Chapter 5
服装营销调研与预测
Marketing Research
And Forecasting
1
市场营销信息系统的构成
The Components of Marketing
Information System
营销信息系统的概念
The Concept of M IS
营销信息系统营销信息系统由人、设备和程序组成，它为营销决策
者收集、挑选、分析、评估和分配需要的、及时的和
准确的信息。
A marketing information system(M IS)marketing information system(M IS) consists of
people, equipment, and procedures to gather, sort,
analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely,
and accurate information to marketing decision
makers.
2
Marketing Information System
Information
Analysis
Internal
Databases
Marketing
Research
Marketing
Intelligence
Distributing
Information
Assessing Information
Needs
Marketing Managers
Marketing Environment
M
ar
ke
tin
g
D
ec
is
io
ns
a
nd
C
om
m
un
ic
at
io
ns
The Marketing Information System
Developing Information
3
营销信息系统的构成
The Components of
Marketing Information System
营销决策
支持系统
Marketing Decision
Support System
营销调研系统
Marketing
Research System
营销情报系统
Marketing
Intelligence
System
内部报告系统
Internal Records
System
4
1. 内部报告系统
Internal Records System
• 订单—收款循环
The Order-to-Payment Cycle (Wal-mart)
• 销售信息系统
Sales Information System
The Components of Marketing
Information System
5
2. 营销情报系统
Marketing Intelligence System
营销情报系统营销情报系统是使公司经理获得日常的关于营销
环境发展的恰当信息的一整套程序和来源。
A marketing intelligence systemmarketing intelligence system is a set of
procedures and sources used by managers to
obtain everyday information about developments
in the marketing environment.
The Components of Marketing
Information System
6
3. 营销调研系统
Marketing Research System
营销调研营销调研是系统的设计、收集、分析和提出数据资
料以及提出公司所面临的特定营销状况有关的调查
研究结果。
Marketing researchMarketing research is the systematic design,
collection, analysis, and reporting of data and
findings relevant to a specific marketing situation
facing the company.
（营销调研步骤见)
The Components of Marketing
Information System
7
4. 营销决策支持系统
Marketing Decision Support System
营销决策支持系统营销决策支持系统是一个组织，它通过软件与硬
件支持，协调数据收集、系统、工具和技术，解
释企业内部和外部环境的有关信息，并把它转化
为营销活动的基础。
A marketing decision support system (MDSS)marketing decision support system (MDSS) is a
coordinated collection of data, systems, tools, and
techniques with supporting software and hardware
by which an organization gathers and interprets
relevant information from business and environment
and turns it into a basis for marketing action.
The Components of Marketing
Information System
8
营销调研的步骤
The Marketing Research Process
确定问题和调研目标
Defining the problem and
research objectives
制定调研计划
Developing the research plan
for collecting information
执行调研计划——收集和分析信息
Implementing the research plan --
collecting and analyzing the data
陈述研究发现
Interpreting and reporting the
findings 9
Step 1. 确定问题和调研目标
Defining the Problem & Research
Objectives
探测性调研
Exploratory
Research
描述性调研
Descriptive
Research
因果性调研
Causal
Research
•Test hypotheses about cause-
and-effect relationships.
•Gathers preliminary information
that will help define the problem
and suggest hypotheses.
•Describes things as market
potential for a product or the
demographics and consumers’
attitudes.
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Step 2. 制定调研计划
Develop the Research Plan
• Research plan development follows these
steps:
– 资料来源 Data sources
– 调研方法 Research approaches
– 调研工具 Research instrument
– 抽样计划 Sampling plan
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(1) Develop the Research Plan-
Data Sources 资料来源
Gathering Secondary Information
二手资料二手资料
Information That
Already Exists
Somewhere.
+ Obtained More
Quickly, Lower
Cost.
-- Might Not be
Usable Data.
Both
Must Be:
相关的
Relevant
准确的
Accurate
及时的
Current
客观的
Impartial
一手资料一手资料
Information
Collected for
the Specific
Purpose at
Hand.
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(2)Develop the Research Plan-
Research Approaches 调研方法
Planning Primary Data Collection
观察法观察法
Observational Observational
ResearchResearch
Gathering data
by observing
people,
actions and
situations
(Exploratory)
实验法实验法
Experimental Experimental
ResearchResearch
Using groups
of people to
determine
cause-and-
effect
relationships
(Causal)
访问法访问法
Survey Survey
ResearchResearch
Asking
individuals
about
attitudes,
preferences or
buying
behaviors
(Descriptive)
13
Planning Primary Data Collection
Contact Methods
14
(3)Develop the Research Plan-
Research Instruments 调研工具
问卷 Questionnaires
15
(4)Develop the Research Plan-
Sampling Plans 抽样计划
Planning Primary Data Collection
抽样单位
Who is to be
surveyed?
(What Sampling
Unit?)
样本量
How many
should be
surveyed?
抽样程序
How should the
sample be
chosen?
抽样方法
Probability or
Non-probability
sampling?
Sample -
representative
segment of the
population
16
收集信
息
Collecti
ng the
Data加工信
息
Proces
sing
the
Data分析信
息
Analyzi
ng the
Data
Research Plan
Step 3. 执行调研计划
Implementing the Research Plan
17
Step 4. 陈述研究发现
Interpreting and Reporting Findings
调研者应提出对管理决策有用的重要发现。
Researcher Should Present Important Findings that are
Useful in the Major Decisions Faced by Management.
Step 1. 解释发现
Interpret the Findings
Step 2. 得出结果
Draw Conclusions
Step 3. 向管理层报告
Report to Management
18
市场需求的测量与预测
Demand Measurement and
Forecasting
• 市场需求的测量
The measures of Market Demand
• 测量哪个市场？
Which Market to Measure?
• 需求测量的有关词汇
A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
• 估计目前市场需求
Estimating Current Demand
• 估计未来需求
Estimating Future Demand
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市场需求的测量
The measures of Market Demand
10%
100%
Potential
Total
0
5%
10%
20%
40%
100%Potential
Available
Qualified
Available
Target
Penetrated
总市场
Total Market
潜在市场
Potential Market 20
A Vocabulary for Demand
Measurement
• 市场需求 Market Demand
• 市场预测 Market Forecast
• 市场潜量 Market Potential
• 企业需求 Company Demand
• 企业销售预测 Company Sales Forecast
• 企业销售潜量 Company Sales Potential
21
估计目前市场需求
Estimating Current Demand
• 总市场潜量
Total Market Potential
• 地区市场潜量
Area Market Potential
• 行业销售额和市场份额
Industry Sales and Market Shares
22
估计未来需求
Estimating Future Demand
• 购买者意图调查法
Survey of Buyers’ Intentions
• 销售人员意见综合法
Composite of Force Opinions
• 专家意见法
Expert Opinion
• 过去销售额分析
Past-Sales Analysis
• 市场测试法
Market-Test Method
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