合肥工业大学硕士学位论文基于实物期权法的高新企业价值评估姓名：邢杉杉申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：潘立生2010-06
믹폚쪵컯웚좨램뗄룟탂웳튵볛횵움맀 햪 튪 룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄랢햹죕탂퓂틬ꎬ쯼뗄볛횵움맀컊쳢틑뺭돉캪놾쇬폲뗄훘튪컊쳢ꆣ 놾컄쾵춳뗘뛔웳튵볛횵움맀뗄믹놾샭싛랽램뷸탐쇋컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꎬ늢뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄ퟔ짭쳘뗣뫍훷튪맀횵랽램ퟶ쇋뷩짜ꆣ평폚뒫춳뗄웳튵맀횵벼쫵쫜떽쇋퇏뻾뗄쳴햽ꎬ쯹틔놾컄ퟅ훘틔쪵컯웚좨램ퟷ캪웳튵볛횵움맀랽램 뗄퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ뎢쫔톡좡Schwartz & Moon 쪵컯웚좨쒣탍살움맀늻좷뚨탔쟩뿶쿂웳튵뗄볛횵ꆣ퓚헢튻펦폃맽돌훐ꎬ뮹퓋폃쇋쏉쳘뾨싞쫽횵램살쒣쓢쒣탍웳튵캴살뗄쿖뷰쇷솿ꆣ 놾컄톡좡쇋컒맺뒴튵냥쫐뎡짏뗄튻볒룟뿆벼웳튵샊뿆뿆벼ퟷ캪낸샽ꎬ돽쇋움맀닢쯣웤웳튵볛횵췢ꎬ뮹럖컶쇋쳡룟웳튵볛횵뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ 룟탂벼쫵웳튵 웳튵볛횵움맀 쪵컯웚좨 4
Valuation of New and Hi-Tech Enterprises based on Real OptionsAbstract New and high-tech enterprises have been developing rapidly in recent years. The pricing and valuation of such enterprises have become core issues in the field of capital operation This paper systematically surveys the basic literature in enterprise valuation, and examines the characteristics of new and high-tech enterprise valuation. Since traditional methods of enterprise valuation have been significantly challenged, this study focuses on the use of real option pricing model in assessing enterprise values, and attempts to apply the Schwartz & Moon real option pricing model to measure the value of enterprises under uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation method is used in this research to simulate future cash flows of the case company in this study. The case of NETAC TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. listed in China Growth Enterprise Market is investigated in this paper to assess its enterprise value and analyze key drivers of value improvement. Key words: new and high-tech enterprises, evaluation of enterprises, real options 5
닥춼쟥떥 뇭3-1 컒맺뒴튵냥쫐뎡룟탂벼쫵웳튵룅뿶ꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭ16 뇭3-2 룟탂벼쫵볛횵움맀맺쓚퇐뺿돆돉맻뇭ꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭ21 뇭4-1 쪵컯웚좨쒣탍훘튪닎쫽벰붨틩맀볆랽램ꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭ28 춼3-1 뒴튵냥막욱샠탍럖늼춼ꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭ19 춼5-1 샊뿆뿆벼릫쮾죋풱햼뇈벰퇐랢죋풱톧샺뷡릹ꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭ32 춼5-2 샊뿆뿆벼2006-2008쓪샻쫚좨쫕죫퓶뎤춼ꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭꆭ33 9
뛀 뒴 탔 짹 쏷 놾죋짹쏷쯹돊붻뗄톧캻싛컄쫇놾죋퓚떼쪦횸떼쿂뷸탐뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷ벰좡뗃뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ뻝컒쯹횪ꎬ돽쇋컄훐쳘뇰볓틔뇪횾뫍훂킻뗄뗘랽췢ꎬ싛컄훐늻냼몬웤쯻죋틑뺭랢뇭믲킴맽뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ튲늻냼몬캪믱뗃 뫏럊릤튵듳톧 믲웤쯻뷌폽믺릹뗄톧캻믲횤쫩뛸쪹폃맽뗄닄쇏ꆣ폫컒튻춬릤ퟷ뗄춬횾뛔놾퇐뺿쯹ퟶ뗄죎뫎릱쿗뻹틑퓚싛컄훐ퟷ쇋쏷좷뗄쮵쏷늢뇭쪾킻틢ꆣ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩ퟖꎺ 탏즼즼 잩ퟖ죕웚ꎺ 2010 쓪 12 퓂 6 죕 톧캻싛컄냦좨쪹폃쫚좨쫩 놾톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟췪좫쇋뷢 뫏럊릤튵듳톧 폐맘놣쇴ꆢ쪹폃톧캻싛컄뗄맦뚨ꎬ폐좨놣쇴늢쿲맺볒폐맘늿쏅믲믺릹쯍붻싛컄뗄뢴펡볾뫍듅엌ꎬ퓊탭싛컄놻닩퓄믲뷨퓄ꆣ놾죋쫚좨 뫏럊릤튵듳톧 뿉틔붫톧캻싛컄뗄좫늿믲늿럖싛컄쓚죝뇠죫폐맘쫽뻝뿢뷸탐볬쯷ꎬ뿉틔닉폃펰펡ꆢ쯵펡믲즨쏨뗈뢴훆쫖뛎놣듦ꆢ믣뇠톧캻싛컄ꆣ ꎨ놣쏜뗄톧캻싛컄퓚뷢쏜뫳쫊폃놾쫚좨쫩ꎩ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ탏즼즼 떼쪦잩쏻ꎺ엋솢짺 잩ퟖ죕웚ꎺ 2010 쓪 12 퓂 6 죕 잩ퟖ죕웚ꎺ 2010 쓪 12 퓂 6 죕 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟뇏튵뫳좥쿲ꎺ볌탸듓쫂뷌쪦릤ퟷ 뗧뮰ꎺ13805692700 릤ퟷ떥캻ꎺ낲믕돇쫐맜샭횰튵톧풺 춨톶뗘횷ꎺ뫏럊쫐룻퓅슷158뫅낲믕돇쫐맜샭톧풺 폊뇠ꎺ230601 3
쳘뇰짹쏷 놾톧캻싛컄쫇퓚컒뗄떼쪦횸떼쿂뛀솢췪돉뗄ꆣ퓚퇐뺿짺톧쾰웚볤ꎬ컒뗄떼쪦튪쟳컒볡뻶뗖훆톧쫵늻뛋탐캪ꆣ퓚듋ꎬ컒횣훘짹쏷ꎬ놾싛컄컞죎뫎톧쫵늻뛋탐캪ꎬ죧맻놻랢쿖폐죎뫎톧쫵늻뛋탐캪ꎬ튻쟐퓰죎췪좫평놾죋돐떣ꆣ 톧캻싛컄잩쏻ꎺ탏즼즼 잩ퟖ죕웚ꎺ2010쓪 12퓂4죕 54
뗚튻헂 탷싛 컊쳢뗄쳡돶벰퇐뺿놳뺰 쯦ퟅ죋샠짧믡늽죫좫쟲뮯쪱듺ꎬ좫쟲웳튵튲평듋뷸죫쇋룟쯙랢햹뗄뷗뛎ꎬ헢웤훐룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄랢햹룼쫇죕탂퓂틬ꆣ뫜뛠맺볒뫍뗘쟸뚼틑죏쪶떽ꎬ듳솦랢햹횪쪶쏜벯탍뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뿉틔벰쪱뗘뗷헻닺튵뷡릹ꆢ폅뮯뺭볃늼뻖ꎬ듓뛸췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤ꆢ쳡룟ퟔ짭뗄뫋탄뺺헹솦ꆣ듳솦랢햹룟탂벼쫵웳튵ꎬ늻뷶뿉틔랢햹룟탂벼쫵웳튵놾짭ꎬ웤ퟷ폃뮹쳥쿖퓚뫜뛠웤쯻랽쏦ꎬ뇈죧룟탂벼쫵퇐뺿돉맻뿉틔째춸떽뒫춳웳튵짭짏ꎬ쪹뗃튻킩쾦퇴탐튵뗃틔뷸탐룄퓬ꆢ짽벶뫍랢햹ꎬ훘탂짺닺돶뢻폐뺺헹솦뗄탂닺욷믲짽벶닺욷ꎬ듯떽탍돉킧ꎬ췪돉닺튵짽벶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄맦쒣뫍쮮욽쫇럱릻듳릻잿ꎬ퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏늻뷶쓜랴펳튻룶뺭볃쳥뗄쪵볊뺺헹솦ꎬ쟒쓜돤럖랴펳헢룶뺭볃쳥붫살뗄랢햹뿉쓜ꆣ 풽쫇랢듯맺볒ꎬ룟탂벼쫵웳튵뛔뺭볃랢햹뗄릱쿗뇈샽풽듳ꎬ헢랴펳퓚쫀뷧짏훷튪랢듯맺볒뗄벼쫵뷸늽뛔룷ퟔ뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊뻹쪮럖뿉맛ꆣ샽죧쿖뷱ퟮ뻟쪵솦뗄뺭볃쳥쏀맺ꎬ퓧퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺뻍틑뺭슽탸럅웺쇋뫜뛠뒫춳닺튵ꎬ뾪쪼퓚룟탂벼쫵뫍탅쾢닺튵짏볓듳춶솦뛈ꎬ엠폽맣뛈ꆣ쟇훎ꆤ늼쪲죎ퟜ춳웚볤ꎬ쫗쿈뛔룟탂벼쫵훐뗄탅쾢닺튵뗄랢햹쪵쪩맺볒햽싔횸떼ꆣ뛸뇈뛻ꆤ뿋쇖뛙[1]짏첨뫳,튲뷴뷓ퟅ훆뚨폫쪵쪩쇋ꆰ탅쾢룟쯙릫슷볆뮮ꆱꆣ 뻝쏀맺짌컱늿랢뇭뗄ꆶ2000쓪쫽ퟖ뺭볃ꆷ놨룦쿔쪾ꎬ1995쓪틔살뗄5쓪볤ꎬ쏀맺뺭볃퓶뎤훐폐풼30%살풴폚룟탂벼쫵훐뗄탅쾢벼쫵닺튵ꆣ뛸쇭췢튻룶퇇훞뺭볃잿맺죕놾ꎬ퓚뛾햽뫳뗄뺭볃룟쯙퓶뎤튲퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏뗃틦폚룟탂벼쫵뗄랢햹ꎬ뎤웚쪵쪩ꆰ뿆벼솢맺ꆱ햽싔ꎬ늻뷶쪹뗃죕놾뺭볃듓뛾햽뫳뗄퇏훘쮥췋훐벰쪱뢴쯕ꎬ룼냯훺룃맺퓚짺쏼뿆톧ꆢ탅쾢춨탅벼쫵ꆢ뮷뺳뿆톧ꆢ쓉쏗벼쫵뗈룟뿆벼닺튵훐좡뗃뻞듳쫕틦ꆣ뛸얷쏋룷돉풱맺튲쫇벰쪱듯돉쇋릲쪶ꎬ듓뛾쪮쫀볍냋쪮쓪듺떽놾쫀볍돵ꎬ얷쏋틑쪵쪩쇋뷼450틚얷풪뗄ퟜ춶뛮ꎬ훘뗣뷸탐짺쏼폫짺첬뿆톧ꆢ탅쾢짧믡벼쫵틔벰뿉돖탸랢햹벼쫵뗄퇐뺿ꎬ늢돉릦뗘퓚룟벼쫵쇬폲좡뗃쇋뫍쏀맺죕놾헹탛뗄놾ꆣ 퓚헢훖럕캧쿂ꎬ컒맺튲뾪쪼퓚뛾쪮쫀볍뻅쪮쓪듺쪵쪩쇋뿆벼탋맺뗄햽싔ꎬ늢좡뗃쇋튻뚨뗄킧맻뫍돉벨ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ컒맺뗄뺭볃ퟜ쳥ퟩ돉틀뻉틔듖럅탍캪훷뗄쿖ힴꎬ힢뚨쇋룟탂벼쫵뗄랢햹쿠뷏폚쫀뷧웤쯻맺볒뗘쟸틀좻쿔뗃뇈뷏놡죵ꆣ떽쇋뷱쳬ꎬ쫀뷧뺭볃룱뻖튻뇤퓙뇤ꎬ폚2008쓪뾪쪼뗄맺볊탔뷰죚럧놩쪹뗃좫쫀뷧뫜뛠뺭볃쳥뚼쫜떽뻞듳돥믷ꎬ컒맺튲춬퇹쏦쇙ퟅ쪵쳥뺭볃쿂뮬ꆢ췢쎳돶뿚퇏훘캮쯵ꆢ뺭볃엝쒭퇏훘뗈튻쾵쇐컊쳢ꎬ쳘뇰쫇튻횱틀삵뗍뛋볓릤뗄돶뿚튵ꎬ룼퓢쫜쇋뷏듳듲믷ꆣ퓚헢훖캣믺쯄럼뗄뺭볃듳뮷뺳쿂ꎬ듳솦랢햹컒맺뗄룟탂벼쫵닺튵ꆢ톸쯙쳡짽ퟔ훷뒴탂쓜솦ꎬ뺡뿬룄뇤돶뿚닺욷뗄뷡릹ꎬ뇣쿔뗃뇈틔췹죎뫎쪱뫲뚼폈캪웈쟐ꎬ룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄랢햹ꆢ춶ꆢ죚뗈탐캪ꎬ튲뇤뗃룼볓훘튪ꆣ 10
룟탂웳튵볛횵움맀퇐뺿뗄쒿뗄뫍틢틥 헽틲캪맺볊틔벰맺쓚뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄랢햹폐ퟅ죧듋훘튪뗄햽싔틢틥ꎬ퇜짺돶살뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄헻쳥볛횵움맀헢튻뿎쳢뗄퇐뺿튲쯦횮냚퓚쇋뺭볃퇐뺿헟뗄쏦잰ꎬ쯼틑뺭?좻돉캪맺볒뺭볃탍쯹쏦쇙뗄뷴웈죎컱ꆣ 룟탂벼쫵웳튵폐웤ퟔ짭뗄쳘뗣ꎬ쯼쏇튻냣튪쟳욫룟뗄춶ꆢ뷏뎤뗄춶훜웚ꎬ퓚폐뿉쓜듸살뎬횵믘놨쪱ꎬ튲믡듸살캴횪뗄쿠뛔뷏룟럧쿕ꆣ평폚뫜뛠춶헟뛔폚럧쿕뗄뿘훆뫜퇏룱ꎬ퓲헢훖뿉쓜뗄룟믘놨떽뗗쫇럱횵뗃춶ꎬ퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏뻍좡뻶폚룃웳튵뗄헻쳥볛횵ꆣ죧뫎뛔쓢춶뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뷸탐헻쳥볛횵움맀ꎬ듓뛸좷뚨춶뿉탐탔ꎬ뛔폚햽싔춶헟뫍뷰죚놾살쮵ꎬ뻍쿔뗃폈캪횵뗃맘힢ꆣ헽틲캪룟탂웳튵폐ퟅ틬폚튻냣뒫춳웳튵뗄튻킩쳘뗣ꎬ뇈죧룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄닺욷쳘헷튻냣듸폐룟뿆벼돉럖ꎬ쫐뎡럧쿕뫜쓑뻟쳥맀볆ꎬ뛸쿠맘뗄샺쪷쫽뻝뫍춬탐튵웳튵쫽뻝튲웕뇩?랦ꎬ짵훁튻욬뿕냗뗈ꆣ헢킩쳘뗣뚼뻶뚨쇋룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄춶뻶닟벰볛횵움맀뻟폐룟뛈뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍뢴퓓탔ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ틔췹웳튵헻쳥볛횵움맀쯹뎣폃뗄튻킩돉쫬샭싛뫍랽램ꎬ퓚퓋폃떽룟탂벼쫵웳튵짭짏쪱췹췹쿔뗃쓑틔쪤죎ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뺡뿬퇐뺿늢쟒쏾쯷돶튻킩탂뗄헫뛔폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵쳘뗣뗄맀횵랽램ꎬ횸떼폐틢뷸탐춶뗄놾ퟷ돶쿠뛔뫏샭에뛏ꎬ듓뛸뻶뚨쫇럱춶ꆢ춶뇈샽뗈ꎬ틑뺭냚퓚쇋훚뛠뺭볃톧퇐뺿헟뗄쏦잰ꆣ 쯦ퟅ룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄톸쏍랢햹ꎬ맘폚웤볛횵움맀뗄샭싛퇐뺿돉맻틑뺭풽살풽뛠뗘펿쿖돶살ꆣ평폚뒫춳뗄웳튵볛횵움맀랽램뫜뛠쪱뫲뚼튪짦벰떽쿖뷰쇷솿뗄맀볆ꎬ뛸퓚룟탂웳튵훐헢룶쫽횵뗄맀볆잡잡럇뎣삧쓑ꆢ튲돤싺쇋늻좷뚨ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ퓚뷼웚맘폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵움맀훐돶쿖쇋튻킩쿠뛔탂펱뗄퇐뺿랽램ꎬ죧쪵컯웚좨램ꆢ쒣뫽움볛램뗈ꆣ 퓚맺췢뫍맺쓚ꎬ룟탂벼웳튵뗄맀횵샭싛쳥쾵뚼폐튻킩돉맻ꎬ헢붫퓚놾컄뗄뗚죽헂폐쿪쾸뷩짜뫍움볛ꆣ떫쫇헢킩움볛랽램듳뛠뫜쓑쫊펦톸쏍뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵랢햹ꎬ쏦뛔ퟅ룷훖늻춬샠탍탂탍룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄돶쿖ꎬ튵뷧웈쟐쾣췻쓜돶쿖룼뛠룼췪짆뗄랽램틔릩퓚쪵볹훐퓋폃ꎬ샽죧뛔뒫춳뗄웳튵볛횵움맀랽램뷸탐튻뚨뗄탞헽ꎬ볓틔럖컶룄뷸ꎬ믲헟뷸튻늽퇐뺿룼폐탂틢뗄쫽톧쒣탍ꆢ늢뛔폚헢킩쒣탍훐뗄튻킩닎쫽퇐뺿웤뫏샭탔ꎬ럖컶웤늻좷뚨탔뗈뗈ꆣ놾컄듓헢퇹뗄퇐뺿쒿뗄돶랢ꎬ뛔쿖폐뗄맺쓚췢쿠맘샭싛뫍랽램뷸탐쇋뷏좫쏦뗄쫕벯뫍헻샭ꎬ늢뷸탐쇋ퟔ컒럖컶쮼뾼ꎬ솦쟳쓜헒돶튻룶쿠뛔퇏뷷뗄쫽톧쒣탍볓틔낸샽럖컶ꎬ늢뛔웤훐뗄쒳킩닎쫽뷸탐탞헽ꎬ헢뇣쫇놾컄뗄킴ퟷ틢틥뫍쒿뗄ꆣ 놾컄뷡릹뿲볜 놾컄뷡릹릲럖캪쇹헂ꎬ뗚튻ꆢ뛾ꆢ죽헂틔컄쿗뫍샭싛퇐뺿캪훷ꎬퟶ쇋튻뚨뗄럖컶뫍맩쓉ꎬ뗚쯄ꆢ컥헂퓲닠훘폚쪵볊뺭볃쒣탍뗄퇐뺿톡좡뫍낸샽럖컶ꆢ쫽 11
뻝듺죫ꎬ뷡뫏쇋튻뚨뗄뒴탂뗣ꎻ뗚쇹헂캪ퟜ뷡햹췻ꆣ 놾컄뻟쳥쓚죝죧쿂햹뾪ꎺ뗚튻헂닻쫶쇋놾컄쯹퇐뺿컊쳢뗄놳뺰ꆢ퇐뺿쒿뗄뫍틢틥ꎬ늢쟒뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵움맀쿖ힴퟶ튻룶볲떥쏨쫶ꎬ듓뛸틽돶컊쳢ꆣ뗚뛾헂뛔폚웳튵볛횵움맀ퟶ헻쳥쏨쫶ꎬ냼몬웳튵헻쳥볛횵움맀뗄뚨틥ꆢ쿠맘훷튪샭싛틔벰쿖폐뗄훷튪뺭볃쒣탍ꎬ늢쟒뛔쯼쏇뷸탐볲떥뇈뷏뫍럖컶ꆣ퓚뗚죽헂훐ꎬ쫗쿈뛔폚룟탂웳튵ퟶ뚨틥닻쫶벰쳘헷쏨쫶ꎬ늢뷡뫏헢킩쳘뗣뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵움맀ퟶ돶튻룶ퟛ쫶ꎬ뛔폚맺쓚췢쿖폐뗄랽램쒣탍뷸탐ퟜ뷡늢횸돶웤듦퓚뗄컊쳢뫍늻ퟣꆣ뗚쯄헂퓲톡좡쇋뇊헟죏뿉뗄튻훖쪵컯웚좨움맀랽램Schwartz & Moon램뷸탐뻟쳥럖컶ꎬ쫇놾컄뗄훘뗣ꎬ늢퓚럖컶뗄믹뒡짏뛔튻킩닎쫽짏뷸탐볲뮯뗷헻ꆣ뗚컥헂톡좡쇋뷏뇈폐듺뇭틢틥뗄짮횤뒴튵냥쫐뎡짏튻볒룟탂벼쫵웳튵샊뿆뿆벼ퟷ캪퇐뺿낸샽ꎬ샻폃웤쫽뻝쇏뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ듺죫떽Schwartz & Moon쒣탍훐뷸탐뻟쳥닢쯣뫍럖컶ꆣퟮ뫳뗚쇹헂퓲뛔좫컄뗄퇐뺿쓚죝뷸탐ퟜ뷡ꎬ쳡돶쇋ퟔ벺죏쪶짏뗄늻ퟣꎬ늢뛔폚틔뫳뷸튻늽퇐뺿뗄뿉쓜랽쿲ퟶ쇋튻룶햹췻ꆣ 12
뗚뛾헂 웳튵헻쳥볛횵움맀뗄믹놾샭싛폫랽램 웳튵헻쳥볛횵움맀뗄쿠맘닻쫶 뚨틥틔벰퓚쫐뎡뺭볃훐뗄훘튪탔 ퟛ뫏맺쓚췢뷰죚샭싛뛔폚웳튵닺움맀뗄룷훖쏨쫶ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔붫ꆰ웳튵닺움맀ꆱퟶ죧쿂뚨틥ꎺ쫇붫튻룶웳튵ퟷ캪튻룶폐믺헻쳥ꎬ틀뻝웤펵폐믲햼폐뗄좫늿닺ힴ뿶뫍헻쳥믱샻쓜솦ꎬ돤럖뾼싇펰쿬웳튵믱샻쓜솦뗄룷훖틲쯘ꎬ뷡뫏웳튵쯹뒦뗄뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳벰탐튵놳뺰ꎬ뛔웳튵헻쳥릫퓊쫐뎡볛횵뷸탐뗄ퟛ뫏탔움맀ꆣ뛸헢튻탐캪ꎬ퓲틀삵폚쿠맘튵죋풱샻폃쳘뚨랽램뷸탐럖컶ꆢ맀쯣늢랢뇭튵틢볻뛸킴놨룦쫩ꆣ 훚쯹훜횪ꎬ웳튵볛횵뗄움맀쫇튻룶샺쪷폆뻃뗄컊쳢ꎬ퓚쫐뎡뺭볃믮뚯훐폐ퟅ훘튪뗄쪵볊틢틥ꆣ컞싛쫇퓚웳튵뗄볦늢ꆢ훘ퟩ솪펪ꆢ막럝뺭펪ꆢ뫏뫏ퟷ뺭펪ꎬ폖믲헟쫇퓚짏쫐ꆢ웆닺쟥쯣ꆢ떣놣훐ꎬ뚼탨튪뛔웳튵뗄헻쳥믲헟늿럖닺ퟶ튻룶볛횵움맀ꎬ틔뇣좷뚨쯹짦벰닺믲헟웳튵헻쳥뗄볛룱ꎬ헢튲쫇떱뷱뺭볃룄룯훐뗄죈뗣뿎쳢ꆣ돽쇋헢킩쳘뚨쪱뿌ꎬ벴쪹쫇웳튵뗄죕뎣뺭펪뻶닟훐닺볛횵움맀튲쫇럇뎣훘튪뗄ꎬ쯼쓜릻냯훺맜샭떱뻖폐킧룄짆뺭펪뻶닟ꎬ뇈죧폃폚춶럖컶ꆢ햽싔럖컶뫍틔볛횵캪믹뒡뗄맜샭ꎻ튲뿉틔냯훺뺭샭죋풱룼뫃뗘쇋뷢릫쮾뗄폅쫆뫍쇓쫆뗈ꆣ 웳튵닺움맀탐튵뗄샺쪷랢햹 퓧퓚쪮쯄훁쪮컥쫀볍ꎬ컷얷쫖릤튵뗄톸쯙랢햹뻍듟짺쇋짌욷볛횵뗄본뚨헢튻탐튵뗄쏈톿ꎬ볌뛸탎돉쇋뷱쳬닺볛횵움맀뗄돻탎ꆣ쯦ퟅ웤뫳횤좯튵뗄돶쿖ꎬ쫐뎡짏폖펦퓋뛸짺돶튵뗄횤좯움맀믺릹ꎬ횱떽1792쓪펢맺닢솿쪦톧믡뗄돉솢ꎬ쿖듺틢틥뗄닺움맀닅헽쪽돉탎ꆣ쿖퓚뗄움맀랽램틑뺭탎돉뷏캪췪짆뛸뿆톧뗄샭싛쳥쾵ꎬ쿠뛔폚퓧웚뗄닺움맀뛔쿳훷튪쫇헫뛔볲떥뗄떥쿮닺ꎬ죧뷱뗄움맀뛔쿳틑뺭뇤돉쇋웳튵닺뗄ퟜ쳥ꎬ볌뛸삩햹떽뢽볓볛횵뗄틧폠ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ쯦ퟅ놾훷틥쫐뎡뺭볃뗄듳솦랢햹ꎬ닺움맀샭싛튲평풭쿈뗄뷶뷶듓쫴폚컷랽뗄훷쇷뺭볃쮼쿫ꎬ싽싽듓훐럖샫돶살ꆣ횱떽늼삳뿋튻쮹뿆뛻쮹웚좨뚨볛릫쪽뗄쳡돶뫍쪵컯웚좨샭싛뗄랢햹ꎬ웳튵볛횵움맀샭싛닅췑펱뛸돶ꎬ돉캪뷰죚닺뚨볛샭싛뗄훷튪쓚죝ꆣ닺뚨볛샭싛뗄랢햹,캪뷰죚톧펮뗃쇋뛀솢뗄톧[2]뿆뗘캻,퓚헢틔잰ꆰ뷰죚톧돉쇋믵뇒뺭볃톧뗄듺쏻듊ꆣꆱ 랢햹떽뷱쳬ꎬ쿖듺뷰죚튵룼뛔닺볛횵뗄움맀쳡돶쇋룼짮닣듎뗄튪쟳ꎬ춨맽좫쏦뛸돤럖뗘닢쯣쒿뇪릫쮾쓜캪막뚫듸살뗄볛횵ꎬ쳡돶쒿뇪릫쮾뗄ꆰ릫욽쫐뎡볛횵ꆱ틢볻ꎬퟷ캪쫕릺랽벰놻쫕릺랽막뚫뗄뻶닟틀뻝ꆣ뛸쒿뇪웳튵뗄볛횵움 13
맀헽놻죏캪쫇볦늢폫쫕릺붻틗탐캪뗄뫋탄ꆣ폐뺭볃톧볒짵훁죏캪랢듯맺뷼냙쓪[3]뗄뺭볃랢햹쪷쪵볊짏쫇튻냙쓪뗄웳튵릺늢쪷ꆣ 퓚컷랽맺볒훐ꎬ닺움맀쫂튵쫇퓚쫐뎡뺭볃뗄ퟔ좻랢햹맽돌훐퓐폽돉쫬뗄ꆣ뛸퓚컒맺ꎬ헢튻닺짺놳뺰뫍랢햹맽돌폐ퟅ쏷쿔뗄늻춬ꆣ컒맺웳튵닺뗄볛횵움맀ퟮ퓧떮짺폚룄룯뾪럅횮돵뗄80쓪듺ꎬ돉뎤폚90쓪듺ꎬ캪컒맺뗄룄룯뾪럅뫍쫐뎡뺭볃붨짨뷢뻶쇋늻짙쓑쳢ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ웤볤헢튻탐튵뗄랢햹튲듦퓚ퟅ늻짙컊쳢ꎬ뇈죧랽램믬싒ꆢ쯦틢탔잿ꎬ짵훁퓚움맀맽돌훐돶쿖쇋튻킩웳튵뫍짏쫐릫쮾샻폃닺움맀살뷸탐믡볆닙ퟝ뗄퇏훘쫂볾ꆣ횱떽2005쓪돵ꎬ훐맺닺움맀킭믡닅랢늼쇋ꆶ웳튵볛횵움맀횸떼틢볻(쫔탐)ꆷ헢튻맦랶탔뗄쳵컄ꎬ캪컒맺웳튵볛횵움[4]맀쫂튵뗄량쯙랢햹뗬뚨쇋튻룶룯쏼탔뗄탂웰뗣ꆣ 컒맺뗄닺볛횵움맀튵퓧웚닉폃뗄랽램뇈뷏떥튻쟒좱랦쫐뎡탔ꎬ췹췹볲떥뗘뛔룷떥쿮닺뺭릫퓊움맀뫳뗃돶닺볛횵ꎬ퓙뫍햮컱쿠볓뫳뗃돶튻룶듺쫽뫍ꎬ뻍틔듋ퟷ캪웳튵헻쳥볛횵ꆣ뛸쿖퓚ꎬ쿖듺뷰죚톧틑뺭붫웳튵볛횵움맀뚨틥캪튻훖뛔웳튵닺ퟛ뫏쳥뗄헻쳥탔ꆢ뚯첬뗄볛횵움맀ꆣ뛔펦폚헢훖쮼쿫짏뗄뎹뗗룄뇤ꎬ컒맺뷰죚뷧뫍믡볆뷧듳솿퇐뺿쇋맺췢틑폐뗄튻킩쪵폃탔샭싛ꎬ늢뛔튻킩맀횵쒣탍ퟷ돶쫊뫏폚훐맺맺쟩뗄쫊떱룄뷸ꆣ 죧뷱ꎬ퓚컒맺웳튵볛횵움맀튲틑짮죫떽뺭볃짺믮뗄랽랽쏦쏦ꎬ죧짌튵틸탐웳튵탅폃움맀ꆢ늻솼햮좨뗄뒦훃ꎻ횤좯릫쮾돐쿺탂막랢탐뗄뚨볛ꆢ웳튵릺늢쪱뗄뚨볛ꎻ짏쫐릫쮾쓋훁룷훖쯹폐훆웳튵ힷ쟳컈붡ꆢ돖탸뗄볛횵퓶뎤ꎻ막쏱죏쪶뫍에뛏짏쫐릫쮾뗄춶볛횵뗈ꎬ컞튻늻짦벰뛔웳튵볛횵뗄움맀맽돌ꆣ훐맺뗄닺움맀튵틑뺭퓚믽벫퇐뺿쿠맘쫐뎡뮯뗄닺움맀샭싛ꎬ늢믽벫뗘펦폃폚움맀쪵볹훐ꎬퟶ돶쇋듳솿퇐뺿틔벰쪵횤ꆣ 웳튵볛횵움맀뗄훷튪샭싛 쒪뗏샯퇇쓡뫍쏗샕쳡돶뗄MM 뚨샭 놾뷡릹컊쳢뗄퇐뺿쪼폚쪮뻅쫀볍뻅쪮쓪듺ꎬ쏀맺닆컱볒듷캬ꆤ뛅삼쫇[5]퓧웚놾뷡릹샭싛뗄훘튪퇐뺿헟 ꆣ쯻죏캪ꎬ릫쮾헻쳥볛횵폫뷨듻놾뫍막놾놾뗄뇈샽쎻폐맘쾵ꎬ헢뻍쫇훸쏻뗄ꆰ헻쳥탔샭싛ꆱ볙쮵( Entity Theory) ꎬ떫쫇헢룶볙쮵뗄싛횤뫳살캪쒪뗏샯퇇쓡뫍쏗샕뛾죋췪돉ꎬ놻죋쏇볲돆캪훸쏻뗄MM샭싛ꆣ쒪뗏샯퇇쓡뫍쏗샕퓚1958 쓪랢뇭쇋ꆶ놾돉놾ꆢ릫쮾죚뫍춶맜샭ꆷ뫍쾵쇐쿠맘싛컄ꎬ쟥돾뗘뷒쪾쇋놾뷡릹폫릫쮾볛횵횮볤뗄쓚퓚맘쾵ꎬ헢퓚릫쮾맀횵샭싛뗄랢햹짏햼폐벰훘튪뗄뗘캻ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬMM 뚨샭폐튻쾵쇐볙짨쳵볾ꎬ웤훐훷튪뗄쫇췪짆뗄놾쫐뎡ꆢ컞붻틗돉놾틔벰쎻폐쿞훆뗄컞럧쿕샻싊뫍뷨뿮쫽뛮뗈ꆣ퓚헢킩볙짨쳵볾쿂ꎬ뛾죋훷튪싛횤쇋헢퇹튻룶맛뗣ꎺ릫쮾놾돉놾폫릫쮾볛횵뛀솢폚릫쮾죚헾닟ꆣ뷴뷓 14
ퟅꎬ쯻쏇폖훘뗣싛쫶쇋틔쿂뗄퇜짺맛뗣ꎺꎨ1ꎩ닆컱룜룋뇈싊뷏룟뗄릫쮾퓚춶쫕틦싊짏뗄폅쫆ꎬ믡틲캪럧쿕늹뎥돉놾뗄짏짽뛸뗖쿻ꆣ랴횮ꎬ뷨듻뇈샽뷏뗍뗄릫쮾뗄럧쿕늹뎥돉놾튲쿠펦뷏뗍ꎬ틲듋놾뷡릹뗄닮뇰늻믡펰쿬릫쮾볛횵ꆣꎨ2ꎩ평폚샻쾢횧돶뿉틔뗖뿛쮰뷰ꎬ쯹틔쯼뿉틔퓶볓릫쮾펯폠ꆣꎨ3ꎩ1961 쓪10 퓂솽죋솪쏻랢뇭뗄ꆶ막샻헾닟ꆢ퓶뎤폫막좨맀볛ꆷ튻컄훐ꎬ뛾죋폖햹뾪쇋막샻럖엤[6]뛔릫쮾볛횵펰쿬뗄쳖싛ꎬ늢뗃돶쇋막샻럖엤헾닟폫릫쮾볛횵컞맘뗄뷡싛ꆣ 볛횵톧엉맘폚쿖뷰쇷솿뗄죏뚨 췾솮쒷쮹(John Burr Williams) 폚1937 쓪췪돉뗄늩쪿싛컄ꆶ춶볛횵샭싛ꆷꎬ뾪뒴쇋쓚퓚볛횵싛뗄쿈뫓ꆣ볛횵톧엉폫쫐뎡톧엉ퟮ듳쟸뇰퓚폚쫐뎡폐킧탔뗄죏뚨짏ꆣ쒪뗏샯퇇쓡뫍쏗샕뗈쫐뎡톧엉뗄쇬뻼죋컯뗄샭싛잰쳡뚼볙뚨놾쫐뎡쫇폐킧뗄뫍췪짆뗄ꎬ틲듋볛룱뫍볛횵쫇튻훂뗄믲펦떱튻훂ꎬ솽헟늻펦떱폐욫샫ꆣ헢훖훷헅뗈폚죏뚨럧쿕쫇췢짺뇤솿ꎬ럧쿕닢뛈횻폐춨맽쫐뎡닅쓜뷸탐ꆣ췾솮쒷쮹떱쪱쎻폐쳡떽럧쿕뗄풴짺탔컊쳢ꎬ헢룶컊쳢쫇벸쪮쓪뫳닅캪쫀죋쯹맘힢ꆣ췾솮쒷쮹뗄릱쿗폐뛾뗣ꎺ 튻쫇룸돶쇋DDM 볛횵움맀쒣탍ꎬ헢쫇탭뛠퇜짺쿖횵움맀쒣탍뗄믹뒡ꆣ뛾쫇냑막샻뾴ퟷ쫇쿖뷰쇷솿ꆣ췾쫏뗄헢킩돉맻ꎬ놻웕뇩죏캪쫇뛔릫쮾볛횵톧쮵랢햹뗄튻듳릱쿗ꆣ 퓚췾솮쒷쮹횮뫳ꎬ쏀맺톧헟컖뛻쳘ꎨꎩ폚1956쓪쳡돶튻룶탞헽뗄볛횵움맀릫쪽DPCSPꎨDividend Policies and C ommon Stock Priceꎩ,룃릫쪽붫릫쮾볛횵폫릫쮾펯샻ꆢ막샻랢럅뇈샽ꆢ퓙쫕틦싊틔벰쫐뎡믹ힼ쫕틦싊뗈솪쾵웰살ꎬ듓뛸뗃돶뷡싛ꎺꎨ1ꎩ떱릫쮾펯폠퓙춶싊뗈폚쫐뎡믹ힼ쫕틦싊쪱ꎬ릫쮾볛횵뷶뷶폫쮰뫳샻죳폐맘뛸뫍막샻헾닟컞맘ꎻꎨ2ꎩ떱릫쮾펯폠퓙춶싊킡폚쫐뎡믹ힼ쫕틦싊쪱ꎬ막샻럖엤풽짙ꎬ릫쮾볛횵풽듳ꎻꎨ3ꎩ떱릫쮾펯폠퓙춶싊듳폚쫐뎡믹ힼ쫕틦싊쪱ꎬ막샻럖엤풽뛠릫쮾볛횵풽듳ꆣ 볛횵톧엉뗄맛뗣헫뛔쿈잰뗄쫐뎡톧엉쳡돶쇋췪좫쿠랴뗄맛뗣ꎬ쯻쏇죏캪헆컕릫쮾뗄쓚퓚볛횵룼볓훘튪ꎬ벴펦냑럧쿕쿻돽퓚춶뻶닟횮잰ꎬ뛸늻쫇틀삵폚뫳살뗄쪲쎴춶ퟩ뫏ꆣꆰ컒쏇죏캪춶튵뗄톧짺횻탨튪솽쏅뷌쫚뗃떱뗄뿎돌ꆪ[7]ꆪ죧뫎움맀튻볒릫쮾ꎬ틔벰죧뫎뾼싇쫐뎡볛룱ꆱꆣ 쪵볊짏ꎬ헢튻맛뗣튲뗃떽뫜뛠돧짐볛횵춶뗄춶헟뗄뿏뚨ꎬ샽죧훸쏻뗄춶듳쪦냍럆쳘ꎬ뻍튻횱쫇헢튻맛뗣짭쳥솦탐뗄횴탐헟ꆣ 쪵컯웚좨맀횵쮼쿫 뛔폚폐킩릫쮾살쮵ꎬ쿖뷰쇷솿늢럇샭쿫뮯뗄좷뚨쫽횵ꎬ뻍솬헛쿟랢햹튲뫜쓑싺ퟣꎬ쿱헢퇹뗄릫쮾볛횵뻍뫜쓑폃쿖횵맀볛쒣탍살횱뷓맀쯣ꆣ샽죧뛔폚튻킩탂탋탐튵뗄릫쮾ꎬ쯼쏇뗄릫쮾뺭펪샭쓮뿉쓜캴뇘ퟅ퇛폚퇛잰솢벴뿉볻뗄쫕틦ꎬ뛸룼볓욫쿲붫살뗄햽싔랢햹ꆣ쓇쎴ꎬ퓚뿉틔풤볻뗄쫽쓪볤ꎬ헢킩릫쮾췹췹컞램 15
쳡릩막샻ꎬ짵훁솬헽뗄쿖뷰쇷솿뚼컞램놣횤ꎬ쫇럱헢퇹뗄릫쮾뻍죧쫐뎡엉톧쮵쓇퇹죏뚨뗄뫁컞볛횵쓘ꎿ쿔좻늻쫇ꆣ볈좻뒫춳뗄웳튵볛횵움볛랽램컞램뷢뻶헢킩릫쮾뗄맀횵컊쳢ꎬꆰ쪵컯웚좨ꆱ헢튻샭싛뗄돶쿖퓲펦퓋뛸짺쇋ꆣ 쪵컯웚좨헢룶룅쓮ퟮ퓧평싩쪡샭릤톧풺뷌쫚춼뛻쳘ꆤ싵뛻쮹폚1977쓪쳡돶ꎬ[8]쯼쫇뷰죚웚좨샭싛퓚쪵컯닺맀횵뫍뚨볛퇐뺿쇬폲뗄퇓짬뫍랢햹ꆣ헢솽훖샭싛퓚쒳킩랽쏦폐킩쟸뇰ꎬ떫쫇솽헟뗄쮼쿫믹놾튻훂ꎬ뚼죏캪럧쿕늻뷶쫇쯰쪧뗄뿉쓜탔ꎬ퓚튻뚨쳵볾쿂뮹뻟폐룄뇤(냼삨퓶볓) 쓚퓚볛횵뗄뿉쓜ꎬ럧쿕풽듳ꎬ쓚퓚볛횵룄뇤뗄뿉쓜탔튲풽듳ꆣ쿖횵맀볛쒣탍뫶싔쇋춶믺믡뗄볛횵ꎬ떫퓚쪵컯웚좨맀횵샭싛훐,춶믺믡펵폐웚좨볛횵ꎬ쯼뗄웚좨볛횵늻뷶믡평폚쿖뷰쇷죫럖늼늻춬뛸랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ뮹믡평폚춶돉놾뗄뇤뮯뫍쿖뷰쇷죫럖늼룅싊뗄늻춬뛸랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ퓚쪵컯웚좨맀횵샭싛훐ꎬ평폚늻춬뗄춶믺믡쯹펵폐뗄웚좨볛횵늻춬ꎬ춶헟뻍폐쇋뻶닟짏뗄쒳훖쇩믮탔ꎬ헢훖쇩믮탔튲쫇폐볛횵뗄ꎬ컒쏇돆횮[9]캪쇩믮탔웚좨ꆣ 듓웚좨뗄뷇뛈돶랢ꎬ춶믺믡샠쯆폚뷰죚웚좨훐뗄뾴헇웚좨ꎬ쯼뢳폨웚좨돖폐헟틔튻뚨뗄횴탐볛룱(춶횧돶믲춶돉놾) 횴탐쒳룶춶쿮쒿뗄좨샻뛸늢럇틥컱ꆣ헢룶쿮쒿뗄볛횵쯦ퟅ쿖뷰쇷뗄늨뚯뛸뇤뮯,죧맻뺻믘놨캪뢺퓲컒쏇돆[10]횮캪ꆰ탩횵ꆱ웚좨ꎬ웚좨돖폐헟폐톡퓱늻횴탐뗄좨샻ꆣ죧맻쫇ꆰ쪵횵ꆱ웚좨,뗈듽뛸늻쫇십짏횴탐킧맻룼뫃ꆣퟜ횮ꎬ쿖뷰쇷죫뗄늨뚯쪹뗃춶믺믡뗄볛횵맀[11]쯣몯쫽뮯ꎬ쯼늻퓙만뚨캪쒳튻룶쫽횵ꎬ뛸쫇튪룹뻝뻟쳥쟩뿶ퟷ뻟쳥럖컶ꆣ ퟜ쳥룅삨웰살ꎬ쪵컯웚좨맀횵샭싛뗄맛뗣폐죧쿂벸룶튪뗣ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ춶믺믡쫇춶폚캴살닺욷짺닺뗄좨샻,캴살닺욷뗄볛룱(믲쿖뷰쇷) Pt 뗄뇤뮯붫펰쿬헢훖좨샻뗄볛횵ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ춶돉놾뇤뮯튲믡펰쿬춶믺믡뗄웚좨볛횵ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ 돵쪼볛룱ꎨ떱웚쿖뷰쇷ꎩ뇤뮯튲믡펰쿬춶믺믡뗄웚좨볛횵ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ 쿂튻웚쿖뷰쇷늨뚯뗄룅싊럖늼뛔춶웚좨볛횵튲폐펰쿬ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ퓚쪵컯웚좨샭싛훐ꎬ럧쿕쫇믲폐볛횵뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ럧쿕쫇훐탔뗄ꎬ춶헟뛔럧쿕컞쯹캽욫뫃믲퇡뛱횮럖ꎬ쯻뛔쯹폐닺뗄풤웚쫕틦싊뚼횻튪쟳컞럧쿕쫕[12]틦싊ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ쪵컯웚좨쮼쿫뗄폅뗣퓚폚냑럧쿕쫓ퟷ믲폐볛횵뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ헢뻍룄뇤쇋뛔럧쿕뗄뒫춳죏쪶ꎬ쪹컒쏇뛔쿖뷰쇷솿늻좷뚨뗄춶뫍닺뗄맀횵폐쇋튻훖좫탂죏쪶뫍뷢뻶랽램ꆣ쪵컯웚좨맀횵샭싛훐ꎬ춶믺믡펵폐웚좨볛횵ꎬ뛸헢튻볛횵쫇쿖횵맀볛쒣탍NPV 램췪좫쎻폐훘쫓뗄ꆣ퓚룷맺톧헟뗄듳솦퇐뺿쿂ꎬ폚1989쓪KealhoferꆢMcquownꆢVasicek죽죋릲춬뒴솢쇋KMV맀횵쒣탍ꎬ헢튻쒣탍돽쇋뿉폃살볆쯣탅듻캥풼싊췢ꎬ튲퓋폃쇋쪵컯웚좨쮼쿫살움맀웳튵볛횵ꆣ틔뫳뗄뛾쪮뛠쓪볤ꎬ뫜뛠톧헟늻뛏뗘붫쪵컯웚좨샭싛펦폃폚놣쿕ꆢ쓜풴틔벰틸탐튵뗄춶뻶닟뫍웳튵볛횵움맀ꎬ좡뗃쇋뫜뫃뗄샭싛뷸햹ꆣ 16
웳튵볛횵움맀훐뗄훷튪랽램쒣탍 틔닺캪믹뒡뗄볛횵움맀랽램 돉놾램ꎨ닺믹뒡램ꎩ 돉놾램폖돆돉놾볓뫏램ꎨ믲닺믹뒡램Asset Based Approachꎩꎬ쫇횸닉폃튻훖믲튻훖틔짏뗄믹폚웳튵닺볛횵뗄움맀랽램ꎬ뿉틔폃살좷뚨웳튵ꆢ웳튵쯹[13]폐헟좨틦믲웳튵횤좯뗄볛횵ꎬ틔닺뢺햮뇭캪떼쿲ꆣ웳튵닺뢺햮뇭놾살뻍뿉틔쳥쿖웤쿖탐볛횵ꎬ뛸돉놾램ꎨ닺믹뒡램ꎩ늻뷶짦벰캴죫헋뗄폐탎닺ꆢ컞탎닺뫍뢺햮뗄좷뚨뫍움맀ꎬ춬쪱튲뛔틑볆죫닺뢺햮뇭훐뗄닺뫍뢺햮뷸탐훘맀ꆣ평폚헢훖랽램쿠뛔뷏캪볲떥쟒틗폚샭뷢ꎬ컒맺웳튵볛횵움맀뎤웚틔살닉폃닺믹뒡램뗄쪱뫲뷏웕뇩ꎬ튲쮵쏷웤폐뷏듳뗄쫊폃탔ꆣ 돉놾램ꎨ닺믹뒡램ꎩ뗄폅뗣훷튪쳥쿖퓚쿂쏦벸뗣ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ쯼뗄움맀뷡맻쫇틔맟폃뗄닺뢺햮뇭탎쪽뇭쪾ꎬ헢훖탎쪽죝틗냑컕ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ퓚움맀맽돌훐럖뇰뻍쎿튻훖닺맀쯣웤볛횵ꎬ뿉틔붫쎿튻훖닺뛔튵볛횵뗄릱쿗좫쏦뗘랴펳돶살ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ쯼뛔폚웳튵릺싲헟뫍돶쫛헟쮫랽퓚첸에훐뻹쫇폐폃뗄ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ웳튵훐룷떥쿮닺뗄떥뛀볛횵뫜죝틗뫢솿웤뛔웳튵볛횵뗄펰쿬돌뛈ꆣ헢훖랽램쓜뛔폚웳튵웆닺ꆢ뷢쳥틔벰닺훘ퟩ쪱짦벰뗄쯟쯏틀뻝뫍헹틩뷢뻶쳡릩폐킧틀뻝ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ쯼믱뗃뗄움맀뷡맻뇣폚뷸탐헋컱뒦샭ꆣ 퓚뻟쳥움맀훐ꎬ돉놾램쫗쿈붫놻움맀웳튵뾴돉냼몬룷훖짺닺튪쯘뗄ퟩ뫏쳥ꎬ퓚뛔룷쿮닺쟥닩뫋쪵뗄믹뒡짏훰튻뛔룷쿮뿉좷횸닺뷸탐움맀ꎬ늢좷죏웳튵쫇럱듦퓚짌폾믲뺭볃탔쯰뫄ꎬퟮ뫳붫룷떥쿮뿉좷횸닺움맀횮볓ퟜ뫳퓙볓짏웳튵뗄짌폾믲복좥웳튵뗄뺭볃탔쯰뫄ꎬ뗃떽웳튵볛횵뗄움맀횵ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ 웳튵헻쳥닺볛횵=ꇆ떥쿲뿉좷횸닺움맀횵+짌폾(믲-뺭볃탔쯰뫄) ꎨ릫쪽1ꎩ 컷랽쿖탐뗄뗷헻헋쏦볛횵램 헢훖볛횵움맀랽램튲쫇틔닺캪믹뒡ꎬ쯼뗄훘뗣퓚폚닢쯣웳튵뗄훘훃돉놾ꆣ뫍돉놾램늻춬ꎬ쯼룼볓쟣쿲폚랴펳웳튵뗄쫐뎡볛횵ꆣ쳘뇰쫇뫜뛠춶틸탐ꎬ뻍죏캪헢튻랽램닢쯣뗄뷡맻쳡릩쇋튻룶쿠뛔막욱쫐뎡볛룱뗄낲좫돌뛈믲놣헏돌뛈뗄뫢솿뇪ힼꎬ틲듋퓚쯹폐짦벰릫쮾볛횵움맀맽돌훐ꎬ뚼뇘탫닎뾼헢튻랽램뗄뷡맻ꆣ 퓚랢듯맺볒뗄웳튵닺볛횵맛훐ꎬ죋뗄볛횵햼폐훘튪뗘캻ꆣ쏀맺볛횵움맀샭싛볒뿆쓉뛻ꎨBradford Cornellꎩ죏캪웳튵뗄볛횵늻뷶랴펳퓚닺뗄훘훃돉놾ꎬ뛸쟒뇘탫냼삨쪮럖훘튪뗄ꆰퟩ횯놾ꆱꆣ웤뇭듯릫쪽캪ꎺ 웳튵볛횵=닺뗄훘훃돉놾+ퟩ횯놾 ꎨ릫쪽2ꎩ 17
웳튵뗄ퟩ횯놾뎬돶쇋죋솦풴뗄랶돫ꎬ쯼늻뷶쳥쿖쇋릫쮾훐죋뗄볛횵ꎬ뮹몭룇쇋뿍뮧맘쾵뗄볛횵틔벰헢킩볛횵캪웳튵뗄캴살랢햹쯹쓜듸살뗄랢햹믺믡ꆣ뺡맜헢튻볛횵쓑틔틔쫽뻝뛈솿ꎬ떫췹췹퓚쪵볊훐좷쪵캪막뚫듸살닆뢻ꆣ떫퇐뺿헟쏇튲힢틢떽ꎬ떱헢튻볛횵탨튪맀횵쪱ꎬ뎣뎣틀뾿닺움맀릫쮾뗄움맀쪦살뷸탐훷맛에뛏맀쯣ꎬ틲뛸좱랦튻룶쳘뚨뛸뺫ힼ뗄쫽톧쒣탍ꆣ 틔쫕죫캪믹뒡뗄쫐펯싊램 쫐펯싊쫇막볛폫쫕틦뗄뇈싊ꎬ쫐펯싊퓚움맀짏쫐릫쮾춶볛횵뗄횸뇪쳥쾵훐, 쫇ퟮ믹놾뗄횸뇪횮튻ꎬ춨맽쫐펯싊뗄룟뗍뿉틔맀볆룷막막볛룟뗍ꆢ랴펳웳튵뗄돉뎤탔ꆢ뫢솿막욱럧쿕ꆣ쫐펯싊램쫇퓚춨맽릫쮾풤웚쫕틦뫍풤웚쫐펯싊살맀쯣릫쮾ퟜ볛횵ꎬ랴펳쇋쫐뎡뛔릫쮾퓶뎤뗄풤웚ꎬ뷏룟뗄쫐펯싊붫뗃돶뷏룟뗄릫쮾볛횵ꆣ튻냣뗄ꎬ춶헟믡죏캪쫐펯싊뗄룟뗍늻뷶랴펳쇋막볛뫍쫕틦뗄뇈볛[14]맘쾵ꎬ뛸쟒랴펳쇋릫쮾믱좡쫕틦뗄놣헏돌뛈틔벰릫쮾뗄룷랽쏦쯘훊ꆣ 쫐펯싊램뗄폅뗣퓚폚볲떥쟒틗폚쪹폃, 쯹탨튪뗄쫽뻝튲틗폚믱뗃ꆣ펦폃룃랽램뿉틔톸쯙믱뗃웳튵뗄막좨볛횵, 폈웤쫇떱뷰죚쫐뎡짏폐듳솿ꆰ뿉뇈ꆱ닺뷸탐붻틗ꆢ늢쟒쫐뎡뛔헢킩닺뗄뚨볛쫇믹놾헽좷뗄쪱뫲ꆣ떱좻ꎬ헢훖랽램튲폐펦폃짏뗄뻖쿞ꎺꎨ1ꎩ쫊뫏막럝훆뗄짏쫐웳튵ꎬ뛸웤쯻쯹폐훆탎쪽뗄웳튵퓚좷뚨쫐뎡볛횵짏뻍뇈뷏삧쓑ꆣꎨ2ꎩ쫊뫏뷏캪돉쫬뗄ꆢ쫐펯싊쿠뛔뫏샭뗄횤좯쫐뎡ꎬ뿉퓚쫐펯싊웕뇩욫룟뗄탂탋횤좯쫐뎡짏ꎬ췆뛏뗄막욱볛룱튲믡욫샫볛횵뷏뛠ꆣ 쫐펯싊뗄톡좡훷튪뾼싇틔쿂솽뗣ꎺ톡좡뫏쫊뗄뇪ힼ쫐펯싊ꎬ뛔뇪ힼ쫐펯싊뷸탐뗷헻ꆣ퓚좷뚨믹놾쫐펯싊틔뫳ꎬ뻍뿉틔좷뚨막좨볛횵ꎬ믹놾릫쪽죧쿂ꎺ 막좨볛횵=풤웚샻죳*쫐펯싊 ꎨ릫쪽3ꎩ 쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖벼쫵뗄볛횵움맀랽램ꎨDCF램ꎩ 뫜뛠톧헟죏캪퓚웳튵볦늢폫쫕릺뗄맽돌훐ꎬ쒿뇪릫쮾뛔폚춶헟ꎨ쫕릺랽ꎩ뗄볛횵퓚폚웤퓚놻쫕릺뫳쯹쓜뒴퓬뗄ꆰퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿ꆱ뗄헛쿖볛횵ꆣ쯹캽ꆰퟔ평쿖뷰쇷솿ꆱꎨFree Cashflowꎩ쫇횸릫쮾뺭펪믮뚯뗄쿖뷰쇷죫뿛돽릫쮾쯹폐뗄횧돶ꎬ냼삨뺭펪돉놾뾪횧ꆢ펪퓋놾뗄퓶솿ꆢ놾탔횧돶퓶솿ꆢ샻쾢ꆢ쮰쫕횧돶뗈쯹탎돉뗄뺻쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ헢훖뺻쿖뷰쇷솿쫇뿉틔놻춶헟ퟔ평횧엤뗄뷰ꆣ퓚듋샭싛믹뒡짏ꎬ쿖뷱틑뺭랢햹돶살솽듳뎣폃뗄맀횵쒣탍ꎺ쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍뫍뺭볃샻죳쒣탍ꆣ헢솽훖쒣탍퓚쪵볹훐뻹폐듳솿퓋폃ꎬ쯼쏇늻뷶쒣탍쿠뛔퇏뷷췪짆ꎬ퓚움맀쪵볹훐튲믽샛쇋듳솿돉릦낸샽ꎬ캪웳튵볛횵움맀뷧쯹맣랺쪹폃ꆣ 쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍 쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍쫇쿖뷱웳튵볛횵움맀훐쪹폃ퟮ맣랺ꆢ샭싛짏ퟮ붡좫뗄쒣탍ꆣ뻟쳥폖냼삨막좨쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍뫍쪵쳥쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍ꆣ 막좨쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍뗄믹놾탎쪽캪ꎺ웳튵볛횵= 막좨볛횵+ 햮컱볛횵, 18
벴ꎺ ∞dt =S+B=+B ꎨ릫쪽4ꎩ ∑V11t(1+k)t=1s짏쪽훐ꎺV캪막좨쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍볆쯣뗄웳튵볛횵,S 캪막좨볛횵,B 캪11햮컱볛횵,dt 캪뗚t 쓪막좨쿖뷰쇷솿,Ks 캪좨틦놾돉놾싊,튻냣죏캪쫇막뚫튪쟳쏖늹룃막욱쫐뎡럧쿕뗄놨돪싊ꆣ룹뻝놾닺뚨볛쒣탍ꎬ폐좨틦놾돉놾릫쪽ꎺk=R+β(R−RꆣR캪컞럧쿕놨돪싊, R캪쫐뎡욽뻹럧쿕놨돪싊,βsfmffm캪쒳막욱믲쒳춶ퟩ뫏뗄β횵ꎬ뇭듯쇋룃막욱뗄쾵춳럧쿕듳킡ꆣ뛔폚쒳튻쳘뚨막욱ꎬ웤좨틦놾돉놾횻폫웤좷뚨뗄β횵폐맘ꎬ틲듋좨틦놾돉놾k튲쫇좷뚨s뗄ꆣ 춨뎣퓚룃쒣탍쿂컒쏇믡ퟶ죧쿂볙짨ꎺꎨ1ꎩ웳튵뷱뫳쎿쓪횧뢶만뚨뗄쿖뷰막샻ꎻꎨ2ꎩ웳튵늻퓶랢늢쟒튲늻믘릺막욱ꎻꎨ3ꎩ폐쾢햮컱폠뛮뫍쎿웚햮좯샻쾢퓚뷱뫳룷쓪뚼놣돖늻뇤ꆣ듋죽룶볙뚨쳵볾춬쪱돉솢뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ폃막좨쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍뫍쪵쳥쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍볆쯣뗄웳튵볛횵쫇쿠뗈뗄ꎬ틲캪헢솽훖랽램볆쯣뗄풭샭뫍쫽솿맘쾵짏놾살뻍쿠춬ꎬ횻늻맽쫇쯼쏇럖뇰폃춬튻웳튵뗄훷쳥뗄룷쓪막좨쿖뷰쇷솿뫍쪵쳥쿖뷰쇷솿뛔펦룷ퟔ뗄헛쿖싊헛쿖살쟳뗃웳튵헻쳥볛횵ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ벴쪹럅뾪죽룶볙짨쳵볾ꎬ솽훖쒣탍볆쯣돶살뗄맀횵쿠뗈헢튻쏼쳢튲쫇돉[15]솢뗄ꆣ 뺭볃샻죳쒣탍 뺭볃샻죳ꎨEconomic Profitꎬ볲돆EPꎩꎬ폖돆쪣폠쫕죫ꎨResidual Income)ꎬ퓚뺭볃톧훐뗈춬폚샻죳뗄룅쓮ꎬ벴폐샭탔뗄샻죳ꆣ뺭볃샻죳쫇횸뺭볃쫕죫복좥뺭볃돉놾뫳뗄쪣폠ꆣ 펢맺뷼듺뺭볃톧볒낢뛻뢥샗뗂ꆤ십킪뛻ꎨAlfred Marshall)(1842--1942)쫗쿈쳡돶쇋뺭볃샻죳뗄쮼쿫뫍룅쓮ꆣ십킪뛻쫇붣쟅톧엉ꎨ탂맅뗤톧엉ꎩ뗄뒴쪼죋뫍쏻훸ꆶ뺭볃톧풭샭ꆷ뗄ퟷ헟, 1890쓪ꎬ쯻퓚돶냦뗄쫩훐킴뗀:ꆰ( 쯹폐헟믲뺭샭뗄) 샻죳퓚내쿖탐샻싊뿛돽쇋놾샻쾢뫳쯹쪣뗄늿럖, 뿉돆캪뺭펪쫕 [16]틦믲맜샭쫕틦ꆱ ꆣ쯻죏캪움맀릫쮾뗄볛횵뫍튵벨쪱펦돤럖뾼싇믱뗃뗄샻죳폫햼폃뗄뷰뗄뛔뇈ꎬ횻폐떱릫쮾춶죫놾쓜좡뗄샻죳뎬맽웤놾돉놾쪱ꎬ릫쮾닅헦헽뒴퓬쇋볛횵ꎬ헢닅쫇폐틦뗄퓶뎤ꆣ뺭볃퓶볓볛횵ꎨEconomic Value Addedꎬ볲돆EVAꎩ볆쯣쒣탍쫇평벪쒷ꆤ쮹뗙쒷ꎨJoem Stem ꎩ뗈죋룹뻝십킪뛻뗄뺭볃샻죳풭샭쫗뛈쳡돶ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ헢튻쒣탍늻뷶퓚쏀얷맺볒뗃떽뷏맣랺죏뿉ꎬ튲퓚뫜뛠듳벯췅뗄늢릺틔벰훘ퟩ맽돌훐랢믓쇋훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ 퓚헢튻샭싛쿂닺짺쇋뺭볃샻죳뗄벸훖믹놾볆쯣릫쪽ꎬ럖뇰뿉틔뇭쫶죧쿂ꎺ Pe=E−T×K ꎨ릫쪽5ꎩ tttW 19
Pe=T(K−K) ꎨ릫쪽6ꎩ tet1웤훐ꎬPe캪뺭볃샻죳ꎬE캪쾢잰쮰뫳샻죳ꎬT캪놾ퟜ뛮ꎬK캪볓좨욽tttw뻹놾ꎬK캪놾쫕틦싊ꎬK캪춶헟튪쟳뗄믘놨싊ꆣퟮ훕ꎬ폃뺭볃샻죳램et1볆쯣웳튵볛횵ꎬ뿉틔붫뗚튻웚웚돵뗄춶놾뛮볓짏듋뫳룷웚뗄뺭볃샻죳내헕볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾헛쿖횵횮뫍살볆쯣쟳뗃ꎬ릫쪽캪ꎺ ∞E−T×KttwV=T+ ꎨ릫쪽7ꎩ 0∑t(1+K)t= 놾닺뚨볛쒣탍 룃랽램붫춶뗄럧쿕쟸럖캪쾵춳탔럧쿕ꎨSystematic Riskꎩ뫍럇쾵춳탔럧쿕ꎨUnsysmatic Riskꎩꎬ쫇튻훖퓚횤좯쫐뎡짏쫜떽웕뇩죏뿉뗄횤좯맀횵랽램ꆣ 쾵춳탔럧쿕벴쫐뎡럧쿕ꆣ쫇횸횤좯춶놾짭쯹뻟폐뗄춶럧쿕ꎬ헢훖럧쿕늻쓜춨맽퓚춶욷훖짏럖즢춶살맦뇜ꎬ쯹틔춨뎣폖놻돆횮캪늻뿉럖즢럧쿕ꆣ쯼훷튪냼삨헾닟럧쿕ꆢ뺭볃훜웚탔늨뚯럧쿕ꆢ샻싊럧쿕ꆢ릺싲솦럧쿕ꆢ믣싊럧쿕뗈ꆣ뛸럇쾵춳럧쿕쫇횸평폚횤좯쫐뎡헻쳥늨뚯탎돉뗄춶럧쿕ꆣ쯼춨뎣평쒳튻쳘쫢뗄틲쯘틽웰ꎬ폫헻룶횤좯쫐뎡뗄볛룱늻듦퓚쾵춳뗄좫쏦솪쾵ꎬ뛸횻뛔룶뇰믲짙쫽횤좯뗄쫕틦닺짺펰쿬ꆣ쯹틔튲돆ꆰ쳘폐럧쿕ꆱ믲헟ꆰ뿉럖즢럧쿕ꆱꆣ샽죧릤죋냕릤ꆢ쪧좥훘튪쿺쫛뫏춬ꆢ쯟쯏쪧냜뗈ꆣ헢훖럧쿕뿉틔춨맽뛠퇹뮯춶살럖즢ꆣ 춶헟뗄쫕틦펦쫇돐떣솽훖럧쿕뗄늹뎥ꎬ붨솢퓚틔짏볙짨뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ놾닺뚨볛쒣탍샭싛쳡돶쇋횤좯쫕틦싊뗄맀쯣쒣탍ꎺ R=R+β(R−R) ꎨ릫쪽8ꎩ SRFMRF 웤훐ꎬR쫇횤좯뗄풤웚쫕틦싊ꎬR캪:컞럧쿕샻싊쮮욽ꎨ춨뎣캪뛌웚맺SRF햮샻싊ꎩꎬR캪헻룶쫐뎡뗄춶쫕틦싊ꎬβ캪튻훖횤좯뗄쫕틦싊쿠뛔쫐뎡쫕틦M싊뗄뇤뚯쾵쫽ꆣ 쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍 쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍(RIM) 폖놻돆캪EBO쒣탍ꎬퟮ퓧쫇평낮뗂뮪( Edwards) 뫍놴뛻(Bell ) 폚1961쓪쳡돶ꎬ떫퓚떱쪱늢쎻폐틽웰샭싛뷧ퟣ릻뗄훘쫓ꎬ횱떽1995쓪ꎬ쏀맺톧헟냂뛻즭(Ohlson) 퓚웤컄헂ꆶ좨틦맀볛훐뗄쫕틦ꆢ헋쏦볛횵뫍막샻ꆷ훐뛔웤뷸탐쇋쾵춳뗄닻쫶ꎬ늢붨솢쇋릫쮾좨틦볛횵폫믡볆뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵,닅쪹룃랽램훘탂놻맘힢ꎬ늢돉캪뷼쪮쓪살쏀맺닆컱톧ꆢ믡볆톧뷧ퟮ죈쏅뗄퇐뺿[17]훷쳢횮튻ꆣ냂뛻즭횸돶ꎺ쪣폠쫕틦쫇횸릫쮾뗄뺻샻죳폫막뚫쯹튪쟳뗄놨돪횮닮ꎬ웳튵횻폐좡쇋뎬맽막뚫튪쟳놨돪뗄뺻샻죳뫳ꎬ닅믱뗃헽뗄쪣폠쫕틦ꎬ죧맻횻쓜믱뗃쿠떱폚막뚫튪쟳놨돪뗄샻죳,뷶뷶쫇쪵쿖쇋헽뎣쫕틦ꆣ 20
쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍쟳뗃릫쮾좨틦뗄헋쏦볛횵뫍풤웚쪣폠쫕틦뗄쿖횵살랴펦막욱뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꆣ퓚뾼싇믵뇒쪱볤볛횵틔벰춶헟쯹튪쟳뗄럧쿕놨돪쟩뿶쿂ꎬ붫웳튵풤웚쪣폠쫕틦내헕튻뚨뗄쳹쿖싊뷸탐쳹쿖뫳ꎬ퓙볓짏떱웚좨틦볛횵뻍쫇막욱뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꎬ웤믹놾릫쪽캪: −tPV=BV+RI∗(1+r) ꎨ릫쪽9ꎩ 00∑t헢룶쒣탍닉쓉쇋헛쿖쿖뷰쇷솿쒣탍훐믵뇒뗄쪱볤볛횵ꆢ럧쿕폫쫕틦뛔뗈풭퓲ꎬ춬쪱폫뒫춳뗄랽램폐쯹늻춬ꎬ쯼늻듓샻죳럖엤뷇뛈돶랢,뛸쫇듓웳튵뗄볛횵뒴퓬맛뗣뾼싇컊쳢ꆣ웳튵뗄튻쟐짺닺뺭펪믮뚯뚼쫇캧죆볛횵뒴퓬뷸탐뗄ꎬ웤뷡맻믡퓚닆컱놨뇭짏뗃떽ퟮ훕랴펳ꎬ틲듋룼캪쳹쟐뗘랴펳쇋웳튵뗄헦쪵쟩뿶ꆣ 웚좨맀볛쒣탍 쪵컯웚좨(real options) 뗄룅쓮ퟮ돵쫇평쏀맺싩쪡쮹슡맜샭톧풺뷰죚톧뷌쫚쮹춼뛻쳘·싵뛻쮹ꎨStewart Myersꎩ폚1977쓪쳡돶, 쯻횸돶튻룶춶랽낸닺짺뗄쿖뷰쇷솿쯹뒴퓬뗄샻죳살ퟔ폚쒿잰쯹펵폐닺뗄쪹폃, 퓙볓짏튻룶뛔[18]캴살춶믺믡뗄톡퓱ꆣ쯻뗄쮼쿫ퟅ훘횸돶ꎺ웳튵뿉틔좡뗃튻룶좨샻, 헢훖좨샻뿉틔죃웳튵퓚캴살틔튻뚨볛룱좡뗃믲돶쫛튻쿮쪵컯닺믲춶볆뮮ꆣ틲듋ꎬ[19]쪵컯닺뗄춶뿉틔펦폃샠쯆움맀튻냣웚좨뗄랽쪽살뷸탐움맀ꆣ헢훖웚좨헽틲캪뇪뗄컯쫇쪵컯닺ꎬ쯹틔죋쏇쾰맟붫쯼돆횮캪쪵컯웚좨ꆣꆰ샻폃쪵컯웚좨랽램뿉틔좷뚨늢릺훐틾몬뗄웚좨볛횵ꎬ좻뫳붫쪵컯웚좨볛횵볓죫떽뒫춳움맀랽램[20]볆쯣돶살뗄뺲첬뺻쿖횵훐좥ꎬ헢퇹닅쫇뛔웳튵늢릺볛횵뗄췪헻움맀ꆣꆱ 틅몶뗄쫇ꎬ컒쏇쿖폐틑뺭췪돉뗄튻킩퇐뺿퓚쪵컯웚좨뗄쫽톧쒣탍짏늢쎻폐탎돉뇈뷏췪쏀뗄샭싛쳥쾵ꎬ쯤좻튲폐튻킩쒣탍랢뇭늢쟒뗃떽맘힢ꎬ떫쫇뚼믲뛠믲짙듦퓚ퟅ튻킩펦폃짏뗄좱뗣ꎬ헢뗣뇊헟믡퓚뗚죽헂ퟶ룼볓쿪쾸뗄럖컶뷩짜ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ퓚쪵볊펦폃훐췹췹평폚헢랽쏦뗄샭싛뇈뷏탂펱ꎬ떼훂뫜뛠웳튵볒늢늻쇋뷢벰죏춬ꎬ쯹틔퓚헢훖랽램퓚펦폃훐낸샽뷏짙ꎬ틅몶뷏뛠ꎬ헢튲쫇뇊헟톡좡헢훖랽램볓틔훘뗣퇐뺿뗄훷튪샭평ꆣ 쒣뫽움맀램 쒣뫽움맀쫇틔쒣뫽쫽톧캪믹뒡ꎬ펦폃쒣뫽맘쾵뫏돉뗄풭샭ꎬ붫튻킩뇟뷧늻쟥ꆢ늻틗뚨솿뗄틲쯘뷸탐뚨솿뮯ퟛ뫏움맀뗄랽램ꆣ평폚펰쿬웳튵볛횵뗄틲쯘잡뫃폐탐튵ꆢ뗘쟸뗈늻틗뚨솿뗄뚨탔틲쯘ꎬ뮹폐쿱욷없ꆢ뺺헹솦뗈뇟뷧늻쟥뗄틲쯘ꎬ틲듋쒣뫽움맀램뻍쫇춨맽뛔뚨탔ꆢ뚨솿틲쯘횸뇪좷뚨뗈벶쇬폲ꎬ폃쒣뫽맘쾵헳뛔뚨탔ꆢ뚨솿횸뇪뷸탐쒣뫽솿뮯ꎬ퓙춨맽쒣뫽좨쿲솿폫쒣뫽맘쾵헳뫏돉뗃떽쒣뫽움맀쿲솿ꎬ뷸뛸뗃떽룷웳튵볛횵뗄쒣뫽ퟛ뫏움럖ꆣ 뷼쓪살ꎬ쒣뫽뺭볃쫽톧뗄랢햹놻퓋폃떽움맀훐살ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚튻킩뒫춳맀횵랽램뷏쓑랢믓ퟷ폃뗄탐튵쇬폲ꎬ쒣뫽볛횵움맀폐쇋뎤ퟣ뗄퇐뺿랢햹ꆣ 21
뗚죽헂 룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵럖컶 .룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵쳘헷럖컶 룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄룅쓮 룟탂벼쫵폖돆캪룟벼쫵ꎬ쯼쫇튻룶뚯첬랢햹뗄룅쓮ꎬ뺭볃뫏ퟷ랢햹ퟩ횯ꎨOECDꎩ캪룟벼쫵ퟶ돶쇋쇋죧쿂뚨틥ꎺ룟벼쫵쫇횸쓇킩탨튪틔돤싺믮솦뫍돖탸뷸늽뗄퇐뺿뫍뾪랢캪믹뒡뗄톸쯙랢햹뫍룟뛈ퟛ뫏뗄뺭볃늿쏅ꆣ뛸쯦ퟅ죋쏇쯹뒦뗄짧믡뺭볃놳뺰늻뛏뇤뮯ꎬ헢룶룅쓮튲쫇뎣뮻뎣탂뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄죏뚨뇪ힼ튲쪱뎣쯦ퟅ뿆톧벼쫵뗄뇤뮯ꆢ컄뮯쯘훊뗄랢햹ꆢ짧믡뺭볃쮮욽뗄쳡룟뛸랢짺룄뇤ꆣ 춨뎣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ룟탂벼쫵웳튵췹췹횸쓇킩퇐뺿뾪랢ꆢ짺닺쿺쫛룟벼쫵닺욷믲듳맦쒣퓋폃룟탂벼쫵뗄웳튵ꆣ떱좻ꎬ늻춬뗄맺볒평폚벼쫵랢햹쮮욽늻춬ꎬ뛔폚룟벼쫵웳튵뗄죏뚨뇪ힼퟔ좻튲폐돶죫ꆣ폫맺췢쿠뇈ꎬ컒맺뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄죏뚨쏅볷쿠뛔뷏뗍ꆣ퓚2008쓪4퓂14죕ꎬ컒맺맺볒뿆벼늿ꆢ닆헾늿ꆢ쮰컱ퟜ뻖솪뫏쿂컄ꎨ맺뿆랢믰ꆲ2008ꆳ172뫅ꎩꎬ훘탂훆뚨쇋탂뗄룟탂벼쫵뮮럖랶캧뫍룟탂벼쫵웳튵죏뚨쳵볾ꎬ뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄퇐뺿뾪랢믮뚯쳡돶쇋룼룟튪쟳ꆣ헢럝컄볾뛔컒맺룟탂벼쫵웳튵뚨틥죧쿂ꎺ퓚ꆶ맺볒훘뗣횧돖뗄룟탂벼쫵쇬폲ꆷꎨ힢ꎺ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵ꆢ짺컯폫탂튽튩벼쫵ꆢ몽뿕몽쳬벼쫵ꆢ탂닄쇏벼쫵ꆢ룟벼쫵럾컱튵ꆢ탂쓜풴벰뷚쓜벼쫵ꆢ풴폫뮷뺳벼ꆢ룟탂벼쫵룄퓬뒫춳닺튵ꎩ쓚ꎬ돖탸뷸탐퇐뺿뾪랢폫벼쫵돉맻뮯ꎬ탎돉웳튵뫋탄ퟔ훷횪쪶닺좨ꎬ늢틔듋캪믹뒡뾪햹뺭펪믮뚯ꎬ퓚훐맺뺳쓚ꎨ늻냼삨룛ꆢ냄ꆢ첨뗘쟸ꎩ힢닡튻쓪틔짏뗄뻓쏱웳튵ꆣ[21]쯼쫇횪쪶쏜벯ꆢ벼쫵쏜벯뗄뺭볃쪵쳥ꆣ 룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄럖샠 본폚쪵폃탔폅쿈ꎬ쯹틔놾컄쳡떽뗄럖샠뫍뷧뚨뻹틔컒맺뇪ힼ캪훷ꆣ 룹뻝뿆벼늿ꆢ닆헾늿ꆢ맺볒쮰컱ퟜ뻖ꆶ맺볒훘뗣횧돖뗄룟탂벼쫵쇬폲ꆷꎨ맺뿆랢믰[2008]172뫅ꎩ횮맦뚨,맺볒훘뗣횧돖뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵폐냋듳쇬폲ꆢ37샠ꎬ릲223훖ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳튵 ꋙ죭볾샠웳튵 ꋚ캢뗧ퟓ벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋛ볆쯣믺벰췸싧벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋜ춨탅벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋝ맣능뗧쫓벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋞ탂탍뗧ퟓ풪웷볾샠웳튵 22
ꋟ탅쾢낲좫벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋠ훇쓜붻춨벼쫵샠웳튵 ꎨ2ꎩ짺컯폫탂튽튩벼쫵쇬폲 ꋙ튽튩짺컯벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋚ훐튩ꆢ쳬좻튩컯샠웳튵 ꋛ뮯톧튩욷샠웳튵 ꋜ탂볁탍벰훆볁벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋝ튽쇆틇웷벼쫵ꆢ짨놸폫튽톧폃죭볾샠웳튵 ꋞ쟡릤뫍뮯릤짺컯벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋟ쿖듺얩튵벼쫵샠웳튵 ꎨ3ꎩ몽뿕몽쳬벼쫵쇬폲 ꋙ쏱폃량믺벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋚ뿕훐맜훆쾵춳 ꋛ탂튻듺쏱폃몽뿕퓋탐놣헏쾵춳 ꋜ컀탇춨탅펦폃쾵춳 ꋝ컀탇떼몽펦폃럾컱쾵춳 ꎨ4ꎩ탂닄쇏벼쫵쇬폲 ꋙ뷰쫴닄쇏 샠웳튵 ꋚ컞믺럇뷰쫴닄쇏샠웳튵 ꋛ룟럖ퟓ닄쇏샠웳튵 ꋜ짺컯튽폃닄쇏샠웳튵 ꋝ뺫쾸뮯톧욷샠웳튵 ꎨ5ꎩ룟벼쫵럾컱튵쇬폲 ꋙ릲탔벼쫵샠웳튵ꎺ뻟폐ퟔ훷횪쪶닺좨ꆢ쏦쿲탐튵쳘뚨탨쟳뗄릲탔벼쫵 ꋚ쿖듺컯쇷웳튵ꎺ뻟놸ퟔ훷횪쪶닺좨뗄쿖듺컯쇷맜샭쾵춳믲욽첨벼쫵ꎻ뻟놸ퟔ훷횪쪶닺좨뗄릩펦솴맜샭쾵춳믲욽첨벼쫵뗈ꆣ ꋛ벯돉뗧슷샠웳튵 ꋜ튵컱쇷돌췢냼ꎨBPOꎩ샠웳튵 ꋝ컄뮯뒴틢닺튵횧독벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋞ릫릲럾컱샠웳튵 ꋟ벼쫵톯럾컱샠웳튵ꎺ탅쾢뮯쾵춳톯럾컱ꆢ랽낸짨볆ꆢ벯돉탔맦뮮뗈ꆣ ꋠ뺫쏜뢴퓓쒣뻟짨볆샠웳튵 ꋡ짺컯튽튩벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋢ릤튵짨볆샠웳튵 23
ꎨ6ꎩ탂쓜풴벰뷚쓜벼쫵쇬폲 ꋙ뿉퓙짺쟥뷠쓜풴벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋚ뫋쓜벰쟢쓜샠웳튵 ꋛ탂탍룟킧쓜솿뮻폫뒢듦벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋜ룟킧뷚쓜벼쫵샠웳튵 ꎨ7ꎩ풴폫뮷뺳벼쫵쇬폲 ꋙ쮮컛좾뿘훆벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋚ듳웸컛좾뿘훆벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋛ만쳥럏웺컯뗄뒦샭폫ퟛ뫏샻폃벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋜ뮷뺳볠닢벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋝ짺첬뮷뺳붨짨폫놣뮤벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋞ쟥뷠짺닺폫톭뮷뺭볃벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋟ풴룟킧뾪랢폫ퟛ뫏샻폃벼쫵샠웳튵 ꎨ8ꎩ룟탂벼쫵룄퓬뒫춳닺튵쇬폲 ꋙ릤튵짺닺맽돌뿘훆쾵춳샠웳튵 ꋚ룟탔쓜ꆢ훇쓜뮯틇웷틇뇭샠웳튵 ꋛ쿈뷸훆퓬벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋜ탂탍믺킵샠웳튵 ꋝ뗧솦쾵춳탅쾢뮯폫ퟔ뚯뮯벼쫵샠웳튵 ꋞ웻뎵탐튵쿠맘벼쫵샠웳튵 룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄돉뎤훜웚뫍맀횵럾컱뛔쿳 ퟝ맛룟탂웳튵뗄랢햹맽돌ꎬ튻냣뿉틔럖캪죧쿂쯄룶뷗뛎ꎬ떱좻늢럇쎿룶웳튵좫늿믡뺭샺헢쯄룶뷗뛎ꎬ폐쪱뿉쓜믡돶쿖쒳킩춻뷸뗄뇤뮯ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ훖ퟓ웚ꎺ벴퇐뺿뫍뾪랢뷗뛎ꎬ헢쪱뫲ꎬ닺욷뗄ퟮ돵뾪랢틑뺭듳뛠췪돉ꎬ튲뾪쪼폐뷏캪췪헻뗄뺭펪볆뮮ꎬ떫닺욷뮹쎻폐헦헽엺솿짺닺뫍뷸죫쫐뎡ꆣ헢튻뷗뛎퓚췢늿춶믹뷰뾴살췹췹듦퓚뷏듳뗄쫐뎡럧쿕ꎬ쯹틔뫜쓑쫜떽럧쿕춶뗄쟠ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ쫐뎡떼죫웚ꎺ룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄닺욷뾪쪼뷸죫쫐뎡뷓쫜뾼퇩ꎬ웳튵랢햹뷸죫쇙뷧뷗뛎ꆣ헢룶쪱뫲ꎬ쫐뎡헽퓚잰웚뾪췘ꎬ쿺쫛쫕죫폐쿞ꎬ쿖뷰쇷췹췹뒦폚뢺횵ꎬ헢튲쫇룟탂웳튵ퟮ탨튪뷰춶죫뗄쪱뿌ꎬ뛸폐풶볻뗄럧쿕뷰뺭맽퇏뷷뗄맀횵에뛏ꎬ뻍뿉쓜뾪쪼퓧웚뷩죫ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ돉뎤웚ꎺ헢쫇횸룟탂벼쫵웳튵닺욷뗃떽쫐뎡죏뿉ꎬ쿺쫛쫕죫뻧퓶뗄뷗뛎ꎬ웳튵닺욷욷없뗈뾪쪼폐쇋튻뚨뗄횪쏻뛈ꎬ맜샭뛓컩튲컈뚨돉쫬ꆣ헢튻쪱웚웳튵뗄럧쿕틑뺭붵뗍ꎬ뷰살풴훷튪쫇햽싔놾뫍틸탐탅듻ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ돉쫬폫컈뚨웚ꎺ헢튻뷗뛎웳튵뗄벼쫵돉쫬ꎬ닺욷뗃떽쫐뎡죏뿉ꎬ짺닺ꆢ 24
쿺쫛뫍럾컱뗄쒣쪽튲뷏췪짆ꆣ듋쪱뗄웳튵틑탎돉ퟔ짭뗄웳튵컄뮯럕캧뫍폐킧뗄맜샭쒣쪽ꎬ웳튵뗄쿺쫛쫕죫ꆢ쿖뷰쇷뫍샻죳뿬쯙퓶볓ꎬ뾪쪼돖탸짮뛈펯샻뫳ꎬ췹췹뾪쪼첽톰짏쫐퓙죚횮슷ꆣ 퓚헢룶돉뎤훜웚훐ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ퓚뗚뛾ꆢ죽뷗뛎훐ꎬ죚뗄웈쟐탔튻횱듦퓚ꆣ컞싛쫇닉좡쿖듺뮯램죋훎샭뷡릹ꆢ랢햹ힳ듳헻룶웳튵ꎬ뮹쫇틽뷸럧쿕춶ꆢ좡뗃떣놣틔벰뗖톺듻뿮ꎬ틔훁폚짏쫐죚뗈ꎬ퓚헢룶맽돌훐뚼쪮럖탨튪움맀믺릹뛔웳튵볛횵뷸탐움맀ꎬ듓뛸뛔췢늿뗄춶뷰쳡릩튻룶ힼ좷뗄웳튵헻쳥맀횵틀뻝ꆣ헢훖움맀ꎬ퓚컒맺훷튪럾컱폚틔쿂벸훖폃춾ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ뛔늢릺훐뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뷸탐움맀ꎺ퓚쿖듺쫐뎡뺭볃훐ꎬ쫕릺ꆢ늢릺ꆢ볦늢뗈놾퓋ퟷ틑뺭럇뎣웕뇩ꎬ퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄랢햹훐튲냧퇝ퟅ훘튪뷇즫ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뷸탐횱뷓럧쿕춶ꎬ듓뛸뷸탐볛횵움맀ꎺ컼쫕럧쿕춶쫇뫜뛠룟탂벼쫵웳튵퓚랢햹훐폶볻뷰뛌좱쪱뎣폃뗄죚쫖뛎ꆣ퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵훐ꎬ럧쿕춶뗄춶죫튲늻쫇쎤쒿뗄ꎬ탨튪쫂쿈뷸탐췪짆뷷짷뗄움맀ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ뒴튵냥웳튵짏쫐잰뫳뗄볛횵움맀ꎺ컒맺뗄횤좯붻틗쫐뎡폚2009쓪9퓂뾪쪼헽쪽돉솢뒴튵냥횤좯붻틗냥뿩ꎬ훁2010쓪2퓂뗗캪횹ꎬ틑뺭폐58횻뒴튵냥막욱돉릦짏쫐ꎬ뗇슼짮?횤좯붻틗쫐뎡ꆣ뛸헢킩막욱훐ꎬ뫜뛠뻹캪룟탂벼쫵웳튵ꆣ캪쇋죃쿖쪵뗄ꆢ잱퓚뗄춶헟쇋뷢룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄펯샻쒣쪽뫍볛횵ꎬ뛔웤뷸탐뷏캪ힼ좷뗄볛횵움맀튲돉캪튻훖쫐뎡탨쟳ꆣ쿂쏦쫇뇊헟쏅뛔헢58횻뒴튵냥훐뗄룟탂웳튵뗄춳볆쫽뻝ꎬ듓쿂쏦뗄춼뇭뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뷘훁2010쓪2퓂28죕ꎬ퓚컒맺짮횤뒴튵냥짏쫐뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵릲39횻ꎬ햼떽ퟜ쫽뗄%ꎬ돤럖쳥쿖쇋룟탂벼쫵웳튵퓚컒맺뗄엮늪랢햹ꎬ튲짮뿌쳥쿖쇋컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵죚뗄듳솦횧돖ꆣ 뇭3-1 컒맺뒴튵냥쫐뎡룟탂벼쫵웳튵룅뿶 횤좯듺횤좯쏻돆 훷펪튵컱 쯹쫴쇬폲 싫 300002 짱훝첩퓀 쳡릩IT맜샭뗄헻쳥뷢뻶랽낸ꎬ죭볾닺욷뾪튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳랢폫쿺쫛ꆢ벼쫵럾컱뫍쿠펦뗄쾵춳벯돉 튵 300003 샖웕튽쇆 맚ힴ뚯싶뷩죫튽쇆웷킵뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺뫍쿺쫛뛾ꆢ짺컯폫탂튽튩쇬폲 300006 삳쏀튩튵 뾹룐좾샠튩컯뫍쳘즫뿆폃튩ꎨ몬뾹훗쇶샠뛾ꆢ짺컯폫탂튽튩벼튩컯뫍뎦췢펪퇸튩뗈ꎩ뗄짺닺폫쿺쫛ꆣ 쫵쇬폲 300007 몺췾뗧ퟓ 웸쳥뒫룐웷ꆢ웸쳥볬닢틇웷틇뇭ꆢ웸쳥볬닢냋ꆢ룟탂벼쫵룄퓬뒫뿘훆쾵춳뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛벰ퟔ펪닺욷돶춳닺튵쇬폲 뿚 300009 낲뿆짺컯 짺컯훆욷뗄퇐뺿ꆢ뾪랢ꆢ짺닺뫍쿺쫛 뛾ꆢ짺컯ꆢ탂튽튩벼 25
쫵쇬폲 300010 솢쮼뎽 냬릫탅쾢쾵춳뷢뻶랽낸벰럾컱 튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳튵 300011 뚦몺벼쫵 맬뗀붻춨뗧풴쾵춳뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛ꆢ낲튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳ힰ뫍캬뮤 튵 300013 탂쓾컯쇷 캪뗧ퟓ탅쾢닺튵릩펦솴훐뗄풭쇏릩펦ꆢ닉릺컥ꆢ룟벼쫵럾컱튵쇬폫짺닺뮷뷚쳡릩뗚죽랽ퟛ뫏컯쇷럾컱 폲 300014 틚캳쓜 훇쓜뗧췸ꆢ짤욵쪶뇰뗈쇬폲ꎬ쳡릩룟쓜뎤쫙ꆢ쇹ꆢ탂쓜풴벰뷚쓜벼쫊폃컂뛈맣뗄탂탍뮷놣뗧돘뷢뻶랽낸뫍쫵쇬폲 닺욷 300017 췸쯞뿆벼 뮥솪췸튵컱욽첨ퟛ뫏럾컱ꎬ쿲룷샠췸햾쳡릩컥ꆢ룟벼쫵럾컱튵쇬럾컱웷뗄췐맜뗈뮥솪췸튵컱욽첨뷢뻶랽낸 폲 300018 훐풪뮪뗧 뗧솦쾵춳훇쓜뮯볇슼럖컶뫍쪱볤춬늽쿠맘냋ꆢ룟탂벼쫵룄퓬뒫닺욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ훆퓬ꆢ쿺쫛뫍럾컱 춳닺튵쇬폲 300019 맨놦뿆벼 폐믺맨쫒컂붺벰훆붺폃짺닺짨놸뗄퇐랢쯄ꆢ탂닄쇏벼쫵쇬폲짺닺ꆢ훆퓬ꆢ쿺쫛 300020 틸붭막럝 쿲붻춨ꆢ튽쇆ꆢ붨훾뗈탐튵폃뮧쳡릩훇쓜뮯튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳쾵춳릤돌벰럾컱 튵 300023 놦뗂막럝 닉폃볆쯣믺췸싧뗈벼쫵뷸탐쪯폍쳬좻웸ퟪ튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳닉짨놸뗧뿘ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳벯돉ꆢퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳뷢튵 뻶랽낸 300024 믺웷죋 릤튵믺웷죋ꆢ컯쇷폫닖뒢ퟔ뚯뮯ꆢ볬닢짺닺튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳쿟벰쾵춳벯돉ꆢ붻춨ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳뗈닺욷 튵 300025 뮪탇뒴튵 쳡릩틆뚯춨탅벼쫵럾컱벰퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳닢쫔폅뮯쾵춳 튵 300028 뷰퇇뿆벼 쫽ퟖ뗧쫓쾵춳잰뫳뛋죭볾ꆢ펲볾뗄퇐랢ꆢ틔튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳벰쿲훐킡쫽ퟖ뗧쫓퓋펪짌쳡릩뛋떽뛋헻쳥튵 뷢뻶랽낸 300029 쳬쇺맢뗧 첫퇴쓜뗧돘맨닄쇏짺뎤ꆢ볓릤짨놸뗄퇐랢ꆢ쯄ꆢ탂닄쇏벼쫵쇬폲짺닺뫍쿺쫛 300030 퇴웕튽쇆 캪쇙뒲볬퇩쪵퇩쫒폫쇙뒲뮤샭쳡릩틔튵컥ꆢ룟벼쫵럾컱튵쇬뷢뻶랽낸캪틀췐뗄벼쫵ꆢ닺욷뫍럾컱 폲 300033 춬뮨쮳 췸짏탐쟩붻틗쾵춳뗄뾪랢뫍캬뮤ꆢ뷰죚톶튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳벰쫽뻝럾컱ꆢ쫖믺뷰죚탅쾢럾컱ꆢ뷰죚췸햾튵 26
톶럾컱 300034 룖퇐룟쓉 탂탍룟컂뫏뷰닄쇏벰훆욷뗄짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛ꎬ훽쯄ꆢ탂닄쇏벼쫵쇬폲퓬룟컂뫏뷰훆욷ꆢ뇤탎룟컂뫏뷰훆욷뫍 300036 뎬춼죭볾 쿲헾뢮뫍웳튵뗈믺릹폃뮧쳡릩튵뗘샭탅튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳쾢쾵춳ꎨGISꎩ죭볾닺욷뫍벼쫵뾪랢럾컱 튵 300037 탂 훦 냮 듓쫂탂탍뗧ퟓ뮯톧욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛뫍쯄ꆢ탂닄쇏벼쫵쇬폲럾컱 300040 뻅훞뗧웸 뗧솦뗧ퟓ돉쳗짨놸벰웤엤쳗뗄뗧뿘ퟔ뚯뮯튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳닺욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ훆퓬ꆢ쿺쫛뫍럾컱 튵 300041 믘쳬붺튵 듓쫂뮯릤탂닄쇏ꎬ벴룷샠룟뛋릤돌붺햳볁뗄쯄ꆢ탂닄쇏벼쫵쇬폲퇐랢ꆢ짺닺뫍쿺쫛 300042 샊뿆뿆벼 듓쫂직듦펦폃벰틆뚯듦뒢닺욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳닺ꆢ쿺쫛벰쿠맘벼쫵뗄샻퓋펪튵컱 튵 300044 주캪훇쓜 캪돇쫐맬뗀붻춨ꆢ쳺슷ꆢ붨훾탐튵쳡릩훇쓜튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳뮯쾵춳뷢뻶랽낸 튵 300045 뮪솦뒴춨 듓쫂믹폚볆쯣믺벼쫵뗄럂헦닢쫔쾵춳벰웤튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳쿠맘짨놸뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺뫍쿺쫛튵컱 튵 300047 쳬풴뗏뿆 뗧탅ꆢ릫낲뗈펦폃죭볾닺욷뗄뾪랢ꆢ짺닺뫍튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳쿺쫛ꎬ볆쯣믺죭ꆢ펲볾쾵춳벯돉ꎬ벼쫵횧돖튵 폫럾컱 300049 뢣죰막럝 쳡릩룎쿋캬뮯헯뛏훎쇆닺욷뫍럾컱 뛾ꆢ짺컯폫탂튽튩벼쫵쇬폲 300050 쫀볍뚦샻 쳡릩틆뚯춨탅췸싧폅뮯랽낸ퟛ뫏럾컱ꆢ뗧탅튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳퓋펪짌쳡릩룟벼쫵몬솿뗄췸싧폅뮯닢쫔럖튵 컶쾵춳뗈 300051 죽컥뮥솪 쿲훐킡웳튵뿍뮧쳡릩뗧ퟓ짌컱췸햾붨짨ꆢ냬튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳릫ퟔ뚯뮯쾵춳ꆢ뿍뮧맘쾵맜샭쾵춳뗈죭볾닺튵 욷벰럾컱 300052 훐 쟠 놦 췸싧폎쾷뗄뾪랢벰퓋펪 튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳튵 300053 얷 뇈 쳘 룟뿉뾿잶죫쪽SoC킾욬샠닺욷뗄퇐ꆢ닺쿺ꎻ튻ꆢ뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵웳쾵춳벯돉샠닺욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺뫍쿺쫛ꎻ닺욷튵 듺샭벰웤쯻 300054 뚦쇺막럝 좫쟲쇬쿈뗄뗧뫉뗷뷚볁ꆢ뮯톧첼럛뫍폃ퟅ쯄ꆢ탂닄쇏벼쫵쇬폲즫볁뗄뮯톧욷탂닄쇏릩펦짌 300055 췲 냮 듯 캪쪯뮯뗧솦뗈듳탍쿮쒿쳡릩릤튵쮮뒦샭쾵컥ꆢ룟벼쫵럾컱튵쇬 27
춳좫랽캻ꆢ좫쫙쏼훜웚튵럾컱ꎻ쮮믘폃벰폲 쮮뒦샭쾵춳퓋펪헻쳥춳돯 300056 죽 캬 쮿 퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛뮷놣돽뎾싋쇏ꎬ듼쪽돽뎾쇹ꆢ탂쓜풴벰뷚쓜벼웷뫋탄늿볾룟탔쓜룟컂싋쇏뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺뫍쫵쇬폲 쿺쫛 300057 췲쮳막럝 훐룟떵뢴뫏횽뫍틆횽ꎨ쫴뮷놣탍횽샠ꎩ뗄쇹ꆢ탂쓜풴벰뷚쓜벼짺닺쿺쫛 쫵쇬폲 300058 삶즫맢뇪 욷없뒫능ꆢ닺욷췆맣ꆢ캣믺맜샭ꆢ믮뚯맜샭ꆢ컥ꆢ룟벼쫵럾컱튵쇬쫽ퟖ쎽쳥펪쿺ꆢ웳튵짧믡퓰죎뗈튻쳥뮯뗄솴폲 쳵쪽럾컱 뇊헟뺭맽춳볆ꎬ랢쿖퓚헢39횻룟탂벼쫵웳튵훐ꎬ뗚튻샠뗧ퟓ탅쾢벼쫵쇬폲쯹햼뇈샽ퟮ듳ꎬ듯떽쇋뷼냫뗄%ꎬ뛸뗚죽샠몽뿕몽쳬벼쫵쇬폲뫍뗚웟샠풴폫뮷뺳벼쫵쇬폲뗄웳튵쫽솿캪쇣ꆣ떱좻헢늢늻듺뇭헢솽샠웳튵퓚컒맺뻍쎻폐랢햹ꎬ떫헢룶쫽뻝튲좷쪵듓쒳룶랽쏦뷒쪾컒맺룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄샠탍럖늼훐ꎬ헦헽뗄룟뿆벼죧몽뿕몽쳬웳튵ꆢ?듽랢햹뗄풴뮷뺳놣뮤샠웳튵ꎬ뚼쿠뛔랢햹뮺싽ꆣ 뒴튵냥막욱샠탍럖늼춼 뗚냋샠룟탂벼쫵룄퓬뒫춳닺튵쇬뗚쇹샠탂쓜풴뷚 폲, %쓜벼쫵쇬폲, % 뗚컥샠룟벼쫵럾 컱튵벼쫵쇬폲,뗚튻샠뗧ퟓ탅쾢% 벼쫵웳튵,% 뗚쯄샠탂닄쇏벼 쫵쇬폲, % 뗚뛾샠짺컯탂튽 춼3-1뒴튵냥막욱샠탍럖늼춼 튩벼쫵쇬폲, % 춼3-1 뒴튵냥막욱샠탍럖늼춼 28
룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵움맀퇐뺿룅뿶 샭싛짏쮵ꎬ떫랲튻냣웳튵쓜쪹폃뗄볛횵움맀샭싛뫍랽램ꎬ튲뚼쓜릻펦폃퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵움맀짏ꎬ떫쫇틲캪룟탂벼쫵웳튵뻟폐훚쯹훜횪뗄룟럧쿕룟쫕틦ꆢ쿖뷰쇷솿쓑폚풤볆뗈풭틲ꎬ쯹틔퓚움맀웤볛횵쪱ꎬ튻냣늻쟣쿲폚폃뒫춳뗄웳튵맀횵샭싛살움맀닢쯣ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ뺭볃톧뷧뇈뷏뎣폃뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵맀횵랽램듳뛠뻛붹퓚쪵컯웚좨램ꎬ쒣뫽맀볛램헢샠뗄탂랽램짏ꎬ퇐뺿돉맻튲뇈뷏뛠ꎬ쿂쏦뻍헢벸훖뎣폃샭싛랽램뗄컄쿗ퟶ튻룶볲떥ퟛ쫶ꎺ 맺췢퇐뺿룅뿶벰컄쿗ퟛ쫶 ꎨ1ꎩ첩뗏죸ꎨTaudesaꎩꆢ램쮹쳡쒷ꎨFeurstienmꎩ퓚2000쓪붫쪵컯웚좨랽램펦폃떽IT쿮쒿뗄움맀훐ꎬ뗃돶뷡싛ꆰ뒫춳랽램죧IRR램ꆢNPV램뚼늻쫊뫏뒦샭훮죧듳늿럖IT쿮쒿쯹쏦쇙뗄룟늻좷뚨탔틲쯘ꆱ ꆣ퓚웤퇐뺿훐ꎬ쯻쏇뾪랢쇋튻룶뾼싇탭뛠펰쿬웳튵볛횵뗄뇤솿뗄솬탸쪱볤쒣탍ꎬ늢쟒퓚쪵볊닙ퟷ훐볓죫쇋Monte Carlo랽램ꎻ쯤좻헢쫇튻룶뫜췪짆뗄쒣탍ꎬ떫쯼횻쫇놻짨볆돉폃폚IT[22]쿮쒿뗄움맀ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ냍뗙컂ꎨ Baldwinꎩ뫍뿋삳뿆ꎨClarkꎩ퓚2001쓪붫쒿뇪늢릺웳튵볛횵뚨틥캪ꎺ뒫춳움맀랽램쿂웳튵볛횵볓짏훷늢랽쯹믱웚좨볛횵횮뫍ꎬ늢붫헢[23]튻뷡싛폃폚웳튵늢릺컊쳢쪱닺짺뗄볛횵움맀컊쳢ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ쮹컖ꎨSchwartzꎩ퓚2002쓪붫쪵컯웚좨램폃폚샻좨볛횵틔벰샻놣뮤퇐랢쿮쒿뗄볛횵움맀짏ꆣ쯻죏캪펵폐듳솿샻좨뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵평폚ퟔ짭쳘뗣ꎬ샻좨헢훖컞탎닺퓚닺ퟜ솿훐뗄뇈샽튲뷏룟ꆣ쯻뾼싇쇋쿮쒿췪돉돉놾뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ쿮쒿춶닺뫳쫕틦뗄늻좷뚨탔틔벰쿮쒿퇐랢쪧냜뗄뿉쓜탔ꎬ춬쪱튲뾼싇쇋훐춾럅웺쿮쒿뾪랢뗄뿉쓜ꎬ늢뷒쪾쇋떱늻좷뚨탔ퟣ릻듳믲쿮[24]쒿늻퓙폐볛횵쪱ꎬ헢훖럅웺웚좨뗄볛횵ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ낢컖쮹.듯쒪듯죃ꎨAswath Damodaranꎩ퓚2004쓪쳡돶쇋튻쾵쇐맘폚뢺펯샻ꆢ벫뗍펯샻룟탂웳튵틔벰돵뒴릫쮾뗄볛횵움맀뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ룟탂벼쫵웳튵퓚뒴냬돵웚췹췹쫇뻟폐룟럧쿕ꆢ룟믘놨뗄훐킡웳튵ꎬ퓚돉뎤돵웚룼쫇췹췹뇭쿖캪펯샻뫜뗍짵훁뿷쯰뗄뻖쏦ꎬ뛔폚듋샠웳튵뗄볛횵움맀ꎬ쯻ퟜ뷡럖컶쇋펯샻뢺퓶뎤뗄죽훖샠탍ꎺꋙ퓝쪱탔풭틲틽랢뗄컊쳢ꎬ죧뛌웚웳튵풱릤냕릤ꎬ쪯폍볛룱틽랢퓋쫤돉놾춻짽뗈뗈ꎻꋚ뎤웚탔컊쳢ꎬ죧웳튵ퟔ짭뺭펪닟싔늻췗믲뷰튻횱뛌좱ꎻꋛ짺쏼훜웚ꎬ뿉쓜틲캪웳튵헽뒦폚짺쏦훜웚훐뗄훖ퟓ웚믲쫐뎡떼죫웚ꎬ헢룶웚볤뛔폚죎뫎웳튵살쮵ꎬ뚼벫폐뿉쓜쫇펯샻벫짙뗄볨쓑쪱웚ꆣ듋췢ꎬ듯쒪듯죃튲퇐뺿쇋돵뒴릫쮾뗄볛횵움맀ꎬ쯻죏캪ꎬ돵뒴릫쮾뗄볛횵쯤좻훷튪쳥쿖퓚뺭펪믮뚯쯹닺짺뗄쿖뷰쇷뗄쿖횵짏ꎬ떫쫇맀볆헢킩쿖뷰쇷탨튪닆컱놨뇭췢룼뛠룼좫쏦뗄탅쾢ꆣ쳘뇰쫇뛔폚뢺펯샻뗄돵뒴릫쮾살쮵ꎬ쯹폐뗄볛횵뚼뿉맩폚퓶뎤 29
잱솦뗄볛횵ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩJing-Shing YaoꎬMiao-Sheng ChenꎬHuei-Wen Linꎨ2005ꎩ퓚틔췹뗄쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ볓죫쒣뫽쿖뷰쇷솿ꆢ늻ힼ좷뗄헛쿖싊ꆢ쒣뫽퓶뎤싊헢킩틲쯘ꎬ퓋폃쒣뫽싟벭쾵춳쳡돶쇋튻룶쒣뫽쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍ꎬ늢뷡뫏튻킩웳튵뗄쪵볊낸샽뷸탐쇋볛횵움맀ꆣ춬퇹틲캪뒫춳뗄쿖뷰쇷헛쿖램뫜쓑맀솿룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵헢룶풭틲ꎬ쯹틔췘햹뗄쒣뫽쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍퓚웳튵볛횵움맀훐뗃떽뫜듳랢햹ꆣ뷸튻늽뗘ꎬ헢튻쒣탍뗄돉릦횮뒦퓚폚쯼춨맽쒣뫽쫽톧샭싛캪볛횵움맀쳡릩쇋튻훖냯훺쳘뚨춶헟헆컕웳튵볛횵뗄뫃랽램ꆣ ꎨ6ꎩ풼몲.늼샻뷰키ꎨꎩ퓚2005쓪맘폚췸싧릫쮾볛횵움맀컊쳢뗄퇐뺿훐죏캪ꎺ춨뎣튻룶췸싧릫쮾펦떱폐50%믲룼뛠뗄쫕죫살ퟔ폚폫췸싧쿠맘뗄튵컱닅믡놻죏캪쫇췸싧릫쮾ꎬ쯼쫇뗤탍뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄튻샠ꆣ떫쫇헢샠탂탋췸싧웳튵뗄볛횵움맀뇈뷏잰퇘ꎬ듓샭싛랽램떽쪵볹뚼풶캴돉쫬ꆣ풼몲.늼샻뷰키퇐뺿쇋냼삨죧뫎틔샺쪷쫽뻝캪틀뻝좷뚨맘볼닎쫽뗄쫽횵ꎬ죧뫎붨솢튻룶쇩믮뗄뗧ퟓ쫽뻝뇭쒣탍움맀췸싧릫쮾뗄볛횵ꎬ죧뫎쪹폃쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷솿ꎨDCFꎩ랽램ꎬ춨맽쒣탍볆쯣뗃떽좨틦움맀뗄ퟮ훕뷡맻뗈컊쳢ꆣ쯻뮹뷸튻늽닻쫶쇋췸싧릫쮾볛횵움맀뗄룼룟짮뗄ꆢ뿎쳢,샽죧놾돉놾뗄톡퓱ꆢ죧뫎볆쯣놾돉놾뗈ꎬ쳖싛쇋췸싧릫쮾뫍뗧ퟓ짌컱릫쮾뗄햽싔잰뺰ꆣ듋췢ꎬ쯻뮹퇐뺿쇋늢릺훐췸싧릫쮾뗄볛횵움맀컊쳢ꆣ 맺쓚퇐뺿룅뿶벰컄쿗ퟛ쫶 평폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵헢킩쓪퓚맺쏱뺭볃훐쫜떽뗄훘쫓ꎬ맺쓚쿠펦뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷ튲듳솦뾪햹웰살ꎬ훷튪벯훐퓚틔쿖뷰쇷헛쿖램뫍웚좨뚨볛램캪믹뒡ꎬ뛔쒣탍뷸탐탞헽살움맀웳튵볛횵ꆣ 뇭3-2 룟탂벼쫵볛횵움맀맺쓚퇐뺿돆돉맻뇭 ퟷ헟 쪱볤 틀뻝훷튪랽쓚죝볲쫶 램 퇮뒺열 2002쓪 뷡뫏뷰죚웚퓋폃쪵컯웚좨뗄뚨볛릫쪽움맀샻좨뗄볛횵ꎬ붫좨뚨볛릫춶헟릺싲믲펵폐뗄샻좨뾴돉쫇튻훖삩햹좨ꎬ쪽ꎬ룸돶샠늢룸돶쇋볆쯣샻좨볛횵뗄릫쪽ꆣ늻맽ꎬ룃샻쯆뗄쪵컯웚움맀릫쪽쫇틔샻좨뗄춶죫폫닺돶뻹쫇뎣쫽캪좨뚨볛릫쪽 잰쳡뗄ꎬ폫쪵볊쟩뿶뿉쓜폐킩늻럻뫏ꆣ 톦쏷2002쓪 퓚쯦믺뿘훆뾼싇떽룟뿆벼릫쮾뗄맜샭죡탔ꎬ닉폃뚯첬맦뮮뫍룞ꆢ샮뗄뿲볜쿂ꎬ쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쮼쿫뫍랽램ꎬ룸돶룟뿆벼릫쮾볛횵돾쇘 룸돶쇋튻냣쯹싺ퟣ뗄욫캢럖랽돌ꆣ퓚쳘쫢쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쳖싛쇋닎뗄뫏샭뚨볛쫽뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓쒿잰틑폐뗄퇐뺿살뾴ꎬ믹폚웚좨뚨룟뿆벼릫쮾볛쒣탍뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뷸탐맀볛뗄퇐뺿뇈뷏뛠ꆣ 30
뗄쒣탍 샮뫬2002쓪 붫샻좨뗄죏캪룟탂벼쫵뒴튵웳튵움맀뗄훷튪닺쫇샻쎷ꆢ헅톡퓱좨뾴돉좨ꎬ샻좨쫇튻훖쇩믮뗄톡퓱좨ꎬ쯼룸웳튵틔튻럡 샠쯆웚좨ꎬ훖샠쯆웚좨뗄좨솦ꎬ벴뿉틔톡퓱폐샻뗄쫐뎡쪱믺뷡뫏웚좨뚨춶죫뷰뾪랢룃샻ꎬ떱웳튵뷸탐쇋늻뿉쓦춶볛샭싛 뫳ꎬ웳튵뻍쿠떱폚횴탐쇋웚좨ꆣ뷡뫏웚좨뚨볛샭싛캪룟탂벼쫵뒴튵웳튵뗄볛횵움맀쳡릩쇋샭싛믹뒡ꎬ늢퓚룟탂벼쫵뒴튵웳튵움맀훐뗄펦폃뷸탐쇋첽쳖ꆣ 췵짙뫀 2003쓪 퓚헛쿖쿖뷰뛔쓇킩룟럧쿕믲랢햹잰뺰늻좷뚨뗄릫쮾뷸탐움쇷솿쒣탍훐맀ꆣ닉폃쏉쳘뾨싥쒣쓢뗄랽램ꎬ뛔캴살뗄닆컱쫽닉폃쇋쏉쳘뻝뚼쫇춨맽쯦믺좡퇹살좷뚨뗄ꎬ뫜뿍맛뗘랴펳쇋뾨싥쒣쓢랽쫐뎡뗄뇤뮯쒪닢ꆣ 램 샮뫩2003쓪 믹폚쪵컯웚퓚듋믹뒡짏릹퓬쇋룃램뗄쿠뛔횵움볛쒣탍ꎬ복짙붭ꆢ쟺좨쮼쿫ꎬ쳡쇋볆쯣솿ꎬ듓뛸뿉틔랽뇣뗘냑쪵컯웚좨믺훆죚죫쿾량 돶튻훖샻폃떽움볛훐좥ꆣ춨맽뛔쯣샽뗄럖컶뿉횪ꎬ헢훖움볛웚좨뚨볛쒣랽램쓜릻랴펳룟벼쫵쿮쒿뗄솽룟ꎨ벴룟럧쿕ꆢ룟탍살움볛룟쫕틦ꎩ쳘헷ꎬ쓜릻돤럖뾼싇쯸뚨럧쿕뗄뻶닟죡탔벼쫵쿮쒿뗄뗄볛횵ꎬ듓뛸뇜쏢쇋뛔움볛횵뗄뗍맀ꆣ 랽램ꆣ 쳆몣2003쓪 퓋폃쿖뷰쇷쯻쏇뻍탍뺭볃쳵볾쿂컒맺룟벼쫵웳튵볛횵움쫋ꆢ탬헛쿖쮼쿫뫍맀뗄쓑뗣ꆢ뛔닟벰움맀랽램뷸탐쇋첽쳖ꎬ틔쪹룟쟭 웚좨뚨볛쮼벼쫵웳튵뗄움맀횵폫뿍맛볛횵쟷춬ꆣ 쿫쿠뷡뫏 맜퓆2004쓪 듓쪵컯웚좨쯻쏇헫뛔웤웳튵ퟔ짭뗄쳘뗣ꎬ첽쳖쇋뒫춳볛횵움쯉ꆢ듷뗄맛뗣럖컶맀랽램뛔폚룟벼쫵웳튵뗄늻쫊폃탔ꎬ늢뛔웤훐듦듳쮫 쇋룟벼쫵웳퓚쪵컯웚좨뷸탐쇋뚨탔럖컶ꎬ춬쪱퓋폃B-S뚨볛튵뗄쓚퓚볛쒣탍캪룟벼쫵웳튵뗄쓚퓚볛횵움맀쳡릩쇋뫏샭횵움맀컊뗄쪵컯웚좨움맀랽램ꆣ 쳢ꆣ 쇵횾룕 2004쓪 쳡돶쇋탞헽헢쫇튻룶뷏캪쇩믮뗄볆쯣릫쪽ꎬ떫쫇퓚쪵볊볆쯣뗄웚좨뚨볛쪱웤훐쒳킩쫽뻝뫜쓑뗃떽ꎬ죧ꎺ춶헟짺닺샻램ꎬ룸돶쇋닺욷닺짺뗄돵쪼뗄쿖뷰쇷뗄쿖횵A(0)뗄믱뗃ꎻ쮲샻좨뗄춶쪱웚좨욫틆싊 폫 뗄믱뗃뗈뗈ꆣ 죫폫닺돶뻹 31
캪쯦믺쟩뿶쿂뗄움맀쒣탍ꆣ 샮튦2006쓪 럖컶쇋F-Oퟛ쫶쇋쒿잰틑폐뗄헫뛔뿆벼탍훐킡웳튵뗄볛횵뿳ꆢ쇵쒣탍ퟷ캪뿆움맀쒣탍ꎬ돤럖뾼싇쇋웳튵랢햹뗄뷗뛎탔쳘뗣ꎬ뮪쎳ꆢ벼탍훐킡웳첽쳖쇋웳튵캴살뗄퓶뎤싊뫍좨틦놾돉놾싊뗄쿄쟭 튵춶볛횵좷뚨랽램ꎬ늢틔쪵볊룟탂벼쫵웳튵캪낸샽ꎬ쮵쏷움맀릤뻟뗄쇋뻟쳥뗄움맀볆쯣맽돌ꆣ 쫊폃탔ꎬ퓚 헫뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄쳘헷뛔쒣탍뷸탐탞헽ꆣ 쿠맘퇐뺿듦퓚뗄늻ퟣ 쒿잰ꎬ맺쓚췢톧헟폐맘룟탂벼쫵웳튵춶볛횵움맀뗄퇐뺿맘힢뗣뷏캪벯훐ꎬ훷튪듦퓚틔쿂벸룶랽쏦뗄컊쳢: ꎨ1ꎩ웳튵헻쳥볛횵움맀샭싛훐ퟮ뎣볻뗄쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖쒣탍ꎬ떫벴쪹쫇뺭맽랢햹뫍탞헽ꎬ룃쒣탍퓚움맀룟탂벼쫵웳튵쪱뚼믡폶떽튻룶ퟮ뎣볻뗄컊쳢ꎬ뻍쫇퓚쪵볊펦폃훐죧뫎맀볆쿖뷰쇷솿ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ떱폶볻솽룶틔짏뗄뛠룶웳튵믲쿮쒿탨튪뻶뚨춶쪱ꎬ죧뫎듓훐뇈뷏ꆢ즸톡쓄룶룼횵뗃춶ꎬ헢뛔춶헟살쮵뻟폐럇뎣훘튪뗄펦폃볛횵ꎬ쫇벱탨뷢뻶뗄뿎쳢ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ폃쪵컯웚좨램살움맀룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵뗄펦폃튻횱뇈뷏맣랺ꎬ떫듓쿖ힴ살뾴ꎬ돉뎤탍웚좨뫍럅웺탍웚좨뗄퇐뺿뫍쪹폃뷏뛠ꎬ웤쯼샠탍웚좨뗄퇐뺿퓲뫜짙ꎬ쟒쎻폐붨솢뇈뷏돉쫬뗄럖컶뿲볜ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ퇐랢횧돶헢튻틲쯘쫇쿖폐뗄쿠뛔볛횵쒣탍훐훷튪뾼싇뗄ꎬ떫쪵컱훐죏뚨룟탂벼쫵웳튵돽쇋퇐랢럑폃헢룶횸뇪췢ꎬ뮹폐룷훖웤쯻횸뇪ꎬ뇈죧튵벼쫵죋풱뇈샽ꆢ쿺쫛쫕죫ꆢퟩ횯맜샭쮮욽ꆢ뿆벼돉맻뮯쓜솦뗈ꎬ쯻쏇뚼펦룃퓚쒣탍훐햼폐튻뚨뇈훘ꎬ뿉쿔좻쿖퓚뗄쒣탍훐뛔듋맘힢뫜짙ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ쯦ퟅ쫀뷧뺭볃뗄톸쏍랢햹ꎬ탂탍룟탂벼쫵웳튵튲돶쿖쇋룷훖랱뛠뗄샠탍ꎬ죧룟벼쫵럾컱튵ꆢ룟탂벼쫵룄퓬뒫춳닺튵틔벰췸싧릫쮾뗈ꆣ쿖폐뗄뒫춳볛횵움맀샭싛폫랽램ퟜ쳥짏쓑틔췪좫쫊펦ꎬ뮹탨튪퇐뺿헟쏇늻뛏췆돂돶탂ꎬ췘햹쮼슷ꆣ 32
펰쿬룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵뗄틲쯘 뒫춳뗄웳튵볛횵샭싛죏캪ꎬ펰쿬웳튵헻쳥볛횵ퟮ듳뗄틲쯘쫇웳튵캴살뗄펯샻쓜솦ꎬ헢튲헽쫇뒫춳웳튵맀횵랽램뗄믹뒡ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ쿖퓚뗄퇐뺿헟쟣쿲폚죏캪퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄헻쳥볛횵움맀컊쳢훐ꎬ듦퓚룼뛠뇰뗄펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ쫗쿈ꎬ컒쏇틀좻뿏뚨웳튵닺뗄헋쏦볛횵뫍웳튵뗄볛횵돉헽뇈맘쾵ꎬ떫쫇헢훖닺뗄죏뚨돽쇋폐탎뗄ꆢ퓚닺뢺햮뇭짏돶쿖뗄닺쿮쒿췢ꎬ컞탎뗄ꆢ캴놻쇐죫닺뢺햮뇭훐룷훖컞탎닺뗄볛횵ꎬ퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵움맀훐펦룃튲펦놻쇐죫훘튪뗄맀횵ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ평폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵닺욷뗄룟뢽볓횵쳘탔ꎬ컒쏇믡죏캪헢샠웳튵뗄룟퇐랢럑폃ꆢ룟벶죋닅뗄킽돪럑폃ꆢ탂닺욷뗄맣룦럑폃ꎬ뚼뫍웳튵뗄헻쳥볛횵돉헽뇈맘쾵ꆣ맺췢뗄튻킩쪵횤퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ퓚웳튵뾪냬돵웚뻍춶죫뗄룟뛮퇐랢럑폃ꆢ맣룦럑폃췹췹믡캪웳튵뫳웚탎돉뻞듳뗄컞탎닺웰떽늻뿉믲좱뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ웳튵뗄룟뎬뺭펪쓜솦뫍뛔풴뗄헻쳥폐킧샻폃ꎬ뚼뿉틔캪웳튵뗄헻쳥볛횵쳡짽웰떽뫜듳ퟷ폃ꆣ웳튵튪쿫놣돖돖탸뗄뺺헹솦ꎬ돽쇋펵폐폅훊뗄닺ꎬ뮹뇘탫놣횤폐솼뫃뗄뺭펪쓜솦살놣횤닺샻폃뗄킧싊ꆣ ퟛ뫏틔짏맛뗣ꎬ뇊헟죏캪ꎬ퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵헢훖룟춶죫ꆢ룟쫕틦ꆢ룟럧쿕뗄탂탋웳튵훐ꎬ뫍웳튵닺ꆢ뺭펪쓜솦ꆢ퇐랢럑폃뗈폐맘뗄튻킩틲쯘ꎬ뚼쫇펰쿬웳튵볛횵뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ뻟쳥떽튻킩뻟쳥쫽횵짏ꎬ폐맘솪뗄닎쫽뿉틔헒떽죧폐탎닺볛횵ꆢ컞탎닺볛횵ꆢ퇐랢럑폃햼훷펪튵컱쫕죫뇈훘ꆢ룟톧샺퇐랢죋풱햼웳튵풱릤ퟜ뇈샽ꆢ훷펪튵컱샻죳햼샻죳ퟜ뛮ꆢퟜ닺훜싊뗈ꆣ 33
뗚쯄헂 쪵컯웚좨쒣탍톡퓱뫍뷩짜 쪵컯웚좨쒣탍뗄샭싛벰믹뒡릫쪽 본폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄맀횵뫜쓑폃뒫춳볛횵움맀샭싛살쳗폃ꎬ맊듋놾컄퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵움맀컊쳢짏ꎬ붫ퟅ퇛뗣럅퓚쇋쒿잰펦폃뷏뛠뗄쪵컯웚좨램짏ꆣ쿖뷱쿠뛔돉쫬뗄쪵컯웚좨폐벸훖뎣폃쒣탍ꎬ벴Black-Scholes쒣탍ꆢ뛾닦쫷쒣탍ꆢSchwartz&Moon뫍Roll-Geske-Whaley쒣탍ꆣ 헢벸훖쒣탍퓚볆쯣웚좨뗄볛횵쪱ꎬ뛔웚좨뗄뚨볛뚼붨솢퓚뛔뇪뗄닺볛룱뗄맀볆헢튻믹뒡짏ꎬ벴뇪뗄닺뗄볛룱쫇웚좨볛횵뗄뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ떫헢죽훖쒣탍뗄솢ퟣ뗣폐짙탭늻춬ꎬ틲듋쯼쏇쫊폃폚늻춬뗄쟩뿶ꆣ뇈죧B-S쒣탍평폚웤붨솢뗄풭쪼볙짨쪹뗃쯼횻쫊폃폚늻럖뫬뗄쏀쪽웚좨ꎬ쟒뇪닺뗄볛룱탨싺ퟣ벸뫎늼샊퓋뚯ꎬ쟒늻쫊폃폚뢴뫏웚좨뗄움볛ꎬ쯹틔쯼퓚쪵컯웚좨짏뗄펦폃폐뷏듳뗄쿞훆ꎻ뛸믹폚럧쿕훐솢볙짨쯹쳡돶뗄뛾닦쫷쒣탍퓚뇪뗄닺뗄볛룱늨뚯랽쏦늢캴튪쟳ꎬ럾듓죎뫎튻훖럖늼뗄뚼뿉쫊폃듋쒣탍ꎬ떫헢룶쒣탍퓚짦벰뛠쿮뇪뗄닺ꎨ볈ힴ첬뇤솿뗄쫽쒿뎬맽3룶ꎩ쪱ꎬ웤볆쯣솿믡쯦ퟅ컊쳢캬쫽뗄퓶볓횸쫽쪽뗘톸쯙퓶볓ꎬ벴쯹캽뗄ꆰ캬쫽뗄퓖쓑ꆱꎨCurse of Dimensionalityꎩꎬ맊듋늻쫊뫏뛠쿮쒿뛔뇈ꎻRoll-Geske-Whaley쒣탍퓲뛔쏀쪽럖뫬웚좨뗄맀횵폐뷏뫃쫊폃탔ꎻ뛸Schwartz&Moon쒣탍ꎨ2000,2001ꎩ뛔쪵컯웚좨뗄펦폃퓲쫇쫗쿈붨솢솬탸쪱볤쒣탍ꎬ퓙춨맽샫즢쪱볤쒣탍뗄뷼쯆쒣쓢(뎣틔쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램)쟳뗃릫쮾뗄샭싛볛횵ꆣ쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램퓚뛠캬컊쳢폐ퟅ쏷쿔뗄폅쫆ꎬ틲캪쯼뗄쫕솲쯙뛈폫캳뛈컞맘ꆣ놾컄뻶뚨톡좡Schwartz&Moonꎨ2000,2001ꎩ쒣탍ퟶ퇐뺿럖컶ꆣ 본폚1973쓪붨솢웰살뗄늼삳뿋-쮹뿆뛻쮹ꎨBlack-Scholesꎩ웚좨뚨볛쒣탍캪뫳살뗄룷훖웚좨쒣탍듲뾪쇋쮼슷ꎬퟮ퓧뾪쪼춻웆탔뗘뷢컶쇋웚좨뗄쫽톧뚨볛쒣탍ꎬ틀헕헢룶쒣탍뗃돶뗄뚨볛뷡맻췹췹뫍쫐뎡볛횵쿠닮늻듳ꎬ뻟폐뷏잿뗄펦폃탔ꎬ쯹틔폐뇘튪쫗쿈볲튪뷩짜튻쿂B-S릫쪽뗄믹놾쏨쫶ꎺ −rt V=S×N(d)−X×e×N(d) ꎨ릫쪽10ꎩ B122Sln()+rt+σt/2X웤훐ꎬd= ꎨ릫쪽11ꎩ 1σt2ln(S/N)+rt−σt/2 d==d−σt ꎨ릫쪽12ꎩ 21σt쪽훐ꎺN(d)튻튻뇪ힼ헽첬럖늼뇤솿뗄샛믽룅싊럖늼몯쫽ꎻ iX튻웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱; S ꆪ뇪뗄닺뗄쿖탐볛룱ꎻ 2σ튻뇪뗄닺쓪믘놨싊랽닮ꎻ 34
Vꆪ웚좨볛횵ꎻ Bt ꆪ뻠떽웚죕뗄쪣폠쪱볤ꎻ r ꆪ컞럧쿕샻싊 Schwartz뫍Moon(2000)쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 쫗쿈틀뻝Schwartz & Moon쒣탍뗄퇐뺿샭싛붨솢튻룶솬탸쪱볤쒣탍ꎬ춸맽샫즢쪱볤쒣탍뗄뇆뷼ꎬ뛸뫳맀볆쒣탍뗄닎쫽ꎬ뷓ퟅ폃쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램(Monte Carol smiulatino)쟳뗃릫쮾샭싛막볛ꎬퟮ뫳톡좡컒맺뒴튵냥쫐뎡뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵샊뿆뿆벼ꎨ횤좯듺싫300042ꎩ뗄뻟쳥닆컱쫽뻝살듺죫쒣탍ꎬ닢쯣릫쮾막욱볛룱ꎬ늢ퟷ쏴룐뛈럖컶ꎬ솦춼헒돶헒돶펰쿬볛횵맀쯣뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ 솬탸쪱볤쒣탍 룃쒣탍쯹폃떽뗄닎쫽듳뛠뿉퓚릫쮾닆컱놨뇭짏헒떽ꎬ죧쫕죫ꆢ돉놾ꆢ쿖뷰뗈ꎬ쪵볊펦폃훐뿉틔춨맽쯦믺맽돌틔뗃떽룷룶뇤솿ꎬ쿖붫헢킩닎쫽뷩짜쏨쫶죧쿂ꎺ 1ꆢ쫕죫ꎨRꎩꆪꆪ볙짨R캪릫쮾뗚t쪱볤뗄쫕죫ꎬ늢럾듓쿂쇐쯦믺맽돌ꎺ tt dRR=µdt+δdz ꎨ릫쪽13ꎩ tttt1웤훐µ쫇뗚t쪱볤뗄쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊ꎬδ캪뗚t쪱볤뗄쫕죫뇪ힼ닮ꆣ틲캪tt놾컄톡좡뗄쫇룟벼쫵웳튵뗄볛횵움맀ꎬ뛸룟뿆벼닺튵튻냣폐룟뛈늻좷뚨탔벰틗놻춬튵쒣럂룏짏뗄쳘뗣ꎬ쯹틔쯤좻룟뿆벼웳튵쯤좻튻냣폐뫜룟뗄쫕죫돉뎤싊ꎬ떫컒쏇쟣쿲폚붫쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊µ쯦믺뗘쫕솲떽닺튵뫏샭뗄쫕죫돉뎤싊ꎬ틲듋t짨뚨µ캪럾듓믘뢴욽뻹쯦믺맽돌ꎬ튲뻍쫇µ캪뎤웚뻹뫢쮮욽ꎺ ttdµ=k(µ−µ)d+ηdz ꎨ릫쪽14ꎩ tttt2웤훐η캪뗚t쪱볤쫕죫돉뎤싊뗄뇪ힼ닮ꎻk캪믘뢴욽뻹쾵쫽ꎬ벴쫕솲떽뎤웚t욽뻹쮮ힼ뗄쯙뛈ꎬ뛸ln(2)/K뿉쫓캪죎뫎돉뎤싊µ떽듯뎤웚쮮ힼµ뗄튻냫쪱볤ꎬtz뫍z럾듓늼샊퓋뚯(Borwninan motino)ꎬ솽헟폐쿠맘맘쾵죧쿂ꎺ 12dzz=ρdt ꎨ릫쪽15ꎩ 1212캪볲뮯쒣탍볙짨z뫍z뮥쿠뛀솢ꎬ벴ρ뗈폚쇣ꎬ쇭볙짨쫕죫럇풤웚뗄뇤뚯1212쫕솲떽룼볓뎣첬뗄쮮ힼꎬ쟒µ럇풤웚뇤뚯쫕솲떽쇣ꎬ틲듋뿉뗃ꎺ tdδ=k(δ−δ)dt ꎨ릫쪽16ꎩ t1tdη=−kηdt ꎨ릫쪽17ꎩ t2t웤훐ꎬk쫇δ쫕솲떽쫕죫뇪ힼ닮뗄뎤웚쮮ힼ햼뗄쯙뛈ꎬk쫇η쫕솲떽쇣뗄1t2t쯙뛈ꆣ 2ꆢ돉놾ꎨCꎩꆪꆪ볙짨웳튵돉놾C냼몬솽늿럖ꎺ쿺믵돉놾뫍웤쯻럑폃ꎬ웤tt훐쿺믵돉놾캪쫕죫ꎨRꎩ뗄α뇈싊ꎬ뛸웤쯻럑폃퓲냼몬만뚨돉놾F뫍뇤뚯돉놾ꎬt뇤뚯돉놾캪쫕죫ꎨRꎩ돋틔β뇈싊ꆣ t 35
C=쿺믵돉놾+웤쯻럑폃=αR+(F+βR)=(α+β)R+F ꎨ릫쪽18ꎩ ttttR캪릫쮾뗚t쪱볤뗄쫕죫ꎬα캪쿺믵돉놾햼쫕죫뗄만뚨뇈싊ꎬβ캪뇤뚯돉t놾햼쫕죫뗄만뚨뇈싊ꆣ 3ꆢ쮰뫳뺻샻ꎨYꎩꆪꆪ릫쮾뗚t쪱볤뗄쮰뫳뺻샻Y뿉폃쿂쪽뇭쪾ꎺ ttY=(R−C)(1−τ) ꎨ릫쪽19ꎩ tttc웤훐R캪릫쮾뗚t쪱볤쫕죫ꎬC캪릫쮾뗚t쪱볤돉놾ꎬτ캪릫쮾만뚨쮰싊ꎬttc쟒횻폐퓚쎻폐뗝퇓쯹뗃쮰닺틔벰뺻샻캪헽뗄쟩뿶쿂닅닺짺쯹뗃쮰ꆣ 4ꆢ뿉폃쿖뷰ꎨXꎩꆪꆪ룹뻝룷웚쮰뫳샻죳Y뿉쟳뗃릫쮾룷웚뿉폃쿖뷰XꎬtttX럾듓 tdX=Ydt ꎨ릫쪽20ꎩ tt헢샯캪쇋볲뮯릫쪽ꎬ볙뚨릫쮾늻랢럅막샻ꎬ놣쇴쿖뷰쇴퓚릫쮾좡컞럧쿕샻싊ꎨ죧듦럅틸탐좡뗃욽뻹짧믡컞럧쿕샻싊ꎩꎬ횱떽릫쮾돉캪헽뎣릫쮾닅뾪쪼랢럅막샻ꆣ쇭췢붫웆닺쳵볾볲뮯ꎬ볙짨떱뿉폃쿖뷰X튻떩붵뗍떽쇣ꎬ릫쮾벴뿌웆t닺ꆣ 5ꆢ릫쮾쒿잰볛횵(V)ꆪꆪ틔짏닎쫽뚨틥췪뇏뫳ꎬ벴뿉볆쯣릫쮾쒿잰뗄볛횵0Vꎬ헢튲쫇놾쒣탍듦퓚뗄ퟮ훕틢틥ꆣV뿉틔퓚럧쿕훐솢닢솿뗄잰쳡쿂붫릫쮾쯹00폐웚췻뺻쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖뗃돶ꎬ헛쿖싊폃컞럧쿕샻싊뇭쪾ꎨ헢샯볙짨웤만뚨ꎩꆣ웤훐ꎬ퓚T쓪쪱릫쮾볛횵냼몬솽늿럖ꎬ벴쒿잰뿉폃쿖뷰벰훕횵횮뫍ꆣ뛸훕횵뗄볆쯣쯤좻폐뛠훖랽램뿉폃ꎬ퓚듋캪쇋볲뮯쒣탍ꎬ닉폃췋돶놶쫽램ꎬ벴ꎺ훕횵=EBITDA(캪풤닢웚ퟮ뫳튻쓪뗄샻쾢ꆢ쮰뿮ꆢ헛뻉뫍첯쿺잰샻죳)×췋돶놶쫽Mꆣ퓲릫쮾볛횵뿉뚨틥캪ꎺ −rTV=E([X+M(R−C)]e ꎨ릫쪽21ꎩ 0Qttt−rT웤훐e쫇솬탸뢴샻헛쿖틲ퟓꆣ 6ꆢ럧쿕뗷헻뫳뗄쯦믺맽돌ꆪꆪ헢룶쒣탍웤쪵폐솽훖늻좷뚨탔ꎬ튻쫇쫕죫뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ뛾쫇쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ캪볲뮯쒣탍컒쏇퓝쪱뫶싔뗚뛾훖늻좷뚨탔ꎬ볙짨횻폐뗚튻훖늻좷뚨탔폐럧쿕쳹쮮ꎬ붫럧쿕뷸탐튻뚨뗷헻뫳ꎬ뿉뗃떽쫕죫뗄쯦믺맽돌ꎺ dRR=(µ−λδ)dt+δdz ꎨ릫쪽22ꎩ ttttt1웤훐ꎬλ쫇쫕죫틲쯘뗄럧쿕쳹쮮(볙짨캪만뚨)ꎬλ퓲뿉평쿂쪽쟳돶ꎺ λ=ρδ ꎨ릫쪽23ꎩ RMM짏쏦릫쪽훐뗄ρ캪쫕죫돉뎤싊뫍쫐뎡횸쫽놨돪뗄쿠맘쾵쫽ꎬ뛸δ캪쫐뎡RMM횸쫽놨돪싊뗄뇪ힼ닮돋믽ꆣ 7ꆢ릫쮾뫏샭막볛ꆪꆪ죴컒쏇튪닢쯣뗄쫇짏쫐릫쮾뗄막볛ꎬ쓇쎴릫쮾헻쳥볛횵헢룶닎쫽캴뇘캪맣듳춶헟뫍횤좯럖컶쪦쯹맘탄ꆣ틲듋뮹폐뇘튪퓚웳튵헻쳥볛횵뗄믹뒡짏뷸튻늽볆쯣쎿막볛횵ꆣ헢탨튪뗃떽릫쮾놾뷡릹ꆢ쇷춨막쫽솿ꎬ풱릤막욱웚좨뫍뿉뮻햮좯ꎬ틔벰막뚫뿉뗃뗄쿖뷰쇷솿뗈뻟쳥쫽횵ꆣ캪볲뮯럖 36
컶ꎬ볙짨릫쮾늻랢막샻ꎨ헢튲쫇튻킩룟벼쫵웳튵돵웚뛔듽럖뫬뎣닉좡뗄닟싔ꎩꎬ막욱웚좨뫍뿉뮻햮좯튲틲캪릫쮾잰뺰쿲뫃뛸퓚떽웚쪱좫늿뮻ꎬ틲듋뇘탫뾼싇헢킩횤좯뮻횮뫳퓶볓뗄막쫽ꎬ뛸막뚫뿉뗃뗄쿖뷰쇷솿뿉틔춨맽복좥뢺햮뗄놾뷰뫍쮰뫳샻쾢횧돶퓙볓짏웚좨뮻뗄쫕죫뗃떽ꆣ 샫즢쪱볤쒣탍 짏쫶쒣탍캪슷뺶쿠틀(pathꆪdendent)쒣탍ꎺ평폚뒫춳뗄뛾풪쫷쒣탍(binomial tree mode)컞램쫊폃ꎬ틲듋뇈뷏쇷탐뗄랽램쫇닉폃쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램살쟳뗃릫쮾볛횵ꆣ캪쟳볲뮯ꎬ놾컄볙짨쯹폐믘뢴욽뻹쾵쫽(KꆢKꆢK)뻹쿠춬ꎬ12늢쟳돶샫즢탍럧쿕뗷헻뫳쫕죫벰풤웚돉뎤싊뗄맽돌ꎺ 122R=Reexp{[µ−λδ−(δ/2)]∆t+δ(∆t)ε} ꎨ릫쪽24ꎩ t+∆ttttt11−k∆t−k∆t−2k∆t2µ=eµ+(1−e)µ+[(1−e)/2k]ηε ꎨ릫쪽25ꎩ t+∆ttt2−kt−ktδ=δe+δ(1−e) ꎨ릫쪽26ꎩ t0−ktη=ηe ꎨ릫쪽27ꎩ t0웤훐ꎬ∆t캪쪱볤퓶솿ꎬR캪뗚t쪱볤뗄릫쮾쫕죫ꎬR캪뗚t+∆t쪱볤릫쮾tt+∆t뗄쫕죫ꆢ뛸µ캪뗚t쪱볤뗄쫕죫돉뎤싊ꎬµ캪뗚t+∆t쪱볤뗄쫕죫돉뎤싊ꎬεtt+∆t1뫍ε쫇듓뎣첬럖엤돩돶뗄쯦믺뇤솿쟒뮥쿠뛀솢ꎬη캪쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊뗄뇪ힼ20닮ꎬη쫇뗚t쪱볤뗄쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊뇪ힼ닮ꎬδ캪쫕죫뇪ힼ닮ꎬδ캪뗚t쪱볤t0t뗄쫕죫뇪ힼ닮ꆣ 닎쫽맀볆 뺭쫊떱볲뮯뫳ꎬ룃쒣탍튻릲폐17룶닎쫽탨튪맀볆ꎬ쿂뇭쇐돶쇋헢킩훘튪닎쫽뗄붨틩맀볆랽램ꆣ 뇭4ꆪ1 쪵컯웚좨쒣탍훘튪닎쫽벰붨틩맀볆랽램 닎쫽 럻뫅 붨틩맀볆랽램 쫕죫 R 평놾웚쯰틦뇭맛달뿉뗃 0뿉폃쿖뷰 X 평놾웚닺뢺햮뇭맛달뿉뗃 0쫕죫돉뎤싊 µ 평맽좥쯰틦뇭뫍뛔캴살돉뎤뗄맀볆살맀쯣 0쫕죫뇪ힼ닮 δ ퟮ뷼벸웚쫕죫뇤뚯냙럖뇈뗄뇪ힼ닮 0쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊뇪ힼ닮 η 평막볛뇤뚯쫽췆쯣맀볆 0 37
쫕죫뇤뚯폚풤웚돉뎤싊뇤뚯ρ 평틔잰릫쮾믲뿧쿮쒿쇏맀볆 뗄쿠맘쾵쫽 뎤웚쫕죫돉뎤싊 µ 춬닺튵ꆢ춬탐튵릫쮾뗄쫕죫돉뎤싊 뎤웚쫕죫뇪ힼ닮 δ 춬닺튵ꆢ춬탐튵릫쮾뗄쫕죫뇤뚯냙럖뇈뗄뇪ힼ닮 릫쮾쯹뗃쮰쮰싊 τ 평놾릫쮾닆컱놨뇭뿉뗃 C컞럧쿕샻싊r죽룶퓂맺햮샻싊 돉뎤싊쯦믺맽돌믘뢴욽뻹쯙 k 평돉뎤싊훁µ뗄튻냫쪱볤췆쯣맀볆 뛈 쿺믵돉놾햼쫕죫뗄뇈싊 α 평맽좥쯰틦뇭맀볆틔벰럖컶쪦뗄ퟔ컒풤닢 뇤뚯돉놾햼쫕죫뗄뇈싊 β 평맽좥쯰틦뇭맀볆틔벰럖컶쪦뗄ퟔ컒풤닢 만뚨돉놾 F평맽좥쯰틦뇭맀볆틔벰럖컶쪦뗄ퟔ컒풤닢 쫕죫틲쯘럧쿕뗄쫐뎡볛룱 λ ρ뫍δ뗄돋믽 RMM맀볆뗄웚볤 T 튻뛎뿉믱뗃뎬뛮놨돪싊ꎬ룟쯙퓶뎤뗄웚볤ꎬ횮뫳돉캪헽뎣릫쮾 샫즢쪱볤쒣탍뗄쪱볤퓶솿 ∆t 틀뻝쇏뿉뗃탔뻶뚨ꎬ춨뎣뿉톡퓱튻룶벾뛈 쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램(Monte Carlo simulationmehtod) 뚨틥틔벰펦폃랶캧 쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램튲뷐ퟷ쯦믺쒣쓢램ꎬ쯼뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇ꎺ캪쟳뷢뿆톧ꆢ릤돌벼쫵뫍뺭볃뷰죚뗈랽쏦뗄컊쳢ꎬ쫗쿈붨솢튻룶룅싊쒣탍믲쯦믺맽돌ꎬ쪹쯼뗄닎쫽뗈폚컊쳢뗄뷢ꎬ좻뫳춨맽뛔쒣탍믲맽돌뗄맛달볆쯣쯹쟳닎쫽뗄춳볆쳘헷ꎬ듓뛸룸돶쯹쟳컊쳢뗄뷼쯆횵ꎬ뷢뗄뺫뛈뿉폃맀볆횵뗄뇪ힼ닮뇭쪾ꆣ쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램뿉틔뷢뻶뛠훖샠탍뗄컊쳢ꎬ쫓웤쫇럱짦벰쯦믺맽돌뗄탎첬뫍뷡맻ꎬ룃램뗄펦폃뿉럖캪솽듳샠ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ좷뚨탔컊쳢ꆪꆪ폃룃랽램쟳뷢좷뚨탔컊쳢쪱ꎬ쫗쿈튪붨솢튻룶폫쯹쟳뷢폐맘뗄룅싊쒣탍ꎬ쪹쯹쟳뗄뷢뻍쫇쯹붨쒣탍뗄룅싊럖늼믲쫽톧웚췻ꎻ뷓ퟅ뛔웤뷸탐쯦믺돩퇹맛달ꎬ닺짺쯦믺뇤솿ꎻퟮ뫳폃웤쯣쫵욽뻹쫽ퟷ캪쯹쟳뷢뗄뷼쯆맀볆횵ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ쯦믺컊쳢ꆪꆪ뛔폚헢샠컊쳢쯤좻폐쪱뿉뇭쪾캪뛠훘믽럖믲쒳킩몯쫽랽돌늢폃쯦믺돩퇹랽램쟳뷢ꎬ좻뛸튻냣쟩뿶쿂뚼늻닉폃헢훖볤뷓쒣쓢램ꎬ뛸쫇닉폃횱뷓쒣쓢램ꎬ벴룹뻝쪵볊쟩뿶뗄룅싊램퓲뷸탐돩퇹쫔퇩ꆣ퓋돯톧훐뗄뿢듦컊쳢ꆢ쯦믺럾컱쾵춳훐뗄업뛓컊쳢틔벰쒣쓢뷰죚닺볛횵뇤뮯뗈뚼쫴폚헢샠컊쳢ꆣ 38
믹놾늽훨뫍랽램 ꎨ1ꎩ헫뛔쯹탨뷢뻶뗄컊쳢붨솢튻룶볲떥틗탐뗄룅싊춳볆쒣탍ꎬ쪹쯹쟳뗄뷢잡뫃쫇쯹붨쒣뗄웚췻횵ꎻ ꎨ2ꎩ퓚볆쯣믺짏뷸탐쒣쓢쫔퇩ꎬ훷튪뛔쒣탍훐뗄쯦믺뇤솿붨솢돩퇹럖늼ꎬ돩좡ퟣ릻뗄쯦믺퇹놾ꎬ늢뷸탐뷸탐춳볆ꎻ ꎨ3ꎩ뛔쒣쓢뗃떽뗄쫔퇩뷡맻볓틔럖컶ꎬ룸돶쯹쟳뷢벰웤뺫뛈(랽닮)뗄맀볆ꎻ ꎨ4ꎩ뇘튪쪱ꎬ뮹펦룄뷸쒣탍틔쳡룟맀볆뺫뛈뫍쒣쓢볆쯣뗄킧싊ꆣ 쪵컯웚좨쒣탍퓚쪵볊펦폃훐뗄늻ퟣ 평폚쪵컯웚좨램퓚쪵폃훐뇘탫싺ퟣ뫜뛠뇘튪뗄잰쳡뫍볙짨쳵볾ꎬ닅쓜쪹웤샭싛쒣탍뗃틔돉솢ꎬ틲듋ꎬ퓚쪵볊펦폃맽돌훐쫜떽헢킩틲쯘뗄훆풼떼훂ퟔ짭뗄[25]튻킩늻ퟣꆣ헢킩늻ퟣ훷튪쳥쿖퓚틔쿂벸룶랽쏦ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ쒣탍뗄붨솢뫍짨볆쫗쿈쫇튻룶훷맛맽돌ꆣ움맀헟뛔쒣탍뗄냑컕뫍샭뷢돌뛈ꎬ틔벰폃쿖쪵쫽뻝듺죫쒣탍살쒣쓢쯹쓜듯떽뗄럂헦돌뛈ꎬ뚼뛔맀횵뗄뷡맻쫇럱ힼ좷웰떽쇋훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ움맀헟컞램붫쫐뎡떱훐틑폐뗄좫늿탅쾢뚼쳥쿖퓚튻룶쒣탍떱훐ꎬ헢뻍탨튪움맀헟폐튻룶랴뢴ퟜ뷡뫍믽샛뺭퇩뗄맽돌ꎬ죃맀횵뷡맻뗄컳닮뺡뿉쓜뗘뷓뷼헦쪵ힴ뿶ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ튻킩닎쫽탨튪평춨맽움맀헟춨맽ퟔ훷에뛏살뷸탐ꎬ헢쫆뇘쓑틔뇜쏢훷맛짏뗄욫웄ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ쒳킩쫽뻝뗄좡뗃믡폐훍뫳탔ꎬ헢튲믡쪹뗃뷡맻좱랦뺫ힼꎬ퓚펦폃짏튲쿞훆쇋쫊폃탔벰웤펦폃ꆣ샽죧컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뻍맦뚨짏쫐릫쮾퓚뗚뛾쓪뗄쇹퓂횮잰뛔췢헽쪽엻슶닆컱쫽뻝뚼쫇퓊탭뗄ꎬ헢뻍쪹뗃쫽뻝폐뇈뷏듳뗄훍뫳탔ꆣ 39
뗚컥헂 쪵횤퇐뺿 펦폃쪵컯웚좨램살움맀룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄쪵횤볛횵틑뺭폐맺쓚뗄튻킩퇐뺿헟ퟅ쫖뷸탐ꎬ샽죧닜쳬캰퓚웤쮶쪿싛컄훐퇩횤쇋폃쪵컯웚좨뗄샫즢탍쪱볤쒣탍[26]움맀쇋짏쫐릫쮾쟥뮪춬랽막럝폐쿞릫쮾뗄볛횵ꎻ듷샻믔퓚웤쮶쪿싛컄훐폃B-S웚좨뚨볛쒣탍뷡뫏쏉쳘뾨싥쒣쓢램뛔룟뿆벼얩튵쿮쒿ꆰ뚫랽냙뫏훖쟲쿮쒿ꆱ[27]뷸탐쇋볛횵움맀 ꎻ헅쿾뫬퓚웤쮶쪿싛컄훐퓋폃SchwartzꆪMoon쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쒣탍뷡뫏쏉쳘뾨싥쒣쓢램뛔쏱펪룟뿆벼웳튵몼훝뫣짺뗧ퟓ막럝폐쿞릫쮾뷸탐[28]헻쳥볛횵움맀ꎻ헔쏷퓚웤늩쪿싛컄훐퓲퓋폃햽싔탔웚좨샭싛퇐뺿쇋뒴탂춶[29]뻶닟틔벰퓋폃뺺헹웚좨샭싛퇐뺿쇋럇뛀햼벼쫵뗄볛횵움맀ꎻ뛸췵쿾캡퓚웤늩쪿싛컄훐퓲퓋폃쇋믹폚췸싧럖컶램ꎨANPꎩ뗄쒣탍살뛔튻킩췸싧룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄[30]볛횵뷸탐쇋ퟛ뫏움맀ꆣ 퇐뺿퇹놾 본폚웕춨짏쫐릫쮾볛횵움맀뗄쪵횤퇐뺿틑뺭폐늻짙퇐뺿헟폐쯹짦쇔ꎬ쯹틔놾컄쳘틢듓2009쓪9퓂룕룕뾪냬뗄컒맺뒴튵냥횤좯쫐뎡짏톡좡쇋튻볒룟뿆벼웳튵짏쫐릫쮾ꆪꆪ샊뿆뿆벼ퟷ캪쪵횤낸샽살ퟶ볛횵움맀퇐뺿ꆣ컒쏇횪뗀ꎬ훐맺횤좯쫐뎡퓚뒴튵냥짐캴뾪럅횮잰ꎬ튻횱붫룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄죚훃폚짮?훐킡냥쫐뎡훐뷸탐ꎬ떫쫇훐킡냥쫐뎡뛔폚릫쮾펯샻뗈닆컱쫽뻝뻹폐뷏룟튪쟳ꎬ쯹틔떼훂튻킩웈쟐폐죚탨쟳뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵컞램듯떽IPO튪쟳ꆣ떫쫇쯦ퟅ뒴튵냥쫐뎡뗄돉솢ꎬ헢튻컊쳢뗃떽쇋뫜뫃뗄뷢뻶ꎬ풽살풽뛠뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵쯤좻튻쪱쎻폐쳥쿖돶룟펯샻뫍솼뫃돉뎤탔ꎬ떫쫇튲뗃떽쇋짏쫐죚뗄믺믡ꎬ뷢뻶쇋뒴튵돵웚벱탨뗄뷰ꆣ듋췢ꎬ룃냥뿩뫜뛠짏쫐릫쮾퓚닆컱쫽뻝ꎬ릫쮾ힴ뿶ꆢ뷰쿖ힴ뗈랽쏦뻹뫍뒫춳뗄훐킡냥횤좯쫐뎡짏쫐릫쮾폐쯹늻춬ꎬ쯹틔톡좡뒴튵냥쫐뎡뗄짏쫐릫쮾살뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ컞틉뻟폐튻뚨뗄쳘쫢틢틥뫍퇐뺿탂틢ꆣ 뺭맽즸톡ꎬ뇊헟뻶뚨톡좡뻟폐튻뚨횪쏻뛈뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵샊뿆뿆벼ꎨ횤좯듺싫300042ꎩퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꆣ 퇹놾볲뷩 샊뿆뿆벼좫돆짮?쫐샊뿆뿆벼막럝폐쿞릫쮾ꎨNETAC TECHNOLOGY CO, LTD. ꎩꎬ폚2010쓪1퓂8죕퓚짮?뒴튵냥횤좯쫐뎡릫뾪짏쫐ꎬ랢탐쫽솿캪1680췲막ꎬ랢탐볛룱캪39풪ꎬ폫횮뛔펦뗄랢탐쫐펯싊캪76놶ꆣ램죋막336췲ꎬ틑랢탐캴짏쫐짧믡릫훚막5336췲막ꎬ폐쿞쫛쳵볾막뫏볆5000췲막ꆣ 샊뿆뿆벼릫쮾힢닡놾5000췲풪ꎬ쫇튻볒튵듓쫂직듦펦폃벰틆뚯듦뒢닺욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛뗄릩펦짌폫돶뿚짌ꎬ맺쓚캨튻펵폐직듦엌랢쏷샻뗄뎧짌ꎬ좫쟲직듦엌벰직듦펦폃쇬폲닺욷폫뷢뻶랽낸뗄쇬떼헟ꆣ릫쮾틑탎돉폅엌ꆢ 40
폅뾨ꆢ폅탅춨죽듳횧훹닺욷ꎬ틔ꆰ폅엌ꆱ캪짌뇪뗄직듦엌쫇쫀뷧짏쫗뒴뗄믹폚USB뷓뿚ꆢ닉폃직듦뷩훊뗄탂튻듺듦뒢닺욷ꆣ릫쮾퇐랢쪵솦잿듳ꎬ펵폐뛠쿮횪쪶닺좨뫍샻ꎬ퓚틆뚯듦뒢뫍컞쿟쫽뻝쇬폲뻓폚좫쟲쇬쿈뗘캻ꆣ릫쮾틑폫뚫횥ꆢ뷰쪿뛙ꆢ쏀맺PNYꆢ좺솪뗈좫쟲횪쏻웳튵잩뚩샻쫚좨탭뿉킭틩ꎬ닺욷풶쿺떽쏀맺ꆢ얷훞ꆢ죕놾ꆢ훐뚫ꆢ뚫쓏퇇뗈쫽쪮룶맺볒폫뗘쟸ꎬ뿍뮧뇩벰뗧탅ꆢ헾뢮ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ뷌폽ꆢ쓜풴뫍튽튩뗈쇬폲ꆣ 샊뿆뿆벼ퟔ돉솢틔살ꎬ튻횱힢폚직듦펦폃틔벰틆뚯듦뒢닺욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛틔벰쿠맘벼쫵뗄샻퓋펪튵컱ꎬ퓚직듦펦폃틔벰틆뚯듦뒢쇬폲ꎬ랢탐죋샻벰뫋탄벼쫵돶폚쇬쿈뗘캻ꎬ닺욷욷없죏횪뛈룟ꎬ맺쓚쫐뎡햼폐싊컈뚨뻓잰ꆣ릫쮾뗄뺺헹폅쫆훷튪쳥쿖퓚튵뗄퇐랢췅뛓뫍퇐랢쪵솦ꆢ럡뢻뗄샻쳥쾵ꆢ돉릦뗄샻퓋펪뺭퇩벰틔벼쫵캪횧독뗄닺욷욷없뗈랽쏦ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ튵뗄퇐랢뛓컩뫍퇐랢쪵솦ꎺ룃릫쮾펵폐튻횧쪵솦잿듳뗄퇐랢뛓컩ꎬ퇐랢맜샭췅뛓뻟폐뛠쓪몣췢톧쾰릤ퟷ맜샭뗄뺭퇩ꎬ펵폐놾뿆틔짏톧샺뗄죋풱햼좫늿퇐랢죋풱뗄65%ꆣ몭룇잰햰탔벼쫵퇐뺿뫍닺욷뾪랢뗄뛠닣듎퇐랢욽첨폐킧놣횤쇋릫쮾뗄퇐랢쿈뷸탔ꎬ늢쓜룹뻝쫐뎡탅쾢뾪랢돶싺ퟣ쿻럑헟쫐뎡탨쟳뗄닺욷ꆣ릫쮾퇐랢짨볆짦벰뿘훆킾욬짨볆ꆢ샻벼쫵퇐랢ꆣ닺욷뾪랢ꆢ뿘훆킾욬퇐랢ꆢ직듦쒣뿩벰뷢뻶랽낸퇐랢뗈맘볼뮷뷚ꆣ릫쮾벼쫵퇐랢돉맻럡쮶ꎬ퓚맺쓚맺췢쫚좨믲헽퓚짪쟫뗄랢쏷샻좨듯298쿮ꆣ 샊뿆뿆벼릫쮾죋풱햼뇈벰퇐랢죋풱톧샺뷡릹춼웤쯻퇐랢죋풱,놾뿆퇐랢죋풱,%%쮶쪿퇐랢죋풱,%웤쯻죋풱햼뇈,77% 춼5-1샊뿆뿆벼릫쮾죋풱햼뇈벰퇐랢죋풱톧샺뷡릹 ꎨ2ꎩ펵폐직듦엌쿠맘쇬폲뗄쾵쇐풭뒴탔믹뒡랢쏷샻ꆢ직듦펦폃벰틆뚯듦뒢쇬폲웤쯻뫋탄벼쫵벰샻ꆣ샊뿆뿆벼ퟷ캪맺쓚췢ퟮ퓧짦ퟣ직듦펦폃벰틆뚯듦뒢쇬폲뗄릫쮾횮튻ꎬ춨맽솬탸벼쫵뒴탂ꎬ싊쿈퓚튵쓚췆돶쇋믹폚USB뷓뿚ꆢ닉폃직듦캪뷩훊뗄듦뒢닺욷ꆪꆪ직듦엌ꎬ늢퓚맺쓚짪쟫쇋뗚뫅훐맺 41
랢쏷샻ꎬ틔벰뫳탸뗄튻쾵쇐풭뒴탔믹뒡랢쏷샻벰웤쯻뫋탄샻ꆣ룃쾵쇐샻쳮늹쇋맺쓚직듦펦폃벰틆뚯듦뒢쇬폲20쓪컞뫋탄샻뗄뿕냗ꎬ늢퓚듋믹뒡짏볌탸퇐랢쇋튻쾵쇐웤쯻뫋탄벼쫵벰샻ꎬ탎돉쇋췪헻뗄샻늼뻖뫍ꆰ샻돘ꆱꆣ 샊뿆뿆벼2006-2008쓪샻쫚좨쫕죫퓶뎤춼췲풪쓪뛈2007쓪뛈2008쓪뛈 춼5-2 샊뿆뿆벼2006ꆪ2008쓪샻쫚좨쫕죫퓶뎤춼 ꎨ3ꎩ퇏쏜뗄샻쳥쾵벰돉릦뗄샻퓋펪뺭퇩ꎺ샊뿆뿆벼ퟔ1999쓪돉솢틔살ꎬ쪮럖훘쫓횪쪶닺좨짪쟫뫍놣뮤ꎬ뷘횹2009쓪9퓂30죕ꎬ랢탐죋틑믱쫚좨샻릲볆116쿮ꎬ웤훐랢쏷샻79쿮ꎬ쇭폐220쿮랢쏷샻짐퓚짪쟫맽돌훐ꎬ릫쮾샻쫚좨벰짪쟫쫂쿮짦벰좫쫀뷧쪮뛠룶맺볒뫍뗘쟸ꆣ룃샻늼뻖뫍횪쪶닺좨쳥쾵믹뒡퓺쪵ꎬ늼뻖췪헻ꆣ춨맽뷼쪮쓪뗄샻짪쟫ꆢ샻캬좨ꆢ샻쫚좨탭뿉뗈쪵볹ꎬ믽샛쇋럡뢻뗄샻퓋펪뺭퇩ꆣ쒿잰틑뺭폫Toshibaꎨ뚫횥ꎩꆢKingstonꎨ뷰쪿뛙ꎩꆢ쏀맺Pnyꎨ뇘뛷췾ꎩ뗈좫쟲횪쏻웳튵잩풼샻쫚좨쪹폃탭뿉킭틩ꎬ붨솢쇋뛀쳘뗄샻펯샻짌튵쒣쪽ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ틔벼쫵캪횧독뗄닺욷욷없샊뿆뿆벼ퟷ캪직듦엌탐튵뗄뾪뒴헟ꆢ랢쏷샻뗄폐헟ꎬ뺭맽뛠쓪랢햹ꎬ틑틑룟벼쫵ꆢ룟탔쓜ꆢ룟훊솿뗄닺욷탎쿳톸쯙햼쇬맺쓚췢훐룟뛋쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬ2003쓪4퓂ꎬ폅엌놻움캪ꆰ맣뚫쪡훸쏻짌뇪ꆱꎬ2006쓪9퓂ꎬ폅엌없직듦엌놻움캪ꆰ맣뚫쪡쏻없닺욷ꆱꆣ 뷼쓪살ꎬ릫쮾직듦엌뗈닺욷틔룟뿆벼ꆢ룟탔쓜ꆢ룟훊솿뗄닺욷탎쿳톸쯙햼쇬맺쓚훐룟뛋닺욷쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬ뷼죽쓪릫쮾직듦엌퓚맺쓚훐룟뛋쫐뎡뗄햼폐싊럖뇰듯떽%ꆢ%ꆢ%ꆣ룃릫쮾늻뷶퓚맺쓚룷쪡쫐붨솢쇋붡뾵컈뚨뗄펪쿺췸싧쳥쾵ꎬ늢훰늽째춸떽죽쯄벶돇쫐ꎬ춬쪱퓚몣췢늻뛏랢햹럖쿺짌ꆢ훕뛋뿍뮧ꎬ볓쏋맺볊뗧ퟓ쿺쫛욽첨ꎬ늢믽벫닎볓룷훖맺볊햹믡ꎬ캪닺욷횪쏻뛈볌탸퓶룟듲쿂솼뫃믹뒡ꆣ 42
ꎨ5ꎩ펪쿺췸싧벰욷없퓋펪맦뮮ꎺ룃릫쮾튻횱훂솦폚췆뚯펪쿺췸싧췘햹ꆢ폅뮯쿺쫛훕뛋뗄늼뻖뷡릹ꆣ헢킩맦뮮냼삨쟸폲듺샭펪쿺췸싧ꆢ죭볾랢탐벰릤튵뿘훆뗈탐튵펪쿺췸싧ꆢ뗧ퟓ짌컱펪쿺췸싧ꆢ뗧웷솬쯸뗪벰컄뻟솬쯸뗪펪쿺췸싧ꆣ듋췢ꎬ룃릫쮾뮹듳솦췘햹맺볊펪쿺췸싧ꎬ죧맺볊뗧ퟓ쿺쫛욽첨틔벰맺볊햹믡뗈ꆣ 톡좡룃퇐뺿퇹놾뗄샭평뫍쇏살풴 듓샊뿆뿆벼뗄뷩짜훐컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ룃릫쮾퓚랢햹훐뛔탂벼쫵뗄퇐랢춶솦뛈튻횱쿠떱듳ꎬ뛸쟒헢튻춶쫆춷떽쒿잰캪횹죔퓚볌탸ꆣ릫쮾ퟷ캪뒴튵냥짏쫐뗄잰벸엺막욱훐뗄횪쏻웳튵ꎬ뿉틔뾴돉쫇룟뿆벼웳튵돉릦짏쫐죚뗄듺뇭ꆣ헽틲캪룟뿆벼벼쫵웳튵뗄맢뮷ꎬ쯹틔뒴튵냥쫐뎡짏쿠떱뛠뗄막욱뚼놻쫐뎡뚨돶쇋쿠뛔뷏룟뗄볛룱ꎬ쿠뛔폚쯼쏇뗄펯샻ힴ뿶ꎬ뒫춳맀횵랽램췹췹솦늻듓탄ꆣ쇭췢튻랽쏦ꎬ컒쏇튲뿉틔듓샊뿆뿆벼뗄놣볶죋욽낲횤좯돶뻟뗄놣볶쇏훐뾴떽ꎬ룃릫쮾돽쇋튻쾵쇐탐튵폅쫆췢ꎬ튲듦퓚ퟅ샽죧샻쫕죫늻컈뚨럧쿕ꆢ닺튵훜웚탔늨뚯럧쿕ꆢ풭닄쇏볛룱늨뚯럧쿕ꆢ퇐랢죋닅뒢놸늻ퟣ뗈튻쾵쇐뿉쓜뗄럧쿕ꆣ헢킩럧쿕뻛벯퓚튻웰ꎬ쪹뗃룃웳튵헽럻뫏쇋룟뿆벼웳튵룟쫕틦룟럧쿕뗄쳘헷ꎬ헢퇹뻍럇뎣폐뇘튪닉폃쪵컯웚좨뚨볛램뛔헢퇹뗄룟뿆벼웳튵뷸탐맀횵ꎬ듓뛸뗃돶쿠뛔ힼ좷뗄막볛ꆣ헢뛔폚맣듳횤좯춶헟ꆢ럖컶쪦살쮵ꎬ뚼폐뇈뷏훘튪뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ 뇊헟죏캪ꎬ평폚샊뿆뿆벼퓚맺쓚춬탐튵훐컞싛쫇벼쫵쪵솦ꆢ쫐뎡햼폐싊뮹쫇캴살랢햹잰뺰짏뚼쫇쫗쟼튻횸뗄ꎬ틲듋톡퓱쯼ퟷ캪놾컄룟뿆벼벼쫵웳튵맀횵뗄퇐뺿퇹놾ꎬ뻟폐뷏잿뗄쮵럾솦뫍듺뇭탔ꆣ 쿂쏦뗄낸샽쪵횤훐폃떽뗄쇏살풴죧쿂:릫쮾닆컱놨뇭평룃릫쮾퓚뻞뎱톶췸췸햾엻슶뗄릫뾪닆컱놨뇭캪ힼꆣ움맀훐돶쿖뗄풤닢쫽뻝좡ퟔ튻킩횤좯짌뗄퇐뺿놨룦ꎬ쎿죕쫕엌볛쇏평틸뫓횤좯쮫ퟓ탇막욱붻틗쾵춳틔벰뚫랽닆뢻췸췸햾뒴튵냥냥뿩뗄쫽뻝훐믱좡ꆣ 뻞뎱톶췸췸횷ꎺ 뚫랽닆뢻췸췸횷ꎺ 좡ퟔ퇹놾뗄닎쫽맀볆 놾컄쓢닉좡Schwartz & moon쪵컯웚좨움볛맀횵쒣탍ꎬ닉폃샊뿆뿆벼2006-2008죽쓪췪헻뗄닆컱놨뇭틔벰2009쓪잰죽벾뛈뗄쫽뻝ꆣ본폚룃쒣탍캪솬탸쪱볤뗄슷뺶쿠틀쒣탍ꎬ늢틔샫즢쪱볤쒣탍뇆뷼ꎬ쯹틔퓚쿂쏦뗄맀횵움볛훐뢨틔쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램뗄펦폃ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬ탨붫릫쪽훐쯹탨뗄룷룶닎쫽뫍뛀솢뗄쯦믺뇤솿듺죫ꎬ뿉틔쟳뗃룷웚쫕죫ꎬ평듋뗃돶룷웚릫쮾돉놾ꆢ쮰뫳뺻샻죳ꆢ뿉폃쿖뷰뫍볌탸뺭펪볛횵ꎬ듋뒦볌탸뺭펪볛횵뿉퓝볙뚨캪10놶뗄BEITDAꎬ폃볆쯣믺돌탲랴뢴쒣쓢퓋쯣1000듎 43
ꎨ놣횤ퟣ릻뛠뗄듎쫽ꎩꎬퟮ뫳볓ퟜ웳튵볛횵퓙쟳뗃욽뻹횵ꆣퟮ뫳퓙틔짧믡욽뻹컞럧쿕샻싊쟳뗃룃볛횵뗄쿖횵ꎬ벴캪쒿잰뗄웳튵헻쳥볛횵ꆣ 쿖붫뻟쳥듺죫뗄늽훨볇슼죧쿂ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ듓샊뿆뿆벼2008쓪뗄쯰틦뇭훐맛달뗃떽쿺쫛쫕죫뺻뛮캪607,589,006풪ꎬ틔튻룶벾뛈캪웚볤떥캻퓙맛달뗃떽2006 쓪ꆪꆪ2008쓪릲12룶벾뛈뗄릫쮾닆컱놨뇭쫽뻝ꎬ뗃돶쎿벾뛈쫕죫돉뎤싊욽뻹횵µ캪11%ꎬ쫕죫뇪ힼ닮δ캪 %ꆣ뷓ퟅ듓펪튵쫕죫뺻뛮뗄쎿벾뛈돉뎤싊닮뛮쟳뗃웤뇪ힼ닮ꎬ볆쯣돶쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊뇪ힼ닮η캪% ꆣꎨ헢쪱룹뻝Schwartz & Moon쒣탍훐짨뚨뗄볙짨ꎬ0붫쫕죫뇤뚯폚풤웚퓶뎤싊뇤뚯뗄쿠맘쾵쫽뚨캪0ꆣꎩ ꎨ2ꎩ캪쇋톡좡뫍샊뿆뿆벼퓚닺맦쒣ꎬ탐튵쳘헷짏뚼뷼쯆뗄웳튵ퟷ캪닎뾼ꎬ쳘뇰뾼싇떽뒴튵냥웳튵퓚죚놳뺰짏뗄릲탔ꎬ놾컄훘뗣퓚뒴튵냥쫐뎡뗄룟벼쫵웳튵훐톡좡쇋튻릲쪮컥볒룟탂벼쫵웳튵ꎬ붫쯼쏇ퟷ캪맀볆탐튵뎤웚쫕죫돉뎤싊뫍뎤웚쫕죫돉뎤싊뇪ힼ닮뗄닎뾼쫽뻝살풴ꆣ헢킩릫쮾럖뇰캪짱훝첩퓀ꎨ횤좯듺싫300002ꎩꆢ뚦몺벼쫵ꎨ횤좯듺싫300011ꎩꆢ췸쯞뿆벼ꎨ횤좯듺싫300017ꎩꆢ맨놦뿆벼ꎨ횤좯듺싫300019ꎩꆢ믺웷죋(횤좯듺싫300024)ꆢ뷰퇇뿆벼ꎨ횤좯듺싫300028ꎩꆢ쳬쇺맢뗧ꎨ횤좯듺싫300029ꎩꆢ퇴웕튽쇆(횤좯듺싫300030)ꆢ룖퇐룟쓉ꎨ횤좯듺싫300034ꎩꆢ뎬춼죭볾(횤좯듺싫300036)ꆢ뻅훞뗧웸(횤좯듺싫300040)ꆢ뮪솦뒴춨ꎨ횤좯듺싫300045ꎩꆢ얷뇈쳘ꎨ횤좯듺싫300053ꎩꆢ뚦쇺막럝ꎨ횤좯듺싫300054ꎩꆢ죽캬쮿ꎨ횤좯듺싫300056ꎩꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ붫헢쪮컥볒짏쫐릫쮾쎿벾뛈돉뎤싊욽뻹뫳뗃돶뎤웚쫕죫돉뎤싊µ캪 % ꎬ뷴뷓ퟅ쟳뗃웤욽뻹뇪ힼ닮ꎬ뿉뗃뎤웚쫕죫돉뎤싊뇪ힼ닮δ캪 %ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ맺볒쿖탐뗄웳튵쯹뗃쮰쮰싊캪25%ꎬ틲듋릫쪽훐뗄쮰싊r뚨캪25%ꆣc룃쒣탍훐짨뚨뗄컞럧쿕샻싊튻냣캪뿉짨뚨캪죽룶퓂뛌웚맺햮샻싊ꎬ내헕컒맺쿖탐뗄죽룶퓂맺햮샻싊뿉뗃듋쫽횵캪%ꎬ벴r캪%ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ퓚맀볆돉뎤싊쯦믺맽돌뗄믘뢴욽뻹쯙뛈k쪱ꎬ뿉닎뾼횤좯움맀믺릹뗄짨뚨붫k뚨캪ퟳ폒ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ본폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵훐만뚨돉놾튻냣햼쫕죫뗄뇈샽뚼늻믡첫듳ꎬ틲듋뿉붫돉놾볲뮯짨뚨캪햼쫕죫뗄만뚨뇈샽ꆣ뷓ퟅꎬ펪튵돉놾뫍펪튵럑폃쿠볓뫳뿉뗃쎿벾뛈뗄웳튵ퟜ돉놾ꎬ폃헢룶쫽횵돽짏쎿벾뛈뗄펪튵쫕죫뺻뛮ꎬ뿉뗃돶쎿벾뛈돉놾햼떽쫕죫뗄뇈싊ꎬ내헕볆쯣뗃떽뗄욽뻹횵ꎬ뿉ퟮ훕뗃떽돉놾햼떽쫕죫뗄뇈싊듳풼퓚74%ퟳ폒ꆣ ꎨ6ꎩ쫕죫틲쯘뗄럧쿕쳹쮮λ캪ρ뫍δ뗄돋믽ꎬ틲듋탨튪쿖탐쟳돶짏횤RMm2006쓪훁2008쓪릲12룶벾뛈뗄볓좨막욱볛룱횸쫽놨돪싊틔벰쫕죫돉뎤싊솽헟뗄쿠맘쾵쫽ρꎬ뺭맽볆쯣ꎬ헢룶쫽횵듳훂뿉좡캪-0. 4128ꎬ듳엌횸쫽놨돪싊RM뗄뇪ힼ닮δ캪ꎬ뷓ퟅ뗃돶럧쿕뗄쫐뎡볛룱λ캪ꆣ mꎨ7ꎩ퓚튻냣뗄쿖뷰쇷솿헛쿖램훐ꎬ컒쏇튻냣붫릫쮾좡룟뛮놨돪뗄쓪쿞뚨캪10쓪ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ퓚놾쒣탍훐ꎬ컒쏇춬퇹톡좡10쓪ퟷ캪짨뚨웚볤ꎬ벴볙뚨10 44
쓪뫳릫쮾늽죫컈뚨헽뎣쫕죫ꆣ웳튵훕횵짨뚨캪10놶뗄EBITDAꆣ쇭췢ꎬ놾샫즢쪱볤쒣탍뗄쪱볤퓶솿∆t짨뚨캪튻벾뛈ꆣ 샻폃볆쯣믺돌탲짨훃닎쫽 뺭맽뾼달ꎬ뻶뚨톡폃죭볾살뷸탐뇠돌틔벰짨훃닎쫽죧쿂ꎨ룃죭볾튻냣폃살쫽톧ꆢ튽톧ꆢ붨훾ꆢ뺭볃ꆢ뷰죚톧뗈튵뗄룟뗈쫽톧볆쯣ꎬ뻟폐뷏뫃뗄럂헦탔ꎩꎺ R=zeros(100);%뚨틥쫕죫 u=zeros(100);%뚨틥쫕틦싊 C=zeros(100);%뚨틥돉놾 Y=zeros(100);%뚨틥쮰뫳뺻샻 X=zeros(100);%뚨틥쿖뷰 B=zeros(100);%뚨틥쫕죫뇪ힼ닮 Be=zeros(100);%뚨틥쫕죫풤웚돉뎤싊뇪ힼ닮 tl=lꎻ%벾뛈뇤솿 k=;%돉뎤싊믘뢴욽뻹횵 c1=1;%듓뎣첬럖엤돩돶뗄쯦믺뇤쫽 c2=1;%듓뎣첬럖엤돩돶뗄쯦믺뇤쫽 lm= umean= Bmean= a= b= F=171427800;%뚨틥만뚨돉놾 T=;%쪱볤볤룴 r=;%컞럧쿕쫕틦싊 M=10;놶싊 Sum=0;볛횵볓ퟜ B0= Be0= R(1)= 607589006 U(1)= for t=1:10 R(t+t1)=R(t)*exp((u)-lm*B(t)-(B(t)Λ2/2))*tl+B(t)*sqrt(tl)*cl); 45
Umean=(umean*(t-1)+u(t)/t; U(t+t1)=exp(-k*t1)*u(t)+(1-exp(-k*t1)*umean+sqrt(((1-exp(-2*k*t1))/2*k)*Be(t)))*c2; B(t)=BO*exp(-k*t)+Bmean*(1-exp(-k*t)); Bmean=(Bmean*(t-1)+B(t))/t: Be(t)=Beo*exp(-k*t): C(t)=(a+b)*R(t)+F; Y(t)=(R(t)-C(t)*(1-T); Sum=sum+(X(t)+M*(R(t)-C(t)))*exp(-r*t): end sum 힢ꎺ룃돌탲훐쯹탨뗄닎쫽뻹돶ퟔ샊뿆뿆벼막럝폐쿞릫쮾퓚릫뾪닆뺭췸햾짏엻슶뗄2008쓪뗚쯄벾뛈닆컱놨룦ꎬ죧쫕죫Rꎨ1ꎩ=607589006, 만뚨돉놾F=171427800뗈ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ웤쯻욽뻹닎쫽뗄볆쯣튲쫇틀헕2006ꆪꆪ2008쓪뗄15볒뒴튵냥릫쮾뗄릫뾪닆컱놨뇭쫽뻝뛸뗃ꎬ뷘횹쪱볤뻹캪2008쓪12퓂ꆣ 쪵횤뷡맻 평짏쫶맀볆돶뗄닎쫽틔벰닆컱놨뇭쫽뻝ꎬ닉좡쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램퓚뗧쓔짏쒣쓢10000듎ꎬ볆쯣뿉뗃샊뿆뿆벼릫쮾볛횵풼캪2,487,200,000풪ꎬ붫룃볛횵쫽뿛돽뢺햮볛횵55ꎬ054ꎬ828풪ꎬ뿉뗃 2,932,145,172 풪ꆣ뺭맽쫽듎막좨뇤뚯뫳ꎬ훁2008쓪뗗샊뿆뿆벼막럝폐쿞릫쮾쇷춨퓚췢막쫽캪70,160,000막ꆣ뿉뗃쎿막샭싛볛룱캪풪ꆣ 룃쒣탍냼삨쇋뷘횹2008쓪뗗샊뿆뿆벼막럝폐쿞릫쮾뗄닆컱놨뇭릫뾪쫽뻝뫍쫐뎡짏맘폚룃릫쮾뗄릫뾪탅쾢ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ내헕룃쒣탍쯹쯣돶뗄샭싛막볛뿉틔돉캪쫐뎡짏뗄막뚫틔벰잱퓚춶죋ퟶ돶뛔웤막볛쫇럱뫏샭에뛏뗄튻룶틀뻝ꆣ샭싛짏죏캪ꎬ볙죧쫐뎡짏뗄샊뿆뿆벼쪵볊막볛뗍폚풪뗄움맀막볛퓲뿉싲뷸ꎬ랴횮ꎬ퓲펦룃싴돶룃릫쮾막욱ꆣ 평폚짏쫶쒣탍볆쯣뷡맻쫇믹폚뷘횹2008쓪뗗룃릫쮾틔벰쫐뎡짏뗄릫뾪쫽뻝쯹뗃돶뗄ꎬ쯹틔막볛맀횵뷡맻랴펳뗄쫇쿂튻룶웚볤벴2009쓪뗚튻벾뛈뗄릫쮾막욱볛룱쟩뿶ꆣ떫평폚샊뿆뿆벼퓚2009쓪짐캴짏쫐ꎬ쟒ퟮ탂뗄2009쓪뛈믡볆닆컱놨뇭짐캴헽쪽엻슶ꎬ쟒횱떽2010쓪1퓂닅짏쫐ꎬ쯹틔퓝쪱틔2008쓪뗗쫽뻝살췆뛏2010쓪뗄막볛쫇럱뫏샭ꆣ듓닆뺭췸햾짏뗃떽뗄막볛쫽뻝뗃횪ꎬ2010쓪1퓂-2퓂ꎬ샊뿆뿆벼쪵볊욽뻹막욱볛룱돽쇋퓚짏쫐횮돵퓢떽뎴탂폎뗄뎴ퟷ뛸돥짏맽52-60풪뗄룟뗣췢ꎬ듋뫳훰늽쿂뗸ꎬ쿖튻횱캬돖퓚40풪ퟳ폒ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ내헕놾쒣탍룸돶뗄풪쎿막뗄맀횵ꎬ뿉틔에뛏돶룃릫쮾룕짏쫐쪱쫐뎡ힷ엵뒴튵냥막욱뛸룸돶뗄50뛠풪룟볛틑뺭폐쏷쿔뗄룟맀ꎬ볛횵뫍볛룱닺 46
짺쇋뷏듳뗄놳샫ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚뷓쿂살뗄막볛ퟟ쫆훐컒쏇맛달떽ꎬ춶헟튲뫜뿬죏쪶떽쇋헢훖룟맀ꎬ쫐뎡짏룃릫쮾막볛뾪쪼붥붥쿂뗸ꎬ쿖퓚뗄쎿막볛룱40풪펦룃쿠뛔샭탔뗃뛠ꆣ뛔펦폚풪뗄샭싛맀횵ꎬ쿖퓚뗄막볛쯤좻뾴짏좥죔폐튻뚨뗄룟맀ꎬ떫뾼싇떽쒣탍닎쫽뗄맀볆놾뻍뿉쓜듦퓚욫닮ꎬ퓙볓짏헻룶뒴튵냥쫐뎡뗄막욱틲캪웤뛀쳘뗄룅쓮튻횱뚼폐맀횵욫룟뗄쿖쿳ꎬ쯹틔뇊헟죏캪ꎬ쿖퓚샊뿆뿆벼릫쮾40풪ퟳ폒뗄막볛쫇뇈뷏뫏샭뗄ꆣ컈붡탔춶헟뿉퓚쒿잰볛캻짏맛췻ꎬ뛸벤뷸탍춶헟뿉닎뾼헻룶듳엌ퟟ쫆틔벰헻룶뒴튵냥뗄뷰뷸돶뷷짷닎폫ꎬ쫊솿싲죫ꆣ 떱좻ꎬ2009쓪샊뿆뿆벼좫쓪ퟮ탂뗄쓪뛈닆컱놨뇭풼퓚2010쓪4-6퓂릫늼ꎬ춶죋뻍뿉듺죫탂뗄돵횵쟳돶ퟮ탂뗄샭싛볛룱ꎬ퓙틀뻝쪵볊막볛ퟷ춶뻶닟ꆣ 쏴룐뛈럖컶 춨맽뛔쒣탍훐훘튪닎쫽뗄럖컶ꎬ헒돶웤뛔웳튵볛횵뗄펰쿬돌뛈ꎬ돆횮캪쏴룐뛈럖컶ꆣ쿂쏦뻍뛔놾컄톡폃뗄Schwartz & Moon쒣탍훐뗄닎쫽뷸탐럖컶ꎬ훷튪랽램쫇뛔헢킩닎쫽럖뇰뇤뚯쿠펦뗄헽뢺냙럖뇈ꎬ뷨틔맛달평듋뛸닺짺뗄쒣탍볛횵뇤뚯듳킡ꆣ놾쒣탍훐뗄닎쫽뛠듯쪮웟룶ꎬ뺭맽뇤뚯럖컶뫳ꎬ뗃돶죧쿂맛달뷡싛ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ쫕죫돉뎤싊쯦믺맽돌뗄믘뢴욽뻹쯙뛈Kꎺ룃닎쫽뇤킡쪱ꎬ뇭쪾믘뢴욽뻹뗄쯙뛈뇤싽ꎬ벴닺욷짺쏼훜웚뇤뎤ꎬ웳튵뗄뺺헹뻟폐폅쫆뗄웚볤뇤뎤ꎬ믡쪹뗃뛔웳튵볛횵헽쿲뇤뚯ꆣ틲듋ꎬ믘뢴욽뻹쯙뛈K뿉틔쫓캪놾쒣탍훐훘튪닎쫽ꎬ퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵움맀훐튪짷훘짨뚨ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ쿺믵돉놾햼쫕죫뗄뇈싊αꎺ 쿺믵돉놾햼쫕죫뗄뇈싊α뿉틔춸맽쮰뫳뺻샻Y뛔웳튵볛횵닺짺펰쿬ꆣ맛달랢쿖ꎬ떱α퓶볓10%쪱ꎬ믡퓬돉웳튵볛횵풼t쿂붵룟듯30%틔짏ꆣ틲뛸뗃돶뷡싛ꎬ벴α퓶볓풽뛠ꎬ웳튵볛횵퓲쿂붵풽킡ꆣ틲듋a튲쫇놾쒣탍훐훘튪닎쫽ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ맀볆쟸볤TꎺT뇭쪾룃웳튵뿉틔믱뗃룟뛮놨돪싊뗄쪱볤뎤뛌ꎬT풽듳ꎬ퓲웳튵뻍뿉틔퓚풽뎤뗄쪱볤샯튻횱믮뗃룟뛮샻죳ꎬ떱좻웳튵볛횵풽룟ꆣ틲듋룃닎쫽튲쫇놾쒣탍뗄훘튪닎쫽ꎬT퓶럹듯떽10%쪱ꎬ웳튵볛횵풼퓶볓25%틔짏ꎬ볛캻뿉맛ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ웳튵뗄훕횵(M놶EBITDA)ꎺ 웳튵뗄훕횵뛔샭싛웳튵볛횵닺펰쿬튲뷏듳ꎬ죴짨뚨놶쫽M풽듳ꎬ쒣탍ퟮ훕뷡맻튲뻍풽듳ꆣ죴붫M평10놶퓶볓떽짨캪12놶ꎨ퓶볓20%ꎩꎬ퓲샭싛볛횵튲믡짏헇풼30%뗄럹뛈ꆣ 쒣탍훐짦벰뗄쇭췢튻킩닎쫽죧Rꆢδꆢηꆢλ뗈ꎬ춨맽럖컶랢쿖헢킩닎t00쫽뗄뇤뚯튲뛔쒣탍ퟮ훕볛횵튲믡닺짺튻뚨펰쿬ꎬ떫쫇펰쿬돌뛈뚼늻듳ꆣ 평틔짏쏴룐뛈럖컶뿉듳훂뗃틔쿂뷡싛ꎺ돉놾햼쫕죫뗄뇈싊αꆢ맀볆웚볤Tꆢ웳튵훕횵M뫍쫕죫돉뎤싊쯦믺맽돌뗄믘뢴욽뻹쯙뛈Kꎬ헢쯄룶쒣탍닎쫽퓚쯹폐 47
뗄닎쫽훐뷏캪훘튪ꎬ쯼쏇뗄뇤뚯믡솬듸폃룃쒣탍ퟮ훕볆쯣돶살뗄웳튵볛횵랢짺뇈뷏듳뗄뇤뮯ꆣ틲듋ꎬ웳튵펦퓶볓놾짭뗄뺺헹폅쫆ꎬ뾪랢탂벼쫵퇓뎤닺욷짺쏼훜웚ꎬ늢붵뗍돉놾ꎬ쳡룟쎫샻싊ꎬ헢퇹닅쓜캬돖룟막볛늢볌탸뒴퓬웳튵볛횵ꆣ 48
뗚쇹헂 뷡싛폫햹췻 훷튪퇐뺿컊쳢폫뒴탂뗣 평폚룟뿆벼닺튵퓚쿖뷱쫀뷧뺭볃훐햼폐벫훘튪뗄뗘캻ꎬ맊듋웤웳튵헻쳥볛횵움맀뗄틢틥쿔뗃룱췢춻돶ꆣ룟탂벼쫵웳튵췹췹뻟폐룟럧쿕룟쫕틦뗄쳘헷ꎬ탐튵ힴ뿶폖쿠뛔쮲쾢췲뇤ꎬ틲듋죧뫎뛔웤뷸탐볛횵움맀ꆢ톡좡뫎훖쫊떱뗄움볛쒣탍살움맀룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄헻쳥볛횵뫍막볛ꎬ튻횱쫇튻룶벫폐퇐뺿볛횵뗄뿎쳢ꆣ 놾컄훷튪퇐뺿쪵컯웚좨샭싛퓚쪵볊훐뗄펦폃ꎬ톡좡솬탸쪱볤쿂뗄Schwartz & Moon쪵컯웚좨쒣탍살닢쯣뒴튵냥쫐뎡막욱ꆰ샊뿆뿆벼ꆱ뗄웳튵볛횵뫍쎿막뫏샭막볛ꎬ늢붫닢쯣돶살뗄샭싛볛횵뫍룃막욱짏쫐틔살막볛ퟷ쇋뛔뇈ꎬ뷨틔퇩횤폃쒣탍맀쯣뗄샭싛볛횵뫍쫐뎡룸돶뗄볛횵횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뗃돶뗄뷡싛믹놾횤쪵샭싛막볛뫍쪵볊쫐뎡볛쿠닮늻듳ꎬ틲듋뇊헟죏캪쪵컯웚좨램퓚룟탂벼쫵웳튵쪵볊맀횵낸샽훐늻쪧캪튻훖뫜뫃뗄움볛랽램ꎬSchwartz & Moon쒣탍뗄쪵볊펦폃틢틥튲뇈뷏듳ꆣ뷴뷓ퟅꎬ놾컄폖뛔쒣탍훐뗄닎쫽ퟶ쇋볲떥뗄쏴룐뛈럖컶ꎬ에뛏돶펰쿬웳튵볛횵뗄훘튪닎쫽훷튪폐쯄룶ꎬ럖뇰쫇:쿺믵돉놾햼쫕죫뗄뇈싊ꆢ좡뎬뛮놨돪뗄웚볤ꆢ웳튵훕횵뫍쫕죫돉뎤싊쯦믺맽돌뗄믘뢴욽뻹쯙뛈ꆣ틲듋ꎬ웳튵쿫퓶볓ퟔ벺뗄헻쳥볛횵ꎬ쳘뇰쫇룟탂벼쫵웳튵ꎬ뿉틔뾼싇퓚붵뗍돉놾햼쫕죫뗄뇈싊ꆢ볓뎤좡뎬뛮놨돪뗄웚볤ꆢ쳡룟짺쏼닺욷훜웚뗈벸룶랽쏦ퟅ쫖ꎬ헢퇹닅쓜폐킧뗘볓잿뺺헹폅쫆ꎬ쳡룟쎫샻싊ꎬ뒴퓬룼듳뗄웳튵볛횵ꆣ퓚움맀샊뿆뿆벼릫쮾볛횵틔벰쎿막막볛뗄맽돌훐ꎬ놾컄볲뮯쇋Schwartz & Moon쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쒣탍ꎬ톡좡쇋쪮웟룶닎쫽살ퟷ캪맀쯣샊뿆뿆벼볛횵뗄뇤솿ꎬ늢퓋폃쇋ힼ쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢헢훖쫽횵랽램살쒣쓢맀횵맽돌ꎬퟮ훕쟳뗃웳튵뗄볛횵ꆣ 놾컄뿉쓜듦퓚뗄뒴탂뗣퓚폚ꎺ뛔폚Schwartz & Moon쒣탍뗄펦폃뾪췘쇋튻룶뷏탂뗄쇬폲ꆣ틔췹뗄쪵컯웚좨램뗄퇹놾퇐뺿췹췹벯훐퓚튻냣뗄룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾ꎬ뛸뇊헟톡좡뗄퇹놾뛔쿳쫇룕룕짨솢늻떽냫쓪뗄짮?뒴튵냥쫐뎡뗄막욱ꎬ쒿잰짐캴랢쿖폐죎뫎퇐뺿헢랽쏦퇹놾뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ짮?뒴튵냥쫐뎡헽퓚폐쳵늻컉뗘삩돤랢햹훐ꎬ쯼캪럧쿕춶뗄돶헟뫍벱탨죚뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵쳡릩쇋튻룶솼뫃뗄욽첨ꎬ듓뫜듳돌뛈짏뷢뻶쇋헢샠웳튵뗄죚뫍볌탸랢햹뗄튪쟳ꆣ틲듋뇊헟죏캪ꎬ뛔헢룶쫐뎡뗄퇹놾퇐뺿뻟폐튻뚨뗄쿈햰탔뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ 늻ퟣ횮뒦틔벰뷸튻늽퇐뺿랽쿲 놾컄퇐뺿뗄늻ퟣ횮뒦뿉쓜퓚폚ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ놾컄퓚뷸탐럖컶낸샽쪱뛔튻킩닎쫽뷸탐쇋죋캪맀볆ꎬ헢룶맽돌훐듦퓚늻뿉뇜쏢뗄훷맛에뛏ꎬ듓뛸떼훂볆쯣돶살뗄웳튵볛횵뿉쓜캴뇘뺫ힼ랴펳웤헦쪵뗄쪵볊볛횵ꎻ 49
ꎨ2ꎩ놾컄톡좡뗄Schwartz & Moon쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쒣탍뷶뷶쫇쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쒣탍훐뗄튻훖ꎬ틲캪욪럹쿞훆ꎬ놾컄캴쓜뻍룼뛠뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍쿂춬튻퇹놾뗄볛횵ퟷ돶뇈뷏ꎬ튲쎻쓜톡좡룼뛠뗄퇹놾살퇩횤춬튻쒣탍ꎻ ꎨ3ꎩ놾컄볆쯣쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쒣탍쪱뢨틔ힼ쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢램ꎬ떫평폚놾컄훘뗣늻퓚쫽톧볆쯣뫍볆쯣믺펦폃짏ꎬ맊듋룃랽램쿂돌탲짨볆뗄뫏샭탔ꆢힼ좷탔뻹캴ퟶ돶룼짮룼퇏뷷뗄첽쳖ꆣ 룟탂벼쫵웳튵볛횵움맀랽램뗄퇐뺿튻횱뒦퓚튻룶늻뛏췪짆뗄맽돌훐ꎬ쪵컯웚좨뚨볛램ퟔ듓쏦쫀틔살ꎬ뺭맽뛾죽쪮쓪뗄샭싛퇐뺿ꎬ틑탎돉쇋쿠뛔돉쫬뗄쒣탍뿲볜ꎬ퓚룃샠웳튵볛횵움맀훐뗃떽쇋듳솿펦폃ꆣ떫컒쏇튲뾴떽ꎬ퓚쪵볊펦폃훐ꎬ펦폃쪵컯웚좨램살움맀웳튵헻쳥볛횵틀좻폐늻ퟣ횮뒦ꎬ샽죧죧뫎헽좷쪶뇰릫쮾ꎨ믲쿮쒿ꎩ훐쯹냼몬뗄쪵컯웚좨ꆢ뛔릫쮾캴살랢햹잰뺰뗄풤닢ꆢ틔벰뻟쳥쒣탍뗄닎쫽맀볆ꎬ뚼듦퓚ퟅ튻뚨뗄삧쓑ꆣ떽쒿잰캪횹ꎬ붫쪵컯웚좨램퓋폃폚릫쮾볛횵뗄움맀뗄틢틥ꎬ훷튪죔퓚폚맛쓮뗄룼탂뫍쮼캬뗄췘햹ꎬ쾣췻헢훖쒣탍쓜릻뺫ힼ뗘퓚벼쫵랽램닣쏦짏뛔웳튵헻쳥볛횵ퟶ돶뚨볛ꎬ늢뷨듋ퟶ돶컞컳뗄춶에뛏ꎬ컞틉틀좻쫇삧쓑뗄ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬ퓚뷱뫳뗄퇐뺿훐죧뫎뷸튻늽룄짆쪵컯웚좨쒣탍뗄닎쫽짨훃ꎬ뗃돶룼볓뫏샭뗄돵쪼쫽횵ꎬ듓뛸룼볓뺫ힼ뗘맀볆쪵컯웚좨뗄뻟쳥볛횵ꎬ뗃돶룼볓뫏샭뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄막볛ꎬ쫇튻룶탨튪룼뛠퇐뺿살췪짆뗄뿎쳢ꎬ뛸룷훖랽램뗄ퟛ뫏룄뷸ꆢ죚뫏ꆢ펦폃ꎬ뚼뮹폐듽룼뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿뫍첽쳖ꆣ 50
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