ꆡ놣쿕퇐뺿ꆡ2009쓪뗚4웚탐튵맛달INSURANCESTUDIESꆡꆡ2009ꆡ잿훆놣쿕쓜럱쳡룟놣쿕쫐뎡킧싊럖컶훜몣헤ꆡ돂뇼헽(쟥뮪듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,놱뺩100084)[햪ꆡ튪]ꆡ놾컄틔짧믡뢣샻캪뫢솿놣쿕쫐뎡킧싊뗄뇪ힼ,럖컶쇋쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쫇럱폐훺폚놣쿕쫐뎡킧싊뗄쳡룟ꆣ컄헂쫗쿈횤쏷쇋퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄놣쿕쫐뎡훐듦퓚ퟅ쫐뎡쪧쇩쿖쿳;좻뫳춨맽뇈뷏쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕잰뫳짧믡뢣샻뗄닮틬,뗃돶뷡싛:쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕폐훺폚짧믡뢣샻뗄룄짆,듓뛸뿉틔쳡룟놣쿕쫐뎡킧싊ꆣ[맘볼듊]ꆡ탅쾢늻뛔돆;잿훆놣쿕;짧믡뢣샻;쫐뎡킧싊[훐춼럖샠뫅][컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1004-3306(2009)04-0019-05ꆡꆡ쒳킩놣쿕닺욷죧퓰죎놣쿕뻟폐쏷쿔뗄헽췢늿탔,헢샠놣쿕늻뷶쓜쪹놻놣쿕죋믱뗃뺭볃놣헏,뛸쟒쓜룸놣쿕릺싲헟횮췢뗄웤쯻죋듸살샻틦ꆣ퓰죎놣쿕쫇틔놻놣쿕죋뗄쏱쫂엢뎥퓰죎캪놣쿕뇪뗄뗄놣쿕ꆣ웳튵ꆢ췅쳥ꆢ볒춥믲룶죋퓚듓쫂룷쿮짺닺튵컱믮뚯믲죕뎣짺믮훐,평폚쫨뫶ꆢ맽쪧뗈풭틲퓬돉뛔쯻죋뗄쯰몦,룹뻝램싉믲웵풼펦뛔쫜몦죋돐떣뗄뺭볃엢뎥퓰죎쪱,죧맻춶놣쇋폐맘퓰죎놣쿕,뻍뿉틔평놣쿕릫쮾뢺퓰엢뎥ꆣ평듋뿉틔뾴돶,퓰죎놣쿕춨맽뛔놻놣쿕죋쯹탨돐떣뗄뺭볃엢뎥퓰죎뗄늹뎥,볤뷓뗘놣헏쇋쫜몦죋뗄샻틦,쪹쯻쏇쓜뇈뷏쮳샻뗘뗃떽엢뎥,뺡뿬믖뢴짺믮믲짺닺ꆣ퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄놣쿕쫐뎡짏,평폚쓦톡퓱쿖쿳뗄웕뇩듦퓚,믡쪹쫐뎡훐뗄늿럖쿻럑헟,쳘뇰쫇뗍럧쿕쿻럑헟릺싲늻떽좫뛮놣쿕ꆣ틲듋,퓚랢짺놣쿕쫂맊뫳,틲캪쯰쪧뗃늻떽좫늿늹뎥뛸냑쿠맘돉놾볞룸쯻죋믲짧믡ꆣ헢튻랽쏦퓶볓쇋좫짧믡뗄럧쿕돉놾,쇭튻랽쏦튲쪹쫐뎡풴엤훃듯늻떽엁샛췐ퟮ폅,틲뛸탨튪헾뢮뷸탐튻뚨돌뛈뗄룉풤ꆣ캪쿻돽믲늿럖쿻돽쓦톡퓱쿖쿳뗄펰쿬,춬쪱놣횤춶놣죋뛔쒳킩쿕훖뗄릺싲솿쓜듯떽짧믡뷏병뗄쮮욽,뫜뛠맺볒뚼냑쿠맘뗄퓰죎놣쿕죧횰튵퓰죎놣쿕ꆢ릫훚퓰죎놣쿕ꆢ믺뚯뎵솾뗚죽헟퓰죎쿕뗈쇐죫잿훆놣쿕뗄랶캧ꆣ컒맺튲폚2006쓪7퓂1죕뾪쪼,쪵쪩쇋믺뚯뎵붻춨쫂맊퓰죎잿훆놣쿕ꆣ쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쫇럱쓜쳡룟놣쿕쫐뎡킧싊,튻횱쫇놣쿕볠맜뺭볃톧퇐뺿뗄훷튪컊쳢횮튻,떫쒿잰뮹좱랦폐솦뗄샭싛ퟴ횤ꆣ듓20쫀볍70쓪듺뾪쪼,Pauly(1974,1978)ꆢJohnson(1977)ꆢDahlby(1981)뫍Lereah(1983)뗈뚼뛔헢룶컊쳢뷸탐맽럖컶ꆣ퓚헢킩럖컶훐,쯹닉좡뗄랽램듳뛠쫇믹폚춼탎,뛸늻쫇믹폚뚨솿뗄럖컶ꆣ믹폚춼탎뗄럖컶믹놾쫇쪾틢탔뗄,좱랦맦랶탔싛횤,죝틗듸살횱맛짏뗄컳닮,튲늻뇣폚뷸탐뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶ꆣ틲듋,놾컄쫔춼퓚퇘폃Dahlby쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏,춨맽뛔쪵쪩뫍늻쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쪱놣쿕쫐뎡퓚뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂짧믡뢣샻뗄뇈뷏,틔럖컶쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쫇럱믡듸살짧믡뢣샻뗄룄뷸,듓뛸싛횤헾뢮훆뚨잿훆놣쿕헾닟뗄뺭볃톧믹뒡ꆣ튻ꆢ탅쾢늻뛔돆놣쿕쫐뎡뗄짧믡뢣샻럖컶볙짨튻룶쿻럑헟뗄돵쪼닆뢻캪y,랢짺틢췢쫂맊퓢쫜쯰쪧뗄룅싊캪P,쯰쪧뫳뗄닆뢻뛮캪x,쯻뿉틔춨맽쿲놣쿕릫쮾횧뢶놣럑s1(캪볲떥웰볻,늻뾼싇뢽볓놣럑,틲듋s1쫇릫욽뺫쯣놣럑)살틆틢췢쫂맊듸살뗄쯰쪧ꆣ튻떩랢짺쯰쪧,뿉틔믱뗃놣쿕릫쮾횧뢶뗄늹뎥캪s2,(0ꇜs2ꇜy-x)ꆣ헢퇹,컒쏇뻍뿉틔폃(s2,s1)살뇭ꆡꆡ[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ훜몣헤,쟥뮪듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,헣붭닆뺭톧풺뷰죚톧풺붲쪦;돂뇼헽,쟥뮪듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦,훐맺놣쿕톧믡뎣컱샭쫂ꆣꆪ19ꆪ
쪾튻룶놣떥ꆣ죧맻쎻폐놣쿕,룃쿻럑헟퓚ꆰ쎻폐쫂맊ꆱ뫍ꆰ폐쫂맊ꆱ솽훖ힴ첬쿂뗄닆뢻뿉틔쫇(y,x),죧맻릺싲쇋놣쿕,퓲캪(y-s1,x-s1+s2)ꆣ(튻)믹놾쒣탍1.탨쟳몯쫽볙짨쫐뎡짏뗄쿻럑헟캪럧쿕맦뇜탍뗄,뿉틔춨맽릺싲놣쿕룄뇤퓚늻춬ힴ첬쿂뗄닆뢻ힴ뿶,쟒틔킧폃ퟮ듳뮯캪쒿뇪,톡퓱쫇럱릺싲놣쿕틔벰릺싲쫽솿ꆣ뷸튻늽,볙짨쿻럑헟뗄킧폃몯쫽캪뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜뛈늻뇤뗄,벴:ꛁzu(z)=--e,웤훐ꛁ>0,평듋뿉틔췆뗃쿻럑헟뗄탨쟳몯쫽캪:ꛁ(y-x-sꛐPe2)=ꛁ(y-x-s12),웤훐0ꇜs2ꇜy-x(1)-P+Pe2.릩룸몯쫽볙짨쫐뎡짏뗄놣쿕죋캪럧쿕훐탔뗄,쯻쯹맘탄쫇샻죳ꆣ춬쪱볙뚨놣쿕쫐뎡쫇췪좫뺺헹뗄,틲뛸쯹폐놣쿕죋뿉틔ퟔ평뷸돶ꆣ틲듋,듓뎤웚살뾴,퓚뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂,놣쿕쫐뎡훐쯹폐놣쿕죋뗄뺭볃샻죳뇘캪0ꆣ죧맻늻뾼싇놣쿕죋뗄퓋펪돉놾,퓲뛔폚뻟폐쒳튻쳘뚨쯰쪧룅싊뗄춶놣죋살쮵,놣쿕죋뗄엢뢶뛮쫇만뚨늻뇤뗄ꆣ틲뛸놣쿕쫐뎡뗄뎤웚릩룸몯쫽쟺쿟쫇튻쳵쮮욽횱쿟,웤캻훃횻폫춶놣죋랢짺놣쿕쫂맊뗄룅싊폐맘,맊뿉뇭쪾캪:ꛐ=P(2)(뛾)늻춬쫐뎡뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂짧믡뢣샻뗄뇈뷏쿖퓚,볙짨놣쿕쫐뎡훐듦퓚솽샠춶놣죋,쯻쏇뗄돵쪼닆뢻ꆢ틢췢쫂맊랢짺쪱뗄쯰쪧뛮뚼쫇쿠춬뗄,쯹늻춬뗄쫇쫂맊랢짺뗄룅싊ꆣ튻샠죋랢짺쫂맊퓢쫜쯰쪧뗄룅싊쫇HP,쇭튻샠죋뗄룅싊쫇LHP,P>LPꆣ컒쏇붫잰헟돆캪룟럧쿕춶놣죋,볙짨웤퓚ퟜ춶놣죋좺훐뗄뇈훘쫇ꛋH,뫳헟캪뗍럧쿕춶놣죋,뇈훘캪ꛋL,ꛋH+ꛋL=1ꆣ1.탅쾢췪좫뛔돆쪱뻹뫢놣쿕쫐뎡뗄뢣샻럖컶죧맻놣쿕쫐뎡훐탅쾢쫇췪좫뛔돆뗄,놣쿕릫쮾뿉틔헽좷쟸럖춶놣죋훐쓄킩쫴폚룟럧쿕죋좺,쓄킩쫴폚뗍럧쿕죋좺ꆣ폚쫇,놣쿕릫쮾뻍믡럖뇰틔놻놣쿕죋랢짺쫂맊뗄룅싊캪놣럑싊,쿲솽샠춶놣죋돶쫛좫뛮놣떥,벴놣쿕뷰뛮캪y-x,듋쪱솽샠춶놣죋믱뗃쇋좫늿뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠,짧믡ퟜ뢣샻W1뗈폚:WꛋH1=Hꛁ(y-x)ꛋLLꛁ(y-x)ꛁln(1-P+HPe)+ꛁln(1-P+LPe)-P(y-x)(3)웤훐,P=ꛋHHLP+ꛋLPꆣ헢쪱,짧믡뢣샻듯떽ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ2.탅쾢늻뛔돆쪱뻹뫢놣쿕쫐뎡뗄뢣샻럖컶(1)쟩탎1:쫐뎡짏룟럧쿕샠탍죋좺햼뇈뷏뛠믲솽샠죋좺뇈샽듳훂쿠떱죧맻놣쿕죋늻쓜맛달떽춶놣죋뗄쫂맊랢짺룅싊,풭쿈뗄좫뛮놣떥벯뫏뻍늻퓙쫇튻룶뺺헹뻹뫢ꆣ틲캪듋쪱룟럧쿕춶놣죋믡쎰돤뗍럧쿕춶놣죋틔쳡룟ퟔ짭뗄풤웚킧폃ꆣ죧맻쫐뎡짏쯹폐뗄춶놣죋뚼틔럑싊PL릺싲놣쿕,놣쿕릫쮾뻍믡뿷쯰ꆣ헢쪱,놣쿕릫쮾펦룃짨볆솽훖늻춬샠탍뗄놣떥:튻훖럑싊뷏룟,떫놣헏뛮뛈튲쿠펦뷏룟;쇭튻훖럑싊뷏뗍,떫믡폐튻룶뷏룟뗄쏢엢뛮(벴Rothschild뫍Stiglitz퓚1976쓪쳡돶뗄R-S럖샫뻹뫢)ꆣ룹뻝R-S럖샫뻹뫢뗄뷡싛,듋쪱룟럧쿕춶놣죋믡톡퓱좫뛮놣쿕,놣럑싊캪HP,뗍럧쿕춶놣죋믡톡퓱늻ퟣ뛮놣쿕,놣뛮볇캪LꇤLꇤs,0<s<y-x,놣럑싊캪LPꆣ헢쪱뗄짧믡ퟜ뢣샻W2캪:W2=ꛋH1HHꛁln(1-P+Hꛁ(y-x)Pe)-P(y-x)+ꛋL1(y-x)ꛁ(ꛁln(1-PL+PLꛁsLꇤe)2)-ln(1-PL+PLy-x-e))-PLLꇤs2(4)춨맽폫탅쾢췪좫뛔돆쪱뗄짧믡뢣샻(볻(3)쪽)쿠뇈,뿉뗃돶:죧맻듦퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆,벴쪹놣쿕죋쓜짨훃돶튻훖믺훆,죃룟뗍럧쿕헟춨맽죏릺늻춬샠탍뗄놣떥살ퟔ뚯쿔쪾웤뗄럧쿕샠탍,뮹쫇믡틽웰짧믡뢣샻뗄쿂붵ꆣ(2)쟩탎2:쫐뎡짏뻸듳뛠쫽놻놣쿕죋쫴폚뗍럧쿕샠탍죧맻놣쿕쫐뎡훐뗍럧쿕춶놣죋쫽솿듳듳뎬맽룟럧쿕춶놣죋,헢쪱뫲놣쿕릫쮾뿉틔퓚쫐뎡욽뻹쇣웚췻샻죳쿟짏,벴틔솽샠놻놣쿕죋뗄랢짺쫂맊뗄욽뻹룅싊P캪놣럑싊쳡릩튻럝놣떥,듋쪱놣쿕뷰뛮(볇캪Ws2)쫇평ꆪ20ꆪ
뗍럧쿕춶놣죋내ퟔ짭웚췻킧폃ퟮ듳뮯풭퓲뻶뚨뗄ꆣ듋쪱뗄짧믡ퟜ뢣샻W3캪:WꛋH3=Hꛁ(y-x)Hꛁ(y-x-sW2)ꛁn(1-P+Hln(1-P+HPe)-lPe)ꛋL(5)+Lꛁ(y--sWꛁ2)Wln(1-P+Lx)Lꛁ(Pe)-ln(1-P+Ly-xPe)-Ps2폫탅쾢췪좫뛔돆쪱뗄짧믡뢣샻(볻(3)쪽)쿠뇈뿉뗃돶:퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄놣쿕쫐뎡훐,죧맻늻쟸럖춶놣죋뗄럧쿕샠탍,뷶돶쫛튻훖놣떥쯹탎돉뗄믬춬뻹뫢춬퇹믡퓬돉짧믡뢣샻뗄쿂붵ꆣ(3)뷡싛듓짏쫶럖컶뿉틔뗃돶:퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄쟩뿶쿂,놣쿕쫐뎡벴쪹쓜듯떽뻹뫢,웤짧믡뢣샻튲늻쫇ퟮ병뗄,틲캪춶놣죋쳘뇰쫇뗍럧쿕춶놣죋늻쓜틔릫욽뺫쯣볛룱릺싲떽ퟣ뛮놣쿕ꆣ뛾ꆢ잿훆놣쿕뛔짧믡뢣샻룄뷸뗄럖컶죧잰컄쯹횸,캪쪹짧믡ퟜ럧쿕돉놾ퟮ킡뮯,헾뢮믡튪쟳뛔쒳킩쿕훖,쳘뇰쫇쓇킩뻟폐헽췢늿탔뗄쿕훖쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕ꆣ죧2006쓪뾪쪼쪵쪩뗄붻잿쿕뻍쫇춨맽램싉잿훆믺뚯뎵쯹폐죋믲맜샭죋릺싲뗄퓰죎놣쿕,퓚ퟮ듳돌뛈짏캪붻춨쫂맊쫜몦죋쳡릩벰쪱뫍믹놾뗄놣헏ꆣ틔쿂듓뺭볃톧뗄뷇뛈럖컶쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕믡뛔짧믡뢣샻닺짺쪲쎴퇹뗄펰쿬ꆣ볙짨놣쿕죋틔룟ꆢ뗍럧쿕춶놣죋랢짺틢췢쫂맊뗄욽뻹룅싊P캪릫욽볛룱쳡릩잿훆놣쿕,벴ꛐ=P,놣쿕뷰뛮평헾뢮맦뚨,쟒퓊탭놻놣쿕죋퓚릺싲잿훆놣쿕뫳룹뻝탨튪퓙릺싲늿럖짌튵뗚죽헟퓰죎놣쿕ퟷ캪늹돤ꆣ(튻)쫐뎡뒦폚쟩탎1쪱잿훆놣쿕뗄뢣샻룄뷸럖컶볙짨헾뢮맦뚨뗄잿훆놣쿕뛮캪cs2,웤랶캧캪Lꇤs2ꇜcs2<y-x,쟒퓊탭놻놣쿕죋퓚릺싲잿훆놣쿕뫳룹뻝탨튪퓙릺싲늿럖짌튵퓰죎놣쿕ퟷ캪늹돤ꆣ죧맻뗍럧쿕헟릺싲뗄ퟜ놣쿕뷰뛮캪Lꇥs2,퓲쯻쯹릺싲뗄늹돤짌튵놣쿕뗄뷰뛮캪Lꇥcs2-s2;춬퇹,죴룟럧쿕헟릺싲뗄ퟜ놣쿕뷰뛮캪Hꇥs2,퓲쯻쯹릺싲뗄늹돤짌튵놣쿕뗄뷰뛮캪Hꇥcs2-s2ꆣ룹뻝DLꇥahlby(1981)뗄럖컶,듋쪱폐Hꇥs2=y-x,s2<y-xꆣ벴룟럧쿕헟믡릺싲좫뛮놣쿕,뗍럧쿕헟퓲뗃떽늿럖놣쿕ꆣ죧춼1,떱쯹폐춶놣죋퓚릺싲쇋잿훆놣쿕cs뫳,뿉쫓캪ퟔ놣뗣듓뗣E틆떽뗣csꆣ퓚탂뗄ퟔ놣뗣짏뢴훆풭살뗄R-S뻹뫢,벴뿉뗃떽탂뗄뻹뫢뗣캪HꇥLꇥ:(s,s),솽샠춶놣죋뗄놣쿕뷰뛮뫍횧뢶뗄놣럑럖뇰캪H(y-x,Pcꇥ(y-x)-(PH-P)s2)뫍Lꇥ(s2,PLLs2+(Pc-PL)s2)ꆣ춼1ꆡ쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕뫳뗄R-S뻹뫢ꆡꆡ뺭볆쯣뿉횪,퓚탂뗄뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂,폫캴쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쪱쿠뇈,룟럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쪣폠폐쯹짏짽,풭틲쫇헢쪱룟럧쿕춶놣죋늻뷶쓜틔뗍폚ퟔ짭릫욽볛룱PH뗄볛룱P릺싲떽놣뛮캪cs2뗄놣헏,뛸쟒쓜릻퓙릺싲뛮뛈캪y-cx-s2뗄짌튵놣쿕,틔뷢뻶잿훆놣쿕맦뚨뗄놣헏뛮뛈늻릻뗄컊쳢ꆣ뛸뗍럧쿕춶놣죋쪣폠뗄뇤뮯퓲늻쏷좷ꆣ쫗쿈,쯻쏇튪틔룟폚ퟔ짭릫욽볛룱LP뗄볛룱P릺싲놣뛮캪cs2뗄놣헏ꆣ퓚헢룶맽돌훐,뗍럧쿕춶놣죋뛔룟럧쿕춶놣죋쪵쪩쇋늹쳹,퓬돉쇋ퟔ짭쪣폠뗄쿂붵;웤듎,쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕틔벰퓊탭릺싲늹돤짌튵놣쿕뗄헾닟쓜쪹뗍럧쿕춶놣죋뿉릺싲뗄놣헏뛮뛈퓶볓,듓뛸폖믡쪹웤쪣폠퓶볓ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔,쯦ퟅ놻놣쿕죋훐뗍럧쿕죋좺쯹햼뇈훘뗄붵뗍믲맦뚨뗄잿훆놣쿕뷰뛮뗄퓶볓,뗍럧쿕헟뗄쪣폠쿂붵뗄뿉쓜탔믡퓶볓ꆣꆪ21ꆪ
ꆡꆡ틲캪잿훆놣쿕뗄볛룱쫇내룟ꆢ뗍럧쿕춶놣죋랢짺틢췢쫂맊뗄욽뻹룅싊P좷뚨뗄,늹돤짌튵놣쿕뗄볛룱쫇내솽샠놻놣쿕죋룷ퟔ랢짺틢췢쫂맊뗄룅싊럖뇰좷뚨뗄,맊짺닺헟쪣폠캪0ꆣ쯹틔,헢쪱뗄짧믡ퟜ뢣샻W4뗈폚:WꛋLLꛁ(y-x)ꛋLL(y-x-sLꇥ2)LLꇥ4=ꛁln(1-P+LPe)-ꛁln(1-P+LꛁPe)-ꛋLPs2ꛋH+Hꛁ(y-x)ꛁln(1-P+HPe)-ꛋHHP(y-x)(6)쿔좻,(6)쪽듳폚캴쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쪱쟩탎1쿂뗄짧믡뢣샻(볻(4)쪽)ꆣ헢뇭쏷:퓚쪵쪩쇋잿훆놣쿕뫳,쯤좻뗍럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠뿉쓜믡쿂붵,떫ퟜ믡쪹룟럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠벰짧믡ퟜ뢣샻퓶볓ꆣ(뛾)쫐뎡뒦폚쟩탎2쪱잿훆놣쿕뗄뢣샻룄뷸럖컶볙짨헾뢮맦뚨뗄잿훆놣쿕뛮뛈cs2,웤랶캧캪Ws2ꇜcs2<y-x,쟒퓊탭놻놣쿕죋퓚릺싲잿훆놣쿕뫳룹뻝탨튪퓙릺싲늿럖짌튵퓰죎놣쿕ퟷ캪늹돤ꆣ죧맻뗍럧쿕헟릺싲뗄ퟜ놣쿕뷰뛮캪cLs2,퓲쯻쯹릺싲뗄늹돤짌튵놣쿕뗄뷰뛮캪cLcs2-s2;춬퇹,죴룟럧쿕헟릺싲뗄ퟜ놣쿕뷰뛮캪cHs2,퓲쯻쯹릺싲뗄늹돤짌튵놣쿕뗄뷰뛮캪cHcs2-s2ꆣ폫쟩탎cHcL1춬퇹,듋쪱폐s2=y-x,s2<y-x,벴룟럧쿕헟믡릺싲좫뛮놣쿕,뗍럧쿕헟퓲뗃떽늿럖놣쿕ꆣ죧춼2,떱쯹폐춶놣죋퓚릺싲쇋잿훆놣쿕cs뫳,컒쏇뿉쫓캪ퟔ놣뗣듓뗣E틆떽뗣csꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏릺싲뗄짌튵놣쿕쫇튻룶럖샫뻹뫢ꋙ,탂뗄뻹뫢뗣캪cHcL:(s,s),솽샠춶놣죋뗄놣쿕뷰뛮뫍횧뢶뗄놣럑럖뇰캪H(y-x,P(Y-X)HcLcLLc-(P-P)s2)뫍cL(s2,Ps2+(P-P)s2)ꆣ춼2ꆡ쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕뫳뗄Wilson뻹뫢ꆡꆡ뺭볆쯣뇈뷏뗃돶:퓚탂뗄뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂,폫캴쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쪱쿠뇈,룟럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠폐쯹짏짽,뛸뗍럧쿕헟뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠뗄뇤뮯퓲쫇:1.떱cWs2=s2벴잿훆놣쿕뗄놣뛮폫쫐뎡풭놾뒦폚Wilson뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱뗄놣뛮쿠뗈쪱,폫캴쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕쪱뗍럧쿕헟뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠쿠뇈,쿖퓚뗄쪣폠믡폐쯹퓶볓;ꆡꆡ2.떱헾뢮맦뚨뗄잿훆놣쿕놣뛮cs2퓶볓쪱,뗍럧쿕헟뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠믡돶쿖쿂붵쟷쫆,헢쮵쏷튻떩헾뢮냑잿훆놣쿕뗄놣쿕뷰뛮뚨뗃맽룟,퓲폐뿉쓜믡틽웰뗍럧쿕놻놣쿕죋쿻럑헟쪣폠쿂붵ꆣ평폚듋쪱뗄짺닺헟쪣폠죔캪0,맊짧믡ퟜ뢣샻W5퓲캪:WꛋLLꛁ()ꛋLLLꛁ(y-x-scL2)cL5=)-ꛋLLꛁln(1-P+Ly-xPe)-ꛁln(1-P+PePs2ꛋH+ꛁln(1-PH(+PHꛁy-x)e)-ꛋHPH(y-x)(7)ꆡꆡ쿔좻,(7)쪽듳폚컞잿훆놣쿕쪱쫐뎡뒦폚쟩탎2쪱뗄짧믡뢣샻(볻(5)쪽),틲뛸쮵쏷닉좡뿉틔릺싲늹돤짌튵놣쿕뗄잿훆놣쿕헾닟쓜쪹짧믡뢣샻퓶볓ꆣ쳘뇰쫇죧맻잿훆놣쿕뗄놣쿕뷰뛮뗈폚쫐뎡뒦폚돵쪼뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱뗄놣쿕뷰뛮,룟ꆢ뗍놻놣쿕죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠벰짧믡뢣샻뚼믡퓶볓,듓뛸쪹짧믡뢣샻듯떽엁샛췐룄뷸ꆣꆡꆡꋙ틲캪Wilson뻹뫢뗣쫇뗍럧쿕헟뗄킧폃쟺쿟폫쫐뎡릫욽볛룱놣쿕뗄쟐뗣,죧춼2,캨튻좷뚨캪Ws,틲뛸릺싲늹돤짌튵놣쿕쪱늻뿉쓜퓙탎돉Wilson뻹뫢ꆣꆪ22ꆪ
쯄ꆢ뷡싛뫍햹췻춨맽뛔탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄놣쿕쫐뎡뒦폚늻춬뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂,틔벰쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕잰뫳뗄짧믡뢣샻뗄뇈뷏럖컶,놾컄뗃돶쇋틔쿂뷡싛:쫗쿈,평폚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄놣쿕쫐뎡훐듦퓚쓦톡퓱쿖쿳,벴쪹쫐뎡듯떽쇋뻹뫢,컞싛쫇R-S럖샫뻹뫢뮹쫇Wilson믬춬뻹뫢,뚼믡퓬돉짧믡뢣샻쿂붵,벴쫐뎡킧싊뗄붵뗍ꆣꆡꆡ웤듎,잿훆놣쿕뗄쪵쪩폐샻폚짧믡뢣샻뗄룄짆,뿉틔늿럖뗘쿻돽쓦톡퓱쯹퓬돉뗄쫐뎡쪧쇩,늻맜쫐뎡짏룟뗍럧쿕뗄놻놣쿕죋횮볤뗄뇈샽죧뫎,뻟쳥뷡싛죧쿂:1.죧맻쫐뎡짏룟럧쿕놻놣쿕죋쯹햼뗄뇈샽뷏룟믲솽샠죋좺뇈샽듳훂쿠떱,쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕믡쪹룟럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠짏짽ꆣ쯤좻뗍럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠폐뿉쓜믡쿂붵,떫짧믡ퟜ뢣샻뿉틔뗃떽룄짆ꆣ헢쪱,헾뢮펦톡퓱튻룶쫊떱뗄잿훆놣쿕뷰뛮,죃뗍럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠쿂붵횵듯떽ퟮ킡ꆣ2.죧맻쫐뎡짏뻸듳뛠쫽죋쫴폚뗍럧쿕샠탍,쪵쪩잿훆놣쿕춬퇹믡쪹룟럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠짏짽ꆣ쯤좻쯦ퟅ잿훆놣쿕놣뛮cs2뗄퓶볓,뗍럧쿕춶놣죋뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠폐쿂붵쟷쫆,떫늻맜퓵퇹,짧믡ퟜ뢣샻뮹쫇뿉틔뗃떽룄짆ꆣ쳘뇰쫇,죧맻헾뢮죃잿훆놣쿕뗄놣쿕뷰뛮뗈폚쫐뎡듯떽Wilson뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱뗄놣쿕뷰뛮벴cs2=Ws2,뮹믡쪹짧믡뢣샻쪵쿖엁샛췐룄뷸ꆣ샽죧,헾뢮퓚맦뚨붻잿쿕뗄엢뎥쿞뛮쪱,뿉틔틔풭쿈쫐뎡짏듳뛠쫽죋퓚릺싲짌튵죽퓰쿕쪱쯹톡퓱뗄퓰죎쿞뛮캪믹ힼꆣ놾컄뗄럖컶뻖쿞폚췪좫뺺헹뗄놣쿕쫐뎡,쟒볙짨늻춬럧쿕샠탍춶놣죋뗄킧폃몯쫽쫇쿠춬뗄,늢쟒쫇뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜뛈늻뇤뗄ꆣ퓚틔뫳뗄퇐뺿훐,컒쏇뿉틔훰붥럅쯉헢킩볙짨ꆣ죧럖컶늻췪좫뺺헹뗄놣쿕쫐뎡,믲헟늻춬럧쿕샠탍뗄춶놣죋펵폐늻춬뗄킧폃몯쫽뗈ꆣ듋췢,죧뫎톡좡쫊떱춳볆횸뇪뫍쫽뻝,뛔놾컄뗃돶뗄쿠맘뷡싛뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩,튲쫇튻룶쪮럖뻟폐쳴햽탔뗄뿎쳢ꆣ[닎뾼컄쿗][1]ꆡ.,1981,ꆰAdverseSelectionandParetoImprovementsthroughCompulsoryInsuranceꆱ,PublicChoice,,,PP547-559.[2]ꆡ.,1977,ꆰChoiceofCompulsoryInsuranceSchemesunderAdverseSelectionꆱ,PublicChoice,,Fall,PP23-36.[3]ꆡ.,1983,InformationProblemsRegulationinInsuranceMarkets,UniversityofVirginia.[4]ꆡ.,1974,ꆰOverinsuranceandPublicProvisionofinsurance:theRoleofMoralHazardandAd2verseSelectionꆱ,TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,,,PP44-62.[5]ꆡ.,1978,ꆰOverinsuranceandPublicProvisionofinsurance:Commentꆱ,TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,,,PP693-696.[6]ꆡRothschildM.,.,1976,ꆰEquilibriuminCompetitiveInsuranceMarkets:TheEconomicsofMarketswithImperfectInformationꆱ,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,,,PP629-649.[7]ꆡSpence,M.,1978,ꆰProductDifferentiationandPerformanceinInsuranceMarketsꆱ,JournalofPublicEco2nomics,10,PP427-477.[8]ꆡWilsonC.,1977,ꆰAModelofInsuranceMarketswithIncompleteInformationꆱ,JournalofEconomicTheo2ry,12,:Usingsocialwelfareasanindexofmarketefficiency,;andthen,comparingdifferencesofthesocialwelfarebeforeandafterimplementationofthecompulsoryinsurance,:informationasymmetry;compulsoryinsurance;socialwelfare;marketefficiency[뇠벭:쪩ꆡ쏴]ꆪ23ꆪ
