뗚14뻭ꆡ뗚6웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ,ꆡꆡꆡꆡ2006쓪ꆡꆡ12퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ훐맺맜샭뿆톧ChineseJouentScienceDec.,ꆡ2006컄헂뇠뫅:1003-207(2006)06-0050-06믹폚뗧ퟓ폫웵풼쫐뎡뗄릩펦솴킭ퟷ뗄퇐뺿맹ꆡ쟭1,2,퇮뗂샱2,랮ꆡ늩1(11쟥뮪듳톧릫릲맜샭톧풺,놱뺩ꆡ100084;21듳솬샭릤듳톧맜샭톧풺,쇉쓾듳솬ꆡ116024)햪ꆡ튪:춨맽웚좨믺훆,붨솢쇋뗧ퟓ쫐뎡폫뒫춳웵풼쫐뎡릲듦쿂뗄릩펦솴룷뻶닟훷쳥뗄뻶닟쒣탍,릩펦짌춨맽짨뚨뫏샭뗄웵풼닎쫽,퓶잿웤닺욷퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄뺺헹솦,뛸퓚웵풼쫐뎡믱뗃쿠펦뗄쫕틦,춬쪱벤샸쇣쫛짌뗄닺욷릺싲솿캪ퟮ폅,틔쪵쿖릩펦솴뗄킭뗷,늢쟳뗃쇋뻹뫢ힴ뿶쿂릩펦솴뗄ퟮ폅볛룱ꆢ닺쓜뫍릺싲뻶닟,ퟮ뫳,뛔짏쫶룷뻶닟쒣탍뗄펰쿬틲쯘뷸탐쇋쏴룐탔럖컶,뷸튻늽퇩횤쇋뷡싛뗄폐킧탔ꆣ맘볼듊:뗧ퟓ쫐뎡;웚좨웵풼;릩펦솴;릩펦솴킭뗷훐춼럖샠뫅:F713ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A탐캪,돤럖샻폃솽룶쫐뎡뗄폅뗣,맦뇜웤럧쿕,퓚릩1ꆡ틽퇔펦솴뗄쪵볹맽돌훐쿔뗃뫜폐뇘튪ꆣ쯦ퟅ췸싧벼쫵뗄랢햹,틔Internet캪붻틗욽첨떱잰헫뛔릩펦솴킭ퟷ뗄퇐뺿훷튪뮹쫇벯훐퓚떥뗄뗧ퟓ쫐뎡(e-marketplace)틲웤붻틗쇩믮뫍뇣뷝튻쫐뎡,Tsay\[2\뫍]Cachon\[3\내]헕늻춬뗄럖샠랽쪽럖놻풽살풽뛠뗄웳튵쯹쟠\[1\]ꆣ퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡훐훮뛠뇰뛔듋뷸탐쇋쿪쾸뗘싛쫶ꆣWu\[4\ퟮ]퓧퇐뺿쇋뗧ퟓ싲랽벰싴랽쿠쿠뺺볛,닺욷볛룱췪좫평쫐뎡뗄릩쟳쫐뎡폫웵풼쫐뎡릲듦쿂뗄떥릩펦짌뫍뛠쇣쫛짌릩펦맘쾵쯹뻶뚨,틲듋볛룱늨뚯뷏듳,붻틗컈뚨탔튲뇈뷏솴뗄ퟮ폅뚩릺뫍볛룱닟싔,늢쟳뗃쇋룃뮷뺳쿂릩펦닮,폐쪱짵훁컞램돉붻ꆣ폫뗧ퟓ쫐뎡췪좫늻춬뗄쫇짌뫍쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟탐캪ꆣGolovachk\[5\]ina퓚뒫춳뗄붨솢퓚뎤웚ꆢ컈뚨뫏ퟷ맘쾵믹뒡짏뗄웵풼쫐Wu뗄퇐뺿믹뒡짏,뷸튻늽붫웤췘햹떽쫐뎡탨쟳캪뎡,퓚웵풼쫐뎡훐,릩탨쮫랽튻냣뚼춨맽쿔탔믲틾탔뛀솢폚쿖믵쫐뎡볛룱뗄쯦믺뇤솿뗄쟩뿶ꆣ뛸Lee뫍뗄뫏풼살쏷좷쮫랽뎤웚뗄릩쟳맘쾵,릩탨쮫랽뗄뫏Whang\[6\퓲]퇐뺿쇋뗧ퟓ쫐뎡폫웵풼쫐뎡릲듦쿂뗄뛾ퟷ맘쾵뇈뷏컈뚨,볛룱늨뚯튲뇈뷏짙,떫쫇평폚웤볛벶릩펦솴킭뗷컊쳢,랢쿖퓚룃쟩뿶쿂쇣쫛짌뗄쫕틦룱룕탔,릩펦짌뫍쇣쫛짌췹췹컞램횱뷓듓쫐뎡볛룱튪폅폚릩펦짌ꆣ탬뺭틢\[7\퇐]뺿쇋솽룶쫐뎡릲듦쿂늨뚯뗄맽돌훐믱뗃쿠펦뗄쫕틦ꆣ샽죧:쫐뎡닺욷볛쓦쿲엄싴웚좨뫍떥랽횧뢶웵풼쿂릩펦짌ꆢ쇣쫛짌뫍룱쿂뗸쪱,쯤좻쇣쫛짌횱뷓쿲쫐뎡릺싲뿉붵뗍릺믵쾵춳뗄샻죳쒣탍ꆣ돉놾,떫퓚웵풼뗄쿞훆(죧뷏룟뗄캥풼뒦랣돉놾),죔짏쫶퇐뺿췹췹볙뚨볛룱캪캨튻뗄췢짺뇤솿믲헟탨쿲릩펦짌틔룟폚쿖믵쫐뎡볛룱뗄웵풼볛룱릺싲짌쫐뎡탨쟳캪폫볛룱컞맘뗄만뚨솿,쿔좻헢튻볙짨쪹욷믲헟쫇럾컱,컞램쿭쫜뗍볛닉릺뗄뫃뒦;뛔릩펦짌웤퇐뺿폫쪵볊쟩뿶늢늻튻훂ꆣ쯹틔,싛컄퓚볙짨뗧살쮵,쯤좻뿉틔샻폃웵풼살맦뇜쿖믵쫐뎡닺욷탨쟳ퟓ쫐뎡볛룱ꆢ쫐뎡탨쟳솿뫍닺욷돉놾뻹캪폫쫐뎡ힴ뇤뮯뗄럧쿕,떫쫇퓚쫐뎡볛룱짏짽쪱,릩펦짌튲컞램첬쿠맘뗄뇤솿뗄믹뒡짏,틽죫웚좨웵풼(Option쿭쫜떽룟볛쿺쫛뗄뫃뒦ꆣ틲듋,퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뫍웵풼Contract),퇐뺿릩펦짌뫍쇣쫛짌퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뫍웵풼쫐뎡릲듦쪱,닉폃떥튻뗄쫐뎡뫏ퟷ랽쪽췹췹컞램룸쫐뎡쿂뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟ꆣ웤훐웚좨웵풼훷튪풴폚뷰죚쇬폨싲싴쮫랽뢻폐떯탔뗄뻶닟,쪹뗃쮫랽뗄쫕틦튲틲폲,횸웵풼뗄돖폐죋횧뢶좨샻뷰룸폨웚좨싴랽,좡뗃듋뛸복짙,늢뷸튻늽붵뗍릩펦솴뗄킧싊ꆣ틲듋,죧뫎퓚웵풼횴탐죕튪쟳싴랽싄탐웵풼뗄좨샻,뛸컞탫돐킭뗷릩펦솴룷돉풱퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뫍웵풼쫐뎡훐뗄뻶닟떣뛮췢뗄틥컱\[8\]ꆣRitchken뫍Tapiero\[9\ퟮ]퓧붫웤쫕룥죕웚틽죫떽뿢듦퇐뺿훐,틔웚춨맽웚좨믺훆뛔돥닺욷볛:2005-09-15;탞뚩죕웚:2006-10-11믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훺훘뗣쿮쒿룱뫍쫽솿늨뚯뗄럧쿕,듋뫳,쯦ퟅ릩펦솴퇐뺿뗄랢(70031020)ퟷ헟볲뷩:맹쟭(1975-),쓐(몺ퟥ),붭컷욼쿧죋,쟥뮪듳톧릫릲햹,웚좨퓲틲웤떯탔놻풽살풽뛠뗄톧헟쯹쟠뛸놻맜샭톧풺늩쪿뫳,퇐뺿랽쿲:뗧ퟓ짌컱ꆢ뗧ퟓ헾컱1펦폃떽릩펦솴킭뗷뗄퇐뺿훐,샽죧:Cachon뫍Lariv2
뗚6웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맹쟭뗈:믹폚뗧ퟓ폫웵풼쫐뎡뗄릩펦솴킭ퟷ뗄퇐뺿ꆤ51ꆤ\[10\iere춨]맽웚좨웵풼틔쪵쿖릩펦솴훐뗄탅쾢릲쿭;싲늻뎬맽웤웚좨ퟜ솿뗄닺욷뗄좨솦,컞탨돐떣뛮췢Seifert뫍Ralf,W\[11\퇐]뺿쇋웚좨볛룱캪췢짺뇤솿쪱뗄틥컱ꆣ뗚뛾뷗뛎쇣쫛짌퓲룹뻝쫐뎡탨쟳뫍웚좨횴뻟폐럧쿕욫뫃뗄싲랽뗄ퟮ폅뚩릺뻶닟;Barnes-탐볛룱틔벰뗧ퟓ쫐뎡볛룱좷뚨웤웚좨횴탐솿뫍뗧ퟓSchuster,Bassok뫍Anup12\ind\[i퓲]춨맽웚좨웵풼퇐쫐뎡뗄닺욷릺싲솿,릩펦짌룹뻝쇣쫛짌뗄뚩릺솿ퟩ뺿쇋솽뷗뛎탨쟳뻟폐쿠맘탔쿂뗄릩펦솴킭ퟷ맽돌;횯닺쓜늢닉폃ힼ쪱릩펦뗄짺닺랽쪽ꆣ십쪿뮪\[13\뗈]퇐뺿쇋샻폃웚좨믺훆풤뚨릩펦짌짺닺캪쇋뇣폚쳖싛,퓚싛컄훐ퟶ돶죧쿂볙뚨:볙짨떥쓜솦뗄쟩뿶;엋뺰쏺\[14\뗈]퓲춨맽쪵컯웚좨랽램퇐뺿캻닺욷뗄웚좨볛룱ꆢ횴탐볛룱뫍뗧ퟓ쫐뎡볛룱럖뇰쇋릩펦솴훐뗄쓜솦뻶닟컊쳢,늢뗃떽쇋죡탔쳵볾쿂캪coꆢce뫍cs,웤훐cs=cH(w)캪췢짺뇤솿,췪좫평뗄쓜솦뻶닟닟싔ꆣ춬퇹쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿튲쫇믹폚떥튻뗄쫐뎡탐쟩w뻶뚨쟒맘폚w떥뗷뗝퓶,벴쯦ퟅ쫐뎡탐웵풼쫐뎡,뛸쎻폐뾼싇틔뗧ퟓ쫐뎡캪욽첨뗄쿖믵쫐쟩뗄룄짆(w퓶듳),쫐뎡뛔룃닺욷뗄탨쟳튲믡쿠펦뎡뛔릩펦솴킭ퟷ뗄펰쿬ꆣ뗄퓶볓,듓뛸떼훂쫐뎡훐룃닺욷볛룱뗄짏헇,쇮쫐뎡놾컄퓚짏쫶퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏,붫웚좨웵풼틽죫떽탐쟩w뗄럖늼몯쫽뫍룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽럖뇰캪G(w)뗧ퟓ쫐뎡폫웵풼쫐뎡릲듦뗄쫐뎡뮷뺳훐,첽쳖룃쟩뫍g(w)ꆣ쇣쫛짌뗄웚좨릺싲솿ꆢ웚좨횴탐솿뫍뗧ퟓ뿶쿂릩펦짌뫍쇣쫛짌뗄킭ퟷ닟싔뫍뻶닟탐캪ꆣ춨맽쫐뎡뗄닺욷릺싲솿럖뇰캪Qꆢqe뫍qsꆣ쫐뎡탨쟳D퇐뺿랢쿖,릩펦짌룹뻝뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄ힴ뿶,뫏샭뗘훆뚨캪cs뗄몯쫽,쇣쫛짌뗄쫐뎡웚췻쫕틦f(D)캪D뗄웤볛룱뫍닺쓜헾닟,퓶볓웤쫕틦뗄춬쪱벤샸쇣쫛짌몯쫽ꆣ룹뻝뺭볃톧훐뗄킧폃샭싛뿉틔붫f(D)뇭쪾닺짺킭ퟷ뗄풸췻,쪹웤퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡폫웵풼쫐뎡훐뗄캪f(D)=Z(D)ꚵ(w),평폚쇣쫛짌뗄뇟볊웚췻쫕닺욷뚩릺솿캪ퟮ폅,듓뛸돤럖샻폃솽룶쫐뎡뗄폅뗣,틦맘폚쫐뎡탨쟳D뗝복,틲듋볙짨Z(D)맘폚쫐뎡맦뇜웤럧쿕,ퟮ훕듯떽릩펦솴뗄킭ퟷ,늢쟳뗃쇋뻹뫢탨쟳D뗝퓶쟒캪낼몯쫽ꆣ쇭췢볙짨ꚵ(w)맘폚w뗝ힴ뿶쿂릩펦짌뫍쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟,ퟮ뫳뛔짏쫶쒣퓶,틔뇭쪾쇣쫛짌뗄웚췻쫕틦쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뺭볃ힴ뿶w탍뷸탐쇋럂헦럖컶,퇩횤쇋웚좨웵풼뗄폐킧탔ꆣ뗄룄짆뛸퓶듳ꆣ쯹틔룹뻝볙뚨뿉횪f(D)캪퓶몯쫽쟒뛾뷗뿉캢,fꇤ(D)2ꆡ쒣탍쏨쫶퓲뇭쪾쇣쫛짌뗄횧뢶쓜솦,평탨쟳샭싛뿉횪D5](cs)=fꇤ-1[1(cs),퓚뫏ퟷ맽돌훐횻싛컄뾼싇평떥릩펦짌뫍떥쇣쫛짌틔벰틔뗧ퟓ쫐폐떱f(D)듳폚쇣쫛짌뗄쯹폐돉놾횧돶쪱,쇣쫛짌뎡캪붻틗욽첨뗄쿖믵쫐뎡폫웵풼쫐뎡ퟩ돉뗄릩펦닅믡잩뚩뫏풼,럱퓲뻜뻸잩뚩뫏풼ꆣ쇮ꛈ=솴,짺닺뫍쿺쫛튻훖뻟폐뷏뎤붻믵쳡잰웚ꆢ뷏룟닺욷ꚵ(w)/H(w),쟒ꛈꇤ<0,벴쯦ퟅw뗄퓶볓,cs뗄퓶돉놾ꆢ뷏뛌쿺쫛벾뷚뫍볛룱쿂뗸뷏뿬뗄뻟폐쯦믺쫐뎤쯙뛈튪뿬폚쇣쫛짌뗄웚췻쫕틦뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ쇣쫛뎡탨쟳뗄닺욷ꆣ퓚닺욷뗄짺닺뫍쿺쫛맽돌훐,릩펦짌캪럧쿕훐탔뫍췪좫샭탔,쯹틔웤웚좨뚩릺솿Q늻짌쫇쇬떼헟,쇣쫛짌쫇ힷ쯦헟,릩펦짌룸뚨튻쳗웵풼믡뎬맽뗧ퟓ쫐뎡볛룱캪ce쪱웤쯹웚췻뗄쫐뎡탨쟳솿닎쫽,쇣쫛짌뻝듋좷뚨쯼뗄ퟮ폅닺욷뚩릺솿ꆣ릩펦D,벴QꇜD(ce),듓뛸:fꇤ(Q)ꇝceꆣ릩펦짌뗄닺쓜솴훐탅쾢뛔돆,릩펦짌쓜릻룹뻝웤쯹믱뗃탅쾢,췆뛏캪K,떥캻닺쓜돉놾캪c쇣쫛짌뗄닺욷뚩릺솿kꆣ,늢뻝듋훆뚨ퟮ병뻶닟ꆣ퓚웵풼붻틗죕,쇣쫛짌뿉틔듓뗧ퟓ쫐뎡믱뗃웤쯼뎧짌릩3ꆡ쇣쫛짌뗄뻶닟펦뗄춬훖닺욷,늢룹뻝뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄닺욷볛룱뫍웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱뻶뚨웤웚좨횴탐솿뫍뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄닺욷릺쇣쫛짌쫗쿈룹뻝릩펦짌뗄웚좨볛룱헾닟[co,싲솿ce\],뻶뚨웤웚좨릺싲솿Qꆣ퓚웵풼붻틗죕,쇣쫛짌룹,릩펦짌튲뿉틔붫웤맽쪣닺쓜퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뷸탐쿺쫛,떫쫇퓚웵풼잩뚩횮잰,릩펦짌뫍쇣쫛짌뻹컞램뻝ce뫍cs뗄듳킡좷뚨웤닺욷릺싲솿,떱cs>ce쪱,믱뗃뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄볛룱탅쾢ꆣ볙짨릩펦짌뫍쇣쫛짌쫇쇣쫛짌붫좫늿횴탐웚좨,떱cs<ce쪱,쇣쫛짌퓲췪럧쿕훐탔뫍췪좫샭탔뗄ꆣ좫듓뗧쇋쫐뎡릺싲닺욷,평짏쫶볙뚨뿉붫쇣쫛짌뗄릩펦짌퓚뗚튻뷗뛎쫗쿈랢늼닺욷뗄웚좨볛룱웚췻샻죳뇭쪾캪:ꇇ=f(D+)-c(OpoQ-csD+(cs-ce)[DꇄtionPrice)뫍횴탐볛룱(ExercisePrice),쇣쫛짌r룹뻝릩펦짌쯹랢늼뗄볛룱헾닟뫍쫐뎡풤웚쫕틦,좷Q](1)뚨웚좨릺싲솿,쇣쫛짌쯹릺싲뗄웚좨쪹웤퓚쿂튻뷗웤훐[DꇄQ\],뇭쪾퓚D뫍Q횮볤좡킡ꆣ뛎뿉틔룹뻝쫐뎡뗄탨쟳쟩뿶내헕풤뚨뗄횴탐볛룱릺캪쇋쟳뷢쇣쫛짌뗄뚩릺뻶닟,뿉틔붫쇣쫛짌뗄
ꆤ52ꆤ훐맺맜샭뿆톧ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2006쓪컊쳢럖캪솽뷗뛎살뷸탐쟳뷢,쫗쿈쟳뷢퓚Q뫍cs룸뚨쟩뿶쿂쇣쫛짌뗄웚좨횴탐솿qe뫍뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄닺ꆡ+ꇒfꇤ(Q)[f[d(cs)]-csD(cs)]dH(cs)0욷릺싲솿qs,벴쿂쫶폅뮯컊쳢:ꆡ+ꇒꇞ[f(Q)-csQ]dH(cs)(7)fꇤ(Q)maxꇇ(qe,qs)ꆡs1tꆡqsꇝ0,Qꇝqeꇝ0r붫뗈쪽(7)뛔Q쟳욫떼,뿉뗃:q,qes5Eꇇr(2)(c쯦횮퓲룹뻝5Q=-co+ꇒꇞs-ce)dH(cs)ce(2)훐쯹뗃뗄qe뫍qs쟳뷢ퟮ폅웚좨볆릺솿Q3ꆣꆡ+ꇒꇞfꇤ[fꇤ(Q)-cs]dH(cs)(Q)maxꇇ(Q3)ꆡs1tꆡQꇝ0(3)rQ3=-co-ꇒcecsdH(cs)-ce[1-H(ce)]0평짏쫶볙뚨,퓲뿉쟳뗃릫쪽(2)훐뗄웚좨횴탐솿ꆡ+qꇒfꇤ(Q)csdꚷ(cs)+fꇤ(Q)[1-e캪:0QH(fꇤ(Q))]cs>ceqe=0웤쯼(4)=-co-쮵쏷떱뗧ퟓ쫐뎡볛룱듳폚웚좨횴탐볛쪱ꇒce(1-h(cs))dcs+0ꇒfꇤ(Q)(1-0,쇣쫛짌붫췪좫횴탐웚좨,랴횮퓲럅웺횴탐웚좨ꆣh(cs))dcs릫쪽(2)훐뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄닺욷릺싲솿q=-cs퓲뿉틔뇭o+ꇒfꇤ(Q)(1-h(cs))dcs(8)c쪾캪e:D(cs)cs<ce뛸52Eꇇr5Q2=\[1-H(fꇤ(Q))]fꇥ(Q)<0,틲qs=D(cs)-Qce<cs<fꇤ(Q)(5)듋Eꇇ캪맘폚Q뗄낼몯쫽,쇮5Erꇇ/5Q=0,r0csꇝfꇤ(Q)틲듋떱뗧ퟓ쫐뎡닺욷볛룱킡폚웚좨횴탐볛룱퓲뿉뗃떽뗈쪽(6),Q3벴캪쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺쪱솿ꆣ,벴:cs<ce,쇣쫛짌퓲췪좫듓뗧ퟓ쫐뎡릺싲웤쯹탨뗄닺욷솿횤뇏ꆣD(cs):죧맻cs듳폚ce좴킡폚쇣쫛짌뗄횧뢶쓜솦fꇤ(Q),쇣쫛짌퓲췪좫횴탐웤웚좨릺싲솿췆싛1ꆡQ3맘폚co뫍ce퇏룱떥뗷뗝복횤쏷:틲캪:Q,늢듓뗧ퟓ쫐뎡릺싲쪣폠뗄탨쟳솿D(cs)-Q;튻떩뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄닺욷볛룱cs룟폚쇣쫛짌뗄횧뢶쓜솦5Q31-H(c)=e5cefꇥ(Q30;)[1-H(fꇤ[(Q3<))]fꇤ(Q)쪱,쇣쫛짌퓲늻릺싲죎뫎닺욷ꆣ5Q3평뷡싛=1(4)ꆢ(5),뿉틔쟳뗃(3)훐쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅5cofꇥ(Q3)[1-H(fꇤ<0(Q3))]웚좨뚩릺솿Q3ꆣ쯹틔Q3맘폚co뫍ce퇏룱떥뗷뗝복ꆣ뚨샭1ꆡ퓚릩펦짌웚좨볛룱헾닟[co,ce]쿂뗄쇣쫛횤뇏ꆣ짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿Q3뿉틔뇭쪾캪:평췆싛1뿉횪,쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿캪co뫍ce뗄복몯쫽,틲듋떱릩펦짌쳡룟웤볛룱쪱,쇣쫛짌co=ꇒfꇤ(Q3)(1-h(cs))dcs(6)c퓲복짙웤닺욷뚩릺솿ꆣe횤쏷:룹뻝릫쪽(1)뫍뷡싛(4)ꆢ(5)쇣쫛짌뗄웚췻샻죳뿉틔뇭쪾캪4ꆡ릩펦짌뗄뻶닟:Eꇇ=E[f(max[D(c릩펦짌쫗쿈내헕쇣쫛짌뗄웚좨릺싲솿ퟩ횯짺s)-Q+])]rꆡ닺,떱쇣쫛짌뗄웚좨횴탐솿킡폚웤웚좨뚩릺솿쪱,릩-Q(co+E[(csꇄco)])펦짌뿉틔붫웤맽쪣뗄닺쓜퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡쿺쫛,평폚쫐=-coQ+ꇒꇞ(cs-ce)[DꇄQ]h(cs)dcs뎡뗄늻좷뚨탔뷏잿,틲듋볙뚨릩펦짌뗄쪣폠닺욷퓚ce뗧ퟓ쫐뎡헒떽쿠펦싲볒뗄룅싊캪m(cs),0ꇜmꇜ1ꆡ+ꇒꇞ[f(D)-csD]h(cs)dcs쟒맘폚cs뗝복,벴쯦ퟅ뗧ퟓ쫐뎡볛룱뗄퓶볓,릩펦0짌헒떽쿠펦싲볒뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ붫릩펦짌뗄닺욷돉=-coQ+ꇒꇞ(cs-ce)QdH(cs)ce놾럖캪뎤웚짺닺돉놾bc뫍뛌웚짺닺돉놾bs,웤훐뎤
뗚6웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맹쟭뗈:믹폚뗧ퟓ폫웵풼쫐뎡뗄릩펦솴킭ퟷ뗄퇐뺿ꆤ53ꆤ웚짺닺돉놾캪릩펦짌싺ퟣ쇣쫛짌웵풼탨쟳뗄떥캻닺<K쪱욷돉놾,뛸뛌웚짺닺돉놾퓲캪릩펦짌붫웤쪣폠닺쓜3[E3+[(bc-ce)]+E+[m(cs-bs)\]\]퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡쿺쫛뗄떥캻닺욷돉놾,볙짨co=bcꇜbs,쟒[1-(1/ꛅco(Q3))]횻폐떱cs>bs쪱,릩펦짌닅뿉쓜퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡믱틦,(13)듓뛸붫웤쪣폠닺쓜퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뷸탐쿺쫛ꆣ룹뻝짏쫶솪뫏뚨샭1폫릫쪽(12)퓲뿉뗃떽떱Q3ꇝK쪱볙뚨3,릩펦짌뗄웚췻샻죳뿉틔뇭쪾캪:co=E\[\[csꇄfꇤ(k)\]\]-E\[\[csꇄ3ce\]\]ꇇ=E([c14)oQ3+3qe(ce-bc)s+m+캨튻탔횤쏷:틲캪ꇇ3(co,ce)맘폚co솬탸,쟒(K3-qe)(cs-bs)-ckK](9)뚨샭2ꆡ릩펦짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨횴탐볛룱캪캪낼몯쫽,쯹틔뿉틔뗃떽:23dcꇇ2e=3bc(w),웤훐w=H-1(ce/cs)(10)+dQ-E[m(cs-bs)]-d2=dQ2codcod2(coco횤쏷:틲캪dꇇ55sꇇꇇ:=s+sdcoE3+[(bc-ce)])dce5ce5codce솪솢뗈쪽(12),퓲뿉뗃:=ce-bc(w)-m(w)[cs(w)-bs(w+)]쇮:dꇇ/dce=0,럖캪쿂쫶솽훖쟩뿶뷸탐쳖2+QꇒꇞsꛈfÊ(Q)dG(w)>0,쯹틔뗈-1(c/Zꇤ(Q))s싛:쪽(13)ꆢ(14)캪웤캨튻뷢뫍ퟮ폅뷢ꆣ횤뇏ꆣ(1)떱ceꇜbs(w)쪱,뿉틔뗃떽3ce=bc(w)ꆣ평뚨샭2뫍뚨샭3뿉횪웚좨횴탐볛룱룹뻝쫐뎡(2)떱ce>bs(w)쪱,룹뻝짏쫶볙뚨,쇣쫛짌뗄ힴ첬뗄늻춬뗈폚믲헟쫇뗍폚떥캻닺욷뗄짺닺돉놾,웚좨뚩릺솿Q늻믡뎬맽퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡볛룱캪ce쪱웤릩펦짌퓲훷튪쫇춨맽웚좨볛룱살믱좡샻죳,틔쏖늹쯹웚췻뗄쫐뎡탨쟳솿웤틲놣횤쇣쫛짌뗄웚좨뚩릺솿뛸쪹웤닺욷컞램퓚뗧,뗃:dꇇ/dce>0,폫짏쫶볙s뚨쎬뛜,늻돉솢ꆣ뛸bcꇜbs,틲듋3ce=bc(w)돉솢ꆣퟓ쫐뎡쿺쫛쯹쯰쪧뗄믺믡돉놾(뗈쪽(13)뗄럖쒸쯹폖쪾),뛸쟒퓶볓웚좨횴탐볛룱뇈퓶볓웚좨볛룱쪹웵풼csH(w)=3ce,퓲w=H-13(ce/cs)횤뇏ꆣ뛔쇣쫛짌뗄웚췻볛횵쿂붵뗄룼뿬,틲캪횻폐떱뗧ퟓ평릫쪽쫐뎡뗄볛룱룟폚웚좨횴탐볛쪱,쇣쫛짌닅횴탐웚좨,(4)횪떱cs>ce,벴w>H-13(ce/cs)쪱쇣쫛짌닅횴탐웚좨,틲듋평뚨샭2뿉횪릩펦짌뗄웚퓶볓횴탐볛룱붫퓶볓쇣쫛짌뗄돉놾,듓뛸쪹웤룼폐좨횴탐볛룱뗈폚믲헟쫇뗍폚웤뎤웚짺닺돉놾뿉쓜쿲뗧ퟓ쫐뎡,쯹틔릩펦짌뿉틔룹뻝뚨샭2ꆢ3bc,틔퓶볓웤퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄뺺헹폅쫆살짨뚨웤볛룱,듓뛸쪹웤쫕틦ퟮ폅ꆣ,뛸춨맽짨뚨뫏샭뗄웚좨볛룱co살늹뎥웤쯰쪧ꆣ쿂쏦퇐뺿릩펦짌죧뫎짨5ꆡ뻹뫢ힴ뿶쿂뗄ퟮ폅뻶닟뚨웤ퟮ폅뗄웚좨볛룱3coꆣ볙짨ꛅ룹뻝짏쫶뷡싛,뿉틔뗃떽뻹뫢ힴ뿶쿂뗄쇣쫛짌co(Q)캪웚좨뚩릺솿뛔웚좨볛룱co뗄떯뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿ꆢ릩펦짌뗄ퟮ폅닺쓜벰웤ퟮ폅뗄탔co뚨볛닟싔ꆣ,볇캪:ꛅco(Q)=5Q-5coQꆣ뚨샭3ꆡ릩펦짌뗄ퟮ병웚좨뚨볛췆싛2ꆡ뻹뫢ힴ뿶쿂쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿캪:3co캪:Q3E++[(b3c-ce)]+E[m(cs-bs)]ꇒꇞꛈQ3)dG(w)+E\[\[c-1sꇄ(c/Z(Q3fꇥ())Q3<Ks13co=1-1/ꛅco(Q3)fꇤ(Q3)\]\]-E[csꇄbc]-E[m+(cs-bs)]=0E\[\[csꇄfꇤ(k)\]\]-E\[\[csꇄ3ce\]\]Q3ꇝK(15)(11)횤쏷:평뚨샭1ꆢ2ꆢ3뿉뗃췆싛2ꆣ횤쏷:붫3ce=bc(H-13(ce/cs))듺죫쪽(9)늢뛔웤볙뚨K3캪뻹뫢ힴ뿶쿂릩펦짌뗄ퟮ폅닺쓜춶쟳떼뿉뗃:,퓲뿉뗃췆싛3ꆣdꇇ췆싛3ꆡ뻹뫢ힴ뿶쿂릩펦짌뗄ퟮ폅뗄닺쓜춶뫍볛=Q+dQ+(cdo-E[m(cs-bs)]-codco룱헾닟뿉틔럖뇰뇭쪾캪:E3[(bc-ce)])(12)K3=Q33(co,ce);평릫쪽(12)뫍짏쫶뚨샭벰볙짨,뿉뗃떽3:떱Q3co=\[ꛂ/\[1-(1/(ꛅco(K33)))\]\];ce=bc(w)
ꆤ54ꆤ훐맺맜샭뿆톧ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2006쓪웤훐:w=H-13(ce/cs)펦짌퓲붫쳡룟웤웚좨볛룱틔쏖늹웤즥쪧퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡횤쏷:평뚨샭2ꆢ3틗뗃췆싛3ꆣ쿺쫛닺욷뗄믺믡돉놾,뛸붵뗍웤웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱,틔퓶잿웤닺욷폫뗧ퟓ쫐뎡춬샠닺욷뗄뺺헹솦,릩펦짌6ꆡ쯣샽럖컶틲웚좨웵풼뛸뗃떽뗄쫕틦튲훰붥붵뗍(632174<쒳냫떼쳥킾욬뎧짌캪쫐뎡뗄훷튪킾욬릩펦짌,705128),떫쫇릩펦짌춨맽퓚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡쿺쫛웤쪣폠닺퓚쫐뎡훐햼폐훷떼뗘캻,룃릩펦짌퓚쿺쫛벾뷚뾪쪼쓜뛸믱뗃쇋쿠펦뗄쫕틦늹뎥ꇇ=227198,쟒웤ퟜs횮잰,랢늼웤캢뒦샭킾욬뗄웚좨볛룱헾닟,쇣쫛짌룹쫕틦튪뗝퓶(860172>705128)ꆣ뛔폚쇣쫛짌뛸퇔,뻝릩펦짌뗄볛룱헾닟뫍쫐뎡풤웚,릺싲튻뚨솿뗄웚ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿퓲쯦ퟅm뗄퓶볓뛸훰붥복짙,죧:좨,퓚웵풼붻틗죕,듦퓚릩펦짌샠닺욷뗄뗧ퟓ쫐뎡ꆣ(61120<67171),짏쫶뷡맻퇩횤쇋뚨샭2ꆢ3쯹뗃뗄룹뻝짏쫶볙뚨,볙짨퓚쫐뎡ힴ뿶w캪x뗄쟩뿶쿂,뷡싛ꆣ뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄볛룱cs럾듓럖늼fꇤ(x)=7ꆡ뷡쫸폯10/(ꚣ(2-2x))xe,쇣쫛짌뗄쫐뎡풤웚쫕틦f(D)뇭쪾캪xfꇤ(x)=1000(1-10-e),짺닺돉놾bs=bc=평폚뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄톸쯙랢햹,뎧짌믱뗃닺욷풽살30,닺쓜k=100,떥캻닺쓜돉놾캪ck=2,룹뻝짏쫶풽뇣샻,헢뛔뒫춳뫏ퟷ뷏캪만뚨뗄웵풼쫐뎡탎돉쇋볙뚨뫍뷡싛,붫쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿뛔릩펦짌뷏듳뗄돥믷ꆣ틲듋죧뫎킭뗷뒫춳웵풼쫐뎡폫뗧ퟓ쫐뗄볛룱헾닟뷸탐쏴룐탔럖컶,뷡맻죧쿂:뎡쮫훘펰쿬쿂뗄릩펦솴퓋펪닟싔돉캪릩펦솴퇐뺿쇬뇭1ꆡ쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿뛔웚좨볛룱헾닟뗄쏴룐탔럖컶폲훐탂뗄죈뗣뫍쓑뗣ꆣ놾컄춨맽웚좨믺훆퇐뺿쇋웵co=4풼쫐뎡폫뗧ퟓ쫐뎡캪욽첨뗄쿖믵쫐뎡릲듦쿂뗄릩펦ce2218141062Q3솴킭ퟷ맽돌ꆣ퇐뺿랢쿖,릩펦짌춨맽짨뚨뫏샭뗄웚91461419616127191112412330106ce=10좨횴탐볛룱틔쳡룟웤폫쿖믵쫐뎡뗄뺺헹솦,뛸춨맽co12108642웚좨볛룱살믱좡쿠펦뗄샻죳,쇣쫛짌퓲룹뻝릩펦짌Q361181019614107161661911121179뗄볛룱헾닟뫍쿖믵쫐뎡뗄볛룱ힴ뿶벰풤웚쫕틦,뫏듓뇭샭뗘낲업웤웚좨릺싲솿ꆢ웚좨횴탐솿뫍쿖믵쫐뎡뗄1뿉틔뗃떽:퓚웚좨볛룱룸뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂,쇣쫛짌뗄웚좨뚩릺솿쯦ퟅ웚좨횴탐볛룱뗄복짙뛸퓶닺욷릺싲솿,듓뛸쪹웤쫕틦ퟮ폅ꆣퟮ뫳뗃떽쇋뻹뫢볓ힴ뿶쿂릩펦짌뗄짺닺뫍뚨볛닟싔틔벰쇣쫛짌뗄닺욷,퓚웚좨횴탐볛룱룸뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂,쇣쫛짌뗄웚좨뚩릺솿맘폚웚좨볛룱떥뗷뗝복,헢폫췆싛1뗄뷡싛튻뚩릺닟싔ꆣ훂ꆣ떱좻,놾컄뗄튻킩뷡싛쫇퓚튻킩볙짨쳵볾쿂쯹룹뻝릩펦짌퓚쫐뎡짏헒떽쿠펦싲볒뿉쓜탔듳킡뗃,췆맣쪱뮹탨튪뷸튻늽뗘퇩횤,떫춨맽솿뮯뗄랽램뗄늻춬캪쪵볹훐뗄뻶닟헟쳡릩쇋튻훖맜샭뗄쫓뗣:퓚릩펦,벴늻춬뗄m횵,볆쯣릩펦짌뗄볛룱헾닟벰웤쫕틦뫍쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿럖뇰죧쿂솴뗄킭ퟷ맽돌훐,춨맽뫏샭뗘럖컶뗧ퟓ쫐뎡폫뒫춳:떱웵풼쫐뎡릲춬펰쿬쿂뗄뎧짌탐캪,뿉틔캪웳튵뗄뻶m=0쪱,뿉뗃쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺솿Q3=67171,릩펦짌뗄볛룱헾닟뫍쫕틦럖뇰캪닟헟쳡릩샭싛틀뻝뫍뻶닟닎뾼,듓뛸쳡룟릩펦솴킧:33싊,뷚풼짺닺돉놾,쪵쿖짧믡탔뗄엁샛췐ퟮ폅ꆣ쇭(co;ce)=(4141;38196)ꇇ췢,붫ퟷ캪뷰죚퇜짺릤뻟뗄웚좨틽죫떽릩펦솴뗄킭m=705128ꆣaxퟷ맽돌훐,뿉틔뷸튻늽췘햹릩펦솴뗄퇐뺿쮼슷ꆣ놾떱m=0115쪱,뿉뗃쇣쫛짌뗄ퟮ폅웚좨뚩릺컄뗄퇐뺿쫇믹폚떥릩펦짌뫍떥쇣쫛짌볙뚨뗄믹뒡솿O3=61120,릩펦짌뗄볛룱헾닟뫍쫕틦럖뇰캪:짏,좻뛸퓚쪵볹떱훐,뛠릩펦짌뫍뛠쇣쫛짌퓚쪵볊훐33(co;ce)=(6119;36124)룼캪맣랺듦퓚,틲듋췸ힴ뷡릹쿂뗄릩펦솴킭ퟷ맽돌ꇇ쫇뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿랽쿲ꆣm=860172ꆣax웤훐웵풼쫕틦:ꇇ=632174,e닎뾼컄쿗:뗧ퟓ쫐뎡뗄쫕틦:ꇇ=227198ꆣs\[1\]LancioniR1A1,SmithM1F1,OlivaT1A11Theroleof평짏쫶뷡맻뿉횪,쯦ퟅ릩펦짌뗄쪣폠닺욷퓚뗧theinternetinsupplychainmanagement\[J\]1Industrialퟓ쫐뎡쿺쫛믺싊뗄퓶볓(듓m=0떽m=0115),릩MarketingManagement,2000,29(1):45-561
뗚6웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맹쟭뗈:믹폚뗧ퟓ폫웵풼쫐뎡뗄릩펦솴킭ퟷ뗄퇐뺿ꆤ55ꆤ\[2\]TsyaA1A1,NahmiasS1andAgrawalN11Modelingsup2짧,2003:2-31plychaincontracts:areview,QuantitativeModelsforSup2\[9\].,\[M\]1Boston:KluwerAcademictractingforPurchasingDecisionsinInventoryManagementPublishers,2000,299-3361\[J\].OperationsResearch,1986,34(6):864-8701\[3\]Cachon1GP11Supplychaincoordinationwithcontracts\[10\].,LariviereM11Contractingtoassuresup2\[C\1]inS1Graves,Tonde,Kokeds1,HandbookinOpera2ply:howtosharedemandforecastsinasupplychain\[J\].tionandManagementsScience:SupplyChainManagement,ManagementScience,2001,47(5):629-6461North-Holland,20031\[11\].,.,\[4\]WuD1J1,KleindorferP1R1,JinE1Zhang1OptimalbiddingOptimalprocurementstrategiesforonlinespotmarkets\[J\].andcontractingatrategiesforcapital-intensivegoods\[J\].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,2004,152(3):EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,2002,137(3):781-7991657-6761\[12\]Barnes-SchusterD.,BassokY.,AnpuindiR..Coordi2\[5\]DolovachkinaN11Supplier-Manufacturerrelationshipsun2nationandFlexibilityinSupplyContractswithOptions\[J\].derforcedcompliancecontracts\[J\1]ManufacturingandSer2ManufacturingandServicesOperationsManagement,viceOperationsManagement,2003,5(1):67-6912002,4(3):171-2071\[6\]LeeH1,WhangS11Theimpactofthesecondarymarketon\[13\]십쪿뮪,뫺붣퇴,쇖폂1튻훖믹폚웚좨뗄릩펦짌쓜솦풤thesupplychain\[J\1]ManagementScience,2002,48(6):뚨쒣탍\[J\1]맜샭릤돌톧놨,2004,18(1):8-111719-7311\[14\]엋뺰쏺,쳆킡컒,쓟뗃뇸1믹폚쪵컯웚좨뗄릩펦솴쓜솦\[7\]탬뺭틢,퇮뗂샱,맹쟭1퓚쿟쓦쿲엄싴웚좨뫍떥랽횧뢶죡탔뻶닟퇐뺿\[J\1]뗧ퟓ뿆벼듳톧톧놨,2005,34(2):285웵풼쿂뗄릩펦솴킭뗷믺훆럖컶\[J\1]훐맺맜샭뿆톧,-28812005,13(4):100-1051\[15\]VarianH11Microeconomicanalysis\[M\1]ThirdEd1New\[8\]랶쇺헱,뫺캷1뷰죚릤돌톧\[M\1]짏몣:짏몣죋쏱돶냦York:WWNorton&Company,1993:465-4801AResearchonSupplyChainCoordinationundere-MarketplaceandContractMarketGUOQiong1,2,YANGDe22li,FANBo1(11SchoolofPublicPolicyandManagement,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084,China;21SchoolofManagement,DalianUniversityofTechnology,Dalian116024,China)Abstract:Thesupplychainmembersꆯdecisionmodelsarebuiltwiththeoptioncontractbetweenthecontractmarketande-marketplacefirstly,aftersettingthepricingpolicyappropriately,thesuppliercangainmoread2vantageinthee-marketplaceandprofitfromthecontractmarket,whichcanalsobeanincentivetotheretailertoorderrationallyandmakethesupplychaincoordinationrealizetheoptimalpricing,capacityandorderstrate2giesintheequilibriumcondition1Intheend,accordingtodifferentfactors,thesensitivityofthedecisionmodelsaresimulatedwhichconfirmsthatoptioncontractscanmakethesupplychaincoordinationberealized1Keywords:e-marketplace;optioncontract;supplychain;supplychaincoordination
