2006쓪5퓂뫓놱쪦랶듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)뗚29뻭뗚3웚JournalofHebeiNormalUniversity(PhilosophyandSocialSciencesEdition)Ξ뫓놱쪡만뚨닺춶킧맻벰훍뫳킧펦럖컶샮ꆡ늩(뫓놱릤튵듳톧맜샭톧풺,쳬뷲ꆡ300130)햪ꆡ튪:뫓놱쪡만뚨닺춶킧맻룟폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽,쟒늨뚯럹뛈뷏킡,훍뫳웚뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽폫춬웚뗄늨뚯쟷쫆튻훂ꆣ쳡룟뫓놱쪡만뚨닺춶킧맻펦듓짮뮯춶쳥훆룄룯,췪짆춶죚쳥쾵,붨솢춶쿮쒿벨킧움맀훆뛈,볓뿬쿮쒿붨짨뷸뛈뗈랽쏦죫쫖ꆣ맘볼듊:만뚨닺;춶킧맻쾵쫽;킧펦럖컶훐춼럖샠뫅:F223ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1000Ο5587(2006)03Ο0048Ο04ꆡꆡ만뚨닺춶뻟폐뗷뷚릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄쮫훘릦쓜,뛔펦힢틢뗄쫇,떱쓪뗄만뚨닺춶뛮뛔떱쓪탂퓶뗘헻룶짧믡뺭볃뗄랢햹웰ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔쟸맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쯹웰뗄ퟷ폃,폐뿉쓜평폚춶쿮쒿훖샠ꆢ살,뫓놱뗄뺭볃믹놾짏돊쿖돶룟믽샛ꆢ뗍쿻럑ꆢ룟춶ꆢ뗍헾닟킧펦ꆢ뺭볃뷡릹뗷헻뗈틲쯘뗄듦퓚,믡닺짺쯹캽뗄킧싊뗄듖럅뺭펪쒣쪽ꆣ춶킧틦뗍쿂,늻뷶믡퓬돉짧믡ꆰ훍뫳킧펦ꆱ\[2\]ꆣ쯹틔,퓚퇐뺿뗄맽돌훐,뇘탫뾼싇떽탂퓶풴뗄샋럑,뛸쟒뛔폚좫쪡뺭볃뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃튲쪮럖폐쿞ꆣ뗄맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵폫훍뫳만뚨닺춶횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ틲쒿잰,뫓놱뺭볃뗄랢햹훷튪쫇틀뾿춶뗄룟쯙퓶뎤듸뚯듋,뾼싇훍뫳틲쯘뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽뿉틔뇭쪾캪:뺭볃뗄돉뎤,쯤좻춶맽죈뗄컊쳢뮹쎻돶쿖,떫퓬돉퇏훘ꚤY춨믵엲헍뗄틾뮼틀좻듦퓚ꆣ튪뷢뻶춶퓶뎤뗄뢺킧펦컊Ett-i=,i=1,2,ꚫ,n(1-2)It-i쳢쪽훐,Et-i캪훍뫳웚캪t-i쓪뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻,쪵쿖뺭볃뗄뿉돖탸랢햹,붨솢뫍킳짧믡,맘볼퓚폚쳡짽만뚨닺춶킧틦ꆣ놾컄샻폃만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽쾵쫽,떱i=0쪱,Et캪떱쓪뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽;횸뇪뛔1981ꆫ2004쓪뫓놱쪡뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻뷸탐It-i캪훍뫳웚캪t-i쓪뗄만뚨닺춶뛮,떱i=1쪱,뇈뷏폫럖컶,쳡돶쳡룟만뚨닺춶킧맻뗄뛔닟뫍붨틩,It-1캪훍뫳웚1쓪뗄만뚨닺춶뛮ꆣꚤYt캪뗚t쓪맺캪폐맘늿쏅훆뚨뿆톧뗄춶헾닟쳡릩훘튪닎뾼ꆣ쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶볓뛮ꆣ놾컄훷튪퇐뺿뗄쫇떱쓪틔벰훍뫳웚튻ꆢ만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽뗄룅쓮벰럖뇰캪1쓪뫍2쓪뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻,틲듋,닉폃뗄만닢뚨랽램뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽럖뇰캪:Et,Et-1,Et-2ꆣ만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽풽킡,퓲춶뗄킧맻풽닮;뛸떱만뚨닺춶춶킧맻쾵쫽쫇횸튻뚨쪱웚맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶볓뛮폫킧맻쾵쫽횵풽듳쪱,퓲춶뗄킧맻풽뫃ꆣ만뚨닺춶뛮횮볤뗄뇈횵,쯼쫇듓맺쏱뺭볃뷇뛈뫍춶믮뚯좫돌살ퟛ뫏랴펳춶쫕틦뗄횸뇪ꆡꆡ뛾ꆢ뫓놱쪡만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽럖컶,쯼쓜릻뷏좫쏦랴펳춶믮뚯뗄ퟮ훕킧틦,벴랴펳맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶볓뛮1981ꆫ2004쓪뫓놱폫좫맺만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽뗄폫춶뗄뇈샽맘쾵뫍믹놾쟷쫆\[1\]ꆣ볆쯣릫쪽캪:뇈뷏볻뇭1-1ꆣ평뇭1-1뿉틔뾴돶,뫓놱쪡만뚨닺뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽(E)춶킧맻뻟폐틔쿂쳘뗣:t=쒳튻쪱웚맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶볓뛮(ꚤY)1.뫓놱쪡만뚨닺뗄춶킧맻룟폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽,t쒳튻쪱웚좫짧믡만뚨닺춶뛮(1-1)(I)t쟒늨뚯럹뛈뷏킡ꆣΞ쫕룥죕웚:2005Ο08Ο25ퟷ헟볲뷩:샮늩(1960Ο),쓐,즽컷쪡럚퇴쫐죋,퓚뛁늩쪿,훷튪듓쫂춶샭싛퇐뺿ꆣ' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
샮ꆡ늩ꆡ뫓놱쪡만뚨닺춶킧맻벰훍뫳킧펦럖컶49듓뇭1-1뿉뾴돶,듓1982ꆫ2004쓪뫓놱쪡폫좫맺튻짆,만뚨닺춶킧맻솬탸죽쓪듯떽쇋틔짏뗄룟쮮퇹,만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽돊쿖쏷쿔뗄훜웚탔늨뚯,쟒늨욽,떫뫃뺰늻뎤,1997쓪쫜뚫쓏퇇뷰죚캣믺뗄펰쿬,만뚨뚯훜웚ꆢ늨뚯맬벣믹놾튻훂ꆣ웤훐,1986쓪틔뫳,뫓놱쪡닺춶킧맻솬탸죽쓪듳럹뛈쿂뮬,떽1999쓪뗸떽쇋ퟮ뗄춶킧맻쾵쫽쪼훕룟폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽,폈웤쫇2001쓪뗍쮮욽ꆣ2000쓪틔뫳,뺭볃훰붥믖뢴,만뚨닺춶틔뫳,춶킧맻쾵쫽돊쿖돖탸퓶뎤쟷쫆,떽2004쓪짏짽킧맻돊쿖돶쇋돖탸짏짽뗄쟷쫆ꆣ떽,떫뮹쎻폐듯떽1988쓪뗄ퟮ룟쮮욽ꆣ뷸튻2.훍뫳웚뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽폫춬웚뗄늨뚯쟷늽볆쯣,뫓놱룃쪱웚뗄만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽욽뻹캪쫆믹놾튻훂,훍뫳웚풽뎤춶킧맻쿠뛔풽뫃,떫늨뚯럹뛈,룟폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽;춶킧맻쾵쫽뗄뇤틬쾵쫽풽듳ꆣ캪%,뗍폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽%ꆣ듓뇭1-1뿉뾴돶,뫓놱훍뫳튻웚ꆢ솽웚뗄만뚨닺1993쓪틔잰,쫜볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆쿂풴엤훃랽쪽뗄펰춶킧맻쾵쫽폫춬웚뗄늨뚯쟷쫆믹놾튻훂,떫훍뫳튻웚쿬뫍뛔훐맺쿲쫐뎡뺭볃맬뇭쿖돶뗄늻쫊펦,뫓놱폫좫뗄늨뚯럹뛈룟폚춬웚,훍뫳솽웚뗄늨뚯럹뛈룟폚훍뫳튻맺튻퇹,만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽늨뚯욵랱,컈뚨탔뷏닮;웚ꆣ볆쯣춬웚ꆢ훍뫳튻웚ꆢ솽웚뗄욽뻹만뚨닺춶킧맻1993쓪틔뫳,쯦ퟅ뫪맛뗷뿘돵볻돉킧,쫐뎡믺훆훰늽췪쾵쫽럖뇰캪ꆢꆢ,춶킧맻쯦ퟅ훍뫳웚뗄퇓뇭1-1ꆡ1981ꆫ2004쓪뫓놱폫좫맺만뚨닺춶킧맻쾵쫽뗄뇈뷏쓪럝뫓놱좫맺GDP퓶볓뛮EiEt-1Et-2GDP퓶볓뛮EiEt-1Et-21981ꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪꆡꆡ쇏살풴ꆶ:뫓놱뺭볃춳볆쓪본2005ꆷ,훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꆶ;훐맺춳볆쓪본2005ꆷ,훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꆣ' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
50뫓놱쪦랶듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)2006쓪뗚3웚뎤늻뛏퓶볓;뇤틬쾵쫽럖뇰캪%ꆢ%ꆢ58%,춶뚨닺춶뺡뿬랢믓킧틦,틔쪵쿖퓚뷏뛌쪱볤쓚,폃튻뚨킧맻뗄늨뚯튲쯦ퟅ훍뫳웚뗄퇓뎤늻뛏볓뻧ꆣ쮵쏷,쯤만뚨닺춶좡뗃뷏뛠맺쏱쫕죫ꆣ좻뫓놱춶킧맻뗄랢믓듦퓚ퟅ튻뚨뗄훍뫳킧펦,떫훍뫳쪱웚풽뎤,춶킧맻풽늻컈뚨,뛔춶킧맻뗄랢믓랴뛸믡쯄ꆢ쳡룟만뚨닺춶킧맻뗄뛔닟벰닺짺훆풼ퟷ폃ꆣ틲듋붨틩,펦쳘뇰힢틢뛔떱잰만뚨닺춶뷸탐폐킧틽떼,퓚볓듳춶솦뛈뗄춬쪱,룼튪힢훘춶킧1.짮뮯춶쳥훆룄룯,췪짆춶죚쳥쾵ꆣ틦뗄폐킧랢믓,틔뇣듙뷸뺭볃돖탸ꆢ뿬쯙붡뾵뗘랢햹ꆣ만뚨닺춶쫇맺쏱뺭볃랢햹뗄훘튪췆뚯솦,춶죽ꆢ뫓놱쪡만뚨닺춶킧맻뗄쪱훍맦쒣뗄듳킡붫횱뷓펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쯙뛈ꆣ튪놣돖뫓놱춶럖컶컈뚨뷏뿬퓶뎤,뻍뇘탫볓뿬췆뷸헾뢮횰쓜뇤뫍춶죚쳥훆룄룯,폅뮯춶뮷뺳,볓쯙붨솢뫍췪짆쫐뎡떼쿲ꆢ뺿뺹쓄튻웚뗄만뚨닺춶뛔뫓놱쪡맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵웳튵캪훷ꆢ헾닟틽떼ꆢ짧믡뮯죚뗄탂믺훆,룼뛠룼뫃뗘뗄뇤뮯폐뷏듳펰쿬,탨튪춨맽만뚨닺춶킧맻뗄훍뫳헹좡뫍뻛벯맺볒ꆢ뗘랽ꆢ짧믡ꆢ쏱볤뗈룷훖탎쪽뗄놾,춶킧펦럖컶살좷뚨ꆣ룹뻝뇭1-1쫽뻝럖뇰뛔춬웚ꆢ훍뫳튻뫓놱ꆢ붨짨뫓놱ꆣ뻟쳥쮵:튻쫇룄룯춶뻶닟쳥쾵뫍맜웚ꆢ훍뫳솽웚뗄만뚨닺춶폫GDP퓶볓뛮뷸탐훍뫳킧샭훆뛈,붨솢틔웳튵춶캪훷,틔쫐뎡뗷뷚춶탐캪뫍틔펦럖컶ꆣ춶훷쳥뻶닟ꆢ럧쿕ퟔ뢺캪믹뒡뫍헾뢮볤뷓뗷뿘틽떼뗄틔룷쓪뗄GDP퓶볓뛮캪틲뇤솿,럖뇰틔춬웚ꆢ훍뫳튻놾튪쯘엤훃믺훆\[3\]ꆣ뛾쫇췆뷸뫍췪짆춶폐뎥쪹폃훆웚ꆢ훍뫳솽웚뗄만뚨닺춶뛮캪뷢쫍뇤솿,샻폃뛈,쪵탐뷰돯벯뛠쟾뗀뮯ꆣ돽닆헾뷰췢,돤럖뗷뚯웳쓢뫏룷훖쟷쫆쿟,늢춨맽뇈뷏에뇰쾵쫽R2,톡튵뗄믽벫탔,좫쏦듙뷸짧믡춶;믽벫샻폃놾쫐뎡,삩퓱죽듎쟺쿟뷸탐믘맩럖컶ꆣ뗃떽뗄죽룶믘맩랽돌캪:듳횱뷓죚맦쒣;췆뷸췁뗘엺ퟢ,컼틽맺쓚췢놾쇷죫;ꚤY2t=++볓듳솦뛈헐짌틽,믽벫폐킧뗘샻폃췢;쫨춨볤뷓죚(1-3)쟾뗀,믽벫헹좡맺햮뫍틸탐듻뿮ꆣ죽쫇뒴퓬솼뫃뗄춶()()()()뮷뺳ꆣ쒿잰,춶뮷뺳틀좻쫇뫓놱뺭볃랢햹뗄욿뺱,틲듋R2===탨튪뷸튻늽볓듳뮷뺳헻훎솦뛈,틔붨짨ꆰ룟킧뫓놱,돏탅ꚤY2t=+-1+-1뫓놱ꆱ캪ퟜ쳥쒿뇪,얬솦폅뮯뫓놱뗄헾닟뮷뺳ꆢ쫐뎡뮷뺳ꆢ(1-4)램훆뮷뺳ꆢ죋컄뮷뺳뗈ꆣ()()()()2.붨솢춶쿮쒿벨킧움맀훆뛈,볓뿬쿮쒿붨짨뷸뛈ꆣR2===춶쿮쒿벨킧움맀맡뒩폚헻룶쿮쒿훜웚,냼삨쿮쒿ꚤYt=+-2+-2잰웚ꆢ붨짨웚뫍뾢릤퓋펪웚ꆣ춨맽붨솢춶쿮쒿벨킧움(1-5)맀훆뛈,늻뷶뿉틔뇜쏢쿮쒿훘뢴붨짨쯹떼훂뗄뗍킧싊춶()()()(),뛸쟒튲뿉틔볓뿬쿮쒿붨짨뷸뛈ꆢ쯵뛌붨짨릤웚,쪹만R2===뚨닺뺡뿬붻뢶쪹폃ꆣ쿮쒿잰웚벨킧움맀쫇퓚낲업쿮쒿듓릫쪽(1-3)ꆢ(1-4)ꆢ(1-5)벰웤tꆢR2ꆢSeꆢF횵럖춶풤쯣잰,닉폃뿆톧뗄랽램뛔춶쿮쒿퓚짧믡ꆢ뺭볃ꆢ컶,죽룶릫쪽뻹춨맽볬퇩,럻뫏뺭볃몬틥뫍쫽톧튪쟳ꆣ듓닆컱ꆢ짺첬뮷뺳뗈랽쏦뗄킧틦ힴ뿶뷸탐좫쏦쾵춳뗄뿉탐에뇰쾵쫽R2횵뾴,쿠맘돌뛈듓룟떽뗍틀듎캪1-4쪽ꆢ1탔럖컶퇐뺿뫍움맀,에뛏쿮쒿쫇럱횵뗃춶벰춶뗄킧-3쪽ꆢ1-5쪽;듓맀볆뇪ힼ컳닮뾴,듓킡떽듳틀듎캪1-틦ꆢ킧맻뫍듦퓚뗄럧쿕,뛅뻸캥놳뿆톧뗄뻶닟,횻쫇욾뷨4쪽ꆢ1-3쪽ꆢ1-5쪽,벴훍뫳튻쓪뗄만뚨닺춶폫훷맛틢쪶뻶뚨쿮쒿뗄뿉탐탔,늢쟒튪퇏룱ퟱ쫘쿮쒿춶GDP퓶볓뛮쓢뫏뗄죽듎쟺쿟쓢뫏킧맻ퟮ뫃ꆣ쮵쏷,잰튻뗄뻶닟돌탲ꆣ쿮쒿붨짨웚벨킧움맀쫇뛔붨짨웚쿮쒿릤돌쓪뗄만뚨닺춶뛮퓶볓튻틚풪,쓜릻쪹떱쓪뗄GDP퓶벰닆컱맜샭뗈랽쏦쯹뷸탐뗄움맀,훷튪냼삨:붨짨맜샭훆볓뛮퓶볓틚풪ꆣ뛈횴탐쟩뿶ꆢ릤돌뷸뛈벰훊솿ꆢ룷쿮뫏춬횴탐쟩뿶ꆢ춶짏쫶럖컶뇭쏷,뫓놱쪡만뚨닺뗄춶훍뫳킧펦쫇룅쯣풤쯣횴탐쟩뿶ꆢ닆컱맜샭벰믡볆뫋쯣ꆢ붨짨뷰떽캻뿍맛뗄,쟒훍뫳튻웚뗄ퟛ뫏킧맻ퟮ뫃,폫뇭1-1랴펳뗄뫍쪹폃맜샭쟩뿶ꆢ붨짨훜웚벰쪩릤맜샭쮮욽ꆢ잢짌뇤룼잩컊쳢튻훂ꆣ틲듋,펦뺡솿닉좡듫쪩복짙웤훍뫳킧펦,쪹만횤쟩뿶ꆢ맜샭훆뛈ꆢ뛔뮷뺳뗄펰쿬ꆣ쿮쒿뾢릤퓋펪웚벨킧' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
샮ꆡ늩ꆡ뫓놱쪡만뚨닺춶킧맻벰훍뫳킧펦럖컶51움맀쫇뛔쿮쒿붨돉춶닺믲붻뢶쪹폃뗄붨짨쿮쒿쪵볊좡뗃뛔훘뗣닺튵뗄횧돖솦뛈,폅뮯닺튵춶뷡릹;킭뗷쟸폲랢뗄뺭볃짧믡킧틦벰뮷뺳펰쿬뷸탐ퟛ뫏움맀ꆣ훷튪듓쫇럱햹,폅뮯쟸폲춶뷡릹;볓듳춶죫랢햹짧믡쫂튵,듙뷸짧듯떽쇋풤웚쒿뇪믲듯떽쒿뇪뗄돌뛈ꆢ돉놾킧틦럖컶ꆢ뛔짧믡폫뺭볃뗄킭뗷랢햹ꆣ쳘뇰튪뒦샭뫃짺닺탔춶뫍럇짺믡뺭볃쪵볊펰쿬ꆢ쿮쒿뿉돖탸탔뗈랽쏦뛔쿮쒿뷸탐움맀ꆣ닺탔춶뗄맘쾵,ퟶ떽짺닺뫍쿻럑ꆢ릩룸폫탨쟳뗄킭뗷ꆣ3.뫏샭뗷헻춶뷡릹,복죵만뚨닺뗄훍뫳킧펦,듙힢틢쳡룟벯풼탍춶뇈훘,냑룼뛠뗄뷰춶쿲벼쫵룄퓬,뷸뺭볃뗄돖탸컈뚨퓶뎤ꆣ듙뷸맺쏱쫕죫뗄뿬쯙퓶볓ꆣ퓶볓룄붨삩붨춶뇈훘,뺡룹뻝뫓놱닺튵뷡릹뫍쟸폲뷡릹뗄쿖ힴ벰듦퓚뗄컊뿬탎돉짺닺쓜솦ꆣ튪뒦샭뫃듳훐킡탍붨짨쿮쒿뗄맘쾵,쳢,캴살춶뷡릹뗷헻,튪퓚뿆톧랢햹맛뗄횸떼쿂,볓잿틔복짙춶뗄훍뫳킧펦,룼뛠뗄퓶볓맺쏱쫕죫ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\]ꆡ탬킡쟕,췵폀쓾,ힿ쿨횮.훘쟬쫐만뚨닺춶킧틦럖컶뗄쪵횤퇐뺿\[J\]맾.뛻뇵짌튵듳톧톧놨,2005,(4).\[J\]훘.쟬릤짌듳톧톧놨,2003,(3).\[3\]ꆡ췵쿾샶,췵폱쇖.릤튵만뚨닺춶킧틦뗄ퟛ뫏럖컶폫움볛\[2\]ꆡ샮,얣쮬,췵떤.뫚쇺붭쪡만뚨닺춶킧틦벰훍뫳킧펦\[J\]릤.튵벼쫵뺭볃,2004,10.[퓰죎뇠벭ꆡ돂ꆡ]OntheeffectandlagintheinvestmentinthefixedassetsinHebeiProvinceLIBo(SchoolofManagement,HebeiIndustrialUniversity,Tianjin300130,China)Abstract:WhiletheeffectofthefixedassetinvestmentishigherinHebeithantheChineseaveragein2dexwithlittlefluctuation,:fixedassets;indexofinvestmenteffect;analysis' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
