쿠뛔맀볛램움맀룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾볛횵뗄퇐뺿[햪ꆡ튪]첽쳖폃쿠뛔맀볛램뛔훐맺룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾뷸탐볛횵움맀뗄쪵폃탔뫍뻖쿞탔ꆣ쫗쿈,룟뿆벼웳튵붫듳솿샻죳춶폚탂닺욷퇐랢,떱닉폃쯹폐짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪ퟜ퇹놾쯹믱좡뗄믹ힼ뇈싊뛔룃샠릫쮾뷸탐볛횵움맀쪱,웤횵췹췹욫뗍ꆣ웤듎,룷뇈싊릤뻟뛔룟뿆벼웳튵뗄뚨볛컳닮듦퓚닮틬,ힼ좷탔폐룟폐뗍ꆣퟮ뫳,룟뿆벼웳튵뗄룟럧쿕뫍쫕틦뗄늻좷뚨탔떼훂뛔룃샠릫쮾캴살쿖뷰쇷쓑틔맀쯣,쪹폃쫐펯싊뛔웤뚨볛늻ힼ좷ꆣ[맘볼듊]뇈싊;룟뿆벼웳튵;볛횵움맀;볛횵뚯틲[훐춼럖샠뫅]F830191ꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1006-0766(2006)05-0070-07룟뿆벼웳튵폫뒫춳웳튵쿠뇈뻟폐룼듳뗄퇐랢럑폃횧돶뇈샽,뻟폐룼룟뗄쫕틦싊,늢냩쯦ퟅ룼듳뗄럧쿕ꆣ평폚룟뿆벼웳튵,쳘뇰쫇틔볆쯣믺벼쫵캪믹뒡뗄IT웳튵뫍틔짺컯뿆톧캪듺뇭뗄짺컯튽튩웳튵뗄룟럧쿕뫍쫕틦뗄늻좷뚨탔,쯹틔,폃DCF맀볛램뫜쓑뛔웤볛횵뷸탐ힼ좷뗄움맀[1]ꆣ틲듋,퓚쪵볹훐,춶헟룼뛠뗄닉폃쿠뛔맀볛램(뇈싊맀볆램[2])뛔룟뿆벼웳튵뷸탐뚨볛ꆣ튻ꆢ훐맺룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾볛횵움맀뗄컊쳢벰탞헽랽램쪵볹훐,움맀웳튵볛횵튻냣닉폃쫕틦램[3]ꆢ쿠뛔맀볛램[4]뫍웚좨뚨볛램[5][6]ꆣ맺쓚톧헟뎣샻폃웚좨뚨볛램뛔룟뿆벼웳튵뷸탐볛횵움맀ꆣ쫦횾뇳뫍삼틋짺[7]틔짺컯튽튩샠뫍뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠짏쫐릫쮾캪ퟜ퇹놾,룹뻝놾닺뚨볛쒣탍(CAPM)뗃돶쇋컒맺룟뿆벼룅쓮막쫐펯싊뗄믘맩쒣탍,쯻쏇죏캪:ꆰ컒맺룟뿆벼룅쓮막뗄욽뻹쫕틦싊훷튪평ퟜ럧쿕뻶뚨,놾닺뚨볛쒣탍샭싛늻쫊폃폚컒맺룟뿆벼룅쓮막욱뗄쫐뎡뚨볛ꆣꆱ뚭퇓낲뫍량쿨[5]퓋폃웚좨뚨볛쒣탍뛔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾훐뗄뿇풴뷸탐볛횵움맀뫳죏캪:ꆰ벴쪹늻뗖햮뗄짏쫐릫쮾,뿇풴볛횵튲쫇듳폚쇣뗄ꆣꆱ췵뾡생[8]폃헛쿖쿖뷰쇷DCF램볆쯣릫쮾뗄볛횵,늢폃놾닺뚨볛쒣탍(CAPM)볆쯣웳튵뗄웚좨볛횵,늢붫솽헟쿠볓틔믱뗃웳튵뗄헦쪵볛횵ꆣ쯻죏캪ꆰ퓋폃웚좨뚨볛벼쫵살뗷헻내헛쿖쿖뷰쇷솿램움맀뗄웳튵볛횵,컞틉믡쪹웳튵랢햹믺폶헢튻튪쯘쓜퓚웳튵볛횵훐뗃틔돤럖쳥쿖,듓뛸쪹움맀횵뷸튻늽쟷쿲뫏샭ꆱꆣ퓚맺췢,춶헟뫍퇐뺿죋풱웕뇩뗘닉폃뇈싊맀볛램뛔릫쮾볛횵뷸탐움맀,쳘뇰쫇헫뛔틔IT웳튵캪듺뇭뗄룟뿆벼웳튵,듓뛸퓚톧쫵짏뫍쪵볹훐뚼뗃돶쇋탭뛠훘튪뗄뻟폐쪵볊틢틥뗄뷡싛ꆣ뇈싊램뻍쫇붫뿉뇈릫쮾뗄붻틗볛룱뫍릫쮾쫐횵폫뺭펪튵벨믲닆컱ힴ뿶(벴볛횵뚯틲ValueDriver)쿠돽,뗃돶돋쫽,퓙샻폃룃돋쫽뫍쒿뇪릫쮾뗄뺭펪튵벨믲닆컱ힴ뿶뗃떽쒿뇪릫쮾뗄붻틗볛룱뫍쫐횵ꆣ떫뛔컒맺짏쫐뗄룟뿆벼웳튵뷸탐볛횵움맀쪱폶떽쇋삧쓑ꆣ평폚컒맺쳘폐뗄막좨뷡릹쳘헷,떼훂컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄볛횵폐뫜듳늿럖늻쓜평쫐뎡뚨볛,틲듋,퓚ퟶ쿠맘뗄퇐뺿쪱,늻쓜헕냡맺췢뗄퇐뺿랽램뫍뷡싛ꆣ
2006쓪뗚5웚킻횾뎬,헔닽컄,뛅붭:쿠뛔맀볛램움맀룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾볛횵뗄퇐뺿ꆤ71ꆤ퓚캴뷸탐막좨럖훃룄룯횮잰,훐맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄막좨뷡릹돊룮쇑ힴ첬ꆣ맺폐막ꆢ램죋막늻쓜ퟔ평쇷춨ꆣ쒿잰퓚쫐뎡짏쇷춨뗄횻폐릫훚막ꆣ듓훐맺막욱쫐뎡뗄쳘뗣폫퇐뺿볛횵뗄뷇뛈뾴,훐맺막욱쫐뎡럖룮뗄쿖ힴ뿉룅삨캪럇쇷춨막폫쇷춨막솽샠췪좫늻춬뗄막럝[9]ꆣ럇쇷춨막듳늿럖쫇내헕막욱쏦횵헛볛죫막뗄,뛸쇷춨막퓲쫇내헕듳듳룟폚막욱쏦횵뗄쫐뎡볛뷸죫쫐뎡뗄ꆣ캪쇋돤럖뾼싇훐맺막좨뷡릹뗄쿖ힴ,퇐뺿럖캪솽룶뷗뛎:벴캴뾼싇럇쇷춨막뗄쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵움맀뫍볓죫럇쇷춨막뫳짏쫐릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵뗄움맀ꆣ룹뻝퇐뺿뗄솽룶뷗뛎,짏쫐릫쮾뗄쫐횵폐솽룶뚨틥:튻쫇쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵(V쇷),뛾쫇짏쫐릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵(Vퟜ)ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽죧쿂:V쇷=AV-SV+P쇷ꇁN쇷(1)Vퟜ=V쇷+APSꇁN럇=AV-SV+P쇷ꇁN쇷+APSꇁN럇(2)웤훐,AV뇭쪾닺헋쏦횵,SV뇭쪾막뚫좨틦헋쏦횵,P쇷뇭쪾쇷춨막뗄쫐뎡볛룱,N쇷뇭쪾쇷춨막뗄막쫽,APS뇭쪾쎿막뺻닺,N럇뇭쪾럇쇷춨막뗄막쫽ꆣ듋췢,탨튪뚨틥죽훖샠탍뗄막욱볛룱:튻쫇볆쯣쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵뫍볆쯣움맀룃쫐횵뗄쫐펯싊뇈싊뗄쇷춨막막볛,룃막볛벴캪뛾벶붻틗쫐뎡뗄막욱볛룱;뛾쫇볆쯣릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵쪱뗄럇쇷춨막막볛;죽쫇볆쯣움맀릫쮾ퟜ쫐횵뗄쫐펯싊P/E쪱뗄볓좨막볛ꆣ놾컄붫쎿막뺻닺ퟷ캪럇쇷춨막뗄막볛,볓좨막볛쫇캪쇋볆쯣움맀릫쮾ퟜ쫐횵뗄쫐펯싊P/Eꆣ캪쇋랴펳쇷춨막폫럇쇷춨막뗄뇈샽뛔짏쫐릫쮾쫐횵뗄펰쿬,놾컄닉폃볓좨뗄랽램뛔막욱볛룱뷸탐뒦샭,웤볓좨막볛(P볓)뗄볆쯣릫쪽캪:P볓=N럇/(N럇+N쇷)ꇁAPS+N쇷/(N럇+N쇷)ꇁP쇷(3)뛾ꆢ쫽뻝뫍볛횵움맀랽램놾컄쯹쪹폃뗄짏쫐릫쮾닆컱쫽뻝살풴폚쿣룛샭릤듳톧믡볆폫뷰죚퇐뺿훐탄뫍짮?쫐맺첩낲탅쾢벼쫵폐쿞릫쮾쯹쳡릩뗄쫐뎡붻틗쫽뻝뿢(CSUAR)뫍닆컱쫽뻝뿢(CSMAR),듓훐쳡좡쇋뮦짮솽쫐짏쫐릫쮾2001쓪뛈훷튪닆컱쫽뻝뫍쫐뎡붻틗쫽뻝ꆣ퇘폃2001쓪뗄쫽뻝돽쇋뿉틔뫍뛅붭ꆢ헔닽컄뫍킻횾뎬[10]뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뷸탐뇈뷏횮췢,룼훘튪뗄쫇뫍헢벸쓪훐맺막쫐뷸죫뗍쏔웚뫳룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾볛횵뗄쪵볊뇤뮯뷸탐뇈뷏,틔좷뚨룃랽램뗄쪵폃탔뫍뻖쿞탔ꆣ(튻)뇈싊뚨틥벰춳볆쳘헷컒쏇닉폃7훖뇈싊ퟷ캪맀볛뗄릤뻟,웤뚨틥평뇭1쯹쪾ꆣ뇭1ꆡ볛횵움맀뗄뇈싊뚨틥뇈싊뚨틥쫐펯싊P/E쓪쒩릫쮾웕춨막뗄막볛폫쎿막욽뻹쫕틦뗄뇈싊풤웚뗄쫐펯싊쓪쒩웕춨막막볛폫듎쓪풤웚뗄욽뻹쎿막쫕틦뗄뇈싊쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫쓪쒩뗄릫쮾볛횵폫쓪뛈훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄뇈싊쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵쓪쒩뗄릫쮾볛횵폫릫쮾닺헋쏦횵뗄뇈싊쫐횵/훷펪튵컱샻죳쓪쒩뗄릫쮾볛횵폫릫쮾훷펪튵컱샻죳뗄뇈싊쫐횵/펪튵샻죳쓪쒩뗄릫쮾볛횵폫릫쮾펪튵샻죳뗄뇈싊쫐횵/샻죳ퟜ뛮쓪쒩뗄릫쮾볛횵폫릫쮾샻죳ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊
ꆤ72ꆤ쯄뒨듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)ퟜ뗚146웚ꆡꆡ뇭2뗄A늿럖틔980볒짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪ퟜ퇹놾뗄춳볆탅쾢쳘헷,닺헋쏦횵뗄뻹횵캪18945317췲풪,뻓훐캻쫽뗄릫쮾웤닺횵캪11866216췲풪,늻몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵(벴:닺헋쏦횵복막욱헋쏦횵,퓙볓짏쇷춨뗄막욱쫐볛)뗄뻹횵캪20618013췲풪,뻓훐캻쫽뗄릫쮾쫐횵캪15365615췲풪ꆣ릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵(쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵볓짏럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵)뗄뻹횵캪32926714췲풪,뻓훐캻쫽뗄릫쮾웤횵캪22925318췲풪ꆣ뺻샻죳폫닺헋쏦횵뗄뇈싊뗄뻹횵캪01006,훐캻쫽캪01032,쿖뷰벰웤뗈볛컯폫닺헋쏦횵뗄뇈싊뗄뻹횵캪01176,훐캻쫽캪01146ꆣ춬쪱,튲뿉틔뾴떽,쎿쿮횸뇪뗄훐캻쫽폫뻹횵횮볤듦퓚뫜듳닮틬ꆣ듓춳볆솿뗄훐캻쫽폫뻹횵볤뗄뻞듳닮틬뻍뿉틔뾴돶,헢킩쫽뻝샫즢돌뛈뷏듳ꆣ뇭2ꆡ춳볆쫽뻝햪튪퇹놾ퟜ쫽980뫢솿릤뻟뻹횵훐캻쫽뗚튻쯄럖캻쫽뗚죽쯄럖캻쫽A.춳볆쫽뻝닺헋쏦횵(췲풪)1894531711866216756551721182119훷펪튵컱쫕죫(췲풪)102259185074415235561810340310샻죳ퟜ뛮(췲풪)663413464218162810950317쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵(췲풪)20618013153656151100141123833416릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵(췲풪)32926714229253181617931137021515훷펪튵컱샻죳/닺헋쏦횵01102010900106001132뺻샻죳/닺헋쏦횵01006010320101201051쿖뷰벰웤뗈볛컯/닺헋쏦횵01176011460108001244B.볛횵움맀뗄뇈싊B1쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵쫐펯싊풤웚쫐펯싊1721116217632144130185쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫7139311911875165쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵1140112711041157쫐횵/훷펪튵컱샻죳1512713150817021107쫐횵/펪튵샻죳-67124261221013147136쫐횵/샻죳ퟜ뛮45139241601317941183B2릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵쫐펯싊85111351272117361122풤웚쫐펯싊99145381872013783165쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫9183417421968105쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵2103118911682119쫐횵/훷펪튵컱샻죳24107201361319730158쫐횵/펪튵샻죳-81126391031817570165쫐횵/샻죳ퟜ뛮65102361762112661178뇭2뗄B늿럖룸돶쇋퓚늻몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄릫쮾볛횵뫍릫쮾ퟜ볛횵움맀뗄7훖뇈싊뗄춳볆뷡맻ꆣ1.퓚늻몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄쇷춨쫐뎡릫쮾볛횵뗄움맀뇈싊훐,떱웚쫐펯싊뗄뻹횵캪150111,훐캻쫽캪57181,뛸풤웚쫐펯싊뗄뻹횵캪172111,훐캻쫽캪62176,믹폚닺헋쏦횵뫍훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄뇈싊뗄뻹횵뫍훐캻쫽뷏킡,쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄뻹횵캪7139,쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵뗄뻹횵캪114ꆣ2.퓚릫쮾뗄ퟜ볛횵뗄움맀뇈싊훐,믹폚닺헋쏦횵뫍훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄뇈싊뗄뻹횵뫍훐캻쫽뷏킡ꆣ평폚릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵훐볓죫쇋럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵,쯹틔웤룷쿮뇈싊ퟜ쳥살붲뇈늻몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾볛횵뇈
2006쓪뗚5웚킻횾뎬,헔닽컄,뛅붭:쿠뛔맀볛램움맀룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾볛횵뗄퇐뺿ꆤ73ꆤ싊횵듳ꆣ듓ퟜ쳥춳볆쫽뻝럖컶,뻸듳뛠쫽뇈싊뗄뻹횵뚼뇈훐캻쫽듳,폐뗄뇈싊뗄뻹횵뇈훐캻쫽듳뫜뛠,죧쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾쫐횵움맀훐,쫐펯싊뗄뻹횵캪150111,뛸훐캻쫽캪57181,쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄뻹횵캪7139,뛸훐캻쫽캪3119,퓚릫쮾ퟜ쫐횵뗄움맀뇈싊훐,헢튻쿖쿳튲뫜쏷쿔ꆣ헢쮵쏷컒쏇뗄퇹놾쫽뻝퓚춳볆짏뗄욵쫽럖늼늢늻쏷쿔뗘럾듓헽첬럖늼,뛸쫇쿲폒쟣킱ꆣ듓뾼싇럇쇷춨막볛횵잰뫳뗄춳볆뷡맻훐뿉틔랢쿖:1.뾼싇쇋럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵뫳,쫐펯싊뗄횵쿔훸붵뗍쇋,틲캪퓚볆쯣쫐펯싊쪱,쪹폃뗄늻퓙쫇쇷춨막뗄막볛,뛸쫇볓좨막볛ꆣ쇷춨막뗄막볛쫇춶헟뛔릫쮾캴살쫕틦뗄풤웚,쯤좻쓜쳥쿖돶쫐뎡뚨볛뗄뫏샭탔,떫럇쇷춨막뗄뗍돉놾늢캴뾼싇뷸좥,컞싛듓맺쓚뗄쿠맘퇐뺿뮹쫇듓맺폐막복돖뗄쪵볹훐뚼쓜릻랢쿖뾼싇럇쇷춨막뫳뗄막볛쫇쿂뗸뗄ꆣ놾컄닉폃볓좨뗄랽램좷뚨짏쫐릫쮾쯹폐막욱뗄볛룱,뗃떽뗄뷡맻폫튻냣샭싛뗄뷡싛쫇쿠튻훂뗄;2.뾼싇쇋럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵뫳,틔쫐횵캪놻돽쫽뗄뇈싊횵쿠펦뗄퓶볓쇋;3.뇭2뗄B늿럖훐,쫐횵/펪튵샻죳뗄뇈싊횵뚼캪뢺쫽,쮵쏷2001쓪뛈탭뛠짏쫐릫쮾쫇뿷쯰뗄,믲헟훁짙웤펪튵샻죳쫇뢺쫽ꆣ(뛾)뿉뇈릫쮾뗄쪶뇰폫볛횵움맀랽램Alford[11]뛔톡퓱춬샠탍뗄릫쮾쯹닺짺뗄펰쿬럖컶훐,랢쿖뛔살ퟔ춬튻탐튵뗄샠쯆릫쮾뷸탐뚨볛쪱,닉폃P/E닺짺뗄컳닮ퟮ킡ꆣ캪쇋쪹볆쯣컳닮듯떽ퟮ킡,놾컄튲내탐튵럖샠뇪ힼSIC뛔뻟폐뿉뾿쫽뻝뗄릫쮾ꋙ뷸탐럖컶,늢폃죽캻쫽뗄SIC뇠싫뛔쯹폐뗄릫쮾뷸탐럖샠,ퟮ훕좷뚨쫴폚짺컯튽튩샠뫍뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠뗄짏쫐릫쮾ꆣ룹뻝릫쮾닆컱쫽뻝뗄쳘뗣,놾컄훷튪틔춳볆솿뗄훐볤횵뗄뇈싊뛔릫쮾뷸탐뚨볛,쫐펯싊뫍풤웚쫐펯싊폃폚뫢솿릫쮾웕춨막뗄볛횵,웤쯻뇈싊폃폚뫢솿릫쮾뗄볛횵ꆣ닎뾼Kaplan&Ruback[12]벰Kim&R[13]itter뫍Gilson뗈죋[14]뗄ퟷ램,놾컄틔릫쮾쪵볊뗄뇈싊횵폫춨맽뿉뇈릫쮾볆쯣뗄믹ힼ뇈싊횮짌뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽ퟷ캪뫢솿뚨볛컳닮ꋚ뗄틀뻝ꆣ쫗쿈쫇춨맽뻸듳뛠쫽A막짏쫐릫쮾볆쯣뗃돶믹ힼ뇈싊,좻뫳춨맽쯦믺돩좡맛달퇹놾,좡웤뻹횵ꆢ훐캻쫽ꆢ뗚튻쯄럖뗣ꆢ뗚죽쯄럖뗣짏뗄뇈싊횵ퟷ캪늻춬릫쮾뗄쪵볊뇈싊횵,퓙뛔쪵볊뇈싊횵폫믹ힼ뇈싊횵뗄짌뗄뻸뛔횵좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽,틔듋에뛏룷훖뇈싊릤뻟뚨볛뗄컳닮ꆣ죽ꆢ룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾볛횵움맀뗄뷡맻럖컶룟뿆벼웳튵붫샻죳뗄뫜듳늿럖폃폚탂벼쫵ꆢ탂닺욷뗄퇐랢,틲듋,룟퇐랢럑폃횧돶뇈샽틑뺭돉캪뇦뇰룟뿆벼웳튵뗄튻룶훘튪쳘헷,뛸헢튻쳘헷튲쪹뗃뛔룃샠릫쮾뗄뚨볛룼볓삧쓑ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔,헢샠릫쮾뗄볛횵뗄뫜킡늿럖랴펳폚쿖퓚쯹펵폐뗄닺뫍막욱볛횵,뛸웤볛횵뗄뫜듳늿럖잱퓚폚캴살늻좷뚨뗄랢햹믺믡ꆣ헢킩릫쮾룟뛮뗄퇐랢럑폃붵뗍쇋릫쮾뗄떱잰샻죳,벴쪹냑헢킩퇐랢쿮쒿뾴ퟶ쫇뛔캴살뗄춶,죔좻퓶볓쇋뛔헢킩릫쮾뚨볛뗄뢴퓓탔ꆣ뛔듋,믹폚샻죳뗄뇈싊릤뻟(쫐횵/훷펪튵컱샻죳,쫐횵/펪튵샻죳,쫐펯싊뗈)뿉쓜늢늻쫊폚뛔헢샠릫쮾뗄뚨볛,웤뚨볛뿉쓜욫뗍ꆣ퓚뛔룟뛮퇐랢럑폃릫쮾뗄뚨볛맽돌훐,듦퓚헢퇹튻룶컊쳢,룟뿆벼웳튵뿉쓜벯훐폚쒳벸룶탐튵,룷탐튵훐뗄릫쮾뻟폐샠쯆뗄퇐랢횧돶쮮욽뫍퇐랢횧돶뷡릹,죧맻쇽춳뗘뛔룟뿆벼웳튵뷸탐럖컶,믡쪹컒쏇뗄릫쮾퇹놾뻟폐튻뚨뗄ꆰ닣듎쳝뛈탔ꆱ,캪쇋뇜쏢헢룶컊쳢,퓚뛔룷룶탐튵뷸탐뇈뷏뫳,놾컄톡퓱뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄뗧ퟓ탅쾢탐튵뫍짺컯튽튩탐튵ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꆣ(튻)늻몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄릫쮾볛횵움맀뷡맻럖컶뇭3뗄A늿럖쿔쪾쇋뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠릫쮾뚨볛욫닮뗄탅쾢ꆣ헻쳥살쮵,뛔뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠릫쮾뗄맀볛컳닮뷏듳,떫늢늻쫇늻뿉뷓쫜ꆣ쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵뗄뇈싊횵캪0102,뛸쫐횵/샻죳ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊횵캪-01086ꆣ춳볆쫽뻝뗄뷡맻폫뛔룃샠릫쮾뚨볛욫뗍뗄볙짨튻훂,릫쮾닺뗄뇈싊(쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵)뗄ꋙ뻟폐뿉뾿쫽뻝뗄릫쮾쫇횸냑쫽뻝뿢훐폐닆컱쫽뻝틅슩뗄릫쮾쳞돽뫳쪣폠뗄릫쮾,뇣폚룷훖뇈싊릤뻟뗄볆쯣뫍뇈뷏ꆣꋚ볆쯣뚨볛컳닮뗄릫쪽:E뇭쪾뚨볛컳닮,R뇭쪾릫쮾뗄쪵볊뇈싊횵,B뇭쪾춨맽뿉뇈릫쮾볆쯣뗄믹ힼ뇈싊횵;E=0뇭쪾뚨볛컞컳닮,E>0뇭쪾뛔룃릫쮾뗄볛횵움맀욫룟,E<0뇭쪾뛔룃릫쮾뗄볛횵움맀욫뗍ꆣ
ꆤ74ꆤ쯄뒨듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)ퟜ뗚146웚뻹횵캪-0102,헢뇭쪾릫쮾쪵볊볛횵쫇웤맀볆횵뗄1102놶ꋙ,뛸릫쮾훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄뇈싊(쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫)뗄뻹횵캪-01613,뇭쪾릫쮾쪵볊볛횵쫇웤맀볆횵쫇11846놶,헢뚼쮵쏷폃뇈싊릤뻟뛔룃샠릫쮾뚨볛쪱,웤볛횵췹췹놻뗍맀ꆣ쇭췢,듓뇭3뗄B늿럖뛔짺컯튽튩릫쮾뚨볛컳닮뗄춳볆탅쾢훐늻쓑랢쿖,웤뷡맻럇뎣샠쯆폚뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠릫쮾,떫뇈뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠릫쮾뚨볛뗄욫닮듳ꆣ듳늿럖뇈싊릤뻟랴펳뗄컳닮횵캪뢺,헢튲잡잡쮵쏷닉폃뇈싊뚨볛램뛔짺컯튽튩샠릫쮾뗄뚨볛췹췹욫뗍ꆣ믹폚닺헋쏦횵뗄뇈싊닺짺뗄욫닮ퟮ킡,뛸믹폚펪튵샻죳뗄뇈싊닺짺뗄컳닮ퟮ듳ꆣ뇭3ꆡ뻟폐뷏룟퇐랢럑폃뗄릫쮾쇷춨쫐뎡뗄쫐횵맛달퇹놾뗄뚨볛컳닮막욱볛룱뚨볛쫐횵뚨볛쫐횵/쫐횵/쫐횵/쫐횵/쫐횵/뫢솿릤뻟쫐펯싊풤웚쫐펯싊훷펪닺훷펪튵펪튵샻죳쫕죫헋쏦횵컱샻죳샻죳ퟜ뛮A.탅쾢벼쫵샠릫쮾뻹횵2113150102120161320102020111801120201076훐캻쫽01241110402019690111320145301800201437뻹횵뻸뛔컳닮훐캻쫽뻸뛔컳닮뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈샽맛달퇹놾쫽38403736353936B.짺컯튽튩샠릫쮾뻹횵훐캻쫽뻹횵뻸뛔컳닮훐캻쫽뻸뛔컳닮뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈샽0000000맛달퇹놾쫽52505151554952ꆡꆡ힢:퓚뇭훐,폐6룶횵탨튪춳볆뫍볆쯣,벴:뻹횵ꆪꆪꆪ뻹횵컳닮;훐캻쫽ꆪꆪꆪ훐횵컳닮;뻹횵뻸뛔컳닮ꆪꆪꆪ뻹횵뗄뻸뛔컳닮;훐캻쫽뻸뛔컳닮ꆪꆪꆪ훐횵뗄뻸뛔컳닮;뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈샽ꆪꆪꆪ뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾퓚맛달퇹놾훐뗄뇈샽;뗚튻쯄럖캻쫽ꆪꆪꆪ퇹놾춳볆솿짽탲업쇐퓚25%캻훃짏뗄횵뗄컳닮;뗚죽쯄럖캻쫽ꆪꆪꆪ퇹놾춳볆솿짽탲업쇐퓚75%캻훃짏뗄횵뗄컳닮;맛달퇹놾쫽ꆪꆪꆪ퇹놾뗄맛달쫽ꆣ뒦샭랽램:퓚ퟜ퇹놾훐쯦믺돩좡맛달퇹놾,춳볆웤맛달퇹놾쫽ꆣ붫맛달퇹놾내짽탲업쇐,춳볆돶웤뻹횵ꆢ훐캻쫽,붫헢킩횵폫뇭2뗄B늿럖뛔펦뗄뻹횵ꆢ훐캻쫽쿠돽늢좡뻸뛔횵,퓙좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽,믱뗃뗄횵뻍쫇뻹횵ꆢ훐캻쫽쯹뇭쪾뗄룃뇈싊릤뻟뗄뚨볛컳닮ꆣ뻹횵뗄뻸뛔컳닮폫훐캻쫽뗄뻸뛔컳닮횸맛달퇹놾뗄뻹횵(Mean)뫍훐캻쫽(Median)폫뛔펦뗄룃뇈싊릤뻟뗄ퟜ쳥퇹놾뗄뻹횵뫍훐횵뗄닮,퓙돽틔ퟜ쳥퇹놾뗄뻹횵뫍훐캻쫽ꆣ뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈샽횸맛달퇹놾뗄횵폫룃뇈싊릤뻟ퟜ퇹놾훐뗄훐캻쫽뗄닮,퓙돽틔ퟜ퇹놾훐캻쫽,웤횵킡폚15%뗄퇹놾퓚맛달퇹놾훐뗄뇈샽ꆣꆡꆡ뇭3막욱볛룱뚨볛늿럖뗄뷡맻뇭쏷:컞싛쫇쪹폃쫐펯싊뮹쫇풤웚쫐펯싊뛔룟퇐랢럑폃뗄짏쫐릫쮾뗄막욱볛룱뷸탐맀볆뚼쫇늻ힼ좷뗄ꆣ풤웚쫐펯싊쫇릫쮾캴살쫕틦쓜솦뗄쳥쿖,룟럧쿕틔벰쫕틦뗄늻좷뚨탔떼훂뛔릫쮾캴살쿖뷰쇷쓑틔풤웚,뛔헢샠릫쮾뗄막욱볛룱맀볆뗄ힼ좷탔뷏뗍ꆣꋙ룹뻝뚨볛컳닮뗄볆쯣릫쪽E=ln(R/B),춨맽E뿉틔췆떼돶En(R/B)e=le,듓뛸뗃떽:P/B=Ee,E뇭쪾뚨볛컳닮,R뇭쪾폃폚뛔릫쮾ퟷ볛횵움맀뗄쪵볊뇈싊횵,B뇭쪾춨맽ퟜ퇹놾훐쯹폐릫쮾뗄뇈싊볆쯣돶뗄믹ힼ뇈싊ꆣ
2006쓪뗚5웚킻횾뎬,헔닽컄,뛅붭:쿠뛔맀볛램움맀룟뿆벼짏쫐릫쮾볛횵뗄퇐뺿ꆤ75ꆤ뇭4ꆡ뻟폐뷏룟퇐랢럑폃뗄릫쮾ퟜ쫐횵맛달퇹놾뗄뚨볛컳닮막욱볛룱뚨볛쫐횵뚨볛쫐횵/쫐횵/쫐횵/쫐횵/쫐횵/뫢솿릤뻟쫐펯싊풤웚쫐펯싊훷펪닺헋훷펪튵펪튵샻죳쫕죫쏦횵컱샻죳샻죳ퟜ뛮A.탅쾢벼쫵샠릫쮾뻹횵훐캻쫽뻹횵뻸뛔컳닮훐캻쫽뻸뛔컳닮뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈샽맛달퇹놾쫽40423941443838B.짺컯튽튩샠릫쮾뻹횵훐캻쫽뻹횵뻸뛔컳닮훐캻쫽뻸뛔컳닮뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈샽맛달퇹놾쫽53515551505251ꆡꆡ힢:뇭훐ꆰ뫢솿릤뻟ꆱ룷쿮뗄몬틥춬뇭3힢쫍ꆣꆡꆡ(뛾)냼몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄릫쮾볛횵움맀뷡맻럖컶듓뇭4뗄뻟폐룟퇐랢럑폃뗄솽룶탐튵릫쮾ퟜ볛횵움맀뷡맻뾴,뇈싊컳닮횵뷏듳,뇈싊움맀뗄ힼ좷탔늢늻쪮럖샭쿫ꆣ퓚뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠릫쮾뗄맀볛컳닮훐,쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵뗄컳닮횵캪0,뛸쫐횵/훷펪튵컱샻죳뗄컳닮횵캪-01016,떫쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄컳닮횵캪-01711,쫐횵/샻죳ퟜ뛮뗄컳닮횵캪-01327,늢쟒뻸뛔횵킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈샽횵좫캪0ꆣ쯤좻쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵뗄컳닮횵캪0,떫룹뻝웤쯻뇈싊컳닮횵죔뿉틔뾴돶뛔릫쮾ퟜ쫐횵뗄움맀욫뗍ꆣ믹폚릫쮾샻죳ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊(쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵)뗄컳닮뻹횵캪-01327,뇭쪾릫쮾쪵볊볛횵쫇웤맀볆횵뗄11387놶,뛸믹폚릫쮾훷펪튵컱쫕죫뗄뇈싊(쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫)뗄뻹횵캪-01711,뇭쪾릫쮾쪵볊볛횵쫇웤맀볆횵뗄21036놶,뇈싊릤뻟뛔룃샠릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵뚨볛쪱,웤볛횵죔좻놻뗍맀쇋ꆣ폫탅쾢벼쫵샠릫쮾튻퇹,뛔폚짺컯튽튩릫쮾,쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵뇈싊뗄움맀ퟮힼ좷,떫폃쫐횵/샻죳ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊뷸탐움맀쫇ퟮ늻ힼ좷뗄ꆣ뛔막욱볛룱뗄움맀,쫐펯싊퓚짺컯튽튩샠릫쮾뗄킧맻튪뇈퓚탅쾢벼쫵샠릫쮾뫃ꆣ(죽)뛔뇈럖컶뛔뇈뇭3뫍뇭4뗄뷡맻,놾컄뗃돶틔쿂벸뗣뷡싛:1.뛔룟뿆벼샠릫쮾,컞싛쫇뛔늻몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄쇷춨쫐뎡뗄릫쮾볛횵뮹쫇뛔몬럇쇷춨막쪱뗄릫쮾ퟜ볛횵뷸탐움맀,닉폃쫐펯싊움맀막욱볛룱쿠뛔살쮵쫇늻ힼ좷뗄,컳닮뷏듳;2.뾼싇쇋럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵뫳,쫐펯싊뛔막욱볛룱움맀뗄ힼ좷탔퓚탅쾢벼쫵샠뫍짺컯튽튩샠탐튵뚼폐쯹쳡룟ꆣ쫐횵뚨볛뇈싊뗄움맀퓚탅쾢벼쫵샠릫쮾ힼ좷탔쏷쿔쳡룟,쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵뗄컳닮듓-0102뇤뮯떽0,쫐횵/훷펪튵컱샻죳뗄컳닮횵듓-01118뇤뮯떽-01016,춬쪱,뻹횵뫍훐캻쫽뗄뻸뛔컳닮튲폐쏷쿔뗄붵뗍ꆣ뺡맜움맀짺컯튽튩샠릫쮾볛횵뗄ힼ좷탔튲폐쳡룟,떫늢늻쏷쿔;3.뾼싇쇋럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵뫳,뻸뛔컳닮킡폚15%뗄퇹놾뇈싊횵퓚탅쾢벼쫵샠릫쮾훐쏷쿔붵뗍,뛸퓚짺컯튽튩샠릫쮾훐퓲쏷쿔쳡룟;4.뾼싇럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵뫳,붵뗍쇋믹폚샻죳ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊(쫐횵/샻죳ퟜ뛮)뗄움맀ힼ좷탔,헢퓚탅쾢벼쫵탐튵뫍짺컯튽튩샠탐튵훐뚼폐쳥쿖ꆣ
쯄ꆢ뷡ꆡ싛(튻)룟뿆벼웳튵붫듳솿뗄뷰춶폚탂닺욷뗄퇐랢,웤릫쮾볛횵뗄뫜듳늿럖잱퓚폚캴살늻좷뚨뗄랢햹믺믡ꆣ헢킩릫쮾룟뛮뗄퇐랢럑폃붵뗍쇋떱잰릫쮾뗄샻죳,떱닉폃쯹폐짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪듳퇹놾쯹믱좡뗄믹ힼ뇈싊뛔룃샠릫쮾뷸탐볛횵움맀쪱,웤횵췹췹욫뗍ꆣ(뛾)뺡맜뗧ퟓ탅쾢탐튵뫍짺컯튽튩탐튵춬쫴폚룟뿆벼웳튵뗄랶돫,떫퓚짺컯튽튩탐튵뫍뗧ퟓ탅쾢탐튵짏쫐릫쮾뗄뚨볛럖컶훐,퓚춬퇹뗄뇈싊릤뻟쿂좴닺짺쇋늻춬뗄뷡맻ꆣ쯤좻퓚솽룶탐튵훐믹폚닺헋쏦횵뗄뇈싊(쫐횵/닺헋쏦횵)뗄뚨볛ힼ좷탔ퟮ뫃,떫퓚뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠웳튵뗄뚨볛훐,믹폚훷펪튵컱쫕죫(쫐횵/훷펪튵컱쫕죫)뗄뇈싊웤뚨볛컳닮ퟮ듳ꆣ믹폚펪튵샻죳뫍샻죳ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊뗄뚨볛컳닮,짺컯튽튩샠웳튵튪뇈뗧ퟓ탅쾢샠웳튵듳ꆣ(죽)쪹폃쫐펯싊뛔룟뿆벼웳튵뗄뚨볛늻ힼ좷ꆣ룃샠릫쮾뗄룟럧쿕뫍쫕틦뗄늻좷뚨탔떼훂뛔룃릫쮾캴살쿖뷰쇷쓑틔맀쯣,쪹뗃뛔웤막욱뗄뚨볛ힼ좷탔늻룟ꆣ떫뾼싇럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵뫳,쫐펯싊뛔막욱볛룱움맀뗄ힼ좷탔퓚솽룶탐튵뚼폐쯹쳡룟ꆣ(쯄)뾼싇럇쇷춨막볛횵뗄잰뫳,춬튻뇈싊릤뻟뛔룟뿆벼웳튵움맀뗄ힼ좷탔듦퓚닮틬,닉폃뇈싊맀볛램뛔맺쓚룟탂벼쫵짏쫐웳튵뷸탐볛횵움맀쪱,튪쟸럖움맀뗄릫쮾볛횵쫇럱뾼싇쇋럇쇷춨막뗄볛횵ꆣ[닎뾼컄쿗][1]췴컄훒.DCF랽램뗄뻖쿞탔퇐뺿[J].훐맺죭뿆톧,2002,(2).[2]Liu,J.,,[R].Workingpaper,NewYork,ColumbiaUniversity:.[3]럑솼돉.웳튵볛횵움맀랢햹쟷쫆[J].훐맺닺움맀,2000,(2).[4]Liu,J.,,[J].JournalofAccountingResearch,2002,(40).[5]뚭퇓낲,량쿨.웚좨뚨볛쒣탍퓚뿇풴볛횵움맀훐뗄퓋폃[J].릤튵믡볆,2003,(7).[6]훓떤탄.막욱뚨볛샭싛뗄랢햹벰웤뛔컒맺뗄쫊폃탔[J].쫀뷧뺭볃컄믣,2001,(6).[7]쫦횾뇳,삼틋짺.컒맺룟뿆벼룅쓮막쫐뎡뚨볛뗄쪵횤럖컶[J].짇춷듳톧톧놨,2001,(1).[8]췵뾡생.룟뿆벼웳튵볛횵움맀첽쳖[J].즽컷닆뺭듳톧톧놨,2002,(11).[9]랶,헅쏷짆,쫦붨욽.훐맺횤좯쫐뎡럖룮뗄샭싛폫뛔닟퇐뺿[J].뺭볃쳥훆룄룯,2003,(5).[10]뛅붭,헔닽컄,킻횾뎬.쿠뛔맀볛램퓚짏쫐릫쮾볛횵움맀훐뗄펦폃퇐뺿[J].닆뺭퇐뺿,2005,(8).[11]Alford,[J].JournalofAccountingResearch,1992,(30).[12]Kaplan,[J].JournalofFinance,1995,(50).[13]Kim,M.,[J].JournalofFinancialEconomics,1999,(53).[14]Glison,.,,[J].ReviewofFinancialStudies,2001,(13).OntheApplicationofMultiplesinEvaluatingtheHigh2techListedFirmsXIEZhichao1,ZHAOChangwen2,DUJiang1(,China;,SichuanUniversity,Chengdu610064,China)Abstract:,,itisn’,itisn’tprecisetouseP/,it’:Multiple;High2techcompany;Evaluation;Valuedriver
