훐맺뗘쟸뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쟷춬폫닮틬 ꦤꦤ뛔컷늿뾪랢햽싔뗄웴쪾 1닌镐 뚼퇴 (훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺죋뿚퇐뺿쯹 100732) 튻ꆢ틽퇔 쪵쪩컷늿뾪랢햽싔늢쟒풤웚좡뗃돉릦ꎬ짐폐튻쾵쇐뗄샭싛컊쳢탨튪볓틔뷢뻶ꎬ늢쟒룹뻝쟸폲뺭볃퓶뎤뗄샺쪷맽돌퓚뺭퇩짏ퟷ돶횤쏷ꆣ쫗쿈탨튪쳡돶뗄컊쳢쫇ꎬ뛔컷늿뗘쟸뷸탐쟣킱탔춶쓜럱닺짺킧맻ꎬ벴볓뿬룃뗘쟸뗄뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ쪵쪩컷늿뾪랢햽싔뗄쒿뗄퓚폚춨맽헾뢮뗄춶얬솦ꎬ쪹헢튻뗘쟸뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈뿬폚뚫늿뗘쟸ꎬ듓뛸퓚뺭맽튻뚨쪱볤횮뫳ꎬ뗘쟸닮뻠쟷폚쯵킡ꆣ듓뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛뗄뷇뛈살쮵ꎬ헢컞틬폚쳡돶헢퇹뗄컊쳢ꎺ틔훐맺뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸뮮럖캪쳘뗣뗄쟸폲뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ쫇럱듦퓚ퟅ튻훖쟷춬뗄쟷쫆ꆣ탂맅뗤뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛볙짨놾놨돪뻟폐뗝복뗄쳘헷ꎬ평폚뷏랢듯뗘쟸놾춶죫뇈늻랢듯뗘쟸돤풣뗃뛠ꎬ틲뛸뷏퓧폶떽놾놨돪뗝복쿖쿳ꆣ쿠랴뗘ꎬ늻랢듯뗘쟸놾놨돪뗝복쿖쿳뻍살뗃동튻킩ꎬ틲뛸뿉틔좡뗃뷏뿬뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ랢듯뗘쟸폫늻랢듯뗘쟸퓶뎤쯙뛈횮볤뗄헢룶닮틬ꎬ죧맻뗃틔놣돖튻뚨뗄쪱볤ꎬ늻랢듯뗘쟸뻍믡룏짏랢듯뗘쟸ꆣ뮻뻤뮰쮵ꎬ튻룶맺볒뗄죋뻹쫕죫퓶뎤쯙뛈폫웤죋뻹쫕죫뗄웰쪼쮮욽돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵(샽죧닎볻Barroꎬ1998)ꆣ뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛냑헢훖뿉쓜뗄쿖쿳뷐ퟶ뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쟷춬(convergence)ꆣ쿔뛸틗볻뗄쫇ꎬ횻폐떱훐맺쟸폲뺭볃퓶뎤훐듦퓚헢훖쟷춬쿖쿳쪱ꎬ컷늿뾪랢햽싔닅뿉쓜좡뗃풤웚뗄킧맻ꆣ 퓚맽좥튻뛾쪮쓪훐ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛뗄튻룶죈뗣퇐뺿랽쿲뻍쫇뷢쫍캪쪲쎴튻킩맺볒믲뗘쟸좡뗃뺭볃퓶뎤뗄돉릦ꎬ뛸쇭튻킩좴쪧냜쇋ꎬ떼훂뺭볃퓶뎤돉릦믲쪧냜뗄틲쯘쫇쪲쎴ꎬ실뫳맺볒폐쎻폐쾣췻쪵쿖룏뎬ꎬ뮻뻤뮰쮵뻍쫇ꎬ쫇럱듦퓚ퟅ뺭볃퓶뎤싊믲쫕죫쮮욽퓚맺볒뫍뗘쟸횮볤쟷춬뗄쟷쫆ꆣ튻킩뺭볃톧볒샻폃뿧맺쫽뻝ꎬ뎢쫔퇩횤쟷춬볙쮵ꆣ샽죧ꎬ낢늼삭쒪캬듄(Abramovitzꎬ1986)샻폃16룶맺볒1870-1979쓪웚볤뗄샺쪷쫽뻝ꎬ볆쯣쇋돵쪼샍뚯짺닺싊폫쯦뫳뗄샍뚯짺닺싊뇤뮯횮볤뗄뗈벶쿠맘쾵쫽(rank correlation)랢쿖퓚헢킩맺볒훐ꎬ짺닺싊듦퓚ퟅ폫떱쪱ퟮ랢듯뗄맺볒ꦤ쏀맺뺭볃뗄쟷춬쟷쫆ꆣ늻맽ꎬ헢16룶맺볒좫늿쫇컒쏇쿖퓚쯹캽뗄 1 ퟷ헟룐킻췵뗂컄캪놾컄킴ퟷ쳡릩뗄폐틦붨틩싛뫍쿠맘쇏틔벰폫붯쓋뮪뗄쳖싛ꆣ 1
랢듯맺볒ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ뫳살뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ늢쎻폐튻훖웕뇩듦퓚뗄쟷춬쿖쿳ꆣ쟷춬춨뎣횻듦퓚폚ퟮ뢻풣뗄맺볒횮볤틔벰ퟮ욶쟮뗄맺볒횮볤(Ben-Davidꎬ1998ꎻBarro and Sala-i-Martin, 1992)ꆣ죋쏇폃ꆰ쟷춬뻣샖늿ꆱ살쏨쫶헢훖럖ퟩ뇰탔훊뗄쟷춬쳘헷ꆣ퓚헢훖쟷춬뻣샖늿쓚ꎬ쟷춬춨뎣쫇뻸뛔뗄ꎬ뛸ퟮ욶쟮뗄쟷춬뻣샖늿췹췹틢캶ퟅ욶삧맺볒쿲ꆰ욶삧쿝?ꆱ뗄쟷춬ꆣ 훐맺쟸폲뺭볃퓶뎤쫇럱튲탎돉쇋헢훖ꆰ쟷춬뻣샖늿ꆱ킧펦쓘ꎿ죧맻듰낸쫇뿏뚨뗄뮰ꎬ쿠뛔욶삧뗄뗘쟸뻍폐뿉쓜쿝죫욶삧쿝?ꎬ탎돉욶삧뗄뛱탔톭뮷뛸쓑틔냚췑돶살ꎬ컷늿뾪랢햽싔뿉쓜닺짺늻쇋풤웚뗄킧맻ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇튪믘듰뗄쇭튻룶컊쳢쫇ꎬ쟷춬뻣샖늿쫇럱튻뚨쫇뻸뛔뗄ꎻ뛔폚욶삧뗘쟸살쮵ꎬ폐쎻폐냚췑욶삧쿝?뗄믺믡ꆣ탂맅뗤뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛뗄뷸튻늽퇐뺿랢쿖ꎬ쪵볊짏맣랺뗘듦퓚ퟅ튻훖쯹캽뗄ꆰ폐쳵볾쟷춬ꆱꎬ벴퓚뿘훆쇋훮죧죋솦놾뇼뢳ꆢ뒢탮싊ꆢ죋뿚퓶뎤싊뗈튻쾵쇐펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쳵볾횮뫳ꎬ룷맺뺭볃퓶뎤싊뇭쿖돶쟷춬뗄쟷쫆ꆣ샽죧ꎬ냍싞(Barroꎬ1991ꎬ1998)샻폃냼삨랢듯맺볒뫍랢햹훐맺볒퓚쓚뗄뿧맺쫽뻝ꎬ횤쪵쇋헢훖폐쳵볾쟷춬쿖쿳뗄듦퓚ꆣ웤몭틥쫇쮵ꎬ죧맻볙짨룷맺퓚죋솦놾ꆢ뒢탮쟣쿲ꆢ죋뿚퓶뎤싊ꆢ헾훎컈뚨뫍쏱훷뮯돌뛈뗈랽쏦쳵볾쫇튻퇹뗄ꎬ맺볒횮볤뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊듦퓚ퟅ쟷춬뗄쟷쫆ꆣ헢쪵볊짏쳡쪾컒쏇ꎬ볓뿬실뫳뗘쟸뗄뺭볃퓶뎤탨튪싺ퟣ쓄킩쳵볾ꎬ믲헟쮵듓쓄킩쳵볾뗄뒴퓬랽쏦ꎬ뿉틔쪵쿖뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쟷춬ꆣ 훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쪼훕듦퓚ퟅ쟸폲닮뻠ꆣ틲듋ꎬ룄룯뾪럅틔살뗄훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ룷룶뗘쟸쫇듓늻춬뗄웰뗣짏웰늽뗄ꆣ듳뛠쫽퇐뺿헟뚼랢쿖ꎬ룄룯틔살쟸폲뺭볃랢햹닮뻠늻뷶볌탸듦퓚ꎬ뛸쟒돊쿖삩듳뗄쟷쫆(쇖틣럲뗈ꎬ1998ꎻ췵짜맢뗈ꎬ1999)ꆣ헽쫇퓚헢훖놳뺰횮쿂ꎬ떳훐퇫뫍맺컱풺뻶뚨쪵쪩컷늿뾪랢햽싔ꎬ볓뿬쿠뛔실뫳뗘쟸뗄뺭볃랢햹쯙뛈ꆣ놾컄쓢춨맽뛔뻶뚨쟸폲뺭볃퓶뎤뗄틲쯘ꆢ떼훂닮틬뗄풭틲뫍쟷춬뗄쳵볾뷸탐튻킩뺭퇩퇐뺿ꎬ틔춼캪쪵쪩컷늿뾪랢햽싔쳡릩벸뗣헾닟붨틩ꆣ 뛾ꆢ룄룯틔살뗘쟸닮뻠뇤뮯뗄탍쪽 탭뛠퇐뺿헟맛달떽ꎬ룄룯틔살훐맺뗄뗘쟸랢햹닮틬ꎬ뇈뷏춻돶뗘뇭쿖퓚죽샠뗘쟸횮볤(죧쇖틣럲뗈ꎬ1998)ꆣ듓춳볆럖컶짏살뾴ꎬ헢뻍쫇쮵퓚좫맺뗄ퟜ쳥뗘쟸닮틬훐ꎬ뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍2컷늿뗘쟸횮볤닮틬뗄릱쿗쫇삩듳뗄ꆣ춨맽냑첩뛻횸쫽(Theil entropy)뷸탐럖뷢ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔냑좫맺헻쳥뗄죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗘쟸닮틬뻟쳥뗘럖뷢캪쯄룶살풴ꎺ뚫늿뗘쟸쪡볊닮틬ꎬ훐늿뗘쟸쪡볊닮틬ꎬ컷늿뗘쟸쪡볊닮틬ꎬ틔벰뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍컷늿죽샠뗘쟸횮볤뗄닮틬ꆣ춨맽뷸탐춳 2 맘폚럖뷢첩뛻횸쫽뗄랽램ꎬ쟫닎볻Shorrocks(1980)ꆣ 2
볆럖컶컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ퓚1978-1998쓪웚볤ꎬ쯦ퟅ헻쳥뗘쟸닮틬횸뇪뺭샺쇋튻룶쿈붵뗍뫳짏짽뗄맽돌뗄춬쪱ꎬ(1)뚫늿뗘쟸쓚늿죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄쪡볊닮틬뛔좫맺헻쳥뗄뗘쟸닮틬릱쿗럝뛮ퟮ듳ꎬ떫돊쿖쏷쿔뗄쿂붵쟷쫆ꎬ듓%쿂붵캪%ꎻ(2)훐늿뗘쟸쓚늿죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄쪡볊닮틬뛔좫맺헻쳥뗄뗘쟸닮틬릱쿗럝뛮뫜킡ꎬ튲돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꎻ(3)컷늿뗘쟸쓚늿죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄쪡볊닮틬뛔좫맺헻쳥뗄뗘쟸닮틬릱쿗럝뛮튲캢늻ퟣ뗀ꎬ쟒돊쿖쿠춬뗄쿂붵쟷쫆ꎻ(4)뚫훐컷죽샠뗘쟸횮볤죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵닮틬뛔좫맺헻쳥뗘쟸닮틬뗄릱쿗럝뛮뫜듳ꎬ돊쿖돶쏷쿔뗄쳡룟쟷쫆ꎬ듓%쳡룟떽%(뇭튻)ꆣ 뇭튻 죽샠뗘쟸쓚늿벰횮볤닮틬뛔헻쳥닮틬뗄릱쿗럝뛮(%) 쓪럝 뚫늿릱쿗 훐늿릱쿗 컷늿릱쿗 뗘쟸볤릱쿗 첩뛻횸쫽 .1220 .1175 .1096 .1056 .1022 .0982 .1008 .1067 .1121 .1185 쇏살풴ꎺꆶ탂훐맺컥쪮쓪춳볆쇏믣뇠ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2000ꆣ 평듋뿉틔뾴돶튻훖뻣샖늿쟷춬쟣쿲ꎬ벴뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸럖뇰탎돉뇋듋뿉틔쪶뇰뾪뗄뻣샖늿ꎬ늢퓚쓚늿탎돉쟷춬쟷쫆ꆣ뻟쳥맛달죽샠뗘쟸쓚늿뫍횮볤뗄닮틬뇤뮯탍쪽랢쿖ꎬ뚫늿뗘쟸훐뗄쓚늿쟷춬ꎬ돊쿖돶룄룯틔잰뷏랢듯뗘쟸뇤뮯뇈뷏컈뚨뛸쿠뛔실뫳뗘쟸틔뷏뿬뗄쯙뛈룏짏살뗄쳘헷ꎬ훐컷늿뗘쟸퓲뇭쿖돶룄룯틔잰쫕죫쮮욽뷏뗍뗘쟸뇤뮯뷏컈뚨뛸쿠뛔쫕죫뷏룟뗘쟸실쿂살뗄쳘헷(Lin et. Al., 1997)ꆣ헢폫뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛컄쿗훐쯹맛달떽뗄웤쯻맺볒뗄뺭 3
퇩쪮럖쿠쿳(Ben-Davidꎬ1998)ꎬ틲뛸돉캪튻훖뗤탍뗄뻣샖늿쟷춬쿖쿳ꆣ 튻냣살쮵ꎬ죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽퓚쟸폲볤뗄닮틬쫇퓶뎤싊닮틬뗄뷡맻ꆣ퓚폐맘쟷춬뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ춨뎣퇐뺿헟냑쟷춬쿖쿳쟸뇰캪죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽짏뗄쟷춬(뇭쪾캪ꛄ쟷춬)뫍뺭볃퓶뎤싊짏뗄쟷춬(뇭쪾캪ꛂ쟷춬)솽샠ꆣ룄룯틔살훐맺뗘쟸횮볤뻟폐뷏듳뗄퓶뎤싊닮틬ꎬ떼훂죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽닮틬뗄삩듳ꆣ헢튻퓶뎤싊닮틬삩듳뗄쟷쫆춬퇹랴펳퓚뚫훐컷죽샠뗘쟸횮볤ꆣ1978-1998쓪웚볤ꎬ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쓪욽뻹퓶뎤싊퓚뚫늿뗘쟸욽뻹캪%ꎬ쪡볊쓪뻹퓶뎤싊뗄뇪ힼ닮캪%ꎻ훐늿뗘쟸쓪뻹퓶뎤싊욽뻹캪%ꎬ뇪ힼ닮캪%ꎻ컷늿뗘쟸쓪뻹퓶뎤싊욽뻹캪%ꎬ뇪ힼ닮캪%ꆣ 짏쫶훐맺룄룯틔살쟸폲뺭볃퓶뎤탍쪽벰웤쳘헷ꎬ낵쪾컒쏇헢퇹튻훖쟷춬쟷쫆ꎬ벴듓좫맺살뾴ꎬ늢늻듦퓚ퟅ튻훖웕뇩뗄쟷춬쟷쫆ꎬ뛸쫇뇭쿖캪뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸쓚늿뗄쟷춬ꎬ틔벰죽샠뗘쟸횮볤뗄닮틬쟷쫆ꆣ캪쇋뷸튻늽볬퇩헢훖펡쿳ꎬ컒쏇폃죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶뎤싊뛔돵쪼쓪뛈(1978쓪)뗄죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쮮욽ퟷ튻풪믘맩ꎬ럖뇰맛달쫇럱듦퓚ퟅ좫맺ꆢ뚫늿뗘쟸ꆢ훐늿뗘쟸ꆢ컷늿뗘쟸뫍훐컷늿뗘쟸뗄쟷춬쟷쫆ꆣ뇭뛾훐뗄믘맩뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ뚫늿뗘쟸쓚늿뫍훐늿뗘쟸쓚늿뚼돊쿖쿔훸뗄쟷춬쟷쫆ꎻ좫맺뫍컷늿뗘쟸뚼쎻폐쿔쪾돶춳볆짏쿔훸뗄쟷춬쟷쫆ꎻ떫냑훐컷늿뗘쟸뫏늢웰살뾼달ꎬ쿔훸탔폐쯹쳡룟ꎬ틢캶ퟅ훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏뗄쟷춬ꎬ뛸룹뻝틔췹뗄맛달ꎬ죧맻뗄좷듦퓚훐컷늿뗘쟸뗄쟷춬뗄뮰ꎬ퓲쫇틔훐늿뗘쟸뗄쿂실캪쳘헷뗄ꆣ 뇭뛾 좫맺벰뗘쟸쓚늿뗄퓶뎤싊쟷춬볬퇩 좫맺 뚫늿 훐컷늿 훐늿 컷늿 Log(gdp78) ꎨꎩ () () () () 뷘뻠 () () () () () 쇏살풴ꎺꆶ탂훐맺컥쪮쓪춳볆쇏믣뇠ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2000ꆣ삨뫅훐뗄쫽횵캪t횵ꆣ 죽ꆢ쳵볾쟷춬뫍뻶뚨쟸폲랢햹뗄틲쯘 캪쪲쎴퓚훐맺쟸폲뺭볃탎돉쫕죫쮮욽닮틬뫍퓶뎤싊닮틬뗄춬쪱ꎬ뮹폐튻훖뻣샖늿쟷춬쿖쿳ꎿ뮻뻤뮰쮵ꎬ캪쪲쎴죽샠뗘쟸횮볤쳘뇰쫇뚫늿폫훐컷늿뗘쟸뛔뇈훐뗄랢햹닮틬ꎬ뛔훐맺쟸폲뺭볃헻쳥닮틬뗄펰쿬풽살풽듳ꎿ뫜ퟔ좻뗘ꎬ컒쏇믡틔ꆰ컯틔샠뻛ꆱ뗄쮼뾼랽램ꎬ쫔춼랢쿖퓚쟷춬뻣샖늿훐듦퓚ퟅ쓄킩릲춬뗄틲쯘ꎬퟨ낭믲듙뷸웤뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈ꎻ뛸퓚뻣샖늿횮볤폖듦퓚ퟅ쓄킩ퟮ캪믹놾뗄닮틬ꎬ잡뫃냑늻춬뗄뻣샖늿쟸뇰뾪살ꆣ틲듋ꎬ폐뇘튪냑뚫늿뗘쟸럖뇰폫훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸ퟷ캪늻춬뗄쟷춬뻣샖늿ꎬ뇈뷏웤쓚늿릲춬뗣뫍횮볤뗄닮틬뗣ꆣ듓폐쳵볾쟷춬 4
볙쮵뗄뷇뛈뾴ꎬ헢훖뇈뷏뗄뷡맻ꎬ펦룃쫇헒돶뻶뚨실뫳뗘쟸볓뿬뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쳵볾ꆣ 죋쏇쫗쿈믡맛달떽뗄쫇늻춬뻣샖늿횮볤돵쪼죋뻹쫕죫뗄늻춬ꆣ죧맻컒쏇틔룄룯틁쪼ퟷ캪뾼달뗄웰뗣ꎬ평폚쪵쪩뒫춳뗄뺭볃랢햹햽싔틑뺭탎돉쇋뗘쟸랢햹뗄뻞듳닮뻠ꎬ쯹틔듓튻뾪쪼뚫늿뗘쟸폫훐컷늿뗘쟸뻍뒦폚늻춬뗄퓶뎤웰엜쿟짏ꆣ헢쿠볌펰쿬떽죽샠뗘쟸횮볤뗄춶싊뫍뻍튵싊ꎬ틔뎣맦춶죫튪쯘뗄랽쪽펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꆣ늻맽ꎬ퓚쟷춬볙쮵뾴살ꎬ룷룶뗘쟸늻춬뗄돵쪼쫕죫쮮욽잡잡쫇닺짺쟷춬쿖쿳뗄풭틲ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵죧맻웤쯻쳵볾싺ퟣ뗄뮰ꎬ돵쪼뗣짏죋뻹쫕죫쮮욽펦룃폫쯦뫳뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ컒쏇붫벯훐폚뾼달펰쿬쟷춬킧맻뗄웤쯻틲쯘믲ꆰ쳵볾ꆱꎬ벴퓶뎤뺭볃톧볒쯹캽뗄짧믡쓜솦(Abramovitzꎬ1986)ꆣ 듓돵쪼쳵볾짏뾴ꎬ죋솦놾뇼뢳뗄닮틬쫇튻룶펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤싊뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ죋솦놾쫇퇐뺿폫뾪랢훐뗄튻훖맘볼춶죫욷ꎬ뛸뫳헟폖믡닺짺탂뗄닺욷뫍쮼쿫늢떼훂벼쫵뷸늽ꎨRomerꎬ1990ꎩꆣ웤듎ꎬ튻룶뺭볃뗄죋솦놾뗄듦솿풽룟ꎬ웤컼쫕탂닺욷뫍탂쮼쿫뗄쓜솦튲뻍풽잿(Nelson and Phelpsꎬ1966ꎩꆣ듋췢ꎬ죋솦놾뛔폚뺭볃랢햹뗄ퟷ폃뮹쳥쿖폚웤뿉쓜닺짺뗄췢틧킧펦ꎨBecker, Murphy, and Tamura, 1990ꎩꎬ죧튻룶뗘쟸뗄죋솦놾듦솿퓶볓믡붵뗍짺폽싊쮮욽뗈ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ떼훂쟷춬뗄돵쪼틲쯘늢늻뷶뷶쫇돵쪼죋뻹쫕죫닮틬ꎬ벼쫵쮮욽뗄닮틬룸폨실뫳뗘쟸뷨본뗄믺믡ꎬ틲웤톧쾰돉놾듳듳뗍폚랢듯뗘쟸뗄뾪랢돉놾뛸뿉쓜떼훂쟷춬뗄랢짺ꆣ뛸죋솦놾뇼뢳뗄돵쪼쮮욽뻶뚨쇋튻룶뗘쟸뗄헢훖톧쾰쓜솦ꆣ 죋솦놾뗄뫢솿폐뛠훖랽램ꆣ쯤좻죋솦놾냼삨뷌폽뫍붡뾵솽룶랽쏦ꎬ떫듳뛠쫽쟩뿶쿂뿉틔폃랴펳뷌폽쮮욽뗄횸뇪ퟷ캪듺샭ꆣ뿉탐뗄횸뇪냼삨킡톧뫍훐톧죫톧싊(랴펳뷌폽웕벰돌뛈)ꆢ뷌쪦폫톧짺뇈샽(랴펳뷌폽훊솿)뫍돉죋쪶ퟖ싊(랴펳뷌폽뗄뷡맻)뗈(Barroꎬ1991)ꆣ본폚뿉틔믱뗃뗄쫽뻝ꎬ컒쏇헢샯닉폃돉죋쪶ퟖ싊ퟷ캪죋솦놾뇼뢳뗄듺샭횸뇪ꆣ퓚춼튻훐ꎬ뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸믹놾짏쫇내헕듓ퟳ떽폒뗄듎탲업쇐쿂살뗄ꎬ듓훐뿉틔뾴떽1978쓪ퟷ캪돵쪼쓪럝ꎬ죽샠뗘쟸횮볤퓚죋솦놾뇼뢳짏쏦뗄닮틬ꎬ틔벰죽샠뗘쟸쓚늿퓚헢룶랽쏦뗄쿠쯆3탔ꆣ 춼튻 룷뗘쟸돵쪼뗄죋솦놾듦솿(쪶ퟖ싊%) 3 맘폚돵쪼죋솦놾듦솿퓚뚫훐컷늿횮볤닮틬뗄횱맛뇭듯ꎬ뿉틔볻뢽슼뗄춼A-1 5
898173655749413325 퓚뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸횮볤ꎬ룄룯뾪럅뷸돌듓뛸쫐뎡뮯돌뛈튲듦퓚ퟅ닮틬ꆣ80쓪듺훐웚슽탸붨솢늢뗃떽쳘쫢헾닟횧돖뗄뺭볃쳘쟸ꆢ퇘몣뗘쟸뛔췢뾪럅돇쫐뫍룷훖룷퇹뗄뺭볃뾪랢쟸ꎬ뚼캻폚뚫늿퇘몣뗘쟸ꆣ뛸샠쯆뗄룄룯뾪럅믺믡ꎬ횱떽1992쓪틔뫳닅뾪쪼쿲훐컷늿뗘쟸틆ꆣ헢늻뿉뇜쏢뗘떼훂훐컷늿뗘쟸뗄뛔췢뾪럅쮮욽뷏뗍ꎬ풴엤훃뻟폐룼뛠뒫춳쳥훆뗄쳘헷ꎬ헾뢮횴탐룼뛠뗄늻잡떱뗄횰쓜ꎬ듓뛸뺭볃킧싊뷏뗍ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ컒쏇폃뗘쟸뷸돶뿚ퟜ뛮햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈훘ퟷ캪뛔췢뾪럅돌뛈뗄듺샭횸뇪ꎬ랢쿖퓚헻룶룄룯웚볤ꎬ뚫늿뗘쟸뗄룃횸뇪짏짽럇뎣톸쯙ꎬ쟒풶풶룟폚훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸(춼뛾)ꆣ웤듎ꎬ컒쏇폃룷쪡ꆢ횱쾽쫐뫍ퟔ훎쟸헾뢮쿻럑횧돶ퟷ캪헾뢮횰쓜늻잡떱ꎬ틔벰쫐뎡믺훆엤훃풴뗄ퟷ폃늻돤럖뗄듺샭횸뇪ꎬ랢쿖헾뢮쿻럑횧돶뛮햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈훘컷늿ퟮ룟ꎬ훐늿웤듎ꎬ뚫늿ퟮ뗍ꎬ쯤좻뚼폐쳡룟뗄쟷4쫆(춼죽)ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ컒쏇폃룷뗘쟸만뚨놾탎돉ퟜ뛮폫놾탎돉ퟜ뛮(만뚨놾탎돉ퟜ뛮+듦믵5퓶볓)횮뇈듺뇭춶킧싊ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ헢룶횸뇪뗄몬틥싔캪뢴퓓튻킩ꆣ퓚룄룯뗄퓧웚ꎬ훐맺뺭볃죔좻뻟폐뫜잿뗄뛌좱뺭볃쳘헷ꎬ폐ퟣ릻뗄춶죫욷릩룸틔놣횤짺닺탨튪ퟮ캪훘튪ꎬ듦믵뛠늢늻쫇뮵쫂ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ떱쪱뚫늿뗘쟸뗄헢룶횸뇪늢늻샭쿫ꎬ듳듳뗍폚컷늿뗘쟸ꆣ떫쯦ퟅ룄룯뗄짮죫ꎬ훐맺뺭볃풽살풽풶샫뛌좱뺭볃ꎬ헢룶횸뇪풽살풽뷓뷼폚랴펳춶킧싊ꎬ뛸폫듋춬쪱뚫늿뗘쟸뗄룄뷸쫇쪮럖쏷쿔뗄ꎬ쯤좻컷늿뗘쟸죔좻ퟮ룟ꎬ좴쎻폐쏷쿔뗄룄뷸(춼쯄)ꆣ 춼뛾 뾪럅돌뛈뗄뗘쟸뇈뷏(1978-1998) 4 냍싞(Barroꎬ1991)튲쳖싛쇋헢룶횸뇪ꎬ늢뗃돶랽쿲쿠춬뗄뷡싛ꆣ 5 췵킡슳(2000)튲닉폃쇋샠쯆뗄랽램뾼달춶킧싊ꆣ 6놱뺩쳬뷲뫓놱쇉쓾짏몣붭쯕헣붭뢣붨즽뚫맣뚫즽컷쓚쏉벪쇖뫚쇺붭낲믕붭컷뫓쓏뫾놱뫾쓏쯄뒨맣컷맳훝퓆쓏컷님짂컷룊쯠쟠몣쓾쿄탂붮
5550454035302520151050197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998뚫늿뾪럅돌뛈훐늿뾪럅돌뛈컷늿뾪럅돌뛈 춼죽 헾뢮쿻럑뇈샽뗄뗘쟸뇈뷏(1978-1998) 뚫늿헾뢮쿻럑훐늿헾뢮쿻럑컷늿헾뢮쿻럑 춼쯄 춶킧싊뗄뗘쟸뇈뷏(1978-1998) 9087848178757269666360197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998뚫늿춶킧싊훐늿춶킧싊컷늿춶킧싊 7
쯄ꆢ쳵볾쟷춬뗄쪵횤벰웤뷡맻 룷뗘쟸뺭볃퓶뎤싊폫쿠펦뗄펰쿬틲쯘뗄맘쾵ꎬ뿉틔폃쿂쇐릫쪽뇭쪾ꎺ γ=α−βlog(y)+ꛗX+ε i,tii,0i,ti,tX쫇튻ퟩ뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ쯼쏇쪹뺭볃i뒦폚컈뚨ힴ첬ꆣ볙뚨α쫇퓚룷룶뗘쟸뚼늻춬뗄뷘뻠쿮ꎬi,ti6떫쫇쯼뿉틔럖뷢캪룷뗘쟸죋솦놾듦솿닮틬뫍튻룶퓚룷뗘쟸뚼쿠춬뗄뷘뻠쿮ꎺ α=α+ HK78i i0웤훐ꎬα쫇퓚룷룶뗘쟸뚼쿠춬뗄뷘뻠쿮ꎬ뛸HK78퓲랴펳쇋룷룶뗘쟸퓚돵쪼뗄죋솦놾듦i0솿랽쏦뗄닮틬ꆣ뛸뗘쟸뗄뺭볃퓶뎤뿉쓜폫헢뺭볃뗄돵쪼듦솿뫍X뚼폐맘쾵ꆣ폃폚믘맩뗄랽i,t돌쫇ꎺ γ=α+βlog(PGDP78)+βHK78+βINV+βLAB+βIEi,t0i,01i2i,t3i,t4i,t +βGOC+βOPEN+βT+ε5i,t6i,t7i,t웤훐ꎬ뗈쪽폒뇟뗄뷢쫍뇤솿럖뇰쫇돵쪼웚(1978쓪)죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(좡뛔쫽)ꎬ폃1978쓪16쯪틔짏죋뿚쪶ퟖ싊뇭쪾뗄돵쪼웚죋솦놾듦솿ꎬ폃만뚨놾탎돉ퟜ뛮햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈샽뇭쪾뗄춶싊ꎬ폃뻍튵죋뿚햼좫늿죋뿚뇈샽뇭쪾뗄뻍튵쾵쫽ꎬ폃만뚨놾탎돉ퟜ뛮폫놾탎돉ퟜ뛮횮뇈뇭쪾뗄춶킧싊ꎬ폃헾뢮쿻럑횧돶햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈샽뇭쪾뗄쫐뎡뮯돌뛈ꎬ틔벰폃뷸돶뿚ퟜ뛮햼맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뇈훘뇭쪾뗄뾪럅돌뛈ꎬT캪쪱볤쟷쫆뇤솿ꎬε캪쯦i,t믺럖늼뗄죅뚯쿮ꆣ 평폚쪹폃쇋1978-1998쓪뗄럖쪡쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝ꎬ틲듋ꎬ뇘탫듓볆솿뺭볃톧뗄뷇뛈뾼싇틔쿂솽룶틲쯘뛔맀볆쪽뿉쓜닺짺뗄펰쿬ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ평폚뗘쟸볤뗄닮틬웄캪쿔훸ꎬ틬랽닮뛔맀볆쪽뗄펰쿬쫇쿔뛸틗볻뗄ꎻ웤듎ꎬ탲쇐쿠맘튲뿉쓜떼훂맀볆쪽폐욫ꆣ컒쏇뛔OLS맀볆쪽뷸탐Durbin-Waston볬퇩튲뇭쏷ꎬ탲쇐쿠맘뗄좷듦퓚ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂샻폃OLS맀볆쪽쫇늻뫏쫊뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇볙뚨쎿튻룶쪡럝뗄쫽뻝뚼듦퓚쳘뚨뗄탲쇐쿠맘ꎬ뛸쟒쪡볊볤듦퓚틬랽닮닉폃FGLSꎨFeasible Generalized Least Squareꎩ믘맩랽램뷸탐믘맩뫳ꎬ뷡맻죧뇭죽훐뗄쒣탍I쯹쪾ꆣ캪쇋뛔뇈ꎬ튲쇐돶쇋뾼싇뗘쟸만뚨킧맻뗄쟩뿶ꎬ웤뷡맻죧쒣탍II쯹쪾ꆣ 뇭죽 뛔죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶뎤싊뷸탐믘맩뗄뷡맻 6 죧맻늻뾼싇뗘쟸볤돵쪼죋솦놾듦솿뗄닮틬ꎬ쓇쎴만뚨킧맻쒣탍뿉쓜룼쫊뫏폚놾퇐뺿뗄탨튪ꆣ맘폚쒣탍탎쪽뗄Hausman볬퇩뿉닎볻뢽슼ꆣ 8
뷢쫍뇤솿 쒣탍I 쒣탍II 쾵쫽 t횵 쾵쫽 t횵 Log(GDP78) 죋솦놾춶싊 뻍튵쾵쫽뾪럅돌뛈 헾뢮쿻럑 춶킧싊쪱볤쟷쫆 뚫늿 ꆪ ꆪ훐늿 ꆪ ꆪ 컷늿 ꆪ ꆪ뷘뻠 ꆪ ꆪ 맛달횵쫽609 609쇏살풴ꎺꆶ탂훐맺컥쪮쓪춳볆쇏믣뇠ꆷꎬ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ2000ꆣ 믘맩뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ퓚뿘훆쇋웤쯻뇤솿횮뫳ꎬ돵쪼쓪럝(1978쓪)뗄죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵폫쯦뫳뗄죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶뎤싊돊랴쿲뇤뮯맘쾵ꎬ헢쪵볊짏뻍쫇폐쳵볾뗄쟷춬ꆣ뛸ퟷ캪뿘훆뇤솿ꎬ룷뗘쟸뗄뾪럅돌뛈ꆢ돵쪼쓪럝죋솦놾뇼뢳ꆢ춶싊ꆢ뻍튵싊ꆢ춶킧싊뗈뚼듓늻춬뗄뷇뛈뛔뺭볃퓶뎤싊닺짺믽벫뗄펰쿬ꆣ헾뢮쿻럑퓲듓랴쏦펰쿬죋뻹쫕죫퓶뎤싊ꎬ헢폫샭싛뗄풤웚튲쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ튻냣죏캪ꎬ헾뢮쿻럑뇈샽풽듳ꎬ뛔쫐뎡믺훆퓬돉얤쟺뿉쓜탔튲풽듳ꎬ뛸쫐뎡믺훆뗄랢믓죧맻쫜떽펰쿬뛔폚뺭볃뗄뎤웚퓶뎤쫇늻샻뗄틲쯘ꆣ쒣탍II뾼싇쇋뚫ꆢ훐ꆢ컷죽샠뗘쟸뗄만뚨킧맻ꎬ쪵볊짏럅쯉쇋쿠춬뷘뻠뗄볙짨ꆣ죧맻웤쯻뷢쫍뇤솿쟮뺡쇋뗘쟸볤뺭볃퓶뎤싊닮틬뗄쯹폐틲쯘ꎬ쓇쎴뗘쟸탩쓢뇤솿펦룃늻쿔훸ꎬ틲듋뗘쟸탩쓢뇤솿뗄믘맩쾵쫽퓲뇭쏷ꎬ튻킩쿞훆뗘쟸볤뺭볃퓶뎤쟷춬뗄틲쯘쎻폐쓜퓚쒣탍훐뗃틔랴펳ꆣ뛸듓탩뇤솿뗄럻뫅랽쿲뾴ꎬ훐늿뫍컷늿뛔뚫늿뗘쟸쿠뇈뻟폐쏷쿔뗄퓶뎤싊쇓쫆ꆣ 훐맺룄룯틔살룷뗘쟸볤뺭볃퓶뎤뗄폐쳵볾쟷춬뮹뿉틔듓쿂쏦솽룶즢뗣춼뗄뛔뇈뗃틔횱맛뗄맛달ꆣ죧맻뷶뷶뾴룷뗘쟸1978-1998쓪뗄쓪뺭볃퓶뎤싊폫돵쪼뗄죋뻹GDPꎬ솽헟횮볤늢캴뇭쿖돶쏷쿔뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ웤쿠맘쾵쫽캪ꎻ떫죧맻볙뚨뇭죽쒣탍I훐웤쯻틲쯘늻뇤맛달뺭볃퓶뎤싊폫돵쪼죋뻹GDP뗄욫쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ퓲믡랢쿖뛾헟뷏캪쏷쿔뗄뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ욫쿠맘쾵쫽캪ꎬ죧춼컥ꎨ뛾ꎩ쯹쪾ꆣ 춼컥ꎨ튻ꎩ 룷뗘쟸돵쪼죋뻹GDP폫1978-1998욽뻹쓪퓶뎤싊 9
뺭볃퓶뎤싊 돵쪼죋뻹GDP 춼컥ꎨ뛾ꎩ룷뗘쟸돵쪼죋뻹GDP폫1978-1998욽뻹쓪퓶뎤싊뗄욫쿠맘 뺭볃퓶뎤싊 돵쪼죋뻹 컥ꆢ뷡싛폫헾닟붨틩 헽죧퓚듳뛠쫽맺볊뇈뷏퇐뺿훐닺짺뗄뷡맻튻퇹ꎬ훐맺퓚룄룯틔살뗄뗘쟸뺭볃랢햹훐ꎬ늻듦퓚웕뇩뗄쟷춬쿖쿳ꎬ좴탎돉쇋뚫늿ꆢ훐늿뫍컷늿뗘쟸죽룶쟷춬뻣샖늿ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ퓚뾼싇떽훮죧죋솦놾뇼뢳뗈펰쿬죋뻹쫕죫퓶뎤싊뗄뇤솿횮뫳ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽헢튻퓶뎤싊폫돵쪼쓪럝뗄죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵횮볤뗄랴쿲맘쾵ꎬ벴훐맺뗘쟸뺭볃랢햹훐듦퓚ퟅ폐쳵볾쟷춬ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ죧맻닉좡쫊떱뗄헾닟ꎬ컷늿뾪랢햽싔뿉틔좡뗃풤쿫뗄킧맻ꆣ헽죧죋쏇쯹풤웚뗄ꎬ듦퓚ퟅ튻쾵쇐펰쿬죋뻹쫕죫뗄퓶뎤싊뗄틲쯘ꆣ쳘뇰쫇죋솦놾뗄돵쪼뇼뢳ꎬ럇뎣쿔훸뗘폫퓶뎤싊헽쿠맘ꎬ쫇듙뷸퓶뎤쯙뛈뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ헢룶뷡맻룸컒쏇뗄웴쪾쫇ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ퓚볓뿬컷늿뗘쟸랢햹뗄맽돌 10
훐ꎬ뛔죋솦놾춶쫇훁맘훘튪뗄ꎬ쯼뿉틔뒴퓬쟸폲볤쟷춬뗄쳵볾ꎬ듯떽쪵쪩컷늿뾪랢햽싔뗄풤웚킧맻ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ듓훐컷늿뗘쟸뗄춶헾닟뷇뛈뾴ꎬ쫗쿈펦룃냑잮춶퓚뷌폽뗈듙뷸죋솦놾믽샛뗄쇬폲ꆣ뗚뛾ꎬ컒쏇뗄믘맩뷡맻뮹뇭쏷ꎬ쫇럱쓜릻룼돤럖뗘샻폃쫐뎡믺훆쫇퓬돉틔잰뗄뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐뗘쟸닮틬삩듳뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲ꆣ뮻퇔횮ꎬ죧맻퓚뷱뫳뛔훐컷늿뗘쟸뗄뾪랢늻힢훘쫐뎡믺훆뗄샻폃ꎬ뛸맽뛠뗘닉좡튻킩헾뢮룉풤쫐뎡뗄듫쪩튲쫆뇘펰쿬뾪랢킧맻ꆣ쪵쪩컷늿뾪랢햽싔늢늻뷶뷶틢캶ퟅ튪춶죫뷰ꎬ죭뮷뺳뗄붨짨뿉틔웰떽쫂냫릦놶뗄킧맻ꆣ샽죧ꎬ춨맽룄룯뾪럅ꎬ잡떱뗘뚨캻헾뢮횰쓜ꎬ삩듳쫐뎡믺훆엤훃풴뗄ퟷ폃폫랶캧ꎬ룄짆춶킧싊뗈뗈ꎬ뚼폐훺폚볓뿬죋뻹쫕죫뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ뾪럅돌뛈뗄닮틬ꎬ튲쫇퓬돉뗘쟸볤뺭볃퓶뎤닮틬뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲ꆣ풽쫇뾪럅뗄뺭볃ꎬ쫐뎡믺훆쯹랢믓뗄ퟷ폃튲풽쏷쿔ꎬ풴엤훃뗄킧싊튲풽룟ꆣ볓뿬훐컷늿뗘쟸룄룯뾪럅늽랥ꎬ튲쫇듙뷸웤뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈뗄훘튪룜룋ꆣ떫뾪럅돌뛈퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쫇평훆뛈췢짺뻶뚨뗄ꎬ틲듋튪쪵쿖뗘쟸볤뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쟷춬ꎬ쫗쿈튪ퟶ떽헾닟뗄쟷춬ꆣ 닎뾼컄쿗 Abramovitz, Moses (1986), “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind”, Journal of Economic History, Vol. XLVI, No. 2 (June), pp. 385-406. Barro, R., and Sala-i-Martin, X., (1992), “Convergence”. Journal of Political Economy, 100 (2), pp 223-251. Barro, Robert (1991), “Economic Growth in A Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. Barro, Robert (1998), “Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study”, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England: The MIT Press. Becker, G., Kevin M. Murphy and Robert Tamura (1991), “Human Capital, Fertility and Economic Growth”. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, pp. S12-37. Ben-David, D. (1998), “Convergence Clubs and Subsistence Economies”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 55, pp. 155-171. Lin, Justin Yifu, Cai Fang and Li Zhou (1997), “Social Consequences of Economic Reform in China: An Analysis of Regional Disparity in the Transition Period”, background paper for UNDP. Nelson, Richard R. and Edmund Phelps(1966) , “Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion, and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review Proceedings Vol. 56. 3. Romer, P. (1990) “Endogenous Technical Change”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, 11
-S102. Shorrocks, R. (1980), “The Class of Additively Decomposable Inequality Measures”, Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 3. 췵킡슳(2000)ꆶ훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뿉돖탸탔폫훆뛈뇤룯ꆷꎬꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚7웚ꆣ 췵짜맢ꆢ뫺낰룖(1999)ꆶ훐맺ꎺ늻욽뫢랢햹뗄헾훎뺭볃톧ꆷꎬ놱뺩ꎺ훐맺볆뮮돶냦짧ꆣ 쇖틣럲ꆢ닌镐ꆢ샮훜(1998)ꆶ훐맺뺭볃맬쪱웚뗄뗘쟸닮뻠럖컶ꆷꎬꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ 춼A-1 Theil뻸뛔쫽뗄뇤뮯1978-1998 Theil뻸뛔쫽뗄뇤뮯튲쫇뫜폐틢쮼뗄ꎬ죧춼쯹쪾돊U탍업쇐ꆣ쮵쏷냩쯦ퟅ뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ뗘쟸닮뻠뺭샺쇋쿈쯵킡퓙삩듳뗄맽돌ꆣ헢샯쏦폐쪲쎴맊쫂ꎬ짐듽뷸튻늽퇐뺿ꆣ샽죧ꎬ쫇늻쫇90쓪듺잰뗄뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽폫90쓪듺틔뫳뗄뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽폐ퟅ쒳훖놾훊뗄늻춬ꎿ뛸헽쫇헢훖늻춬떼훂쇋뛔뗘쟸닮틬뗄늻춬펰쿬ꆣ 12
춼A-2 죋솦놾돵쪼닮틬ꎨ돉죋쪶ퟖ싊ꎩ뗄뚫훐컷뇈뷏 72706866646260585654뚫늿훐늿컷늿 13
