国际石油价格波动对哈萨斯坦经济的国际贸易影响研究
本文是一篇国际贸易论文，本研究表明：国际石油价格的波动对于哈萨克
斯坦的进出口贸易总值的波动具有显著的正相关影响。
1. Introduction
Research Background
For a long time, Kazakhstan's national economic structure has
been relatively after the road to industrialization
of the "oil economy", under the single economicstructure of
Kazakhstan's economy has greater instability. Under the category
of "oileconomy", Kazakhstan's "oil diplomacy", "oil tax", "oil
export-oriented economy" and "oilrelated industry" are the most
notable themes.
However, in recent years, especially since the subprime
mortgage crisis of 2008, thevolatility of international oil
prices has greatly influenced the decline of real
economicdemand, the complexity of the international political
developments, and regional oil uncertainty of the
economy of Kazakhstan, which relies heavily on the oil economy,
hasaroused domestic circles to reconsider "the economic
structure multiplication".
Due to the fact that oil stability safeguards the sustainable
development of the nationaleconomy, the supply shortage caused
by the economic impact is huge. In the first oil crisis inUnited
States in 1973, the European economy took a hard hit, and
inflation andunemployment soared. In 1978, the second oil crisis
made European and American countrieseconomic growth have an
overall slow-down, which even resulted in a negative
growthsituation. As oil has a foundational, global and critical
impact on the national economy, itsprice volatility also has a
significant impact on the downstream industrial chain of
economicstability.
The international oil price has seen dramatic fluctuations; the
rise or fall of amplitude in ashort period of time are far
beyond the expected, and the international oil price is
verysensitive. In addition to supply and demand changes causing
the international oil pricevolatility, the geopolitical
situation is also an important factor affecting the
international oilprice volatility.
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Research Significance and Value
1. To find out exactly what impact external international oil
prices will have onKazakhstan's national economy;
2. To provide direct knowledge and experience for the
industrialization of Kazakhstan, thetransformation and upgrading
of the oil economy, and structural adjustment;
3. To not only cover the traditional macroeconomic variables
(. international oil pricechanges and GDP growth, the
adjustment of the major industrial structures, import andexport
trade), but also to explain changes in international oil price
movements andinterest rates, provide an in-depth analysis of
exchange rates, and to establish of acomprehensive range of
analysis frameworks, expanding the theoretical study of theouter
edge.
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2. Literature Review
Literature Review on The Impact of International Oil Price
Fluctuations on theEconomy
Major swings in the price of oil draw a lot of attention among
policymakers, academics,and practitioners. A common theme in the
academic literature and in the financial press is thatthese
swings originate from a variety of sources, such as changes in
global demand, supplydisruptions and precautionary motives.
Mainstream Western academic circles have focused ona supply-
demand analysis when studying the impact of international oil
price fluctuations onthe macro-economy. The main points of focus
of the research are the impact of oil pricevolatility on
inflation, the impact of oil price volatility on GDP, the role
of monetary policyafter the impact of oil price, various elastic
relations of oil prices, the asymmetry of theimpact of oil price
fluctuations on the economy, the impact of oil price
fluctuations on thestock market, and the impact of macroeconomic
differences.
Some well-known scholars such as Hamilton (2015) and Baumeister
(2015) take theimpact of international oil price volatility on
GDP as the main analytical framework. Theyresearch areas
including econometrics, business cycles, monetary policy, etc.
In Hamilton’swork “Structural Interpretation of Vector
Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification:Revisiting the
Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks”, coauthored with
ChristianeBaumeister (2015), traditional approaches to
structural interpretation of vectorautoregressions can be viewed
as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very
strong prior beliefs about certain aspects of the model. These
traditional methods can be generalizedwith a less restrictive
Bayesian formulation that allows the researcher to
summarizeuncertainty coming not just from the data but also
uncertainty about the model itself. Thisapproach to revisit the
role of shocks to oil supply and demand and conclude that oil
priceincreases that result from supply shocks lead to a
reduction in economic activity after asignificant lag, whereas
price increases that result from increases in oil consumption
demanddo not have a significant effect on economic activity.
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Literature review of Transmission Mechanisms of
International Oil PriceFluctuation and their Macroeconomic
Impact
As an externality of the economic system, the international oil
price cannot affect acountry or a specific community macro-
economically without a certain "transmissionmechanism". This
research is still a new type of research field in academia, and
scholars havenot given enough attention to this topic. Based on
a certain amount of empirical quantitativeanalysis and based on
China's macro-economy, Lu Xiao (2015) thinks that the major
impactof international oil price fluctuation on the macro-
economy is through the aggregatetransmission mechanism, the
supply and demand transmission mechanism, the interest
rate Conduction mechanism, and the exchange rate conduction
mechanism. In addition, academicsand scholars discussed and
studied mechanisms of transmission from different
perspectives,such as "the transmission mechanism of supply or
demand" and "the transmission mechanismof political events". Of
course, in addition to these relatively macroeconomic
perspectives,some scholars have also conducted analyses from the
microeconomic perspective. Mililani(2009) argues that the micro-
wage rigidity, the relatively low oil price and the
consumer'ssubjective expectations are the micro-transmission
mechanisms through which oil pricefluctuations affect the
economy. Hu Guanghui (2013), with his doctoral
dissertation,systematically studied the "basic theory" and
"transmission mechanism" of international oilprice fluctuations
on China's economic development, which is of great importance
inenlightening us to strengthen the theoretical approach in
researching transmissionmechanisms.
In summary, in the open international trade context, research
shows that the fluctuationsin international oil prices have a
major impact on the macroeconomics of a given communitythrough
the supply and demand mechanism, the interest rate mechanism and
the exchangerate mechanism.
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3. International Oil Price Fluctuation and Economic Development
in Kazakhstan..............10
International Oil Price Fluctuation.............10
Kazakhstan actual economic condition.................10
4. Empirical research.................15
Vector autoregressive model (VAR model)
settings..............15
Data sources and research hypotheses..................15
5. The Current Situation of International Oil Price and
Kazakhstan Economy.................25
The drop in international oil prices caused a huge economic
shake in Kazakhstan.................25
The government of Kazakhstan actively sought to cope with
the difficulties of fallinginternational oil
prices..................25
5. The Current Situation of International Oil Price and
Kazakhstan Economy
The drop in international oil prices caused a huge economic
shake in Kazakhstan
Because Kazakhstan is overly dependent on the international
energy and raw materialsmarkets, its economic autonomy is low,
and the fluctuations of the international economy,especially the
international oil prices, have a tremendous impact on
Kazakhstan's fragile oiland gas-based economic development
strategy. The international oil prices range from 34
a barrel in the year 2000, to a peak of . dollars a
barrel in July 2007. Thisbrought a huge "high oil price benefit"
to oil-exporting countries such as Kazakhstan, createda large
amount of foreign exchange earnings, and boosted their GDP
growth. From 1999 to2007, Kazakhstan's GDP growth remained at
around 9%. In the international financial crisisof 2008, the
international oil price fell to 49 . dollars per barrel. The
oil bubble burst andhit the economy of Kazakhstan. Its GDP
growth dropped rapidly from 9% in 2007, to % in2008, and %
in 2009. Since the second half of 2014, the international crude
oil priceplunged from a high of 110 . dollars per barrel to
28 . dollars a barrel in 2016, a dropof 75% in total.
Influenced by this most recent international oil price plunge
and the Russianeconomic crisis, Kazakhstan's economy has
suffered heavy losses. According to Dossanyev,Kazakhstan's
minister of national economy, the increase in Kazakhstan's gross
domesticproduct has been adversely affected in 2016 due to oil
production being reduced from originalplans for the year by
million tons. Growth of Kazakhstan's real GDP in 2016 was
%,down 70% from 4%. In 2015 a decrease of 72% from %. At
the same time, as a result ofthe fall in oil prices, which
directly led to a 30-40% decrease in Kazakhstan's
foreigninvestment compared to the same period in 2016, 70% was
significantly reduced due to asignificant reduction in
investment in the oil and gas and mining sectors.
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6. Research conclusions
Main conclusion
reference(omitted)
