뗚27뻭ꆡ뗚11웚12008쓪ꆡꆡ11퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconomꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol127,No11icsNov1,2008믹폚좫쫙쏼훜웚럖컶뗄뗧솦짨놸럑폃쒣탍삵병뚰1,퇮탣첦1,태킡럼2,헅ꆡ2(11훘쟬듳톧뺭볃폫릤짌맜샭톧풺,훘쟬400044;21훘쟬듳톧뗧웸릤돌톧풺,훘쟬400044)햪ꆡ튪:헫뛔컒맺릩뗧웳튵뗄쪵볊쟩뿶,붫뗧솦짨놸럑폃럖캪튻듎춶럑폃뫍퓋탐캬뮤럑폃솽늿럖,붨솢쇋뗧솦짨놸좫쫙쏼훜웚럑폃뚨솿쒣탍ꆣ헫뛔튻듎춶럑폃뗄쳘뗣,붨솢쇋믹폚쪱볤럖첯뗄튻듎춶럑폃쒣탍;헫뛔퓋탐캬뮤럑폃뎤웚랢짺뗄쳘뗣,붨솢쇋믹폚믒즫맘솪뛈좷뚨럖늼샠탍뗄퓋탐캬뮤럑폃쒣탍ꆣ춬쪱,붫솽룶럑폃쒣탍ퟛ뫏뾼싇,붨솢쇋릩뗧웳튵뗧솦짨놸좫쫙쏼훜웚럑폃쒣탍,뻝듋뿉볆쯣뗧솦짨놸좫쫙쏼훜웚ퟮ킡럑폃뫍ퟮ병쪹폃쫙쏼ꆣퟮ뫳,틔쒳뇤뗧햾ퟛ뫏ퟔ뚯뮯쿮쒿캪샽,퇩횤쇋룃쒣탍뗄폐킧탔ꆣ맘볼듊:릩뗧웳튵;좫쫙쏼훜웚럑폃;믒즫맘솪럖컶;럖늼몯쫽훐춼럖샠뫅:F40317;TM727ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2008)11-0029-04ꆡꆡ돉놾맜샭쫇웳튵맜샭폀뫣뗄훷쳢[122];돉놾맜샭폖쫇튻룶폫뺭볃ꆢ벼쫵쏜쟐맘솪뗄컊쳢,쯼뗄샭쓮뫍1ꆡ좫쫙쏼훜웚럑폃쒣탍랽램뇘탫쯦ퟅ벼쫵뺭볃쳵볾뗄뇤뮯뛸뇤룯ꆣ좫쫙쏼훜웚럑폃(lifecyclecost,LCC)맜샭쫇쒿잰뎣폃뗄돉놾맜샭랽램훷튪폐:믹폚춳볆뗄듓웳튵뗄뎤웚뺭볃킧틦돶랢,좫쏦뾼싇짨놸믲쾵춳뺭퇩램ꆢퟜ럖헋샠램ꆢ믹폚훘ퟩ벼쫵뗄돉놾맜샭랽뗄맦뮮짨볆ꆢ붨퓬ꆢ릺훃ꆢ퓋탐ꆢ캬뮤ꆢ룼탂ꆢ룄퓬,횱램ꆢ믘맩럖컶램ꆢퟷ튵돉놾램ꆢ짱뺭췸싧램뗈[327]ꆣ헢훁놨럏뗄좫맽돌,쪹LCCퟮ킡뗄튻훖샭쓮뫍랽킩랽램훷튪쫊폃폚훆퓬튵,뛸릩뗧웳튵틲웤탐튵뗄램[6]ꆣ놾컄붫룃쒣탍뇭쪾캪:쳘쫢탔,뎤웚틔살짐좱랦뫏쫊뗄뚨솿돉놾쒣탍,웤돉ꆡLLCC=AC+SCꆣ(1)놾맜샭뗄쓑뗣풴폚뗧솦짨놸듓춶붨짨떽짨놸퓋탐쪽(1)훐:튻듎춶럑폃AC쫇뗧솦짨놸뗄붨짨캬뮤쯹뻟폐뗄뎤웚탔뫍늻좷뚨탔ꆣ럑폃,냼삨뗷퇐럑ꆢ짨볆럑ꆢ붨훾릤돌럑ꆢ볠퓬럑ꆢ짨릩뗧릫쮾ퟷ캪뷰ꆢ벼쫵쏜벯탍웳튵,웤뗧솦짨놸릺훃럑ꆢ냼ힰ럑ꆢ퓋쫤럑ꆢ뿢듦럑ꆢ낲ힰ럑ꆢ죋솦놸뻟폐돵쪼춶듳ꆢ퓋탐돉놾룟ꆢ럾틛쪱볤뎤뗄쳘풴럑ꆢ짺닺쇷뚯뷰뗈;퓋탐캬뮤럑폃SC냼삨뗧솦뗣,틲듋,죧뫎쪵쿖폐킧뗄돉놾맜샭돉캪릩뗧릫쮾맘짨놸뗄죕뎣퓋탐럑ꆢ볬닢럑ꆢ캬탞럑ꆢ캬뮤럑ꆢ룼룄힢뗄붹뗣ꆣ놾컄쳡돶튻훖믹폚믒즫맘솪럖컶뗄뗧솦럑ꆢ닄쇏럑ꆢ놨럏럑폃ꆢ죋풱릤ꆢ쮰뢳ꆢ웳튵쯰쪧뫍짨놸좫쫙쏼훜웚돉놾맜샭랽램,룃랽램늻뷶뾼싇뗧짧믡쯰쪧뗈ꆣ솦짨놸뗄튻듎춶럑폃,뮹냑짨놸뗄퓋탐캬뮤럑폃좷뚨좫쫙쏼훜웚돉놾뗄쒿뗄쫇붫좫쫙쏼훜웚돉쓉죫떽돉놾맜샭뗄헻룶맽돌횮훐,틔ퟜ럑폃ퟮ뗍캪놾ힼ좷럖첯ꆣ틲듋,쪽(1)뿉뇭쪾캪쮲쪱횵뗄탎쪽:쒿뇪뷸탐럖컶ꆣ웤훐,튻듎춶럑폃평뻹횵볆쯣,퓋ꆡLLCC(t)=AC(t)+SC(t)(2)탐캬뮤럑폃닉폃믒즫맘솪럖컶램볆쯣ꆣ쪹폃믒즫맘춼1쿔쪾쇋튻듎춶럑폃뫍퓋탐캬뮤럑폃폫쪱솪럖컶랽램뗄늽훨쫇:쫗쿈,볙뚨퓋탐캬뮤럑폃쒣탍볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ춼1훐:튻듎춶럑폃AC(t)쯦쪱볤뗄럻뫏벸훖뎣폃쫙쏼쒣탍훐뗄튻훖;좻뫳,춨맽믒즫맘췆틆훰붥복짙,웤폫쪱볤돊뷼쯆뗄쿟탔맘쾵;뛸퓋탐솪럖컶럖뇰쟳돶맘솪뛈,폃듋맘솪뛈쯹뛔펦뗄럖늼캬뮤럑폃SC(t)쫇튻룶탨튪뎤웚춶죫뗄럑폃,춬쪱몯쫽뇭쪾퓋탐캬뮤럑폃쒣탍;ퟮ뫳,붫튻듎춶럑폃평폚짦벰훮뛠늻좷뚨뗄틲쯘,룃쿮럑폃쯦쪱볤뗄뇤뫍퓋탐캬뮤럑폃쟳뫍ꆣ뮯쟺쿟뇭쿖캪럇쿟탔,벴쯦쪱볤뗄췆틆뛸퓶볓;쇭쫕룥죕웚:2008-09-08믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(50777068)ퟷ헟볲뷩:삵병뚰(1965ꆪ),쓐,맣뚫쎷쿘죋,훘쟬듳톧늩쪿퇐뺿짺,룟벶릤돌쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲:벼쫵뺭볃ꆢ춶뻶닟;퇮탣첦(1933ꆪ),쓐,훘쟬죋,훘쟬듳톧뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲:뗧솦뺭볃ꆢ춶뻶닟;태킡럼(1962ꆪ),쓐,훘쟬죋,훘쟬듳톧뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲:뗧솦쾵춳ꆣ29
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚27뻭ꆡ뗚11웚췢,ퟜ럑폃몯쫽LLCC(t)돊쿖돶낼몯쫽탎ힴ,벴뗧솦햹맽돌뷸탐솿뮯럖컶살뾼달쾵춳훮틲쯘횮볤뗄쿠맘짨놸퓚좫쫙쏼훜웚훐듦퓚ퟮ킡럑폃LLCC(T0)뫍ퟮ돌뛈,벴룹뻝쟺쿟볤뗄쿠쯆돌뛈살에뛏틲쯘볤뗄맘병쪹폃쫙쏼T0,듋뫳럑폃믡쯦쪹폃쪱볤뗄췆틆뛸솪돌뛈,틔맘솪뛈ퟷ캪웤맘쾵쏜쟐돌뛈벰쿠뮥뇈뷏퓶볓ꆣ뿉볻,퓚돉놾맜샭맽돌훐,돤럖뾼싇쿮쒿뗄뿉뗄쿠뛔뇪횾[13215]ꆣ평폚듋랽램뛔퇹놾솿뗄듳킡쎻폐쓜ퟮ킡럑폃뫍뿉쓜ퟮ병쪹폃쫙쏼뛔폚짨놸캬탞ꆢ캬첫룟튪쟳,뛸쟒럖컶뗄뷡맻튻냣폫뚨탔럖컶쿠컇뫏,뮤ꆢ룼뮻폐ퟅ훘튪틢틥,춬쪱튲쓜놣횤웳튵춶샻죳틲뛸뻟폐맣랺뗄쫊폃탔ꆣ뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ춨맽믒즫맘솪럖컶좷뚨뗧솦짨놸퓋탐캬뮤럑폃쒣탍뗄늽훨죧쿂:ꋙ볆쯣뺭퇩럖늼몯쫽ꆣ뻝뷼쯆훐캻훈릫쪽Fi=(i-013)/(n+014)볆쯣뺭퇩럖늼몯쫽F0ꆣ웤훐,n뇭쪾캬탞듎쫽;i뇭쪾뗚i듎캬탞ꆣꋚ쟳좡럖늼몯쫽닎쫽ꆣ룹뻝쫙쏼쫽뻝쟳돶룷볙짨럖늼뗄닎쫽벰웤룷뗣럖늼몯쫽ꆣ틲캪퓋탐캬뮤럑폃쒣탍튻냣럻뫏췾늼뛻럖늼ꆢ헽첬럖늼ꆢ뛔쫽헽첬럖늼ꆢ횸쫽럖늼헢4훖럖춼1ꆡ짨놸럑폃맘쾵춼늼,쯹틔놾컄볙뚨쫽뻝퇹놾싺ퟣ쿂쫶4훖럖늼몯쫽춼1훐,튻듎춶럑폃뻟폐쿟탔쳘탔,틲듋뿉내뗄튻훖ꆣ쪱볤욽뻹뮻쯣캪떥캻쪱볤럑폃쒣탍,벴:췾늼뛻럖늼몯쫽:AtbC(t)=AC/tꆣ(3)F-()(t)=1-eaꆣ(4)뛸짨놸퓋탐캬뮤럑폃뗄춶죫탨튪맡뒩듓짨놸춶헽첬럖늼몯쫽:퓋떽놨럏뗄헻룶맽돌,퓚짨놸퓋탐뫳뎤쪱볤쓚죔좻탨튪늻뛏춶죫,맊퓚뮯캪쮲쪱횵쪱튪뾼싇쫙쏼럖F(t)=ꇒt11t-ꛌ-(ꛒ2)dtꆣ(50ꛒ2ꛐe2)늼뗄쟩뿶ꆣ뛔쫽헽첬럖늼럖늼몯쫽:퓚뗧솦릤돌훐,평폚퓋탐캬뮤럑폃뻟폐뢴퓓탔,1lntF-(틲듋죧맻폃쪱볤욽뻹럖첯,붫쓑틔랴펳릤돌뗄쪵볊(t)=ꇒt120ꛒt2ꛐeꛒ-ꛌ2)dtꆣ(6)쟩뿶ꆣ평춼1뿉횪,룃쿮럑폃퓚잰웚춶죫뫜짙,쯦ퟅ횸쫽럖늼몯쫽:쪱볤뗄췆틆뛸퓶볓,횱훁놨럏뛸훕횹춶죫,헻룶맽돌F(t)=1-ꛋt-eꆣ(7)뻟폐럇쿟탔퓶볓뗄쳘뗣ꆣ퓋탐캬뮤럑폃뗄춼탎쳘뗣틔췾늼뛻럖늼몯쫽닎쫽뗄쟳좡캪샽:뛔췾늼뛻폫췾늼뛻럖늼ꆢ헽첬럖늼ꆢ뛔쫽헽첬럖늼ꆢ횸쫽럖늼nn뗈벸훖뗤탍뗄쫙쏼럖늼샠쯆,죴퓋폃뫏쫊뗄쫽톧랽럖늼몯쫽뷸탐벫듳쯆좻맀볆b,뗃떽ꇆbtilntit/ꇆi-i=1i=1램좷뚨퓋탐캬뮤럑폃뗄럖늼샠탍뫍닎쫽n,뻍뿉좷뚨퓋탐럑폃쯦쪱볤뗄럖첯랽쪽,평듋좷뚨ퟜ뗄럑폃쒣1/b=ꇆlntn;폃룃랽돌뷸탐뗼듺볆쯣,뗃떽b^,i/i=1탍ꆣ벴b뗄벫듳쯆좻맀볆횵,춬쪱뿉틔뗃떽a=뒫춳뗄좷뚨퓋탐캬뮤럑폃럖늼샠탍뗄랽램훷튪n11b폐(tbi),평듋뿉볆쯣돶a뗄맀볆횵a^;틲캪b^쫇nꇆ:뻹랽닮ퟮ킡ힼ퓲램뫍믹폚쒣뫽샭싛뗄쒣뫽쳹뷼i=1뛈램[7212]ꆣ떫평폚솽헟퓚쫽뻝솿뷏킡쪱뚼뷏죝틗닺폐욫뗄,평컄쿗[14]뗄뇭8211닩뗃B(n),평b^’=짺뷏듳뗄컳닮,쯹틔놾컄헫뛔뗧솦짨놸뗄쪵볊쟩뿶,B(n)b^뿉틔뗃돶b뗄컞욫맀볆횵b^’ꆣ쳡돶닉폃믒즫맘솪럖컶랽램살뷸탐퓋탐캬뮤럑폃럖웤쯻럖늼몯쫽뗄닎쫽쟳좡폫짏쫶랽램샠쯆,퓚늼샠탍뗄ퟮ병쓢뫏ꆣ헢샯늻퓙훘뢴ꆣꋛ좷뚨믒즫맘솪뛈ꆣ2ꆡ믹폚믒즫맘솪럖컶뗄뗧솦짨놸떥캻쪱볤퓋탐캬뮤럑폃쒣탍퓚믒즫쾵춳훐,훮죧퓋탐믺훆ꆢ뷡릹뫍탐캪뗄탅쾢볈늻쫇좷뚨탔뗄,튲늻쫇췪좫늻횪뗄,뛸쫇늿ꆡꆡ믒즫맘솪럖컶뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇춨맽뛔쾵춳뚯첬랢럖횪뗀뗄ꆣ춨뎣춨맽맘솪럖컶뫍쒣탍붨솢뒦샭쾵춳30
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ삵병뚰뗈:믹폚좫쫙쏼훜웚럖컶뗄뗧솦짨놸럑폃쒣탍탐캪,쪹폃늻췪좫뗄탅쾢뷸탐뻶닟ꆣ캪듋,헢샯퓚캪샽뷸탐좫쫙쏼훜웚럑폃럖컶ꆣ좷뚨4훖럖늼몯쫽뗄믹뒡짏,춨맽믒즫맘솪뛈럖컶룃ퟛ뫏ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳뗄튻듎탔춶풼캪80췲,쪹좷뚨럖늼샠탍ꆣ폃돵웚뗄춶죫캪60췲,룃ퟛ뫏ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳짨놸춷쟳퓚뗚k뗣Fi탲쇐뛔폚F0탲쇐뗄맘솪쾵쫽:10듎랢짺맊헏믲캬탞뗄볤룴쪱볤내욽뻹쎿쓪1듎ꛎi(k)=[min)-Fi(k)+ꛑꇁmax볆쯣,틀듎캪:7940ꆢ15883ꆢ23810ꆢ31765ꆢ39713ꆢ1ꇜiꇜminm1ꇜkꇜF0(kn1ꇜiꇜmmax1ꇜkꇜF0(k)-Fi(k)][F/0(k)-F47635ꆢ55585ꆢ63520ꆢ71455ꆢ79395,떥캻캪킡쪱ꆣ내i(k)+ꛑꇁn뗚뛾뷚쯹쳡랽램,좷뚨웤럑폃쒣탍ꆣmax1ꇜiꇜmaxm1ꇜF0(kkꇜ)-Fi(k)];(8)nꚤ1)ퟛ뫏ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳떥캻쪱볤춶럑폃ꆣi(k)=F0(k)-Fi(k)ꆣ(9)쪽AC(t)=AC=80(12)(8)훐:ꛑ캪럖뇦싊쾵쫽,튻냣좡ꛑ=015;m캪tt퓋탐캬뮤럑폃럖늼몯쫽뗄룶쫽;n캪맊헏듎쫽;2)믹폚믒즫맘솪럖컶뗄ퟛ뫏ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳떥캻쪱ꚤi(k)캪k뗣Fi탲쇐뛔F0탲쇐뗄뻸뛔욫닮ꆣ볤퓋탐캬뮤럑폃ꆣ틲듋,Fi탲쇐뛔폚F0탲쇐뗄맘솪뛈캪:ꋙ볆쯣뺭퇩럖늼몯쫽ꆣ룹뻝뷼쯆훐캻훈릫쪽nꛃFi(F0,Fi)=1k)ꆣ(10)nꇆꛎi(i=(i-013),볆쯣뺭퇩럖(n+늼몯쫽F0,볻뇭1ꆣ014)k=1ꋜ룹뻝맘솪탲쇐좷뚨ퟮ병쓢뫏럖늼샠탍ꆣꋚ쟳좡럖늼몯쫽닎쫽ꆣ룹뻝쪽(4)ꆫ쪽(7)닎쫽틀ꛃ쟳좡랽램,뿉뗃돶룷몯쫽뗄닎쫽,럖뇰캪:췾늼뛻럖i횵뗄듳킡업돶맘솪탲쇐,럖컶쾵쫽탲쇐볤펰쿬돌뛈뗄듳킡ꆣ맘솪뛈풽듳,듺뇭룃퓋탐캬뮤럑늼몯쫽뗄닎쫽,a=49266,b=11718;헽첬럖늼몯폃몯쫽뗄럖늼샠탍풽뷓뷼뺭퇩럖늼몯쫽ꆣ평ퟮ듳맘쫽뗄닎쫽,ꛌ^=43670,ꛒ^=22805;뛔쫽헽첬럖늼몯솪뛈좷뚨ퟮ병쓢뫏럖늼ꆣ쫽뗄닎쫽,ꛌ^=1014901,ꛒ^=016954;횸쫽럖늼몯쫽ퟮ뫳,뿉틔뗃돶ퟮ병쓢뫏럖늼쯹뛔펦뗄짨놸캬뗄닎쫽ꛋ=0100002ꆣ탞럑폃쮲쪱횵:쟳좡웤럖늼룅싊ꆣ웤훐,F1듺뇭췾늼뛻럖늼,Sc(t)=ScꇁF(t)ꆣ(11)F2듺뇭헽첬럖늼,F3듺뇭뛔쫽헽첬럖늼,F4듺뇭횸쫽럖늼ꆣ평듋럖늼룅싊뿉뗃룷ퟔ폫F0뗄뻸뛔욫닮,3ꆡ볆쯣쪵샽맘솪럖컶뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ놾컄틔쒳110kV뇤뗧햾ퟛ뫏ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳짨놸뇭1ꆡ맘솪럖컶뷡맻i12345678910F0(k)010673011635012596013558014519015481016442017404018365019327F1(k)010425011333012493013753014987016109017078017872018496018967F2(k)010586011115011919013008014311015690016993018080018885019414F3(k)010149011200012767014292015568016570017345017934018383018727F4(k)011662013049014203015168015972016641017200017665018053018377ꚤ1(k)010248010302010103010195010468010628010636010468010131010360ꚤ2(k)010087010520010677010550010208010209010551010676010520010087ꚤ3(k)010524010435010171010734011049011089010903010530010018010600ꚤ4(k)010989011414011607011610011453011160010758010261010312010950ꆡꆡꋛ좷뚨믒즫맘솪뛈ꆣ폃쪽(9)뿉쯣돶뗚k뗣Fi016069,015557,016211,019226];탲쇐뛔폚F0탲쇐뗄맘솪쾵쫽:ꛎ3=[016193,016637,018432,015348,014439,014345,min014819,016165,110000,015858];1ꇜiꇜminm1ꇜkꇜꚤi(k)=010018;nmꛎ4=[014588,013709,013412,013408,013645,014188,ax1ꇜmaxiꇜm1ꇜꚤi(k)=011610ꆣkꇜn폃쪽(8)뿉쯣돶015266,017720,017368,014689]ꆣ:ꛎ쟳좡Fi탲쇐뛔폚F0탲쇐뗄맘솪뛈,평쪽(10)1=[017816,017435,019064,018230,016465,015743,뿉뗃:015711,016465,018793,017064];ꛎꛃ1(F0,F1)=017279;ꛃ2(F0,F2)=017073;2=[019226,016211,015553,016074,018124,018116,31
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