Cross-asset - Japan
Nomura Quant Insights
Global Markets Research
11 May 2026
Near-term overheating signs for AI-driven US equities vs
scope for more FOMO among foreigners in Korean equities
The AI rally and value / Lingering preference for value in the universe of domestic demand
stocks / Stock selection during supply chain shocks and subsequent recoveries
Near-term overheating signals for AI-driven US equities / Steep decline in option
skew / Quant funds mostly done covering shorts / Nonresident investors selling
South Korean equities to lock in gains
The global AI rally went into a higher gear last week, with the NASDAQ going “spot up, vol
up”. While the VIX has continued trending downward, the VXN has plainly rebounded. In
the US options market, the option skew in tech stocks (difference in implied volatility
between 1m 25-delta puts and 1m 25-delta calls) fell back steeply, all the way down to
where it stood in October 2025 (Figure 1 ). It is now near its historical low. On the
supply/demand front, quant funds’ exposure has normalized, and we note it is now close
to neutral (Figure 2 ). Quant funds had been more or less forced into buying to cover short
positions, but they seem to be nearly finished with that process now. At least where US
equities are concerned, the AI rally may now be taking a breather.
The picture of positioning in South Korean equities is more complicated. Nonresident
investors that upped their exposure to South Korean stocks during the AI rally in
September and October of last year seem to be seizing on the latest upward jump in the
market as an opportunity to sell to lock in gains (Figure 3 ). And while the market has gone
“spot up, vol up” like the NASDAQ, the call skew has come down substantially (Figure 4 ).
So we do not seem to be seeing a rise in volatility led by calls. It is difficult to determine
whether the net selling of South Korean equities by nonresident investors should be seen
as bearish, or whether it should actually be interpreted as a bullish sign in that it creates
room for investors to add to their long positions. The present macroeconomic landscape
deserves a look. For as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked (with the US and
Iran seemingly still at odds on the terms of a truce), it may make sense to assume that AI-
driven market conditions will have even more staying power. Crowding in US equities is a
genuine worry that cannot be ignored, but for now we think the reversal indicator to watch
is whether we see resurgent FOMO in South Korean equities. One risk to keep an eye on
is the possibility of central banks worldwide becoming more hawkish in response to
renewed inflation fears. The event premium assigned to the US CPI reading due out this
week (on the 12th) is still low (Figure 5 ).
US investors bullish on AI / The AI rally and value / Value factor still outperforming
within the universe of domestic demand stocks
US investors remain bullish on the AI-driven market (Figure 6 ). The disparity in sentiment
between the US and other regions is also affecting stock selection in the Japanese equity
market. During the reversal-driven market of Nov–Dec 2025, Japanese stocks with high
US ownership held up well, while those with high European ownership underperformed
even more than they had been up to that point. Stocks with high US ownership ratios
seem to be relatively resistant to reversal risk (Figure 7 , Figure 8 ). That said, it is likely
that the market would become value-driven again in the event of a full-fledged reversal.
Since last year, the market has settled into a consistent pattern in which value performs
poorly when tech stocks are driving market gains, but then undergoes a revival once those
tech-led gains run out of steam (Figure 9 ). Of course, there is no way to pin down when
the AI rally might come to a stopping point. So we find it useful to instead consider a value
tilt within the universe of domestic demand stocks (a long position in domestic demand
stocks with a high B/P and a short position in domestic demand stocks with a low B/P).
This strategy is currently still outperforming slightly, just as it did last Sep–Oct (Figure 10 ).
AI stocks and semiconductor stocks are by and large external demand picks, as are
stocks most subject to supply chain risks arising from the situation in the Middle East. The
underlying trend, it seems, is that investors have maintained a preference for value in
Japanese equities after external demand stocks have been filtered out.
Research Analysts
Macro Strategy / Quantitative
Strategy
Yoshitaka Suda - NSL
@
+65 6433 6674
Note:
Unless expressly stated otherwise,
mentions of the exposure or
positioning of various investor
classes are estimates derived from
Nomura’s model, and are not actual,
measured figures.
This report was authored by an
employee of a Nomura affiliate and
reviewed and published by Nomura
Securities.
See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts.
Market recoveries and reversals following supply chain shocks / A normalized
situation in the strait could prompt a rerating of stocks hurt by the war in Iran
If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, stocks that had been lagging due
to the concerns over what is happening in the Middle East may get bought up as investors
take a fresh look at them. The return spread between losers and winners in the context of
the war in Iran has started to narrow, but it is not even halfway to closing yet (losers and
winners here defined as the bottom 20% and top 20% of the TOPIX 500 by share price
returns between 27 February and 7 April 2026; see Figure 11 ). It is worth looking at what
has happened at the time of previous supply chain shocks. Probably the most instructive
example is that of the 2025 tariff shock, when—like now—the market swiftly pivoted from
an initial sell-off to an assumption that President Trump would back down (the TACO
trade). In that instance, the return spread between the losers and the winners of the tariff
shock fully closed about two months after the stock index itself had fully recovered. In the
case of the 2020 pandemic shock, the return spread between the losers and winners was
mostly erased by about six months after the index fully recovered.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 presents a considerably different story. In the wake
of that supply shock, the return spread between the losers and the winners stopped
narrowing at around the halfway point. Crude oil prices gradually settled down after initially
jumping when the invasion began, but economic growth momentum continued to weaken
as central banks worldwide moved to raise interest rates (Figure 12 ). So this 2022
example differs from what we saw in 2020 and 2025 in that there was no stock market
rally accompanied by a recovery in economic growth momentum. The losers in the context
of the Ukraine conflict were mostly external demand stocks (median domestic sales
weighting of 37%), while the winners were mostly domestic demand stocks (median
domestic sales weighting of 84%). This disparity seems to explain why the return spread
failed to narrow more than it did. In the present case, there is again a risk that the
narrowing of the return spread will stall if the situation in the Middle East leads to a global
economic slowdown.
Upward revision to the targeted level of the Nikkei 225 / European investors not
flocking back to the flight from USD assets / If the Nikkei 225 drops below 61,500,
CTAs could start cutting their long exposure and dealer gamma could flip short
The Nikkei 225 started off this week by breaking above 63,000 at one point on Monday.
That gain seems to have been at least somewhat supported by fundamentals, judging
from the concentration of index constituents. The targeted level for the Nikkei 225 based
on analysts’ target prices has worked its way up from the 60,000–61,000 range as of late
February to over 66,000 now (Figure 13 ). As to why this has continued to rise even after
the outbreak of the war in Iran, one must point out that the top 5% of stocks by index
weighting have by themselves been responsible for about 5,000 points of the rise. Most
notable among these are AI-related stocks that are relatively unaffected by the situation in
the Middle East.
Investor sentiment looks unchanged for the most part. European investors are not
showing much interest in resuming the flight from USD assets. Among speculators, macro
hedge funds are taking a wait-and-see approach to both US equities and Japanese
equities. CTAs are adding to their long exposure to Japanese equities, although only
slightly (Figure 14 ). We would expect CTAs to start downsizing their aggregate net long
position if there were a fall below 61,500. Also below 61,500, market makers' gamma
exposure becomes increasingly likely to flip from long to short (Figure 15 ). However, if the
call skew rallies more forcefully amid sustained stock market gains, market makers could
find themselves with short gamma exposure even as share prices continue rising.
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
2
Reference figures
Fig. 1: Option skew in US tech stocks
Sharp decline to around the level seen in October 2025
Note: Simple average skew based on one-month forward implied volatility for each of the constituents of the Technology
Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). Skew calculated as spread between puts and calls divided by at-the-money price. Latest
value shown as a white circle.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Fig. 2: Equity quant funds and semiconductor-related stocks
Potential for further SOX gains short covering much smaller now
Note: SOX index used as the performance measure for semiconductor-related stocks. Chart plots excess returns over the S&P 500. Exposure is estimated using trailing two-
month performance.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
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Fig. 3: Performance of South Korean stocks vs the flow of funds from nonresident
investors
Nonresident investors selling to lock in profits after sharp rise in share prices
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Fig. 4: KOSPI 200 share price returns vs call skew
We still see potential for more FOMO
Note: Call skew calculated as the implied volatility of call options at the 15 delta divided by the implied volatility of call
options at the 35 delta (the 50 delta is at the money, with options becoming increasingly out of the money the further the
delta is from 50).
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
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Fig. 5: US CPI event premium
Event premium plainly lower than it was during the 2022 stagflationary phase
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Fig. 6: Flow of funds into and out of AI-related ETFs (lhs: global overall; rhs: listed in the US vs listed elsewhere)
In the US, money has continued to flow in, but Europe and other regions have seen outflows
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
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Fig. 7: Performance of AI-related and semiconductor-related stocks in Nov–Dec 2025 versus European and US investor
ownership ratios
During the reversal-driven market of Nov–Dec 2025, stocks with high European ownership underperformed, while those with high US ownership held up
well
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Fig. 8: Excess return on AI/semiconductor-related stocks (categorized by US & European investor ownership ratios)
Stocks with high US ownership ratios have continued to outperform
Note: Stocks with US ownership ratios of at least 25% are counted as stocks high US ownership ratios; stocks with European ownership ratios of at least 15% are counted as
stocks with high European ownership ratios.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
6
Fig. 9: Japanese equities: Excess return on AI-related and semiconductor-related
stocks vs the value factor
Value factor underperformance has been the flipside of the tech-led market gains; value tends to see a
revival when tech stocks stop gaining
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Fig. 10: Excess return on high-B/P stocks within the TOPIX 500 universes of domestic
demand stocks and external demand stocks
During the tech-led market phases of Sep-Oct 2025 and now, value stocks have underperformed
substantially within the universe of external demand stocks, but have continued to find favor within the
universe of domestic demand stocks.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
7
Fig. 11: Stock index performance following supply chain shocks vs the return spread between winners and losers
Return spread between the winners and losers amid the Iran conflict has started narrowing, but is not even halfway to being erased. A useful reference
point may be the may be the recovery that followed the tariff shock, when there was similarly an expectation that President Trump would back down (the
TACO trade). At that time, the return spread fully recovered about two months after the index itself fully recovered.
Note: Universes are the TOPIX 500 constituents in the bottom 20% or top 20% by share price returns. Share price returns are in principle calculated for the period from the stock
index high to the stock index low over the span bracketing the shock. However, for the present Iran conflict, we use the day prior to the 8 April 2026 ceasefire agreement as the
endpoint, while for last year’s tariff shock we use the day prior to the 9 April 2025 initial tariff hike postponement as the endpoint.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Fig. 12: Economic cycles based on global manufacturing PMI
Economic momentum rebounded quickly after the initial COVID-19 pandemic shock and after the tariff
shock; with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, in contrast, the global economic slowdown continued even after
the market for crude oil normalized
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
8
Fig. 13: Bottom-up price target for the Nikkei 225 based on analyst forecasts
Target prices essentially functioning as an overhead resistance line
Note: Based on 12-month forward target prices for Nikkei 225 constituent stocks.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Fig. 14: Estimates of CTAs’ speculative position two weeks later for a range of Nikkei
225 readings one week later
Note: We estimate CTAs' "natural" position after two weeks based on share price levels after one week. CTAs’ speculative
positions are relative to the historical peaks in both long and short positions since 2000 (peak = 100). "Natural" position is
our estimate of how CTAs' aggregate net position would change over the next four weeks if the spot price were to remain
constant. Data current through 8 May 2026.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
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Fig. 15: Dealers’ gamma exposure in the Nikkei 225 options market (estimated)
Note: Estimates of how dealers’ gamma position changes as price of underlying asset changes, covering all unexpired call
and put options. The gamma flip is the price of the underlying asset at which dealers’ gamma position flips from positive to
negative or vice versa.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
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Appendix: CTAs' speculative positions
Fig. 16: Estimates of CTAs’ speculative positions in major asset classes
Note: “Natural” position is our estimate of how CTAs’ aggregate net position would change over the next four weeks if the spot price were to remain constant. Current as of 8
May 2026.
Source: Nomura, based on Bloomberg data
Previous installments in this report series:
27 Apr:
Nomura Quant Insights - 18 straight days of gains for the SOX, short covering by quant
funds
20 Apr:
Nomura Quant Insights - Spot up, vol up: Potential for a call skew rebound
13 Apr:
Nomura Quant Insights - The inconvenient truth behind the improvement in risk sentiment
6 Apr:
Nomura Quant Insights - Sustained high crude oil prices and nonresident investors'
preference for value
30 Mar:
Nomura Quant Insights - Energy supply shock putting a stop to flight from USD;
European investors selling Japanese equities
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
11
Appendix A-1
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subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of my compensation is tied to any specific investment
banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.
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such as listed securities documents or documents delivered before making a contract.
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
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transaction amount. Also, a direct cost that may be incurred when selling investment trusts is a fee of up to % of the unit price at the time of
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performance. Other indirect costs may also be incurred. For foreign investment trusts, indirect fees may be incurred during the course of holding
such as investment company compensation.
Investment trusts invest mainly in securities such as Japanese and foreign equities and bonds, whose prices fluctuate. Investment trust unit
prices fluctuate owing to price fluctuations in the underlying assets and to foreign exchange rate fluctuations. As such, investment trusts carry
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materials provided, such as prospectuses or documents delivered before making a contract.
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payments shall be made on the settlement dates. Some interest rate swap transactions, etc. may require pledging of margin collateral. In some
of these cases, transaction payments may exceed the amount of collateral. There shall be no advance notification of required collateral value or
collateral ratios as they vary depending on the transaction. Interest rate swap transactions, etc. carry the risk of losses owing to fluctuations in
market prices in the interest rate, currency and other markets, as well as reference indices. Losses incurred as such may exceed the value of
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the financial position of the protection buyer. CDS transactions carry the risk of losses owing to changes in the credit position of some or all of
the referenced entities, and/or fluctuations of the interest rate market. The amount the protection buyer receives in the event that the CDS is
triggered by a credit event may undercut the total amount of premiums that he/she has paid in the course of the transaction. Similarly, the
amount the protection seller pays in the event of a credit event may exceed the total amount of premiums that he/she has received in the
transaction. All other conditions being equal, the amount of premiums that the protection buyer pays and that received by the protection seller
shall differ. In principle, CDS transactions will be limited to financial instruments business operators and qualified institutional investors.
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Nomura Securities Co., Ltd.
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Additional information regarding the methodologies or models used in the production of any investment recommendations contained
within this document is available upon request by contacting the Research Analysts of Nomura listed on the front page. Disclosures
Nomura | Nomura Quant Insights 11 May 2026
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information is available upon request and disclosure information is available at the Nomura Disclosure web page:
Copyright © 2026 Nomura Singapore Ltd., Singapore. All rights reserved.
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