Leading Strategic Change
Hal B. Gregersen
Donald L. Staheli Professor of Global Strategy & Leadership
MARRIOTT SCHOOL
Email: hal_gregersen@
Where were you?
Where did I teach before coming to BYU?
California State University-Fullerton
California State University-San Diego
Pennsylvania State University-Behrend
Turku School of Economics (Fulbright Fellow)
Helsinki School of Economics
American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird)
University of Michigan
Tufts University
Dartmouth College, Tuck School of Business
What courses do I teach?
2002-2003 @ BYU
Leading Strategic Change
Executive Leadership Development
Paradigms in Organizations
Pre-2002 @ BYU
Global Business Environments
Global Strategy
Global Leadership
What are some of my consulting and executive education experiences?
Colgate Palmolive
Intel
Lockheed Martin
Marriott International
Nokia
Invensys
IBM
LG
Ameritech
Cemex
EDS
Black and Decker
Why am I in this class at the Marriott School in 2002?
Why are you in this class at the Marriott School in 2002?
High Impact Learning
Our Lifetime
611520 hours in 70 years
Leading Strategic Change Contact Time
hours
.000003% of a 70 year lifetime
Three one-millionths of our lifetime
Current and Future Trends
–Leadership Impacts–
OLD WORLD CERTAINTY
Once mapped accurately, the islands, mountains, rivers, and valleys stayed the same.
NEW WORLD
UN-CERTAINTY
As soon as the islands, mountains, rivers, and valleys of today’s business world are mapped, they shift almost immediately.
A World of Uncertainy
“2001 was a terrible year for our industry.”
Craig Barrett, CEO, Intel, January 15, 2002
Tectonic Shifts
The tectonic plates underpinning both our government and commercial customers, as well as our industry, continue to shift, sending tremors large and small around the world.
Vance Coffman, Chairman and CEO Lockheed Martin Corporation Paris Air Show, June 17, 2001
Total Time Required to Transmit 2,000 Average Size Novels
400 bps modem 16 weeks
Fiber Optic Line <1 second
TECHNOLOGY TREMORS
POLITICAL TREMORS
And the walls fell down . . .
Russian-based US Satellite Launches
TRANSPORTATION TREMORS
POPULATION TREMORS
1. China
2. India
3. USA
4. Indonesia
5. Pakistan
6. Nigeria
7. Bangladesh
8. Brazil
9. Iran
Total w/o USA
COUNTRY POPULATION (MM)
1995 2025
1,288 1,546
897 1,380
276 334
188 282
122 275
96 246
114 211
152 206
92 162
2,949 4,308
POPULATION TREMORS
Trade Between Developed and Developing Countries
(In Constant 1996 Dollars)
1982
1996
2000b
1900b
1800b
1700b
1600b
1500b
1400b
1300b
1200b
1000b
900b
800b
149% Real Increase
11%
Real Annual Growth Rate
475% Nominal Increase
% Nominal Annual Growth Rate
Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries
(In Nominal Dollars)
1986
1996
140b
130b
120b
110b
90b
80b
70b
60b
50b
40b
30b
20b
Source: United Nations, World Investment Report, 1997
Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Yearbook, 1997
2001 delivered a 50% decrease in FDI!
POPULATION TREMORS
Made in Mexico
CREATED in Mexico
GLOBALIZATION TREMORS
Technology Tremors
Political Tremors
Transportation Tremors
Population Tremors
Globalization Tsunami
Beginning, Middle, or End?
Global Financial Service Industry
Earnings Market Share
75% Local Incumbents
25% Global Players
Source; McKinsey & Company Global Institute
Personal Financial Service Industry
Earnings Market Share
85% Local Incumbents
Total Market Size: $300b pre-tax Profit
13% Global Players
2% Largest Global Player
You’re only going to have two kinds of companies in the future: those that go global and those that go bankrupt.
Globalization Tsunami
—John Zeglis, President, AT&T
Leadership Impacts
What Drives Successful Globalization?
Competent global leaders
Adequate financial resources
Improved international communication technology
Higher quality local and national workforce
Greater political stability in developing countries
Greater national government support of trade
Lower tariff and trade restrictions in other countries
Average
Rating
DIMENSION
SCALE: 1=Not at all important to 7=Extremely important
Source: Global Explorers: The Next Generation of Leaders, Black, Morrison, and Gregersen (Routledge, 1999)
Nowhere Near Enough
Fewer Than We Need
About the Number We Need
More Than Enough
QUANTITY
Percentage of . Firms
Dearth of Global Leaders
Source: Global Explorers: The Next Generation of Leaders, Black, Morrison, and Gregersen (Routledge, 1999)
}85%
Developing Global Leaders
STAGE OF GLOBAL LEADER
DEVELOPMENT SYSTEMS
PERCENTAGE OF . FIRMS
Comprehensive System
Some Established Initiatives
Ad Hoc Approach or
Just Starting
Source: Global Explorers: The Next Generation of Leaders, Black, Morrison, and Gregersen (Routledge, 1999)
D4 Leadership
Deliver
Decide
LEADING STRATEGIC CHANGE
Discover
Develop
Course Focus
Deliver
Decide
LEADING STRATEGIC CHANGE
Discover
Develop
Communicated Learning
Contribution to Our Learning Community
Personal Theory of Effective Leadership (Part 1)
Due next Tuesday, September 10
Personal Theory of Effective Leadership: A Reassessment (Part 2)
Explorer Insight & Learning Experience (Team)
Team composition (4-6 people) & explorer selection due Tuesday, September 10
Chase Your Leadership Question
Analysis of Learning
X33 program cancellation--OUCH!!!
From: New Economy? You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet <>
By Alvin and Heidi Toffler, The Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2001 (available online to subscribers)
*Alvin and Heidi Toffler are founders of Toffler Associates, a strategic advisory firm, and co-authors of Future Shock and The Third Wave.
GET SPACE SHUTTLE IMAGE
Mother going to England on the original Queen Mary versus me leaving on Monday night and returning home on Friday night with three days of work in Hong Kong!
Space shuttle pilot at Intel worried about coming in too low at 300,000 feet.
Containerization has reduced shipping costs by roughly 50%.
ADD slow boat and then fast plane, Concord jet if possible
LM: take advantage of location and shipping costs.
Add space shuttle and time it takes from New York to London!!!
