릫쮾막샻헾닟뗄쎿튻랽쏦뚼뒫듯쇋뻟폐훘튪틢틥뗄탂탅쾢ꆣ떱쒳릫쮾뾪쪼횧뢶쿖뷰막샻쪱ꎬ헢뇭쏷맜샭닣뛔릫쮾캴살뗄펯샻쓜솦뫜폐탅탄ꆣ펯샻쓜솦풽잿ꎬ뺻샻죳풽뛠ꎬ헢퇹퓚쏖늹틔잰쓪뛈뿷쯰ꆢ뿛돽룷샠릫믽뷰ꆢ엉랢폅쿈막막샻뫳쓜릻룸웕춨막막뚫엉쿖뗄뷰튲믡룼뛠ꎬ엉쿖룅싊쿠뛔풽듳ꎬ엉쿖쮮욽튲믡쿠뛔풽룟ꆣ싀뎤붭뫍췵뿋쏴ꎨ2002ꎩꆢ풭뫬웬ꎨ2004)뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뚼뇭쏷릫쮾펯샻쓜솦뫍쿖뷰막샻횧뢶쮮욽돊쿖돶헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔폚펯샻뷏잿뗄릫쮾ꎬ룼폐뿉쓜춨맽엉랢쿖뷰막샻살쿲췢뷧탻쪾릫쮾떱웚벰캴살뗄릫쮾잿펯샻쓜솦ꆣ믺릹춶헟ퟷ캪뷰죚훐뷩믺릹ꎬ튲쏦쇙ퟅ뚨웚럖뫬뗄톹솦ꎬ헢뻍튪쟳믺릹춶헟퓚맘힢웳튵캴살돉뎤탔쪱튲튪맘힢웤떱웚펯샻쓜솦ꆣ놾컄닉폃EPSퟷ캪뫢솿펯샻쓜솦뗄횸뇪ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ쿖뷰쇷쓜솦 뺭펪믮뚯쿖뷰쇷솿쫇릫쮾틲듓쫂짌욷쿺쫛ꆢ쳡릩샍컱뗈뺭펪믮뚯뛸닺짺뗄쿖뷰쇷솿쫽뛮ꆣ뺭펪믮뚯쿖뷰쇷솿ힴ뿶펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻헾닟뗄풭틲퓚폚죧맻짏쫐릫쮾뺭펪믮뚯쿖뷰쇷솿ힴ뿶늻병ꎬ뛸볌탸엉랢쿖뷰막샻헾닟뗄뮰ꎬ죝틗퓬돉웳튵쿖뷰쇷뷴헅ꎬ쪹웳튵퓚쏦쇙뎥뮹듻뿮쪱톹솦맽듳퓬돉웳튵뷰뫄뷟뗄럧쿕믲헟쫇퓚폐뫃뗄춶믺믡쪱틲캪쿖뷰쇷뗄좱랦뛸냗냗즥쪧ꎬ듓뛸퓬돉웳튵헻쳥뗄놻뚯ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ믺릹춶헟퓚톡막쪱ꎬ캪캬뮤ퟔ짭샻틦튲룼쟣쿲폚톡퓱쓇킩쿖뷰쇷ힴ뿶솼뫃뗄릫쮾ꆣBhattacharya(1979)뻍잿뗷쇋뺭펪훐쯹뗃뗄쿖뷰쇷솿뿉틔ퟷ캪막샻엉랢뗄탅뫅ꆣ놾컄닉폃쎿막뺭펪믮뚯쿖뷰쇷솿CASHFLOWPSퟷ캪뫢솿쿖뷰쇷쓜솦뗄횸뇪ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ뎥햮쓜솦 웳튵ퟔ짭놾컞췢뫵좨틦놾뫍햮컱놾솽훖ꎬ뛸퓚뺻샻죳럖엤쮳탲짏햮컱놾쫇업퓚좨틦놾잰쏦ꎬ헢뻍퓬돉쇋죴햮컱놾맽듳ꎬ뿉릩좨틦놾럖엤35
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 뗄뺻샻죳뻍쿠뛔뷏짙ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ평폚햮컱놾뎥뮹뻟폐잿훆탔뫍뚨웚탔ꎬ죴웳튵퓚늻뾼싇뎥햮쓜솦쪱쎤쒿엉쿖ꎬ뫜죝틗퓬돉뷰솴뛏쇷ꎬ듓뛸쪹뗃웳튵쿝죫늻솼ힴ뿶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뢺햮ힴ뿶뿉틔놻뾴ퟷ쫇랢럅막샻뗄튻룶풼쫸쳵볾ꎬ햮좨죋캪캬뮤ퟔ짭샻틦뿉튪쟳웳튵퓚싄탐뎥햮틥컱잰뷻횹랢럅쿖뷰막샻ꆣ평폚믺릹춶헟춶죫뗄쫇좨틦놾ꎬ틲뛸웳튵뗄햮컱놾ힴ뿶튲믡펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟톡막ꆣ놾컄뷨본컌뫩늨뫍컢쫀얩ꎨ2007ꎩꆢ샮룕뫍헅몣퇠ꎨ2009ꎩ뗈뗄맛뗣닉폃닺뢺햮싊LEVퟷ캪뎥햮쓜솦뗄뫢솿횸뇪ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ릫쮾맦쒣 튻냣죏캪듳릫쮾쿖뷰쇷뇈뷏컈뚨ꎬ삩헅폻췻늻쫇뫜잿ꎬ캪캬뮤릫쮾돉쫬컈뚨뗄탎쿳ꎬ췹췹쟣쿲폚엉랢쿖뷰막샻ꆣ쿠뇈횮쿂ꎬ킡릫쮾튻냣뻟폐뇈뷏솼뫃뗄돉뎤쓜솦ꎬ삩헅폻췻쿠뇈듳릫쮾튲룼잿쇒ꎬ룼쟣쿲폚짙엉쿖믲룹놾늻엉쿖ꆣ믺릹춶헟퓚ퟶ돶춶뻶닟쪱ꎬퟜ쫇쟣쿲폚틔ퟮ킡뗄럧쿕살믱좡쿠춬뗄쫕틦믲쫇틔쿠춬뗄럧쿕살믱좡ퟮ듳뗄쫕틦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ릫쮾맦쒣튲쫇웤톡막뗄훘튪뾼싇틲쯘ꆣ놾컄닉폃쓪뻹닺ퟜ뛮뛔쫽SIZEퟷ캪릫쮾맦쒣뗄뫢솿횸뇪ꆣ ꎨ6ꎩ막좨벯훐뛈 키ꎨ2005ꎩ죏캪ꎬ퓚듳막뚫돖막뇈샽뷏룟뗄릫쮾ꎬ듳솿엉쿖쪵볊짏쫇붫짏쫐릫쮾뗄쿖뷰막샻틆룸듳막뚫뗄쫖뛎ꎬ쯰몦쇋릫쮾볛횵ꆣLee뫍Xiaoꎨ2002ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷컒맺짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻횧뢶훷튪쫜듳막뚫샻틦쟖햼뚯믺뗄쟽쪹ꎺ룟막좨벯훐뛈뗄릫쮾믡뷏뛠뗘샻폃엉쿖살쿲듳막뚫쫤쯍샻폃ꆣ막좨벯훐뛈뷏룟뗄릫쮾춨맽엉쿖ꎬ튻랽쏦뿉틔췪돉듓막쫐훐좦잮뗄쒿뗄ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦튲뿉틔틔럖뫬뗄헽뎣쟾뗀붫쿖뷰럖엉룸듳막뚫ꎬ뷸뛸뻰좡훐킡막뚫샻틦ꆣ뛔폚믺릹춶헟뛸퇔ꎬ막좨벯훐뛈뷏룟믡쿷죵웤닎폫릫쮾훎샭뫳퓚웳튵뗄뮰폯좨ꎬ떼훂웤좱랦뛔웳튵뺭펪뗄뻶닟좨ꎬ웤돖막믽벫탔튲늻믡첫룟ꆣ틲듋ꎬ막좨벯훐뛈믡펰쿬떽릫쮾엉쿖뫍믺릹춶헟돖막ꆣ놾컄닉폃쓪쒩뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽RATIOퟷ캪뫢솿횸뇪ꆣ ꎨ7ꎩ뿘막막뚫탔훊 36
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 컒맺듳뛠쫽막럝훆릫쮾쫇맺폐막햼뿘막뗘캻ꎬ퓚2005쓪막좨럖훃룄룯횮잰ꎬ뿉쇷춨뗄막럝횻햼30%ퟳ폒ꆣ맺볒캪쇋웳튵뗄뎤웚컈뚨랢햹ꎬ튻냣룼힢훘웳튵뗄믽샛ꎬ뛸늻쟣쿲폚닉폃떼훂웳튵쿖뷰쇷돶뗄쿈뷸막샻럖엤랽쪽ꎻ힢훘웳튵뗄뺭펪돉맻ꎬ벴샻죳횸뇪ꎬ뛸뛔막볛쿠뛔맘힢뷏짙ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ퓚맺폐막뿘막뛸웕뇩듦퓚뗄맺폐춶훷쳥좱캻뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ웳튵뗄뺭펪헟믡뷏뛠뗘햾퓚ퟔ벺뗄뷇뛈뛸럇쯹폐헟뗄뷇뛈뷸탐뻶닟ꎬ맜샭헟캪쇋복짙럧쿕ꎬ튲믡쟣쿲폚샻폃쇴듦쫕틦살퓶볓춶ꆣ틲캪듓웳튵췢늿돯믡떼훂닆컱럧쿕볓듳ꎬ볓짏컒맺뗄웳튵듳뛠뮹뒦폚돉뎤웚ꎬ뷰탨쟳솿듳ꎬ뷏뗍뗄막샻횧뢶뇈싊폐샻폚웳튵뗄돉뎤ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ뛔폚믺릹춶헟뛸퇔ꎬ뿘막막뚫탔훊튲믡펰쿬떽웤춶ퟩ뫏톡퓱ꆣ놾컄닉폃쓪쒩뿘막막뚫탔훊NATUREퟷ캪뫢솿횸뇪ꆣ 뻟쳥뇤솿몬틥죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 뇤솿쏷쾸뇭 뇤솿쏻돆 듺싫 뚨틥 믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막 chigu 죴믺릹춶헟돖막ꎬ퓲chigu=1ꎬ럱퓲캪0짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊 paixian 죴짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖ꎬ퓲paixian=1ꎬ럱퓲캪0짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽 DPS 쿖뷰막샻/ퟜ막쫽 믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽 IIR 쓪쒩훷튪믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽횮뫍 믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚 1/TURNOVER 1/(쓪뻹뮻쫖싊*믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽) 돉뎤쓜솦 GROWTH훷펪튵컱쫕죫퓶뎤싊 펯샻쓜솦EPS 뺻샻죳/ퟜ막쫽 쿖뷰쇷쓜솦 CASHFLOWPS 뺭펪쿖뷰쇷솿/ퟜ막쫽 뎥햮쓜솦LEV ퟜ뢺햮/ퟜ닺 릫쮾맦쒣 SIZELn[(쓪쒩닺ퟜ뛮+쓪돵닺ퟜ뛮ꎩ/2] 막좨벯훐뛈 RATIO 쓪쒩뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽 뿘막막뚫탔훊 NATURE 맺폐막=1ꎬ럇맺폐막=0 뛾ꆢ쒣탍릹붨 37
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 캪볬퇩볙짨1-3ꎬ컒쏇틔짏쫐릫쮾떱웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔잰웚믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막chiguꆢ돖막뇈샽IIRꆢ돖막훜웚1/TURNOVERퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ늢볓죫쿠펦뗄뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ럖뇰릹붨돶쒣탍1-6ꆣ쒣탍죧쿂ꎺ 쒣탍1ꎺ Ln(Pt/1−Pt)=β0+β1chigut−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍2ꎺ DPSt=β0+β1chigut−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍3ꎺ Ln(Pt/1−Pt)=β0+β1IIRt−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍4ꎺ DPSt=β0+β1IIRt−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE +β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε쒣탍5ꎺ Ln(Pt/1−Pt)=β0+β1(1/TURNOVERt−1)+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS +β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε쒣탍6ꎺ DPSt=β0+β1(1/TURNOVERt−1)+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 캪볬퇩볙짨4-6쫇럱돉솢ꎬ컒쏇틔믺릹춶헟떱웚돖막룅싊ꆢ돖막뇈샽뫍돖막훜웚ퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔잰웚짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖ꆢ엉쿖쮮욽ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱볓죫쿠펦뗄뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ럖뇰릹붨돶쒣탍7-12ꆣ쒣탍죧쿂ꎺ 쒣탍7ꎺ Ln(Pt/1−Pt)=β0+β1paixiant−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍8ꎺ 38
뗚쯄헂 쪵횤퇐뺿짨볆 Ln(Pt/1−Pt)=β0+β1DPSt−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍9ꎺ IIRt=β0+β1paixiant−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍10ꎺ IIRt=β0+β1DPSt−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO +β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍11ꎺ 1/TURNOVERt=β0+β1paixiant−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV+β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 쒣탍12ꎺ 1/TURNOVERt=β0+β1DPSt−1+β2GROWTH+β3EPS+β4CASHFLOWPS+β5LEV +β6SIZE+β7RATIO+β8NATURE+ε 죽ꆢ쫽뻝살풴 놾컄쯹톡폃뗄쫽뻝좫늿살ퟔ뻛풴RESSET쫽뻝뿢뫍맺첩낲CSMAR쫽뻝뿢ꎬ웤훐믺릹춶헟돖막쫽뻝살ퟔRESSET쫽뻝뿢ꎬ릫쮾닆컱쫽뻝살ퟔCSMAR쫽뻝뿢ꎬ쯹쪹폃뗄쫽뻝춳볆릤뻟캪뫍Excel2009ꆣ 놾컄톡좡2007-2009쓪뮦짮솽쫐믺릹춶헟쫽뻝벰룷샠닆컱쫽뻝췪놸뗄럇뷰죚샠A막짏쫐릫쮾캪퇹놾,쳞돽늻췪헻벰듦퓚틬뎣쟩뿶뗄쫽뻝뫳ꎬퟮ뫳뗃떽뗄쓪뛈쫽뻝죧쿂ꎺ웤훐ꎬ2009쓪폐1528볒퇹놾릫쮾ꆢ2008쓪폐1347볒퇹놾릫쮾ꆢ2007쓪폐1099볒퇹놾릫쮾ꆣ 39
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 뗚튻뷚 쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 튻ꆢퟜ쳥퇹놾쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 뇭 믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽 믺릹춶헟돖믺릹춶헟돖막퇹놾쓪뛈 퇹놾ퟜ솿 ퟮ킡횵 ퟮ듳횵 훐캻쫽 욽뻹쫽막퇹놾쫽 햼ퟜ퇹놾뇈샽ꎨ%ꎩ 2007 1099 759 2008 1347 943 2009 1528 1238 뇭 믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚 믺릹춶헟돖믺릹춶헟돖막퇹놾쓪뛈 퇹놾ퟜ솿 ퟮ킡횵 ퟮ듳횵 훐캻쫽 욽뻹쫽막퇹놾쫽 햼ퟜ퇹놾뇈샽ꎨ%ꎩ 2007 1099 759 2008 1347 943 2009 1528 1238 뇭 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쟩뿶 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖퇹놾햼쓪뛈 퇹놾ퟜ솿 ퟮ킡횵 ퟮ듳횵 훐캻쫽 욽뻹쫽쫽솿 ퟜ퇹놾뇈샽ꎨ%ꎩ 2007 1099 582 2008 1347 721 2009 1528 796 40
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 평뇭뛔믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆컒쏇뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ2007-2009헢죽쓪뗄믺릹춶헟돖막쫽솿컈늽퓶볓ꎬ헢뇭쏷컒맺쿖뷗뛎췆탐뗄ꆰ뷸튻늽듳솦랢햹믺릹춶헟ꆱ뗄헾닟좡뗃쇋쿔ퟅ킧맻ꎬ믺릹춶헟헽믽벫냧퇝ퟅ놾쫐뎡컈뚨웷뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ컒쏇튲랢쿖헢죽쓪믺릹춶헟돖막욽뻹쫽ꆢ훐캻쫽뗈뻹돊쿖돶컈늽짏짽쟷쫆ꎬ헢튲뇭쏷믺릹춶헟퓚맺볒뗄듳솦럶돖쿂ꎬ웤맦쒣풽살풽듳ꎬ틑뺭돉캪놾쫐뎡짏뗄튻횧훘튪솦솿ꆣ떫컒쏇튲쟥컺뗘죏쪶떽헢죽쓪쓪뻹믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽캪%ꎬ헢폫맺췢랢듯놾쫐뎡쿠뇈뮹쫇튪뗍뗄뛠ꎬ캴살랢햹믺릹춶헟뗄뿕볤죔좻뫜듳ꆣ 평뇭뛔믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뗄쓪뛈닮틬쿠뇈돖막뇈샽뛸퇔튪뢴퓓뗄뛠ꆣퟜ쳥짏ꎬ2008쓪뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚튪킡폚쇭췢솽쓪ꎬ헢뿉쓜쫇쫜떽쏀맺듎듻캣믺뗄펰쿬ꎬ퓚2008쓪뷰죚캣믺뗄랢짺ꎬ룸쫐뎡퓬돉쇋뿖믅탄샭ꎬ춶헟럗럗엗쫛쫖훐뗄막욱ꎬ퓬돉돖막훜웚욫뗍ꆣ 평뇭뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆컒쏇뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ헢죽쓪뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쟩뿶쿠뇈웰믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쟩뿶ꎬ늢쎻폐돊쿖돶폫횮쿠튻훂뗄뗝퓶쟷쫆ꆣ뺡맜짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쫽솿훰쓪뗝퓶ꎬ떫웤햼헻룶퇹놾뇈샽좴쎻폐뇭쿖돶훰쓪퓶뎤쟷쫆ꎬ춬퇹ꎬ엉쿖욽뻹쫽ꆢ훐캻쫽벰엉쿖ퟮ듳횵뗈튲뻹캴뇭쿖돶컈늽퓶뎤쟷쫆ꎬ뛸쫇뇭쿖돶쿈퓶볓뫳복짙뗄쟷쫆ꆣퟷ헟죏캪헢폫쓪뛈볤뗄뺭볃탎쫆닮틬폐뫜듳맘솪ꎬ평폚2007쓪뗗쏀맺놬랢쇋좫쏦뗄듎듻캣믺ꎬ늢떼훂좫쟲뺭볃쿝죫쇋뎤웚뗄쮥췋ꎬ훐맺쫐뎡튲늻쓜뇜쏢ꎬ듳솿웳튵뷓늻떽맺췢뚩떥ꎬ뛸맺쓚탨쟳폖룺늻짏ꎬ횱뷓떼훂쇋웳튵펯샻뗄듳럹뛈쿂뮬ꆣ떫평폚훍뫳탔뗄듦퓚ꎬ뺭볃쿴쳵뗄쟩뿶늢늻믡솢벴룐좾떽훐맺쫐뎡ꎬ쏀맺웳튵퓚뺭볃맽죈웚볤쯹쿂뗄뚩떥쓜릻퓚3-12룶퓂쓚췪돉늢쳥쿖퓚맺쓚짏쫐릫쮾닆놨훐ꎬ틲듋ꎬ2008쓪뗄맺쓚짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖늢쎻폐쫜떽뛠듳돥믷ꎬ뇭튲쓜릻쳥쿖헢튻뗣ꆣ떫좫쟲뺭볃뗄퇏훘쿂뮬훕뺿뮹쫇믡펰쿬떽맺쓚뺭볃탎쫆ꎬ헢튲떼훂쇋2009쓪엉쿖쮮욽쿂뮬ꆣퟛ뫏헢죽쓪뗄쫽뻝컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ헢죽쓪뗄엉쿖쮮욽돊쿖돶쿈퓶볓뫳복짙뗄쟷쫆ꆣ 41
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 뛾ꆢ럖ퟩ퇹놾쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 (튻ꎩ엉쿖ퟩ폫늻엉쿖ퟩ쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 -2009쓪뛈엉쿖ퟩ폫늻엉쿖ퟩ짏쫐릫쮾뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쏨쫶탔춳볆벰뷡맻럖컶 뇭 믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꆪꆪ엉쿖ퟩ폫늻엉쿖ퟩ 엉랢쿖뷰막샻ퟩ 늻엉랢쿖뷰막샻ퟩ 뛾헟닮틬춳볆볬퇩쓪뛈 믺릹춶헟돖막돖막뇈샽뻹믺릹춶헟돖막돖막뇈샽뻹퇹놾솿퇹놾솿 T볬퇩 Z볬퇩 뇈샽훐캻쫽 횵 뇈샽훐캻쫽 횵 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2007 582 517 2008 721 626 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2009 796 732 컒쏇붫헻쳥퇹놾내헕짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖뮮럖캪엉쿖ퟩ폫늻엉쿖ퟩꎬ늢폃T볬퇩살뇈뷏뛾헟뗄뻹횵닮틬ꎬ폃Z볬퇩살뇈뷏뛾헟뗄훐캻쫽닮틬ꆣ평뇭뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ엉랢쿖뷰막샻ퟩ뫍늻엉랢쿖뷰막샻ퟩ횮볤뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽듦퓚뷏듳닮틬ꆣ컒쏇랢쿖ꎬ죽쓪뗄엉쿖ퟩ퇹놾솿뻹듳폚늻엉쿖ퟩ퇹놾솿ꆣ2007쓪벰2009쓪ꎬ엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽훐캻쫽벰뻹횵뚼풶풶뎬맽늻엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽훐캻쫽벰뻹횵ꎬ쟒뛾헟닮틬쿔훸쿠맘ꆣ뛸퓚2008쓪ꎬ쯤좻엉쿖ퟩ뗄돖막뇈샽훐캻쫽벰뻹횵튪싔듳폚늻엉쿖ퟩ뗄돖막뇈샽훐캻쫽벰뻹횵ꎬ떫뛾헟닮틬퓚춳볆짏늻쿔훸ꆣ -2009쓪뛈엉쿖ퟩ폫늻엉쿖ퟩ짏쫐릫쮾뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚쏨쫶탔춳볆벰뷡맻럖컶 42
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 뇭 믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚ꆪꆪ엉쿖ퟩ폫늻엉쿖ퟩ 엉랢쿖뷰막샻ퟩ 늻엉랢쿖뷰막샻ퟩ 뛾헟닮틬춳볆볬퇩쓪뛈 믺릹춶헟돖막돖막훜웚뻹믺릹춶헟돖막돖막훜웚뻹퇹놾솿퇹놾솿 T볬퇩 Z볬퇩 훜웚훐캻쫽 횵 훜웚훐캻쫽 횵 2007 582 517 2008 721 626 2009 796 0 732 평뇭뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ엉쿖ퟩ뫍늻엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚퓚쫽횵짏듦퓚뷏듳닮틬ꆣ웤훐ꎬ2008쓪뫍2009쓪엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뻹룟폚늻엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚ꎬ뛸2007쓪좴헽뫃쿠랴ꎬ쟒헢죽쓪뗄닮틬볬퇩퓚춳볆짏뻹늻쿔훸ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ룟엉쿖ퟩ폫뗍엉쿖ퟩ쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 -2009쓪뛈룟엉쿖ퟩ폫뗍엉쿖ퟩ짏쫐릫쮾뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쏨쫶탔춳볆벰뷡맻럖컶 뇭 믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꆪꆪ룟엉쿖ퟩ폫뗍엉쿖ퟩ 쓪뛈 룟엉쿖ퟩ 뗍엉쿖ퟩ 뛾헟닮틬춳볆볬퇩 믺릹춶헟돖막믺릹춶헟돖막 돖막뇈샽뻹횵 돖막뇈샽뻹횵 T볬퇩 Z볬퇩 뇈샽훐캻쫽 뇈샽훐캻쫽 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2007 7163 .∗∗∗∗∗∗2008 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2009 8 .379 컒쏇붫헻쳥퇹놾내헕짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽뗄훐캻쫽뷸탐뮮럖ꎬ뿉틔뮮럖캪룟엉쿖ퟩ뫍뗍엉쿖ퟩꆣ평뇭컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ2007쓪뫍2009쓪룟엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽튪풶풶듳폚뗍엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꎬ뛸2008쓪룟엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽횻쫇싔듳폚뗍엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꎬ떫헢죽쓪뗄뛾헟닮틬퓚춳볆짏뚼쫇쿔훸뗄ꆣ -2009쓪뛈룟엉쿖ퟩ폫뗍엉쿖ퟩ짏쫐릫쮾뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚쏨43
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 쫶탔춳볆벰뷡맻럖컶 뇭 믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚ꆪꆪ룟엉쿖ퟩ폫뗍엉쿖ퟩ 쓪뛈 룟엉쿖ퟩ 뗍엉쿖ퟩ 뛾헟닮틬춳볆볬퇩 믺릹춶헟돖막믺릹춶헟돖막 돖막훜웚뻹횵 돖막훜웚뻹횵 T볬퇩 Z볬퇩 훜웚훐캻쫽 훜웚훐캻쫽 2007 2008 2009 평뇭컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ2007쓪뫍2009쓪룟엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚튪풶풶듳폚뗍엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊ꎬ뛸2008쓪룟엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊튪싔킡폚뗍엉쿖ퟩ뗄믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊ꎬ떫쫇헢죽쓪뗄닮틬볬퇩퓚춳볆짏뻹늻쿔훸ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ돖막ퟩ폫늻돖막ퟩ쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 뇭 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꆪꆪ돖막ퟩ폫늻돖막ퟩ 돖막ퟩ 늻돖막ퟩ 뛾헟닮틬춳볆볬퇩쓪뛈 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉퇹놾솿퇹놾솿 T볬퇩 Z볬퇩 욽훐캻쫽 쿖쮮욽뻹횵 욽훐캻쫽 쿖쮮욽뻹횵 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2007 759 340 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2008 943 404 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2009 1238 290 컒쏇붫헻쳥퇹놾내믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막뮮럖캪돖막ퟩ폫늻돖막ퟩꆣ평뇭컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막ퟩ뗄짏쫐릫쮾쫽솿튪풶풶뎬맽늻돖막ퟩ뗄짏쫐릫쮾쫽솿ꎬ늢쟒돖막ퟩ폫늻돖막ퟩ헢죽쓪뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽듦퓚뷏듳뗄닮틬ꎬ뻹쫇돖막ퟩ뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽튪룟폚늻돖막ퟩ엉쿖쮮욽ꎬ헢뛾헟뗄닮틬퓚춳볆짏튲럇뎣쿔훸ꆣ ꎨ쯄ꎩ룟돖막ퟩ폫뗍돖막ퟩ쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 44
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 뇭 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꆪꆪ룟돖막뇈샽ퟩ폫뗍돖막뇈샽ퟩ 쓪뛈 룟돖막뇈샽ퟩ 뗍돖막뇈샽ퟩ 뛾헟닮틬춳볆볬퇩 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮 T볬퇩 Z볬퇩 욽훐캻쫽 욽뻹횵 욽훐캻쫽 욽뻹횵 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2007 7 .∗∗∗∗∗∗2008 ∗∗∗∗∗∗2009 내2007-2009쓪믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뗄돖막훐캻쫽뷸탐뮮럖ꎬ듓뛸뿉틔붫헻쳥퇹놾뮮럖돉룟돖막뇈샽ퟩ뫍뗍돖막뇈샽ퟩꆣ평뇭컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ2007쓪ꆢ2008쓪ꆢ2009쓪죽쓪헢솽ퟩ뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽돊쿖돶튻훂뗄쟷쫆ꎬ쓇뻍쫇룟돖막뇈샽ퟩ뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽튪룟폚뗍돖막뇈샽ퟩ엉쿖쮮욽ꎬ횻늻맽2007쓪뫍2009쓪뗄솽ퟩ엉쿖쮮욽닮틬튪룼룟폚2008쓪ꎬ쟒죽쓪뗄엉쿖쮮욽닮틬퓚춳볆짏뻹럇뎣쿔훸ꆣ ꎨ컥ꎩ룟돖막훜웚ퟩ폫뗍돖막훜웚ퟩ쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻벰럖컶 뇭 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꆪꆪ룟돖막훜웚ퟩ폫뗍돖막훜웚ퟩ 쓪뛈 룟돖막훜웚ퟩ 뗍돖막훜웚ퟩ 뛾헟닮틬춳볆볬퇩 짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮 T볬퇩 Z볬퇩 욽훐캻쫽 욽뻹횵 욽훐캻쫽 욽뻹횵 2007 2008 2009 내2007-2009쓪믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊뗄훐캻쫽뷸탐뮮럖ꎬ듓뛸뿉틔붫헻쳥퇹놾뮮럖돉룟뮻쫖싊ퟩ뫍뗍뮻쫖싊ퟩꆣ평뇭컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ2007쓪뫍2009쓪룟돖막훜웚ퟩ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽튪듳폚뗍돖막훜웚ퟩ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꎬ뛸2008쓪뗍돖막훜웚ퟩ뗄엉쿖쮮욽튪싔듳폚룟돖막훜웚ퟩ뗄엉쿖쮮욽ꎬ늢쟒헢죽쓪뗄엉쿖쮮욽닮틬볬퇩닮틬퓚춳볆짏뚼늻쿔훸ꆣ ퟛ뫏뇭-뇭뗄뷡맻ꎬ듓쏨쫶탔춳볆짏컒쏇뿉틔퓝쪱뗃돶틔쿂뷡싛ꎺ 45
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 1.짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖믡쿔훸펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖믡컼틽믺릹춶헟퓶볓돖막뇈샽ꆣ 2.짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖늻믡뛔믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ 3.짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽믡쿔훸펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꎬ엉쿖쮮욽풽룟ꎬ풽쓜릻듙쪹믺릹춶헟퓶볓돖막뇈샽ꆣ 4.짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽늻믡뛔믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ 5.믺릹춶헟돖막폫럱믡뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽폐쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ쟒폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾웤엉쿖쮮욽튪룟폚쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꆣ 6.믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽믡쿔훸펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꆣ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽풽룟뗄짏쫐릫쮾웤엉쿖쮮욽튪쿔훸뎬맽믺릹춶헟돖막뷏뗍뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꆣ 7.믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ 뗚뛾뷚 뇤솿쿠맘탔닢쫔 퓚뷸탐믘맩럖컶잰ꎬ컒쏇탨튪뛔쒣탍훐뗄쿠맘뇤솿뷸탐쿠맘탔닢쫔ꎬ쒿뗄쫇캪쇋볬닢뇤솿볤쫇럱폐듦퓚뷏잿쿠맘탔뗄쟩탎ꎬ듓뛸믡뛔믘맩뫳뗄춳볆뷡맻닺짺벰뷏듳펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇쪹폃뛔쿠맘뇤솿뗄춳볆쫽뻝뷸탐쿠맘탔닢쫔ꎬ뷡맻죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 뇤솿쿠맘탔닢쫔뇭 Correlations DPS IIR EPS LEV SIZE CASHFLOWPSGROWTHRATIO NATURE 1/TURNOVERpaixian chigu **************1 .203 .290 .163 .200 .004 .132 .009 .336 .438DPS .000 .000 .084 .000 .000 .815 .000 .585 .584 .000 .000 **************.253 1 .312 .218 .211 .028 .252 .193IIR .000 .000 .213 .000 .000 .867 .065 .104 .009 .000 .000 ***************EPS .470 .453 1 .158 .254 .139 .002 .164 .23946
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 .000 .000 .026 .000 .000 .745 .000 .892 .557 .000 .000 ********** 1 .001 .000 .825 .000 .000 .439 .947 .161 .026 .847 .027 .003 ******************.186 .340 .260 .255 1 .204 .003 .264 .284 .200 .189SIZE .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .865 .000 .000 .901 .000 .000 ****************.224 .266 .344 .014 .285 1 .031 .088 .078 .100 .100CASHFLOWPS .000 .000 .000 .370 .000 .057 .000 .000 .074 .000 .000 ********.000 .062 .074 1 .015 .016 .003 GROWTH .967 .379 .000 .000 .001 .000 .349 .315 .917 .477 .851 ******************.164 .040 .223 .215 .117 .239 .001 .120 .142RATIO .000 .019 .000 .010 .000 .000 .005 .000 .934 .000 .000 **********.022 .036 .060 .284 .120 .247 1 .017 .037 .020 NATURE .165 .035 .802 .000 .000 .000 .805 .000 .298 .019 .206 ****************.147 .098 .184 .056 .128 .055 1 .028 .016 1/TURNOVER .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .354 .000 .001 .081 .312 *********************.490 .279 .277 .194 .151 .037 .133 1 .467paixian .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .019 .000 .000 ******************.415 .229 .413 .183 .168 .000 .144 .020 .156 .467 1 chigu .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .985 .000 .206 .000 .000 **. Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 힢ꎺ뇭룱폒짏랽쿔쪾뗄쫇pearson쿠맘탔볬퇩ꎬퟳ쿂랽쿔쪾뗄쫇spearman쿠맘탔볬퇩 평짏뇭훐뗄뇤솿쿠맘탔닢쫔뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ쯹폐뇤솿횮볤뗄쿠맘탔믹놾짏뚼뒦폚뗄쮮욽틔쿂ꎬ헢뇭쏷뇤솿뻹늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢ꎬ쒣탍뗄뿉뾿탔뗃떽폐킧퇩횤ꆣ 47
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 뗚죽뷚 뛠풪쿟탔믘맩뷡맻 죧뫎뷢쫍짏쫶뗄쿠맘맘쾵쓘ꎬ떽뗗쫇믺릹춶헟맘힢짏쫐릫쮾막샻헾닟ꎬ룹뻝짏쫐릫쮾뗄쿖뷰막샻쮮욽살톡퓱춶ퟩ뫏ꎬ뮹쫇믺릹춶헟믽벫닎폫짏쫐릫뗄훎샭ꎬ펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾뗄쿖뷰막샻헾닟?믺릹춶헟퓚짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐냧퇝ퟅ뫎훖뷇즫ꎬ쯻쏇폫짏쫐릫쮾뗄쿖뷰막샻헾닟뗄맘쾵죧뫎쓘? 튻ꆢ믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟펰쿬볬퇩 ꎨ튻ꎩ볙짨1볬퇩 캪볬퇩믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽폐컞펰쿬벰펰쿬돌뛈죧뫎ꎬ튲벴믺릹춶헟춶뻶닟뺿뺹쫇럱믡펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻헾닟ꆣ컒쏇럖뇰틔짏쫐릫쮾떱웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍떱웚엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔잰웚믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막chiguퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱볓죫뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뻶닟뗄쿠맘뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ붫쫽뻝듺믘쒣탍1ꆢ2ꎬ럖뇰뷸탐Logistics믘맩뫍뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꆣ뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍1뫍쒣탍2믘맩럖컶뷡맻 쒣탍1ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ 쒣탍2ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 . Wald 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 T횵 VIF ∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ − ꎿ − ∗∗∗∗∗∗chigu+ + GROWTH + +∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS+ + ∗∗∗CASHFLOWPS + + ∗∗∗LEV -− - ∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE+ + ∗RATIO + + ∗∗∗∗∗∗NATURE ꎿ ꎿ 0049 .48
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 쒣탍1 Nagelkerke R-square= Chi-square= df=8 Sig.= 쒣탍2 Adjusted R-squared= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐쒣탍1뫍쒣탍2뗄뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막뛔폚짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖벰엉쿖쮮욽뗈퓚춳볆짏뻹폐ퟅ쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘펰쿬ꎬ헢뇭쏷죴믺릹춶헟톡퓱돖폐쒳볒짏쫐릫쮾막럝ꎬ퓲헢볒짏쫐릫쮾룼폐뿉쓜뷸탐엉쿖믲웤엉쿖쮮욽룼룟ꎬ헢튲듓춳볆볬퇩짏횧돖쇋볙짨1뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ듓뿘훆뇤솿짏살뾴ꎬ웳튵펯샻쓜솦EPSꆢ웳튵맦쒣SIZEꆢ뿘막막뚫탔훊NATURE뗈퓚쒣탍1뫍2훐폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽뻹쿠맘ꎬ쟒퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿔훸ꎬ헢뇭쏷웳튵펯샻쓜솦풽잿ꆢ맦쒣풽듳ꆢ캪맺폐막뿘막ꎬ퓲짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊풽듳ꆢ엉쿖쮮욽풽룟ꎬ뛸헢뫍컒쏇횮잰뗄풤웚튲쿠튻훂ꆣ컒쏇튲랢쿖웳튵뢺햮쟩뿶LEV뫍뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽RATIO퓚쒣탍1훐뷡맻쿔훸뛸퓚쒣탍2훐뷡맻늻쿔훸ꎬ뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿CASHFLOWPS퓚쒣탍2훐뷡맻쿔훸뛸퓚쒣탍1훐뷡맻늻쿔훸ꎬ헢뇭쏷웳튵뢺햮뇈싊풽킡ꆢ뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽풽듳ꎬ퓲짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊풽듳ꎬ떫뛔엉쿖쮮욽좴쎻쪲쎴첫듳펰쿬ꎻ웳튵뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿풽듳ꎬ엉쿖쮮욽풽룟ꎬ떫짏쫐릫쮾늻믡틲듋뛸쳡룟엉쿖룅싊ꆣ웳튵돉뎤쓜솦GROWTH퓚솽룶쒣탍훐뻹퓚춳볆짏늻돊쿖돶쿔훸펰쿬맘쾵ꎬ헢쮵쏷웳튵돉뎤쓜솦뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽펰쿬늻듳ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ쒣탍1뗄Chi-square캪뫍df캪8ꎬ뇭쏷쒣탍1뮹늻듭ꎬ쒣탍2뗄DW횵뷓뷼2ꎬ뇭쏷닐닮횮볤늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢ꎬVIF2횵뷓뷼1ꎬ뇭쏷뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢늻퇏훘ꎬF횵뫍Adjusted R횵튲뇭쏷쒣탍뗄쓢뫏폅뛈늻듭ꆣퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ솽룶쒣탍뗄믘맩킧맻늻듭ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ볙짨2볬퇩 캪볬퇩믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽폐컞펰쿬벰펰쿬돌뛈죧뫎ꆣ컒쏇럖뇰틔짏쫐릫쮾떱웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍떱웚엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔잰웚믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽IIRퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱볓죫뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뻶닟뗄쿠맘뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ붫쫽뻝듺믘쒣탍3ꆢ4ꎬ럖뇰뷸49
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 탐Logistics믘맩뫍뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꆣ뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍3뫍쒣탍4믘맩럖컶뷡맻 쒣탍3ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ 쒣탍4ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 . Wald 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 T횵 VIF ∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ − ꎿ − ∗∗∗∗∗∗IIR+306 + .626 + +∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS+ + .036 730075 .∗∗∗CASHFLOWPS + + ∗∗∗LEV -− - ∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE+ 0216 + . ∗∗RATIO + + ∗∗∗∗∗NATURE ꎿ 001 ꎿ . 쒣탍3 Nagelkerke R-square= Chi-square= df=8 Sig.= 쒣탍4 Adjusted R-squared= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐쒣탍3뫍쒣탍4뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뛔폚짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖벰엉쿖쮮욽뗈퓚춳볆짏뻹폐ퟅ헽쿠맘펰쿬ꎬ쟒퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿔훸ꎬ헢뇭쏷믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽풽룟ꎬ퓲짏쫐릫쮾룼폐뿉쓜뷸탐엉쿖믲웤엉쿖쮮욽룼룟ꎬ헢튲듓춳볆볬퇩짏횧돖쇋볙짨2뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣ듓쿠맘쾵쫽뗄뇈뷏짏살뾴ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뗄펰쿬튪듳폚뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽뗄펰쿬ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ듓뿘훆뇤솿짏살뾴ꎬ웤믘맩뷡맻믹놾뚼폫짏쫶볙짨1훐뗄믘맩뷡맻쿠튻훂ꎬ웤뷡싛튲믹놾튻훂ꎬ뛸헢뫍컒쏇횮잰뗄풤웚튲쿠튻훂ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ쒣탍3뗄Chi-square횵뫍df횵튲뇭쏷쒣탍3뮹늻듭ꎬ쒣탍4뗄DW횵뷓뷼2ꎬ뇭쏷닐닮횮볤늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢ꎬVIF횵뷓뷼1ꎬ뇭쏷뛠훘릲쿟탔2컊쳢늻퇏훘ꎬF횵뫍Adjusted R횵튲뇭쏷쒣탍뗄쓢뫏폅뛈늻듭ꆣퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ쒣탍뗄믘맩킧맻늻듭ꆣ 50
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 ꎨ죽ꎩ볙짨3볬퇩 캪볬퇩믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽폐컞펰쿬벰펰쿬돌뛈죧뫎ꆣ컒쏇럖뇰틔짏쫐릫쮾떱웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍떱웚엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔잰웚믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚1/TURNOVERퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱볓죫뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뻶닟뗄쿠맘뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ붫쫽뻝듺믘쒣탍5ꆢ6ꎬ럖뇰뷸탐Logistics믘맩뫍뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꆣ웤뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍5뫍쒣탍6믘맩럖컶뷡맻 쒣탍5ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ 쒣탍6ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 . Wald 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 T횵 VIF ∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ − ꎿ − 1/TURNOVER + + GROWTH ++∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS+ + ∗∗∗CASHFLOWPS + + 0 ∗∗∗∗∗∗LEV -− - − ∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE+ + 0083 .∗∗∗∗∗∗RATIO + + 0063 .NATURE ꎿ ꎿ 쒣탍5 Nagelkerke R-square= Chi-square= df=8 Sig.= 쒣탍6 Adjusted R-squared= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐쒣탍5뫍쒣탍6뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚1/TURNOVER뛔폚짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖paixian벰엉쿖쮮욽DPS뗈퓚춳볆짏뻹쎻폐ퟅ쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ볙짨3뗄쿠맘뷡싛늢쎻폐듓춳볆쫽뻝짏뗃떽횧돖ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ듓뿘훆뇤솿짏살뾴ꎬ웤믘맩뷡맻믹놾뚼폫짏쫶볙짨1ꆢ2훐뗄믘맩뷡맻믹놾쿠튻훂ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ쒣탍5뗄Chi-square횵뫍df횵튲뇭쏷쒣탍5뮹늻듭ꎬ쒣탍6뗄DW횵뷓뷼2ꎬ뇭쏷닐닮횮볤늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢ꎬVIF횵뷓뷼1ꎬ뇭쏷뛠훘릲쿟탔51
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 2컊쳢늻퇏훘ꎬF횵뫍Adjusted R횵튲뇭쏷쒣탍뗄쓢뫏폅뛈늻듭ꆣퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ헢솽룶쒣탍뗄믘맩킧맻늻듭ꆣ ퟷ헟죏캪ꎬ볙짨3뗄샭싛믹뒡벰샭싛쒣탍놾짭늢쎻폐첫듳좱쿝ꎬ헢듓쿠맘춳볆쫽뻝짏뿉틔뗃떽뷒쪾ꎬ솽룶쒣탍뗄뷢쫍킧맻뮹쫇늻듭뗄ꆣ뛸떼훂춳볆쫽뻝폫볙짨뷡싛늻쿠럻뫏뗄풭틲훷튪퓚폚믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뗄쫽뻝뷏돖막뇈샽뗄쫽뻝뛸퇔ꎬ튪룼쓑틔뫢솿ꆣ평폚돖막훜웚뫢솿뗄쫇튻뛎쪱볤ꎬ뛸퓚헢웚볤훐뷸돶뗄믺릹춶헟쫽쒿쓑틔솿볆ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막쪱볤룼볓쓑틔ힼ좷볆솿돶ꎬ떼훂컒쏇횻쓜틔뷏쒣뫽뗄쫽뻝살볓틔쳦듺뫢솿ꎬ늢뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽ퟮ훕뗄춳볆뷡맻ꆣ놾컄벴쫇춨맽믺릹춶헟쓪뻹뮻쫖싊폫믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚볤뗄싟벭맘쾵살볓틔뫢솿ꎬ좱랦폐쮵럾솦뗄ퟴ횤볓틔횧독ꆣ춨맽뛔좨췾웚뾯짏퇐뺿믺릹춶헟쿠맘컄헂뗄ퟜ뷡ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ뻸듳뛠쫽컄헂횻쫇쪹폃떽쇋믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽ꆢ믺릹춶헟쫽솿뗈캬뛈ꎬ뛸좱랦듓믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뗄쫓뷇쯹뷸탐뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뛸헢튲뿉쯣ퟷ쫇놾컄뗄튻룶뒴탂뗣냉ꆣ 뛾ꆢ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟뛔믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟펰쿬볬퇩 ꎨ튻ꎩ볙짨4볬퇩 캪볬퇩짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊벰엉쿖쮮욽뛔믺릹춶헟돖막폫럱쫇럱폐펰쿬벰펰쿬돌뛈죧뫎ꆣ컒쏇럖뇰틔짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍떱웚엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔떱웚믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막chiguퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱볓죫뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟뗄쿠맘뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ붫쫽뻝듺믘쒣탍7ꆢ8ꎬ뷸탐Logistics믘맩ꆣ웤뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍7뫍쒣탍8믘맩럖컶뷡맻 쒣탍7ꎨ뷢쫍뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ 쒣탍8ꎨ뷢쫍뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 . Wald 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 . Wald ∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ − ꎿ − ∗∗∗paixian + ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ 52
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 ∗∗∗DPS ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ + GROWTH++∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS + + + + LEV ∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE+ + + + NATURE ꎿ ꎿ 쒣탍7 Nagelkerke R-square= Chi-square= df=8 Sig.= 쒣탍8 Nagelkerke R-square= Chi-square= df=8 Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐쒣탍7뫍쒣탍8뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅싊벰엉쿖쮮욽뛔믺릹춶헟떱웚쫇럱돖막폐헽쿠맘펰쿬ꎬ쟒퓚춳볆짏1%뗄쮮욽폐쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ뛸춨맽뛔뛾헟쿠맘쾵쫽듳킡뗄뇈뷏ꎬ컒쏇튲랢쿖짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖쮮욽쿠뛔폚엉쿖룅싊뛸퇔쓜릻룼컼틽떱웚믺릹춶헟톡퓱돖막ꆣ헢뇭쏷짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽풽룟ꆢ엉쿖룅싊풽듳ꎬ퓲풽쓜릻컼틽믺릹춶헟돖막ꎬ헢튲펡횤쇋볙짨4뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ듓뿘훆뇤솿짏살뾴ꎬ웳튵펯샻쓜솦EPSꆢ웳튵맦쒣SIZE퓚쒣탍7뫍쒣탍8훐뻹폫믺릹춶헟돖막폫럱chigu퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿔훸헽쿠맘ꎬ헢뇭쏷웳튵펯샻쓜솦풽잿ꆢ웳튵맦쒣풽듳ꎬ쓇쎴믺릹춶헟룼풸틢톡퓱돖막ꎬ헢폫풤웚튲쿠튻훂ꆣ뛸웤쯻뗄뿘훆뇤솿죧웳튵돉뎤쓜솦GROWTHꆢ웳튵뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿CASHFLOWPSꆢ웳튵뢺햮쟩뿶LEVꆢ뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽RATIOꆢ뗚튻듳막뚫탔훊NATURE뗈뻹늻퓚춳볆짏폫믺릹춶헟돖막폫럱chigu폐쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ튲뇭쏷헢킩틲쯘뛔믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟펰쿬늻듳ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ솽룶쒣탍뗄2Nagelkerke R횵ꆢChi-square횵ꆢdf횵뗈뻹뇭쏷헢솽룶쒣탍뗄믘맩킧맻짐쯣늻듭ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ볙짨5볬퇩 캪볬퇩짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊벰엉쿖쮮욽뛔믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽쫇럱폐펰쿬벰53
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 펰쿬돌뛈죧뫎ꆣ컒쏇럖뇰틔짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍떱웚엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔떱웚믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽IIRퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱볓죫뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟뗄쿠맘뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ붫쫽뻝듺믘쒣탍9ꆢ10ꎬ뷸탐뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꆣ웤뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍9뫍쒣탍10믘맩럖컶뷡맻 쒣탍9ꎨ뷢쫍뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ 쒣탍10ꎨ뷢쫍뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 T횵 VIF 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 T횵 VIF ∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ − ꎿ −0266 .∗∗∗paixian + ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ ∗∗∗DPS ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ + 0 GROWTH++∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS + + ∗∗∗∗∗∗CASHFLOWPS + 0009 + .0 1..009174 LEV ∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE+ + ∗∗∗∗∗∗RATIO +− + −0 .001NATURE ꎿ ꎿ 쒣탍9 Adjusted R-square= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 쒣탍10 Adjusted R-square= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐쒣탍9뫍쒣탍10뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅싊벰엉쿖쮮욽뛔믺릹춶헟떱웚돖막뇈샽폐헽쿠맘펰쿬ꎬ쟒퓚춳볆짏1%뗄쮮욽폐쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ뛸춨맽뛔뛾헟쿠맘쾵쫽듳킡뗄뇈뷏ꎬ컒쏇튲랢쿖짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖쮮욽쿠뛔폚엉쿖룅싊뛸퇔쓜릻룼컼틽떱웚믺릹춶헟퓶볓돖막ꆣ헢뇭쏷짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽풽룟ꆢ엉쿖룅싊풽듳ꎬ퓲풽쓜릻컼틽믺릹춶헟퓶볓돖막뇈샽ꎬ헢튲펡횤쇋볙짨5뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ듓뿘훆뇤솿짏살뾴ꎬ웳튵펯샻쓜솦EPSꆢ웳튵뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿CASHFLOWPSꆢ웳튵맦쒣SIZEꆢ뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽RATIO뗈퓚쒣탍9뫍쒣탍10훐뻹폫믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽IIR퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿔훸헽54
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 쿠맘ꎬ헢뇭쏷웳튵펯샻쓜솦풽잿ꆢ웳튵뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿풽듳ꆢ웳튵맦쒣풽듳ꆢ뗚튻듳막뚫돖막뇈샽풽킡ꎬ쓇쎴믺릹춶헟룼풸틢톡퓱퓶볓돖막뇈샽ꎬ헢폫풤웚튲쿠튻훂ꆣ뛸웤쯻뗄뿘훆뇤솿죧웳튵돉뎤쓜솦GROWTHꆢ웳튵뢺햮쟩뿶LEVꆢ뗚튻듳막뚫탔훊NATURE뗈뻹늻퓚춳볆짏폫믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽IIR폐쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ튲뇭쏷헢킩틲쯘뛔믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟펰쿬늻듳ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ솽룶쒣탍뗄Adjusted R-square횵ꆢF횵뻹뇭쏷솽룶쒣탍뗄쓢뫏폅뛈짐쯣늻듭ꎬDW횵뷓뷼폚2ꎬ뇭쏷닐닮횮볤늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢ꎬVIF횵뷓뷼1ꎬ튲뇭쏷뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢늻퇏훘ꆣퟜ쳥살쮵ꎬ솽룶쒣탍뗄믘맩킧맻늻듭ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ볙짨6볬퇩 뺡맜잰쏦퇐뺿믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊벰엉쿖쮮욽뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆뷡맻늢늻샭쿫ꎬ컒쏇죔탨튪뷨훺믘맩럖컶살볬퇩짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊벰엉쿖쮮욽뛔믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚쫇럱폐펰쿬벰펰쿬돌뛈죧뫎ꆣ컒쏇럖뇰틔짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍떱웚엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ틔떱웚믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚1/TURNOVERퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ춬쪱볓죫뿉쓜믡펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟뗄쿠맘뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ붫쫽뻝듺믘쒣탍11ꆢ12ꎬ뷸탐뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꆣ웤뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍11뫍쒣탍12믘맩럖컶뷡맻 쒣탍11ꎨ뷢쫍뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ쒣탍12ꎨ뷢쫍뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 T횵 VIF 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 T횵 VIF 뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ ꎿ paixian + ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ DPS ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ ꎭ + GROWTH++ + + ∗CASHFLOWPS + − + 1 LEV + + 55
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 RATIO + + NATURE ꎿ ꎿ 1 쒣탍11 Adjusted R-square= Durbin-Watson=2 F-statistic= Sig.= 쒣탍12 Adjusted R-square= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐쒣탍11뫍쒣탍12뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅싊paixian벰엉쿖쮮욽DPS뛔믺릹춶헟떱웚돖막훜웚1/TURNOVER쎻폐뇭쿖돶쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ퓚춳볆쫽뻝짏늢쎻폐횧돖볙짨6뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣퟷ헟죏캪볙짨6뗄샭싛믹뒡늢쎻폐컊쳢ꎬ뮹쫇폫잰쏦쯹쫶벰뗄돖막훜웚뷏쓑뫢솿ꆢ횸뇪뷏쓑짨볆뗈컊쳢폐뫜듳맘쾵ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ듓뿘훆뇤솿짏살뾴ꎬ돽뺭펪탔쿖뷰쇷솿CASHFLOWPS퓚쒣탍11훐퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿔훸췢ꎬ웤폠뇤솿뻹캴뇭쿖돶쿔훸쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ헢뇭쏷헢킩틲쯘뛔믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뻶닟뷢쫍솦뛈늻듳ꆣ뺡맜DW횵뷓뷼폚2ꎬ뇭쏷닐닮횮볤늻듦퓚퇏훘뗄ퟔ쿠맘컊쳢ꎬVIF횵뷓뷼1ꎬ튲뇭쏷뛠훘릲쿟탔컊쳢늻퇏훘ꎬ떫Adjusted R-square횵뫍F횵맽뗍ꎬ쮵쏷쒣탍뗄믘맩킧맻늻릻샭쿫ꆣ 뗚쯄뷚 컈붡탔볬퇩 평폚짏쫶퇹놾헫뛔뗄쫇냼삨럖뫬뫍늻럖뫬ꆢ폐믺릹춶헟돖막뫍쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄A막짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ쯹폐쎻럖뫬뗄릫쮾ꎬ웤엉쿖쮮욽DPS뻹캪쇣ꎬ쯹폐쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄릫쮾ꎬ웤돖막뇈샽IIR뻹캪쇣ꆣ헢퇹뿉쓜믡쪹뗃퇹놾횵뗄럖늼폫샭쿫뗄헽첬럖늼욫샫맽듳ꎬ퓬돉믘맩뷡맻늻릻ힼ좷ꆣ캪룼ힼ좷뫢솿믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ컒쏇붫퇹놾쯵킡훁쯹폐럖뫬짏쫐릫쮾뫍쯹폐폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꆣ훘탂뛔쒣탍3ꆢ4ꆢ5ꆢ6ꆢ8ꆢ10ꆢ12뷸탐럖컶ꆣ 튻ꆢ쒣탍3뫍쒣탍4컈붡탔볬퇩 컒쏇냑쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄퇹놾릫쮾쳞돽뗴뫳ꎬ붫짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅56
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 싊paixian뫍엉쿖쮮욽DPS럖뇰ퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ퓙붫폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽IIRퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ늢볓죫죴룉뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ뛔쒣탍3뫍쒣탍4럖뇰뷸탐Logistics믘맩뫍뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꎬ웤믘맩뫳뗄뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍3뫍쒣탍4컈붡탔볬퇩뷡맻 쒣탍3ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ 쒣탍4ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 . Wald 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 T횵 VIF ∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ − ꎿ −0 ∗∗∗∗∗∗IIR+ + GROWTH + +∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS+ + ∗∗∗CASHFLOWPS + + ∗∗∗∗∗∗LEV -− - − ∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE+ + ∗RATIO + + ∗∗∗∗∗∗NATURE ꎿ 0 ꎿ 쒣탍3 Nagelkerke R-square= df=8 Sig.= 쒣탍4 Adjusted R-squared= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐뗄쒣탍3뫍쒣탍4뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ퓚폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾훐ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽뻹폐펰쿬ꎬ쟒뻹퓚춳볆짏1%뗄쮮욽쿔훸ꎬ헢폫붫폐믺릹춶헟돖막폫쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뻹ퟷ캪퇹놾뗄쫽뻝믹놾튻훂ꎬ쇭췢ꎬ듓뿘훆뇤솿살뾴ꎬ믹놾짏폫쎻폐쳞돽뗴컞믺릹춶헟돖막뗄ퟜ쳥퇹놾뗄쫽뻝쿠튻훂ꎬ헢튲룼볓펡횤쇋볙짨2뗄쿠맘뷡싛뗄헽좷탔ꆣ 뛾ꆢ쒣탍5뫍쒣탍6컈붡탔볬퇩 57
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 죧잰쏦튻퇹ꎬ붫쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄퇹놾릫쮾쳞돽뗴뫳ꎬ퓙붫짏쫐릫쮾잰웚엉쿖룅싊paixian뫍엉쿖쮮욽DPS럖뇰ퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ붫폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚1/TURNOVERퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ늢볓죫죴룉뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ뛔쒣탍5뫍쒣탍6럖뇰뷸탐Logistics믘맩뫍뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꎬ뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍5뫍쒣탍6컈붡탔볬퇩뷡맻 쒣탍5ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖룅싊paixianꎩ 쒣탍6ꎨ틲뇤솿=엉쿖쮮욽DPSꎩ 뇤솿 풤웚럻뫅 쾵쫽 . Wald 풤웚럻뫅쾵쫽 T횵 VIF ∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 ꎿ − ꎿ .749 − 1/TURNOVER + + GROWTH ++∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS+ + ∗∗∗CASHFLOWPS + + ∗∗∗∗∗∗LEV -− - −0 .114∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE+ + ∗∗∗∗∗∗RATIO +0 + NATURE ꎿ ꎿ 쒣탍5 Nagelkerke R-square= Chi-square= df=8 Sig.= 쒣탍6 Adjusted R-square= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 뇭훐뗄춳볆뷡맻뇭쏷쇋붫쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄퇹놾릫쮾쳞돽뗴뫳ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚1/TURNOVER뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽뗄펰쿬퓚춳볆짏틀좻늻뻟폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ헢횤쪵쇋뇭훐뗄춳볆쫽뻝뗄헦쪵탔ꎬ떫좴쎻폐펡횤볙짨3뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣ뿘훆뇤솿뗄쫽뻝뷡맻폫잰쏦뇭훐뗄뷡싛튲믹놾튻훂ꎬChi-square횵ꆢdf횵ꆢAdjusted R-square횵ꆢDW횵ꆢF횵뻹뇭쏷솽룶쒣탍뗄믘맩뷡맻뮹쯣늻듭ꆣ 죽ꆢ쒣탍8ꆢ10ꆢ12컈붡탔볬퇩 58
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 컒쏇냑쎻폐엉쿖뗄퇹놾릫쮾쳞돽뗴뫳ꎬ붫폐엉쿖뗄짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽DPSퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ퓙냑믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막chiguꆢ돖막뇈샽IIRꆢ돖막훜웚1/TURNOVER럖뇰ퟷ캪놻뷢쫍뇤솿ꎬ늢볓죫죴룉뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ뛔쒣탍8ꆢ10ꆢ12뻹뷸탐뛠풪쿟탔믘맩ꎬ웤뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭 쒣탍8ꆢ쒣탍10뫍쒣탍12컈붡탔볬퇩뷡맻 쒣탍8 쒣탍10 쒣탍12 뇤솿 쾵쫽 . Wald 쾵쫽 T횵 VIF 쾵쫽 T횵 VIF ∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 −26674 −0 .1933923 ..∗∗∗∗DPS 13 0 GROWTH ∗∗∗∗∗∗EPS 0292 .∗∗∗CASHFLOWPS 1 ∗∗∗LEV −2 22..074918 ∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZE 1341 .∗∗∗RATIO − ∗∗∗NATURE −0 4..282114 쒣탍8 Nagelkerke R-square= Chi-square= df=8 Sig.= 쒣탍10 Adjusted R-square= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 쒣탍12 Adjusted R-square= Durbin-Watson= F-statistic= Sig.= 힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 평뇭훐뗄쫽뻝ꎬ컒쏇랢쿖퓚붫쎻폐엉쿖뗄퇹놾릫쮾쳞돽뫳ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽뛔믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막ꆢ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽퓚춳볆짏폐쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘펰쿬ꎬ헢횤쪵쇋뇭폫뇭훐쫽뻝뷡맻뗄헦쪵탔ꎬ튲펡횤쇋볙짨4폫볙짨5뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣ떫컒쏇뮹랢쿖짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽뛔폚믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뛸퇔ꎬ좴퓚춳볆짏틀좻쎻폐죎뫎쿔훸맘쾵ꆣ헢횤쪵쇋뇭훐뗄춳볆쫽뻝뗄헦쪵탔ꎬ떫좴쎻폐펡횤볙짨6뗄쿠맘뷡싛ꆣ 쯄ꆢ쒣탍1ꆢ2ꆢ7ꆢ9ꆢ11컈붡탔볬퇩 59
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 뛔폚쒣탍1ꆢ2ꆢ7ꆢ9ꆢ11ꎬ컒쏇닉좡쳞돽쒣탍훐뗄뿘훆뇤솿퓙뷸탐믘맩럖컶뗄랽쪽살볬닢헢컥룶쒣탍뗄컈붡탔뺿뺹죧뫎ꎬ쿞폚욪럹ꎬ듋뒦뻍늻퓙튻튻쇐돶ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ쒣탍1ꆢ2ꆢ7ꆢ9ꆢ11훐쫽뻝뗄뷡싛폫잰쏦쯹뗃돶뗄뷡싛믹놾튻훂ꎬ헢뇭쏷쇋퓚쳞돽뿘훆뇤솿뫳ꎬퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿뗄믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막chigu뛔폚짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊뫍엉쿖쮮욽뻹퓚춳볆짏뻟폐쿔훸헽쿠맘맘쾵ꎻퟷ캪짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖룅싊paixian뛔폚믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막뫍믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽튲뻹퓚춳볆짏뻟폐쿔훸헽쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ떫좴쎻폐횤쪵paixian퓚춳볆짏폫믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚폐ퟅ쿠춬뗄쿔훸헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ헢튲펡횤쇋볙짨1ꆢ4ꆢ5뗄뷡싛뗄헽좷탔ꎬ볙짨6뗄쿠맘뷡싛늢쎻폐뗃떽횤쪵ꆣ 뗚컥뷚 쓚짺탔볬퇩 춨맽뛔볙짨1ꆢ2ꆢ4ꆢ5뗄쿠맘뷡싛뷸탐ퟜ뷡ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟볤듦퓚ퟅ훘튪맘쾵ꎬ믺릹춶헟톡퓱돖막ꆢ퓶볓돖막뇈샽뻹믡듌벤짏쫐릫쮾톡퓱엉쿖믲쫇쳡룟엉쿖쮮욽ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾톡퓱엉쿖ꆢ쳡룟엉쿖쮮욽튲믡폕쪹믺릹춶헟톡퓱돖막틖믲쫇퓶볓돖막뇈샽ꆣ튲벴컒쏇잰쏦쯹쳡떽뗄믺릹춶헟춨맽닎폫짏쫐릫쮾훎샭ꎬ듙쪹웳튵톡퓱엉쿖뗄랽쪽살붵뗍듺샭돉놾ꎬ뛸짏쫐릫쮾뗄엉쿖헾닟튲뿉ퟷ캪믺릹춶헟춶톡퓱뗄틀뻝ꆣ 캪뷸튻늽쏷좷뺿뺹쫇춨맽믺릹춶헟ퟔ짭얬솦룄뇤쇋짏쫐릫쮾뗄엉쿖헾닟ꎬ뮹쫇믺릹춶헟붫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟ퟷ캪웤춶뻶닟뗄틀뻝ꎬ컒쏇폐뇘튪뷸탐쿠맘춳볆럖컶ꎬ헒돶웤훐뗄싶싧맘쾵ꆣ튶붨랼ꆢ샮떤쏉뫍랽쟭ꎨ2009ꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻쿔쪾ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾탅쾢춸쏷뛈횮볤듦퓚쓚짺탔컊쳢ꎬ죏캪평ꆰ틅슩뇤솿ꆱ쯹떼훂뗄쓚짺탔컊쳢뫍평ꆰ뮥캪틲맻ꆱ뛸떼훂뗄쓚짺탔컊쳢뻹믡펰쿬떽춳볆뷡맻ꎬ횻늻맽잰헟떼훂뗄펰쿬튪짔죵폚뫳헟ꆣ캪듋ꎬ컒쏇뷨본컌뫩늨뫍컢쫀얩ꎨ2007ꎩ뗄랽램닉좡훍뫳튻웚솪솢랽돌ퟩ뗄탎쪽뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ DPSt=α0+α1IIRt+α2DPSt−1+α3GROWTHt+α4EPSt+α5CASHFLOWPSt+α6LEVt +α7SIZEt+α8RATIOt+α9NATUREt+εi60 IIRt=β0+β1DPSt+β2IIRt−1+β3GROWTHt+β4EPSt+β5CASHFLOWPSt+β6LEVt+β7SIZEt+β8RATIOt+β9NATUREt+ϕi
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 컒쏇붫짏쏦뗄랽돌쏼쏻캪랽돌1ꎬ쿂쏦뗄랽돌쏼쏻캪랽돌2ꆣ웤훐ꎬDPSt듺뇭떱웚짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꎬIIRt듺뇭믺릹춶헟떱웚돖막뇈샽ꎬDPSt−1듺뇭잰웚짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꎬ웤폠뇤솿뫍잰쏦쯹쫶뗄몬틥쿠춬ꆣ죴랽돌1훐뗄α1쿔훸ꎬ뇭쏷믺릹춶헟춶뻶닟펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽ꎻ죴랽돌2훐뗄β1쿔훸ꎬ퓲뇭쏷짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽펰쿬믺릹춶헟춶뻶닟ꆣ평폚솽룶랽돌뻹쫇맽뛉쪶뇰랽돌ꎬ틲뛸닉폃솽뷗뛎ퟮ킡뛾돋믘맩램ꎨ2SLSꎩ살뷸탐볬퇩ꎬ뇭쇐쪾쇋믘맩뷡맻ꎺ 뇭 솽뷗뛎ퟮ킡뛾돋믘맩춳볆뷡맻 뇤솿 솪솢랽돌1 솪솢랽돌2 솪솢랽돌1 솪솢랽돌2 ∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗뎣쫽쿮 − − ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗∗∗∗DPSt−1 ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗∗∗∗IIRt−1 ∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗EPSt − ∗∗∗∗∗∗CASHFLOWPSt LEVt ∗∗∗∗∗∗∗SIZEt − ∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗∗RATIOt − − − Adjust− F−힢ꎺ∗∗∗듺뇭퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗∗듺뇭퓚5%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸 ∗듺뇭퓚10%뗄쮮욽쿂쿔훸듓뇭쓚짺탔뗄믘맩뷡맻컒쏇뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ랽돌1훐뗄쾵쫽α1뫍랽돌2훐뗄쾵쫽β1뻹퓚춳볆짏뇭쿖돶쿔훸탔ꎬ헢뇭쏷믺릹춶헟돖막폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖횮볤듦퓚튻뚨뗄쓚짺탔컊쳢ꎬ뛸헢훖쓚짺탔컊쳢쫇평폚쮫랽뮥캪틲맻맘쾵뗄듦퓚뛸떼훂뗄ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷쇋믺릹춶헟춨맽뛔짏쫐릫쮾뷸탐돖막ꎬ얬솦닎폫짏쫐릫61
뗚컥헂 쪵횤뷡맻벰럖컶 쮾훎샭ꎬ듓뛸펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟ꎻ뛸짏쫐릫쮾춨맽웤엉쿖헾닟ꎬ뒫뗝돶폫웤쯻짏쫐릫쮾쿠뇈룼폅뗄탅뫅ꎬ뷸뛸컼틽믺릹춶헟닎폫돖막ꎬ믺릹춶헟퓚뷸탐춶뻶닟쪱튲틑붫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟ퟷ캪웤쫇럱돖막뗄훘튪틀뻝ꆣ 62
뗚쇹헂 퇐뺿뷡싛벰헾닟붨틩 뗚쇹헂 퇐뺿뷡싛벰헾닟붨틩 뗚튻뷚 퇐뺿뷡싛 놾컄춨맽붫2007-2009쓪헢죽쓪뗄믺릹춶헟쿠맘돖막쫽뻝(훷튪냼삨죽룶랽쏦ꎺ믺릹춶헟돖막룅싊chiguꆢ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽IIRꆢ믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚1/TURNOVER)폫헢죽쓪짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻엉랢뗄쫽뻝뷸탐쏨쫶탔춳볆럖컶ꆢLogistics믘맩럖컶벰뛠풪쿟탔믘맩럖컶뫳ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶헢퇹뗄뷡싛ꎺ 뗚튻ꎬ믺릹춶헟쫇럱돖막믡쿔훸뗘펰쿬짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟ꆣ폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾쫽솿튪풶풶뎬맽늻돖막ퟩ뗄짏쫐릫쮾쫽솿ꎬ웤엉쿖룅싊ꆢ엉쿖쮮욽튲뻹튪룟폚쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ쟒뛾헟닮틬퓚춳볆짏럇뎣쿔훸ꆣ 뗚뛾ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽믡쿔훸뗘펰쿬떽짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟ꆣ믺릹춶헟돖막뇈샽풽룟뗄짏쫐릫쮾웤엉쿖룅싊ꆢ엉쿖쮮욽뻹튪룟폚쎻폐믺릹춶헟돖막뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ쟒뛾헟닮틬퓚춳볆짏럇뎣쿔훸ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟뗄펰쿬늻릻쏷샊ꆣ춨맽쪹폃뮻쫖싊릹붨뗄믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚횸뇪1/TURNOVER뛔짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쫽뻝뷸탐믘맩럖컶ꎬ웤뷡맻퓚춳볆짏늻쿔훸ꎬ쎻폐횧돖뛾헟돊쿖헽쿠맘펰쿬뗄뷡싛ꆣ 뗚쯄ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾쫇럱엉쿖믡쿔훸뗘펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟ꆣ엉쿖룅싊풽듳뗄짏쫐릫쮾웤믺릹춶헟돖막룅싊벰돖막뇈샽뻹튪룟폚엉쿖룅싊뷏킡뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ쟒뛾헟닮틬퓚춳볆짏럇뎣쿔훸ꎬ떫뛔폚믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뗄펰쿬퓚춳볆짏늻쿔훸ꆣ 뗚컥ꎬ짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖쮮욽믡쿔훸뗘펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟ꆣ엉쿖쮮욽풽룟뗄짏쫐릫쮾웤믺릹춶헟돖막룅싊벰돖막뇈샽뻹튪룟폚엉쿖쮮욽뷏뗍뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ쟒뛾헟닮틬퓚춳볆짏럇뎣쿔훸ꎬ떫뛔폚믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뗄펰쿬퓚춳볆짏늻쿔훸ꆣ 63
뗚쇹헂 퇐뺿뷡싛벰헾닟붨틩 뗚쇹ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟폫짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟횮볤듦퓚ꆰ뮥캪틲맻ꆱ탔뗄쓚짺탔컊쳢ꆣ믺릹춶헟돖막벰짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖뻹믡펰쿬떽뇋듋ꎬ폚ퟷ헟쮮욽ꎬ뛾헟뺿뺹뫎헟캪틲ꆢ뫎헟캪맻늢쎻폐퓚놾컄훐뗃떽뎹뗗뷒쪾ꆣ 뗚뛾뷚 헾닟붨틩 퓚쿖뷱뗄놾쫐뎡훐ꎬ믺릹춶헟틑뺭돉캪튻횧늻뿉믲좱뗄훘튪솦솿ꎬ캪좫쟲놾쫐뎡뗄랱죙폫컈뚨ퟷ돶쇋ퟔ벺뗄릱쿗ꆣ평놾컄뗄쿠맘뷡싛컒쏇튲횪뗀믺릹춶헟틑뺭늻뷶뷶쿞폚돵쪼뗄춨맽놾퓋ퟷ살믱좡룟폚쫐뎡욽뻹쫕틦뗄놾쫕틦ꎬ뛸룼뛠뗄쫇닎폫떽쇋짏쫐릫쮾뗄훎샭훐살ꎬ춨맽랢믓ퟔ벺뗄놾폅쫆ꆢ튵폅쫆뗈ꎬ닎폫떽릫쮾뗄죕뎣뻶닟훐죧쿖뷰막샻엉쿖뗈ꆣ춨맽틽죫틔믺릹춶헟캪듺뇭뗄놾쫐뎡볠맜ꎬ룄뇤쇋짏쫐릫쮾틔췹횻쫇뾿헾뢮볠맜뫍ퟔ짭풼쫸뗄볠맜쒣쪽ꎬ놣횤쇋놾쫐뎡컈뚨쿲잰랢햹ꆣ떫쫇쫽뻝폫뺭퇩뻹뇭쏷믺릹춶헟뗄ퟔ짭잱솦죔캴췪좫랢믓돶살ꎬ컒쏇죔탨튪퓚쒳킩랽쏦ퟶ돶얬솦살쪹뗃믺릹춶헟룼뫃ꆢ룼믽벫뗘랢믓ퟔ짭뗄막뚫볠맜ퟷ폃ꆣ 뻟쳥뻙듫냼삨ꎺ 뗚튻ꎬ췪짆쫐뎡뮷뺳ꎬ듙쪹믺릹춶헟룼뫃뗘닎폫떽짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐살ꆣ쿖폐뗄쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆뺡맜놻횤쏷쫇탐횮폐킧뗄ꎬ떫죔좻듦퓚ퟅ훮뛠뗄슩뚴ꎬ늢퓬돉쇋죧ꆰ뗂슡쾵ꆱꆢ훐몽폍뗄웆닺뗈뗈캣벰짧믡컈뚨뗄늻솼쫂볾뗄랢짺ꆣ쳥훆늻붡좫ꎬ벴쪹믺릹춶헟퓙폐탄쿫닎폫떽릫쮾훎샭훐살튲횻쫇뺵뮨쮮퓂ꎬ쓑틔랢믓돶쪵킧ꎬퟮ훕뗄뷡맻붫쫇헻룶쫐뎡뗄룼볓늻컈뚨ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇폐뇘튪룼볓췪짆쫐뎡뮷뺳ꎬ놣횤믺릹춶헟뗄욽컈쿲잰랢햹ꆣ 뗚뛾ꎬ쿻돽볓퓚믺릹춶헟짭짏뗄훆뛈볏쯸ꎬ쪹횮룼쟡쯉뗘닎폫떽짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐살ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ쯤좻맺볒튻퓙뎫떼ꆰ듳솦랢햹믺릹춶헟ꆱꎬ떫쿖쪵뗄쟩뿶쫇믺릹춶헟뗄춶탐캪퓚쒳킩랽쏦틀좻쫜떽퇏룱풼쫸ꎬ죧뛔QFII춶쿞뛮뗄맦뚨벰QDII닎폫뺳췢춶뗄퇏룱쿞뚨뗈뗈ꎬ헢킩뚼떼훂쇋믺릹춶헟뛌웚탐캪뗄랢짺ꎬ튲뛔헻룶놾쫐뎡닺짺쇋늻솼뗄펰쿬ꆣ훆뛈훆뚨헟폐뇘튪뛔튻킩쫸뢿64
뗚쇹헂 퇐뺿뷡싛벰헾닟붨틩 믺릹춶헟쫖뷅뗄훆뛈뷸탐췪짆ꎬ쪹뗃컒맺놾쫐뎡폫맺췢놾쫐뎡룼뫃뗄뷓맬웰살ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ췪짆짏쫐릫쮾탅쾢엻슶훆뛈ꎬ놣횤웳튵뗄탅쾢춸쏷뛈ꆣ믺릹춶헟쿠뷏웰룶죋춶헟뛸퇔ퟔ좻폅쫆뻞듳ꎬ떫쫇뇈웰뿘막막뚫뮹쫇뒦폚죵쫆뗄뗘캻ꎬ튻킩?탨뗄쫐뎡탅쾢뿉쓜늻쫇쓇쎴죝틗뗃떽ꎬ헢훖쟩뿶뿉쓜퓬돉믺릹춶헟폫짏쫐릫쮾룟맜횮볤뗄샻틦뫍컊쳢ꎬ죧퓚뮪쇢맜쿟뿉햮뗄맽돌훐쯹랢짺뗄믺릹춶헟춨맽샻폃쫖훐뗄뿉햮막틽폕듳막뚫뫏쒱ꎬ닙ퟝ막볛쪵쿖쳗샻쟖햼ꆣ컒쏇횻폐쳡룟짏쫐릫쮾ퟔ짭뗄탅쾢춸쏷뛈ꎬ붫훮뛠탅쾢춨맽쫐뎡뒫뗝돶좥ꎬ닅쓜폐킧뗄뇜쏢헢훖쟩뿶뗄랢짺ꎬ늢쟒쳡룟쇋춶헟뛔헻룶놾쫐뎡뗄탅탄ꆣ 뗚쯄ꎬ붡좫믺릹춶헟췢늿볠맜믺훆ꆣ쫽뻝폫뺭퇩뇭쏷ꎬ믺릹춶헟퓚듙뷸뺭볃뗄랢햹훐뗄좷랢믓쇋훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ떫좫쟲뷰죚캣믺뗄뷌통튲퓚쳡탑컒쏇ꎬ맽럖럅ퟝ믺릹춶헟ꎬퟮ훕횻믡듸살ퟔ쪳뛱맻뗄뫳맻ꆣ믺릹춶헟뺡맜폐ퟅ닎폫릫쮾훎샭뗄뚯믺ꎬ떫뇏뺹뮹쫇틔믱샻캪ퟮ훕쒿뗄ꎬ폐잱퓚뗄뚯믺뿉쓜믡캪쇋믱샻뛸컾짼헻룶놾쫐뎡뗄컈뚨ꆢ훐킡춶헟뗄샻틦뗈ꎬ잰뛎웚볤뗄뿆쏡쒾튵럨뿱헇춣ꆢST췾듯쪮쯄솬퇴뻍쫇ퟮ뫃뗄샽횤ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇폐뇘튪퓚뷸튻늽쿻돽믺릹춶헟헏낭뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ붡좫믺릹춶헟뗄췢늿볠맜믺훆ꎬ쪹웤쓜릻룼뫃뗄랢믓웤닎폫릫쮾훎샭ꆢ컈뚨놾쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 뗚컥ꎬ췪짆믺릹춶헟샠탍ꎬ퓶볓쓜릻컈뚨놾쫐뎡뗄훐뎤웚믺릹춶헟쫽솿ꆣ늻춬샠탍뗄믺릹춶헟평폚쫜떽뷰살풴ꆢ뷰맦쒣뗈ퟔ짭틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ틲뛸뛔폚닎폫짏쫐릫쮾훎샭뗄탨쟳돌뛈룷늻쿠춬ꆣ뛔폚짧놣믹뷰헢샠믺릹춶헟뛸퇔ꎬ쯤좻튲틔펯샻캪쒿뗄ꎬ떫룟컈뚨ꆢ뗍럧쿕좴쫇웤춶뻶닟뗄튻룶훘튪틀뻝ꎬ룼폐뚯솦닎폫떽짏쫐릫쮾훎샭훐살ꎬ뛸헢뛔폚놾쫐뎡뗄컈뚨튲웰ퟅ훺췆웷뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇폐뇘튪췪짆늻춬샠탍뗄믺릹춶헟ꎬ퓶볓쓇킩틔훐뎤웚돖막캪춶떼쿲뗄믺릹춶헟ꎬ헢뛔폚컒맺놾쫐뎡뗄뎤풶랢햹컞틉뻟폐훘튪뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃ꆣ 뗚쇹ꎬ붡좫믺릹춶헟ퟔ짭뗄쿠맘훎샭뷡릹ꆣ컒쏇퓚볓잿쿠맘훆뛈붨짨뗄65
뗚쇹헂 퇐뺿뷡싛벰헾닟붨틩 춬쪱폐뇘튪췪짆믺릹춶헟ퟔ짭뗄쿠맘훎샭믺훆ꎬ쪹웤춶탐캪쓜릻룼폐탲ꎬ쓜릻내헕막뚫뗄샻틦폫쒿뗄쟚쏣ꆢ뫏맦뗘탐쫂ꎬ놣돖룟뛈춸쏷ꎬ쓜릻룼뫃뗘싄탐쫜췐틥컱ꎬ뛸늻믡샄폃막뚫춶욱좨벰웤쯻풴ꆣ듋췢ꎬ믺릹춶헟뮹뇘탫놣횤웤맜샭닣뫍튻냣릤ퟷ죋풱뻟폐뫏룱뗄튵벼쓜벰횰튵쯘퇸ꎬ늢펦떱붨솢웰쿠펦뗄웳튵쓚뿘훆뛈뫍벤샸믺훆ꎬ듙뷸짳짷춶뫍듓뿍뮧샻틦돶랢뗄횰튵첬뛈ꆣ 뗚웟ꎬ엠폽뻟폐솼뫃튵쯘퇸뫍횰튵뗀뗂뗄믺릹춶헟뺭샭죋ꆣ뺭샭죋뗄튵쯘퇸잿죵뫍횰튵뗀뗂룟뗍횱뷓뻶뚨쇋믺릹춶헟ퟔ짭뺭펪튵벨뗄뫃뮵ꎬ평폚퇲좺킧펦뗄듦퓚ꎬ훐킡춶헟뿉쓜믡쎤쒿룺쯦쓇킩폐뷏듳맦쒣폅쫆ꆢ튵탔튲룼잿뗄믺릹춶헟뗄춶탐캪ꎬ믺릹춶헟뺭샭죋뗄튻퇔튻탐뗈폐뿉쓜믡뛔놾쫐뎡뗄컈뚨닺짺뷏듳뗄펰쿬ꆣ캪맦뇜춶럧쿕ꎬ놣돖놾쫐뎡컈늽쿲잰랢햹ꎬ폐뇘튪뛔믺릹춶헟뺭샭죋뗄뗀뗂쯘퇸ꆢ튵쓜솦뗈뷸탐퇏룱뗄짳뫋ꆣ 66
뗚웟헂 퇐뺿뻖쿞벰햹췻 뗚웟헂 퇐뺿뻖쿞벰햹췻 뗚튻뷚 퇐뺿뻖쿞 춨맽ퟜ뷡ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔랢쿖놾컄듦퓚틔쿂뻖쿞탔탨튪볓틔룄뷸ꎺ 뗚튻ꎬ믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚횸뇪뗄뫢솿늻릻좷쟐ꆣ평폚믺릹춶헟뗄돖막뻶닟쪱뿌뚼퓚뇤뮯ꎬ틲뛸쿫춨맽쪹폃쒳튻횸뇪살뛔믺릹춶헟뗄돖막훜웚뷸탐뚨솿뫢솿뇈뷏쓑ꎬ퓚벼쫵짏튲좱랦뿉닙ퟷ탔ꆣ놾컄쫇춨맽쪹폃뮻쫖싊살릹붨믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚뗄쳦듺뫢솿횸뇪ꎬ룃횸뇪늢캴퓚컄훐뗄춳볆럖컶훐퇩횤쿠맘볙짨ꎬ횸뇪짨솢뗄뫏샭탔죔탨튪뷸탐ퟐ쾸짌좶ꆣ 뗚뛾ꎬ놾컄뗄퇐뺿퇹놾솿몭룇쇋뮦짮솽쫐뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ쟒놾컄잱퓚볙뚨헢킩릫쮾뛔폚믺릹춶헟뗄돖막뻶닟펰쿬돌뛈쫇튻훂뗄ꎬ떫헢킩짏쫐릫쮾뛔폚믺릹춶헟뗄컼틽돌뛈뛸퇔뿏뚨쫇듦퓚닮틬뗄ꎬ죧뒴튵냥샠짏쫐릫쮾짨솢쪱볤뇈뷏뛌ꎬ폫훷냥ꆢ훐킡냥샠뗄짏쫐릫쮾퓚맦쒣ꆢ춶럧쿕랽쏦듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳닮틬ꎬSTꆢPT샠뗄짏쫐릫쮾평폚웤ퟔ짭뗄쳘뗣ꎬ뛔폚믺릹춶헟돖막뗄컼틽돌뛈폫웤쯻샠탍뗄짏쫐릫쮾뛸퇔튲믡폐쯹닮틬ꆣ헫뛔헢튻쟩뿶ꎬ뿉틔춨맽볓죫탩쓢뇤솿ꎬ뛔룷훖샠탍뗄짏쫐릫쮾뷸탐쟸럖뛔듽ꎬ듓뛸놣횤춳볆뷡맻뗄뿉뾿탔ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ놾컄붫믺릹춶헟쫇ퟷ캪튻룶헻쳥살뷸탐뾴듽뗄ꎬ죏캪쯼쏇퓚뛔듽짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻헾닟뗄첬뛈쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ떫쫇늻춬샠탍뗄믺릹춶헟평폚쫜떽맦쒣ꆢ춶닟싔ꆢ뷰살풴뗈뛠랽쏦틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ틲뛸뛔폚쿖뷰막샻뗄첬뛈튲믡듦퓚튻킩늻튻훂ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뛔믺릹춶헟뷸탐뮮럖ꎬ뾼달늻춬샠탍믺릹춶헟뛔폚쿖뷰막샻헾닟뗄첬뛈뺿뺹죧뫎ꆣ 뗚쯄ꎬ놾컄뗄퇐뺿쟸볤뷏뛌ꆣ놾컄쪹폃뗄쫇2007-2009헢죽쓪ퟷ캪퇐뺿쟸볤ꎬ쯤좻쫽뻝뇈뷏탂ꎬ떫쫇쪱볤뿧뛈죔좻늻릻ꎬퟮ뫃뗄쫇쪹폃컥쓪믲컥쓪틔짏ퟷ캪퇐뺿쟸볤ꎬ헢퇹튲룼쓜릻퓶잿컄헂뷡싛뗄뿉뾿탔ꆣ 67
뗚웟헂 퇐뺿뻖쿞벰햹췻 뗚뛾뷚 퇐뺿햹췻 뷡뫏짏쫶듦퓚뗄훮뛠뻖쿞ꎬퟷ헟죏캪뷱뫳뮹뿉퓚틔쿂랽쏦뷸탐짮죫퇐뺿ꎺ 뗚튻ꎬ돖막훜웚횸뇪뗄짨솢ꆣ쿖뷗뛎퇐뺿믺릹춶헟뗄횸뇪뷏뛠뗄쫇돖막뇈샽ꆢ믺릹춶헟쫽쒿뗈ꎬ뛔돖막훜웚뗄퇐뺿뷏짙ꎬ쓑뛈뻍퓚폚늻첫죝틗폃뿆톧뗄쫖뛎살뇈뷏ힼ좷뗘뛔믺릹춶헟쒳튻웚볤뗄돖막훜웚뷸탐뫢솿ꆣ죧뫎쪹폃룼볓뷓뷼헦쪵뗄횸뇪살쳦듺뫢솿믺릹춶헟돖막훜웚붫쫇캴살퇐뺿뗄튻룶훘튪랽쏦ꆣ 뗚뛾ꎬ룼좫쏦뗘뾼싇뿉쓜펰쿬떽믺릹춶헟돖막뻶닟벰짏쫐릫쮾엉쿖헾닟뗄뿘훆뇤솿ꆣ놾컄쯹톡폃뗄뿘훆뇤솿룼뛠뗄횻쫇캧죆믺릹춶헟벰짏쫐릫쮾ퟔ짭닣쏦살뷸탐뗄ꎬ뛸웤쯻뗄튻킩펰쿬틲쯘ꎬ죧튻킩훆뛈탔풼쫸틲쯘ꆢ맺볒뫪맛뮷뺳ꆢ램싉맦뚨뗈뚼캴짮죫뗄뷸탐첽쳖ꎬ헢튲뿉틔ퟷ캪뷱뫳퇐뺿뗄튻룶랽쿲ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ뾼달늻춬샠탍믺릹춶헟뛔폚쿖뷰막샻헾닟뗄첬뛈ꆣ늻춬샠탍뗄믺릹춶헟평폚쫜떽뛠훖틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛔듽쿖뷰막샻뗄첬뛈늻뺡쿠춬ꎬ듓헢룶뷇뛈살뾼싇튲붫쫇캴살퇐뺿뗄튻룶늻듭뗄톡퓱ꆣ 68
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훂킻 쿨ꆢ췵ꎬ룐킻컒뗄춬쏅ꎺ믆쿾럒ꆢ뫺뻽ꆢ뚭폜쎷ꆢ헔킡뮢ꆢ쮹믛ꆢ톧쏺ꆢ헔솢뇲ꆢ뫺뻽퇠ꆢ뫮ꆢ키펱ꆢ헅퇒ꆢ샮쮫퓆ꆣ쿠뻛벴쫇풵럖ꎬ쿠탅죽쓪뗄쟩틪튻뚨믡뎤듦퓚컒쏇뗄탄샯ꎬ튲쾣췻쯻쏇퓚뷱뫳뗄죋짺훐튻슷ퟟ뫃ꆣ ퟮ뫳ꎬ컒튪쳘뇰룐킻컒뗄볒죋ꎬ쎻폐쯻쏇퓚놳뫳뗄쒬쒬횧돖뫍맄샸뻍쎻폐컒뗄뷱쳬ꎬ쓜릻펵폐쯻쏇쫇컒헢튻짺ퟮ듳뗄탒뢣ꆣ 쿞폚놾죋쮮욽폐쿞ꎬ싛컄훐짐듦폐늻ퟣ벰탨튪룄뷸뗄뗘랽ꎬ뮹탨랳쟫룷캻볒움캯폨틔엺움횸헽ꎬ킻킻ꆣ76
릥뛁쮶쪿톧캻웚볤랢뇭뗄뿆퇐돉맻쒿슼벰믱붱쟩뿶 릥뛁쮶쪿톧캻웚볤랢뇭뗄뿆퇐돉맻벰믱붱쟩뿶 싛컄샠ꎺ [1]헾뢮뮷뺳벨킧짳볆퇐뺿[C].퓆쓏쪡짳볆샭싛폫쪵컱첽쯷싛컄벯ꎬ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺쪱듺뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ2010ꎺ160-162. [2]늻춬샠탍믺릹춶헟뛔짏쫐릫쮾쿖뷰막샻헾닟펰쿬퇐뺿[J].믡볆쪦,2011(4)ꎺ13-14. 뿎쳢샠ꎺ [1] 훷돖퓆쓏쪡뷌폽쳼뿎쳢ꆶ믹폚퓆쓏뗡돘쮮컛좾훎샭뗄뮷뺳벨킧짳볆랽램퇐뺿ꆷ [2] 닎폫맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰뿎쳢ꆶ컒맺짏쫐릫쮾늢릺믮뚯훐뗄펯폠맜샭컊쳢퇐뺿ꆷ [3] 닎폫퓆쓏쪡믡볆톧믡뿎쳢ꆶ퓆쓏쪡웳튵쓚늿뿘훆맦랶쪵쪩컊쳢퇐뺿ꆷ 믱붱샠ꎺ 싛컄ꆶ헾뢮뮷뺳벨킧짳볆퇐뺿ꆷ믱퓆쓏쪡쓚짳킭믡움짳폅탣붱 77
