2006Π19ꆡퟜ뗚351웚짌튵퇐뺿ꆡCOMMERCIALRESEARCH컄헂뇠뫅:1001-148X(2006)19-0026-05짏쫐늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾뗄쳘헷퇐뺿헅ꆡ춮,뫘ꆡ떤(쳬뷲듳톧맜샭톧풺,쳬뷲ꆡ300072)햪튪:퓋폃ANOVA뫍Logit믘맩랽램첽쟳컒맺늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾쟸뇰폚럇쒿뇪릫쮾뗄닆컱쳘헷,늢뛔벸훖뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄늢릺뚯믺ퟶ돶볬퇩ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷,쳦뮻컞킧싊뗄맜샭닣샭싛뫍붻틗돉놾샭싛뛔늢릺짏쫐릫쮾뗄뚯믺뻟폐뷏잿뷢쫍솦,폫듋춬쪱뮹폐늿럖늢릺돶폚춶믺뚯믺ꆣ맘볼듊:늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾;Logit쒣탍;닆컱쳘헷;늢릺뚯믺훐춼럖샠뫅:F27616ꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:ATheCharacteristicsofTakeoverTargetsinChinaStockMarketsZHANGTong,HEDan(SchoolofManagement,TianjinUniversity,Tianjin300072,China)Abstract:Thispaperidentifiesthecharacteristicsoftakeovertargetsthatisdifferentfromnon-targetcompaniesbymeansofANOVAandLogitregression,andexaminessomecross-sectionaltakeovermotivations1Theconclusionisthatthereplace2mentofinefficientmanagementandtransactioncosttheorycanstronglyexplainthemotivationofthetakeoverlistedcompa2nies1Atthesametime,someofthetakeovershappenforspeculation1Keywords:takeovertargets;logitmodel;financialcharacteristic;takeovermotivationꆡꆡ튻ꆢ틽퇔뫍컄쿗ퟛ쫶릫쮾뗄볦늢쫕릺풽살풽욵랱,맦쒣튲죕틦삩듳,헢튲뷼쪮쓪살,쯦ퟅ컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄톸쯙랢햹,짏쫐컼틽쇋늻짙톧헟뛔릫쮾뗄늢릺ퟶ쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿ꆣ뛸쪶뇰폐뿉쓜놻늢릺뗄짏쫐릫쮾뗄튻냣쳘헷,늻떫뛔춶ꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2006-02-14헟뗄횤좯춶ퟩ뫏닟싔폐쪵볊볛횵,뮹뿉틔볬퇩막욱ퟷ헟볲뷩:헅춮(1968-),얮,쳬뷲죋,늩쪿,쫐뎡킧싊ힴ뿶,룼쫇돉캪쪵컱뷧뫍샭싛뷧쯹맘힢뗄죈쳬뷲듳톧맜샭톧풺뢱뷌쫚ꆣ뗣ꆣ믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훺쿮쒿,쿮쒿뇠컷랽컄쿗뛔늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾쳘헷뗄퇐뺿훷튪듓솽룶뫅:70301006ꆣ랽쏦ퟅ쫖ꆣ튻랽쏦,폐킩톧헟쫔춼춨맽쪶뇰쒿뇪릫쮾뷡릹램,헫뛔뷩폚잰솽헟횮볤,탨뗷헻웤뷡릹뗄쳘뚨닎뾼컄쿗:닺튵ꆣ햽뫳죕놾닺튵뷡릹뗄뇤뮯듳쳥뺭샺쇋죽룶뷗\[1\]ꆡ쏧뚫짽1쾵춳뿆톧뺫튪\[M\1]놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳뛎:1945ꆪ1955쓪캪믖뢴ꆢ뗷헻뷗뛎,1956ꆪ1973쓪톧돶냦짧,19981캪훘ꆢ뮯릤튵뮯뷗뛎,1973쓪틔뫳캪쿲횪쪶(믲벼\[2\]ꆡ췵폪쳯1뿘훆싛ꆤ탅쾢싛ꆤ쾵춳뿆톧폫헜톧\[M\1]쫵)쏜벯탍릤튵뇤뫍볓잿뗚죽닺튵뷗뛎ꆣ죕놾춨맽놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧,19861헢킩닺튵헾닟쮳샻쪵쿖쇋짺닺튪쯘뗄훘탂ퟩ뫏뫍닺튵\[3\]ꆡ훜틣1싛탅쾢쾵춳벰웤릹돉튪쯘뗄돉뎤\[J\1]쟩뷡릹뗄뗷헻ꆣ죧맻붨솢뗄뺭볃헾닟늻쫊뫏폚놾맺닺튵놨뿆톧,1994,(4)1쾵춳,퓲떼훂닺튵쾵춳뗄폅뮯뫍짽벶쫜ퟨꆣ죧,2001\[4\]ꆡ놴쯾샊럆1튻냣쾵춳싛\[J\1]ퟔ좻뿆톧헜톧컊쳢쓪낢룹춢놬랢퇏훘뗄뷰죚캣믺,쯦뫳뺭볃뒦폚늻컈뚨듔뾯,1979,(1-2)1뗄ힴ첬,웤퓰죎훷튪퓚폚낢룹춢헾뢮붨솢뗄횻힢훘뛔\[5\]ꆡ잮톧즭,탭맺횾,췵쫙퓆1ퟩ횯맜샭뗄벼쫵ꆪ쾵췢뾪럅ꆢ뫶쫓쳡룟짺닺튪쯘짺닺싊뗄뺭볃헾닟,떼훂춳릤돌\[N\1]컄믣놨,1978-09-271뺭볃퓋틔뷨탂햮뫍뮹뻉햮캪훡탄,맺볒즥쪧쇋늿럖\[6\]ꆡ췢맺닺튵뷡릹뗷헻웴쪾\[EBΠOL\]1http:ΠΠwww.뗄뺭볃ퟔ훷좨ꆣ틲듋,뫢솿컒맺뺭볃헾닟뗄믹놾틀뻝,2003-01-141뻍쫇튪뾴룃헾닟쫇럱랢믓쇋컒맺닺튵쾵춳쓚짺닺튪쯘\[7\]ꆡ샮퓃1닺튵뺭볃톧\[M\1]놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶뗄뇈뷏폅쫆ꆢ쫇럱폐샻폚컒맺닺튵쾵춳돖탸쿲룟닣듎냦짧,19981랽쿲퇝뷸ꆣ(퓰죎뇠벭:쾯쿾뫧)
ퟜ뗚351웚헅ꆡ춮:짏쫐늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾뗄쳘헷퇐뺿ꆤ2ꆡ7ꆤ뗄쳘헷살뷒쪾틾님퓚듳솿뿘훆좨틆놳뫳뗄훷튪쒿뗄1998-1999쓪볤랢짺뗄짏쫐릫쮾볦늢쫕릺뷸탐쇋쪵횤쯹퓚;쇭튻랽쏦,늻짙톧헟퓲쾣췻헒돶룼볓뇪ힼ뮯뗄럖컶뫍볬퇩ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷,막좨뷏캪럖즢(뗚튻듳막뚫쳘헷,듓뛸뿉틔릹붨풤닢짏쫐릫쮾뿉쓜놻쫕릺뗄쒣돖막뇈샽뗍폚30%)ꆢퟜ막놾뷏킡(욽뻹115틚막,탍,평폚쒿뇪릫쮾막뚫퓚늢릺탻룦죕횮잰튻냣뿉틔믱캪짏쫐릫쮾욽뻹쫽뗄65%)ꆢ쎿막뺻닺뫍쫐뺻싊뷏뗃뎬뛮놾쫕틦,쯹틔떱쒣탍뗄풤닢쓜솦뷏잿쪱,춶뗍뗄릫쮾뻟폐뷏룟뗄놻쫕릺룅싊ꆣ쯤좻쯹뗃떽뗄맀볆헟횻튪쳡잰릺싲룃막욱뻍쓜뗃떽뎬뛮믘놨ꆣ쒣탍뛔늢릺뗄랢짺폐뷏잿뗄뷢쫍쓜솦,떫컞램좡뗃싺뛔폚릹퓬쒣탍쓜럱풤닢짏쫐릫쮾돉캪쒿뇪릫쮾,틢뗄풤닢뷡맻ꆣ릶뾪뫬뫍마캰(2003)톡좡쇋컒맺컷랽톧헟췹췹뗃돶듳쿠뺶춥뗄뷡싛ꆣJ1KimballDietrich2001쓪짏쫐릫쮾릺늢믮뚯캪퇹놾,샻폃Logit믘맩붨뫍EricSorensen(1984)짹돆웤퓋폃Logit릹퓬뗄쒣탍솢풤닢쒣탍,뛔쒿뇪릫쮾뗄풤닢ힼ좷싊캪77133%ꆣ풤닢쒿뇪릫쮾폐90%뗄ힼ좷싊ꆣJohnJ1Cheh뫍Randy뇊헟뮹랢쿖,쒿뇪릫쮾훊솿웕뇩뗍쿂,짏쫐릫쮾뿘훆S1Weinberg(1999)퓋폃죋릤짱뺭췸싧뗄랽램뗃돶쇋좨뗄돶쫛죔좻쫇캪뒦훃늻솼닺,뮹쎻폐놻뾴ퟷ헻뫏샠쯆뗄뷡싛ꆣWalter1RichardM(1994)춨맽뛔1981-쓚췢풴ꆢ쳡룟뫋탄뺺헹솦뗄쫖뛎ꆣ쇨뒺뮪뗈1984쓪뗄쏀맺늢릺낸샽뗄럖컶죏캪떱잰돉놾믡볆쫽(2005)춨맽ANOVAꆢLogit믘맩춳볆랽램,뛔2003쓪뻝쓜폐킧풤닢쒿뇪릫쮾ꆣ폫듋쿠랴,Castagna뫍Ma2짏쫐늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿,랢쿖쒿뇪릫쮾뻟tolcsy(1985)톡폃쇋펯샻쓜솦ꆢ쇷뚯탔ꆢ뢺햮싊뗈ퟷ폐맜샭킧싊뗍쿂ꆢ닆컱룜룋룟ꆢ쇷뚯탔뗍떫닮틬늻쿔닢솿횸뇪,뷡맻뇭쏷샻폃닆컱횸뇪뛔20쫀볍70쓪듺훸ꆢ뺭펪랢햹쓜솦뗍뗄닆컱쳘헷,뛸컞뎥뮮늦뗄쒿뇪늢릺쒿뇪뗄풤닢늢늻뻟폐폐킧탔ꆣDonaldE1Sorensen릫쮾쟸뇰폚럇쒿뇪릫쮾뗄닆컱쳘헷늻쏷쿔ꆣ(2000)죏캪닆컱뇈싊뛔90쓪듺뗄늢릺쒿뇪뗄풤닢킧쯤좻틔짏벸캻ퟷ헟뚼퇘폃쇋Logit믘맩럖컶뛔컒맻늻뫃,ힼ좷싊횻쓜듯떽59147%,떫럖탐튵살뾼싇맺늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾뗄쳘헷ퟷ쇋럖컶,좴쎻폐뛔늢릺짏쫐퓲킧맻튪뫃뗃뛠,욽뻹쓜듯떽70%ퟳ폒ꆣPaulBarnes릫쮾뗄짮닣뚯믺ퟶ돶뷢쫍ꆣ샮짆쏱뫍돂폱(2004)(2000)럖뇰퓋폃에뇰쪽럖컶뫍Logit랽램뛔펢맺뗄쒿쯤좻듓릫쮾뗄닆컱쳘헷돶랢붨솢쇋늻춬훖샠훘ퟩ틽훂뇪릫쮾톡퓱ퟷ쇋볬퇩,뗃돶뷡싛쫇춨맽샺쪷돉놾믡볆뗄쫐뎡랴펦뗄풤닢쒣탍,볬퇩쇋믹폚ퟩ횯놾ꆢ닆컱쫽뻝ퟷ풤닢컞램믱뗃뎬뛮믘놨ꆣ풴킭춬뫍쫕릺돉놾쯹쳡돶뗄컥룶볙짨,늢뗃돶뿘훆평폚톡퓱뗄랽램쒣탍ꆢ쫽뻝뗄늻춬믡떼훂뛔쒿뇪좨틆샠훘ퟩ럻뫏ퟩ횯놾샭싛뫍닆컱풴킭춬샭싛릫쮾쫇럱뻟폐뿉풤볻탔닺짺뫜듳뗄럖웧,떫춨맽쪵횤뗄뷡싛,떫웤훷튪쫇닉폃쫂볾퇐뺿램뫍믡볆퇐뺿램ꆣ볬퇩뿉틔뷢쫍늢릺뗄짮닣뚯믺좴쫇뗃떽듳뛠쫽톧헟뗄뇊헟쓢뛔컒맺막욱쫐뎡쒿뇪릫쮾뗄쳘헷쳡릩뷸튻늽뗄죏뿉ꆣPalepu1KrishnaG(1986)뛔쏀맺1971-1979쓪쪵횤럖컶,늢첽쟳늢릺짏쫐릫쮾뗄뚯믺쯹퓚ꆣ횮볤랢짺뗄늢릺쫂볾볬퇩뫳죏캪,쒣탍뛔늢릺랢짺뗄뛾ꆢ늢릺뚯믺샭싛뚯믺폐뷏잿뗄뷢쫍쓜솦,떫쓑틔풤닢늢릺뗄랢짺,쮵맺쓚췢톧헟뷸탐쇋뫜뛠맘폚볦늢쫕릺뗄샭싛뗄첽쏷뻟폐쿔훸뷢쫍쓜솦뗄쒣탍늻틢캶ퟅ뿉틔폃폚풤닢ꆣ쳖,뇊헟뷡뫏컒맺횤좯쫐뎡뗄쳘뗣쳡돶컥훖뻟폐듺뇭ChaoChen뫍RobertSu(1997)뛔쏀맺1980-1990쓪탔뗄늢릺뚯믺샭싛ꆣ평폚톡퓱쓜좷쟐뗘랴펳룷훖샭싛뗄뿧맺늢릺쒿뇪뫍놻맺쓚릫쮾늢릺뗄쒿뇪틔벰럇쒿뇪뗄룷룶뇤솿쫇쓜럱ퟶ뫃놾퇐뺿뗄맘볼,뇊헟닎뾼쇋듳릫쮾ퟷ쇋뛔뇈볬퇩,쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻뇭쏷벼쫵ꆢ쇷뚯탔솿맺쓚췢뗄컄쿗쪵횤쒣탍훐뗄튻쾵쇐뇤솿,톡퓱웤훐뫍펯샻탔쫇맺쓚췢릫쮾톡퓱늢릺쒿뇪쪱뾼싇뗄뻶뚨탔ퟮ뻟쿠맘탔뗄벸룶럖뇰ퟷ캪컥훖늢릺샭싛뗄뷢쫍뇤틲쯘,듓뛸횧돖쇋쿠펦뗄늢릺뚯믺샭싛ꆣMikeCude솿ꆣ뫍RakeshDuggal(2000)톡좡쇋1987-1991쓪뗄343(튻)쳦뮻컞킧싊뗄맜샭닣샭싛룶퇹놾(웤훐108룶쒿뇪릫쮾),퇘폃쇋Palepu뗄랽룃샭싛죏캪죧맻릫쮾뗄맜샭닣늻쓜돤럖랢믓웤뺭램릹퓬쇋죽룶쒣탍뛔쇹훖늢릺샭싛뷸탐볬퇩,뷡맻뇭펪잱솦듓뛸ퟮ듳뮯릫쮾뗄쫐뎡볛횵,퓲쫕릺룃릫쮾늢쏷,뺭탐튵쳘쫢럖늼쳘헷뗷헻뫳뗄쒣탍풤닢뷡맻폫쯄쳦뮻컞킧싊뗄맜샭닣붫믡믱뗃잱퓚뗄쫕틦ꆣ뇊헟톡좡훖샭싛(맦쒣볙쮵ꆢ맜샭컞킧볙쮵ꆢ퓶뎤뫍풴늻욥뺻닺쫕틦싊(ROE)ퟷ캪룃샭싛뗄뷢쫍뇤솿,룹뻝엤볙쮵ꆢ탐튵늨뚯볙쮵)쿠컇뫏,뛸쟒뗷헻뫳뗄쒣탍룃샭싛풤웚뻟폐풽뗍뗄ROE뗄릫쮾풽폐뿉쓜놻늢릺ꆣ뗄풤닢쓜솦쿔훸룟폚캴뗷헻쒣탍ꆣNuriaAlcalde뫍(뛾)퓶뎤풴늻욽뫢샭싛ManuelEspitia(2003)틔컷냠퇀1991-1997쓪뗄늢릺쒳킩릫쮾좱랦ퟣ릻뗄풴살횧돖웤룟쯙퓶뎤,뛸쫂볾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,퓋폃떥틲쯘랽닮럖컶뫍Logit쒣탍쇭튻킩릫쮾폐럡뢻뗄풴뛸늻뗃웤폃,헢솽샠릫쮾닎뛔룃쪱웚뗄늢릺뚯믺ퟷ쇋볬퇩,뇭쏷컷냠퇀뗄릫쮾늢폫늢릺훘ퟩ뻍쓜쪵쿖춶믺믡뫍쓚늿풴뗄뮥늹,뚼릺늢럇돶폚쫐뎡돍랣ꆢ춶믺뗈풭틲,쿠랴,붻틗돉놾붫듸살놾쫐뎡짏뗄뎬뎣쫕틦ꆣ틲듋,펵폐듳솿풴틲쯘뛔쒿뇪릫쮾뗄톡퓱뻟폐훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ좴좱짙춶믺믡뗄릫쮾뫍폐듳솿춶믺믡좴좱랦풴쒿잰퓚맺쓚,틑폐튻킩톧헟쳖싛컒맺횤좯쫐뎡늢뗄릫쮾붫룼폐뿉쓜돉캪쒿뇪릫쮾ꆣ뇊헟뚨틥튻룶탩쓢릺쒿뇪뗄릫쮾쳘헷틲쯘,떫훷튪쫇튻냣뗄볲떥춳볆뫍뇤솿(IMB)살듺뇭룃샭싛,늢붫뻟폐룟퓶뎤(GRO)맩쓉,헦헽쓜폫컷랽퇐뺿뷓맬뗄좴늻뛠ꆣ헔폂뫍훬커-뗍쇷뚯탔(LIQ)-룟룜룋쮮욽(LEV)ퟩ뫏ꋙ틔벰쿩(2000)닉폃Logit쳵볾룅싊쒣탍뛔컒맺A막쫐뎡뗍퓶뎤-룟쇷뚯탔-뗍룜룋쮮욽ퟩ뫏뗄릫쮾뢳횵캪
ꆤ2ꆡ8ꆤ짌튵퇐뺿2006Π191,웤쯻샠탍ퟩ뫏뢳횵캪0ꆣ킡(CS)뫍쫇럱뻟폐랢탐탂막룱(INS)쫇볬퇩룃(죽)볛횵뗍맀샭싛뚯믺뗄솽룶뇤솿,늢볙뚨쇷춨엌풽듳틔벰뻟폐랢탐탂룃샭싛죏캪떱쒿뇪릫쮾막욱뗄쫐뎡볛룱틲캪쒳훖막룱뗄릫쮾뛔폚쫕릺릫쮾룼뻟폐컼틽솦ꆣ풭틲뛸쎻쓜랴펳웤헦쪵볛횵믲잱퓚볛횵,믲헟쎻폐랴(컥)붻틗돉놾펳돶웤퓚웤쯻맜샭헟쫖훐뗄볛횵쪱,늢릺믮뚯뻍믡랢붻틗돉놾쯤좻늻쫇쟽쪹릫쮾뷸탐늢릺뗄횱뷓뺭볃짺ꆣ웳튵볛횵Π놾헋쏦볛횵(EVΠIC)쫇룃샭싛뗄ퟮ뚯믺,좴쫇쫕릺릫쮾퓚ퟶ돶쫕릺뻶닟쪱탨튪뾼싇뗄훘뫃뗄쳦듺뇤솿,쟒뻟폐뷏뗍뗄EVΠIC뗄릫쮾풽뿉쓜놻튪돉놾틲쯘ꆣ짏쫐릫쮾맦쒣(SIZE)뫍쯹폐좨뷡릹쫕릺ꆣ(PRS)퓲쫇펰쿬쫕릺돉놾틔벰늢릺돉릦뿉쓜탔뗄뇤(쯄)싲뿇짏쫐믱좡죚뒰뿚솿,짏쫐릫쮾뗄맦쒣풽킡,막좨벯훐뛈풽뗍,퓲쫕릺퓚컒맺짏쫐룱쿠뛔살쮵뮹쫇훖쾡좱풴,틲뗄쓑뛈풽킡,쿠펦뗄쫕릺돉놾튲뷏뗍,틲듋룼죝틗돉듋,폐킩럇짏쫐릫쮾쾣췻춨맽릺싲짏쫐릫쮾뷸죫놾캪쫕릺쒿뇪ꆣ쫐뎡,듓뛸뿉틔삩듳죚쟾뗀ꆣ짏쫐릫쮾쇷춨막뗄듳뇭1컥훖늢릺샭싛뗄뇤솿쏨쫶샭싛볙쮵뇤솿볆쯣풤웚럻뫅쳦뮻컞킧싊뗄맜샭닣뺻닺쫕틦싊(ROE)뺻샻죳Π막뚫좨틦-퓶뎤풴늻욽뫢샭싛퓶뎤탔(GRO)훷펪튵컱퓶뎤싊+쇷뚯탔(LIQ)쇷뚯뇈싊?룜룋(LEV)닺좨뇈싊-퓶뎤풴늻욽뫢탔(IMB)늻욽뫢,퓲=1;럱퓲=0+볛횵뗍맀볛횵뗍맀돌뛈(EVΠIC)웳튵볛횵Π놾헋쏦볛횵-싲뿇짏쫐믱좡죚뒰뿚쇷춨막뗄듳킡(CS)쇷춨막놾막쫽+ꆡ쫇럱뻟폐랢탐탂막룱(INS)폐=1;컞=0+붻틗돉놾맦쒣(SIZE)ퟜ닺헋쏦볛횵-ꆡ쯹폐좨뷡릹(PRS)뗚튻듳막뚫쯹햼막좨뇈샽-ꆡꆡ죽ꆢ퇹놾톡좡뫍퇐뺿랽램샠퇐뺿쯹뫶쫓뗄튻뗣ꆣ뗷헻뫳뗄뇤솿릫쪽죧쿂:(튻)퇹놾톡좡Di=(Rij-N)j/ꛒj뇊헟퇐뺿뗄뛔쿳쫇짏쫐릫쮾뗄볦늢쫕릺,쪵볊짏Rij=탐튵j쓚릫쮾i뗄닆컱뇈싊쫇뿘훆좨쫕릺(벴춨맽쫕벯뻟폐뿘훆좨뗘캻뗄막좨,Nj=탐튵j닆컱횸뇪뗄뻹횵듓뛸믱뗃릫쮾뿘훆뗘캻)ꆣ틲듋,톡좡2004쓪쓚랢짺ꛒ뿘훆좨죃뗄짏쫐릫쮾캪늢릺퇹놾,쇏살풴폚ꆶ훐j=탐튵j닆컱횸뇪뗄뇪ힼ닮맺횤좯놨ꆷꆰDi=뺭탐튵뗷헻뫳릫쮾i뗄닆컱뇈싊2004쓪짏쫐릫쮾훘ퟩ쫂쿮ퟜ샀ꆱ,늢닎뾼쇋쿠펦릫쮾릫룦ꆢ쓪놨ꆣ캪럻뫏뇊헟퇐뺿쒿뗄(죽)쒣탍랽램,쒿뇪릫쮾탨싺ퟣ틔쿂쳵볾퓚퇐뺿훐,틲뇤솿Yit쫇튻룶뛾풪탩쓢뇤솿,틑:(1)뿘훆좨죃횻냼삨뗚튻듳막뚫랢짺뇤룼믲헟릫룦훐뗄막좨죃쫽듳폚뺭랢짺뿘훆좨죃뗄릫쮾놻뢳횵캪1,럱퓲캪0ꆣ뛔20%뗄릫쮾(몬폚헢훖뛾풪톡퓱퇐뺿춨뎣폐에뇰쪽럖컶뫍싟벭쮹뗙2004쓪잩쫰킭틩,2005쓪6퓂잰막좨죃쪵쪩췪뇏);(2)쫇퓚쫐뎡ퟔ평톡퓱쿂맺볒막믲램(Logit)쒣탍솽훖랽램,떫쫇Logit쒣탍평폚웤늻탨튪죋막랢짺뗄폐뎥죃퇏룱뗄뛠풪헽첬럖늼볙짨,뛸쟒웤볲떥뗄춳볆볬퇩룼,틲듋쳞돽쇋컞뎥뮮늦ꆢ쮾램엄싴ꆢ램풺에뻶ꆢ쒸릫쮾룄훆ꆢ컼쫕뫏늢ꆢ햮막뗈탎뷼쯆폚믘맩럖컶,쯹틔룼캪듳볒웕뇩뷓쫜ꆣ쒣탍뇭쪾쪽뗄쒿뇪릫쮾캪:;(3)쳞돽쯹쫴탐튵캪ퟛ뫏샠뗄짏쫐릫쮾;(4)놻늢릺잰튻쓪뗄쫽뻝췪헻ꆣퟮ뫳뗃떽살ퟔP(i,t)=P(Yit=1Πx(i,t-1))=1Π\[1+-ꛂx(i,t-1)e]15룶탐튵뗄늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾퇹놾39볒,춬쪱듓헢15룶탐튵훐럖뇰쯦믺돩좡폫쒿뇪릫쮾뗈솿뗄럇쒿뇪짏쫐릫웤훐:x(i,t-1)캪쏨쫶릫쮾i퓚늢릺탻룦잰쮾ퟷ캪닎헕ퟩꆣퟮ뫳릲뗃떽퇹놾ퟜ쫽캪튻쓪뿉닢뛈쳘헷뗄튻ퟩ쇐쿲솿,ꛂ캪ퟔ뇤솿x(i,t78볒ꆣ(뛾)쫽뻝뒦샭-1)뗄믘맩쾵쫽쿲솿,P(i,t)캪릫쮾i퓚쪱뛎t뇊헟쯹폃쫽뻝좡ퟔ늢릺쫂볾랢짺잰튻쓪뗄짏쫐릫쓚놻쫕릺뗄룅싊ꆣ쮾쓪놨쯄ꆢ쪵횤뷡맻뫍럖컶,쫽뻝살풴폚쳬죭뷰죚럖컶1NET쫽뻝뿢ꆣ춨뎣쫕릺릫쮾톡퓱쒿뇪릫쮾쪱뚼튪퓚탐튵쓚뷸탐뇈뷏(튻)ANOVA랽닮럖컶,틲듋캪쇋쓜릻뛔쯹폐퇹놾릫쮾뗄닆컱쫽뻝좫쏦뷸탐뫡뇭2쇐돶쇋쒿뇪릫쮾뫍럇쒿뇪릫쮾솽ퟩ퇹놾뗄닆쿲뛔뇈컱횸뇪뗄쏨쫶탔춳볆솿,틔벰뛔솽ퟩ퇹놾뻹횵뗄닮틬,닉폃뗄쫽뻝(돽탩쓢뇤솿췢)뚼튪뺭맽탐튵쳘쫢럖늼뗷헻,벴붫웤뇪ힼ뮯쿔훸탔ퟶ돶쇋볬퇩ꆣ,헢튲쫇맺쓚듳뛠쫽춬
ퟜ뗚351웚헅ꆡ춮:짏쫐늢릺쒿뇪릫쮾뗄쳘헷퇐뺿ꆤ2ꆡ9ꆤ뇭2쒿뇪릫쮾뫍럇쒿뇪릫쮾닆컱횸뇪뗄ANOVA럖컶뇤ꆡ솿쒿뇪릫쮾럇쒿뇪릫쮾ANOVA럖컶MeanStd1DMeanStd1DFSig1뺻닺쫕틦싊-01351492146843013155601357712178901099훷펪튵컱퓶뎤싊-01047450183309012347911060291170901195쇷뚯뇈싊-0106260191731-0114080171940117601676닺좨뇈싊01352342134823-010232301558710194401334퓶뎤풴늻욽뫢탔012301427012801456012630161볛횵뗍맀돌뛈01414131145947-010155301531132198501088쇷춨막놾-01435060151016011896411577295153801021쫇럱폐랢탐탂막룱011013070123014272131701132ퟜ닺헋쏦볛횵-0144320140982017016119572912178101001뗚튻듳막뚫쯹햼막럝-0124177019558901169410194666316430106ꆡꆡ듓뇭2뿉틔뾴떽,퓚헢솽ퟩ퇹놾닆컱횸뇪뻹횵뛔탔풽듳,쫕릺랽뻍뿉틔틔풽짙뗄쪱볤뫍돉놾듓놾쫐뇈훐,폐컥룶횸뇪뻟폐춳볆틢틥짏뗄쿔훸늻춬,웤훐뎡횱뷓릺싲떽룃릫쮾뗄막좨ꆣ뛸쟒,쇷춨엌풽듳,춨횻폐쇷춨막놾뫍ퟜ닺헋쏦볛횵퓚5%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽맽랢탐탂막쯹쓜돯벯뗄뷰튲풽뛠,헢뛔쓇킩쾣췻쫕쿂쿔훸ꆣ럇쒿뇪릫쮾뗄ퟜ닺헋쏦볛횵뇪ힼ뮯쫽뻝뻹릺짏쫐릫쮾믱뗃죚쟾뗀뗄쫕릺랽살쮵룼뻟컼틽솦ꆣ횵튪풶풶룟폚쒿뇪릫쮾,뇭쏷릫쮾뗄맦쒣풽킡,쫕릺좻뛸,듓뇭2랢쿖,쒿뇪릫쮾뗄쇷춨막놾좴쿔훸킡폚룃릫쮾뗄뿘훆좨뗄죚탨쟳풽킡,쫕릺뗄쓑뛈튲풽럇쒿뇪릫쮾,짵훁,쒿뇪릫쮾뇈웰럇쒿뇪릫쮾룼좱랦킡ꆣ춬쪱쒿뇪릫쮾뗄뗚튻듳막뚫쯹햼막럝뇈샽튲쿔훸랢탐탂막뗄룱,뇊헟죏캪헢폫컒맺늢릺훘ퟩ뗄쫐뎡킡폚럇쒿뇪릫쮾,틲캪릫쮾뗄막좨풽럖즢,튪돉캪룃뮯돌뛈늻릻폐맘,돶쿖헢훖쿠뗄쟩뿶늢늻쓜쮵쏷퓚릫쮾뗄뿘막막뚫쯹탨쫕릺뗄막럝뗄뻸뛔쫽솿튲뻍풽컒맺늢릺헟랴뛸욫뫃쇷춨엌킡ꆢ늻뻟랢탐탂막룱뗄짙,쯹탨뷰뗄뻸뛔뛮뻍뷏짙,뢶돶뗄쫕릺돉놾풽릫쮾,뛸쫇평폚헢샠릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧튻냣뷏닮,튲좱뗍ꆣ헢뚼펡횤쇋붻틗돉놾샭싛쳡돶뗄맦쒣풽킡ꆢ막좨랦죚쟾뗀,웤풭뿘막막뚫닅폐뿉쓜풸틢돶쫛뿘막좨ꆣ풽캪럖즢뗄릫쮾뛔쫕릺랽풽뻟폐컼틽솦뗄맛뗣ꆣ(뛾)Logit믘맩럖컶럇쒿뇪릫쮾뗄뇪ힼ뮯뺻닺쫕틦싊튪뇈쒿뇪릫쮾뇭3쇐쪾쇋폃뛾풪logit쒣탍뗄믘맩뷡맻:B쫇룷룟01667,쮵쏷쒿뇪릫쮾웕뇩뺭펪튵벨뷏닮,맜샭킧룶뇤솿뗄쾵쫽,쾵쫽캪헽뇭쪾쯦ퟅ뇤솿횵뗄퓶볓릫쮾싊뗍쿂,헢튻뗣뮹랴펳퓚쒿뇪릫쮾훷펪튵컱퓶뎤싊뗍돉캪쫕릺쒿뇪뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳,캪뢺퓲쿠랴;뇤솿뗄춳폚럇쒿뇪릫쮾(쯤좻뻹횵쿠닮늻쿔훸),틲듋,쫕릺볆쿔훸탔폃Wald춳볆솿살볬닢;Exp(B)튲쫇움볛헟죏캪헆뿘헢샠릫쮾뗄뿘훆좨뫳늢룄짆웤맜샭쮮욽짵룷룶뇤솿훘튪탔뗄튻룶몯쫽,쯼닢솿떱룷뇤솿뇤뚯튻훁룼뮻풭맜샭닣,붫믡믱뗃풤웚뗄쫕틦ꆣ떥캻쪱,믺믡뇈(odds)piΠ(1-p)i쿠펦뇤뚯뗄듳내헕컷랽샭싛,릫쮾뗄쇷춨엌풽듳,퓲막럝쇷뚯킡ꆣ뇭3Logit쒣탍맀볆뷡맻StepBS1E1WalddfSig1Exp(B)ROE-31063116143160210105801047GRO-01013013040100210196701987LIQ01200014100123810162611222LEV01395016750134210155911484IMB01070017990100810193011073EVIC11360018632148610111531898CS-01142017100104010184101867INS-01043018560100310196001958SIZE-11260016893134410106701284PRS-01217013150147310149101805Constant01397014940164510142211487ꆡꆡa1Variable(s)enteredonstep1:ROE,GRO,LIQ,LEV,IMB,EVIC,CS,INS,SIZE,PRS1ꆡꆡ룃쒣탍뗄ꆰ-2Loglikelihoodꆱ횵캪77147,쒣탍ퟔ평뛈캪10퓚뾨랽뇭훐1%뗄쇙뷧횵231209,맊듋쒣뗄쓢뫍돌뛈뷏뫃,뛸뾨랽쯆좻춳볆솿캪301661,듳폚탍퓚1%뗄쮮욽쿂듯떽쿔훸ꆣ
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