ᇏݓದ१#ሧჷაߌ 2008୍ ֻ18ज ֻ6௹ CHINAPOPULATION,RESOURCESANDENVIRONMENT 2008资源约束与经济增长研究*房 林12 邹卫星(1.ଲषն࿐ࣜ࠶༢,฿ࣃ300222;2.฿ࣃҍࣜն࿐ࣜ࠶༢,฿ࣃ300222)ᅋေ ሧჷჿඏ่ࡱ༯֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ࣮ؓᇏݓࣜ࠶֥ॖӻ࿃ؿᅚऎႵᇗေ֥ંބགྷൌၩၬbЧ໓Ֆޡܴࣜ࠶֥ັܴࠎԤٳ༅ೆ൭,ࢲކ֒భᇏݓഠ߶ބࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ൌ࠽,ᄝԮིႨݦඔ֥ࠎԤഈ,ႄೆਔഠ߶ֹ໊ބሧჷਆ۱႕ཙၹ,๙ݖଆ֥࣡ࠣٳ༅,ᇗ࣮ׄሧჷჿඏؓࣜ࠶༢नޙ่ࡱaሇ၍֥႕ཙbٳ༅ࢲݔіૼ:¹֒௹ሧჷ֥Ⴈਈ౼थႿሧჷ֥ш࠽ིႨaཨٮ֥ш࠽ིႨބൈࡗ์གྷੱ֥նཬbºཨٮሧЧбቀܔնࠇཨٮቀܔ؟ሧЧაཨٮ֥ш࠽ูսੱቀܔཬ൞ࣜ࠶༢թᄝλׄनޙ֥сေ่ࡱb»ሧჷཨݻቀܔ؟ൈ,ཨٮሧЧбࡼཁᇷ༯ࢆbѩՖሧჷჿඏᆃ၂࢘؇ࢳਔᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ሧཨٮാޙ໙ีbቋުՖൌᆣ࢘؇,০ႨླྀᆜંဒᆣਔሧჷཨݻაཨٮሧЧбᆭࡗّ֥ཟܱ༢bܱՍ ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ;ሧჷჿඏ;ഠ߶ֹ໊;ླྀᆜဒᇏٳোݼ ໓ངѓ് A ໓ᅣщݼ 1002-2104(2008)06-0068-06 50؟୍ট,ᇏݓࣜ࠶၂ᆰЌӻሢӻ࿃ॹ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹॖᄜളሧჷؓӉ௹ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥႕ཙ[2]bᇛഒѯ(2003)ॉӉ,ੱڿ۪ष٢భ(1953-1978)୍नᄹӉੱູ%,ڿ੮ਔЇওሱಖሧჷ֥ളӁაཨٮ֥ᄹӉଆ,๙ݖ֤۪֝ष٢(ު1978-2004)୍,ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄵӯགྷ۷ࡆۚᄹӉԛਔܱႿሱಖሧჷቋႪЌթᆷඔ,ѩٳ༅ਔҕඔؓࣜ࠶न֥൝,नᄹӉੱղ֞%,2006୍ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱഈശޙᆴࠣλ֥ׄ݅ࠖ႕ཙ[3]bჅࡾ֩(2006)ࠎႿRomer֞%,ପહ࣮ࣨᆃᇕۚᄹӉੱ൞ڎऎႵॖӻ࿃ྟ?ᆃ(1996)֥၂۱ࠎЧ֥ሧჷჿඏ༯֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆ,๙ݖ۱໙ีၘӮູᇏݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚ௧్ླေࢳճ֥໙ีbՖ֝ބඔᆴଆ֤ԛሱಖሧჷ֥ჿඏؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉթᄝቅθ,ݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥གྷሑ,ुᄝࣜ࠶ۚᄹӉ֥ൈӁളਔ၂ུѩఃቅθ৯აሧჷཨݻੱaሧЧࠣሱಖሧჷ֥Ӂԛྟᇗ֥р؊,ೂሧཨٮാޙaߌಙࡆᇗ,ሧჷ০Ⴈིཌྷܱ[4]bઅݽ(2007)ᄝྍܞׅ෬ઌଆ֥ࠎԤഈ,ᆣૼሱੱ҂ۚ,ሧჷᇗݻࢰ,֩ᆃུᄀটᄀӮູᇅჿᇏݓࣜ࠶ಖሧჷ֥ܥקጋڮቋᇔࡼࣜ࠶ᄹӉ๔ᇌ,ൈฐษਔࢳؿᅚ֥࣠bၹՎ,ࣜ࠶ӻ࿃໗ק֥ᄹӉ҂षሧჷ֥ކथሧჷ֥࣠ਆᇕࠏᇅ[5]bൈ,ھ໓ࡼഠ߶ֹ໊ႄೆ֞aႵི০ႨbིႨݦඔᇏ,ჰၹᄝႿཨٮᆀ൮༵൞၂۱ഠ߶ದ,ࠒҍڶ֥ଢ֥ѩ҂ֆՂູਔิۚཨٮ,ࠒҍڶॖၛູջট1 研究综述ഠ߶ֹ໊aડቀۋބಃ০֩,Weber(1958)Ϝᆃᇕؓҍڶ֥ࡼሧჷაളߌቔູࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ࠎԤᇅჿࣉྛ༢༟ιӫູؓഠ߶ֹ໊֥ሔbഠ߶ֹ໊ؓޡܴࣜ࠶эਈႵི֥ᄹӉٳ༅ᇶေ൞ࡼሧჷବೆ֞ളӁݦඔᇏॉҳႵሢ၂ק֥႕ཙ(Keynes,1971),Zou(1994,1998)ษંഠ߶ቋႪᄹӉ໙ีbݚࡹ(2000)ᄝLucas֥ದ৯ሧЧଽളֹ໊ࣜაࣜ࠶ᄹӉaཨٮᆀԥྐྵྛູ֥ܱ༢,০Ⴈં,֝࠶ᄹӉଆࠎԤഈ,࣮ࣜ࠶ӻ࿃ᄹӉაሧჷॖӻ࿃০Ⴈ֤֞ؓഠ߶ֹ໊ᄀुᇗ,नޙᄹӉੱᄀ֥ۚࢲં[6,7]bဗ่ࡱ༯,ದ৯ሧЧᄹӉੱaದनཨٮაದनሧЧޙᄹӉᄉޣ(֩2001)ษંഠ߶ֹ໊ؓཨٮaሧቆކҦaᅏಊੱ֥э߄[1]bGrimaud֩(2003)ᄵܒࡹਔ၂۱ࠎႿ/Էᄯ൧ӆࡎ۬ၛࠣࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥႕ཙ[8]bڱ॓֩(2007)ࡼാྟߊ0֥ྍྦྷдหଆ,๙ݖؓഠ߶࠹߃ᆀቋႪनޙ໙ြં֥ෆ෬ଆაഠ߶ֹ໊ࢲކఏটॉҳഠ߶ֹ໊ؓีބٳಃࣜ࠶่ࡱ༯֥൧ӆनޙ໙ีࣉྛٳ༅,ฐษਔ҂ࣜ࠶֥႕ཙ[9]b൬۠ರ௹:2008-05-28ቔᆀࡥࢺ:ٜਟ,Ѱൖള,࣮ٚཟູޡܴࣜ࠶a࠹ਈࣜ࠶b*࢝ტ҆ᇗնज़ี۾ܱཛଢ(05JZD00016);฿ࣃᅽ࿐ഠ߶॓࿐ܿ߃ࠎࣁཛଢ(TJ05-JL005);ଲषն࿐ഠ॓ԩބࣜ࠶აഠ߶ؿᅚ࣮ჽࠎࣁཛଢ;฿ࣃҍࣜն࿐॓ؿᅚࠎࣁཛଢ(Y0805)ሧᇹb#68#
ٜਟ֩:ሧჷჿඏაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ࣮Ч໓൞ᄝഈඍં֥ࠎԤഈ,ࡼሱಖሧჷބഠ߶ֹ໊9H=K(5)91fcr-K2=0 K2=Kc1fr=uc(c)fcൈବೆ֞ଆᇏ,࣮ᄝሧჷჿඏ่ࡱ༯ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥नrrޙթᄝྟࠣࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥э߄໙,ี৯ՖሧჷჿඏᆃK&1=BK1-9H=K9k1(B+n+D-fck)-PTc(k)(6)၂൪࢘ࢳᇏݓଢభཨٮሧЧбொ֥֮གྷሑ,ൈ০Ⴈླྀᆜંࠣ༂ҵྩᆞଆ֩࠹ਈٚم,Ֆൌᆣ࢘؇টဒሧK&2=BK2-9H=BK9R2-Clc(R)(7)ჷཨݻބཨٮሧЧбᆭࡗ֥ቔႨܱ༢bႮൔ(4)2K&1ud(c) 模型分析&K=c(8)1uc(c)ࡌഡࡅིႨটሱႿཨٮca෮ཚႵ֥ሱಖሧჷRࡼൔ(8)սೆൔ(6)ᆜ:֤(Ч໓෮ᆷ֥ሱಖሧჷЇওॖᄜളa҂ॖᄜള֥ሱಖሧჷ&აߌሧჷᄝଽ֥ܼၬۀ)ބ෮ႚႵ֥ሧЧc=c(ҍڶ)k,Rfck-B-n-D+PTc(k)uc(9)(c)ᆃᆀӁളི֥ႨඣऎႵॖٳྟ,ࠧఃᇏ,R=-cud(c)ູཨٮᆀ֥ڄགܿх༢ඔ,ᄝЧU=uuc(c)(c)+Cl(R)+PT(k)(1)ఃᇏ,CaPٳљіൕཌྷؓႿཨٮሱಖሧჷބሧЧؓ&࣮ᇏࡌഡՎᆴູ၂ӈඔbK&Q1K2ºK=1K,Ϝൔ(8)սೆൔ(7):2ሹིႨ֥႕ཙ༢ඔ,C>0,P>0,ડቀ9U>9U0,>0,9c9R&c=cClc(R)R10)uc(c)fc-B(r9U92U92U92U>0,0,92<0,c9R2<9k2<0bࡌഡࡅ෮ႚႵ֥ሧ9kႮൔ(2)a(3)a(9)ބ(10),֒ࣜ࠶ղ֞नޙሑЧ(ҍڶ)ಆ҆ႨটളӁ,ᄵದनሧЧჿඏٚӱ¹:ູൈ,۲ࣜ࠶эਈ֥э߄ੱޚູਬ,ࠧ༯ਙඹ۱֩ൔႋk&=f(k,r)-(n+D)k-c(2)ൈӮ৫:ఃᇏ,nіൕದ१ᄹӉ,ੱDіൕᅼࣸ,ੱrіൕളӁᇏཨݻ֥ሱಖሧჷfck-B-n-D+PTc(k)=0(11),f(g)іൕದनളӁݦඔbದनሧჷჿuc(c)ඏٚӱ:ູClc(R)uc2)(c)fc-B=0(1&k=p-rr(3)pіൕૄ௹ሧჷᄹࡆਈ,Їওሱಖᄹࡆਈބᄜളᄹࡆf(k,r)-(n+D)k-c=0(13)ਈbູਔٳ༅ࡥ߄,ࡌקૄ௹ೆളӁႨ֥ሧჷඔਈཌྷp=r=r(14)bᄵࣜ࠶۱ุིႨቋն߄:ႮՎॖ֤֞ଁี1~2:maxଁี1:ሧჷ֥ш࠽ིႨᄀն,ሧჷᄝളӁᇏ֥Ⴈ(c)+rl(c,k,RQ]uR)+PT(k-Bt)edt0ඔਈᄀഒ;ཨٮ֥ш࠽ིႨᄀն,ሧჷႨඔਈᄀ؟;ൈࡗ k&=f(k,r)-(n+D)k-ck&์གྷੱᄀ,ۚ֒௹ሧჷႨඔਈᄀ؟b=p-r൮༵ٳ༅ࣜ࠶ղ֞नޙሑൈ۲эਈᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢bՎଁีॖᆃဢࢳ:ൔ(12)эྙູrlc(R)/fcr=B,uc(c)ھႪ߄໙ีॖ০Ⴈஔหࣁࠞնᆴٚمԩ,ၹՎཨٮջ۳ࡅ֥ш࠽ིႨuc(c)ބൈࡗ์གྷੱBЌӻ҂ࡹ৫Hamiltonٚӱ:э,ᄵൔ(12)Ӯ৫,Clc(R)ᄀն,fcr္ႋᄀն,ࠧ֒ሧH=u(c)+rl(R)+PT(k)+K1[f(k,r)-ჷш࠽ིႨᄀն,ሧჷ֥ш࠽Ӂԛࣼ߶ᄀ؟»,ཌྷؓটඪ,(n+D)k-c]+K2[p-r]ሧჷೆ֞ളӁᇏ֥Ⴈਈࣼ߶ཌྷႋࡨഒ,Ⴈ۷؟֥ఃK1aK2ٳљູሧЧაሧჷ֥႕ሰࡎ,۬০ႨHamilton༢֤֞ቋႪྟ่ࡱളӁေูսሱಖሧჷࡼ൞۷ݺ֥࿊ᄴ;Clc(R)aB:҂э,uc(c)ᄀն,ᄵႵfcrᄀཬ,ࠧཨٮջট֥ш࠽ིႨᄀ9H=uc(c)-K=0 K1=uc(c)(4)91c,ۚሧჷ֥ш࠽Ӂԛᄀཬ,ളӁᇏ߶ႿႨ۷؟֥ሧჷ;¹Ч໓ԛགྷ֥эਈഈٚ၂ׄनіൕھэਈ֥э߄ੱ,ࠧھэਈؓൈࡗ၂ࢨ֝ඔbK&&K&2K&1K2=K&fdK&&r&ºK+rr,fd1fc+Kr,ਆшԢၛK2,֤rK=2Kfc+1r2Kfd&r,ႮൔK&2K&(5)K=1r1fdR=-rrr,֤K&2rrrr221fcrfcrK=1-Rr,ॉ੮ᄝनޙr2K1rሑ&rK&=1K&20,_rK=1Kb2»ᄝш࠽Бԏ־ࡨܿੰ֥ቔႨ༯,ሧჷ֥ш࠽Ӂԛᄀ؟,ཌྷႋ֥ሧჷ֥Ⴈਈᄀഒb#69#
ᇏݓದ१#ሧჷაߌ 2008୍ ֻ6௹Clc(R)auc(c)҂э,Bᄀն,ᄵႵfcrᄀཬ,ࠧൈࡗ์གྷଁี3:λׄनޙթᄝ֥сေ่ࡱ:ཨٮሧЧбቀܔੱᄀۚ,ದૌ߶჻ၩ۷؟ֹႨ֒௹֥ሧჷೆളӁ,෮նࠇཨٮቀܔ؟ሧЧაཨٮ֥ш࠽ูսੱቀܔཬbၛ֒௹ሧჷ֥Ⴈඔਈࡼ߶ᄹࡆbॖࢳູ,ၹູn,D,R,Rkູӈඔ,طᄝඌඣ҂ଁี2:नޙሑൈ,෮Ⴈ֥ሧЧਈ҂ࣇ౼थႿൈэ่ࡱ༯,֒ղ֞नޙൈfck(k*,r)Ќӻ҂э,*cࡗ์གྷੱaದ१ᄹӉੱaᅼࣸੱ,طߎ౼थႿሧЧބཨٮk*ቀܔ֥ш࠽ูսੱbն,ࠧfck(k*R*,r)-n-D-kcRk*<0,ᄵDet(T)<0bࠇ֒ՎଁีՖൔ(11)ॖ֤ԛbᄝॉ੮۱ದ෮ႚႵ֥ሧЧིؓႨ֥႕ཙൈ,नޙሧЧ҂ᆺႮൈࡗ์གྷੱaದ१ཨٮCቀܔնc(k*),ѩPTuc*ቀܔཬ,Det(T)<0္ဢ(c)ᄹӉੱބᅼࣸੱथקӮ৫b,ߎބཨٮaሧЧ֥ш࠽ིႨཌྷܱbᄝՎᇕ౦ঃ༯,ູਔົӻनޙሑ,ሧЧш࠽Ӂԛࣉ၂҄ٳ༅λׄनޙթᄝఃཌྷ໊֥ऎุྙሑbсྶҀႮൈࡗ์གྷੱބᅼࣸੱջট֥ݻၛູࠣྍ൮༵ॉҳ&c=0֥ྙྙሑ,ؓൔ(11)ັٳ:ᄹದ१Сྍᄹ֥ሧЧ,ൈߎླॉҳሧЧ෮ջটི֥dcR=k#c-1c(c)cfd(k)#udkRkkkRP>0(17)Ⴈᄹࡆb֒ሧЧཌྷؓႿཨٮ֥ш࠽ིႨᄀնൈ,ሧЧ֥Tc(k)ш࠽Ӂԛ߶ཌྷႋࡨཬࠧіൕཨٮᄹӉੱູਬ֥౷ཌႋႵᆞོ֥ੱbᄜॉ,ၩሢሧЧ֥Ⴈඔਈᄀ؟;ّᆭ,ሧЧཌྷؓႿཨٮ֥ш࠽ིႨᄀཬ,ሧЧ֥Ⴈਈᄀҳk&=0֥ྙྙሑ,ؓൔ(13)ັٳ:2ഒbdc=dcfc,dkk-(n+D)dk2=fdkk<0(18)Ⴎၛഈਆൔॖ֤ཌྷ໊1,λׄਫ਼ູࣥջႵࡰ֥ՙ3 动态分析ཌ෮ൕbЧ໓భඍ҆ٳ൞ؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ༢֥໗ٳ༅,ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ༢൞၂۱໗აѩթ֥ဆ߄༢,Ч҆ٳࡼᇶေٳ༅ሧჷჿඏ༯֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ༢֥э߄ݖӱbູਔьႿٳ༅,ᄝՎٳਆ҄টॉҳनޙ໙ี,ֻ၂҄࿊ᄴૄ୍֥ሧჷཨݻr,Ⴎൔ(14),नޙൈႵr=r=p;ֻؽ҄ॉҳᄝ࠻ק֥r༯(k**,c)֥э߄bఃᇏk*,*cູनޙᆴb༵౼*r=r,Վൈ(k*,c)֥໗ሑູൔ(11)~(13)෮ൕbႮൔ(2)ބ(9)ॉҳ(k**,c)֥э߄:&1 ሧჷჿඏ༯֥λׄनޙcPTc(k*)cd*f-PTd(k*)c-c*&=uc(c) Rkkucc*(c) Thesaddlepointequilibriumunderthek-1fck-(n+D)k-*kconditionsofresourceconstriction(15)ഈൔႷ؊2@2֥༢ඔइᆔູT,ᄵႵइᆔT֥ࠖଁี4:ཌྷؓႿԮଆ,ᄝࡆೆሧჷჿඏ่ࡱ༯,ࣜtr(T)ބྛਙൔDet(T)ູ:࠶༢नޙሑ֥ሧЧթਈཁᇷᄹࡆ;ሧჷཨݻਈቀܔtr(T)=B>0؟ൈ,नޙሑ༯֥ሧЧթਈᆴᄹն,ཨٮࡨഒ,ཨٮሧЧDeб༯ࢆbt(T)=PTc*(k*)cuc*fck(k*,r)-n-DR-k(c)R*kೂ2,ؓႿԮଆ,नޙሑൈ,fck=B+n+Dcfd+kk(k*,r)R(16)(֝സ),ၹՎ,০ႨԮଆ࣮֥ࣜ࠶༢ᄝׄE1ఃᇏղ֞नޙbؓႿЧ໓࣮֥ଆ,Ⴎൔ(11)fck=B+n+D,Rk=-kTd(k)TcູሧЧ֥ڄགܿх༢ඔ,ࡌഡ(k)҂эbइᆔ֥ࠖնႿਬ,ඪૼᇀഒႵ၂۱ֆ໊۴նႿਬ-PTc(k),ႮႿթᄝш࠽Ӂԛ־ࡨܿ,ੰՖطॉ੮ሧჷჿ,uc(c)ႮࡌഡᆩPTc(k*)fdkk(k*,r)ඏ่ࡱ༯֥ࣜ࠶༢ᄝׄE2ׄղ֞नޙሑ,ෛሢሧჷ*>0,<0,ᄵDet(T)֥ژݼuc(c)R֥Ⴈਈrᄹࡆ,Ⴎൔ(13)f(k,r)-(n+D)k=c,ᄝ၂ླٳ౦ঃษંbDet(T)>0,ࠧਆ۴ູൌ۴ູᆞ,ሧЧթਈඣഈཨٮC߶ᄹࡆ,ၹՎ&k=0౷ཌཟഈ၍नޙׄ൞҂໗ק;֥Det(T)<0,ᄵਆ۱ֆ໊۴၂ᆞ၂ڵ,ࣜ࠶ᇏթᄝλׄनޙ,ॖ֤bႻႮൔ(11)fck+PTc(k)=B+n+D,ၹູB+n+D:֞uc(c)#70#
ٜਟ֩:ሧჷჿඏაࣜ࠶ᄹӉ࣮ 2 ᇕ౦ঃ༯֥λׄनޙሑбࢠ4 ᇏݓཨٮሧЧбэ߄ -capitalratioeconomicconditionsrac/k౼ሱಖؓඔlnralnc/kbဢЧࡗ࿊౼֥൞҂э,ॉ੮ᄝ၂ሧЧթਈඣഈ,ෛሢሧჷ֥Ⴈਈr1953-2006୍,ඔऌটჷ5ྍᇏݓ୍࠹ሧਘ߸щ6ᄹࡆ,fckᄹն,ᆃൈൔ(12)Ӯ৫,uc(c)сࡼᄹն,ࠧބ୍5ᇏݓ࠹୍6bཨٮCࡨഒ,ၹՎ౷ཌ&c=0ཟႷ၍,नޙׄႮׄE2၍Ч҆ٳҐႨADFaPPaKPSSބDF-GLSဒمؓཨٮ֞ׄE3bሧჷ֥ཨݻਈ࿃ᄹࡆ,ᆃൈ౷ཌ&c=0ሧЧбaିჷཨݻሹਈࣉྛ໗ྟဒ,ൈ,ᄎႨླྀᆜ࿃ཟႷٚ၍,ཨٮሧЧб߶ࣉ၂҄ࡨཬ,λׄनޙ္(ંE-Gਆ҄م)a༂ҵྩᆞଆ(ECM)ބGrangerၹݔဒ߶ᇯࡶཟႷ༯ٚ၍(2),ՙཌູλׄनޙ֥э݅টٳ༅ཨٮሧЧбაሧჷཨݻࡗ֥ܱ༢(і1)bࠖb֒rᄹࡆ֞ቀܔ؟ൈc,ࣼ߶ࢆ֮֞၂קб২,Ⴎଁkี3,λׄनޙࡼ҂گթᄝ,ՖӉ௹টु,ࣜ࠶༢္҂߶і1 ֆ໊۴ဒࢲݔ Theresultsofunitroottestղ֞नޙሑbэਈADFဒPPဒKPSSဒ¹DF-GLSဒ4 实证检验ඣିჷཨݻሹਈ -2006୍ᇏݓିჷሹุഈЌӻਔ୍न%֥ᄹཨٮሧӉ൝Чб,ཨٮሧЧб(1953-2006୍)ᆜุഈіགྷԛٳࢨ؍־ࡨ֥หᆘ,Ֆ3a4ॖၛؿགྷ၂ࢨିჷཨ,1961-1964୍ିჷཨҵٳݻሹਈٮਈࠤख༯ࢆ,ԛགྷਔڵᄹӉ,طཨٮሧЧбಏഈശ,ཨٮሧቋۚᆴղ֞Ч҆ٳ๙ݖ࠹ਈဒটဒᆣཨٮሧЧЧббაሧჷཨݻᆭࡗّ֥ཟܱ༢bሧჷཨݻ౼Ⴈିჷཨݻ ᇿ:aіൕ1%֥ཁᇷྟඣbሹਈr(ֆ໊:ຣtѓሙિ),ཨٮሧЧбc/k౼ႨቋᇔཨٮაሧЧྙӮሹحᆭб,ູཨԢඔऌᇏթᄝၳٚҵ,ٳљؓဒࢲݔіૼ,ିჷཨݻሹਈaཨٮሧЧб֥ඣਈູ٤໗ਙ,طିჷཨݻሹਈaཨٮሧЧб֥၂ࢨҵٳᄝ1%֥ཁᇷྟඣ༯ູ໗ਙ,ဒࢲݔіૼlnralnc/k~I(1)bᄝॉ੮ؽᆀᆭࡗ൞ڎթᄝླྀᆜܱ༢ൈ,ႮႿЧ໓࣮֥൞ਆэਈᆭࡗ֥ླྀᆜܱ༢,ၹՎ০ႨEngleაGrangerิԛ֥E-Gਆ҄مࣉྛဒ,൮༵ࡹ৫ٳ҃ᇌުଆADL(1,3)ࣉྛླྀᆜ݂߭blnc/k=+ ()()+(-2)(-3)()()3 ᇏݓିჷཨٮሹਈэ߄R2= DW= T=54(1953-2006) ؓഈൔਆҧ௹ຬ,࠹ෘӉ௹नޙܱ༢:¹ KPSS֥ჰࡌഡ൞໗ࡌഡaСᄴࡌഡ൞٤໗ࡌഡb#71#
ᇏݓದ१#ሧჷაߌ 2008୍ ֻ6௹lnc/k=(19)бაିჷཨݻਈູGrangerၹݔܱ༢bିჷཨݻਈູཨtt٤नޙ༂ҵູ:ٮሧЧб֥ჰၹ,ᆃაЧ໓భඍંࢲݔ၂ᇁ;ཨٮሧЧeбູିჷཨݻਈ֥ჰၹ,ᇶေᄝႿଢభᇏݓ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉᇏt=lnc/+ؓ༂ҵཛࣉྛֆ໊۴ဒ,ࢲݔі2bሧ֥܊ངੱჹնႿཨٮ֥܊ང,ੱࣜ࠶ᄹӉᄀॹሧჷཨݻࣼ߶ᄀ؟,ൈಆഠ߶௴ђթᄝሢሧჷ֥০Ⴈིੱ,֮і2 ༂ҵཛ֥ֆ໊۴ဒࢲݔЌӻࢠॹ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱ,ሧჷ֥ཨݻਈࣼ߶ࣉ၂҄ᄹ Theresultsofunitroottestoferrorsࡆ,ၹՎཨٮሧЧбᄀ֮ሧჷཨݻᄀ؟b༂ҵཛADFဒPPဒKPSSဒDF-GLSဒі4 ཨٮሧЧбაିჷཨݻਈ֥Grangerဒࢲݔ Grangercausalitytestbetweenconsumption-capital ᇿ:aіൕ1%֥ཁᇷྟඣbratioandenergyconsumptionჰࡌഡᇌު௹ඔF࠹ਈPᆴ ADFaPPaKPSSބDF-GLSဒࢲݔіૼ,ൔ(19)֥༂ҵཛູ໗ൈ,ၹՎཨٮሧЧбაିჷཨݻሹਈࡗթିჷཨݻਈᄹࡆીႵGranger֝ᇁཨٮሧЧбࢆ֮ᄝླྀᆜܱ༢ࠧӉ௹नޙܱ༢,ିჷཨݻૄᄹࡆ1%ཨٮཨٮሧЧбࢆ֮ીႵGrangerሧЧбࡼ༯ࢆ%,ᆃაЧ໓ંଆ֤֥֞ଁี4֝ᇁିჷཨݻᄹࡆ၂ᇁbࣉ၂҄ٳ༅؋௹ொཟӉ௹नޙྩᆞ֥ࠏᇅ,ࡹ৫ECM:5 结 论nn$lnc/kt=A0+A1et-1+EA2i$lnc/kt-j+EA3i$lnrt-jj=1j=0Ч໓ᄝٳ༅۱ದིႨൈࡆೆਔഠ߶ֹ໊აሱಖሧჷႮླྀᆜٚӱ(19),۴ऌHendry֥Ֆ၂Ϯ֞ห൹ࡹଆٚᆃਆ۱ࣜ࠶ၹ,࣮ሧჷჿඏ่ࡱ༯֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ໙ีbم,ᇯࡶԢಀᄝ࠹ഈ҂ཁᇷ֥эਈb֤݂֞߭ࢲݔଆٳ༅֤ԛ,ֻ၂,ሧჷ֥ш࠽ིႨᄀཬaཨٮ֥ш࠽ིі3bႨᄀնaൈࡗ์གྷੱᄀ,ۚ֒௹ሧჷ֥Ⴈඔਈᄀ؟bֻؽ,֒௹ሧЧ֥Ⴈਈ҂ࣇ౼थႿൈࡗ์གྷੱaದ१ᄹӉі3 ECMܙ࠹ࢲݔੱaᅼࣸ,ੱߎ౼थႿሧЧაཨٮ֥ш࠽ูսੱbֻ,ཨ TheresultsofECMestimationэਈ༢ඔѓሙҵt࠹ਈٮሧЧбቀܔնࠇཨٮቀܔ؟ሧЧაཨٮ֥ш࠽ูսpੱቀܔཬ൞λׄनޙթᄝ֥сေ่ࡱbֻඹ,ؓбԮଆ,ᄝሧჷჿඏ่ࡱ༯,֒ሧჷཨݻቀܔ؟ൈ,ཨٮሧЧбࡼཁᇷ༯ࢆbൈษંഠ߶ֹ໊֥ႄೆؓࣜ࠶֥नޙྟ֥႕ཙbٳ༅֤,֞ഠ߶ֹ໊ཌྷؓႿཨٮջ۳ದૌ֥ш࠽טᆜު֥ކႪ؇-W࠹ਈིႨ҂ႋݖն,ၩሢದૌ҂ႋݖٺֹुᇗֹ໊aҍڶ,ط݂߭ѓሙ༂ҵҗҵٚބႋܝৣದૌݖࡥֆ֥ളࠃ,ܱྏࡅ๖ழႶದ֩b൞,ଢభದૌؓഠ߶ֹ໊aҍڶ֥ொݺაರऒᄹѩݖ؇ཨݻሱಖሧჷ,ᆃაλׄनޙ่ࡱӁള؛b ࢲݔཁൕ,༂ҵྩᆞཛ༢ඔູڵѩᄝ࠹ഈཁᇷ,Ч໓ൌᆣ҆ٳဒਔᇏݓሧჷཨݻაཨٮሧЧбᆭіૼھӉ௹नޙܱ༢໗קbᄝ؋௹эᇏ֒௹ିჷཨݻࡗ֥ܱ༢,০Ⴈླྀᆜဒࣉ၂҄ંᆣਔཨٮሧЧбބିਈؓཨٮሧЧбіགྷູڵཟԊࠌ,֒ᇌު2௹֥ିჷཨݻჷཨݻਈᄝӉ௹թᄝनޙܱ༢,ѩ๙ݖࡹ৫ᇏݓཨٮሧਈؓཨٮሧЧб֥Ԋࠌٚཟཌྷ,ّሹุഈुିჷཨݻਈؓЧб֥༂ҵྩᆞଆ,ॉҳਔᆃ၂ѯؓཨٮሧЧб֥ཨٮሧЧб֥႕ཙაӉ௹ቔႨ၂ᇁ,ཨٮሧЧбෛሢିჷ႕ཙbٳ༅іૼ:ିჷཨݻਈᄝӉ௹ބ؋௹ଽؓཨٮሧཨݻਈ֥ᄹࡆطࢆ֮bЧбіགྷູڵཟԊࠌ,ഈඍࢲݔაЧ໓֥ંࢲંཌྷ๙ݖླྀᆜဒა༂ҵྩᆞଆ֥ٳ༅,֤ԛᇏݓ໖ކ,္აᇏݓࣜ࠶གྷሑ၂ᇁbൈ০ႨGrangerၹݔ(1953-2006)୍ཨٮሧЧбაିჷཨݻਈᆭࡗթᄝሢླྀဒ,֤ԛᇏݓཨٮሧЧбაିჷཨݻູၹݔܱ༢bႮᆜܱ༢(і4),ෙಖླྀᆜթᄝGrangerၹݔܱ༢,ѩ҂భඍંٳ༅֤֞,ሧჷཨݻ҂ࡆၛཋᇅ,ෛሢࣜ࠶֥ିя്ԛэਈᆭࡗ֥ၹݔܱ༢֥ٚཟ,ၹՎ০ႨGrangerᄹӉ,οЧ໓֤ԛ֥ଁี4,ഠ߶ཨٮࡼࣉ၂҄ࡨഒ,ཨၹݔဒљؽᆀᆭࡗ֥ၹݔٚཟbࢲݔіૼཨٮሧЧٮሧЧб္߶࿃ࢆ֮,ཨٮሧЧб༯ࢆ,֒ղ֞၂קӱ#72#
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