第1卷第4期南阳理工学院学报年7月JOURNAL OF NANYANG INSTITUTE OF ௹ຬᆴႪ߄مᄝఒြളӁڄགथҦᇏ֥ႋႨ梁 瑛,宋苏罗(ଲဝ۽࿐ჽႋႨඔ࿐༢ ފଲଲဝ 473004)ᅋ ေ:໓ᅣ০ႨڄགथҦ֥௹ຬᆴم,ࠆ֤ਔӌࡅӁളӁ֥ቋႪٚσ,ൈؓႿቋႪٚσѩࣉྛਔਲૹ؇ٳ༅bܱՍ:ڄགथҦ;௹ຬᆴم;ਲૹ؇ٳ༅ᇏٳোݼ:F127 ໓ངѓ്:AmE(dj)=ExijP(Hi) (j=1,2,,n)0 భi=1ၭइᆔіೂі1:ದૌᄝᆟᇍaࣜ࠶aफ൙ބರӈളࠃᇏࣜӈ߶მі1 ၭइᆔі֞၂ུაෛࠏၹႵܱaުݔ҂ಒק,طႻсྶቓԛ؎ބथק֥໙,ีᆃো໙ีࣼ൞ෛࠏथҦ໙ีb ٚσႮႿथҦᆀᄝቓԛथҦൈສສႵଖུෛࠏྟၹ֥ ၭd1d2,dn႕ཙۀੱ ,൞ؓ۲ᇕၹؿള֥ۀੱၘᆩࠇᆀॖܙ࠹ԛট,थҦᆀᄝ၇ऌ҂ۀੱ෮ק֥؟۱थҦٚH P(H)xx111112,x1nσᇏH2 P(H2)x21x22,x2n,҂ં࿊ᄴଧ၂ᇕٚσ,ေӵք၂ק֥ڄགb..........ၹՎᆃᇕथҦӫູڄགथҦb.....Hm P(Hm)xm1xm2,xmnڄགथҦ֥ᇶေหᆘ:ູթᄝሢथҦᆀ༐ຬղ֥֞ૼಒଢѓ,ೂ০ၭቋնࠇാቋཬ;թᄝሢਆၛ௹ຬᆴູѓሙ֥थҦٚم၂ϮൡႨႿၛ༯ࠫ۱ࠇਆ۱ၛഈ֥ሱಖሑ,ໃট࣮ࣨԛགྷଧᇕሑᇕ౦ঃ:,थҦದ҂ି൙༵ड़ק,൞۲ᇕሑԛགྷ֥ۀੱॖ(1)ۀੱ֥ԛགྷऎႵૼཁ֥ग़ܴྟᇉ,طбၛყ༵ܙෘԛট;թᄝሢਆ۱ၛഈ֥Ҧॖ܂थҦࢠ໗ק;ದ࿊ᄴ(2)थҦ҂൞ࢳथ၂Ցྟ໙ี,ط൞ࢳथ؟Ց,ቋުᆺ࿊ק၂۱Ҧ;۲۱Ҧᄝ҂ሱಖሑ༯֥൬ၭᆴࠇാᆴॖၛყ༵࠹ෘԛটbᇗگ֥໙;ี(3)थҦ֥ࢲݔ҂߶ؓथҦᆀջটᇗ֥1ުݔb ڄགथҦ֥௹ຬᆴمࠎႿڄགथҦ֥ᇶေหᆘ,ڄགथҦ֥ࠎ2 ਲૹ؇ٳ༅ЧٚمႵ௹ຬ൬ၭمބ௹ຬാم,ఃथҦሙᄵႵ௹ຬ൬ၭቋնሙᄵބ௹ຬാቋཬሙᄵbھٚم൞ڄགथҦ֥ܱᄝႿ۲ᇕሱಖሑԛགྷ֥ۀੱၛ൬ၭބാइᆔіູ၇ऌ,ٳљ࠹ෘ۲ॖྛٚσ൞ၘᆩ֥,ط൞۴ऌݖಀࣜဒܙ࠹ԛট֥,෮ၛ۴֥௹ຬᆴ,࿊ᄴఃᇏ௹ຬ൬ၭᆴቋն(ࠇ௹ຬാऌᆃဢ֥ۀੱᆴ࠹ෘԛট֥ၭᆴ҂ॖିٳࣚಒᆴቋཬ)֥ٚσቓູቋႪٚσbഡE(dj)іൕٚσॖौb၂֊ۀੱᆴႵਔэ߄,ऌၛಒק֥थҦٚσd൞ڎಯಖႵི,ࣼӮູᆴ֤ᇗ൪֥໙ีbၹՎᄝथj֥ၭ௹ຬᆴ(j=1,2,,,n);xijіൕٚσdjᄝሑHi༯Ӂള֥ၭᆴ(i=1,2,,,m);P(Hi)іൕҦݖӱᇏ,Ⴕсေਔࢳۀੱᆴэ߄ؓቋႪٚσ֥࿊ሑHᄴ࣮ࣨթᄝ؟ն֥႕ཙ,ࠧۀੱэ߄֞હӱ؇Ҍiؿള֥ۀ,ੱሹ܋ॖିԛགྷmᇕሑ,ᄵ௹ຬၭ֥࠹ෘ܄ൔູ:ႄఏथҦٚσ֥э߄,ᆃ၂ਢࢸ֥ׄۀੱӫູਢࢸۀੱࠇሇᅼۀੱbؓथҦ໙ีቓԛᆃᇕٳ༅ࣼࢡቓቔᆀࡥࢺ:ਃ ᠰ(1974-),୯,ණൖ,ڬ࢝൱,࣮ٚཟ:ႋႨඔ࿐bE-mai:lliangying589@
ֻ4௹ਃ ᠰ֩:௹ຬᆴႪ߄مᄝఒြളӁڄགथҦᇏ֥ႋႨ#79#ૹۋྟٳ༅ࠇᆀਲૹ؇ٳ༅bB(d2|H1)=480,B(d2|H2)=600,B(d2|H3)=ࣜݖਲૹ؇ٳ༅ᆭު,ೂݔथҦᆀ෮࿊ᄴ֥ٚ600,B(d2|H4)=600;σ҂ၹሱಖሑۀੱᄝఃᄍྸ֥༂ҵٓຶଽэطB(d3|H1)=450,B(d3|H2)=570,B(d3|H3)=э,ପહᆃ۱ٚσࣼ൞бࢠॖौ֥bਲૹ؇ٳ༅750,B(d3|H4)=500;֥҄ᇧ:B(d4|H1)=400,B(d4|H2)=520,B(d4|H3)=(1)ᄝЌӻቋႪٚσ໗ק֥భิ༯,ԛሱಖ700,B(d4|H4)=1000;ሑ༯ԛགྷۀੱ෮э֥ಸྸٓ;ຶᆃဢॖၛ֤ԛ൬ၭіೂі3b(2)ޙਈႨၛყҩބܙෘᆃུሱಖሑۀੱ֥і3 ൬ၭіٚم,ఃࣚ؇൞ڎିЌᆣ෮֤ۀੱᆴᄝՎᄍྸ֥༂ҵٓຶଽэ ٚσ; ൬ၭd1d2d3d4(3)؎෮ቔथҦ֥ॖौྟbۀੱ 3H1 P(H1)= ൌ২H2 P(H2)=ଖөӌളӁԛ१ଖஇ֥ྰө,ᄝݓ࠽H3 P(H3)= P(H4)=൧ӆഈᆃᇕөૄࡱ൲ࡎჿކ100ჭ,ଽཧૄࡱᆺିછ40ჭ,طૄࡱө֥ӮЧູ50ჭbऌຓ۴ऌഈіॖၛෘԛ۲ᇕٚσ֥न൬ၭ,ࠧ௹ຬ൬સ܄ඳܙ࠹4,༯୍؇ᆃᇕө֥ԛ१ླਈࠣॖିྟೂі2,໙ھӌೂޅᇅרކ֥ളӁਈbၭEB(dj)=EB(dj|Hi)P(Hi)bi=1Ⴕ EB(dі1)=@500+@500+2 ຓસ܄ඳؓԛ१ਈ֥ܙ࠹@500+@500=500ԛ१ླਈ(ຣࡱ)ۀੱ(ॖିྟ)EB(d2)=@480+@600+@600+@600=(d3)=@450+@570+@750+@750=(d4)=@400+@520+Ⴎีၩᆩ,ૄԛ१၂ࡱө֥൬ၭູ50ჭ,ૄ@700+@1000=694ଽཧ၂ࡱө10ჭ,ݓ࠽൧ӆഈؓө֥ླ๙ݖбࢠॖၛुԛֻඹᇕളӁٚσ֥௹ຬ൬ၭਈႵ4ᇕ౦ঃ,ऌՎཌྷႋᇅר4ᇕॖྛٚσ:ቋն,ၹՎھӌᇅרކ֥ളӁਈႋູ20ຣࡱbഡ d1-ളӁ10ຣࡱ;d2-ളӁ12ຣࡱ; ௹ຬാمd3-ളӁ15ຣࡱ;d4-ളӁ20ຣࡱ௹ຬാم൞Ⴈ௹ຬാቋཬቓູथҦሙᄵ֥ؓႿૄᇕٚσ,ໃট൧ӆ֥ླॖିႵ4ᇕٚمbೂݔളӁਈაൌ࠽ླਈ҂ཌྷ֩,ᄵ߶հݖሑ:/ࠏ߶0,Ӂള෮໌֥/ࠏ߶ാ0bؓႿૄᇕٚσdjഡH1-ݓ࠽൧ӆླ10ຣࡱ;(j=1,2,3,4),ૌॖၛ༵ෘԛ่ࡱࠏ߶ാO(djH2-ݓ࠽൧ӆླ12ຣࡱ;|Hi)(i=1,2,3,4)bཁಖ่ࡱࠏ߶ാ:H3-ݓ࠽൧ӆླ15ຣࡱ;O(dj|Hi)=B(di|Hi)-B(dj|Hi)bH4-ݓ࠽൧ӆླ20ຣࡱ;ႮՎॖ֤ࠏ߶ാіೂі4: ௹ຬ൬ၭمі4 ാі௹ຬ൬ၭم൞Ⴈቋն௹ຬ൬ၭቓູथҦሙᄵ֥ ٚσٚمbᄝૄᇕളӁٚσ༯,ໃট൧ӆླ֥ૄᇕሑ ၭd1d2d3d4ؿള֥ॖିྟၘᆩbؓႿૄᇕٚσdj(j=1,2,3,ۀੱ 4),ૌॖၛ༵ෘԛ่ࡱ൬ၭB(dj|Hi)(i=1,2,3,H1 P(H1)=)bႵH P(H)= B(d1|H1)=500,B(d1|H2)=500,B(d1|H3)=H3 P(H3)=,B(d1|H4)=500;H P(H)=
#80#ଲဝ۽࿐ჽ࿐Бֻ1ज ۴ऌഈіॖၛෘԛ۲ᇕٚσ֥नാ,ࠧ௹ຬ60x1+48x2+30x3[504ാEO(dj)=EOࠧ24x1+24x(d2+15x3[20(2)j|Hi)P(Hi)i=1Ⴕ EO(d1)=@0+@100++6x2+6x3[5@250+@500=245ડቀ(2)ൔ֥x1ax2ax3,ᄝॢࡗᆰ࢘ቕѓ༢ᇏఞEOݺ൞໊Ⴟֻ၂ኊཋ۱૫:60x1+48x2+30x3=(d2)=@20+@0+@150+@400=16350a24x1+24x2+15x3=20ა6x1+6x2+6x3=5֥EO༯ٚ(1),ᆃဢ(2)ൔ֥ࢳູ6x1+6x2+6x3[(d3)=@50+@30+@0+@250=7655,ࠧx1+x2+x3[,ႻႮႿx64=1-(x1+x2+x3),EO(d4)=@100+@80+@50+@0=51Ⴟ൞֤֞x4\1b6๙ݖбࢠॖၛुԛֻඹᇕളӁٚσ֥௹ຬാቋཬ,ၹՎھӌᇅרކ֥ളӁਈႋູ20ຣࡱbൌ࠽ഈ,44 EO(dj)=EO(dj|Hi)P(Hi)=E[B(di|i=1i=1Hi)-B(dj|Hj)]P(Hi)44=EB(di|Hi)P(Hi)-EB(dj|i=1i=1Hi)P(Hi)41 ॢࡗᆰ࢘ቕѓ༢ᇏ૫=EB(di|Hi)P(Hi)-EB(dj)i=ٳ༅ࢲݔೂ༯:1ႮՎॖ,௹ຬ൬ၭቋն֥ളӁٚσᆞݺ൞(1)֒P(H14)>ൈ,EB(d௹ຬࠏ߶ാቋཬ֥ളӁٚσb64)>EB(di)(i=31,2,3),d4ູቋႪٚσ;.3 ਲૹ؇ٳ༅ႮႿᄝथҦൈ۲ᇕሱಖሑԛགྷ֥ۀੱ൞۴ऌ(2)֒P(H14)<ൈ,EB(d4)<EB(di)(i=ݖಀࣜဒܙ࠹ԛট,֥෮ၛ۴ऌᆃဢ֥ۀੱᆴ࠹ෘ6ԛট֥ၭᆴ҂ॖିٳࣚಒॖौb၂֊ۀੱᆴႵ1,2,3),d4҂൞ቋႪٚσ;ਔэ߄1,ٚσd4ॖି߶ാི,ၹՎсྶؓھٚσࣉ(3)֒P(H4)=ൈ,թᄝdi(i=1,2,3),֤ྛਲૹ؇ٳ༅,൮༵ԛٚσd4ູቋႪٚσ֥໗ק6่ࡱbEB(d4)=EB(di),ٚσd4აఃٚσݺߊഡљbP(H1)=x1,P(H2)=x2,P(H3)=x3,ᄵP(H4)=x4=1-(xᄵP1(H4)=ູਢࢸۀੱb1+x2+x3),Ⴟ൞6EB(d1)=500x1+500x2+500x3+500(1-x1-x2-ਲૹ؇ٳ༅ູथҦٚσ֥࿊ᄴิ܂ਔޓն֥ٚx3)=500ь,ᆺေᅧ֥ۀੱᆴ҂ཬႿਢࢸᆴ,ᄵჰٚσಯႵEB(d2)=480x1+600x2+600x3+600(1-x1-x2-ིbഈඍ໙ีᇏ൧ӆ֥ླ൞20ຣࡱ֥ۀੱູx3)=,ႮႿીႵ֮Ⴟਢࢸᆴ1(),෮ၛჰ(d3)=450x1+570x2+750x3+750(1-x1-x2-6x3)=750-300x1-180x2ٚσಯႵིbEB(d4)=400x1+520x2+700x3+1000(1-x1-x2ҕॉ໓ང-x3)=1000-600x1-480x2-300x3ေٚσd4ಯູቋႪٚσ,ᄵႋႵ[1]ᇛۀಸ.ۀੱંაඔ࠹[M].Кࣘ:ᇏݓഅြԛϱEB(d4)\EB(dഠ,)EB(d4)\EB[2]ᅵ࣡,ᠱ.ඔ࿐ࡹଆა൫ဒ(ֻ2ϱ)[M].Кࣘ:ۚ֩(d2)(1)࢝ტԛϱഠ,(d4)\EB(d3)[3]นݓྖ.ۀੱ࠹[M].ӄ:ݱն࿐ԛϱഠ,1991.
ֻ4௹ਃ ᠰ֩:௹ຬᆴႪ߄مᄝఒြളӁڄགथҦᇏ֥ႋႨ#81#EXPECTATIONOPTIMIZATIONMETHODAPPLIEDINPRODUCTIONRISKDECISIONLIANGYing,SONGSu-luo(DepartmentofMathematics,NanyangInstituteofTechnology,Nanyang473004,China)Abstract:Basedonexpectationoptimizationmethod,:Risktypedecision;Expectancymethod;Sensitivityanalysis(上接第73页)SYNTHESISOFSUPERABSORBENTRESINBYPOTATOSTARCHANDSTUDIESONITSEFFECTOFSOILRETENTIONZUOG121uang-ling,XIONGYan,YEHong-yong(,NanyangInstituteofTechnology,Nanyang473004,China;(,NanyangNormalUniversity,Nanyang473061,China)Abstract:,theresultsshowedthatSAreducedwaterlossobviously,:Superabsorbentpolymers;Soilwaterretention;Potatostarch
