第10卷第2期上海财经大学学报Vol 10No 22008年4月JournalofShanghaiUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsApr 2008ᇏٳোݼ:F091 348 ໓ངѓ്:A ໓ᅣщݼ:1009 0150(2008)02 0063 08财政政策的凯恩斯效应与非凯恩斯效应李永友(νߪҍࣜն࿐ࣜ࠶აҍᆟܵ࿐ჽ,νߪЁҁ233041) ᅋ ေ:本文基于财政政策的经典文献,从凯恩斯总收支模型出发,通过不断放宽其假设条件对稳定性财政政策可能出现的凯恩斯效应a需求中性效应以及非凯恩斯效应进行了归纳,在此基础上对三种效应的相关研究文献进行了评述b研究认为,尽管稳定性财政政策宏观调控的长短期效应还存在很大分歧,但并不表明,财政政策不可以充当稳定经济的角色,相反,分歧只能说明稳定性财政政策有效性需要一定的条件b这一结论对特定条件下财政政策的制定及其可能效应的事前预测具有非常重要的意义b ܱՍ:凯恩斯效应;需求中性效应;非凯恩斯效应 ҍᆟᆟҦିڎቔູࣜ࠶໗ק֥Ⴕི۽ऎ,ሱऺضථޡܴླܵනམิԛᇀࣂ,ࣼ၂ᆰ൞ޡܴࣜ࠶࿐࣮֥ނྏ໙ีᆭ၂,҂ࣇೂՎ,္൞҂࿐ஊၩٳఆቋն֥໙ีᆭ၂bႮႿ҂࣮ࠎႿ֥ࡌഡభิބဢЧ࿊ᄴ֥ҵၳ,෮ၛܱႿҍᆟᆟҦט॥֥Ӊ؋௹ིႋᇀࣂ္҂൞٤ӈౢ༉bಖط,ᆃ၂໙ีႻᇀܱᇗေ,ၹູં֥ٳఆᆰࢤ႕ཙሢҍᆟᆟҦ֥ൌ,Ⴍఃؓ໗קྟᆟҦ۽ऎႵཋ֥ݓط,ᄝ߸ੱ০ੱໃൌགྷປಆၩၬഈ֥൧ӆ߄ᆭభ,ؿߨҍᆟᆟҦᄝޡܴט॥ᇏ֥ቔႨཁ֤Ⴍఃᇗေbᆃၩሢ,ฐ࿙ҍᆟᆟҦޡܴט॥֥۲ᇕॖିིႋၛࠣӁളหקིႋ֥ࣜ࠶ࠎԤބᇅ؇ߌ,ؓิۚݓหקൈ௹ҍᆟᆟҦޡܴט॥֥ႵིྟၐऎႵ٤ӈᇗေ֥ၩၬbႿՎ,Ч໓ՖԮऺضථ࿐ஊ֥ܴׄބٳ༅ٚمԛؿ,๙ݖ҂؎٢ॺఃࡌഡ่ࡱؓ҂࿐ᆀ֥࣮ࣉྛሸކ,ᄝՎࠎԤഈ,ؓ໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦႵིྟ֥҂࣮ࢲંࣉྛඍb၂a໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦ֥ऺضථིႋ ໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦ֥ऺضථིႋᇶေটሱႿޡܴࣜ࠶࿐Էದऺضථࠣఃሔෛᆀ֥܊ངbᄝ1936୍ԛϱ֥ऎႵ߃ൈսၩၬ֥ቔ ࣼြa০༏ބࠊл๙ં ᇏ,ऺضථ০Ⴈ࣡ሹ൬ᆦଆ૭ඍ၂۱֥ࣼြބݓ൬ೆэ߄ݖӱ,ᄝՎࠎԤഈ,ؓҍᆟᆟҦ֥໗קིݔࣉྛٳ༅,ิԛູЌӻݓ൬ೆ֥नޙ໗קᄹӉ,܄܋҆ॖ۴ऌದ֥҆іགྷটཌྷࠏטᆜ൬ᆦथҦ b҂ࣇೂՎ,Ԯऺضථ࿐ஊߎಪ,ູູЌӻࣜ࠶֥໗קᄎྛ,ᆟکႋჰႵ֥ޙყෘනམ,۴ऌࣜ࠶ሑঃൡൈᄎႨԅሳᆟҦbಖط,ऺضථิԛ০Ⴈԅሳ֥ཌྷࠏэ߄ט॥ࣜ࠶ᄎ൬۠ರ௹:2007 09 10ቔᆀࡥࢺ:ႥႶ(1970-),ଳ,νߪބཅದ,νߪҍࣜն࿐ҍᆟა܄܋ܵ࿐ჽڬ࢝൱,ଲࣘն࿐ંࣜ࠶࿐Ѱൖުb
64 ഈݚҍࣜն࿐࿐Б 2008୍ֻ2௹ྛᄝਆ۱ٚ૫ႄఏਔᆚၰb၂൞ԅሳҍᆟ֥ڵք,ਸ਼၂۱൞ሹ൬ᆦଆીႵॉ੮ҍᆟᆟҦაࠊл൧ӆ֥ܱ৳ྟbؓԅሳҍᆟᆟҦ൞ڎ߶۳ݓࣜ࠶ᄯӮڵք,Lerner(1943)ಪູ,ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ۿିႋھ൞؎ᆟҦݺߊ֥ᇶေބᇏྏѓሙ,طؓᆟҦ൞ڎ߶֝ᇁ۷؟ࠇ۷ഒ֥ᅏༀ҂ႋھ႕ཙᆟҦ֥࿊ᄴbൈႻิԛ,֥ၩනѩ҂ၩሢᅏༀીႵ႕ཙ,ఃൌᅏༀႵሧჷᇂི֥ႋ bࠎႿᆃᇕܴׄ,Lernerิԛਔ ۿିҍᆟ ֥නམbಖطဢቔູऺضථ֥ᇑൌሔෛᆀHansenಏّؓᆟکົӻӉ௹֥ყෘԅሳ,෮ၛิԛ ࡲूҍᆟ ֥නམ,ࠧಪູ୭৯ཨԢҍᆟԅሳಯಖႋФुቔ၂۱ႵႨ֥ᆟҦଢѓbࠎႿᆃᇕܴׄ,ิԛਔ ࠦඣᆟҦ (pump primingpolicy)ބ ҀӊྟҍᆟᆟҦ (compensatoryfiscalpolicy)bᆃਆᇕᆟҦაLe rner ۿିҍᆟ ᆟҦ҂֥൞,భᆀᇶေᆌؓࣜ࠶֮ൈ௹ط,۴ऌࣜ࠶ߌ,๙ݖᆃਆᇕᆟҦ֥ཌྷࠏ࿊ᄴࡼࣜ࠶ঘཟԉٳࣼြሑ bູਔҀKeynesሹ൬ᆦଆીႵॉ੮Ӂ൧ӆބࠊл൧ӆൈनޙ֥ಌཊ,Hicks(1937)ބHansen(1949)ԷࡹਔIS-LMଆbھଆ҂ࣇՖഅ൧ӆ֥࢘؇ٳ༅ਔݓ൬ೆ֥थק,طߎॉ੮֞ࠊл൧ӆ֥ቔႨbᆃဢ,֤ݓ൬ೆ֥नޙٳ༅ބनޙ০ੱ֥थקཌྷ৳༢,Ֆطٳ༅۷์࣍གྷൌb ՖԮሹ൬ᆦଆ֞IS-LMଆ,ਆᆀ֥܋ᆭԩᄝႿ,ҍᆟᆟҦؓࣜ࠶Ӂളऺضථིႋсྶ၇ঠႿӰඔࠏᇅ,طҍᆟᆟҦ֥Ⴕིӱ؇ࣼ౼थႿӰඔ֥֮ۚbᄝऺضථ࿐ஊुট,ႮႿӰඔႥჹ൞၂۱նႿ0֥ᆞඔ,෮ၛҍᆟᆟҦ֥ޡܴט॥ሹ൞Ⴕི֥bԮऺضථ࿐ஊ֥ٳ༅ٚمթᄝ֥ቋն໙ีᄝႿ,ࡌקࡎ۬൞࠻ק҂э֥bᄝऺضථ࿐ஊुট,ᆃ၂္ׄ൞҂མའ֥bၹ,ູ၂ٚ૫,ᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ௹,թᄝሢնਈ֥༽ᇂሧჷ,ᆃဢ૫ؓҍᆟᆟҦᄹࡆ֥Ⴕིླ,֒൙ದ൮༵ࣉྛඔਈטᆜ,ط٤ࡎ۬טᆜbၹູؓ֒൙ದটඪ,טᆜࡎ۬ऎႵࢠն֥ҒֆӮЧ(Mankiw,1985,Akerlof&Yellen,1985),ൈֆ۱֒൙ದࡎ۬טᆜؓӁླ֥႕ཙߎ߶֝ᇁࡎ֥۬Ѱᒮनޙ(Cooperetal ,1990)bؓႿӰඔࠏᇅ֥ቔႨ,ऺضථ࿐ஊಪູ,ᆃᇶေ൞ႮႿᅏༀವሧҍڶིႋ֥ჸܣ(Lerner,1948;Modigliani,1963;Tobin,1972 ),ൈ,ླؓ൬ೆэ߄֥ݖ؇ૹۋྟ္ЌᆣਔӰඔࠏᇅ֥Ⴕིྟ(Aschauer,1985)bਸ਼ຓ,ູਔࢆ֮০ੱིႋؓದ҆Ӂള֥ ࠪԛ (crowding out)ቔႨ,ऺضථ࿐ஊಪູ,ࠊлᆟҦ֥ൡ֒ކؓԉٳؿߨҍᆟᆟҦ֥໗קቔႨ٤ӈᇗေ(Blinder&Solow,1973)b ؓႿ໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦऺضථིႋ֥ࣜဒٳ༅ෙಖ໓ངޓ؟,ն҆ٳ൞ဒҍᆟᆟҦ֥Ӱඔིႋބࠪԛིႋb۬টඪ,ᆃུဒѩ҂ିᆰࢤᆣૼҍᆟᆟҦऺضථིႋ൞ڎթᄝ,ၹູᆃਆ۱ٚ૫ࣇࣇ൞ఃႵིྟ֥сေ่ࡱbᆇᆞၩၬഈ֥ဒႋھ൞ᄝ၂۱ཌྷؓࢠӉ֥ൈࡗଽбࢠႵ໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦ༯ࣜ࠶ᄎྛਫ਼ࣥ൞ڎթᄝཁᇷҵၳbChand(1984)۴ऌҍᆟᆟҦࠏᇅࡼૅݓҍᆟᆟҦൎٳູଽᅞ(҂Їও1932୍)ބᅞުਆ۱ൈ௹,ᄝՎࠎԤഈ,๙ݖ॥ᇅࠊлᆟҦބࣜ࠶ଽᄝԊࠌ֩ཌྷܱэਈު࣮ਆ۱ൈ௹ҍᆟᆟҦэਈؓӁԛᄹӉੱ֥႕ཙҵၳ,ࢲݔіૼ,ᅞުҍᆟᆟҦט॥ऎႵૼཁ֥ऺضථིႋbGali&Blanchard(2004)ဒਔ1980୍ᇀ2002୍11۱ૐݓࡅބ8۱٤ૐݓࡅࣜ࠶֥ᄎྛਫ਼ࣥބࢲܒྟҍᆟԅሳᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢,࣮іૼ,໗קބᄹӉކჿؓҍᆟᆟҦ֥ཋᇅննࢆ֮ਔ11۱ૐݓࡅҍᆟᆟҦაӁԛэ߄ᆭࡗ֥ཌྷܱӱ؇,ՖطࡗࢤᆣૼਔҍᆟᆟҦऺضථིႋ֥ᆞಒྟbؽa໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦ֥ླᇏྟིႋ ҍᆟᆟҦऺضථིႋ֥ٳ༅іૼ,໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦऺضථིႋ၇ঠႿҍڶིႋ֥թᄝྟބࠪԛིႋ఼֥؇ bᄝऺضථࠣఃሔෛᆀुট,ҍᆟᆟҦᅏༀವሧऎႵҍڶིႋ,҂ࣇೂ
2008୍ֻ2௹ ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ऺضථིႋა٤ऺضථིႋ 65Վ,ཡ่ൈ௹,ঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦ֥০ੱིႋ္൞ັެఃັ֥bഈඍܴׄᄥ֞ਔᇉၐb൮༵ؓᅏༀವሧ൞ڎऎႵҍڶིႋ,Barro(1974)ᄝࡁ֥ࠎԤഈิԛ,ᄝ၂༢ਙކ֥ࡌק༯,ࣂ฿֥ବඥᆀࡼ߶ሧЧ߄܄܋ᅏༀ֥ໃটᆦڱ,Ֆطᆟک֥ᅏༀඥ൬ูսᅞؓବඥᆀ҂Ӂളҍڶིႋbᆃࣼ൞ᇷ ֥R icardian BarroEquvalance bൌ࠽ഈ,ᆃ၂ଁีՖଖᇕӱ؇ഈॖၛुቔ൞ӻࣲ൬ೆࠇളଁᇛ௹ࡌඪ၂۱ሱಖ֥આܼࠠbၹູؓऎႵӻࣲ൬ೆࠇളଁᇛ௹ཨٮथҦ֥֒൙ದط,ཨٮᆺაః၂ള֥ҍڶႵ,ܱᆃဢ,ᄝཋളଁ௹ࢸa၂ՑሹڱඥၛࠣປૅሧЧ൧ӆ֩၂༢ਙ֥۬ࡌק༯,֒൙ದࡼ߶Ֆః၂ള֥࢘؇ॉ੮ࣂ฿ᆟک֥ᅏༀඥ൬ูսؓሱ࠭ҍڶ֥႕ཙ,ೂݔࡌקᆟکсྶડቀყෘჿඏ,ପહ֒൙ದࣼ߶ၩ്֞ࣂ฿֥ᅏಊၩሢૼ฿ඥ൬֥֩ਈᄹࡆ,෮ၛᆟک֥ᅏༀඥ൬ูսѩીႵ႕ཙః၂ള֥ҍڶ,ᅏༀඥ൬ูսӁള֥ື၂႕ཙᆺ൞ڿэਔݓԥྐྵ֥ࢲܒbᆃࣼ൞ඪ,ᄝЌӻᆟک܄܋ᆦԛ࠻ק֥౦ঃ༯,ࠧᄝ؋௹,ҍᆟᆟҦؓሹӁԛ္҂߶Ӂള႕ཙ ,ࠧҍᆟᆟҦؓሹӁԛіགྷԛླᇏྟིႋb ഈඍٳ༅іૼ,҂൳ੀྟჿඏ֥ྟ֒൙ದ,ఃቋն߄ሱ࠭ࠣఃުսᇔദིႨ֥ྛູ֤ҍᆟᆟҦປಆാਲb֒ಖ,ೂݔૌ٢ᆃུࡌקᇏ֥ޅ၂۱,ପહӻࣲ൬ೆ/ളଁᇛ௹ࡌඪࠇᆀ Ricardio BarroEquivalence ܴׄࣼ߶ؿളэ߄bൌ࠽ഈ, Ricardio BarroEquiva lence ଁีؓః֥۬ࡌק٤ӈգbႵཋളଁ௹ࢸࠇᆀ҂թᄝս࠽ࡗ֥০ᇶၬၩሢҍᆟԅሳ֥ವሧٚൔؓሹླ߶Ӂള႕ཙ,ၹູڿэਔଖ၂սದ֥ყ௹൬ೆ(Blanchard&Perotti,1999)bဢ,ೂݔթᄝੀྟჿඏࠇᆀ۱ದಌكჹ߶ཤഈඍଁี֥Ⴕིྟbᆃུᄝඪૼ,ೂݔ҂թᄝ Ricardian BarroEquvalance ࡌקބཟႷഈٚౠོ֥܂۳౷ཌ߶ҍᆟᆟҦӁള؋௹֥ঔᅦࠇࣅ෪ིႋbಖطᆞೂBarro(1989)෮ᆷԛ֥: Ֆંഈي֥۬Ricardoනམ൞٤ӈಸၞ,֥Ricardo֥ܴׄؓૌܙҍᆟᆟҦ໗קིႋิ܂ਔ၂۱٤ӈႵႨ֥ॿࡏ,ᆞၹູೂՎ,ؓҍᆟᆟҦ֥ླᇏྟིႋࣉྛൌᆣဒࣼหљᇗေ b Feldstein(1982)๙ݖܙ࠹၂۱ЇݣԚҍڶaໃটഠ߶Ќᅰ൬ၭၛࠣ҂ҍᆟ۽ऎэਈ֥ཨٮݦඔؿགྷ,ࣜဒᆣऌѩ҂ᆦӻҍᆟᆟҦ֥ླᇏྟིႋbႮႿః࣮թᄝྸ؟࠹ਈٚ૫֥໙,ี෮ၛሱఃᆭ,ުSeater&Mariano(1985)ᄝൡ֒ྩڿჰܙ࠹ٚӱ֥ࠎԤഈ,๙ݖဒэਈ֥ଽളྟᇗگਔ֥࣮,֤ԛ,ᄝࢳथਔჰႵ֥࠹ਈ໙ีު,ࣜဒᆣऌᆦӻਔҍᆟᆟҦླᇏྟ֥թᄝྟބཁᇷྟbKormendi(1983)ؓھଁี֥ဒཌྷරႿFeldstein,҂֥൞,ᄝࢳथਔэਈ֥ଽളྟᆭ,ުܙ࠹ਔ၂۱ঔᅚ֥ཨٮݦඔ,ః࣮ࢲંູھଁีิ܂ਔቋ఼ቋᆰࢤ֥ᆣऌ(Feldstein&Elmendorf,1990)bطBarro(1989)ؓၛਙࣜ࠶ࣉྛࣜဒٳ༅ൈ္ؿགྷਔ၂ུھଁีअ҆Ⴕིྟ֥ࡗࢤᆣऌbMasson,Bayoumi&Hossein(1995)Ⴈ૫ϰඔऌؓ۽ြ߄ݓࡅބؿᅚᇏݓࡅ֥ھଁีࣉྛਔ۷ᆰࢤ֥࠹ਈဒbބBarro၂ဢ,ૌᄝ࣮ᇏဢؿགྷ܄܋ԥྐྵؓದ҆ԥྐྵ֥अู҆սb҂ࣇೂՎ,ૌߎᆣൌ,܄܋ԥྐྵؓದ҆ԥྐྵู֥սӱ؇၇ঠႿᆟکҍᆟᆟҦטᆜ֥ವሧٚൔbૌಪູ,ཬႿ1֥ࢠูۚսੱၩሢҍᆟծീؓݓԥྐྵॖିႵཁᇷ֥႕ཙ,Ⴍః֒ᆃᇕҍᆟծീ൞টሱႿҍᆟᆦԛ֥э߄ൈbᆃ၂ࢲં֤֞ਔGiavazzi,Jappelli&Pagano(2000)ࣜဒ࣮֥ᆦӻbૌ֥࣮іૼ,֒ҍᆟԊࠌࢠնѩӻࣲൈ,টሱႿದ֥҆٤ऺضථّႋॖିྟࣼࢠն,ᄝᆞӈൈ௹,ऺضථ֥Ӱඔି֤֞ࣜဒඔऌ֥ޓݺᆦӻbEvans(1993)๙ݖܒࡹ၂۱࡙ಸ Ricar dio BarroEquivalence ބऺضථܴ֥ׄଆ,ؓটሱႿ19۱OECDݓࡅ֥ࣜဒඔऌࣉྛਔٳ༅,ࢲݔіૼ,ھଁี҂ି֤֞ඔऌ֥ᆦӻbAfonso(2001)Ⴈਔૐݓࡅ֥૫ϰඔऌܙ࠹
66 ഈݚҍࣜն࿐࿐Б 2008୍ֻ2௹ਔঘཨٮٚӱ,ఃᇏᄝཨٮݦඔᇏเࡆਔႮᆟکᅏༀGDPб২෮קၬ֥ҍڶэਈbܙ࠹ࢲݔіૼ,ૐ15ݓ֥ඔऌіૼᅏༀᇏྟࡌඪ҂թᄝb҂ݖႵ౿֥൞,Afonsoൈ္ؿགྷ,ᆟکᅏༀ֥ҍڶིႋᄝᇗᅏݓࡅбఃݓࡅေbᆃ۱ؿགྷᆣൌਔھଁี֥अ҆թᄝྟbࠎႿൈࡗਙ࠹ਈٳ༅֥ః္࣮֤ԛਔაഈඍࠫެ၂ᇁ֥ࢲંbCotis֩ದ(1997)ܙ࠹ਔمݓ֥ཨٮݦඔ,ଢ֥ᄝႿࢣൕ܄܋ᅏༀބದԥྐྵࡗ֥܋ᄎܱ༢bૌ֥࣮ཁൕ,ཟૐ֥ݖ؈ᄹࡆਔ০ੱؓყෘԅሳ֥ૹۋྟބंؓ۷ۚඥ൬֥ॣऔbCuaresma&Reits chuler(2004)ಪ,ູႮႿ1992୍໗קކჿ֥ႄࣉ,ᇝ֒൙ದіགྷԛ۷ཁᇷ֥ᇏྟཨٮหᆘ,ཁᇷӱ؇ᄝ҂ݓࡅթᄝࢠնҵၳbഈඍٳ༅іૼ,ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ླᇏྟིႋѩીႵ֤֞ࣜဒᆣऌ֥၂ᇁᆦӻ,ᆞೂSeater(1993)෮, ંഈ,ૌॖၛड़קҍᆟᆟҦླᇏྟ൞҂ᆇൌ֥,֩ࡎၐ൞၂۱ݺ֥࣍ර,࣐ܵીႵ֤֞ቀܔ֥ࣜဒᆦӻb ࠪԛིႋ൞ҍᆟᆟҦླᇏྟིႋٳ༅֥ਸ਼၂۱ᇗေٚ૫bൌ࠽ഈ,ᆃ෮ඪ֥ࠪԛིႋᇶေ൞ᆷҍᆟᆟҦ๙ݖ০ੱބ߸ੱࠏᇅؓದ҆ླӁള֥ປಆࠪԛbࣼ০ੱࠏᇅط,Friedman(1968)ಪ,ູೂݔીႵࠊлᆟҦ֥Ⴕིކ,ঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦࡼ֝ᇁЧݓ০ੱ֥ഈശ,طᄝ၂۱٤ԥྐྵሧӁᅝದሧӁࢠ֥ۚݓࡅ,০ੱഈശࡼ߶֝ᇁದླ֥༯ࢆ ,҂ݖᆃᇕ༯ࢆ֥ӱ؇ປಆ౼थႿഠ߶ॖվሧࣁ֥ԉღӱ؇ބंؓ০ੱ֥ૹۋӱ؇bഈඍٳ༅ࣇࣇൡႨႿٿоࣜ࠶,ၹູᄝ၂۱ཬष٢ࣜ࠶ᇏ,০ੱ൞ൗࢸ০ੱb҂ݖᆃѩ҂ၩሢ,ҍᆟᆟҦ҂߶іགྷԛླᇏྟིႋ,ၹູᆃൈປಆڜ֥߸ੱࠏᇅࡼ߶ҍᆟᆟҦэ֤ປಆིbElmendorf&Mankiw(1998)၇ऌԮ֥ऺضථٚم,০Ⴈѓሙ֥IS LMଆ,ٳ༅ਔष٢ࣜ࠶༯ҍᆟᆟҦིႋӁള֥ݖӱbಪ,ູᄝ၂۱ປಆष٢֥ሱႮ߸ੱࠏᇅ༯,ҍᆟᆟҦ߶ၹၮԛིႋطэ֤ཌྷིؓb҂ࣇೂՎ,HassanMolana&CatiaMontagna(1999)֥ٳ༅ᄵࣉ၂҄іૼ,ؓݓଽದ҆թᄝࢠۚຓлሧӁٺح֥ࣜ࠶ط,ঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦ߶๙ݖ߸ੱശᆴؓದ҆Ӂളࢠ఼֥ҍڶིႋ,ᄯӮದ҆ҍڶ֥ࢠն෪ඣ,ҍڶ༯ࢆ֥၂۱ᆰࢤުݔࣼ൞ࢆ֮ਔݓଽ֥ླb෮ၛ,ᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯,ҍᆟᆟҦ߶๙ݖຓ߸ሧӁ֥ҍڶིႋؓݓଽದ҆ླӁളປಆࠪԛb ಖط,ഈඍٳ༅֥ಌཊᄝႿીႵॉ੮ٿоބष٢ࣜ࠶༯ҍᆟᆟҦࡎི۬ႋ֥ҵၳbᄝٿоࣜ࠶ุᇏ,ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ࡎི۬ႋ߶๙ݖ০ੱࠏᇅ఼߄ҍᆟᆟҦؓದ҆Ӂള֥ࠪԛིႋ,ᆃᇕ౦ঃࠧᄝթᄝၬᅔྟ֥ࣜ࠶ᇏ္߶ԛགྷbᄝष٢֥ሱႮ߸ੱࣜ࠶ᇏ,ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ࡎི۬ႋ҂ॖି๙ݖ০ੱࠏᇅ႕ཙҍᆟᆟҦؓݓଽሹླ֥႕ཙ,ၹູሧЧ֥ሱႮੀЧݓ֥০ੱᇔԩႿൗࢸ০ੱ֥ඣഈ(Capet,2004)bਸ਼ຓ,ഈඍࠪԛིႋࣇࣇ֥ࣼঔᅦྟᆦԛᆟҦط,҂ࣇೂՎ,ٳ༅ࠎЧഈ൞ᆌؓᅏༀವሧᆦӪ֥ঔᅦྟᆟҦ,෮ၛᆃᇕٳ༅ીႵٳঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦ҂ವሧٚൔᆭࡗࠪԛིႋ֥љbBarro(1990)࣮ਔඥ൬ವሧᆦӪ֥ঔᅦྟᆟҦؓದ҆Ӂള֥ࠪԛིႋ,ᆣૼਔۚඥ൬๙ݖࢆ֮ದሧ֥ඥު߭БطؓఃሧӁളࠪԛbൈ܄܋ሧ֥ഈശ,หљ൞܄܋ࠎԤྟሧᆦԛ֥ഈശ,๙ݖิۚದሧ֥ш࠽ӁԛؓದሧӁളࠪࣉིႋ,ᆃဢ,ҍᆟᆟҦؓದ҆ሧ֥ࠪԛӱ؇ࣼປಆ౼थႿഈඍਆᇕིႋ఼֥bAhmed&Miller(2000)࣮ਔঔᅦྟᆟҦਆᇕವሧٚൔؓದ҆ࠪԛӱ؇֥ҵၳ,ѩ๙ݖ০Ⴈ૫ϰඔऌؓંٳ༅ࣉྛਔဒ,֤ԛঔᅦྟᆟҦ֥ࠪԛӱ؇҂ࣇაವሧٚൔႵ,ܱطაঔᅦᆟҦ֥ࢲܒႵܱbൌ࠽ഈ,ބҍڶིႋაᇏྟཨٮ֥ဒ၂ဢ,ૌѩ҂ିՖགྷႵ֥໓ངᇏᅳ֞ປಆࠪԛིႋ֥ࣜဒᆣऌb
2008୍ֻ2௹ ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ऺضථིႋა٤ऺضථིႋ 67a໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦ֥٤ऺضථིႋ ᆞೂభඍ෮,Ԯ֥ҍᆟᆟҦིႋٳ༅ٚم၂ᆰࡌקࡎ۬ᄝҍᆟᆟҦ֥טᆜݖӱᇏЌӻ҂э(Chand,1984)b൙ൌഈ,ᆃᇕࡌק൞ڎӮ৫၇ঠႿၛ༯ਆ۱่ࡱ:၂൞ࣜ࠶сྶԩႿ٤ԉٳࣼြሑ;ؽ൞ࣜ࠶֒൙ದ֥ყ௹൞҂ປಆྟ֥bࣼభᆀط,Lucas(1973)ބFeldstein(1982)ಪ,ູ֒ࣜ࠶ࢤ࣍ԉٳࣼြሑൈ,ೂݔҍᆟᆟҦ҂ିิۚమᄝӁԛඣ,ପહҍᆟᆟҦࡼ߶൳܂۳૫ᇅჿؓൌ࠽ӁԛીႵ႕ཙ,ঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦ֥ື၂ࢲݔࣼ൞ࣜ࠶ԛགྷࡎ۬ඣ֥௴ђഈശ,ᆃൈҍᆟᆟҦࣼॖିၹࢠ֥ۚࡎ۬Фࠪԛb҂ࣇೂՎ,ؓҍᆟᆟҦ֥Ӊ௹၇ঠߎ߶ᄯӮࣜ࠶֥ಆ૫ᇌᅮ,ఃჰၹᄝႿ,๙ᅮ౷ਔሧᆀ֥ሧथҦ,ᄯӮሧ҂ቀbൈ,ྟყ௹࿐ஊಪ,ູႮႿഅࡎ֥۬ഈശᄯӮਔস܂۳ᆀཌྷؓܓઙ৯֥༯ࢆ,ᆃဢ,ྟყ௹ࣼ߶সᆀӻ࿃ֹေิۚၬ۽ሧބ۷֥ۚാြڄགശඣ,ၬ۽ሧ֥ӻ࿃ഈശ၂ٚ૫ളӁӮЧഈശ,֝ᇁളӁᆀሧრຬ༯ࢆ,ਸ਼၂ٚ૫๙ݖӁ֥ӮЧԮ־֞അ൧ӆ,ᄯӮഅࡎ֥۬ӻ࿃ശbਆٚ૫֥܋ቔႨ,֤ࣜ࠶ᄝ٤ԉٳࣼြᇏԛགྷӻ࿃๙ᅮbᆃᇕ౦ঃᆞ൞༆ٚࣜ࠶ᄝࣜݖਔ30୍ӻ࿃ᄹӉᆭުႿ20ൗࡀ70୍սԛགྷ௴ђᇌᅮ֥ᇗေჰၹbᆃᇕٳ༅іૼ,ᄝ܂۳ჿඏ֥ࣜ࠶ᇏ,ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ླܵ҂ࣇི,طߎॖି֝ᇁࣜ࠶۷ն֥ѯ,ࠧ෮໌֥ҍᆟᆟҦ٤ऺضථིႋb ࣼުᆀط,ಌكྟყ௹֥ັܴࠎԤ၂ᆰ൞ऺضථҍᆟᆟҦ൳֞۾ࠌބᇉၐ֥ჰၹbྟყ௹࿐ஊಪ,ູࠧ؋௹ଽҍᆟᆟҦॖၛ๙ݖၩຓٚൔؓݓӁԛӁള႕ཙ,Ӊ௹ଽ္߶ၹყ௹֥ᇯ҄ྟطэི֤bᄝ၂۱ԉٳࣼြ֥ࣜ࠶ᇏ,ঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦ؋௹ଽॖၛ๙ݖ๙ᅮაാြ֥ࢌูܱ༢ؓӁԛӁള႕ཙ,Ӊ௹ଽ٣ੰ௴ථ౷ཌ൞Լᆰ,֥ࠧ๙ᅮაࣼြᆭࡗѩ҂թᄝูսܱ༢,္ࠧঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦؓӁԛᆺႵၬིႋطൌ࠽ིႋ(Lucas, 1977)bᆇൌᇛ௹࿐ஊ۷ࣉ၂҄ಪ,ູ൧ӆ൞ӻ࿃ԛౢ,֥ྟყ௹ࠧؓҍᆟᆟҦ֥ၩຓԊࠌ္߶ᆃᇕᆟҦ؋௹ଽэ֤,ིཌྷ,ّᆟҦ֥҂၂ᇁᄝྟყ௹่ࡱ༯,ᆺ߶֝ᇁࣜ࠶ѯэ֤۷ࡆ҂ܿᄵ(Kydland&Prescott,1977)bྟყ௹ؓҍᆟᆟҦིႋ֥႕ཙ҂ࣇุགྷᄝࡎ۬ඣყ௹ؓದ҆ྛູ֥႕ཙ,ط୍࣍ট֥࣮іૼ,ᆃ္߶ุགྷᄝໃট൬ೆყ௹ؓದ҆ྛູथҦ֥႕ཙഈb ൬ೆყ௹ؓದ҆ྛູ႕ཙ,ࣉط႕ཙ໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦིႋ֥࣮ᇶေఏჷႿ20ൗࡀଌGiavazzi&Pagano(1990)֥۽ቔbਆ໊࿐ᆀᄝؓօચ1982୍ބιغধ1987~1989୍֥ҍᆟᆟҦིႋࣉྛࣜဒٳ༅ൈؿགྷ,ᇁ৯Ⴟ໗קଢѓ֥ঔᅦྟҍᆟᆟҦّط֝ᇁࣜ࠶ࣅ෪,ᆃ၂གྷའ֤Ԯ٤ڵҍᆟӰඔ֥ࡌקᄥ֞ਔᇉၐbູਔؓᆃᇕགྷའ۳ԛކ֥ࢳ,ྸ؟࿐ᆀࣉྛਔӇ൫bఃᇏቋऎսіྟ֥۽ቔ൞ႮBlanchard(1990)aBertola&Drazen(1993)aSutherland(1997)ބPerotti(1999)෮ቓԛ֥ bBlanchard(1990)Ֆඥ൬აࣜ࠶౷֥࢘؇ิԛ,ᆃᇕ٤ऺضථིႋԛགྷ֥ჰၹᄝႿ,ඥੱթᄝ၂۱ਢࢸඣ,ᆃࣼၩሢ,ᆟک֥ᅏༀ္Ⴕ၂۱ਢࢸඣ,֒གྷൌ֥ࠇყ௹֥ඥੱӑݖਢࢸඣൈ,ࣼၩሢӁԛ֥༯ࢆbᆃဢ,ᄝᆟکყෘჿඏ༯,ೂݔᆟک֥ᅏༀඣࢤ࣍ਢࢸඣൈ,ದ҆ࣼ߶ყ௹֞ᆟکࡼ߶Ґ౼ծീטᆜҍᆟᆟҦ,Ֆطх૧ࣜ࠶ᄝໃটཊೆ֥ۚ౷ඥ൬ཊፗbBertola&Drazen(1993)ᄵՖਸ਼၂۱࢘؇ؓᆃᇕ٤ऺضථིႋࣉྛਔࢳ,ૌ൮༵ࡌקᆟک֥ᆦԛྛູіགྷԛջᆞཟ၍֥ෛࠏႳሼݖӱ,ᆃဢ,ູਔડቀყෘჿඏ่ࡱ,ᆟکॖି௧Ⴟᅏༀ֥৯ᄝଖ۱ൈީҐ౼ࢆ֮ᆦԛ֥ծീbࠧ֒ᆟکᆦԛඣࢤ࣍ࠇղ֞৯֥ਢࢸඣൈ,ঔᅦྟ܄܋ᆦԛ֥ᄹࡆ
68 ഈݚҍࣜն࿐࿐Б 2008୍ֻ2௹๙ӈ߶ࢆ֮ದཨٮ,ᆃ൞ၹູऎႵཋ௹ࢸ֥֒൙ದ߶ᆞಒყ௹֞,ᆟکؓ܄܋ᆦԛࣉྛཌྷࠏཤࡨ൞Ⴕॖି,֥ѩ҂၂ק߶ؿളbೂݔ܄܋ᆦԛၘࣜղ֞ਔਢࢸඣ,ᆟکѩીႵཤࡨ܄܋ᆦԛ,ᆃൈದ֥҆ཨٮࣼ߶ཌྷࠏֹԛགྷ༯ࢆ,ჰၹᄝႿ֒൙ದྩᆞਔૌؓሱ࠭ӻࣲ൬ೆ֥ყ௹bყ௹ࢲܒ֥э߄֤ଆ֥٤ཌྟหᆘіགྷਔԛটbᄝBertola&Drazen֥ࠎԤഈ,Sutherland(1997)ؓૌ֥ଆࣉྛਔঔᅚ,ঔᅚު֥ଆაჰ༵֥ଆऎႵཌྷර֥ࢲܒหᆘ,෮֤ԛ֥ࢲંಏაჰ༵֥ଆႵޓն֥љbSutherlandଆ֥ࢲંܱ၇ঠႿႵཋ௹ࢸ֒൙ದࡌקbູਔٳ༅֥ླေ,ଆࡌקᄝ܄܋ᆦԛղ֞ఃਢࢸᆴڸ࣍ൈ,ᆟکၛࢠնඥ൬ᄹࡆ֥ྙൔൌീ෮໌֥ཋᇅྟҍᆟᆟҦbᆃၩሢ,֒ᅏༀඣᄀࢤ࣍Ⴟҍᆟڄག֥ਢࢸඣ,ᆟکൌീҍᆟ໗ק࠹߃֥ॖିྟࣼᄀնb֒ҍᆟԩႿᆃဢ၂ᇕሑঃ֥ൈ,ީҍᆟԅሳ֥ޅᄹࡆࡼ߶ದཨٮ༯ࢆbၹູ֒൙ದౢԣֹၩ്,֞ᄝૌ֥Ⴕളᆭ,୍ᆟکնږ؇֥ᄹࡆඥ൬҂ॖх૧,ໃট൬ೆ֥ാࡼննӑݖ֒భ֥ᆟکሇ၍b აഈඍ໊࿐ᆀ֥ٳ༅ٚمປಆ҂,Perotti(1999)൮༵ࡌק֒൙ದ҂൞ປಆᇉ֥,၂҆ٳऎႵྟყ௹,طਸ਼၂҆ٳေહ൳ੀྟჿඏ,ေહ൞҂ປಆྟ֥bᆃᇕ٤ᇉࡌק֤ު၂ো֒൙ದ֥ཨٮݦඔіགྷູປಆ֥ऺضථหᆘbൈ,ᆃᇕࡌק္ႅݣሢ,ᆟکᆦԛ֥ᄹࡆࡼՏࠗඥభ൬ೆ,طඥ൬ࡼၝᇅඥభ൬ೆ֥ഈശbᆭ෮ၛೂՎ,ቔᆀಪູᇶေ൞ႮႿඥ൬ᄹࡆၛ၂ᇕ٤ཌྟ֥ٚൔؓࣜ࠶ࠃӁള౷bطᆃᇕ౦ঃႻ൞ၹູᆟکીିҐ౼ඥ൬߁ᆟҦ,Ֆط֝ᇁऎႵྟყ௹֥֒൙ದყ௹֞ໃটඥ൬ࡼбࣂ฿֥ඥ൬ေն֤؟bط֒ऎႵྟყ௹ѩ҂൳ੀྟჿඏ֥֒൙ದؓໃটॖᆦ൬ೆ֥ყ௹ၹᆟکᆦԛࠇඥ൬֥ၩຓэ߄ؿളڿэൈ,ҍᆟᆟҦ֥٤ऺضථིႋࣼ߶Ӂളbൈ,ቔᆀߎᆷԛ,܄܋ᆦԛ֥ၩຓᄹࡆؓྟ֒൙ದ֥ཨٮӁളᆞཟིႋߎ൞ڵཟིႋ၇ঠႿӁԛᄹӉ఼֥؇,ᆃᇕ఼؇ַཨਔႅݣ֥ໃটඥ൬ᄹࡆؓӁԛᄯӮ֥౷ቔႨbඹaࠫׄఓൕ ๙ݖؓཌྷܱ໓ང֥ඍ,ૌॖၛ֤֞ၛ༯ࠫׄఓൕ:၂൞࣐ܵࠎႿ҂ࡌקބဢЧ֥࣮ࢲંໃିࣼҍᆟᆟҦ֥Ӊ؋௹ིႋղӮ၂ᇁ,Ⴕ၂ׄ൞٤ӈౢԣ,֥ࠧ҂࣮ᆭࡗٳఆ֥۴ЧჰၹᄝႿؓҍᆟᆟҦӰඔ֥ಪ്թᄝҵၳbԮऺضථ࿐ஊಪ,ູ࣐ܵࠪԛིႋބൈᇌၹ߶ؓӰඔ֥ܿଆӁള႕ཙ,ӰඔႥჹ൞၂۱ᆞඔbླᇏྟིႋ֥ࢲંෙಖ఼טᇔളཨٮथҦބປಆࠪԛིႋ߶֝ᇁӰඔູ0,ᇔߎ൞ಪູӰඔ൞၂۱٤ڵඔbط٤ऺضථིႋಏՖ۴ЧഈؓഈඍӰඔ֥Ԯಪ്ิԛਔ็ᅞ,ಪູყ௹֥ࢲܒྟטᆜ֤ҍᆟӰඔᄝหקߌᇏႵॖିູ၂۱ڵඔbؽ൞໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦႵིྟ࣮֥۲ᇕԊྟࢲંѩ҂іૼҍᆟᆟҦ҂ିԉ֒໗קࣜ࠶֥࢘,ཌྷ,ّ҂࣮ࢲં෮ջট֥ఓൕ൞,໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦႵིྟࠇᆀඪЌӻ໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦ֥ऺضථིႋླေ၂ק่֥ࡱbᆃ่ུࡱᇶေЇও,ཡ่ࣜ࠶ᇏሧჷ֥ԉღӱ؇aದ҆ླؓ০ੱ֥ૹۋӱ؇aದ҆ყ௹֥໗קӱ؇a҂ᆟҦᆭࡗ֥ླྀטކӱ؇ၛࠣҍᆟԅሳބᅏༀ֥ڄགඣb൞ႮႿ০ੱ߸ੱᇅ؇֤ࠊлᆟҦࡎ۬ބඔਈט॥֥Ⴕིྟ٤ӈႵཋ,෮ၛሱ20ൗࡀ90୍սఏ,ݓҍᆟᆟҦࣼᇯ҄ሼ֞ਔޡܴט॥֥భခbᄝᆃ၂ݖӱᇏ,ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ཌྷࠏטᆜ൞ڎ൳֞ਔყ௹֥ט॥ིݔ,ૌ҂ࣇေܱᇿൎ֥ࣜဒ࢝,۷ႋھॉҳෛሢ൧ӆࠏᇅ֥ᇯ҄ປbҍᆟᆟҦቔႨ֥ࣜ࠶ߌބᇅ؇ࢲܒᄝుుֹؿളሢᄸဢ֥э߄,طՖંഈҩקԛᆃུэ߄ؓҍᆟᆟҦႵིྟ֥႕ཙӱ؇ބٚཟၐؓЌᆣໃটҍᆟᆟҦט॥֥ႵིྟऎႵ٤ӈᇗေ֥ၩၬb
2008୍ֻ2௹ ҍᆟᆟҦ֥ऺضථིႋა٤ऺضථིႋ 69ᇿ: ऺضථಪູ,նྏקੰބࣚപ֤ഠ߶ԩႿమᄝӁԛᄎྛᆺ൞ྍܞׅࡌഡ֥၂۱ห২,ሹ൬ᆦଆ֥ٳ༅ࢲંѩ҂ᄝႿᆷԛྍܞׅ࿐ஊંٳ༅֥આࠠհ༂,ط൞ඪૼྍܞׅଆπݣ֥ࡌഡ่ࡱՖটࣼીႵᄝགྷൌᇏ֤֞ડቀ,ఃުݔࣼ൞,၇ऌྍܞׅ࿐ஊ֥නམمࢳथགྷൌᇏ֥ࣜ࠶໙ี,ᆃဢླေᇏန॥ᇅࠏܒ֥୭৯,ೂݔᇏန॥ᇅࠏܒିӮۿֹࡼሹӁԛࣉ֞ཌྷ֒Ⴟᄝགྷൌᇏॖିղ֥֞ԉٳࣼြඣ,ಪູ,Ֆᆃ၂ׄष,ܞׅ࿐ஊ֥ંಯಖ൞ᆞಒ֥b ؓLerner ֥ۿିҍᆟ නམ֥བྷ༥ॉҳॖၛҕLerner(1943,1961)bؓᅏༀڵքᆚં֥ׅࣜሹࢲॖၛҕFerguson(1964)aTobin(1965)b Hansen(1941)ิԛෙಖ ࠦඣᆟҦ ބ ҀӊྟҍᆟᆟҦ ֥ଢ֥൞ࣜ࠶ԩႿమᄝӁԛඣሑ,ਆᆀթᄝޓն֥љ,భᆀ൞ᆟک۴ऌ ࠦඣ ჰ,ᄝ҂่֥ࡱ༯,๙ݖཟࣜ࠶ᇿೆ၂קඔਈ֥܄܋ᆦԛࣜ࠶߫گ֞၇ौሱദ֥ି৯ղ֞၂ᇕሧჷԉٳ০Ⴈሑbުᆀᆺ൞۴ऌದ҆ླ֥༯ࢆ,০ႨҍᆟᆦԛࣉྛҀӊ,ᇀႿᆃᇕҀӊିڎ൞ࣜ࠶گ්ࠇ߫گ֞ԉٳࣼြሑѩ҂൞໙ี֥ܱbൌ࠽ഈ,HansenิԛᆃਆᇕᆟҦ,ࣼӻ࿃֥ൈࡗط,భᆀᆺ൞၂ᇕਢൈྟ֥ᆟҦ,၇ौ֥൞ࣜ࠶ᇏ ֥Ӱඔ ࠏᇅ,ުᆀᄝӻ࿃ൈࡗഈીႵ၂۱ૼಒ֥ࢸק,ѩ҂൞၇ौ Ӱඔ ࠏᇅb ҕ,aregovernmentbondsnetwealth?JournalofPoliticalEconomy,,1974b ൌ࠽ഈ,ᆃਆᇕིႋ൞๙ݖࢆ֮ҍᆟӰඔ႕ཙ໗קྟҍᆟᆟҦႵིྟb BuchananބSeaterؓBarroܱႿھଁี֥࣮ࣉྛݖ༥ᇁ֥ษં,ҕBuchanan(1976)aSeater(1993)b ಖط,ഈඍٳ༅ѩ҂ၩሢ,ҍᆟᆟҦቔູ၂۱ᆜุఃིႋ൞ᇏྟ֥,ᆃ౼थႿᆟکሧჷႨ֥ඣbऎุٳ༅ॖၛҕᄇSeater(1993),Barro(1989)b ֒ಖᆃߎ൞ᄝऺضථॿࡏଽษં໙ี,ஆԢਔࡎ۬ၹ֥ቔႨb҂ݖࠧᄝࡎ۬ᅔྟ֥౦ঃ༯,ঔᅦྟᆟҦ္߶֝ᇁ၂Ϯࡎ۬ඣ֥ഈശ,ᆺ൞ࡎ۬ഈശ֥؇ࢠູߏત,ѩіགྷԛ၂ק֥ࢨะྙb Ԯऺضථ࿐ஊ္ؓყ௹٤ӈᇗ൪,ᆃ၂ׄॖၛҕऺضථ ֥๙ ંֻؽᅣb JoannaSiwinska&PiotrBujak(2003)ؓഈඍඹ۱ଆࣉྛݖбࢠބဒbҕॉ໓ང:[1]ऺضථ.ࣼြa০༏ބࠊл๙ં[M].ۚޟြၲ,Кࣘ:അༀႆܶ,2004.[2] cy?[J].JournalofPublicEconomics,,1997.[4][J].AmericanEconomicReview,,1985.[5][J].AmericanEconomicReview,1963.[6]:theinconsistencyofoptimalplans[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,,1977.[7]GiavazziF.,..Searchingfornon lineareffectsoffiscalpolicy:evidencefromin dustrialanddevelopingcountries[R].,2000.[8]:amacroeconomicmodelofmonopoly[J].QuerterlyJournalofEconomics,,1985.[9] rationalmodelofthebusinesscyclewithwageandpriceiner tia[J].QuerterlyJournalofEconomics,,1985.[10]:explainingtheeffectsoffiscalausteri ty[J].AmericanEconomicReview,,1993.[11][J].AmericanEconomicReview,,1972.
70 ഈݚҍࣜն࿐࿐Б 2008୍ֻ2௹[12][J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,,1980.[13]-inflationtradeoffs:reply[J].AmericanEco nomicReview,(4),1977.[14][J].JournalofMonetaryEconomics,(1),1982.[15][J].AmericanEconomicReview,(17),1968.[16] Canseverefiscalcontractionsbeexpansionary? [R].NBERMacroeco nomicsAnnual,1990.[17][J].QuarterlyJournalofEconomies,1999.[18][J].JournalofPoliticalE conomy,,1990.[19],governmentspending,andprivatesectorbehavior[J].AmericanE conomicReview,(5),1983.[20][J].QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,, KeynesianEffectsofFiscalPolicyLIYong you(CollegeofEconomicsandFiscalManagement,AnhuiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Bengbu233041,China) Abstract: Basedonclassicliteraturesoffiscalpolicy,fromKeynesianaggregatereve nue expendituremodel,thispapersummarizesandreviewsthethreeeffectsofstablizingfis calpolicyincludingKeynesianeffects,Non Keynesianeffectsanddemand ,althoughthereisalargediver genceaboutshortandlong termeffectsoffiscalpolicyinmacro control,itdoesn tindicatethatfiscalpolicycan tserveastheroleofstabilizingeconomy,onthecontrary,. Keywords: Keynesianeffects;non Keynesianeffects;demand neutraleffects(责任编辑:一天)
