ꆡꆡ뗚5뻭뗚6웚톧ꆡ놨2008쓪11퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맜ꆡ샭ꆡCꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟싔퇐뺿ퟛ쫶햲컄뷜ꆡ짛ꆡ풭(뮪훐뿆벼듳톧맜샭톧풺)ꆡꆡ햪튪:평폚솬탸뺺볛붻틗믺훆뗄맣랺펦폃뫍붻틗맽돌뗄쯦믺탔,웤붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿튻횱쫇죋쏇맘힢뗄죈뗣뫍쓑뗣컊쳢,뺭샺쇋듓볲떥떽뢴퓓ꆢ듓췑샫쿖쪵떽훰붥쳹뷼쿖쪵뗄맽돌ꆣ듓늩?싛뫍뺭볃톧뗄쫓뷇,냑솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿럖캪늩?럖컶톧엉ꆢ쪵퇩뺭볃톧엉뫍볆쯣뺭볃톧엉3훖샭싛,쾵춳닻쫶쇋쎿룶톧엉뗄퇐뺿쳘뗣뫍훷튪돉맻,늢횸돶쇋뷱뫳뗄퇐뺿랽쿲ꆣ맘볼듊:솬탸뺺볛;붻틗닟싔;늩?럖컶;쪵퇩뺭볃톧;볆쯣뺭볃톧훐춼럖샠뫅:C93ꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:16722884X(2008)0620921207ReviewonTradingStrategyofContinuousDoubleAuctionZHANWenjieꆡSHAOYuan(HuazhongUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Wuhan,China)Abstract:Fortheextensiveapplicationandthestochastictransactionprocessofthecontinuousdoubleauction(CDA)market,,fromsim2plicitytocomplexity,,,theschoolofexperimentaleconomics,,:continuousdoubleauction;tradingstrategy;gametheoryanalysis;experimentale2conomics;agent2basedcomputationaleconomicsꆡꆡ내헕싲싴쮫랽붻틗죋쫽뗄늻춬,엄싴뿉틔맺뗄막욱횤좯뗈놾쫐뎡웕뇩닉폃ꆣ샽죧,컒맺럖캪떥쿲엄싴뫍쮫쿲엄싴ꆣ뒫춳뗄펢쪽엄싴ꆢ뫉짏몣ꆢ짮?횤좯붻틗쯹,퓚뾪엌뷗뛎닉좡쇋벯뫏쪽엄싴ꆢ럢뇪뗚튻볛룱뫍럢뇪뗚뛾볛룱쫴폚떥뺺볛믺훆,뾪엌뫳뗄붻틗믺훆캪솬탸뺺볛ꆣ솬탸쿲엄싴뗄랶돫,틲캪헢킩엄싴훐훁짙폐튻랽뗄뺺볛쫐뎡뗄퓋탐쳘뗣쫇,횻튪쫐뎡훐뗄쿖쪱싲붻틗죋쫽캪ꆰ1ꆱ,룃랽헆컕ퟅ쫐뎡훐뗄쾡좱랽놨볛늻뗍폚쿖쪱싴랽놨볛,붻틗솢뿌랢짺,돉풴,돆캪ꆰ풴폅쫆랽ꆱ;뛸ퟮ훕뗄돉붻볛룱쫇평붻볛룱평싲랽놨볛뫍싴랽놨볛릲춬뻶뚨ꆣ뛸퓚죋쫽뛠뗄튻랽릲춬뻶뚨뗄,돆캪ꆰ탅쾢폅쫆랽ꆱꆣ벯뫏뺺볛쫐뎡훐,횻폐싲싴쮫랽뗄붻틗횸쇮샛뛸쮫쿲엄싴쫐뎡쫇ꆰ뛠뛔뛠ꆱ뗄뷡릹,벴싲랽뫍믽떽쒳룶만뚨뗄붻틗쪱뿌,닅좷뚨튻룶춳튻뗄ꆢ싴랽뚼늻횹튻룶,룃쫐뎡훐싲싴쮫랽뗄맘쾵튲쪹돉붻솿ퟮ듳뗄횴탐볛룱ꆣ듓떥쿲엄싴훐뗄ꆰ탅쾢폅쫆랽ꆱ믲ꆰ풴폅쫆솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄싲싴쮫랽뚼쏦쇙럇뎣뢴랽ꆱ,뇤캪튻훖욽뗈뗄릩룸뫍탨쟳맘쾵ꆣ퓓뗄놨볛뻶닟맽돌,훷튪뇭쿖캪틔쿂2룶랽쏦:솬탸뺺볛(튲돆솬탸쮫쿲엄싴,continuousꋙ솬탸뺺볛붻틗닟싔뗄톡퓱뇈떥쿲엄싴뢴퓓ꆣdoubleauction,CDA)뫍벯뫏뺺볛(callmarket,샽죧,솬탸뺺볛뗄싲랽퓚톡퓱놨볛믲뷓쫜싴랽CM)쫇ퟮ뎣볻뗄2훖쮫쿲엄싴탎쪽,쒿잰놻룷놨볛뗄쪱뫲,늻뷶튪뾼싇웤쯻싲랽뿉쓜뗄놨볛,쫕룥죕웚:2007209213믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿(70301013)ꆤ921ꆤ
맜샭톧놨뗚5뻭뗚6웚2008쓪11퓂뮹튪뾼싇웤쯻싴랽뿉쓜뗄놨볛;춬퇹,싴랽퓚톡탎ꆣ싴랽쳡릩짌욷뗄돉놾쫇c,싲랽뛔룃짌욷뗄퓱놨볛믲뷓쫜싲랽놨볛뗄쪱뫲,늻뷶튪뾼싇웤맀볛쫇vꆣ싴랽뗄놨볛ps쫇c뗄몯쫽,벴ps(c);쯻싴랽뿉쓜뗄놨볛,뮹튪뾼싇웤쯻싲랽뿉쓜뗄싲랽뗄놨볛pb쫇v뗄몯쫽,벴pb(v)ꆣ떱싲랽놨놨볛ꆣ볙짨냑솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄쯹폐싲랽돆캪볛늻뗍폚싴랽놨볛쪱,싲싴쮫랽랢짺붻틗,벴pbꆰ싲랽ퟩꆱ,쯹폐싴랽돆캪ꆰ싴랽ퟩꆱ,퓚붻틗닟싔ꇝps;돉붻볛룱p=(pb+ps)ö2ꆣ죧맻랢짺붻뗄톡퓱맽돌훐,늻뷶튪뾼싇싲랽(믲싴랽)쓚늿틗,싴랽뗄쫕틦캪(p-c),싲랽뗄쫕틦캪(v-횮볤뗄뺺헹(돆캪ꆰퟩ쓚뺺헹ꆱ),뮹튪뾼싇싲랽p);죧맻늻랢짺붻틗,싲싴쮫랽뗄쫕틦뻹캪0ꆣퟩ뫍싴랽ퟩ횮볤뗄뺺헹(돆캪ꆰퟩ볤뺺헹ꆱ),뛸룃늩?훐,싴랽뫍싲랽뗄BNE놨볛닟싔죧떥쿲엄싴쫐뎡훐뷶뾼싇ퟩ쓚뺺헹,늻듦퓚ퟩ볤쿂:뺺헹뗄컊쳢ꆣꋚ솬탸뺺볛붻틗닟싔뇈벯뫏뺺볛싴랽뗄BNE닟싔3ps(c)싺ퟣ룼뻟폐뚯첬탔뫍쯦믺탔ꆣ샽죧,퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡mps+E[pb(v)ûpb(v)ꇝps]axꇁ훐p2s,죧맻튻룶싴랽쿈룸돶놨볛,쯹폐싲랽뚼믡뾼싇쫇럱뷓쫜룃놨볛:톡퓱뷓쫜룃놨볛,믡늻믡폐Prob[pb(v)]ꇝps,(1)뇰뗄싴랽룸돶룼뗍뗄놨볛쓘?톡퓱뗈튻뗈,믲믘쪽훐,E[pb(v)ûpb(v)ꇝps]쫇퓚싴랽놨볛늻룟펦튻룶룼뗍뗄싲랽놨볛,볛룱뿉쓜쿂붵;죧맻볛폚싲랽놨볛쳵볾쿂,싴랽풤웚뗄싲랽놨볛;룱헦뗄쿂붵쇋,웤쯻싲랽폖뿉쓜뷩죫,쪹볛룱훘Prob[pb(v)ꇝps]쫇싴랽놨볛늻룟폚싲랽놨볛탂짏짽ꆣ춬샭,죧맻튻룶싲랽쿈룸돶튻룶놨볛,쳵볾돶쿖뗄룅싊ꆣ쯹폐싴랽뚼믡뾼싇쫇럱뷓쫜룃놨볛:톡퓱뷓쫜춬샭,싲랽뗄BNE닟싔3pb(v)싺ퟣ룃놨볛,믡늻믡폐뇰뗄싲랽룸돶룼룟뗄놨볛쓘?mpb+E[ps(v)ûpb(v)ꇝps(c)]axv-ꇁ톡퓱뗈튻뗈pb2,믲믘펦튻룶룼룟뗄싴랽놨볛,볛룱뿉쓜짏짽;죧맻볛룱헦뗄짏짽쇋,웤쯻싴랽폖뿉Prob[pbꇝps(c)],(2)쓜뷩죫쪽훐,E[ps(c)ûpbꇝps(c)]쫇퓚싲랽놨볛늻뗍,쪹볛룱훘탂쿂붵ꆣ늻쓑뾴돶,솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟싔퇐뺿폚싴랽놨볛쳵볾쿂,싲랽풤웚뗄싴랽놨볛;뻟폐뢴퓓탔ꆢ뚯첬탔뫍쯦믺탔뗈쳘뗣,쪹뗃룃쿮Prob[pbꇝps(c)]쫇싲랽놨볛늻뗍폚싴랽놨볛퇐뺿뻟폐튻뚨뗄쓑뛈ꆣ떫쫇,평폚룃붻틗믺훆펦쳵볾돶쿖뗄룅싊ꆣ폃뫜맣랺,폈웤쫇퓚막욱쫐뎡ꆢ뗧ퟓ짌컱훐CHATTERJEE뗈\[5\]룸돶쇋헢훖볲뮯쳵볾,맊튲쫇퇐뺿뗄죈뗣컊쳢ꆣ뇊헟듓늩?싛뫍뺭볃톧쿂뗄ꆰ튻볛뻹뫢ꆱ닟싔(벴퓚룸뚨볛룱쮮욽짏뗄뗄쫓뷇ꋙ,냑솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿럖뻹뫢)뫍붻틗쟸폲,틔벰닉폃쿟탔닟싔쪱뗄BNE캪늩?럖컶톧엉ꆢ쪵퇩뺭볃톧엉뫍볆쯣뺭볃톧뫍붻틗쟸폲;춬쪱,뮹랢쿖쿟탔닟싔뻹뫢폅폚엉3훖샭싛ꆰ튻볛뻹뫢ꆱ\[6,7ꆣ\]MYERSON뗈\[8\]뷸튻늽횤쏷:,쾵춳닻쫶쇋쎿훖샭싛뗄쳘뗣뫍퇐뺿돉맻,ퟮ뫳횸돶쇋뷱뫳뗄훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲ꆣ퓚맀볛뫍돉놾캪뇪ힼ럖늼뗄잰쳡쿂,퓚헢훖볲뮯솬탸뺺볛뗄뺲첬놴튶쮹늩?훐,쿟탔닟싔뻹1ꆡ늩?럖컶톧엉뫢쓜릻닺짺뇈웤쯻죎뫎BNE룼룟뗄웚췻뗃틦ꆣFR듋뫳뗄퇐뺿,퇘ퟅ쯻쏇뗄쮼슷,뗃돶쇋룷훖IEDMAN\[1\]퓚1956쓪랢뇭쇋뗚1욪맘폚떥쿲엄싴샭싛뗄싛컄ꆣVICKREY\[2\]폚1961볲뮯쳵볾쿂뗄솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뻹뫢붻틗닟싔ꆣ쳡돶뗄믹ힼ뗣쒣탍뫍쫕죫뗈볛풭샭돉캪쇋엄싴FRIEDMAN\[9\퓚]1991쓪냑솬탸뺺볛붻틗맽돌샭싛퇐뺿뗄믹쪯ꆣ떥쿲엄싴퇐뺿좡뗃쇋튻쾵쇐볲뮯캪튻룶늮좨뗂늩?맽돌,벴쫐뎡훐쯹폐붻훘튪뗄퇐뺿돉맻,MCAFEE뗈\[3\뛔]듋뷸탐쇋쾵틗랽뚼뛀솢톡퓱놨볛,늢쟒뫶싔놨볛뛔웤쯻붻춳ퟜ뷡ꆣ틔짏돉맻뗄좡뗃,폫늩?샭싛뗄랢햹쏜틗랽뗄펰쿬,틔벰놨볛늻쓜놻탞룄,쯻뗃돶뷡늻뿉럖싛:붻틗쮫랽듦퓚ퟮ폅붻틗닟싔,늢쟒뿉틔닺짺,죋쏇뫜ퟔ좻뗘솪쿫떽폃늩?샭싛살퇐뺿쮫쿲엄싴컊쳢ꆣ뷓뷼엁샛췑ퟮ폅뗄쫐뎡킧싊ꆣMCAFEE\[10\퓲]퇐퓚V뺿쇋폐m룶싲랽뫍m룶싴랽뗄럢뇪뗚뛾볛룱솬ICKREY뫍HARSANY\[4\I늻]췪좫탅쾢쿂뗄놴튶쮹쓉쪲뻹뫢(bayesiannashequilib탸뺺볛,쯻볙뚨룃쫐뎡훐뗄쎿룶붻틗헟ퟮ뛠횻ri2um쓜릺싲믲돶쫛1볾짌욷,횤쏷쇋룃볲뮯쫐뎡훐,,BNE)뗄믹뒡짏,CHATTERJEE뗈\[5\]퓚1983쓪쫗듎냑BNE퓋폃폚솬탸뺺볛뗄뻹뫢붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿횮훐ꆣ캪쇋볲뮯럖컶,쯻쏇뾼싇쇋ꋙ늩?싛폫맅뗤뺭볃톧뚼쫇붨솢퓚ꆰ췪좫샭탔ꆱ볙짨믹뒡횻폐짏뗄,뚼쫇붨솢퓚VonNeumann뫍Morgenstern뗄킧폃릫샭쳥쾵1룶싲랽뫍1룶싴랽ꆢ1볾짌욷뗄볲떥쟩짏뗄ꆣꆤ922ꆤ
솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟싔퇐뺿ퟛ쫶ꆪꆪ햲컄뷜ꆡ짛ꆡ풭싲랽뫍싴랽뗄폅쫆붻틗닟싔뻍쫇놨돶룷ퟔ헦쪵뗄맀볛뫍돉놾ꆣ2ꆡ쪵퇩뺭볃톧엉SATTERTHWAITE뗈\[11\]냑CHATTERJEE뗈\[5\뗄]뷡싛췆맣떽m룶싲랽뫍폃쪵퇩뗄랽램퇐뺿솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟m룶싴랽뗄쟩탎,쯻쏇랢쿖:쯦ퟅ싲싴쮫랽죋쫽싔컊쳢,쫇믹폚틔쿂2룶풭틲:ꋙ쒿잰뛔폚죋샠뗄퓶볓,싲싴쮫랽뗄놨볛붫풽살풽뷓뷼헦쪵놨뗄ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱ탐캪훁뷱컞램뷸탐ힼ좷뗄쫽톧쏨볛,쫐뎡킧싊훰붥짏짽ꆣ쫶,ꆰ탐캪늩?싛ꆱ뗄쳡돶쫇붨솢퓚쪵퇩퇐뺿뗄춨맽틔짏럖컶뿉틔뾴돶,늩?럖컶톧엉폐2믹뒡짏뗄,쪵퇩뺭볃톧뗄돶쿖뫍랢햹,쪹뺭볃톧룶릲춬쳘뗣:ꋙ늩?럖컶톧엉쫇붨솢퓚ꆰ췪좫샭볒뿉틔퓚쪵퇩쫒훐퇐뺿죋샠뗄뺭볃탐캪\[13ꆣ\]ꋚ탔ꆱ뗄볙짨믹뒡짏,틀뻝퇏쏜뗄쫽톧췆샭뛸붨솢쿖폐뗄샭싛뫍랽램뮹늻쓜뛔솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻웰살뗄퇝틯쪽싟벭쳥쾵ꆣ쯹캽ꆰ췪좫샭탔ꆱ뇘탫틗맽돌뷸탐ힼ좷뗄쫽톧쏨쫶,횻폐쪵퇩닅뿉틔싺ퟣ2룶볙짨쳵볾:튻쫇뺭볃믮뚯훐뗄쎿룶뺭쪹컒쏇퓚늻볲뮯쫐뎡맦퓲잰쳡쿂,퇐뺿붻틗닟볃룶쳥ퟜ쫇틔샻벺캪뚯솦,웳춼틔ퟮ킡뗄듺볛싔컊쳢ꆣ뮻좡ퟮ듳뗄샻틦;뛾쫇쎿룶뺭볃룶쳥헆컕쇋췪쪵퇩뺭볃톧쫇평2002쓪억놴뛻뺭볃톧붱좫탅쾢ꆣ퓚ꆰ췪좫샭탔ꆱ뗄볙짨믹뒡짏,솬탸뺺볛뗃훷SMITH\[15\뷌]쫚뾪뒴뗄,쯻춬쪱튲쫇뗚1룶쫐뎡훐뗄붻틗헟뻹럻뫏춬훊탔풤웚,믹폚춬훊폃쪵퇩랽램퇐뺿솬탸뺺볛뗄톧헟ꆣSMITH\[16\뷸]탔풤웚뗄뻶닟탐캪뗄ퟛ뫏ퟷ폃닺짺쇋풤웚뗄뷡탐쇋튻쾵쇐돉릦뗄쪵퇩,춨맽뛔릫뾪놨볛뗄솬맻,듓뛸탎돉뻹뫢,헢뻍쫇늩?럖컶톧엉뗄믹놾탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄쪵퇩퇐뺿랢쿖,듳늿럖뗄붻틗볛쮼쿫ꆣ좻뛸,퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄뻶닟헟컞램ퟶ룱럇뎣뷓뷼샭싛풤닢뗄뻹뫢볛룱,늢쟒쪵볊붻떽ꆰ췪좫샭탔ꆱ;웤튻,솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄쎿룶뺭틗볛룱샫뻹뫢볛룱뇪ힼ닮쯦쪱볤뗄췆틆훰늽복볃룶쳥횪뗀ퟔ벺뗄돉놾믲맀볛,틔벰웤쯻붻틗킡,ퟮ훕쫕솲폚뒫춳뺭볃럖컶훐뗄뺺헹뻹뫢볛헟뗄폐쿞놨볛탅쾢,헻룶쫐뎡뗄돉놾ꆢ맀볛뫍놨룱ꆣ볛뗄럖늼쫇컞듓횪뗀뗄,틲듋,컞램헆컕췪좫탅퓚쪵퇩뺭볃톧엉뗄퇐뺿훐,ퟮ뻟폐듺뇭탔쾢;웤뛾,평폚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄탅쾢늻돤럖,떼뗄돉맻쫇GODE뗈\[17\뷸]탐뗄쪵퇩ꆣ쯻쏇쫗쿈쳡훂쇋쫐뎡훐뗄뺭볃룶쳥늻싺ퟣꆰ춬훊탔풤웚ꆱ,돶2훖ꆰ쇣탅쾢ꆱ붻틗닟싔(zero2intelligence,틲뛸컞램탎돉만뚨뻹뫢ꆣꋚ늩?럖컶톧엉춨맽ZI),폃ꆰ컞풼쫸쇣탅쾢ꆱ닟싔(zero2intelligence볲뮯솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗맦퓲ꆢ붻틗죋쫽뫍짌unconstrained,ZI2U)쒣쓢솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄컞욷쫽솿,냑떥쿲엄싴뗄훘튪뷡싛췆맣떽솬탸뺺샭탔룶쳥,폃ꆰ풼쫸탍쇣탅쾢ꆱ닟싔(Zero2Intel2볛쫐뎡훐ꆣ볲뮯쫐뎡맦퓲뗄풭틲뫜볲떥,평폚솬ligencewithConstraint,ZI2C)쒣쓢쫐뎡훐뗄폐탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄놨볛뻶닟맽돌뢴퓓탔뫍쯦믺쿞샭탔룶쳥ꆣ볙짨솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐퓊탭뗄ퟮ뗍탔,죧맻늻볲뮯뻍컞램폃ힼ좷뗄쫽톧폯퇔뷸탐놨볛캪Omin,ퟮ룟놨볛캪OmaxꆣZI2U닟싔뗄놨볛쏨쫶,듓뛸컞램닉좡퇝틯쪽뗄쫽톧췆샭쟳좡뻹캪[Omin,Omax]쟸볤쓚뻹퓈럖늼뗄쯦믺횵ꆣ뿉틔뾴뫢뷢ꆣ돶,닉좡룃닟싔뗄싲랽놨볛뿉틔뗍폚웤뛔쯹릺늻쓑뾴돶,룃톧엉퇐뺿뗄2룶쳘뗣튲쫇웤짌욷뗄맀볛,싴랽놨볛튲뿉틔뗍폚웤돉놾,헢뻍죵뗣쯹퓚ꆣ평폚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄뢴퓓탔뫍쯦믺쫇쯹캽뗄ꆰ컞샭탔ꆱꆣZI2C닟싔뗄쫽톧쏨쫶캪탔,붻틗헟뗄ꆰ췪좫샭탔ꆱ볙짨맽폚잿,룃쫐뎡훐싲랽닟싔ꆡBiꆫU(Omin,Vi\],뻹퓈럖늼;뗄붻틗룶쳥췹췹뇭쿖돶ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱ뗄쳘뗣ꆣ뷼(3)벸쓪,튻킩톧헟쳡돶쇋ꆰ탐캪늩?싛ꆱ\[12,13\],퓚싴랽닟싔ꆡSjꆫU[Cj,Omax),뻹퓈럖늼;ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱ뗄볙짨쳵볾쿂퇐뺿죋뗄뺭볃탐캪,(4)쫔춼붫뒫춳늩?싛삭믘떽쿖쪵뗄뿲볜훐살ꆣ평쪽훐,Bi뇭쪾뗚i룶싲랽뗄놨볛,Vi뇭쪾뗚i룶싲폚쒿잰뛔ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱ뗄죏쪶뮹늻릻짮죫,헢랽랽뗄맀볛;Sj뇭쪾뗚j룶싴랽뗄놨볛,Cj뇭쪾뗚쏦뗄릤ퟷ뮹쎻폐좡뗃쪵훊탔춻웆ꆣ쇭췢,뮹폐톧j룶싴랽뗄돉놾ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶:ZI2C싲랽횻쓜퓚쫐헟뎢쫔ퟅ붫퇝뮯늩?샭싛퓋폃떽솬탸뺺볛붻틗뎡퓊탭뗄ퟮ뗍놨볛뫍룷ퟔ맀볛뗄쟸볤쓚쯦믺톡닟싔뗄퇐뺿훐,럖컶뗄훘뗣듓맽좥뗄늩?뻹뫢좡놨볛,듓뛸놣횤쇋웤놨볛늻룟폚맀볛;ZI2C랢햹떽붻틗닟싔뗄퇝뮯뻹뫢ꆣ샽죧,싴랽횻쓜퓚룷ퟔ돉놾뫍쫐뎡퓊탭뗄ퟮ룟놨볛뗄VYTELLINGUM뗈\[14\퇐]뺿쇋3훖늻춬샠탍뗄쟸볤쓚,놣횤쇋웤놨볛늻뗍폚돉놾,헢뻍쫇쯹캽붻틗닟싔뗄퇝뮯뻹뫢컊쳢,쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿캪솬탸뗄ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱꆣ춨맽뇈뷏헢2훖붻틗닟싔뗄럂뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿쳡릩쇋탂뗄쫓뷇ꆣ헦쪵퇩폫ꆰ죋ꆱ쪵퇩뗄뷡맻,쯻쏇뗃돶뷡싛:솬탸ꆤ923ꆤ
맜샭톧놨뗚5뻭뗚6웚2008쓪11퓂뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄풴엤훃폐킧탔쫇평폚붻틗맦퓲쫇:평폚ퟔ뚯붻틗닟싔퓚볆쯣뫍볇틤랽쏦뗄폅뗄ퟷ폃,폫쫐뎡훐붻틗쮫랽뗄뚯믺ꆢ헆컕뗄탅쾢쫆,퓚뢴퓓뮷뺳쿂뇈죋룼폐폅쫆,쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿쪹틔벰톧쾰쓜솦컞맘ꆣ죋쏇뾴떽쇋ퟔ뚯붻틗닟싔뗄맣삫잰뺰ꆣPOSA2CLIFF뗈\[18\]뛔짏쫶뷡싛쳡돶쇋훊틉,쯻쏇DA\[28\퇐]뺿쇋ZIPꆢGD뫍KAPLAN뗈닟싔퓚뛔춨맽퇏룱뗄룅싊럖컶횸돶:GODE뗈\[17\]뗄뷡싛돆ꆢ럇뛔돆뮷뺳쿂뗄폅쇓컊쳢ꆣCAI뗈\[29\뷸]탐쇋횻쓜퓚뛔돆뗄릩탨쟺쿟뗄쟩뿶쿂랢짺,퓚룼튻ZIꆢZIP뗈8훖닟싔뗄퇝뮯쪵퇩ꆣ햲컄뷜뗈\[30\퇐]냣뗄릩탨쟺쿟뗄쟩뿶쿂,ZI닟싔늢늻쓜닺짺룟뺿쇋ꆰZIPꆱ닟싔햽쪤ꆰZI2Cꆱ뗄풭틲뫍쳵볾ꆣ뗄쫐뎡킧싊,붻틗헟뗄뚯믺ꆢ톧쾰쓜솦믡뛔쫐뎡쪵퇩뺭볃톧엉뗄퇐뺿틔SMITH뗄뾪뒴탔닺짺펰쿬ꆣ뻝듋,쯻쏇쳡돶쇋튻훖뻟폐볲떥ퟔ톧쪵퇩캪웰뗣,춨맽튻뎡톧쾰쓜솦쫇럱펰쿬솬탸쾰쓜솦뗄ꆰZIPꆱ닟싔(zero2intelligenceplus,뺺볛쫐뎡뫪맛뇭쿖뗄헹싛냑쯼췆쿲룟뎱,슽탸ZIP),늢폃럂헦쪵퇩횤쏷쇋ꆰZIPꆱ닟싔뗃떽뗄뷡펿쿖쇋튻킩뻟폐ퟔ톧쾰쓜솦뗄붻틗닟싔,틔벰싛룼뷓뷼죋뗄쪵퇩뷡맻ꆣ룷훖닟싔뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿ꆣ룃톧엉퇐뺿뗄튻룶훘튪ZHAN뗈\[19\]쳡돶쇋튻룶춨폃ꆰ쇣탅쾢ꆱ붻쳘뗣쫇:늻쫇춨맽쫽톧붨쒣,뛸쫇춨맽쪵퇩쫖뛎틗닟싔ꆰk2ZIꆱ,룃닟싔뗄쫽톧쏨쫶캪:퇐뺿솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟싔컊쳢,늢쟒퓚쪵Biꆫ[kVi,Vi\],뻹퓈럖늼;(5)퇩훐볙뚨쫐뎡훐뗄릩탨쟺쿟쫇ꆰ췢짺ꆱ뗄,뻟쳥Sjꆫ[Cj,Omax-k(Omax-Cj)\],뻹퓈럖늼;뇭쿖캪쪵퇩훐뗄릩탨쟺쿟뚼쫇평쪵퇩헟쫂쿈룸(6)뚨뗄,벴싲랽뗄맀볛뫍싴랽뗄돉놾퓚쪵퇩훐쫇쪽훐,닎쫽kꇊ\[0,1ꆣ\]웤뺭볃틢틥쫇:뛔폚싲랽쫂쿈룸뚨뗄,늢쟒쫇늻뿉틔룄뇤뗄ꆣ헢튲돉캪룃살쮵,(1-k)쫇웤ퟮ룟웚췻샻죳싊;뛔폚싴랽톧엉퇐뺿뗄튻룶죵뗣,틲캪퓚쿖쪵뗄솬탸뺺볛살쮵,(1-k)폫웤ퟮ룟웚췻샻죳싊돉헽뇈ꆣ떱쫐뎡훐,릩룸뫍탨쟳쫇싲싴쮫랽쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄뷡k=0쪱,k2ZI붻틗헟닉좡뗄쫇ZI2C닟싔;떱k맻,벴쫐뎡훐뗄릩탨쟺쿟쫇ꆰ쓚짺ꆱ뗄ꆣ=1쪱,k2ZI붻틗헟닉좡뗄쫇헦쪵놨볛닟싔ꆣ춨맽럂헦쪵퇩횤쏷:닎쫽ꆰkꆱ뛔솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄3ꆡ볆쯣뺭볃톧엉쫐뎡킧싊ꆢ욽뻹붻틗볛룱ꆢ붻틗듎쫽뗈폐횱뷓뗄볆쯣뺭볃톧엉(agent2basedcomputational펰쿬,듓뛸횤쏷쇋붻틗헟뗄쫕틦뚯믺펰쿬룃쫐economics,ACE)퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗닟싔뗄뎡뗄뫪맛뇭쿖ꆣ퇐뺿훐,쫗쿈볙뚨쫐뎡훐뗄릩탨쟺쿟쫇쓚짺뗄,폫듋춬쪱,톧헟쏇쳡돶쇋뛠훖뻟폐ퟔ톧쾰벴죏캪쫐뎡릩탨뗄뚯첬뇤뮯쫇평폚싲싴쮫랽쿠쓜솦뗄붻틗닟싔ꆣ샽죧,DAWID\[20\냑]틅뒫쯣램뮥ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻,쫇쓚짺폚쫐뎡횮훐뗄,뛸늻쫇쫂폃폚붻틗닟싔뗄짨볆,GJERSTAD뗈\[21\룸]돶쇋쿈췢늿룸뚨뗄,듓뛸뿋럾쇋쪵퇩뺭볃톧뷗뛎뗄튻룶믹폚탅탄몯쫽살볆쯣ퟮ듳웚췻쫕틦뗄좱뗣ꆣ쇭췢,볆쯣뺭볃톧튲춻웆쇋뒫춳늩?샭싛ꆰGDꆱ붻틗닟싔,SUNJU뗈\[22\]룸돶쇋튻룶폐ퟔꆰ췪좫샭탔ꆱ뗄볙짨,죏캪쫐뎡훐뗄붻틗헟횻쓜쫊펦쓜솦뗄붻틗쒣탍ꆰp2strategyꆱ,HE뗈\[23\]쳡ퟶ떽퓚늻좷뚨ힴ첬ꆢ튻뚨탅쾢쿂뗄폐쿞샭탔,뛸돶쇋믹폚쒣뫽싟벭뗄ꆰPL2strategyꆱꆣZHAN럇췪좫샭탔ꆣ평듋,볆쯣뺭볃톧엉퓚룼캪뷓뷼쿖뗈\[24\폃]볆쯣믺럂헦뗄랽램,퇐뺿쇋붻틗닟싔훐쪵뗄ힴ첬쿂퇐뺿솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟싔컊뗄ꆰ뇪룟ꆱ뛔솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄펰쿬,틔벰룃쫐뎡쳢ꆣ뗄뛔돆쓉쪲뻹뫢뇪룟ꆣ볆쯣뺭볃톧엉뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇:냑쫐뎡훐뗄룃톧엉퇐뺿뗄쇭튻룶죈뗣쫇뷸탐뛠룶붻틗붻틗헟뚨틥캪뻟폐ퟔ쫊펦쓜솦ꆢ폐쿞샭탔뗄A2닟싔뗄뇈뷏ꆣퟮ퓧뷸탐헢랽쏦퇐뺿뗄쫇쏀맺뗄gent,룷룶Agent폐늻춬뗄풤닢폫뻶닟믺훆,늢\[25\]SantaFeInstitute,폐30뛠훖볆쯣믺붻틗닟쟒풤닢맦퓲쓜릻쯦ퟅ쫐뎡ힴ첬뗄뇤뮯뛸뷸뮯,싔닎볓쇋뇈주,살ퟔ쏷쓡쯕듯듳톧뗄KAPLAN쯼닉좡ꆰퟔ쿂뛸짏ꆱ뗄랽램,춨맽쒣쓢쾵춳훐룶뷌쫚뗄볲떥뗄ꆢ럇ퟔ쫊펦뗄ꆢ컞풤닢쓜솦뗄ꆢ컞쳥뗄ퟷ폃맦퓲,듓뛸맛달헻룶쾵춳뗄탐캪ꆣ웤샭춳볆릦쓜뫍컞폅뮯릦쓜뗄닟싔믱뗃뗚1쏻ꆣ싛믹뒡캪뢴퓓쫊펦쾵춳CAS(complexadaptiveTESAURO뗈\[26\]톡좡쇋5훖볆쯣믺붻틗닟싔system),냑쾵춳훐뗄룶쳥뾴ퟷ쫇뻟폐ퟔ짭쒿뗄(ZI,Kaplan,ZIP,GD뫍MGD),퓚MAGENTA뫍훷뚯탔뗄믽벫훷쳥,힢훘퇐뺿룶쳥횮볤틔벰럂헦뮷뺳훐뷸탐쇋뗄뇈뷏쪵퇩ꆣDAS뗈\[27\]퓚룶쳥뫍뮷뺳횮볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃,늢쟒틔뚯첬뗄ꆢ퇝IBM뗄Watson쪵퇩뺭볃톧쪵퇩쫒뷸탐쇋죋폫뮯뗄맛뗣살퇐뺿쾵춳뗄ힴ첬뫍탐캪\[31ꆣ\]볆쯣믺ퟔ뚯붻틗닟싔뗄뇈뷏,쯻쏇뗃돶뗄뷡싛볆쯣뺭볃톧춨맽퓚볆쯣믺뮷뺳훐탩쓢튻룶ꆤ924ꆤ
솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟싔퇐뺿ퟛ쫶ꆪꆪ햲컄뷜ꆡ짛ꆡ풭럂헦뗄뺭볃쾵춳,살퇐뺿쿖쪵뺭볃쾵춳뗄웕뇩룕탋웰늻뻃,쒿잰뗄퇐뺿뮹듦퓚튻뚨늻ퟣ,훷튪맦싉뫍쿖쿳ꆣ쒿잰,쯼훷튪폃폚막욱쫐뎡ꆢ췢믣뇭쿖퓚:ꋙ뛔솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐ꆰ쓚짺ꆱ릩탨쟺쿟쫐뎡뫍뗧솦쫐뎡뗈뗄퇐뺿\[32ꆫ34\ꆣ]쏀맺SantaFe뗄뇤뮯맦싉좱랦ퟣ릻뗄쇋뷢,뛔ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱ뗄Institute뗄ARTHUR뗈\[35\]쪹폃믹폚Agent뗄죏쪶탨튪뷸튻늽짮죫;ꋚ퓚Agent쯣램톡퓱뫍볆쯣믺쒣탍(뛸늻쫇뷢컶뗄쫽톧쒣탍)살퇐뺿짨볆짏듦퓚튻뚨쎤쒿탔,웤풭틲쫇쒿잰뮹쎻폐놾쫐뎡,붨솢쇋쫗룶죋릤막욱쫐뎡,첨췥헾훎듳헒떽ꆰ죋ꆱ퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐톧쾰탐캪뗄튻냣맦톧죋릤훇쓜폫뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄튲붨솢쇋죋릤막욱싉ꆣ떫쫇,볆쯣뺭볃톧엉쫇3훖톧엉훐ퟮ뷓뷼쿖쫐뎡\[36\];췢믣쫐뎡짏,ARIFOVIC\[37ꆢ\]IZUMI쪵뗄,퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿훐뻟폐뗈\[38\]춨맽탩쓢뗄췢믣쫐뎡살퇐뺿믣싊뇤뚯컊맣삫잰뺰ꆣ쳢;BOWER뗈\[39ꆢ\]BUNN뗈\[40\냑]볆쯣뺭볃톧폃폚뗧솦쫐뎡뗄퇐뺿훐ꆣ솬탸뺺볛붻틗믺훆맣랺4ꆡ뷡폯폃폚짏쫶벸훖쫐뎡,룃뷗뛎붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿훷ퟛ짏쯹쫶,솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗닟싔뗄퇐뺿튪벯훐퓚헢킩쫐뎡훐뗄Agent훇쓜쯣램짨볆뫍튻횱쫇퇐뺿뗄쓑뗣뫍죈뗣컊쳢,폐맘룃컊쳢뗄죋믺뇈뷏쪵퇩2룶랽쏦퇐뺿뿉틔럖캪늩?럖컶톧엉ꆢ쪵퇩뺭볃톧엉뫍:(1)훇쓜쯣램짨볆ꆡ쯦ퟅ짱뺭췸싧ꆢ틅뒫쯣볆쯣믺뺭볃톧엉,죽헟뗄슽탸돶쿖쪹룃퇐뺿듓램뗈죋릤훇쓜랽램뗄쳡돶,솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐펿뻠샫쿖쪵뷏풶떽훰붥쳹뷼쿖쪵ꆣ탂퇐뺿랽램뗄쿖돶탭뛠훇쓜탍뗄붻틗닟싔ꆣ샽죧,ARI2돶쿖,캪룃컊쳢뗄퇐뺿쳡릩쇋맣삫뗄랢햹뿕볤ꆣFOV퓚뷱뫳뗄퇐뺿훐,틔쿂컊쳢횵뗃뷸튻늽볓잿:IC\[37\쪹]폃믹폚Agent뗄GA(geneticalgo2(1)솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗맽돌맦싉탔뗄퇐뺿rithm)뗄톧쾰믺훆뗃떽뗄맘폚췢믣쫐뎡뗄튻킩쳘헷;BELL\[41\룸]돶쇋훘뢴늩?훐뗄잿뮯톧쾰쯣ꆡ솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡붻틗맽돌뗄쯦믺탔쫇퓬돉웤붻램틗볛룱늨뚯뗄쓚틲,쪹룃쫐뎡훐뗄붻틗볛룱춬;CHEN\[42\]쳡돶믹폚틅뒫돌탲짨볆뗄붻틗닟싔;YANG\[43\]쳡돶쇋믹폚짱뺭췸싧벼쫵뗄붻틗퇹뇭쿖캪뚯첬탔ꆢ쯦믺탔,뛸붻틗볛룱뗄뇤뚯맦닟싔ꆣ싉쫇짨볆붻틗닟싔뗄믹뒡ꆣ(2)죋퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄탐캪퇐뺿ꆡ쒿(2)죋2믺뇈뷏쪵퇩ꆡ퇐뺿죋퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄톧쾰탐캪쳘헷,늻뷶뿉틔캪짨볆돶룼뫃잰뮹늻쟥돾죋퓚뢴퓓뮷뺳쿂뻶닟탐캪뗄튻냣맦뗄A싉,헢킩탐캪뿏뚨폐뇰폚뒫춳뗄ꆰ췪좫샭탔ꆱ볙gent쳡릩냯훺,뛸쟒뮹뿉틔믘듰Agent쒣쓢죋뷸탐쪵퇩뗄폐킧탔컊쳢ꆣMILLER뗈\[44\ퟮ]짨,뇭쿖캪ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱꆣ퇐뺿죋퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡퓧뷸탐쇋헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿,쯦뫳ARTHUR\[45ꆢ\]훐뗄톧쾰뫍뻶닟탐캪,뿉틔퓚짨볆Agent쪱복A짙쎤쒿탔ꆣRIFOVIC\[37,46ꆢ\]CHAN뗈\[47ꆢ\]DUFFY뗈\[48\]뚼뷸탐쇋헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿ꆣ돵늽뗄퇐뺿뷡맻쿔쪾(3)쓚짺릩탨쟺쿟퇝뮯맦싉뗄퇐뺿ꆡ쪵퇩,폃뇭쏷,췢짺뗄릩탨쟺쿟뇤뮯믡펰쿬붻틗닟싔뗄Agent뷸탐쪵퇩뷡맻폫폃죋쪵퇩뷡맻샠쯆ꆣ컒맺톧헟쇵듳몣뗈\[49ꆢ\]쇵쿾맢뗈톡좡\[55\],뛸싲싴쮫랽릲춬ퟷ폃쿂뗄쓚짺릩탨쟺\[50\]뫍룟놦뾡뗈\[51\]뷸탐쇋헢랽쏦뗄폐틦뎢쫔,폃볆쯣믺쒣쿟뛔붻틗닟싔뗄펰쿬붫룼캪뢴퓓,헢랽쏦뗄릤쓢뗄랽램살퇐뺿막욱쫐뎡,뢶뺲뗈\[52\]폃럂헦퇐ퟷ닅룕룕뾪쪼ꆣ뺿퓚쿟쮫쿲엄싴훐뗄늻췪좫탅쾢늩?컊쳢;퓚솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡뗄붻틗닟싔퇐뺿랽쏦,훬쿾늨닎뾼컄쿗뗈\[1\][J\].\[53\룸]돶쇋솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡훐뗄믹폚솣ퟓ좺폅뮯뗄닟싔톧쾰쒣탍,슫열폮뗈OperationsResearch,1956,4(1):104ꆫ112.\[54\]쳡돶쇋믹폚믬뫏닟싔뗄뚯첬놨볛쯣램ꆣ\[2\],Auctions,and볆쯣뺭볃톧엉뫍쪵퇩뺭볃톧엉뛔붻틗헟뗄CompetitiveSealedTenders[J\].JournalofFinance,1961,16:8ꆫ37.볙짨쫇쿠춬뗄,벴솬탸뺺볛쫐뎡쫇평쿠뮥펰쿬\[3\M]CAFEERP,뗄폐쿞샭탔룶쳥ퟩ돉,뛸럇쿠뮥뛀솢뗄췪좫샭[J\].JournalofEconomicLiterature,1987,25:699ꆫ탔룶쳥ꆣ솽헟뗄쟸뇰퓚폚뛔쫐뎡뗄릩탨쟺쿟뗄738.볙뚨늻춬:쪵퇩뺭볃톧볙뚨릩탨쟺쿟쫇ꆰ췢짺ꆱ\[4\]뗄,벴평쪵퇩짨볆헟쫂쿈룸뚨;뛸볆쯣뺭볃톧훐PlayedbyBayesianPlayers[J\].ManagementSci2뗄릩탨쟺쿟쫇ꆰ쓚짺ꆱ뗄,쫇싲싴쮫랽릲춬ퟷ폃ence,1967ꆫ1968,14:159ꆫ182,320ꆫ334,486ꆫ뗄뷡맻,뷸튻늽뷓뷼쇋쪵볊뗄쫐뎡ꆣ볆쯣뺭볃톧502.ꆤ925ꆤ
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