|COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL SHANGHAIRETAIL PROPERTY | SECOND HALF | 2008Shanghai Retail Property Market 짏몣쇣쫛컯튵쫐뎡HIGHLIGHTS报告要点Shanghai’s retail market managed to hold up well in H2 2008 not-在经济环境波动加剧背景下，2008下半年上海零售市场需求表现比withstanding the volatile external environment. Average rental 其他类型物业相对稳定，国内外品牌仍保持扩张动力，支撑了租金edged up further, underpinned by the ongoing expansion of both 的上升。international and domestic brands. Shopping centres in the emerging areas outperformed those in 其中，新兴区域的购物中心较传统区域租金增长更快，空置率更traditional areas in terms of lower vacancy rate and faster rental 低。由于部分商厦纷纷开始进行改建或改造工程，导致传统区域空growth in H2 2008. Higher vacancy in the traditional areas was 置率较高。mainly due to the on-going renovation and upgrading of several shopping malls.在经济持续低迷背景下，未来较多的新增供应将为2009年的市场空Abundant supply against moderation in retail sales growth amidst the economic slowdown will exert pressure on the vacancy rate 置率带来压力，租金增幅也将相应放缓。in 2009. Rental growth is expected to slow down somewhat in 市场回顾ARKET OVERVIEW2008年以来虽然外围经济波动，经济增长放缓，同时股市及楼市持The retail property market held relatively rm in 2008 as retail sales 续回调，但零售业增长仍然乐观，受其支撑，上海商业零售物业fared well, despite the volatile global environment, the slow down of the 市场表现相对稳健。全球性的金融危机目前并未削弱本地零售市场domestic economy as well as corrections of the local stock market and 的增长动力，扣除通货膨胀影响后，2008社会消费零售总额（实际property market. Total retail sales rose by % in volume terms YoY 值）累计同比增长为%。(year on year) in 2008. So far, the growth momentum was not signi -cantly affected by the global nancial 1 Shanghai GDP Growth, Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods and Per Figure 2 Shanghai Total Retail Sales Growth in Volume, Real Wage Growth and Capita Disposable Income Rental Growth 图 1 짏몣짺닺ퟜ횵ꆢ짧믡쿻럑쇣쫛ퟜ뛮헦쪵퓶뎤싊벰죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫图 2 돇쫐횰릤릤퓶뎤ꎬ짌튵쇣쫛ퟢ뷰횸쫽뇤뮯25%Per Capita Disposable Income Growth ሙ⇥Ҏഛৃᬃ䜡ᬊܹ䭓⥛Real Growth Rate of Wage Ꮉ䌘ᬊܹᅲ䰙䭓%Shanghai Real GDP Growth RateϞ⍋ݙ⫳ѻᘏؐᅲ䰙䭓⥛Retail Sales Growth in volume ⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂᘏ乱ᅲ䰙䭓⥛Retail Sales Growth in volume ⼒Ӯ⍜䌍ક䳊ଂᘏ乱ᅲ䰙䭓⥛Rental Growth in Traditional Area⾳䞥䭓(䅵ܹᮄ݈ऎඳ)20%%15%%%10%%5%%0% 2008 2008 Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) ResearchSource: Shanghai Statistics Bureau数据来源: 上海高力国际研究部数据来源: 上海统计局Although the subdued asset market saw some negative wealth effects 今年资产市场低迷的走势使消费者的投资性收入大大缩减，但由于of consumers, urban residents’ per capita disposable income did not see 投资性收入一直以来占城市居民可支配收入比率较低，因此居民的a notable fall given the small proportion of passive investment income 总体收入未有明显滑落。然而投资性收入的缩减却降低了居民添置relative to total wage earnings. The wealth effect weighed more on con-耐用消费品的意愿，目前部分行业，如装潢sumption of durable goods. The slow down or decline in sales of home 建材、通讯器材及汽车均有销售显著减缓或decoration products, telecommunication equipments and automobiles 下降的情况。对于以服装、餐饮及其他快速were more apparent. On the contrary, the sales of apparel, F&B and 消费品为主的大型商场则影响较小。other FMCG products were less impacted.
The Knowledge Report | Second Half | 2008 | Retail PropertySHOPPING CENTRE MARKET购物中心市场The prime retail property market held up well in H2 2008. Ground oor 2008下半年，上海优质购物中心市场依然保持了稳健发展。虽然商rent, amidst thin transactions, still recorded an increase over the rst 家在年底显得更为谨慎，市场成交较少，但底层商铺租金较上半年half of the year. Notwithstanding the margin squeeze for some retail 有所上升。中心区域的优质零售物业仍相对稀缺，即使商家盈利能operators, the scarcity of retail space in downtown CBDs, coupled with 力减弱，众多品牌扩张的需求仍能支撑优质零售物业的租金。the expansion demand by international brands, rendered support to rental of major shopping the limited new supply in traditional retail area, many existing 传统中心区域零售物业新增供应有限，为满足众多品牌的扩张需retail properties were undergoing renovation and upgrading to meet the 求，现有项目纷纷进行改造与升级工程，比如虹桥与淮海中路商圈expansion demand of both international and domestic brands. Exam-正在进行改建以期升级成为更高端的购物区域。ples include the Hongqiao CBD and Huaihai Middle Road’s upgrading to become high-end retail facilities. In October, Marks & Spencer (M&S) opened its debut outlet in the 10月份玛莎百货在南京西路原鸿翔百货旧址上开设其在国内的第一mainland at premises formerly occupied by the Wings Department 家店。作为中高端百货，其“高比率自有品牌”的经营模式将为国Store at Nanjing Rd. West. As a mid class department store, the higher 内零售业带来一种新的理念。南京东路353广场在历经多年定位调proportion of self-owned brands in M&S introduced a new concept 整后于10月重新开业，其定位与区域内在07年开业的宏伊商厦形成to the domestic retail market. On Nanjing Rd. East, 353 Plaza also 竞争态势。虹口传统商圈四川北路则力图改变区域内中小商铺过多reopened in October after several years of re-positioning. The new po-格局、通过土地批租引入更多大型新商业网点等措施升级商圈的业sitioning in this shopping mall posed head-on, yet healthy competition 态。with the Hongyi Tower, which opened in 2007. On the other hand, Si-chuan Road North, the traditional shopping area in Hongkou district, also changed its spatial layout from small-to-medium sized shops to larger shopping complexes partly through renewal of leases. In the meanwhile, some retail property owners stepped up penetration 另一方面，部分地产商则选择在新兴居民聚居区域填补商业空白。in the emerging areas in the hope of lling the supply gap. In-Time 银泰百货于12月在上海南站开出其上海第一家门店，而超大型商业Department Store opened its debut Shanghai outlet in the Southern 项目仲盛广场则于10月开幕于莘庄站南广场。由于商家间的4公里Railway Station area in December, while the retail giant Super-Ocean 核心辐射商圈彼此重叠，新增项目为区域带来了竞争，也为地铁1extended its foothold to the southern portion of the Xinzhuang Metro 号线徐家汇站西侧区域的大型居民区提供了更多消费场所。Station in October. The new supply of retail facilities will cater to the demand from the massive residential developments in the west of the No. 1 Line Xujiahui Metro Station. At the same time, the overlapping of the 4-km radius catchment of these shopping malls will intensify competition in the 3 Shanghai Shopping Centre Supply, Take-up & VacancyFigure 4 Shanghai Shopping Centre Occupied & Vacant Stock by District in H2 2008图 3 짏몣폅훊릺컯훐탄릩펦솿ꎬ컼쓉솿뫍뿕훃싊图 4 ㈰〸쓪쿂냫쓪뛈짏몣폅훊릺컯훐탄럖쟸햼폐쏦믽뫍뿕훃쏦믽sq mNew Supply կᑨ䞣Take-up 㒇䞣sq mOccupied Area ܹ偏䴶⿃Vacancy Area ぎ㕂䴶⿃Vacancy ぎ㕂⥛500,000W450,00025%hole city vacancy ܼᏖぎ㕂⥛Traditional Area Vacancy Ӵ㒳ऎぎ㕂⥛20%400,000400,00020%350,00019%16%300,000300,00015%15%250,00014%12%200,00010%200,0008%150,0003%100,0005%5%5%100,0004%50,0002%2%00%00%䭓ᅕCN咘⌺HP䴭ᅝJAशLW⌺ϰPD᱂䰔PTᕤ∛XHᴼ⌺YP䯌࣫ZB200020012002200320042005200620072008Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) ResearchSource: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源: 上海高力国际研究部数据来源: 上海高力国际研究部2COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
The Knowledge Report | Second Half | 2008 | Retail PropertySUPPLY, DEMAND & VACANCY供应，需求及空置分析In H2 2008, only a limited amount of 71,600 sq m of retail space was 2008下半年新增供应有限，共计71,600平米,其中以浦东新上海城put onto the market. Pudong was relatively more active and several new 商业区较为活跃。一些新的项目都进入了招商阶段，比如，上海湾projects have commenced leasing. For example, the opening of both 在下半年已开始营业，而环球金融中心的落成也为陆家嘴区域带来Shanghai Bay and the retail portion of SWFC have added new supply 新增供应。 浦西方面，天山商圈内的一些项目经过近半年运营，to the Lujiazui area. In Puxi, projects that began operation previously, 渐趋成熟，加上汇金百货将于年底开业，区域的商业体量更趋放such as those in the Tianshan area, have reached stabilised occupancy 大，集聚效应更为明显。 in H2 after commencing operation by half a year. Coupled with the opening of the Huijin Department Store by year-end, the Tianshan re-tail area is getting more mature as a critical mass is gradually formed. On the demand side, various brands, particularly normal consump-市场需求方面，各品牌商家尤其是普通消费产品，仍然积极开拓上tion goods, remained keen on expanding in the Shanghai market and 海市场，寻求新的营业点。西班牙时装品牌ZARA进入上海后布点速searching for new retail outlets. Spanish fashion brand, Zara, quickened 度逐渐加快，迄今已开设6家门店，浦东、浦西各占三家。其中有its pace of expansion in Shanghai and has hitherto opened a total of 两家分别位于华狮广场（淮海中路）和353广场（南京东路），两six outlets in Shanghai, three of which are located in Pudong. Among 者均位于传统商业街并于今年刚翻新改造完毕。国内品牌同时也加the other three outlets in Puxi, two are located in newly renovated 紧扩张，如10月美特斯邦威在其南京东路旗舰商厦中引入了自有相shopping premises in traditional area, namely Joffre 688 and 353 Plaza. 对高端品牌Me & City，占据了两层楼面约3,600平米。而致力于创Meanwhile, domestic brands also hastened their expansion, with Me-立中国平价时装品牌的UR(URBAN RENEWAL)在中山公园龙之梦3楼开ters Bowen introducing its own upgrading brand, Me & City, in its ag-设了约1,100平米的门店。ship store on Nanjing Rd. East, occupying two oors totaling 3,600 sq m. Domestic fashion brand URBAN RENEWAL also opened a 1,100 -sq m store in Cloud Nine in Zhongshan Park. The tempo一部分在市区传统商业街的优质零售物业项目对其租户品牌进行调rary lull in occupancy due to renovation and tenant re-mix in several prime retail projects in traditional areas pushed the over-整，纷纷装修升级，导致空置率有所上升。目前市场整体空置率all vacancy rate to % in H2 2008, up three percentage points YoY. 为%，较去年同期上升3个百分点。相比传统商业街区的升级换Emerging areas witnessed better performance, as occupancy in new 代，经过一段时间的运营，新兴商业区的入驻率快速提高，平均空shopping malls increased after a period of operation. The vacancy rate 置率为%，较去年同期下降个百分点，这表明人口密集区域in emerging areas fell by percentage points YoY to % in H2 2008. 居民旺盛的消费潜力吸引着众多商家纷纷入驻。The lower vacancy rate in the emerging areas indicates that the robust consumption potential in the densely-populated districts appeals to many retail operators. RENT & GROSS YIELD ANALYS租金及收益率分析ISRental in the shopping centres held up well in H2 2008. This is sup-2008下半年市场整体租金表现良好，无论新商家还是现有品牌都ported not only by the new demand from retailers who are eager to 希望进入市场并增加其商业网点。年底市场平均租金较半年前上secure a foothold in the market, but also expansion demand by incum-涨%，较去年同期上涨%，底层租金达到每平米每天人民币bent operators. In H2 2008, average rent in Shanghai’s shopping cen-tres increased by % YoY, or % compared with six months ago, 元。其中传统区域较半年前上涨%，底层租金目前为每平米to RMB per sq m per day (G/F net area). Speci cally, rents in tra-每天人民币元，新兴区域同比上涨更快，较半年前上涨% ，ditional areas rose to RMB per sq m per day, up by % compared 达到每平米每天人民币元。2008年末 市场毛收益率约为7%。with six months ago. Emerging areas achieved a higher growth in rent, by % compared with six months ago, to RMB per sq m per day. Average gross yield was estimated at around 7% by the end of 2008. Figure 6 Shanghai Shopping Centre Ground & First Floor Rent by District in H2 2008Figure 5 Shanghai Shopping Centre Ground Floor Rental图몣릺컯훐탄뗗닣ퟢ뷰图 6 ㈰〸쓪짏냫쓪짏몣릺컯훐탄쫗닣벰뛾닣럖쟸ퟢ뷰 5 짏RMB/sqm/DRMB/Sq m/D60Average Ground Floor Rental 佪ሖᑇഛ⾳䞥4037Average First Floor Rental Ѡሖᑇഛ⾳䞥Rental of Traditional Area Ӵ㒳ऎ⾳䞥345035Rental of Emerging Area ᮄ݈ऎ⾳䞥Rental of Whole City ܼᏖ⾳䞥32304029252321203015201051000200020012002200320042005200620072008䭓ᅕCN咘⌺HP䴭ᅝJAशLW⌺ϰPD᱂䰔PTᕤ∛XHᴼ⌺YP䯌࣫ZBSource: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) ResearchSource: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源: 上海高力国际研究部数据来源: 上海高力国际研究部COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL327183628493635203827201036242112188
The Knowledge Report | Second Half | 2008 | Retail Property市场展望MARKET OUTLOOK293 OFFICES IN 61 COUNTRIES ON Given the rapid increase in new developments 由于各传统商业设施的改建更新以及新6 CONTINENTSand the upgrading of existing developments in 增项目的快速发展，未来新增供应较many districts, the future supply of retail space 大，2009年约有47万平米购物中心面USA 99will be more abundant. A total of 470,000 sq 市，将为市场消化带来压力。预计2009Canada 19m of shopping centre space will be launched in 2009. This will exert some pressure on the Latin America 18中心区域购物中心空置率应在10%左右。market. The vacancy rate is projected to rise to Asia Paci c 62around 10% in 95In the medium term, several projects are cur-目前浦东有多个零售物业项目处于施工Over $2 billion in annual revenue in 2007rently under construction in Pudong, including 阶段，包括位于世纪大都会项目中陆家868 million square feet under management the Metropolis by Lujiazui Group, and Phase I 嘴集团所开发部分，以及新鸿基的国金of IFC by Sun Hung Kai. The latter will add 11,000 Professionals中心1期。后者所附的近10万平米购物100,000 sq m of shopping space in 2010. The hosting of World Expo 2010 will also spur some 中心预期在2010年后进入市场。可以预new projects around the area, especially for 见，世博会的举办也将催生一部分项F&B and entertainment. For example, the for-目，尤其是餐饮和娱乐的零售项目，比mer Dock 16 area will be converted into 60,000 CONTACT INFORMATION如原上海十六铺码头区域将改建成为6万sq m of retail space, which together with the cruise terminal, will become new landmarks 多平米商业设施，配合世博的举行，与around the Expo area. 新建的游船码头共同成为标志性景观。Colliers International Property Consultants(Shanghai) Co Ltd16F Hong Kong New World TowerOn the demand side, the downturn in the 虽然目前政府所颁布的措施将刺激国内300 Huai Hai Zhong Road Shanghai 200021 PRCglobal economy will eventually have an impact 需求，但全球经济的放缓乃至衰退终将on Shanghai’s retail market, though that would Lina WongHingYin Lee影响上海的零售市场。社会零售消费在Managing DirectorDirectorbe mitigated somewhat by the Government’s East China未来几年中可能将放缓，但是否会大幅Research & Advisorymeasures to stimulate domestic demand. Retail Tel : 86 21 6141 3688East Chinasales growth will moderate from their rapid pace 影响零售物业市场仍有待观察（注）。Direct : 86 21 6141 3600Tel : 86 21 6141 3688in the past few years, and it has yet to see if Fax : 86 21 6141 3698Direct : 86 21 6141 3580the slowing sales in both nominal and volume @ : 86 21 6141 3699terms will substantially impact the retail @ market (Note).This report has been prepared by Colliers International Table 1 Major Retail Transactions in ShanghaiProperty Consultants (Shanghai) Co Ltd for general 表 1 짏몣쇣쫛쫐뎡훷튪돉붻낸샽information only. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no Landlord/Seller Property DistrictSale / LeaseTenant / Buyer SellerArea (approx sq m) representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. 业主 / 卖方物业区域买卖 / 租赁租户 / 买方卖方面积（约平方米）Colliers International does not guarantee, warrant or represent that the information contained in this Plaza 353 Nanjing . Lease document is correct. Any interested party should Zara1F-353广场南京东路租赁undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes Plaza 353Nanjing . Lease Toys”R”Usunequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions 6F-353广场南京东路租赁玩具反斗城and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising Wings Dept. StoreNanjing . Lease there from. This report and other research materials 玛莎百货1-4F3,800鸿翔百货南京东路租赁may be found on our website at Colliers Macaulay Nicolls Inc. and its country subsidiaries are member rms of Colliers International Hong Kong New World Tower Huaihai WengerB1-1F195Property Consultants, an af liation of independent 香港新世界大厦淮海中路租赁威戈companies with 293 of ces throughout 61 countries Nine Shopping CentreZhongshan ParkLeaseURBAN RENEWAL3F1,100龙之梦购物中心中山公园租赁由上海高力国际物业顾问有限公司制作的这份报告仅作为参考 资讯。虽然信息来源被视为可靠，但高力国际并不为其准确性 * The traditional areas quoted in the above report refer to East and West 作出任何保证或担保。任何有关的当事人需要自行承担关于资 Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) ResearchNanjing Road, Yu Garden, Huaihai Road, Lujiazui and Hongqiao; the 讯正确性的调查责任。高力国际特此声明，对文件中的直接、 数据来源: 上海高力国际研究部间接、推断性或默认的保证或说法不负上任何责任，不承担由 emerging areas refer to the other new commercial hubs, such as Daning 此产生的任何损失责任和赔偿责任。有关本报告及其它市场调 and Wujiaochang etc.研报告信息，请查阅本公司网页 * 报告中传统商业区包括南京东路、南京西路、豫园、淮海路、陆家嘴以及虹桥；新兴区域为除上述区域外正逐渐形成Colliers Macaulay Nicolls 以及其子公司均为 Colliers International Property Consultants 的联盟成员；高力国际 的商圈，如大宁和五角场等在全球家拥有办事处。 61 个国 293 家注：Note:从一种可供参考的观点分析看来，城市职工工资增长Our analysis from an alternative perspective shows that rental 实质上与购物中心租金水平变化有很大的关联。2009of shopping centres has higher correlation with wages of urban 年在经济发展放缓背景下城市职工工资收入增长也将workers than retail sales. It can thus be expected that along with 趋缓，因此购物中心租金变动将随之受到影响而减缓the moderated wage growth of urban workers in 2009 amidst the 上涨。 (请见图2)。economic slowdown, rent growth of shopping centres will also slow in tandem (See Figure 2).
