뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭ꆡ2006쓪뗚6웚ꆡ훐맺튪쯘닺돶떯탔맀볆3[햪ꆡ튪]ꆡ튪쯘닺돶떯탔쫇럖컶뺭볃퓶뎤뗄벨킧ꆢ쳘헷폫뿉돖탸탔뗈컊쳢뗄훘튪닎쫽ꆣ컒맺룄룯뾪럅틔살튪쯘닺돶떯탔맀볆뷡맻쫇:1978-2004쓪,놾뗄닺돶떯탔욽뻹캪0156,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔욽뻹캪0144,늢쟒놾뗄닺돶떯탔돊늻뛏쿂붵쟷쫆,뛸샍뚯닺돶떯탔돊늻뛏짏짽쟷쫆;뚫늿뗘쟸뗄놾닺돶떯탔룟폚훐늿뗘쟸,훐늿뗘쟸폖룟폚컷늿뗘쟸;좫튪쯘짺닺싊쓪뻹퓶뎤싊퓚317%ꆫ319%횮볤ꆣ[맘볼듊]ꆡ튪쯘닺돶떯탔;짺닺몯쫽;쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍;럇닎쫽맀볆[훐컄럖샠뫅]F22419[컄쿗쪶뇰싫]A[컄헂뇠뫅]1000-596X(2006)06-0005-07ꆡꆡ럖컶컒맺뺭볃퓶뎤뗄벨킧ꆢ쳘헷폫뿉돖탸탔헢퇹,평폚쫽뻝늻춬,볆쯣뗄뷡맻췹췹닮뇰뷏듳ꆣ쪱,샫늻뾪뛔ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽훐튪쯘닺돶떯탔뗄맀죧쫀뷧틸탐훐맺뺭볃뾼달췅럖뇰볙뚨훐맺놾ꆢ샍볆ꆣ뺡맜탂맅뗤ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽폐웤만폐뗄좱쿝뫍쫽뚯뗄닺돶떯탔럖뇰캪014뫍016ꆢ016뫍014솽ퟩ뻝헻샭뗄삧쓑,뺭볃톧볒뮹쫇죈훔폚춨맽뛔ퟜ솿짺랽낸뷸탐퓶뎤틲쯘럖컶ꆣ[1]뛸헅뻼삩퓲죏캪,쯼쏇닺몯쫽뫍튪쯘닺돶떯탔뗄맀쯣살럖컶튻룶뺭볃쳥뗄펦좡017뫍013,샭평쫇쫐뎡뺭볃랢듯맺볒뿉틔폃룷훖튪쯘춶죫릱쿗뛈ꆢ뺭볃퓶뎤뗄풭틲,쳘뇰쫇벼놾폫샍뚯뷡뫏뇈샽뇭쪾춶죫튪쯘뗄닺돶떯탔ꆣ떫쫵뷸늽싊믲좫튪쯘짺닺싊쮮욽ꆣ웤훷튪풭틲퓚폚뫜훐맺퓚듦퓚듳솿잱퓚쪣폠샍뚯솦쟩뿶쿂,죴틔놾쓑헒떽튻룶룼뫃뗄짺닺몯쫽살쓢뫏뺭볃ꆣ퓚틑폐뗄폫샍뚯뗄뷡뫏뇈샽볆쯣닺돶떯탔,뻍믡듳듳룟맀샍짦벰뛔훐맺룄룯뾪럅틔살ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽뗄퇐뺿훐,뚯뗄닺돶떯탔,뛸샍뚯춶죫뗄퓶뎤뛔닺돶퓶뎤뗄릱듳뛠쫽쫇퓚쯷싥퓶뎤쒣탍믹뒡짏,퓋폃훐맺1978쿗쪮럖폐쿞ꆣ[2]쓪틔뫳ퟜ솿놾듦솿뫍샍뚯솦쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꆣ벴쪹놾컄쫔춼듓뛠룶뷇뛈뛔컒맺룄룯뾪럅틔살튪쯘
ꆡ뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭ꆡ2006쓪뗚6웚닺돶떯탔뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ튻쫇퓚쫽뻝톡좡짏,돽샻폃좫뷸튻늽볙뚨짺닺몯쫽벼쫵뷸늽쫇쪱볤t뗄몯맺ퟜ쳥쫽뻝췢,튲샻폃룷쪡뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝뫍쏦냥쫽뻝쫽,CꆪD짺닺몯쫽뿉킴캪Yt=A(t)La1Kꛂt,웤훐(panelpooldata);뛾쫇퓚볆쯣랽램짏,돽퓋폃웕A(t)뇭쪾뗚t웚뗄짺닺벼쫵쮮욽,볙짨A(t)=춨ퟮ킡뛾돋램맀볆췢,튲퓋폃럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀Aa0eTt,퓲폐Yt=Aa0eTtLatKꛂt,뛔룃쪽쟳좫캢럖늢헻볆ꆢ쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍맀볆뗈뛠훖맀볆랽램ꆣ탨튪쮵쏷샭뿉뗃:뗄쫇,놾컄맀볆뗄쫇뺭볃쳥뗄ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽뫍ퟜ쳥ꆡꆡIn(Yt)=ꛁ0+ꛁTt+ꛁIn(Lt)+ꛂIn(Kt)(5)튪쯘닺돶떯탔,늢늻뾼싇헢솽헟퓚룷쟸폲뫍룷뺭볃캪쇋폫(3)쪽쿠쟸뇰,컒쏇냑(5)쪽돆ퟷ쪱늿쏅뗄닮틬ꆣ평폚퓚틔췹뗄볆쯣훐,헹싛훷튪벯훐볤닎쫽램맀볆ꆣ쯼볈뿉틔럖컶튪쯘닺돶떯탔,튲뿉퓚놾뫍샍뚯헢솽훖ퟮ뎣볻뗄튪쯘닺돶떯탔짏,틲틔쮳뇣맀볆돶좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤싊ꛁTꆣ뛸놾컄튲횻럖컶놾뫍샍뚯헢솽훖ퟮ뎣볻뗄튪쯘닺(뛾)ퟮ킡뛾돋램맀볆돶떯탔,늻냼삨헾뢮횧돶ꆢ훆뛈뇤잨ꆢ죋솦놾뗈뇊헟쫗쿈샻폃좫맺헻쳥놾듦솿뫍샍뚯솦쫽뇤솿ꆣ뻝,폃뒫춳뗄ퟮ킡뛾돋램맀볆ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽ꆣ헢튲쫇쒿잰듳뛠쫽뛔ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽뗄맀볆랽램ꆣ좫맺헻튻ꆢ믹폚좫맺튪쯘ퟜ솿쳥놾듦솿닉폃헅뻼ꆢ헂풪[4]쏅뛔컒맺놾듦솿춶죫쫽뻝뗄럖컶뷸탐맀볆뗄쫽뻝,샍뚯솦닉폃ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ춳볆뗄쎿쓪듓튵죋풱쫽뻝ꆣ퓚볆솿횮잰,쫗쿈룹뻝(튻)럖컶뿲볜볙뚨짺닺몯쫽벼쫵뷸늽쫴폚쾣뿋쮹훐탔벼쫵Wald볬퇩랽램뛔(3)쪽살볬퇩맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤벴,ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽뗄믹놾탎쪽뿉킴캪Y=AFꛁ+ꛂ뗄볙짨,볬퇩뷡맻볻뇭1ꆣ(K,L),뛔쪱볤t쟳떼뿉뗃:뇭1ꆡ맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤뗄Wald볬퇩ꆡꆡꆤ9Fꆤ9Fꆤ9Fꆤ풭볙짨F춳볆솿P횵Y=+L+A9KK9L9Aꛁ+ꛂ=141160115짏쪽솽뇟춬돽틔Y뿉뗃:ꆤꆤꆤꆤꆡꆡ듓뇭1뗄볬퇩뷡맻뾴,P>0105뇭쏷퓚5%쿔ꆡꆡY9FKK9FLL9FAA=훸탔쮮욽짏늻쓜뻜뻸풭볙짨,벴죏캪컒맺뺭볃퓚Y9KYK++(1)9LYL9AYA1978-2004쓪볤맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤ꆣ틲뛸퓚쿂쏦뛔튪쇮ꛁ9FK(=)뇭쪾놾뗄닺돶떯탔9FL,ꛂ(=)9KY9LY쯘닺돶떯탔맀볆훐,볓틔맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤풼쫸,죏캪ꆤ놾닺돶떯탔뫍샍뚯닺돶떯탔뫍캪1ꆣ뛔놾튪쯘뇭쪾샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔9FAA,캪좫튪쯘짺닺싊9AYA닺돶떯탔맀볆뷡맻볻쿂쪽:ꆡꆡlog(Y/L)=-0188+01692log(K/L)(TFP)ꆣꆤꆤꆤꆤ(612433)(491833)ꆡꆡY=ꛁKA(2)YK+ꛂL9FA+L9AYAꆡꆡR2=0198ꆡꆡDW=1184쯷싥(So3]low[)뛔좫튪쯘짺닺싊ퟶ돶뾪뒴탔평짏쪽뗃돶놾뗄닺돶떯탔ꛁ=0169,샍뚯뗄퇐뺿ꆣ쯻믹폚튻룶볲떥뗄CꆪD짺닺몯쫽Y=닺돶떯탔캪ꛂ=0131ꆣAKꛁꛂL퓚맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤뗄볙짨쿂,샻폃쪱볤닎쫽램뿉,붫웤럖뷢뿉뗃:ꆤꆤꆤꆤ뗃떽탂뗄맀볆쪽:ꆡꆡYA=ꛁK+(3)YK+ꛂLLAꆡꆡln(Y/L)=-1159ꆡ+ꆡ01037t뾼싇떽맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤쫇튻쳵웕뇩볙짨,폚쫇뿉붫(-1211133)(811233)놾뗄닺돶떯탔ꛁ뫍샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔ꛂ헽퓲뮯뒦샭+0145ln(K/L):(ꆡꆡꛁꇤꛁꛂ619133)=ꛁ+ꛂ,ꆡꛂꇤ=ꛁ4)+ꛂ(ꆡꆡR2=0199ꆡꆡDW=11466
뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭ꆡ2006쓪뗚6웚ꆡ닐닮탲쇐뗄MA(1):ꛌt=0196ꛌt-1+ꛅt뿉붨솢뛠풪럇닎쫽믘맩쒣탍:(1417733)ꆡꆡYi=m(Xi)+ui,i=1,ꆭ,27뺭맽뛔닐닮탲쇐뗄LM볬퇩뫍붨솢MA쒣탍,쪽훐,m(xi)쫇캴횪몯쫽,ui쫇쯦믺컳닮쿮ꆣm짏쪽쿻돽쇋닐닮탲쇐쿠맘ꆣ룹뻝짏쪽,뿉뗃돶놾(x)뗄늻뇤뒰뿭뻖늿쿟탔맀볆캪ퟮ킡뮯ꆣ뗄닺돶떯탔ꛁ=0145,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔ꛂ=0155n,2춬쪱좫튪쯘짺닺싊퓶뎤싊쓪욽뻹캪ꆡꆡ01037ꆣꇆ[yi-m(x)-DTm(x)(Xi-x)]Kh(Xni-x)t=1(죽)럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀볆쪽훐,D9m(x)9mT(x)m(x)=,,K뇭쪾뫋몯쫽,뺭뗤볆솿뺭볃톧쒣탍쫗쿈룹뻝뺭볃샭싛뫍퇹놾9x19x2쫽뻝짨뚨쒣탍뗄몯쫽맘쾵,좻뫳맀볆몯쫽맘쾵훐뗄hn쫇뒰뿭,놾컄좡Epanechnikov뫋K2(u)=01752닎쫽늢볬퇩쯹짨뚨뗄맘쾵,떫쫇맘폚쒣탍벰닎쫽뗄(1-u)+(쪽훐뗄(ꆤ)+캪쇣뮯쯣ퟓ)ꆣ튻킩볙뚨퓚쿖쪵훐캴뇘돉솢ꆣ뿆늼ꆪ뗀룱삭쮹짺닺뻘헳뇭듯쪽캪:몯쫽뻍쫇튻샽ꆣ쯼볙뚨벼쫵뷸늽쫇훐탔뗄ꆢ벼쫵뷸ꆡꆡm^n(XT,hn)=e1(XT-1xWxXx)XTxWxY쪽훐T늽뛀솢폚튪쯘춶죫솿뇤뮯ꆢ튪쯘쳦듺떯탔캪1ꆢ뻟,e1=(1,0,ꆭ,0),Xx=(Xx,1,ꆭ,XTx,n),Xx,i폐튻듎웫듎탔벴맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤뗈,헢킩볙뚨퓚쿖쪵=TT(1,(Xi-x)),훐뫜쓑춬쪱돉솢ꆣ본폚뺭뗤볙짨쒣탍뗄뻖쿞탔,컒ꆡꆡWx=diag[Kh(Xn1-x),ꆭ,Kh(Xnn-쏇붫닉폃럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀볆살맀볆룄룯뾪럅틔살x)],Y=[Y1,ꆭ,YTn]ꆣ뗄놾닺돶떯탔뫍샍뚯닺돶떯탔ꆣ럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔룹뻝짏쪽,컒쏇닉폃좫맺헻쳥쫽뻝뛔1978ꆪ맀볆뗄뫃뒦뻍쫇퓚맀볆돶믘맩몯쫽m2004쓪놾뫍샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔뷸탐맀볆,평폚럇(x)뗄춬쪱,튲맀볆돶믘맩몯쫽뗄떼몯쫽mꇤ(x)ꆣ늢쟒쯼늢늻쫇닎쫽맀볆탨튪뗄퇹놾쫽뻝솿뷏듳,놾컄뛔놾뫍샍만뚨늻뇤뗄횵,뛸쫇쯦쪱볤뇤뮯ꆣ헢헽뫃럻뫏뺭볃뚯듦솿뷸탐죽듎퇹쳵닥횵랽램뒦샭ꋙ,붫쎿쓪쫽뻝톧뗄돋쫽럖컶뫍떯탔럖컶뗈탨튪ꆣ닥횵캪퓂뛈쫽뻝ꆣ뾼싇떽놾뫍샍뚯춶죫쫇솬탸뗄퓚럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀볆훐,맺쏱닺돶Y쫇놻퓶뎤맽돌,늢쟒럇닎쫽맀볆늻춬폚쿟탔믘맩맀볆,뷢쫍뇤솿,K,L쫇뷢쫍뇤솿,컒쏇폃쿲솿X=헢훖쫽뻝닥횵랽램쫇뿉틔뷓쫜뗄ꆣ맀볆뷡맻뺭헽퓲뮯뒦샭,볻춼1ꆣ[K,L]뇭쪾,룸뚨1978ꆪ2004쓪뗄퇹놾쫽뻝,ꆡꆡ퓚춼1훐,쿔쪾쇋룄룯뾪럅틔살놾뗄닺돶ퟮ뿬뗄쪱웚,20쫀볍90쓪듺틔뫳퓲쿂붵쯙뛈뇤떯탔퓚늻뛏쿂붵,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔퓚늻뛏짏짽ꆣ뗃뮺싽ꆣ욽뻹살쮵,1978ꆪ2004쓪놾뗄닺돶웤훐,1990쓪틔잰,놾뗄닺돶떯탔쫴폚쿂붵떯탔ꛁ=0156,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔ꛂ=0144;ꋙ평폚닥횵뗄볆쯣늻쫇놾컄쒿뗄,맊쪡싔쇋웤볆쯣랽램뫍맽돌,폐탋좤뗄뛁헟뿉닎볻짲폀뮶뗈(2001)뇠킴뗄ꆶ쪵폃쫽톧쫖닡ꆷꆣ7
ꆡ뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭ꆡ2006쓪뗚6웚1990ꆪ2004쓪놾뗄닺돶떯탔ꛁ=0154,샍뚯(뛾)쒣탍맀볆뗄닺돶떯탔ꛂ=0156ꆣ쿂쏦뇊헟샻폃쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍살럖컶컒맺튪쯘닺돶떯탔ꆣ뛾ꆢ믹폚쏦냥쫽뻝뗄럖컶쒣탍1:뛔1978ꆪ2004쓪좫맺ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽(튻)쒣탍짨뚨뷸탐맀볆ꆪꆪꆪ쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍:컒쏇붫닉폃쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍(paneldatamodeꆡꆡLog(Y)=-2182ꆡ+ꆡ01762Log(K)l)뛔1978ꆪ2004쓪좫맺ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽뷸탐맀볆(-913433)(5913233),웤훐룷쪡1978ꆪ2004쓪뗄놾듦솿쫽뻝살ퟔ맹쟬췺+01528Log(L)+u(i)뗈뗄맀볆ꆣ[5]쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍뗄뫃뒦쫇퇹놾솿듳,늢(1111233)쓜릻춬쪱랴펳퇐뺿뛔쿳퓚쪱볤뫍뷘쏦떥풪솽룶랽쿲ꆡꆡR2=0196ꆡꆡꆡOBS=778짏뗄뇤뮯맦싉벰늻춬쪱볤ꆢ늻춬떥풪뗄쳘탔ꆣ룃쒣쒣탍2:뛔1978ꆪ2004쓪뚫늿뗘쟸ퟜ솿짺닺몯탍뗄믹놾뷡릹캪쫽뷸탐맀볆ꆪꆪꆪ쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍::ꆡꆡY(ꆡꆡLog(Y)=-12132ꆡ+ꆡ11734Log(K)i,t)=ꛁ+u(i)+ꛂX(i,t)+ꛅ(i,t)ꆡꆡꆡi=1,ꆭ,N;t=1,ꆭ,T(-1013633)(2119933)쪽훐+01545Log(L)+u(i),ꛁ+u(i)캪뷘뻠쿮,ꛂ캪킱싊,i뇭쪾뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝,퓚놾컄훐캪31룶쪡ꆢ횱쾽쫐뫍ퟔ훎쟸,t뇭(1713433)쪾쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝,캪1978ꆪ2004쓪,퇹놾듯700뛠ꆡꆡR2=0192ꆡꆡꆡOBS=324룶ꆣ뷘뻠쿮훐뗄u(쒣탍3:뛔1978ꆪ2004쓪훐늿뗘쟸ퟜ솿짺닺i)뛈솿쇋룶쳥볤뗄닮틬,죧맻u(i)캪좷뚨쫽퓲돆캪만뚨펰쿬쒣탍;죴u(i)쫇튻룶몯쫽뗄맀볆ꆪꆪꆪ만뚨펰쿬쒣탍:쏨쫶뗚ꆡꆡLog(Y)=-1189+01699Log(K)i룶훷쳥맛닢횵뗄쯦믺죅뚯,늢쟒쪼훕놣돖늻뇤,퓲돆캪쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍;죴u(i)늻쯦룶쳥뛸룄(-1145)(318733)뇤퓲돆캪믬뫏믘맩쒣탍,헢룶쒣탍늢럇퇏룱틢틥짏+01343Log(L)+u(i)뗄쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍,뿉틔횱뷓샻폃OLS믘맩맀볆ꆣ(217833)뇊헟퓚쪹폃쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍쪱,쿈튪뷸탐쒣탍짨ꆡꆡR2=0198ꆡꆡꆡOBS=242뚨볬퇩틔뻶뚨쪹폃쓇훖탎쪽뗄쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍ꆣ뻟쳥쒣탍4:뛔1978ꆪ2004쓪컷늿뗘쟸ퟜ솿짺닺몯뗄볬퇩랽램쫇쫗쿈샻폃늼싞쪩-엠룊(Breusch쫽뗄맀볆ꆪꆪꆪ만뚨펰쿬쒣탍:andPagan)뗄삭룱샊죕돋쫽(LM)볬퇩,에뛏쫇톡ꆡꆡꆡꆡLog(Y)=-5123ꆡ+ꆡ01743Log(K)좡믬뫏믘맩쒣탍뮹쫇쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍;죴좷뚨쪹폃쏦(-519933)(1719533)냥쫽뻝쒣탍+01834Log(L)+u(i),퓙샻폃뫀쮹싼(Hausman)짨뚨볬퇩살에뛏쫇톡좡만뚨펰쿬쒣탍뮹쫇톡좡쯦믺펰쿬쒣(514633)탍ꆡꆡR2=0191ꆡꆡꆡOBS=245:뇭21978ꆪ2004쓪쏦냥쒣탍1ꆫ4볬퇩뷡맻샠뇰Breusch2PaganLM볬퇩Hausman짨뚨볬퇩좫맺볬퇩횵chi2(1)=2198152P=01000볬퇩횵chi2(1)=-8152P=-뚫늿뗘쟸볬퇩횵chi2(1)=793123P=01000볬퇩횵chi2(1)=-85158P=-훐늿뗘쟸볬퇩횵chi2(1)=1192196P=0100볬퇩횵chi2(1)=7125P=0100컷늿뗘쟸볬퇩횵chi2(1)=240189P=0100볬퇩횵chi2(1)=23144P=0100ꆡꆡ힢:늼싞쪩-엠룊LM볬퇩캪풭볙짨1:Var[u(i)]=0ꆣ뫀쮹싼짨뚨볬퇩캪풭볙짨2:쾵쫽뗄닮틬쫇럇쾵춳뗄ꆣP듳폚0105퓲뷓쫜풭볙짨,럱퓲뻜뻸풭볙짨ꆣ뷓쫜풭볙짨1틢캶ퟅ쒣탍캪믬뫏믘맩쒣탍,뷓쫜풭볙짨2틢캶ퟅ쒣탍캪쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍,춬쪱뻜뻸풭볙짨1뫍2틢캶ퟅ쒣탍캪만뚨펰쿬쒣탍ꆣ뛔뫀쮹싼짨뚨볬퇩컞램에뇰뗄쒣탍,닉좡쯦믺펰쿬쒣탍(쿂춬)ꆣ8
뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭ꆡ2006쓪뗚6웚ꆡꆡꆡ듓쒣탍1ꆫ4뗄볬퇩뷡맻뾴,돽쒣탍3췢,튪럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀볆쳥쿖쇋닺돶떯탔쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뗄쯘닺돶떯탔풶듳폚1,맊탫뺭헽퓲뮯뒦샭,뷡맻볻쟷쫆,뻝듋,놾컄뿉틔ퟷ뷷짷뗄볙뚨,럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟뇭3ꆣ탔맀볆돶튪쯘닺돶떯탔뷏럻뫏컒맺쪵볊,벴놾뗄뇭닺돶떯탔캪0156,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔캪0144ꆣ3ꆡ뺭헽퓲뮯뒦샭뫳뗄튪쯘닺돶떯탔뗘쟸K뗄쾵쫽L뗄쾵쫽ꆡꆡ(뛾)튪쯘춶죫릱쿗뛈뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊럖컶좫맺01590141퓚쟳돶튪쯘닺돶떯탔뫳,뻍뿉틔쟳돶튪쯘춶죫뚫늿01760124뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗뛈뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊ꆣ볆쯣릫쪽훐늿01670133캪:컷늿01470153ꆤꆤꆡꆡ뺭맽헽퓲뮯뒦샭뫳,컒맺뗃떽뗄튪쯘닺돶떯탔ꆡꆡK릱쿗뛈Y=(ꛁK)K/()Y캪ꆤꆤ:뻍좫맺헻쳥뛸퇔,놾뗄닺돶떯탔캪0159,샍뚯ꆡꆡL릱쿗뛈Y=(ꛂL)/()뗄닺돶떯탔캪0141;뻍뚫늿뗘쟸뛸퇔,놾뗄닺돶LY떯탔캪ꆤꆤꆤꆤ0176,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔캪0124;뻍훐늿뗘ꆡꆡTFP퓶뎤싊AY=-ꛁKꛂLK-쟸뛸퇔AYL,놾뗄닺돶떯탔캪0167,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔캪0133;뻍컷늿뗘쟸뛸퇔,놾뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꆤꆤꆡꆡYTFP릱쿗뛈A=()/()AY0147,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔캪0153ꆣ뚫늿뗘쟸뗄놾닺돶떯탔룟폚훐늿뗘쟸,훐늿뗘쟸폖룟폚컷늿룹뻝잰컄뛔튪쯘닺돶떯탔맀볆뷡맻,퓚CꆪD뗘쟸ꆣ뚫늿뗘쟸뗄샍뚯닺돶떯탔뗍폚훐늿뗘쟸짺닺몯쫽볙짨쿂,뿉틔볆쯣돶좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤,훐늿뗘쟸폖뗍폚컷늿뗘쟸ꆣ헢랴펳쇋뚫늿뗘쟸싊,볻뇭5ꆣ놾톸쯙믽샛,놾퓚뺭볃퓶뎤훐뗄릱쿗뛈톸쯙듓뇭5뗄럖컶뷡맻뾴,떱퓋폃럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟짏짽뗄쫂쪵ꆣ탔맀볆튪쯘닺돶떯탔뷡맻럖컶쪱,놾춶죫뗄릱쿗뛈욽뻹횵캪5417%,샍뚯춶죫뗄릱쿗뛈욽뻹횵죽ꆢ튪쯘닺돶떯탔맀볆뷡맻뇈뷏ꆢ캪819%,놾춶죫뗄릱쿗뛈풶룟폚샍뚯춶죫,헢럻뫏컒맺놾쿠뛔쾡좱,샍뚯쿠뛔맽쪣뗄쪵볊쟩튪쯘춶죫릱쿗뛈뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊럖컶뿶ꆣ떱짨뚨닺돶떯탔쯦쪱볤뇤뚯쪱,TFP쓪뻹퓶뎤(튻)룷훖랽램뗄맀볆뷡맻뇈뷏싊캪319%,TFP뗄쓪뻹릱쿗뛈캪3614%;뛸떱짨뇭4ꆡ룷훖랽램맀볆돶뗄튪쯘닺돶떯탔뇈뷏뚨닺돶떯탔늻쯦쪱볤뇤뚯쪱,TFP쓪뻹퓶뎤싊튲캪늻춬볆쯣랽램뇈뷏놾닺돶떯탔샍뚯닺돶떯탔318%,쯼뗄릱쿗뛈캪3514%;뛸잰컄컒쏇룹뻝쪱볤믹폚ퟜ솿쫽뻝뗄C-닎쫽램맀볆뗄TFP퓶뎤싊캪317%ꆣ평듋뿉볻,컒D짺닺몯쫽맀볆01690131맺룄룯뾪럅틔살TFP퓶뎤싊퓚317%ꆫ319%횮믹폚ퟜ솿쫽뻝뗄쪱볤닎쫽맀볆01450155볤ꆣ믹폚ퟜ솿쫽뻝뗄럇뷸튻늽럖컶,놾춶죫뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗뛈닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀볆01560144퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳돊훰늽짏짽쟷쫆,헢쳥쿖쇋(욽뻹횵)컒맺춶쟽뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쳘헷ꆣTFP뗄퓶뎤싊믹폚쏦냥쫽뻝뗄맀ퟔ20쫀볍90쓪듺틔뫳훰붥붵뗍,쯼뛔뺭볃퓶뎤볆01590141뗄릱쿗뛈튲쯦횮쿂붵ꆣ뛔훐맺TFP짺닺싊쏷쿔ꆡꆡ쇐돶짏컄뛔튪쯘닺돶떯탔뗄룷훖맀쯣뷡맻(볻쿂붵뗄풭틲,틑폐늻짙뺭볃톧헟뷸탐짮죫럖컶,뇭4),컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽,믹폚ퟜ솿쫽뻝뗄쪱볤닎쫽맀퓚듋늻퓙ힸ쫶ꆣ[6]볆놾닺돶떯탔뷏뗍,믹폚ퟜ솿쫽뻝뗄럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀볆뫍믹폚쏦냥쫽뻝뗄맀볆뷡맻뇈뷏뷓뷼,뛸9
ꆡ뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭ꆡ2006쓪뗚6웚뇭5룄룯뾪럅틔살튪쯘춶죫뗄릱쿗뛈뫍좫튪쯘퓶뎤싊쿮쒿닺돶떯탔쯦쪱볤뇤뚯(럇닎쫽뻖늿쿟탔맀볆뷡맻닺돶떯탔늻쯦쪱볤뇤뚯)(a=0156,b=0144)쪱볤K뗄릱쿗뛈L뗄릱쿗뛈TFP퓶뎤싊TFP뗄릱쿗TFP퓶뎤싊TFP뗄릱쿗197901670011150101601216010190124819800150001171010260132901027013421981015750125601009011690100901178198201326011650104601509010470151319830135501098010600154801060015541984013160110701088015770108801581198501449011120105901439010600144319860162601140010210123301021012351987014670111101049014210104901421198801463011150104801422010470142019891117501199-01015-01374-01016-0138519901104521009-01078-21054-01077-2103219910142401056010480152001047015131992011200103201120018480112001846199301328010330108601638010850163219940158401035010480138101046013661995016100103901037013510103501333199601575010620103501363010330134519970144801066010430148601042014721998016280106901024013030102201281199901666010700101901264010170124020000178401056010130116001010011282001017200108101015011990101301169200201941010570100001002-01003-0104120030174001047010200121301017011792004018140104301014011430101001102욽뻹횵ꋙ015470108901039013640103801354ꆡꆡ볆쯣ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽뫍튪쯘닺돶떯탔뗄랽램횻쓜쫇뇈쯄ꆢ뷡ꆡ폯뷏듖닚뗄,ퟮ뫃뗄맀볆떱좻쫇듳퇹놾쟩뿶쿂뛔캢맛뺭볃톧뷧뛔훐맺튪쯘닺돶떯탔ꆢ튪쯘춶죫뛔뺭뺭볃훷쳥뗄맀볆ꆣ떫쫇캢맛맀볆폖늻춬폚뫪맛럖볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗뛈ꆢTFP퓶뎤싊뗈튻쾵쇐컊쳢뗄럖컶컶,평폚췢늿탔뗄풭틲,듓헢솽룶뷇뛈뗃떽뗄튪쯘닺튻횱훚쮵럗,평듋짵훁틽짪돶뛔훐맺뺭볃룄룯벨킧뫍뿉돖탸탔뗄헹뇧ꆣ[7]놾컄컞틢뷩죫헢킩쳖싛돶떯탔폖캴뇘튻훂ꆣ틲듋,듓쒿잰살쮵,뛔뺭볃ퟜ쳥,횻쫇쿫듓쪵횤뷇뛈횸돶,평폚닺돶뷡릹뗄늻춬ꆢ튪쯘?뷸탐튪쯘닺돶떯탔럖컶믲탭웤훷튪틢틥늻쫇튪랢쿖뢳뗄닮틬ꆢ뺭볃랢햹뷗뛎뗄뇤뮯뗈틲쯘뗄펰쿬뻸뛔틢틥짏뗄횵,죎뫎,뛸쫇튪랢쿖헢킩횵뗄쿠뛔틢틥짏ꋙ짏쫶욽뻹횵늻냼삨1989쓪뫍1990쓪,헢쫇틲캪듓뇭6훐쇐돶뗄쫽뻝럖컶,헢솽쓪놾뗄릱쿗뛈뎬맽1,뛸좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄릱쿗뛈캪뢺횵,헢캥랴뺭볃톧뎣쪶ꆣ럖컶컒맺뺭볃쪵볊,헢솽쓪GDP퓶뎤싊럖뇰캪411%뫍318%,쫴폚룄룯뾪럅샺쪷틔살ퟮ뗍뗣,뛸놾듦솿죔튻죧볈췹놣돖톸쯙퓶뎤,뛔헢솽쓪볆쯣돶뗄놾릱쿗뛈뫍TFP릱쿗뛈랴뎣쟩뿶,놾컄죏캪뿉쓜쫇닢쯣컳닮쯹훂ꆣ10
뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭ꆡ2006쓪뗚6웚ꆡ뗄뇤뚯쟩뿶,뻍쿱놾컄뛔튪쯘닺돶떯탔쪱볤뇤뮯뫍캪튻룶늻뇤횵럖컶,놾뗄닺돶떯탔뿉짨캪0154,뗘쟸뇤뮯뗄퇐뺿ꆣ룼뺫쾸뗄퇐뺿쫇뛔늻춬탐튵뷸탐샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔뿉짨캪0146;죧맻붫튪쯘닺돶떯탔럖컶,떫쫇삧쓑횮뒦퓚폚튻냣횻폐좫맺틢틥짏뗄탐뾴ퟷ쫇쯦쪱볤뇤뚯뗄솿,퓲놾뗄닺돶떯탔돊늻뛏튵쫽뻝,쟸폲탐튵쫽뻝뷏쓑믱좡,퇹놾죔쫇맽짙,늻쿂붵쟷쫆,뛸샍뚯닺돶떯탔돊늻뛏짏짽쟷쫆,헢뿉쓜맽헢헽쫇놾컄폐듽얬솦뗄랽쿲ꆣ랴펳쇋뺭볃훐뗄놾짮뮯맽돌;내뗘쟸평뚫늿쿲훐놾컄룹뻝뛠룶뷇뛈뗄쪵횤럖컶,죏캪:죧맻붫늿떽컷늿업쇐,놾닺돶떯탔훰붥붵뗍,뛸샍뚯닺돶1978쓪틔살튪쯘닺돶떯탔ퟷ캪튻룶늻뇤횵럖컶,떯탔훰붥짽룟ꆣ퓚짺닺몯쫽쫴폚CꆪD탎쪽쟩뿶놾뗄닺돶떯탔뿉짨캪0156,샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔뿉짨캪쿂,뿉틔췆쯣컒맺룄룯뾪럅틔살TFP퓶뎤싊퓚0144;죧맻붫짏룶쫀볍90쓪듺틔살튪쯘닺돶떯탔ퟷ317%ꆫ319%횮볤ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗[1]쫀뷧틸탐훐맺뺭볃뾼달췅1훐맺:뎤웚랢햹뗄컊쳢뫍랽낸(뢽볾컥)[M]1놱뺩:훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧,19871[2]헅뻼삩1ꆰ웟컥ꆱ웚볤뺭볃킧틦뗄ퟛ뫏럖컶[J]1뺭볃퇐뺿,1991,(4).[3][J]1ReviewofEconomicsandStatis2tics,1957,(39).[4]헅뻼,헂풪.퓙싛훐맺놾듦솿뗄맀볆랽램[J]1뺭볃퇐뺿,2003,(7)1[5]맹쟬췺,싀뇹퇳1쮰쫕퓶뎤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뢺쏦돥믷[J]1뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭,2004,(8)1[6]뫺낰룖,횣뺩몣1훐맺좫튪쯘짺닺싊캪뫎쏷쿔쿂붵[J]1탂뮪컄햪,2004,(11)1[7]틗룙,랮룙,샮퇒1맘폚훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤폫좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄샭싛쮼뾼[J]1뺭볃퇐뺿,2003,(8)1(퓰죎뇠벭:뢶ꆡ쏴)ESTIMATINGTHEOUTPUTELASTICITYOFFACTORSINCHINAZHAOZhi2yun1,LIUXiao2lu2,LUBing2yang2(11ChinaResearchCenterofScientificTechnologicalInformation,Beijing100038,China;21SchoolofFinance,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872,China)Abstract:Outputelasticityoffactorsareveryimportantforanalyzingtheperformance,characteris2tics,andsustainabilityofeconomicgrowth1TheestimationofoutputelasticityoffactorsinChinasincere2formfrom1978to2004is:theaverageoutputelasticityofcapitalis0156,thatoflaboris0144,andtheoutputelasticityofcapitalisdecreasing,whilethatoflaborincreasing;outputelasticityofcapitalineast2ernareasishigherthanthatinmiddleareas,whichishigherthanthatinwesternareas;theaverageannualgrowthrateoftotalfactorproductivityisbetween317%and319%1Keywords:outputelasticityoffactors;productionfunction;paneldatamodel;non2parameteresti2mate11
