Markets 市场
Hedge Funds Reopen Pre-War Playbook
as Iran War Risks Recede
随着伊朗战争⻛险消退，对冲基⾦重启战前策
略
By Ruth Carson, Winnie Hsu, and Abhishek Vishnoi
作者：露丝·卡森、许温妮和阿⽐谢克·维什诺伊
June 15, 2026 at 2:18 PM GMT+8
Updated on 更新于June 15, 2026 at 3:00 PM GMT+8
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A ship anchored in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran, in May. Photographer:
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
5 ⽉，⼀艘船只停泊在伊朗拉拉克岛附近的霍尔⽊兹海峡。摄影师：⻢吉德·萨伊迪/盖蒂图⽚
社
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Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
彭博 AI 要点
An eclectic mix of shorter-maturity Treasuries, beaten-up
Asian currencies and even instant-noodle stocks look set to
be among the early beneficiaries of the US-Iran agreement,
according to global hedge fund managers.
据全球对冲基⾦经理称，由短期国债、遭重挫的亚洲货币甚⾄
⽅便⾯股组成的多元化组合，似乎将成为美伊协议的早期受益
者。
As fast-money investors dust off their pre-war playbooks,
Florida-based Grey Value Management sees value in shorter-
dated US government bonds as does Reed Capital Partners
in Singapore, which is also buying the yen. Vantage Point
Asset Management says beaten-down Southeast Asian stocks
may outperform.
随着热钱投资者重拾战前的投资策略，总部位于佛罗⾥达州的
Grey Value Management 认为短期美国国债具有投资价值，新
加坡的 Reed Capital Partners 也持相同观点，并正在买⼊⽇
元。Vantage Point Asset Management 表⽰，遭重挫的东南亚
股市表现可能优于⼤盘。
Thomas Hayes, chairman of hedge fund Great Hill Capital in
New York, is looking for a chance to buy US consumer
stocks as confidence recovers.
纽约对冲基⾦ Great Hill Capital 的董事长托马斯·海耶斯正伺
机买⼊美国消费类股票，因为市场信⼼正在恢复。
0:000:00 / 4:49/ 4:49
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“With inflation expectations subsiding on the back of the
deal, the play is to go ‘back to the future’ with what worked
in January or February — before the war,” said Hayes, whose
firm oversees more than $1 billion.
“随着协议达成后通胀预期有所缓解，当前的策略是‘回到未
来’，重拾⼀⽉或⼆⽉——即战争爆发前——⾏之有效的策略，”
管理着逾 10 亿美元资产的海耶斯表⽰。
The peace deal between the US and Iran, which will be
signed on Friday, removes a major overhang for global
markets after months of fighting triggered the biggest
disruption to oil supply in history and stoked inflation
concerns around the globe. Crude dropped on Monday,
fueling a rally in stocks and bonds, while the dollar fell as
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demand for the world’s ultimate haven subsided.
美国与伊朗将于周五签署的和平协议，消除了全球市场的⼀⼤
隐忧。此前数⽉的冲突引发了史上最严重的⽯油供应中断，并
加剧了全球通胀担忧。周⼀，原油价格下跌，推动股市和债市
上涨；与此同时，随着市场对这⼀终极避险资产的需求减弱，
美元汇率⾛低。
Treasuries rose across the curve on Monday as a decline in
crude prices prompted traders to pare back expectations of
Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.
周⼀，随着油价下跌促使交易员下调对美联储加息的预期，美
国国债收益率曲线各期限的收益率普遍上升。
For Chauwei Yak, chief executive officer at GAO Capital Pte
in Singapore, the winners are likely to include companies in
Asia.
对于新加坡 GAO Capital Pte ⾸席执⾏官 Chauwei Yak ⽽⾔，
获益者很可能包括亚洲的企业。
Asian stocks have been hard hit by the US-Iran war given
that the region’s major economies are oil importers. Equity
benchmarks in India and Indonesia are among the world’s
worst performers this year, while the two nations’
currencies have fallen to record lows.
鉴于该地区主要经济体均为⽯油进⼜国，亚洲股市在美伊冲突
中遭受重创。印度和印度尼西亚的股指今年表现位居全球垫
底，⽽两国货币汇率也已跌⾄历史最低点。
“We can re-evaluate some companies that would have been
impacted by oil prices if the war dragged on into the
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summer, for example instant noodles with their
dependence on palm oil,” Yak said.
“如果战争持续到夏季，我们可以重新评估⼀些原本会受到油
价影响的公司，例如对棕榈油依赖较⼤的⽅便⾯企业，”雅克
说道。
While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of equities has risen more
than 7% since the war began, technology has been the only
sector posting gains, while the other 10 industry groups
have declined.
尽管⾃战争爆发以来，MSCI 亚太股票指数已上涨逾 7%，但科
技板块是唯⼀实现上涨的板块，其余 10 个⾏业板块均出现下
跌。
“Themes that are structurally supported” include
beneficiaries of AI buildout and renewable energy, said
Ecaterina Bigos of BNP Paribas Asset Management, which
oversees more than trillion euros ($ trillion) in assets
globally. Bigos is chief investment officer who advises on
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long-short strategies for Asia ex-Japan core investments at
the firm.
“具有结构性⽀撑的主题”包括⼈⼯智能基础设施建设及可再⽣
能源领域的受益者，法国巴黎银⾏资产管理公司（BNP
Paribas Asset Management）的埃卡特⾥娜·⽐⼽斯
（Ecaterina Bigos）表⽰。该公司在全球管理着超过 万亿
欧元（ 万亿美元）的资产。⽐⼽斯担任⾸席投资官，负责
为该公司亚洲（除⽇本）核⼼投资组合提供多空策略建议。
Nick Ferres from Vantage is among those who sees
opportunities in Southeast Asian equities that have sold off
heavily amid the Iran conflict.
Vantage 公司的尼克·费雷斯是那些认为在伊朗冲突期间遭遇重
挫的东南亚股市中存在投资机会的⼈⼠之⼀。
“There is perhaps an opportunity in ‘unloved’ markets that
have underperformed — Southeast Asia — although investors
are likely to remain focused on the dominant theme, AI and
AI enablers,” said Ferres, who is chief investment officer.
“在表现⽋佳的‘不受青睐’的市场——东南亚——或许存在机遇，
尽管投资者很可能仍会将⽬光聚焦于主导主题，即⼈⼯智能及
其相关技术，”⾸席投资官费雷斯表⽰。
Cryptocurrencies rose, with Bitcoin climbing to a near two-
week high after recently plunging to its lowest level since
Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory. However, crypto
traders remained cautious as they awaited clearer signs that
the conflict had truly ended. Even after the rebound, Bitcoin
was still down about 48% from its record high reached last
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October.
加密货币价格上涨，⽐特币升⾄近两周⾼点，此前该币种曾暴
跌⾄唐纳德·特朗普 2024 年⼤选获胜以来的最低点。不过，加
密货币交易员仍持谨慎态度，等待冲突真正结束的更明确信
号。即便经过反弹，⽐特币价格较去年 10 ⽉创下的历史⾼点
仍下跌了约 48%。
“We spent a part of our cash holdings into crypto, mainly
crypto-AI projects, over the weekend,” said Richard Galvin,
executive chairman at crypto investment firm DACM. “But
we remain somewhat cautious as Iran and US haven’t signed
the final peace deal yet.”
“上周末，我们将部分现⾦储备投⼊了加密货币领域，主要集
中在加密货币与⼈⼯智能相关的项⽬上，”加密货币投资公司
DACM 的执⾏董事长理查德·加尔⽂表⽰。“但鉴于伊朗和美国
尚未签署最终和平协议，我们仍保持⼀定程度的谨慎。”
Macro Bets 宏观押注
Meanwhile, hedge funds say the outlook and bets for
currency and bond markets are more nuanced.
与此同时，对冲基⾦表⽰，对于外汇和债券市场的前景及投资
策略，情况则更为复杂。
Matthew Haupt of Wilson Asset Management, which
oversees more than A$6 billion ($ billion), is among those
buying global bonds.
管理着超过 60 亿澳元（43 亿美元）资产的威尔逊资产管理公
司（Wilson Asset Management）的马修·豪普特（Matthew
Haupt）是正在买⼊全球债券的投资者之⼀。
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“Long rates make a lot of sense,” said the hedge fund
manager in Sydney. “Central banks can now be less
hawkish.”
“长期利率的⾛势很有道理，”这位悉尼的对冲基⾦经理表⽰。
“央⾏现在可以采取不太鹰派的⽴场。”
Over in Palm Beach Gardens, Steven Grey says he is
“cautiously optimistic” about the latest developments and
that shorter-maturity US notes appear better valued.
在棕榈滩花园，史蒂⽂·格雷表⽰，他对最新动态持“谨慎乐观”
态度，并认为短期美国国债的估值似乎更具吸引⼒。
Treasury two-year yields fell six basis points to % on
Monday, while those on benchmark 10-year notes dropped
five basis points to %.
周⼀，美国国债两年期收益率下跌 6 个基点，⾄ %；基准
10 年期国债收益率则下跌 5 个基点，⾄ %。
“With the 10-year note offering only about 40 basis points
more than the two-year, we see no reason to reach further
out in the calendar — or further down in credit quality — for
yield,” said the chief investment officer at Grey Value
Management.
“鉴于 10 年期国债的收益率仅⽐ 2 年期国债⾼出约 40 个基
点，我们认为没有必要为了追求更⾼收益率⽽将投资期限拉
长，或降低信⽤评级，”Grey Value Management ⾸席投资官
表⽰。
The dollar, on the other hand, is losing its appeal among
some hedge funds as demand for the reserve currency
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wanes along with the easing of geopolitical risks.
另⼀⽅⾯，随着地缘政治风险的缓解，市场对这种储备货币的
需求正在减弱，美元在部分对冲基⾦中的吸引⼒也在下降。
Bloomberg’s dollar gauge retreated as much as % on
Monday, with riskier emerging-market currencies among the
biggest winners against the greenback. The yen, which has
been punished in part because of Japan’s heavy reliance on
imported energy, has regained some fans.
周⼀，彭博美元指数⼀度下跌 %，风险较⾼的新兴市场货
币成为对美元表现最亮眼的货币之⼀。⽇元此前因⽇本⾼度依
赖能源进⼜⽽承压，如今已重新赢得部分投资者的青睐。
“We are buying the yen, positioning for both a potentially
overvalued dollar and also structurally positive outlook on
Japan’s currency,” said Gerald Gan, chief investment officer
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bbg://screens/WCRS%20SR%20BASKET%3A7%201%20USD
at Reed Capital, which oversees $600 million.
“我们正在买⼊⽇元，既是为了应对美元可能出现的估值过
⾼，也是基于对⽇元基本⾯前景的乐观预期，”管理着 6 亿美
元资产的 Reed Capital ⾸席投资官杰拉尔德·⽢表⽰。
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