- 58 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ თమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ ࡻཫ čთࣜ࠶࿐03ණđКഽնࣜ࠶აሧჷ࣮ܵ෮Ď ᅋေğమᄝӁԛ֥ٳ༅ބҩෘ൞֒ࣂޡܴࣜ࠶࣮֥၂۱ಣׄ໙ีđؓ၂۱ݓࡅބֹӉ௹ࣜ࠶ᄹӉބ؋௹ࣜ࠶໗ק֥ٳ༅ބ؎ऎႵ٤ӈᇗေ֥ၩၬbЧ໓ՖమᄝӁԛ֥ۀࢸקaҩෘٚمބҩෘൌ֩ٚ૫ؓݓଽຓ֥ཌྷܱ࣮ࣉྛਔሸކඍbთҪՑ֥మᄝӁԛ࣮ԢਔऎႵమᄝӁԛ࣮֥၂ϮၩၬຓđߎऎႵఃთห֥ᇗေၩၬđൈᄝགྷൌ࣮ᇏಯթᄝބ҂ቀđᆃུࡼఃӮູໃটమᄝӁԛ࣮֥ᇗေٚཟb ܱՍğమᄝӁԛđთమᄝӁԛđთࣜ࠶đࣜ࠶ᄹӉ మᄝӁԛ൞ടࠣ֞၂ݓӉ௹ࣜ࠶ᄹӉބ؋௹ࣜ࠶ѯ֥ᇗေۀđమᄝӁԛᄝંഈބགྷൌᇏऎႵ٤ӈᇗေ֥ၩၬbᄝંഈđమᄝӁԛ֥ܙҩູࣜ࠶ሹ܂۳ି৯֥ҩਈิ܂ਔ၂۱ሸކႵིٚمĠൈđమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘބٳ༅൞აགྷսࣜ࠶ᄹӉંࣅૡཌྷ৵֥đ൞གྷսࣜ࠶ᄹӉંᄝൌᇏ֥၂ᇕᄎႨĠՎຓđӁԛಌ१֥ܙෘॖၛٚьႿૌ്љࣜ࠶ุ֥ᇛ௹ྟ໊ᇂđՖط࣐ᄪ֥ܴҳԛమᄝ֥๙ᅮ৯čEPC,2001Ďđၛࡎ؋௹֥ޡܴࣜ࠶ᆟҦིݔbՖགྷൌটࢃđᄝ؋௹đమᄝӁԛ֥ܙҩđॖၛಒקࣜ࠶ؿᅚ෮ԩ֥ሑ(ݖಣࠇݖ)đᄝӉ௹đమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘބყҩॖၛؓࣜ࠶ุӉ௹ᄹӉ֥႕ཙၹބؿᅚ൝ቓԛ؎đՖطູᆟکᇅקؿᅚᅞิ܂၇ऌĠమᄝӁԛ֥࣮ؓ۷ܼն֥ದ္҆൞༏༏ཌྷܱ֥čDarren Gibbs đ1995Ďđหљ൞၂ུሧᆀđᄝሧթᄝሢࢠӉ֥ሧ߭Бᇛ௹֥౦ঃ༯đమᄝࣜ࠶ᄹӉሑঃࣼ߶႕ཙሧದ֥Ӊ௹ଽ֥൬ၭሑঃđՖطӮູܱᇿ֥ؓའbమᄝӁԛऎႵ٤ӈ֥ᇗေྟބگᄖྟđՖ20ൗࡀ60୍սఏđᇙ؟֥ࣜ࠶࿐ᆀބࠏܒೆնਈ֥ൈࡗ
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 59 - ބࣚ৯đՖۀ֥ࢳaٚم֥षؿၛࠣൌᇏ֥ႋႨ֩؟ҪՑ؟࢘؇ᅚष࣮đଢభၘӮູݓଽຓޡܴࣜ࠶࣮֥ಣׄ໙ีb ၂aమᄝӁԛۀ֥ࢸק ؓమᄝӁԛ֥࣮൮༵ླေؓమᄝӁԛ֥ଽݤႵૼಒ֥ࢳđൎഈቋᄪิԛమᄝӁԛčPotential OutputĎᆃ၂ۀ֥൞ૅݓࣜ࠶࿐ࡅέೣ.ύड़čOkun,A,Mđ1962Ďđ؟୍ၛটđ҂ഒ࿐ᆀؓమᄝӁԛቓਔധೆ֥࣮đؓమᄝӁԛᆃ၂ۀ၂ᆰીႵ၂۱၂طಒק֥ࢳb “మᄝӁԛ”Ֆሳ૫ഈॖࢳູ“෮Ⴕሧჷಆ҆Ⴈൈ၂۱ࣜ࠶ุ֥ቋնॖିӁԛ”đᆃᆺ൞၂۱ࢠ֥ۀđؓᆃဢ၂۱ۀॖၛႵ҂֥ऎุࢳbགྷࡼ҂࿐ᆀބࠏܒ۲ᇕࢳ݂ବđ1նᇁٳູၛ༯ਆোğ ऺضථᇶၬԮ֥ࢸק ऺضථᇶၬԮ֥మᄝӁԛࢳđটჷႿؓऺضථᇶၬࣜ࠶ᇛ௹֥ࢳđᄝࣜ࠶ᇛ௹َ֥ބཡ่ࢨ؍đࣜ࠶ุᇏٳљթᄝሢሧჷ֥ݖ؈Ⴈބሧჷ֥༽ᇂđؓ෮ԩࣜ࠶ᇛ௹֥ܴҳॖٳ༅ԛࣜ࠶ุӁԛି৯ࠣ০Ⴈሑঃbᄝऺضථᇶၬ֥మᄝӁԛંᇏđమᄝӁԛ൞ႮӉ௹ሹ܂۳ି৯थק֥đ൞෮Ⴕေԉٳ০Ⴈطॖିղ֥֞ቋնӁԛᆴđᆃ၂ቋնᆴ൞թᄝႿ၂ק֥ჿඏ่ࡱ༯֥bᆃ၂োࢳॖ݂ବູ“మᄝӁԛ൞ა໗ק֥๙ࠊளᅮཌྷ၂ᇁ֥Ӂԛඣ”đᆃ၂קၬ2Фӫֻູ၂۱ބᆇᆞ֥čgenuineĎమᄝӁԛ֥ۀb ն3҆ٳ࿐ᆀބࠏܒಪᆃ၂קၬđಖطؓᆃ၂קၬ֥ऎุ 1 ҕScacciavillani, and (1999)b 2 ҕEconomic Policy Committee of European Union (2001)b 3 మᄝӁԛ൞ᆷᄝሹླބሹ܂۳აଖ၂໗ק֥๙ᅮੱཌྷ၂ᇁ֥ሑঃ༯đ၂۱ࣜ࠶ุ֥ӁԛඣbIMF֥קၬູđమᄝӁԛّ႘ਔࣜ࠶ุ֥܂۳หྟđ൞ࣜ࠶ุᄝીႵӁള๙ࠊளᅮഈശ่֥ࡱ༯֥ॖӻ࿃֥ቋնӁԛbྍ༆ধᇏနၿྛ֥קၬğమᄝӁԛ൞၂۱ࣜ࠶ุᄝીႵ๙ࠊளᅮ৯༯֥ӁԛඣbDarren Gibbs (1995)
- 60 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ ࢳթᄝ҂bቋᄪ֥קၬটሱႿૅݓࣜ࠶࿐ࡅύड़đύड़čύड़đ1962ĎಪູđమᄝӁԛ҂൞Ⴎཋླथק֥ቋնॖିӁԛđط൞ᄝࡎ۬໗קބሱႮ൧ӆࣜ࠶֥ଢѓ༯đሹླඣղ֞ാြੱູ4%֥ඣൈ֥ቋնॖିӁԛb Ӂԛ మᄝӁԛ ሱಖാြੱ ാြੱ 1 మᄝӁԛაാြੱ֥ܱ༢ ۴ऌࣜဒܙ࠹đύड़ಪູđാြੱູ4%ൈđࣜ࠶ุࡼԩႿࡎ۬໗ק֥ԉٳࣼြ֥ሧჷԉٳ০ႨሑđՖطࡼാြੱაమᄝӁԛᆰࢤࡹ৫ܱ༢đᆃ၂ࢳޭਔস৯ඔਈնཬaन۽ቔཬൈඔၛࠣളӁིੱ֩ᄝാြੱ၂ק֥౦ঃ༯đؓమᄝӁԛႵ႕ཙ֥ၹđൈ္҂ॉ੮ሧЧթਈၹđ4नࡌഡᆃུၹ൞۳ק֥đط҂൞႕ཙэਈ b ᄝύड़קၬ֥ࠎԤഈđ҂ഒ࿐ᆀބࠏܒؿᅚਔؓమᄝӁԛ֥ࢳđ൮༵֥ؿᅚটሱႿؓమᄝӁԛᇏാြੱ֥ࢳbᄝࠊлࣜ࠶࿐ࡅغؘ.ڠ֣ણ1968୍ิԛሱಖാြੱࡌඪᆭުđሱಖാြੱđ္ӫ٤ࡆ๙ࠊளᅮാြčੱNAIRUĎ5đӮູࢳమᄝӁԛۀ֥၂۱ࢊׄ໙ีb ؓႿNAIRU֥ඔᆴ֥նཬđ۲ࠏܒބ࿐ᆀࡗႵ၂ק֥ٳఆđᄝ80୍սᇏ௹ᆭభđႮ1978 ୍ݱڠঞ-ࠉࣁථمσčHumphrey-Hawkins ActĎ ܿק֥4%֥ാြੱ၂ᆰФܼٗ 4 ҕॉOkun,A,Mč1962Ď 5 ႮႿሱಖാြੱ൞ᆷᆃဢ၂ᇕാြੱඣđॖၛົӻ໗ק֥ࠇ٤ࡆ֥๙ࠊளᅮđၹՎ္ӫູ٤ࡆ๙ࠊளᅮ֥ാြੱ(Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) ࠇࡥӫNAIRU čҕOttosen et al., 1996: p 11Ď
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 61 - ֥ಪॖđ80୍ս֞90୍սԚđNAIRU֥ඔᆴ၂ᆰФࢸקᄝ%%bૅݓݓ߶ყෘϷ܄൩ čCongressional Budget OfficeĎॉ੮ਔఃၹ֥႕ཙđ҂ᄜཋק4%֥ാြੱđࢸ6קNAIRU֥ඔᆴູ6% bؓNAIRU֥ඔᆴ֥նཬࢸק֥҂7ࡼ֝ᇁؓమᄝӁԛնཬ؎֥҂b ၛഈؓమᄝӁԛ֥ࢳ൞ࡼാြੱაమᄝӁԛᆰࢤ৳༢طקၬđՎᇕקၬޓնӱ؇ഈ൞ԛႿь০Ⴟᆟک֥ޡܴᆟҦܙđၹطջႵ၂ק֥ᆟᇍଢ֥đطॖିಌك॓࿐ၩၬbԛႿՎ໙ีđ၂ུ࿐ᆀՖ۷ಆ૫֥࢘؇קၬమᄝӁԛbૅݓࣜ࠶࿐ࡅ০ົčLevy,1963ĎקၬğమᄝӁԛ൞ᆷᄝކ໗ק֥ࡎ۬ඣ༯đႨቋࡄॖ০Ⴈ֥ඌaቋ֮ӮЧ֥ೆቆކѩሧЧބস৯֥০Ⴈੱղ֞ԉٳࣼြေ෮ିളӁԛট֥ӁބڛༀbರЧၿྛ࣮ބ࠹अč2003:p2Ď:֒ሧЧބস৯ሧჷᄝགྷႵ֥ࣜ࠶ࢲܒ༯đղ֞మᄝ֥০Ⴈඣൈ֥ࣜ࠶Ӂԛඣbᆃུࢳಆ૫ॉ੮ਔ႕ཙమᄝӁԛ֥স৯aሧЧaඌࠣᇅ؇֩ၹđ۳ԛਔ۷ಒ్طᆇൌ֥קၬb ऺضථᇶၬࣜ࠶࿐ᆀؓղ֞ቋնӁԛ่֥ࡱބݖӱॖି߶Ⴕ၂ק֥ٳఆđնุഈđऺضථᇶၬԮ֥ࢳॖ݂ବູğమᄝӁԛ൞ᄝ٤ࡆ๙ࠊளᅮඣčNon-accelerating Inflation rateĎ༯đଖ၂ࣜ࠶ุॖղ֥֞ቋնӁԛđ൞ൈॉ੮ਔࣜ࠶ุ֥܂۳ބླ֥၂۱ۀb ྍܞׅޡܴ࿐ஊ֥ࢸק ྍܞׅޡܴࣜ࠶ંčᆇൌࣜ࠶ᇛ௹ંĎğࣜ࠶ุᇏൌ࠽Ӂԛ൳܂۳ބླ܋Ԋࠌ֥႕ཙđॖࡼൌ࠽Ӂԛٳູ܂۳҆ٳބླ҆ٳbྍܞׅᇶၬమᄝӁԛ֥ࢳটჷႿఃؓ൧ӆࠎЧࡌഡđაऺضථᇶၬં҂đྍܞׅંࡌഡ൧ӆ൞ປૅ֥đՖطđླ֥эॖၛ֤Ӂԛ֤֞ࠧൈטᆜđࣜ࠶ุᇏ҂թᄝყ௹֥ླѯđᆃဢđൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥ѯᇶေႮຓᄝ֥܂۳ٚ૫čೂඌԊࠌđჰਘԊࠌ֩Ď֥٤ყ௹ѯطႄఏbၹՎđοᅶྍܞׅޡܴંđࣜ࠶ุ֥ൌ࠽Ӂԛّ႘֥൞ᄝყ௹ླડቀ֥౦ঃ༯֥ࣜ࠶ุ֥ሹ܂ 6 ҕCongressional Budget Office (1994)b 7 ؓሱಖാြੱčNAIRUĎ֥ܙෘ۷؟֥൞ҐႨ٣০௴ථ౷ཌمđॖҕॉGorden (1990), Congressional Budget Office(1994).
- 62 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ ۳ି৯đൌ࠽ӁԛЇݣਔ܂۳Ԋࠌथק֥ӻࣲӁԛބᄠൈྟ٤ყ௹ླԊࠌᇛ௹ӁԛđطՖӉ௹টࢃđᄠൈྟԊࠌႄఏ8֥Ӂԛѯ҂սіࣜ࠶ุ֥మᄝି৯đၹՎđᄝัԢ႕ཙൌ࠽Ӂԛᇏ֥ᄠൈྟԊࠌ႕ཙӮٳުđ֤֥֞ൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥Ӊ௹൝ᆴࣼսіਔࣜ࠶ุ֥మᄝӁԛbႮՎđమᄝ֥ӁԛФקၬູൌ࠽֥Ӂԛ֥൝ᆴbაՎোරమᄝӁԛ֥קၬູđሧჷᆞӈႨൈ֥ӁԛčNormal OutputĎđࠧࣜ࠶ุᄝીႵޅ٤ყ௹֥ҍᆟބࠊлᆟҦԊࠌ༯֥Ӂԛඣb ԛႿьႿҩਈބڛༀႿᆟҦᇅק֥ଢ֥đ၂ུࠏܒބ࿐ᆀࡼమᄝӁԛקၬູ൝Ӂԛčtrend outputĎb઼֣ઌčAnthony M. Santomerođ2005Ďิ֞đॉ੮֞ൌ࠽ႋႨđమᄝӁԛ๙ӈФࢳູൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥൝ඣbᇝᇏနၿྛčECBđ2005: p6ĎᄝᆳྛࠊлᆟҦᅞൈđࡼమᄝӁԛࢳູᆜ۱ᇝֹ֥൝ᄹӉđᆃູᇝᇏနၿྛܙބᇅ9קࠊлᆟҦิ܂၇ऌބҕॉb აऺضථᇶၬԮ֥ࢳཌྷбđྍܞׅં֥మᄝӁԛקၬࡹ৫ᄝ҂֥ંࠎԤഈđႮՎ߶֤֞҂֥మᄝӁԛࢲݔđྍܞׅંٳ༅ॿࡏᇏ֥ൌ࠽ӁԛᄝაమᄝӁԛޓཬ֥ொٓຶଽѯđӁԛಌ१ॖᆞॖڵđطऺضථᇶၬԮࢳ֥మᄝӁԛ֥ѯѩ҂၂קڛՖຶಡൌ࠽Ӂԛѯ֥ܿੰb ؽaమᄝӁԛҩෘٚمඍ ෛሢؓమᄝӁԛ࣮֥ರၭധೆđଢభؓమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘٚمႵඔᇕᆭ؟đ؟ဢ߄֥ҩෘٚمॖၛ՜ࣉ҂ٚمᆭࡗ֥бࢠđՖط҂؎ڿࣉđਸ਼၂ٚ૫đෛሢ۲ᇕྍඌٚم֥ႋႨđ҂ٚمᄎႨᇏӁളਔ၂ུۀ༂ࢳބᆟҦொҵbᄝՎđؓགྷႵ֥ҩෘٚمࣉྛሸކٳোбࢠbࢲކၛഈؓమᄝӁԛۀ֥ࢳđమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘٚمնᇁॖٳູোğ 8 ྍܞׅંࡼԊࠌٳູᄠൈྟԊࠌބႥࣲྟԊࠌđٳљؓႋႿླ҆ٳބ܂۳҆ٳbᄠൈྟԊࠌॖିЇও୍Ӯ҂ݺaᆟکᆦԛ֥ਢൈᄹࡆaࠊл֥э߄bҕॉğIris Claus, Paul Conway, Alasdair Scott (2000: p7). 9 ҕॉAlberto Musso and Thomas Westermann (2005)
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 63 - ࣜ࠶ࢲܒ֥ٚمğ ᆃ൞၂োაऺضථᇶၬંཌྷؓႋ֥ҩෘٚمđھোٚمन൞ࡹ৫ᄝ၂ק֥ࣜ࠶ܱ༢֥ࠎԤഈ֥đᄝ၂ק֥ჿඏ่ࡱ༯đࡹ৫ေೆაӁԛࡗ֥ܱ༢đՖطؓమᄝӁԛቓԛܙෘbھোٚم֥Ⴊׄ൞đა၂ק֥ࣜ࠶ંཌྷ৳༢đࣜ࠶ݣၬ఼đՖطЌᆣਔҩෘࢲݔ֥॓࿐ྟbಌׄ൞ؓඔऌ֥ᆇൌྟބႵིྟေࢠۚđႵུඔऌ҂ၞࠆ֤bھোٚمऎุЇওၛ༯ࠫᇕğ ύड़קੰ֥ٚمğ ᆃ၂ٚم൞ύड़ቋ༵ิԛѩႨ֥၂ᇕ֤ܼ֞ٗႨ֥ٚمđ๙ݖࣜဒٳ༅đࡼӁԛಌ१აാြੱಌ१ࡹ৫б২***ܱ༢ğčU-UĎ= -α(Y-Y) ఃᇏđUູൌ࠽ാြੱđUູtttt*ሱಖാြੱđY ູൌ࠽ӁԛđYູమᄝӁԛđՖطܙෘమtᄝӁԛbᆃ၂ٚمᄎႨൈ֥ׄᄝႿሱಖാြੱඔᆴބਆಌ१б২ᆴ֥ಒקb Ӂԛ-ሧЧбੱ֥ٚمğ ๙ݖࡌഡӁԛ-ሧЧ֥໗ק֥б২ܱ༢đࡹ৫ೂ༯ܱ༢đQ/K=α+αTđ๙ݖܴҩӁԛ-ሧЧб২֥э߄টಒקൌ࠽Ӂtt01ԛؓమᄝӁԛ֥ொbՎᇕٚم֥ׄᄝႿ໗קб২ᆴ֥ಒקބሧЧթਈඔऌ֥ҩෘb Ⴎေླݦඔ֥֚ٚمğ ๙ݖࡹ৫ሧЧčࠇস৯Ď֥ླݦඔğ*LogK=α+αLogQ*+αLogP*+αTđKູሧЧđQ*ູӻࣲt01t2t3tt൬čೆࠧమᄝӁԛĎđP*ູࡎ۬ඣđ֝ԛӁԛაሧЧčࠇtস৯Ď֥ܱ༢đࣉطܙෘమᄝӁԛbՎᇕٚم֥ׄದᄝႿඔऌ֥ॖ֤ྟࢠb ളӁݦඔمğ ളӁݦඔمॖၛुቔ൞ၛഈ۲ٚم֥ሸކđಆ૫ॉ੮ਔস৯aሧЧ֩ေ֥႕ཙb๙ݖࡹ৫ളӁݦඔଆğαβY=AKLđఃᇏYູགྷൌӁԛđLູসೆđKູሧЧttttttթਈđαaβٳљູनሧЧ֥܊ངၹሰაস৯֥܊ངၹሰđ࠹ਈ݂֤֥߭֞Ӂԛა۲ေ֥ܱ༢đᆭުࡼమᄝӁԛ
- 64 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ 10ބඌ൝ᆴսೆđьॖܙෘ၂۱ݓࡅބֹ֥మᄝӁԛbളӁݦඔمᄝ20ൗࡀੂ୍սᄝ۽ြ߄ݓࡅ֤ܼ֞ٗႨb Ֆࣜ࠶ંഈࢃđളӁݦඔمಆ૫ࢲކބุགྷਔࣜ࠶ᄹӉંđႵޓ఼֥ંࠎԤbՖ॓࿐ྟটࢃđՎٚم൞္٤ӈॖौ֥đᄝൌᇏ֤֞ࢠܼ֥ٗႋႨbః໙ีބ҂ቀ൞ھٚمؓඔऌ֥ေࢠۚđളӁݦඔᇏ֥၂ུэਈགྷӮඔऌđླေܙෘđೂሧЧթਈa٤ࡆ๙ᅮാြੱၛࠣඌඣ֩đطܙෘݖӱ၂Ϯࢠູگᄖđܙෘ֥ሙಒྟބᆇൌྟ္Ⴕրิۚb ൝࠹ٳ༅مğ ᆃ൞၂োაྍܞׅޡܴࣜ࠶ંཌྷؓႋ֥ҩෘٚمđՎোٚمđ҂ॉ੮эਈࡗ֥ࣜ࠶ܱ༢đҐႨ۲ᇕ࠹ބ࠹ਈ11ඌđัԢൌ࠽Ӂԛᇏ֥ᄠൈྟӮٳđ֤֞ൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥൝ᆴđၛՎটܙෘమᄝӁԛbՎোٚمႪׄ൞ؓඔऌေ֮đ၂Ϯᆺླൌ࠽Ӂԛᆴࠧॖđඔऌࢠၞࠆ֤ᆇൌྟႵЌᆣđಌׄ൞ಌكࣜ࠶ݣၬđ҂০Ⴟؓࢲݔ֥ࣜ࠶ٳ༅đՎຓđෛሢ۲ᇕགྷս߄֥࠹ਈ࠹൭؍֥ᄎႨđ֤ھٚمь֥ᄀট12ᄀگᄖđၛϜđႵؓమᄝӁԛҩෘԛགྷொ༂֥ॖିbࡼ۲ᇕ࠹࠹ਈٚمٳোೂ༯ğ ཌྟ൝مğ ھٚمಪູӁԛෛሢൈࡗ֥э߄іགྷԛ၂ᇕٳಒק֥൝đՖطࡹ৫ೂ༯Ӂԛބൈࡗ֥ܱ༢ğy=α+αT+uđၛ0tՎটಒקӁԛ֥൝đࠧమᄝӁԛbཌྟ൝م൞ቋࡥֆܙෘమᄝӁԛ֥ٚمđනਫ਼ࠣ࠹ෘनࡥֆॹࢮđ൞၂ᇕҩෘమᄝӁԛ֥ՙٚمđႮႿھٚمໃॉ੮ൈࡗਙඔऌ֥٤໗ྟ֥หׄđીႵॉ੮၂ུຓᄝэਈ֥႕ཙđః॓࿐ྟބᆇൌྟ൞҂ିЌᆣ֥đᄝ20ൗࡀ70୍սᆭުđьࢠഒФႨb ڂᆴ൝مğ ᆃ၂ٚم൞ύड़ቋᄪิԛѩႨ֥၂ᇕٚمđᄝ20ൗࡀੂ୍ս֤ܼ֞ٗႨbᆃ၂ٚمࡌഡൌ࠽Ӂԛਙᇏ 10 ऎุҩෘ҄ᇧҕݒ౩ຫaࡉम࿒č2004Ďb 11 ္ॖࢳູ“ᇛ௹ྟӮٳ” 12 Jean-Philippe Cotis, Jorgen Elmeskov (2003).“Estimates of potential output: Benefits and pitfalls from a policy perspective”, the CEPR conference "Dating the Euro area business cycle, " OECD, January, p2.
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 65 - ֥ڂᆴսіሢሧჷ֥ԉٳ০Ⴈđࠧࣜ࠶ղ֞మᄝӁԛđႮՎॖ০Ⴈཌྟ൝ෘ٤ڂᆴൈख़֥మᄝӁԛᆴbᆃ၂ٚمᄝႋႨഈႵ၂ק֥ಌׄğϜڂᆴࡌഡູሧჷ֥ԉٳ০ႨႵޓ఼֥ᇶܴྟĠཌྟ൝֥ҩޭਔమᄝӁԛॖି֥ѯྟĠమᄝӁԛ൝൳ቋ࣍ڂᆴ֥႕ཙޓնđطॖି൳ಖྟ֥ࢠն႕ཙčGERALDINE SLEVINđ2001Ďb ֆэਈੲѯمğ ෛሢ࠹ਈඌࠣؓൈࡗਙඔऌٳ༅֥҂؎ധೆđ၂ུྍ֥൝ัԢඌФႋႨ֞మᄝӁԛ֥࠹ෘᇏđᆃུٚم൞֒ࣂࢠੀྛ֥ҩෘٚمđᇶေЇওၛ༯ࠫᇕٚمğ æ BNٳࢳٚمğ๙ݖؓॉ੮ൈࡗਙ֥ٳ༅đіૼགྷൌӁԛѩ҂ऎႵ၂۱ಒקྟൈࡗ൝đ֥൝Ӯٳ۷؟֥іགྷູ၂۱ෛࠏྛሼݖӱࠧֆ໊۴ݖӱđᄝᆃᇕ౦ঃ༯đ၂ུࣜ࠶࿐ࡅषฐ࣮ྍ֥ٳࢳൈࡗਙ֥ٚم.BeveridgeބNelson(1981)ิԛਔ၂ᇕࢹᇹႿARIMAٚمϜ٤໗ൈࡗਙٳࢳູ൝Ӯٳބᇛ௹ྟӮٳ֥BNٳࢳٚم, ᄝBNٳࢳٚمᇏđᄠൈྟӮٳФٳࢳູ၂۱ෛࠏྛሼݖӱބ၂۱໗ሱ݂߭ݖӱ (Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena,2000,P5)bᆃ၂ٚم߶Ӂളᄮၻᇛ௹đՖط֤ࣜ࠶ᇛ௹აൌ࠽ӁԛࡗӁളڵཌྷܱܱ༢b ç ᄝଢభႨ֥ཨԢ൝مᇏđቋੀྛ֥൞HPੲѯم13čHodrick and Prescottđ1997ĎbHPੲѯඌ֥ჰ൞๙ݖቋཬ߄ൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥ѯބᆜุဢЧ൝э߄ੱট֤൝Ӂԛᆴbࠧቋཬ߄༯ൔğ 2TT−1*2****(LnY−LnY)+λ[(LnY−LnY)−(LnY−LnY)] ∑tt∑t+1ttt−1t=1t=2*ఃᇏđYູtൈ֥ൌ࠽ӁԛđYູtൈ֥మᄝӁԛđλູtt൝טᆜ༢ඔb HPੲѯمཌྷؓႿᆭభ֥൝ัԢمऎႵޓݺ֥ൡႋྟބਲࠃྟđ൞൝ัԢمᇏቋׅ֥၂ᇕđᄝൌᇏ֤ܼ֞ٗႋႨb൞đHPੲѯඌᄝႨൈऎႵ၂ུಌׄğ൝༢ඔλᄝ҂౦ঃ༯Ⴈൈࢠ॓࿐ಒקđສສջႵᇶܴྟđطλ֥ᆴؓࢲݔႵࢠն֥႕ཙĠᄝ࠹ඌٚ૫đHP 13 Վં໓Ⴟ1980୍ປӮ۽ቔં໓đᆞൔؿіൈࡗ൞1997୍b
- 66 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ ੲѯඌ֥ဢЧᇔׄொҵࢠնčEnd-point biasĎđဢЧଌ௹14మᄝӁԛ֥؎ࠣໃট֥ყҩ߶൳Վொҵ֥႕ཙĠ è Baxter and King ੲѯم(1995).ğᆃᇕٚم൞၂ᇕ๙ջੲѯඌčband pass filterĎđᆃ၂ٚمࡼࣜ࠶ᇛ௹ࢸקູଖ၂ಒקੱ֥ѯđ๙ݖࡼ֮ބۚӮٳัԢط֤֞ᇏࡗ֥ࣜ࠶ᇛ௹Ӯٳđ๙ݖචшؓӫ֥၍नٚمཨԢෛࠏ൝đՖطࡗࢤ֤֞൝ྙӮٳbᆃ၂ٚم֥Ⴊׄ൞đᄝᄎႨ൞ॖၛ۴ऌੱ֥э߄طਲࠃ֥ڿэੲѯࢲܒbಌׄ൞đھٚممؓ࣍௹֥Ӂԛࣉྛҩෘđൈؓࣜ࠶ᇛ௹ᇏ15ᄠൈྟᇛ௹Ӯٳ֥ҩෘթᄝ၂ུ໙ีb é UC—वغણੲѯمğಆӫğ҂ॖӮٳ(Unobserved -component, ࡥӫUC) —वغણੲѯم,Harvey(1989)ቋ༵Ⴈᆃᇕٚمܙ࠹మᄝӁԛބӁԛಌ१,֥ࠎЧනམ൞ϜӁԛਙुቔ൞҂ॖܴҳ֥ਆ҆ٳğᇛ௹Ӯٳ(ࠧӁԛಌ१) ა֥൝Ӯٳ(ࠧమᄝӁԛ)ᆭބđఃٳࢳٚمაBNٳࢳٚم൞ཌྷ֥đਆᆀ֥љᄝႿđUCمࡌקᇛ௹Ӯٳა൝Ӯٳ൞৫҂ཌྷܱ֥ਆ۱҆ٳđطBNٳࢳٚمࡌקਆᆀཌྷܱb๙ݖࡹ৫ሑॢࡗٚӱđಖުႨवغણੲѯمބቋնරಖ16ܙ࠹مটҩෘమᄝӁԛb ऺضථᇶၬંაྍܞׅંཌྷࢲކ֥ҩෘٚم ॉ੮֞൝࠹مಌكࣜ࠶ݣၬ֥ಌׄđ၂ུ࿐ᆀ൫ᄝՎࠎԤഈᄹࡆ၂ུࣜ࠶ྐ༏đၛҩෘٚمݣၬ۷఼đᇶေЇওၛ༯ਆᇕğ æ οᅶLatxtonބTetlowč1992Ď֥ࡹၰđᄝ௴๙֥ੲѯඌčHPੲѯaवغણੲѯĎ֥ࠎԤഈđႄೆ٣০௴ථ౷ཌčॉ੮ࡎ۬ބӁԛ֥ܱ༢Ďࠇύड़קੰ౷ཌčॉ੮ാြੱބӁԛ֥ܱ༢Ď֩đࡼൌ࠽Ӂԛ֥ٳࢳఃٚӱ֥ܙ࠹٢ᄝ၂ఏൈࣉྛđᄝ০Ⴈ࠹ඌ֥ൈᄹࡆਔࣜ࠶ݣၬ,Վٚم္ӫ؟эਈੲѯمbᆃ၂ٚمཌྷؓႿՂ࠹ٚمطđႵਔ၂ק֥ࣜ࠶ݣၬđ൞ѩ҂іૼՎٚم၂קႪႿֻ 14 Ⴊಌׄٚ૫ऎุॖҕॉBarrell and Sefton (1995) ၛࠣ Coe and McDermott (1997). 15 ҕॉJean-Philippe Cotis, Jorgen Elmeskov (2003). 16 ਾќđᅦ߈ౢč2001Ďb
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 67 - 17ؽোٚمđHPੲѯඌᄝࣜ࠶ุᇏ܂۳ᇶ֝ൈေ۷Ⴕིb ç ࢲܒཟਈሱ݂߭ଆčSVARĎğᆃ၂ٚم൞Blanchard-Quah(1989)ቋᄪิԛđૌ๙ݖᄝӁԛބാြэਈࣜ࠶ݣၬ֥ࠎԤഈđ০Ⴈ࠹ٚمࡹ৫ཟਈሱ݂߭ٚӱđၛՎܙෘӁԛ֥൝ӮٳbKing et (1991)a Bayoumi and Eichengreen(1992)ၛࠣClarida and Gali(1994) ؿᅚਔᆃ၂ٚمbՖ࠹ഈुđᆃ၂ٚم҂թᄝᇔׄဢЧொҵ໙ีđᄎႨࢠਲࠃbൈđՎᇕٚم֥ᄎႨߎթᄝ၂ק֥ބ໙ีğᆃ၂ٚمᄝᄎႨഈႵ၂ק֥ൡႋྟđေॉ੮٣০௴ථ౷ཌބύड़קੰ౷ཌᄝ၂ݓࡅބֹ֥ൡႨྟĠႮႿթᄝ്љ໙18ีđVARٚمѩ၂קିّ֤֞႘భิࡌഡ֥ࢲݔb ཬࢲ ၛഈ֥োٚمЇݣਔൎഈ࠹ෘమᄝӁԛ֥ն҆ٳٚمbՖٳোഈটࢃđᇕٳোٚمѩ҂൞ध֥ؓđᄝൌႋႨᇏđᇕٚمᆭࡗ൞Ⴕ৳༢֥đᄝႨ၂ᇕٚمൈđॖିླေࢲކਸ਼၂ᇕٚمđ২ೂđളӁݦඔمᇏඌэਈҩෘൈေႨ֞ੲѯඌbՖٚمႪਜྟটࢃđؓႿোٚمđૄ၂োٚمႵሱദ֥ႪಌׄđીႵଧ၂োٚمေ۷ႪႿਸ਼၂ᇕđؓٚمႪਜ֥ࡎ۷؟֥൞၂۱ࣜဒ໙ีđླေ֥ൌᇏಀбࢠٳ༅đؓႿᆟҦᇅקᆀটඪđ҂ିປಆ၇ঠႿ၂ᇕٚم֥ҩෘࢲݔb aమᄝӁԛҩෘൌඍ ؓႿၛഈোٚمđݓଽຓ֥նਈ֥࿐ᆀބࠏܒᄝ҂֥ݓࡅބֹࣉྛൌҩෘđؓ҂֥ҩෘٚمࣉྛбࢠٳ༅đൈڛༀႿᆟکᆟҦ֥ᇅקބᆳྛb ݓຓమᄝӁԛҩෘൌ ݓຓؓమᄝӁԛҩෘႿύड़č1962ĎؓૅݓమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘđᆭުնਈ࿐ᆀҩෘਔ҂ݓࡅ֥మᄝӁԛđArtus, J 17 Darren Gibbs (1995)b 18 Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena (2000)
- 68 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ R (1977)ؓ8۱۽ြ߄ݓࡅమᄝӁԛࣉྛҩෘބбࢠđDarren Gibbsč1995ĎၛࠣValerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena(2000)ٳљؓྍ༆ধބೋׅႨোٚمࣉྛమᄝӁԛҩෘb ݓຓؓమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘൌđ۷؟֥ࠢᇏᄝ၂ུܲٚቆ19ᆮbૅݓݓ߶ყෘϷ܄൩(ĨħĴđ2001)ၛڛༀႿᆟکყෘܿ߃֥ଢ֥đၛྍܞׅളӁݦඔູނྏđᄝ෬ઌࣜ࠶ᄹӉଆ֥ࠎԤҐႨളӁݦඔٚم࠹ෘѩყҩԛ1950-2010୍మᄝӁԛbႮႿളӁݦඔمିܔ്љေ֥܊ང؇đݓ࠽ࠊлࠎࣁቆᆮ(ĮIJīđ1997)ؓն҆ٳݓࡅ֥మᄝӁԛҩෘႨ္֥൞ളӁݦඔٚمbIMFࡼҩෘؓའٳູؿղ۽ြ߄ݓࡅaؿᅚᇏݓࡅބሇ݅ݓࡅোđૌಪູؓ҂ো֥ݓࡅ۲ᇕٚمऎႵ҂֥ൡႨྟđؓؿղݓࡅॖၛႨളӁݦඔمđطؿᅚᇏݓࡅބሇ݅ݓࡅႮႿࣜ࠶ᇅ؇ࠣඔऌཋᇅളӁݦඔم֥Ⴈေ൳֞ཋᇅbࣜ࠶ކቔაؿᅚቆᆮ(ĴĪĨĩ)ႨაĨħĴཌྷ֥ٚمؓĴĪĨĩݓࡅ֥మᄝӁԛቓ20ԛܙෘ,ѩק௹܄҃bૐᆟҦჴ߶čEconomic Policy Committee,2001Ďᄝॉ੮ᆜ۱ૐთଽᆟҦ֥၂ᇁྟބૼྟ֩ࠎԤഈđषؿਔڿࣉ֥ളӁݦඔمႨႿమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘb Ֆഈ૫֥ࢺകॖၛुԛ,ၛࣜ࠶ંູ၇ऌ֥ളӁݦඔم൞ݓຓܲٚቆᆮ௴ђಪ֥ٚمbਸ਼ຓđ္Ⴕ၂ུ࣮ࠏܒႨֻؽᇕބֻᇕٚمࣉྛܙෘđᆃᇶေ൞൳ཋႿඪҩෘݓࡅބֹඔऌ९֥ٓຶބႵིྟb ݓଽమᄝӁԛҩෘൌ ؓႿݓ֥మᄝӁԛ֥࣮ཌྷؓႿݓຓఏ҄ࢠພđᄝ୍࣍ࠫটđၘႵޓ؟࿐ᆀቓݖҩෘ࣮đૌٳљႨ҂֥ٚمđؓ҂ൈࡗ؍֥మᄝӁԛቓਔҩෘđགྷࡼҩෘൌሹࢲਙіೂ༯ğ 19 CBO (2001)ཌྷؓႿ1995ϱЧđႵ၂קڿࣉb 20 ॖҕॉOECD Economic Outlook (2002)b
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 69 - і1 ݓଽమᄝӁԛҩෘൌሹࢲਙі ቔᆀ/୍ٺ ყҩٚم ყҩൈ௹ყҩࢲݔ ഫ০ള 1999 ႨളӁݦඔمࣉྛҕ1980 j1990 ୍a“ݓమᄝࣜඔܙ࠹đᄝՎࠎԤഈܙෘ1991j1998୍a࠶ᄹӉੱэ1978-1998୍మᄝӁԛđ1999 j2010୍đᆃ1978-1998൝ܙ࠹” ѩ๙ݖؓຓളэਈčሧЧ۱ൈ௹֥మᄝGDP ᄹ1999-2010uඔਈࣜ࠶թਈބস৯Ď֥ყҩটӉੱٳљູ%aඌࣜ࠶࣮vყҩ1999-2010֥మᄝӁ%%b ԛb ࢳૼ ളӁݦඔم 2000୍—2005୍đ2000 ࡌקໃট5୍đݓ֥ಆݓGDPమᄝᄹӉੱࡼ“ໃটݓݓေളӁੱ֥ิۚބݖղ9%ቐႷĠ2006୍ࣜ࠶ᄹӉಀ20؟୍ࠎЧཌྷ֒đ୍—2015୍đGDPమᄝ2000-2015൝ٳ༅” नᄹӉ3ĊቐႷđᄝ2006ᄹӉੱࡼղ%ቐႷb uޡܴࣜ࠶୍ܵ—2015୍ಆေളӁv ੱิ୍ۚनᄹӉ5ĊቐႷb ਾќ֩ ٳљҐႨཌྟ൝ٚمaඹᇕٚمؓݓమᄝ2001“ݓӁĭĵੲѯٚمaֆэਈሑӁԛ୍नᄹӉੱ֥ܙԛಌ१֥ܙॢࡗ—वغણੲѯٚ࠹ࢲݔٳљູ%a࠹” مބ؟эਈሑॢࡗ—%%ބ%,uࣁವ࣮vवغણੲѯٚم֩ඹᇕ࠹ဒіૼ,ҐႨֆa؟1992-2001ᇏݓದၿྛ࠹ٳ༅֥ٚمؓэਈሑॢࡗ—वغ1992-2001ࡱ֥మᄝӁԛણੲѯٚمܙ࠹ԛ֥ቓਔܙෘb మᄝӁԛބӁԛಌ१ᄝࣜ࠶ࢳഈ۷ࡆކb Խᆞ֩ ٳљҐႨေٳࢳمaڿ2000-2005୍ࡗ֥ࣜ࠶2003 ࣉളӁݦඔمaԮളӁᄹӉੱູ%%b uฐ෬ēൌݦඔمa၍ຓمބ၍——ޡܴࣜ࠶नمᇕٚمᄝ࠹2000-2005ᄎྛაט॥vਈ݂֥߭ࠎԤഈđؓݓࡅ࠹ ௹ࡗ֥మᄝࣜ࠶ᄹӉੱቓਔყҩb ݒ౩ຫ֩ ႨᇕٚمčཨԢ൝ؓ1978Ē2002ࡗ֥ᇛ “ᇏݓمaᄹӉੱෘمބളӁ௹ѯࣉྛٳ༅đѩ
- 70 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ మᄝӁԛაӁݦඔمĎؓ1978Ē2002؎1978—2002୍ࡗ֥ԛಌ१֥ܙ୍ࡗ֥మᄝӁԛࣉྛܙनమᄝӁԛᄹӉੱෘ” uࣜ࠶ෘ ູ%b ࣮v თమᄝӁԛҩෘൌ ؓ၂ݓݓଽთమᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘ൞మᄝӁԛҩෘ֥၂۱ᇗေٚ૫đთమᄝӁԛ֥ܙҩ൞మᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘٚمᄝთҩෘᇏ֥ᄎႨđູთࣜ࠶ሹ܂۳ି৯֥ҩਈิ܂ਔ၂۱ሸކႵིٚمđ္ႵᇹႿٳ༅ҩෘٚم֥ൌႨྟĠ҂ֹࣜ࠶ᄹӉమ৯֥бࢠॖၛູݓࡅᇅקთषؿᆟҦิ܂၇ऌđ๙ݖؓ҂ֹ֥మᄝӁԛҩෘު֥бࢠٳ༅đॖၛ؎ԛ҂ֹ֥ࣜ࠶ᄹӉమ৯ᄝಆݓ໊֥ᇂđՖطڛༀႿݓࡅᆟҦᇅקđ՜ࣉთླྀטؿᅚbଢభݓᄝთᆃ၂ҪՑ֥ҩෘൌཌྷؓࢠഒđࣇႵ၂ུസ൧֥ࠏܒᄝቓᆃٚ૫֥21۽ቔb νߪസࣜ࠶ྐ༏ᇏྏყҩԩ (2004)۴ऌॏ҃-֡۬ঘථളӁݦඔđॉ੮স৯aሧЧބඌ֩ေ֥ቔႨđؓνߪസ1978-2003୍֥మᄝӁԛᄹӉੱࣉྛҩෘđᄝؓඌေ֥ҩෘൈđႨᄝ෬ઌଆࠎԤഈ֥HPੲѯඌđѩᄝՎࠎԤഈđყҩਔ“၂”௹ࡗνߪസࣜ࠶మᄝᄹӉੱb ࡾ༆࠹अč2003Ď۴ऌؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉమ৯֥ཋקđࡼࣜ࠶ᄹӉమ৯݂ࢲႿ۱ၹğ၂൞ሧЧೆđؽ൞স৯֥ೆđ൞ᇅ؇ࠇඌэ۪bοᅶᄹӉమ৯ყҩଆđ০ႨSAS࠹ٳ༅ೈࡱࣉྛਔᄎෘđՖყҩࢲݔुđໃট୍ࠫđࡾ༆ࣜ࠶ᄹӉమ৯୍֥नᄹᄝ%ቐႷb ້৫ూ(2004)۴ऌۅസ۽ြ߄ԩႿԚ௹ཟᇏ௹ࢨ؍ሇэ֥קྟ؎,Ֆࣜ࠶ᄹӉॢࡗaླঘaՑӁြؓĬĩĵ֥܊ངބঘ֩ࠫ۱ٚ૫ࣉྛਔٳ༅,ѩყҩਔໃট15୍ۅസࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥మ৯ބᄹӉ۬अđՖٚمഈࢃđٳ༅൞ࡹ৫ᄝקྟٳ༅֥ࠎԤഈࢲކ࠹ඔऌطࣉྛ֥b ߛᆽႧč2003ĎՖܼ༆സࣜ࠶ؿᅚࣉӱa۽ြ߄ؿᅚaݓଽຓߌaЧസᆟҦؿᅚ൝֩ࠫٚ૫קྟٳ༅đყҩყҩܼ༆ࣜ࠶ໃট18୍ᄹӉ؇ࡼЌӻۚႿಆݓ୍֥नඣ 21 ཌྷܱ֥ݓຓ࣮ॖҕॉThomas multhaup(1996)b
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 71 - đ୍नᄹӉ8%ቐႷđ่ࡱݺൈ߶۷ॹ၂ུb ඹaݓთమᄝӁԛ࣮෮૫ਢ֥໙ีބ ႮႿଢభᄝთమᄝӁԛ֥࣮ٚ૫đݓ෮ቓ֥۽ቔ҂؟đ෮ၛᄝ۲ٚ૫Ⴕޓ؟֥۽ቔႵրषᅚđᇶေࠢᇏᄝ22ၛ༯ਆٚ૫ğ თమᄝӁԛٳ༅ބҩෘٚ૫ ଢభđݓଽֹؓమᄝӁԛ֥࣮۷؟֥൞Ֆקྟٳ༅֥࢘؇টࣉྛđӉჹটुđֹమᄝӁԛ֥࣮ࡼླေ۷؟֥ࡹ৫ᄝඔਈ߄࣮֥ࠎԤഈbᄝҩෘٚمഈđླေ۷؟֥ҐႨაݓ࠽ࢤ֥݅ೂഈሸඍ֥োҩෘٚمđطଢభđݓଽ࿐ᆀބࠏܒᄝᆃٚ૫đႮႿඔऌބః่ࡱ֥ཋᇅđ࣮ࢠഒb თమᄝӁԛࡎބбࢠٚ૫ ؓ၂ݓთҪՑ֥మᄝӁԛ֥ҩෘު֥၂۱ᇗေ۽ቔ൞ࣉྛбࢠٳ༅bთమᄝӁԛ֥бࢠٳ༅ؓႿᆟکಒקؿᅚᇗׄބᇅקཌྷܱᆟҦႵሢᇗေ֥ၩၬbࢀᄃބਾᏃč1991Ďᄝؓ۲ֹࣜ࠶ᄹӉ࠹ਈٳ༅֥ࠎԤഈđႨ॓aሧࣁࠣေ֩మ৯টࡹ৫ֹؿᅚమ৯ᆷඔđၛՎটޙਈбࢠთؿᅚమ৯֥֮ۚbطଢభ۷؟֥໓ངࠢᇏᄝؓ۲ֹေ֥23бࢠࠇေؓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ܊ང؇֥бࢠbࡹ৫၂۱ᄝమᄝӁԛҩෘࠎԤഈ֥༢֥మᄝӁԛбࢠุ༢൞ໃটთమᄝӁԛбࢠ࣮֥၂۱ٚཟb 22మᄝӁԛଢభ֥࣮໙ีބٚཟॖҕॉğIris Claus, Paul Conway, Alasdair Scott( 2000)b 23ॖҕॉğᅦ܊ളč2002Ďğ“ת༆ֹ҆ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ൌᆣၹؓбٳ༅” uধᇜഅ࿐ჽ࿐Бvđ2002୍ֻؽ௹Ġࣲ໓ğuᇏݓთࣜ࠶ൌᆣ࣮---ࢲܒሇэაؿᅚᅞvđᇏݓ۽ြԛϱഠđ1999୍đֻ163်b
- 72 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ ҕॉ໓ངğ [1] νߪസࣜ࠶ྐ༏ᇏྏყҩԩğ“‘၂”സࣜ࠶మᄝᄹӉੱԚ༅’”uࣜ࠶ড်vđ2004୍ֻ224௹b [2] ݒ౩ຫaࡉम࿒ğ“ᇏݓమᄝӁԛაӁԛಌ१֥ܙෘ”đuࣜ࠶࣮vđ2004୍ֻ௹b [3] ߛᆽႧğ“ໃট18୍ܼ༆ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ൝ٳ༅”đu࠹߃ა൧ӆฐ෬vđ2003୍ֻ 3 ௹b [4] ࡾ༆࠹अğ“ࡾ༆ࣜ࠶ᄹӉమ৯໙ี࣮”đuࣁವაࣜ࠶vđ2003୍ֻ5௹b [5] ࢀᄃaਾᏃğuᇏݓֹࣜ࠶ᄹӉбࢠ࣮vđୡದԛϱഠđ1991୍b [6] ཫ༆ğuޡܴࣜ࠶࿐ğሇ֥݅ᇏݓࣜ࠶vđ൮ࣜ࠶સၞն࿐ԛϱഠđ1998୍b [7] ਾќaᅦ߈ౢğ“ݓӁԛಌ१֥ܙ࠹” [J]đuࣁವ࣮vđ2001୍ֻ10௹b [8] ਾᩭğ“మᄝӁԛܙ࠹֥໓ངሸඍ”đ uൗࢸࣜ࠶࠹࣮vđ2004୍ֻ1௹b [9] ն֡ğuᇏݓခݚֹ21ൗࡀӻ࿃ؿᅚčഈĎvđ К॓࿐ඌԛϱഠđ1996୍b [10] ࣲ໓ğuᇏݓთࣜ࠶ൌᆣ࣮---ࢲܒሇэაؿᅚᅞvđᇏݓ۽ြԛϱഠđ1999୍b [11] Խᆞğuฐ෬ൌ——ޡܴࣜ࠶ᄎྛაט॥v[M]đࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠđ2003୍b [12] ཬਗ਼aً۔ğuᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ॖӻ࿃ྟvđࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠđ2000୍b [13] ້৫ూğ“ۅസ2001—2015୍ࣜ࠶ᄹӉమ৯ٳ༅”đu฿ඣྛᆟ࿐ჽ࿐Бvđ2004୍ֻ2௹b [14] ࢳૼğ“ໃটݓݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ൝ٳ༅”đuޡܴࣜ࠶ܵvđ2000୍ֻ6௹b [15] ᅦ܊ളğ“ת༆ֹ҆ࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ൌᆣၹؓбٳ༅”đuধᇜഅ࿐ჽ࿐Бvđ2002୍ֻ2௹b [16] Alberto Musso and Thomas Westermann(2005), “Assessing Potential Output Growth In the EURO Area”,OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES, ECB. [17] Bank of Japan (2003),“The Output Gap and potential growth”, QUARTERLY BULLETIN, May. [18] Barrell, R and J Sefton (1995), “Output Gaps: Some Evidence from the United Kingdom, France and Germany”, National Institute Economic Review, No. 151, February, pp. 65-73.
୍ ᄅ़ Кࣘഽٓն࿐ࣜܵ࿐़ - 73 - [19] Beveridge,S. and . Nelson(1981), “A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of 'Business Cycle'”, Journal of Monetary Economics 7(2),151-174. [20] Charles and Achwert(1979), “Potential GNP:Its measurement and significance –A dissenting opinion” ,Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. [21] Coe, . and . McDermott (1997), “Does the Gap Model Work in Asia? ”, IMF Staff Papers, (March). [22] Congressional Budget Office (1994),“Re-estimating the NAIRU”,The Economic and Budget Outlook, August. [23] Darren Gibbs(1995), “Labour Market Bulletin 1995:1”,Labor Market Bulletin,1995:1. [24] Economic Policy Committee of European Union(2001), “Report on potential output and the output gap”. [25] Gorden,R,(1990), “what is New Keynesian Economics?” Journal of Economics Literature, ,1115-1171. [26] Gordon de Brouwerč1998Ď, “ESTIMATING OUTPUT GAPS” , Reserve Bank of Australia ,. [27] Iris Claus, Paul Conway, Alasdair Scott(2000), “The Output Gap: Measurement,Comparisons and Assessment”đReserve Bank of New Zealand Research Paper No. 44đJune,. [28] Kavi Gounder Steven Morling(2000) , “Measures of potential output in Fuji” ,working paper,. [29] Levyđ.(1963),“Fiscal policy, cycles and growth”, National Industrial Conference Board. [30] OECD Economic Outlook (2002) ,“Output gaps”, June, [31] Okun,A,M, (1962), “Potential GNP : Its measurement and significances, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Session”, American Statistical Association,98-104. [32] Ottosen, Garry K. and Douglas N. Thompsonč1996Ď, “Reducing Unemployment: A Case for Government Deregulation”, Westport, Connecticut·London: Praeger Publishers. [33] Perloff, and Wachter, (1979), “A production Function-Nonaccelerating Inflation Approach to potential output” ,Carnegie –Rochester Conference Series,10, and A .H . Meltzer .Amsterdanm :North-Holland.
- 74 - ࡻཫğთమᄝӁԛ࣮ඍ [34] Scacciavillani, , “measures of potential output: An application to Israel”,IMF working paper,,1999. [35] Thomas multhaup,(1996),“regional potential output and structural unempolyment in labor markets of north rhine-westphalia”, European regional thscience association 36 European congress ETH Zurich,Switzerland. [36] Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena(2000), “Alternative methods of estimating potential output and output gap:an application to Sweden”,IMF working paper,.
