11
International Trends in
Environmental Regulations for
Vehicles
Santiago, ChileSantiago, Chile
May 13, 2008May 13, 2008
Michael P. WalshMichael P. Walsh
International ConsultantInternational Consultant
Chairman, Board of Directors,Chairman, Board of Directors,
International Council on Clean International Council on Clean
TransportationTransportation
Major Global Trends
• Environmental Concerns Increasing
– Particles
– Global Warming
• Cleaner and Cleaner Technologies Entering
Marketplace
– Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles
– Passenger Cars
– Motorcycles
• Cleaner Fuels Increasingly Critical
– Sulfur Levels Approaching Zero
– Lead Almost Gone; MMT Increasing Concern
Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988
-2002-2002
44
E:\Changhong CHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xls
Most Vehicles Are In Cities
55
One Result: Serious Health
Concerns
• WHO Concludes ~
800,000 Premature
Deaths Each Year From
Urban PM
• Numerous Studies
Consistently Link PM
With Premature Deaths,
Hospital Admissions,
Asthma Attacks, Etc.
• No Evidence of a
Threshold
• Ozone, NO2, Various
Toxics Also Serious
Health Concerns
Slide Slide 66 Source: Cohen et al, 2005
PM10 in Major cities
• Energy Demand in the Transport Sector: Annual Average Growth Rate
(%) by Region 2004 - 2030
In 2004,
94 % of transport
energy based on
fossil oil.
The share will only
slightly decrease to
93 % in 2030.
Source: IEA WEO 2006
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Background
Carbon Dioxide is Not The Whole Story!
Transportation sector priorities
1010
3 key interventions
• Fuel-efficient, low Emitting cars
• Low-carbon fuels
• Reduced vehicle-miles traveled through
congestion pricing, Bus Rapid Transit,
etc.
Slide Slide 1111
Technology Capable of Cleaning Vehicle Emissions Has Improved Dramatically
in the Past 30-40 Years
The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar
Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in
Close-coupled and Underfloor Applications
•Layered washcoat
architectures and
support materials with
high thermal stability
•Integrated HC adsorption
functions
• Mounting materials with
improved durability
• High cell density ceramic
or metallic substrates
• Insulation schemes for
heat management
Maximum Emissions Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur Fuel
Diesel Particulate Filters
Trapped PM
Cell Plugs
Exhaust
(PM, CO, HC)
Enter
Ceramic Honeycomb
Wall
Exhaust (CO2, H2O)
Out
Issues to balance:
•sulfate formation
•regeneration and back
pressure
•Fuel Economy
Reductions:
•-80 to 95% PM
•-80-100% HC, CO
•-80%+ toxins
How The Trap Functions
Typical engine exhaust mass and number
weighted size distributions shown with
alveolar deposition
from non grey..from non grey..
Gasoline and
LPG
G-DI
Conventional Diesel
1818
Current DPF Applications
Millions of cars are equipped with DPF around world
Air Tank
Urea
Tank
Catalyst Input
Temperature
Catalyst Output
Temperature
Engine
SCR Connector
ECM
Dosing Unit
J1939 (Public)
Air Solenoid
Urea Sensor
S
C
R
C
on
tr
ol
Exhaust Gas Processor
SCR Solution System Architecture
20
Emissions control system for Euro VI
Oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyst-based particulate filter and
urea-SCR with ammonia slip catalyst (ASC).
Mixer
SCR + ASCDOC
(optional)
NOx sensor
NOx
sensor
California’s ZEV History
ZEV
Regulation
PZEVs
created
CaFCP
Started
AT PZEVs
Created
ZEV Reg
Implementation
FC Buses
on-road
ZEV - Status
Goals:
– Drive development of ZEVs
– Supports bridging technologies like Hybrids
– Maximizes air quality benefits with PZEVs
Status
– PZEVs marketed by all automakers subject to the regulation, 425,000 PZEVs
sold to date
– Hybrids very successful in the marketplace, 70,000 AT PZEV hybrids sold to
date
– 100 Fuel cell vehicles being placed in California in real world demonstration
fleets
Honda Civic Hybrid AT PZEV
Near-Zero Emission Vehicles
Lifetime emissions (VOC+NOx)
Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs)
Currently 20 models for sale, including 4 HEVs
250,000 annual sales (14%) in 2005
1,000,000 sales by 2015 (55%)
Model Year VOC + NOx (kg) Reduction
1970 1900 --
2005 ‘PZEV’ 8 %
Near-Zero Emission Vehicles
•BMW 325i
•Chrysler Sebring
•Ford Focus
•Ford Fusion
•Ford Escape HEV
•Honda Accord
•Honda Civic HEV
•Honda insight HEV
•Hyundai Elantra
•Kia Spectra
•Mazda 3
•Mazda 6
•Mitsubishi Galant
•Nissan Altima
•Nissan Sentra
•Subaru Outback
•Toyota Camry
•Toyota Prius HEV
•VW Jetta
•Volvo S40
Fleet Demonstrations
100 Fuel cell light duty vehicles to
date
Up to 7 Fuel cell buses
Testing, outreach, data collection,
validation
ZEV Technology Review - CARB
Plug In Hybrids Are Emerging
Electric bikes in China, .
• China Produced Approximately 15
Million Electric bikes in 2007
• This dramatic growth has been
largely due to legislation banning
gasoline fuelled scooters and
motorcycles, introduced from 1996
onwards in several major Chinese
cities
Sources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006
Which Countries Are Getting
Clean Technologies?
• Clean Fuels
• Stringent Standards Including Advanced
Technology Mandates
• Strong Incentives
– Economic
– Other
My Global Vision For 2015
• Every New Diesel Has PM Filter & Low
NOx
• Gasoline Vehicles Approaching ZERO
Emissions
• Hybrid Technologies (Including Plug In
Hybrids) Are Mature, Widespread
Technology
• Small Battery Electric Vehicles (City)
Vehicles Widely Used
• Fuel Cell Vehicle Numbers Increasing
What Is The Situation Today in
Santiago
• Good Fuel Quality < 50 PPM Sulfur But
Not Taking Advantage of This To
Introduce Diesel Filters Widely – Should
Be Highest Priority
• Much Cleaner Gasoline Vehicles Are
Feasible, Especially With Low S in 2009
• Incentives For Hybrids Could Be
Expanded
A Short Term Plan For Santiago
• Tighten Requirements Sufficiently To
Require PM Filters on New Diesel Cars
and Buses
• Lower Diesel Sulfur to 10/15 PPM
• Introduce Euro 5 or Tier 2 Bin 5 for All
New Cars and Light Trucks
• Introduce Euro 3 For Motorcycles
• Implement ASM Based Centralized I/M
For All Light Duty Vehicles
Europe
Europe Overview
• 2007 Developments
– Light Duty Euro 5 & 6 Adopted (Too Slow But
# Added)
– Truck & Bus Euro VI Proposed By
Commission
Euro 5+ and Euro 6 Will Include 6X1011 /km Particle Number Limit
Comparison of NOx and PM regulations Comparison of NOx and PM regulations
for HD diesel vehicle among Japan, USA and Europefor HD diesel vehicle among Japan, USA and Europe
Reconciling the Diesel Engine With the Environment:Reconciling the Diesel Engine With the Environment:
A Comprehensive ApproachA Comprehensive Approach
Tier 2
Light-duty
(1999)
2007/2010
Heavy-duty
(2001)
Tier 4 diesel (2004)
Common Aspects--
• Systems approach– fuel
change enables clean
technologies
• Large environmental benefits
• Responsive to needs of States
to meet air quality goals
• Collaborative process
Highway
Nonroad Locomotive/Marine
* This figure is intended to illustrate the timeline for the final highway and nonroad diesel fuel sulfur control programs.
It is not drawn to exact scale. Refer to 40 CFR Part 80 for specific program dates.
All
Diesel
~3400 ppm
Highway
Diesel
500ppm
All Off-Highway Diesel
~3400 ppm
>80%
15 ppm
<20% 500 ppm
All
Highway
15 ppm
10/199310/1993 06/200606/2006 01/201001/2010
Highway + Nonroad Diesel Fuel Sulfur Specs*
NR, L&M Diesel
500 ppm
NR 15 ppm
6/20076/2007 6/20106/2010
HWYHWY
NRNR
L&M
500 ppm
6/20146/2014
HHF ~3400ppm
Small 15 ppm
6/20126/2012
Small & Credit
500 ppm
Small & Credit ~3400
HHF ~3400ppm
L&M 15ppm
over 3 million
40,000
lost work days
hospital
admissions
chronic bronchitis
premature deaths
number prevented annually (in 2030)
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
Health Benefits Are Tremendous!
The Benefits Far Outweigh The Costs
40,000
cost
benefit
Total Cost: $11 billionTotal Cost: $11 billion
Total Benefits: $175 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billion
0 20 40 60 80 100
Tier 4 Nonroad
2007 Heavy-duty
Highway
Tier 2 Light-duty
Highway
$ Billion Annually in 2030
30 % PZEV
“10%” Mandate
42% by volume
2 % AT PZEV11%
~1%
ZEV
ZEV Program (2012 – 2014)
Current ZEV
Program
ZEV Program
ZEV Technology Review - CARB
China
Status of Air Quality
PM10 levels in Major Chinese Cities (1999 – 2005)
NAAQS Class II PM10 limit = 100µg/m3
China’s GDP
Urbanization Rate in China
New Vehicle Sales Are Booming
No. 2 largest auto market
Crude oil prod’n & consum’n
> 40% oil import dependence
Motor Vehicle Growth Forecast
9 x
by 2025
x
by 2025
Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc
See:
China Overview
• 2007 Developments
– Euro 3 (Euro III) Standards Introduced Nationally
– Euro 4 (IV) Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008)
– 50 PPM Sulfur Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008)
– MMT Maximum Reduced From 18 to 16 Nationally and to 6 in
Beijing
– SEPA Now Ministry of Environmental Protection
• Looking Ahead
– Continue Clean Fuels Push
– Introduce Euro 4 (IV) Nationally
– Accelerate in Other Cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen,)
– Compliance Program
– Retrofits
Electric bikes in China, .
• Electric bikes in China increased
from only 40,000 in 1998 to 10
million in 2005 to ~15 in 2007
• Sales increased from about
million units in in 2004 to 10 million
units in 2005 to ~ 15 in 2007
• This dramatic growth has been
largely due to legislation banning
gasoline fuelled scooters and
motorcycles, introduced from 1996
onwards in several major Chinese
cities
• The most problematic issue with electric bikes is the use of lead acid
batteries that have high lead loss rates during the production,
manufacturing and recycling processes
Sources: Cherry, 2006; Weinert, 2006
Hong Kong’s Approach
• 1/1/2006 – New Gasoline Cars Meet Euro
4 standards
• 1/1/2006 – New Diesel Cars Meet CA
LEV2 standards
• 1/1/2007 – Light Trucks Between
tons Meet Euro 4 standards
• 10/1/2006 – New standards will be
Introduced for Trucks over tons
• ULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required;
Lower Sulfur Fuels (10 PPM) Encouraged
By Tax Policy 5454
India
Vehicle population growth in
India
Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plc
See:
x
by 2025
5 x
by 2025
New Vehicle Standards in India
• Entire Country
– Euro 2 – April 2005
– Euro 3 – April 2010
• Major Cities
– Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore,
Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur &
Agra Euro 3 in 2005 & Euro 4 in 2010
– Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles,
city public service vehicles and city commercial
vehicles
• Euro 3 From April 2005
• Euro 4 From April 2010
Brazil
Brazil
• Passenger Cars & Light Commercial Vehicles
– US EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997
– Tier 1 Phased in 2005-2007 (40/70/100%)
– FedLev in 2009 (Phase in)
– No Diesel Cars Allowed
• Heavy Duty Trucks & Buses
– Euro 3 Phased in 2004-2006
– Euro 4 in 2009
• Fuels
– See Diesel Fuel Phase In Schedule
– Gasoline S from 1000 to 400 in 2004 & to 80 in 2008
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D 2000 73% 73% 73% 63% 58% 53% 5% 5% 5% 5%
D 500 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 60% 45% 30% 15%
D 50 10% 15% 20% 35% 50% 65% 80%
% ESTIMADO DE PRODUÇÃO
ÓLEO DIESEL INTERIOR
2a BOMBA (PUMP)
ÓLEO DIESEL FERROVIÁRIO E P/ TERMOELÉTRICAS
ÓLEO DIESEL 500
ÓLEO DIESEL METROPOLITANO
ÓLEO DIESEL 50
ÓLEO DIESEL AUTOMOTIVO
Exhaust Emission Standards in Korea
Gasoline Passenger Car
- ULEV of LEV-2 standard (of CARB) applied from 2006.
- LEV 2 NMOG Standard Applied in 2009
Diesel HDV
- EURO-4 standard applied from
- EURO-V standard introduced 9/09-2011
Diesel Passenger Car
- EURO-4 starts from 2006
- EURO 5 starts from 2009
Diesel LDT
- EURO-4 applied from
- EURO 5 applied from 9/2010 to 2012
Sulfur in Fuels 1/1/2006
50 PPM Gasoline
30 PPM Diesel
Worldwide Motorcycle Emission
Regulations
Japan
III Stage (2008)
HC+NOx:~
CO: ~
China
II Stage (2004)
ECE40
HC:
NOx:
CO:
10,000 km
Europe
EU II
(2003)
ECE40
Cold Start
HC:
NOx:
CO:
EU III
(2006)
HC:
NOx:
CO:
30,000 km
(2006/2007)
ECE40
Cold Start
HC:
NOx:
CO:
12,000/24,000 km
IV Stage (2004)
ECE40
Cold Start
HC+NOx:
CO:
15,000 km
Taiwan
II Stage (2005)
IDC Cold Start
HC+NOx:
CO:
30,000 km
India
Note: I/M (Inspection and Maintenance)
Life-cycle Emission Control
The Current Situation in Santiago
• Fuel Quality
– Gasoline – 15 PPM Sulfur in 2009
– Diesel – 50 PPM Sulfur; 15 PPM in ?
• Light Duty Vehicles
– Gasoline – US Tier 1 or Euro 3
– Diesel CA Tier 1 or Euro 4
• Medium Duty Vehicles
– Tier 1 or Euro 3
• Heavy Duty Bus and Truck
– US EPA 98 or Euro III
30
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Resultados homologación diesel
EURO IV por modelo
EURO IV
EURO V
30
7 S
tat
ion
1,
6
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1,
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Diesel livianos Euro IV - NOx
Resultados homologación diesel
EURO IV por modelo
EURO IV
EURO V
Resultados homologación EPA
por modelo grs/km (CO y HC)
Tier 0, Tier 2 Bin 5 Modelos homologados bajo normas EPA
(6 de los 10 modelos más vendidos)
Corsa Plus
homologado
Euro
Tier 0
Resultados homologación EPA
por modelo gr/km (Nox)
Tier 1
Tier 2 Bin 8
Tier 2 Bin 5
Motorcycles Increasing Rapidly
110,000
90,000
70,000
50,000
30,000
10,000
-10,000
2005 2006 2007
C
an
ti
da
d
( U
)
Años de Importación
Distribucion Anual de las Importaciones de Motocicletas ( Partida 8711.) por Mercado y Cantidad ( U ),
Período Ene 2005 - Dic 2007
ASIATICO AMERICANO EUROPEO OTROS
Bellagio Principles
• Design Programs & Policies
That Reduce Conventional,
Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse
Emissions in Parallel
• Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A
System
• New Vehicle Standards for
Greenhouse Emissions &
Conventional Pollutants
Should Be Fuel Neutral
• Expect & Require Best
Technologies and Fuels
Worldwide – in Both
Industrialized and Developing
Countries
Priority #1: Reduce Diesel PM
• New Light Duty Diesel Fueled Vehicles
(Cars and Medium Trucks) Should Meet
– Tier 2 Bin 5 in 2010, or
– Euro 5 in 2010
• New Buses Should Meet Euro III Plus
Diesel Particulate Filter; After 10/15 PPM
Sulfur Fuel is Available, Either:
– US EPA 2010 or
– Euro VI
New Diesel Trucks
• City Trucks (Sticker Enforced)
– Euro III Plus Diesel Particulate Filter
• National Trucks
– Euro IV Standards
• International Trucks
– Euro III Standards
Priority #2: Reduce NOx, Other
Toxic Emissions
• Light Duty Gasoline Fueled Vehicles
Should Meet Either
– Tier 2 bin 5 in 2010 or
– Euro 5 in 2010
• Motorcycles Adopt Euro 3 Standards by
2010
Priority #3: Improve Fuel Quality
• Reduce Sulfur in Diesel Fuel to 10/15
PPM
Priority #4: Implement I/M
• ASM Loaded Test Procedure Throughout
Santiago
• Centralized Testing Facilities
• Gradually Tighter In Use Standards
Priority #5: Incentivize
Advanced Technologies
• Currently: Hybrids Get Immunity From
Annual Tax For Several Years – Shows
Great Leadership!
