뗚23뻭ꆡ퓶뾯뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ퇐ꆡ뺿.ꆡ2005쓪12퓂컄헂뇠뫅:1003-2053(2005)07-0196-05믹폚닺욷짺쏼훜웚뗄쮫맑춷쫐뎡닺욷뾪랢뺺헹슥룟쿨,퓸주탇(짏몣붻춨듳톧맜샭톧풺,짏몣200052)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄퇐뺿쇋쮫춷쫐뎡훐뗄뻟폐튻뚨짺쏼훜웚뗄닺욷뾪랢뺺헹ꆣ닺욷뗄짺쏼훜웚뫍닺욷뾪랢뗄퇐랢춶죫뛔쮫춷쫐뎡뗄닺욷뾪랢뺺헹뻹뫢폐ퟅ횱뷓펰쿬ꆣ퓚닺욷짺쏼훜웚뷏뛌뗄쟩뿶쿂,컞싛퇐랢돉놾룟뗍,쮫춷슢뛏뺺헹뻹뇭쿖캪햼쿈뺺헹ꆣ떱닺욷짺쏼훜웚뷏뎤쪱,죧맻벼쫵뺺헹훷튪믹폚퇐랢춶죫,훊솿뺺헹듓햼쿈뺺헹뇤캪뻟폐룺쯦헟폅쫆뗄뗈듽뺺헹ꆣ맘볼듊:쮫춷슢뛏;닺욷뾪랢;짺쏼훜웚훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ웳튵뗄벼쫵뒴탂뫍탂닺욷뾪랢햽싔쫂맘웳튵뗄튪쎴솦헹ퟷ캪쇬쿈헟쫗쿈뷸죫튻룶탂닺욷쫐뎡;튪짺듦뫍랢햹,뛸뷸죫쫐뎡뗄쪱믺뛔튻훖탂닺욷믲탂쎴죃뛔쫖쿈웚뷸죫,뛸뫳룹뻝쫐뎡뗄랴펦,ퟷ캪룺쯦벼쫵뗄돉냜훁맘훘튪ꆣ헟뷸죫쫐뎡ꆣ튻냣죏캪,돉캪튻쿮탂닺욷믲탂벼쫵퓚닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛훐,뒫춳뗄쫐뎡뷸죫뺺헹럖컶퓚쫐뎡짏뗄쇬쿈헟뻟폐폅쫆[5][6]ꆣ떫퓚닺욷퇐랢돉폐튻룶믹놾볙짨,벴닺욷뗄짺쏼훜웚쫇컞쿞뗄믲쟷놾뷏룟뗄쟩뿶쿂,닺욷뾪랢늩?뗄뻹뫢훐룼뿉쓜돶쿲폚컞쿞뗄ꆣ떫쫇,쯦ퟅ벼쫵짽벶뫍쳦듺닺욷돶쿖쿖뗄쫇룺쯦헟폅쫆[7][8]ꆣ떫쫇,퓚닺욷짺쏼훜웚뷏뗄볓뿬,헢튻볙짨뛔쒳킩쇬폲,폈웤쫇뛔룟탂벼쫵웳뛌뗄쟩뿶쿂,웳튵뗄믘놨웚튲쿠펦쯵뛌ꆣ헢쪱,늩?튵뗄닺욷뾪랢뫍쫐뎡뷸죫뻶닟살쮵늻릻잿붡ꆣ뛔폚뗄뻹뫢럖컶폖랢짺쇋뇤뮯ꆣ맜샭헟뛸퇔,퓚훆뚨쫐뎡뷸죫뻶닟쪱,늻뷶튪뾼싇훊놾컄퓚떥뷗뛎뺲첬늩?럖컶뗄믹뒡짏,룹뻝닺솿뫍볛룱뗄뺺헹,뮹튪뾼싇닺욷짺쏼훜웚쯹듸살뗄욷뾪랢뺺헹뗄솽룶믹놾틲쯘ꆪꆪꆪ닺욷짺쏼훜웚뫍퇐믘놨웚뛔웳튵쫕틦뗄펰쿬ꆣ틲듋폐뇘튪춨맽쫊떱뗄랢춶죫,뛔늻춬퇐랢돉놾뫍늻춬닺욷짺쏼훜웚뗄쮫랽램냑닺욷짺쏼훜웚ퟷ캪튻쿮펰쿬틲쯘쓉죫닺튵뺺맑춷뺺헹뷸탐뚯첬늩?럖컶ꆣ놾컄뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭헹럖컶뗄뿲볜훐ꆣ쏷:죧맻벼쫵뺺헹훷튪쫇믹폚퇐랢춶죫,뛸쟒닺욷뗄떱잰,맺쓚췢믹폚닺욷짺쏼훜웚럖컶뗄닺욷뾪짺쏼훜웚뷏뎤뗄뮰,퓚늻췪좫뢲룇쫐뎡쟩뿶쿂,쮫춷랢뺺헹퇐뺿뷏캪짙볻ꆣFilson폃닺튵뺭볃톧랽램싛슢뛏쫐뎡뗄닺욷뾪랢뺺헹붫뇭쿖캪뻟폐룺쯦헟폅쫆쫶쇋뛌짺쏼훜웚뛔PC닺욷뗄훊솿뫍돉놾뗄펰뗄뗈듽뺺헹;뛸퓚웤쯻쟩뿶쿂,쮫춷슢뛏뗄쫐뎡뷸죫쿬[1][2];Hans뗈죏캪튩욷닺욷짺쏼훜웚뗄늻춬붫뛔뺺헹뇭쿖캪뻟폐쇬쿈헟폅쫆뗄햼쿈뺺헹ꆣ웳튵뗄R&D믱샻쓜솦뫍헻쳥쫕틦뗄뺻쿖횵닺짺펰쿬[3];튲폐죋듓쫐뎡쳘헷뷇뛈쒣쓢쇋퓚늻춬짺쏼훜1ꆡ떥뷗뛎늩?럖컶웚뗄쫐뎡쿂늻춬햽싔뚨캻웳튵뗄뒴탂ꆢ쫐뎡벨킧뫍뺺헹[4]ꆣ떫듓닺튵쓚뺺헹뗄뷇뛈,폈웤쫇듓맑춷뺺볙짨퓚쮫춷슢뛏쫐뎡훐,닺욷쫇ퟝ쿲닮틬뗄,벴헹뷇뛈퇐뺿늻춬닺욷짺쏼훜웚뛔웳튵쫕틦펰쿬뗄컄늻춬쪱볤뗄닺욷훊솿폫볛룱쫇늻튻퇹뗄,쎿룶쪱웚,쿗몱볻ꆣ쎿룶쿻럑헟훁뛠듓웳튵1믲웳튵2릺싲튻룶떥캻뗄퓚쮫춷슢뛏쫐뎡훐,튻룶웳튵폐솽훖햽싔톡퓱:닺욷ꆣ헢훖짌욷뗄쳘탔평훊솿횸쫽s살좷뚨ꆣ짨쿻ꆡꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2005-09-02;탞믘죕웚:2005-11-24ꆡꆡퟷ헟볲뷩:슥룟쿨(1976-),쓐,헣붭틥컚죋,붲쪦,늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲캪벼쫵뒴탂뫍닺튵ퟩ횯ꆣ퓸주탇(1966-),쓐,낲믕낲쟬죋,뷌쫚ꆢ늩쪿짺떼쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲캪벼쫵뒴탂폫움볛ꆣ
ꆡ퓶뾯슥룟쿨퓸주탇:믹폚닺욷짺쏼훜웚뗄쮫맑춷쫐뎡닺욷뾪랢뺺헹ꆤ197ꆤ럑헟뗄욫뫃닎쫽캪ꛈ,쿻럑헟뻟폐틔쿂뗄욫뫃:ꆡꆡ볙짨닺욷훊솿폫뷸죫쪱볤돉헽뇈쟒s=t,쎿튻죧맻쯻쏇틔볛룱pi릺싲훊솿캪si뗄닺욷,쎿튻떥캻쪱볤뗄R&D춶죫캪ꛋs(ꛋꇝ0);쎿룶웳튵뚼뿉쪱웚쿻럑헟뗄뺻킧폃횵캪:U=sꛈi-pi,럱퓲캪0ꆣ틔뻶뚨뫎쪱뷸죫쫐뎡늢에뛏뺺헹뛔쫖쫇럱틔벰퓚뫎웤훐,s1ꆢp1캪웳튵1쳡릩뗄닺욷훊솿뫍볛룱,뛸s2ꆢ쪱쇬쿈뷸죫쫐뎡ꆣ뗚튻룶뷸죫쫐뎡뗄웳튵1벴쇬쿈p2캪웳튵2쳡릩뗄닺욷훊솿뫍볛룱ꆣ헟,퓚웤뷸죫쫐뎡뗄쪱볤웰훁뗚뛾룶웳튵2벴룺쯦볙짨쿻럑헟욫뫃ꛈ뻹퓈뗘럖늼퓚쟸볤[a,b],헟ퟷ돶ퟮ병랴펦뗄쪱볤^s2횹,믱뗃슢뛏쫕죫RM캪쇋뇣폚럖컶,늻쪧튻냣탔,쇮b=1,1>2aꇝ0ꆣ뛔(s1)ꆣ듓쪱볤^s2뾪쪼,틔뫳솽룶웳튵듓웤볛룱뺺헹폚쒳튻캻쿻럑헟뛸퇔,쯻(쯽)톡퓱떽쓄튻볒웳튵릺훐믱뗃쮫춷슢뛏뗄쓉쪲뻹뫢쫕죫Rk^1(s1,s2)뫍Rk2싲좡뻶폚릺싲뗄뺻킧폃횵뗄듳킡,죴U^1>U2,퓲듓(s1,s2),kꇊ{A,B}ꆣ쎿룶웳튵뚼쓜퓚뺺헹뛔쫖뷸웳튵1릺싲;죴U1<U2,퓲듓웳튵2릺싲ꆣ죧맻솽죫쫐뎡쪱솢뿌달뻵ꆣ죧맻룺쯦헟톡퓱춬쪱뷸죫,퓲볒웳튵횮볤뗄볛룱뫍훊솿닮늻첫룟,뻍믡폐튻룶쿻솽룶웳튵믱뗃춬퇹뗄펮샻ꆣ럑욫뫃캪m뗄쿻럑헟,쯻(쯽)듓웳튵1뫍듓웳튵2릺싲쫇컞닮틬뗄,벴:2ꆡ쒣ꆡ탍U1=s1m-p1=s2m-p2=U2pm2-p1놾컄샻폃ퟓ늩?뺫솶뻹뫢살럖컶룃뚯첬늩?ꆣ=s2-s1퓚쮫춷슢뛏쫐뎡뚯첬늩?훐,쇬쿈헟뗄쫕틦캪:늻쪧튻냣탔,컒쏇볙짨s1<s2,캪쇋뷢쫍룸뚨퓚룺쯦헟죫쫐잰뗄슢뛏쫕틦+퓚룺쯦헟죫쫐뫳훊솿닺욷뗄볛룱뺺헹뻹뫢,뇘탫쟸뇰쿻럑헟욫뫃럖뗄쮫춷슢뛏쫕틦-춶(퇐랢)돉놾늼뗄쿂뇟뷧a뗄솽훖쟩탎:룺쯦헟뗄쫕틦캪:A:aퟣ릻듳,벴s1a-p1Ε0,쪹뗃쫐뎡놻슢뛏뻹죫쫐뫳뗄쮫춷슢뛏쫕틦-춶(퇐랢)돉놾뫢뢲룇,튲뻍쫇쮵룸뚨욫뫃쟸볤쓚뗄쿻럑헟뚼듓웳닎헕Fudenberg뫍Tirole뗄쒣탍[9],퓚놾컄훐,튵1믲웳튵2뒦뷸탐쇋릺싲;횻뾼싇쮫춷슢뛏쟩뿶뫍떥튻닺욷뒴탂늩?(늻뾼싇B:a뫜뗍,벴s1a-p1<0,튻킩쿻럑헟늢캴듓슢룃뒴탂닉폃횮잰웤쯼닺욷뛔웳튵쫕틦뗄펰쿬)ꆣ볙뛏훐뷸탐릺싲,횻폐싺ퟣ욫뫃닎쫽ꛈꇝp1/s1뗄쿻럑짨닺욷훊솿폫뷸죫쪱볤돉헽뇈,쟒s=t;쎿튻떥캻쪱헟닅뷸탐릺싲ꆣ볤뗄R&D춶죫캪ꛋt(ꛋꇝ0),벴쎿튻떥캻쪱볤뗄퇐퓚A쟩탎쿂,죴aퟣ릻듳,쪹뗃쫐뎡뒦폚슢뛏랢춶죫쫇틔ꛋ캪닎쫽뗄뗈닮쫽쇐뗝퓶뗄;떥뛀틔쇬뻹뫢떱훐,퓲욫뫃킡폚m뗄쿻럑헟뚼듓웳튵1뒦릺쿈헟뗄뷸죫쪱볤s1캪뇤솿,듋쪱컒쏇뾼싇떽룺쯦헟싲뛸욫뫃듳폚m뗄쿻럑헟붫듓웳튵2뒦릺싲ꆣ늻뗄ퟮ병랴펦^s2(s1),닺욷뒴탂뗄쇬쿈헟뫍룺쯦헟뗄쪧튻냣탔,컒쏇냑믵뇒떥캻뫍쫐뎡죝솿뇪ힼ뮯;늻뾼쫕틦몯쫽쒣탍죧쿂:싇뷰뗄쪱볤볛횵,벴쇮샻싊r=1ꆣ퓲솽룶웳튵뗄L(s1)=ퟮ듳쫕죫럖뇰캪:2ꇒs^2-teR^-tM(s1)dt+ꇒN-teRk1(s1,s2)dt-ꇒs1eꛋtdt,ss^120RA1-2a1(s2-s1)3F(s21)=ꇒN-t-teRk^2(s1,s2)dt-ꇒs^2eꛋtdt,s^20RA2-2a2(s2-s1)3헢샯kꇊ{A,B},N캪닺욷뗄짺쏼웚ꆣꆡꆡ퓚B쟩탎쿂,솽룶웳튵뗄ퟮ듳쫕죫럖뇰캪:ꆡ퇐뺿폫랢햹돉놾캪0쪱뗄쟩뿶벴R&D돉놾ꛋ=0,닺욷훊솿뗄쳡룟컞탨퇐랢RBs1=2-s1s1s22(4s2-s1)춶죫ꆣ퓚듋쟩뿶쿂,놾컄죏캪닺욷뾪랢뗄뺺헹뻹돉s2-s1캪햼쿈늩?,쟒퓚쫐뎡췪좫뢲룇쪱뻟폐쇬쿈헟폅쫆ꆣRB2=s2s22(4s2-s1)(1)퓚쫐뎡놻슢뛏뢲룇쟩탎쿂퓚듋쟩뿶쿂,쇬쿈헟뫍룺쯦헟뗄쫕틦몯쫽햹뾪ꆡꆡퟷ캪뇈뷏,짏쫶쟩뿶훐뛀볒웳튵뗄슢뛏쫕죫캪:뫳럖뇰캪:RM=p1D1(p1)=1s1L1-s^(s1)=1-ss1(e-e2)+44
ꆤ198ꆤ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ퇐ꆡ뺿뗚23뻭ꆡ21-2a^-s^2-N헟붫톡퓱쪹솽룶웳튵뒦폚춬뗈쫕틦뗄쓉쪲뻹뫢훐,(s2-s1)(e-e)3벴쇬쿈헟뫍룺쯦헟뚼퓚3s1뒦뷸죫쫐뎡,쪹뗃F(S1)2F1^-s^(s1)=2-2-N(s2-s1)(e-e)=L3(s1)ꆣ3ꆡꆡ룹뻝짏쫶솽쪽쯹틔,헢튻쫐뎡뷸죫뺺헹릹퓬캪듸폐뻹뗈쫕틦,퓚Dutta뗈뗄싛쫶[7]훐,횻튪싺ퟣ뗄햼쿈늩?ꆣ:a<ꛎꇔ32-e-1ꇖꆡꆡ듦퓚33F(s1)>L(s1),웤훐3s1캪몯쫽L(s1)뗄ퟮ듳횵ꆣ뛸쟒,룺쯦헟뗄ퟮ병뷸죫쪱볤캪^:s2=1+s1ꆣ냑룃쪽듺죫L(s1),늢쟳L(s1)뗄ퟮ듳횵,쇭쇮9L(s1)=0,뿉뗃:9s1-12339-13e+-116ae(1-a)s1=-1,쟒9L(s1)32=9(1-e)9s1춼1ꆡꛋ=0,쫐뎡캴놻뢲룇,L(s1’)>F(0)1-1-s3-(1-e)e1<0ꆣ4떫쫇,닎헕T[10]irole뛔닺욷닮틬뮯쒣탍훐뗄쫐뎡췪좫뢲룇볙짨:1-2a(s2-s1)Φas1,벴(s2-s1)Φa3s1+2s2ꆡꆡ냑^3s2=1+s1벰s1듺죫뿉뗃:-1(s1-s1)=3(1-e)-1-1s1+2s215-19e+16ae(1-a)ꆡꆡ룹뻝쳵볾a<ꛎꇔ32-e-1ꇖ,짏쪽춼2ꆡꛋ=0,쫐뎡캴놻뢲룇,L(s1’)ꇜF(0)2뗄벫킡횵풼캪,튲뻍쫇쮵aꇝ>ꛎꆣ솽룶볙짨뮥쿠쎬뛜ꆣ벴퓚쟩탎A뗄늩?뻹뫢훐쇬쿈헟틲듋,퓚컞퇐랢춶죫돉놾쪱,컞싛닺욷짺쏼훜뻟폐햼쿈폅쫆ꆣ웚뎤뛌,쮫춷슢뛏쫐뎡뗄닺욷뾪랢뺺헹뻹돉캪햼쿈늩?,쟒퓚쫐뎡췪좫뢲룇쪱뻟폐쇬쿈헟폅쫆ꆣ(2)퓚쫐뎡캴놻슢뛏뢲룇쟩탎쿂^ꆡ듦퓚퇐뺿폫랢햹돉놾뗄쟩뿶s2-sL(s1)=ꇒs^2-t1es1dt+ꇒN-tee^11s22dt듦퓚퇐랢돉놾쪱,놾컄뗄럖컶죏캪퓚A쟩탎쿂ss^142(4^s2-s1)늩?뗄뻹뫢뇭쿖캪햼쿈뺺헹;뛸퓚B쟩탎쿂,쫓닺2-s1F(s1)=ꇒN^s-te4^s22dts^욷짺쏼웚N뗄듳킡릹돉쇋늻춬뗄늩?뻹뫢:N뷏킡2(4^s2-s1)쪱닺욷뾪랢뺺헹릹퓬캪듸폐뻹뗈쫕틦뗄햼쿈늩?;ꆡꆡ평폚9F(s1)-2^s2-s1=-s^4^22-Ns92s^3(e-e)<0,1(4s2-s1)N뷏듳쪱뚯첬늩?닺짺뻟폐룺쯦헟폅쫆뗄ퟓ늩?뺫뿉횪룺쯦헟뗄쫕틦쫇쯦ퟅ쇬쿈헟뷸죫쪱볤뗄퓶듳뛸솶쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ복킡뗄ꆣ춬쪱룹뻝H[8]oppe벰Lehmann-G[11]rube(1)쫐뎡놻쮫춷슢뛏쯹뢲룇쿂뗄늩?럖컶뗄럖컶,훁짙듦퓚튻룶s1’쪹뗃F(s1’)<L(s1’),쟒퓚L(s1)=ꇒs^2-t1es1dt+쟸볤s14[0,s1’]L(s1)떥뗷퓶볓ꆣ죧맻횱뷓펦폃쇬쿈헟뫍룺쯦헟뗄쫕틦몯쫽,뿉뗃L(0)=0<L(s1’),LꇒN2-t1-2ate^(s2-s1)dt-ꇒs1-eꛋtdts^230(0)<F(0)ꆣ뾼싇L(s1’)>F(0)뫍L(s1’)ꇜF(=20)솽훖쟩뿶,뿉ퟶ춼1뫍춼2ꆣF(s1)=ꇒN-t2-ae^(s2-s1)dt-s^23ꇒs^2-teꛋtdt0퓚헢솽훖쟩뿶쿂,ퟮ훕퓚뗣3s1=S1뒦,쇬쿈ꆡꆡ폫닺욷짺쏼웚컞쿞(N=0)쪱뗄쫕틦몯쫽쿠뇈
ꆡ퓶뾯슥룟쿨퓸주탇:믹폚닺욷짺쏼훜웚뗄쮫맑춷쫐뎡닺욷뾪랢뺺헹ꆤ199ꆤ뷏,닮횵럖뇰캪:룹뻝춼4,뷡맻튲쫇퓚뗣3s1뒦솽룶웳튵뒦폚춬ꚤ2L1-2a^-N(s1)=-(s2-s뗈쫕틦뗄뻹뫢훐,벴F(S1)=L3(s1),벴솽룶웳튵1)e3춬쪱뷸죫쫐뎡늢믱뗃쿠뗈뗄쫕틦ꆣꚤ2F(s1)=2-a^-N-(s2-s1)e쯹틔,헢튻닺욷뾪랢뺺헹릹퓬캪듸폐뻹뗈쫕틦3ꆡꆡ헢틢캶ퟅ죧맻닺욷듦퓚짺쏼훜웚쪱,쇬쿈헟뫍뗄햼쿈늩?ꆣ룺쯦헟뗄쫕틦뚼쿂붵쇋,뛸쟒폫쇬쿈헟쿠뇈,룺쯦헟ꋚN뷏듳ꆣ뛔폚쯹폐퓚쟸볤[0,s1’]뗄s1,뚼폐뗄쫕틦쿂붵뗃룼뿬튻킩ꆣ쿔좻,평폚믘놨웚뗄쯵뛌L(s1)<F(s1)ꆣ헢쪱뗄뷡맻춬닺욷짺쏼웚컞쿞뗄B,튻떩쇬쿈헟뗄뷸죫쪱볤췭폚쒳튻쳘뚨쪱뿌쟩탎쿂럖컶,벴뚯첬늩?닺짺뻟폐룺쯦헟폅쫆뗄ퟓsu(su<N),웤쫕틦붫캪뢺횵,튲뻍쫇쮵퓚쪱뿌늩?뺫솶쓉쪲뻹뫢,뻟쳥죧춼5쯹쪾ꆣsu횮뫳뗄쫕틦늻ퟣ틔쫕믘퓚쪱뿌su횮잰웳튵춶죫뗄퇐뺿뫍랢햹돉놾ꆣ룹뻝짏쫶쏨쫶,뿉뗃춼3ꆣ쿔좻,늩?뗄뷡맻쿔쪾헢죔좻쫇튻룶뻟폐쇬쿈헟폅쫆뗄햼쿈뺺헹ꆣ춼4ꆡꛋꇙ0,쫐뎡캴놻뢲룇,쫙쏼캪N늢뷏킡춼3ꆡꛋꇙ0,쫐뎡캴놻뢲룇,쫙쏼캪N>F(0)(2)쫐뎡캴놻쮫춷슢뛏쯹뢲룇쿂뗄늩?럖컶1L(s1)=ꇒs^2-tes1dt+s14ꇒN^s-t2-s1-tee^1s22dt-s^2(4^s2-sꇒs1eꛋtdt,춼5ꆡꛋꇙ0,쫐뎡캴놻뢲룇,쫙쏼캪N늢뷏듳1)0^F-t2-s1(s1)=ꇒNe4^2ss23ꆡ뷡싛폫뷢쫍2dt-s^2(4^s2-s1)ꇒs1-teꛋtdt,0ꆡꆡ폫닺욷짺쏼웚컞쿞(N=0)쪱뗄쫕틦몯쫽쿠뇈뷏,닮횵럖뇰캪놾컄뛔뻟폐짺쏼훜웚뗄쮫춷슢뛏쫐뎡닺욷뾪랢:뺺헹뷸탐쇋늩?뗄뻹뫢럖컶ꆣ^ꚤssL^2-1(s1)=-N-s1s쫗쿈,뾼싇컞퇐랢돉놾뗄쟩뿶:죧맻늻듦퓚퇐랢22e(4^s2-s1)돉놾,벴ꛋ=0쪱,퓚쟩탎A(쫐뎡놻쮫춷슢뛏웳튵쯹^ꚤF2s2-s1-N(s1)=-4^s뢲룇)믲쟩탎B(쫐뎡캴놻뢲룇)쿂,닺욷뾪랢뗄뺺22e(4^s2-s1)ꆡꆡ룹뻝N뗄늻춬,듦퓚쿂쫶솽훖쟩탎헹뻹릹퓬캪햼쿈늩?,쟒퓚쟩탎A쿂뻟폐쇬쿈헟폅:ꋙN뷏킡ꆣ볙짨L(s1)캪떥럥횵쟺쿟쫆ꆣ헢쫇틲캪솽룶웳튵뚼죏캪,퓚쮫춷슢뛏뷗뛎,춨,늢퓚s1맽쫗쿈뷸죫쫐뎡믱뗃퓝쪱뗄슢뛏뗘캻뇈룟훊솿뗄햽=s1뒦’좡뗃ퟮ듳횵,뷏킡뗄N쪹뗃뛔폚쟸볤[0,s1’]싔폅쫆룼폐볛횵ꆣ틲듋,탂닺욷뗄뾪랢뺺헹퓚퇐랢뗄쒳킩s1,폐L(s1)>F(s1)ꆣ퓲뇘듦퓚3s1<s1’,돉놾캪쇣쪱릹퓬캪튻훖햼쿈뺺헹ꆣ쪹뗃L3(s1)=F3(s1)ꆣ뻟쳥죧춼4쯹쪾ꆣ웤듎,떱듦퓚퇐랢돉놾쪱,퓚A쟩탎쿂늩?뗄
ꆤ200ꆤ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ퇐ꆡ뺿뗚23뻭ꆡ뻹뫢뇭쿖캪햼쿈뺺헹;뛸퓚B쟩탎쿂,쫓닺욷짺쏼Organization,2002,49:97-112.웚N뗄듳킡릹돉쇋늻춬뗄늩?뻹뫢:N뷏킡쪱닺욷[3]ꆡHansHBauer,뾪랢뺺헹릹퓬캪듸폐뻹뗈쫕틦뗄햼쿈늩?;N뷏듳ternsforpharmaceuticalsandtheirimpactonR&Dprof2쪱뚯첬늩?닺짺뻟폐룺쯦헟폅쫆뗄ퟓ늩?뺫솶쓉쪲itabilityoflatemoverproducts[J].InternationalBusi2뻹뫢ꆣnessReview,2000,9:703-725.쓇쎴[4]ꆡ,marketperformance,andcompe2,퓚폐퇐뺿폫랢햹돉놾뗄쟩탎B쿂,룺쯦헟웳튵뇈쇬쿈헟폐ퟅ룼뎤쪱볤뗄퇐랢춶죫,떫캪쪲tition:Lessonsfromaproductlifecyclemodel[J].Technovation,2003,23:281-290.쎴룟퇐랢돉놾뮹뿉쓜믡폐샻폚룺쯦헟쓘?틲캪돽쇋[5]ꆡ:A헢튻횱뷓돉놾펰쿬췢,떥캻쪱볤퇐랢돉놾뗄퓶볓폐gametheoreticapproach[J].ReviewofEconomicStud2쿂쇐볤뷓펰쿬:ies,1981,XLVIII:395-405.(1)룺쯦헟뒴탂쪱볤풽퓧,믡뛔쇬쿈헟뗄슢뛏[6]ꆡ싀쳎,췵헰짹.닺욷뒴탂쇬쿈웳튵뺺헹폅쫆퇐뺿[J].돖탸쪱볤뫍쇬쿈헟뗄쮫춷슢뛏샻죳닺짺뢺쏦펰쿬훐맺맜샭뿆톧,2001,9(1):74-80.[7]ꆡDuttaPK,SLach,(9R1/9s2>0),벴:ly:Verticaldifferentiationintheadoptionofanewtech2nology[J].JournalofEconomicsandManagement9RA21=1-2a2s>0,뫍9RB1=1s2+2s1Strategy,1995,(4):>09s23s2(4s2-s1)ꆡꆡ(2)쇬쿈헟뷸죫쫐뎡풽퓧,믡뛔룺쯦헟뗄쮫춷[8]ꆡ[J].Inter2슢뛏샻죳닺짺헽쏦펰쿬(9R2/9s1<0),벴:nationalJournalofIndustrialOrganization,2000,18:9RA22315-338.=2-a9RB<2-2ss0,=2-193<0s139s1(4s2-s1)[9]ꆡFudenbergD,ꆡꆡ뫜쏷쿔,떱퇐랢돉놾룟쪱,헢킩볤뷓펰쿬뇈횱뷓intheadoptionofnewtechnology[J].ReviewofEco2뗄퇐랢돉놾펰쿬룼훘튪,늢ퟮ훕떼훂쇋룺쯦헟폅쫆ꆣnomicStudies,1985,52:383-401.[10]ꆡJeanTirole.닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛[M].놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳톧닎뾼컄쿗돶냦짧,1998.:[11]ꆡ[1]ꆡ:Thepersistenceofthehighqualityad2overtheindustrylifecycle[J].ReviewofEconomicDvantage[J].RANDJournalofEconomics,1997,28:ynamics,2001,4(2):460-494.[2]ꆡ[J].JournalofEconomicBehavior&Second2moveradvantagesintechnologicalinnovationandmarketentrantLOUGao2xiang,ZENGSai2xing(SchoolofManagement,ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity,Shanghai200052,China)Abstract:(R&D)havedirecteffectsonthegameꆯ,nomatterwhetherR&&Deffort2consuming,:second2moveradvantages;marketentrant;dynamicgame
